Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 2 Preview

P A. Are you knowing, Toddy? You good? I'm good? He's watching soccer, he's betting soccer or something. Looks looking to the side. Does and our and our guests of the day kind enough to come back on the show. Always a rotating guest on the megapod. Uh and he has become one of the staples. We love having him. Uh. Drew Dinsick Ladies and gentlemen from both NBC Sports at the Edge podcast and Dinsi clas Sick what he does with his buddy Andy Molitor The Deep Dive podcast available

We're All Podcasts and distributed at Whale Underscore. Capper was Hadden and Drew honor the privilege to be back with you, guys. Can't wait for this megapod. Love having you. For those who were seeing the visuals, Drew actually was here last week. We had dinner Withdrew. We had a great time at car Bone, but he was at Circus Stadium Swim. Took a picture now it's his background, actual picture. He was here.

Didn't tell me, Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. With all the contests going on, in the sign ups going on, I didn't want to put more on your plate. But I got to meet a lot of your team at Circa bet. Jeff Benson and company took great, great, great care of us on Sunday and in general I'm not easily impressed. Um, but what they have going on right now, Circus Book, Circus Sports, between the book and Stadium Swim, I mean they absolutely knocked it out of the park.

That was such a joy to be there as a as a sports fan in it as a better uh and I cannot wait to go back. What a great commercial. First we should wreck that wreck that what Rome needs to say. Racket. By the way, how nice is Jeff Benson Drew? He was unbelievably nice and and and really though the Risk team. We had drinks with them on Thursday after the Bucks game. Um and those guys were all great. Got to meet Glenn and uh and Dylan and there were a couple of guys there as well,

all just the absolutely solid crew. I I gotta tell you about Jeff Benson. You know this Saturday that before the NFL starts Week one, it's got to be one of the worst days for him of the year because of how he gets abused by all the people one that missed getting into the contest or two miss getting their picks in a Week one. He does get abused. He was absolutely got abused by people that we had to actually throw out of the casino because of what I mean. They call him everything but a white man.

It's absolutely ridiculous. People came at to thirty to get in the contest. He came at to thirty to get in the contest. He said, you had to get in by two. Why you don't have to get the picks into three. They called the Gaming Commission on us because they said, if you can have to get the picks into three, you can get into the contest. Till three he had, he got interviewed by the Gaming Board at eight o'clock at night Saturdayay night because of this complaint.

I mean, it's and it's so clearly, and we only talked about it for months and months. It's everywhere. It's course, oh man, people, right, Todd people, they're the worst. They're the worst, worst invention ever, worst invention ever. At this time, at this time, I would, I would, I would ask Drew what those Circle folks said about my particular case. But I don't want to have Drew talk out of turn. But let's just say they're in agreement with me in

my little case. Um, would that be a fair characterization? Yes? No, yes, yeah, I mean that was again I'm a biased audience, so maybe they were just telling me what I wanted to hear. But we were install agreement across everyone. I talked to the industry that that Jeff Benson thing. Though, it's like it's clearly their fault for not putting them in. But it's amazing human beings transferring their their anger, you know, irrationally to the poor kid. And he's such a nice guy,

such a nice guy. All right, let's start this. Are you eating? Are you eating today, I fastening. It is the day of Atonement. Really so religious. I'm religious. I'm the least religious person ever. This is a tribute to my father, right, This is tribute to my father. This is what he did every year, and I want as my own little way of attributing my father, this is

what I do. So please, well keep your thoughts. I mean, look, I'm not gonna say you don't need to skip a couple of meals, so you know it's not the end of the I've always heard. I've always heard fasting brings on a little clairvoyance. So I can't wait to hear what your takes. Oh, thank you. I didn't know that was a side uh side effective fasting. I hope some clairvoyance will come. Uh that said, I wasn't very clairvoyant last week. Todd the records from last week as the

as the podcast stenographer. Yes, as the podcast stenographer. Me and Mikey got robbed of going three and oh we both went two and one and we had over fifty two in that Arizona and they had fifty one at the end of three quarters and we were robbed. We should have had a three note. But me and Mikey both went two and one. Gilly the iceman went one and two. But all three of us hit the teasers. I didn't get robbed on the Damien Harris fumble. That

wasn't robbery. You just want to robbery. One second, we can discuss robberies properly. Very easily. New England could have kicked the field goal at the end and you would have won by two very easily. You could have not very easily. You could have not scored fifty one and a half points, which is what happened. You're saying, So you're saying that has the same chances. There's no one scoring anything in the whole fourth quarter of a game.

They already had fifty one, and you're actually, I am, actually, I am. I had first and ten at the eleven. You want to run the win probabilities on those, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you. I'm gonna call Michael Lombardi and we're gonna get the actual percentage problem. All right, Well, how did Brady do? Brady was wanted to Also, you

don't realistic yet, Yeah, Brady was one day. You don't realistically think that New England covering they're needing a touchdown and to stop the Dolphins the other way is the same as having fifty one after three quarters. Do you really uh yeah, I'd have to see the play by play on your quarter. I don't know, I don't know. I don't know what the answer is. I was first intended the eleven. All I needed was one game in, one stop up. That's what is the percentage of getting

it in on first Todd run? The numbers get I don't have a number for you, but I don't think it's as the numbers were much closer. No, it's not as cut and dry as you think it is. By the way, it's one point. Yeah, the live the live line was outside of three for me. Yeah, exactly. No. No, And like I'm like, like the live number on the board was was outside of three. Correct. So you're saying, that's what you're saying. You're saying the bet the in game betting market was on my side of things. Yeah,

that's what I'm saying for you to Todd. But that's what I'm saying. It's like neither one of us was an underdog. You're acting like I was so much more of a dog than you. You're in about No. I would put you in about a fifty fifty there and I would put us in about like an eight twenty. Either way, they didn't work out. I ended up one and two and you ended up to and one. Bottom line is me and Mike you're two and one, you're one and two. Just let's move on. I don't you

think I just said that? Uh? And everybody hit their teasers, right, everybody hit their teeth as I mentioned, were all one to know on the teasers. Okay, all right, it's no doubt even mikey. Uh. This is the time of year where we always talk about who didn't get their entries in and both millions in circus even before week one we had this happen. Yeah. I set the number for Survivor at twelve and a half and I was I

was high. And I'm surprised because we had three times as many entries as last year, and I think we had eleven the first week. Didn't put him in. What was the total number of entries? Okay. What's what's unbelievable is how close to two contests were circu Mallions got four thousand eighty seven. Survivor got four thousand eighty. Wow,

the difference from seven that is oncanny, right. I keep reminding Derek gently that in this meeting where we decided the rules and the guarantee, I had him convinced to do four million, four million and do eight million, and then he said, oh no, he just I changed my mind. Eight millions not sexy enough. Let's do ten million. Do you ever have a hie? But what was sexy about one point five million two years ago? That's not sexy? Do you agree with anything? Ten million versus eight million sexier?

And was going to win in the fourth quarter and bo So we had eight people out of the four thousand eighty didn't get their survivor pick. Yet twenty one out of the four thousand eighties seven didn't submit picks in the circummedians, which they're disqualified from the year long Booby Prize because you have to put every pick and to win the Booby Prize. Yeah, they could win a quarterly movie prize later, but they can't win the year long. I went two in three and millions. The falcons like

like in on the Megapod got me. That was a terrible pick. In New England got me with the fumble. Was it a terrible pick or did they just played terrible? I agreed with Brady I in Live life. I bet the falcons as well. Yeah, I mean they have got me too, and it is a terrible pick. How many times did I say Matt Ryan sucks and we should stop with this Matt Ryan nonsense. I'm tired of this guy. I'm tired. There's the first scream on the show. Yeah.

There was a hundred and ninety six people that went or entries that went five and oh in week one and my partner am All Shaw, whose motto is I'd rather be piste off than piste on, is one of them went five? Yeah? Alright, Animal Show? Uh and then uh survivor how many people got eliminated out of the four thousand and eight it was seventeen percent, sixteen point seven percent. The fifth most popular through ninth most popular picks all got eliminated, but not one to three or four. No,

one to three or four survive, but fifth. Which was shocked to me when I looked at it, was that the Jacksonville Jaguars were the fifth most popular pick and it wasn't that double option. Derek's talking about taking book because only fifteen people took the text, but a hundred sixty seven people, and then the Vikings Atlanta, the Patriots down the list of the next time was I was more surprised that the number one most popular picking circum

millions was the was the Washington football team. I didn't understand that. I didn't understand it either. They bet them like that they had they and the game wasn't even that close. I mean, it's very weird the Chargers. The Chargers went two for but the Charges went two for six in the red zone. Todd on third down, I mean that that's fair. That's fair saying that when they were up sixty, had the ball, the Redskins would have won the game. They could have who could have won

the game? Football team, whatever the game is. Sorry, Todd, I think you need to reevaluate your red zone analysis, both in the Washington game, in the Miami game, what was the red zone? And now in that one. I just said they abled to consider it for the Chargers Washington game. When you said, oh, Washington should have won, no, I said, they had the ball up sixteen thirteen, and they fumbled the ball away inside their own tent and gave him the game. Now, obviously the Chargers could have

won the game. I'm just saying, and maybe should have won the game. The point is at sixteen thirteen, at that point, they had all the momentum and the football and they're at home, and Heineke is better than uh Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point, I guess. And wow, all I'm saying is looked all right. I was surprised. I have no problem with Heineke. Let's start with a Thursday

night game. Since we segue to that, Drew will start with you Thursday night football, a barn burner between washing and in the Giants Washington three and a half point favorites, the total down to forty and a half. I um, I guess this morning there'll be less than five totals, fewer than five totals less than that the rest of the year, but we'll see. Uh do you have a play on this game? Uh? Yeah, I played into the opener on the total under forty two and a half.

Most of my thought process was pretty straightforward here. Um, you have Taylor Heineke on a short week. What does that mean? Well, Uh, typically when you have a compressed schedule for preparing your offensive game plan. Uh, it is imperative that you use the prior week to get as much you know, get as much into the you know, as made wrinkles as possible in before you get to

that Thursday night football game. And the fact that you have now a replacement level quarterback means anything that Washington prepared for in the preseason goes out the window and they have to on the fly come up with a game plan to attack what does I think at least a more stout defense with the Giants than what we

saw against the Denver Broncos. So ultimately, I don't know how Washington goes score for score if the Giants even have anywhere close to uh life, you know, and in their offensive look um, and you get to basically taking the under. You get to fade the rookie quarterback on the short week as well as Jason Garrett on a short week, So it both both worked for me. Washington last week gave up a fifteen play drive with the Chargers that ran out the last six forty three of

the game, couldn't get them off the field. Chargers were fourteen of nineteen on on third downs. Daniel Jones fumbled inside the red zone with the Giants driving late in the third quarter down seventeen to seven, when the game was still in the balance against Denver for Daniel Jones his NFL worst eighteen fumbles loss since entering the NFL

in twenty nineteen. Matt Brown, my co host on Primetime Action on MSG plus, said he heard in great moments, in horrible use of trends history, he heard somebody throwing out the stat He goes, uh, Daniel Jones. He gave all the Janiel Daniel Jones fumbles, lost that and the other. But he's never fumbled against Washington. And you know there's some people who are gonna hear that and be like, oh wait a minute, he holds the ball tighter against Washington.

Apparently some of these trend things are ludicrous. They're ludicrous. You know. We had some people like I like Greg mcelroyal lot as an analyst right as he knows his betting. He knows betting, and I think he's good on the games. But we had him on and he he wants He said Clemson was to play against Georgia, and his chief reason was in matchup of top five teams all time, Clemson is six and one in Georgia's three and ten, I said, what is what? What is what Mark Rick

did with forty different kids ten years ago? Or have anything to do with this group of people That can't be that, that can't be relevant to this game. College has become Mike, Mike or Todd anything about this game tonight? I am staying clear. I'd like to make a comment from a survivor perspective. Yes, you think Washington's a pick tonight, I think you have to think about using it because

of this damn Christmas rule. Right, You would think Cleveland and green Bay would be Survivor picks, but don't you have to save them to see what happens that Chris here? Is that too far away? Here's the thing about the green Bay part of that. Green Bay has a really tough game on Christmas, right, Like, you wouldn't pick them anyway. So the notion that you should be saving green Bay unless you can foresee an injury, right is kind of ludicrous to me. But to your point, these two segments

of three games, Thanksgiving and Christmas, they're all up. The biggest number is Dallison and Oakland on Thanksgiving, which is not that clear of a game either, but right, so, I mean they're tough games. I got into I got into it with the yesterday shock. I can't believe that. We were talking about the notion of multiple entries and survivor and multiple entries, and then I said to him, I go, multiple entries my position. You can agree or disagree.

I go, yes, your your probability of winning gets incrementally. He couldn't figure. He doesn't matter how many time to said, until he goes, well, he keeps coming back to you think it's the same amount of you have six entries one and I go, it's not what I said. I'll say it for a fifth time. Uh, it's incrementally better. But what I what I The point I was trying to make is the notion of having extra entries and survivor is actually less of a thing than people make

it out to be. Because ultimately saying it's not six times more correct correct because well, he didn't get that point, so he What I'm saying is people end up playing those extra entries differently inevitably than they would their final one.

And so in practice, while it sounds like a good thing, I hated myself immediately when about five entries because I know that eventually those four, in addition to the one that makes it the furthest, they're going to slough off because I'm not gonna play all five the same one, because that's the other way to say, are you playing all five the same way? If the answer is no, then my point is made. Then you're playing it differently

than you would have optimally. That's all. But you think Washington doesn't play that, I think you have to consider them. I think the Giants are that bad. I was. I was thoroughly disgusted with the giants performance. I like Denver all week. I bet them when they were one and a half about a month ago because I and whine, I don't want to lay a field goal on the road. I played the game under I didn't think the Giant it's like the Giants. They got a touchdown on the

last play of the game. I mean that the game was out of reach. I didn't feel that there was any point in that game where Denver wasn't in control of it with the quarterback when it was seventeen seven and the Giants were inside. But they still want no, No, Mike, you weren't gonna win the game. I agree with you. The Giants were not going to win the game. Denver was gonna win the game. And by the way, Teddy two gloves is a great game manager. Don't blow the

game well, he is fantastic. He fits the teams the team, he fits his head coaches, hippocratic view of the quarterback position. First, do no harm and I will not speak up my uh. And by the way, people people joke about, they don't understand in the NFL it's more important not to lose the game than to win the games. Such a good point. But let me just say this, and we gotta get to our best best because Mike, he's on a schedule here,

but we because you gotta do the nuts. By the way, the name it is official now, Odds who came up with that name? That was my first choice, odds On back in December when we were talking about this show, and Bill ad marketing guru said, oh, we we can't protect it, Odds Shark will sue us this and that. So then when they decided they wanted to go away from the Nuts, they had all these choices and I'm all sent in choices and I said, I still like my original odds on Bill Goes. That's a great name.

That's what we're gonna call it. I said, Bill, you said, no, that it's on he Goes. No, I never heard of that name, I said, I have the emails. Surprise you guys didn't come up with a numbers game with the Z instead of an s now that would That would have been the move. Last thing before we get the best bets about the Broncos. Back to the Broncos for

second draft kings. So good on draft kings. They do adjusted season win totals after every week, and they did it after week one and every so I've been on these off the grid stock market like you know, very illegal uh things for years and years and years where I bet season win totals in football when they weren't around and realized jurisdictions, uh, and they were just there was a buy price in a cell price. It actually started at Lehman Brothers. It was the biggest thing in

the world. I don't play it anymore. And now in legalized jurisdictions, although we don't have buy and sell prices, we have these adjusted so good on them for that. And usually what happens is if you win a game

you're not supposed to write. If you win a game as a dog, or if you lose the game as a favorite, your number gets adjusted more than otherwise makes sense intuitively, the Broncos at Draft Kings their season win total after beating the Giants, a game they were favorite, in a game they were supposed to win, got adjusted all the way to ten and a half. Yes, So I talked about it last night on Prime Time from eight and a half. It was seven and a half in the middle of the summer, eight and a half

before the season. So I talked about on Prime Time last night. I talked about on a numbers game this morning that to me right now is the best bet on the board minus one ten under ten and a half on the Broncs that much in the other three teams in their Division one. It's not like anything was exposed that their divisions. They're still playing the Chiefs twice. If they won a game they were supposed to win.

It made no sense intuitively. Don't know if you saw that, true, I I didn't, But that's absolutely But I mean, and that's that's in keeping with the overreaction in the Week two line. This look ahead was Denver minus one and a half and now it's six. And oh, by the way, like, um all, I bet five sides this week. I got market agreement on four. Uh. The Jacksonville plus six got thrown back in my face. So somebody out there was

like ready to play six with then. So you make a great point, because let's keep in mind Draft Kings. Besides New Jersey, what's their biggest jurisdiction, Colorado? So we we we hypothesize that there's so much overreaction to the Broncos in that state that it is artificially moving their lines in a way that makes no sense whatsoever in the general market. Let's do best bets drew first, one side or total Week two of the NFL. Let's go side.

Uh my favorite look currently on the board. I'm taking on your Las Vegas Raiders by backing the Pittsburgh Steelers price available right now five five and a half? Is that is that fair? Todd? We we usually go by the consensus, which is six. Right now, it's up to six. That happened this morning. Huh, all right, I'll lay the six. I don't mind dum. Obviously you want the best of

the number. Uh, this was one where I hit I hit it four and a half and the market instantly was hot, so I knew I feel good about this one. In general, there's a number of angles that I think in this matchup, angles that support the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, we'll start with the defensive side. The Pittsburgh Steelers proved against the Buffalo Bills that they are still one of the top, if not the best defense in the NFL. UM And you know when when you match up against

the Raiders, the Raiders offense goes through one man. His name is Darren Waller, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a unique defender and make it Fitzpatrick, who is maybe one of a handful of guys in the NFL who can match up with Darren Waller. Uh And, so I'm very excited to see that matchup in particular. Uh And we saw whenever the Ravens had anywhere close to type coverage on Waller, car was throwing a very safe pass in

his actions overthrowing him. Uh. In fact, a lot of the first half utility of the Raiders offense was born out of not being able to hit the tight window to Darren Waller. So I think if that's sort of the the key to unraveling the Raiders offensive scheme, then that is advantaged Steelers on top of the fact that you have a number of injuries the Raiders offense are dealing with now, injuries across the offensive line in incognito missing practice. They put a guard on I R this week.

They have Josh Jacob's missing practice, and the wide receivers were unimpressive against that Ravens secondary who was missing a ton of pieces. So um, I think ultimately the T J. Watt on the front floor are going to be able to generate an enormous amount of pressure on Car bring out the worst in him in terms of his passing. Uh. And then uh, you know, realistically you can keep the

Raiders into the teens here um maybe less. And then the Steelers offensively, they were not impressive against the Bills. I will completely admit that, although I graded their offensive line a lot better than my expectation going into that game, particularly the adjustments they made a halftime in the second half of that game. Uh. And I think with the number of web things that they have in the passing attack, you're going to have an ability to get the ball

out of Ben's hands quickly. Um, they're gonna be able to lean on naj Harris in the running game and getting him outside the tackles, which where he was the most effective against the Bills, and that should work and provide, you know, paid dividends for a Pittsburgh team that is still underrated by the market, even though this is a team that is healthier at every at basically every level on defense than they were when they finished last season, on top of the fact that Roethlisberger's arm is a

lot more live than when the Steelers collapsed at the end. All told, I think you're getting a good situational spot again with the Raiders on a short week coming off of a hugely emotional Monday night football game, heading across the country for the Steelers home opener. Uh and anything lower than a touchdown as they play. My fair in this one is Pittsburgh by seven, very thorough, very logical. Pittsburgh.

Mine is six. A few things. One, The Reds are already in trouble of the first tinning against the Pirates again Molly Molly's best road pitcher as baseball, and they're gonna blow this. They've lost eight straight series they refused to make the playoffs. It's unbelievable, uh to uh what you're saying about Darren Waller. His prop before that Ravens game the other night was like six catches and sixty

eight and a half yards. Immediately saw in primetime, actually, I go call me square, give me the over on the sixth eight half. Couldn't one the over in each He was targeted nineteen times every Raiders game. I see, I'm like, just passed the ball of the wall and they have where's that coming from? And then they and then they just uh they took it to heart apparently. And by the way, the end of that game, let's just walk through it real quick. End of the game.

So it's tied. Lamar Jackson fumbles, the Raiders are able to tie it up at seventeen. Then the Ravens score again. They tied up at four. So big thirty eight yard run by Lamar Jackson at the two minute mark. They get down it's a chip shot for Justin Tucker forty seven yard field goal with thirty seven seconds left in the game. He sinks it thirty seven seconds left in the game. They do not mortar kick it. They kick it through the ends on the game. How do you

not dribble the ball there scooted on the ground. I'm not saying kicking up in the air because the fair catching. But well, but yes, but even then neill pin them. So it's either you run time off the clock or you more, or you pin them one of the You can't take a chance of her, I said, you must. It's all about the clock. Yard. You've gotta run five to seven seconds off the clock or pin them thirty thirty seven seconds up. So they don't do that. And

two plays, really two successful plays all it took. Raiders tie the game up on a Dan Dani Carlson field goal. Okay, so it goes to overtime and then fifty five yard by the way, but that's the other thing that gets washed over. Like in the Minnesota game, Joseph hit one fifty yard or got ice and then hit another fifty two yard right two fifty yards in the right. I didn't work out on the end the uh in overtime. The bananas of that overtime, like so Carter Edwards from

the thirty four yard line touchdown Raiders. We could see it with our naked eye. Who was probably short. The field is filled with players. They're tapping up Lamar, They're tapping up everybody, and it's like, yeah, he's he's down. So they got to clear everybody out. Raiders get the ball. Derek Carr gets stymied on the first I guess because they blew the whistle. You know, I had under one and a half for shortest TD Oh wow, yeah, oh man. And then they then two plays later it's the uh.

Then it's the next play, it's then they do a hard can. They go a hard count and Alex Leatherwood jumps outside. You're like, I cannot believe what I'm watching. Sure enough, two plays later, off a helmet into the hands of the Ravens and you're like, I cannot believe it's happening. But then Lamar Jackson puts the ball on the ground again, which Drew and I talked about earlier this week. It's it's hard to get mad at Lamar Jazon because he's running for his life the entire game.

And then finally the touchdown where Marlon Humphrey in the middle of the ball in mid air just goes, yeah, you're gonna score there, You're good. That's just bananas, bananas. I don't know. Why do you like guilt, said Gil. Do you like Waller over six and a half minus one seventy four and a half, which is what it is currently a draft? Yes, just over over over all Derrick Cardos shouldn't. I mean, it seems to me that

that's the correct play. But but um Drew was saying that Minka Fitzpatrick is gonna is gonna get all over him. But still it's not gonna matter if they throw him eight hundred times, right, right, if they throw eight hundred times and it won't matter. But yeah, I agree with the make of ititz Patrick part of it too. But I mean, I'm not going under on Waller props. Let's put it that way. Uh, Todd, you go best bet first. You know, I don't like any of these damn games.

But if I have to pick one, Say, if I have to pick one, I'll take the New England Patriots minus the six at the New York Jets. Now, I was a little skeptical of all the mac jones. Everyone was getting a complete excited sexually over mac Jones, Like, oh my god, this guy is the greatest the quarterback in the history of football and he's unbelievable and oh my god. And I have to say I was actually pretty impressed with mac Jones. I'll be honest, I was

pretty impressed. It was a tough defense with with the Dolphins. They were inside the red zonal whole bunch of times. Granted, they had to kick field goals many times, and of course they screwed Gil in a fifty fifty toss up in the fourth quarter there Um, okay, Gil whatever. Anyways, the point is they were moving the ball. He did throw one gorgeous ball on a wheel route that I was like, God, damn, that was a rookie through that ball. I was like, this mac Jones might be for real.

And uh so I really liked what I saw out of mac Jones. And because of that, it's Belichick against some guy from b YU who also is creating sexual excitement for people. But they came back to earth with what's happening to you right now? I'm trying to say it in a nice way. I'm trying to say it in a in a family friendly way. I was going to use the B word, but I'm not gonna say everybody.

Everybody had a little too much excitement about Mr Zack Wilson and they came back to earth, and I think they're they're gonna have to come back to earth again this week. The Jets are not a good football team, folks. They're just not that good. And he's a rookie quarterback and he's going and get Belichick. Belichick is gonna, you know, draw something up and if Mac Jones is gonna play decently, I don't think minus six is so much to ask,

even though we're on the road. Okay, Mike, my top pick, I bet live at plus three, but I know now it's two and a half as the Cincinnati Bengals at the Chicago Bears. Um, but right now, right now it's mine. It's uh, it's too sort of what do you have guilt for that game? Um? I don't know if I have internet connection, so I can't tell you right now. My consensus says two and a half half. I think it's so Bengals. You're taking Bengals plus two and a half my gear. Yeah, the Bears defense is not good.

I mean, this is another team where we're listening to a narrative about like the football teams was um or you think the Giants is an average even they're not an average defense. This Bears defense is not good. I mean they the Dalton play all right on Sunday Night, but their defense doesn't stop anybody. You know, they gave up all these points. They gave up touchdowns and the drives in the reseason. I know it's the preseason, but it wasn't fourth stringers playing in the first quarter in

the preseas. I'm talking about first half possessions and their preseason games. Teams were going up and down the field like they were high school. That was their second string. They're they're not good on defense. Uh Khalil Mack is not the player he was three or four years ago, and I think Cincinnati will be able to move the ball here against him. I think it's a lower scoring game, but I think Cincinnati's the better team here. I'd make Cincinnati a favorite on a neutral field, and so I

think there's some value. I also bet him on the money line as well, so Cincinnati plus two and a half here. Cincinnati another team that benefited from a late fumble from a from a running back Dalvin Cook fumbling, and plus territory and overtime to suck the life out of the Vikings there in that one. So Cincinnati's your first pick. What is the Kansas City Chiefs line? Todd? Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Baltimore Ravens. I have

them at minus three and a half. Okay, So on guessing lines, which took place before the Ravens played on Monday Night, Christie and I do a whole thing where

again tribute to the old Stardust show. It's the other podcast episode here on the Beating the Book feed during football season, um, I guessed that site unseen with the Ravens that the Chiefs would end up being five and a half point favorites, and he goes, oh, no, your way off, it's two and a half, to which I replied, are you I wanted to say, are you fucking crazy?

Two and a half? What? And then the Ravens went out and showed us that not only do they have running back depth problem, but they're offensive line is in tatters. Villa Nueva with the worst offensive line score of anybody at Pro Football Focus all week long in the National Football League. You can't in six days fix your offensive line.

So even at three and a half, and again even if even if Baltimore, you know, even if uh you know, they play somewhat competently in this game, that offensive line is gonna put the Kansas City offense back on the field time and time again. I don't understand three and a half. And I have a one dollar wager one dollar United States with Chrissy that by game time it will get to my number. I may lose that dollar, but the point is I think it's gonna keep rising.

I will take Kansas City minus three and a half a fourth quarter of the Raiders game a morning hosted Visa not you at PAULI. Howard text me and he said, bet MGM has left this Baltimore Kansas City game up while this Monday night game is going on. Really, I said, what's the number right now? He said it's three? He said, I like the chief. Should I bet it now? I said, And what world do you think it's going to be less than three a right game? You want to come

back at four or four and a half? I thought, and I said it might get to five by game time. The three in my account earlier the week I bought it down to the three just for the heck of it. Yeah, but three and a half. I'll take Kansas City is my number one play, and again call me square, I'll take in Kansas City. Also, it was kind of surprising that a John Harbaugh kind of team doesn't win that game,

like twenty thirteen or twenty to seventeen. It was seventeen ten with nine minutes to go and they had the ball to me. I thought, Okay, they'll come down, they'll kick the field goal, they'll go up twenty to ten. Then maybe they'll give him a backward field goal or touchdown. They're gonna win the game, right, That's a John Harbaugh type of football game. But that's not what happened. They let the Raiders go right down the I believe it was first in goal from the twenty, and they let

him score touchdown first in goal from the twenty? Are you kidding me? You can make the argument though, that the game didn't flatter the Raiders. There's the play in the first quarter on the opening drive where they have a double injury and a holding penalty and end up with no points when they're on the eight team. Then there's a horrific offensive past interference call as they're coming off the goal line that never gets called in the NFL,

and it's a bad call. I mean, there were some things there where you could say this Raiders result, it was unfortunate that they even went to overtime. I think we're gonna look back on that game and we're gonna be like, those were two really mediocre football teams. I really do competitive Exactly when I put up on Twitter, I said this is seven to eight to nine win teams. That's what they are. I don't disagree with that. I

just want to add Gil. I don't know if you saw this because you were on the air, but Ronnie Stanley, oh yes, I heard at the end of the show. Yeah, I cut you off. Finishes the finish. I'm sorry, Ronnie Stanley out Yeah no, yeah, yeah, like the out for a while. So Villanueva now goes to the left table spot and put in a replacement level player. Excellent it. How is that line? What it is like? I don't understand why. I understand why there's not more money flowing

into Kansas City. I don't know either. I think Holmes is missing the past. This car was missing in the first half of that game. I mean there was he was he was not good car in the first half of that game. Yeah, and I think I think you have a good pick though on Casey there and uh, ultimately I thought the Raiders exposed that the Ravens defense is not top ten. You know, they were expected to be a top five maybe top three unit, and they have major major issues on defense that's not fixable in

one week. And health issues, depth issues, lots of problems. Uh and uh. I can tell you though that there is someone out there in the market who has who was baiting Baltimore for all day yesterday to try to

get that number. And so there's a pretty aggressive there's some pretty aggressive orders out there that are getting filled for anything that's even a like a flat or a or a flattering three and a half four at the point of resistance, then yeah, yeah, I don't I don't think it's yeah it maybe it may, you know, the day of the game. Who knows. Yeah, Um, for now, at least, there's a lot of Baltimore buy for whatever reason, I don't understand it. I don't understand it either, Todd

because go ahead, Drew, go ahead. I'm sorry. They had a little bit of vanilla game plan Baltimore offensively, So somebody may be thinking like, oh, they were saving the good place because they thought they could beat the Raiders easily. Right, Like the game plan from the Raiders. Ravens was not plus TV at all. Like a lot of their best stuff,

we didn't see it. Um, if they were saying it saving it for the Chiefs, if the Chiefs defense and tackling issues are as problematic as we saw against the Browns, then maybe the Ravens can go score for score with these guys. But if that's the case, then this total is going to get blasted. I agree with Drew what happened to this new look Ravens offense. This was the same old stuff Greg Roman needs go go back to and Holy Spirit. That's assault continues from Mike Palm year

after year. All Right, Todd, you get honors here because I know you complained before the season. Yes, because I was always the last last time. Okay, I'm gonna take you know. I don't know, but I like the over in the Cincinnati Bengal Bear game. Um, I kind of agree with Mike Palm that the Bears defense doesn't really strike fear into anybody, and the Bengals, actually we're scoring the ball after a very slow start in the Vikings game,

they were scoring the ball. It made me be remembered of the Joe Burrow, you know, showing a lot of green shoots back before he got injured the first year. And I'm starting to think, hey, maybe the Cincinnati team on offense is pretty good and or at least, you know, at least average to slightly above average, and so I think they could get some points for you against the Bears defense. And I thought the Bears offense actually didn't look too bad. They were running the ball on the Rams.

I was like, every time they hand off in the first half, they're gashing the hell out of the vaunted Rams supposed front four Montgomery guys running for nine yards, twelve yards, eleven yards. Andy Dalton is throwing it around, and I'm like wow, And I'm thinking the Bears don't look that bad on offense. You know, had had Stafford not hit those big long plays, that game could have

been much closer game. Now, granted, the Bears you know, defense didn't do them any any uh, you know, favors, But I just thought the Bears look better on offense then you would have expected them to look with h with what might cause the beige water pistol Andy Dalton back there. And I think that, um, I think that the Bears will be able to score because I don't think Cincinnati's defense is you know, it's probably slightly below average, right if if average to below average, forty five is

not really that high. So you know what, give me over over forty five with the Bengals against the Bears. Todd if you were still a Jew and not have renounced you, what would you what sins would you atone for today? Just curious betting on Matt Ryan ever, betting on Philip Rivers ever? Uh? And that's when I do every year. Um. Other other sins involved embarrassing good friends about their weight. That's not when you're not supposed to do. And uh, I don't know calling Mikey a mediocre talk

show host. Maybe that would be wrong too. Wow Wow, Sorry, I asked, all right, jerw Ski, what's next? What do you got? Uh? So this one was a little bit of a hold your nose play, But I gotta be on the right side of this number. I'm gonna take the Colts at plus three and a half Indianapolis in uh in a better I guess guess the market really, in my opinion, overreacted to what you saw on Sunday

Night football with the Rams and the Bears. I thought, you know, in general has pointed out and by the way, so far, I don't think we've had a losing pick. I love everything that you guys have said. Uh. And I'm in general agreement here. Um, but I did think the Rams defense got exposed to a degree on the ground. That's a team that if you can put two hats on are in donald there's a lot of soft spots, particularly in the running game. And a team like Indianapolis

that's like their plan a. Uh. You know, they want to dictate with offensive line. They want to get Jonathan Taylor going early in this game. Uh. And I think you saw a very poor performance out of the Colts in Week one, particularly in the first half, and it was all borne out of rust. Really, Carson Wentz got almost no reps with this team in the preseason because of the foot injury. They throw them out their Week one and expected him to perform well against a relatively

stout Seattle front. Uh. And no, no, no, no, no, bottom five, bottom five in the NFL. Absolutely, Yeah, there's and I'm not counting on Carson Wentz to you know, light the world on fire here to get me this W. I literally would like Jonathan Taylor to be sort of the featured part of the Colts offense this week and get out to a nice lead. And honestly, a guy

like Carson Wentz you can play fairly well with the lead. Uh. And I think that's really the game state that the Rams are going to find themselves in coming in in a just a brutal situation. They played in prime time. They spent the entire preseason on the West coast. Uh and uh, now they gotta go fly east. They gotta kick off at you know, the crack of dawn their time. Uh. And I think you can get you know, this sets up well for the Colts to kind of play from

ahead to a degree. And uh, you know, there's a lot of positives that I think you can point to in terms of what they did at half time adjusting to the Seattle Seahawks attacks. Seattle came out in that game and they picked apart. You know, they they every everybody's talked about this. They were using the cover two busters, right, and these are you know, the cover two has been solved.

This is how you beat it, right. And it was almost like the Colts sort of forgot that those plays were you know, would likely be coming, and they didn't weren't really prepared for it, but they adjusted at halftime. I felt like, and in general, you have exactly the same offensive philosophy at the Rams as you have now with the Seahawks, with Shane Waldron going from John mcveigh's

staff to Seattle. So the fact that that Colts defense just saw this approach and now they're, uh, they get it again, and they just they just did some adjustments in game, and now they get a whole week to continue to fine tune those adjustments. I think the sets of wealth for the Colts to get an outright win, honestly.

Um and Uh. I guess the last point I'll bring up is, you know, the look ahead here was you know Rams minds one and a half, Rams minds two, and now you know, off of one week of action, they've now adjusted out past three. Uh. That's a huge win probability cestimate that I don't think is warranted based on what we saw from these two teams week one at all. Uh. And so I'll take the free points Indianapolis Drew's second play of the best bets. Mike your second,

Now you get three and a half. Yeah, yeah, I said, I'll take the free I'll take the free points. Was my free point? Yes, sir, very dramatic. Paulsy debating a little bit here, but I'm gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks. Let's get your mic up there. Seattle Seahawks, Jason, Seattle Seahawks. It's hot? Are they laying six? Is that the number six? The Seattle Seahawk is laying Where the hell are they? They are laying six? Yeah, I would say six, Yes,

six minus fifteen there's yeah, we'll give you six. I think that the Seattle was extremely efficient in Annapolis on offense when they had the ball, and the defense played better than I thought they would against forementioned bottom five cars and wins. Here's the thing that I don't think is an overreaction to Week one. The Titans are not good. The Titans are not winning that division. The Titans are not getting to the playoffs. The defense is still bad.

It's always been bad. We forget how bad it was because they win eleven games and go to the playoffs. Now This was the thing that I thought would happen. I thought that Arthur Smith going to Atlanta would hurt them because he was the only guy that could make Tannehill decent. Tannehill couldn't start over a wide receiver at Texas and him he was a turnover machine in Miami and the last two years with Arthur Smith, Tannehill has been a top five quarterback statistically. You saw him. I

thought their game plan was lost on offense. You didn't get Henry to have any impact on the game. And the biggest thing to me is you're down seventeen and halftime and you put up nothing in the second half at home and your home opener, you don't even dent into the into the cardinal lead at all. You know, I'm I'm down on them, And I thought the Seahawks. Now you get fans back to Seattle, a place where you didn't have fans as year. They to the Giants at all last year. I think that that rabid fan

base is worth a few points here. And I think I made this number seven coming off a week one, so I'll lay I don't love to play, but I'll lay this six here. I'm gonna be using them in teasers and money line Parlot's Seattle, they couldn't even garbage time when they were getting where they when they were in the in the huge premat, you thought for sure, for sure Tennessee would get at least late. See my non overreaction overreaction a week one was the opposite side.

I think Arizona is for real. Like I, I almost want to go out and get futures of them. I think I will. Um Russell Wilson eighteen of two fifty four last week, four touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. He's eleventh career game with four plus touchdowns and not picks. That's the seventh most all time. And in the first half, which is wheready Katie bar the door. He was nine of eleven for one sixties six and three touchdowns against who did Seattle play last week? Real

quick Indianapolis? That's right, um um I am? What's the what's the Buffalo Miami line? Todd? Is it still three and a half Little Bills or minus three and a half Give me the Dolphins plus three and a half? Um Las Vegas. Chris and I talked about this a little bit yesterday on a numbers game um. Last week, Buffalo six point home favorites against Pittsburgh. They end up losing largely on the strength of a special teams touch

in the block punt um. In that game in the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh scored seventeen points in the fourth quarter. And now the Bills on the road against the Dolphins only dropped down two and a half points to three and a half. Well, this is minus nine and a half if you think about it, this is minus nine and a half at home. So they're saying Bills minus six against the Steelers, now minus nine and a half

if they were at home against Miami. It's cuckoo. If I could have continued, I would have said the exact same thing. That's exactly right. And so I do think that Brian Flores and that coaching staff are really, really good. I know there's this knock on the Dolphins. Maybe it's justifiable where it tends to be a little more smoke in mirrors when you look at a box score than it does for other teams, But at some point, um, when it happens time and time again, I'm not so

sure it's smoking mirrors. It's actually they just figured out some good in game coaching, and I figured out optimal ways to win ball games to US seven and three. Now, I know that will blow Michael Lombardi's head off his body because I know the jury still out on to A. But you're giving me the three in the hook here. Given that point spread, Cork, I will happily take the Dolphins in a division game, and if I lose by three, it lose by three still a winning bet. I'll take

the Dolphins plus three and a half day. I love your pick, go I. I don't have the balls to do it, but I do love the pick because it's ridiculous that the Bills would be minus nine and a half at home against Miami and Flores. It throw out the statistics. Remember Belichick used to not have such great statistics that yet he would win every game. He would cover every single game, and people are like, well, wait, don't understand how is this happening in the New England's

with yards for play. It's or As is one of those guys. He has something down, he has something yeared out. We had an NFL modeler with when I used to work with Dr Bob. We had a guy who did NFL and every week his model would come up, Oh, I gotta fade the Patriots. So I gotta fade the Patriots like every weekend. Finally, Captor week ten, Jerusal lapic is du probably knows this with the models. After week ten, week eleven, we had told him, We're like, and I

can't Mike, I believe was his name. Mike. You gotta just you gotta remove this from the equation. There's just there's something that's not being picked up. It's Bill Belichick, and it's just it's it's it was a truism, and I think the Dolphins would definitely get that feel with Flores. Now you're this is more than one year now that he has shown us. You know something's going on here. Yes, I agree, Drew number three, What do I like on this board? I'm gonna go like a lot? Well, I

played five sides this week. Does that concern you when you like a lot? By the way, is there's a little voice in your head that's like, oh no, I like too much? No? You know, okay, Well it's more I'm more nervous and I gotta force a couple. You know. It's uh, it's it's the other way around. Um, I liked. I liked I'm not gonna take the paths because I like the Todd's breakdown. That was fair. I agree with that um, and I agreed with the Mike Seattle look

as well. I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings. Currently, the consensus number there is three and a half. Again, I don't disagree with Gil's point in general that Arizona is for real, uh, and adjusting them up after their performance in your power numbers is fine. That is a

completely fair point of view. This is still too big of a number when you consider that the Arizona defense really made their you know, made Hay with you know, it's just a standout performance from Chandler Jones in that game, got a couple of huge, high leverage turnovers that swung

win probability early. Uh. And then uh, you know, Tennessee's defense, like Mike had brought up, is so poor that they're going to make the opposing quarterbacks that they play all season long look like m VP candidates in my opinion, And uh, this is a little bit tougher test. Minnesota's defense isn't all that much better than what we saw from them last year. Despite all of their off season acquisitions and some of the players coming back off of

COVID UH time off. But I will say that this is going to be a more difficult UM ask of Kyler Murray and click Cliff Kingsbury to go uh and score thirty plot points here. Uh. And realistically, you have still Justin Jefferson and Adam Finland performing at all pro level with um Kirk Cousins who can do it under

pressure as we've seen throughout his career. UH. And I think Minnesota is set up well to either um you know, get the early lead, uh and play from a head, which is the where where they are their best, or you know, come through the back door here. As long as I'm getting the hook on three so UM, I played this one earlier in the week at four and a half, it's now moved into three and a half.

I think that's directionally the correct move here. My fair price in this game is too So anytime I can be on the right side of three, I will be happy. And Minnesota at plus three and a a half, Minnesota three and a half. So Drew, your three were once again they were UH stealers, Ye stealers, UM six plus three and a half and Vikings plus thing half. Alright, Mikey, I have the same pig as Todd. I like the Patriots Patriots this week, and I'll lay the six. UM.

I wasn't impressed with the Jets here. Here's what I think they lost by five. I know they were on the road and it's their opening game, but I think the Patriots was no, it wasn't. They had a back door touch, but they did nothing in the first half at all. Didn't the Jets receivers drop a lot of passes though, like that could have been a little better. I believe the Patriots offense is clearly superior to Carolina's offense, and I think the Patriots defense is clearly superior the

Carolina's defense. All right, So I'm gonna get a number that's similar. Is similar. I know they're on the road, it's similar to the margin of victory of the last game against an inferior team. UM, And so I agree with Todd here, Dodd, uh, I'll take under forty five in the Denver game, UM under forty five and Teddy two gloves versus UM Jacksonville. Jacksonville's offense was not very good. I don't know whether Houston Texans have a good defense, or they don't have a good defense. But I was

not impressed with whatever Jacksonville was throwing out there. Uh, this did not look like ready for prime time offense to me. And I thought Denver's defense played well against the Giants, and now you're gonna ask the Denver defense to go play Jacksonville, which I think is even worse than the Giants. And the Giants couldn't score on Denver. So I'm thinking Denver is gonna go into you know, they're gonna play real conservative with Teddy two Gloves. Vic

Fangio fits that mold. He's the defensive coach. He's like just first, like Mike said, first, do no harm, the Socratic oath, and that's what my my friend Teddy two Gloves like to do. He likes to first do no harm and just let's not make any mistakes, place solid defense, and get out of here with like a twenty three to thirteen win or something. You know, that's the kind of that's the kind of Teddy two loves type of

type of game. I don't think Jacksonville is gonna be very successful in offense, and I don't think Denver's gonna, you know, light the board up because they're gonna play a conservative, So I'm gonna try to go under. I have forty five and a half someplace forty five four and a half, so I'll take forty five to be fair.

Under forty five Denver against the Jags. Hippocratic Socratic. Socratic is for teachers, Socrates about protecting each child, and Socrates that whatever the oath is, thou shalt not throw an interception. That's the point. That's the wish, wish Nevick. Oh, if I believe that is all right for my third I so badly want to take the Atlanta Falcons plus the points at Tampa. I really do, But I just can't do it again, can't. I just can't do it um

in the end. And and by the way, I also wanted to take the under in tonight's game the Giants in Washington, even at forty and a half, because I think it's gonna be a slog fest tonight on Thursday Night football, But I did not. Ultimately, what I end up with is and Drew with apologies. Drew and I are gonna be APO on the Rams and the Colts three and a half. I just really, I'm just trying to picture you close your eyes and your picture that

Carson Wentz offense against Darren Donald in that defense. And you're right about Todd, You're right about Chicago. That was a weird first half on Sunday night where the Bears did make some hay against the Rams, and it was it was a strange first half because it was even you know, in that interception took place in the end zone for the Rams, where you're like, wow, this is the scenario where the Bears could be leading this game.

But I just ultimately think that uh Sean McVan that offense are gonna put up enough points to outlast the Colts offense. And so while I don't think it's a blowout, I think the Rams do just enough to get that number. And really, honestly, I had trouble coming up with my third favorite, so I don't like it as much as the first two, but ultimately that's the one that I feel the most comfortable with, as opposed to say, the

Atlanta Falcons plus the twelve and a half. By the way, in recency, I believe you were heads up with Drew Dinseck and some tennis matches, and he went against the Great Gilly god of tennis ticks and God burned did not which match, I can't remember which ones. There's a couple, but let me just tell you about Drew Dinseck. Drew Dins has been betting tennis before betting tennis. Was cool, isn't that right? Drew? I can't hear we lost Drew. We lost Drew. We can't hear Drew. We need Drew's response.

You're back. I got so excited talking tennis. Yeah, let me go back to our text chain, because Gill and I text tennis from time to time. Go back to like, say, let we'll go back to Layton late May and we were talking about Djokovic Nadal at the French Open. I was like, I don't know, my good I just said, you know, I got I got Joker to win the French, win Wimbledon, and then lose to Medvedev in the US

Open finals. I was I must have been I must have been fasting that day because the clairvoyance was was with me and I stuck to my guns on Medvedev and ultimately, uh that was That was one of the bigger wins I've had one so far, so I was pretty fired up about that. But on the women's side of the US Open, I think I lost head to head against Gil five times I had had. I wasn't. I wasn't even I was nowhere close to fair on either of the two teenagers that made the final. So

I got Gil. We should all get on the colts. Well, it's a different sport. It's an entirely different arena, that's for sure. We've done all the best did very well at the US Open. I did very well hardcourt season. I lost. It was a thirty unit hardcore. I lost. It was luck. It was all luck, that's right. I lost needle in a haystack. I lost one match, but I got off of it. I had a lot of money I thought. I I thought that Sabo Linka could handle this Fernandez served and she couldn't handle that serve

down the middle. So immediately I got off of it because it became a flip at a coin flip of a match when she couldn't handle that lefty serve down the tea. I thought she'd dominate that server, verson she couldn't. Sabolanca people love to bet Sabolanca, but until she I mean, I don't know if she's ever gonna get I also thought she was mentally weaker than the teenager in that match. She showed all the frustration. Yeah, she got at a little push. That's exactly Drew. I want to do a

slam podcast on beating the book feed. I hope you will join me. I really did me you, Dan Weston will have a ball all right, somebody else wants I would love to do that. What did you say? Nobody else? Nobody else? Unlets use Yeah, nobody else ever asked me to do. Test POSTA did a couple of great previews. She's teaching at LSU today, Pamela, Mom, did you see that? I gotta tell Matt Brown and ls. She's speaking at a course on sports betting at l s U today.

Tweed about it. Wow, I gotta tell Matt Um. Yeah. No, we totally have to do that. And that's a That's another point too. It doesn't matter how much fortune we make in tennis or how great these baseball pennant races are. No one cares. It's just what no one cares you made? Who cares? I want to make and lose money at football? Alright? Final one question before the final two questions, is teaser of the Wee Todd your teaser of the week? You started, Okay,

I'm gonna go in Teaserville. I'm gonna go with road teams. I know you're not supposed to do it, but I don't care. I'm gonna take the Denver Broncos to win the game over the Jaguars. I already said, why you know, come on, Urban Meyer, give me a break. Uh. Patriots will be my other pick. I just don't see Belichick losing to the Jets. So I know these two teams are on the road, and by the way you check your money lines, you might be able to do this

better and as a money line. But Broncos and Patriots at pick them, both of them. Give me those drew. Yeah, last week was the teaser delight. Uh, there were there were so many choices, honestly, and this week there's only one an advantage leg on the board in Cincinnati. Thankfully. I see a little bit of value there, as you know, without even the six points. But I'll happily take Cincinnati out past seven. Uh So Cincinnati eight and a half is the easy call. Uh, And yeah, I'll do something

a little controversial here. I'll pair that with Green Bay at the current eleven. Bring that down to five. Just get me across the touchdown. With this Green Bay team against Detroit, I think that's probably one of the um

it's one of the more lopsided matchups. And the fact that people got that backdoor with Detroit in week one I think has thrown a lot of the stench off exactly how bad that team the Green The San Francisco forty Niners led the Detroit lines by twenty four points with two minutes left in the game, and next thing you knew, San Francisco excuse me, Detroit had the ball down eight at the Niners twenty four yard line in regulation.

Just incredible. They of course, they recovered an onside kicking there, which only happened four times all the last It's a huge result for us. Was its close nine and a half. There's a lot of people like, oh, what a bad beat, and the seven and a half was there all summer long? Of course, yeah, of course, you know what. I don't go with people with that, Oh you should have bought it earlier. Okay, fine, that's true, but it's still a bad beat. When the other team gets in damn on site.

Kick my god, you want to argue on Yon kipor on everything. I'm just saying, it's um for me, New England, Cincinnati, Me Cincinnati Steelers. Oh wait wait wait wai New England, New England, Cincinnati for me and Cincinnatius eat and a half and mikey is I'm Cincinnati plus sat and a half Steelers pick them? Steelers teas down to basically basically just have to beat or not basically just have to beat Vegas. And you even have like a half it was it a half point or one and a half?

Does he get Steelers are because it's the same as Patriots, same as Brown that's they're all down to a pick because we have ties wind correct correct alright, because you have different No, no, you don't. You know what about the survivor we're going to talk about survivor? Oh yeah, what would be your survivor pick? That's right. I'm sorry, Drew, if you had to Drew, what would be a survivor here? I'm fine taking the Packers out this week? Me too, Yeah,

that's fine fine with me. I think I think you need to save Cleveland. Um, there's a reasonable chance that that that Cleveland is your pick against the Packers and Christmas. If something happens Dan Rogers with this week offensive line indoor, with his potential exit from green Bay, that might be Jordan's love season for all we know. Yeah, I am, I have no I get it, there's a green Bay thing on Christmas. I'm playing the Packers this week and

just moving on. And if you beat me, you beat me. Mike, I'm either gonna I mean, I wasn't going to do that, but now that you're saying that, yeah, but I give it opinion. I won with my pick. I get if the man has theoretically compete, right, I just want to say, Todd, you're in. It's still right, Yeah you are. You have how many entries? Just one? I had the Rims, you had the Rams. Okay, and that's what I would have done theoretically, one with the Rams. So where are you

going this week? Dodd? No, your first go ahead? Oh jeez, I would do it. I would take the football team tonight. I would wall here in this spot. Wow. That's why, when you're theoretical, you can do that exactly person, you're talking me into green Bay. I was worried about the Christmas stuff. Um, you're talking to me in the Green

Bay now. But before I was getting talked into Green Bay, I was thinking about the Denver Broncos because I looked at their schedule and there's not that many times you're gonna want to take the Denver Broncos the rest of the year, and this might be one of the few times you're gonna get an opportunity to take the Denver Broncos. So I was thinking about taking them against the Jaguars instead,

and then you can keep the Packers live for later. Um. The other team that I was thinking about it was another team that I didn't think there was that many opportunities to take, was the Patriots. But I think there's other there's better opportunities to take the Patriots. So I was thinking about the Uh, I still might take the Broncos. I'm not I think you need Denver live next week. They got their home opener against the Jets. They'll be

like nine point favorites if they hold Serve this week. Yeah, I was looking at the thing though I thought there was somebody better. Um, I'm not sure. Let me look at my grid. But Houston plays Caroline on Thursday, Baltimore plays Detroit. Mike's got a show to do. Todd, just pick one, Okay, forget it. I just I said to take the Broncos. Okay, I'll take the Broncos. He'll burn them. Do you think do you think Jacksonville is gonna be the team that everybody picks on this year in Survivor?

They I think that they thought it would be Houston, and after week one now they might be Jackie Jacksonville. All right, final two questions. So I guess you didn't want to hear the Young Kipper massacre story. There's no you don't have time. You could tell it after I leave. I've heard it. We'll finish with the Young Kipper mascuer um. Okay, So which is awesome? So all right? Uh the big Face rites, which is most likely in your opinion, to

lose outright the candidates. The biggest favorites on the board, of course, are the aforementioned Green Bay Packers, who are double digit favorites against Detroit. Obviously, there's also double digit favorites with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Falcons. And I wish this wouldst popping up on my screen and Cleveland double digits favorites double digit favorites rather against Houston. Are there any six and a half or graders? Besides that,

I don't believe there are. So those are the only those are the only choices. One of those big favorites loses outright, who's the most likely? Drew? I see, I thought I was gonna have a great segue and talk to you about how Jacksonville is going to be Denver but only six point favorites. But but I like that, What do you think they could? I do? I mean this game? You know, one week ago you could have

laid one and a half with Denver. You know, the the entire summer goes by, and we grade these two teams as about equal, and what happens in week one? Denver loses. Jerry Judy, I don't understand why we're adjusting so aggressively off of one outcome. And I get it. Trevor Lawrence looked terrible. He looked terrible, But guess what he was a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach and his opening NFL start on the road. Like how many times have we seen that before? Like every single time?

Like paid Manning probably looked like trash and his his opening start on the road whatever, So you know that there's not I'm I'm fine passing on uh you know, you know, giving him a pass on that. But yeah, this six points with the Jacks is just it's just egregious. I don't think any of those those three guys. I hope you guys are wrong. I don't think you're crazy at all. I would agree that if that was eligible, that would be the third choice. That would be the case.

They got to go back to back road games, just for giggles. If it's just the three double digit ones, he's muted again. Oh, he's muted again. Drew. Let's get let's get Drew back. I don't think the other I don't think the other three teams have any realistic likelihood

of losing. But I agreed with Gil that the number for Tampa Bay Atlanta is bonkers, like there's no math And again going back to the math model, there's no math model in the world that is telling anyone to bet Tampa Bay at that number, Like it's like almost I don't know what you would have to how how skewed you would have to be off market? To say that that Tampa Bay price is fair. But I didn't walk to the window in bed Atlanta this week. No way. Yeah,

that's basically my attitude with it too. Alright, well, can we scrap at that Taylor? But wait, my man, Tyrod Taylor, who was my pick of the week last week, is going against the Brownies. And I'm not saying that they're gonna win or anything, but the stranger things have happened with that dumb idiot Baker Mayfield, who's playing much better. We have to give him credit, but he is an idiot and um, and so you never know, you never know, Houston Texans maybe. By the way, are the Houston Texans

really this horrendous? I mean, Tyrod Taylor was a playoff quarter. Are they drew though? Are they? I Mean? I do a player level model, in a team level model, and both of them would tell me to lay the points with the Cleveland this week. Wow, Okay, Todd, would you do one of those ten point three teamers that you used to do at the South Point with these three big favorites and take the Packers down all of them

under a field that was it will? That's actually a nice idea, Actually, I know you were very successful with him and Todd's. I think I was like nine and two that it's it's a rod it rhymes with Todd by the way, all right, last proper As long as you don't you know, you stab the guy in the heart with a needle. If you don't do that, he's got he's gotta go do the nuts or what's it called. Though, there's a big difference. There's a big difference though with Torod.

Taylor's playing from a head or playing from behind, and if he's playing from behind in this game, then you've got big problem. I like that. That's a nice note too. Alright, game you want no part of your bizarro world? You pick aside and every one of these except one? What's the game you want no part of? Drew shoot? I should have had this cute a little bit better. H God, Dag go to New Orleans, Carolina. I don't know about how this COVID prep is gonna work out for them?

All right, go to it. Thank you. You don't want him all you don't want them all Shaw doing a solo show today. Well, I'll still beat him to the studio. It's okay, all right, Thanks guys. Thank you, Mikey Todd.

Which game you want no part of? I don't know about the RAMS cults because I know you guys have strong opinions on the RAMS Cults, But you know, I always like Frank Reich, and I don't know, is Carson Wench just gonna pull the whole team down and the Rams sort of didn't you know, I wasn't that impressed with them, So I don't want any part of that game.

It's easy to pick one of these, like big spread games, like I mean, I could pick Detroit Green Bay and say, oh, well, it's eleven even though I think green Bay is gonna roll them. Eleven is still eleven um. But I think I think for me it might be tonight's game between the Giants and Washington, Like I just don't you know, I'm a lifelong Washington football team fan. I know how these kinds of games go sometimes and they're always close. Like I don't game right, whoever makes the big turnover

the game? Yeah, I would say tonight Giants in Washington by the way of Washington loses. Man, they could be they could very easily be two and eight before the bye, but they have those five division games late. Is there only the Asian game before the last five weeks of the season, so they have a get out of jail free sequence at the end of the year that could still have them winning the division even if it's like four and eight or five and seven heading into it.

So there's that um trust and Taylor heineck Man, he's not that bad. No, No, I love they I love the kid. But you know, he said one start so far, I'm excited to be sweating out my under forty two and a half when they go to overtime and I'm cheering for the tie. It smells like that had that happened last week. By the way, I caught the best number on under forty eight and a half in Cincinnati, Minnesota. We were also close to landing on forty eight. It

was so close. The only game, the only game in the history of overtime in the NFL since ninety four when the instituteed it, that went to overtime with zero zero on the clock at the end of regulation and that was decided with a winner at zero zero at the end of overtime in the history of overtime in all those years, which is what forty seven years of football forty six plus. Alright, Todd, we conclude to days. Oh we lost her again. Let's get your back, Drew

muted again. I'm You're back, Okay. Here was not Jewish, so he's not gonna appreciate the amazement of this story. But he's a he's a renaissance man. He's a very worldly individual. He's cosmopolitan. He will, he will appreciate your story. Please tell in on behalf of all Jews everywhere. The YOUM Kipper massacre which was not also we should probably have a disclaimer, was not an actual massacre. Just what

Todd about it was it was a financial one. Uh. The Young Kipper massacre story is the greatest story proof that there that the world is really quantum mechanics and none of this is real at all. I can prove this to you by this story right here, and um. It starts in two thousand fourteen, when I didn't have a ton of money and I made a huge bet on Youme Kipper because it was October four, two thousand fourteen, and I wasn't doing Young Kipper anymore because I'm a

renounced Jew, not a Jew. Renounced Jews we don't do yum kipper. And it was Saturday, and I went to my friend's house, who was like a fagazzy jew who was fasting. He's kind of like Gil. He was fasting, but he's not really a temple or anything. He's like a joker. But he was gonna sit there and watch the games with me. And so anyways, it's it's the afternoon game USC against Arizona State. I really need to win this bet because I made a big bet on the second half under thirty four and a half. You

can check the play by play on this game. It's a crazy, crazy game. But anyways, um, what happened was I was so far ahead in this game there was no way they were gonna go over thirty four and a half in the second half. That when it became nightfall, yam kipper ends and I said to my friend, I'll go around the corner and get you sandwich. You were fasting all day. I'm not even worried about watching this game because I know I have it in the bag, and um, I needed to win the bet, but I

wasn't even concerned. So I went around the corner, I got him a sandwich and came back. Whatever be it, be it as it may. There's a million crazy touchdowns at the end. There's on site kicks, there's all kinds of crazy nonsense. On site kick, run back for touch, all kinds of insanity happens, or on site kick in the next place, a touch craziness. Even with all the craziness that ensued, they still only had thirty four and

they were a half point short. On the last play of the football game, Arizona State has the ball at the USC forty five. We all know it's coming. It's called a hail Mary, and they're gonna throw the hail Mary. They'll knock it down and I'll survive and they'll all be fine. So what happens is the quarterback for Arizona State goes back to pass. He throws the hail mary.

Jalen Strong I believe, jumps up at the two yard line in front of a massive congregation of people, grabs the ball falls into the end zone for the touchdown. The Memorial Colisseum is absolutely quiet because it wins the game for Arizona State in the most shocking of games in a In a game the USC had in complete control of I mean absolutely complete control of this game and somehow they lost it. Everybody is stunned. Me and

my friend are like, he can't. He starts laughing like a hyena because he can't even He's so ridiculously shocked at what happened, and he knows that I really needed to win this game. That he's just laughing like uncontrollably because it's unbelievable what just happened. Okay, fine, be that as it may. We've all heard bad beat stories, right, We've all heard bad beat stories. Big deal. It's a bad beat, right, Todd, what's so great about this story?

Nothing so great about this Todd. Okay, fine, here comes the great part. So that's the end of that. It's just a bad beat. I really needed to win. I had no business losing, and I lost. Fine. Now it's two weeks later, and we used to go to this uh uh coffee being in Beverly Hills and sit out front all the time and argue about politics and was all craziness. But anyways, we would talk to all the

people there. There was some guy there, h this old Hungarian guy who was in the holocausts, the Holocaust stories, I mean, crazy crazy stories. Anyways, we come friendly with him a little bit, and it turns out that he um was the grandfather of a guy in college football. So my friend says, hey, do you know this guy in college Now my friend doesn't know anything about college football, right, He sends me an email and says, do you know this guy in college football? I met his grandfather today?

I said, are you like, is this candid camera? Are you joking about this or you seriously? Because he's never ever met any college football's grandfather's life and at the coffee shopper anywhere else, he tells me do you know this guy? Right? And he's being serious. He doesn't know who it is. I said, are you messing with me? He goes, no, No, I'm not messing with you. I just met this guy's grandfather. I said, that's the guy who through the hail Mary passed two weeks ago to

destroy me and the young Kipper massacre. Do you remember that? He goes, No, way, that's the guy's grandfather is Mike Burka VICI is this guy's of all the guys in the world, We've never met anybody's grandfather who was in college football. He meets the guy that two weeks before. Okay, that's fine. It's still a crazy coincident. But now here's where it gets really spooked. So when he goes, oh, you gotta come over and meet Reuben. So I run over there and start talking to Reuben. Blah blah blah.

We you know, it turns out the whole Holocaust is fine. Now he goes, He goes. She says he's got some crazy Holocaust stories too. I mean, don't get me fung. I won't even go into that. But anyways, so so now Rute, we're talking to Reuben, and Rubens go, oh, yeah, my my grandson. Yeah, Mike Burke reach. We used to go to all the games and blah blah blah. He goes, yeah, especially it was here in l A. Because the guy lives in l A. Right of course he's going to

be at the coliseum. I said, oh, so you were at the game two weeks ago when they had the miracles. He goes, oh, you mean the Holy Moly. I go, no, no, Hail Mary. He calls it the Holy Mole because he's from you know, Hungary. He doesn't know. He goes, the Holy Moley. No, I wasn't at the game. I go, you go to all the games. But you weren't at the Holy Mole game. Why weren't you at the Holy Mole game? It's right here in l A and you

live here. And now he used to go to all the games, and even in Arizona, because he goes, oh, I didn't go because it was young Kipper. I go, what, you're Jewish? He goes, yeah, yeah, I'm Jewish. I didn't go to the game because it was the Holm Kipper. I said, now wait a second, Now, your your daughter is Jewish and she's the mom of Mike work Recio. The Orthodox Jews they count only Judaism if it goes through the mom. We won't go into all that lineage nonsense,

but the point is the Jews can't. The serious Jews only count you're Jewish if your mom is Jewish. Turns out Mike Bercovici is a Jew. Okay, Now I'm gonna tell you if you know anything about calling. You like analytics, Drew right, you like analytics? How many Jewish college football players are there the whole world? Zero point point point point zero zero zero, There's are one. There's none, There's none, exactly, And now not only is there the guy we needs grandfather.

The only time we ever met anybody's grandfather is the guy the two weeks before through the Youme Kimper massacre pass. But wait, it gets better. He's a goddamn jew. Okay, kipper throws the Yo Kimper massacre. At that point, I was just like, Okay, pull the curtains back somehow, I know this can't be real. This is insane, Okay, And so that is the youme kipper Man massacre. Everybody Todd wish steps find his gambling story there is. That's awesome. That is you won't You won't. I bet a lot

of college football back then. You won't convince me that CE team wasn't shaving points. Oh interesting, Well, there were a couple of just absolutely bananas losses that they had that season, you know, because they actually lost that game. Yeah,

they lost out right. They had spread was that ten ten and halfish Cody Kessler was the quarterback, and um, you know what, it makes sense kind of what you're saying, because they they had the game totally in hand and then somehow, you know, it could have been that they were shaving points and then it got out of control because they you know, that was crazy that makes your

story even better. The next week was the same sort of thing with they went at Arizona maybe uh, and it was the same sort of you know, mind melting how do they not cover kind of deal? Uh? Glad us a game and at halftime I remember it each time. That's awesome that that makes your story even better because

there's a point shaving layer to it. Well, you know, it's funny that you say that, Drew, because I think with it, with the legalized sports gambling and everything, there's gonna be more and more hijinks, especially in college sports

than ever before. Now. I know people, oh, Todd do be a conspiracy theories, But I sat with a NFL player in a sport book, a recent NFL player I'm not gonna say who it is, who was betting his ass off and telling me, oh, yeah, all the guys are betting when you were on a numbers game two three weeks ago. This is what I was talking about, right, Like, could it be that the thing that we didn't anticipate? Right, everybody everybody who's not a gamblers or all the kids

are gonna be oh, they're gonna be compromise. It's not the kids it's the fact that you know what used to be a cute thing where Bill Snyder only knew about it, right, and Bill Snyder would for the boosters, that Kansas State would whatever the spread. Now that the unforeseen consequence, or at least I didn't foresee it, right, and I think most didn't. We had our, we had our we're on the wrong scent the sentence that now all these coaches are more aware of the point spread.

And so, like you said when we were talking about it, You're like, it makes sense that they would actually want to please their alumni. By the way, every college football person that I had on the show, whether it's Adam Kramer or Chris Felika, whoever, they all agree with it except want Pete Feutack still protecting the shield. But everybody else thinks it's very reasonable, very But not only that these guys are all betting on the games even and

that's like, whoko crazy. And this guy was telling me in college, I said, well, what about in college? He went to a Division one program, Uh, you know, pretty big name, and he goes, oh, yeah, we were all bet in college. I'm like, were they betting against their own team? It was no no, I don't think anybody did that, but they were all betting the games, and so what's to stop one of these college kids from

getting in trouble and then starting to throw games. It happened in the past before there was all this crazy gambling going on, So it's probably gonna happen even more often now, and we're gonna see some crazy nonsense. I will say though, that like as we transition to a more illegalized market place and there's transparency between the you know, the programs and the you know n C double A in this case, and and the bookmakers, identifying unusual betting

behavior becomes extremely easy. It comes like can't miss it, Like I've seen some I've seen some accounts that you know, they're they're playing you know, just donkey stuff on NonStop, and then all of a sudden, like uh, you know, corner kicks in Second League Mexico come through and you're like, okay, this is this is not legit, Like this is very very clearly like something is up. You know, like like right,

you're right, it's easy to find. You know. What you're saying is a great point that it's going to be easier to find the the Shenanigans. Right, but still, these guys shouldn't betting on the games. I mean that's just craziness. Yeah, yeah, I mean that's how yeah they I completely agree with you, and I think almost all athletes the competitive nature of just being an athlete at the highest level, you end up getting into gambling one way or the other, presumably

not on your sport, not on your team. Um. I know a lot of professional athletes are very heavy duty sports bettors. This isn't you know, this is a breaking news. But the but like, you know, what's going on in tennis with the Tennis Integrity Unit and like the fact that they're you know, putting up walls between you know,

the regulator is in the books is stupid. Like they literally need to be going to those people to find unusual betting patterns on some of these challengers, you know challenger uh, you know, small stuff, double stuff like that if if you're if you have an account that's that's losing, losing, losing on you know, recreational stuff. And then all of a sudden, some hot sides are coming in on like

you know GUIDs. You know, this doubles team is going to drop the fifth set in the second you know, this the fifth game in the second set, Like that's not you know, that's not educated guesswork, Like that's obviously uh, you know, professional fixed action. And they're like, yeah, there was that one ladies match recently you see, like the double faults that were so bloyant, Like yeah, totally. Jimmy mcarroll has been saying this for years, right, Jimmy McCarroll

is like, we're the good guys. We're the guys that can point this stuff out quicker than anybody. Yeah, offering offering the action doesn't entice the betting, and doing it in the in the light of day, uh, makes it that much easier to identify the the suspect stuff in

my opinion. Um, and yeah, I mean if if you had had legal bookmaking, legal game, you know, legal gaming in the United States and New Jersey and the Tim donaghi era and the NBA, like they would have been onto that stuff like that, Like it wouldn't they were onto the Arizona State remember the Arizona States Handle when all the kids came up from Arizona State to bed in the game and it came in a half time that was loose lips as opposed to they actually had

information from some bookmakers because there's no there's a firewall. But you know there there's always been a firewall between the game. You know the game, you know, the bookmakers and the and the authorities, at least in the United States until you know, a couple of years ago. Yeah, the Arizona State was somebody get who was getting too bragged docious about it. What was that guy's name, not Smush, but he had some funny name Smith Headache. Smith was

the headache. And then there was a Jewish kid who was like, Benny, you gotta do that? Why you gotta go what do you gotta go that? Are you gonna point that out? Because it's not my group. I'm gonna renounce Jews were different. I'm just kidding, um so so in a bowl on that though. I don't by the way, I don't think the ship. I actually don't think that the point him, I don't believe in the that that will become rampant because for all the reasons true statement.

I do think the college football coaches, when a game is already decided, right, it's already there's the game win, loss, is already decided, and it just becomes down to a matter of the spread going either way. I do think those shenanigans will increase rapidly. I mean, it's but it's it is. There's if you're not doing that as a college coach, you're doing yourself and your program. Guess what like ESPN now there you know it's it's it's broadly

painted across the board. Now everyone knows what you should win by, and if you don't win by that much, then you're gonna get downgraded in the you know, in the models and the voting and all that stuff on top of the teachers aren't in fact, you wonder you should be able to see if the bigger favorites are covering at a slightly higher rate now than they used to because of exactly what you're saying that we should see that in the numbers. In fact, you don't go

ahead to you, I'm sorry, no, I let me. I'll think through my point. But yeah, what have you noticing that I have? I mean, I haven't noticed that. I'm just saying over a long period of time, if let's say you looked at all twenty five point favorites and above in the past they covered a certain percentage rate. Now, if we see what Gill is saying, which I agree with him a thousand percent, if we say what gill is saying is correct, we should see a higher percentage

of those teams covering. No, totally totally anecdotal, but I believe outside of conference play, uh, the top tier programs they cover right for the double digit spreads is up in the kind of you know, the last probably probably five ten years in fact. The other sort of you know, kin to this is you wonder and we we may never find out about this, but you wonder if at some point in the future some coach who has a pretty decent win loss record ends up getting fired because

he's not meeting the expectation of the spread. Serious Yeah, yeah, I mean not saying that that was that right, but I'm just saying we'll never find out about that. But you've gotta figure with all those schools, a hundred thirty d one schools, at some point somebody is going to get fired for yeah, you were good, but you weren't that good, you know what I mean? Well, the truth is that's what they should be judged by. They should be judged there is a school of thought that says

you should be judgment by that. That's right, gentlemen, we should go. I appreciate it. Todd wished from his mom's cork attic at Pittsburgh, PA. And Drew, thank you so much. Man. We'll do it again this year. If you're willing to do another megapod later this year, we'll have you back, um because we so appreciate you being on here and all the numbers, game appearances, Man, Deep Dive podcasts, Bet the Edge podcast, So Deep Dives with Andy Molitor, Bet

the Edges with Sarah Perlman. We're all podcasts are available well Underscore Capital I leave anything. I'm sorry at t Wishnev. I'm so sorry at t Wishnev. You're right, that is a oversight on my part. Where you can watch wonderful tennis braggadocious videos from Todd beating on his barn storming tour, beating all kinds of opponents, Drew, did I leave out anything? What else are you involved? Oh? You got it man. That's although we uh were doing some new stuff on Peacock.

We were doing a weekly weekly show now me and me and Sarah and uh we added Warren sharp to the next, Uh to talk a little NFL. Every week they put that on. It's on Friday nights and then it re airs on Saturdays and Sundays before the game. Uh do about It's about an hour long. We break down the best of and uh yeah, it should be should be pretty cool to see that grol what's the name of that blitzing the board, blitzing the board, another bt B blitzing the board, Drew did, Yeah, that's good.

Yeah right, Yeah, that has a nice spring to it. Yeah, I Drew, I'll be pulling for cold plus three and a half pick to see gilly Ice go down hard there. You see see what it's just that. We'll lend it on that for Todd, God wished that for Judd. Say it everybody, Thanks for listening to the megapod. Good luck with all your best this weekend. Yeah,