Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Conference Championships Preview

fun at all. I'm gonna check every line item for four hours. Todd Wishnev is here, the other staple of the show from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. How you doing, Toddy? Hi? Hi? Todd has his face turned to the left because he's sweating it under not really a sweat so far. Valencia Knowlsasuna in La Liga nil nil through twenty minutes? Make it through twenty in minutes? What's the under here? Two and a half? No? I bet the team total moses soon under under a half

plus one sixty. But don't take anything I say about soccer seriously because I don't know a darn thing about it, you know, I don't think anybody was. I don't think anybody was. And so we have two guests today, which we love because we we go through all of the guests we had during the regular season and we only want the best for the playoffs. So we have to today from Canada, and he will tell us from exactly wearing Canada, because I can't remember what he already told me.

They are snowed in from the Simple Handicap podcast, which is just a phenomenal podcast. Is Adam churn Off, How you doing? Adam doing well? And it is Southern Alberta And snowed in is an understatement which snow are we talking? It's it's a good amount of snow, but it's that kind of sort of like melted for a few days

and then froze over. So it's like a combination of like the really hard ice, but it's the type of ice where you slip, it's like jagged enough that it'll it'll it'll leave you on the injured reserved US for a week or two. So you can't really leave the house to to uh liberally no, and if you do, you gotta kind of hunt down the sidewalks, but it's kind of hit on miss and on which ones will be clear and stuff. But it's just a giant mess

right now. Wow, Southern Alberta just for those of us ridiculous Americans who don't know Canadian geography, Like, how many miles away from Edmonton, Alberta? Is that about two and a half hours south of Edmonton, about ten minutes outside of Calgary, so a few hours north of If you go to the northernmost point in Montana and then drive for about four hours, you'll kind of get to where I am. Wow. All right, now, I know you're you're watching while Todd is watching Loliga, You're watching lpg A

golf and can you stay there? Well? And the reason is a good one though, Yeah, because the PGA in Januine February they do these ridiculous multiple course events and I just find them in absolute pain to price and come up with anything good for matchups because they split the early and late waves between the courses and it just becomes a headache. So for for the better a part of January and February until the PGA gets in a regular schedule. I mixed in some euro Tour and LPGA.

So this morning in Florida. I love it. Here's a guy who doesn't hesitate betting on golf. It's my co host on Primetime Action on MSG plus. You know when we're on MSG plus, it's Matt Brown. How you doing MATEO, I'm doing well. I'm doing well. I mean this is uh. You know, you and I've talked about it a couple of different times. It really doesn't matter who comes out on top of either one of these games. Is gonna be a super Bowl that I'm gonna be looking forward to.

We got narratives out the wazoo no matter how it ends up. So uh, this is a fun weekend regardless. Nothing ever goes in the Wazoo. You ever notice that it's all about out there? Wo Let's start with it. Tampa Bay, Green Bay. When we talk about these, we'll talk about stuff that happened last week as well. Pardon me, I'm emotional. Green Bay is a Green Bay right now as we do this, and we're doing this again on

Thursday morning. Let me have my internet. But Green Bay is a three let's call it extra juice three point favorite. With extra Juice, there are three and a half but let's call it minus three minus one five is consensus total fifty one and a half. Tampa Bay is here by virtue of their plus four in turnover win driven win over the New Orleans Saints at New Orleans last week. Thirty to twenty. Three of those four turnovers that the Saints committed led directly to scores touchdowns that is by

the Buccaneers. The fourth actually just ended the game, so they didn't get a chance to capitalize on that one. But that was really the story of the game in Green Bay. Is here they're thirty two to eighteen win over the Rams, covering in the process, um really maybe just to simplify the better football team, and the Rams were diminished. Aaron Donald was not his true self. That

was obviously huge in that game. The Cooper Cup absence, which we learned of officially ninety minutes before that game, that was huge. That moved the line from six and a half to seven right before game time. So that's what we have here, Tampa Bay at Green Bay, as Chris Bourman used to call it, the Bay of pay Green Bay three point favorites with extra juice fifty one and a half, Adam, because you have the most snow.

We start with you, how do you see this? So there are a lot of parallels, I think between both of these games, because each of the championship games have a pretty clear anchor to the matchup of the two teams playing earlier in the season that I think a

lot of people have a reference point. And then there's also what we saw last in both of these games last weekend with all four of the teams, and so, like you mentioned, the Buccaneers obviously benefited from a lot of turnovers um but like I look at that game and I was holding a Buck's money line ticket, and when they were down twenty thirteen and the Saints were driving across midfield late in the third quarter, I thought I was dead because up to that point, like Brady

was not moving to football. Their third down play calling was bizarre, and like it was the Saints that were really clicking. They were across midfields forty five and then the fumble happens, and from that point on the game entirely turned around. And so I could those turnovers led to points and the Buccaneers ultimately end up getting that win.

But I think somewhat sort of overshadowed in this is the last two games in the playoffs, like the Buccaneers, as you well know, against Washington that was Heineke's first ever start, and like there were wide receivers running wide open all game long against this Buccaneer secondary, and it's a Buccaneer secondary that in the second half of the season really regrets. Defensively, for the first half of the season, they were top eight in both pass and rush defensive

success rate down the stretch. In the second half of the season, including the playoffs, all the way down to seventeenth against the past and against the rush, which is a significant step back. And I can't help but feel the Packers offense, as great as it has been all season, is still like a little bit under priced, Like we've seen the market move against him now for a couple

of consecutive weeks. And I don't know if that's like part of the hesitancy that we've sort of learned from Green Bay the last few seasons, especially last year, where they were that team in the playoffs that had all the one score victories. They had everybody looking for reasons to ultimately oppose them. And now we're sort of in a spot where they may be treated the same. But to me, it's a team that's done everything as well

as you can expect from a team. And Gil, you had Alan on your show to talk college basketball like for the first time, like two years ago, and I was listening to and something that he said that has always sort of stuck with me is how we evaluate teams who get out to big leads early versus teams that end up winning and have results going their way

because of things that happened late. And he was making the case that the team that gets out to a lead early tends to be more valuable in the better team than teams that are winning games but doing so in tight contests are coming from behind late. The Packers this season, in all but one game, have got out to a double digit lead at some point. In fourteen of the seventeen games it had a double digit lead in the first half or after the first drive in

the third quarter. And so like, it's a team that has relied on the script with La fleur a ton since he's been the head coach, and they're extremely good at executing it. And I look at the Buccaneers with bowls, they're super predictable in their game planning, and that's why their bottom eight in the league for first half points allowed and first half yards per played allowed. So it's a spot where I think the Packers have seen them before. They got out to a double digit lead despite losing

by in that first matchup. I think the Packers get out to an early lead. It's road game number three in a row for the Bucks on the road, and I think that the Packers ultimately hold on to that and the reluctance of the back door I don't think is necessarily here, despite how good Brady and the Bucks offense may seem, because I think that they have more issues than we're sort of being led on to be.

So I'm pretty happy here to take the Packers at minus three where that number came down to, and I would be happy to take them at three and a half even money if you can get that this morning. Are you also doing a first half bet based on what you were just saying at him? Yeah, they're like two and a half right now, so anything less than three, I think it's worthwhile. And if you're getting them in the first quarter to it's certainly worth to look as well.

But I think how however you want to play it. If you want to double it up between the first half in the full game, or you want to play just the first half. Um, either ways, more than fine. But I'm happy to have both in the accounts. I am doing both of those things myself. By the way, I just want to thank you for for your recollection of that Alan Boston interview and only remembering that part of it because I think it went off the rails a couple of times, if not, um if not four

times on that particular episode. Always love having him on, but he does either their nuggets like that that definitely stick in one's brain. Matt Brown, uh co host a prime time Action on MSG Plus, who joined us really early in this football season. Your thoughts on Tampa Bay

Green Bay, Sir? Yeah, I mean, like Adam said, I mean, we do have the games in week six to go and look back, and you know, I'm sure everybody here's has gone back and look at those and you know, you look at the individual statistics of these you know, four awesome quarterbacks in four of the five top rated quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus on the whole season, and here we are at the end of the year, and four of those five are still alive here, and

you know it basically was all four quarterbacks the worst statistical output essentially the entire season. Rodgers sixteen of thirty five hundred and sixty, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and and one of the things that when you really dig into that was the fact that he was sacked four times in that game. He was hit thirteen times in that game. They blitzed him on twenty one of his dropbacks, and

that was the real difference maker here. Now, what we have to try to decide is that was that just a complete and utter operation that Rogers was bothered so much by all of that pressure because he is actually you know, you look at this Bucks defense. They're gonna blitz again. They blitz forty you know, forty two overt of the time, right, so they're they're going to come after him yet again. But you look at Rogers and he is actually one of the very best guys against

the blitz. There is, I mean an eight seven PF grade against the bliss that was third best in the NFL over the course of the season, fifth best passer

rating against the blitz on the season as well. So I think a lot of this is gonna come down to, is that was that what we saw in week six, And I tend to believe it was a little bit of an aberration that, you know, him having such a horrible game against the pressure, because again, his his career and this season has proven that he can handle the pressure, that he can handle the blitz, that he's going to be able to be okay in this And then you kind of look back at the other thing and Brady

unspectacularly goes for one six in that one, but he was not sacked. He was only hit four times in that game. And we know Brady can't run out of site in half an hour. But the thing is, if you give him time, he's still a good quarterback, one of the very best on the season, and with additional weapons in this one as well, a guy named Antonio Brown is also on this team. Now, um, I think it's gonna be difficult for them to get shut down

in this game. I think the other thing that we might see a little bit early which will be really out of the ordinary for this Bucks team. But you know, one of the things I do think we might see a little bit of the run game a little bit

more early in this game. So it does make me wonder, you know, the Packers run a ton of dime defense, and so with that, could we see them try to take advantage of that with the two headed running back monster, with Ronald Jones back healthy and Leonard for Nette being able to uh to to you know, really kind of come on here towards the end of the season for

this team. So do they try to take advantage of that dime coverage and run the ball a little bit more early and and and that's one of the things I'll be looking at early as well to kind of see if there's some in game opportunities with that as well. But I mean, you know, into the day, I see this as a very very very tight game. If you're gonna give me, you know, if you're gonna give me a hook on this game, um, I'm gonna take it. With the bucks. I like three and a half when

it was at four. As you know, Gil, I thought I had a four in my account. I didn't swoop back in and and take it. I did have a bucks. I do have bucks up to ten uh in a teaser with the with the bills as well, So um,

I like that as well in this one. And you know, from just another thing, you know, I met a lot of props from a prop betting standpoint here, if you do think that this is a if you do think that this is a very efficient Packers offensive performance in this game, the rushing total for Aaron Rodgers is thirteen and a half or fourteen and a half depending on which book that you look at out there. He only got to fourteen yards rushing three different times this season.

Both of those were in games where the it was super super tightly contested. And you know, Aaron Rodgers is that type of guy. If he's gotta go get it, he'll go get it. But outside of that, he only made it to fourteen yards three different times this year. So, um, just you know, by the body of work here, there's never designed Aaron Rodgers run plays, right, So that's always going to be some sort of scramble situation. So I have pretty heavy lean to the under on Rogers rushing

prop as well. Alright, So and and and just to clarify, so you have Tampa Bay in a teaser in pocket right now? Okay, Um, a couple of things. One Matt Lafleur's game plan against the Rams like we should. That that was amazing to me that that he was just like we are running at these guys. And maybe you know when we talk about Coach of the Year candidates and and rightfully so McDermott and Stefanski. Um, you know, Matt Lafleur never gets any juice because he's got Aaron Rodgers.

So it's you know, it's our knee jerk not to give him credit. But I mean that guy's scripts at the beginning of the games are great. The the other thing is and and I want to you know, when you bring up the notion of these two championship games and we actually have a prior this year in both of these matchups, and we were going through it, and you know, we have a week to talk about these two games, so and all the different media we do, we we have to remember what we have and have

not said. But but here on the on the podcast, we haven't said it. I think we all agree like those games don't mean a whole lot to these handicaps. Maybe they do. We'll get to Kansas City Buffalo next, but when we're going back the Green Bay Tampa Bay game, these were both week six, Like I think most people remember that because the Packers were up tending. Nothing was the pick six, then subsequent to it was almost another

pick says, they took it to the two. Next thing you knew, it was thirteen to tend and then thirty eight to ten. It was the weirdest game, but that Buffalo Kansas City game. And I figured this out on eras Jason and I were going through this on a Numbers game. It was that postponed game because the Bills had a had a game with the Titans pushed back to Tuesday. Remember that was when the NFL was postponing

games and the Titans had the outbreak. So because the Bills had to play on Tuesday, that previously scheduled Bills Chiefs game from two days later on a Thursday got pushed to the early game Monday, and it was like two o'clock Pacific. I remember not one second of that game, which is really interesting because you remember the whole game actually, and I have a whole thing about it, do you. Yes, Todd Wish and everybody was, okay, Todd, give us Tampa Bay Green Bay first before we do all that. Um

Tampa Bay, Green Bay. I think I agree with Matt. I think the first game was an a ration. The Packers were doing the Packers thing up ten nothing like you just said. The two picks in the game just

turned very radically and weird. The thing I like the most in this game actually is the team total over twenty seven and a half for the Packers, because if Taylor Heineke um of uh Washington football fame can put up twenty three on your defense, and if Daniel Jones can put up points on your defense, and even Drew Brees was gonna be putting up points on your defense with no arm I think, um, there's no reason why Aaron Rodgers can't get the twenty seven and a half.

So I like the team total over and and if you don't have access to team totals, I would probably take the game over as well, because I don't see the Buccaneers stopping this Packer offense. I mean, they just made the Rams look, you know, mediocre, and I don't see how they're not going to a Buccaneers defense, which I think is maybe slightly above average. If that, I mean that was really a gift game. Let's be honest.

I had the Bucking is plus three, and as Adam was talking about, as they're going down the field up twenty to thirteen, I'm like, okay, that's a loser. And then they fumble given the touchdown and get the other touchdown. I was, and then I took when it got to twenty, I took Saints the other way, going for the middle because I didn't trust the Buccaneers. So you know, I don't trust the Buccaneers. I will say this, the Packers

let Jared goth go up and down the field. The Packers have really not been such a great defensive team either this year. They just get out to these huge leads because their offense never doesn't score. So to me, I like the Packers team total over. But I also like the game over because I gotta think that the Packers defense, you know, it's gonna give up some points. So I could easily see this being like thirty four twenty one or thirty five twenty four, something like that.

Um especially a lot of Packers games, they get up way ahead and then they start giving you back door touchdowns all day long. If you remember the Bears game, they were a bazillion and they gave up back door touchdowns every Lion's game is like that. But I definitely think the over is worth a look, uh in this game and and team total Packers over is the other thing. Packers do have moments, right, we're talking about that late. I don't know if it was Week fifteen or sixteen,

they played Carolina. They were way up at the half and then they kind of just stopped playing football. And Carolina had a great to do in every game. They do it in every game. If you look at their entire schedule that it's like Adam was saying, they're up huge and then they just go to sleep and give

back toor touchdowns like crazy. Um. The other thing I think that that's unique about this is just this this offense from the buck does present at least a unique kind of look for any defense with three I think unquestioned you could say stud receivers, and then you also have the kind of the duel tight end threat there in Brighton Gronk. I mean, Gronk had one of his best games of the season against this Packers team, had seventy eight yards. He had seventy eight of bradies hundred

sixty six passing yards in the first game. Now, again, was that in abiration this when you look at how the Packers have really fared against linebacker, I mean, have fared against tight ends over the course of the sea and they've actually done very very well. But one of the things that the Bucks did is they were lining Gronk up out wide like he was going up against corners in that game and had a touchdown against the corner in that game as well, And so given them

kind of different looks with all of that. Now you add in Antonio Brown into the fold and Gire Alexander, the stud of all studs when it comes to corners, uh, you know, over the last couple of seasons, can only cover one of those guys, right, And so that's why another thing that's Packers defense that has been very very well since week thirteen is they've really did start to

kind of turn things around. Eighth in you know, eighth in yards per attempt against their fifth and passer rating against uh second in ProFootball Focus coverage grade since week thirteen as well. But Jaire Alexander, again, most teams don't have two legitimate options in the past game, and certainly don't have three legitimate options in the past game as well, and so I do think that this Buck's offense presents at least a unique kind of circumstance for the Packers

defense as well. It's an interesting point. One last thing I'd had to the total too, so to jump in would be like last week the Saints and Bucks, Like there was very sharp money over forty eight and a half, over forty nine, over forty nine and a half that got up to fifty three and a half, so like it was a significant movement for any playoff game, even a regular season game at that and it fell right in the middle. So a lot of people were very

happy about that. But like, we're looking at a game this week that's a point and a half above an average total for the season, and it's two point shy of where that game closed. And like I would just simply look at these teams and say, do the Saints have a better defense than the Green Bay Packers? And

I think the answer probably would lean towards yes. And then I would say, do the Packers have a better The Packers have a better offense then the Saints, And I don't think anybody is going to dispute that, And so you're you're kind of getting the counterpart to that would be, like does it look different when it's played outside versus being played inside of the dome, But like you're getting a better offer with a lesser defense in a game that's now priced a little bit shorter coming

off the back of a move that was extremely significant a week ago. Like I would agree that this numbers maybe just a little bit light on the toll. Todd got a little upset just now, also soon to put the biscuit in the basket. I just wanted to say one other thing as I'm getting upset. Camp Acres ran eighteen carries for ninety yards, and I don't care what the stats are, because you know the stats in NFL LIE but there was holes, gigantic holes for him against

the Green Bay defense. So again that's another reason why if Tampa Bay is able to run and take some pressure off Brady, I just think the overhears is just the best play in my opinion. I just one last

thing about this. I you know, Adam was saying how something that Alan Boston said lingered, something like Las Vegas Chris said last week lingered in my head, And I'm not sure if he said it on the podcast or afterwards, but he was saying, one of his you know, hallmarks of success in these contests in the NFL, UH this year and in past years, is having his own UH is relying on other people to use the rankings of of certain sites and to you know, he has his

own and obviously to exploit those differences. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the biggest example of that. He said, this year we're a site like Football Outsiders, and we love Aaron shots and Aaron comes on the show all

the time. But I think there's no question that most people, most people, maybe not all people, most people think that perhaps they've overrated the Buccaneers all year in terms of d v o A as a top four team, UH for most of the season, with some fluctuation, but they were up there, like well above what most people would have them. And Chris was saying, he goes, you know, I've kind of used that to my advantage. Um, look

all the all the reasons stated. Obviously, Brady is Brady, and UH, they've got weapons, and that defense came to play last week. But I'm not sure there was anything I saw last week because of that plus four turnover ratio that Bucks the Las Vegas Chris sentiment. That's somehow that over rating by uh by Football Outsiders was in any way, um in any way uh you know, mitigated, you know, because it was just an aberrational kind of game with those turnovers. So it's an interesting thing and

it just lingers in my head. But anyway, you put all that in the wash. We have some overs, we have some Tampa Bay teasers, we got some Green Bay sentiment. Go with what you will there. I'm on a Green Bay first, Yes, I'm sorry and and Gil like you know. The only thing about that that d b o A is very high on the on the Bucks team, but it is corroborated about Pro Football Focus as well. I get you know, another another site that we I think

respect as far as what they do over there. I mean number six overall offense, numbers two pass offense, number eleven rush offense on the defensive side, the number five overall defense, number four against the past, number eleven against the rush. So while the numbers are in the rankings are high on d B o A, it is it's also backed up by you know, Pro Football Focus and what they do as well. Yeah, it's a great I agree, with Tampa Bay being, you know, that high on offense,

but they're not. You really think they're that high on defense? Defense there. I mean you look at their games, they don't look you know, much better than a touch better than average. I mean Taylor Heineck was just making them look silly. I mean it was ridiculous. How wide open. I mean, that's a that's a that's a Washington deef offense. That is literally me and you could play quarterback better than some of those guys. It's unbelievable. You look at

the Atlanta game. Atlanta moves up and down against them, Minnesota moved on in Kansas City obviously move against everybody. But I mean who did they really play? New Orleans scored a ton on them. Who who are they playing that they're so great on defense? I I don't see it. Yeah, I mean the Taylor Heinekey thing. They play that game about Devin White, I think that's a fairly big downgrade

for a rushing quarterback like Heineke. I mean, Devon White runs a you know, four or five five and two hundred and fifty five pounds and create some havoc for for a guy trying to run for all those trying to run for all those yards and things like that. So, um, I take that a little bit with with a great assault. But yeah, I mean, look, they're they're the number one

team against the run all year long. They only give up eighty one yards a game on the ground, and so you know, some of these teams just have to go to the past. And if you're throwing a ton, you're naturally are going to move the ball, you know a little bit better and stuff like that. How efficient is it when you become a one dimensional team? That's up for debate, But um, you know something to consider

from from the defensive side as well. There for the Bucks to answer your question about d v O A. And for the Bucks specifically though, was that they were second offensively if I'm not mistaken six defensively you know where they suck with special teams, which is the most devolnable thing from a year to year. They were twenty eight, but you know where the Packers were, So it kind of just negates itself. But that's that's when they gave up two big punt returns to one of them that

counted against the dude. As you guys were talking about your your Tampa Bay positions. You know, I had New Orleans basically in money line situations, and that Jared Cook fumble. Like every time you guys said, oh, we thought we were dead, it's like I'm there was the opposite of that, I'm just dying. Just they it's him Deonte Harris. They only came up with three points off both of those part returns, the second negated by a penalty. But it's

just like uh, brutal. Okay, let's move to the second game, Kansas City and Buffalo. Kansas City is favored by three. Uh, the total is a little higher here fifty four. We still don't know officially, unless something happened to the first part of this podcast. We still don't know officially if Patrick Mahomes is playing. Um, Patrick Mahomes, who obviously had

a a banged up toe. Let's go with banged up as the medical explanation of this, prior to Andy Reid calling a, Hey, you know the guy we have that cheat code, the greatest player in the NFL with the banging up toe. Let's have him roll out here to the right and he uh, he got tackled, uh and uh we never saw him again. He was Woozy on his way up. He didn't come back the rest of the game, and the Chiefs held on for seventeen victory over the Browns. So, um, we don't know if it's

Mahomes yet. The line where it is assumed is that we will see Mahomes. Um but again not official. And it's again Buffalo coming off a win against Baltimore in which really they relied on a pick six and then a Lamar Jackson concussion two plays later which knocked him out of the game. The pick six change changed a ten to three game, which at the worst for Baltimore

should have been ten to six. Instead, Tarren Johnson a hundred and one yards of the house great played by Dradavious White getting in front of Lamar Jackson on the run back, and then Tyler Huntley couldn't get the Ravens quite in the end zone, j K. Dobbins dropped the ball. So the seventeen two three that's how Buffalo gets to

its first DNFC championship since nineteen twenty seven years. Kansas City gets there not only overcoming the Mahomes injury, but Kevin Stefanski did not have his greatest day ever as coach made a lot of mistakes, went for one down nineteen to nine instead of going for two, challenged a Tyree Hill catch from Chad Henny that shouldn't have been challenged, lost his first time out of the three. They ended up having to use a second time out when they got too close to the play cock with five minutes

plus left. Uh. And so timeouts ended up being the story of that game, and then the final sequence. By the way, there was a Shard Schard Higgins who could forget at the end of the first half with the with the with the line minus six and a half in the first half, it's sixteen to six, sixteen to three. Pardon me, he's going to the house. Uh. Sorenson gets there and knocks the ball out, fumbles through the end zone. We can debate that. I think it's the strangest rule

in sports, the dumbest rule. Todd has different thoughts that rule. It's the first, makes no sense. There is no better rule in sports. It's the best rule. Uh. So that happened, and then, of course the chace, so we got to debate that for a second. But then the Chad Henny sequence at the end. I don't care what anybody says we the fourth down play. Fine, you decided to gamble high percentage play Chad Handy to Tyree Hill. They got

it done. Now, if it's incomplete, we're talking about a whole different thing, perhaps narrative wise, but it's not the fourth down play. I want to talk about second down. In third down, second down north of the two minute warning, they have no time ounds left. Instead of just running and knocking it down to the second to the two minute warning, Chad Henny Is drops back to pass. He

gets bailed out by a sack. Third down again, instead of just running it in and you know, punting with like one fifteen left, Henny gets flushed out of the pocket, runs thirteen yards on a third and fourteen, which allows them to go for it on fourth down. Um, it's amazing to me that some folks during the week are like, oh yeah, but you know, he knew if he was flushing out of the pocket he had to run on the second now play, he knew he should take a sack.

People gotta stop with this. If that was Anthony Lynn, we would be destroying Andy Reid. Excuse me, Anthony Lynn, we would be destroying him. Anthony Lynn to me, excuse me, Andy Reid, it seems to me we forgot very quickly. We forgot that before he had to Patrick Mahomes, he was a clock management nightmare. Well, the minute he didn't have Patrick Mahomes again, this happened, and so the chiefs overcame all that. So he was both a lunatic and a hero the end. To me, Um, but they got by?

Would you say, but they got by? Go ahead, I'm sorry, I'm done. Just before we get into the whole analysis of this game. Um, right now, you do you were saying, as you were saying, the line was minus three assuming Homes, is it really fully assuming the Homes, Because if we said right now, probably not fully Mahomes is playing, I think it would be a little higher. I agree, it'll go to three and a half. It'll go to three and a half. Yeahs playing than Mahomes not playing. I

think that's definitely on that side. But is it's I'm just making the point. It's not all the way there. I think we agree. Yeah. Anyway, before we get into Buffalo at Kansas City again, three points in fifty four the total? Was there anything I say that you vehemently disagree with First of all, let's do the let's do the Richard Higgins fumble through the end zone. Yes, this is the stupidest ruling sports todd because there is no football logic to it. I agree with that part. Okay,

so what's your solution. Here's my point. I agree with you. It doesn't make sense if you're going to be consistent, like, you know, you fumble on the twenty six that goes out of bound, you get it at the twenty six. You fumble on the thirteen, you get it the thirteen. Here. If you fumble with the one, you should get it at the one. That's the consistent position. I agree with that. The reason I love the rule is the NFL is

already too offensive a game. It's offense, offense, offense. It's almost impossible to stop any good team in the NFL.

So I love the fact that guys at the three yard line have to have in the back of their mind be the f careful when you reach for the goal line, because if you fumble this ball through the ends and we're gonna lose it, which means that there's got to be a couple of them were smart enough to go you know, what I'm not reaching it because it's too dangerous and in a game that is so offensive already, and I like a little defense sprinkled into my ball games. I like the fact that there's a

little something there that the defense gets. Finally, something for the defense. Everything in the NFL is offense, offense, offense. Oh you sniffed on the quarterback past you know, roughing the pastor fifteen passing inference? Oh you touch that guy, don't past inference. Everything is offense, offense, offense, something for the defense, got damn it? And then the guy who doesn't extend the ball gets hammered by us the next day because he didn't put in the effort to try

and score a touchdown. And he gives you that, He gives you the exact explanation that you just said, because you said he's gonna come out and say I didn't want to risk bumboat to the end zone. And you know what you say, Todd, You say, dammit, you idiot, you rate for the end zone and whatever, like I needed that touchdown, like you're gonna everybody's complaining about his effort at that point, like it's it's a ten yard penalty,

is what it is you. You you have to take the ball back to the ten yard line, and and it's totally that's ridiculous. White ten? Why not eight? Why not? Okay? Okay, but whatever it is something you know, punitive loss of down and you take the ball back to the twenty.

Whatever the rule is, it should not be changed your possession because just if you if you just step back from it for a second, just logically speaking, okay, when you fumble, okay, but Todd, but hold on, let me just make my point if I could, so, if you fumble the ball right out of bounds, way you were talking matriculating the ball down the field, you stated again you get the ball back where you are. What is what is just again just stepping back? What is so egregious?

What is so absolutely horrible? Hold hold on? Hold on, hold on? But think about it. It's like that the notion that then you would have the audacity to do it over the goal line, right, the audacity to try to score the football should result in you losing possession. Just think of just think about what we're talking about. What I agree with you, But you still think you're taking this dance, but you're actually serious. He's actually serious, Adam,

Welcome to the podcast. Is a gil Logically, you're a thousand. In fact, logically, should be no penalty. The guy should get it at the one yard line, because if you're going to be consistent, if you fumble out of bounds, it's no big deal. You get it when you fumble at the thirty six. You don't get it back at the forty six. You get it at the thirty six.

There's no penalty for fumbling out of bounds. So if you fumble out the one yard line, according to your logic, and I actually agree with you logically that if you fumble out the one yard line you should get it at the one yard line. There should be no penalty for fumbling into the end zone at all. But if you the reason I like it is, as I said, it's not a logic thing. It's a little rule, something nice for the defense, because they get nothing nice. Nothing

that ever happens for the defense. Everything. We need more points because we need our big crowds to watch the NFL game so we can have concerts and halftime with Lady Gaga. It's like, come on, you have some goddamn defense. I had, you know what else? Is very nice for the defense. Is they also get an extra twenty yards in addition to that change of possession that they never had, Right, they get a touched you back on top of it.

That's exactly right, Adam. Adam, I would say, you're right, they should get into one yard that that is a little too far your I agree with you on that if I think, but I think that the one is a start for sure. Yeah, they're gonna change at least part of that. I mean, you're right, that's an extra layer to the whole thing. Um. Somebody on Twitter, and I apologize because I don't know, I can't remember who

did it. But he said to me, we're trying to think of an equivalent in another sport, right, we like took five minutes like what is this? What is this like? And and the best he came The best he came up with was, imagine it's a baseball game and someone hits a shot down the line and it hits the foul pole. Not at home, that doesn't go, doesn't go you know, in a fair territory, but it hits the foul pole. Sorry, buddy, you hit the foul pole. End of inning. Other team takes there at bats that the

closest we could come up with. You know, there is one point logically where your thing doesn't fully make sense, and this I would like to hear. Here's the only thing that doesn't fully make sense. There's a reason guys don't stretch the ball from the thirty one to the twenty nine because it's too risky to try to stretch the ball from the thirty one to twenty nine when what are you getting. You're getting two extra yards a big deal to drive. You're getting a first down? Though,

what if you're getting a first down? Okay, So, and guys do try to stretch. What you're saying, guys do try to stretch the ball. That's true, that's good point. Okay. Look, I was just trying to come up with something, a shred of something to hang on too for my poor defense. And am I wrong about the final sequence with Andy Reid that he was both a lunatic a raving lunatic on second and third forget fourth down, we can debate.

That's that's you know, reasonable down on third down. When I saw Chad Henny go back to pass, I was like, is this for real? Really? Is he really going back The only thing I could think is he's telling him for Sure to run. But that didn't look like a bootleg for Shure to run kind of go back to past. That looked like a real go back to past. And then he just got lucky that he got flushed out. But that was like bizarro world. I was like, is he really doing this? Is just crazy? Here's how I know.

I thought what you said was about how we're only mentioning this because the fourth down worked out. I think that, to me is the most exhausting part about watching football, betting football, then following on Twitter, is it always depends on the outcome to how much we're going to criticize the coach for making the call. Like if they go for it on fourth down or fourth down, it's a terrible decision unless it works and then in which case

it was a terrific decision. There's like so much, so much of a push for being aggressive and going for it. It's great and we praise everyone when it works, but when it doesn't, they just get killed online. So it's like a never ending thing. But the only reason we're not talking about that second now play call is because they got the first down. If it was anything different than it just piles up. And we're probably looking at other things throughout the game too, but it's that's which

it's never ending. Yeah, that's why I don't I don't focus on the fourth down Pa, because people want to talk about that's like, that's not what I'm talking about. That's yeah, it's it's it's what to me is the unassailable ridiculousness of second and third death and the reason that you know, because I heard some people throughout like again, oh, he knew that he was supposed to take this sect. Oh he knew he's supposed to scrabble. I have Jeff

Schwartz on the show earlier this week. His brother Mitchell plays for the Chiefs, and so you could tell he sort of has to navigate these questions a little, or at least I'm assuming he does. And he was just giggling and laughing because I mean, it's it's really true, like if this was another coach. I used Anthony Lynn as the poster child, but if this was some other coach,

I mean, Bill O'Brien could todd. If this was Bill O'Brien, we would be murdering him, murdering him but I agree with you a thousand percent, and even on the fourth down. Even on the fourth down, I still think it's way risk. I mean, it's one thing to do with Mahomes, but with Chad Henny, that's what is that like an eight five percent chance that he makes it? With Chad Henny, I would say there's chance, we would. Football people will tell you that was a pretty pretty easy. I mean,

I don't know. I haven't two point three percent, Todd. I have no idea what the exact percentages, but whatever whatever you put the percentages that you have to take it down a little a bit for the fact that it's Chad Henny. We just saw the guy throw an interception and in the end zone on the drive previous. That was about the worst interception I've ever seen in

any game, let alone a playoff game. So you have to be wondering what is going I mean, it's a little scary to do that at midfield, and and if they punted deep, they have one fifteen to go with no time outs. Very difficult to score in that situation. So, you know, especially when we talk about Baker Mayfield needs play action to you know, to do you know, to

to be effective and stuff. But yeah, and Stepanski, as I said, going for one challenging the Tyreek play, I didn't even mention the punt with four three left right. That's the most obvious one. The punt four three left down five points. They give it up, never see the ball again. And then there was a challenge on on one drive when they were out down nineteen to ten where Mahomes was still in any hit Robinson for a

first down might have been overturned. They didn't challenge. So not not stefancy, like we said, we didn't want a skewer. Stefancy can see that a great year, but not his best moment either, wasn't There also challenge on Ontarik Hill catching the ball. That was what I said before the twenty three yarder Tyreek Hill right in front of them. They challenged that was they got rid of their first

time out that way. That was awful. Yes, sorry, Uh, you know, as you talked about things that are going on, you know while we're while we're doing this, So just uh the report out of practice right now, reporters, we're at the open portion of the chief's practice. Said Mahomes was out there with a helmet on practicing today. Of course yesterday they listened him as a full participant and

then downgraded it too limited. I imagine that was the NFL coming in and saying, hey, don't listen to this full participant when he's in the freaking concussion protocol like limited, Like list him is limited? Like what are you doing? Like you know, don't list him as a full participant. Um. But he was out there today with helmet on for the open portion of Chiefs practice, So that did happen.

Another thing, The Colts are hiring Nick Sirianni. The I mean the the Eagles are hiring Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni is their head coach. And what they had home to you, gil uh. The Steeler are quote planning to sign Dwayne Haskins Steelers on all three of all they are they are gonna sign Dwayne Haskets. Wow, in here

right now, what are you talking about? We don't one know Dwayne Haskins on a Pitchburg st like, well, I'd rather have that Duck Hodges guy back, give me that Duck Hodges Playne Haskets can't even remember the plays, by the way, if you do, if you do anything today speaking of coach hirings Dan Campbell, who was hired by the Detroit Lions Adam, Adam and Manten. I don't know if you guys have seen this, but they put out there's a twenty Have you seen this, Adam, there's a

twenty nine? Oh you did already. It's nineteen seconds or twenty nine seconds, I can't remember. It's Dan Campbell's opening press conference. And he sounds like a knuckle dragging Neanderthal, like we're gonna kneecaps, We're gonna be the forceful, We're gonna smile at you when you knock us down. And I'm thinking to myself, I'm like, the Lions are completely toast, Like they just toast on arrival. You thought, I said, I'm sure that's the word. You thought. That's right, That's

exactly what I was gonna say, toast on arrival. Yes, Adam, I'm sorry, Adam. Go ahead to two things fascinate me about all of this is one, like, sometimes like head coaches like Cambell, like they just say the most ridiculous things and like that is who they are. But like, first of all, how do they get hired and let alone signed to six years. What did they do in the interview to show one side of it and not present this side and then think like, Okay, I'm gonna

flip back or was it the same? And like they got by with it, Like I don't know how that happened, I think. And then Chris Spielman probably loves this ship, right,

Oh my god. And the second thing is like, Matt, you said they hired Sirianni in Philadelphia, Like, I don't know why teams are obsessed with turning above average, too great offensive coordinators into head coaches rather than just keeping them is above average the great offensive coordinators, Like why can't there just be great offensive coordinators who were terrific at their job, great defensive coordinators who were great, and they just have guys who are head coaches that manage everything,

work on putting players in the best position to succeed and leave the play calling and all the headache to

all these other guys. Like but like, we're obsessed with trying to turn bron day Ball into a head coach when he's probably the best oh CE in the game this season because of where he sits and how he manages it, rather than putting him on the sideline and giving him all these duties, Like why can't guys just be great offensive coordinators for teams and call the players and do such an important role like they like teams are just I think forcing it with somebody's head coach hirings,

I just I don't get it. That's the North Turner effect. Yeah, I said this, and I don't, Adam, I don't know if there's any way. I don't know how I would do this. But if I were an owner who was trying to hire a head coach, and I said this on prime TIMEE So forgive me for repeating him. Man, But it's somehow in the interview, because what do we talk about most besides handy Gabet We talk about their

gaffs in game. But I would try to ascertain somehow how a coach would behave in an in game situation, right, Like, who's the Sean McDermott, who gets that he's got to call that time out right there to get the refs to to actually replay this to see if it was a catch or not. Who's the Sean m you know, who's that guy? Who's the Bill Belichick Versus who's the guy that, you know, I just want a guy who

is a big picture guy. You can delegate all that other stuff, but that's what I want more than anything. I don't know how i'd figure that out an interview, but that, to me is what I value the most at this point because that's a differentiator with these guys. Dan Campbell's not I'm not hiring that dude. It's like, I'll be like, you're you're great, thanks for the interview. You know, like my old my old football coach guy said, look, we're gonna run the football. We don't care what the

other guys are doing. We're just know the world and just punch him in the moth. Matt, this is this is the Dan Campbell interview. We just alright. As far as the game, then Buffalo in Kansas City, Adam Europe. So I think very similar to the Bucks and Packers in that there was obviously that anchoring game that these two teams played much more recently. I think that previous matchup has a little more like resemblance of what we may see compared to the other game in the NFC,

where I think both the Bucks and Packers are very different. Um, I think the Bills and Chiefs very much similar teams to what we saw when they played each other. Um, not that long ago, but I would say that the parallels here stay the same in the sense that the Bills through two playoff games, they've allowed thirteen opponent drives

inside their own thirty yard line. They've allowed twenty seven points on those thirteen drives and scored seven of their own, so their in net minus twenty on thirteen drives inside of their thirty. Offensively, in the first game against the Colts, Josh Allen and the Bills are great against the Ravens. They struggled the time, but like they're coming into this game on an absolute role against the spread. They've covered

eight nine in a row. Whatever it is, hottest team in the NFL the end the season, that's still carrying on, and they're just they're getting these timely plays on defense, whether it's the stops inside their thirty in their red zone, the fourth down stops that they're generating, the turnovers, the pick six, whatever it is, Like, like how long does this ultimately go on for before a team makes them pay? And I look at the Chiefs, who are inside of

the red zone among the best in the NFL. They're obviously with Mahomes a terrific offense, and Casey comes into the game. They haven't covered a game since November one against my beloved New York Jet. So, like it's a huge contrast in terms of how these two teams are being treated. I think the Bills probably for the first time in the entire season, hit like the peak of their price point against the Colts in the wild card game,

where there was seven point favorites. That was just the second time all season that they were seven point favorites in a game, believe it or not, despite how great they've been playing. And so I can't help but look at this game and say, if either of these sort of streaks were reversed or not as existent coming into the game, if maybe they were both four and four against the spread, or they didn't have these contrasting streaks coming in, Like are we looking at Kansas City is

a much bigger favorite? Like is this a case where the number now at three is doing part to obviously the Mahomes injury, but like, is it suppressed a little bit because of how great Buffalo has been and now Kansas City has not been able to cover or spread in over two and a half months, Like, how does that factor into this number, and how large would it be if if those things were reversed or non existent, and do those things like really really matter for this matchup?

And the Chiefs similar to the Packers, Like they're a team that despite not covering in a lot of these games down the stretch, Like they're out to a huge lead against the Buccaneers, they don't end up covering. They're out to a huge lead against the Broncos, don't end up covering. They're out a huge lead against the Dolphins, don't end up covering the same thing with the Saints, And then last week again against the Browns, they get up by a couple of scores and in Cleveland ends

up coming back and getting that backdoor cover. So it's it's a very similar situation, and I can't help but feel that the number could potentially be just a little bit low because of the circumstances that bring both of these teams into the game. By the way, I forgot you were a Jets fan, would you do you want to trade for Deshaun badly? Would you make trades for Deshaun ask Houston? Whatever they want and give it to them without asking questions. I think that is the proper response.

Deshaun who was number three, as Matt said earlier Pro Football Focus quarterbacks, the other four in the top five all in championship games. Matt Q. Yeah, so I took when this thing got to three and a half, I took it on the Bills. If you're gonna give me, you know, more to field goal again on this game, I'm gonna take it. Listen, you go back to that Week six game and you say, like, Okay, is there anything we can pull from that? And I think there is at least a little bit that we can pull

from that one. So you look at my homes against statistically one of his lower games of the year six, that's that's obviously a good completion for twenty five yards passing. The big outlier there is you look and you see Clyde Edwards, a layer goes for a hundred and sixty

one yards on the ground on twenty six carries. And what you see there is again what I kind of talked about last game with this Bills team, and and and this isn't a pattern if you go over the course of the season, the Bills lull you into wanting to run the ball against them because they understand again, Sean McDermott, and these guys are smart enough to know that running the ball in early downs is not the way to win football games in in the NFL. It

is less efficient. And that is kind of how they go about kind of tricking you into doing something that you really shouldn't be doing, especially if you're a team like the Chiefs. And if you look back at this Week six game, the Chiefs ran the ball on percent of first and second down plays in that game. The

Bills just let them do it. There were six or fewer players in the box on of the plays on the Bills side of the ball and defense because wanted Patrick Mahomes to not utilize the Travis Kelsey's in the in the Tyree Hills and stuff like that, and utilize what he does so incredibly well. Run the ball all day. Eventually, it's not gonna work out, and we're going to be

able to capitalize on that. Now, it didn't work out in this game that that that strategy um they were they were able to get you know, seven over seven yards to carry and and they were incredibly efficient on the ground and the Chiefs weren't able to I mean, the Bills weren't able to hold them to get it done. But I mean, I think that strategy should play here

yet again. I think they should do that again. Don't let Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and Tyree Hill get it going against you, play light in the box, let him run the ball and and you know, with a less than a hundred percent Clyde Edwards Hilaire this time around, or Darryl Williams, whatever it might be, whoever gets the

bulk of the carries for this team. And Alan's not going to have as bad a game as he did the first game, his worst game of the season by far, only a hundred and twenty two yards through the air. He did add forty two on the ground, but he was under pressure on seventeen of his thirty one dropbacks.

That's not going to happen again as well. And so I think that you kind of look at this as Josh Allen's worst game of the year against a creative defensive strategy that the Bills are going to uh, you know, I think that they're going to use again. And you know,

is Andy Reid aware of that. Is Andy Reid going to counter that by, you know, not running the ball and not letting it and not getting sucked into that, or if they're gonna hand you the four and five yards every time, is it just too good to let go? And so I expect some offensive regression from the Bills in this game to get back to where they were basically the entire rest of the season moving the ball.

This Chief's defense certainly can be had definitely on the ground, and the Bills are a little bit more efficient running the ball when they actually do run it, then you give it credit for singletary. Actually average is nearly four and a half yards a carry on the season. It's just that they just don't run bel they just throw all the time. Because they're so good at throwing the ball.

The receiving corps back help completely healthy. The addition of an experience of Gabriel Davis, the rookie getting going a lot better, uh in this offense as well. So if you're gonna give me three in a hook, it's not available anymore. I took the three in a hook even at the three. I don't hate it. I think the

Bills can win this game out right. I mean we're we're talking about the concussion for Patrick Mahomes, and yeah, I mean that that's a big deal for sure, but I mean he was hobbling something fierce in that game. We I mean, like, this is like even if we get him out there, like we're not getting Patrick Malmes no matter what I mean, even if it's if whether it's the head or it's the foot tow whatever and

whatever the hell it might be that's going on down there. So, um, you give me one of the very best offenses in the NFL the entire season long against you know, a casey offense that might have a Patrick Mahomes. I understand eighty percent, Patrick Mahomes is better than basically every quarterback in the NFL. But uh, this, this Bill's team is not going to let you get by with any sort of lulls. They're going to move the ball, They're going to score. So give me the three and a half.

Give me the three, and like I said, I'll have a sprinkle on the Bills money line as well. You're you're so right that we could all be focused on the wrong Patrick Mahomes injury. I will say that I've gotten this cottage industry of I don't want to call him Dr Chow disciples because they may be much more legit on you know, who have who have contacted like, oh, the toe is not a big thing. Oh the toe could be a big thing. So who knows. But you're right,

it was definitely hampering him. I love that you went back and watched the two games, the green Bay Tampa Bay game in the Buffalo Kansas City game that happened in week six. Man. The other thing is, I think in the in the end, I'm going to be on I'm already on Green Bay, but I'm gonna be on Green Bay and Kansas City. Um. I think for me, I'm just gonna, you know, if you can beat me, if both of those other teams can beat me, tip

of the cap. But the one thing that I just absolutely do not if I if I see this on Twitter this weekend, I'm just gonna lose my mind. I hate, just as a general rule, when people talk about sharp and square and pros and Joe's or whatever the hell they're talking about. But please, with these two championship games, I don't want to say, oh, the sharp side is this, and it's just come on, stop with that this weekend. Every I like when they do that stuff. It's just

so dumb. This week specifically, it will be ridiculous. Alright, do now. I watched the first game between the Buffalo Bills in the Kansas City Chiefs, very very clearly Hashem got involved and screwed me because I had the team total first half over Kansas City. If you remember, Kelsey made a touchdown in the rain in the back corner of the end zone late in the first half and then Butcker missed the extra point to screw me on my team total. So I remember this game. Uh, and

Matt Brown has it right. This game. The only thing I will say this game was very very interesting, and if you remember correctly, I remember watching this game and thinking the Bills are saying to them, please take seven yards a carry. Please, here you go, take seven yards. We do not want to let you beat us with the passing game. So Andy Reid said, okay, fine, you're gonna give me seven eight yards a carry. I'll just

keep running the ball. And that's exactly what happened. And while McDermott have a good strategy, Matt with doing that against most teams it wasn't working that night because they were getting seven and eight yards a carry. Now, I'm sure that might work against other teams that aren't a juggernaut offense like Kansas City. I remember watching this game and thinking, there's not a chance in hell the Bills can win this game because they're not gonna be able

to stop him even one time. They're gonna just keep letting them drive down the field with these eight yard runs. If you remember, Hilaire was getting gashing them every single I don't know what he was averaging uh that game, but it was something ridiculous the running that they were doing in this game. So what the way I want to look at this game is I think that if especially in the first half, maybe first half, Um, if you can get um in game running for first half,

a lot of places have that. Now if you see that, that's what it's gonna be, and the Bills are gonna just play everybody back and let them run the ball on them again, you might want to take the under here because you're gonna see a lot of six and seven minute drives because Kansas City will say, fine, give us seven yards a carry, no problem. It just eats the clock eats the clock, eats the clock, and you

might want to be looking at that. Um. Now. On the other hand, I'm with Gil as far as if if you I'm gonna watch this, I'm obviously not gonna play a pregame, but I'm gonna watch the first series or two and see does Mahomes look like he's okay. If he does look like he's okay, I am all over Kansas City. The Buffalo defense is fraudulent. I said it before the Indianapolis game when I took I went against Phil Rivers anonymous meetings, and I go to Phil

Rivers anonymous games. I went against that, and I bet on Phil Rivers plus the six or seven against Indy because I know the Buffalo defense is fraudulent. They had their numbers go up. And this is why I can't stand the d v O A and the s p C A and all the difference against I'm against all the anybody with initials, okay, because here's the deal. The Buffalo defense the first half of the year was not good. Look at this. Look at the forty two they gave

up against Tennessee thirty two to the r MS. They give up like a thousand and the second half in that game, they were not good. And then all of a sudden, they played a couple of teams that just stink ola on offense, like San Francisco with Mullen, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots don't even have an offense, Miami Dolphins, and and everyone's like, oh, well, Buffalo's defense, Yeah, it's pretty good. No it's not. It's not good. So

Kansas City will move if Mahomes is okay. Now, this all is an in game play for me because I want to see what Mahomes look like. And I also like Matt brown point, the foot also is a big problem. Matt, that's a freaking great point that everyone's forgetting about. The foot is a huge problem. So let's see what happens in the first two drives and then we're gonna be able to tell right away what's going on here. Are we gonna get Andy Reed handing the ball off for

six seven yards of play? Does Mahomes look okay? If there was ever a game that screamed out for in gaming, and I think in gaming is the way to go on a hundred percent of the games, But if there was ever a game that screams out for in game, it's this football game. All good points, all good points. Did we miss anything, guys? Teaser Matt, You're you're teasing both dogs here together. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've got both of them up. I have the Bucks at ten and

I have the Bills at nine. The only other thing about that Week six game, I mean, they did run the ball all over the Bills. Matt Mulano was out in that game, and so just again there's there are these guys that when they're out there, it does affect that.

Now that's not to say that he's like this complete, complete game changer and that's going to mean that they can't just run the ball if they will if they allow him to do that, but having not having him out there certainly was was a factor for the Bills. Matt z in against the Colts. Uh, he was in. He he he was in about half of the snaps. He was trying to come back um from injury there and so uh, supposedly he's injured. Supposedly he's uh he's

healthy for this one. But you know again, but supposedly are and Donald was healthy as well, So I mean you know, we're you know, we're we gotta deal with all that nonsense at this time of year. I mean, let's stop that first game. Sorry, sorry, Todd. Let's not forget too that that first game was. It was played in pouring rains in thirty wins for all four court. So I think that influence play calling a ton, But it really comes down to how they want to manage

their safeties against Kansas City. Like Houston and the opener played with two deep safeties, and Kansas City did the exact same thing where they just they said, Okay, they're gonna play like this, and they just walked down the field took short games the entire time. Same thing happened with the Raiders in the second game. Um happened in the Bills game as well. When they chose to do it.

The Buccaneers played a lot more aggressively. That's why that game looked a lot different in terms of how Casey

was able to move to football. So like, if you're looking in play, it doesn't appear like the weather is going to be as much of an issue this game, certainly not as much as it was in the first meeting, where that really impacted the game overall, but like you're gonna learn right away how Buffalo is going to choose to defend Mahomes and Casey and if it is that too deep, look, Kansas City has really gone to sort of the same play calling the entire reason when teams

have chosen to do that. But what is interesting, it's like in the repeat games with the Raiders the Texans that was essentially a repeat game because they played them in the playoffs, um, and then we saw a couple of other times as well within the division, they the teams that opposed them flip their defensive schemes game to game. They no team within the division went the same scheme both games. So we might see a bit of a change with Buffalo in terms of how they want to

handle it. Maybe we don't, we're just sort of speculating, but if we're looking at sort of the other four repeat games, including that Houston one, complete opposites in terms of how defenses opposed Kansas City because they of how they factored in the first game. So sorry, what's what's so great about this game is we get to watch the game and then we can bet, and now they even which you guys in Vegas don't have, but Fandel,

they have in game props, don't we know. I couldn't theoretically watch this first quarter and see, are they gonna just give it to the running back every five seconds? Okay, I'm betting that rushing. I know the number is going to be inflated, but I don't care inflate the number on me. I'll take the over anyways, and it'll still get there because you're gonna be able to tell the strategy of the as Adam just so pointed out, Matt pointed out, my friend Gilly even gets this. And you know, Gilly,

he's not the brightest bulb in the bunch. Um, I'm just kidding, guys, I love Gilly. Um. The point is you're gonna get to watch and see. That's why end game is so important. Whether whether I'm gonna say, Gil, yeah, that's where I was gonna go with that. It's like, yeah, I mean, if as far as weather goes, the Kansas City is completely clear, Like that's gonna be a perfectly fine game in that one. But yeah, in Green Bay, it looks like it actually could snow. Now, it does

look like this could be a snow game. It looks like the latest model here has like one to three inches of snow on Sunday, might even be a little bit of accumulation and stuff like that, but as we know, that always looks worse than it actually is because there's not gonna be any wind to go along with that.

So you know who knows, and and Adam, if if you like the over, if you y'all both of you all like the over, in that game, we might see this total falk because people overreact to the snow on the damn field, and we might be able to get even better and even better number whenever it whenever it

rolls around. So hopefully it does snow and all they talk about is the snow on the field, and then we get even better value and taking the over in this favor is the flag at the top of the stadium that's like four ft above the wind and then oh it's windy here, and then you go to field level that's beneath the stands and it's nothing. Although I will say this man, with that that Buffalo game against Baltimore last week, we're like, oh, it's only eight miles

per hour. And then as soon as that game started, alt Michael's was like, if this is eight mile per hour winds, I'm an astronaut. And those goalposts were like covering the entire game, and and justin, Justin Tucker couldn't make field goals. Yeah, but MAT's right, there's you know, maybe snow in Green Bay fifty could be rained in Kansas City, but yet not close to snow forty four degrees expected in Kansas City for the second game. By the way, that's fahrenheit at him. For those of you

who are I got it. Yeah, Adam was making a good point that I think that people who know gambling understand, which is snow is not as big a factor as wind.

So just in case people who are a little less experienced and understanding what he was trying to say there, he was basically saying that snow is sometimes faked into people thinking the under when really it can theoretically being over because the defensive backs fall down and the receivers know where they're going, whereas wind is really an under thing because it's much harder to throw the ball. I was just that's just a little help out because Adam

was making good point. I didn't want all the newbies not to know what he was saying. Thank you for the clarification. I think Matt said it by the way that Matt say, it doesn't matter whatever was they were both saying. They were both saying it, But my point was they I think they were. They were talking like I knew exactly what they were saying, but I'm sure some people didn't. Alright, you're sweating out your osasuna one one nil sixty six. I lost. I had osa suna

under a half plus one sixty Oh sorry, sorry about um. Okay, uh, We've done all we can do. Appreciate it. As always, as Matt said at the very beginning, the nice part about this is, and again maybe I'm wrong in memory, but I don't remember too off at us having four teams where no matter the matchup for the Super Bowl. Um, whether it's the Bucks versus the Chiefs or Bills, or whether it's the Packers. Excuse, but yeah, the Packers versus

the Chiefs are Bills. Um that all of these spreads, you know, we guess them on Primetime Action earlier this week. They're all like three or lower, with the Bucks and the Bills being as close to a pick them as as as there are in all these so it's gonna be a great matchup no matter the case. Uh, come two weeks from today, next week, Uh, the week off not a week off for the podcast. It's our tenth annual Vegas Lifestyle podcast, a Man's Guide to send City.

It's gonna be strange because it was a pandemic year, so I don't know how much additions will have, But we'll get Mikey back in here and uh we'll talk about that, and then of course two weeks from now not only take on the super Bowl, but also Super Bowl props, the super Bowl edition of that. Can I just can I just pimp out my my Twitter feed real quick? Okay at t wishnev is my Twitter feed

t w I s h n e v UM. I went back and looked all the way back through November twenty this year when college basketball started to see how I was doing, and in just the ones that I tweeted, because I didn't tweet all my plays, but in my college basketball tweets, um I am one seventy one and one oh seven, and in game college basketball tweets and my football tweets since that time as well, I had I broke them out. I'm sixty five and fifty one.

So if you if you want a good uh, now, you also have to endure my tweets where I wind like a little baby because something bad happens to me. So there is that that comes with it. There's a lot of bitching and moaning and crying. But if you can handle the bitching and moaning and crying, you can get some winner. Something that's kind of the hurdle with you, isn't it. That's part of it. Yes, there's gonna be a lot of bitching and yeah, Adam, it's the Simple

Handicap Podcast. Anything else we should know you're in the gall off now you're putting out golf stuff. Yeah, first year I'm doing golf. I was essentially irrelevant between February and September when there was no football. So I'm doing it out of out of love for golf and love for betting on golf. So that'll be once a week. I love it and the Simple Handicap available. We're all podcaster attributed Matteo. Besides Primetime Action, did you want to

plug anything? You don't need to follow me on Twitter. Don't worry about it. Yeah, that's bad. I like your post on Twitter. That is very Yeah, it's Matt Brown him too. There you got Matt Brown, m too. Give me all of your hate and vitriol. I'm here for He's very comfortable in his own skin. This Matt Brown, very comfortable. I love it alright for Adam turning off for Matt Brown. Four Todd wish If. Thank you guys, appreciated uh NFL Championship around. Good luck with all your

bets this weekend. Thanks for listening to the megapod. Appreciate it. T