Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 5 Preview

you beat out Dotties. We beat out in Choctaw in Oklahoma, finished second. I by the minor upset. I had Choctaw over us, but we got there. And so congratulations to Derreck Stevens and everybody to put the property together. Mazle to thank you as my mother would say, thank you. And then just thirty minutes ago we launched circuits Sports

in Iowa. We went lives Yeah another you know. I was on Tuesday with Ken Miller and Trent Condon on k x N O and des Moines and that they interviewed about the launch and at the end Trent Condon said, I just want to speak for many many megapod listeners, Mike, if you could please ask Todd Wishes just to shut up and let you in the guests talk Todd your your thoughts. I'm not even going to respond to that nonsense. People in Iowa obviously are not the wow taking out

the whole state. That's Todd Wish. That from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, bulletin boards all over the cork behind it. Are you doing, Toddy good? I'm doing all right. Ladies and gentlemen, are are rotating guests today kind enough to join us on the podcast. I don't believe he was on the podcast last year, but he's been on the pod years ago, two years ago, many

times before. Professional better half of the Massy Peabody analytics team, co founder of unabated, which you can tell us about right now. Rufous Peabody, How you do it, man? I'm doing well, Gil. I'm excited to actually get some NFL knowledge for from some people that actually know how to beat the NFL, because I certainly don't. This year. You're having a rough time of it. Yeah, I've I've made money every Saturday and lost money every Sunday, which is

not normal for you, right, that's not like a normal thing. Well, it feels like, I mean, NFL has gotten harder and harder to beat. I bet, and honestly, I bet nfls on in college on Monday. Um, actually I got college later in the week as well, but but I don't bet it on Monday for NFL and probably not betting it. So you grab, you you're basically doing the numbers grab early in the week, and the COVID era of information

coming down to the wire. Not interested, not interesting to you in terms of making bets waiting late into the week, right, I mean, I feel like there's so many people with such good data analyzing the NFL out there that you know, myself, with you know, only devoting a little bit of time to it. It's just not enough. What are you devoting? How about in game? Um? You know, I haven't even bet second half this year. That's something I always bet.

I've been doing second half for college football, but my server isn't working properly for NFL second half, and I've kind of just been like, Okay, I'll get to it next week. It's never been the highest thing on my list of priorities for some reason you do college football second half though. Yeah. I have been witnessed to Rufus on a college football Saturday sitting in front of his computer back in the day making multiple college football bets too much success. That was always a treat. So tell

us about Unabated. For those who are unfamiliar with Unabated, what you do with the Commissioner Sports Betting Captain Jack andrews weird. Yeah, I like that title for him, it certainly fits. So Unabated is a venture between with myself, Captain Jack and um well, Dan fer Grizio and Matthew Snyder. Who are We're all out here for G two E actually in Vegas. UM, and it is we provide betting

tools and education for better is. Basically, we want people to be able to quantify their opinions, and we have products that make you a better better UM alternate line pricing tools, UM. We have a season long NFL simulator that you can customize with your own power ratings or use a bunch of grading systems out there. UM. I think it's as specific as quarterback injury probabilities and backup

quarterback penalty UM. And recently, while we're launching prop tools that allow you to come in with your projections for a player, like receiving yards receptions and see what that distribution looks like. You know, what's the probability of this guy gets a hundred yards? What's shila under seventy seven and a half minus one forty or you know under seventy three and a half minus one ten? Interesting, so so, and it's all free at unabated dot com for now,

for now, unfree, free and unabated. But just an example, if if Team A is favorite over Team B by seven points, alternate line seven a half eight, eight and a a half nine, so on and so forth, it will allow you to sort of determine what the best bet of the bunches is that one possible application. Yeah, there's a compare line school you put in okay, you put in two lines, and tells you which one is better. But there's and there's different things, so people will gravitate

towards what sort of resonates with them. There's different ways to use on a beta. It's really interesting. Um. And I was saying when you and Captain Jack were on on a numbers game yesterday on Visa, I was saying, I'm sure there's tons of betters out here. We're listening to the megapon right now. Who hear that and say this sounds awesome. I really want to be a better better, but it sounds like it might be too complicated for

me to them. You would say what I would say? Well, first off, um, is it complicated to put two lines in and see which one is better? And it will tell you which one is better? Now, I mean if you so, I think, regardless of how sophisticated you are or want to be, if you want to save money, um, you can save. We have tools that basically will help you execute that a better prices and save money that way. Um. But what we want to do Captain Jack loves this

term aspirational sharp and I think it's fantastic too. But I think that's who were catering to. And we want to sort of help, um, help better, sort of move up that ladder. And and we we don't want to teach. We don't want to give him man of fish. We want to teach a man to fish. Or I've heard person wish Yeah, yeah, I like it. Aspirational betters, aspirational sharps exactly aspirational do you have anything but the acid aspirational.

Do you have anything for aspirational radio hosts? Because there's a man to your left who is aspirational. He's a sort of mediocre. He'd like to get that. Well, all I want to say is I'm here for you if you were not here, you know. I was like, I was going to tell Gil no, but then he said, Todd wishnup. I was like, yeah, I'm in. I mean Todd wish to that have aspirational sharp Todd, you are the podcast stenographer, and uh I am the one falling further and further behind. What do you got, Killy the

ice man with a nice delicious one and two? You gotta like it, just keep fading. The gil Meister he was now last week I was I told him he was fortunate, and when he was unfortunate on one of his wins, let's give him, uh, you know, some kind of compensatory, you know, clapping or something, because his Lions pick did not deserve to lose. They were inside the five yard line a hundred and fifty times and could not score. Mikey also lost on that, So you guys

got unfortunate after being fortunate the week before. But Anyways, Guilt falls to four and eight with his one and two, but his teasers continue to roll on at four and oh, which is really the only important thing because anybody who would bet the spreads pre game is an idiot, so you know, four no teasers. Great job, Gilly. Mikey with a strong two in one week um with the Packers

and Browns two winners. He moves to seven and five, although he lost his teaser with the Tight Titans because the Titans too, I had a four team teaser and that was the loser. So Mikey falls to two and two the teasers, and then the great One himself has a bad one in two weeks, but still stays tied for first at seven and five and also four no and teasers. That's me seven and five and four no and teasers, and we move on. How did how did our guest spot do? Yet? Last week our guest spot

was Matt Brown. He had the Ravens a winner, the Browns a winner, and Dallas a winner. Clean and you also had the teaser correct with the Chiefs in the bus. Matt Brown clean sheet co host Time Action MSG plus that I do uh week nights with Kelly Bidlin as well. Okay, so then Mikey Circuit Million, Circus Survivor, Circus Survivor. People continue not to put in their entries. All time record nineteen people didn't put in their entry. How do weeks?

What is that? Somebody needs to invest some money like Rupus has in his website and do a thirty for thirty on this and go to all these people that didn't over the years put in these picks. It gets more and more ludicrous. What if I told you? What if I told you? It's so now three straight weeks the largest knockout is the ones that didn't put one in, right, we we we lost four oh nine with the Saints, one fifty one with the Titans, nineteen the Medals, four Dolphins,

one Vikings. We we lost exactly twenty percent of the remaining entrance went from seventeen to thirty three. So it should be it should be noted, and it was great that the Giants and Jets both with the upsets over the Saints and the Titans respectively in overtime, but it should be noted that there with all those eliminations, there are still more people alive in Survivor right now, this year than there were in the entire survivor pool. Last

year there were nine. There's a thousand more. Yeah, so how many people relatives exactly started and now are left? So after four, after four weeks, you know we've knocked out last year last year lower last year because everyone lost the Colts and we want thirty three lost. A third of the people had the coltson Week one last year was down quick. I want to know if anybody, like, did anybody pick the Texans last week? I mean, what's the dumbest Oh, we've seen some ridiculous ones, like people

thinking that they're some of this is to wait. They use opposite sides of the same game to advance the pick of two teams they think they'll never use again. That's called the double option that Derek promotes. I'm not too sure. No, no, somebody did it. Somebody used their six entries and did three Browns and three Texans in week two. Yeah. Wow, if you think the Texans are gonna went to stay away from the game and let everybody get slaughtered with the Browns, this is this again,

this again. I keep trying to say this to to people know who listen. Anything beyond one entry. It is not proportional to your advantage. No, everyone is. If you have six entries, you do not have six times the chance because people do not play anything but that remaining one optimally. I have a stand on this gill though, because one of our friends asked about this, because he's in this group. Three and eleven people bought six entries this year. Okay, of those three eleven, sixty of those

still have six entries alive, which our friend does. All our friend does, he asked about. But and here's the thing. He thinks that somehow he is that it doesn't matter. By the time we get to Thanksgiving, Let's see how many entries they all have left. That's what I'm saying. If if you do have six left, then I mean you're in a great spot. And his argument is you need those six to get through Thanksgiving and Christmas? You do, or to give you some back? Did you understand my point?

He's not playing them all the same way by definition. By definition, that means you are not playing it the same way you would play with one. And so it is a bit of a face givings too far out for this to matter, is what I'm saying. Some people ultimately get there with two entries left. Right, Christmas is really far out to the people that are saving for Christmas. Last year, remember when Dr Dmyer's power were ranked at the end and I was third. There was like two

different people with two entries left. Those are the people that have an advantage at the end. But right now do you agree with yeah? Well multiple yes, at the end. I started looking at the grid because this week is very difficult, um and it starts getting really really dice even uh in the next couple of weeks, I agree

of like who's available and who you could take. I mean, I think I'm going to be forced to take either the Vikings this week or maybe even the Carolina Panthers, because you know, like I, I know I want Dallas for Thanksgiving, so I have to save those guys. And then there's other teams you have to save if you look at the grid, because there are some weeks there

is nothing. And let me tell you something, thanks Giving, the Sunday of Thanksgiving is gonna be insane because if you look at the games, everyone's thinking you gotta get through Thanksgiving. You also have to get through the Sunday, which doesn't have as many games, and all those games are tough as hell. Andy, who's like gritting it out and mapping it at this point? I said it before

the season. I was like, you're kidding yourself if you're doing it at this point, because you don't know you and Todd are both alive with your one entry, correct, Todd, Todd, who'd you have last week? Last week? I survived with the Kansas City Chiefs, and that's right, I had Cincinnati. Todd was sad Cincinnati rally to nine people knocked out. We're all rooting against each other and the circle million three. Just because the quarter ended the first four weeks with

a quarter, now it's a five week quarter. Five people tied at eighteen and two going into Monday night. There was one guy that had a shot. He had the Raiders. He could have been nineteen and one and one hundred and seventy one thousand. But as it ends up, the guy that was fifteen and I went three and two, and four other people end up eighteen and two. They split first, second, and third. They each got forty nine thousand, three fifty and on the bottom end, two entries went

three and seventeen. They split the five each new quarter begins, new quarter begins. Now the extra is the final quarter, the extra week. There's two extra weeks, right, so it's the second and fourth quarters are five weeks long. Okay, good to know, Todd, you're thirteen and seven. Yes, seven, I am tied like place all the way to nine. It's impressive. Good luck, good luck. That's all value these days. All right, Uh, let's do best bets. No before we

do that Thursday night. I don't know if it's anybody's best bet, but tonight there is a game rams uh and the Seahawks Rams on the road favored by two and a half against Superman Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Rufus, did you have any thoughts on this game at all? You know, I don't know if I have intelligent thoughts, but my numbers actually made the Seahawks a small favorite, although again it depends what are you using for home field?

Depends on home field advantage right now, because I think the Rams are a slightly better team, but you know, mark like less than a point better. Um, I'm using two points for this game. That's but this is this is kind of the art of betting in a way. This is not necessarily science, like this is regress zero. UM. I was who was I talking with um earlier this

week about home field advantage? I think it was Chris List on the Serious X Down Fantasy UM radio spot, And there was no home field advantage in two thousand nineteen. I didn't know this, like he he said he had heard the right two thousand nineteen, there was no home field advantage I and I like literally quickly pulled up data set. I was like regression of score differential on dummy variables for team and opponent and whether the teams

at home. And certainly it was a very small negative number. UM. You know, we always say home field has been decreasing over time, but it kind of like fell off a cliff in two thousand nineteen and then two there no fans and it was you know, point one five points or something like that, and then this year it's basically been nothing too. What is your theorist why it fell off a cliff? Then? I don't know. I mean, what my theory to why college football team start with the

letter oh? Covered a clip over fifteen years with six d observations like but but that is truly ridiculous that what what There's got to be something to this, right Well, I don't know. I mean I think there was last year, for sure. I mean, you and I root for a team that clearly has had no home field advantage in a decade, right like we could see that with our own eyes because of a curse. You and I actually had it to give a famous exchange on this show

about Seattle crowd years ago. I don't know if you remember it where I said, oh, rufus, it's a huge home field advantage. I went to a game. I couldn't hear the guy next to me, and you said to me, Gil, really you went to one game and you've decided that it's a massive home field advantage. But that is a stadium Seattle where it is sort of conventional wisdom that it's this massive home field advantage. And yet you're even saying there, you're giving it a nod of two points.

So so it's a greater home that advantage than most. And the big reason for me is because of the geographical location at Seattle that travel to travel, it's longer travel. It's yeah, not the crowd noise, not travel to travel. And although I'll say being a divisional game less home for the advantage, like historically that's been the case a divisional games because there's more familiarity this. You know, the

Rams go there once a year. They're used to you know, players are used to that routine of coming into that stadium. It's not there. Yeah, So with would that trigger a bet on Seattle? Though? For you your your your projection, Well, this line opened it a pick and so it's kind of moved up and we moved towards the Rams, like you know, two points are worth the time. Um, And as I said, it's not Monday, so I'm probably not

going about it. If you know, if it gets to three, I might just just for you know, yeah, um, or if I see a good like alt price or something like that. Um, that's kind of where I would where I would go. Or if I had to like to tease it with, I guess. So yeah, it is a question. Is that a good Seattle teaser? Like I mean that that feels kind of teaser? Is shi now at this point? And you know I read somewhere that Russell Wilson is

nine in one on Thursday Night Football. Historically, he said he prides himself and how he prepares in a short week. Is there anything to that? He says, He prides himself urface, But I want to ask you guys all and that includes dot over you know, Yonder in Pittsburgh. What what? What? What do you make home field advantage this year for an average team? One point of seven? Is the word? Is the number that gets thrown around? Yeah, I think

it's too to what Chris Andrews say. He only gives two teams the full three on your show, Yeah, Seattle and Green Bay. He gives three two? Was three what he used to give for every every problem for everybody. I mean, what year is that? Well, it could be

anywhere from dinner the late eighties on? Right? Isn't it also matter where the where the line would be prior to the giving for the home So for instance, if if you were five and a half points better than a team and now you're getting one and a half for the home now you get to go over seven, Like I feel like that has to be part of the equation, like getting near the key numbers on the home field, You know what I mean, That's why we

said average. I hear you, okay, fair enough. Top refuses to answer the question I see I who knows, I mean this NFL nonsense. You've got to just played in game. It's ridiculous. Yeah, but I sit here. I used to sit here on a Sunday and be able to pick off six or eight end game betside like I sit here. The last two weeks, I made exactly two bets. It's just too hard. It's just too hard to find that where you think there's value in these game props that

are are are fun. Not here. If you were in Nevada though, you're in the you're in the you're in the dark age, but you can you know, there are places where you can bet the running backs, you know, not the you know under and over on that passing and all this stuff as the game's going on. It's incredible. But the truth is a lot of those props are really bets on the game in a sense because you have, like if you're gonna bet the running back under it because you think that the other team is gonna have

to throw because they're a hind. All that other stuff is really coming into the proper handicapped as well. By the way, this has nothing to do with anything, but did you say, did you hear that Brandon Stanley minute and change that why you need to run the football that I thought brilliant, brilliant. Give him coach of the year. Now if you, by the way, you send that back

to the seventies and eighties the pants what what? What number in terms of a game do you give the Chargers this year having him as the coach as opposed to Anthony Lynn last year. I mean, dude, it's already one at least, I think Anthony Lynn got a rod deal. Do you I think Anthony Lynn was a better coach than people give him credit for a better head coach? Yeah, I think I think we see the in game stuff, yes,

and we say he couldn't manage in game. You know, you know who else people said that about for years Andy Reid, And people don't think Andy reads a boat, don't know, but I think he still can't manage in game Andy Reid. I think he's batter, I think. But I think we see the in game decision making, the fourth down stuff, and we said, like, it's what we

can observe directly. We don't indirectly observe what happened. We don't directly observe what happens in the locker room in the motivation and how he you know, leads these men, um we and so we judge based on these two probabilities. So a numbers game this morning, I lead with this. That game. That baseball game last night was National Nation League wild card game. The most significant moment of that game most people didn't even notice or comment on right

because they're not analytics people. When they didn't pull waynewright, when Schilt didn't put Joe Pete had a great tweet about this when they didn't put pull waynewright after I think it was beat got HBP hit by pitch, so there was two out better at first at the top of the sixth, and Waynewright's position came up and it was one to one. Yes, No, I think this was

the wasn't this earlier in the game? Top of the six Yes, top of the top of the six one to one, two out beaters at first, pain rights position, game and Silt lead him into bad out of the inning. By the way Wayne writes out after the next two batters anyway, in the bottom of the sixth and the point that Rufus was just making, when we somewhat justifiably but not always justifiably bitch about some of these fourth down decisions. I'm as guilty as of it as anybody.

The win probability difference in those fourth down decisions that are that are made poorly, it's about a two percent win probability difference. That thing with with Wayne Right not being pulled yesterday, if they go up two to one, it's a twenty percent win probability difference, and no one

mentions it or ever says anything about it. He made the last out in the fourth too, in that same situation where he came up with two outs in a runner, but that was the fourth I thought the key pointing the whole game and not from a decision making though, was this O'Neill not advancing the runners first and second, nobody out top of the fifth and child batting O'Neil and fred Ronado and not doing anything all night is probably the difference in that game. It's uh. But Anthony

len five double digit leads last year. Five, he's handing off, he's running, he's he's running. A draw play in Tampa Bay up seventeen and a rainstorm with fifty seconds left, Tampa Bay only had one time out and they fumble and now they're only up ten. And I mean, this goes on and on for years with them about this stuff's terrible. But he's good at like I mean, I think he's actually good at getting these guys to play.

I mean, I think he's a good In Detroit, he got he like you can't ignore the fact that he got them those double digit leads. He turned around and then he took We took a team that went four and twelve and five, five and eleven before he took over, they went what nine and seven and then twelve and four and uh lost to the um Patriots in the was the divisional round. I guess with Philip Rivers, who yes,

you know. Also he has the least clutch quarter He had the least clutch quarterback of all time in Philip Rivers and a non sneaking quarterback as well. But there's other things though about the charges, they can't be quantified. And people like you who are lifelong Charges fans will tell you this. They were always they they would never they never play hurt. Also, there were key guys that

would get dinged and on the charges. The culture of that team under Anthony Lynn, they'd be like well we're out. I'm out. There was never guys that played through ship. They just were out, and so there's there's stuff like

that that aren't in the numbers. I'll say this, I know, I know someone who works for the Chargers, and basically everybody in that organization has so much respect for Anthony Lynn, and I think I think he was a great leader, and I think he got that team to play like I don't know, like Rufus, I agree with Rufus, I agree with you. I think Mike Tomlin is similar in a in a situation, he's a very good at certain parts of the game and the time management and the

going for it on fourth down. Stuff like that he's not good at. But because he's good at the other stuff, he's able to Now Anthony Lynn, I agree with you. I think he was a pretty good coach in certain but because he had this huge blind spot on certain things, everyone just blows it up out of proportion. But the fact is it still did cost them zillions. Well that's

the thing. Maybe let's rephrase that. Maybe what we're really saying is that the skill of being an in game on the fly coach is actually much more important than preparation pro preflop. Well, I don't know. They think it's what we observed though, so we think it's more important. Oh, I think it is more important though, because again, let's take let's take the God of All and I know it's a drinking game with me. Joseph Jackson Gibbs the

greatest coach of all time, rufus. I think you've known that, right, So he would have great game plans if if Washington was getting crushed at the half, whether on offense or defense, Petty Bone or Gibbs, Joe Gibbs and Riggie Pettybone had the ability to say, our game plan sucks. Where XS and O's geniuses. Here's what we're doing. Bang bang bang bang bang, and they'd be a different team in the second half. That's what a good coaches with all these

other guys. Marty Schottenheimer, I know how to do this. You play my way, never made a super Bowl. Steve Spurrier, We're just gonna pitch and catch. I know what I'm doing. No, you don't, jackass, right Urban What about Tony Dungey. What about a Tony Dunge type. I'm not saying it's the only way you can wear. What I'm saying is it's the single most important thing. Yeah, you can't. What's that saying?

Shot him drive in a fumble and went fourteen and two and thirteen and three and never and missed and they couldn't get out of theirs. I'm not sure why I can't use it. That's my point. People think he's a good coach. He was. I think you're I mean, you're being fooled by randomness a little bit. Oh, I don't think think about how many regular season games we have to observe relative to the the playoff games. All right, well, let's get let's get back to an lit let's get

out of the subject. Forget throw a Shotenheimer. I'll stick by it. But whatever, there's no way to me that the in game portion is less important than what happens before the game. But you're talking about in games XS and os and being able to adapt a game plan to about clock management, I'm talking about situational football. He

had no concept of that. Decisions a head coaches make during a game, and you talk so so I guess the thing is like these four down I mean, we'll think about like David not going like but you know, I mean, but I mean that that was a great in general, Like people are looking, you know a lot of these are like, well, you know, it's posting a team like you know, one and a half to win probability and those are kind of the pretty bad not

go for decisions. Yeah no, that's what I was trying to say before, Like we and I raised my hand a guilty, But who makes up the probabilities that give me a break? Some of them are not? Here? We go? Here, we go with this. Some of them are not that's some of them are huge Todd Wish note, can we see your model model is called it's called the Google loss model route and the other thing that it doesn't see here's the big problem with all the modeling. Buru.

There we go. Okay, maybe not you mr. This is why I'm here, Like, but the you know, if you watch the games a teams, here's and I wanted to bring this up anyway, So I'm glad that this came up today. You know, I watched games and you watch for instance, like in a college game, right a team will hit an eighty six yard pass and then do nothing for like five five series is in a row and their stats don't look that bad because they have

the eighty six yard pass are awful. Would you say their play success rate is awful, right, exactly, But I'm saying their yards per play doesn't look as bad and stuff like that. And also, if you're watching the game, a lot of times you see how difficult it is or how easy it is by how open people are. And I think that's one thing that just does not

come across in modeling. Not to change the subject out of this, but um, you know, I think it's one problem with with modeling that And and this goes to the fact that you're saying, oh, it's only a one or two percent probability. You know, that's all based on somebody deciding what the probabilities are, So it's not really a model. It's a person deciding, well, it is a model, someone modeling what those probabilities are for an average team

against an average opponent. Then you could say, well, you know what, you know, this team is has a higher percentage chance of getting the sport down than an average team, although you know a bad team has the worst chance, but a bad team also will have a worst chance, you know, of getting yards later on too. So let me say, let me say, let me say it a different way, Todd, And I don't know if you'll agree

with this or not. I have always found that win probabilities in baseball, because of the mechanical nature of baseball, with three bases, three outs, and innings and nine innings, that probabilities historically on historical data data are much more precise than that in football because there are so many more variables in football, Like there's like play calls, right like if you know you have a particular playball like think about think about the Eagles and the super Bowl, Philly,

Special Place or something, right like, they're like, we we have the special player. We think that this is gonna work. You know, maybe on average this scenario would only be a sixty percent conversion. We think this is gonna be like eighty percent or something, and maybe it is, and so that should affect the decision making. We could go on, but Mikey has this is if you seriously, if you

really want to get into it, like for real. But you know, I think Gil, you're making a good point that the baseball Todd on average, has a bigger average numbers. But it doesn't mean that every football decision is only a two percent decision. That's no, of course they're not all two percent. But I'm I'm saying we, I think, analyze these sort of things that don't have that have a fairly marginal impact on It's not like it's not like Anthony Lynn is costing his team like six points

a game out there with you know, worth down decision. Maybe, but I don't think we're arguing that. Yeah, well, Gil's arguing that. He said at one point, I didn't say that said it's the most important thing. Oh, I think. I think. I think in the end that in game coaching, situational decision making, ultimately in those higher leverage situations, is more important than what happens before a game starts. Yes, you must think, you must think Andy Reid is not

a very good touch that. No, I think he's good. I think he's very good. I think he has all the talent in the world right and I think he was a the talent was able to overcome any of Andy reads and he read the real knock on Andy Reid was not situational except it was just clock management at the end of games. That was his bugaboo with Anthony Lynn. We I mean, there's too many of them.

We've forgotten half. How about when they threw the hail Mary and they needed two scores and they lined up and run the ball and didn't get in and then they only had one play left there. It's just insane. There's so many things he did in Buffalo when they were There's just so many things he did throughout the

course of the year that were ludicrous. I mean, to me, you should just have someone in there like that, says, do you know a consultant sends his resume out to teams, He does about his background covering sports, betting and all and offers to be the person on the field making decisions for them. It's the old Bill Simmons thing, where Andy Reid should they should have gone to the bullpen at the two minute warning. Everything like calling somebody to

the rest of the game. But the thing is it has to be marbleized into the offensive coordinator and everything else. It's not as simple as just saying, okay, this is the guy in charge. Because let's say you're at the end of the half and there's a minute ago and you really want this to be the last. That means all the play calling has to be geared towards that.

It can't just be one guy. It has to be a guy mixed into the entire organization because that offensive quarter needs to make play calls that are going to be as successful as possible with also thinking, this is the last drive of the half marbalized if you will, marbleized marbalization. That's right, marbleization. Big fan of over marbleization. It gives it all the flavor. Rufus and I are aligned on on Amo. It is superior and even two berries, right,

but it's only two percent. It's only two at best than any other steakhouse at the most. All right, we have to Mikey has a deadline because he does a show called odds On not to be confused with the Nuts or not to be confused with odds on Lombardi, the website that he does with them all shot. Alright, So three best bets if we can get to three, Rufus, what's your first? My first? Um? Well, unfortunately this well the line I bet is not available, but so that's

not an excuse. But I'm gonna you know, I want to give people what you know. I want them to be aligned with me. So Um, the Saints. The Saints is a home well because of that great home field advantage in Washington, right is a road dog. I think that line what are we? It opened somehow took one two. Now I did not understand that line there. I mean, I think the Saints are much better team than they and people give them credit for. I think Winston was

never got the chance. I mean you want to talk about like coaching in the second half, like screwing a team over Sean Payton's like really conservative play call and thinking the defense would just close out the Giants. And I mean the Saints do have a very good defense. They were I had them as the best basically the best defensive football last year in terms of the predictive metrics. Um,

they have not been quite as good. Um this year they have not been good passing the ball, but um, actually no, their defense still has been really good percentile against the rush against the past, scoring a ficiency and eight in play success. So, UM, I just think that there. I mean, I I don't think that Washington is anywhere in the same tier, um in terms of of you know, ratings. So Saints pick number one, I think, and I mean on a neutral field I have that is a is

a touchdown spread? Do you really? Wow? I'm not saying I'm right. I haven't been right so far this year, but so there is that. But I betted it minus one. So College Place, you're doing well, College very college Place. I'll call up the spreadsheets when Duke's losing seventeen and towards the end of the half to Kansas. Take the Duke team total over. I don't care what it is and ben a billion dollars which book and will give me the billion? And the circa limits are pretty good.

But okay, they don't even do it. Mikey what year? I think I have really square plays this week? But this is this is I don't get the Packers number and Cincinnati three, I mean, that makes no sense to me. It should be like one right the other way, I think it should be five and a half. It's you know,

I will never Let's not forget for a half. Cincinnati should have been down seventeen to nothing to Jacksonville on Thursday night and let's well, no, I don't think he should have went There were three possessions for each team in the first half. Why wouldn't you go up three possessions. So there were exactly three possessions for each team. You don't want to be up three Urban he's thinking about,

you know, going to the bar in Columbus. But so this is how I led the numbers game the next morning to he very nice visual so he it was the curse. And again this is something that the mainstream announcers never mentioned, right, the curse of having third and goal at the eight with one left and half of fourteen. Nothing. Anything that happens. You either are kicking a field goal, if it's a loss, no gain or very short gain,

or it's a touchdown, you twenty one and nothing. The one thing that can't happen is if you gain seven yards right, six and a half or seven yards, because then it tweaks your brain into thinking, oh now, which they did and they got stuffed that. So everybody says all the fourth down plays the key play of the game. They stuff to know it's the third down play. Was it such a quirk of foot? You're Kevin Stefanski only gotta get four yards because he's going forth and from

the fourth. No matter what that was. That was all my notes of the games last week. I just took random fourth down plays that they called. I didn't mind the Carolina fourth down when they were down twelve points in the third quarter in their own territory. But the Colts one at the end of the first half, when they were up seven to three, fourth down at their own and they went for it. I was like, Okay, maybe we're getting a little too crazy. I mean, you

liked it. I'm never gonna fault the team for going forward on fourth down at their own twenty eight up seven to three. Well, how fourth and what fourth too? They're going against their going against an average team. And when I say an average team, I mean a team that could never score in the history of football. How about what Taylor went fourth in one with three minutes left in the third quarter against the Vikings in Week one, up by fourteen from his own thirty I mean, you're

supposed to get that fourth and one. You're supposed to, but if you don't, you put a team right back in the game. Vikings only had one drive of more than eight plays the whole game, and you're up fourteen. It was fourth and one. I like, okay, yeah, there wasn't three sounds probably probably not the right four. I took the Packers, I can. I will not forget them. They should have been down seventeen. Nothing. I will not forget. How did the Packers get blown up by the Saints

in Week one? I mean, that's a very strange game. Though the Saints had five touchdowns in twelve yards at one point. I mean, it was like it was ridiculous. Were we were fooled into thinking that the Saints offense was better than it was in that first week? Many of us, it's really not it's a bad offense with a great defense or a very good defense. It is

it's a very good defensive team. Yeah. Anyhow, I'll never forget in Chicago in Week two how he got sacked nine times and through three interceptions and just totally outmatch. It was only fields coming in the game and throwing interceptions that made that game close. I don't think Cincinnati's that good of a team. I still think they're tied with Pittsburgh is the worst team in that division, And maybe you give a nod to Pittsburgh, but I don't

think it's close. I think the Packers are appreciably better if this game was in Lamb, But wouldn't it be six the Packers. I would think anyhow, I'll take the Packers minus three. Pittsburgh. Is Pittsburgh better off a big better Mason, Rudolph Mason, Rudolph Mason, Rudolph doesn't Mason. It doesn't better for for all of time, I think it's may think it's still. I mean, my numbers say that because they're not like but yeah, you know, at this point, it feels like it's it feels like nobody can be

worse than big Ben. But he's probably better than Bason. I mean, what about Nathan Peterman if he was on the you know, Dwayne Haskins not mentioned in this conversation. Big Ben's taking one. By the way, I'm not a Big Ben apologist. Big Ben is not as bad as everybody's saying. He's in Pittsburgh. Should we listen to are a total Big Ben apologist. By the way, I am not that. I'm not a Pittsburg Steelers offensive line is terrible and the receivers get no separation whatsoever. So it's

not all big beness, but they do. They have the kid from Notre Dame Reiver. You know what, Steelers are overrated. The the receivers are overrated. We're going back to the time because Antonio Brown was there. First of all, Juju Smith Schuster was never a number one. He was never a number one. They made him up better than than he was. What about his USC I thought he was at USC all. I'm saying is if you watch the Steeler games, you see the receivers are never open. That's

because Matt Canada. We're in Barking Canada. Is uh, you know, like no motion, no like I mean, I'm not nextus nose guy. But I've you know, I've read I've read Twitter Big Ben third and fourth down lays. This year, third and fourth down, there's been fifty two of them. Twenty four of those fifty two. He's throwing the ball short of the sticks. Think about that. Yeah, it was pretty offensive. Fine, is an absolute horrendous unit. You if you can't win a football game with no offensive line,

I give you that. But if you're twenty four of fifty two are short of the sticks, there is an element of braindeadedness. Okay, I'm not saying he's you have to take risks, you do, I mean okay, And I'm not saying that's like someone's throwing away on fourth down. That's why would you do that? It's cart he just want to take It's like it's like roof, Like what you said about Anthony Lynn. I kind of agree with

you about Anthony Lynn. I don't think as an overall football coach, I don't think he's as bad as everyone makes it. Okay, as an offensive coordinator, Todd, I think he's doing a fine job with the Lions. Well, I think think about this like, Okay, are you the same person you were five years ago? Absolutely not? Okay. People change and grow and learn, and I don't know if Anthony Lynn has that mind or I mean maybe some people. But wait, wise they certainly do. All right, Todd, Todd,

what's your first pick? Wait? Wait? So so because you know on the game one pick, but the other one I took, I took Cincinnati actually plus three and a half. But I don't we're just going around the horn on the pick. But I wanna, I wanna, I want to rebut please in my rebut I think you'll appreciate this, Gil. It's just going to be one name. Joe Barry's is a Washington band. You understand, like, why would any team

hire that guy's defensive coordinator. It's brutal, Like I don't understand how they think that's a step up from Mike the team. Yeah, but you had the teen was so bad in the championship game. In one game, he was really bad. They never I mean, the Sea should have gotten the Seahawk, should have gotten rid of Russell Wilson after that Super Bowl. He cost them the Super Bowl, right the second Super Bowl. I think he cost them the second super Bowl making a point. I don't think so.

I think Daryl Bevel costs him second Super You know, that's a good point. Step out gifts as a as adjuster. And I thought Pete Carroll at USC was the best college at halftime of changing a game plan that I've ever seen. Just to throw that, I don't know. His second half numbers were amazing. If you met the second half in USC when they had that run with Reggie Bush.

I every week I used to win on that. It was like literally like fifteen and two at some point, didn't matter whether they were behind or head or I

mean they were probably always ahead. They usually weren't ahead by that much, or they were behind at halftime, and then they would just blow the doors off people in the second I remember that isn't because they're deeper and they're like you know, later on in the game when you know you're bringing in the backups and stuff, their backups are just going to crush the other teams back. That could be a factor. Yes, I hope Pete Carroll

watched that Brandon Staley Running Back Running Game dissertation. But did you have more than just the two words Joe Barry? Not really? I mean I basically I think that the green Bay defense thinks. Do you believe Cincinnati will win this game? No? Is that your second pick? But he took three and a half. I took three. Let's be fair. I mean I make it. I make it. I make the line basically a little less than one one yea. So it's you take. So you're saying Cincinnati is the

equivalent of the best team in the NFC North. I think Cincinnati's point seven points worse than an average team, and so Green Bay's an average team. Do you know there're two point four points better than an average team, but three one and then you give them two points in this game? It all it all comes down to home field advantage here, basically, So would you take him at current line three, Like what, I actually bet them myself. No, I would not bet them myself, but being honest and

half on Monday, I'm not going to bed. Yeah, we gotta go. Okay, my number one pick is going to be the Jacksonville Jaguars plus four and a half. What what was that I said? I heard it audible? Uh? Okay, here's the thing. This is not so much a pick for Jacksonville. It's a pick against the Tennessee Titans. Um. You know, I don't really like betting against the team

and just got embarrassed by the Jets. But I just think the Tennessee Titans defense is not ready for prime time, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are not as bad as everyone thinks they are. On offense. Against Cincinnati, they moved the football. They did move the football against Cincinnati with not a lot of trouble. I think everyone will move the football against the Tennessee defense. I just think it's a terrible defense.

And I think if you're getting four and a half points at home in a National Football League game, you have to be able to if you're gonna cover four and a half, you have to be able to do something on defense, and this team does not want to do anything on defense, So you've got to be ahead by more than ten at the end. Otherwise the backdoors wide open. I'm taking Jacksonville plus four and a half because I just don't think Tennessee with that defense should

be favored, you know, that much against anybody. They just can't play defense. God, do you discount the distraction of Urban Buyer? The players saying they don't. They think he's a clown, he's a joke. The owner has no faith in him. I'm O, yes, I know, And I like when that's in there because now everyone's going to talk about that all week. Oh my god, Urban Meyer got a half lap dance. And was it a real lap dance or a full lap dance or a half a

lap dance. I don't know what really happened with Urban Meyer. Oh my god, now we can't do the X and nose because Urban got a lap dance. And now you know, my career as wide receiver is totally ruined because of Urban's lap dance. You know what, Guys still want to make catches. Guys don't want to run the football, Guys don't want to make that Because I still want to play in the National Football League, So all this ESPN

hubbub is for me. It helps me. I'll take the extra half a point I'm getting for the hubbub plus four and a half. I loved tendency on guessing lines and minus four. I will lay the minus four and a half because of Urban Meyer. That's my that's my second play. That's your second. By the way, if you could just shut up one second time and let me speak, I really would appreciate it. Um. The the thing about first of all, I love the Orlando Sentinel describing that

as someone dancing close to his lap. I love that description. UM. I thought guessing lines Tennessee was was a quick reaction for me. I thought that line was too low. Tennessee has the get out of jail free card, even without when they didn't have their wide receivers last year. By just tucking it under Derrick Henry's stomach and just getting out of dodge, they should have been killed in that Jets game seven different times. They somehow managed to make it all the way. They did lose in the end.

I get it. In overtime, I think the Titans they will have at least one of the two wide receivers back. That's huge for that offense. And I actually do think that the urban Meyer thing matters, and I'll tell you why. Normally I wouldn't, but if you're listening to what those players are saying, that ship is corrosive. They are not feeling this, dude whatsoever. I actually don't think that all of their heads are in this game. So I'm taking Tennessee.

It's it's well far beyond this lapdown. He had him hitting in O T A s which was illegal. He says, we made the cuts on COVID decasy. I mean, everything he's done has had a false ring to it, thank you. Was all that true in the first half against Cincinnati when they should have been up seventeen nothing were they corrossedst They were corrossed by the fourth decision at the gone. That's where they lost the faith. They're still professionals, and

they still want to play football. I mean, come on, we can't, I know, but look, there's obviously something to what you guys are saying. And I don't think urban Meyer is a good coach at all. But that's already in the line. All right, We'll just play it out we'll see what happens. What's your second pick? My second one is on the New York Jets. What's the Jetropolitans? Spread right here? New York Jets are I have him

as plus three minus one plus three. I liked them better at three and a half obviously when guessing lines came, but I'll stick to the plus three. I just don't believe the Atlanta Falcons. Certainly they shouldn't have had the hook. They shouldn't be a three and a half point favorite. This is a game is in London, by the way, over anybody, Um, I just you watched the Falcons play football.

Maddie Ice just doesn't appear to have the the decision making or the time to make the proper decisions whatever it is. Washington's defense wasn't really didn't really crush him, and he still had issues. There was, by the way, there was a play where Chase Young got called for a roughing that really could have made that game a lot easier for Washington. H he got Yeah, he got nailed for hands to the face. Washington had to win

it sort of dramatic fashion. But they can't stop anybody. Um, and I think the Jets coming off that win, are buoyed by it. I think you're giving me the points on the Jets again. I would love the three and a half more, but I'll take the three in London and be pretty happy about it. Fading the Falcons pause. I don't I don't know that you're getting three touchdowns

from Corduall anymore. And I think the Jets, if they're if their defense and their and their defense has been playing well, they'll key on who can beat them, and uh, I don't think Atlanta has multiple players that can. So I'll take Jets plus three, Rufus number two, number three, whatever we're on with Rufe, he'd be three for Rufus. I think I already gave. It's gonna be Todd your second that your second was your second pick the Bengals are No, Yes, well I didn't think. I guess it

is he wanted a big stage. Yes, it has to be a second pick. Yeah, I don't have anything. I mean, I don't have anything better than that. Honestly, I show very little value on the board this week's second us. None of us do. But we're having a podcast anything, We're having a podcast. All right, Todd, what's number two. Now, now you're supposed to talk Todd talk when you're supposed to go okay, So I'm putting Rufus down for Bengals.

Plus three is his second pick. Um, My second pick is gonna be the Las Vegas Raid as I will take the Las Vegas Raid as minus the five and a half. And the reason I want the Raid is, first of all, I love the fact that they lost on on Monday night. And because now people will be like, oh wait, maybe the Raiders aren't an't that good? This

is really because the Bears aren't good on offense. Because the Bears went down and scored some points against the Lions doesn't mean anything to me, because I don't think the Lions can stop anyone. I think Field is gonna have trouble even if they bring in dal And I don't care what they're doing. They're not good on offense,

and they're certainly not good on offense. And allowed stadium, even if there's only point seven of a home field advantage, that Las Vegas stadium is probably pretty wild and and and rowdy. And now you're gonna ask just justin Fields to go into a rowdy stadium and hang with the Raiders and the Bears. The Bears defense is not this

vaunted defense that it used to be. The Lions were inside the ten yard line like literally a hundred times when Gil and Mikey were both unfortunate as was I had the over in the d game because the Lions couldn't score inside the ten yard line against the Bears. But the Bear they were moving the football. Don't tell me the Raiders can't move the football against the Bears. I think they can move the football against the Bears.

I think the Raiders are above average offense. I'm not saying they're amazing, but they're above average offense, and I think they will move the ball against the Bears. And this is just gonna come down to the fact, I don't see how the Bears are gonna stay inside five and a half points because I don't think they can score enough point. So if they get to seventeen and

the Raiders are twenty four, you still cover. Give me the Raiders minus five and a half Detroit last week, just a Butcher's your point first in gold Down seven and nothing at the eight, premature shotgun staff hits golf and the Gonads Ricochet's over the offensive line and do to a bellow Nichols hands uh that goes down as a fumble by the center. Fourth and goal at the five left in the second quarter, down fourteen and nothing. They go for it, Jared, if there's a horrific pass

to the out to the outside receiver. Third and goal of the Chicago three, three or nine left in the second quarter, strip sec and then at the end Teasers blew it right because they they had a chance crushed by getting a third down play within a yard of conversion. Same thing we talked about with the Bengals. They of all things that could have happened. You don't want to do that, right, just kick the field goal. Teasers will win.

Instead one yard short they go for it and they blow it again, or he has to kick the field goal there to make it at one position. I don't. By the way, the Matt Naggy thing. All of a sudden, he's told us up a five thousand times that Andy Dalton's gonna be the quarterback of his handy Dalton. Do you think Ryan Pace Finally like whispered in his ear, somebody somebody did playing. Somebody didn't had to be Maybe Virginia MCCASKI, who knows, maybe George Allison somebody did h

rufus number three? If you have them, I guess who's number two? Jesus Christ, Jesus, you know, I'm o you, I've got two Tennessee tighter of that sounds like me on the golf course with Jeff trying to figure out the handicap, like and what like, like what do I need? What do I need to make here? Jeff? Jeff gets a bad at you. So Mike second k is officially Tennessee minus four and a half. That's correct, Okay, no problem, all right, number three. If I have to take a third,

I'm gonna take Seattle then, oh all right, Seattle. Tonight's Seattle plus two and a half. His numbers say otherwise that's a teaser, like for make for sure? I think most wait do we know? Is uh? What's what's bridgewater situation in the concussion protocol? I don't know yet. I haven't decided yet. Yeah, yeah, I mean I might not like I'm assuming actually assuming that what goes? I mean, I like pittsburtty there, but but you know, I don't know. If Bridgewater goes, it's no play. If i'd let me

see what's my number two points? Actually, I probably actually know what. We're gonna take away Seattle. There we're gonna say Pittsburgh. Sorry, We're gonna go to Pittsburgh because I still think. I still think I like Pittsburgh. Even if Locke is the quarterback. What about if Rudolph is the quarterback? I don't know, what about if it's Rudolph Bridgewater. This is my head's about to explode because that's that was how was minus one and a half before that. I'm

taking Pittsburgh. It's my third, not Seattle. Seattle is probably gonna win, right. I take the Enzers against Drew lack in that because Drew Lawk stinks. But if it's Steady Bridgewaters don't want to go against that guy. That guy don't make no mistakes in that, We're not gonna be able to put the ball on the ends on So you know, to me, it's all about the Denver quarterback in that. Thank you God, thank you. The rule is the rule. I'll take the Carolina Panthers and lay the

three points against these Eagles. I was gonna do that. I can't bet this. This Eagle's team refuses to run the ball at all. I don't see to your point about Brandon Steely and how you have to run the ball just to get established the physicale. They don't. They absolutely don't run the ball at all. Zero zero running the tips. I don't think Carolina play well in the second half against that. Look at Dallas, gonna move the ball in anybody. They'll move the ball in the Saints.

That's a good offensive team. They came back, they made that game competitive. I think Matt Rule is building a good team in that spot in Carolina, and I think this is a bad spot for Philadelphia coming off the home lass to have to go on the road here. I thought this line would be four, it's three. I'll lay it, okay, Mikey, Why is it coming down? That was almost my third pick was Carolina. Why is it coming down? I don't know. I asked somebody in sports

media dot number three. My number third pick was gonna be Panthers. The only reason I'm not taking the Panther. I'm definitely taking the Panthers in my circle millions, because to get five picks, you have to come up with something. So I'm definitely taking the Panthers. There. But I just the only thing that scares me is it's it's a one in three team against the three and one team and spreads. And I know in the NFL that's always a dangerous thing to do because they all revert to

the mean, almost all of them. So that's why I'm not gonna go with Panthers is my number three pick here. But what I will take is my number three pick is the Ravens under forty six. And um the reason I like the Ravens under forty six is because, um wait, who I have Ravens against Indiana Cults, right, Ravens under forty six against the Colts. I I am not a believer in the Colts. I don't believe the fact you can go down to Miami and beat a team that

has absolutely no offense whatsoever means anything at all. I am not a believer in the Colts. I still don't believe in Carson Wentz. And I think the Ravens defense is starting to come around. They really put the clamps on Denver last week. And I mean the other games where they didn't play as well defensively were against the Chiefs and against the Raiders. I gotta kind of throw those out as those are above average offensive teams. I

don't think Indianapolis is above average offensive team. And I think this is gonna be one of those old school Ravens games where they run the ball a lot, play real good defense and win seven or something. So I'm gonna go under forty six and uh, I hope that I can get there in my third pid Alright, any square than I've already been. What's the New England line? New England Patriots? Are I have him at night nine? Okay? Um, this was the other one on guessing lines. I'll just

go with my guessing lines instincts. I listen, I'm not like Chris Collinsworth and now Michael's ready to like put Mac Jones in the Hall of Fame. That was a little ridiculous on Sunday night. But this Houston team, as long as Davis Mills is the quarterback, and he will be the quarterback this week. Still no Trod Taylor yet. This Houston team might be one of the worst teams we've ever seen in modern history. They are really bereft of any talent, with the exception of Brandon Cooks New England.

This is Bill Belichick versus David Culley. It's a whole bunch of points to give away on the road. But you know what, I don't like anything else better. So I'm taking New England minus the nine and hoping that Bill Belichick will figure out a way to blow this team out. Are you gonna use New England and survivor? Girl, I'm thinking about it. The problem is they have two offensive linemen. Now, there covid situation. I don't even think the Texans are the worst defense in football? Really, who

do you think the worst defenses? And then Jacksonville and the Texans aren't that bad on defense. They're bad on offense right exactly, They're just like abysmal unoffensive right now? That is what I was referring. Now, how about you, Todd, what are you gonna do? You gonna use Minnesota this week? Well?

I started like looking at the next couple of weeks, and um, I mean, I'd like to use the I'd like to use the Cowboys really to be honest, but I can't use the Cowboys because I need them for Thanksgiving. So I'm not going to use the Cowboys. And I don't want to use Tampa Bay here against Miami because I need Tampa Bay for later as well. So it really comes down to Minnesota against the Lions, which scares me because I hate betting on Kirk Cousins and and

maybe the Panthers. I mean, I don't know. There's a lot of options this week and none making feel good A great I know you have confidence in yeah, okay, what do you do now? To Casey and the Browns up to eight? I think this is gonna be a tremendous game and we'll see really where both teams are. This Brown's defense is nasty. I said, you know, Mac Brown and I both like this as our top play last week. I saw his second play. I said, Cousins

had never faced this kind of pressure. After the first drive, they never got in the red zone. Again. That Minnesota offense, Baker Mayfield didn't do anything, not paint enough, zero, couldn't hit anybody, couldn't hit anybody running open anywhere. You said you got a torn labor in his non throwing shoulder. They say no. I was like, we're using that as an excuse. I'll take the Browns up to eight and the Cowboys down to one. Todd, That's what I'm doing.

That's exactly the same one I'm doing, Rufus. I'm doing because I don't see I don't see the Cowboys losing to the Giants. The Cowboys have a have a nice looking offense. I mean, this is becoming a juggernaut offense. And I just don't see the Giants, you know, hanging in the game. Also, the Giants kind of they shot their load last week with their ridiculous winner down with nine and a half minutes to go, and somehow they win that game. I don't even know how they won

the game. But I'll take Browns plus eight. I think the Browns will hang with the Chargers and Cowboys. If you're in a draft, King's juristiction or anybody. NFL comeback Player of the Year Dak Prescott is only in quotes minus one. You almost have to bet that for whatever they'll let you bet. Who's the second choice? Joe Burrow? What's he coming back from? And in five games they don't give comeback Player of the Year for five games.

It's like a it's like a lifetime achievement thing. Rufus, you're too I'm gonna tease the Browns and then with Seattle as the Pilots. I'm gonna tease the uh the Browns with the New England Patriots down against Houston Brown's Patriots for me Seattle plus Seattle plus eight and a half in Browns plus eight for Rufus and you are gilt. Who do you have? Gil Oh? We have nine on the Patriots down to three. I'll still do it. So you're going Pats Pats minus three. And what was the

other one? Brown's Browns plus eight? No, Stanford Loong. Well they're on the road anyway, so it would have been wong ish um. Okay, So final two questions, big favorite, most likely to who's out right? My computer just went down, so Bucks, you can read them out for Bucks minus ten over the Dolphins, Vikings minus nine over the Lions, Patriots minus nine over the Texans, Cowboys minus seven over the Giants, Ravens minus seven over the Colts, seen eight

and a half on the Patriots. Hair. First of all, you gotta cut that out because I'm looking here at the board. It's not just Circus Circus not the only casino. And I made the goddamn rules on this podcast, Todd, I know exactly what you're doing. Jesus mother. I mean, unless we're gonna be talking about incarnate word tomorrow plus the true dads. All right, So who's the most likely

to lose outright? Of those rufus Vikings Vikings, Vikings. I think that the Lions offense did move the ball, as you all said, and then weird things happened to the ball hitting off Dolf shoulders. That was that was weird. That was weird. That was the weirdest thing. That was a weird way. Um yeah, I think, yeah, visional matchup, not as much on bit advantage, etcetera, etcetera. I agree they can, they can and take the Vikings, So I can't answer the Vikings is the most likely to lose.

I'm gonna go against you, Jo and say the Patriots, I don't know, you've got an offensive lineman out a rookie quarterback. I just think it offensive. I think is big because it's to your point, none of these picks make you feel calmed of them feel good, Todd. You know what I'm with you, Mikey. I don't trust the Pats. There's just too many passes the Hunter Henry for six yards. You gotta go eight hundred players to get down the field. I mean not Mac mac Jones. You know, come on, man,

he's not that great. And the answer is clearly the Minnesota Vikings, clearly because I can see Jared Golf doing all of a sudden that that offense is feisty enough on Detroit. They shouldn't have lost that game last week. Oh, I hate Kirk Cousins. I'm with you. I hate Kirk just I want to I want to shot of you with a Minnesota survivor play when Kirk Cousins is jacking it up for you, I'm probably gonna need a sixty six yard field goal on the last play of the

game to beat the Lions again. Okay, last question, because Mike, he's got a run bizarro world. You must pick a side. You must bet a side in every single one of these games, except for one one that you're like, you know what, I'll bet these fifteen but this one, man, forget it. I'm not betting it with your money. What is that game? Rufus Tennessee, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Jacksonville Chief, hear your opinions, heard, you know, everybody's opinion here on the

Urban Meyer situation. I don't know. He's right, Yeah, We don't know either, chief spills, chief spills, rufus, rufus. You don't know about the urban Mier. But do you have a definitive answer on whether it was a half or a full lap dance? Oh? Three quarters, Mike, Yeah, I'm with you. Chiefs Bills, Chiefs Bills, any outcomes possible. Yeah, I can't even teach the Bills update. And because they could get blown out in this game as well as they can win it, Todd, game you want to part them?

I don't really want to pick the Packers Bengals game because I think the Bengals are feisty, and I don't know the Packers either. You know that Aaron Rodgers every like once in a while, he just throws a duty in there, you know, like against the New Orleans Saints. He doesn't really try or something. You never know what those Packers, I don't trust them. We're getting to the point in the NFL where that question should be rephrased the only game you want a part of? Yeah, but

we're doing a podcast. If you could erase fifteen of these but only play one, which Todd before we go, Todd, It's we're beginning to baseball playoffs in mass today after the two wild card games. Do you have an opinion on either league or World Series champion? Well, I I've been horrendous in baseball this year, so don't listen to me. But I guess if I had to say, like a sleeper pick, maybe I maybe think about the Braves as a sleeper pick, just because some of their starters are

not bad. They do hit the ball, and nobody's really given him any credits, so you probably get a decent price. Um, you know, I don't know. I have a ticket free ticket that I got on from DraftKings on on Baseball Champion, and I took Houston plus twenty one, so I'll be rooting for Houston. You, Mikey, I think it's so wide open this year. I don't know what to make of anything. Definitively, I got Giants and Rays meeting in the World Series. I think the Rays are the best team. Does that

mean they'll get there? I don't know. What do you think about Larus's decision to start Lynn off an injury. Yeah, I would have started Ron, but I mean to go righty, lefty, righty. I don't know. I played the Astros today, but I don't know, you really any concern about the Giants not having a bunch of real top line starters. Does that concern you, I'll tell you why, because that's that has

always been the thing, right with baseball playoffs. Hey, the Giants in this particular case aren't built like the Brewers and say the Dodgers are with front line starting. But really, if you think about what has won for baseball teams in recent history, and I'm talking about like the last two three years, it's just having a whole bunch of great pictures and mixing and matching. Whether it was the

Royals when they did the seven eight nine thing. The Rays are the greatest example this, the Rays that figured out they've sort of hacked baseball with this. They get that they didn't need those three guys. Everyone's like, how amazing is this? They lost Morton, they lost uh Glass now to the Tommy John two and snow and the Rays have figured out that's not what That's not the

only way to win at baseball. And so I don't think I think the Giants have lots of really good pictures, So I think people are underestimating them, even in the postseason. So you know, and americanly, only the White Sox, if healthy, have a great starting rotation. All the teams are mixed and match type of deal in the man and then actually gets much different because you have the Dodgers and the and the Brewers. Literally, though, you're right, any one

of these anyone could. I would not be surprised if any one of these teams won the World Series? Should be fun, rufus. Any thoughts on baseball? You you've retired from the baseball games, rufus? Do do? College used to control our lives? I did? They all not talked about this at breakfast yet? Yeah, I used to control our lives like it's I took the year off during the pandemic, and I've just realized how I didn't miss it at all, and I have enough going like I I My problem

is not having time to fill. I used to sit at the hard Rock Mikey watching baseball, and I used to question my existence on there if I'm like, why I am? How am I gonna care about this? On my deathbed, I spent so much time handicapping and watching baseball. I was like, no, I can't do this anymore. Rufus, how come you don't do college basketball, there's some unbelievable opportunities. Do you not like college matter? Are you busy with

something else? I just have enough? Like you can't do everything? Well, that's the thing. Yes, you know, my golf is what I make most of my money on, and that's you know, I have unabated. I have some other stuff going on too. I mean, it's just not enough hours in a day. That sounds for me in mental bandwidth. It's how it is for me with tennis and doing all the shows I do. I just I can't like people like, oh, you're sucking at football. Hey man, something had to go.

First of all, everyone's sucking. Everyone's gonna suck at football, even if they're great. As as Roxy Roxborough said to me at Piero's years ago, Gil no one wins at the NFL long term, No one never forget. I would say the end game is not true though yeah this is before acast though not true. In a podcast, that's right for rufus people. Thank you, Rufus, appreciate it. Man Double Duty from yesterday, Todd Wished Ever from his mom's

cork addic in Pittsburgh. Pia and Mike Palm, co host of odds on with a mall show at Visa and of course Derrick Stephen's Conciliary and Tim Lawson for hanging out on the back. Thank you for listening to the megapod. Good luck with your week five picks in the Nation Football League.