Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 13 Preview

at Visan Michael Palmiery. Good morning to you, like Palmiery runs the Dairy Queen and Nagara does. He's one of he's one of the visas. Uh, very loyal subscribers like Palmier. Yeah, yeah, that's why I went Palmier instead of Palmetto like good good, good morning. Yeah, we have time for this. And that's Todd wishing of everybody from his mom's core cadeck And we're told that his mom is not home and she

didn't put anybody else in charge of the house. This is said he said I could do whatever I want. Did she did? She did? She put a hold on the Pittsburgh Gazette. Uh, posts that we don't get that. Sorry, she hold this is great. God wish that everybody. Dad. Are you doing, man, killy? Why didn't you tell everybody why we're gonna have to go fast because of your beautiful Well, so here's what I did. I'm not a

bright individual case you were wondering. So I'm always dealing with time zones, and i have seventy five shows I do a week, and I sleep when I'm not doing a show, so I'm a little scattered. So I told Bob because he's in the Mountain time zone. But instead of just writing, hey, ten thirty like a jackass, I wrote ten thirty Pacific because I shut my brain off, so he thought it was an hour from now, and so now he's trying to figure out the skype and

so it's all my fault. Are you happy? You might have too many irons in the fire, maybe maybe a few, But that explained to them that we're gonna have to run through quickly because we spent half an hour trying to fix the text. We're not gonna run through quickly. We're gonna do our normal survivor thing. When Bob joins us, he joins is if he joins it so we'll start with the whole show faster, because let's listen. I'll give my picks and leave, and then you guys can't continue on. UM,

I don't think it'll be that. I don't think it'll be much faster. And maybe maybe if you let us start. I like to get I like to listen to the beginning of odds on It's Kine of the greatest shows on radio. I don't want to miss that second best PM show, Mike. Let me just say this, Mike Palm takes takes some Twitter pulse. Seriously, doesn't he could have been the first four time MITCHI win before MITCHI. Alright, so Circus Survivor is phenomenal. Twenty eight entries left out

of four thousand and eight twenty six different people. Best we can tell with twenty eight different entries, two people have to under seventy. Couple weeks ago, we all took me under at the end. Um, But okay, you weren't one. I did no listen to the video. Alright, great, I will check the tap thousand dollars plus intrinsic value of the remaining twenty eight entries. This is phenomenal. Phenomenal, here's what's interesting, and you've broken it down better than I

ever could on your show. But let's get into this week. Like this week, who are the big favorites? Were the biggest favorites the Rams? Nobody hasn't left, Nobody the person the two people who had Seattle who took Seattle this last week with the last two people who had the RAMS, now one of whom had New England didn't choose them. Another another big favorite, Indianapolis. Only one left and remember they're a Christmas game. That person has to take Indianapolis

this week. I think I think so as well. Yeah, um eight with Ksey, seven with Tampa Bay. Remember they factor into bonus. If I don't think you can consider, do you consider the bonus at this point? I couldn't, and I think you're crazy if you do. But you know, one of the two people with the two entries has Kansas City available, one in Tampa Bay and the other, so they're the real test. Will they do that or they go to Philadelphia on both which could be the

neutron bomb this week. It could be Remember Philly was the biggest knockoff punch against the Giants, and Todd was right about that he called that game correctly. Um, I think people will use ten with Minnesota there at Detroit. Detroit's played like every other game horrifically and they're due for this one. Yeah. Arizona seventeen people have them there an eight point favorite at the Bears, but they're there against the Colts on Christmas. There's uh, there's one entry

that has there's one person that has two entries. He has both San Francisco and Tennessee. If he gets to Christmas, does he do the double option to survive at that point? I think you have to. But are we even getting there? Todd, here's a question for you, yes or no? Will there be someone go twenty and oh, yes or no? I would probably go with no. Yeah. I don't think they're still too far away. This one, This one is so

much different than last year. Last year when there was plus and I got to December last year and I lost with a seventeen point favorite Rams at home against the Jets. That literally the next Raiders true that literally I would have the next three weeks I would have won too. So it was literally the only one I ended up losing this year. I would have I lost on Buffalo and Jacksonville. I'd have lost three times since then, right, Like, this is the fact that these are still alive, these

twenty six people is incredible. And one of them is is your friend Joe Peter. That's correct, Joe Peter is one of them. Yes, And I would imagine and crack and I got into this a little bit on the numbers game. Do these folks start hedging away? Is it too long of a runway still to hedge away? Did you listen to Derek at all at Nightcap about chopping

and how the chopp is impossible? Oh? So this is I'm glad we brought this up because what you said the other week might have confused summarized what he said. So let's first get what I said that if people wanted to share information, they could let Jeff Benson know that. Yes, which is a little different than what Joe said, Jeff Benson reach out and give a proposition to everyone. Did

you say that reach out? He did to have Jeff Benson queried the remaining entries if they were interested in doing this job, not give him the other thirty nine people's information, which is different. Right, But Derek then said to me, it can't happen. And here's why, because well, one, we're going to pay out however, like a poker tournament, and then your deal is your deal. But here's the other thing. Everybody lives in different states with different taxes,

and then the gift tax is the big thing. You know that if I give you more than fifteen thousand dollars in a given year, the giver gets taxed. Think about that. So if one guy would have won it and said I'm gonna give everybody else one point five million, let's just say they want to do it a forty weight chop, the guy gets six six million, and then he's gonna get taxed on five point eight million. I mean,

so that right you guys. By the way, as long as there's two people that have two entries, there's not gonna be a chop anyway. But I do think that what you said the other week on the megapod could have been misconstruction. I think so too. Maybe I wasn't clear, but and I think everybody's fine with what you're saying now. I think I don't think anybody doesn't understand that. By the way, the Great Dr Bob is here, is that right, Bob stole. Are you there, Yeah, I'm here finally, Bob.

I apologize for my time zone deficiencies, my fault for writing the word pacific. My brain was shut off. We're happy to have you. Oh I'm frustrated as hell, Gil, but I'm gonna I'm gonna handicap angry now maybe that hey, angry handicapping coming. We're just finishing our Survivor discussion. So there's twenty By by the way, Bob, there's twenty eight entries left in Circus six million dollar um and Survivor. That what started with four thousand eighty entries, twenty eight left. Wow.

And last year we started with thirteen nine and ended with thirty five. Made it all the way thirty five. I was wondered how much there's an extra week and then there's the extra Christmas. Obviously, this year we have twenty eight now with four thousand eighty as a start, gonna be awesome and Circu million um there's the leader is one in four and still has a game and a half lead because the consensus was one in four. And if you think the Vikings, they were the sixth

most popular pick. The top six picks were one in five I know somebody went two and three. It is like I picked up a game. Yeah for forty three and seventeen week? What are you? What is your record? Todd? I believe I'm thirty three and seven. Forty three and seventeen leads it. There's two people at forty one, eighteen and one, and then another ten people at um forty one and nineteen, and then at the bottom it's like nineteen and forty one is the lowest score so far

for the Booby Prize for the year. There's so this is the final week of quarter three. There's one player fourteen in one and there's twelve players I believe twelve or fourteen that are thirteen and two and on the bottom and it's it's the mirror. There's one player one in fourteen and twelve or four whatever that number is, that are two in thirteen. Yeah, I might know that person to really um, okay, bomb, are you did you do any Survivor your loser pools or what did you

do this year? But you know, um, I started doing Survivor about eight years ago and the pool had about three hundred people and at the time I won the first year, I don't know he's a cake. Two years later, I won again, which is almost impossible, and the pool was like three hundred and fifty people then, and then I've been hitting a dry spell ever since. Normally I get to about week fourteen or fifteen. I have two

entries this week. I craped out early. But I have a friend that's in and he's he seeks my advice. And he was going between Dallas and Baltimore last week, and our angle was, don't do Dallas just for game theory purposes, because every a lot of people are on Dallas. So he said, let's do Baltimore. And so I'm like, thank god Dallas lost, because if Dallas, little one in Baltimore were lost. After giving him that advice, I had owed him a lot. But he's still alive and seeking

my advice again this week, so we'll see. I might give it. I might we We're looking at Minnesota as a possibility for him, but I've been out long time. This year, I did a whole thing on a numbers game. They got a got I guess like seven thousand view is about how I did a thought exercise with Jeff Parl's my producer, and I was like a hundred thirty

three people took Dallas, and Jeff had said it. Jeff was on record to saying I hate the Raiders today, and I said, if if you knew a hundred thirty three, we're gonna take Dallas. By the way, the point of that was, you could estimate that about eighty would even before the numbers came out that it was a d He said, no, I still wouldn't take the Raiders. And I'm like, this is the problem with people playing Survivor. They don't get the game theory. There was eighty two

that could have taken Dallas, add and you could estimate it. Yeah, alright, Uh, we are on a on a shorter time because of my error, and Mike's got odds on to do with them all, show them all. Will hopefully be the guest next week on our regular weekly guest Frank Schwab from me who sports, is actually gonna be in studio because

he's in Vegas. So we're sweetig show today. All right, Uh, you know I'm gonna I'm gonna take my normal a lot amount of time to do my full detailed analysis, so just to warn us, Okay, okay, well let's start real quick Todd with how we did last week. Everybody went two in one. Uh so the standings stayed the same. As far as games back, really half a game back from myth Mike is at seventeen and nineteen, Mike's at seventeen eighteen and one, and I am just a game

and a half back at sixteen and twenty. On the teaser side, there were two losers. Those two people are sitting in far Canada. Gillen might hear their names. They both thought Dallas was gonna win with the teaser, and I survived with the teaser of the Pats in Miami. You guys still don't believe in the Pats. I have forty one to one to win the Super Bowl. Thirty one to win the Super Bowl really tells me who

have they beaten? They've beaten the teams that have been placed in front of them, So be careful for Bill Belichick has it bold combined record of New England's beating opponents thirty eight and fifty three. For those of you score Buffaloff combined record of those teams they've beaten thirty one and forty seven. Oh yeah, I didn't hear you. The experiment about Buffalo's thinking, well, I don't know, I don't have. My only two futures are on the Titans

and on the Colts. Those are my only two futures. But you do agree that pages are going to be in the playoffs, and if anything, it's going to be they'll be in the playoffs. They'll play in the playoffs. Absolutely, this will be a great This will be a very interesting Monday night game where I think they have the advantage, but we'll get into that any Thursday night thoughts. Cowboys

and Saints. We learned this morning officially Alvin Kamara is out for the Saints, as are there two linemen Um Armstead and Rama check is out, so they are depleted. I think we're getting a Taysom Hill start today. Amari Cooper is with the Cowboys off the COVID list. Bob Any play on this game. I got in on the Cowboys last night. Minus five. It's six everywhere, at least six and a half now, II lean with Eileen with

Dallas now after the injury adjustments. Um, the injury adjustments ended up being close to about a point and a half. Pretty big adjust and I think the true line should be Dallas by eight or so. So I think it's a pretty good guy on Dallas. But I didn't bet it. Didn't bet it though, you guys, I'm gonna tease him once again. I'm gonna tease Dallas. Um, just like last week. You know I can't blame Meg returns to its vomit, the pick returns to the buyer, and the burnt fools

bandaged finger goes wobbling back to the fire. Wow, what has happened? I'm a little che I love kipling, your great imterialist. My mom used to say, Rue, That's why I never miss a minute of odds on daily kind of thing, Todd. Any thoughts on tonight's game? I I hate this game. I'll be betting in any game as usual. I just don't like it and I hate this game. Yeah, I'm on the Cowboys again. Minus five got that last night before the move here. Hopefully that works out all right,

So let us begin with best bets, Bob. We start with you your first for week thirteam, sir. I not that I don't believe in New England. I just like Buffalo here. My numbers like Buffalo, even if even if you use New England improved defense since they've switched the zone more zone than man demn six games ago and they've won all six. Um. Uh, they've been a little fortunate. UM. In this one against the Chargers, they were out gained by one point seven yards for play and won that one.

In Week nine, they only had two hundred and seventy three total yards and got ten of their points on Sam Donald's interceptions. That would have been a closer game. Uh. They caught the Falcons on a short week Thursday night game with a rookie head coach had never prepared for a Thursday game, and the Falcons were out without their three three of the top four receivers, and then they

beat the crap out of them. So I say there's been a little bit of like the last week Titans were out, didn't have Henry in their top two receivers, so they did played better than they should have even after adjusting for all that stuff. But now they take on Buffalo. Buffalo, they didn't have Tremaine Edmunds last week the linebacker, and they gave up a lot of running yards as against Indianapolis. They gave up two undred sixty four yards Indianapolis. But when Edmunds has been in the game.

He's got a really high stop right over ten percent when he's played this year. Buffalo is only allowing three point six yards per carry. But I think they'll be able to stop what New England likes to do, which is run the ball and play ball control. There's gonna be high winds Monday night in Buffalo. I trust Josh Allen's arm over mac Jones's arm um, but I think it's a tough match of for New England's offense. There's one thing I like here in general, this is something

you should listen to. Uh, high scoring teams are relatively better at home, and good defenses are also relatively better at home. When a tea maveraging twenty four points or more is at home from game seven on, so they've established that they're a good offensive team and they're facing a team that's a lot of less than eight team points per game through seven through six games or more. There's been four over four hundred such games like that.

And you know, going back in my database of the time the high scoring home team covers the spread against the good defensive team at home. Now, if the line is less than minus fourts, you're talking about a competitive game. It's one thirty three and seventy seven against the spread, So there's some technical stuff that favors a good home, a good a good offensive team at home against a good defensive team. And my ratings like Buffler, I think go On should be at least four points, So I'm

going with the Bills. Todder Yapo. Is that one of your picks on New England? No? No, I actually, if if any if I had to bet this game, I would take Buffalo too. I think, you know, I agree with everything that Dr Bob said. I also think that how many weeks in a row in the NFL you just continued to put a game after game after game after game with no mistakes, no problems. It's sooner or later you know something happened. So I certainly don't want any part of this game, and if I did, I

would take Muffler. What's interesting is that, is that, Bob, that you went with the high winds is most people, when they say, oh, it's gonna be twenty three miles per hour wins, they would then the next thing they would say, is, oh, well, New England's running game is better than that of Buffalo, so that would swing them towards New England. But you're not saying that, oh, because Buffalo can stop the run open New England. But would

you rather have in the game like that? Would you rather have josh Alan crambling around and getting yards with his feet? Yeah? Alright, no makes sense. Yeah, Mikey, give me the Raiders two and alf short week for Washington, travel across the country, no kicker. Raiders get the extra rest off playing off Thanksgiving, and and look, Washington goes, Washington goes, Cowboys, Eagles, Cowboys Eggles, Giants. Everything else is

in their division. It's still in front of them. If they lose this game, I'll later two and a half. The only thing with this is the you're saying you need a kicker. Is that what you're saying could be affective. The only thing with this is Waller hasn't been limited in practice and DeShawn Jackson has not been in Pride or the other way around. Waller has not been in and DeShawn has been limited. So you do have to

worry about that. And that's the problem with a lot of these games, like you can't do anything right until right before kickoff. Bills in New England, I probably in the I like Buffalo early that I like New England and now I probably won't even play it. And the Raiders have gone at least three weeks without a disaster happening. I mean usually they every one week there's a disaster. To number one. My number one pick is I'm going back to the well where I always go when I

really need to pick. That is the Jacksonville Jaguars under the forty A. Why why do you have to shake your head? What's wrong with that? Why? Because it one last week? This is your Tampa Bay over for this year. Sometimes you have to just you know, key in on something. The Jaguars, I believe, are like I think they've only

gone over two times a year. And the reason is is it's a really difficult uh statistical analysis in teams where NFL games play the game and do not score points, they don't go over and guess what, they don't score point. So just look at what happened every week. It's very difficult to go over if you can't score the ball. And against the Rams on the road. Dr Bob just gave me a great thing where he said that great

defensive teams are even better at home. So the Rams are probably the only way this game goes over, because if it's like Houston game when Rams were up thirty eight and nothing that decided to quit playing and gave him a bunch of back. The only way this goes over this game is going under the forty game the Jacks score, they get seven or ten, you're still gonna

make it because the ramball Dogs. And just to clarify, Buffalo is two and a half and the Raiders or two and a half, and the previous two games that we just talked about. Okay, my first listen, there's there's not a lot of thought to this, but I'm just gonna give you my guessing lines reaction to the Minnesota Vikings Detroit Lions line. I don't understand why this is seven. If it's because it's Dalvin cook out and Alexander Madison in, that shouldn't be a reason for it to stay at seven.

The Lions are not a good football team. There's no DeAndre Swift now, who is a major portion of the offense of any semblance of offense that they did have. The Vikings have lost a total all all six of their games by a total of twenty six points. I know they were in a dog fight with Detroit the first time around, where it took a kirk Cousin's miracle to win this I don't see that happening here. I think this is the game where the Vikings take out all of their frustrations and I will lay the seven

on the road. Okay, so you're going with Mikey's man crush the kirk Cousins led Minnesota. But Mike you how did you feel about kirk Cousins lining up behind a guy who didn't have the ball to snap to him in a big spot the first thing once the receiver being not a position confused him. Yes, if he wouldn't have had to move the receiver to the other side of the field, he would have known where the center was do So it's not it's comparative negligence. Troy Aikman

did that once upon a time. As I recalled Bob number two again, San Francis go on month on Sunday Night, Well fco. San Francisco's won three games in a row. I had them as the best bet last week against Minnesota. But Dieba Samuel being out is a big deal and I don't think it's being fully factored in Samuel's averaging eleven points seven yards per target. The rest of the board Niners receivers are all sub average, averaging six point

seven point six art per target. As a group, the difference is about two points per game just in the receiving part, and at another half point for Samuel's running. That's about a two and a half point adjustment for for Samuel, He's such a big part of what that offense does, and without him, I think Garoppolo is gonna struggle. Uh. Niners have a good ground game, but Seattle's got a good run defense. I think the Niners offense will struggle here.

Now the big question is Russell Wilson. Has been a lot of talk about his finger not being quite right. I think they did bring him back a week early. In the first game against Green Bay. When he first came back, the only average three point one yards per pass play. The next week he was better at average six point o yards per pass playing week eleven, last week average seven point one yards per pass play. The fingers getting better. I still docked them a little bit

because you know, I want to see it first. But the last couple of games have been right around his his season average, and as far as yards per pass play go, the big problem with Seattle this year is that they're not converting on third downs, which is something a little bit rare for for Wilson. He's only completed thirty eight percent of his passes on third down this year. That would be the worst of any qualified quarterback since

Mark Drew Nell in two thousand four. Now Wilson Wilson's career completion percentage on third down, So there's a lot of randomness and that he's only completed thirty eight percent of his third downs this year, and I think that's that's that's got to be mostly random, and I don't think that's going to continue. On the yards per play basis, Seattle is a little bit better than average, but they're they're bad because they're not completing third downs like they should.

I think that will improve and they you know, they also had without Russell Wilson for three games, then he played with a bad finger against Green Bay. But I think they're an average team here. And when the Niners without Samuel and without Warner, who was a good a good coverage linebacker and he's he's got some value without those guys. I think the Niners are around an average team.

I think that Seattle should be favored here. Now you've got Pete Carroll coming off three straight losses, off two straight losses, he's sixteen, three and one against the spread. Last week obviously was one of those losses. But he's three and one against the spread off consecutive losses this year three and oh off three or more consecutive losses. Covering those games might average of fifteen points. I just think Seattle is so undervalued right now for various reasons.

But the Niners I think a little overrated now because they've won three in a row, but they're not taking full into account Samuel being out. So I I think Seattle should be favored here by at least the home port, at least the home field advantage. So Salt play on Seattle. Bob, you you may have taken me off two games now because I I liked New England and I liked San Francisco in this but the DEEPO Samuel point is a great one. I even said like there was a Bizarro m v P like literal m v P. Cor Daryl

Patterson for the Falcons and Deebo Samuel for the Niners. Like, what are those teams without those two guys. It's just because the difference between who's replacing them is so huge. D Is this three or three and a half? Officially three and a half for for Dr Ball alright, Mikey two. Yeah, I'm gonna agree um with Dr Bob's pick on Buffalo. Okay, I agree. I'd rather have Josh Allen. Are you taking

it though, Yeah, I'm that's my second pick. Look, he's right to this effect of Josh Allen's ability with his legs is probably going to be the difference here. Also in wind, he played in more wind conditions. He's used to Orchard Park, played at Wyoming. Mac Jones is a Jacksonville, Florida kid that played at Alabama. Right, and he's gotten a little bit of New England. They really haven't had bad weather in New England so far in the games

that he's played at this time of the year. Agree with Bob Buffalo minus to an aunt Dot number two, dott I'm gonna do something I swore I wouldn't never do it again and bet on Pat Ryan Unfortunately, Uh, you guys, Uh, he's getting eleven points. I can't stand him. I hate him with a with a fiery hot passion. But here's the thing. The last time they played, it was a three point game until two. Pick six is at the end, and the Buccaneers aren't exactly you know,

world beaters. I mean, yes, they've blown out some teams like the Bears, the Giants, but there've been other games that they look very pedestrian. They've bought a lot of injuries. And I get Atlanta plus eleven at home last year. Even there was a game late the season where Atlanta was hit by seventeen points and blew the game to Tampa Bay. So their divisional game. They know who this team is. They've hung around with them before. I'm gonna hold my nose and Mattie Ice, I can't believe I'm

doing it. It's almost as bad as as betting on Philip Rivers. But I'm gonna bed on. Mattie Ice must still love and I hate to do it. Todd, you may hate this more, but I'm with you. Of the big of the big favorites, I've said all week, I go, there's two that I love. It's Minnesota in Indianapolis. But I actually have the audacity to think that Atlanta might take Tampa Bay down to the wire. So I'm not gonna add anything and the interest of time, but I'm

on Atlanta. Been talking about on the numbers game this week. I'm on Atlanta as well as my number two. Bob your third. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Indianapolis here. You just mentioned that I use them in a teaser that earlier than the week when the line is eight and a half, I could tease them down to below three. It's up to ten now. Well, I just think they crush Houston. I mean, the Colts maps up well are they have eight point one yards per play against Houston's

defense in Week six. Uh Texans are last in the league in yards per tempt allowed on deep passes and Carson Wentz is in the top ten in past attempts of twenty yards more are yards are more so they like to throw it deep. Houston can't stop that. Also, Houston's often They've got really gunshots Tyrod Taylor and three inter steptions against the Dolphins a few weeks ago, and since then they've been really trying to run the ball a lot more more than fifty percent of the time.

But they can't run the ball. They ever done like three point two yards per run, so they've gotten a really gun shy and now they're going through their weakness, which is running the ball. So I just think they're completely messed up on offense. Hoults should take advantage of the defense. And I favor the Cults by fourteen in my ratings. So, uh, Colts, mine is ten now, unfortunately, but you used them earlier in the parlay. But mineus ten is good. Let me let me just step in.

That is my number three as well. I have the Colts earlier in the week in a teaser which we'll talk about later. Um, but the Colts, to me again from guessing lines, Colts and Vikings were the ones of the of the big favorites. I'm like, that's not big enough, and so the Colts are my number three as well. I bet the Colts this week forty to one to win the Super Bowl because I think that's the best bet on the board. I'm not saying they're gonna win it,

but I love that number. I think it's a sneaky, great football team that by the way, have you have you watched have you watched the in season hard Knocks. By the way, I don't usually talk about this, but I talked about the numbers. I haven't talked about megapod because I usually like numbers more than anything. But if you watch the in season Colts Hard Knocks, and if you've watched enough football in your lifetime, there are characteristics of this football team where when you watch it, you

become a super impressed with that organization. With Frank Reich just gonna finish the thought, they have a continuity that football team. They hang out with each other that if you watch, if you if you remember great Redskins teams in the past, great Watchington football teams in the past, that was what they won Super Bowls doing it sounds like a quaint bullshit notion, but there are things about their elements of this football team where you immediately recognize.

You're like, oh, there are a lot more there. There are a lot more intact than some of these other teams that make stupid decisions in game in type ball games, the Colts will never do that. They've got super there. Their best players on offensive events, Jonathan Taylor, Darius Leonard are super intelligent guys. Also, um I love the Colts long term. I love him in this game. Is Carson Wentz, Doug William or Mark Riffin? He would be neither. He's the guy you worry about making a horrible mistake in

the middle of a playoff. Yeah, but you know what, he has mastered the long past. Go for the passengerference. Yes, he had number three. Mikey. Could I ask Dr Bob a question or two? I was just time to time Dr Bob when you do these situational cover percentages, like what you said in the in the game with the team's high scoring against decent defense, how many games or when the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter a ligned? What percentage are you looking for that triggers

a bet? Is a fifty fifties? Have you quoted like fifty nine on the first one? Nothing? Nothing? No situations trigger a beta. The situation might eat me off of something that my math model likes, or might make me lower the rating on something my math model likes to make it a lesser bet. But I never bet a game based on a situation. And then my second question

is based off them based on the t score. My second question on my second question is based on your your college wind total over unders that you did this year. But but but the fact like they had already won half of them by week five, What was your key to being so successful with those this year? Bob? If

you could sho funny is you know? I was doing these things and normally I get like five to seven of these that qualify, and I need historically a need a one point to wind differential between my predicted winds and the odds adjusted market, and this year I had twenty four of them. They it went, I'm like, well, that's that's maybe it's the maybe it's the year before, um, you know that the COVID year, and there were a lot of nonconference games, and maybe my maybe my algorithms

might not are a little off. And so I got really conservative and I only released the eleven they were the four were twenty three and one. Oh my god. And I'm like, but but I had every reason to doubt that, you know, because normally have like I said, five to seven that qualified, and I have twenty four the qualified. I mean, what the hell is going on here? But as it turns out, my my futures were better than they've ever been. I started this season off gang Bus.

I think I was fourteen and one to start the season. How my college plays and then and all the wind totals one. So but I still had reason to doubt it. But I forget what your questions, but I think that success had to do with my algorithms are just we're just better at adjusting for last year's odd season. Thank you for bringing that up. Well, I followed. I followed a film because he went threw him on the numbers game, and then it was remarkable. They didn't just they didn't

just win, they crushed. They crushed by the either under the total or over total by two or three games, uh or what you want? My third pick, I'll go back to the well, like Todd says, look at I think this Miami Dolphins team is better than we get. Give him credit for no, because because the Giants, I mean, yeah, they'd be Philadelphia, but are they gonna have a plus four turnover margin against Miami? This Miami defense is good.

Flora's didn't become a bad coach the first eight weeks of the year, right, and you've got a little continuity now with two So yeah, I'm gonna lay the four here, go ahead, Todd. If that's your pick, tis going from one to seven to five. And it was gonna be my pick, but now I don't know if I want to do it. And Miami has two games in front of them, they could get the seven and seven very easily. Oh by the way, Gilly, somebody just walked in. It's

um Dennis Green. Do you remember Dennis Green, the coach of the Minnesota Vikings. We are who they thought they Well, Dennis Green are who we thought him. Billion Dennis. This is people don't know this. Billion Dennis were long lost twins raised by different parents, and Billy was raised here in Pittsburgh. And he just walked in and he just told me the Petsburg Stillars are who we thought they were. At the end, stilled my whole routine here that I

worked up for YenS. But I'm telling you the strollers think about it's our great organization that taught us the five thought we're just good depart stores at Todd Todd. Because you went crazy, we lost your audio. So you're on, You're on Baltimore. In other words, No, I'm not even on the game. I just wanted to tell you about Billy Creek. Okay, what's your pick, Todd? Todd, I have five minutes. Let's don't get don't get sauceme. My pick

was gonna be My pick was gonna be Miami. But I'm not gonna do it because I need to bake some brown up against uh Mr Michael Palm. So I'm gonna go to the one that I was gonna go before that, and that is going to be the under Arizona Cartet game. Going to be my nick? It was not? It was I gave it out on odd Time yesterday. Was it really that? The under forty under forty four, I believe is the bailing number under forty four in the Bears against Arizona. And the reason I like this

is because Arizona is really good. I just I just don't see the Bears with their struggle on offense, regardless of who plays quarterback, I'd rather see fields. But even if even if it's Andy Dalton, I don't see them scoring a lot of points against Arizona. Uh. Kyler Murray also questionable. Who knows what they're gonna be, whether they're gonna want to really roll out the offensive had Carpet, I doubt it. So I just like to see the

you know, service game planned by Arizona. So like how they want against Seattle on the road, low scoring game under forty bears Arizona. All right, there you go. What's the number again? Under what? Okay? Teaser of the week two legs? Six point teaser? You have to give your third? You have to give your third? No, I did it? Was Indianapolis already? Oh Indies your third? Okay in minus have Indie minus ten. Dr Bob at Dr Bob Sports, Dr Bob Sports on Twitter at dr bob sports dot com,

pioneer and using predictive modeling to predict NFL and other sports. Um, what is your two leg teaser of the week, sir? Well, now that Indianapolis is more than eight and a half, I would go with Minnesota and Arizona. So Minnesota Vikings down to one and what was the other one? Book Arizona down to one and a half. There is an offense Todd Todd minus Vikings, Cowboys Minnesota to minus one and the Cowboys even let's hope that we can get a win from the Saints. Mine is mine was already

my account was Minnesota indian Apples. But as as Bob said, Indian Apples is no longer in teaser range here, so it's Minnesota and Washington. Okay, Minnesota and the w f T s of two eight and a half Okay. I am not gonna go with what you guys have. In fact, I don't know how anyone could bet on Kirk Cousins, but I did it last week. In the end game, I'm gonna go with Arizona down to one and a half minus wonderful, and I'm gonna go with my Pats up to eight and a half. I'm not gonna doubt.

I think that Pats may have trouble winning this game, but I also can't see them getting blown out. To give me the pat plus eight and a half was my second Yeah, I like here's better than mine now? Actually, all right? Final two questions that end every megapod, And we have a lot of choices for this one. Which

is the big favorite most likely to lose? Outright? Dallas is now a choice in this I guess Dallas tonight at New Orleans at six and a half, Minnesota seven point favorites at Detroit, Arizona seven and a half point favorites at Chicago Tampa Bay eleven point favorites at Atlanta Kansas City, nine and a half point favorites at home against Denver, Indianapolis ten point favorites on the road against Houston. My goodness, Philly seven point favorites on the road at

the Jets. Uh, please don't answer that. Everybody's gonna answer that. Rams thirteen point favorites at home against Jacksonville, which is the most likely to lose out right, Bob, I have all of them winning by seven or more, and Philly I have winning by seven. So I guess that would be my most likely to lose. Eagles for me to Toddy, Uh, yeah, I could see the Vikings lose. Oh stop it, Okay,

what are you talking about? It? All right? And then finally, if you lived in a bizarro world and you were forced to bet aside on every single game, but you were allowed one pass one game that you wanted no part of whatsoever, Bob, that game would be Chargers and Bengals. That's mine, same Charges and Bengals. For me, it's Ravens and Steelers. Oh interesting, DoD, I don't like this game, okay, Cowboys charges Bengals to me. If we asked the question

on prime time last night. If you only had one, if you only could only watch one game this weekend, what would it be? And we came up with Chargers Bengals because that's really a narrative game. If the Chargers win, that you're thinking about them changes dramatically in terms of their playoffs. Same thing for the Bengals. If the night show, I'm going to that one, you'll be there still do go ahead, Bob. The Chargers could be really good if they could stop them on a third down. I mean,

there's so much better than they played. It's ridiculous how bad they've been on these and you can't sustain they're disgusting on their disgusting Bob, we could that bad, Bob, if you will do me, if you come on the show tomorrow as you always do on Friday, I hope you will. By the way, let's make it uh eight. Let's let's make it eight thirty Mountain if we can tomorrow if I have the time zones correct, eight and

now let's make it eighty mountain. As we say, um, we have to remember I want to hear your we gotta for that audience. I want to hear the New England Buffalo thing that you were talking about earlier, that situation. Thank you, Mike, Mike Palm. Everybody's gotta go do odds

on with them all. Shaw Um, I want to We've got to rehash that and also the thing about the chargers and the third down conversions, because I think, you know it's the old Our eyes watched one game better than analytics do, but analytics watches every game, and I think those are things that are lost on better. So I think we have to bring those up for sure. Well basketball, right, yeah, I wanted to ask you a

question about ask go ahead, go ahead? Okay, So you know how in the in the first half of college basketball, game totals are always you know, four to five points less than half the total amount at this second half that we supported five point more than that half half of the amount in exact the games because they're always blowing them out. It's not gonna be usually the foused at the end of game, which is why the second half is larger. Ben getting in you to Brice stuffs.

Either is it should be less of it shouldn't be as much. It shouldn't be as much lower than half in blowout games. In tight games, they get free throws at the end. Right, it's a great But what I'm saying, even even if it's like twenty five, if the spread is twenty five and the totals won six, they still make the first half seventy six and the second half seventy seven. Yeah. I think there's a little bit of value there. I think the first half overs are good.

And I've been watching for years now. Yes, so I've just wanted to see if you notice that one of the things. Have you noticed less fouls being old in college basketball this year? Yeah? I actually I haven't noticed you. I haven't looked really looks at it too much. I'd love to know right now. Everything I'm doing is based on prior so I start to do the flending next week. Okay, keep an eye on that, because I really think you know, I'm honestly looking at first half statistics, and seems to

me that there's fous are a lot less. There's a lot less games where they're just calling tons of found Yeah, all right, Todd wouldn't be just for in the model, but I'll take a look. Todd Wishness the the most active in game college basketball? Better right now, Todd, do you stop at no, I started off slowed basketball, but the last couple of nights I've been crushing. There you go, Bob, would you say about jury? I said, remember that one year we're be turned on you in January. You still

play through, right? Oh yeah, No, I still ended up winning, but it was the slower winding for the end of the year. All right, Todd, thank you, Thank you to Mike Palm, Dr Bob, Bob stole everybody who I messed up one in terms of the time zone. So I apologize, Bob. I'm I'm sorry that it was so frustrating, but thank you as always, my friend. I appreciate it. I bought a new computer to prepare, oh man, and I didn't have time to set it up. That's what the problem is.

They didn't have time to set up the volume the microphone. Well the problem, well, we have plenty of time before tomorrow on a numbers game, so at least we have for that. We'll do it over the phone bill fast. Oh that's true. You like to to look at the notes, all right, just put my just put my pretty big talk all right, good to talk to you guys. We'll put your pretty picture up there. Indeed, Bob Stole, Todd Wishne for Mike Palm, Gil Alexander, thanks for listening in

the Megapod Week thirteeth in the National Football League. Good luck to one