Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Divisional Round Preview

show that's coming up real quick? We cannot talk about time, okay, because the visa and people didn't tell the people who would affects when they're gonna tell a person he's going from days to swing that they might want to tell him before the day before. Should I have not brought that up? It's okay, you could say it's not the time slide. Okay, Well you'll have your own show. We'll have a show with the Mall Shaw you will go that will air Monday through. What is it called? Well,

I'll tell you right now. The working title is the Nuts in U t Z I like it? Uh poker reference it is um Derek wanted odds odds on with Mike and am All, but Bill said, you can't protect that anything with odds in it. Yeah, Bill wanted the playbook, but I think that ignores them all. My personal favorite is the Mayor and the Mumbai. But they said it's a little risk, gay little risk. That's a really interesting choice you got there for co host My kind of interesting.

Oh that that voice is the other stable of the show, Todd wishneb who feels as though he got snubbed. Did Hashem get you again? Todd? Is this a Schem's fault? By the way, For the gentiles listening again, Hashem what what renounced? Orthodox Jews like Todd referred to as God? My parents who are Israelian, do not use that. I cannot say God. Isn't it yahweh? Oh? No? No? What is yahweh? We say Yawei? I know that's something. Yeah, that's though. It's something Hashim the name, by the way,

literally Zella what our rotatings. As Aaron Schott said when he famously came on this program, he goes, it's gonna take me a little while to get used to the rhythm of the rhythm of the show. Right, it's for our offensive lineman who, for the better part of a decade, played for five different teams in the National Football League. Uh, and he's been kind enough to come on a Numbers game now on the megapod. Played for Panthers, Vikings, Chiefs, Giants,

and Lions. Brother Mitchell plays with Kansas City Chiefs. Is Jeff Schwartz. Everybody, how you doing, Jeff? I am good. I feel like I fitted right away. Another another Jew on the podcast, and we're very close to him, Minion. So it's good to go. You are a true member of the leaflet. You are. This is the first time we've ever had a legit guy on the leaflet. By the way, Jeff also has UH. He works for Serious Does Things with Fox Sports. Has two podcasts. Uh. Jeff

Schwartz is smarter than you Apple. Name one of them. Jeff, have you ever heard the Young Kipper massacre story? Okay, Todd, I'm giving the intro. Can we wait for that for a second? One more. He's also has a podcast called Minus three with Check and Schwartz with former NFL network personality Dave Damaet cousin salso was on there. What did I miss? Jeff? What else did I leave? Uh? That's about enough. Some one office every now and then, But I want to know about the young keep massacres, one

of the great gambling stories. First, my first appearance on the Guilt uh Numbers game show at Visa, I told the Young Kipper massacre story, which is a story that it can't be made up, but it has to do with Jews and gambling, and you will love it. I'll tell you after the after today's show. You don't want to tell it, let's tell you go through the whole thing. Yes, but can we introduced Las Vegas Chris first, and then we'll do the Young peopor Massacre. Okay, ladies and gentlemen.

He finished second and fifth in this year's circumillions. He also finished with his two entries in the top like thirty six last year. He's one contest in Las Vegas over the last decade at the Palms at the Win he won college football last man standing at stations in uh Big Mocher. By the way, it's Las Vegas Chris. Everybody, Hey doing Chris, I'm doing well doing. We bring running

late this morning. But one over a quarter of a million dollars altogether in terms of his two entries, his his quarterly prize and a hedge on that final game. And more impressive than all of that were was you coming on a numbers game and telling the telling the story about the mistake that you made in week sixteen, which was very transparent, honest, and more and even more than that. And I've run this the last couple of

days on the radio side. You you tweeted out all of your picks beyond just the contest, all the football picks you've made this year, and you crushed it. There were only like picks, only nineteen of which were you negative closing line value on and you were seventeen and two in those. Dude, that's unbelievable. Nineteen And you're going to do a study on previous years for you to see if that's like something you've been doing. I actually got to it last night a little bit and it's

not looking the same. So but you you figured it wouldn't look the same, right I was. I was hoping that it would. East Lean. I'm about a third through the last season and it's uh, um about fifty fifty and those that I get the worst of the line. Look at look at this, Mikey, look at this. Seventeen and two. Those are the only games he didn't have positive closing line value on. Dude, is that's the greatest season ever? Look at that? Do you remember those two

you lost? Green Bay my November one, Pittsburgh December seven. That's it. That's the list that he lost on those, but nineteen total. Good for you, man, congratulations, just grinding, just grinding. You're you're the best, man, You're the best in the biz. Um. All right, before we do the divisional round, let's the show is only going to get worse after this. The Yom Kippor massacre from Todd wishnev one of the great gambling stories of baltime. Have you

heard this before? Oh, it's the greatest story. Go ahead, Toddy, Jeff. The only reason because you say you're a Jew and you played in the National Football League. Which that's why this story is gonna make is going to be even greater for you. And that's why I feel like which should be told. So here's what happened, Todd. Stop, what do you mean he says he's a Jew? What do you mean by that that you doubt that he's a Jew?

That he's pretending to be a jew? Jeff? If that is your day, that's right, you changed it to Schwartz. In the In the gambling world, you deal with a lot of people that are not necessarily who they say they are, so I have to be very careful, you know what I mean. You never know. Here's a Wikipedia page he played in the least hitting around bes right put on anyway. So here here's what happened, Jeff. It

was back in two thousand and fourteen. I was betting way more money than I should have been betting on a particular game relative to my bank roll, and I absolutely needed to win this game. First of all, it happened to be yonme Kipper on the day, okay ki, I think it was like October fourth, two thousand fourteen. I was living in Los Angeles, and because I am a renounced Jew, I do not go to temple on yoham Kipper. I don't do any of that nonsense. I

know it's a Saturday college football. It's a holiday. Because there's only about fourteen college football saturdays, you have to watch football. I don't care what day it is. So I go over my friend's house, who's like a phaghazy Jew, and uh watching the Uh we're watching the college and I have a huge bet. This is about three thirty. I have a huge under thirty four and a half in the second half of the Arizona State USC game. Okay, under thirty four now, so I'm just hoping no points,

no points, no points. Right, it's late in the afternoon and USC and in Arizona State only scored thirteen points. There's like five minutes to go. There's no way I'm losing this game. This is about as easy and I need to win this game. I have a lot of money on this game. There's no way I'm losing this game. So I said to my friend the Phaghazzy Jew, who was fasting even though he's sitting there watching ledge football,

and you choose fast. And since he's a the gaisy Jew, who wasn't actually the temple, he was just sitting there in college football with me. So I said to him, look, it's getting dark, you kipper, ends it dark. You know, I'll go around the corner and get you a sandwich. Because there's no way I'm gonna lose this game. That's how confident I am. I'm winning this game. I go around the corner, I get him a sandwich. I come

back everything's fine. All of a sudden, with about like three minutes to go, touchdown on site's kick, recovery, touchdown, another touchdown, all these touchdowns, and I'm like starting to get very very nervous. But I'm still fine. I'm still absolutely fine. There's there's one play left. Arizona State is at the forty eight yard line of USC. They're gonna throw a hail Mary into the end zone. They'll knock it down, game over. It'll be thirty four instead of

thirty four and a half. Everything will be fine. So the quarterback for Arizona State, Mike Berkovici, goes back to pass, throws it up into the air at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. All the USC fans are expecting him to knock the ball down. I believe it was Jalen Samuel's maybe jumps in the air at the two yard line in front of a pack of people, catches the ball falls in the end zone. The colosseum is dead quiet. They can't believe what just happened. This insane win for

air zone stage. But I'm even more crazy because I can't even believe that I lost this bet. My friend just looks at me, dumbfounded. We can't even believe what just happened. We can't even speak. It's just so incredible, right, Okay, fine, so that's just a bad beat story. Right, So, Jeff, you're gonna say that's what's so great about that story. It's just a stupid, bad beat story. Right. Well, here's where it gets interesting. Two weeks later, my friends at

the coffee shop in Beverly Hills. He goes, you gotta come over here, you gotta come over here, you gotta meet somebody. I'm like, okay, whatever, First he sends me before he I'm sorry, I've screwed up. First, he sends me an email with a picture of a college football player. He's never sent me a picture of a college football player in his entire life. He doesn't know anything about football. It's a picture of somebody, and I say, do you know who that is? He goes, no, I said, that's

the guy who through the Young Kipper massacre pass. That's Mike Bercovici. He goes, well, I his grandfather's here at the coffee shop. That's why I sent you the picture. I'm like, his grandfather is at the coffee shop. He's like, yeah, you gotta come over here and tell him what happened. Blah blah blah. So I go over the coffee shop. This guy named his name is like Ruben. He's like from Romania, very very thick accent. And we're talking and

and we're talking about the game. And I said, oh, you know, your grand your grandson cost me a fortune a couple of weeks ago. And he's like, oh, yeah, the the what did he call it that? He doesn't call it? He goes, the Holy Moly. You're talking about the Holy Moly. I said, no, no, no, the Hail Mary. He goes, no, the Holy Mole. He calls it the Holy Moly. I go, yeah, the Holy Moli really cost me the Hail Mary touchdown pass. So we're talking and I'm like, wow, that was just one of the worst

situations of all time. He's like, I said, were you at the game? You know, because the guy lives in Los Angeles, The grandfather lives in Los Angeles. I said. He goes, oh, yeah, I go to all those games, but I wasn't at that game. I go, you weren't at the game. You go to every game and they're playing in l A. And now you know that he goes to Arizona to go to the games, right, He's not going to go to the game at the Colosseum. He goes, oh, yeah, it was yourm Kipper. I go,

it was young Kipper. What he You're Jewish? He goes, yeah, yeah, of course I'm Jewish. I don't go to the game on your home Kipper. So I go, wait a second, is your your your daughter's Jewish? You're okay? So it turns out, you know the way the Orthodox Jews goes, It goes to the mom. Right, if the mom is Jewish, you're Jewish. Very clear, I am very Jewish. I understand this, Yes, okay. Anyways, anyways,

so it turns out that Mike Bercovici is Jewish. So, now what happened here is of all the people in the world that my friend meets, he doesn't meet any college football grandfather's ever in his whole life, he never has met he meets the grandfather of the guy who threw throws the home Kipper massacre pass. And the guy is Jewish. Now, how many Jewish football players are there, Jeff, besides you and maybe Goldberg from the Atlanta Falcons. I

can't think of too many, not many. I mean the moll story here is don't bat, don't put a second half under in a pack, twelve games anything, Rika co and Eddie Goldman. I mean, the Bears are full of the Jews. You know what I didn't believe. I didn't tell. I didn't tell the story as good as I did when I was on Girls because I've forgotten some of the details. But the point, the point is is there

so few Jews in Division one college football. The guy, the guy who throws the yom Kipper massacre pass is Jewish. It's it's unfathomable. It's hash and telling you don't bet on That's what some people would say. Mike, you wanted to say something reminds me of the great episode from All in the Family. But Archie Bunker is talking about the Jews this and that, and Sally Strutler says, but Daddy Jesus was a Jew, and Carol O'Connor said, yeah, but only on his mother's side. That that, to me

is one of the great gambling stories ever. I might have I might have bought it for you when I said schmore BERKOVICI so I might have botched that for you. I didn't tell it as well as as I usually do because I haven't told it at a long time. But basically the point is for people who don't understand the significance of the story, there are no Jews in football. I mean there are very very few. There might be one on the screen currently, but in general, there are

no Jews in football. So of all the guys that you're ever going to meet their grandfather, first of all, you're not gonna meet too many grandfather's a Division one quarterbacks in your whole life. And two weeks after that they throw the young Kipper massacre story. It's probably even less likely. But on top of that, on top of all that unlikeliness, the guy's Jewish. It's crazy perform There more Jewish owners in the NFL than Jewish players. I had. I had a trainer on a team, tell me all

the time. I used, like shorts, you should be owning the team, not playing for it. Baseball. There's still time, Jeff, there's still time. There's still time, all right, Chris, aren't you You showed up? You showed up for this, you know. I listened to podcasts all day long, and I kind of went off a little bit and I go, wait a minute, I'm in this one. I take some time to get used to the rhythm of this podcast. All right, let's start. Let's start. I told you, I would have

told you after you No, I don't know. I loved it. I think it was worth it. People will enjoy that. Um, all right, let's start with the first game. We won't even do We'll just do them game by game because people are gonna have thoughts on each We won't do the three best bets. The standards. Well it's okay, oy one, okay. So basically, they don't want to talk about the fact that I crushed them in the playoffs two oh and one and both of them went oh and three. And

let me just say one thing. I want to say something sad about the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why aren't the Pittsburgh Steelers still playing? Because I love betting against them, even though I'm sad they lose. There's such an easy bet

against the Browns plus six. Baby. Listen between Tomlin going for one instead of two down, hunting with the first player on the first play of the fourth quarter, fourth and short got into punt formation, sent forty five guys in motion like he was gonna like he's gonna fool somebody I was in the defense. That was Tomlin's candidacy for the worst end game coaching moves of the week. Uh, Carol had about four gaps in a five minute span, challenging the Jared Golf over the line of scrimmage. Um,

you know there was that. There was the whole his defense, you know, jumps off sides, first and goal at the tend with just over two minutes left. What was the other Carol stuff? Oh, they kicked the field goal fourth in one, uh twice a short fourth in two wine. Oh, and then there was the other thing that dk Metcalf was whining. So what do you do? You you forced feed the winding wide receiver pick six the game I did? Okay,

that was his candidacy. Who were forgetting Rayble fourth and take right Rayble fourth and two, which, by the way, a pro football perspective went back, there has never been another instance in the playoffs in that situation database where someone did that with that little time left in the game,

down four points, fourth and two and plus territory. And then uh yeah, Reich with the fourth and goal at the four going for it at the end of the second quarter, and then and Josh Allen matriculates the ball down the field. I mean, what was what was worse? Do you ever remember that many on a playoff weekend. Here's what I love about Chris. Chris is like, I don't watch any of this stuff. I don't have to deal with the ups and downs. I just just have my pick and then I see the result. I watched

very little bit. I will give Reich this, I thought right called a good game. Though even when they were down, he still used the run. He knew he could run the ball, and that's what kicked off those drives that got them back into the game. Was actually the running game that set Philip Rivers into positive field position, and they were able they were able to drive them. So from a play calling perspective, I thought Rick had a

good game. But from a game management perspective, the fourth and for whatever goal with a non mobile quarterback going for two because off on the off sides on the extra point and chasing those points was poor. But from a play calling perspective, I thought he had a good afternoon. You're the You're the refeieve said last week the Bill's defense thinks, and I was right about that. But the third down, the third down play, by the way, was more of a great play by Buffalo than a poor

play by the Colts. The Buffalo Bills broke a tendency. I broke it down to my Twitter at Jeff Schwartz. The Colts motioning guy cross thinking was a man coverage, which it was, But the Bills didn't rotate their guys. They just kind of rotated safeties and there was an unblocked guy and Frank Writeson afterwards. We didn't expect them to be there. We game plan that he would run. So I don't really mind being aggressive because we saw

what Tomlin wasn't aggressive. Raybow wasn't aggressive, and you lose games not being aggressive. I was fine with them going for you. I was open Pittman. He missed them on fourth down, like Rivers has just gotta be better. Missed them because Rivers is not a Hall of Fame quarterback. Jeff, you can you can make a good throw. You can make a good throw if you're not a Hall of Fame quarterback. But I mean, like he still had he

still had a guy open, he should have. I'd rather be aggressive than not, and they made back the two point conversion later anyway, So like I think we've seen the NFL that when you play almost not to lose when you lose, and so I'm fine with coaches being aggressive. And the coult should have won that game right, four and fifty yards, no no turnovers, first team NFL history to lose a game in the playoffs with those stats, they should have won the game. That's why I like

Baltimore this weekend. We'll get to that later, but I just think that, like they the Colts, we're okay to be aggressive, execute it happens. This is why I like having Jeff on the show, because he actually played the

game and knows exactly what happened. The rest of us are just pretending like we know what happened without you know, uh the I we had this thing where I was on a numbers game and I said Phil Rivers is not a Hall of Fame quarterback with Lombardi and already went crazy that Phil Rivers is a Hall of Fame quarterback. There's only been twenty six Hall of Fame quarterbacks and he's not one. And the reason he's not one is because he missed that fourth down pass. Now granted, any

of course you can make the fourth down pass. But whenever it's a big, big, big, big big spot, Mr Philip Rivers blows it every time. Baby, you could blows it it three time. Last thing about the last week, as I want to get to these divisional round games, but you're the you're the referee expert. First of all, we talked about all the bad things. Sean McDermott tried to save his team twice and I got this all these uh, these owners are meeting with the prospective coaches.

I would I don't know how I would do this, but I would try to ascertain, like who's gonna be my best guy? In the moment, Sean McDermott called the time out to force the review on that Pittman fumble didn't go his way um, and then they gave him back the time out because they were like, hey, you know what, it was really the replay booth that initiated or whatever, right, and then the clock wound, the Colts didn't snap it, and then he used that time out.

He just got back. In effect like a basketball game where they have a foul to get of and they make you have to restart the play, so from nineteen to fourteen seconds that he quickly called the time out right before Rivers could snap it. And that was a massive five seconds. What happened there with the clock? First of all, Brady Allen fuck the clock up twice? Yeah, okay, no, no, no, no, Jeff? How can they stop the clock when they ruled it on the wait? Wait? Can I ask the question speak?

How can he stop the clock at thirty nine seconds when they ruled them down by contact? What stops the clock for twelve seconds at that point? That that that era I didn't see, but the one everyone's talking about. Pittman fumbled the ball out of bounds that the broadcast did not cover it. He fumbled the ball out of bounds, so the clock stops, They retrieved the ball, they put the ball back, then they run nobody that's correct. Broadcast even even mentioned it all right, that it was a football,

Like I don't think so. The referees, everyone was killing him on the internet, Like, I didn't see their problem with that because that and and the question about why the clock they have a ten second run off to review in that instance, right, because the Colts had no time outs, so when there's a review with no time out, which I don't like this rule. Really, they docked the team with ten seconds. That's why the clock, that's why

we're from thirty. But the McDermott using that at fourteen, that was like at five seconds that disappeared because he used it right before the staff it was. I thought it was awesome if that play goes off and then goes off as they played it right. He called it right. I mean they tackle him in bounds. I don't know if they can get another if they can spike the

ball in time there. But the whole, the whole thing at the end was I just disagreed with why they stopped the clock at thirty nine when you ruled it down by contact. It shouldn't have stopped there. It should have kept running. And then the Colts have to scramble and it's an eighteen yard pass. It's gonna take him time to get to the line and run another play.

But they got the actually thirty nine. Brad Allen stopped the clock at thirty nine while they decided he was down by contact, but the ruling on the field was down by contacts. They stopped it and then they moved it ten seconds right for the for the runoff, and they ran it. Then Pittman fumbled, which that was a terrible played fumbled. Then the clock kept running and then Philip Er completed that pass, but mcgerman called time out. Right, So it's a about sixteen seconds is to cut off

the one. You can run up and spike the ball if you run a normal play, if you game plan for like, Okay, we're gonna throw the ball right to the middle of the field and we're gonna immediately fall down to clarselves down, you keep doing in like fourteen seconds, that's about the time you can get you can get a spike off. That's like kind of about where it's at. All. Right, here, Jeff, here where your seven picks from last week. We have

them on the screen. We went four and three on them, and as we were talking about yesterday on the numbers game on Visa kind of got unlucky on on one of the three, which was not unlucky, but you know, the baker Mayfield one took on a life of its own because that game was how it was. But here are all the correct ones. Indianapolis plus six and a half Bears team total under which was never a problem. Eighteen and a half, Lamar over sixty eight and a

half rushing no problem. Baltimore minus three came home. Uh and the only ones that didn't get there under Ramseeahawks forty two and a half under Tampa Washington first half twenty two and a half because you got Taylor heinekeed and then the Baker Mayfield under passing right, which again I don't know how much you can read into that game, but that was a nice job on those Let's do games, Yeah, let's do game by game. Number one in terms of

chronological order, the Rams are at the Packers. This is the first of the two games on Saturday, Packers number one seed, the Rams coming off their win against Seattle. This has gone down through the seven to the Packers minus six and a half. And I couldn't win, man. When the Rams are winning that game, all I kept saying to myself was New Orleans get it done tomorrow.

I want to see Jared goffin cold weather. Now, it's only supposed to be twenty eight degrees not you know, mild dish for Green Bay, Wisconsin, but it's six and a half. Jeff will start with you were you surprised this went down through the seven and how do you feel about this? You know, because a lot of people just saw the Rams play, right, so they're gonna bet on the Rams just being the Seahawks and Jared Gofflin

he was Night of nineteen. He wasn't that good, but he played well enough for them to win the game. They stacked Russell Wilson, then they hit him nineteen times, but they sacked him five times. But he's saying about cold weather, so he's only played two games under thirty five degrees. He completes forty seven sevens passes passer rating even if you go a little bit warmer weather from thirty degrees, completing passes like, he's not good in cold

weather and he might not even play this weekend. They're they're they're talking about Walford playing still, Like I don't I don't get I don't get the Rams offense. I like the Packers here for many reasons, but mostly because I think the Rams offense is not going to score points in this game. Like, I know people crushed the Green Bay defense, but they've got better watching look at the last five weeks this season, they've got a lot better. They can stop the run. If you make Golf throw

the ball, they're not gonna win. They're not gonna win the game with Golf thrown the football. It's amazing what we're even talking about. A guy with a nine figure contract and then a guy who started one game here. It's like, we don't know who who they're going with here, Chris zinook Las Vegas, Chris, what you got? I'm I was very surprised that the line came down. I was I thought it was kind of a pump fake, uh, that everybody went down to six and a half and

they were gonna just pound it back up. I still think it's gonna go back up. But it's really hard to stomach the rams. Uh, Like Jeff said, how are the hell are they gonna score any points? The way Golf throws the ball with his hand, it's sort of like a jump ball. He feels like he's just lofting the ball and and and it has like a club hand or something. So, but uh, my metrics on this uh uh seemed to actually be in line with a lot of other people. Uh, they we're getting the extra value. Um,

I think this line should be around three and a half. UM. But the Rams are are so solid on defense. They they cover everything. They're gonna really put the pressure on Rogers. Uh. Obviously, Uh the be able to cover Adams and they're gonna be able to run some defensive schemes that should be able to confuse. Uh, They're going to put pressure on Rogers. And and uh they had five sacks last week against more mobile Wilson, So uh that's a hell of a lot of pressure. And a lot of people don't realize

Green Bay played a very weak schedule. I think it was the thirty first rank schedule in the NFL. So, uh, you know when you're playing Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit twice and uh, it's just like last year. Again. They they had a really nice trip. We we don't know how good this team really is, but but my metrics say, uh the Rams should cover this. Um My brain says, how the hell are they going to score? I mean, uh, they gotta win three nothing, you know, lose three nothing

to cover or something. Um. But what usually wins in your brain versus metrics competition, Well, I find that the more painful wage or usually the the better it is. I mean I I get very scared when I like aside a lot. So the harder it is to place the wage, I think, the better off um I am in the result. So Ram supposed the point you made that bad. I I did take the plus seven. Okay, yeah, I took the green Bay. I took green Bay minus

six and a half. And I have green Bay and Teaser legs because I have them with Baltimore, which we'll get to on its own, and the Teaser and I also have them going back to Alabama. Never teach college football, but in this case I did with Bama, so that one's already in. But I hate being on the opposite

side of you on the A T S. Mikey. The only I think break the Rams Catchers that they get the early game and it's gonna be twenty eight degrees at three thirty in green Bay instead of if the kickoff was at seven thirty, and you might be the

game dropping down, you know, closer to twenty degrees. But if I play the game, I'm probably just gonna tease green Bay down because I just don't unders stand how glof is going to be able to move the ball unless they're really effective running the ball on group against Green Bay, and I don't see that happening. Rogers has been so good effort, just just so good, and he's so in control of the game and pace of the game,

and that the line of scrimmage. It's just it's hard for me to envision a scenario where the Rams win this game. And I don't, and I would see to Jeff on this, but I was talking to Jeff about this on a Numbers game yesterday. Jalen Ramsey, great, you can look at the stats. He checks the the opposing guide receiver number one, he's held them all less than a hundred yards. But the Rogers DeVante telepathic connection this

year is just phenomenal. And I don't see Jalen Ramsey being able to hold that down, do you, Jeff Um, I think he can if if they leave Davanta Adams kind of in one place where they move them around. Here's one one area I found it's kind of interesting in play action pass. So the Rams allow the most separation of any defense against play action passed four and a half yards almost separation on play action pass. And we know Rogers this year, it's almost up to of

his attempts are plaques passers. That's really one specific area where Davante Adams might have a little bit of a go against this Rams defense is getting hit on those play action passes. You run the ball a couple of times, you hit that play action pass, and maybe Davanta Adams able to get off from the slot, especially because Ramsey doesn't always travel on the slot. I think snaps during the slot. But I'm curious to see how the Packers move around Adams to find ways to not have him

on Ramsey. One last thing too, Robert Tanyan, their tight end has eleven touchdowns on fifty nine targets. All right, if you can play him for a touchdown this weekend, it's a pretty interesting bet because the Rams only allows seven. They've only allowed seven touchdowns all year to wide receivers, that's it. So the tight end might be a spot here where you can get some value on a big plus number to get a touchdown this game. I'm writing

touchdown levin touchdowns targets? Was that the number? Jeff Yeah? This season? Yes? And now from his mom's work atk in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Todd wishnev everybody, Um, First of all, you can check out my Twitter at at t wishnev and, um, if you like college basketball, you might really like it. I'm I'm currently two hundred and hundred and fifty two for a cool six in college basketball this year on my in game plays, So you might really like that. Two and two is quite a few units up. Why

are you giggling? Hope Speterson games over five hundred? Yeah, but there's a difference between Mett. Yeah, and I'm also I'm also giving the real line. That's another difference. Um so um. Anyways, at WISH, you might like it. Sometimes we even sing um made up songs like Hell to the Heineke. That was one of our songs last week, Hell Victory, Hell to Taylor Heineke. The over Cash is for Me. That was a fantastic song from last week when Heineck put us over on the in game over

in the Washington game. By the way, did that game not look like the other team was not really trying somewhat? I mean, Jeff, maybe you can tell us is there shenanigans going on in football? It does somebody want the games closer for the networks? I mean, it's just what is going on in pro football. Sometimes none of that is happening in pro football, Like, like, what about let

me ask you this, Jeff. If a game is like a blowout, does it seem like the refs sometimes are trying to keep it a little closer or would you think that's just total ball da dash, that's total bullshit. There's no No one's trying to keep a game close. They didn't get paid to keep a game close, like they just call what they say. I think the referee sometimes, you know, I think trying to find penalties too often. But um, no, no one's doing anything of that sort.

That's why I wanted to ask you because you know, a lot of times you watch these games and they're just so tight and it seems like, you know, I don't know anyways, I'm reason why the reason why there are a lot of one score games because it's hard to win in the NFL, and they're like everyone's a pro and everyone's out, everyone's playing hard and everyone's trying to make their money, and you don't want to be blown out, especially on national television. It's embarrassing to get

blown out. Everyone talks about you. And here's the thing about it is is playing football in the NFL. It's tough, right, Like it's it's mentally draining, physically draining, and everyone the facility is there for one purpose, to win, and when you don't win, everyone's depressed. Everybody, the whole facility, the marketing people, that advertising people, because their job is worse if you don't win either. So the only thing that makes it fun is winning. So everyone's out here trying

to win football games on Sunday. Now, you might take Monday through Saturday with your personnel moves, that's from above my pay grade obviously, but on Sunday, everyone's playing to win because it doesn't cost in the fourth quarter. Right. This is why I always say when people go, oh, this team doesn't need the game, this team is not trying for this, And I'm like, what are you talking about. All these guys and professionals and want to make their money,

they're all trying. And I'm glad you said that. And that's why I brought it up because you you say that on Twitter and everyone goes, oh, yeah, for sure, that's true, and I'm like, I'm not saying it's true. I'm saying I don't know what's going on, but I would love to ask a real NFL player, because to me, it seems like everyone's trying for their money. There, I'm gonna go off topic, you want to, I just want to off shoot to that. So I lost the survivor

because the Rams lost out right to the Jets. What what would you attribute that to, Jeff? I would like an autopsy on that game, if you would. I think.

I mean again, like the Jets are playing hard each Sunday, they might lose the game because of poor you know of Greg, Greg Williams, you know, calling zero coverage and it's a stupid situation, but all those guys want to win, Like you know, Sam Donald doesn't care whether or not they draft justin fields next season, or he's worried about him and he actually winning football games when saved him from having to know from his job being lost next year.

Players don't I was going back to their left tackle. He doesn't keece of work. He doesn't care about four years from now. He's worried about, worried about now what do you now? I was more about the Ram side, like how does Aaron Donald not make a mark in that game? Though I think there's book. I think throughout the weeks, you just don't get up for every game,

Like it's kind of just human nature. I think. I think even we can look back to this weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line got dominated by the Browns right and even had Michael Dunn playing left guard right Jewish kid by the way, jewis kid playing left guard for the Browns. He played really well. And you look at like,

how can the Steelers defensive line not play well? And my whole theory about that was all weeks they were told the fancy is not gonna be there, left guard is not gonna be there, the officivee coach is not gonna be there, and they just didn't kind of just aren't is up for the game. I think the rams that situation just weren't ready to play that weekend. Yeah, but one other thing I wanted to ask you, because

we don't get to talk to too many x NFL players. Um, you know, if you watch these NFL games, you love watching the talking heads go, well, the right tackles out this week and that's a disaster, and the defensive back is out and that's a disaster. But they never talk about the fact the guy has a backup Now if the backup is also stinky stinks, then okay, maybe it's something, but not every backup stinks. Some backups are almost as

good as the starter, right. It depends the position, Like there's not many like backup offensive alignment, and they were hanging out if they were that good to be playing somewhere like that's that's part of a two, right is there's typically if you're a backup, your backup for a reason. You're a starter for a reason. And so are are certain positions where you can get by with a backup. You know, like in a wide receiver if you're missing

one guy, you have multiple other guys. But you know, offensive line for example, if you're missing one, sometimes it's tough to play because you're a unit. Have to play as a unit, right, So I I think there are reasons why injuries do play a role in how you view games on the weekends. Jeff, can I ask you an off topic question? Yeah, what is the effect of moving the umpire two behind the offensive line been on

the NFL game? Um? Well, you FL? I mean this year has just said they're not gonna call holding, right, I mean they can kind of pick and choose how they're gonna do it. Um. You know what it has affected a little bit is there's you know, the defensive holding doesn't get called on the defensive line. They hold the ship of us sometimes, um, and just makes it easier for them to call holding because they're right there.

They see our hands and see where we're at. You know, when the umpires in the middle, he kind of just has the inside three guys. You can get distracted by your bodies flying around the place. But look, the NFL has made a concerned effort this year not called holding. It's very simple. I mean you can tell you you can see by the numbers that holdings are down and maybe that's why scoring is up sometimes. Um. But I don't like that. I don't like that you could just say, hey,

don't call this. My whole theory with with officiating is simple. If you see it, call it, like, don't go out there looking to call a penalty there. I feel like sometimes they look to call op I too much, like, oh, that's a pick play. We're calling that just cold as you see it if it's a pickpoint. If it is, if it's not, they don't call it that sneat pick play with something else this past weekend. Uh, Todd, did you give your pick? No, I'd like to give my pick.

I'd like to take I take the under. We're just talking about the stage. I think this is an under game. Obviously, you guys have talked about why the Rams stink um. The Rams are gonna have a real tough time scoring, and obviously defensively they could probably hang in. Plus, you know, the Packers have had a lot of games where they go on these long drives and hold the ball. I can remember a number of games where the Packers are on like an eight minute drive to start the game.

The Atlanta game comes to mind early in the season. Um, So to me, this is gonna have to be. The Rams are gonna have to also try to run the ball and keep the score low. They know they've got to keep it low. They're not gonna stay with the Packers. So I like the under, and you know, probably the team total. Um. Here in Pennsylvania you have team total

in games, so the options are limitless here. But if I had to bet it before the game, I'd probably take the under nineteen and a half with the team total with the Rams because I don't see how they're gonna score the ball obviously, like everybody else has said, it's not that you know, it's not rocket science Jared Goff. You know everyone's giving the statistics of what's Jared Goff? And in degrees? What's he in for the six degrees? What's he in regular degrees? He's not good in regular degrees.

I don't care what you he stinks in regular degree. Game two on Saturday, Uh, we go to the a f C. Baltimore at Buffalo. This has been an interesting line because a lot of Baltimore money early on in this dip to all the way to too even saw some one and a halfs here in favor of the Bills, and then it went the other way. Now it's Buffalo minus two and a half extra juice, so we may see three yet again between the Bills, who beat the Colts this past week by a field goal and Baltimore

vanquished the Tennessee Titans. I'm telling you man that Baltimore game that when they were down ten to nothing and it was third and long for Lamar Jackson. If I can't prove this, but if he doesn't throw the seventeen yard played Andrews where he gets flushed out of the pocket. Who knows how that game goes from that point for we'll never know. Um, Jeff, we start with you. What do you like here? So I like the Ravens just money line, I'll take I'll be a tack to two

and a half. But my favorite playing this game is is Lamar Jackson over rushing. I think it's like sixty and a half and guys, the Bills rushed defense. This is one I think that Ravens will win this game. There twenty three according to EPA or yards per tempt and the ranked thirty one by Pro Football Focus. If just watched the games they play, they played four close games in the last three months, the Chiefs, the Cardinals which they lost, the Patriots who they beat by three.

Remember Camp was driving down to win that game and they fumbled. And last weekend. What's the common theme. The opponent rushes the ball very well, hundred eighty yards, two yards, two or twenty five yards. What do the Ravens do. They rushed the ball extremely well. The Bills don't stop the run. It's it's not what they do. And they have a Ravens team who feeling themselves after finally winning a playoff game. I think they go into Buffalo and rush for over three hundred yards. Like I just think

they dominate on the ground. And the one concern I have though, is that Josh Allen is really good against pressure, like really good, and the Baltimore defense brings a ton of pressure number in the NFL and blitz right, But we saw the end of the Colts game, Josh Allen still has that Yolo in him where he still just makes those stupid ass plays where he fumbled the ball at the end of the game. I'm telling you, man, you could sense it coming. You could see it coming

and end of that game. If this game is close at the end, I think that they will force him into one of those stupid players again. But my favorite play of the weekend is Lamar Jackson over at sixty yards. I think like that to me feels like it's way, way, way too low. He averages over eleven yards when he keeps the ball on his own read That's incredible. That feels way too low for me. That's my favorite play

in this game. But I'll take Baltimore anyways. You know what I love about the Lamar Jackson prop over rushing is I don't see a game script or game flow where that doesn't happen, whether they're up or down. I think that happens because you can make a case for four and a half though it's up to seventy four and a half. That well, I I got it like Draftings at seventy four and a half over Wow, I gotta like six. I gotta like sixty y earlier this week on my one of my I think on my

Fox stuff. But that's crazy. Yeah, So I mean seventy four half is much different than sixty obviously, um wow, yeah, that's still that's a lot. But I think he does. Maybe Fandel has something different. That's what DraftKings has, Vandel has. Let's see if they have it up Lamar Jackson rushing seventy I mean Fox Fox Bet has it at sixty two and a half. I was last night. Wow, someone looks it was yesterday, Jeff. Someone listened to us on a numbers if they did someone, So I think even

at seventy five, I don't know. I haven't I didn't do research on now. I think that's still not that babby. He's their offense, like if they if they move the ball, it's because of Lamar Jackson. All right, Chris, don't go appo here oppo, I have to go appo. What's really interesting about this is last week I bet Baltimore or indian or Indianapolis and Baltimore. This week, I'm switching. I did her You like Buffalo? I like Buffalo. I uh they I like Baltimore a lot. I think they're a

great team. You know, they went through their slump. They had a ton of injuries during the middle of the season. They tried the pocket passer Jackson experiment for a bunch of games, and uh, that didn't work. So uh, you know, we we saw it all coming weeks and weeks ahead of time because they had a soft scheduled and and and everybody knew it. So they've been beating up on

teams like Cincinnati, the Giants, the Jaguars, Dallas. Uh. They the miracle win against Cleveland, which was very stressful since I wasn't watching. I was watching on Twitter, and I couldn't tell exactly what was going on, so through me not so it was a big wager for me too, So it was stressful. Uh. And then last week, and how do you only scored twenty points against Tennessee. I mean suspect defense. Yeah, I mean it's it's every Tennessee.

Everybody scored more than twenty points except New England, who has no offense. And uh, um, I forget who the other team was, but only another horrible offensive team. So I think that that's kind of uh, you know, telling that they couldn't put points up on the board against Tennessee. And my trailing six weeks, I'd like to see how teams are doing over the previous six weeks, and Baltimore has improved slightly, but his only game three quarters of

a point of value in my in my metrics. And Buffalo quietly, they've gained almost seven points of value over the last six weeks. And uh, you know, they've only lost that one Hail Murray game. Uh in their last eleven games, their ten and one. Uh, they're my highest rated a FC team. Uh. Their number one in offense, number ten in defense, and number ten and defense is pretty good because they were wallowing in the mid twenties. I couldn't believe how bad their defense was, you know,

at the half point of the season. So um, I like both teams, but I I see the value. I took Buffalo on the money line should land on three. So I hope we both went because I got Baltimore in the teaser, like we can both win this. It's like e text that he goes, well, one person's listening to a numbers game. All He's like, well, one person picked Buffalo, for God's sakes, because Baltimore became very trendy

this week. Um. By the way, By the way, Denver was the other team that did not score against Tennessee opening game. They only scored I think like sixteen or fourteen somewhere in there the field gold That's rights game, Mikey. I liked the game over. I think Baltimore is able to run the ball here, and I think Josh Allen makes some big plays against the blitz against Don Martindale's blitz is I think he'll be able to, you know, if they can pick up the blitz and he's gonna

have some opportunities to big plays. And I think this will be a very competitive game. But I think the game plays into the upper twenties or thirties. I think both teams offenses will will be flattered by the defensive matchup that they have, so it's tough to pick this game. I would if I tease, I tease Baltimore up, I don't. I don't think this game lands more than a touchdown either way. But the overs might play is where that

is right now? Todd, you said you like Buffalo. Yeah this Uh, Chris said exactly what I was gonna say, which is Tennessee defense is not even a defense. And me, you and Mike could play better defense than Tennessee against most NFL teams and they could only get twenty points against Tennessee. That's not good. And here's the thing you heard me say last week. I didn't like the Bills defense because when they played anybody good, they gave up points just like they did against the Colts, which is

what we thought was gonna happen. But the Tennessee is not a good defensive team and Baltimore can't score on them. So if Baltimore can't score on Tennessee's defense, what are they gonna do against the Bills defe which is maybe a little bit better than Tennessee's. So I don't see Baltimore scoring big here. And the Bill's offense is the elite offense behind Kansas City in a FC. So while the Ravens are good on defense, I don't see them stopping the Bills cold. I mean, you only have to

win the game by two and a half points. Even if it's a tight game, you know, if it comes comes down to the end, you want Lamar Jackson driving down for you having to throw the ball, or you want Josh Allen having to throw the ball to me. I want Josh Allen in a late game situation. I do not want Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson, that's all he can do is run. He still can't throw the football,

So give me the Bills. I just want to bring up what I brought up last week on the show, and I think on a numbers game, also, the Pro Football focused that Josh Allen the most, the most turnover worthy plays, the guy who's been the most fortunate on those that it hasn't gone against him. So it's just they're just there's an accident waiting to happen out there at some point. I don't know when, but we'll see

if it's this week or not. What other way, one other thing didn't the vault More Ravens defense give up forty two points in a very big Monday night football game to another team like Buffalo that can move the ball. Cleveland scored forty two on this defense. You don't think the Bills can move the ball? Bill's baby Bill? Okay, Well, as long as you said it like that. Uh. Sunday, Kansas City starts things off the Chiefs uh ten point favorites against the Brownies. That's a three oh five. Remember

these are staggered a little earlier on Sunday Saturday. It's four thirty five Eastern than eight fifteen Eastern into the night. Sunday, it starts at three oh five Eastern with Kansas City ten point favorites hosting the Cleveland Browns. Total fifty seven. Mr Schwartz, I'm not touching the ten. I have no I'm a Chiefs fan, so I try to stay away from like taking their game just because I'm kind of irrational times with them. UM and they haven't covered in

what like nine weeks. I said, come crazy number like that? UM, I do like two things here. So their team total, what we talked about yesterday on the show is thirty three. Is that what it's at right now? Okay, So they've they've played six games with Andy Reni and Pathomes. After by they scored forty five and thirty five, and those thirty one games were against the Niners and the Colts. Way back in. The Colts out a good defense that year. I think they're gonna score a ton of points in

this game. Pat Mahomes talked about how him and Travis Kelsey spent the weekend going over early the week the previous week, going over every defensive could possibly face in the next round, and writing out game plans for them before they even got to this weekend. Their offense has not played well recently, but the Browns defense is pass down passes to the tight end um. I actually like Travis Kelsey over I got eighty and a half. I

don't know what what what you guys have. He's been really good after By two, averaging about niney yards a game. I think Chiefs just scored ton of points. But my worry, of course, is that the brown scored ton of points as well. I think the Chiefs go off on offense like they've been waiting for the all you have. Talk to those guys there, They're like, we're waiting for the playoffs to be great, which worries me. A little bit. I'm not gonna lie about that, but I think that

they're gonna score just all games, just continually score. I don't think can cover though the tense. I'm gon stay away from that. We should be listening to Jeff, particularly keenly when he's talking about the Chiefs with familial ties there. That's interesting. Uh, Las Vegas, Chris sir getting back before Las Vegas Chris goes. Travis Kelsey is eighty six and a half on the receiving yards, Thank you, thank you.

I actually getting back to Todd's point of um with Kansas City having the number one offense, I actually had them number two behind Buffalo, So I think Buffalo is

that strong. But I've ridiculed and made fun of the Browns the entire season, and they were highly ranked in some of the glamour categories early on, and we're getting a lot of attention, but I look at a lot of the other little things that are you know, are not glamour stats, and and uh, you know, they may have finished eleven and five, but they had the second worsting against the spread record, So they made me money

all year long. Yeah, And uh, I got off of them at the perfect time and uh, um to give them credit that they they've actually uh on the metrics, done a very good job of improving throughout the course of the season. UH. And Mayfield, you know, he's I'm not sure he's getting any of the credit just because his reputation of I don't think people want to give him credit. But he's got nine out of ten games without a turnover. So UH, that's very that's very important.

But you know, the the only thing that I can look at in this game is is the the total, which is the over. Because the point spread, anything can happen. Now, there's just no way you can touch it. It doesn't matter where you put the number. You can put it at seven, you can put it at thirteen. I don't want anything to do with the game. So but the did the over. Uh. Cleveland's offensive stats would be much

better if they hadn't played the weather games. They had a handful of cluster games that don't show up in the metrics that you have to factor in. UM. And it also improved their defensive stats. So UM, they're much worse than they're showing on defense. UH and UH eleven and five and they were outscored. How do. How do you get outscored for the entire season? The Atlanta The Atlanta Falcons went into week seventeen five and ten and

head out had outscored their opponents so high. Yeah, so it just goes to show you, you know, anything can go on, you know, with these Browns games, and they put up forty points two games in a row, they're they're firing on offense. Um, and Kansas City is going to certainly be able to have their way with their defense. So the open is the only look I can do. Seven is what it is. The Pythagorean theorem record should have been eight and eight based on their point differential.

For those who enjoy baseball metrics converted to football, Mike Palm, no play, no play, Todd wish Neev By the way, Um, Jeff, great job with the Lamar because I checked Fox. Bet there it's seventy five too. So when you're getting better than the line, you did a fantastic job with that one. You don't see that crazy. I might need to tell my producer for a show that because we got to talk about this in like an hour and it's still

at sixty two. So maybe not on Fox. It's not okay, good, it's seventy five on Fox Bet now yeah, we gotta yeah, well, I gotta make that change. Good, Thank you for telling me. Anyways, Um, I like the I actually like an hour. I like the under. In the Kansas City under fifty seven under fifty seven and a half, they're steaming it like crazy

to the over. Um to me, I think Stefanski is not a dumbbell, and I think Stefanski knows that he better give a steady, steady, steady diet of those hammering running backs to run to slow this game down, because the only chance you have in hell of being the Chiefs is a slowdown game. If you want to start, you know, scoring with them, forget about it. So I think they're gonna be smart enough to know that we've got to run the ball here a lot with Chubby

and Kareem Hunt and all that. So I think they're gonna try to slow the game down. And um, Kansas City, you know, Kansas City, they're they're fantastic, obviously, but and it looks almost like they're not trying half the time. And in the playoffs, you know, we saw what they could do last year when they were down seven in the first half against one of the great NFL coaches of all time, Bill O'Brien, and then they were able to just incredibly come over the top with it with

insane amount of points. So obviously Kansas City could score. I just think fifty seven is a tremendously high number. Um, So I'd like to take the under here because I think Cleveland's gonna have to try to slow the game down with the running game, because I mean, who goes into a Kansas City game going okay, yeah, let's try to score outscore them Rowden Jon Growdon did and he

beat them. That's the I just want to say, I'm glad you brought that up, because I think the idea of running the football is great against Kansas City, but those have to end in seven points. You can't run the football end in field goals. And what happens when you're down? Are you still run the football like that? And that's conundr about running the ball, right. The Titians last year supposed to run the ball, Well, they're down,

and I run the ball. The more the Niners supposed to run the football, they were actually winning the game, and the chief shut them down at the end in the rushing game. So the idea of running the football is great only if it ends in seven points. If ants in three, it means nothing. It does not help you win the game, okay, Jeff. So then let's go

under first half. That's a great point. That's a great point where you're saying let's go under first half then, because the first half is gonna probably be over twenty eight and a half or something ridiculous, right, So in the there definitely could come out early and run the ball and try that. Right, they're gonna try to slow it down, I'll agree with you. In the second half they're not gonna be able to if they're down too much, but in the first half they're certainly going to try

to slow it down. So let's go under first half. We get a big long drive on the first drive ends in the field goal, you're in great shape. Under twenty eight is a twenty eight and a half, Gilly, I'm sure you could find a twenty eight and a half because they're steaming the hell out of this game to the upside. So if you can get under twenty eight and a half first half, I would take that,

And that's a great point by Jeff. In the second half, they probably won't be able to do that, but I think they'll be able to try it in the in the first half, I agree with. I just sensed that one or both of these teams are going to get off to one of these slow starts and uh, you know, kick a field goal or something's gonna slow it down or lie. Alright, Actually might be Kansas City who starts slow.

We've seen them even off these boys. They scored ton of points, but they kind of do start slow early on. But I think this Brown's defense, though, is just so we'll see how how slowly. The last year, by the way, Jeff, last year, they were down seven in the first quarter

against the Hall of Fame coach Bill Bryan. You know, I mean, I think it was actually nothing, which twenty one nothing, and Brian didn't go fourth and inches, called the time out and then said he didn't have a good fourth down play and kicked the field goal to up nothing. You know what he was great at though, you know what, it was great at being a GM though that's better. It was better as a coach. You know, nobody mentioned I thought there was only one NFL coach

of all time. It was better than him, and that was Mike Tys of the Minnesota Vikings Circuit something. By the way, last thing about that, Jeff, I thought you gave the best single bit of advice betting wise last week, which we never got a chance to even get into, which was stef Stefanski's absence being you know, wouldn't matter the first fifteen plays, and then after that it would And that game was such a runout from the beginning that we never got a chance to make that actionable.

It was just unbelievable. Well, I but I, but I did think we see We saw though in the third and fourth quarter when things got really tight, it's a Steelers starts sing. They went three and out, three and out. It was like, and then I had gone four in the fourth down, maybe it would have been different. But the first the first half of that game, they were all in the red zone. They just ran the ball rand the ball ran. It wasn't much thinking to do from from you know, from the play color that was.

That was Doug Williams and Washington's quarter number two in nineteen Super Bowl twenty two. Who could forget thirty five thirty five un answered? Remember it like it was yesterday. Alright, final game, Tampa Bay, New Orleans. Yeah, it's three, although I'm seeing some two and a half some some spots. Now, hold on, hold on, it's going the other way, Gil. It's two and a half now right, No, I haven't going three minus fifteen, three minus twenty. I am looking

at bookmaker right now. Oh sure it's two and a half and uh four responsive responses. So I don't know. I mean, you can find this in all kinds of places right now. But you're right, Todd, I'm looking. Consensus is three, but there is a two and a half out there. Um are you sure you're not looking at like um steale line, because I don't first half? You're on first half still? Oh you're right, I was on

first half still, thank you, Chris. Chris is not not even looking at my computer and knew exactly where was I'm sorry, No, I thought i'd have the lock of the century coming in. The line was moving against me. So that's right. No, it's three. I'm sorry. I'm ridiculous it's minus three minus one. I want no part of this game. I think it's probably a field goal either way. Jeff,

let's start with you here. Yeah, I had to write about this game, and I was, like I said, my first line is, admittedly I have no feel for this game. I have no idea what's gonna happen. I think the under if I were to take a play would be under fifty two. The last I saw the number. I don't know what's at now we have to we have two really good defenses, and this line has moved up now three points as well from we have two really good defenses. And there's a reason why the Sames defense

has played well against Tampa this year. Now, Tampa's offense is different out they've changed. But Marshall Montimore in his time against Mike Evans since since is only about of nine catches total. That's it. And all the games they played against each like, they kind of have Tampa Bay's number. And there's a reason why teams typically win the third game in this rematch because they're just a better football team.

But I don't really trust the Saints offense right now in the last four playoff games, whatever reason they don't score from points, I don't I don't really. I just hate this game. I under the only thing I'd play this game, um either team can win. I have no idea. I wish you could do more. Just it's funny you brought that up, because you just jogged something in my head.

I asked Aaron Shots, creator Football Outsiders before this last season, when he made his Pro Football Guide before the season started. I said, what was the most surprising thing, even to you when you did all your research, give me one stat that just leap leapt off the page. And he goes, you know, it's funny you asked that. In in the saints last three playoff losses, Michael Thomas caught three passes total on third downs. He said, that was the one

that jumped off the page. He's like, that's why they got Emmanuel Sanders. That's at least the theory behind it. But that was the single thing that surprised him the most. That Michael Thomas just disappeared on high leverage blaze in the playoffs games that they lost. Interesting. Um, Chris, Well, they didn't look all that impressive last week, and and I put them in the same category. I should have

mentioned this. I've been talking about Buffalo. I fully expected Buffalo to be rusty and and just start off that last game, just because all the pressure was on them and they were kind of walking on eggshells, and Indie just gave them all the breaks they needed to change that game. But I expected the same thing from New Orleans. Also,

why did they need to show anything? Uh that you know this is they played ten quarters the entire season with there with the big three on the offense, so you had the acclamation of of getting them all working together. And you know they're trying different things. They you know, they have to you know, integrate proper. Really. I mean every time you introduce new new players, it takes a little bit of an adjustment. So, um, I this is do or die for for the Saints. The front office

is gonna get rated, breeze is gonna be gone. You don't know what's gonna go on with the camp issues. Uh so there's there's gonna be a sense of urgency with the Saints. I think, um, this is it, and I think that there's value here. Also because a lot of people follow the d v A d v A O stats Stevo A yeah, and you do not, No, no, I don't. But I know where you're going with this. That they have Tampa rated at number two and that's simply not even remotely true. Yeah, it's it's not remotely true.

They've chronically over rated them all year. Well, and that's how I was able to take the game's last week because Tennessee was rated too high in Indianapolis was rated way too low. They had Indianapolis at tenth, which is absurd. Um. And that's how I is he able to find value in games last week and then switched to the complete

opposite side the following week. You know, if people are gonna follow data that's wrong, Um, you're gonna get the skewed lines and you're gonna get the support that that brings this line down. I'm surprised this line is a flat three. Uh it should be higher. Um. But like like previously referenced, the Saints crushed Tampa twice already this year by double digits, and uh they have their number.

They match up well, and people think, well, Okay, Tampa's a different team than they were in the middle of the season. Uh they're they're doing much better and u um they're on a roll. But who did they beat? They struggled with Washington, they beat Atlanta twice. Uh, they played Detroit, minnes Soda, They got the miracle cover against Kansas City. That game wasn't that close. So I like Tampa Bay. I mean, you know, this is a problem

when you get to the playoffs. You get a teams that you like betting on, uh that match up, and you gotta pick, you know, one or the other. So I definitely lean the Saints here. I think the the value the wagered in. Okay, Mike, I already laid three with the Saints. Ah, this is my strongest player of the weekend. Really yeah, for many reasons. I think they match up well with them. I think the Saints are

the best team in football fully healthy. I think they're better interest, they're balanced, their balanced, The defense is nasty. I don't think Brady is I don't think Brady is an elite quarterback at this point. I mean, he made some throws, He's got some weapons this year, and that's what that's what that that gives him an ability to be more productive. But I think he's gonna have real trouble in this game. And the Tampa defense. We're all

still remember how they played against Rogers. They haven't played to that level since they blitzed Creek Rogers in the second quarter. That game. They haven't played well. To Chris, they haven't played a high level. Atlanta went up and down the field, and in the first half of that game in Atlanta, okay that they dominated that first Dave and then they rallied. But I don't think this is close in terms of a talent level of these two teams. And I personally make this number six. So I laid three,

all right. I think I think there's a coaching issue that's gonna I think is important also because there's a lot of things about both of these teams that make them pretty similar on the surface. And uh, it's very well, well may come down to coaching and who are you going to trust Peyton versus Arians Left which um offensively you know on that side, Tampa only one only beat one team over five hundred the whole season, one in

five against teams with a winning record. You know, do you like any of those coaching matchups one side to the other? Jeff are I have a quest? So how much do you guys like? And then maybe it's just like the former player to me where I kind of look at like how a team plays in the playoffs, like you guys factor that at all into like the Saints just seemed to like just something about the playoffs are just not as good as you guys ever think about that. It just it doesn't. It's just every year

is different, Every years different. Yeah, interesting, would you would? But let me ask you back, do you think there is something to that? Well, they definitely played not as well in the postseason, is at least offensively the last four games, like whatever it is. Look they have they've only won They've only won two playoff games in the single seasons. It's two thousand nine to get them on the super Bowl. They haven't won more than two in

any of that time. And they've had four eleven one seasons in a row now, like they have not one a lot of playoffs. They lost last year against Minnesota is almost a touchdown a favorite. They lost the year before at home against the Rams. Yeah, I get the interception, but they also had the ball first and overtime and allowed an interception, Like they had a chance to win that game multiple times, didn't do it gets the Bears. The Bears defense is good, but they're not like that good.

And the Saints kind of just look me again, and so I just I just feel like in the in the postseason for whatever reason, and I can't put my finger. I don't know what it is. I don't think as Drew Brees getting older, maybe his arm is not as good in the postseason. There's like not as good an offense. How do you feel about the Tasom Hill miss you guss when it happens, I cannot. I swear, I swear that guy has like has like nude picture to Shaan Kaine on the said, don't get it. I don't get it, Okay.

I talked to a defensive coach in the NFL. He said, the reason why they do it is to make defenses prepare. For sure. That's very valid, right, so the defense have to spend an extra ten fifteen minutes a day of practice working on the Taysom Hill plays. All fair, it's all fair. But the problem is that when you put him in the game, you typically do it after Drew Brees has have like three good plays in a row. I don't get it. He's playing like between it fascinatus.

Here it comes Tasom Hill and then he just give us, you know, and then he just hitches eight times in the pocket and throws interceptions like, I don't see the value in playing him like this. Who who takes out of Hall Dame quarterback to put in a thirty year old tight end. I don't get him, man, I do not understand it. It makes no sense to me. What I feel so much better because every time it happens,

a little part of me dies inside. I'm like, he's not as good as Breeze of throwing, he's not as good as came running, he's not as good as Thomas Catch. Like everything he does seems like a down grade. I just feel like Sean Payton is feeding his own headlines with that. Sometimes he wants to be smarter than everyone else. That's what it is. Here's another guy wants to be smarter than everybody else, Todd wishing of everybody. I was waiting for you to try that perfect seg. That's real nice.

The difference between me and him is one actually is smart as what has a better resume? Yes, exactly him get invited to the court addict. Um, okay, I'm just trying to get on the under here in the team total and they cal Bears against Colorado Buffaloes. Cal Bears under fifty seven and a half team total folks get it. Well, it's hot anyways. Uh. The thing I wanted to say, you know, Chris brought up a great point and this is this is one that I'm always on the crusade about,

and that is the models are not enough. You cannot, especially in football. You cannot just be statistical oriented in football. You have to understand the game. The Pittsburgh Steelers data from the Cleveland Browns game is completely the gazzy folks. They did not. All that offense was against prevent defense. Every single bit of that offense was not against the Cleveland Browns defense that was trying until maybe it was so all that offense you could just throw it in

the garbage. Okay, So all this this this modeling nonsense, and I love modeling, I'm all for it, but you have to realize that it's polluted, and it gets polluted because of games like Pittsburgh Cleveland last week, which was absolutely not the real statistics. I mean, Ben, good modelers to your point, we'll we'll have to manually go in and remove dirty data like that where the game. Okay, let's Jeff's got another show here, let's throw I'm sorry,

you know, the buster forever. So okay. Anyways, the uh the other thing I was gonna say is this is I always say the NFL in game is the way to go. You shouldn't play these games pre game. You might as well go in game. This game, of all the games, is an in game because if the Saints are putting pressure on t B twelve, lights out for Tampa Bay. If the Saints are not putting pressure on t B twelve, then maybe it's gonna be a tight game. So this is the kind of game where I'm gonna see,

are the Saints giving him a hard time? You gotta get on the Saints. So, um, you know Tampa Bay's defense, I'm not. I don't see what's so great about Tampa Bay's defense. Hey, Niki moved on them, The Giants moved on him. Tons of teams move on Tampa Bay. So I'll be surprised if New Orleans, even if they have Taysom Hill in the game, is not able to move the ball on Tampa Bay. I think they'll be able to move the ball into the big So to me, this game just comes down to one thing. Are the

Saints pressuring tea BEA twelve? Are they not pressuring him. If they are, it's all Saints all the time. If they're not, maybe it's a close game. All right, we've done all we can do. We're real quick. The best bet for everybody, Jeff, your single best bet was I'll go I'll stay with Lamar Jackson over rushing yards. Chris. I'm gonna go against the team playing their fourth road game in five weeks, and that would be Saints against the Saints. Yeah. No, against the team playing against the Bucks.

The Bucks are playing Florida, So Saints minus three is your favorite Stus three Ravens Packers teaser for me? Um, I'll take the Bills those minus two and a half. Uh. Jeff Schwartz, thank you so much. We've kept you long and we appreciated. Jeff Schwartz again. The name of the podcast, Jeff Schwartz is Smarter than you. The gambling related podcast once again is called um, I'm not let me get

it right, I want to make it right. Minus three with in the Schwartz hold on Todd after the sentence, Minus three with Check and Schwartz with Dave, Damna, Check and cousin Sal makes appearances as well. It is Jeff Schwartz g e O f F s c h A r t z uh s c h w A r t z pardon me, Um, I couldn't thank you enough. Jeff, I know you have another show to do. We appreciate it. Man,

thank you so much. You're glad to be here. Take care of everyone you too, last years Christ Mike Paul alone not on on Thursday, but still we appreciate it. And Todd Wishev thanks everybody for listening. Good luck with everything Divisional round weekend from all of us on the megapod right here live from the d Bar, Canada, Bark, Canada, right here in last pegas