Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 6 Preview

of nerves during this. Mitch said to me, will the volume of the Dodger game be on anywhere in your properties? I said, well, wherever I am. I'm not sure where I'll be, but it's sure it's gonna be on wherever I am. You mean Tampa Philly is not going to be your priority of mind? Cannot be. I might not

see too many players of that game today. And and by the way, Mike Palm also the co host of odds on on Visa and the Sports Betting Network of course with them all Shaw weekdays eleven am Pacific, two pm, Easter right in the East. The Life from Circus. After this, you race over there, run sprint dead stript So you see Mikey underneath the zip line sprinting, Uh, Todd wishing him from his mom's cork addic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Star Up, Showtimes,

docuseries Action. How you doing, Toddy? Hey, he's not happy. He's not happy. Okay, we'll just leave it at that. Some people are gonna appreciate that you just went. Hey, and ladies and gentlemen, this is a This is an annual treat. We hope to make it an annual treat. He was kind enough to come on last year as well. This megapod Is is the mountain that it is because it was built on this man's shoulders. We know him as Ace, We know his him as as Jannie or

Johnny pardon me, however he's pronouncing it these days. Uh, And of course we know him as vr Vegas runner. Ace. How you doing? Man? Never better? All are the ball? All proper pronouns. I'm good with either or so we're good. Just help yourself there. We're good to go, and thank you for having me again. This is that one show, the NFL show, honestly, even not on it, that I listened to every week like consistently, not not stroking you because I'm on here, but the information you share it

just keeps you up to date and it's current. And because I'm in the sports betting industry, you have to be current. And again we take it for granted being in Vegas Point spreads all that, like other cities just don't like that. So to have something like this to depend on weekly where I know that's what you guys do. You're in the grind all day, every day, not just doing this once a week or for certain season. Again, man, I'm just happy to be a part of it and

humbled and privileged to be here. Brother. Hopefully I got some winners for the for the listeners and viewers, hopefully got some winners. There's also there's also VR bingo, where people are like never better, blah blah blah, Sprinkle, what a country, what a country? God less Samerica? All your old things people, those things live on. Man. I still get tweets from people who, again when they heard that you were on today, already got a couple of tweets

about it. But but but Sprinkle, people still remember that you were the guy that, uh that made these things famous and we uh we Appreciate podcast. We originated sprinkling sorry for a decade ago, Gil, Well, over a decade ago. Now it's in the sports betting Lexica. Everybody uses it. It's awesome, it's it's a beautiful thing, a beautiful thing. Yeah. We used to throw that E forty music behind it too, was awesome. Um, great to have you, man. Let's do it so so we always start with an update from

Mike on the Circum Millions contest and the reds. Okay, we'll do the records first. Pardon me, what are what were the records last week? We always do the records first, Gilly, That's what we always Sorry, I'm sorry, okay, uh, and I have a maye of culpa. I have a may culpa it Uh. Mikey pulls in the first place with uh his eight six and one. He was one one in one last week because I went oh and three. He goes ahead of me. I'm seven and eight now he's eight six and one, and you, Gilly, are pulling

up the rear at five and ten. What did I do? One and two? Yeah, one and two on the teaser side, I'm still in the lead at five and oh, Gilly, you're four oh and one because you pushed one of your legs last week and the Patriots. I think, oh, that's true. I did push him. Yeah, okayo, and Mike is three and two on teasers, so really, I mean the only important thing is how you're doing on teasers, because no one would bet these games pre game anyways,

So it's teasers, is what's important. I would like to go and I'll ask Gill as well. I'd like to go last on teasers. I have two games behind you, and I can't catch up when you keep copying mine. So I'd like to go after you. And that's funny because if I keep topping you, how my five and and oh and three and that you were four and oh I was to to I gave a teaser you copyy that I can never catch you. Try again? Come on, you could do better than that. Should I just call

you email? I'll just call you okay? Um anyways, No, I'm sorry that that was too low. I retracted. Um My mayor is I thought the Raiders would not be affected by the first email and would play National Football League football and I took them in my Survivor And this will go into our next discussion that you're gonna bring up a survivor and I paid for it, especially when that kid dropped the sixty five yard bomb wide

open and it was just not the raider's day. So I am out of Survivor, and I guess I will learn to not take a team that has email problems prior to the game. I still contend that Urban Meyer and his team, you know, it's not affected by his lap dances. But anyways, go ahead, Well, survivors a whole another discussion. But let me just say this that the fact that Minnesota, New England, and Baltimore all survived miraculously last week is such a testament to how difficult this

stuff is to be. That's just to pick one team to win regardless of spread. That's what you're tasked with every weekend Survivor. That's difficult enough to pick. Let's say in circle millions five against the spread every week and somebody's twenty two and three three. God, you know, the records were going to be better by the sheer number of entrants, right that had m But this is five guys eighteen and two, two and three. I don't know

how long it can keep up. I mean you and I are looking at the board trying to find three games not right, E slops the board. We struggled a couple So how many people didn't submit in millions? I don't know about me. It's it's getting better, getting better. And really the Raiders were the only blow the fifty four. Like Todd that chose the Raiders six Panthers, one Bagels, one Jets. We still have sixty eight. But if you

brought this point up, this is this is incredible. If Minnesota doesn't kick the last second field goal, if New England doesn't rally from down sixteen, if Baltimore doesn't rally from down nineteen, we'd have to twenty nine left, one left. And you know, I thought I was such a genius for avoiding Kirk Cousins because I can't stand betting on Kirk Cousins. I thought, oh my god, I'm gonna be a genius here, and somehow Kirk Cousins gonna blow it,

and then it doesn't happen. I kept texting the whole time with Minnesota, I'm like, this is gonna end badly, even though when they were up seven or ten, it was just never felt right. I wish Todd that I had, you know, a mall on Thursday after we did this, said to me, I think Pittsburgh is really the only survivor played this weekend. I thought he was being funny and like miss guiding because he's in it. He actually used it. No, he said, Pittsburgh is not losing this

week to Denver at home. And he said, I don't want Kirk cousins. I don't want you know all this, and he may. And I wish I could have told Todd because maybe he had taken Pittsburg instead of the Raiders. I would I wouldn't have taken he was all right, So against Fields, I was betting against Fields. That's it. I just thought Fields is not going and you know what,

Field wasn't good't do anything. Yeah, it's just that the Bears ran the ball and the Raiders didn't do anything on offense, So you know what, what are you gonna do? All right? Before we get to our best bets? Three? Can I talk some more surviving please? I'd like to actually you can talk survivor, And I'd like to ask you this question because you talked about miss Name Miss

Named contest. You've also talked about you don't really try to survive until you get five or six weeks in and then you start only try to I mean you don't, yeah, Corect, I'm sorry mistaking. Then you get into it. Is this the point now where you try to use the winner strategy instead of the survivor because the last three weeks you've been surviving with a consensus pick. Yeah, but I also think that the there's been a little bit of a mix of both because I have taken so the

first two weeks I took good teams. Yeah, but you took some chances early well, I had multiple entries. On the multiple entries, I took the chances, which again is my theory that the multiple entries don't matter, it's just the one that you would play openly. So the one that I was left with was the one that I played Tampa Bay the first week. I lost all my other entries with the more random picks. I've only played Tampa Bay and Green Bay good like really solid teams,

top ten power ranked teams in that entry. The rest of it so far is Carolina, Cincinnati, UH, Minnesota. And I think I'm playing with that theme. I'm gonna think I'm gonna go Indianapolis again this week, and that way if I get through, and that's a big if with Indianapoles, even though they're a big favorite, I really do think that that entry becomes pretty solid because I've I've used at least four kind of random teams and I still have a bunch of top tenors left. So I think

I'm going to Indianapolis just to call my shot now. Um, I think that's how I'm going because I've already used Tampa Bay and I can use the Rams later, and I think this is the time to use the Colts because I'm in the end. I'm playing. That was my second that was my second mayicle. But um, Carson Wentz, Frank Greig. I always like Frank Greig, but I thought even Frank Gregg can't rehabilitate this idiot Wentz. But he actually looked good on Monday nights, so I have to say,

you know, I mean, he looked good once. So let you don't don't you don't need to get to the may but just yet, all right, before we get our best bets Ace, any thoughts on tonight's game? Are you betting the Tampa Bay Philly game? Anyway? I've been to over fifty two and I leave Philadelphia, I haven't gotten to the window yet. I'm hoping he gets the seven and a half. That's why I haven't. And I'm even

considering sprinkling a little bit on the money line. And here's why we have a winless home team in Philadelphia there oh and two. And I've gone back and Philadelpia has had a pretty good home field advantage. I mean even going back when they finished in last place and they were a six and two team at home. So the winless so far, I think that gives you a

little bit of incentive. You don't want to keep losing there obviously, uh, coupled with Tampa Bay a little bit of over value I think coming into this one, the over seems so square obviously, um, but just all the metrics point to that. Signed you have two offenses that are top ten in yards per play and two defenses that are in the bottom ten and points allowed, that's like the perfect storm to see over fifty two and

again sounds square as anything. Um But if I've learned one thing being here as long as I have in the NFL, you can't just play contrary and the goals try to get ahead of the market and hopefully have some good luck as well. And I think the Eagles tonight may have that. If Jail and Hurt gets it going and could distribute the ball and not try to you know, be not leading the team in rushing yards and in everything and gets the rest of uh, I

think they could create some problems for Tampa Bay. So for me, I like the over, and I'm trying to get their window on the Birds too, and maybe a sprinkle on the money line the sprint calls defend it if I take the seven. The sprinkles for sure? Is that is that one of your three? No? No, I I wouldn't use it as a as a like a best bet. I did back it with my that's an opinion. I backed with my money. I will say that, um,

but I wouldn't call it the best bet. And I want to try to do that for the show because I fired. I said, I like this week, win or lose. I keep it real. I'm down this year going into this week. I'm down in college football. I'm down in NFL for a year to date one, um, but you know, long term, over the last four NFL bets, I've gotten lucky. I guess I'm profitable, so I'm hoping that it continues going forward. But again, I haven't been winning this season,

but I feel confident in this week. Take it how you will, You'll get those better beds. No, no shame and no shame in being down this thus far through the season. Todd or mikey any uh any thoughts on tonight at all? Uh? I lean over just because I think this. You know, the secondary is so bad at Tampa Um even though Hurts isn't the most accurate passer. I think Philadelphia will score tonight, and I'm gonna tease them. Uh tease Tampa Bay in this spot here, because I

don't think they're losing. Let me ask you this, Ace. You went back to two thousand, fifteen or sixteen with the Eagles in their home record in general in the NFL? Has it home field advantage dissipated between that time and now one I used to think standard was three points, and now I'm hard pressed to give two points. I agree one one percent, and I'm not sure if the markets caught up with that. I don't. I don't think so.

So I think you're right there. There is that loss of value from that perspective as far as home field advantage goes, But I kind of weigh it with that they haven't won there yet, and I know the deuce it the dude doesn't work in sports betting. Um. But again, you're even bad teams managed to win a home game, like you should be able to the red should like you should have even some good luck, like even bad cole should go your way. So again, you don't want

to depend on not to cash a ticket. Um. But it's just hard for me to see a Philadelphia team that's close to five hundred on the season and just winless at home for that trend to continue. I don't know, it's it's difficult to continue seeing that happen. By the way, last week, Tom Brady against Miami thirty of forty one for four eleven, five touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked two times. It's his eighth career game with five touchdowns

and no picks, the most ever in the NFL. His first career game at the age of forty four with four hundred plus yards and five touchdowns. They outscored Miami twenty one and nothing in the fourth quarter tonight, sore thumb but he says he's a go. Tom Brady says, no big deal, he's gonna play. But they don't have Rob Gronkowski, they don't have ants on winfield. There's some others they're missing. Tampa Bay is not at full strength tonight. Anything from Utah on that, I'm probably going to use

the bucks in my teaser. I'm surprised that A said that the Eagles were top ten in yards per play. If that is true, they are the most pagazy to up ten I've ever seen in my entire life. Um, they played Atlantas exactly tenants offensively, and that's fine. All I'm gonna say is I think it's phaghazy because they played at Atlanta and they moved the ball. Very nice. Tip your hat. Everyone moves the ball in Atlanta. Thank you. San Francisco. They played at home, didn't do Jack squad

on offense. At Dallas. They got a lot of garbage yards. That's going into that garbage number. You know, they got a ton of garbage yards. At the end of the game. They were completely blown out. In Kansas City. Everybody moves the ball in Kansas City. Me, Gil and Mike and you playing white out to move the ball in Kansas City, so that throw that out. And then last week at Carolina they didn't do anything. They blocked upon at the end of the game and got lucky. So to me,

the Eagles. No. By the way, that being said, I I don't disagree with you that the Eagles could win the game and the game could go over. Obviously, all I'm saying is I think that to think that that the Eagles are the top ten offensive team in football is just not fair because as you can see, a lot of this is phaghazy. But with that said, I'll take the bucks as part of my um my teaser later. But anyways, Neat, you'll never catch him. You'll never catch him in teasers. As soon as I said it, he

wants I have full disclosure. Here's the new thing. You see where we're going to, the new narrative, Gilly. You see the new narrative, the Mikey Palm. He starts playing laying the Seeds, Mr No hyper Bowl, the Steeler of the Grievances, Gentile Grievancesances, Grievances. The I have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tied into Last Monday Night's Baltimore Ravens teaser leg which was never in doubt got completely lucky with it. But that's what I have as a Tampa Bay teaser like.

I'm not sure if I'm going to use it moving forward. We'll see where we get to. That best bets are top three. Let's start with our first ace. What is your number one spread or totals bets sir that I'm going to have to go split the Monday night, abolutely loved the Buffalo Bills. I jumped on them immediately and laid the five. And this has come from experience, meaning back in the day, I would have never bet a team like Buffalo in this spot. They've scored thirty plus

points three straight weeks. They've outperformed the betting market by double digits four straight weeks. That tells me from everything I know that you're gonna be overvalued, that the betting market is going to add a premium, that if I bade you, I am certain I'm getting more points than I should. And long term, that's the best you could ever hope for as a sports Better doesn't guarantee you're cashing a ticket that night, but guarantees you're gonna be profitable.

Long term if you manage risk correctly. Um, With all of that said, I have seen certain outliers. I bet long enough that's have seen certain outliers. And there are some teams in the regular season that when they get going, they're gonna just continue to steam roll opponents. I saw Kansas City do it, I've seen Seattle do it, and now we're seeing Buffalo do it. And back in the day, I got in front of those trains and all I did was lose money, thinking I was getting the best

of it. When I found out looking back, I was taking the worst of it because they were outperforming the betting market continued to do so, so they proved the betting market wrong. Yes, it's efficient, it's as efficient as it gets, but it's still we know, historically ten points off the closing line when it's all said and done. And I think this is one of those teams that we're they're gonna get sharp money fading them. So that's

gonna eliminate some of the risk for the books. But the public is gonna roll on this team and gonna keep cashing tickets, and I'm not gonna stand in front of it. I'm gonna roll on top of them. That's what I've learned betting. As long as I have that, sometimes you gotta put those old school, you know, rules of the side and realize things change and you gotta, you know, be able to adapt. So for me, I saw that immediately, and I'm like, that's a game where

I would have been all over Tennessee. I would have been certain I got the best of it. So that's why I'm not even going into metrics or any of that on this game. It's simply reasoning, and for me, like it doesn't make it any more simpler than that. Yes, this team is probably gonna be favored more than we think they should, and they're still gonna go out there and cover even though Sharks think fading them has given them the best of it. Because I've seen, like I said,

I've seen New England do it. I've seen Kansas City do it. I've seen Seattle do it during the regular season, and I'm watching Buffalo do it in real time and I'm not going to fade that. And you learn from history or you fail, you know you're doomed to repeat it. And I paid a lot for my education. I've got a Harvard education, an Ivy League education, the amount of money I've lost to learn how to win, and I'm

not losing any more fading teams like Buffalo. It's it's an interesting thing that the game has so evolved since you and I used to do this megapod back in the day. It is such a and from a betting perspective, for sure, the most interesting Buffalo stad. I don't know if it's the most interesting, but it is an interesting one to me. And they sort of flashed this up quickly the other night when they were crushing Kansas City during the lightning delay. Buffalo has led it halftime in

fourteen straight regular season games. Now, when you hear that, you're like, that's interesting. That's an NFL record that's never happened before. Fourteen to thirty minutes of football. It's one thing to be tied, right, but to lead by the half in fourteen consecutive games is also perhaps another way

to bet the Buffalo Bills. If if that you're such a big favorite though, to win the game, if you go into a half with the lead, I mean we know that historically, so I mean they're doing everything right. It's just as if they're grasping analytics, like somebody's teams seem to be grasping it quicker than others. They know, if you jump on your opponent, it it puts you in a higher probability of winning. If you take a lead,

it puts you in a higher probability of winning. So you see these coaches devising these game plans to jump on opponents, and some teams have been able to do it. We saw Kansas City do it and have such success with it, and Buffalo is copying that same blueprint offensively. And it seems to me like their defenses come around now because they posted two shutouts in the last four weeks. So again, it's just a team. I don't want to

get him run up. Even if they lose this game, there's no reason to fade on when they're rolling like they're rolling. A lot of people have in power rated number one. I do. They were doing this at the end of last year. Remember in the last five six weeks they were blowing everybody out and mostly division games by twenty or thirty to aces point. This was one of the biggest decisions of the year at CIRCA was Sunday night. We needed Buffalo. The sharp money was all

on Kansas City. It's on Kansas City, Yes, exactly, exactly that, and little quickly start not not to go long. That's what I'm talking about. It's it's that kind of thing, and we're seeing it even with Kansas City, where now it's like, are people willing to admit that are they not as good as we think? Are they going to keep betting them? But with Buffalo, like you said, they

we're looking to fade. Then, like, wait, this team and they're too hot, they're they're winning, they're outperforming too much. They're due to regress. I don't see it. You said, they've continued it from last season as far as the metrics go. So again, they're just a dangerous team that got ahead. They're going to regress. They might not aggress

against Tennessee, well said Ace. Does it give you any pause that this was the worst spot last you remember this was the weird Tuesday night game and it was a house of horrors for them down there. Everything went wrong in Tennessee, the turnovers and they got actually by the middle of the third quarter they pulled Allen and they just gave up on the game. Remember does that?

How does that? How does that affect your handicap. Does that make you think they have that game on their mind from last year or does it make you think they're thinking about what can go wrong again. If it wasn't Monday night, I'd be a little bit concerned that they're coming off a big win and they don't have much on deck. They have winnable games I had. They have Miami, they have Jacksonville, they have the Jets, so it's nothing to really worry about coming ahead. But it's

Monday Night football. You just beat Kansas City as a dog. Everyone thought you're gonna lose that game. You need to showcase your team where if you are legit, you're supposed to show off on Monday Night. You're supposed to come out and crush this team, especially after what happened last season, gives you even more of the reason to show us things that you are now the best team in the a f C. Like this is good. This is a

telling game. Even though they're not playing a Tampa Bay, they're not playing a Green Bay, it's still a telling game because again, you're supposed to be able to win these games. Coming off a win in Kansas City. If you're a legit so for me that the Monday night, the fact they're playing on under the lights on prime time, coming off a win like that, I think gives them the motivation to keep going, to not have that potential let down against a team like Tennessee, especially, like I said,

with nothing ahead to get excited about. Key yours number one. I thought this game opened wrong with the wrong favorite with Carolina and the Vikings. I like the Vikings here, it's now Vikings one. Is that the number todd Yes, yeah, I'll lay the one here. I'd lay up to a field goal here. Um, this is like this this Sam Darno is not a winner. Okay, he's never won anywhere. He didn't win. They were bad at USC, He didn't win with the Jets. They beat the dregs of the NFL.

This first three games, right what Carolina played early with with Houston Denver dregs. But still they're similar. I mean, and you can only play. But they're not good. I mean, look, they couldn't put up any points against Philadelphia the second half last week. They had so many chances to extend the game and they and they hung around. I still think this Vikings team is a playoff team. I know it's Kirk Cousins. I know Todd doesn't like Kirk Cousins.

It's hard to trust Kirk Cousins. But look and they play if you go back and look at them in the Cousins there, and they play better on the road. On grass, they played very well. Uh, they played very well um at San Diego last year. I like this team when they get outdoors and on the grass, I think they're better. I don't think Carolina has much offensive punch here. I think the Vikings are appreciably better on offense. I can't see them losing this game really, even though

it's a it's a road spot. They gotta stay in this race. Uh, in the in the NFC North, And to me, this is clearly the best play on the board this that Vikings game for those who missed it, for those of us who had survivor will will not soon forget it. Vikings up sixteen and nine. They're trying to milk the clock. There would have been about one twenty left for the Lions to try to go downfield for a touchdown instead, and Alexander Madison fumble after they

didn't call forward progress. He gets stripped. Lions touchdown that Dan Campbell goes for two and gets it. But five plays forties six yards later in thirties seven seconds. Greg Joseph from fifty four Vikings win, what what do you make the number gill at the point that Detroit's kicking off the Minnesota with thirty seven seconds? I think it's like a pick him at that point, whether the Vikings are going to kick a fiegal? Then why do you

think the Vikings are favored to get a field goal? Oh? Dog? Well, I think they became a dog because remember they kicked it short of the goal line, and they spent six seconds only got back to the fift They played it exactly right, but then they allowed the big pass down the middle of it all. Well, the problem is they had two time outs left, which is a It's a very different game when you have thirty one seconds and two time outs versus thirty one seconds and no time outs.

That's a gigantic difference. I'm so, you know the Vikings had more chance than you would have otherwise thought, but still at the fifteen yard line, I think they're a dog. You didn't say it the fifteen I said before the kickoff, Okay, before the kickoff fair enough, but the two time outs was the huge thing because it means they can throw it over the middle a couple of times. That's huge. Obviously, it's still cut presence, and it's still Detroit. It's still Detroit,

sadly for them. Yeah, Todd, your first my first picket's very interesting. I liked what it said because I think a lot of sports gambling is always will the street continue or will the regression happen? That's a lot of what you're gonna do if you get into nitty gritty sports gambling often is what am I? You know, many most of the teams in the NFL are gonna finish between you know, seven and nine, six and ten, you know, in the sixteen games season, not in the seventeen games.

But against the spread, they're gonna be very close to the to the average most of the teams. So there are gonna be the outlier team that just steam rolls. And my pick is gonna be similar to that in the sense that I'm gonna go over fifty five and a half in the Chiefs game. Now that you you might say, well, wait to say, but the Chiefs go over every single week. So you're paying a premium to bet them over, but the thing is on the over unders.

I find it even more. I don't know if you find it even more ace, but I find it even more that they're regression often doesn't happen. A couple of years ago, I was on Guilt Show a bunch of times, uh in two thousand nineteen, and I kept hammering Tampa Bay to the over Tampa Bay, to the over Tampa Bay to the over. Jameis Winston would give you a touchdown for on his side, and their defense was horrible, and they would go over every single week, and it

didn't matter how high they made it. I think that that's what's going on with the Chiefs um in this football season, because the Chiefs are the greatest over concoction that you can create the best offense, or at least the top three offense and a defense that's worse than thirty second. I put them at thirty seven in d v o A, you know there. I put a bunch of college teams ahead of them and then their thirty seven. But the Chiefs are not a legitimate NFL defensive team,

so they're going to give up points. Tyler had Taylor Henneke is not that terrible. He can move you down the field and get your point. Look at the Eagles can get thirty points against the Chiefs and get some backdoor touchdowns. Why can't the Redskins do or the Washington football team do it? The washingt football team can do it. And you know the chief just are going to score this week week. You know they're going to score. So put mark them down for thirty eight. And how many

do I need to go over? Fifty five and a half after that? Whatever, it is, fifty five and a half minus thirty eight, that's seventeen and a half. Give me Washington for more than that and I get the over fifty five and a half, Thank you very much. I'm want to know Casey allowed four hundred thirty six total yards to Buffalo on Sunday night, but minus four and turnovers did them in. By the way, I don't

know if you heard Rick doc Walker on Lombardi. Someone told me he sub was like, hey, Rick doc Walker was on Lombardi. He's an old, old Washington football teamer, won Super Bowls with Joe Gibbs, and he is uh. He still is very tied into the Washington football team, and he was just going off on that defensive line, and specifically without saying his name, he was going off on Chase Young and basically saying, it's all ego, like these guys only care about their specific role. They're not

playing team defense. And he's flying by the quarterback. Lombardi always talks about no one likes flying back past a quarterback more than Chase Young. It's just I don't know if they can get it together this defense. But Gil, you, but Gil, wouldn't you. Let's say you're on a mediocre football team. You you're gonna play for two or three years, the average length of your your your NFL careers, two or three years. You've got a cash in immediately right now.

This is your only opportunity. I know. We say, oh, we're gonna do it for the team. You gotta do it for the team. It's bs. These guys aren't stupid. They know they're a brand. They know that they only have a couple of years to play. I probably do the same thing. Now. You know, you want to say that that's horrible and that's not what we were led to believe here in America. You play good for the team. But that's let's be realistic. These guys aren't stupid. They

know if I get more sacks, I get more money. Right, But you may be right is the point. But you know what he was saying is and it's a great point about those Super Bowl teams that were coached under Richie petty Bone, which is we Washington had a guy Dexter Manley back in those days that did his own thing right and sometimes we'll get you three sacks on a drive against Phil Sims. He was just unbelievable, but

he played his own defensive concept. It was Dexter doing Dexter, and you had other guys like Rich Mullott and like Darryl world Grant who knew what Dexter was doing and almost made up for it right, Like they were playing with that kind of thinking. And you just don't get

that from these guys you know today. As talented as that Washington front four is, and it is talented, but that secondary is a brutal and if the defensive front is not pressuring the quarterback consistently and getting to him, uh, they're in trouble. And Patrick Mahomes may score a million points on them. They got two turnovers off Jamis right off the bat and couldn't do it. I mean and and couldn't. The hail Mary was was like you're literally

watching that. You're like, you guys, aren't you guys didn't jump for it for that ball. No, no one jumped for it. Was unbelievable, how ridiculous that was at the end of the first half. My my first picks a is the Los Angeles Chargers. On guessing lines with Christy on Monday, this was the line that made no sense to me. That was before were the Ravens played Monday night. I guess to pick him. This was this was at that moment, Ravens minus three and a half even, and

I just thought that was ridiculous. It's Ravens, I guess minus three still, uh, in most spots, maybe there's two and a half. Either way, give me the Chargers. Every time Brandon Staley opens his mouth, I fall deeper in love. Like this guy is to me, he's the best coach in the NFL. Said it last week on the show. I cannot be talked off this position, and I think justin Herbert besides Patrick Mahomes, is the guy start an NFL franchise with that defense. By the way, they do

play team defense. They know what their strength is, they know what the weakness is. They play a Cover two, they know that that's their identity. I think they can outscore anybody. And Baltimore, even in victory, even then I come back win over Indianapolis did nothing to let me think that they're that great of a football team. Give me the points. What is it three or two and a half, Todd, We'll give you the three two and a half. We'll give you the three. He's given me

the three Chargers plus three. That's my first pick, Ace number two. Oh, we sneaking this? What are we doing? Are we sneaking? We should go first? Go first, go first, go ahead. I'm gonna go with that same football game. I'm gonna go over forty nine and a half in the Browns against the Chargers. I really like, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, sor I'm sorry, I screwed up. I'm sorry Browns against the different, different, different game, not the same game.

I was thinking about last week's. I was thinking about last I'm sorry the Browns. I just kept watching Kareem Hunt and the other guy just run for like a thousand yards um Cleveland against Arizona. I want the over forty nine and a half. Arizona to me is also a very over ish team this year. They're scoring a billion points. Uh, Cleveland gave up, I think to to the Charges last week. I you know, I think Cleveland's defense is pretty good, but you know this Kyler Murray guy,

they're very good on offense. Arizona, I really like what they're doing on offense, and uh, you only have to go over forty nine and a half on the other side of the ball. I don't know how Arizona is gonna stop Cleveland from running because you know, I don't know, have you guys seen this Twitter stuff where Brian Baldinger puts up these uh the all twenty two and then he goes through like what different plays almost like they

used to do on NFL Live. I don't know if you guys have seen that happen, but yeah, yeah, it's really good. But anyways, that he's showing like some of the running plays against the Chargers last week with the Browns getting just gigantic holes, I really realistically think the over under on a prop for me at fullback for the Browns right now is probably over fifty eight and a half because the holes are so big you can just drive a mack truck through. I think Cleveland's gonna

move the ball. I think Arizona is gonna move the ball. Arizona and another shootout game. Give me over forty nine and a half. Let me let me interject though, Todd, I don't know if you're aware of this. So yesterday Chub and Hunt not practicing, and on defense Jadeveon Clowney and Miles Garrett both with injuries that they have to do that part for you, but the offensive part is

not good for you. So here's the thing. The one team, the one position that I don't care if I have injuries at is running back because I feel that the reason Hunt and and Um and Um Chubb are running now. Granted they're good backs, but the holes that they're getting to run through them are so massive. I mean, they're just it reminds me of Terrell Davis. Do you remember when Terrell Davis was with Elway and they would hand him the ball and he would just have like huge

caverns to run through. And they're just running the ball. I don't care who they give it to they give it to Mike Paum in the backfield, he's gonna run for Andrew Well. They had in defeat last week against the Charges. They had five one total yards, two hundred and thirty rushing to your point, Todd, thirty six minutes of possession. The third and the first team since the eighty nine Bengals with a hundred and fifty plus rushing yards in each of the first five games of a season.

Ikey Woods, I was right, I was saying. I was saying. The only thing I remember the eighty nine Bengals team is Washington played them the last game of the season. It was one of Joe gibbs few non playoff seasons and Jamie Morris carried the ball forty five times against him for Washington. He was like, let's just get out of here. Go ahead, Jamie carry the rocket. But by the way, and it's not a phaghazy stats. These are not phaghazy stats. Watched the games. The Browns are running

through holes that are ridiculous. It's ridiculous. You don't see that in the NFL. Todd, you said you really like this Arizona offense. Did you like him not scoring for three quarters against San Francisco after they got up not saying I mean, and do you think that Kyler is starting to take He's a little man that your friend Michael Lombardi calls him the mayor of Munchkinville. He's starting to show a little bit of wear and tear. And it's early in the season. But they're not what they

were early. Okay, I mean we'll see. You know, one game they scored seventeen points and you go to they scored thirty seven points at the Los Angeles Rams, reposed to be the vaunted Los Angeles Rams. They scored thirty four against Minnesota. I mean, come on that. I think that was one of the great reactions. Okay, okay, okay, you gotta make up. Yeah, I get it, and I get it. It's number two. I'm gonna take the I'm forced to make two more picks. I'm gonna take the

Cowboys and lay the three and a half. Here, boy, this New England defense looked so slow in that game. They just look I mean, they made they made they made uh Davis Mills look like John Elway there from Stanford. No, but they did. I mean, they looked like Houston had a formable, a formal offense. They just went came from Buffalo where they scored zero points. I mean, look, they're they're just not good. And now you're gonna take on

a Dallas team. Dex got all these weapons. I mean, I think Dallas is gonna score a ton of points in this game. And here's to Todd's point about New England, the dinking and the dunking, and I mean, when you have to play have fourteen fifteen yard drives, the holding penalty stops it and the likelihood of a turnover, and Dallas is so good at creating these turnovers. I think Dallas has a big upper hand in this game. And I think this number is short. I can't argue with her.

What's that Houston spread against the Colts? I have uston against the Colts. I see do you see ten? Todd? Is that we're going ten? Okay, Well, I'm taking Houston. Um, I'm having an indian I'm taking Indianapolis and survivor. Here's how I know Houston is gonna cover because I'm doing that, and so I know I know it's gonna be close. Um listen, I'm not racing to the window about Houston. Plus ten. I'm not I'm not gonna give the impression

that I am super excited about that. But on principle, the Indianapolis Colts should not be ten point favorites against anyone. Should not be And I don't trust Carson Wentz. I don't trust that team in any situation. And Houston really did show me something last week. Uh for gonna say they had to Rod Taylor. They may actually win few ball games, but they don't. And it is Davis Mills. And I do expect Indianapolis to win, but I expect it to be far more of a sweat um than

than his imagined. And they still have Brandon Cooks. He's like the one real football player on that team. I just don't get the sense from the Colts that they are in any way. And Carson Carson Wentz does a few things every game where he's spinning, whirling dervish and Jamis Winston style. He just tries to do something and I'm like, when did he start doing that? Um? So I think that comes into playing this game. Um, I just think it's too many points. The Colts should not

be ten point favorites against anyone. Give me the ten points on principle, It's like Ace was talking about, just sort of the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I don't have any super analysis other to say, like, give me all of them points and if you can, if you can beat me Indianapolis and cover that tip of the cap. I don't think they Houston number two a well. Green Bay's getting steamed right now. They just got hit in

my accounts at minus four and a half. That's going up to five five and a half soon, if anyone out there is paying attention. But here's my pick. I wish you wouldn't have stay snake because I'm opposite of Todd and now that worries me because he's on the show. Like I said, I'm down for the NFL season, but I went under fifty and I know it's forty nine and a half now and that wouldn't change my mind. I don't still think it's plus c V. Here's why hear me out. I just think this is the perfect

storm for an under. The books have done a really good job of pricing the totals for both of these teams. They knew coming into the season that Arizona offense was gonna score and the Cleveland offense was gonna score. The question with Cleveland was did they do enough on the defensive side of the ball in the off season when they picked up those free agents and through the draft.

That was the question. The offense was already set of the fact that we're going into Week six and they're five and five combined over and under, meaning you haven't made money betting the overs on these teams combined. The books have done a very good job. I pay attention to that because that tells me they have a really good grasp of these teams. They're not beating them, they're

not hurting them. A team like Arizona that's five and ohs straight off four and one a t s and betters are betting them every week for them to be two and three towards the under tells me the books have a really good grasp of this team as far as total goes, and they're managing that risk really well. And I think with this game, fifty was too high. Forty nine and a half is still too high. And

here's why. Yes, the offenses are potent, but it's the defensive side of the bull that's not getting enough credit. And some of the reason for why these teams are where they are. I mean, you look at now scoring defense. Arizona sixth in the NFL A Cleveland's eleven in the NFL scoring defense. Usually that's not the case when you're lighting up the scoreboard. Just think Kansas City. They didn't have a top scoring d y because when you're up forty points, how much effort can you possibly put on

the defensive side of the ball. The teams are more or less just thrown all the time anyway, make a long story short, that's very impressive that their defense is holding teams like that even though they're they're crushing um. And then it's not just on the scoreboard. You dig a little deeper and yards per play, they're really shutting these teams down. Another situation where Cleveland's a top ten defensive yards per play team and Arizona is just outside

the top ten. So as dangerous and the narrative is, you know, lethal they are offensively, it's on the defensive side of the ball. I think that they don't get enough credit. And what Gil touched on stuck out to me a lot. Also, just how many players are questionable or injured on both these teams offense to believe. For Arizona, you got Murray questionable, Edmunds, Hopkins, Daniels, Hudson out. I

mean the fact that questionable tells me they're not. And then on the Cleveland side, both running backs with chubbing her they're hunt they're both questionable, So don't banged up. And even though the wide receivers receivers, if you look at the skilled positions, if one of those guys god forbid, twists and ankle, they're in a lot of trouble. Two of their three backup wide receivers are on injured reserve. So this team, again on the offensive side, aren't all

that deep. And we're getting into the part of the season where injuries start to matter whether it's gonna start to play a role, specially in the ease coach, especially on the cold weather cities. To me, I I just this one screamed up perfect storm for value on an under, so I bet it. But again, you know the fact that Todd faded me doesn't make me all that confident. I don't bet a lot of pregame. It's on NFL A so if if so, you shouldn't be too worried.

But the only thing that I would say about that is Cleveland played well defensively at Minnesota. I'll give them credit for that. They played well against the Chicago Bears, I'll give them no credit on that. And they played well decently against Houston and weren't really playing that well and Tyrod Taylor was in the game on defense at all.

And they didn't play well against Kansas City. And last week against the Charges, I do believe they gave up almost fifty points, so I maybe they're a little bit not as good as everyone thinks they are. Um And then you know, on the Arizona side, Arizona gave up thirty three to Minnesota. I mean he played Jacksonville would say, I think the Chargers got some luck in that game with some calls and he's fourth down, And I mean, I don't know that the Cleveland defense is as bad

as the final score indicate. Remember I'm not saying they remember that game against Minnesota. Minnesota had that long drive to open the game, they scored on fourth and goal, they never got back in the red zone at home. A good offensive team against the lines, and how many did Minnesota score against the lines in Minnesota? Is not this Juggernaut offensive team anymore. I don't see them as you know, stopping them as said, well, look, we'll see

obviously that's what makes it fun. But and you could you can make the argument both ways. All I'm saying is I think sometimes the Browns are a little bit over inflated on defense since we talked about home field advantages, sort of like the macro things that have changed betting the NFL. The other thing is that injury report stuff like so I do primetime Action with Matt Brown, who, by the way, was three and oh want to know teaser when he was on the shows What's Rufus? Three?

And all with and Losch the teaser. Wait, I'll tell you Rufus was Saints minus two e one, Bengals plus three was a push, Pittsburgh was a win. He had Browns in Seattle, so he did not win. He got Gino Smiths. Yeah. Yeah. The other thing is the injury reports stuff. I do primetime Action with Matt Brown and Kelly Bidlin on MSG plus Monday through Friday night, our

Friday night show for three hours. I'm not been kidding, like maybe two hours and forty five minutes of it is nothing, but going through NFL injury reports, because if you don't have that information, this is all nonsense. Like, it's amazing how much now teams have cluster injuries in a way that they never did before. I don't know if it's because we lost one preseason game and the injuries happened quicker. I think it's been going on for a couple of years now. Like fantasy players will tell

you this, it's like, oh, my team's decimated. It's Week three. So it's it's always huge to know because a lot of big names appear on these things. Um a spot why it built, by the way, which is why in game is the way to bet the National Football League, Because if you know that there's injuries, guess what. See here's the thing I don't like. You go in, they go, oh, there's so many injuries. They don't tell you that the second stringer is good or the second stringer is bad.

You don't know. But you watched the game. Now you watch the first twenty minutes of the foot all game and you get to see you are the cluster injuries hurting them, the cluster injuries not hurting them, And now you have all so much more information. So I don't know why. I know what. People don't don't want to bet ind game, but to me, it's the only way to go. Ace before you give you a third pick.

You're still doing UFC stuff? Oh yeah, absolutely. I do the Contender Series show every Tuesday, Danavits Contender Series and then you know, I do uh the show for Fight Pass. We're on our third season and I do that pretty much once or twice a month, we do a show. Yeah, I'm still with them. I'm moving like the fourth year, the last year of my contract, so we'll see what happens after that of it. I'm having a great time.

It's been a great Bryan. I didn't want to go through the whole show without plug in your UFC stuff. Thank you, thank you. It's a lot of fun. What's your number three? All right, I'm gonna share this one because I kind of have an opinion on the side and the total, so you kind of get a little bonus pick in there. But we'll we'll use I'll go

to the side as the pick. And here's why, because I'm going against even one of the groups that I moved for that bet to my Aami Dolphins, but they bet him at minus three, and they're one of those groups that they do really good at getting out ahead of the market and knowing which direction it's gonna go. So I think it was a case of them believing it's gonna go to three and a half, if not four, because it's Jacksonville Jaguars. So I'm not afraid there's a

little bit of sharp money against me. Here's my bet on the Jaguars. It's not a bet on Jacksonville. I am fading the Miami Dolphins, and hear me out. This is my only argument that they have no business at all, the Miami Dolphins being a favorite on the road against anybody at all. If you look at Miami so far this season, they've been a dog every single game except once at home against Indianapolis, and they lost that one

by double digits. So this team number one has no business being a favorite, let alone no road favorite against anyone, right right, right, right, right right regardless. Okay, I got you, But I'm saying that they're they're even favored anywhere on the planet, even in Moore's This team shouldn't be favored over anyone at all. Now you look at the Jacksonville side, all right on the performing just as expected. But why where in the metrics other than strength of schedule should

Miami be a favorite. I look at yours per play, the only team worst than Jacksonville on the offensive side of the ball is Miami. The only team worst than Jacksonville on the defensive side of the ball is Miami. If I look at oh, well, how do you win football games? Scoring points scored, points allowed offense defense, the only team worst than Jacksonville that's scored less Miami. The only defense that's allowed more points than Jacksonville is Miami.

So why in what world is Miami favor over Jacksonville? And makes absolutely no sense except the thorough win team against a winless team. And personally, I think the winless team, if anything, has incentive and motivation to not remain winless. Like to me, that's something you can't quantify obviously, So that's one of those edges I think is a better that is impossible for the oddsmaker to factor into the price.

But I think if I'm a winless team, that's got to give me some kind of motivation, man, to like, just get that that monkey off your back. You gotta get a win and then it don't matter after that. For Miami, this has just been a disappointing season because they came in, they beat the New England Patriots as road underdogs, and then what happened? The wheels have come off and now they're looking at No, they're going nowhere. You're not making the playoffs, you're not catching up in

the a f C East. So for me, it's just a spot where I'm not betting Jacksonville again. Jacksonville is a terrible team, arguably the worst team in the NFL. Um They're not the lowest on my power ratings, but I'm sure on a few they are and I couldn't argue. But does it give you does it give you any pause that it could be to a here this weekend and not Jacoby for said, you know, because what's the drop all like? And that's what I want to touch

on in Seattle Pittsburgh? Can we I won't take that time now, but let's touch on that Sunday night game before we go, even for twenty seconds, because that's such a big line move from switching favorites over the quarterback spot. But to me, it doesn't matter who's the quarterback in this situation because neither of them are elite, so the drop off isn't all that significant. You're not going from Aaron Rodgers to a number three, You're going from a

number three to a number three? Like where is the drop all? So to me, like that, all that is noise, none of its signal for me to run and and back Miami and fade Jacksonville again. I I just it's the kind of bet where it just doesn't make sense to me. Even if Miami goes out there and wins by three touchdowns, there's nothing in the metrics that convinced me that Miami should be favored again even though it's Jacksonville,

especially through a key number of three. To me, that's ridiculous, Like we know how important three is, and for Miami to be above that now with three and a half's hanging out there makes no sense. I also bet the game over again, two bad teams. You gotta look at the over. You're gonna give all points. It takes a lot more effort. We've gone up there over and had

a million times. No reason to revisit it, um, but the reason the Jacks might actually the Jags might actually make it from fourth and goal at the half yard line one of these days to exactly. And it's something the week and I didn't use it as a bet because I bet over forty five and a half forty six, and I think it's up to like forty seven forty seven and a half. But you just still get three and a half minus one twenty right now in Jacksonville, and I think that three and a half's gonna be

even money by Sunday. For some reason, I think vetters are gonna bet Miami. I mean, I don't know why, um, but I like the Jacksonville side. Miami uh last week snapping their streak of twenty six straight games with a takeaway. Jacksonville the second team in NFL history to lose twenty straight Tampa Bay in seventies seventies seven. Ace, do you

have a play on the Sunday night game? I know you love Pete carroll Is as a game planner, one of the great coaches of Here's what I wanted to touch on that I've now lived here long enough, been betting long enough. Mike and Gil knows this. I've lived

through the outliers. I've lived through bating the narrative and the old school me would have sat back and said, let them bet up Pittsburgh, and I'm gonna go in and take the best of it with Seattle because the public, the public, the squares are gonna overreact and think he's worth more to betting line than he is. So I'm gonna get the best of it. I'm gonna have a ticket in my pocket that's two or three points better

because they're stupid and I'm smart. Here's what I found out that I'm not as smart as I thought I was, because over the last two decades or so betting, I've seen outliers on teams that the drop off is that significant. I've seen Aaron Rodgers do it in Green Bay, where we thought he was worth five points, than six points, than eight points, and the books found out he was worth a lot more to his team than we ultimately thought.

And I saw that happen and they continued to cover spreads um and I think it's one of those situations where you just have certain players that really are worth more to the betting line than even reason in metrics makes us. I'll arguably conclude they are, because again, we all know nobody's work should be worth more than a touchdown to a betting line. We know, no non quarterback is when your backup. Though when knows the backup sometimes

thank you, thank you. And even though even though the qb R right now of Russell Wilson isn't off the charts, he's still so much better and just such a big part of this team that I don't it's it's so difficult to quantify in points what he's worth. That's the problem. That's why the old man, I'd have been all lover the Seattle side. I'd have sat back in bet Seattle

and phone I had the best of it. Like I said, I've been here long enough not to get trick rolled, and I've been here long enough not to sit there and take the five. I'm getting the best of it because Russell Wilson ain't worked seven points to the betting line. He ain't worked seven points that the betting line. He's probably worked more than seven points that a betting line,

especially and otherwise I'm passing. It's Pittsburgh or pass, because I'm not trying to be the smartest guy in the room anymore, especially when it's around it when it's a small number. As well, the numbers are even worth more.

But the one thing that's not in the line right now is that I'm going to the game in the club seats, and and I don't rather vociferous, and you know when a guy as loud as me is the service announcement that that's like, Well, once I make my in game bet, you know, probably early second quarter, I will tweet it out and then you realize that's worth at least to happen. Let me jump in here because that and we did not plan this. That is my third bet. I'm on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points.

So much of what you said, Ace, I don't need to repeat. I love the point you're making about how you think differently. Now it is Geno Smith Russell Wilson

targeted for a Week ten return for the Seahawks. I have said many times on a Numbers game, if not on this podcast, I think I didn't say it on this pot, but on the Numbers game rather where I said, I don't know when the day is coming when when Russell Wilson can't put on his cape and save Pete Carroll from his own devices, whether it's by injury, whether it's by age, whatever, it is, and it happened that when that day comes, the Sea Hawks are gonna fall

off a cliff. And Gino Smith was was great in relief. He was really good. He was the other night. We have to give him credit for that. But even big Ben, who did get the ball out there for two or fifty three yards is last week. Naji was great. Two on the ground, Claypool uh six excuse me, five for one thirty and a touchdown, Deante Johnson two for seventy

two touchdown. I just think even Ben big Ben in that offense is going to be able to cover this because I think that Seattle defense ultimately is going to be on the field a lot because Gino is gonna have a lot of short drives, a lot of three and outs as good as he played the other night. I will take Pittsburgh as my number three pick. But Pete Carroll's a defensive mastermind, mastermind, mastermind, You're number three. I'm gonna go Chargers Ravens over fifty two on this

Ravens defense is not good. We said Momby either good because Denver didn't score against him, but that was Petty was out in the second half of that game, as well, I don't think the Targers will get stopped too many times in this game. Um, and I'd like to see Baltimore get behind and Lamar have to throw the ball around the field. That will be good for for the total as well. I think this Charger team is legitimate, and we'll find out going on the road, going east,

playing outdoors, playing on grass if they are. But I really do believe they are. And I think the Chargers put up thirty five or more themselves. Chargers twenty six fourth quarter points last week, fourth two at their own, down fourteen with ten thirty four left of the third quarter. But Brandon Staylors like, I don't care if we lose by a hundred, We're going for it. I love that nine yard game. Um. They matriculate the ball downfield, then they go for two to cut it from eight to six.

And then they had a later one where they eschewed the field goal and they're like, no, we're going for it again, down four team and they got it done. Um, one of these days they won't convert one of those fours. But so far, so awesome. Uh, Todd, your last one, My last one is gonna be the Cincinnati Bengals game versus Detroit. I'm going under forty seven and a half. I think the Bengals are a sneak decent football team. On defense, I've seen them play. They played green Bay

played very well defensively last week. Hung in the game, Uh, Pittsburgh, they shut down. They shut down the Bears with it. Who cares everyone shuts down the Bears. They played decently against. I just think they're the kind of team. They have a pretty decent defense. Detroit has done nothing to show me offensively that they can be great except between the twenties. When you get inside the twenties, all of a sudden, Detroit can't get the ball in the end zone. You know,

unless it's the last minute of the game. The Detroit really you know, golf is killing them inside the red zone. Uh, you know, seventeen against Minnesota, four d against the Bears, seventy against Baltimore, seventeen against green Bay. Throwout the San Francisco game because they got all those touchdowns late Detroit, and they're also running the ball, and they got that that coach with our we're gonna run the football, yeah,

because we're gonna we're gonna be tough. We're gonna eat change dollars for lunch and we're gonna run the football. So Lions are gonna run the ball. I think Cincinnati is a sneaky decent defensive team. And to me, this game could be twenty and I get even even I still get under forty seven and a half. So I just think Cincinnati's a little bit better on defense and people realize and Detroit's really not that good on offense. Uh So I'll go under the forty seven and a half.

It's stuff we were trying to do. Our power rankings are top ten power rankings the other day, both on prime time and on a n G. And once you get past eleven, you're like it's a cliff and you're like, who's twelve Cincinnati? Like maybe because you can't really come up with it. Carolina Cincinnati one of those kind of teams. Alright, Teasers of the week because Mike's gotta go do uh

odds on with the mall at circle. Mike, he wants me to go before him on teasers because he thinks that down somehow gaming him Bucks and l A Chargers. I think the l A Chargers are not going to lose by more than nine, give me l a Chargers plus nine, give me bucks minus a half. Do you want me to jump in alight? He took one of months. I'm on the Chiefs and the Chargers as mine. Cheeps and Chargers Chargers not at all. We don't want to

get tweets from people. It's not a Stanford won well either is the Chiefs, by the way, but Chiefs Chargers for me. Che's the Chiefs down to basically beat Washington Chargers. Give me nine points to work with against Baltimore Ace Ace before you go ahead, And I'm glad you've cleared that up because the wrong teaser has been absolutely crushing at this season. Yes, if you just wait in and pick those apart um, you've done a lot of damage in this week. Even with the lines moving, there's none

have opened up. I mean, the only one you could possibly categorize right now would be the Chargers the Baltimore at two and a half taking the Chargers up the eight and a half. But there really isn't no reason to tease again. I'm a true believer of just trust the math and if you have something that's plus c V, don't reinvent the wheel. Like you know, if you tease through three and seven, that's where you're getting the vout. Knew if the opportunity isn't there, why teeth just lay

the minus one ten. You're not increasing your odds by taking the six. The math is already been done by guys smarter than all of us, like the quantz figured that ship out that if you tease through these numbers, it's worth doing it. If you don't, don't, don't um. But for action, and because we're grading, I'm gonna I have a gamble in me like everybody else. I'm not

in this industry by accident. Um. So I'm gonna touss in my teaser and I'm and this is a way to share another pick Kansas City because I laid the six and a half, so why not take them down the minus a half? And uh, I'm gonna have you already know I like Buffalo. That's too easy, So let's add Pittsburgh. Let's let's confirm that Pittsburgh already I'm getting mney. Yeah, I'll take Pittsburgh plus a point plus a half. Again, these aren't plus TV by any stretch of the imagination,

but it's a lot of fun in its action. As long as you know that when you walk through the window, that's there's nothing wrong with placing it. But if you're investing that way, then you've got to take a step back, man, and actually, like I think of what you're doing, I couldn't help you're actually getting I could have used Pittsburgh too, but somehow I didn't conclude it in my teaser. I'm gonna use because I have to go oppo Todd to try to gain ground. Um, you're also chasing me, my friends,

it's not But he's the guy. He's not he's not worried about you, and I'm the guy. I'm honestly not worried. I'm not really worried about you. I'm I'm gonna go Bucks Chiefs for mine to go opposite Todd, Um or not opposite, but use one, you know, Ace. I received a telegram from a former listener and he said, ask Ace if he has that Patrick Mahomes member size update. Actually you'ing hanging on it in a while a while, you know, Antully, they hung on it for so long

he's got a lot to stare Um. But it's been a while since they pulled on it for him unfortunately. Alright, Final two questions, Final two questions, Ace, you remember these, Which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose outright? In your opinion? We usually do this at six and a half and and uh and higher. Um, here are your candidates this week of the possible ones to lose. Tampa Bay minus six and a half or minus seven at Philadelphia that is tonight on Thursday night.

Kansas City minus six and a half on the road at Washington, Indianapolis minus ten, minus nine and a half at home against Houston Rams ten point favorites on the road against the Giants. Those are the candidates. Who's the most likely to lose outright? Ace? Oh, you made this so easy for me. I'm already sprinkling and just waiting for see if it gets to seven and I had give me Philipe, help ya give me an Eagles at

plus money. That's a nice money line. Um, the last I saw plus two fifty plus two fifty five not bad. That's a winnable game. I am also taking Philadelphia. I believe Tampa Bay is the most likely to lose outright of those groups teams. Mikey, there there's only three, right, there's chiefs. You conclude the Chiefs said the Chiefs. Okay, I gotta pay attention, he said, cold. What about you, Todd? I think the Colts can lose too. I'm with Mikey on that one. I mean, the Colts are nothing. I mean,

you know, they played really well. Would you say you're right there? In four team It's not like they're turning at all. And they and they beat the Dolphins, and I've got them in Survivors and I've got him in the Survivors. So you know it's gonna be tight. We will be We'll have a chance with We'll have a chance with the Texas of course. Alright, final question, Uh, we have bys this week, by the way, four teams

are in by so we do have fourteen games. Let's say you lived in a bizarro world where you were forced to bet all of them, but one thirteen of the four teen you must make a play on, but one you want no part of. On the side whatsoever? Ace, what is the game you want no part of? Oh? I told you I liked this board, so I it's difficult to call him out, um, but honestly, it probably would be the Chargers Ravens game. Um, that's more one. I want to see both these teams play this game

than getting bobbed in it. It's around that key number of three. Um. Again, it's just where I had it waited. It's it's right on the number. I just don't see much value either way. Maybe if you could late two and a half or get three and a half, you could say you have a good ticket in your pocket. Um, But it's just one of those stay away from me. I mean in the game. I like Baltimore, but again not I wouldn't bet it Todd the Raiders game. I

don't want any part of the rage. That's fine. I mean, what what in the world, What in the world is going on over there? I mean, you know, I know there's emails. I mean some emails. I just came to light about Mike Palm and that's why I want to try to get him knocked off odds On or the nuts. I think he should be thrown out of their and circle as the operations manager because he called me a fat jew one time and h no, I'm just kidding. He would never call me that. But uh, I don't

know what's going on in that raiders offer room. Who knows any more? But if you're not fat anymore, oh yeah, anymore exactly. And you know what I did. I did the mask. I should have lost forty three pounds of this summer playing tennis, but instead of gained one because I've eat too many calories even though I've been playing tennis every day. I'm a big fat causer and I've gone from two six times to to seventy. Very bad

job by me. That's all right, You're better than you were were also you and I also Raiders Denver part of who knows knows what's gonna happen. We gotta run because Mike He's got a show to do. Ace love you man great. Thanks for having me by big point before it's too late. Follow Faid. I hope you make money Thanase because I want to talk shit if my overs had Breefunderscore Gambler Yeah you too, so please so I can follow back through that at Greek Underscore Gambler

please Todd at let's see add Greek Underscore Gambler. Yes please four Ace Vegas runner for Todd, wishing that for Mikey palm Gill Alexander, thanks for listening. Appreciate everybody listening to the megapod this year, record numbers, record numbers. We appreciate it. Great legals, Talk to you next week. Good luck with all your bets. Week six in the Ashen Football League