Beating The Book: 2021 Major League Baseball Extended Preview

amount rushmore. But this is These are the three guys I would most want to talk to about baseball period, beginning with the first time appearance from a gentleman who is known to all from both ESPN and the MLB Network, everybody's favorite announcer kind enough to join us, Matt best version. Thank you Matt for doing this. I appreciated Gil. I get to talk about a game I love with people that I love to listen to, and in the case with Paul, someone who's material I've been stealing without credit

for years. So full disclosure. Thank you, Paul, No problem, No problem, Paul's could call. Paul couldn't be more tickled. No, it's good, buy me, Like I said I told him offline. You know, listen to him every single day at my life point and I'll be the show. So Matt and I have a have a bond here that's now being you know, put put together, alive and in persons I like it or alive on the phone, I should say

that is that is the voice. By the way, for those who are unfamiliar, I'm sure you are if you've listened to this podcast for years or numbers. Game on visa from fan Graphs, host of the Sleeper of the Bus podcast, Paul Sporer from Austin. I'm sure his dog will make an appearance at some point on this on videos right here. Okay, Charlotte's okay, she's great. She's great. You know, she's there, like yeah, I think that there's gonna be like a little bit of wobbliness for forever. Now.

You know, she has a back issue, but she can run a little bit. She's got her attitude back. It's

all good. Everything's great, and you know none of the other stuff that was in that one interview that everybody Okay, Well, so I was doing a spot with Gil and like just about as it started, she was coming off of an issue with with a back issue wish she had to take a much of pills and gave her explosive diarrhea, which she had in my office uh as the spot started, and so I went through like seven minutes uh to have to finish the spot. And I'm surprised Gil couldn't

smell it over over air. It was that bad that I thought it would translate through video. And I'm just sitting here trying not to react too much too And I kept looking back a few times and girls like, what are you looking back at? Like he texted me. I was like, you don't want to know. So, yeah,

that was pretty fun, bad back, explosive diarrhea. I think you just also described former Golden Spikes Award winner Mark Kotze here you reference love and uh and the third member of this steam Pale, and I do mean a steam uh from under a cloud of smoke. I always give him that intro, but really he is as as big a baseball savant as I know. It's my buddy Jason wine Garden, who bets baseball in all kinds of ways. Thank you for being here, Jason, as well. Thank you

for having me. It's always fun to be on on any of your shows. Podcast appreciate it. So this is there's a lot to get to here, So so we might as well jump in at the sort of most macro level, which is just the futures in terms of World Series, n L or a L. Obviously, the Dodgers extremely top heavy UH in the National League for for

obvious reasons. In fact, Jason, you had even said on the radio side many times they should have props where it's Dodgers pictures versus the field for Cy Young, Dodgers hitters versus the field for m v P. I mean, it's that ridiculous. Is there anything and and Jason, let's start with you. Let's do this in reverse order. Is there anything in the futures market, either for World Series or for a L or n L that you feel

is bettable right now? I mean, if you have a strong, strong conviction and a particular team to really be a dark course and then potentially up set the Dodgers, I think you could really kind of drill down and find quote bettable numbers, you know, on on teams that could make the playoffs and potentially be the Dodgers in the series. But now I'm I'm not really setting any money on any future is, especially because the futures market doesn't close

when the season starts. I think if there is a particular team I want, I'll probably be able to get better odds on them in season. Um. And I think that's the point that we try to make a lot, you know, if you can catch a swoon, like if you love the Dodgers, and let's say they just started out poorly. Remember the year they lost the Astros in

the World Series. They started out sixteen and twenty six, and I was able to catch that and write at the Nadia at five to one to win at all, and they didn't get there, but at least it got interesting losing to the Astros. But just for clarification, Dodgers plus three fifty Yankee six to one, Braves and Padres nine to one. That's uh per MGM. Anyway, obviously, odds

will vary, um Matt. Let's let's go to you here, and we'll even start with divisions, because I think this gives us a chance you can answer that previous question. But if we do divisions, maybe it can be a broader conversation. Let's start with the at least um Yankees, no surprise, the Yankees right now, Uh, mineus to fifty to win. The East Blue Jays, the Baby Js at

plus five twenty Rays at plus five thirty five. I'm actually quoting the circuit numbers here at the d red So is not supposed to be their year three to one, and then the Orioles, well, let's let's just say a thousand to one is what I'm seeing to win the A At least that would be something anything in the broader Mortkets are specifically at least that you like in that group. You know, Yankees, You're it's just too chalky

for my taste. And I get that they're the Yankees, But um, you know, some of the unanswered questions around the Blue Jays. Does the young cast of legacy players firmly established their own greatness this year? What's Dunedin gonna be like? Um? You know, does hung In ru pitch to a legit number one all year long? Does Robbie

Ray have a nice bounce backseason Tenner Roark? Every team has questions like this, But I think in the case of the Toronto Buffalo Dunedin Blue Jay's, um, I'm willing to throw a dart at that and at significant plus money to win a division where it's kind of one bully and then a bunch of comers. Yeah, why not the Toronto Blue Jays? For me, I think that the Rays are going to have a hard time replicating the kind of pitching success they had last year without Morton

and snell Um. Replacing those innings with guys like Rich Hill and a cast of veterans um is doable, especially with the brain trust they have, their Kyle Snyder and the the intel that they bring it to make guys better. But the long answer to your question, Gill is I kind of like Toronto as a mid range dog to win that division. All right, plus five um, Paul will go to you same question to a at least. And by the way, do we have a ballpark factor and dunnet?

And I'm not even saying that tongue in cheek. I'm being serious, Jason, do you have anything on that I don't offtop my head. I could look it up. I don't have a park factors to them though, yeah, ball at least to see it very similarly to Matt, so I don't want to just rehash it and say it in a different way. I'm definitely not taking the Yankees. They're uh, kind of like you said, I'd rather try

to play if I really like them. I just kind of stay detailed on it all year and if they hit a swoon where the number gets better, find that number. You You probably find a point at some juncture this year unless they just dominate wire to wire where you can get better than that current number. Um, if you really love the Yankees. But I want I want one of the up starts there with Tampa Bay or Toronto, and I tend to lean toward Toronto similarly to Matt Now.

The Nate Pierson news is a little bit daunting, but I've always been a ross stripling guys, so the fact that he's going to replace him for that, for that growing injury, at least at the outset of the season. But I don't think they're putting a ton on Pierson, like he's not a lynch pin to whether or not they're successful. I think they've got, you know, a front liner in Ryu and then a few guys, you know, some guys that they're really trying to figure out where

they're at. They need a few breakouts in the starting realm to really win that division. But the offense is just devastating, and I think they've put together quite a bullpen too. If Yates gets back on track with Jordan Romano, Raphael Dolis, Ryan Baruki, keep an eye on Julian Merryweather. To my guy Jason Collette has been absolutely huge on him as a potential breakout in either realm as a starter or reliever, maybe even as a hybrid who kind

of has that swingman role. So they've started to really put together some pitching. And if if a Pierson or if Robbie Ray gets back toward where his best season has been. I've never been a huge Robbie Rey guy, though, so I wouldn't put a lot on that, or if my guy Ross Strippling, who you know, was always great with the Dodgers that had a rough season last year,

if he can come through. Plus, I think there's a midseason trade here for a starter that they can get for the stretch run um without having to decimate their system. I like the Jay's as well. This is completely a question for my buddy Randall Gritchard who plays for the Blue Jays, because I love to get his reaction on this privately, But like, is that line up so good that he's platooning this year, Like, what's the story with him?

It really is, at least at the outset. Now, this is a tough one for me because it's a player I love, but I am nervous about. I'm not sure that Tasker Hernandez is a locked in every day superstar now based on I look at that season and I'm not sure that it was anything more than like a

hot fifty game Tasker run that we've seen before. But it counts as a season because of the cut off and and the fact that we only played two months, and so I think there's been a lot of projection that's put on him that I'm not sure I agree with. So I think as he kind of comes back to where Tasker has been in previous years, that will open the door for gret Chuck to play. And then of course, um in the meantime, he's gonna kind up with Tune with to Lez, there will be opportunities for him. I'm

not If I'm gret Chuck, I'm not too worried. I think he's gonna at least get four and fifty point appearances with a good shot at five hundred plus. Jason anything to add at least divisions. I'd lay the Yankees two hundred preferably on credit if I could. Um, I think they win the division, and I don't think the

Blue Jays are bad team. I just think the Yankees are probably gonna win the division and there's a little bit of value left on credit being the key phrase to that, because what is it like macroeconomics want to won the opportunity cost of if you don't have credit, of just having your money tied up for that long sixty two games schedule, but on credit all day long. I'll play the minus two hundred. I think that's the

tough part. By the way, Gail, before we move on, I have a little information on Duneeden and how it's expected to play, at least from Derek Carty at Derek Carty on Twitter does great work with the with the bad projection. Um, he has it to be, you know,

pretty decent as a hitters park. You know, he says it's not gonna necessarily be a hitter's haven, uh in in best hitters park in the league or anything like that, but right now he has it as the seventh best hitters park overall and fifth best home run park in the league, with obviously some wide airbar caveats that that need to apply. There, the fence distance, sixth shortest fence height, fifteenth shortest altitude at sea level, and a good batters

I all plays pretty well for offense there. So I got to imagine that that tracks somewhat similarly to Rogers Center in terms of how much of a hitters park it is. Now the aspects of it might play a little bit differently, but Roger Center is a good hitters park, So they're going from one good hitters park to another. It should be it should be pretty friendly to hit and dune Eden I like that answer, PAULI thank you for that. If if it was the it was the opposite,

I would be very upset with that. But I like, I like to hear the hitter friendly aspect of the Jay's lineup. Met Al Central and let me just say this on on the radio side this morning. To me, the most bettable things that are out there right now are these head to heads that Draft Kings put up, and a couple of them are they did a regional head to head between the White Sox and the Cubs. Paul, you and I talked about this, I think last week

on the show, and maybe Jason I did. But they've got like they've got the White Sox giving twelve and a half games to the Cubs, and then I saw another one White Sox versus the Twins, just head to head with no spread, and the Twins were plus one thirty. I'm like, what if? Yeah, So I get it. People love the White Sox and I'm not saying they're not gonna win the division. Maybe they will. I don't know if they will or not. But the White Sox in

the division market anyway, are plus one ten. Twins are creeping up here at circus plus one twenties, so they're not that far behind anymore. But you know, try plus seven forty five Royals, thirty five to one year Tigers, paul a hundred one? Um, how do you? Where do you stand on the White Sox, Matt? And are you with me that those numbers and head to head seem kind of crazy? They do seem crazy. I was unaware of those offerings, So in about an hour I'll be

on that check it out for my own spies. I think that the you know, there's so much public support right now, so much motivation for the White Sox, and it's understandable, but there's some red flags there too, or at least some yellow flags. Um. The Luis Roberts season was befuddling, and how a guy could could debut with such fanfare and seemingly check every box is first passed through the league and then just completely cavern out in the month of September is a little disconcerting. I'm not

sure what you've got there, at least short term. Long term, we'd all agree talented player and he's going to be there for a lot of years. I think they're gonna miss James McCann um. And I think that Lucas Gelato's public stumping to keep him around was something that we all should have paid attention to, and that that dynamic they had between McCann and grand doll and and it all gets a lot of love in certain communities for

his pitch framing abilities. I don't think anybody who's actually on the field would compare the two defensively in terms of handling a staff. McCann's the guy that they all wanted back there, and then to take nothing against Yasmini's game, So there's some problems. I think some at least caution signs regarding the White Sox love that's out there. Having said that, though the Indians lost a lot, at least a lot of marquee value, they privately feel okay about

their staff anyway. With Safalian Police Act behind Bieber, they seem to invent good starters from places that the uninformed public doesn't imagine. The Twins are interesting to me as well, and I think, um, if you could just omit the month of October from the calendar, that you'd be talking about a really good team every year. But they're warning signs there too. How much longer can you keep relying on Nelson Cruz in his senior statehood to post the

kind of power numbers that he does. At what point do you pull the fire cord on on so No, Given last year's god awful numbers in terms of strikeouts for plate appearance, he had a hundred and eighty six plate appearances and punched out ninety times, and we saw what that did in a short, super short post series. Again, their famine lineups just don't work. Yes, they're better defensively with Simmons and getting Polanco out of that spot um. But I just think that there are problems there too.

Given all that, I think the White Doctor the best team in the AL Central, I got a hard time thinking anybody's gonna beat them. But some of those head to heads are interesting. Given twelve and a half games to a Cubs team, it's fascinating. If they trade Bryant at the break, then maybe the numbers should be more like fifteen. We'll see what happens there. Yeah, there's draft Kis. There's a few of these that are are nutty to me. Again, we're gonna get to the AL West here next. But

Astro's straight up against the Athletics. Astros only minus and nothing. The nothing is the end all be all Pakoda, which of course everybody knows player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm. Who doesn't know that, uh named after journeyman Bill Pacoda, dates Silver's old thing. Now that it's the end all be all. But if you look at the projected Pakoda standings Twins ninety point six wins White Sox eighty two point eight. I mean again, read into that what you will.

But in the A L West and we'll get to this momentarily, Houston nine one point eight, Oakland eighty two point one with the Angels wedged in between them. So it's a pretty interesting where these markets come. They seem very bettable. Matt. Last thing, you said something in there that I'm curious how you feel last week last year's sixty game schedule. You know, how how much do you buy into sixty game stats or does it depend on

what exactly we are talking about? Stat wise? Yeah, I think it's b if you're talking about home runs per plate appearance, Okay, I like that as a as a kind of me type stat. If you're gonna judge player like Alex Bregman or Francisco Lindor on a sixty game shortened two thousand twenty, you're kind of missing the point. So I think it's case by case. It's a stat by stat. Could Luke Void end up winning a home run title in a one D sixty two games season, Yes,

I think he could. Um, But man, sixty games, you just have to get in there and weed out a lot of individual things, and that's where it gets subjective, and that's where I think the analytics community has a problem with the subjectivity of doing that. An excellent point Luke void. By the way, think a hundred to one or to one before the one hundred sixty two games schedule last year and then uh not at all that

number before a sixty game schedule. Anything to add a le central Paul Um No, I kind of come out some you know, I like this White Sox crew, but I also agree that they're not kind of the lockdown because it's not just Pacona. That's a little bit tepi in. You look at what we've out over at fan graphs, and it's eighty seven wins projected for both them and the Twins and um and even Cleveland. I don't think it's terribly far behind that we have them at eighty wins.

If you're projected for eighty, you're just a couple of breakouts from really getting there too. So I just think the division is gonna be a little bit more difficult than than is expected. I don't expect the Tigers to be great or the Royals, but both are projected to win seventies something games, and those are just a few extra wins peeled away from those top teams because both those teams are starting to turn the corner on their

rebuilt like to where they're They're not completely inapt. I don't think either the Tigers or Royals will lose a hundred games this year or be particularly close to it, to be honest. So that starts to undercut some of what the White Sox, Twins and Cleveland can do. And so I am interested, particularly in the Twins over the White Sox as much as I like them. And then, like we said that Cubs, even though I don't even like the Cubs that much, I still think they have

pitching issues. Over and a half is just such a big number. That's still a high quality offense. They do still have a you know, a legit frontliner in Hendrix. He can he can lead the rotation for two d things. I do worry about the rest of the pitching from that point forward, but they don't need to be that good to be to cash that bet there. As far as the White Sox go, I think the real question is is that rotation behind Giulio and Lynn gonna do anything?

Because Kaiko he'll be who he is. I think he'll be solid, if unspectacular. But then you've got Dylan Cez, Carl's Rodan, Michael Kopeck I'm kind of I'm over there and all the Lopez experience and I've I've been a fan, I've I've tried to I've tried to be the champion for that and I'm just no, it's done. So you know that's too open spots there that are really unsettled. I I have little love for Cease uh Copec has the raw stuff, but but kind of where's he yet?

Mentally with everything coming into the year, Rodan is dealt with so many injuries. They are right for an in season train as well to get a starter similar to what I said or Toronto. I just don't think they're the walk away winner. So even though there's questions for Minnesota and Cleveland, UM, I think both of them will be in contention, with Minnesota being more firmly in contention than UH than Cleveland. There to challenge the White Sox.

So I would take some of those bets, namely the one with the twins at plus one thirty on DraftKings versus the White Sox straight up yeah, I'm I'm with you on that, by the way, And Alberto Mondesy is is your stolen base leader this year? Do you think? And stolen base markets. Yes, Okay, short shot, but I think worth it. Jason, I'll let you do the Snakes and Ale Central and Al West your thoughts. I think

I think the White Sox are the hype team. I think they got some players and you know, Louise Robert and Andrew Vaughan kind of players. I'm I'm excited to try to buy their baseball cards whenever I have the chance. Um, I'm not super excited about buying them if I was investing in them as a team right now. I see Christ has minus one thirteen for the White Sox with ten thousand dollar wins limits to win the division. So you know, Chris is basically saying lay lay minus one

thirteen and take your chances. I'm not really looking to take my chances here. I'm I'm really intrigued by the Royals recently, this last week. I watched them play the Dodgers a couple of days ago, and they didn't actually look that bad, and I started thinking, you know, well, how how far away are they really? And and I really like Bobby Witch Jr. Two big fan. I don't know if he's a Rifkie of the Year candidate this year,

but he should actually make it to the majors this year. Um, if I was looking for a really really long shot, maybe Kansas City one to win the division would would be would be my play there. But I'm not really excited about laying the price with with the White Socks. I'm more you know, like we we bought Andrew Vaughan's ri Rikie of the Year, so I'm more interested in playing. I'm interested in and White Sox guys individually as opposed to the team's success. And then to jump over to

the A L. West. I'm down on Houston. I'm very down on Houston. I'm I think they have a lot more questions with they're starting pitching then, and a lot of people are are recognizing that they're asking for a lot of ending and a lot of untested guys and that can always backfire. I'm really down on Oakland. I'm

even more down on Oakland then Houston. I just think they had a bad off season, and you know, I kind of get the feeling that they're they're best players in the clubhouse Chapman and Olds and kind of see the writing on the wall that they're not going to be resigned and that they're they're they're not going to continue to invest in the team. Didn't they just have though Jason didn't. They just have kind of the standard Oakland off season. I mean even a little bit non

standard where they actually went and bought a closer. But like, I don't know, I feel like this is just kind of kind of what they do. They always kind of sit together where it doesn't look as good on paper until it starts to play. I think it's still a pretty pretty stout line up with some good pitching. I like some of their guys on the come up too,

like Lazardo montaz A, j Puck to name three specifically. Yeah, I'm again Puck Puck the guy I'm you know, I've been waiting on him for a couple of years and every he always seems real close and then he has an armed problem. Uh, maybe this is the year he

finally breaks through. It's a it's a good line of good pen It's it's uh, you know, I don't really have many many bad things to say, other than I always just get the impression there they're not going to invest in that last piece they need, like they let Marcus Semion get away when they couldn't resigned him and put that money in Rose and ball. You know, it's just I think eventually that stuff kind of backfires. But my big thing is the Angels. I bet them earlier

they opened five to one to win the division. They're down. You can still get four to one or three and a half to one, etcetera. Uh. What I said earlier in the off season is the reason I'm high on the Angels is because they have the one thing everyone else and the division doesn't have that. Mike Trout. You know, with Mike Trout is always going to have a chance. But I'm I'm also interested in Show Hyotani this year

if he could stay healthy. And that's one of the things we can talk about in the player futures is I'm I convinced myself to be on Show Hyotani m v P again, So I'm I'm expecting a good season out of him, and I'm I'm hoping, I'm hoping the Angels win the division. That's that's my bat right there, by the way. Just because hey, Jason, I'll go ahead, all look, sorry, go I want to jump in there too because I'm I'm high on the Angels as well.

And at three and a half to one, which is kind of what I'm looking at their number being off shore to win the division. Um, I'll give you some more reasons to In addition to what Jason said, I think Griffin Canning is ready to take the next step. MLB dot Com lists him as their number four starter. He's not going to pitch to the number four. He's not gonna his end results are gonna be higher in

the rotation than that. Uh. They went out and got Risela ace Is pretty early in the off season, and it was a move that we all forgot about because of all the sexy stuff that happened with with Lindor and Arronado, et cetera. And I get it, he's not those guys, but he's an impact guy at the end of a bullpen. And I think that there there's finally some clarity there with with what Albert is and is not. And he's not a guy that's gonna play much anymore.

And to take nothing away from his story at Hall of Fame career, but Jared Walsh is um a real plus defender at that position, and I think for that reason alone, he's going to get the kind of plate appearances that maybe a left handed hitter that profiles like he does may not. Yet his defense is going to keep him in there a little bit more. And and he had a really great finish to the season last year.

He made real legitimate change. I'm a big Jared Walsh guy, and it is a small sample, but he made legitimate Swain changes to tighten things up, get quicker to the ball, and it showed in the strikeout gains that were substantial.

He doesn't have to hold all those games to be and you know, you take the two small samples, and he's had in the Major's eight seven plate appearances with a forty strikeout rate and then a hundred eight with a four percent strikeout rate, And honestly, you can just take the two put him together, and I would take the pent strikeout rate that it that it totals up to with that kind of power, Guys with that kind of power can live in that realm. Frankly, he may

be better than that. He may be low twenties Jared Walsh might be. And if he is, that's a potentially high impact player. I'm with you, and I'm also and this is bothering me for fantasy because he's already got three homers in spring. But I've been a long time justin Upton guy, and the only thing I think he needs is health, right. Most of us do right, and most ball players that's all they really need is to be healthy. I think if healthy, he's back to being

an easy thirty homer guy. It's early, it's spring or a weekend, but he already looks healthy with three homers, and I think he's going to be an impact bad that people are kind of sleeping on. I think he's seen. It's like, oh ho home justin Upton. No, if you're putting thirty there with a with a three thirty o b p um in your five spot or six spot, that's really good. Their lineup runs deep. They replace Dangelton

Simmons perfectly with Jose Glaciers. That's the same player. In fact, the Glaciers has been hitting better of recent The one thing I wish they would have done is what their division maates did Houston. I wish they would assigned Jake GODERIZI and I know they've been attacking their pitching via volume with the cantanas and the cobs, which I like those moves. I think one of those guys will will

pop for them in a positive way. Um And and if both of them do, then all of a sudden they don't need to rely on Heaney because of his health issues. Um you know Canning. Oh, I do like a great call out by Matt His health issues is the only thing stopping him. And of course Otani has

health issues. But they finally have depth this year that if things don't quite work out with some of the top tier guys, they have guys that can turn to instead of dipping into the miners for just randos from Triple A. So I like a lot of what the Angels have done, and that does speak to the difficulty that is gonna be put on the Astros or A's to win the division because of the Angels. I will

let everyone finish up. But if when you come to me, I do want to say something about the Astros, and I think they're a little bit better than maybe Jason's given him quite go ahead. So he mentioned the starting pitching. I think it's in a better state than than a lot believe, because I don't think Jason's on his own there and being concerned about it. The one thing you did talk about was innings. I can't really deny that because Lance mc colors he's never pitched more than a

buck thirty. Jose Kitty, Christian Javier a young guys really just kind of stepping in Um from Ravelda is being hurt. That stinks, but he is very adequately replaced by Jake Goderisi, who I really like Greg He's a stud and they go to z is really strong. They do need to figure out, you know, mc colors or Kivy or Javier, one of them needs to go a buck sixty. If they're all going like a buck twenty, that is going to put too much stress on it. But I believe that one of them can. And the guy that I

think is gonna do it is jose Er Katy. I think he is a monster ready to break out and be kind of the next big thing for Houston. You look at his arsenal. It is a complete and really really strong, deep arsenal that he has. He has great command and control. I think he would have been poised for a little bit of a two month breakout last year, but he got hit by COVID. It really lingered with him. When he came back, he was a little wonky as

strikeouts weren't there, etcetera. I think he's the key piece there, so Grinky odories at the one too or Keat He's gonna pitch like a two and give them some depth that they need. I'm more worried about their bullpen than I am. They're starting pitching and Forest Whitley and Josh James are both hurt. If both of them were healthy, I feel really good about them, but I also think the offense is gonna bounce back in a big way. I think Houston should be the favorite. They are, um,

I still really like them to win the division. I do like the Angels. I think they're a worthy bet plus three seventy five at DraftKings. But I think the Ashows are going to be very difficult to thwart this year. And I think a lot of people are sleeping on them a bit because we've kind of tired out on them and they've had some some key injuries that make it look like they're worse than they are. Well, we forgot.

We forgot about Jorda on Albarez last year, and some of that productivity gone with Springer going to Toronto was right back there in house with Albarez, who a couple of years ago between the Big leagues and triple A hit fifty Homer's. I mean, if the knees hold up, they're not going to be missing the presence of Springer

as much. Granted, Albarez isn't gonna lead off and he's not gonna play defensively, but I would agree with everything that's been said about the Astros here recently that they're they're probably gonna be a little better than people think. Let's get through the I never I never forgot about Jordan on Albarez to point that out. Also, I also liked a lot. Uh he's the dude I I doubted when he was pitching for mos lawn in uh in the Mexican Winter League. Actually a year later he was

starting in the World Series. That doesn't happen very often. Uh. Bramber's a Winter League too. I shouted him and in the Dominican So I like both of them. I big fan. I'm just just worried. Uh Bramber is not gonna Getember's gonna try to make it, and yeah, I don't think it's gonna work. I'm actually kind of putting him on the shelf. I'd say like maybe twenty five innings and then he has to he has to get that surgery or whatever. So I'm not worried. I'm not counting him

amongst this. I just think that they've they've got enough. The interesting part is some of these no name relievers that they have that could break out like an an only partis is somebody who has some really good raw stuff, because right now it's Pressley, and you know, I could say a bunch of scrubs for the pun because they have Andre Scrub. But they need to figure out a

little something in the bullpen beyond Pressley. I I do grant that, but I think that they will and that's something that you can kind of build on the fly. And they still have depth in their system. It's not high name prospect uh prospect players right now that that everyone knows, but they are. They have such a deep system that they're always churning out talent. So I'm just

reluctant to completely give up on them. I don't think they would have been a sub five team if the whole six month season and played out last year, And so that's why I just say, just just keep it, just keep an eye on Louis Garcia could be a lynchpin to their bullpen. Uh dude, dude throws flames. He's not ready to start yet or be like an instrumental part of the rotation, but I think it could be

a big part of their their bullpen. There. Let's let's go to the NL guys, because otherwise this will be an old school sleeper in the bust for our podcast here, so we don't want to do that. I want to get to the individual awards all right in at least um. It's a scrum for sure in the NL East, and it's reflected in the odds mets even without Trevor Bauer here at circuit anywhere, your short shot at plus one thirty five. The braves are plus one forty. That will

vary based on the book. Braves I think are typically the short shot. UH gnats are plus six eighty five, Phillies plus five, and then the Marlins. One of these things is not like the other. They're fifty two one. Matt Eleen either direction here or any of the directions. I've said all off season long that the Lindor notwithstanding and with all the other moves made within the division, I consider the Braves the class the division like the incumbents.

But if you're gonna push me into a sleepy second pick um, if if you think that Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber can sip off their two thousand eighteen fountain

of youth, and why not? And if you think that Brad Hand is going to be the big impact guy that I do and eventually take over as the full time closer for Daniel Hudson despite matchup problems, um, then and and if you think that Strasburg comes back completely from injury, and if you think that Max Erzer is going to be super motivated in a contract year, Uh, it really doesn't matter contract you're or not with that

guy's motor. By the way, but I kind of I'm being talked into the Nationals by some of the d c apologists, not unlike yourself, Guilt, who I worked down here. So I'll play right into the narrative on the belt Way for you and say, um, Nationals are going to be sneaky good. You're on to me, man. Uh you like that. You like the Natinals too, don't you, Paul? You're wearing a national with with purpose here? This was this was intentional. I definitely like them, especially at their

odds here. If they were the favorite, maybe not, but the fact that you get them, uh you said plus six eight five plus six hundred on draft kings. Uh, they're they're They're always listed at least third in the division. So you're getting some good odds there that I think are worth taking. I do believe that Bell and Schwarber are really going to add to that offense. Uh, folks

that believe in the Carter Key Boom breakout. It's not required for them to do well, but it's certainly something that could happen and really add to their to the bottom line of their offense there, and all of a sudden that offense would run you know, seven eight deep um. You know, with with high quality talent there, Soto, Turner, Bell, Schwarber is going to be the core and then Robeless Key Boom if they can break out and then cash on young gums just kind of check punch the clock

every day and do their thing. They're not special, but they're not they're not poor either. What it really comes down to is that rotation. Though it's Corby gonna bounce back, he seemed to have a little bit of issue with the ramp up last year and never really got going. I believe in him, though I'm not. I'm not discarding him after the two months season and then it comes down to Strasbourg, as Matt said, so I don't I won't believe at that point because he's dead on with that.

That's really that's their lynchpin for sure. Um, if he can give them at least a buck forty. I know that's not a huge innings count, but I think most guys at the high end are gonna be around one eighty, so he wouldn't be too far. You know, it wouldn't be that bad if he quote unquote only gave one forty. Because he's he's due for an eye. I'll stand every year for something a little, a little nagging back whatever. Um. And so we'll see how the Carpal Tunnel turns out.

For Strasbourg. My question would be the last two spots that lester ross there. But if your four or five is really your big question, like, that's not that's not the end of the world. That is something that you can kind of play with on the fly. I think they have one of the best bullpens they've had in

a long time. I thought they did last year to coming in and you know, remember they were kind of like the Tigers of the n L for a while there, where they had all this great hitting and starting pitching and every time October came, the bullpen failed them. Well, I think their bullpen is strong now. They have hand Rainy, Hudson, Wilson, Will Harris, excuse me as four guys that they can reasonly rely on. Austin both is somebody that I think

can jump into the rotation too. If for some reason Ross and Lester keep him out by performing well, then Both becomes a really nice bullpen piece for them. And I mentioned Louise Garcia with with Houston, they the Nats

have Louis Garcia as well. Now he's an offensive guy, he's very young, but he did debut last year and I think he could end up being a midseason supplement if something goes awry with the aforementioned key boom, or if maybe Starling Cash was a little bit below average, they could get a youth infusion there with Louis Garcia. So I love this Nats team and I think they're a great bet at their odds. Jason uh if you like Billies or than that, I would be more inclined

to bet them to make the playoffs. You can get plus to eighty five on the Phillies, and I think plus one thirty on the nap As opposed to betting them to win the division. I think it's a really competitive division. I haven't haven't bet any division futures here mainly because when I look at the teams, and I look at the lineups and and the rotations, and I think about the uh, you know, how many games are

gonna play against each other? I feel the value. You can get a lot of value in these head to head matchups all season, you know, to grom Birth, mac Freed or Drombert, any of the Marlins pitchers is their top pitchers all compare Lopez, Um, you can get a lot of good prices, I think all season on Phillies pitchers, Verse Braves pitchers, et cetera. Uh. And I don't think the middle of this division, the Phillies and Nats are

are that much behind the Mets or Braves. I mean, like the middle of the Phillies rotation Bomb Harper Real Mudo is as good as anybody's middle three UM I love all three of those guys. Toto's the best player in in baseball not named Mike Trout, and he's on what's the third fourth best team in the division. I love, so I would like to bet him to win the Triple ground UH this year or any year. But I think that that the value in this division is going

to be on a game by game basis against each other. Um, that's that's what I'm kind of looking at here. Yes, No, it's better than Division. I like it similar to the Central UH where the bottom bottom team in this division, the Marlins. They're not going to be a hundred lost team. I think they're They're They're not great. I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs again, but I think they're

a solid team. It's gonna be tough to go into Miami and just sweep three or even get the two out of the three, two out of three every time you go in there, because they just have, you know, solid average everywhere and a really burgeoning rotation that that I think could could turn the corner. They could maybe do it this year and really surprised, but I think next year is when things really start to pop off for them. Without Kantara, Pablo a little Pez six dough Sanchez.

Don't sleep on Trevor Rodgers either. He's a nice left twenty three year old who's on the come up. They think their bullpens a little short and their offense is a little short of impact players, but like I said, they're kind of solid average everywhere. So they get seventy five wins that again is going to take away some of those supplemental wins from the other four clubs and

just making an even bigger cluster. They could play spoiler in September there by taking a few key series against whomever is at the top there and allowing another team to jump up there, which sort of triggers the question and this sort of random in the middle, but what is the team either a L or n L that nobody, not no, no one with conventional wisdom is talking about right now to make a I'm not even say a deep playoff run too, but but to be in a wild card race into the last weeks of the season

that no one's thinking about. Jason already hit on it. I was because I was gonna expound on the Royals as well. I I totally agree that that's a that's a team to keep a close eye on. Uh. They've got some really high impact bats with Merrifield, Perez Soler, Mandacy, you know, he can be very volatile, and even Carlos Santana, you know, gets on base like like crazy and has good power. So their line up runs pretty deep, especially

if Andrew Benintendian Hunter does or do anything. But I think where they really stand out as they're pitching, their rotation is just solid. They have a guy every day that goes out there and can give you five six quality innings, and then a bullpen that runs pretty deep. If Greg Holland is indeed back the way he was last year, he can be the nice closer there with Josh Stoumont, Scott Barlow, Jesse Hahn. They brought back Wayne Davis.

They're getting the band back together. Unfortunately, Calvin Herrera retires, so they can't get the whole H d H crew back. But don't sleep on Kyle Zimmer too. He's a long time you know, he's thirty now, but he's a big time prospect whose injuries just ravaged his entire career. But he stayed healthy last year and looked great out of the bullpen. If he can find that health for a full season, I could see eight E quality innings out

of him out of the bullpen too. So I think it's casey as that as that team that's way off the map that no one's talking about that could do some that could do some damage this year, and if everything broke right, then all of a sudden, whoa are they in playoff contention? On on August first? Mad, is there one for you? Well, I mean, boy, Paul's going for a team way off the map because yes, you're right. I mean, people aren't giving the Royals much of a

puncher's chance to plan the postseason. I'll take a team that's slightly off the map. And because the NL East is so crowded for reasons we just documented, Um, nobody's really considering the Phillies that team to to kind of uh move themselves past the rest of that pack. And it's for good reason, right, I get it that that was a historically bad bullpen, not just last year, but for the full season in two thousand nine too. We're talking about a really a really alarming set of numbers

that came from that group. The reasons for optimism aren't based on pitching. For me, I think they're gonna win a lot of slug fests, and I think they could be dangerous getting into postseason contention. I love Alec Bom. I get it. He's unrefined defensively, not sure what his long term future is at which corner, but he can hit and and they're gonna they're gonna endure some wonky defensive nights because he can really hit. Um. I guess

the Phillies would be my identifier for that one. I'm not gonna go as far as to say the Orioles or Pirates are going to shock the world this year, but once again, all of you have forgotten to include giants magic in your models. I just want to that's true, and I'll just give a quick I won't do a whole rundown, but the Mariners could arrive ahead of schedule too. They have a they have a gob gobs of talent that's already in the majors. And then, of course Jared

Keelni's on the cusp. I know he got hurt in spring, but I think that I think they're kind of interesting too. They have a burgeoning rotation themselves. I think Marco Gonzalez is who he is. He's kind of the lefty Kyle Hendricks if packs and bounces back. Don't sleep on Kakuchi. I think, I think. I think the Mariners could also be that off the radar team that nobody's talking about. They need a lot to break, right. But that's what

we're talking about here with these ball clubs. They just need one or two more trades with the Mets where they flog them and make them look terrible to win a World Series. And that's the crazy thing is and then all of a sudden, the Mets turned around, and then and you know they're in the mix for the favorites for the World Series. Despite that, imagine they also had Kelly coming up this year, Like how disgusting would

that be for that ball club? With everything else that they did, Just sprinkle a little Jared kelln Nick on top, and wow, that'd be nuts. You can't wait to get to these individual categories. Let's wrap up of the divisions here n L Central because there's not much to talk about in the NL West other than do you believe in the Padres or not? But n L Central, with apologies to the NL least, this is the most competitive for the betting markets, and I think it's accurate. Brewers.

I'll give you the circuit numbers anywhere because I'm here at the day. Brewers plus one thirty to win the division. Brew Um pardon me? Cardinals plus one thirty, Brewers plus two seventy five. Red's your reds POLLI plus two nine, and then the Cuppies at plus six nine, just for giggles, the Pirates one fifty five to one. I did this to Paul earlier, like a three Pirates. I was like, I asked the wrong guy. But I think if you ask, yeah, I can do a lot of people. I ask more

most people, most casual fans, they wouldn't be able to do. So. Um Man will start with you, who do you believe? Who do you not? Who do you believe in? Who do you not believe in? In this division? Well, for me, this is the most fascinating division in baseball. Not the best, but the most fascinating because the log jam and the discussion you can have between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers is is one that I changed my stripes on daily.

Even before the Ronado trade, I felt like the Cardinals were the team to eat in the division despite not having Dacoda Hudson available this year. I'm kind of banking

on a return to form for Miles Michaelis. I'm kind of banking on Adam Wayne right being Adam Wainwright, even though there are those that say at his advanced career age and after the workload that he had last year, and it wasn't much of a workload in the sixty game season, but the point was he posted up and was great without the cavern that would be entailed in a in a longer stretch. I liked them enough to

feel like they were the favorite. I couldn't understand then, for the life of me, how the Pacoda projections had them finishing third behind the Brewer and Cubs, And I'm I'm not a great believer in what the Cubs have on paper right now. The Brewers of the team that that are really interesting, and I think part of those projections for them favorably come from the fact that when

they have a lead, they're not going to lose. Between Hayter and Williams, and having to deploy those guys on different nights isn't a problem because we know about how they handle Hayter's workload and they don't back to back him. Um. They rarely try to avoid him more than three or four hitters in a game. That's okay because they have Williams as a as an A or a one a UM. I also like what they did in the offseason waiting

for the whole market to come to them late. That Jackie Bradley Jr. Signing was great, even though we're all unclear as to how Ian Lorenzo Kaine are going to code share center field. I really like what they did with Colton Wong Kestan Hera as a full time first baseman. Fine. I think he's a better hitter than people know, and I think he's perhaps a guy that could be a sneaky contender for a batting championship someday, especially if one Soda gets traded to the American League. Maybe that's what

it would take. But I kind of like the Brewers now, and I'm I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, thinking no way the Brewers finish above the Cardinals, But now I can kind of see a pathway to that. Uh. Still, having said that, I've encouraged people to do those tickets for the Cardinals. Um that corner infield that they've put together is unbelievable. They cleared the deck in the outfield

by moving Dexter Fowler out of there. Dylan Carlson is going to get a full season's worth of that bats. It's time for Tyler O'Neil to take the next step in his career. Same with Harrison Bader, who's got a great skill set. He just has to figure out a where to get on base more often. If you if you ask me for one team, I'll say St. Louis.

And what's interesting, Dakoda you referred to that Matt Pakoda has Brewers at eight eight point six, Cubbies at eighty five point seven, Cardinals at eighty point one, and much of that is because they only project the Cardinals on offense. The run production is what lacks in terms of the Dakoda projections only seven fifty four runs, which if you

just base it compared to other n L teams. The only teams that they project to score fewer runs in the NL the Marlins, the Pirates, the Giants, and the Rockies. That's the list. I just don't see that. Yeah, really, that doesn't that doesn't check and that doesn't check out for me. Like, I don't know, I think they're line up runs pretty deep. I do think Tylan O'Neill, you know, needs to kind of take that step forward, but he's not. He's not necessary for them to have success. That would

kind of be supplemental. I think Edmund Goldschmidt, Ernado de Young, Carlson, Yadi as their top six is really solid. I love Dylan Carlson, by the way. I think he's going to have a really nice breakout here. You know, it's wilds on our projected standings at Fangraphs, we don't have a single team in that division with over five hundred. The Cardinals are tops at eighty and then the Brewers at seventy nine, comes the Reds at seventy seven, and then the Pirates at sixty five. That's wild to me. I

don't agree with that, by the way. I think obviously there's a couple of those teams will be above five. It's gonna be competitive, there's gonna be a lot of in fighting, and you mentioned, you know, I'm a Red skuy I'm still sticking with them, but I do have a really hard time splitting those top three teams. I'm really just not in on the Cubs, but I look at Reds, Brewers, Cards, and it's hard for me to

really split them apart too much there. So it's gonna come down to kind of those those unforeseen breakouts and kind of those those edges there that that we can't really see. That's gonna decide the division. I think I will talk about the Reds since I think Matt did adequately adequately discussed the Cards and Brewers, and I don't want to just rehash that. So with the Reds for me, obviously, the offense flopped last year, and that was supposed to be a big part of what they were able to do.

It's why they lost in the playoffs. They couldn't score to save their lives. I still think that's a high quality offense, though I know it underperformed. I would love to see what they could have done in six months. Winker, Castiano, Suarez, Moose. I like Nick Senzel. He needs to stay healthy, of course, but if he stays healthy, there's a big breakout year. Votto just keep getting on base. I know that he just you know, he's not Votto at all anymore. But

he still gets on base very well. Frankly, I think they should consider leading him off. I know he's slow, but with how well he gets on base and it's like a guaranteed three fifty ov P, just let him lead off. I mean, they have Jesse Winker leading off right now. He's not very fast either, so I don't worry about the like old school lineup of having to have some speed at the top. And then I really

like their pitching. Remember there were rumors that they were gonna trade Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo, which angered me, and I'm not even a Reds fan, but I was like, are you kidding me? You're giving it a two month season and now you're gonna break it down. Thankfully, that just was just rumors. They didn't do that. They moved right cell Iglesias, that's fine, though they have a lot of depth. They replaced him with Sean Doolittle, and Agasias

is better because he's been more healthy. But if Doolittle finds a bit of health, then he'll be fine. T j Antone is a kind of a sneak guy who could be on either side the rotation or the bullpen. He's going to be an impact picture. I really like the Michael rens in transition to the rotation. I think he's got what it takes to be a legitimate piece of that rotation. It reminds me of the c. J.

Wilson transition. Remember when he moved from relief to starting kind of out of nowhere and everyone's like, what this isn't gonna work And he transitioned immediately and he was like a two inning guy off rip. Now I'm not sure it's a different game now. So Lorenzen is not going to be asked to go two in things, but I think he can go a hundred and fifty pretty comfortable. He's twenty nine years old, he's out of the injury nexus. Uh. He has a lot of swing and miss stuff. He

throws hard, he's super athletic. I think that's gonna be a big key piece for the Reds and it's going to really help them, uh in their quest to win that Central. So I still really like them. It is a three team battle for me. So maybe I don't play anything on the division. I I kind of played in season the way Jason was talking about with the with the n L. Least I believe but I like that Reds team a lot. I think the Brewers are solid.

Cardinals are the short favorite, though. That's why I can't really bet them, because they're too far ahead of Like their plus one oh five at DraftKings to the Brewers three hundred and the Reds three thirty. They're not that far ahead of them, So that's why I can't bet them. Even though I I don't mind that Cardinals team. I just I'm gonna take the I'm gonna take the longer shots for sure. I'm still tripping off fan graphs NFC East Wild, the NL Central. Yeah, yeah, it's crazy way

by that. I hadn't seen that until we just nil. I just looked at it right now and I was like, that is that is wild? I mean, it's not gonna happen that way. I just don't see it. But that is insane that that's that's how it's projected. Jason, n L Central. I'm assuming these those four teams, everybody but the Pirates way too short to play for the season. I would imagine maybe the Cubs seven and one isn't too short, but I doubt you. I don't know if you like the Cups. And then n L West, you

can snake this again. Um, how do you feel about the Padres is really the only question there, I would imagine, you know, the first time I looked at the n L Central, I was like, I'm not gonna bet anything here. It's fell drunk and I ended up with two division winner prop I bet. I bet the Cardinals. I bet them at last start two times, uh, or right after the erinnaudo news, by the way, I can get behind that.

I think the value still if you can get Brewers three to one or or above three to one, that's uh, that's where the value would be right now. I think I think every team in the division other other than the Pirates has like something nice I could say about them. The Reds, their team drive lines. To me, I always think any picture they get is fascinating and it's I love them, and all of a sudden, A Cardinals are nice. I can't really say anything bad about them. Uh, Cubs,

I don't know. I don't. I don't really attention to them as much as other teams for some reason. And the only thing I really like, I think the Pirates have some nice upcoming prospects. Brian Hayes is my review of the year favorite in the n L and everybody else's I think too. Uh, But then you jump over to the n L West. Not very exciting to me. I mean the Padres. Padres are kind of the high

hype organization team right now. Dodgers are the Dodgers. I'm gonna watch them pretty much every night, but I expect them to win. I expect them to have multiple award winners. I'd be shocked if we're not talking about Dodgers in the World Series. And you know, it really to me a question of who they're gonna play. Uh. So, yeah, I don't really have anything exciting to add on then LS, I think. I think it's Dodgers, Padres, and there's a

couple other teams. You know, Giants are Giants are right there, but not not close unfortunately, Matt, where do you stand on the Padres? Uh? You know, it's hard not to be excited about the moves they've made. But I will quote baseball writer A. J. Cassivell who had a good line regarding their offseason spending spree. Uh. And I'm paraphrasing here,

but it wants something like this. Just when the Podres started feeling good about themselves over acquisitions of Blake Snell and you darbish Rodgers rolled in ninety million boulder named Trevor Bauer in the middle of I five somewhere near can't handle them, and that kind of is it right?

I mean, the Pods start to get a little froggy, and here we are that that team that's got the perennial regional chip on its shoulder for being ignored by everybody that isn't in the small envelope that San Diego and the Dodgers just reassert themselves by spending um, you know, more of that capital uh and and doing it on a guy that's fresh office, Cy young Ward and in

a really good piece. The Dodgers won a World Series last year with David Price not pitching an inning, and the depth there is staggering, and I would agree with Jason, we're probably talking about a team that's gonna have multiple individual winners and get to that. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers are in the World Series again, despite San Diego being good and making for a pretty fun summer down there. As soon as Trevor Bauers sided

with the Dodgers. I just bet the Dodgers at plus three forty five, right, which is like against everything you should ever do ever, but to the point of them being so stacked, just gonna put it in the account, just forget I even have it. Then come October be like, oh yeah, look at this plus three on the Dodgers, feeling very confident about that number. Um, all right, this is the fun part. By the way, before we get to the individuals season wins, Jason, let me just point

this to you. Is there any season win that you would even bet right now? Or is that market pretty much calibrated to where it ought to be? Well, so, most of the places I've looked through that I have credit at right now have season win percentages as opposed to over unders. And on one hand, it's it's a lot of math. I don't want to do more math right now. And uh, the other thing is is the odds.

I'm not super compelled the lock up money on a you know, over eighty two or eighty four or whatever some yo schem I like when I could just bet yesterday no to make the playoffs. So I spent the least amount of time on wind totals this year of every market, and it just happens to get the short end of the stick this year. I think there was a ton of value to lock up money. There was, like the really early numbers that came out of winning that or something, but I didn't have It's funny you

and I didn't. We never talked about that, but you know, I write this MLB manifesto that I call it every year for Point Spread weekly at Visa where I give my season win totals, and they've done quite well over the years. I it's a combination. I don't have time. But also I didn't gravitate towards them this year. Same thing, Like, for whatever reason, I was like, this doesn't feel like the right market to bet. It doesn't feel nearly as as profitable as some of the others. So interesting that

we came to that independently. Let's let's do this. Let's try to do this as rapid fire as possible. UM, I'll try to make the preamble. Sure, but let's start with m v P. And let's begin with the a L m v P, which is obviously extremely top heavy with Mike Trout. Uh no surprise there that he is the only person who's not in double digits. Mike Trout is roughly at plus two ten uh in the in the market here in the American League, and then everybody

else is double digits plus. I'm saying plus two twenty five here at circle. So let me not uh again always shop around with these, um you brought up show Aotani earlier. Let me just start with him and I put this out some variation of this each and every year, although I don't think I did last year because of the mess of But if Showotani and by the way, five man rotations supposed to be excuse me, six man rotation, five days rest or whatever, you know, it's supposed to

be pretty normal. Not a lot of restrictions on him on the batting side this year, at least when I'm hearing. If he goes and I'll do this sort of the hypothetical, you know, very goods on each side. If he goes twelve and six and has a three point three zero E r A but also hits twenty two homers and has seventy seven r B I and hits to seventy you know, I'm just I'm just kind of come up with the numbers that are very good on both sides,

but not out of this world of both sides. But somehow, whatever the numbers are, that add up to a war that is comparable to the best of each right, the best in the league. Do voters Jason vote for a guy like Shoe Otani or does he have to be spectacular on one side or the other? He he has to be spectacular on both sides, and Mike Trout has to have a less than Mike Trout season. That's that's

the hardest part. And if you look, you look at the a L M v P market with Trout is the only guy in single digits, and then you see Alex Bregman's and the one and he still hasn't appeared in the spring training game yet. He's kind of coming back from injury or whatever, and he'll be fine. He's

a good player. But if if you're looking to fade Trout, if you think somebody besides Trout has a chance to win, I think there's a ton of value in this market because you're going against Trout, you're going against Alex Bregman. Every other player is twelve to one or greater. So if you could make a case for somebody you know, Jose Bray, you or whoever is farther down the list. For me, it's it's a fanny and it's it's simply Otani because his uh, his ability to do, you know,

things on both sides, hit and pitches is unmatched. It's unique, and I think it's thirty three to one. It's good beat. I thought Will Hill has fifty two one. That's also a really good bet. Um, that's my bat in this market. I'm gonna take the really unique guy. What did you what number do you get? I got thirty three. I'm I'm gonna try to get this Will Hill number today, but I'm already I'm already in at thirty three. I don't know how much more I want. Um, it might

get a little bit more. Matt anything americanly m VP any thoughts. Yeah, I really like what Jason had say. They're about if you're looking for somebody to fade Mike Trout with, look deeper in the board, and I usually look, you know, when I'm endorsing such things. Guys that are trying to bounce back. So the chalk isn't nearly as big. Glabor Torres kind of fits that profile. For me. Uh,

it was a weird year for him. If the transition to shortstop is giving him the kind of trouble that people are speculating it is, then it's probably a stay away from But if last year was just an anomaly and he played a little heavier than he should have, as some people have suggested, he bounces back. Um, you can never go wrong thinking about a Yankee for m v P, just for all the reasons we know to be true about voting bias and national TV and that

kind of run. Uh. And I'd also consider Aaron Judge a little chalky for this every year, even though he too is bouncing back from injury. I'd look for a guy trying to come back like Glabor Tauris. Why not yea Tauras seventeen to one, just scorting circuit numbers, Judge seventeen one, Mayhew, anyone, anyone believe any interesting? Danton? Danton forty, I think I think that's the real nice one. If you stays healthy, he can he can leave the league

on home runs, etcetera, etcetera. If he stays healthy. Obviously the big but that's why you give forty Paul Yeah, I mean, um, I'm gonna I'm gonna kind of stick with the guys I talked about on on the radio show last week a couple of weeks ago. Actually, Kyle Tucker has moved a little bit on Draft Kings now is at forty to one. But given that I like that Houston squad and I like the dynamic uh profile that he has as a player who can do everything, I think it could have a huge breakout season and

and and be a leader on that Houston ball club. There. You know, I agree with passing on Bregman. And you know, looking at if you if you like Houston, pass on Bregman, look at any of the other guys they have on the board. Care at forty, Tucker at forty, Alvarez at thirty three. Those are all Draft Kings numbers. That's definitely where I would go if I was super big on on Houston. I do like them. And that's why I

say I like that Tucker number. This guy's not on DraftKings, but he was on William Hill when we talked, and it was lords Gary L Jr. Who I really like, and he was two hundred to one, and so I really think obviously a really long shot like that. I like this. I like this Jay's team. As we discussed earlier taskers at eighty on DraftKings, I think Lordens Garryll is better than Taoscar. Simple fact is, um, you gotta

go find garyl somewhere. William Hill had it the last time you and I spoke about this, and so I like him at at two one. You are not a ta Oscar guy. That's the biggest thing I picked up from you. No, no, no, I actually love Tascar. You can find me hype and Tascar as a sleeper breakout pick. I don't like him now as a bona fide star, and this is mostly a fantasy take because now he's

like a top fifty fantasy pick. So I'm just concerned that that people think he has arrived, but I didn't see enough changes in him, uh to suggest that he has arrived here. So I know, I'm kind of fence sitting a little bit. I like the player, I just don't like the fantasy cost and like the the the a l m v P cost. Right now, I would want other things. And Gariella Jr. Is right there with him,

and I kind of had them neck and neck. And now to askers shot up in price, and Gariella is still more affordable on the fantasy market and on the l m v P market. N l m v P much more competitive again the Dodgers, we said earlier, this could be Dodgers against the field. Mookie's plus seven fifty. Uh, Bellinger's eight to one. Now I'm quoting MGM. I'm all over the place. Seekers now down to twelve to one.

Everybody else Soto plus seven fifty. He's the short shot, along with bets A Kuna eight to one, Tattists Jr. Nine to one, Freemintend to one, Eronado, and Yellow twelve to one. If you're looking for a bounce back from Yellow, everybody else fifty to one or longer a full discloser. Jason and I have a Corey seeger m v P

ticket twenty five to one. Yeah, we had him last year at some I can't remember what our price was, thirty to one or something last year, and then he trolled us by getting Yeah it was six with any trolled us by getting m VP, and both the NLCS and the Word in the World Series somehow finished ninth by the way during the regular season, which was ridiculous. Um, Matt,

who do you like here? This is such a stacked market. Gosh, I'm just gonna give you the player that I think is the best player in baseball, best offensive player in baseball, and that's One Soto. I know he's the short shot here, but uh and you won't find him at the top of You won't even find him top five on the Zips home run leader projections. That's a Kuna that they think is gonna win that Mantle and I wouldn't wouldn't

fight him on that. I just think that one profile, one Soto profiles as such a grown man baseball player for a guy who's still in the infancy of his of his career, he takes the most grown man at bats of anybody his age that I've ever seen in my life. And I'm not old enough to have seen

Ted Williams play. But if you really get deep into the analytics, and I would for to Paul and all this stuff, the historical comps that you make with Soto among players in an age twenty one or younger season, waited runs created plus among left handed hitters, um home run rate plus, walk rate, It's crazy how good this guy is. And then you put the eyeball test to him, and he he plays like he's the most experienced guy at the plate. Every time he's up there, he's gonna

get four or five plate appearances every day. He's not a guy who's going to be moving in and out of a lineup because of some matchup minded front office. The body of works going to be there. He plays for a sexy team in the Northeast. He's the guy for me. It's it's Won Soto and all others. By the way, Paul, you recommended what we were doing the hit we for the hits market blon Soto. Was that one actually got that? So you're in for that ticket if if it's excellent, great work. I mean, that was

such a bananas number. I mean, just to echo a little bit and expound on what matt saying about Soto, I mean, he's a Jen Errations, Pooholes or Cabrera from the left side. And the comps that he draws based on what he's done so far is like Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron Ted math uh excuse me, Ted Williams,

Eddie Matthews, like the best of the best. Like it's obscene how good he is, and he is just twenty two, So even as a short short shot there, it does make sense to get in on him, and I do like the gnats, but I'm gonna go with his teammate for a little bit of a longer shot and go with Trade Turner at fifty because I think part of

what he can do can benefit from from what Soto does. Now, it's a little bit of a different profile to win m VP, so he would have to he would have to kind of maximize where his powers that but he's not going to be leading off this year. They're gonna go with Roblists and Soto one two, and it looks like Turner my bed three. I think he's gonna about

two or three. Either way, he needs to tap into a little bit more power to win m v P. I don't think a sub twenty homer season is necessarily gonna cash m v P, but I think his slash line is gonna be awesome. In fact, I wouldn't even put his two months numbers beyond him as a full season. He went three eight, That would be amazing to do

for a full year. But Trade Turner has the skills to do it, and I know steals don't play majorly in uh in a in an m v P type of vote, but it's a nice little add on there to say, Oh, he was also having amazing base running because he's one of the most efficient base runners in the game, and that's gonna help him score tons of runs. I think I think a gaudy runs number can help him here, like a hundred and twenty five runs ninety

Ribby's twenty four homers. And then like I said, a crazy slash line would would put Trade Turner in the mix there. It's gonna be hard to beat his own teammate, but the two of them, they're gonna kind of prop each other up. And so if you want to go short and along, maybe you get in on both if you really like the gnats, which again I do. Uh. You know that the triple crown. Back to the sodo

for a second. Remember remember when it was the Miguel Cabrera Mike Trout motto a mono year, and I remember taking the position is there was the analytics community was like, oh, but Trout to war is better. But you know they're going I'm like, yeah, you can't go you know forty five years, where we've talked about no one's gotten the triple crown since Carlo Stremski did in sixty seven, and then once somebody does hit the triple crown like Cabrera did, act like that's not m v P worthy, Like, just

stop with you. It was m v P worthy, right, But but you can't think I think Trout had a really strong case. I mean, especially considering as we've evolved, we realized that the triple crowning, Wow, cool is a little bit arbitrary too, right, But that's so. But that's what I'm saying. So this is the point of the question.

So back in I think there was a historical reason where you had to give it to Cabrera, and then whatever happened the following year, then we can talk about different things and we can evolve, but like, you can't ignore it. Have we gotten to the point now in one let's say Son does get the triple crown, that he would not be a lock for the reasons that you were stating, Paul, like, that's that's interesting to me.

I think so, But I think where he kind of might different cheat himself a little bit is he's not an inept defender. I think there's this idea that he's just some lug out there in the Outfits twenty two. He's pretty athletic for for what he is, you know. And by the way, to their credit, young Poohles and Young Cabrera were a bit more athletic and they had some defensive value. So I don't think and that's where

the gap really split. There was because in War Trout really jumped above Magie because he was playing a quality center field while Maggie was playing a mediocre to pour first base, and so that really balanced things out. Soto can add some defensive value, he can add some base running value, and if he does win a triple Crown, it might come with like a four thirty o b P,

which is just obscene. And so I think, you know, even with the the analytics forward voters, they're gonna see the they will look past the average a little bit, but they're gonna see the l v P and the slug and they're gonna see how good he is. That I do think a Soto triple crown would play a little bit differently than Trouts. Bets could kind of be in that Trout role there and then they go against each other. I think you'd be much closer there where

the analytics side would actually be. There would be a contingent that is arguing for Soto, whereas it was kind of analytics versus old school in that Trout versus Cable and deal there when he won the triple crowns. I think it would play a little bit different because these are human beings, you know, voting on these things. It's always interesting to me how those voters might have evolved or might not have evolved, um, through the years, and

I think we're in a different place, um, Jason. Besides seek or anything here, uh speaking of triple crown winners, uh, or potential Mike just Stremsky, what number do you need on him? Baby? That's my kind of talk right there. Yuh Stremsky three and twenty five to one at CIRCA, give me fifty bucks on that, I do it. Uh Yeah. So obviously my thing was that before is that he's he's taking Ballinger's spot in the lineup and he's still you know, almost double his odd You can get him

twenty to one at Vandals. Still, that'd be the best number I've seen, Um, Cody Bellingers like eight to one, ten to one. I think that's bad number. Obviously. I could say all sorts of nice things about Soto too. The one one of those two things Westgate got right on their opening numbers is they made him like five to one for the m v P. Yeah, I think

that's the more more reasonable number. I I personally haven't bet him yet, just because I'm trying to bet less players this year instead of just scattering all over the board. I do think he's the deserved favorite, and I love him. I would bet any player to win the Triple Crown, basically betting him to win the Triple Crown buying his baseball cards when I can autograph baseball cards. But now my money's on Seager contract year. Uh, playing for the

team with the highest projected win total, best team in baseball, etcetera. Uh, my seeker, That's that's where my money is gonna be. Probably gonna bet more on them. So I love Oh. I know I would too if the price is right. I love that you're still buying baseball cards in the top shot era. That's why I love you, man. Yeah, I don't have a I don't have a right now.

It is booming I know top shots on the come up, but the but the card market as a whole, whether they're when, whether they're n F T s or live cards that you can get, it's it's an exploding market. Jason could do a whole podcast on it, like he's all over it alright, A L and N L SI Young together, um n L C I Young the short shot, no surprise. Jacob de Grand plus three seventy five. I really want to bet Trevor Bauer just because I trust

him implicitly. Plus nineve at circa. Those are the the single digit prices in the National League Darvish, by the way, eleven and one is the next. And then in the American League American League Cy Young, it's Garrett Cole of course plus two eighty five, also in single digits. Oh, Shane Bieber, pardon me, co favorites Shane Bieber also plus two eighty five with the Tribe and Lucas Giolito the only other one in single digits at plus seven twenty five. Matt Any thoughts at L or a l uh you

know for the National League? Where where's Walker Bueller on that board? Because my long standing contention on Cy Young award winners, and it's less relevant now than it used to be because wins have not been valued at the same rate that they were twenty even five years ago. But I always go back to when Barrysio when his Cy Young Award, he was a number three in the

rotation behind Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. His matchups were a little softer as such, and it just was it was a place for him to shine as opposed to getting Clemens every five days or whomever that number one matched up against. So the fact that Walker Bueller does not occupy a number one spot, and for all the reasons that Jason just documented, pitching for the team with the highest project win total with a great bullpen that's going to score runs. He pitches in l a all

the sexy stuff that shouldn't matter, but does. Um he'd be a guy that I act for that what's the number on him? One? So like that, like with m v P, we could do a you know, there could be a prop Jason, you were the first person to say this. I think, Um, Bauer, Bueller and Kershaw against the field. Kershaw one, by the way, that's my idea. Yeah, that's that's your guy. Paul Kershaw. Really, yeah, we talked about him again. The pack is gonna come back to

him on the inning. So if you have the innings concerned, um, I don't think it's as valid this year because no one's gonna be pitching huge innings. So I think if he gets to his one seventy five area, that's gonna put him right in the mix. Um. And he's still super elite. He's never bad. He's literally never bad. By the way, throw huio Arius in there too. As far as I was going to all the Dodgers might as well get he was one when we did the spot. I still have my notes from from when you and

I did the spot on Awards. He was one five, Brandon Woodroff was forty, and Kershaw was twenty, and those were the three that I liked there. Um And so I'm sticking with those guys that if you can find him everywhere. But yeah, Kershaw, he's just so good. So you guys have all said good names there, but I I still like Kershaw. He's the longest shot of the ones that we've that we've mentioned. He besides Urius, but as far as they like the studs, he's the longest

shot at twenty on DraftKings, David Price to one, Dodgers everywhere. Jason, you might, yeah, if you can get the whole group, that'd be great. Yeah, Jason, who do you have? My My biggest bet for either that young market so far as just been Jacob to Grom. I got him at five to one. If you can get for five or seventy five, those are those are still pretty good numbers. I think it'll probably drop and you probably won't be a much better number on him in season unless he

gets hurt. Farther down, the guy that stood out as Jack Flaherty, Uh, he was kind of a guy I got in early. I had him at like, you know one, if you'd one something on nineteen. He didn't win. I wouldn't really touch from here at fifteen to one, but but I do have my eye on him. Then farther down. It that I bet Urias that worries me that I don't. I don't think he's gonna hit you know, a hundred eighty plus any and I think the gram is going to pitch two hundred or close to it with with

you know, normal Hell and Bower. I just can't beat it. Can't bet him at a low number after having him at a high number. But I do love the guy. Had I think if I was going to try to bet on Bower, I would bet on Bower drikeout. Okay, I'm with you on that on that home runs Uh, full disclosure. I bet Corey Seeger a hundred twenty five to one just because I love the number. I have your done at one. We'll get that anywhere any anymore. And Tatis at thirty to one, and I'm just gonna

ride with those three. But Matt, you had something to say generally speaking about this market and home runs in general. Yeah, you know. I mean, this is a fascinating one for me because if anybody claims they saw Pete Alonso coming as a major league home run leader a couple of years ago, then I tipped my cap to you, because you try to quantify this stuff and look for trends, and I don't know where do you even start your

sample sizing. So I just uh started with a wild Card era and had our guys here look at some stuff. Since nine wild Card era of the major league home run leaders have come from a warm weather or dome ballpark. Only of those major league home run leaders play in an age or younger season. So for those of us that wanted to pick alec Bom as the major league home run leader, um, think again again. Since the wild card era, there have been six Colorado Rockies for reasons

that are obvious, four Yankees for Orioles. Uh, in that span five Yankees pardon, I beg your pardon, four Orioles in that time span. Um, there have been four Mariners that have won one surprisingly, and then the Nelly Cruz resurgent years contributes into that. So the stuff that I like to look at here, I think ballpark factors are a big deal. Last year, Uh, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati had the highest percentage of hard hit fly balls at left the ballpark. Almost Truest Park was next on

the list. So that plays into the zip's projection of Ronald lacun your leading major League baseball and homer's If you look at from a ratio standpoint at bats per homer starting in two thousand eighteen through last year's COVID shortened schedule, it's Mike Trout, it's Pete Alonso based entirely on two thousand nineteen, and it's Nellie Cruz, I would I would also throw these caveats out there when people

are trying to find a home run leader. Teams that platoon like the Brewers tough to back anybody to lead a statistical category, even you know, Christian Yellows proved it was so with his magical a couple of years ago. There are five teams this year that are using a humid or to normalize the baseballs. We don't know who those teams are. I mean, believe me, I've been trying to find this, this very mysterious answer. Five teams. That's

this is a big deal. And because media is not allowed to get close to a ballpark yet, uh no, sneaky reporters have been able to give us the information and the league is not providing it. So it's gonna come out eventually when the season opens, and we'll find out which teams are using human doors. I'm going to begin my process of following the equipment managers in Major League Baseball that I know to try to get this answer. So there's so many things that factor into who's gonna

lead Major League Baseball. In Homer's pure power hit the ball out of the ballpark if I'm gonna grab a guy. The safest guy out there is Mike Trout because we just know what the body of work is like. And that's my really long answer to that question. Just do podcast prep for this bet? Was that what just happened? Right? I did some prep. I did some podcast And I'm also looking for guys that are interesting like Adam Duval. To me, he's interesting. He'd be the only player in

baseball to have two three homer games last year. He's a binge home run hitter. Think of what Mookie Betts did to the Orioles a few years ago. Think of what Glabor Torres did to the Orioles a couple of years ago. Find that guy with that weird matchup magic, and I think he gets a third other. No, nobody, nobody. I think this guy he has two thirty homer seasons under his belt. You know, he's not a superstar or anything, but I feel like Adam Duval just keeps, you know,

having quality, solid, above average seasons. He's a good defender to sneaky good defender and just doesn't get the love he deserves. I understand he flopped in eighteen after the two big seasons with since he but he rebounded in nineteen, he was good in twenty. I like Adam Duval two and he's he's a legit power dude, and he's gonna play every day because his defense. He can play all four corners, well third base, not really, but first and

then either corner. Altham he can fake it and center to if they need did him for a few games as well. So I like Adam duv I'm just happy to hear somebody give out in duvall a little love two two on uh, Paula Jason anything home run wise? Uh, I know you already have bets in pocket, Jason, Yeah, I got I got that forty to one. On Alvrez, I bet him thirty to one, and I've been buying his p s A ten autograph baseball cards and an expectation of him having a very very good season if

I was really going going down the list. George Springer, you know baths leadoff gets a lot of a bath, a lot of chances. Lad uh supposedly real, real fit and looks like crap last season, but but supposedly he's Uh, he's back and ready to go fifty to one. Probably even find a little higher there, um, but no, like a beat less guys kind of focused my attention on less players. So my money's on on Alvarez here. I'm I'm a big Alberath fan, original member of the fan club.

You are original because you did you get him at two hundred to one four Rookie of the Year, couple two d one Rookie of the Year. You know, I was all over that I was watching him in triple A because I was betting triple A every day and his numbers in triple A were just insane. And I kept telling you, I kept telling everybody, was like, anybody see this like six RB, I s at eight two home runs, Like this guy's gonna come up and hit

like you can clearly hit the ball. Um. You know, I'm excited to be in play and hopefully health is health days stays good. Did you haven't? And what at home runs thirty to one? You said? Okay, nice? All right? Where are you getting those? By the way, because yeah, the the William Hill numbers that I had when we did this are way off. The Draft King numbers are

way off from the william Hills. And you've got a shop these because I loved Harper, Matt Olson, Frandwell, Rays and Max Munse at thirty one fifty respect defly, and now they're twenty for Harper, eighteen from Olson, thirty three for Rays, and fifty for months at DraftKings. So if william Hill still has anything close to the numbers that they had, those are waves. That's a way better place to get it. I might have moved Seeger and Alvarez and Tuttos. That might have been me. I'd see months

now at MVP. Sorry, rock market all. I'm just surprised that that they're so disparate from what it was on DraftKings. But I still like those months, some of those shorter numbers monthly vandal right now. If you like that'll take that. I would take that. What about fran Miell Rays, what's he just last thing? And then we you can move on, Gil, I'm sorry, thirty five thirty five grand, We'll take that.

Like I said, it was fifty at william Hill. And when Gil and I talked a couple of weeks back, fran Miell Rays does have fifty homer capability though he really does. He's gonna d h every day. Uh, dudes, just got monster pop Ray is sixty two one at circle, Paul, and that months one hundred and seven D five to one. The shot just shot. I mean he's got he's got forty plus homer capability and and we don't know, you know what the Devon Denn ball maybe forty something does it.

You don't necessarily need to be in the fifties to get there. So I like my's. I know it's another Dodger, but it's it's a great price on Muncy want me to want me to turnt one is gonna be the winner of the ball dead if he can hit with with any ball though, I really, I really think Muns has that kind of power like a handful of other guys that like Alvarez and Stanton and Judge, etcetera. That's not gonna get hurt by by a deadn ball. He

doesn't hit cheap bees. Paul. Maybe I'll text you after this if you want some months he had, maybe we'll kind of deal, alright, last last thing then, guys, because obviously there's hits and there's wins and their strikeouts and maybe Jason, you have a thought on on any of that was real quick, But the last one I wanted to get to his Rookie of the year. Um, Jason and I share a what do we share and Andrew Vaughan or right, I don't. I don't even remember what

we share. But Andrew Vaughan, Kibrian Hayes have those tickets. I do not have a Jared Killin Nick, I know you do. Do you feel like you you brought this up the other day, Jason triple A being jettison for three or four weeks, like the whole manipulation of service time. Do you think this plays into the Rookie of the Year market this year? Yeah, it's gonna help a couple of guys who are kind of on the on the bubble. You know. Andrew Vaughan looks like he's gonna make the

White Socks. Helen Nick was probably gonna gonna make the Mariners. He heard his knee. They're saying three to six weeks, which is suspiciously close to the cut off. He might be back earlier. I don't know what's going on with him there, but I do think it will play into a couple of guys who might not have seen you know, and early uh, you know, early making the team out of spring training. They'll they'll make it now without triple I all right, and those are the three guys you

have or you have other people. Uh see, I have Helen Neck, I had him, I got twenty five and sixteens. Those those don't exist anymore. Basically in the a L, you're you're going against a Rosaraina to start. Um, I just don't think. I don't think it's a good price. And I think I think all the pictures were over priced to start, Like Copec was like eight to one or twelve to one, Pearson was five to one. I just thought those were just terrible prices for pictures. So

Va Vaughan was my guy. We we got him. I got him a hundred, I got him at fifty sixty. Just whatever numbers were out there were just just wrong. Um he's down to twenty and thirty now, I think I think he's he's a guy who's gonna probably play all season as a as a chance to put up the numbers. Um, yeah, those are my guys. I got to Brian Hayes, the only one in the d L so far. I think all the books just just made this big mistake with six oh Sanchez making him like

five to one. Or Westgate made him the favorite. It just doesn't make any sense to me, why why he would be such a low favorite. And then Harleston Carlson's the guy who haven't bet but you he should probably be lower than nine to one. Uh yea below you know, he's below two pictures. But Brian Hayes, Carlton, those guys are gonna start maybe five bath plus. So it's it's the Hitters award, I like to think, so I'm usually

invested in the hitters. Hey, Jason said Westgate should have paid him a thousand dollars to make their money, say, saving money in the long run. Yeah, yeah, Matt any uh any buzz on rookie that you uh, at least anecdotally or maybe you've seen him with your own eyes that you think is the guy or guys to be well, it's it's pretty amazing that rosarine Is still has rookie status, considering we all finally learned how to properly pronounce his

last name sometime around October fifteenth of last year. Uh. But it's the consensus top prospect in all the baseball and he might not even be there this year, so uh, future's future years market wander Franco would be a place to maybe stick a couple of bucks in a sock. I would agree with everything Jason said about Dylan Carlson. Um, he should be probably a lower shot than that. I think again we mentioned this earlier, but clearing the deck of Dexter Fowler, Um, it gives him more at bats?

How many more at bats? I'm not sure. I do agree with Jason also that this is an Offensive Players Award Carlson in the National League. And I I'm not going to claim to be intimately familiar with all the young pitching that Detroit tells us about. Oakland usually springs somebody on us who flashes, Um. You know, whether it's the hot three weeks of Seth Brown or like Vimeo Machine or one of those types. Not that either one of those guys as a candidate. In fact, I think

Brown has status anymore. Um. But you know, teams that give guys a chance, uh, And I think that the Cardinals are that chance. And it's I can't talk my way out of a rosary because I really don't think that October was a like a Carl Tuffey Rhodes opening Day type flash in the PAN. I just I think he's a pretty good player. Is he that guy for his whole career? Nobody is, But I think that he profiled as being a really good player with his minor league numbers, and I think he's going to be a

pretty safe bet for that this year. What a postseason he had too. We all remember a Rosarina from that that will be etched in our memory as he is. Uh yeah, strangely um to the casual fans still eligible for Rookie of the Year, Guys, I can't thank you enough. We could do this, we could do like, you know, fifteen more markets, but we'll leave it at that. Matt, when do they What is your understanding of when you get to go back in ballparks? How does that work

this year? I'm very pessimistic that will be back. I think that fans will be back. I think that at some point writers and and broadcasters will be back. But I'm really pessim us stick over the access will have to uniform personnel. I think the players Union is going to do what they can to keep us away for as long as possible, in part because the teleconferencing stuff seemed to work last year. Uh And if I have to spend my mornings tracking down hitting coaches on the phone.

So be it. I'm happy that we're we're we're able to do it in any way, shape or form. So we'll be in the studio until further notice. And and rule that you want to keep the most rule that you want to get rid of that we tried last year. I love the extra endings rule. I loved it, having watched it to its completion in every phase of the World Baseball Classic, as I know Jason did. I thought it was great at the time. I think it's great now, even in a non COVID shortened season. It has a

place in baseball. I like the fact that roster's got shortened up in September um. I thought the three battern cinimum would do more to expedite conclusions, and then it in fact, so if somebody wanted to tell me that that was going away, I'd be fine with that. I just hope to keep the extra innings rule around forever. I agreed, didn't seem like it really changed a whole bunch. Yeah,

it's because they the game had already changed. There was another one of those things that they did that's kind of eye washed because there really weren't that many one and two batter appearances anyway, and so they kind of fixed something that wasn't really broken there with with that rule. That's why I didn't have the impact that like the Randy Choates of the world, they've already been kind of uh pushed out of the game, and so that was what it was supposed to fix and it and it

really didn't. They still need I think a pitch clock is is what where we really need to get to get that pace going. I like the ghost Runners a lot better than I thought I would. I thought I would absolutely hate it, and I thought it was fine as a night owl. Don't get me wrong. I love a twenty inning game sitting up being on Twitch streaming me and my me and my chat we're watching it.

I love that. But I understand that that has repercussions for like the next ten days on a ball club and that's not cool, and it can create an trees and everything like that. So I'm fine with that. They should have kept the d H though nobody wants to see pictures bat and the strategy piece is overstated. It's not that hard to do a double switch. I do it and I'll be the show every single day. Here

here was my trajectory on the whole ghostman. On second thing, I was like, oh my god, I can't believe they're doing this. This is awful. And I was like, this is the greatest thing ever. Then I went into why doesn't anybody bunt? Then I went into right, I better not complain about this because no one cares. You know. It's the whole thing that was. That was basically the the arc of that. Guys that can't thank you enough From under a cloud of smoke in Southern California at

spread Apedia, UH Baseball savant Jason Weingarten, thank you. Jason has always appreciated man. Or. I think we're on the radio tomorrow. Maybe we'll text. We'll figure that out. Paul Spore from fan Graphs at Spore s p O. R. E Er, who has been doing my podcast since the nineteen hundreds. I mean in a minute Whenever podcast where first an advent and Matt vas version from ESPN and the MLB Network. Matt, we will all be listening to you, whether you're in a ballpark or not, for all your broadcasts.

UM can't thank you enough, man, I really appreciate it man. It's it's so uh touching to connect with you man. Thank you, good time, guys, thanks gentlemen, with you. Thank you so much. Good luck to everybody baseball one from all of us on the Beating of the Book, podcast and