Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 4 Preview

television program. There is you know outside of that Peyton Manning Eli Manning thing. Uh. It is a primetime action is my buddy Matt Brown? How you doing? Matt? Doing well? Doing well, feeling good? Coming off of a bounce back week in week three after week two is pretty rough, so hopefully keep the thing everything going here in week four, you had a monster week with teasers galore, as many folks did. But you you you you righted the ship. I believe we righted the ship on this show. Didn't

we the board Todd or the records? Last week? Yes? Uh? To give you the records from last week. Everybody had a good week, even Gill. Even Gilly had this guy. Gilly goes to and one to move the three and six, trying to trying to pull things together. I will say this, Gilly is three and no on teasers, and that's what's most important, because what person in the right mind were better pregame NFL game. You gotta be you gotta be a crazy person to do that. So Gilly hits three

and no with teasers. Mikey. Mikey goes two and one to move to five and four. By the way, I will say Gil and Mikey were both extremely fortunate to get the Arizona Cardinals minus seven and a half. After

I'll explain it. I'll explain it to you ready with my explanation, Okay, At thirteen to ten, Mr urban Meyer handed the ball off a man named Robinson eight times in a row, and he literally jammed it down their throats to go up n late third quarters, you're down nine, laying seven and a half late third quarter in an NFL game. You're not supposed to come. Would you like to point this out time or should I todd? They were gifted a touchdown on that field goal nine yard

field goal return from wait. I'll give you that great wait and then let me finish. Now, late in the game, there were two backdoor touchdown possibilities that did not happen. All I'll say is Mikey and Gilly are very fortunate people. Hashim doesn't hate. Now. I will now go on to

the record of Mikey's teasers. He is two and one, not as good as me and Gil and I had another two and one to go to six and three with some really solid Browns and the New Orleans game under I only lost the fixed game Green Bay in San Francisco moved to six and three and two and oh on teasers to be in first place as all. As well with the world. I thought you're three and o on teasers. I am three. You know you're two and one. Me and Gill are three and on teasers.

Mikey has two and one on teessers. You just said too and now, okay, so give me credit there. I'm sorry, Matt, Sorry you had to sit through all that. Apologies. Hey, I'm I'd like to see where I'm where I'm stepping into here, alright, Circle Circle Million Circus Survivor updates sir, you know one entry is fifteen and oh and this is the final week of the first quarter. Wow, one singular entry. We've never we went back and looked, we've never had an entry go fifteen and over any plus

hears of doing this this contest. So he I think he leads ten or eleven other people at fourteen and one and then in survivor not much carnage. This past week we went from to ninety seventeen. We lost six, five of who failed to submit a pick. Uh twenty eight giants. Todd Wishnev had the Ravens and it was awesome watching him text through that final sequence. By the way, I just want to say I was I was having flashbacks to last year when my good friend Gilly Iceman

had the New York Jets against the Raiders. He needed the Raiders. I had the Raiders, right, he had the Raiders. The Raiders had one last play from the forty five yard line, absolutely no chance to win the game, absolutely no chance until the Jets decided to allow a very fast man behind the defense scored the touchdown and Gilly wag crazy. Now I hadn't even crazier scenario. I think it wasn't even crazier, I really do which was which

was a lower wind probability? Your final play for the Hail Mary or whatever, or fourth and nineteen from the sixteen with thirty six seconds and no time outs. Well, the fourth and nineteen no timeouts missed the lay of game penalty sixty six yard field has never been done before the history of the league. That bounces off the crossbar and goes said, I think you probably win, Greg, will you have zero covered? Should never ever been done on the last play of the game either in the

history of the NFL. By the way, Sammy, no one's talking about the fact that Sammy Watkins, who pought the fourth down ball instead of running out of bounds, tried to run up field and cost them about fifteen seconds and that's why they had It was just unbelievable that game, and Hollywood Brown dropped about four d touchdown passes. So anyways, if I end up winning Survivor, that will go down in the animals is one of the most unbelievable. It'll

it'll go down in the anals as well. Anyone who had Baltimore, anyone who had Baltimore, who wins this thing, that will be the turning point. How many people I'm ten and five in um in millions, which picks me tied for uh e seven, like four five hundred place with the basically, I'm the tenth to the twenty second percentile right now in millions of ten and five? You were we interrupted you. I'm sorry? What else? Two didn't admit in millions? But then I was one of them? Really,

I didn't submit it millions. My buddy kiss seems mother died, and then my girl came into town, and I completely forgot. I had nothing to play for anyway, so you know, yeah, but wait, don't you want to play for the for the season long? Yeah? Loser ship? No, I mean I was. I was. I would have gone three and two, so what gonna matter? It wasn't gonna matter either way. I'm just playing for quarterlies at this point. Survivor is the only thing I care about. I failed to put him

the mill caring about other things. If you failed to put in your Survivor, you'd really be saying if I failed to put on my Survivor, shoot me. Yeah, alright, I was upset that I didn't put in Daniel Collins this morning. You should have been well, at least one set in you should have been. Okay, here's the deal. We start with the best bets. Oh no, first before we've been doing best bets Thursday night. Thought. It's another uh, non sexy matchup on a Thursday night, but very teasable

and maybe survivorable, if you know what I mean. Matt will start with you. Any thoughts here, I think I already know years But for this audience, Cincinnati seven and a half point favorites at home against Jacksonville tonight, how are you playing this or how have you played it already? Yeah? I mean I've got the baggles and some and some teasers here. I mean, I understand the defensive I understand the defensive injuries here. Just Jesse Bates is gonna be

out for the Bengals. You also have te Higgins who's gonna be out from wide receiver standpoint. They played without him last week. Anyways, that's not going to be that crazy jo w a woose a. It's gonna be out as well for them. That said, they do get back Trey Waynes, so that's not that big of a loss

for them in this whole thing. And you know, look, the when we're real look at this, it's just the mismatch here of defense versus offense, which I didn't think I would be saying whenever we looked at this game preseason. But the Cincinnati defense has been for real so far. I mean, you take a look, and every single one of the advanced statistics agree. There the fourth overall defense d b o A, the the ninth overall defense according

to Pro Football Focus. You look at their PA per play allowed, their sixth in the NFL, there their third, and success rate allowed against, And I mean, it's just really really has come together here with a team that has invested a ton in the defense, not only through the draft but in free agency as well. They're allowing just seventy eight yards per per per game running right now two point eight adjusted line yards at both our

top five figures in the NFL. I mean, it's just been a complete, a complete one eighty from the for this defense from what we saw last year for this b Beagles team. And of course we know just how bad the Jags offense has been. Trevor Lawrence is a load lowest graded passer in the NFL out of every single quarterback that has taken at least of their snaps, which means he's lower than justin fields and lower than

Davis Mills. He leads the league in turnover worthy plays, he leads a league in interceptions as we know as well. And I don't see them turning this around on a short week going up against his Beagles team. So if they only have to win this by a in or a point and a half or even two, if this thing happens to get to eight before kickoff before you listen to this and you take it down below the below the three, I still think it is a very very,

very good bet. Um. I cannot see the Bengals losing this game outside of a course which we always have to say, some sort of catastrophic injury situation. But this defense versus this offense is a big time mismatch. Say that any concern, go ahead, go ahead. I was gonna say, Matt, any concern with the fact that the Bengals did show up well on defense against Minnesota, but then the next two teams they played, Bears and Steelers, are not exactly

offensive barn Burners. Well, you know, one of the things that these advanced statistics are meant to do is try to strip out, you know, a lot of the noise around that and strictly get into what they're what they're doing on the field, regardless of opponent. And so I'm actually not really all that worried about. I mean, everything seems to point to this being for real. And again, I mean, Trey Hendrickson is a guy that they went out and spend a lot of money in free agency on.

He's our got fifteen quarterback pressures on the season as well, so he's paying dividends early for this team. So and it's not just one way or the other. They've been good against the past and good against the run, which typically if there's some sort of smoking mirrors, there's like a way to attack a defense. But they've been eight against the past, second against the run so far throughout

the short season. So even if they regress a little bit, even if it is a little bit not real, that still puts them kind of in the top ten in every single aspect of the defensive of the defensive side of the ball. So against this Jags defense, I don't see it really rearing its ugly head here at all. I like it as a teaser leg makes makes all the sense of the world to me. Should I play it? In Survivors? The question, well, I think it comes down

to do you have multiple entries? And if you have multiple entries, I think you use one or two of them on Cincinnati. But I think if you have one entry, it's tough to stomach. If you go down with Cincinnati. The problem is there's really three obvious choices this week, Saints finishing, let him, let me finish. That's what I'm gonna say, America. They're part of that three game window right that the Bills actually the Bills in Saints game right to save. So I would worry though about using them.

I mean, Matt pointed out the injuries. Jacksonville is actually healthier than Cincinnati going into this matchup. Cincinnati is not used to the role of being a favorite expected to win the game. And then this is probably the only matchup all year where urban Meyer won't be totally outclassed by the other sideline. I mean, David Culley made him look like Brett b Leman week one. I don't think that's gonna happen tonight. Um, I don't know, you know, I I sort of said before the season, like I

don't believe in in gritting out the entire season. I want to I just want to survive the first five or six weeks, and then I'll start to map it out when I have better feeling on these teams and when I can sort of game theory it from there. So this might be one of the last weeks where I think, if you have one entry left, I think you do play Cincinnati because you'll never play him again, and I know it's gonna be I think the majority of people are gonna end up on Cincinnati. That's my hunch.

Not the majority, but make the highest percentage. Let's say, Um, I don't know. I think I think this is the week where you just sort of swallow hard and take you I could regret that wildly. How about you, Todd? Are you using the Bengals and survivor Here's the thing. I'm very I'm a little conflicted. Matt's making me feel better. But the Monday Night Football, you know you can do

these in game parlays. Um on Monday Night Football, when I realized very quickly that the Cowboys were gonna crush the Eagles, I took the Cowboys parlayed to the Bengals money lines um and because I just thought there's no way the Bengals are gonna lose on Thursday night, and of course the Cowboys crushed. And then I've been thinking

about this all week. Do I want to take the Bengals, which is the only time I'm probably gonna be able to take the Bengals, Or do I want to take the Bills or and now the obviously have the Bills problem with the Thanksgiving San Francisco, I mean the Christmas Thanksgiving thing, I was thinking, what about Tennessee. Now Tennessee is also one of the Christmas games, but they're at What's the game that I was just looking at it? They are at somebody tough you're talking about there at

San Francisco. No, they're at home against San Francisco and the Christmas Christmas. So the question is, would I ever would I would I have the W I risk taking Tennessee on Christmas at home against San Francisco If I wouldn't, maybe I take Tennessee at the Jets because I don't think the Jets can win. I don't know, what do you guys? I want to make this point. Remember this Tennessee game where they're hosting. The forty nine is the

Thursday before Christmas. But it's part of the window. What that's part of I thought it was only the two games on Christmas. No, there's two three game windows. The three games on Thanksgiving and then the Thursday night and two games on Christmas are the other three game window. And the window is Thanksgiving Bears, Lions, Raiders, Cowboys, Bill Saints.

That's Thanksgiving window. Then the Christmas window is San Frana, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Green Bay or Indie at Arizona, which is kind of shaping up that you want to save Arizona because Indie looks like they're so bad that maybe Arizona is the play on that Christmas. And then maybe you don't worry about not having the other four teams and maybe you do use them. So that's another like question. Maybe you take green Bay at home against the Steelers if

you're not worried about that last thing. The one million for those who care about the extra one million, you have to have both Kansas City and and uh Tampa Bay are just one of them, one of those two on the final weekning. Okay, alright, let's do best bets. That's The only thing I would caution about the Titans this week, guys, I mean, they could be without a j Brown and Julio Jones and so now you're going to be trying to get it done with Chester Rogers

and Josh Reynolds and Racy McMath and stuff. And I understand they can turn around handed off to Derrick Henry thirty times in the game, but the one thing the Jets kind of do well is defend the run. So there's just at least a little bit of caution there with Tennessee's a it's a fine point. What's your what's the favorite moment? Your favorite moment in Chester Rogers career? Todd Well, it's more I'm more of a Racy mcminimum guy. All Right, let's start with the best bets, three either

sides of totals. Matt, you're the guest. We start with you, sir. Yeah, I'm I'm pretty on board here with this Ravens team not only taking the point and a half or point I guess is down to a point at this point, but also using them in teasers this week. I mean, our last memory of them is having to kick a sixty six yard field goal to beat a team that you know, I think it's a little bit better than

people have a perception of. But the Lions, who are certainly still going to be one of the bottom six or seven teams in the NFL, if not in the bottom five. And what you do is you you really have to dig in a little bit further into all this. Todd mentioned a little bit earlier, but you had Hollywood Brown drop two touchdowns for sure, maybe a third, maybe even a third depending on people of beating the guy or not. This the perception this team would be completely

different if that would have been the case. Then the other thing, they get Brandon Williams, Justin Houston, and Justin Mta Bouquet back. All three of those guys had to miss last week because of COVID. They're off the COVID list this week as well. Two of those guys are starters. The other guy plays over the snaps for them on defense. So now you have three guys injected back into this defense. Last week was the first week Jimmy Smith came back off of BYR as well. He only played like nineteen

or twenty snaps. He's going to be a week healthier. He's going to play more snaps for this Ravens team as well. And then oh yeah, they get Rashad Bateman and Miles Boykin off of IR as well in a thin receivers in a very thin receiving corps with one guy that's your supposed number one that can't catch touchdown passes. Now you get these guys added into the mix as well. On the Broncos side, it got worse. Actually, you're already without Jerry Judy. Now you're without kJ Hamdler, Bradley Chubbs

already again missed six to eight weeks. Both of their starting guards are banged up in this scenario, areo. I think this is a really really good bounce back situation where this Ravens team would be favored in this game if it was if the game had played out a little bit differently last week that they were really hamstrung. Given the situations here, they're still fourth overall rushing defense, I mean rushing offense d v o A. In the NFL, they're going to sit there, rush per attempt there first

in the league. They're gonna run this ball, and run this ball, and run this ball. And then when you think that they lo you to sleep he'll be able to hit something through the past game as well. You can only play the opponents that are in front of you. I fully understand that all credit due to the Broncos and what they've been able to do. Teddy Bridgewater has played out of his mind. He's second adjusted completion percentage on the season. He's and and he's actually changed the

way he plays football. He's eighth and average depth of target we used to think of him is just checking down Charlie who never wanted to take any chances, and instead he's thrown four passes of twenty or moore yards down the field. Other except for two other guys, he's third in the league in twenty or more yards passes down the field. So all credit due to the Broncos and what they've been able to do, But their opponents

are oh and nine. Two of the starting quarterbacks that he's faced or rookies, and Lawrence and Wilson, who are two of the worst quarterbacks we've seen in this season so far. The other you know, it's just I think that this is a really, really good spot for this Ravens team to get right. And again I think that the wrong team is favored in this game. I'm gonna I'm gonna jump in here because on guessing lines last week.

I've said this many times before, my first reactions and guessing lines are often the best reactions that I have just me personally, and I should not I should not dissuade later in the week from that first reaction. Last week, it was Arizona. I thought it was too low against Jacksonville, despite what Todd's bullshit was earlier, that got home should

have gotten home easier. And uh, also the fact that the Chargers were six and a half point dogs against the Chiefs, that I had a lot of turnover benefit there, But that got home is an outright winner. This week for me, on guessing lines, it was Baltimore. And I'll get to the next one later, but Baltimore, even before Matt said it better than I could have been, or just that whole dissertation on it, that line seems off

to me. Baltimore should be the favorite. And I am all about the Ravens and and and I'm I've been sort of barrish about Denver the whole time anyway, And yes they have beaten who's in front of them, But that adjustment, that draft Kings made from eight and a half wins to ten and a half after they beat the Giants, a team they were supposed to beat a week one, and they adjusted it two games. It's still there now. They baked in apparently the next two weeks worth.

I think it's still an under on ten and a half, and I think that the losses start this week. Mikey, the Buffalo was the other game. You were off on the guessing lines, right, No, I thought you said you would make it fourteen. That was one. But that's not what I'm talking. It's not like I'm racing the bet. The that Chrissie said he had made it twine and a half and it it drifted a little towards Yeah, okay. I like the Cleveland Browns minus two at Minnesota. Uh Look,

Seattle was favored by two at Minnesota last week. You mean to tell me that Cleveland and Seattle or pick him on a neutral field. I don't think so. The Seattle defense is terrible. The Browns are much better. They'll be able to put pressure on Kirk Cousins. And I love the fact that this team can run the football

when they want to run the football. Baker doesn't have to be great to win games because I think between Baltimore and Cleveland, the two most dominant rushing attacks in the NFL, I thought I would have made this game three, maybe even three and a half to get it under a field goal. I think it's a bargain. That's my number one pick, all right, Cleveland Browns. I wonder if Matt has that one coming up to I happen to know what he likes during Primetime Action, Todd, what's yours?

I think you guys are I mean, I don't want to take Broncos because because of you know, how great they've looked and how bad the Ravens look last week. So I'll definitely stay away from it. I just you guys, everybody just thinks Teddy two gloves is not the ship, and he is. He is that John Fox quarterback does not make mistakes. He's a different quarterback this year. I know, I just, I just I'm I'm surprised that you guys are willing to trust Lamar Jackson on the road in

that altitude, so whatever. I mean. Yeah, and elevation, it's elevation and altitude, which is very difficult to deal with. Both of those at the same time. And uh and now, okay, look, whatever it is it is, you guys are making me more nervous about I'm not gonna take them for anyways, but it's just I think it's interesting that you're both taking read I'm taking in my first pick one of my favorite coaches in the National Football League, and that

is Brian Flores of the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, you can't hold them down. When they are getting four. They're gonna cover that spread for you somehow. I don't know how they did it, but they got us home plus four and a half or four whatever it was last week. I'm gonna take Miami Dolphins minus the what do you guys have? Minus one and a half? What had happened to depending on where you get, I'll take the one

and a half Miami minus. Well, Matt, it's two and a half at circus two and a half right here behind us. It's just as prevalent one and a half as two. Yeah, it is, And there's two and a half. Okay, Mike, type down, think, um my Miami Dolphins. And here's why. Okay, if Miami's at home and they're even teams, they should be minus three. Isn't that correct? I believe that the NFL, you get three points for the home field, Todd, I want to stop you. I want to stop you, because

it's not the case at all. There's very few teams that get the full three. Great. I agree that now they've done the studies and they've showed that the home field is not really worth the three. It's really worth point seven five or whatever the hell. The bottom line is, they're saying the Dolphins and the Colts are very similar teams here, That's what they're saying. The Colts stink, my friends, the Colts stink. Okay. The quarterback they have has no ankles,

and even if he did have both ankles, he stinks. Okay. I'm tired of this nonsense. I used to love Frank Reich. I don't like what he's doing. That was a game they should have covered easily. Thank God they didn't, because I had a Tennessee in millions. They should have covered that game easily last week. They couldn't do it. I am totally not enamored with the Indianapolis called. Now. Granted,

the Dolphins are not good on offense. Granted, I'll give you all that, but they are good on defense, and they have a very good coach, and now you're only asking him just to win the damn game. Basically, give me the freaking Dolphins. The Dolphins are better than the Colts, period. So I'm taking the Dolphins. Is my number one pick with my song, and that's that's all I'm gonna say about it. So I don't care what you guys think. Pod. You know you mentioned Gail and I are lucky that

we covered with the Cardinals. How about you with the Dolphins. I just said in my song, Mikey, in my song, I said, I don't know how we covered. We didn't deserve it at all. That was the most fortunate cover of all time. You didn't start with the ship and lucky, Mike. I'll tell you why I didn't start the show. The only per who had the Dolphins was West Reynolds, not me. How did West do but to win one and one

of the teaser We all did the same, everybody. If I was going to review West, I would say he was very fortunate with Dianny you want your Browns, and he lost the Jets. I only say the fortunate stuff when it's important Matteo number two. Sir, Yeah, I am uh. I'm with Mikey. I really like the Browns this week against the against the Vikings. I've I have this one and a half in the account. I'm fine, but the

two as well, it doesn't really matter to me. I mean, what we're getting here is a completely different animal coming in in this Browns defense than anything that Kirk Cousins has seen so far. And look, Kirk Cousins has been phenomenal. He has been way better than any version of Kirk Cousins that we've seen in the past. But you are now getting a defensive line coming in here is going to create all kinds of havoc on this guy. And this offensive line that he has in front of him

is not that good. It just hasn't been exposed yet. Well, that's what the Browns are really really good at, and that's the way they built this team is to come in and disrupt these passers and control the game on

the ground. Like Mike said, I mean, that's the one of the first things in this Brown's bet is never gonna do for you, is you're never gonna feel completely comfortable with it, because they're not that team that's gonna go out and start throwing the ball all over the yard and get up, you know, twenty seven points or something like that to where you just cruise to victory.

You're gonna have to understand when you got that Brown's ticket that you're probably gonna be sweating it until the end pretty much every single time, because that's just how this offense is built. There one of the few run first offense is still in the NFL, but they're really really good at it. They built an offensive line that makes them dominant in the run game. They are the number one run block win win rate and number one pass block win rate lead team in the NFL. They

are early down success second overall in the NFL. Right now, they are really getting it done with what they've built this team to do. And I think Kirk Cousins is going to really start to feel that pressure. And one of the things we've seen with Kirk Cousins, you give McClean pocket, he will pick you apart. He has done it so far this season. He has been phenomenal. But you put pressure in kirk Cousin's face and he starts making bad decisions. He starts throwing the ball up, he

starts getting strip sacks, and he starts throwing interceptions. And that is what's gonna happen when Miles Garrett and company come into the Dome this weekend and I short of a field goal. I think is is really really a bargain on this Browns team. I have them much much higher power rated than the Vikings in my power personal power rankings here, so I love the Browns this week. Who do you have one to three, four and five in yours in your power rankings? Man? Uh, Rams, Bucks cheeps,

and I think currently have the Browns at four. I have I have to do this for our show. Yeah, Odds on every Thursday, I have Brown's number one, Browns, Rams, Bucks, Bill's cheers. Yeah, I have the bills. Have the bills above the Browns. That's right, Browns or five? Yeah? Are Mikey number two? The Detroit Lions? Wow? That was the that was the one. I'm guessing Lines, you guys are gonna both get burned before you guys make these official picks. I'm telling you right now, Line, there's an injury we

don't know about. What are you talking about, Todd? If we cured cancer, you'd be like Oh, I wouldn't have cured that. If I were you, Oh, I would say, either you were fortunate to cure cancer. That's fortunate cancer. Sometimes you're fortunate to cure cancer. I think you know Matt mentioned earlier the lines are better than people believe they are. They really are, and they're building the teams for the draft. This is a good offensive line. This

is a good offensive line. They've moved the ball now. The only thing that stopped them in the first half in Green Bay was some mysterious holding call. They scored every time they went up. Now when the rains came, it was like, you know, Golf was the wicked wick at which of the West, and he melted a little bit. But I don't like this Bears team. I watched that whole game with Cleveland. I mean, they're criminally inept on offense, criminally enough. Maybe the problem is nagging. Maybe the problem

wasn't your bisky. Maybe the I mean so not to not to step on yours, but just to get in one of because I won't dum duplicate. Could it be? And this is part of the handicapper me as well, that Dan Campbell is the better coach here over Matt Naggie, who who won't? Do you think Anthony Lynne is a better coach? Anthony lends a better coordinator. He failed managing games because he didn't understand concept. He'd get these leads and he'd do these crazy things when he just has

to be a play caller. He's much better betting truth serum As Detroit backers, would we rather see Andy Dalton or Justin Fields? No, I would rather see Justin Fields. He's lost, He's totally lost. But why can't they get him some easy completions? He's six of twenty in a league where everybody So that's the part, right, that's the that's the Baggie part. How is it that you can just leave him back there? He gets sacked nine times and you can't They got one net passing yard one?

How can you not figure out, if you're such an offensive genius, give him something of confidence. I don't understand how he couldn't coach his way out but a bootleg to the tiet. They were doing this in preseason. They were rolling him out and all this, and he was moving the ball. I know it's preseason, but now they're just gonna let him sit there in the pocket and get crushed. Todd, Why do you think we should be worried?

I just think you should be. I mean, I agree with everything you guys are saying, and I think the Bears stink um. The thing is, the Bears did handle the Bengals at home defensively, so they didn't allow the Bengals. The way they won that game was they got a bunch of interceptions and they didn't do anything on offense. So I agree with you on that, and I just would stay away from the game, especially because the Bears got what really bad last week and the Lions had

this almost win. So everyone's gonna be like, Wow, the Lions could do it. Now you're asking him to do it on the road. I don't know. That just sounds a little scary. The Bears defense was good. I'm going with my guessing lines first instincts that those over me. Well, so I'm putting you. I'm putting you guys. You guys are both down for Lions plus two and a half. We plus three, Todd, We're gonna take three. We're not waiting no second. If you get two in Miami one

and a half, it's two and a half. What's the consensus. It is there. There are a lot of three, a lot of that's the only way you're winning this Todd skating all the lines from your favor and again the only one exactly what you're doing. Finally someone else sees this. I'm gonna give you, guys the three. Matt Brown is going to come to your rescue. That's okay, my second pick. Thank you. Okay, you guys are done at packing me and fairly um okay, I would like to take the

Panther's Cowboys game under two that he knew it. And here's the thing. I've been watching the the I don't know if you guys watched these. After I watch all the games and the boxes, you know, the eight box on Sunday, A lot of times I don't feel like I have full coverage of every game. So what I like to do is I like to watch those shortcuts on the on the direct TV where you can watch the whole game in like twenty nine minutes and just

goes play play play. It's really interesting because you get to see like certain teams, for instance, New England can't get any space at all when the wide receivers are out Pittsburgh no space at all for the wide receivers. They might complete the twenty yard pass, but it's like a miracle that they get it. And then there's the other teams like Arizona Cardinals. Guys are just wide open. I mean they just to them. There's nobody within a

mile of it. So I really like to to watch that to get a real feel for the things that I missed. And I missed the entire um, the entire Saints New Orleans game, but it did give me an insight on the Saints. The Saints aren't that good on offense, they're good on defense. But anyways, the Panthers played the Saints and played very well on defense. I think the Panthers are a defensive football team, and I think Matt Rule knows that he doesn't want Donald to do anything

too crazy. He just has to keep him game managing. He needs to run the ball. He needs to play good defense, which they've played all season long. They've played very good defense. I don't know what their d v o a is, but I'm sure it's in the top ten Carolina defensively, I think they've played very good on defense. Everyone's gonna watch the Cowboys from Monday Night and say the Cowboys are an unstoppable offense and they're gonna score

a million points. Now, granted, the Cowboys look fantastic on offense, but they're also gonna run the football a lot, and to get to fifty two in an NFL game, you need both. Somebody wants to throw the football a little bit. So I think this is gonna be a running game, a lot of ground stuff. I think rules gonna try to slow the game down, and I think that's why I want under fifty two, especially after we just saw a huge scoring game for Dallas. I think this game

is gonna slow down and I want there. It is an official podcast. Todd's a thing. Just plus Todd, you get the big advantage of Mike McCarthy doesn't like to score in the last two minutes. That's important. Can we can we talk about that for a second, because because so we're doing Matt and I are doing Primetime Action with our buddy Kelly Bidlin. We do it every night on MSG plus seven pm. Easter. Please tune in. We

have a blast. Uh. So we're not we're multitasking, We're not like completely immersed in the football game like we otherwise would be if we're just at home watching that said, um, the Mike McCarthy think was interesting because Peyton Manning was going crazy. Um our own Michael Lombardi going nuts about it. Moss okay, bingo square for Mike, there's a certain there's a certain Nuts listener who keeps tracking every time I

mentioned you on Nut the Nuts. And I had an eleven show streak of every time you reference the numbers game or Gill I do I do because I listen every morning. Use clock block this morning and proper credit. So the point of theout Mike McCarthy is when he had to ran a whole segment called no hyper Bowl grievances. Say, we're going to call it grievances. Guy never credited me, ran some credit. You don't even get me, don't even

get me started. Okay, back to Mike McCarthy. Mike McCarthy, So when he had the two timeouts left, I think you guys are right right. If he uses the first one in a minute thirty, yes he should stop the clock there. That's fine. But the whole thing about when he had one time outlet and there were fifty seconds off and everybody's killing Mike McCarthy for that. I just don't get the outrage. Let me ask you this. Don't you think that, sorry, uh, the coach for the Eagles,

he has to punt. We don't know that, we don't know. I believe that there's a much greater chance he's gonna punt with a minute left than with twenty seconds. I believe. I thought it was worse that Philly didn't run a play when it got down to thirty seconds than it was that McCarthy didn't call the time out of fifty and no one said a word about Philly not doing that.

There's no it doesn't matter. The only thing you can argue for McCarthy calling a time out is that they want to get the ball at the ten yard line with fifty seconds left and do something. I don't think they did want to do anything because he was worried. He had a nice first half going. The Eagles were not gonna go for it. They couldn't move the ball all game. They're gonna take a risk with twenty seconds to miss it. And our good friend thinks, oh, there's

not enough time. With thirteen seconds left from the fifty yard line to get a field goal. The other way they were not going for it. And by the way, Mikey agreed with us Gil on that text, but the best he could do, the best he could do was not the ten words you can see? Did you see how like Mikey he totally agrees with me and you, but he can't bring himself to be like confrontation for

the person. So he hasashalam he should say anything bad, so he like he like sugarcoats, and it's like, well, you guys are kind of right, but he's not totally wrong, Kalila that he should say something for the other tribe. Like you know, Mike he's a great guy. Around Christmas time he tells you all about truth and virtuous men and people and all those beautiful poems. But when it comes time to agree with people, no, he's not where to be found. All right, final best bet here, did Todd?

Did you want to snake? This? Because I'm the one who's had to duplicate twice? Here did you want to snake? Don't let you go first because I got because I got duplicated twice. My third one call me squares the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Uh is it six? And a half or seven, I don't even care. I'd rather have a six and that, but seven fine. UM. I just believe that this one is not what I'm going to overthink

tom Brady. Obviously, the mainstream media want to talk about the narrative of Tom Brady going back to play to play, Bill Belichick. I think that Tom Brady and Gronk will be satisfied with no less than like seventeen touchdown basses between them. I think they will name their score, and I think there is no limit to how much they want to score in this game. And there is no way you just said it about the New England receivers.

That offense cannot keep up with what Tampa Bay is about to destroy them with um and the New England will not be able to New England and have James White. They won't be able to run on this defense either. They can't do anything throwing the ball, even if Matt Brown knows exactly who to throw the ball to, the guys are not open. I don't hunder Henry for six yards is not an offense. I don't think that seven

is nearly enough. I think the narrative of this big you know, revenge game that they're trying to make it out to be is what's actually keeping this muted. I think there should be way more than that. I'm taking Tampa Bay and prove me wrong. New England's as simple as that. I agree with you, and you should take the over on two and a half touchdown passes by Tom Brady as well, because there is no way in hell they get inside the ten yard line and they

run the football this week. He is going to if he can throw five touchdowns this week, you better bet your ass he's gonna throw five touchdowns this week, so they overall half touchdowns. What do you make of the New England defense. I think the New England defense is pretty good. They might be. Yeah, I think they're pretty good. And they were Hams from They can't move the ball.

I think I can't recall a game where a team I thought was decent and I don't say Jets, I don't say Bear, but a team I thought was decent on offense could not get a yard without being covered. I kept telling me, look at this, Nothing is coming easy for New England every play and that's why it was. They had defenders draped on every receiver, no matter if what's five yards, fifteen yards, twenty five yards, It's just like the Steelers. You watch the Steelers, there's nobody running

wide open. Every every time then completes the past, there's a guy draped on the receiver. You've got to have people in the NFL. I mean, you guys watched the games. When Tampa Bay receivers go out, the guys are wide open. They're standing there by themselves to catch the boats. Like ridiculous.

It's actually Zona Cardinals guys running wide open. If I may just be serious for a second, it's it's it's actually what you're doing, Todd is actually a great exercise that everybody should do with their series about handycapping football. This is why the advent of the all twenty two footage was such a big deal when it became available to everybody, like you know, Peter King. I probably told

the story many times before. Peter King when he used to be a Giants beat reporter, used to have votes for the Hall of Fame, and now that he's a big maher national you know thing saw him at M I T and obviously being a Watchington football fan, I asked my go, you know, because I knew we voted against our monk all those years. And he's like, yeah, well, Gary Clark was the guy we were afraid of in

the eighties with the Skins and the Giants. And I said, if you had had the old if you had all the all twenty two footage, do you think you would have thought differently? Because you will see that the defense completely cares about monk, whereas Clark and Sanders get to run free. And he's like, well, you know what, actually I might have And so what you're doing is essentially that same exercise, which you know you won't get from

your your general broadcast on a daily basis. I know Matt goes back and watches games too, and you can notice these things. And that's really football, right, that's where you can tell where the advantage is. And and Todd, you just mentioned these two teams, and these are the two teams. And this isn't for every bank roll, because I understand it takes a little bit bigger of a bank roll if you want to pile against teams in game whenever they're already losing, but if you're afforded to

do so. The Patriots and the Steelers are both teams that in game I will pile against As long as they get down, I will continue to pile against them over and over and over and over again end game because they're not built to come back. These teams cannot come back from double digit deficits. It's just not gonna happen. There's no wide receivers on the Patriot side that can

get open at all. And and then you look on the Steeler side, Big Ben doesn't really want to push the ball down the field all that much anymore as it is anyway, and that team is not built to come from behind. So again it's it's not for everyone, but it is a strategy that I'm going to implore moving forward because they these teams are not coming back

from double digit deficits, just not happening. I had I had New Orleans on the end game for that exact reason, because, by the way, New Orleans didn't do anything on offense. Two of their touchdowns came one on to pick six, one on what was almost to pick six. So it's

not like New Orleans killed them on office. New Orleans won the game because they didn't make any mistakes and they let New England make the mistakes in New England couldn't move the ball ja Kobe Myers catching an eight yard outpass with a guy draped on him and then they throw it for five yards to Hunter Henry. That's not offense. You can't make an eight team play drive every time, you're gonna get stuck with field goals, which is what they always get stuck with field goals. And

by the way, Bill Belichick didn't go for it. I don't know if you guys noticed this. They were down fourteen nothing late first half and it was like fourth and one, I think, and he didn't go for it. And I think it's because he knew he couldn't nake it. But you know, I'm telling you, if you watch these games, especially go back afterwards, you can pick up, like you were saying, Gil, you can pick up lots and nuggets

of what's happening in these games. That's why I watched that Arizona game and I was shocked when it was thirteen. I mean, I was just giving you guys the business. I mean, I personally think you were somewhat fortunate to cover that game. But when Jacksonville was up thirteen ten, they literally handed it to that Robinson guy every single play and they went right down the field. For Todd, urban Meyer just discovered that he has James Robinson like for two and a half games. He was like, maybe

I should use this guy. I was like, he was a great rookie running back, and he went ahead and he drafted uh at the end on top of it, It's like he didn't even know what he had, and it's like he made a concession, like, you know, let's go with James Robinson. Oh wait, we went right down on the scored. Like I just feel like, yeah, but that was shocking to me that they could hand the

ball off up thirteen eight times in a row. I mean, when do you see that in the NFL where you could just hand off eight times in a row and get a touchdown. It doesn't happen. And they just literally we're getting six seven eight yards of play the Cowboys they get The Cowboys did it with him at Smith to start the second half of the Super Bowl against the Bills, the one they didn't like, nine straight runs. They just kept running. Stop me if you get we

gotta get Mike. You out of here. So you're number two, Pick your number three, pick my number three pick is the Green Bay Packers. For all the reasons we talked about this Steelers, how poor this offensive team is. I mean, they can't even hand the ball off to nag Hers because he's gonna be hit in the back. They gotta throw it to him nineteen times been Ben big Ben looks to me like he's now a bottom third quarterback in the NFL. He's just he can't move and like

you said, they're just jump balls. He's thrown up there to covered receivers. The Packers, I think the defense has improved since halftime of the of the Detroit Lion game. Was pretty impressed with him against San Francisco. I mean they got out todaylight there in that game and then had to come back. But uh, well, I think this game, if you can get less than a touchdown here in the six and a half, I think it's worth a play. So your play is on the Packers. The Packers Packers

minus seven. I just want to say that, well, Ben roethlis Burger, you're you're taking a shot at my hometime come And I know everybody wants to say Ben Roethlisburger is done. And granted he can't move around, he can't do a lot of stuff, no more. But he's got two problems. He's got no offensive vine. It looks like those guys aren't getting fed any big mills because they can't walk anybody. And he's got no separation in the

wide receiver. He does, but you're giving him a lot of excuses there, Uyanzer, Like he can't throw the ball downfield. That's why I'm putting in the bottom half. But I'm not putting in the bottom third. I think bottom third is kind I'm putting. I thought I thought Mike ms book, I thought he met in the bottom three because the Bose guys are way bad where the Picksburg stores. This is one of the whole fame quarterbacks in the world. Okay, whatever, he is a Hall of Famer, but it's like it's

painful to watch. Man. It's like bother time is undefeated, you know, I mean, it's just one of those things. And and Mike, it's six and a half. Don't let him get Don't let you've been cheating us for years. Paul takes six and a half the lines right here, I got all sevens all the way across the board right here. You're telling me it's six and a half them on now six and a half. Where are those every legal book within a hundred miles of Green Bay?

I mean, where are you getting those lines? Todd? You really have Like if we if we go do an autopsy of past years, you will have been Gilly. First of all, every single week I always said I was just the worker. You were the supervisor, and we would always say to you, Gilly, is this fair? And you would always give your fair share? That's true. But I've ceded that to you this year, and it's a little

bit of shenanigans. I don't think there's anyanigans. I have minus seven plus one oh five grant you that you want to give Mikey minus six and a half for all the times he tried to steal half a point years past. Fine, well, if how about this, then there won't be there because there's there's no there's no juice difference at south point. It's six and a half at south point. So Michael take the six pence in the

south point. Excellent point, man, excellent, there we go. All right, He'll take the We're gonna have seduca it's seduc a week here at the ballpark. Mikey gets six and a half Charity Sacaca, Neil Sedacca, Neil Sedaka. How come your Hebrew sucks so bad? Why do you do that ultra religious, horrible Hebrew? Because I was raised in a cult called ultra Orthodox Judaism, and this is how we talk. We have our own thing. We're not part of your whole

secular June nonsense. For miss Okay, I here's what I do. I either do the full or ultra orthodox could or I renounced Judaism entirely one or the other. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I asked. You're in final pick, Matt. Yeah, So the two that I really really like, I'll say for the teaser here, because the numbers gone, I have a bet on the Chiefs. I have a bet on the Bucks as well, but I got those at five and a half, and so I'll make that the teaser leg whenever we can come back around. So for this,

for this exercise here, I'll take the Cowboys against the Panthers. Um, this is a this is a team that we knew was going to have a fantastic offense coming in. But we thought, okay, fantastic offense is gonna get you. So far, if you can't stop the other team from scoring, it doesn't really matter. Well, what we've gotten out of this defense so far, and all credit to Dan Quinn is he has stepped in and he's given multiple different looks.

He is out there confusing people, giving uh really making these quarterbacks question whether they're making the right decisions or not. He took the bold stance of taking your number one pick that's a middle linebacker and sticking him at defensive end and saying, oh, by the way, you're too good and we have a weakness over here. You need to go and play defensive end. And he's done that very well as well. In No Carolina and Todd you said

this earlier. You don't You didn't know what they're what their rankings were d B o A and all the stuff like that. It's one there, the number one rated defense d B o A in the NFL. That the number one, number one against the past number one against. The rush for Football Focus has them ranked number one as well, and all of this has to do with Look, you can only play the teams that are in front of you said this a couple of different times so far. But that being said, they've gotten the Jets in a

rookie quarterback making his first start in the NFL. They got the Saints Jamis Winston. The jury is still out on whether he this guy is any good or not. Like there, we we have no idea he had in the game that yeah, and and and they do, they do for sure, but whether he's good or not, I still can't. I still can't get there just yet. And then they got the Texans with Davis Mills making his

first start in the NFL as well. Now you get one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league coming, you're going to his place in in there in us and J. C. Horne going down at corner was a very big thing for this team. He was playing very, very well as a rookie. Yes, they went out and traded for C. J. Henderson, But I don't know how well he's gonna be able to just step in on three days of practice, being in there, not knowing any of the defensive schemes, not knowing how they run that defense.

He'll be good for them in a couple of weeks. I don't know how good he's gonna be for them this week. The other thing that I like about this Dallas team is on the offensive side of the ball. They started to understand that they don't have to run everything through Ezekiel Elliott. This was probably from the top down where Jerry Jones was putting the mandate in, say

you have to run Zeke twenty times a game. Well, Tony Pollard is every bit is good and arguably better than Ezekiel Elliott is right now, and he's about getting fifty fifty all these touches in the times where it actually matters in the game. And I really like that they've gotten away from what they used to do and they've gotten into a spot where we're gonna do what's

optimal for this team to win games. And Dak plus a Maria Cooper Ceedee Lamb plus Zekiel Elliott plus Tony Pollard there it's just a completely different animal from anything that the Panthers have seen so far. I'll take the I'll lay the four and a half with them at home against this Panthers team. I think this is when

they start to come back down to earth. Man, do you draw a line somewhat through that Saints performance in Week two with all the COVID issues and the coaching and that week where they really didn't get the practice and they just were terrible. They only had six first downs, Carolina scored on the opening drive and totally dominated and then they came back and played so well against New England, at least defensively. I kind of draw a line through

that Week two on the Saints. I've seen nothing offensively from them really all season, is the only thing for me, Mike. I mean, that was a horrible spot, Like that was a terrible spot, but they haven't done anything in any of the games. And and you know, you look at that Week one where it's like, yeah, James through for five touchdowns, but I mean that was a bunch of short field situations. That was a budget that it was the deeper. This defense is awesome. The SSE defense is awesome.

They have certainly put this offense in the best possible position, and they've run the ball fairly well. But again, I don't I don't think that this offense is going to be able to get by with Jamis Winston at quarterback, playing the way that he's playing and having no receivers. Don't get me wrong, they have no they have no receivers either on the team, so I don't know. I think this Cowboys team is for real. I put in a super Bowl future on them yesterday. I UM, I

feel pretty good about about this team. I think they have a decent chance at getting the number one overall seat in the nfceat I hope people realize that we're listening to the show because the Megapod audience is often different from the Visa audience. Um and by the way, the first two shows of the year or the megapot are top five all timers at Visa in the podcast thing.

But I hope folks who are unfamiliar with Matt realizing just from this show, you can tell Matt dives into football, dives into golf too, by the way, as deep or if not deeper than anybody I know, and is as sharp on both sports as anybody I know. And those are just two sports that I'm aware of. He probably probably has more, but I hope people realize that. And he's on Promptime Action everything all night. That's my plug for Primetime Action. You were too You're You're you're too

kind it is. How do you feel about Matt? How do you feel about braun Be scoring in the last fifty minutes against leone in the europe I can tell you. I can tell you this. I have a new year's resolution, and my new year's resolution is to not bet one single time on soccer in the In all one I have made zero soccer bets. And so I've only got a couple of months to go. I might as well see this thing that was legit his new year's resolution. By the way, by the way, what are the odds

on whether you will? Is it minus nine fifty? You're not going to? Oh yeah, at this point I've gotten this far. I'm I'm I've got NFL to keep me occupied. Todd Todd third and final best bet. And by the way, I hate to tell you, Danielle Collins straight set winner, my apologies, and what was the final straight set? Wanted l five and a half? Oh she would six to six four? So you would have done you did it? You bet it? Yes? Nice? Yes? Well play this five

and a half pinus? Okay, uh my last pick, I am going to go with the I mean, I hate this board, as I always every week. I hate under forty five in the Broncos game. You know what, it's a Broncos game. They go under every week? Why do they go under every week? Because Petty two Gloves is gonna throw a little short passes. They're gonna run the ball, and they have a strong defense. I know the chub guys out, but I still think their defense is very good. Um,

I think the Ravens. I think the Ravens. Matt talked about how the Ravens are getting a whole bunch of guys back on defense. That has to help defensively. I don't see Denver scoring a ton of points, maybe twenty. This game feels like twenty. A lot of field goals in this game. To me, I think both teams are gonna play well defensively. Both teams are gonna try to run the ball, which is always for the under. We love under running the football. And uh, you know, if

you beat me, you beat me. But forty five it seems like a lot of points in the Denver Broncos game. So give me under forty five. And the Broncos against the Ravens, you think they're gonna score forty three, So you're going under forty five. That doesn't give you a lot of margin of air. Todd, Well, how many points do you think these games are off by Mike Well,

I don't know. I usually like to have three and a half to four points off of a total before I make a total bet of what I think is Okay, Well, I I was just giving an example of what you know could still happen. Twenty twenty was a lot of field goals. You know. That's three field goals for one team to field goals for another. I was trying to give an example of a lot of field goal getting Okay, maybe I think it's gonna be seventeen. Now you happy? Wow,

that's better. That's better. I like your pick better. Okay, thank you? All right, Um, I don't know if you know this odds on happens at the top of the air. So we've got a roll here teaser leg two teams six point teaser legs of the week, Matt Chiefs of Bucks Is. Both of those teams are going to roll.

Look this Chiefs team is is still at the very top of the NFL and E P A P play on the offensive side of the ball on early down success right or on the offensive side of the all the problem is is they just have had some really, really really bad turnovers and that's just not going to continue, and it's certainly not going to continue this week against this Philadelphia Eagles defense, who, by the way, we thought was going to be a strong suit for this team.

It has not been so far this year. I do understand whatever you look at it, you say, but the Chiefs defense has been so bad. But Chiefs even look who the Chiefs have played. I mean, like, the Chiefs have played a very tough schedule. Gil, you and I talked about this on the program before the NFL season started, where we said, hey, look, the Chiefs are still gonna be good, but this is not a cake walk to start this season. It is a like Brown's Ravens Chargers.

It's not an easy way to start the season. And so yes, it has been a bad defense against really really good teams. Like all three of those teams are good playoff caliber teams. Now you get the Eagles, who are not bottom beaters. I've only got to get a one point win out of the Chiefs here, give me that. And for everything you mentioned earlier about the Bucks, like, I think this could be an absolute route in this thing. Not only that, get Antonio Brown back this week as well.

So that's just one more weapon that Tom Brady has to attack because he's off of the COVID list as of today. So it's just a bad, bad, bad match up here. And typically the way that this Patriots team beats teams that are way better than them is Belichick out thinks the quarterback and he he knows a way to to really slow down. That's not happening with Tom Brady here. That's there. There's no chance that that's happening here. He is gonna feel zero pressure whatsoever. They're gonna roll

as well. Give me one point wins with the Chiefs and the Bucks this week. I absolutely love it. I cannot argue with it. I'm just I could do it too. But I'm gonna go Bucks. I don't see how you can't have the Bucks. Bucks and Bengals. I'm gonna do it tonight, Bucks and Bengals. If the Bengals go down, I'm going down hard. Every which way. Survivor teaser, every which way. So you're taking the Bengals in Survivor, I think I am. I think I yeah, you have one

one left, You're gonna put it all in. I think so. I'm good luck to you, thank you. I think you have to I think that's the play rights. I'm not going to use the Bucks in the teaser. I'm gonna go Chiefs type this poor Jets, This Sag Wilson. This kid just has nothing. I mean, he's got nothing to work with. Um. I'm impressed by the fact that the Titans we're able to bounce back from a poor performance against Arizona and rally on the road in Seattle. Slow

down Russell Wilson in the second half. I just can't see this Jets team mustrain much. I mean, this is a team that's gonna what are they gonna score in again thirteen? I mean, they're just they're terrible. They can't move the ball. He's got he's got no time, he's got no receivers to throw too. And and Matt talked about the Chiefs, Todd, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take

the Chiefs too. I also like the fact that the Chiefs lost last week, which means and the week before, which means they've got to you know, they've got to like start concentrating. I mean, clearly the Chiefs could easily be three and oh they were up thirty five twenty four and and um, Homes says that interception. They should have won that game, and they could easily one on Sunday as well, so we we all know about the Chiefs.

I mean, come on, the Eagles. I usually don't like going against the team that's been blown out the week before, but you're only asking the Chiefs to win the game. So I'll take the Chiefs minus the one. And uh, I mean, I like all the legs that you guys were talking about. I'm gonna go with the Bengals one too, because I just think the Bengals are a much better football team than um Jacksonville. I think going into Pittsburgh,

NOLBE at Pittsburgh is not good anymore. But still going on the road at Pittsburgh, and you know, they really just they handled the Steelers. It wasn't even like a close game. They handled the Steelers with no problem whatsoever. Now you're asking him to handle a Jacksonville team that's going on the road that doesn't seem to be that hard. So I'm gonna take Bengals in Chiefs urban Meyer if urban Meyer and the Jaguars can beat you, Tip of

the cap, Tip of the cap. Alright, uh? Final two questions We always end the show with this sort of like an inside the actor studio kind of thing. Big favorite most likely to lose out right, Bengals, here are your candidates. Bengal seven and a half point favorites at home tonight against the Jaguars. Uh, Bills, Uh sixteen and a half or seventeen point favorites at home against the Texans, The Saints seven and a half point home favorites against

the Giants, Titans. I'm a little scared about your Titans one, by the way, Yeah, that'll be your answer. That seven point favorites on the road against the Jets, Chiefs seven point favorites on the road against the Eagles. And finally, of course, oh no, a couple Packers six and a half point favorites at home against the Steelers, and the Buccaneers seven point favorites on the road against the Patriots, which Matt is the one most likely to lose out right.

I guess I'll go with the Saints. Uh. The Giants have not been in on offense, and Daniel Jones has actually been pretty good so far this year, and the defense is really the thing that's been letting this Giant's team down. If they can step up even just a little bit, because again, the Saints offense, I just don't believe in it. So if I had to pick one, I'd take that. But honestly, uh, these are pretty good matchups for all these teams. Um, I'm gonna step in.

I act really agree with you. I actually I'm gonna say the Saints. The difference is because we talked about this a little last night. Matter. You brought this up, Derrick Henry sort of a get out of jail free card that even if everything else is going wrong for you, you just give him the ball and milk it to the end and just get out of Dodge with a win. I don't think the Saints have that kind of thing. And if Jamis has bad Jamie's day, that would be

the team that would lose. I think that's probably the best bed. I agree. I say Saints because I think the Giants are the best of the teams that are playing against these that are getting a touchdown? Right. I think, did you say Steelers, Green Bay? Nobody said Steeler screen What do you mean we all said the Saints. No? No, I'm saying, did you pick is that one of the choices? Yes? Yes, six and a half. Yeah, yeah, okay, it's on youtuh. I mean, I kind of agree with you, guys, because

I think the Saints. The Saints offense is really not that good, but the Saints defense is great. I think the Saints will win the game, but it wouldn't shock the world if the Giants, you know, pulled one out of their tons. Jiddish question. You're betting every year? You live in a bizarro world. You have to bet a side on all sixteen of these games, except for one. One game you get a free pass on. You want no part of it whatsoever. That game, Matt, would be

Washington football team in the Atlanta Falcons. Who the hell are either one of these teams. I have no idea that that that easily for me. I don't I don't know. I can't tell heads or tails either one of these teams right now. Two weeks ago, I said Giants Washington. Last week I said Atlanta and the Giants. So I think I'm gonna actually obligated to Atlanta Washington this week. And those two games, by the way, I think it was sort of validated. They were impossible to figure out.

In the end, I had to remind myself at Lanta even won that game last week in the week before, we remember they were Washington one on that Dexter Lawrence jumping off sides in a second Dustin Hopkins kick. So I think it's Atlanta Washington, even though I would really like to think that Chase Young and that defensive line are gonna be in the backfield all day long and they're gonna kill Maddie Ice. Washington better win because if they're one in three, they're gonna be one in seven

or one in eight. Yours part of the Colts and Dolphins. No part of the Colts and Dolphins. I'm not sure. Really this bad, Yes, yes, they're bad. They're bad. They're really that bad. Parson Wentz Carson Wentz to retire embarrassment. The problem with Parson went He had that great season where he was so amazing. He's so amazing, Carson Wentz, He's amazing, He's amazing, he's amazing. Then he got injured

and ever since he has not been amazing anymore. So I think he's still he still gets that credit from being that great quarterback that one season. They're they're no good. The Colts are just not good. I mean I don't know. You gotta watch the games. They're they're terrible. But okay, anyways, game that I don't want any part of is the Greats against that Charger because who knows what the hell is going to happen in this game. I know it's gonna come down to the end. There's gonna be some

crazy ask fourth down that Gruden might go for. He doesn't go for the other team decide. The Chargers decided to go forward on fourth and nine. By the way, can we give them balls credit for going forward on fourth and nine? Well, at the end of I mean, let's be honest, what the hell were they doing? What the hell were they doing? That was a little that's

a little while. I mean, especially they get so then they get the p I they converted, and they're like, okay that they're just gonna milk it down and kick the chip shop. Now, man, the idiot runs at the end zone. Well no, then they threw tore it into the end twice and there was a sixteen yard or Williams and Dave has to end with the thirty yard field goal, I mean twenty yard field I mean, what are you doing there? Why would you give it back to Momes and if he hits to hell, Mary, you

lose because you brought the extra point. I mean, it works, sell. I was telling Gil about this. There was a game, some college game I was watching. I can't remember who it was, and I needed no more scores and for and it was one team was winning by one point. It was an Appalachian State game. They were winning by one and they had the ball and the other team there was a time out with from the twenty yard line.

The other team told their players, don't tackle the guy because then we'll we'll be down eight and we'll at least get the ball back, right, So he was smart. Now the Appalachian State coach told his guys, if you get the first down, fall down. So this was the most ridiculous funny playing football. They handed off. They didn't even make it look like they were going to tackle them. They like parted the red seat for this guy that just run and he runs to like the six yard

line and falls down. And that was the game. So they're starting to get smarter and smarter with these coaches. But I guess they weren't smart in the in the in the Chargers game, But that was really a funny game where the coaches are starting to realize, hey, I'm down one. I can't win unless I let them score. Both of the coaches were right, but then the app state bedders who were like, we're laying seven and a half and only one by one were like screaming, oh

bad beat. They were never covering the whole game. So it was the right no, but it was the right play. It was the right football player. Get the first down, fall down, the game is over. Betters are funny, funny people. All right, everybody, thank you for listening to appreciate it. For Matt Brown from Primetime, Action, odd Wish from Action and just being a general, you know, man about town, Mikey Palm from The d and of course Circus Sports

the vice president of operations. And I should mention also the hosts of odds on on Visa with a mall shot. I'm old school. I called that show the nuts. It used to be called the Nuts. This other friend of ours refuses to call it odds on as well. Yeah, you don't like odds on so much? Well, how about the website odds on Lombardi? Have you got your subscription yet? Know? So, what's the odds on Lombardi thing. It's his website where

he'll be putting his picks out every week. So that's called odds on Lombardi and your shows called odds on. There could be we might be having the name. I'm thinking we rename odds On the Maal Shaw Experience. Why don't you redee one guy, one guy who eats healthy and one guy who doesn't. That would be a good extremely healthy. He eats nothing, no desserts, no meat, no fish. Oh, he's unbelievable. Never had alcohol in his life, no meats. What does he eat? He eats, you know, salads and

stuff like this. He's also a deceptively tall at him all show. He's very tall. He's also a thin. He's also very very Whatever his real name is, that's got to be a sever name, right, whatever his real name, whatever your real name is, All right, guys, appreciate it, Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets. A Week four in the National Football League from the makeupod Yeah,