Beating the Book: 2020 Presidential Election Betting Angles

of NFL. We'll get his picks, will get his thoughts on week seven and obviously week eight moving forward, and then Joe Shan will join us talk World Series Game six tonight. And I'll do what I did with both Sport and Winegarden yesterday. I just sort of throw out my Davy Roberts theories and see if Joe wants to bat them down as well. Everybody disagrees and they're like yeah, but Davy Roberts loses job, So I don't know if they disagree or they agree. So we look forward to that.

Football and baseball come in the second hour, but we start today. As you know, on this show, we have not been shy about talking about political betting. A politically speaking, of course, Jason Jason conn is here as well. Everybody, how you doing, Jason? Could good morning? Go yeah we get a political yeah yeah, well I want to get a political but political betting. This is like super geeked

out stuff. Uh. And these two guests who are kind enough to join us this morning, they did a phenomenal podcast video pod on the subject last week, and I wanted to have them both on. Uh. She is from odd Sharks. She's a writer for add Sharks. Comes comes to us primarily from my poker writing background. I believe she'll correct me if I'm wrong. Pamela Malda Nado on the show this morning, and uh, he is a gaming attorney. But also and he may object to this term, so

I'll have to get a definition on this. I believe operative might be too strong of a word. He may object to that. But registered Republican, formerly working in politics and the Republican Party. It's Mac for standing. So welcome, Pamela, Welcome Mac, and congratulations to the both of you. And I thought was just a great pot cast last week. Thank you so much. There they are, look at them very much. Oh no, no, it was great. It was

It was thorough. It was wonderful and I hope to do justice here this this morning, because I think this is the content that everybody wants. We are one week away, obviously from the presidential election, and I guess I was trying to figure out where should I start, And let's just start with the latest, which is yesterday. When we were on the air, it looked like Joe Biden had his day cleared, he wasn't gonna go anywhere, UM, had

his calendar cleared. And then he showed up in Pennsylvania randomly, maybe not so randomly, but at least schedule wise, it was randomly. And then the schedule came out and he's going to Georgia and Florida. I want to start with Georgia and Texas specifically because I found that interesting. UM, because Georgia and Texas at least in the betting markets, and I can give you the numbers specifically, Republicans to win the electoral vote electoral vote in Georgia minus one

seventy six to do so in Texas. Uh, it is just about the same number. I think a little higher. I'll check on the exact number right now. Mac. Let's start with you on these um Texas, by the way, minus three sixty for the Republicans, pardon me, much higher are Georgia. In Texas and specifically Georgia, where Biden is visiting today in play, George is not genuinely in play on the presidential front, but George is important for two reasons. One,

there's a Senate race that is weirdly in play. The incumbent Senator per Due is looking oddly vulnerable against a guy named John osof whose claimed to fame and I could not make this up, is he lost the most expensive house race in American history. But somehow he's running

strong in Georgia on the Senate front. And if Biden's going to win in his game to the point in the race where he's taking for granted the idea that he might win and he wants to send it to back him, that puts a lot of pressure down to

get there too. It makes the Republicans in the last week spend money in the Atlanta media mark which is expensive and going to the Texas point in a bunch of media Marke considers super expensive, and that takes their precious resources away from Michigan, Pennsylvania and parts of Florida, So it's not a it's not a Hillary mistake. I don't. I know. He did say he's going to go visit Wisconsin, so maybe it's it's it's not a kin to that, but it's not for those are saying like, hey, this

is exactly what Hillary did. She was in the wrong states of the in the last week. You don't view it that way. I don't view it that way because I don't think there's any obvious blind spot states that he's missing. Look, I'm a proud man who used to live in Wisconsin, went to school in Wisconsin. And the fact that Hillary couldn't see that iowaism play, in ohioism play, but somehow didn't realize Wisconsin isn't play is malpractice of highest magnitude. But I didn't seems to be doing a

better job covering the obvious states. So I do think it is a little arrogant to go down to Georgia, to go down to Texas and to try to put those in place, so to speak, when he us have real concerns in other states. But he's playing like a man who's well ahead in the fourth quarter and something of a preventive hunt. Interesting by the way, Trump of course winning Georgia and polls right now split. But the the betting market, as we mentioned, Republicans at minus one seventy

six to win the electoral will vote skill Alexander. It is a numbers game right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network series x M channel two O four talking with both mac Verstanding and Pamela Maldonado from odd Shark about the election one week from today. Let me shift to Texas for a second, Pamela, And by the way, pam or Pamela, what do you prefer either way? We're exciting to me. Okay, well, uh, Texas. You live in Texas, you are familiar with the demographics there. Uh done deal.

Republicans huge favorites minus three sixty in terms of the betting market on the electoral vote in Texas. But you think that might be a little high. As far as I could gather, I will would not believe that they're spending advertising dollar Kamala Harris is making a trip to Texas if they didn't believe that there is a legitimate shot at at least making this a much tighter race

than the odds and polls indicate. Now, the reason for that is because we have a large number of transient people that have come from California, New York, Arizona, people from all across the country have in fact moved over to Austin, moved over to Harris County, that's Houston, Dallas, moved over to some of these big metropolitans cities within the state. And that has shifted our demographics. We are no longer as strongly read as we used to be.

And now you said my Republican was minus three sixty. I've been tracking these odds since about March April UM when everyone else was focusing on Korean baseball. I got into politics. The number for a Republican was minus six hundred. That number is now anywhere between minus three hundred. I see it on bet online minus three. You see it a minus three sixty. Democrat went from plus one thousand,

it is now plus two forty. Now it's interesting about Texas is we have nearly seven point four million early votes as a Sunday. Why is that number so important because that is of the state's total in two thousand and sixteen and we still have a week away. It really is a present. But how about that Douson team in Korea. That's what I really wanted to bring on it.

Very very curious about that. Um so then, but just from a betting perspective, then, while all of that so, both in Georgia and Texas, while we're trending in one way, and listen, we're all about value. We always say it, no matter the bed, value is value, whether it's a favorite or an underdog. Mac do I do? Do you still? Do you recommend a bet on the Democrats in either of those states? Are we are we jumping ahead of ourselves? I would take the bet on the Democrats in Texas.

I think Texas at least for this election cycle is lucy and the football to the Democrats there gonna get close, They're going to make some progress, but the last man's gonna get pulled away. Georgia with the right odds, and it seems that we're getting there may actually have good value if you're looking to make a wager if Joe Biden wins big, if this is a historic election, somewhere in the nature of Ronnie Reagan and eight four about out the forty nine states sweep, Georgia is one of

those surprising states. That's gonna flip his way. I don't think it's gonna happen. I don't think it's more probable than not. But if you're getting the right odds and it looks like the markets are just about there, it may be a good value bet Okay, let's talk about the rust belt states because as I'm as I understand and I think how the conventional wisdom is going right now, and most people seem to get it, is if Biden can win, uh, the trifecta, if you will, of Michigan, Wisconsin,

and Pennsylvania, this thing is over. Katie bar the doors. They say back down south that this is done ze. Let's start with these one by one. You guys did a great job on your pot about this. Let's start with Michigan. Um, how do you see that one? As we look at the real clear politics board here up at Visa dot com and the Visa app, that's the one of the three Michigan that looks like it is definitely not definitely, but at least it has a light

shade of blue Michigan right now. The electoral vote, the electoral vote rather in terms of the betting market, Democrats minus to sixty Republicans plus two oh nine mac Michigan. Michigan probably does Democratic. I certainly don't like the action of minus to six D. I don't think it is that safe from the Democratic cold. But I don't think there's enough value of plus two or nine either. It's a race. I wind to be wagering at those odds

one way or another. If Trump's going to hold on to Michigan, it's going to be a hidden vote that comes out from Again, it's also going to be reverse coachail and was a Senate race with a really lovable guy named John James's an Iraqi War veteran running on the Republican ticket, If he can draw out enough of the true additional GOP base that's been otherwise repulsed by Trump, and let's just say there's really bad weather in Detroit that day or something that sort of tamps down the vote,

it's possible. But I see Michigan going back in the Democratic column, and I would say relatively safely. So light blue does seem like the right shape. Pennsylvania, where the Democrats are minus two hundred, another state that Trump won in has come down from minus to fifty. Biden not

quite the polling advantage that he has in Michigan. Do you think Pennsylvania is in play and and is it really, I mean, is it one of these that if Trump can win, I mean, that's his only path, right mac, Yes, his only path is to pick up two of the three rest spelt states. Trump is an incumbent who's not going to add a single state he lost last time with the possible looks of human the vata, and that's sort of exasperatmant to itself if you're looking at the

big odds, the idea. They have an incumbent who is not likely to be territory. Pennsylvania's Joe Biden's home state, US the senator from Delaware. But he is at least supposedly a proud son of screen to Pennsylvania, and he's been pointing that out a lot on the campaign trail. The problem for him is Philadelphia has been not showing these sort of robust enthusiasm you would want from a Democratic perspective. Trump has been smart. He's been campaigning hard

in Pennsylvania, not just recently. I mean, remember Donald Trump started campaigning for re election roughly ten seconds after the oath of office. So I'm looking to see what we've got at the moment, Democrats Republicans plus one fifty three, I think there's value on the Republican mind there. I wouldn't take it even money, but at plus one fifty three, I think Donald Trump could pull this out of his back pocket. Again. It's a state that's not getting any

more liberal. It's it's a it's a market that has really come down to like every day, Yeah, go ahead, go ahead. Did I go ahead and interject here? I think another thing that you have to get cosider is that it's not just a Biden that's making his rounds over in Pennsylvania, it's also Obama. And who's gonna who has a lot more name recognition at this point, It's

going to be Obama. But something that did help that is a big blow for Republicans that would have me leaning more towards Democrat, is that the Supreme Court ruled just yesterday that mail in ballots can't be rejected over mismatched signatures. So what that means it's different looking signatures from your ballot than your registration form are no longer disqualifying.

That's a big blow for the Republicans. Did you find since you got into this, Pam earlier this year, have you found that the that the betting interest in this has grown far wider than you could have imagined. I listen every single day. I go about an hour walk every single morning, and it's why I need to listen to podcasts. I am listening to every single political podcast that I can. I have absorbed this like it has

become my limb. I'm astonished with myself, to be frank, and it's just it's it's just so it's thrilling to see the developments from where we were in March to where we are now, and it's a week away. You're seeing the progression from either side, Republicans Democrats, You're getting viewpoints from Republicans Democrats, and it's just it's it's fascinating to me, it is and it's it's what. What's what

me and my friends have talked about the most. Obviously we talked about football and baseball and standard as well, but this has been the running sort of sidebar the whole way through. I want to get your thoughts Pam on on Florida momentarily, but let's finish the Rust belt because I know Mac that you were in Wisconsin for

a good period of time. This to me, of all the things you guys talked about, well, there was a couple of states, Wisconsin and Nevada were particularly interesting, but Wisconsin, which is part of that Rust Belt trio. Uh Democrats minus two right now Republicans plus two thirty five. These are consensus numbers in betting markets globally. Trump wanted in polling has been really really interesting because you see some polls where Biden is double digits ahead in Wisconsin. You've

lived there, You've worked in politics there. You see this completely differently from a poll like that I do. I think it is much closer, and I think it was value on the Republican side. Trump was the first Republican to pull Wisconsin out in some time. But the fact that it's got in the stake close is not coincidence. With auto layoffs. The number of unionized employees over the

past several years has dropped dramatically. That means the number of both Democratic voters period has dropped, and the number of Democratic voters who are going to be told by his or her respective union boss to help and vote has dropped. There's another issue with Wisconsin. This is not a good thing, but from a betting point of view,

we've got to take everything into account. Milwaukee is a city that contains almost the entire Democratic base of the Wisconsin vote outside of Madison, and Milwaukee is a place where voter suppression occurs on just an enormous and deeply unfortunate scale. By no means my condone in this this is a terrible thing, but it's baked into the cake. The reality is there is year and a year out in effort to suppress the African American vote in Milwaukee.

The African American vote in Milwaukee is a heavily Democratic vote. The polling obviously isn't suppressed. No one's being turned away from answering the phone over dinner. So there tends to be a divide between what the polls show in advance and what actually happens on election day. Added the fact the places like Jamesville don't have the auto workers that they once did. Add in the fact the parts of the state have actually done pretty well under Trump, and

I think it's a very close state. I think there's a lot of value in the Republican wager at the moment, I don't know that it makes sense. And an even money point, I think Joe Biden is going to win the state, but it's much much closer. And add on to that you have I was just talking about Pennsylvania and how the Supreme Court was a big blow for the Republicans. Well, it's the reverse. It's the Supreme Court

ruled in something that's in favor of the Publicans. The Supreme Court will not and this was also something that just happened over the weekend. They will not extend the deadline for absentee ballots, meaning absentee ballots will be counted only if they are in the hands I mean musical clerks by the time the polls closed on November three. So that's a big win for Republicans. Speaking of speaking of the allegations of voter suppression, or maybe not just allegations,

maybe maybe the reality of voter suppression. We talked about Milwaukee here moments ago. Uh. Florida pam uh again, another state that went to Trump in it was read in this market very tight Republicans minus one forty four Democrats plus one twenty. There is a path where Florida or there is a scenario, I should say where Florida doesn't matter in the end. If Biden wins those rust belt states, maybe even Trump winning Florida will not shift this election

to Donald J. Trump. But Latino's obviously an interesting demographic in the state of Florida and very hard to sort of wrangle. Explain that to us if you would. I think I'm going to let Mac do this one, because I kind of do believe that. I think, yes, it's a toss up, but I am agreement with him that it is probably going to go towards Trump and Republican minus too minus the odds are the voter turnout is

not doing as superb as other states. The voter turnout is kind of whether it is depression, but it's only the votes have cast their ballots. They are expecting turnout. But I myself, I'm I'm not. I don't feel strong, and I would believe that Mac perhaps would be a better one to answer on this one when it comes to the state back so far, that is where I went to law school. I don't know that gives a much way of bona fides, but I've lived in Miami

and I've voted in Miami. One of the really inexplicable things is the ratio of Republican voters to Democratic voters in Florida has actually gone up over the past four years during Trump's first start, meaning there are more registered Republicans today as a percentage than there were four days ago. That doesn't jibe with any national arment, doesn't jibe with

anything you expect against a relatively unpopular incumbent president. There's also a lot of things in Florida that would ordinarily suggest Biden should be comfortable to heavily minority state, but and Hamela is much more qualified on this part than me. Uh. The Latino and Latino vote is not a singular block.

It's an enormously complicated voting block. But it's a huge part of Miami Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, which are the three counties in southern Florida that account for almost all of the state's Democratic votes, and where they meaningfully differ from the Latino and Latino votes in places like Texas and Arizona is there's a heavily Cuban influence.

Younger generations of Cubans are supposed to be getting more and more liberal because they did not personally flee the terrors of Fidel Castro, but somehow that has a planned out. The Cuban vote has been reliably Republican over the years, mostly just because of the de facto reaction to anything that even vaguely sounds like communism or liberalism, which again put in the side of Merrite from the other day, and that's held Florida as a relatively conservative state. So

I think it is growing to hold for Trump. It is now officially his residence. He somehow shut up and voted in person the other day, got a good photo op. But yeah, there's some guys on the public and ticket there. Okay. So Florida is just Sorda. Is just really hard because you're having to guess who is going to turn out for the vote. You have the older white demographic who is very upset at them is handling of coronavirus. And like Max said, you have the Latino population, which we've

had this discussion. It is very hard to break down the Latino Hispanic population because we have thirty subsidies within our culture. So somebody who is like he said, you have the Cubans, and then you have the Mexicans who are vote well part of Mexico. Are you've from the southern Mexico, from the west coast Mexico, Like, it's just so many So you're trying to have why Florida is a toss up is because you're trying to guess which

demographic is going to turn out. Okay, So then to both of you here, because we have a pesky commercial here in a minute, of the states we've talked about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the rust belt states, uh, Florida, and then let's throw in Georgia and Texas, which is where we started. What's the best bet state by state among them as you see it value wise, either of you could take

that best value is Wisconsin. Safest bet is Florida. Gop on both of them, gop on both of you agree with that, Pam, I was Wisconsin is going to be my first response as well, so the value on the GOP in the state of Wisconsin, which is again one of those three that Biden is trying to get to clinch it and make it an early night a week from today, election night, November three, one week from today.

All right, we'll come back. It's mac verstanding it's Panela Maldonado from Odds Shark talking a election here all hour long. We'll talk to Dreu Densic on the NFL and Joe Sheen on MLB. In the second hour. I want to get into the state of Nevada, which most people sort of think is a done deal. Mac doesn't see it that way. We want to get into the interesting demographics of the state of Nevada, which is a very twenty twenty discussion that and of course the broader discussion. Finally,

the big market. Who will win this ultimately UH in the presidential race, Biden or Trump, and how you should bet that? Coming back on a numbers game at Visa these Sports Betting Network one week from today with Mac Verstanding and Pamela mal Donado. The Twitter machine loves these two.

I knew they would. Um, we'll get intoll those tweets here momentarily, but we have a we have a short little segment here, and I want to talk Nevada because one of the things that you two talked about on your video pod shut I called a video pod a video I don't know what it was, but it was beautiful the way you guys did it. But Nevada was fascinating because here we are. Mac. I know you're are located in Nevada, Pam, You're in Texas. UM. Nevada is

a very unique situation, isn't it. Mac Nevada is the ultimate and but for the storylines of it would not and should not be implayed. So that is a state that was getting more and more reliably democratic and showing no signs of turning back about four to seven points in the blue margin. Hillary Clinton wanted. Donald Trump didn't really compete there. He tried to adend happen and that should have held. But here's the thing about Nevada. Nevada is Las Vegas and the rest of the state, and

the rest of the state has been very conservative. Las Vegas is full of casino employees, that is our local industry, and casino employees are unionized and thus tend to the Democratic. But because of COVID nineteen, a large swap of the casino employees are gone. Not all the casinos are fully up and reopened at all, and the ones that are

not really running a full capacity at the moment. So there's these huge quantities of unionized employees who were told earlier this year that they've been laid off, they've been let go, and a large number of them have packed up and they've gone to California, they've gone to Florida, they've gone to any number of other states. But they're not hanging back in Nevada where the short term future prospects of employment are not great. That means there's a

large part of this reliable Democratic vote that's gone. Now Here's what makes us even screw here. When we take polls in politics, when we sample what's going on in front of election day, we assume a Republican Democratic and voters split, but either in accord with what's on the books or that roughly resembles what turned out four years ago. So the polling is not going to show this massive

drop in Democratic voters in southern Nevada. Interesting, but I think the campaigns note they've been showing up in great frequency lately. Donald Trump has been running all over southern the data and I don't think you'd see that investment of resources unless someone in the campaign had the same until we do. That's that's totally it, right, That's totally the reason why it keeps coming back here. It's got to be drum a betting perspective, you always talk about

fishy lines, and maybe the line certainly correly. I think what's interesting about him and why I would also lean towards the Republican side of getting value is because if you look at five thirty eight, I look at this ideally. By the way, if you look at five thirty eight, they have Biden clearly favored to win Nevada nine two in one hundred, Yet the betting nods have continuously dropped Republican.

And so if it was clearly favored, in my opinion, that democratic juice would be a little bit higher than what it is at minus anywhere between minus two fifty minus two eighty than what you're getting. Yeah, in fact, pan to your point, I mean this yesterday I saw Democrats minus three four already here we look this more when we flash up on the screen is minus three

you're quoting it to tick below that. Even so it is you know, every day, obviously the general election market changes every day back and forth, but even these states now are starting to move at a very rapid pace, in Nevada being perhaps chief among them. You agree with that Mac that that that's a that's a value bet, and maybe more than a value bet. Maybe, you know, because it's one thing to talk value, it's another thing too, Okay, value schmalue. Is this gonna win or not? As people?

You know, people want to know, is it gonna catch it? Would you bet this Republican? I would bet a Republican. We've talked about a lot of value opportunities in the Rust Belt, and those are things where at the right number, I think the odds are there, but I suspect they're going to go to Joe Biden. I think Donald Trump

is gonna win the state of Nevada. It is going to be the ultimate aberration and will be fascinating to see four years from now whether or not the parties realized this is what happened, because this is a singular, non reoccurring event that just falls right in his favor. I only have twenty seconds here before the next break. But is it consequentially even if it does go to the Republicans for the national election? No, No, that is a diminimous number of electoral votes, and I do not

see the selection being that squeaky of the margin. All Right, we'll come back, mac verstanding Pamela mal Donado talking election one week away and we'll talk football and baseball. Promise you that it's a numbers game at Visa and the sports betting Network geeking out. Uh we get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate all the feedback and as you can imagine, on a show like this, it's all over the place. Let's see this is from Let's see this is from Nick is talking about Pam. Listening to

your appearances directed at Pam. Sound awesome. Gil should have you on the show morow he should guilt, should guilt? Should beam? Martin bands Hey, Gil, mom Nada one of my favorite newly discovered cappers plus gives the show a lot better look than wishing of the disheveled intellectual. Great call on putting her on the show. He got thrown out under the bush. Let's see here? Uh okay. James McIvor a politically speaking, that was one of my favorite

interviews ever. Still happening, James um analytics. Where do people bet these presidential props? Globally? Bradley Poris Biden is not winning Texas minus three sixties, Free money, l O L. Mike Jang and the words of public idemy. Don't believe the hype on Biden Harrison Texas. We're talking about value and uh, let's say Phil wis excellent pair of election experts, really good info, and then he goes on to throw one of our other guests under the bus. It's it's

just not cool either. Come on, people, come on, Uh skill Alexander, it's mac ver stand again as Pamela Maldonado from odsh are kind enough to join us talk election this morning before we get into the broader presidential market. And what I'm really curious about is if you would, uh hate, if you would venture a wager on by how much either the GOP or the Democrats are gonna win in the electoral college. We'll get into that next segment, but let's go through a few of these senate races

of consequence. Uh, if you will, guys, and let's start in Arizona. I guess Arizona. We can talk both electoral college and the Senate race. Martha mcsal lee the Republican, Mark Kelly the Democrat, Mark Kelly a huge minus three three favorite. Properly priced throw it out to either of you, So yes, properly price Martha mc sally is an incompan who has never been elected. There's a lot of unpopularity there. It's a state that's leaning towards going towards Biden to

begin with. Plus, Mark Kelly is a lovable former astronaut. He's married to Gabby Gifford's who's the former congressman congresswoman who had the tragic shooting. He is a figure who Arizona is easily rallied around. This is an almost impossible Senate race on the GOP side. Uh. From a legal point of view, Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court really a short time ago. I think it's as we've been on air this morning, and one of the questions is why did

the GPE rusher through prior to election day? Why not tease it out there as reelect us and we'll get it done, or at least we'll get done in the lane up session. And I think Arizona is actually a big reason. Because this is a special election. Whoever wins this race is gonna be sworn in very quickly. They don't wait till January. And there is zero confidence in the Republican party that Martha McSally can hold onto this seat.

What about the state itself? The state itself from an electoral college perspective, red or blue, because this is a real tight market with the Democrats only a slight favorite. Well, Trump won here four years ago. If he's going to lose outside of the rust belt, this would seem to be part of what walks away from him. But there's been this odd issue with again the Latino Latino vote,

which we talked about. It's not a singular vote. It's a hard vote to understand, but it doesn't seem to be as copacetic to him as it was to Barack Obama or even to Hillary Clinton. That is a massive part of the vote in Arizona. Arizona is really just a couple of metropolitan areas, the rest of its rural. So Trump seems to have a chance of holding on here is a reason the markets going back and forth. But if you're getting anything close to even money on Biden,

I would take it. If you're you know, anywhere close that march and I would take it. What is it at then maybe that's small, But take the Democratic side, Pam your thoughts, I would agree with him. It's mean to quote our interview that he had. He said, no one believes Nick Sally is going to win, and there are going to be situations like this where you have them, uh, the incumbent Republican going to get pushed out, but it is going to be a split diic a vote where

it goes towards the Democratic side. And I agree the voter turnout in Arizona. I mean, it's record breaking numbers across the country and Arizona is no exception to that. Trying to get to as many states as possible here within the air. If your state is not mentioned, please don't don't be offended. We're trying to get to some of the more swingy ones Iowa. Let's start with the Senate race. Jody Earns the Republican, slight favorite minus one six,

Theresa Greenfield the Democrat plus one oh six. You were mentioning on the on the pods you did with Pam over there at odd Shark, which was wonderfully done. Once again, I urged people to go listen to it and watch it. That Earnest at one point was sort of a darling in the Republican Party actually delivering a state of the Union response not really the case anymore, huh. You know

Johnny Earnest, So I'm quick and hard. Johnny Earnest, when she first ran, had this advertisement she put on TV where she talked about growing up castrating hogs, and it became this metaphor for getting you know what out of Washington, d C. That hit the Iowa populist perfectly. I was a really politically savvy state because of the Iowa CAUCUSUS.

They take absurd pride in being the presidential wine tasters of the United States and the people who shall sample our presidential candidates first every four years, so they pay a lot of attention. And the problem was promising to go to d C and clean up the swamp is a singular senator from Iowa. We can't do it, and I don't think even Mr Smith could do it these days. So John Earns is taken a hit because of that. But I think she's minus one or so. It should

hold Republican. I live gotten margin land more Republican over the years. I haven't seen a huge Democratic investment in the state. I don't think Joe Biden has much of a chance of winning the state upily enough, so johny Arns should pull it out. But this is not the upstart, enthusiastic promising candidates she was just a few years ago. So Jody Earn should pull it out. Am, I to understand, you also said Republicans to win the electoral college. Their

minus one eighty three on the Republicans. What I'm seeing right now, Yeah, I don't love the line, but anything under minus two hundred, I think there's value on the Republicans to hold the electoral college in Iowa, which again

not terrifically consequential to hold for Trump. And it's not that any electoral another red state, as you said, Pam, Iowa anything well from a voting from a voter turnout perspective, you're looking at Iowa, which has hit six eight thousand ballots, received that number in two thousand and sixteen forty two. It is you take it for what you will. We there's no it's too early have right now obviously to know are those Republicans or those Democrats. But those are

the numbers that are being thrown out. So that's something to consider. Yeah, because that's obviously the obvious follow up is do we know what that means? Right? I think a lot of people will assume, oh, that must be Democratic voters primarily, but we don't necessarily know that from a static state perspective. Last commercial, I promise, uh, and we will get to the general market here on the h the presidential race itself, Biden right around two dollar favorite.

Will update it here momentarily, and the notion of just how much might either Republicans or Democrats win this Trump or Biden? Coming back in numbers game at Visa the sports betting network. Uh, it is Gil Alexander. It is a numbers game right here at Visa. We get tweets. Uh. And as always you gotta love you gotta love the numbers games listeners. This one Gil. That guy is really Jeff Coleandro and disguise right, he sounds just like gets you.

We dressed of Jeff Coleandro and called him mc versanting. That's not true. That's that's what's happening, not at all. Great analysis from Drawn Cup, great analysis of Cuban and Latinos in Florida have many friends and now relatives in the community that fled Cuba. Uh, their kids hold the same values. One thing you did not mention is they also lean conservative because they feel liberals persecute Christians over other religions. Thank you Drawing Cup for that. Uh, John

j just awesome two of my three favorite follows. Just missing Paul Stone. Um, let's see here on and on and beating the book always always, Uh appreciate the tweets. Mark B. Clinically figuring systematic voter suppression into betting value analysis is the most depressing thing I've ever heard on your show. Appropriate but depressing. Um, let's see and there's always you know, there's always different viewpoints. De shock wave like that, he says, love the show, but listen to

you do not have to hear about politics. Keep up the good work. But let's not spend all day on of madness. Okay, we'll talk football top of the air. You'll be happy to show uh deshak de hawk when de shock Wave. Sorry about that, um, Gil MITCHI here miss most of the conversation, but I love the political betting market talk. Looking forward to summary of the best bets in the visa email. You can we throw those in the visa and email? Are we allowed to do that? Jason?

Jason looking at me terrified. I will find out Jason's like oh no, this is the worst moment of my life. Do I have to include all these in the email? Hank deal, great interview, thank you, it's all. It's all pam and uh and Mac Barton bands one more time Presidential wine Tasters. Oh my god, what a great line word smithing at its fines, on and on and all. We could read these all day. We appreciate all the

response to Pamela and Mac. I lied, guys one last state because I feel like I gave short shrift here to Ohio, where the electrical the electoral vote rather is Republicans minus two fifty five at Democrats plus two oh six. Any thoughts there? No Republican has won the president too without winning the state of Ohio, as best I can tell. I think since like the invention of the cotton gin

or something among those lines. Uh, if it's going to flip, this is the election, right, There is this scenario where Biden just runs the board huge in which gets Ohio will be a domino that falls with the rust belt. Uh. Looking at the line, you know, if you're getting plus two something close to plus three something, there might be some thing value there in the Democratic bet. But I would say that it's small. Tun get too excited. Eli Whitney reference cases at plus Jason marked that down as well.

Pam anything there, Uh No, I actually had Ohio was one of the early videos that I had done in I believe it was like June July before people were pegging this as a potential flip. So I just want to toot my own horn that hey, I did. I was out there first, Orange too did. Well. Let me let me start with you, Pamela on the general then all right, Joe Biden, Donald Trump right now? And you know better than anybody this changes daily, if not hourly. At this point, this has been all over the place.

I got Biden at plus money earlier this year. That is obviously long gone. Uh it's at minus two oh two, is what I'm seeing right at the moment. Trump coming back at plus one seventy value on Trump, we usually gravitate towards the dog when talking value, or conversely, is there value instead on Joe Biden? Is that too low? In my opinion, I'm going to stick with without giving my politics, this is purely from what I see in numbers.

I'm very much a numbers person, and what I can go off of is that there have been sixty two million votes that is already record breaking, on track for historic levels, that is fifteen million more at this time. In my opinion, people are not showing out if it was for the incumbent, it's potentially wanting change. And the reason one of the largest, the biggest issue is the handling of the pandemic. Now, no one is blaming Trump for the pandemic. Of course, his handling of it, I

think is believe. He once said in February, this is going to be gone by April. It's gonna be gone by easter. Here we are in November. I heard a fascinating podcast that really opened up my eyes to seeing Biden as Valium. And it was a woman's coalition who was talking about how they've gone and this this is a group of women who either voted Republican and are now voting for Biden, or they voted for I'm sorry they voted for Trump and are now voting for Biden.

But one of the things that they're saying was after Trump himself got coronavirus, they had their seven year old children tell them, mommy, why is the president not wearing a mask? I have to wear a mask every day at school. Why doesn't the president have to wear one? So it's just like that was eye opening to me because there's just a large demographic that we're not necessarily thinking of in terms of of money and value. It

is it, it really is. I believe the key issue is the coronavirus, this pandemic, and I think if it wasn't in any other election year, I think Trump can definitely reading his spot. But because of the pandemic, in the situation that the country is still in, the cases are just increasing state by state across the country. We're going back to June July numbers. I really think that's just been the thorn in his behind that he wasn't

wanting to. Uh, you can't predict. So I really do think that that minus two should actually be closer to minus two. Fifty mm hmm mac same smartest four words I'll say today. Pamela Muldonado is correct. Uh, there is an enthusiasm. Gamp I drove across America in the middle of the pandemic, actually drew from Vegas up to Main

two to take airson business. There's a big spread in the yard signs, there's a big spread in flags, and that I think gives some false optimism on the Trump front, because the people who backed Trump love Donald Trump, but the numbers just aren't there. Trump is this guy holding an eight or nine card parlay or an eight or nine card round robin, who needs to pull out almost

everyone with possibly one exception. And when we talk about them in a vacuum, we say, Okay, there's a path in Wisconsin, there's a path in Pennsylvania, there's a path in Arizona. But for those all to fall rapidly, it's just statistically improbable to a spectacular degree. Minus two or two is a steel. Pam said she sees value that up to minus two fifty. I see value it up to minus three fifty. I think the odds of Joseph Robinant Biden being sworn in our January are much better

than four to one. And to the people then who would say, whoa wait a minute, everybody, Hillary was up in the polls four years ago, and look what happened. And even though it's a you know, let's let's be honest. The polls are are a little more in favor of Biden seven days out than they were in favor of Hillary.

Let's make that clear as well. But to the people who say, hey, polls, schmolls, as my mother used to say, what would you say to them in regard to the polls, Here's what I would One thing that I would say is that there's one key difference in regards to the polls from now is that one, Hillary never once reach the threshold during the entire election period. Biden has not only hit that, he has maintained that for months number two. Hillary, right around this time, all of the sentiment was actually

shifting against her. Biden he has kept he is favorable in his personality, he is favorable in the economy, he is favorable in whatever poll imaginable. He has held his favorability something he not once hasn't shown a decline. So that would be two stark differences in my opinion, threshold maintained throughout the entire election process. Interesting, Mac, I think that's accurate. Um. Donald Trump ran four years ago campaigning

on what he can do for the United States. This has largely been a campaign about the wrongs that have been done to him and why he deserves to be reelected for his own personal purposes. I don't think that's a convincing message. He also won four years ago because people lied to bolsters, which is not uncommon. Right, people will say one thing on the phone because it sounds

like the correct thing. They will then go standing and voting booth and notwithstanding a terrible access Hollywood tape, vote for Donald Trump. It's a little harder to do that when you're voting at the kitchen counter, with your spousing, your children hanging around. I think that's a small factor, But when it goes toward Biden, I just don't see Trump being able to string together in those states. Guys,

for real. I could talk to you about this for another hour, but sadly we only have a minute left. So I want to ask you this following question. If you then are following what you just said, you both believe that the value is on Biden. Uh. There are some markets by how much then will either the GOP win in the electoral College? If you believe that, by how much will the Democrats? Uh? And there are ranges on this and we could flash those up at Visa

dot com and the Visa app. Um, what is your best And obviously this is where you really get into the weeds of electoral math. This state goes this way, if that state goes the other way. What's the range by which you think And you guys both said Biden that you think specifically Biden will win by and it's you know, there's a there's a one to nine, ten to ninety to fifty nine six nine, there's all kinds of ranges. Give be your best guess on that, pam Um.

Without having to do all that math in my head, I'm just going to go with a landslide. Landslide, Wow, Mac, I see the electoral vote being somewhere in the neighborhood of three hundred to three twenty for the Democrats. I think there are enough states to get picked up that we land in there. You've got to look at some weird things to come out with the precise count, including what happens to the one weird congressional district in Maine

that roots on the town. So that sounds like a triple digit electoral win or just shy of that is what I'm getting with three twenty. Well be the total electoral count, so that would be yeah, triple digit or just about their hundred or so or just shy yeah, Mac For standing Pamela mal Donado can't thank you too enough. Thanks for spending the hour. I appreciate it so much. And again, congratulations to both of you on a great video pod that you did together which completely inspired this.

So thank you to you both. Appreciate Pamela and Mack right here on the Numbers Game Advisa. We will talk for