Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 12 Preview

tables huge, and we have a good time here. It's perfectly built for social distancing before we knew there was going to be social exactly right, Mike Palm, by the way, the conciliary. Derek Stevens at Circuit Sports, Vice President Operations, I did a whole breakdown on your circus survival on a numbers game this morning, the whole segment of your remaining a hundred thirty four entries. We'll get into that momentarily. Todd wishing to have the other stable the show from

his mom's cork Addics somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You're doing Dodd Baby, I got it done for us and ladies and gentlemen. This is because it's Thanksgiving. We get Happy Thanksgiving everybody, by the way, Happy Thanksgiving. Because Thanksgiving a week we were not doing our normal Thursday show, so we shifted to Tuesday. UM on the heels of a Brett Musburger appearance last week. How good was that, by the way, everybody thought it was the best part of

the years best part. He was so open, he was very open. Here's what's ailing the raiders lads, you know, and he just goes off on it. It was like a fireside chat. It was. It was like y'allta, it's y'all toa conference. We had it here. Uh. So there's a there's a podcast that has done in simultaneous concurrent with ours, which is what they do over it covers. So the first time we've only had two occurrences this year where we didn't on Thursday. One was a Wednesday night.

We brought in Las Vegas Chris, who's on that podcast, and today we do it on Tuesday, so we bring in the host of that podcast. He also does the Simple Handicap on a daily basis. Adam Chernoff ladies and gentlemen wearing his Covers sweat shirt. How you doing man, I'm I'm doing well. It's kind of a tough act to follow when you stage it that way. So it's, um, it's like the it's like the five hitter behind the cleanup hitter going forth and it kind of that gap

in the line up. So I'll try ye, yeah, except the five hitter is seventy seven and thirty eight all the season. Is that true? It's it's true. It's it's as good as it gets. But it's been going well. So is that total sides and props that everything about ninety of the hundred and fifteen bets are side in totals pre game and then there's about five thirty props so far this year? Oh my god. So so let me just ask you this, first of all, do you think that this is a sustainable thing? Um? Because what

is that percentage wise? Boo? What is that? That's like close to seventy Yeah, nothing about this is sustainable. Trying not to let it fall off that badly the rest of the year, but it was, Yeah, it started off kind of a comical. Um, it's just the first four or five weeks which everything bounced right late in games and now it's just it's just trying to hang on. Really, I'd like to get a good balance every once in a while. Adam simple handicap is what you do by

yourself every day. What's the one you do it covers with Las Vegas, Chris. What's that called? It's the Covers Contest countdown. So as soon as the circle lines come out, we're reacting to them. Um from a top five consensus standpoint, we try to judge who's going to make the consensus top five that they have a circle, and then we talk a little bit about survivor as well. Listen this, Mike, you have a whole cottage industry of people like Adam and me who like do segments and podcast just based

around your contest. That's gotta make you feel good. It's good, right, I mean, that was That's what the purpose of the contest was. We don't make any money off. In fact, we lose one point nine million and guarantee this year, so you know, to create awareness about about our brand and that and so it's it's been okay, it's been okay, okay, So a hundred and thirty four entries left in Survivor out of four thousand eighty make I asked you this question back when we had people. I said, what are

the odds that no one will go twenty? And? Oh? And I think you said it's got to be at least five to one. Yes, I'm pretty sure. I don't know. I can't remember make the number now? Yes, no, stop somebody, We'll go twenty and O're not getting there. I don't think so with these two Gauntlet three three three game windows, brutal Sunday is Bruce Sunday. Sunday is really Sunday's brutality.

But here, here's the thing off your remaining one thirty four uh three people have three entries best we can tell, right, because we don't know if people use different names. Three people have three entries left, eight people have two entries? Were those lost? Y both? And so what does that mean? That means that there are that there are one hundred want to get this right? I believe one hundred and nineteen people left with entries is essentially what that comes out.

Let me make sure that that that I am not misstating that. Yes, yes, so it's one hundred and that's correct, one hundred and nineteen different. The intrinsic value of each of the remaining on four is currently forty four thousand, seven hundred and seventy six dollars. So we're talking about some serious dough here. Yeah, if you had an entry left and somebody else wanted to buy in wind to buy your entry. I had a conversation with somebody about

this the other day. It's it's not really hypothetical, but how much would you charge at this point? Right? I mean, what would the market bear for something? I mean, it depends on what teams you have left. Here was the context of which I answered it. Somebody with two said if I want to pay, if I want, somebody wants to buy for half, but they're guaranteed the second one, the last one. Uh, and there's some rules associated with

you can't split entries until Christmas. Let's say I think you, I think you it's almost you have to pay at least fifty I think I think that's right. The value bless a little, that's fair. Yeah, Um, at least that's where it starts. So the last things about this, because I'm I was just so deep dive on of the three with the three left. One has used Buffalo and Dallas, both already heading into Thanksgiving, so you figured maybe two Chicago,

one Detroit, whatever. Another trio of picks burned Buffalo still has Dallas, so you gotta figure two Dallas, maybe one Chicago. Third guy has both Buffalo and Dallas available, so maybe they pick three on three favorites. Probably the number one power ranked person is that guy or girl. But in the end, the real question, by the way of the of the people with two, only one person has used

only two people have used both Buffalo and Dallas. Anyway, there's all these different scenarios, and the question I want to ask is this, because this gets back to what I was saying last name, But is I said for all year? If you have multiple entries and you're bragging about having six after week seven, just shut up. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. There's so few people who get to Thanksgiving, it doesn't matter till right now. Until right now now it matters. But here's the real quirk.

Does your brain do this to you? Now? So all the people, that's eleven total people ended up with multiple entries, that's it, eleven ended up with multiple There were three and sixties. Some people that bought six, by the way, yes, and and eleven have two or three eleven two or three left. Those eleven people have now gotten to the promised land of where they wanted to with multiple entries. My question to Adam into both of you guys is

they've waited all season for this moment. Does their brain now screw with them and say I don't want to split entries now. I want to send them all through. I want to get them all to Christmas, and they don't do the split thing. I wonder how many of the eleven would be tempted if I had Dallas to put all three on Dallas. Even with the injuries, this Raiders team is dead. Did you watch much of that game against It look like a preseason game. I mean

it was just a listless performance. Yeah. Man, beyond the quarterback and tight end, there's nothing left. And and Darryl Waller finally showed up again in the in the box score this week. That was what Brent was saying. They had trouble once Scruden left you. Yeah, survivors awesome. It really is, though, it is. It's so much cooler than the millions because it's just so hard. But guys like Adam and Chris can beat the man. You know, regular human beings can do that. No, no, are you in?

I am? I'm right now. I'm in the money and I've been hanging on. But like it's still eight eight eight weeks to go of maintaining this pace. It really, it's just incredible Chris, and Chris is a multiple contest. When he's in the last man stand, he still did he get by this week? Chris? He was heads up right, Yeah, I think it was. It was him and another guy he's I haven't asked him yet. He's texted me he said he didn't have the best weekend. So I'm I'll

catch up with him the moment. Get the story on that. I wonder at what point he started hedging. He's so great at that too. That's his biggest survey balls is his hedging hedge ability. Did I did I steal your survivor thunder? Im? Sorry? Not at all? No, not at all, um, And every let me ask you this. If I jump in, what's the over run there after Sunday for remaining contest? Oh? I I asked this of Parlay this morning. He said

thirty seven and a half was the total. He said something like that, I make it lower than number I went under, under thirty seven and a half. I'll go over. You go over, you'll say it's I'll say it's right around half. If there is a doomsday scenario and Thanksgiving all three underdogs win out right, let's just say you might think of it. You might You'll have like three or four. You might be done this week because those three or four then have to have a winner on Sunday.

What is the what is the chop rules? Do you will you contact people with each other? Or no? If if someone of if there's four entries left and somebody's like, hey, I want to chop this, how do I get in contact? Will you facilitate it only if the person agrees to give out their information? So if I say I would like the other three, Jeff would take the other three? Do you want to share your information? Because if they don't, they're not really they don't. They don't write. And when

is the deadline for Thanksgiving? It's the it's uh three pm, the day before. I believe I might be wrong, we said at five pm Pacific this morning, we might maybe maybe I might be wrong. Let's I might hold us to that. I might look at the roomy text, Jeff, let me text. All right, we'll figure that out. Christ One is worse because it's Saturday and then Sundays another week. You know what I mean. Yeah, it's the Christmas window is unbelieving. I think you have to get him in

by um midnight. That's Saturday night going into Sunday for the Sunday following Christmas. By the way, somebody on Twitter today said, what if? What if somebody splits their entries on Thanksgiving and then the game ends up in a tie? Could you imagine losing it? I can see the Bears and Lions time and we go to over time. The water pistol is playing, so I don't think I think they're gonna sport. Todd's new hero Andy Andy Dalton is your startup. I want to tell you a little thing

heretill about last week. So I have this thing where in the NFL. You can do this in college too. It's a nice little angle. If you have a ridiculously low scoring first half a football game. For example, the Bears against the Ravens last week, six nothing at the half. The week before it was Seattle against Green game was three nothing to half, and that Seattle game for sure should have gone over at the second half. They they

got this winterception in the end zone. But I always bet the over in those games because for some reason the second half go over. Maybe the adjustments the coaches make, whatever it might be. But they made the second half. They made the line twenty five and a half in the Ravens game. That's only nineteen and a half four point in the second half of the Ravens Bears game, which even in the Bears Ravens game, it wasn't like they weren't moving the ball at all. They were moving

a little bit. So I took you over. Anyways, I had no chance at all until they brought in the beige water pistol and he hits the fourth at eleven bomb for the touchdown. And then the Ravens come down its course, And not only that, I were embarrassed plus three half I went over too. I'm telling you there's definitely an angle to be exploited there at halftime and the score is three nothing or six nothing, three three, just go over blindly any college, any pro game. It's ridiculous.

But you just said that, you just kind of intimated how blind lucky that was. Though right in that game, I'm saying even my proof is even in a game that had no business getting over, I still still went over. That's how crazy conviction is. Real time is real. Okay, whatever, you don't have to you don't have to go with me.

I'm just telling you it's it's week after week. You see it in college and pro when the score is like three nothing or three three or six nothing and they have like six points in less than the first half.

Just blindly I thought it was I thought I was so smart when the line crashed because Lamar Jackson was ruled inactive and then the line crashed in Baltimore was like a one point favorite or pick him whatever it was they had, and I took Baltimore in the first half in the full game, thinking a Keem Knicks and and Khalil Macker out of this game anyway, I love to more, and I end up winning both. And it's just such blind nonsense luck right that I win both.

So it's like the ultimate takeaway was I shouldn't have bet it at all, even though I ended up on the right side of that particular game. But I was talking to somebody who at Chicago. I was like, believe me. I wasn't right and you weren't wrong, which is how most of these NFL games end up, which is why your record at him is so unbelievable and so much of its late game bounces. Or it's just that's all

it comes down to. There's maybe a couple of percentages one way or another based on the number you get earlier in the week or how good your timing is, but the rest of there's charges. As a perfect example, the Steelers have absolutely zero point zero chance. They're the complete wrong side the entire game, and somehow they get tell me and the score Gilly. I just did it with my friend because he there is almost zero point there a percent chance that you can cover even after

the ball. But the only way it could happen is the way it happens. Yeah, and it's just that the NFL was just it despises me, despise me. But Adam, just you're being very humble. But just Todd, if you could go over our records, this will give you an idea how good seventy seven and thirty eight is, Todd, What do we do last week. Well, what since the regular season started last week, we all went to in one, so we're all two in one. No, I'm just kidding. We all did go We all did go to in

one last week. And that move Gil up to a stellar fifteen and eighteen, just a half a game behind Mike, you who also went to in one. Who's fifteen seventeen and one, and I am a game and a half pack at fourteen and nineteen. On the teaser side, it is now a tie for first place as Michael Paul one last week and me and Gilly did not. It's now six and five for me and Nike, and Gil moves to five five and one. It's tight. Everywhere in this national we are we are flipping coins. It's just

unbelievable what this season has been. By the way, this is us. Yeah, I'd like to this year. I'd like to make three notes. I'd like to make three notes. One Todd they're playing with a red ball and Kiev because the snow is a white on the internet, it's a red ball. Number two. Adam. Adam is our guest this week because no American could do it during it with Thanksgiving, but for him it's not Thanksgiving week three.

The deadline is ten pm Pacific Wednesday night for Thanksgiving, So it's neither of what we thought ten o'clock Wednesday night Pacific or one am Thursday morning Eastern to get your survivor picks in for things, and then the normal times three pm. Okay, okay um any so we have it. We usually go we start with Thursday night games, but there's obviously three on Thanksgiving. If they're part of your best bets, say so. If they're not, just any thoughts,

Adam will start with you. Any conviction or what's your most conviction on anything on Thanksgiving? Is it part of your best bets? Here? Sure, so I got one. I've already bet, but I will leave a note that is now turning into a very interesting handicapping spot in Chicago, with Matt Naggy coaching his last game for the Bears announced this morning, how much truth there is? But we know, like a coach fired the game after, especially when it's

kind of toxic like Chicago, always leads to something. But I don't remember a situation where it's been like this and it's like openly announced that he's going to be out. I don't and so I don't. I don't. I don't know how to handle that from a handicapping situation, but it's um that could be interesting. But I bet the Bills at four and four and a half, and I think that this is now a spot where off a couple of bad weeks, there's now kind of growing pressure on day Ball and Alan to come up with a

game plan. And on paper you look at and say, the Saints run defense should have no issues here because the Bills have no ground game whatsoever. But I think last week what Hurts did against the Saints defense and how easy he was able to run sort of opens things up for the Bills quite a bit. Alan the last time we've really seen him really good with his legs with that k C game, and I think there's kind of the same game plan emphasis here that the

Bills are gonna have. So I think that opens things up. But the Saints defense all year, they've given up the

seventh most explosive passes against. Like the Saints defense, you can hit the home run against it in the basque game, and I think with these three wide receivers for the Bills that just it's gonna be hard for the Saints to contain, and like on offense for the Saints, I mean this is a preseason offense with how it is right now, Like, there's not likely to be Kamara on the field, and I think the Bills defensively can can

hold them if the Saints have to keep up. I think it's a tough spot, so the Bills will be popular, but I don't mind it. I'm pretty happy to take Buffalo here at four or four and a half. Yeah, the Alvin Kamara news is not trending in the right direction for the Saints, at least we don't think it is. Here on Tuesday morning, UM Bills the third of the three games on Thanksgiving? Have we uh? Have we gone

overboard bearing the Bills at them? Because I lost on him a survivor when they lost the Jags, it was just a listless performance. They've looked terrible since. Um they haven't beaten anybody all year. They're now a half game out in the a f C East. If the playoffs were to start today, that actually be the seventh seed. I believe. UM no on them to miss the playoffs is four to one. Where do we stand on them?

Because their schedule is not like particularly easy down. There's not particularly hard either, but the easy part, the easiest part is behind them. I still think they're fine, and I think we've seen this happen to every other team in the a f C at some point this season, Like Kansas City went on that cold streak and we're like, are they done and where do they stand? Then we saw the Tennessee Titan rattled off all those wins and now all of a sudden they look broken in their

own right. Um, it just keeps happening to teams at the top of the a f C. I think Buffalo kind of have to stick to what we've seen from them at least early in the season and the promise this roster delivered. So definitely not out on Buffalo just yet. But I think it's just kind of how the AMC is playing out this year, where there's a new best team every single week. The Titans are the most fascinating

of that bunch. Like I don't remember remember season where with like six games remaining, you could say about a team. They're the number one seed today as currently constituted, without Derrick Henry or Julio Jones, they are a shell of their former selves. They are really bad at football right

at this moment. But if they can figure that the hardest games that are behind them, which they've won their easiest than though we could have said this about this past Sunday to noted um, they're easy games that they have the second easiest schedule moving forward, only the Eagles

have an easier schedule. And so it's this weird, full core moment where it's like, if they can overcome these games, they could end up the number one seed and have the easiest path and get Henry back, or they could just crap out entirely and not even get there, Like it's amazing you can get the court about my forty one to one Pats? What about my Pats. Everyone's just sleeping on Billy. I'm just keep sleeping on Billy. I'm not as sold on them as others are. Adam, where

do you stand on New England? Well, one more note about Tennessee, that's weird. The last couple of years they've been kind of that weird team that we're like, look how bad their defense is. Eventually this is going to catch up to them, and it has every year once you get into late December, in January this year. It's their defense playing well in spite of their offense. So it's kind of backwards and I feel like that matters.

New England's a weird team too, because they're kind of this the trendy team in the a f C. Now they rattled off of all these wins, everyone bumps them up. Mac Jones looks really good, the defense looks good. But there's Kevin Cole, who I follow from PF who's awesome.

He equates it to a really hot three point shooter on a run in the NBA, because if you look at mac jones numbers, he like he doesn't have huge volume for passing, but his third down stats and the success that he has on third down and has the

entire season is like all time high. And so how does that look as things tighten up down the stretch in the schedule, And like we were, he's still a rookie, Like at some point, you know when you're having that much success because the Pats put him in that with how much they run on first and second down, it's like,

can you really sustain that through a run? It's a really different paths tame so interesting by the way through out the statistics on the Patriots, like just like throughout all their Super Bowl years, throw out all the statistics. This is a Belichick heat, his finess, just brinding teams down with that running game at the defense. You watch, you keep laughing, but my one is looking better and better. I'm not laughing. I think I will say it's Ben MGM put out odds. Number one seed in the a

f C. Titans are the short shot plus one. A lot of that has to do with their easy scatter. You can still get the Colts at nine to one to when the UNFC South. If you think this is crashes ahead for Tennessee, yeah I don't think it will, but yeah you can't. That's a that's a pretty nice sprice. I am famously I have the Titans to win it all ticket. I was like, I think, if there's a path where they end up in a great position, but

obviously they sucked. Now I have the Texas. I said, you used the bills against Jacksonville because you thought they were and you you weren't going to use them later, right, And looks like you may be right. Yeah it didn't help, didn't help me, but your theory you had the right. Theory, Oh, so many theories. By the way, Adam, was that one of your best three? The Bills play on Thursday? Yeah? I like the Bills quite a bit and that spar

Where would you rank that one? Two or three? Just for giggles, two to two Mike Palm writing these downs, well, Todd is Todd Official Stenograph Courts for Todd Wish. I just like to I keep tracking myself as well. Did you guys have any thoughts on the Thursday games? Dad or mikey? I I just have a thought that I'm kind of leaning towards the Bears with the beige, right. I think that that that Andy Dalton really gives them

a better chance than Fields. I don't know what you guys think, but when I watch him, he looks much much. They look just much more offensive minded. Not not I'm not saying they're a great offensive tea, but maybe they moved from like a three out of ten to like a five and a half out of ten. When he's in there, five out of ten, he just looks professional. Now, Grant did he say any adult? And he's not great, but I think he moves them from a blow average

to like just slightly blow average. Is that the better play for the franchise moving forward though, to play him instead of Fields? Oh no, Obviously the franchises in disarray, and obviously you gotta do what you gotta do. But I'm just saying it's it's kind of like Fitzpatrick. Remember we had that year where Fitzpatrick came in and people didn't realize it's Pat for Miami was gonna be good. Dalton is really I mean, he's not good, but he's

better than Field, right, yeah, right, that's all I'm saying. Um, the naggy thing is interesting though, because you really don't know are they going to row you around? Naggie? You can't write like, how can you can't quantify such a thing. It's like are they gonna are they gonna rally round them? Are they gonna be like, well, we don't have to play today. The last time, that's why you can game, you can in game it. That's why end game is great.

The last time I remember this happening, although not at this level, was when Notre Dame announced they weren't going to bring Jerry Faust back and their last game was in the Orange Bowl and Jeffy Johnson being seven, the famous game where Era what's the color guy on the

game in air Procen complained about them running up the score. Well, let me ask you guys this and so like, obviously there was other circumstances at play, but I think a lot of players on the Raiders before the Bears game knew that it wasn't looking great for Grooten, And I mean he obviously did things that upset some people within the locker room, But like, is this potential Like that was a complete no show from the Raiders in that game.

This all within like that category is great that you brought it up, because that's the most similar thing, right, I think. So Survivor that God, I mean, I don't that's that's such a tough game. Like I said, imagine, imagine you're in Survivor and your brain he was, and now we go to over time if Troy okay, you know, so, so it's a that's a tough one. Um, would you

tease Dallas down? We don't know about Ceedee Lamb. We think Tyron Smith is back, uh and uh Maori Cooper is definitely out, but we don't know about Ceedee Lamb. That's my teaser. That's part of my There was an update on Lamb just before we came on and said he's participating in activity. Okay, does that mean you'll play? We don't know, participating in activity. All right, Well, let's

start with the best bets. Let's do it. Adam, you've given, You've given your number two, but let's get your number one first. I'm glad everyone's sitting down. You gotta go Jets. Oh, the Texans can't lay to anybody in the league. I don't I don't have anyone behind them in my ratings. Last week they beat Tennessee, but they benefit from five turnover and in that game, the Texans allowed four hundred twenty yards of offense to the Titans and put up

just one ninety of their own. Like Tyrod Taylor's not gad pardon me, is not making this team any better than they are. They release another running back today, so Ingram's gone, Lindsay's out. They're down to Rex burkehead and a shell of David Johnson. I just the Jets biggest issue the last five to six weeks has been their defense. They give up five hundred plus to New England, five

plus the Indie five of the Bills. They can't stop anyone, but does Houston have anyone that can threaten them downfield? I think it's just a big step down in class for Jets and the opponents they face. If they hold Houston points, I think the Jets can get over against this bad Texans defense. The Jets have decent weapons and probably Wilson at quarterback, which I think is decent, but um decent relative to Flacco. I should clarify, But I mean, you gotta bet the Jets here. I don't know how

how you can have it. Texan's rated higher. To your point, Houston will get in that win over Tennessee. Fifteen total first downs, as you said, a hundred ninety total yards, only a hundred and seven of which were passing yards. But it's the plus five in turnovers. You go plus five in turnovers. You know the Tennessee had five, they had none. You're probably gonna win every single football game.

And yet the Titans had the ball with six twenty left after Cully decided to punt up nineteen to thirteen fourth and inches from his own thirty four. So the Titans had the ball with the chance to go ahead, and then Ryan Tannehill threw the third of his four picks and then another interceptions. He threw three fourth quarter picks.

I bet Houston and it's two oh five. Early in the third quarter when they were up thirteen and nothing with the ball, and and E, who was hoping they would Tennessee would lose for the Survivor impact of it, said to me, you're they're not losing this game. There's no way Houston's winning this game. And I texted him back, I said, I have Culli, Taylor and Fairburn. How could

I lose this game? Had like you know, I had, and I had Tennessee plus nine, and I thought, I'm in now that they're down six, and then they give up another interception in the field, goes. I pushed, but it was like, oh, by the way, you tell your Freddie, if you buy back into Survivor, you're not winning. You don't win Survivor. That like, just just shut up about that. If he buys back in and he acts like he's you know, he's like from the beginning, it survives there

like a secondary I'm still alive. He found somebody that had multiple entries at that had one left that wanted to get out of you know, possibly losing the whole three thousand if they did it, win and let him buy in a half steak in it to cover the guy's outlet. That's fine, that's wonderful. Just don't act like you're guess it's just ridiculous. It's like, yeah, great, awesome, Sparris.

There's a good move for him because he's gonna be betting way more than that on these games for what he's investing, and he's got all that, you know, the joy of it. Maybe you win. Just don't act like you want survivor. I mean that is it's only a phaghazy if you claim, if you claim, I don't know, Yeah, he's Oh he's siphtict. I moved on from Brent to

eat that Brent. By the way, that went well with brent On on last week when when Mike didn't actually go crazy with him last year, I Mike toned it down from one thousand percent sycophantic down to Lake seven. It was fantastic. Could you do the invitation of Mike last year with bread? Could you do that? Oh? Yes, well, brand remember that one time when you went to Starbucks and you got the coffee and I never saw someone ordered coffee that well. It was just it's incredible. You

ordered We're able to coffee. I've never seen anything like that. I've seen full storage order coffee cost You can Jimmy the Great order coffee and orders them long. You're the best. And by the way that I ever sell you out great because it's all because we're losing your mic on that. All right, So Buffalo and the Jets are Adams one in two. No excuse me, Jets and Buffalo one in two. Um, we have an alarm here at the day? Is that we're here in the background. Yeah, okay, we're here. It's

the it's the alarm. Were thirty minutes in and we haven't gotten a big from from any of the three of us. Okay, that's the alarm. Okay, Mikey, you're number one. You know. I'm gonna do this just so Todd can sing his song. I like the Miami Dolphins this week, Go Todd, I haven't. I have not sung the song in the number of but I'll give it to you right now. Dolphins. Maybe there's a resurgeons. They beat the New York Jets and and as he couldn't even do it.

Miami Dolphin and my depos taking them. So let's groot the hell out of the other team. Let's get sorry. I I don't think Carolina should be favored on the road here, especially in the midst of this Cam Newton experience. I mean, yes, he was limited and he'd only been there, you know, two weeks and what he knows out of the playbook, but he was very limited in New England and that he'd been there a year and didn't know that much out of the playbook coming in as well.

I think this Dolphense defense is the top eight defense in the league. Maybe I'm I'm I'm undergrading, but I think this is a very good defense. Brian Flores didn't stop being a good coach this year just because they had such poor quarterback playing Jacoby Brissette. This is really really denigrated from what he was in in in in Indianapolis.

I think they are a decent offense. I mean, obviously two is not going to stretch the field that far, but you see you can move the ball with a short passing game and running the ball against the Panthers. As as Washington. Did you know, I thought Washington was actually dominant in that game. Uh, and the score was closer than the game really was. I think Miami, this game should be at worse to pick. So I'll take points at home Miami from one in seven to four

and seven. And Kim Newton Warren Sharp used to say this about Cam new so right, the greatest front runner there ever was. Man. When things are going well, he's race sprit into midfield, playing the flag whatever he's doing. But as soon as they fall behind, Oh, Cam, you're very quiet. All of a sudden, he's a backup order back and he's running to the middle of the field and putting the ball. I mean, come on, seriously, you have less self awareness. I mean, come on, it's a

little ridiculous. And by the way, p J. Walker is better, Well, he's easy. But I think Mike said it right, Like he didn't do anything last year in New England. The pass didn't won him. And at some point this year the Panthers won at Sam Donald more than they wanted. Cam Newton and like stuck with that for half the season and then they got a little bit desperate because everyone was hurt. And so it's like his energy is disguising this lack of play on field for sure. I

want to ask you something. Matt Naggie, by the way, denying the reports he is saying that is not accurate. Well, the report of his imminent mind. He gets fired on Friday. It looks a little bit foolish. Where do you think Matt Rule is coaching next year? Do you think he sticks? I do too. I think it's just too attractive of a job. Matt Rule does not appear to be wrong for the NFL. That's so that's the word that he

doesn't love it. So that's my guess. Um. Remember when he came in and they're all the videos of how positive everything was in the locker room, and it was this big deal and he just never really heard anything about it. Since it's it's story kind of went away. Todd, Todd, your number one pick is DoD I'm gonna go back to the well with what brung me last week. I'm gonna pounding away on these jackson Will Jacks unders because

the Jacksonville Jaguars cannot score the football. I mean, it is just it is ridiculous on offense with the Jaguars, and how do you get the forty six point unless Atlanta is gonna score a billions? Who knows what Mattie gives you. I'm going under forty six in that game. I went under with them at last week against the Niners. They couldn't score. They give him a twelve minute drive in the first quarter. Um, I just if you look at the Jaguars, how do they get the seventeen points

or even twenty points? They can't score? So I'm going under forty six. I mean, it's an NFL board. It's very difficult to find good bets your pre game. But I'll take under jack. I love it. Um Todd and Adams number one bets are on the Jets Houston game, in the Atlanta Jacksonville game, barn Burners that time of year. It's that time of year. You know. They all cash the same way. Though. That's what I say about my tennis place. It seems to give a dale, but they

cast the same way. Um. You know, do you find you've done when you look at it? Much better? In the women's side, No, it's it's even, okay, pretty even all rights. Because I had the snow game on and now it's fun. It's it's one nothing thirtieth minute and now you're the goaltender for Buyron just tried to play a ball and completely whipped on it, but it hit the post and went out. So you're lucky because my

feed went away thirty first minute want nothing Byron. You know it works great on podcast talking about a live soccer game and the people love it. People love to talk about weather. I love soccer. Total sweats are the best kind of Do you remember that time you made it snow and fill it out your No one could make it snow the way you do. My number one bet is the Washington football team. Oh so, talk about

another great game, right Seattle, Washington. It's Monday night. It should be noted the three and seven Seahawks the worst records in two thousand nine against Washington, who if they win this football game, legitimately in the hunt in the National and the Redskins are in the football team are still alive. I said this last week before the games. If Washington wins, there listen, Uh, Seattle could not look anywhere. And we all love Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson two games

back from injury. Uh does not look like the Russell Wilson we remember. Zero touchdowns in two games back from injury. UM. And then Pete Carroll has this whole thing where he just he just like, we are going to run the football if it's the last thing on earth to night do kind of thing. And then there's Washington talking about that Carolina game. Uh, Taylor Heinekey biggest play of the game again was the fourth and three at the Carolina forty seven twenty three left in the fourth quarter, game

tied at one. Had just uh they just had a third and twenty one. He scrambles out to the left, he's flushed out and last minute makes that play. Debates. I'm not saying Heinek is the greatest quarterback on our it, but right now he may be the better of the two quarterbacks. I know that's crazy talk. Uh, But I also said this. With the absence of Chase Young on defense for Washington, as much as I love Chase Young, as much as I hate seeing him hurt, I actually

think that makes that defense more disciplined. They certainly looked that way against Cam Newton. Maybe it's because Cam Newton is not that great. UM, and so I think the Washington football team, who had no home field advantage whatsoever. Let me just note that for this Monday night game. Despite that, when we did guessing lines on Monday morning with Chrissy, I guess that Washington would be a two and a half. Excuse me, I guess the three point favorite.

He says to me goes Seattle opened as a three point favor. I was like, you gotta be kidding me. And apparently it's been bet to about a pick him. Now what is it right now? I'm not sure that was the most ridiculous over So I actually like Washington in this situation. I don't know that had bet him many times this year, um, but I bet him last week to success, and I'm betting him here again. Where will Pete Carroll beating? Well? He maybe he can go to one of these programs and cheating when it title

shouldn't he want to be done? How old is that guy? I don't know, he's almost seventy. I think, yeah, it's he's getting up there, getting up there. So Washington my first pick, that's my second one? Is it? Yeah? You like it as I like it as well? Okay, same reasons not putting you down. Also one I'm gonna ask you this, Yeah, but minus one is Terry McLaurin a top five wide receiver in the NFL. Gread he's unstoppable. I don't know. I don't know if he's top five,

but top ten for sure. You can make an argument for him for m v P this year. In my mind, there's no clear MVP in this league. Who's the m v P in this league? Kirk Counsen's Kirk Counsen says an argument, he's of the Philip Rivers Award. Give him the Philip Rivers Award. We have to we have to also distinguish people who were talking about m v P. You have to distinguish with the m v P and Offensive Player of the Year. M v P has given

almost exclusively to quarterbacks. Offensive Player of the Year historically has been given the quarterbacks and running backs historically. So like the Jonathan Taylor's of the world will win Offensive Player of the Year, but they're unlikely to. So that's a whole sort of zamilies if you go by history.

Now maybe that changes in any given week, but I had I watched football last Sunday, not two days ago, but nine days ago with Aaron Shots, the creator Football Outsiders at the Cosmo, and he says a lot of interesting things in a three hour period. You know what I did not know? He is a voter for m v P. So when we talk about the Heisman, there's like nine hundred plus Heisman is a voter. Not for the Heisman, No, but I'm saying for yeah really yeah.

So so there's nine hundred plus voters for Heisman. Do you know how many voters vote on m v P in the NFL any idea? Uh, fifty? Exactly. You were wrong, You're wrong. I'm sorry you lost your So so when we throw around that stat we're like, oh, Russell Wilson has never got an m v P vot because there's very few votes. There's only fifty and they only count the first place votes. So that's why. So when I made a bet earlier this year on Justin Herbert to win m v P, I wish I had not like

Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert, right, but think about it, you have to be first on the fifty people's ballots, and like, Justin Herbert doesn't sound like a number one guy. He sounds like people would have him sprinkled at two and three all over the place. So I like that Justin Herbert, he's pretty good. He is pretty good, but is he gonna win M v P? I mean, I don't know. Let me throw one from left field out of you here. And like you said, Gil, with the quarterbacks and running backs,

it's hard to get around that. But I would argue that this year to date we've had less of a standout quarterback than we've had in any of the last five to ten seasons. Like there's just nobody out there. Brady has been good. But if the Rams end up winning thirteen games above thirteen games and maybe they're at the top of the NFC and Cup breaks all of the Jerry Rice records, we've seen Stafford, who would usually be the benefactor of that performance. There's a QB and

a wide receiver. They're connected. But Staffords looked horrendous in their two primetime spots, and I think everybody sort of took note of that in those two ugly losses. Cup last week was as high as five hundred to one. Now he's about a hundred or two hundred to one. If he breaks all of Jerry Rice's record and the Rams of that stand up team in the NFC and the QB play, there's not that clear front runner. I

think it has a chance. It's an interesting it's an interesting thing at him because I actually talked about this a few weeks ago in a Numbers game, which is so, Derrick Henry last year gained over two thousand yards rushing, and so if this were which I believe was the first two thousand yard rushing season since Eric Dickerson and O. J. Simpson, I might be wrong about that, maybe maybe somebody else did it, but if this were nineteen and he did that,

it would be like, oh my god, Derrick Derrick Henry gained two thousand yards last year. He did it, and he didn't even sniff the m v P. Right, So I'm wondering. I'm wondering if the same sort of evolutionary logic applies against Cooper Cup, which is that's great that he broke those records, but those records don't mean as much to us now as they used to. They definitely don't. And I think that's that's the trouble here, is it's

so narrow when you look at who's won it. But I last year Rogers from a quarterback perspective, was like, stand out that there's no way anything was ever going to go around him, So I think that overshadowed it. Like if Brady slows down a little bit, Like you look at the qv play this year, I think it's a massive step down from like having a front runner compared to last year. So that might help. But either way, it's going to be very difficult to get those votes.

But your your point about the fact that it's there's no quarterback standing out, that was a great one, right. We were we were talking on a on guessing lines yesterday about because I had I was going through all these quarterbacks that won games, you know, with less than two hundred yards passes. So Whence won it with a hundred six obviously, Had Taylor Hurts won their game with a hundred forty seven yards passing. Obviously he runs a lot. Uh to Rod Taylor won their game with a hundred

seven yards passing. Obviously the plus five in turnovers. Garoppolo won the Niners game with a hundred and seventy six yards. I believe it was passing. Mayfield won the Browns game with a hundred seventy six yards. So there's all the reasons why that happened, right, The Niners had that twenty played drive. The Jaguars had run a grand total of four plays by the eight thirty nine mark of the

second quarters. So the reasons why this happened. But I threw that out to Christian said, doesn't seem weird this year that all these games are being won by quarterbacks with these lame stats? And he said Stafford. Stafford is number one in total QBR this year, but the number he has in total QBR at this time last year would be twelve, which is unbelievable. That's that's incredible. Yeah, twelve. So it's just like the whole I don't know, fin Like I always, I have this theory. I can't prove

it that. It's like the adding the seventeenth game has somehow cosmically affected everything in the NFL. But what do I know? Well, let me ask you this, when's the last time you've seen this many starters sit in fourth quarters of games mid season? Right? Like I've I've seen four or five teams bench guys mid early fourth quarter the last to three weeks. Like it's becoming a real thing,

that's happening. The Giants just fired Jason Garrett just fired, just fired coach Jason Garrett after that debacle last night. Is Judge gun as well? No, just saying that the Giants have fired offensive ward near Jason Garrett. Joe Judge, No, no word on him. That's from Tom Pella Sero at NFL Network. By the way, one Judge dodges another bullet. Judge jog dodges pointing at Ammy Managesh. Naggy, by the way, was plus seven fifty ish first coach to be fired

preseason Naggie. Joe Judge making making flirtation with it right now? Um, number So that was your number two, Todd, your number two. It's funny that you just said that because I I have I was gonna go with who do you have? Mike? You what's the line on the Eagles Giants game? You know what's the line of the Eagles Giants? I would tell you three and a half, Todd three. You're not going to accept it. Three and a half. I do want that because I want the New York Giants, the

n WYDE Giants. I'm gonna take him if I know, I'm gonna hold my nose and I'm just gonna take them. I know they look to rent this last week, but they have had games where at home they show up, they played defense, and the Eagles are coming in on all this. Jalen Hurd is the m d P, the greatest quarterback in the story of Oklahoma and Philadelphia Athletics. Uh, you know, all this amazing emotion about how great the Eagles are, all this amazing emotion about how bad the

Giants are. If I know anything about the NFL, You're never as bad as you look the week you look bad, and you're never just to look the week you look good. Give me the Giants to hang under that book Bust three and a half, and now I get the bonus of the platfor is out as offensive coordinator. The better give me the Giants three todd with the Giants. God, is this the poop poo platter of picks? If you like the Giants, wait because the Eagles will move a

point and a half to three points. But on Sunday, single week, Adam, let me ask you a question, because obviously that's been like the theme throughout the year, where the sharps love the Eagles, the wise guys love the Eagles, all these betting groups love the Eagles. Have you gotten to the bottom of what it is about them. They like I wish I knew. It's like, I think we're seeing some of it in the last three to four weeks with that offensive shift and now they've switched up

their play calling. But it's like you guys said, every single week they're getting absolute smashed. And the other team that was getting that treatment was the Saints, and they played each other last week and the Saints were decide that took money or the Eagles took money against the Saints there, so that kind of settled that debate. So

it's like every week it's happening. But just like since Week eight, their number one offensively and the way they were able to run the football, it's pretty overwhelming for some of these defenses that they faced. Wonder how long one you be in one receiver basically hurts and Smith and the passing game can continue on. Four straight games were a hundred with a hundred seventy plus rushing yards for the Eagles. They won forty nine, but it was

thirty three to seven after three. Yeah, you're gonna say, they bet. They bet Philadelphia like they have tomorrow's newspaper every single week and it's sharps And now the public and this week because of the Kamara and all the the COVID news, But they love this team it and maybe they're getting better maybe. I mean Michael Lombardi said it's like the Oklahoma offense, but now this week he

said it's like prepared and for Army is. None of these teams are used to playing against this, this type of an offense, and so it's a it's a one off for them, and that's why they're having success to an extent. People love Baltimore to the last two years and kind of a similar sort of makeup too. It's not as strong this year, but it's kind of along that same theme, where like you said, Mike could just have to prepare for what is the Tennessee New England

line consensus six and a half? Now, ye at six and a half, Okay, I'm gonna have to take Tennessee. Um I listen. I don't like him either right now. I had the Texans. They had the Texans last week. That one got home quite easily. They went out right. Didn't think they went out right. But the ten points is way too many. I actually think the pet who said that was going to be the biggest uh dog winner on the board. Who did you didn't Todd oh biggest,

biggest favorite, most likely to lose out right? That was you? Um okay, I think I have to take the Tennessee Titans here because as much as I like them long term, as much as I dislike them short term, this seems to be And as much as people seem to like New England now, I'm not quite an on board with the New England bandwagon as others are. This just seems a little too much for me. I had guessed four and a half on guessing lines on Monday morning, six

and a half, some little nutty. The Tennessee defense, especially that front four, is good. Um, and I just don't know if New England is that dynamic offensively to uh to get so many points that they cover a six and a half. I don't know if Tennessee wins this game but six and a half again. Last week they were minus five and turnovers Ryan Tannehill through four picks

three and the fourth quarter that's unlikely to happen again. UM. I don't know what kill I agree with you At first glance, it seems like it's too many for in New England offense. But on the other side, Winland's defense is just hammering people, and now Tennessee's offense is looking that. Aren't you a little concerned that you might get another Tennessee bad offensive performance? Makes me wanted even more that you love New England so much Tennessee. I don't love him.

I'm just asking you if you're concerned you don't love him, But you've said eight times about Yes, I like them overall, but I would not bet six and half. In fact, if I had to bet, i'd take Tennessee. No, I'm taking the plus six and a half. I think it's I think it's an overreaction, is what I'm getting it, And that's all I'm playing here. And again, I don't think Tennessee is very good right now, that's for sure, as much as I like them long term, So Tennessee

plus six and a half is my number two. Adam, do you disagree with my forty one to one from two weeks ago with the Patriot? Do you think it's a bad betunder one? I think it's an excellent bet. But now you're backing away from it when confronted by your own love. I'm not backing away for whether they'll cover this week. Has nothing to do with my long

term uh thoughts about the Patriot. I think they're pulling it together and they're definitely making the playoffs and that forty one one will be edgeable no no matter what, well he he told you, when are you starting? When will you start to answer me with Tennessee this week?

Why don't you? And he'll tell you what the hedge it is because we know you have to ask him everything, including whether Brent was the best pop order at Alright, third picks because Mikey's on the deadline here, Todd second, Adam, excuse me, I couldn't believe it. Okay, go ahead, you couldn't believe it. Don't believe it, Adam number three, sir, So I'm not going to be the third man in on Washington. Although that was the way I had circled

to talk about. I'm with you guys completely there. Um. I'm at six and a half because the way I look at this, it reminds me a lot of the Saints Falcons game a couple of weeks ago, where the Saints went on a bit of a run. They were beating up kind of bad teams are covering numbers where they were short favorites or a dog, and then they got up to six, six and a half, and then we looked at the offense and said, this is not really an offense that's built to hang huge numbers against

decent teams. Just at the pace they move, one or two drives stall out and all of a sudden, like they're kind of playing catchup. And so at six and a half, I don't know what you make Tennessee, but like I think most people kind of have them at worst around an average team in the NFL to get to six and a half, like the Pats have to be top three basically in your ratings to get to this number. I think that's too much of a stretch both ways. I don't think Tennessee's a top ten team,

but I don't think they're worse than average. And I don't think the Pats are a top five team yet, So I don't get to this number either. So I'll go Titan Adam. I love being on your side. If this doesn't work out, it's all my fault, Tennessee. I'll take the blame for it. The way the season and it's gotta turn some point Mikey, you're number three. I like the Minnesota Vikings, of course you do. I do

like the Minnesotavia. When does they like the Minnesota? Well, I, you know, I think that the you know, this San Francisco team has has done a good job of running the football, but this guilt points out. I mean, Garoppolo is not throwing for two hundred yards a game. And I think when you face a team like Minnesota, you're gonna have to put up some points. I don't think you can sustain drives twelve plays, four team plays, six team plays without getting a holding, without getting some sort

of a mistake, a negative play. You've got to have some explosiveness to your offense when you're gonna play the Vikings. Look this kid that didn't win the Rookie of the Year because uh, because Herbert had such a great year. This Jefferson. God is he good? Yeah? He was. He He was very very impressive against the Packers. I thought, um, incidentally, I thought the game that they won in overtime in Carolina. He had a very poor game that game, but he

was very very good here against the Packers. I think the Vikings are definitely a playoff team. I think they're better than the Fortunite. This is a key game for them, the Viking. If they're going to make the NFC Wildcard here, they need to win this game in San Francisco. It really is uh and I think it's a close game and I'll take a field goal in a close game here to five. Never likes to lose by less than a field he likes to win. By his comments, whoever

said Sunday Fundays Sundays aren't fun, Sundays are hard. Minnesota and San Francisco both five and five. By the way, again, Minnesota on their five and five season, Let's remember they lost on a Dalvin Cook fumble in overtime in Cincinnati. They missed the thirty seven yard field goal to lose to Arizona with no time left that would have won it for him. They lost to Cleveland by seven, They had the ball to Cleveland twenty six with no time left on the clock. They did lose to Cooper Rush.

That was their worst game. Uh. They coughed up a fourteen point second half lead against Baltimore lost that. So those five losses that I just mentioned by a total of eighteen points. So they all their five losses by grand total of eighteen points. But now let's not let's not forget about some of their wins. They'd be Detroit by a miracle where they were down in the last minute because they fumbled, remember late. Then Kirk Cousins had to rally him back and Joseph hit the game away.

But it wasn't a miracle. It was Detroit letting him have forty yards right down the middle where they still had two time out. True, and Joseph that Joseph along field. That was another survivor survivor for UH. And then they beat Carolina in overtime after trying desperately to lose that game, and then they win. They beat Green Bay by three after they controlled the most majority of that They go up twelve points and then Zimmer kicks an extra point

to make it three. Didn't why didn't Rabel go for two when it when in that situation get nineteen it was nineteen. He gets a touchdown, and he decides to go to nineteen seven instead of nineteen eight. Again, if you can explain mathematics for me somehow and explain to me how you go from nineteen to six. It was rather voted nineteen to seven to eight. I'm not sure I understand mathematics anymore, because isn't that doesn't what is he talking about? Why? Why are he doing that? My

favorite Indians, my favorite I don't understand that. The best was the which was the Urban Meyer game where they were down similarly, it was like twenty six to nothing, nothing and they got a touch on nothing but the extra point and then they on side kick. It's like one half of it right. One of those things can't be right. One of the what is the What is wrong with coaches? I mean it's it's not their their first game coaching. What is going on? They can't even

figure out like basic ideas? It's not it's not that of hard. Have you seen college football coaches? Dude, That's what I'm do. You see these guys snapping the ball with twenty on the play talk with and there's two forty left in their winning game. I'm like, I'm ready to literally jump through the television said strangle the college.

Can't believe what I see. College football coaches might be the most unintelligent cross section of human beings you could ever witness in a given day, at least David Shaw when he when David Shaw, with three minutes ago, kicks the extra point to go down seven kicks away deep, he fully gives up. Yes, at least he Constan Tubberville is in a Senator and he thinks the three uh three branches of government. He's very good on that stuff. He's very very never went to an American history class

in his life. Apparently nobody punchs across midfield better than David Shaw. Nobody. And I don't know what he's going for it world, I don't get it. Yeah, for the first twelve years he was famous for kicking the most the number of eighteen and nineteen yard field goals and n c A football. Now he's going forth fourth and from the six. Yeah. By the way, if we're if we're to believe Brent that Notre Dame is live to make the playoffs, right, and Todd has a bet on

it as well. If we're to believe that, how is Notre Dame only in eighteen and a half point favorite at Stanford. They're they're going to make the playoffs and they're only that against Stanford. Stand for it is terrible. That's part of the narrative though about Oregon's loss there, and it's a tough place to play, and all the it's all that garbage from the PAC twelve Garbena pack twelve GARBA. That doesn't mean they're like gonna make it.

It's obviously well if a well listen, if Alabama loses to Georgia, Okay, Ohio State and Michigan are gonna lemonate each other, Cincinnati can get in. And if Oklahoma State doesn't run the table, there's there's Notre Dame's path. They need those three things to happen. Happen. It could happen, It could absolutely happen. I am completely rooting for Cincinnati to go undefeated. Then the committee screws them and watch people lose their minds. That's what I'm rooting for. I'm

rooting for, not really because I'm rooting. I'm rooting for Alabama to win. And it's Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and they put a one loss Notre Dame team ahead to Cincinnati and their losses to Cincinnati. That will blow the whole thing up. The joy of it would be fantastic because Luke Fickle would deserve it for what he did in the bowl game. When it was raining, running hurry up inside the five yard line, and the worst travesty they were carting people off the field every other play.

That was how bad the conditions were. Someone might have had a bet on that game. Todd. I'm guessing, uh, Todd, your last pick, because we've gotta get my gaut here my last pick, boy, I'm I'm gonna go with the Los Angeles Chargers over. Uh. I just watched this Charger team and they seem to be the ultimate over machine. Their offense is unstoppable. I really love their often um, I mean they looked. They made the Steelers completed defense

look very bad, but they make every team look bad. Offensively, they moved the ball against everyone. I don't see. The only team they really didn't move it against was that Ravens Camp. Other than that, they moved the ball against everybody. So I think they can score. And I think their defense is really not that special because Big Ben and the and the Insers were movement on the and the Insers are not very good at off and so I you know, I was not impressed and I haven't been.

And they give up forty seven to the Browns. I believe they give up forty seven. They give up a lot of points. To me, they're just an over team and Teddy two gloves will get you a couple point at home and give me the charges. Then for Game O, my my third and last pick is I really don't have much behind this, but I don't know. I'm taking Green Bay over the Rams. What's the number there? Now? I wanted to do that, but I was scared that I have. I think it's like one. Let me just check. Yeah,

it's a less than three. I'm taking pick. Yeah, I don't know three Bays one or a pick. You can have what you can have, give him a pick. This is one of those where I'm just like, if you can beat me Rams, tip of the cap and I'll accept it. I just don't The Rams have played two really bad games in a row. Um. Obviously that game got away from them against Tennessee, uh, and then San Francisco just man handle them. And Green Bay ain't dumb. They probably watched a lot of that and might have

taken a pointer or two. But of course they have Aaron Rodgers. So it's a different animal than the Niners. They're not gonna completely adapt to what the Niners did. But I just think Aaron Rodgers, to me, can do no wrong in this kind of situation. Say what you will about whatever happened him off the field recently, whatever you think about that, what a football player he is. But I think I think the Packers will take some notes from the Niners. I think they will go out

Aaron Donald with a J. Dillon um. And I just I just feel better about the Packers in this situation. Not supposed to be bad weather, um, so that's not probably a factor in this game. But I just like the Packers better as a football team at home maybe one of the few home advantage home fieldvantages that still exists. Adam, what do you have? Do you have home field advantage? Any teams having any significant home field at this point in your numbers? Nobody greater than two? And who would

that be? Green Bay's at the top at the top. But the inswers, what are the inswers in on the home field advantage? That means Pittsburgh, Adam, Pittsburgh Stars, Pittsburgh. I'm looking now one point exactly on the nose. Who has who are the top three? Green Bay at two? And who's the other top? Green Bay? New England and the Saints Green Bay, New England and the Saints who has zero? Chiefs The Chiefs seem to have a pretty good Chargers have zero. So you can almost argue as

negative Washington has zero. Agree on both um more zeros, Houston has zero, Detroit has zero. Boy, you're so right about so far in the Chargers. That was like Heines Field on Sunday night. It was almost flipped if you measured it. I'm sure it was North for the Steelers. And Washington has had eurow to negative home field for years now. You go those games overrun by visiting crowd too. And at one time, wasn't Washington like an incredible home up at RFK Stadium was the greatest place on Earth.

I grew up in that. And then zation just fell apart right then the organization Daniel Sneyder Bottom they before that, they moved outside of the city to this antiseptic FedEx field and that was the end of that. Horrible, horrible Daniel Steinder has kidnapped the love of my life. And Jack Kent was Jack Kent Cook, the owner. Jacks owned the Lakers in Washington. Then he got rid of the Lakers and wanted to won three Super Bowls with Washington

in a converted baseball stadium. That's right, the Niners and the and Washington very similar. They both won multiple super Bowls in old baseball stadiums RFK and Candlestick, and then at different times, left those horrible football structures where they won multiple super Bowls to go to the suburbs to just have an antiseptic, no home field advantage stadium. I don't know what. He just killed it. Yeah, just killed it,

killed the whole thing, both of them. Um, okay, so last things then teasers favorite two legs, six point teaser of the week. I'm in a bit of a losing streak with these teasers. By the way, Dallas, Dallas could not get home, and it was they were at the twenty yard line. I was like, kick a field goal. Plays I knew something bad was gonna happen. It's like, kick it for God's sakes. That of course he throws

a pick. My friend had plus nine and the in game would just similar to way you had on the thing, and he's like, okay, where getting the field goal? LEAs, why was why was McCarthy saving his time outs at the end of the first half. I didn't understand what he was doing. There prob again, thirty six seconds left, they just tackled. There's no reason. What do you do, Adam? Adam, your your favorite two legs? You give yours? Yet? Ye Okay, I go Jets up. And that's how boys down. Jets up,

Cowboys down. Everybody's just wants to just dump on the Raiders for good reason. God, you go first on the teaser for the rest of us. Okay, I'm gonna go with Okay, I know you're gonna make fun of me. I want to go with my Pats minus a half. I believe in this Pats team. Now, I wouldn't be betting on them to cover the six and half. I'm I agree with you. That's a lot of a lot of points. But just to win the game. You know, I got Bill Belichick. He's gonna cooke something up with

a depleted Tennessee offense. Give me the Pats. All they gotta do is win the game minus a half and uh give me Miami Dolph I am do. I know I'm gonna get Miami Dolphins plus eight. I'm going Dallas in Indianapolis. That's what I have I'm there. We got cowboys coat and wait, wait, wait, let me just get colts up through the three and the seven A Ward A Stanford Wong. I gotta just check the quotes to

give me the official numbers. Quotes are what's that? Yeah, John Ferguson, did you just go around the pen name? Then I did? John Ferguson suits him Stanford long, John Ferguson from California. I'm told, let's just you guys have Cowboys minus a half in Indie plus eight half. Okay, yes that is correct, half minus a half plus eight and a half. All right, Then the final two questions we end up it's ten forty seven. By the way,

we got two questions the big favorites. And by the way, this is a very quick question because there's none of these this week. There's only two favorites of greater than four and a half points. It's Dallas at home versus Las Vegas on Thanksgiving in this New England hosting Tennessee. Everybody's four and a half or like, yeah, that's it? Uh, was more like the Raiders shocked the world shocked the world. Who's more likely shocked Todd, who's more likely to lose

Dallas or New England, Adam, New England. Stop well, Todd says, Dallas, New England. Oh for me, it's New England. Yeah, question, obviously it is. But would you all love it if the Raiders came back from the dead and knocked off the Cowboys. So now, in a week, by the way, if all three underdogs went on Thanksgiving, there should be three or four survivor entries left. Did I say that already? Uh? Yeah, okay, Now in a week where there's so many closely lined games.

Last question, you live in a bizarro world. You had to bet aside on every single game, but one, one game that was more Michugun than all the others, Adam, which is the game you want no part of on the side? One game I want no part of on the side would be Cleveland Baltimore because there's way too many questions in a number that I think it's just in a messy spot. Mikey Chargers and Broncos charges the Broncos,

thank you, Mike, Paul Todd Wishne. I'm with Adam. I who knows what's going on down in both God, there's like twenty five of these games you could pick from this weekend, so many of them. No, Uh, I'm gonna say Minnesota, San Francisco because Mike Zimmer is gonna make Cousins is a Hall of Famer. We all know, Happy Thanksgiving, Happy Thanksgiving. Um yeah, just because Mike Zimmer is gonna make sure it comes out of the last play either way.

So I'll say Minnesota, San Francisco, last thing before before we go, and Mike is is running to do his show odds On co hosted by A Mall show at UH at Visa. So, Adam, I feel like because we haven't we we talked over you too much. You're the guy with the seventies seven and thirty eight record and I just want to get a sense from you. And I know you're being super modest about saying how none

of this could possible be sustainable? Um. What would you say though, if you had to, if you had to pinpoint the top reason or two for your success thus far, whether it's a certain thing you look at, it's a certain metric, whatever it is, what would you say? The answer to that question is, I'm I'm very much on this subjective side of things, um, more so than I am any intense modeling. I like to sort of outsource that and get it from people who are much smarter

at doing that than I am. I know that they'll always be better at that, So I used that to an extent. But I would say, like looking at last year, where I really struggled, the biggest difference between then and now is last year, I was trying to read everything like I was just give me more and more and more and more and more, and I was I was listening back to stuff I said, and I was like,

what am I even talking about? And this year I've I've tried to consume a lot less but go a lot deeper on subjects and just kind of keep it more simplistic. So rather than trying to do everything, I've just kind of narrowed my focus a little bit, and I think it's led me to have a lot better ratings overall and not overreact nearly as much and sort of snap news. And so that's helped me a ton, because like last year, there were so many bets that I made that were just snap reactions to news or

injuries or anything like that. This year it's been a lot more sort of calculated or anticipated bets at certain times and it's made a huge difference. That is a that is a fascinating answer because I I think there is a lot of wisdom in that and it's it's one of those things where, uh, I guess the the cliche peoples paralysis by analysis can happen sometimes. Uh Dr Bob who was a who is a modeler um that I used to work with, is like a pioneer and

using uh you know models for sports betting. Oh great guy too, but even he like as he has added layers through the years, like acknowledges, it was too much like you just get too many different things. I will say that when I handicapped tennis almost in a in a weird way, less is sometimes more. You can let a lot of stuff polluted. So that's interesting that that that has been a source of your success in football.

That then, and the most interesting detail you said also is that you listen to yourself from last year and you're like, what the hell am I? What the hell am I talking about? That's fascinating. Well, and part of that too was LVC himself Chris like, he's like the difference that you like how you sound this year versus how you sounded a year ago, it's like you're a

completely different person. And a comment I got a lot last year of people that listen to the show, they're like, we don't understand how you're down or how you're making some of these bets because you're you're making a very clear case for a handicap and then you're going a different direction, and so it's like there's something they're like,

we're listening to you and we're doing great. We don't know how you're losing money this year, Like everything you're saying is bought on, but you're just making really bad decisions. And this year, I'm it's just so much more clarity. And so he's helped me a ton of saying, like listen to what you were saying last year versus this year, and how much simpler it is, and how much easier it is to understand. There's so much more clarity. So

that's been huge. Is like you did a show with Bob before March Madness, and like he to me is like the king of like that that overarching eye level angle that's so simple that when you hear it, you're like, how could I not have thought of that? Like it's just the easiest thing to understand and makes so much sense.

And I got so far away from that to where it's like I love hearing stuff like that when you have him on, because every time I listen, I feel so dumb because I'm like doing all this stuff and it doesn't matter. Like there's just such an easier answer to a lot of this. So that's kind of where I'm at this year, and it's made a big Adam. You probably weren't as bad as you were last year, and you're probably not as good as you are this year.

That's together thing. You're probably much closer to you not as good, you know what I mean, no question about it. Yeah, it's in football, not as much as I want to. I used to do it a lot with tennis, and I've not done a ton of it with football. But and now that I'm kind of slowing down as I get a little older, here the in play pop market that's starting to emerge. It's lower limit, I know, but there's some really advantageous prices coming up in NFL games

that are becoming intriguing. Speaking your language there, Ton, you love that absolutely. Yeah, I'm doing great on in game. I can't pick a winner of the NFL pre flop against Spread. Its just it's so so difficult this especially this year. I know we have guys that we love and respect. You're just having miserable seasons and I don't think any less of them. I'm just like, it's the NFL, man, like anybody who can destroy it like you are. Um,

all the power to you, man. Congratulations on success, Adam and Uh. I don't know if we'll get another chance to have you on this year because you do your podcast at the same time we do. But if we do get that opportunity, would love to have you Uh come back like you did a couple of times last year. It's the simple handicap podcast that you do daily. Do you still do that daily? I've stopped doing it Saturday mornings because it's just it's the first year I haven't

done Saturday mornings, but it's every other day. You did it seven days a week. I was thinking you did it five days a week, so now you just do it six days a week. It used to be a hundred and sixty days in a row for the first two years. So this year nobody downloaded it on Saturday because it's like a routine thing for a lot of

people because it's so short that stops Saturdays. It's about a fifteen minute podcast, ten to fifteen minutes something like that, fifteen or last Yeah, okay, so that should be that everybody can incorporate that into their day. And then the one that you do at covers you are the product manager at covers uh dot com. The one you do with Las Vegas Chris is called what Again The Cover's

Contest Countdowns. So it's times our youthtube channel every every Thursday, right as the lines come up, all right, uh, and Chris is we're gonna find out if he's still in the Last man Standing. Um, but he is obviously a multiple contest handicapping contest winner here in Las Vegas. So that's a must listen as well. Adam appreciate it, man. It's Adam Chernoff on Twitter. By the way, if you want to uh follow everything that Adam does. C H E R N O F F. Really appreciate you moving

stuff around and making the time man. We appreciate it. Under present, love what you guys do every week. We've been listening to the show for years and years, so to be a part of it fantastic and have a very happy Thanksgiving. Thank you you too, Happy Thanksgiving, well Canadian Thanksgiving last month, but you know we as I celebrated the same as the lifelong football man. There you go, it's a big day too. There you go for Mike Palm for Todd Wishnev kil Alexander. Thank you so much

for listening. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, Good luck with all your bets. We twelve in the National Football League. Another Bagnan Batag Dogtan Bamata BigMan Bata Bo