Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview

left the staples of the show. Let's begin with a gentleman to my left, the vice president of operations at Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and of course co host of odds on on the network, the Vega Stats and Information Network, co host with them all Shaw. Hopefully we'll join us for a future Begapod. It's Michael Palm. Good morning, Good morning Gil, Good morning Talk, Good morning Ed. I

thought that Brent Musburger was gonna be on. We've been looking forward to this for three weeks and then you texted Rent has moved, and I thought, who could Gil get to dampen this blow? Right, to lessen this blow? And it could really only be two people, either anything or Dr Bob. So you pulled it out and we got it. Yeah. By the way, I should also point out every week that you are also on the American Gaming Association Board of Directors. How was your trip to

DC in Iowa? Well, it was wonderful. You know. The hot topic, of course the sports wagering with the American Gaming Association. But you know what, what was the controversial subject of this board meeting was the over proliferation or over saturation of commercials for these different sports betting operations.

And like, we don't really get it here, Gil, but I guess in you know, in in the DC area, in Virginia, in Pennsylvania, and in New Jersey, it's like eleven out of twelve commercial you might know Todd, every other commercial Pittsburgh's Draft Kings, you met one dollar and you win two hundred. Oh. Remember that was the problem when Daily Fantasy hit, remember, and they cracked out over the place. Yeah, so we need to be a little more responsible maybe. And then you want to move back

to Iowa, I would love to. And that's a wonderful place to way. It hasn't changed in twenty two years since I left. I mean it's just beautiful, all right. Do you think you're I love their cheers. By the way, have you ever been to an Iowa basketball game, Gill. Here's the creativity of the cheer. It was like this, I oh, w let me guess when you know when the natives have so beautifully named your state where I messed with it, they can they can spell over there.

That's the voice of Todd Wish that from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Dad, thanks for doing it, as always wonder how how do I know that cheer? Because Iowa was playing at one of those tournaments called Vegas I went to and they started. There was a kind of Iowa fans they started doing the cheer and I was like, is this seriously the cheer? I was like, I was embarrassed from State. I have to tell you.

The Iwish State fans a little more creative. When when I was State scored their third touchdown of the third quarter against Texas, they all started channing sec sec. You know. I went to Tufts Division three college football powerhouse, and when we were getting beat by the Amherst Lord Jeff's, we used to derisively chant s a T, S A T. That was our way to get banks a little northeast northeast, northeast intellectual humor. That was that was the whole point

of the joke, Todd that it was ridiculous. Thanks for acting like you got one over on me, Todd, wishnev the reverse joke. Uh, Ed Vegas here, That's who we talked about earlier. That's what we were alluded to earlier. The the founder of the Power Rank uh and kind enough to join us each and every year. Now we can say that on the on the megapod, ed, what else are you went too these day? Is? I can never keep a track of it? Well, I mean, after Mike mentioned my name in the same sentences Bob stole,

my week can only go down from here. So I appreciate that. Appreciate that, Mike. I run the Power Rank dot Com. I write a weekly email, not a weekly I write an email newsletter with games that I've bet and uh sports betting tips and news. You can check that out at the Power Rank dot Com. I do the Football Analytics Show podcast and uh, I've been on football games. There you go, there you go. Cam Newton

just signing now, just coming over the wire. Cam Newton agrees to a deal with his former team, the Carolina Panthers, which is Matt Rules way of saying I'm not gonna I'm not gonna sit here with p J Walker the last half of this season and endure this with Sam Donald out three four weeks. I would be surprised if Cam Newton wasn't starting Sunday. I think he starts, and I think if he plays well, even when Sam Donald comes back, Cam Newton is your starter. Well he energized

that fan base. Yes he will, He absolutely will with his unique brand of I will fall forward for a two yards. He did that at Auburn up to a national championship. You know what I mean he did. He just leaned forward for three yards whenever he wanted to, better than what they have all the roster, that's for sure. I just feel bad for you guys in Vegas because on Tuesday night we had college basketball was back and there were so many in game options that are literally

you couldn't find the game. There was like hundreds of games in DraftKings and somebody's like calling me, Georgia Tech. I can't even find it because you have to think keep scrolling. It was unbelievable. Was a cornucopia buffet for college basketball? A corn ucopia buffet. I like it. Todd is into college basketball. Heaven. Okay, how do we start this again? Survivor? We go to Survivor. I lost, I'm out,

it's over. Are we done with Survivor? Talk now talk survival But the thing about it, we were trying this morning on a numbers game, mediocre first hour. By the way we were trying this, we were trying to to talk Survivor because we had a lots of there's tennis tea tennis tweets and then there's Survivor tweets. Those are the biggest theme tweets and the Survivor. It's like, at this point, you can't be like, well if you have this team available, right, So it's it's tough to talk

about at this point, this deeper to a season. It's very true because it said who would you use this week? I said, I don't know what the people have? So how do you know? The cults are gone on most of I mean, you're down to what you have left A mall now a mall Shaw, my partner on odds On, formally known as the Nuts, had two entries. He lost one of them. He has one left good. But of the top twelve teams in terms of record in the NFL. He's only used one on that entry so far, the Ravens,

So he's a pretty good shape. He's a great shape. That was me last year ranked never forget, never forget, as my parents were ranked third out and there was how many people left I forgot over a hundred. Yeah, so you didn't matter, Jared Goff Gilding. So I lost on the bills. My thinking was, I think the bills are a fraud. I'm going to use them now against Jacksonville and then everybody's gonna crap out with him later when they at least expected. Silly me? Was your only

other consideration the Steelers on Monday night? Really No. My other considerations were New Orleans who didn't trust correctly, Baltimore who were down for to trust him. I don't think I was wrong, and then Pittsburgh that used Tony Creanti staff to win that football game. I wasn't wrong about that either. He has got to be out. He's got to be out now, Todd, I know you were at the game. Has to be out. That was the most disgusting NFL football game I have ever witnessed in my life.

And I cannot stand people who say games are fixed or there should be an investigation and all that stuff. But that game was relentlessly bullshit like it was just it was do you but you're right, thank you? Okay, But that's what you do for good organizations, right, that's what for good organizations. When you're a great organization, people realize that and they want to win, and that's what ends up happening. And by the way, did I get luckier? What with my Steelers and must three and a half?

I had no chiefs in the middle the law hell broke lose it yet um one person didn't submit just one entry. That's the upset of the week. One person only one? How many left six eight, six, five h two out two weeks in a row plus eliminated man I said on on on Tuesday, excuse me Monday morning, I said. It's in an order of what is upsetting about getting crapped out in survivor losing your entry money

way down low. Third, we don't care about that money anymore. Second, not being able to win what you hoped to win at the end of the year, whether split or not. Second, but number one by far is just not being able to de guss it or have the mental gymnastics of Survivor every year. If I could take this team, but then this team has this game left, you know I could use them later. That's the sucky part to get get about being bounced out. And let me ask you

this question now in retrospect. If you hadn't had the carnage in week one, right with with the Vikings and the and the Falcons, Let's say you had four of your five left going, do you think you would have survived last week? No, I mean all of them. If you had four or five, you had five, correct, I had I had five? Yes, Let's say you had four going into last week. Would you maybe have used one on Baltimore, one on Pittsburgh or would you have gone all in with the Bills? But no, I would have

I would have split them out. But but my point with Survivor remains, and I doesn't matter that I'm out having multiple entries. Eventually you're going to lose all of them but the last one because you're playing them differently. So it's just a matter of time. You may have picked Baltimore in Pittsburgh, but you're you have a rabbit's foot stuck so far up your wrecked um it's not

even funny, right, So good for you. I'm glad, but you're going to lose those other remaining entries eventually, and by losing them later, here's the other compounding factor about having multiple entries. You aren't able to curate like a Mall's good that he has that one where it's curated. Well, that that's the one that didn't get knocked out. If his other one was remained, I wonder what it would be. So the later you go, the less control you have

over the one that survives. So oftentimes that's the other trick it plays on you. The more entries you have, the less control over you have over your last one, because it's a random which one gets knocked out at the end, if that makes sense. On a closing note here,

so we could move on. I just wanted to say that our friend um e yeah, who who is in everyone's estimation a thoughtful, reflective person and possible of changing his opinion, had so he had so hated the Thanksgiving Christmas right, but he would have used Dallas on multiple entries if not for Thanksgiving. Oh nice, so he said to me in a great moment of epiphany, on on on Sunday night. This is a wonderful, mysterious, complex puzzle. And I really appreciate those two three game windows. Now.

Now he loves and yeah, he's he takes things in and he's willing to admit where he's wrong. Oh yeah, sure, Todd. Is that the game? Okay, what's the what's the what's the records? How are we doing record wise here? Well, Julie Ice, funnily enough brings that up because he had a blockbuster week last week, got in with a youth fas state quarterback who couldn't prove the football whatsoever. Plus seven and a half there, That wasn't the wrong side,

check that wasn't the wrong side. They should have won, Mason crushing screws theme, they should even been behind in the right. Yeah, but Todd's gonna that's what he does. I'm not spinning anything you are here. I'm just saying that Jordan's Love is not a quarterback. As we said, New England got home with a very solid ncing win and also under forty six and a half in the Raiders. So you went three and zero, Gilly, you can't go

better than three and zero game? Yet you can't? Is that two consecutive weeks for you, twelve and fifteen for Gilly. Mikey went to and one with the Giants winning, were even losing, but then he bought me in the head the head Arizona San Francisco over. He got there with forty eight with Holden McCoy and I'm still not sure how that happened. And I had a horrendous beak at one and two winning the under in Houston the Steelers game, which I totally deserved if it wasn't the rest going

for the Bears and Arizona. What are the records now? I'm loving and sixteen, Mike is thirteen, thirteen and one, and Gilly is twelve and fifteen in second place in teasers, which is of course I'm still in first place at six and three, Mikey is it is five three and one? And Mike five and four's Todd Todd fixed fixure. Mike, we can't hear every word you're saying, So six and three for Todd five and what is it five one? And I'm privy and Mike is it five and four? Um?

And then Todd Todd is in the last place in the A T S. You've gained like four games on him in the last two weeks. You're in first place. You're the man to be today. I always say, if I can go five, it's a gig walk here, Okay, So let us be with Thursday night before we get the best bets. And I'm not sure. Maybe the Thursday night game is part of your best bets. It is the Ravens tonight all the way up to eight now

in favor of the Road Ravens at Miami. We still have a questionable tag on two to A Tago VLA, which is interesting because Brian floor Is on Tuesday said, yeah, the finger is still an issue. If the game was today, meaning Tuesday to A could not go, then yesterday to A slapped with a questionable tag, and so we don't know if it's Jacoby Brissette, We don't know if it's

too a Tago bywa. I don't know if that matters to you that it did a little bit in the betting market, because I think the news on two of this week kind of did make it go from six and a half through the seven to seven and a half. So it means it means not a negligible amount, it means something I guess to the market. But it's weird because if Jacoby Brissette starts tonight and let's say he gets hurt the first play two was the next guy up?

Are we to believe that the guy who couldn't play Tuesday all of a sudden would be a viable quarterback with that same finger tonight. I don't know. That was my first question. Does it the market? It did matter? Does it matter to you? Do you have any lay on this? I have? I have the Ravens and teasers? Yeah, me too. Yeah, I think they probably covered that. It's remarkable this hard boss that right, they've covered nine in

a row. He's nine and oh against Miami against the spread, the most games ever an NFL coach has not lost against the spread against the one single opponent. I did not know that, Todd, You have anything besides the teaser? Like, no, I think two is thinks, inset and fang from the Power Rank. Anything on this game tonight? Yeah. I like the Ravens. I love what Lamar Jackson's doing. I think

Miami is terrible. However, somehow my number only likes Ravens by three on the road here it's probably stay away from me, Um, you know, it's kind of the way the way I kind of adjust for QB injuries, look at what the market says about the players. But I actually have Miami with Preset better because the markets really adjusted on the whole team since two has been back to actually have Miami with Presett better than Miami with two, which doesn't make any sense. So it's a very confusing game.

From me, I think Baltimore is good. I think their defense is gonna better than we've seen. I think Miami stinks. So I thought I thought I thought Jacobe Brisett was better than this. I really he's like a statue. He can barely move. He was better than this with the Colt he was. I think the center being out to factor tonight too, because I think Baltimore will get there. I think Martindale will come with a lot of pressure tonight. And either quarterback is a mobile You know two is

not mobile either. You think of him as a running quarterback, he's not good at alluding to rush. Do you think this game will get so out of hand that you'll start watching Pitt at North Carolina? I was gonna already because I love the over seventy two there that never keeps dropping. I don't know why, but I like the over seventy two because there's the reason it's dropping is it's supposed to rain like crazy. Yeah, second hand chairs, who cares? Bad defense is bad defense with those over

machine they're like that stage. Yeah, Ed, Can I ask you a question, yeah, macro question, what van intage for home field do you give Miami and your number tonight? I mean, I'm using about one point eight for NFL this year. You know, the home teams are only against the spread so far through nine weeks, and I'm wondering if this adjustment down to one and a half or two is is it still it doesn't seem to be

worth much. Mike, did you see that thing where they said that in the turnover battle has been way in advantage for the roads. Seems so maybe a little bit of this is a little luck. Okay. I've heard some people say that what's home field advantage? You can't throw it out. It's not like it's not like all of us in the world has changed and it's easy for a team to travel from Baltimore to Miami and play, uh, you know, outside of the place that you normally play

there there's still something there. I haven't checked with the number is this year. I think it's really small. You have to include something. I mean, if you don't want to include one point eight like I'm having, you think it's a little bit lower. You know, it's actually home field advantage is actually negative to seasons ago, and that was before the pandemic. Fine, but you have to you have to do the home team something. I just says, because they're going grass to grass, so it's not an

unfamiliar surface. Do we think that Miami is going to be really loud tonight in this and I think it's been. The crowd will not really be a fact. So yeah, there's I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's it's it's mainly the travel though, right right, it isn't And so it's like that's why Seattle. Yeah, Seattle is good. They've been good historic late. Let's not talk about them now. But they are getting Russell Wilson back. We think he's a full participant today in their in their practice. But um, that's

what it really is. It's not the it's not the crowd. We think it's the crowd. It's the travel to get to Seattle that has been yeah, I think it's both right. I mean, there was some interesting working scorecasting about how rests uh impact home field had been engine You don't have to think much further than that Pittsburgh Chicago game on Monday night. My God, to see where with all those out we had him terrified. It's amazing. I went

off on this on on Tuesday morning. It was, you know, the the block below the waste that negated the touchdown pass was you know, no one from New York called down and said pick up that flag. No, just just walking back fifteen yards. And then two plays later, justin Fields gets roughed in a way that Big Ben would have had twenty five flags rained down on him. Not a call. They have to settle for a field goal. And then the then it was the Cassius marsh taunting.

That wasn't a taunting where he said nothing in the history of the nasal football. It is the worst in the history of the National It's worse than the Rams pass interference against the Saints in the in when there was lawsuits about the championship game. It is the worst blind by the way it helped. It hurt me at first, but it helped my team but still it was therd how can you there? Horrible? Horrible? I went ballistic, I went absolutely ballistic. And then Tony Currency does the hip check.

Uh he throws the flag. He like he held his hand up like he hit a three Bradley Beal style right. He He then in the in the pool and the reporter pool. Afterwards, Adam Hodge asked him, hey, was about that. He says, no, it had nothing to do with that. It was all about the taunting, even though the flag came out after the hip check. And what killed me

after that is that multiple people in mainstream media. I'm not gonna mention any names because I like some of them, but they were They were like, oh, well, the NFL is so thrilled that the Bears came back and scored stop saying that it was the most brain dead ship that everybody was saying afterwards. It completely changed the game. Chicago had to use two time out subsequent on that drive and Pittsburgh ended up with a field goal. It

changed everything that happened after that. I cannot stand when they protect the shield like that. It completely destroyed that football game. And by the way, if you were watching the broadcast, Brian Greasy, who will mention and I'm not talking about messing up on the crossbar thing, because I thought it hit the crossbar too. It did at optical illusion. But I don't you have to fight through it. He that's the thing. He excuse me with Steve Levy, It

wasn't Brian Greasy. Steve Levy should be able to watch the game. He shouldn't be looking at the monitor. He should see the ark of the ball. But Brian Greasy, when when the Bears tied it up at twenty six, says oh, and and then there was an advantage encroachment penalty on the Steelers. He goes, oh, the Bears have options now. It's like, what are you what are you

talking about? Uh? And then there was the other one where with forty seconds left, the Steelers are coming down for what was the game winning field goal forty seconds left. Big Ben thinks he's catching them with twelve men on the field, he spikes it. It was actually just eleven men, accorded Tony CNTI, who knows, and and Brian and Brian Greasy is like, oh, that's big Ben just thinking, just absolutely just thinking. He didn't need to look to the sidelines and do that he knew what he was doing.

Was like, no, he almost cost him the game because they had only one time the time. Anyway, by the way, is it Tony Granti. Is he related to Polly Walnuts or Christopher Multa. Tony Creni was was jnior high principle in California. But look, Tony Coarnti has lost his mind for two years now, and and because of his seniority, he's on every big game, He's on every primetime game, the Fox Game of the week. Do you remember January four, Bills at Texans, the bauchery and that wild card game?

How they they kicked? They kicked off the Texans to the Bills. The Bills receiver catches at eight yards deep in the end zone and tosses Coarnti the ball and he called a touchdown. Then he changed it to a safety. The alternate official who's there in case someone's injured, had to come over and tell him that's a touchback. They missed the delay of game by three seconds. They called that terrible blindside block and that I mean that game was totally mangled. I said at that point, Corintie can't

do any more playoff games. He has to retire at the end of the year, and he's in our face every week. Well that's because Christopher Maltasanti called him he needed he's terrible with erupting the past or two he's he's awful. They tackle around the waist and then he'll call they landed on him with Wade. I mean, he's just so bad and saying power Rake best bet number one, sir, what do you got? Yeah, well, hey, let's start out with Denver and uh so, I like, never mind half

right and half it? What's that? Did you say? Denver minus two and a half? Yeah, or whatever number I can get right now? But um yeah, this, you know, I bet this yesterday morning. You kind of looked like everyone was going to go to three starting to see some more too and a halfs Um. I don't believe in the Philadelphia Eagles. I bet the Charges last week minus one and a half. I was pretty sure that that was gonna go to minus two and a half. I was wrong. So somebody out there's betting the Eagles.

Uh and the Eagles are a team that my success rate numbers really hate, like despise thet on in passing offense. I want to look at a Justice success rate, the thirty one and past defense, and I think there's a little bit of hype on this team because Devanta Smith and Jalen Hurts looked pretty good in the second half against that charge Ters in that Chargers game. But essentially what I'm seeing is that they're breaking a lot of big plays and uh, that's unsustainable. Um, it's unsustainable. It's

gonna be unsustainable for the Eagles. When you look at Jalen Hurts's PF grades and a clean pocket, He's twenty three in the NFL. That tends to be the most stable metric his His great is much better when he's under pressure, which is which is unstable. So everything's pointing towards UH fading Philly for me. Um, it's not that I love Denver. The past defense has been good, but obviously I have a lot of concerns that Patrick stand is questionable and von Miller is no longer there. Kenny

Bridgewater has had a nice floor for their offense. I like that they get Jerry Judy back, but um, I like Denver minds. I like Denver in the spot Mike you like him to, I do too. I think that they'll able to run the ball. Um. You know, the Charges were able to run the ball in the second half. Philadelphia is bad. They're a bad defensive team. They're so simple, they're so vanilla on the fense. They're like what the Chargers used to be, where they've never changed their defense.

I think Fancio's defense is getting healthier. I mean, remember he lost every linebacker and went through the stretch where they I mean he lost his whole medal of his defense. And they keep getting healthier every week. And just think of the fact that Philadelphia lost by twenty at Dallas and Denver was up thirty to nothing on Dallas late in that game. I think Denver is much better and Philly has to travel and play at elevation. Why do thank you? Why do why do the supposed wise guys

above this Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles? I don't get it. What is that? I think they like that they like something about the line, like the period. They like the line. You said, they like the defensive office, the defensive offensive lines. I see, Todd, you're up. What do you number one, two or three? Number one? Number one from Wow, Todd, my number one is going to be the under in the Cleveland Ronnie against the New England Patriot. Why are you?

Why are you guys laughing? You play nothing but totally? Have you played one this year? But am I not allowed to play totally? How to do whatever you want? But we just asked the question. The question has has a closed answer to it. It's it's not an abate question. When was the last time there's a definite answer here? I mean, I can go back if you want. That's not really six and a half last week? Okay? Now, would you like to keep me the under forty five or forty five and a half? I don't want to

be a hazard. You tell me what I get. You get forty five and that half. Okay, I'll take the forty five and a half under Cleveland, New England forty five and a half. Um. I saw something last week made me think that the New England Patriots are getting there back together. Uh. This team looked like some of

the newly good New England teams in the past. I'm not thinking they're that team yet, but this run the ball first strategy where they just start pushing people around and good defense, I think they're onto something I've had them forty one to one to win the Super Bowl last at the end of last week. I'm not saying you're gonna win the Super Bowl. I'm just staying forty one to one is ridiculous. So I took the Patriots. I think they're gonna run the ball a lot against Cleveland.

I think Cleveland's gonna try to run the ball because is gonna be a slug him. You know, cold New England type weather, run the ball, played good defense type of ball game, And that's why I want to pay under forty five and a half. I think Belichick has

start to batten down the hatches. He's turning this even you know, he's molding this team into a winning running and defensive team, which you know, some of the Patriot teams were throwing around, like some of the teams were this run style with the defense, and I it looked really for good to the coast against Carolina. So I'm gonna go under forty five and a half Cleveland. Okay, I have a little trouble. You have a little trouble with about Todds. Mike is still in and out. Yeah,

still a little bit out. You know, I'm on the exact technology. I've been on the entire season. Yeah, I don't want to tell you. Okay, my number one pick is the Tennessee Titans. What do I get on that, todd what's my number Tennessee Titans. Uh, there's uh, there's minus threes and minus two and a halfs. I'll give you the minus two and even though mostly three. There you go. No, I mean, as long are there as many two and a halfs as threes are. The more threes,

it looks like there's a couple more threes. Okay, well, then it's a three. I'll take Tennessee minus three. I want to be fair about this. Um, listen, I I just did a second with this morning. Aaron Shots is gonna be in studio in a numbers game next week. Aaron Shots the founder of Football Outsiders. They have at Football Outsiders on d v o A, their proprietary stat where they ranked teams through which they ranked teams. He has Tennessee as the number four team team in the

National Football League. Now, a lot of that has to do with the fact that they're negative in terms of yards per play versus their opponents. Uh, and a lot of that has to do with well, most of that has to do with that, because they're one of those his worst seven and two teams in the history of d v o A. I appreciate that. Um, I respect what they happen. That's ridiculous, right, let me let me finish. I believe otherwise about the Tennessee Titans, I thank you.

I think that they are actually a sneaky um a team that sort of defies how football is played today by most teams. And yes, they don't have Derrick Henry, which is obviously the jury still out on it, because because what Derrick Henry did his presence is a sort of he sort of he sort of covers up for a subpar defense by by keeping the ball on the field and by by matriculating the ball down the field. They have a sort of get out of jail free

card with him. We'll see if that is sustainable. Obviously, that game against the Rams, the Titans got the two will really was one two yard interception that the two yard line, and the other was a pick six might as well have been to pick six is and that game got out of hand. But I think the Tennessee Titans are a team that is actually facing the easy part of their schedule. Now the difficult part is behind them. The schedule really works out for them. Now I think

they are going Are you ready for this? I think they're going to win the Super Bowl, which is I think they're going to win. Where do you rank the Titan right now? In your power rank? Number three? I have them five. I saw I saw a Football Outsider had fourteen. But the reason for that is because their negative yards per play. So but that's why we say a lot of this, a lot of these stats get moneyed up based on this. Aaron is very He's very

clear about why his rankings are where they are. So like the Niners in his rankings and at Football Outsiders are ninth. The San Francisco forty Niners are ninth. And the reason the Niners are ninth is because, first of all, their year long ranking, so it doesn't capture the fact that they were playing Colt McCoy and not Kyler Murray last That's the first thing. But other beyond that, the

Niners fumble luck has been horrific. And about their interception luck, well, I'm just saying their their fumble luck is so poor that it factors in anyway. I don't think they should be nine. I'm just explaining why certain things are what they are, and the average football fan looks at the ranking and goes, oh, this is ship. This is the most ridiculous thing. But there's a reason for all of it. Um, Alvin Camara is questionable? What about Frabel is a great coach.

As far as this game. Alvin Camara missed the Saints practice yesterday. I think he is everything to the New Orleans Saints. He is their entire offense. I've watched Saints games and I just sort of casually say they should give him the ball every single play. Uh, if he is unable to go, this line is a gift and I am taking that gift. Tennessee minus three. And what do you do about about like dirty statistics? Like give

me an example that Jets game? There wasn't one statistic in that dirty Jets Gamesmia, How do you fix that into the model? I mean, you know my model. I mean I kind of agree with some of the stuff that you're saying. Uh, I don't know how do you fix it? I mean my answer usually is just trying to focus on success rate. Like the work I did this offseason shows that's that's the most predictive in season. Uh that statistics that you can possibly get more than

EPA for play more than yards past attempt. So I try to stick with that. That's a huge part of my anality. Success rate for for everybody to define, sorry my apologies. A success on a play for an offense is if you get of the yards to the next first down on first down, second down, and all on third, fourth down. Okay, So, for instance, in that Jets game, they were playing so soft on the Jets and they were just letting the Jets go right down the field.

Do you make the adjustments for the fact that the game was out of hand, the defensive Indianapolis was not trying. Do you do anything to take that the fact that they're gonna have all the success rate that they wouldn't otherwise would have had the team not been a blowout. I mean you can do that. I don't, partially because Indianapolis came back and almost covered in that game. Um, I'm sorry, the Jets almost came back and covered in

that game. Uh, this was a game in which Carson Wentz was actually we got there was the good Carson Wentz as opposed to the bad Carson wentz. We saw the week before. Uh you know, I have Jets. Uh so part of that game. That's a good question. So the Jets for passing success rate, that's that's above NFL average. NFL averages about four six percent. Indianapolis was great at six. Like I said, one of the Colt's best game. You could obviously, uh you know, filter out a little bit

of garbage time. I honestly think that matters, like that whole entire game matters because it kind of shows you how crap the Colts defense is that. You think the Colts defense really this is that bad or they were just playing soft because they were up by a million. I think the bad. I think they're really bad, Bill, What do you think? I don't. I don't think the Cults were in that huge of a prevent I really don't, Okay.

I to me, it looked like they were they were ahead by so much they didn't care and they were just letting people right now. Maybe I'm wrong. I've seen a lot of games like that where they just you know, it goes prevent the whole second half, and oh maybe it's not prevent, but it's soft. Maybe soft, maybe soft, but it didn't. It wasn't full on prevent for sure. At number two, let's go with Cleveland at New England. UM, let me just get out there and say this. I

don't think God j matters at all. If you look at yards per route, which is the what I'm looking at to look at receivers, it has dropped every year since his last year with the New York Giants, through all of his years in Cleveland. Part of that is injuries. Part of that is that Baker Mayfield won't throw to him. No, I'm kidding about that last one. UM, but he's not He's not a good receivers. He's not an a elite receiver. Someone's gonna sign him. We're going to see if he

can actually do something with someone else. I personally don't think he matters. I don't think he matters. Is Cleveland offense and uh, David Joke has been great at the tight end position. Donovan Peoples Jones has been kind of a revelation. I live here in ann Arbor. I never thought he was that good at college in Michigan. I thought he looked slow for a guy that was supposed to be a speed burner. But he's getting done at the NFL level, and he's been He's been quite an

asset for this team. I think last time, Gil, when when I was out in Vegas and we talked, I think I mentioned that I liked uh Cleveland under ten and a half wins. I feel like I've been really I've been wrong about that. Uh. The underlying metrics really do like this Cleveland team, both in terms of past offense and past defense. In terms of adjusted success rate, they've been great. I think the aspect that I didn't

see was the defense. I think the defense had potential with Biles Garrett and Denzel Ward two two pretty solid building blocks, but they were bottom five in the NFL last year in past defense. There there at least top ten this year. When I look at adjusted passing success rate, and I think this is a good time to buy on Cleveland. I think they're a pretty good football team

with New England. Their defense has been pretty good, but they're still uh, they're still struggling on the offensive the side of the ball with a rookie quarterback, you know they're not They're not taking a ton of a ton of chances. They are twenty when I look at adjusted success rate and I just think Cleveland's a better team.

There's there's no metric that I look at. I look at a variety of metrics to make my numbers, and they all favor Cleveland and so uh and and from what I've seen of them, I think I don't see New England as a as a favorite in this game at all. So I took what I think I got Cleveland plus two when I bet it. I think there's a lot of one halfs out there that you get two and a half. Now, oh yeah, two and a

half great, So it's actually moved, asked me. But I do think I do think that numbers come back unless Baker doesn't player or something crazy like that. Okay, Mikey number two, Todd, what do you have on the Panther and Cardinal? I have some ten and a half and forty four is pretty much the most common r l A the ten and a half here. I think this Carolina team is the Houston Texans. Wow, I think they're

that bad. I think that that that no quarterback play and the defense is okay, not great, But I mean I I don't see a better comp to the Texans right now than Carolina, and we saw Arizona play a very poor game against the Texans and still cover eighteen and a half in that game when it pulled away in the second half, and they did everything they could to keep Houston in the game in the first half, they couldn't take advantage of it. I don't know where

where the Panthers get their points. It's six at home last week, now they go on the road. The Arizona defense has been very good at advanced Joseph uh And and I think if they get to ten, they'll be lucky. You think Cam Newton starts on Sunday, even if he does, Even if even if he does, you see him having a big game Caroline as a must pay Yes, right, yeah, the ten and a half, it's probably gonna be it's

probably gonna be twenty. It's gonna be seventeen predictions. So if you can get you know, seven, might as well. And we don't We don't know if it's Kyler Murray or Cole McCoy. McCoy did okay, they didn't think Kingsbury did a good job getting him in rhythm early and getting him some easy passes and he was fine. Cliff Kingsbury, the new short shot to the Coach of the Year. Yeah, that's that's a risky bet, though, isn't it. How about how about Mike McCarthy lasting one week as he yet?

How about Bill Belichick? Oh he's a good bet, right, isn't he a good bet because the people people vote for him if they would make the playoffs? Yeah? I mean he took this team and they prove every week. I'm sorry. That doesn't mean you can't cover with Cleveland, but I mean New England has been improved. If they win that, if they don't give up twenty four yards on on on third and against the Cowboys, I think we're looking at them totally differently. They should be on

a nice little run. Here, God, what's your second one? My second one, I'll give you the I'll give you the A side that I'm gonna we go to them into it. Yeah, well that was gonna be my third day. But I'll take I'll give you that one right now. The Rams minus four at the Niners. I got Monday Nights football. I do not the Niners team. I don't care. I'm shocked to hear that that the math people think that the Niners are the ninth best team. The Niners

are not good folks. Jimmy Garoppolo is shaky as shaky can be. That guy throws four balls up into Dangerville and then and the defense guy like hits them right now hands and it's not I mean, give me a break already with this Gimmy Garoppolo. This guy is not ready. But I don't know what happened to this guy. He's not good anymore. And you know what, he always used to get lucky with the guys up. Now it's happen. I don't like this Niners at all. Let both McCoy

just run all over you. That's embarrassing, know what I'm with? The Ram Ram look terrible on a Sunday I football. He's got to come back and show that they're they're seriously. I think they're ready to open Anna will Best on the Diner. I'm totally I cannot listen more than the Niners. I think Todd said he couldnot disagree more that the Niners are ranked nine. You can't believe the math people. I can't believe the math people. I can't believe what

can you believe it? That their ninth best? I explain to you why I'm just I'm not I'm not endorsing if they're just telling you what it is why they are there. Do you think they're the ninth best steven football. I'm more concerned about your stereotyping. I think get painting with broadbrush. I think find math people. You're a mathist talking about I love math people. I'm a math person myself. I don't like dirty number and they dirty up numbers

and they don't fix them. But you and I tried to give one example, like the Jets keeping and Gilly shot me down and said they weren't in the pre event. Okay, fine, I'm telling you the numbers cannot be always right the way they do them. Okay, need to fix it up. Let me just say this though. You go ahead, Yeah,

let me jump in real quick like. So, I run some one set of metrics that's just data based on this year, which should give you some You know that that's not everything that goes in my number, because I do keep a preseason prior and I have some market data as well, but I data this year. I have the Niners nine, and part of it is I thought it was somebody else. Every math person has a ninth tied every math person. I didn't know it. Look, let's

let's put the some perspective though, Like I can understand. Look, Jimmy g and the offense has been bad, they're eighteenth in my passing success rate. The defense has been good. They've been third uh this season, which I just think is unsustainable. You know, you lose Jason Verett the first game of the season. You kind of had a Hodgepodge back there in the secondary. And we know that defense is not as predictive as offense, and so you can expect that. I expect that number to address. So are

they the ninth best team in the NFL? Now? So I think there's some nuance fair. You're a reasonable math guy. That's why I like you, ed. You're not like a lot of these guys who go to the end of the earth with their numbers. You know, they're not the ninth And you just said it, who are those best team? Like that? And and I think there's actually a good reason for that, because past offense is more predictive than past defense. Those are the two most important things, and

you lose your best corner. It's hard. It's hard to be a top five defense that way. Right, So look and includely, they put these numbers up with only one game from their best corner, right, and so they're doing something right. But I just don't think it's this name. But Todd, you're falling. You're falling into the same trap as the as the most dunderhead person who immediately their brain because someone does things by analytics that they only

care about analytics. No, we have a reasonable person in ed thing. We have a reasonable person in Aaron Shots. I gave you the reasons why in their rankings they were number nine. Right. By the way, the fumble luck is pretty off the charts. Let me just say this, They've recovered only four of eleven fumbles on offense and only three of fifteen on defense. Right, So that's someone that he already know. It doesn't factor in the Kyler

Murray less game. You already said that, go ahead. Yes, So so the one the one aspect of the that ninth that I was telling you about is the points based metrics. And when I just look at that, this is the first thing I ever did about a decade ago with my team rankings that are essentially marginal victory adjusted for schedule. The Niners are twenty first by that metric,

like that's baked into that ninth. So they're actually compensating for that with with us uh you know strength basically on past defense um and uh so yeah, so that's all baked in there. From my perspective, Yeah, still think ninth that's too high. I'm not trying to be a Neanderthal and say oh math is always wrong. I'm for math. I'm just saying that sometimes I think the math gets out over at ease and in this scenario, I just don't see how the Niners can be who's kind of

leven t um. I will well, Tennessee is four. As I mentioned, I'll take Tennessee over the Niners. Keep going, you can do that, you're out. But but Todd, you what I'm saying you're doing and we'll leave it at this. What I'm saying you're doing is you are immediately you know you're immediately going to Oh the analytics people, they they're just math and nerds. They don't watch him. They probably watch more than you do. Right, they forgot you

watch more than everybody. But the bath people have lives to say. He might have the right. Let me finish last year when the Bucks. The Buccaneers were seven and five. Aaron had them ranked fourth in his d v O A and everybody laughed at him. Everybody did he had him higher than anybody else, and who ended up being right? So I guess what I'm saying is it's the old Dean Oliver quote. The stats guy who's do NBA at

ESPN maybe still does that? Are I see one game better than everybody, than than analytics, but analytics sees every game and we don't. Can I just say this? Then? Yeah, I say that Niners are probably better than what people think they are, but they're still not ninth. That's that's that's fair to me that, But that's I guess right. The ninth thing throws people off. And there's there's an

explanation and he explains why. But yes, people immediately when they see rankings their heads explode because it doesn't make sense. They're so they're telling us that the Niners are really better than they look. And I can agree with that. I sree that the Niners are better than they look, But are they nine? I'm sorry You've got a bridge too far. That's all. That's fair enough, fair enough, Todd, what you are is You're not an anti math person,

You're an anti model person. He's an anti person. Yeah, I don't like dirty. Could you be against math? I mean, I'm like, I hate sciences, like careful territory. There, Tennessee was up huge against the Rams last week. In the third quarter, I've been under the third quarter because you can see they were gonna let him throw underneath every single town and just run. My thought, the strategy has so much to do in football that I just think that the numbers get that's not much easier. Yes, and

I'm not endorsing what I'm not endorsing. I'm just reporting to you why they are what they are. And it is reporting to you why they are what they are. This isn't an attack on ED. I love it. I feel like it's an attack on it. What ED is to you know, Todd, what ED is to modelers, What ED is to modelers you are to antidotalists. I mean a story that makes your point for everything. Everything. At the beginning of the show, I'm making a joke about how stupid we were at him. There turns it ya,

you really got him there? Do you know what that means? I'm the only one pronouncing it correctly. Alright, ed. Two, I'm on the even get the format of your show right once every week? I do too many shows. Why you're here, Todd to keep us Okay, I'm on the I'm on. I hate to say this, but I'm on the Las Vegas Raiders. This was the line that I did not understand when it came out. Um, and let me just say, Pro Football Focus has Kansas City as

the number three team in the National Football League. I even't talked to Dr Eric Eager as to why, but I'm sure there's a reason. Maybe it has priors. I don't know, but the Kansas City Chiefs team that I see sucks at football currently, even in victory over the Giants on Monday Night, even in their win over the Jordan Love led Packers, they are just a impatient, bad football team. And the number three. I don't care what you say. Say it's not me. I'm just reporting. Who

was Pro Football Focus? Have you heard of him? So? Um, I'm on the Raiders. When we did guessing lines on Monday with Chrissy, my line guesses were pretty much like dead on on most of these. And then we got to this game and I'm like Raiders by two and a half, and he's like Chiefs by two and what. And I know the Raiders have all this unquantifiable swirl

that happens Gruden Rugs. Now, by the way, you say the Damon our Nett thing, that Damon Arnett, who was the other first round draft pick they had in I believe in what the same year is Henry Ruggs, who they overdrafted, by the way, shouldn't have been picked that high. He was involved in something. He brandished firearms and made threats, so goodbye to him. That's pretty wrong. I'm told that's wrong.

So uh, every week it's it's something. And obviously I don't want to make light of the Rugs thing because poor innocent woman died. But it's just awful, just awful what's going around. But they're still better on the football field, even what happened with him last week against the Giants than the Chiefs are. So I'm I just have to take the number. I'm taking the points. I'm taking the Raiders. You know, I had the Giants on the show last week and in life, yeah, I got lucky. I mean,

they didn't do anything offensively. That was the game they play solid defense. The Giants they hang around and they play my jo John Fox football. That's what they at number three. Um, so I'm I'm going against the Colts. Talked about why my numbers didn't like them earlier in the show. So the past offense is when I look at my justice success rate, that's significantly higher after the game against the Jets last week. Uh, Carson Wentz was

a good Carson Wentz. He's not gonna play like that every week, and and the past defense is just terrible. Their thirty. When I look at adjusted passing success rate, obviously you throw up a little bit in your mouth when you bet on Urban Meyer and the Jags. But this number is a ten and a half. I'm in I'm in a place where I'm where I'm fading the Colts. So I will take Jags plus ten and a half. But you also think back that game. I think ten ten and a half was the number last week against

the Jets when they started Mike White. Basically everything went that wrong for the Jets in that game and they still almost covered. So, um, I'm I'm going against the Colts here. Okay, but how would you like to go through life? Notice, so there's good Carson Wentz, the bad Carsonarts feel like there's good Mike Palm, there's bad Mike Palm. You know, sometimes he brings it and then you say things like Matt Stafford went full Carson Wentz. That's right,

he did go full Carson wet legs. He totally went full Carson Wentz. Like it's the titles that is the man's legacy. Uh, Todd, let's go Todd this time, because Todd gets he complains that, he complains. If there's no complains, I just want to say, if you think the Kansas City Chiefs, I don't. I'm betting against it. Does think the Kansas City Chiefs are the third best. Sorry, that's that's that went into the modeling is incorrect. You have to put put and put in and get good output out.

They put something in their incorrect. But but look here, it's it's called the preseason prior. The prior is still in there, and without a prior, there's no way you can make the Kansas City Chiefs a two and a half point favorite in the markets at Las Vegas. Like a team that's been pretty decent this year. The priors in there. That's why that that's why that she are still considered highly. The idea is that they're going to figure it out. The defense has been terrible, and we'll

regress to league average where it should be. Um that that's the thinking, and the only way you can make Kansas City a favorite at Las Vegas is to consider that prior. And it's also because people love to bet on them, and that's why they never cover. I mean, they don't never cover, but but I guess my point is this, like the markets are agreeing with Kansas City being a lot higher than you think they are, because

that's the only way you can make this number. Well. Again, I didn't say they they aren't better than people think. I just don't think the third. That's all third a little again out over their skis. They may be better than people think, they're not third. That's all I'm trying to say. Is that's so controversial. Do you think there's third? No, it's not. I don't think I I put them at the bottom of the top ten. But you're you're like straw manning us. None of us believe they're the third.

A little too much pushback on that, particularly, I know you were rude to Dr Bob that one time a doctor doctor, I wasn't talking about head. I'm talking about he said. Pro Football Focus made the number. Now, how messing with you? Todd? See how that here's a serious question. How can pro sensitive I'm very sensitive. Can Pro Football Focus think their third when they say they have the most overrated wide receiver in the I mean the people

on this network? Quoting that there are people on this network. He will not say his name. And by the way, I appreciate ed for taking the time to be patient and explaining to me why the math is saying what it's saying. And I happen to like he. All I want to say is I don't think the teaching from the three. And now I give my third, please, and it's gonna be a total. To Mikey, you can go to hell. Now. I would like my total to be the Jets over the Jets over forty seven or forty

seven and a half. Do you guys help me? Jets for the record, gil moaned, first, when you gave the first total before I did, I was right behind, making it like it was all me, but like the pile on before, so you deserve you know, I played a power Forty seven and a half is your number, Okay, So I'm going over in the Jets Bills game forty seven and a half. And here's why I think that the Jets. This Mike White guy is not that bad.

I really don't know even the even the other backup was in there last week, the guy who's been on five teams, and he was throwing it around. And maybe the problem was Zach Wilson the whole time. Maybe these other guys are Maybe the rest of the team is not that bad, and it was just a rookie quarterback that was folding them back. And now you put in some guys who could sling the ball around, and all

of a sudden, the Jets that have them offense. I really liked what I saw from them offensively, even in garbage time against the Pole. I like what Mike White did obviously against the Bengals. I like Mike White at Western Kentucky. Um. You know, maybe he's like a poor man's group Brees or something, but I like Mike White. And the other thing is the Bills all look so bad the last two weeks offensively. I just can't imagine they're going to have a third stink offense where they

can't move the ball. A third week in row, I think that Bills are gonna move to football. I think the Jets are gonna move the football. And that's why I'm gonna go over the forty seven and a half. And maybe it's a garbage time game where I get it kind of Jets points late like bo. But anyways, I like over Mikey Falcon. Give me Falcon, this cowboy team. I really questioned them and won their defense. Um, they

have to create turnover. If they don't create turnovers there as bad as they were, Okay, if they didn't create turnover against the Broncos, you saw that. I think the Falcons are starting to figure it out. I think Arthur Smith take him a little while to get his feet under him. First year head coach, a lot more responsibilities than just being an o C. But I'm really troubled by this year. Ree Jones comment that he's going over

the game plan on Sunday Mornings with McCarthy. Then he knew what they were gonna gave him whatever Denver was gonna do. And again, I mean, this is a remarkable what's going on there? Who's running that he so he said it like and he was blaming his play. He was coach. I mean, he said, I went over nothing should have surprised, and I ran it went over what I mean? On Sunday morning. On Sunday morning, he's meeting one.

I was he meeting with Parcels to go through the game plans on Sunday probably he was meeting with Jason Garrett though, uh and doing this stuff. I think this team is going to come back to Earth. I wouldn't be surprised if once again they blew this game at home and the Falcons won this game. My nine and a half forgetting Thank you Todd, my Cowboys, my best Cowboys fan friend, my buddy first quarter, second quarter, I can't remember what it was he tested. He goes, I'm leaving.

I can't. I can't stand this. He goes, this is so typical that they think they're better than they are and they show up for a game and produced they always do this. I do think there's there's also this thing in the NFL right because of the fourth down Mr Gas this year, which I think is largely the right way to play football, right, But I think from a betting standpoint now that teams are more willing, at least Brandon Staley, right, let's take him as an example.

You're more willing to lose a game by a hundred now going for fourth downs in in situations, you know, in this modern day football than you used to be. And so some of these games are going to get out of hand in a way that they didn't used to. And I think the Dallas game is a pretty good example of that. They went forward on fourth down on like four or five different occasions and they came up empty. Uh. There was even the Denver fourth down where they blocked

a punt and then they touched it. I mean they had bad luck too. So that game probably in the year twenty eighteen, is not thirty to sixteen, right, It's a much closer game. They still might lose. I'm not saying they don't, but I think for betters, we have to be aware that some of these games are going to be done by halftime. Somebody tell Kyle Shan this

is the way football is being played now. He went for one down by down by eighteen, and then he punched from the thirty nine down to down by seventeen in the in the in the fourth said that the best fourth down call this week was Brandon's Daley going forward on fourth and short in a tie game under two minutes because he knew Dustin Hopkins would have a

shorter field goal. And the worst was that one Kyle Shanahan down seventeen points early in the fourth quarter at the plus thirty nine points, I was surprised Tomlin tried a fifty two yard or only up by three there in that scenario. Was also that was kind of weird, by the way, just to say something about that Dallas game, because I had I had three college money line far life hide with the Cowboys, and as soon as I saw Denver get the head and started there was the thing.

They were running it on the Cowboys. They were dashing, and that was very concerning. I saw Denver started dashing runt. I immediately took Denver to get off my pets because I was like, cowboys can't come back and they're gonna give up all this running. It was ridiculous. How so, Mike, I'm kind of with you. I was very shocked at the cowboys. We're getting run on that. Well, I see you Atlanta, and I raise you Detroit. I'm going with

the Lions. I know, I know. Um listen, they have extra rest, they're coming off of by Pittsburgh has short rest. They're coming off the Tony CORENZI game on Monday night. The spread is eight nine. What is it, Todd? What

do you nine? If the Detroit Lions cannot cover nine in this situation extra rest versus short rest against a horrible Pittsburgh Steelers team, then then you know what in a horrible and a horrible organization, it should be pointed out, we're a great organization where I thought you have eat, We're a great organization led by the Rudey's buddy and youns don't know what are talking about Detroit. I will be okay to lose this because tip of the cap to the Steelers so they can cover this game. This

is the perfect situation for the Lions to cover this number. Uh. Jared Goff is the most frustrating human being to have a bet with. Believe me, I've been on that so I know. But I do think Detroit is good enough to to cover this, and begrudgingly I make them my third best bet. I kind of agree with you, Billie. The Steelers can't anyone by margin are not an offense. And you you groaned openly you hate that play. No, I don't. I don't hate the play. I think it

is the right side. But there's a reason I didn't bet it, and that's because I think the lines are terrible. Like, yes, I believe they have maybe the historically the worst secondary the NFL has ever had. Oh so, so you brought up it's interesting for me to think about that. Jeffriel Kudo was obviously came in the third or fourth pick or wherever he was, and it was terrible last year. Gets hurt um and that was like I thought that I thought their secondary was terrible coming into this season

with him. Okuda was on that two thousand nineteen Ohio State team that had Damon Arnette who just got released, that had Sean Wade who kind of fell off played at State last year and and really fell down the draft boards. Um, those guys lad like one of history's best college football is like best past defenses. That was what really propelled that team. Obviously had justin fields too, and um, and all those guys are just terrible. I can't.

I think it just kind of goes to show just how pickle past defenses, right, Like, these guys came in so highly touted. Find Arnett was a little bit over overrated as a first round pick, but he would have gone at least in the top three rounds. A ton of success in Ohio State last year, and none of them have been able to reproduce that year. Who was the DC was Sho the DC that year? Ed? No, it was the guy that went it was Jeff Hafley was also also hasn't been able to create a good

defensive DC since he left those guys at Ohio State. Yeah, they also with with corners in the NFL, you can go from I mean again, not to bring up Aaron again, but Aaron shots. I remember Dangelo Hall when he played with Washington. D'Angelo Hall would go from being like a bottom ten corner one year to a top ten rated corner and then back again the following year. So it's

very fickle even in league himself, all Rightah know. And Casey Hayward was struggled with Tennessee last year, but it's been good for his career and is making a big difference in Las Vegas. Let's go to UH teaser of the week, Mikey let's start with you, okay, I like before Hugh, Oh you want to talk? I can't, and the game makes an gonna work, all right? Um? I like Ravens down, Ravens down to two, and then I'm going to take the the Vikings up to nine, Vikings

up to nine and a half, okay, and Vikings to nine? Todd? Is that correct? Yes? Okay, thank you Kings at the Chargers. Ed. What is your two leg six point teaser of the week? Yeah, you know, I'll say Baltimore, Baltimore too, through through those two key numbers and then Denver is what No? Wait, is that the opposite way through the zero zero? I think I want my Browns. Uh, I want that Browns

Baltimore and the half Todd Dodd un. I'm gonna go with the Los Angeles Raides because I don't think the Chiefs can beat anybody by eight and a half, especially because even they're a head late. Don't give up backward touching they and I'm gonna take the Ravens minus one. That's my teaser, my teaser, Ravens Raiders, that's exactly my teaser. That's exactly in my account, all right, final, that's why I mean, and you were in first and second place by a game and by a half game. Okay, let's

say all perspective. All that matters is who's we're gonna win the straight up for three streets? Shouldn't we have a prize? Shouldn't we have a prize at the end of this, like a steak dinner. Someone should pay for steak dinner for all three of us. By the way, I would love to do that, except now I'm gonna need adds that I'm I'm down by a couple of seats, so I feel like I should get too steak dinners for everyone. About all the steak dinners you've already been gotten?

I don't get it? How many times I don't get it? What about that many times STA dinner? That? How about that whoever loses it the against the spread asked to buy the other two guys a steak dinner. There you go, the go and has to travel to wherever they are. Not the teaser part, just the exaentst the spread part. The teaser is its own feel and the and the other one is its own Each one is a steak dinner. Okay, uh,

that's beautiful. Final two questions. Final two questions, Ed will start with you, which is the big favorite and there's a lot of them most likely to lose outright? Baltimore seven and a half point favorites, that's a night at Miami. Uh Indianapolis ten and a half point favorites at home against Jacksonville. Dallas nine and a half point favorites at home against Atlanta, Buffalo, I hate you Buffalo Bills twelve point favorites on the road against the Jets. Watch him

win by a thousand this week? Those bastards Tampa Bay nine and a half point favorites on the road at Washington. Pittsburgh eight point favorites at home against Detroit, Arizona. God, there's a lot ten and a half or ten, let's call it home favorites against Carolina and then clear and that's it. Those are the Those are the Steelers. You're not first, Ed, who's the one? I think you didn't mention the Colts there? Right? Yes? Yeah, so I'm gonna

go against the Colts. Carson Wentz those full Carson Wentz uh and uh urban Meyer gets on his second second win, second, yeah, no, third, third, you see you know why because he won't last. That's right there, knowing about that ghost. Yeah, wow, Todd, do you say Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers are right for danger. I mean the offense is not that good. Are our defense is good? But you can be you can run

on him. I mean, justin Fields drives the length of the field to take the lead against the great defense. That doesn't sound right to me. Does that sentence sound right? When you justin Fields drive the length of the field. The story against you right? Just passing yards in the first half. Well, the same thing happening at Seattle. Steelers were head quarteen nothing in the first half and they let Geno Smith come back on the well another guy who's not that good too. I think the Steelers could

get upset Cowboys again. I'm with Todd. I'm gonna go with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who I think are right for the picking. And if I were in Survivor this week, if I had gotten by with the Bills, it would have been a choice for me between the Ravens and the Steelers, because I had used all the others pretty much, and I would have gone Ravens. I would go Ravens tonight. I do not trust the Steelers didn't trust them last week. I can't trust the Spellers. No, I can't trust them.

I can't trust that organization. Um No, it's agreed organization. You have the best organization football, the Rudies. Man, We're not like that, Dan Snyder not. Then get those emails out. We want to see what that guy said. I did too. Believe me. I want amount for more than life itself. All right, last question, Now, you had to bet one of these games. There's uh, I think there's four teams on buys, four teams this week. Um, you had to bet a side and each and every one of these games.

But you had one free pass one game where you want to know part of on the side. That is a ridiculous game to even think about betting ed? What game would that be? Oh? Man, you know I'm gonna stay away from line Steelers, so I can't. I think the lines are the right side. But I can't get a team that I think is is that terrible? I ethically that like the worst? Probably, and and I was I think I forgot to mention when I went off. Their secondary is terrible. Probably the worst receiving corps in

the NFL too. Probably, Yeah, I think golf's been fine. But yeah, I'm i'm, i'm, I'm uninterested in acting. Mikey, I really don't want any part of the Browns and Patriots. I don't know. I think we find out a lot about both teams this week. That's a good call, Todd. I don't want any part of the Seattle against Green Bay Packers game with what quarterbacks are playing and who's playing and what's going on over there, and you know what.

One other thing I want to mention, which I don't think I've mentioned yet, Jordan's love was not good at Utah State. Thank you, thank you for repeating what I said. Oh to try it, Mike, you try it. I guess whatever. I think the game that I want no part of on the spread would be jackson Ville Indiannapolis. I could see that going any which way. Any Naples could crush jackson moved cover. I don't know. There's about seven I

could have picked. That's the NFL ED thank you, the Power rank ed fingh, the Power ranked out com dot com. That's the power rank, not just power rank correct the power rankings. Thank you so much for having chiefs on Power Rank. Do you really want to know I booked this up when you were going on your tirade. You really want to know it's either second or fourth because the math people can't be too far off. I'm going

to explode in a minute a second. I've to say my numbers like the chief I've got the Chiefs the last couple of han't it's awesome numbers like him again this week, I haven't made a month. Uh. We can't hear you, toad again. It's all right, he says he can't even deal. You can't even speak about it, all right. Uh, and appreciated man as always proffing profiting p R O F E n G on YouTube. Yes that's my son, not me, but promoting your son. His son is not standing,

has got to be better than the Chiefs ranking. Uh. For Mikey Paum, who's got to go do odds on. That's why we gotta get out of here, because he does the show with them all for everyone. Wow. And DoD Wishnef from his mom's cork addic throwing shots from his mom's cork adic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thanks so much for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week ten and beyond in the National Football League,