Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 9 Preview

to leave Bar Canada please turn out the lights. I mean, but I mean but the Sunday before Circle Open, we had a hundred and fifty people in this area. And last Sunday I called over. They said we've got three customers. So well, we still love over. It's COVID safe, it's safe. There's a lot of distancing. That's the voice of Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at Circuit Sports. And that's the voice of Todd wishnep know what. And here's the thing.

He got so upset at me calling his his attic a cork addict that now he has given us a virtual background. Todd, please explain your background. For those who will watch the video of this well, you know, as as you know, I like to talk about models and and how if you put bad things and models, they come out bad, and if you put good things and model they come out good. That's why I call a real good model a Google Loosh model. Some data some eyes see with your eyes. And that's my guy back

there who runs my Goolosh model. There. It is Todd Wish to everybody, and our rotating guest today, who has been on the show many times before. We're happy to have him back this week from the Power Rank, the creator of The Power Rank, and of course the host and co host of more than one podcast, including his own football analytics podcast and one that he does with his buddy Jim Sunnis. Uh, fan duel, It's PhD from Stanford and Fang. How you doing it? I'm doing great, kill,

Thanks so much for having me on. Intro? Was all that accurate? I believe that was all accurate. I think my PhD somewhere around this room. Uh, but I don't know if I could find the proof. But yeah, I believe that to be accurate. Can you tell people I love it? I know you probably hate that I do this all the time. Can you tell people the subject of your PhD just because I think it's awesome just to hear it. Yeah, so I did my PhD and

statistical mechanics. So it's a branch of physics where you try to understand the bulk properties of matter from the fact that it's made up of atoms, and so you have a lot of noise. I love quantum physics, and yeah, a new ton of physics is awesome. So so anyways, when you think about things on the atomic level, there's a lot of noise. Things jiggle around, right, And though that type of noise ends up being looking exactly like

what we see in sports. So it ended up being a perfect background to to get into sports and understanding what happens when the randomness and football and basketball and all kinds of other sports. God, do you feel bad about your ghoulash model? Now here's the thing, quantum mechanics and um and what was that? What was the other thing? Oh, Mike's belly and your belly are very similar. A lot of things jiggle around a lot. You heard, I threw

my belly into it. This guy loses a few pounds, and all of a sudden, it's other people's bellies to Todd was very close to getting a PhD in in in quantum physics as well, but he focused on his career as a D three basketball player. Right as a converted Orthodox Jude D three baller, I don't mind our kindergarten antics over here, but I do love what did you say it? Oh, I'd rather be a D three basketball player, man ship, Oh yeah, hell yeah? And anyways,

you plays I didn't play Division three. I would have claimed, He claims he would have been a legend at Division three basketball. The problem is that I got brainwashed into a rabbinical seminary in Jerusalem, learning Talmud ten hours a day, and then that ruined my basketball career. But I was quite good. I probably could have played even Division two. But uh, you know whatever, you could have been a regular. Who was that kid in Baltimore that were the Yama

cut that was like a big he? Actually, you know, Tamir Goodman went to the high school I went to in Pittsburgh, and I was the superstar before him. Tam Goodman. Well, growing up in d C. There all of a sudden there was this kid Tamir Goodman in Baltimore. Yeah, Jewish Jordan. They called him. He was supposed to be like the

next big thing. What happened and nothing happened? Maryland. Maryland was supposedly recruiting him, but he really wasn't that good and he ended up but he still played Division one. That's still pretty good. Yeah, give him that. All right, it's week nine in the National Football League. Todd, did you want to update records? I think this is what starts the show now. Sure. Gilly the Iceman had a huge week last week. I believe it's three and nada to put him from n in eleven one to twelve

eleven and one. He gets over the five hundred mark. Unfortunately, he loses his first teaser in a while and goes to six and two. Mikey had a poor week from one and two. He went to thirteen ten and one. Still a very solid season, but from Circa and I also had a good week of two and one to move to eleven and thirteen. Me and Mikey both lost our teasers, so all three of us are six and two on teasers. Still extremely respectable and Mikey the the

Circa Survivor update is amazing. Still week after week, Yeah, we were at three fifty going into week eight, three entries did not did not get submitted again. So that makes all eight weeks that we've had in one or more Survivor entries not get submitted. Is that the same person? It was the one? This time it was a singular person who had three. I feel bad for the guy. I mean, he gets to Thanksgiving with three, that's a

pretty good spot. I think you're gonna have to when you get to Thanksgiving to Derek's double option where you pick both sides of the Lions Texans or if you've got to, I mean, if you've got to, A lot of people have already used Baltimore in Pittsburgh and don't. They won't have that game available on Thanksgiving. So that's a big strategical decision this week. Where did you did you think at the start of the year, when you entered Survivor Gil and you're still alive, correct, that you

would be holding out the football team for Thanksgiving? That's the best pet you know, it's it's it's a huge consideration. And by the way, they might be a consideration this week too, right, but there's a few of them right Houston, because Jake Gluton is starting for Jacksonville, Washington. Um, obviously what you just mentioned in Pittsburgh is a consideration. We

don't know if Matthew Stafford is playing this week. So they're their teams that you know that don't ee that we don't know from week to week what what's going to happen with them, So you know, do you play against Detroit anyway? Detroit plays on Thanks again, but that's not the same thing. Those first three teams are considerations,

so I don't know. Three thirty one now, so we lost, uh yeah, lost nineteen um nine of them I believe lost with the with the pack or no, the Bengals, and then a seven with the Packers and then another three to lose nineteen to go from three fifty and what one circle? Quarterly? What was the record? Um seventeen and three? I believe split four ways. If Tampa Bay would have covered on Monday night, it would have been split seven ways. It was pretty interesting. Wow, people, some

people took out credit lines to hedge. Oh I'm sure they hedged. They hedged with the Giants and won the straight bet because if if Tampa would have covered, they would have got a seventh of the pool. So I mean they must have hated to make that bet, and

then the end must have just been thrilled. Yeah. Wow, alright, well new quarterly starts now, right, starts this week twelve, and then you do five weeks at the five weeks for the last through seventeen see and of course survivor the cork being that thanks Giving is its own day. So we are through eight weeks next week. If you get through your you're through half, but you're not really through half because Thanksgivings. Thanksgiving us the big roadblock for

a lot of people. But the debate, the great debate this week now where we only lost nineteen and we still have three thirty one, is do you think there will be someone or multiple people that go eighteen and oh and and it's been a pretty good debate. I think there's gonna be a lot of people that go, you know why, because there's some teams that are just so bad in this NFL. They can't beat anybody, and

you can pick against them. I said this on Erica, and I said, I haven't had a chance to talk to Mike about this, but if you hadn't included the Thanksgiving anomaly, you would have had maybe a hundred people end up going the whole way. I'm all shaw Um who is a bit player at Vesta, and uh texted me this week. He's so mad he only bought one survivor he's still alive, like you are. I think you

bought two, bought one, he said. If I had it to do over again, I'd have bought five because I needed them to go into Thanksgiving and sacrifice a couple of them to move on. He's right, He's right. I lost my first one the very first week, and I've had these second one the whole way through. Okay, let's talk week nine before we, uh, we get into our best bets. Let's talk about the Thursday night game. Maybe this is somebody's best bet and this has been the

strangest Thursday Night game of them all. Uh. It was a line that was on the board, then off the board, then on the board, then off the board, then back on the board. The reason for that A J. Dillon of the Packers tested positive and that ended up creating a situation where the Packers where you didn't know if

Aaron Jones was gonna play anyway. By the way, Aaron Jones questionable tonight, they say if he suited up, don't expect the full workload even if it does, even if he does play, um and so the Packers are gonna be depleted there Um Jamal They're already without Jamal Williams, so it'll be Tyler Irvin and Dexter Williams household names in the backfield, whether Jones plays or not. Uh. Then

there was the Niners. They already have the Garoppolo injury and the and the more importantly the Kittle injury from this past weekend. Kittle's gone for basically the rest of the regular season. Garoppolo will be gone from multiple weeks, whether you think that's the downgraded Nick Mullins or not. Then they had a Kendrick Born positive test and because of tracing. Then last night we hear, well, here's the deal.

They're also gonna have a bunch of guys that are on the COVID nineteen reserve list, including Brandon aiyuk uh, including Deebo Samuel who already had an injury anyway, So the Niners will not have a single player tonight who played a down in the NFC Championship, and they will have players with the names of Trent Taylor and Richie James out on offense tonight. Maybe a Kevin White signing. That might be one name you remember, Chicago Bears first

round draft pick. But they're gonna have to think of calling players up like River Craik Aft or Chris Finkey. I don't know who they'll end up in the end, but that's the story. And so the line has crept up all week long. I crept up, has just zoomed upward. And this morning it had gone past the seven to seven and a half right now, Todd, you tell me if if this is right, I'm seeing more sevens than

seven and a half. So what are you saying I'm seeing? Uh? Yeah, yeah, I would say I would say it's like seven, yeah, close to seven, closer to seven right now. But I did see it was It was seven and a half this morning for sure. And there's some spots words seven a half. Anyway, does anybody have a play given that whole backdrop, ed will start with you anything on tonight's Thursday night game at all? Well, it kind of depends on what Todd is gonna suit off for wide receiver

for the for the Niners tonight. With this with his with his basketball skills, So, um, injury can't I'm injured, I'm out, alright, alright, Well, that that definitely changes my mind. The thing that's really interesting to me about San Francisco is that, you know, they've been really good despite all their defensive injuries this year. My numbers have liked them. My numbers would have actually predicted that movement from Seattle being a three point favorite to one point favorite last week.

But you know, the injuries are piling up, and when you have no wide receivers and you and you're missing a difference maker like George Kittle, Um, it's hard to I mean, it's hard for me to quantify what those cluster injuries means. So uh, it's a past for me. Um, although I do think seven and seven seven and a half for for Green Bay on the road is a lot. Yeah, that that it definitely met resistance initially at seven, that it did get through to seven half. I'm seeing six

and a half in some spots now too. Mikey, anything is Jimmy g playing, He's done, it's Nick mullins. I Uh, it's not an official play, um, but in real life, I've I've got plus seven. I just I can't get over in my mind the Packers two performances in California last year, both when they went to play the Chargers in Carson and got completely dominated, and then and then the NFC Championship games. So it's tough to lay seven on the road. And let's face it, their offense has

gone dormant for stretches now. Um, they scored ten early in Tampa Bay and then and then nothing, and then last week a Vikings team that's still depleted and young defense, and I know Zimmer's coaching them up and they're going to get better as the year goes along. But I mean, they couldn't put points on the board in the second half of that game either. So I like the points tonight, taking the points, but not an official bet Todd anything.

I leaned the opposite way. I I saw a thing on Twitter that showed all the people that we're in the starting lineup for San Francisco's offense and like everybody's out, basically just like you just gave even Lineman everybody. It's just ridiculous. And have you had enough of the Nick Mullins and Bobby Bethard experience? Is you know? I mean it's ridiculous. Who is the guy's name, CJ. Grandson, his grandson,

just like Dwayne Haskins is Clem Haskins. I call c J. Bethard, Bobby Bethord, so so c J. Bethord and uh and Mullins experience is ridic lists and not worthy. Plus the Packers got smoked last week against Minnesota. I think you're you're going to run into a buzz saw here the Niners. This is not their year. It's it's a check please for the Niners. This year it is through no fault of their own. Man. They I mean, it's incredible, It's right, it's incredible what they've been able to do. The running

back position has been a turnstyle. By the way, Trent Williams their standout, you know, multiple year Pro bowler with Washington, who's now with the Niners. He's on the COVID nineteen reserve list. You're right there. Their offensive lineup tonight is like a baseball lineup on like a random getaway day in the middle of July where they're just throwing in everybody. It's like Tau Schman and Kick, Cairo Estrada and Mike Ford and you know, it's the it's it's ridiculous. I

believe that's pronounced Teloman by the way. Yeah, alright, so no official plays then for anybody, I will say, I'll probably I do think by game time I will probably talk myself into a Green Bay teaser leg. That's not sad. That's probably going to be in our teaser here, might I think? So? Now, what about with this take on the forty Niners offense? This is still a pretty high total, forty eight and a half if one team is so depleted, um,

and it's come down from from north of fifty. But yeah, so I know people, I know people that teased Packers and the under Tonighters and unders. So down to one and and under fifty four and a half would very well be a play for me on Primetime Action tonight on the MSG plus Live from the South Point. All right, Uh okay, best bets AD Number one for you, sir is Yeah. So the number one game I kind of like this week is New Orleans with the points at

Tampa Bay. I think this is gonna be incredible match up with with what New Orleans to be able to do with their offense without Michael Thomas for most of the year very high. My efficiency numbers. Third, I look at a Justice success rate. Um, we'll see what happens with Antonio Brown. But uh, and they faced Tampa Bay that's got one of the best defenses in the league.

So I feel like that's an excellent matchup. Um. When I run the numbers for this game, it's hard for me to make a line that's as big as four or I actually bet this at five earlier in this week. Um, when you just look at the data from this year, including you know how New orleans Is defense has kind of struggled. Um, I mean the most I can make this is is uh is Tampa Baby by by two and a half points. So I definitely think there's value

on the New Orleans side. I think this is a key for I mean, I think, you know, we could definitely see these teams, uh, you know, meeting in the playoffs. I think the to the primary Super Bowl contenders in the league, along with Seattle. But I'll take New Orleans in the points. Aaron Shots is number one team in d v o A at this point in the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But New Orleans has uh definitely not had a intact lineup, Michael Thomas in and out

of the lineup, and Drew Brees. Though this year this is an amazing stat. Drew Brees last week one pass beyond twenty yards in the air. One for the season. Six. That's a lot for him. I think a lot of those six passes came against Detroit and maybe five, is that right. I didn't know that because everyone was complaining about his A dot average death to target on the

I think it was the Sunday night game before. I think they were playing Green Bay and then I actually had New Orleans, uh, you know, covering the points in Detroit, and he was airing it out. He was whipping him downfield. I think he's capable of doing it, but I don't know. I don't know whether it's the game plan or what not. Um, but just didn't get to Kamara and let him beat fourteen guys for a first down every time. So don't

fix it. And you know, I'm sorry. I keep going, I'm sorry, No, no, no no, no, I think that's exactly I'm kind of done. I mean, I think, I mean, I mean, we'll see what happens with Antonio Brown. We'll see what happens when Michael Thomas gets back. I think he's still capable. Um. So, I I know people like to make a lot of what he's doing in terms of how far he's doing in the ball downfield. But even though he isn't, they've still been very efficient on

the offensive side of the ball. Uh. And they'll they'll they'll get one of the toughest tests in this game. And you're right, Antonio Brown makes his debut for the Buccaneers. Todd, You're right, that is that does seem to be their game plan throughout three yards to Camara and haven't beat I think you said fourteen guys. Uh, Mikey, I've come. I've talked about your a dot all all year long.

And also I've never heard of that. Heard of eight gaps holes but not eight dots is a dump average depth of belly twice now in the first ten minutes. It's a little over the top. It's a little over the top, dot, um, But this Camara to speak to Camara, I mean, what what is the stat He's got five seventy receiving yards and five forty are yak? I mean it's incredible. Everything's behind the line of scrimmage. Think about for I didn't play fantasy this year. I think about

for fantasy football players who like. The three guys they were drafting at the top were Zeke, you know, uh, McCaffrey done for a huge stretch, he's coming back this week. And then the other one was Kwan, who had gone for the year. So if you ended up with Camara at four, you like won the lottery. Zeke has character issues. Pollard looks better than I like it. Yeah, he's Pollard has more energy than Zeke doesn't. If you're watching, yes, yes, did you want to interrupt? Go ahead, go ahead and

want to interrupt? I waited patiently. You didn't. I did, Actually, I said, whild talking. I agreed with the Pollard. It was a good point. Zeke has no energy. I agree. Now. I don't know if this bothers you guys, but I can't stand when they get on ESPN or Fox Sports and the narrative becomes Drew Brees doesn't throw the ball down the field. We know Drew Brees doesn't throw the ball down the field. Let's not go overboard. They still

move the football, folks. Okay, so this is I think that there's there's like these narratives like last year, Oh Miami, dol often stink. Ryan Fitzpatrick stinks, what are you talking about? Or here's another narrative, Trump's outperforming, it's over, it's done. The whole thing's over. Trump minus seven hundred, it's all done.

Slow your role, folks, Slow your role. We know Drew Brees can't throw the football down the field, but as Ed has very ably pointed out, they still move the football and that's part of the game, moving the football. Am I wrong? Gil, You're not You're not incorrect, Todd wish you're not incorrect, and and Todd I agree with you because I feel like you see the flip side of that argument to be like, look at this guy in his cannon arm right, Like that's gonna like propel

Drew Lock. Drew Lock's got a cannon. Yeah, but count to seven. I still have New Orleans. I still have New Orleans at full strength. Is one of the five best teams in football. I still believe. You want to say something, Mikey, I first pick, just to get it

back on the rails, thank you. I I regretted that I didn't take the football team against the Cowboys because you know, for four weeks in a row, I was against the Cowboys, right, four weeks in a row on this on this megapod, And in the last two weeks I didn't aren't number are number one picks are about to be the same? You? You? You know, I think so you You actually are lucky probably if you had

Philly last week and you covered them. Remember I said, if the number was out at late ten and I and and I did, and I didn't feel good about it. How How is that touchdown, that final touchdown not reverse? How that's as bad as the East Carolina game at Tulsa with all those calls. I would we were talking about this morning, we've done the Todd Wright theory and pulled him off the field, the the h the Philadelphia

touchdown that was not reversed. When all of a sudden, we looked up in Jalen Hurts was running a two point conversion. Uh. The Bears being given forward progress on what ended up being a game tying drive when there was no whistleblown, and the rest were like, oh, yeah, well, I know the fumble happened, but let's just give him forward progress. Uh. Russell Wilson fake sliding and then inducing a flag and then four different things at the end

of that Tampa game. I'm sorry, go ahead, but this Dallas team, I mean this this team, and nobody believed at the beginning that they were the worst team in football, right that the public would not allow the number to get high enough and still made him favorite on Monday Night against Arizona. Okay, that was when they still had Dac and Dalton and now they have nothing. And now they have I don't know who they'll play at quarterback. Mike McCarthy doesn't want you to know till the game time.

If it's Cooper Rusher, Garrett Gilbert. I mean, it's just unbelievable. And the defense only Philadelphia could not perform because you know, teach me how to Doug. You won't run the foot, all right, he's insisted. He insists, to drop back and throw the football sixty times again. All you have to do is run the ball against Dallas. They cannot stop the run. I'm gonna lay thirteen and a half with Pittsburgh. I don't know that Dallas. I don't know that Dallas

is gonna score. Will you late fourteen? I don't know. I'd like thirteen and a half, Todd. It's not even close, Mike. I see a lot of thirteen and a half. I got four. I got fourteen across the board. It's across the board, fourteen, Mikey. You come on here, a giant corporation looking right here at the top sports book in the world's number. Look at the number. Look at the number. To build the gigantic resort in Las Vegas, one of

the most gorgeous resorts of all time. The least you can do is know what the widespread number is going. I can't. I can't delve in those offshore places, and you know I can't do that. I only have to look at what is a legal line for me to bet in the state of Nevada and betted circule. But that's a legal line in the state of Nevada. So here's what I'll do. I'll lay fourteen with the Steelers.

I don't care Dallas. This game is. If I had to predict the final score in this game, I would say thirty eight to six because mccarthyel kick a couple of field goals down four touchdowns. Maybe at some point this is just I mean, the team is quit, all right, everybody's quit on McCarthy. The coaches are unprepared, he brings Nolan and I mean, it's just it's it's awful. It's awful what's going on in Dallas. And nobody gets that. They're worse than Jacksonville. Their worst. They're the worst team.

We we went through our mid season. Who are best five teams? Who are worst five teams? Yesterday on Prime Time Action, every one of us had Dallas in the bottom five, not even close. Spending new Chie poor guy, he he is not an NFL quarterback. That was not fair. He wasn't a Division one quarterback. I'm gonna transfer from it to James Madison and see how that goes. Uh, Todd, your first bet, by the way, our first bet was not the same, Todd. My first bet is. You know,

most of these games are impossible to pick pregame. You know, just quick diet tribe. Don't bet pregame, Folks bet in game. Y'all know why. I'm not gonna go over a million times more times. But okay, Uh, there's one game that is leaping off the page to me, leaping off the page to me, and that's the Baltimore Ravens. Baby. The Baltimore Ravens won the football game against my beloved Yenser's

last week. Now, I know on the final on the final score, it showed Pittsburgh Stars more than Baltimore Ravens and that, But the bottom line is Distillers were outgained by a gazillion and the only reason that they won that game is because Lamar gave it to them. Now we know Lamar is not great in the big games. We know that he's not great in the big games. But as Philip Rivers Indie Colts a big game, I think not. So now you're gonna tell me I get

to go. Now, remember another thing, Baltimore's got a nice defense. If they can hold the Pittsburgh Steelers down, what they can't hold the statue of Philip Rivers down. Plus, I get to bed against Philip Rivers, which is the most fun feeling in the world. After all the times he has so crushingly killed me, so crushingly killed me time and time again inside the ten yard line when I just need a couple of points fail, I get to go against this asshole. So give me the Ravens minus

to I hate Phil Rover. You can't even say the name of the anoj H. This was I was considering making this either my number two or my number one pick, but since you've gone on it, I'm just gonna make it my number one too. It's Baltimore for me as well. For all the reasons Todd stated, let me just back them up with some numbers. Ravens two hundred sixty five yards rushing last week against the Steelers defense. Uh, that is the most rushing yards in a loss in Ravens

franchise history. They had seventy nine total place to the Steelers fifty. They outpossessed the Steelers to eight, but they were minus three in turnovers. They were nine penalties for a hundred ten yards. Basically, it was Alex Highsmith's pick six and then another terrible pass from Lamar that was picked off. Actually the first one was Robert Splaine on the pick six parton me, and then the second one was an Alex Highsmith pick which gave them another twenty

one yard short field. So really the defense staked the Steelers fourteen points. That's why they were able to win in the end. But even then, Baltimore had a chance to win. At the end of that football game, Um They're the better team by far. This number has come down, and I can't believe that. I'm all over Baltimore, who again didn't doing our top five and bottom five yesterday. Baltimore is in the top five best teams in the NFL. I'm with you on that last point. I any chance

I get to bet against Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers, after all the harm he's done us in the past, it's a comfortable position to be in Baltimore my first bet too. You know the stats in that game where ludicrous seventy five plays to fifty thirty six minutes to twenty four, you know. And I had a great debate on the Lambar party line with with Todd's good friend Michael Lombardi. What's the first time it's happened since Matt Humans left

the show and Patrick maher came on. Usually everything is acquiesced. But his top play was Pittsburgh last week. My top play was Baltimore, and our whole theory of the game was I thought Baltimore could rush the ball effectively, and he thought the Steelers would force him to get behind the chains and Lamar would have to be a drop back pass her. I said you had a wrong reason, winner, Michael, you were right. Pittsburgh did not force him. Greg Roman

forced him to become a drop back passer. You know Greg Roman from Ventnor, New Jersey. He might he might be back at a Holy Spirit up seeking soon if he doesn't understand he needs to run the ball and stop having Lamar Jackson passed from deep in his own territory. I didn't understand. Ludicrous, uh the only but a quick question, please please, of course you know how Mike Mike does his ow. Can I ask the guests a question thing?

I would like to do that right now. This is a serious question because it seems like you're very math, medical and model based. How do you I feel like in the in the in football, there's more crap numbers in there because so much of the game has to do with what's the score of the game, what time of the game. You know, in the late third quarters, good teams that are up a lot are not really trying the same way, and that leads to filthy numbers

as opposed to in other sports. There's filthy numbers, but they're not as bad because in baseball people are still trying to get a hit. In the ninth thingning, you know what I mean, Whereas in football so much a situational how do you clean up the debris so to speak? Excellent question? Yeah, I mean in some stimes, I don't.

I mean with NFL, the scores are so tight that that I usually assume that, Like I use all the data and and so you know, one of the things that I've started using is success rate, which, um, you know, plays a success if you get half of the yards on first down on second and all on third and fourth down. So metrics like that are supposed to account for the situation in which ways, like you know, yours for play doesn't necessarily do that. Um. Yes, So contact

is really important in football, and I completely agree with that. Um, you know I would say that. I mean, of course I trust my numbers, but I I will always um add the the element of watching football games to to adjust for those types of things. And um yeah, I mean I try to combine both of those when I'm I'm making my bets. You know, our friend Bob stole ed you know what he used to answer to that question.

He would manually go back and just erase certain parts of games, tip typically the very end right with the reneal downs. That's the most dark example, but just you know, drives that were meaningless and not as part, as you say, Todd, of the actual game script of winning it right when that was beyond that portion of the game. So he would actually have to go back and manually raise because he felt that that would pollute his data otherwise if he didn't do that. So I think that's the answer

to your question. By the way, Tennis is rife with that stuff, right, because if I'm up on you, Todd, two sets to one. You remember those days if I'm up on you two sets to one, were you ever getting them? Joking? It's a joke, Todd. If if a tennis player is up on another tennis player two sets to one in a five setter, right, but then the person who the player who's down two sets to one is up a break. The person up two to one oftentimes will just take the rest of the set off.

And so that's kind of like the tennis equivalent. It's it's yea to conserve energy for the fifth Set's correct? That's interesting. Yeah, So it's very difficult to sort of weed out that versus someone actually tanking. That sort of thing. But did you notice what Ed said? Ed's said the goo losh model is the way to do. You have to have a watching of football games to know what stats are important, numbers wise, and which you're not so all of you, you know, nerd crunchers who just think

numbers are the only thing, and you can't. You know, you have to go to Circle and watch all the games. You have to go to Circer. Now, is there smoking at Circle mic because I can't handle smoke, in which case I'm gonna need to go to stadium swim outdoors and I'm gonna need a free pass because of all the popcorn I bought you at the South Point. Please publicly say that I will get a free pass to stadium swim whenever I ever get back to Vegas. Pod you will get a free pass to stadium swim if

you ever get back to Vegas. There is smoking aloud, although with the mask rules you can smoke. You can take a puff, but then you must put the mass back up it. You have to be actively smoking. You don't get you just take your mask down because you have a cigarette sitting there in the ashtray. Okay, so we enforced that. So it's a little bit of a deterrent to smoking that in the tier that it puts in your lungs. By the way, Ed did not actually use the words coolash model. Just want to point that.

But but Gil, it's kind of what he said. Carefully. I want to say one other things. Stanford took a big hit with me in the last couple of weeks. I used to really be impressed with people from Stanford, but um, Ed, we have a friend who's from Stanford who's not that intelligence. Sometimes he's actually an intelligent guy, but he says some things that are just ridiculous and so but I just had that's an inside joke with

me and Gil head is nothing to do with you. Sorry. Well, I mean a Stanford degree is like you know, like like like a fruit being called organic. Right, It's nice to have the label, but it doesn't guarantee the quality inside. Ed pick number two, alright, So pick number two. I am going with the Houston Texans against uh, the Houston Texas against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I bet this a minus six and a half. Um. The thinking here is

that I love Deshaun Watson. I was on my my other podcast and and our guests described as Shaun Watson as the most underrated as an underrated quarterback, which I I find interesting. I mean, I don't know how you can watch that guy play with the talent he has and will Fuller and possibly think he's underrated. Obviously, there's circumstances with how they have not had success on the football field. Part of that as a schedule. Part of

that is that the defense is awful. But in general I like betting on Deshaun Watson because he's an incredible quarterback. The other thing that's going on with this game is that Gardner Minshew is not playing football for for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Um they they weren't particularly good under Minshew. So they're actually twenty six when I look at my adjusted passing success rate, so so not good. But I do expect to drop off when they go to a

six round draft pick in rookie Jake Jake Lutton. Lutton am I saying that Luton? Oh? I remember him? Go ahead? So so anyways, I mean I do like this game because of the quarterback back matchup. I think you're taking a top five quarterback in the NFL with a guy who has never done it in an NFL game yet, Um, I think Houston is hungry for some wins because they

don't have that many of them this year. And you know Houston's defense is bad, right, I mean, you know when I look at past defense in terms of my adjusted passing success right there. Um, And it might be without their best cornerback in Bradley Roby. But uh, I like to Shawn Watson, I like Houston. Uh, And I will lay the points here. But way, Houston spank Jacksonville in that early game and Jacksonville did not move the ball on them with Minshoe, So I agree with you.

I think I think it could be a big spank down Houston against them. Here's the thing. Houston is a potential survivor pick because of the quarter but not not necessarily because of the quarterback change. But certainly doesn't dissuade one with the quarterback change. If anything, it's a it's a check in the positive mark positive column. But first of all, the Thanksgiving implications because Houston's and Thanksgiving team.

I just the self loathing that would go on if I picked Houston and lost on Houston would be off the charts. I would just hate myself to lose on that team. But I totally or everything you're saying. Um, Mikey, who's conducting business. You're the busiest dude ever Right now, By the way, I'm gonna go against Anthony Lynn and I'm gonna take the Raiders. The Raiders, I was impressed.

I thought they played a complete game in all facets for the first time last week at Cleveland and is I don't know what the psyche can be with the Chargers after they've blown leads of eleven, seventeen, seventeen, sixteen, and now twenty one. I mean this was the the icing on the cake last week. I mean they're up three touchdowns and Drew Lock can't even get a pass off. I mean they're sacking him every other play. They were booing him at Mile High and they somehow lose that game. Um,

have blown four leads of sixteen plus this year. What's the scenario that they can win and they have to they have to come from way behind. I mean, if that's that's that's where they get. Okay. I'm I'm happy with the Raiders being up a couple of scores. I just I don't know whether they can go with this guy Lynn, I mean, he's a nice man, done a lot of charity where he should be coaching the unit

set football team, not not in the NFL. I in game undered the hell out of that game, though it was it was the whole week was about weather in five cities in the NFL, uh potentially being really a factor Green Bay, Cleveland, Buffalo sincident in Chicago. I missed the initial number chance the middle, so I decided I'm gonna watch the actual game and see where it really

is affecting affecting play. And when that field goal in that game was going dead's down the center and then took a hard left, I was like, that's the game. So I I in game undered it. I just wanna just to be accurate here, know the the Cleveland Raiders game forty four, forty four and a half, forty three and a half, forty one and a half, thirty nine and a half, and thirty seven. I got it at thirty nine and a half and thirty seven and a half.

Those were the two bets I mean, And that was it was a little bit after I didn't know about it. I was sitting at stadium swim with Mitch and Paul text me and said, did you see the Brown's first field goal? And I said no. He said, it was both wide right and right wide left in the same kick. It was right down the middle. It was right down the middle and wide left. That's a great call by him. Yeah, And so I wasn't really paying attention to the game, and so I said, so then then then I had

a couple of games. That was the only way to play the weather, I thought. Um, speaking of which, did you guys see the field goal from like a million yards that has Sham had to make go in against me? The guy who at the line drive field goal that was like literally four ft off the ground at the end of the half. Only that could only happen to me. I still and watching it. I wasn't sure it even went in, you know, because it just duck tailed. It was so low. I didn't have any idea. And then

the officials looked at each other. So I think that went in, didn't Um? Alright, Todd? Number two? Okay, my number two is gonna be the under under the total in the Miami Dolphin in Arizona Cardinals game. And that is what number do you have forty eight and a half. Yeah, you missed the hit it. By the way, I'll get to Miami, Dolph for I have forty eight and a half. Look again, Gilly, it's forty eight and a half. One of the things you need to know to a can't

run this offense. You better get Mr Fitzpatrick back because Miami can go to the playoffs. What are you doing, Miami? Okay, I'm gonna take the under in this football game. And here's why Miami. Miami cannot move the football. Did you watch the game last week against the Rams. They scored all them points because Jared A hundred and fourteen million

dollar golf gave them eighteen hundred turnovers. And every five seconds I turned around and and Miami's defense is running the other way with another interception, touchdown or a fine with darn touchdown or a fumble. It was unbelievable. Ta is not ready Okay now, Matt maybe two will be the next Jesus Joe Burrow. Maybe maybe it's possible. I didn't see it last week. I don't know if you guys saw it, but I didn't see anything from Tuah that made me think he was even better than fits

right now. So to me, how's Miami gonna be moving the football up and down the field. They'll probably get some points, but forty eight and a half connotes a decent sized total. Conversely, their defense is fantastic. Their defense is all over. Mr Jared Goff. He was averaging four point four yards of play at halftime. I love looking at the yards per play at halftime. They could not move the ball against Miami, you know, very consistently. Miami's

defense is pretty good, folks. I know it's hard for me to I love that coach that Miami coaches really really good. He's got that team playing a tight brand of football. Now they're gonna blow it because they have to give the money. They have to give the playing time to Tuah. You know, to Ah, he's the great, He's Jesus. You gotta get too on the field. You know what, Miami could be a playoff team, folks, if they would just let Fitzpatrick stay on the football field.

But okay, that being said, let's take the under. Miami is gonna keep their scoring down. Miami's defense is gonna keep the other team scoring down. Give me the under forty eight and a half, am I wrong you are because it's forty eight look all olf, but okay, um, by the way, UH, don't sell Jared golf short. It's a hundred twenty eight million dollars, one fourteen of which is guaranteed. Uh and the only three pre flop bets

I made this. I made the season Patriots under nine and a half because of all the opt outs, Dolphins over six Dolphins to win the division at plus eleven fifty. Everything is live. But you're right. It worries me. That's two. Now your numbers coming down? I mean you've got a good number, because what is now six dollars? Six dollars? Uh.

That Miami Arizona box score. Though we thought Baltimore and Pittsburgh was a weird box score, this Miami Arizona box score from last week was maybe the oddest box score you'll ever see in your life. Um on Arizona, say Miami, Miami Rams. Oh, Miami Rams for last week. I'm sorry they playing Fami Arizona this week? Right, Miami Rams, Miami

excuse me? The Rams thirty one first downs the Dolphins eight uh four seventy one yards total offense for the Rams, one five for the Dolphins nine two plays for the

Rams forty eight. There's that forty for the Dolphins, thirty thirty one in time of possession, basically two short fields uh for the Dolphins thirty three yards in one yard Christian Wilkins interception, Kyle van Noy fumble return, one strip, sack return for a touchdown, Emmanuel Agua with the sack Andrew Van Ginkle to the house, and then a punt return for a touchdown j King Grant eighty eight yards.

The flip side of that is you could argue, based on game script, Miami didn't have to do anything after that, right, But we'll see miss the field goal that cost me plus nine and a half. How I lost plus nine and a half in game on the Rams on that game is only Hashem in Miami. They miss a field goal down eleven to cut it to eight. It was unbelievable. But then ways that being said, ed, what do you think about to come on seriously, Well, I don't know,

I don't. I mean, yeah, he didn't exactly have the greatest performance in that game. Um, from what I've seen in college, Yeah, I mean, I think he's got all the potential in the world to be great. I mean, does he have the talent around into Miami. I don't know. We'll see, but we don't know yet. In any Alabama quarterback that comes to the pros has a downgrade in his receiving corps. Right, guys that Mac Jones is thrown to.

This year, Jones has been great and I think he's going to be a first round pick in this next draft. But yeah, he's got two first rounders that he's thrown too. And it's and it's kind of it's kind of incredible. And that's without Jay Little Waddle exactly. Well, I mean, shouldn't run through the end. Yeah, yes, I'm not saying two is gonna be bad. I'm just saying you haven't proven anything yet. And don't give me. They won the football game, but he didn't do anything. Okay, play one game,

all right? One game? Yeah? Nick, Nick Saban, that just couldn't keep his mouth shut. Well he shouldn't, you know, that's tough. He shouldn't take that ball out of it. That's what happens when you take the ball on the back and shut up, Nick, Just it's poor kids injured for the rest of the year. Shut up, Nick Saban. Couldn't help himself. My number two pick. By the way, Hasham and I have to explain this to the guest every week, is Orthodox jew for God. I just want

to point that out, alright. And what I'm basically saying is God will always kill me with field goal kickers, whether in college, whether in pros. If I need him to make it, they will always miss it. If I need him to miss it, they will always make it. This can only be experienced either in quantum physics by Schrodinger chat or it's Hashem. It's the Hashem factor. A Jem hates me alright because we're behind schedule, We're behind

the chains here. We'll move on pick number two. I am on the Washington football team, giving two and a half against the New York Giants. I actually think Washington is live to win the NFC East, which is almost impossible to say. Uh. The Eagles lead that division three four and one. But by the way, I think the Eagles are horrific. But I like Washington with their front seven, solid front seven. They should have beaten the Giants the

first time they played. There was a bad turnover from Kyle Allen late in that game that put the Giants up, and still Washington had a chance to win it, but Riverboat Roun decided to uh, you know, said to himself, oh my nicknames riverboat run, I better go for two here. Uh they shouldn't have. If they didn't get it, they lose to the Giants. Uh two and a half. I'm surprised this is lower than three. I guess three and

a half or four on guessing lines this week. I really like Washington to the point that I'm almost considering them as a sneaky I don't know what I'm doing in Survivor. Let me just say that right now. I have no idea what I'm picking in Survivor yet this week. But Washington's actually in consideration, even though they too play on Thanksgiving. So for me, it's washing. And this is the last thing about this, a very tricky thing the

NFL schedulers did here to the Giants. The Giants aren't a short week and Washington is off a bye, so it's one of these situations where the Giants just get royally hosed from a scheduling standpoint. So Washington for me minus two and a half. You know that came into effect in the playoffs last year when Minnesota went and beat New Orleans in the first round in the wild card game on a Sunday and then had to come back and play at San Francisco Saturday. They had a

short week verst a bye weekend. Everybody loved that spot and and the Niners killed him that they weren't a better team. But it's you're right, It very rarely happens that kind of a scheduling spot. That's very good memory on that stuff. Okay, ed number three, number three, Let's go to uh, Pittsburgh and Dallas and Uh, I'm gonna

I'm gonna take the under in this game. I think we've already discussed about how Dallas is not going to score a lot of points against one of the best defenses um in the NFL, and I completely agree with that, but let's let's actually talk about the other side. So Pittsburgh's offense um doesn't look particularly good by my numbers. So when we look at success rate and adjust for who you play, they're actually in the NFL, and Dallas's

defense rates out pretty well. I know that's hard to see, but I think there's all it's not gonna show up in other metrics, but their eleventh when I look at adjusted success rate. Obviously Pittsburgh's gonna score points if turns the ball over to him a lot of times. Um. You know Lamar gifted them that pick six last week. Um, but this is an ugly game that it's really hard. Uh. It's really hard for me as the numbers guy, to

to use my numbers in this. So I'm just gonna go with with um the fact that I just don't see a lot of points in this game. I think Pittsburgh has scored a lot of points, but the underlying metrics are not good for them. I don't think Dallas is gonna score I can see this. I can see a lot not a lot of points happening in the second half is when Pittsburgh's up like fourteen nothing uh at halftime, So give me under forty one. I think it's forty one and a half. That's what I'm seeing,

or at least about an hour ago when I looked. Uh, Actually, I see as many forty two and a half as I do forty one and a half, and barely any forty twos. What do you see, Todd? I see a lot of forty one and a half, but if you want to give and then I think there's more forty one and a half though, Yeah, well whatever whatever you want to give me. I mean, I see this as

a very low scoring game. Um. And I think Pittsburgh's defense is awesome, but I think they may be a little bit overrated as a Super Bowl contender because of the underlying metrics on offense. Um. Okay, I see forty one and a half across the board. I was actually looking at the wrong game. Forty one and a half across the board. Dang yeah, sorry about yeah, I was looking at the Monday night gave my mad um mikey

number three. I always try to come up with an over, um because I just think that we still have caught up with the trend with without crowd noise, without offensive holding calls. I think these games still lean so far far over. Um. I'm very tempted on this Titans game to go over. I just I'm not a huge believer in the Titans defense, but the Bears defense is pretty pretty good. I don't know a study, Yeah, go ahead, yeah, go ahead. That awayhead Todd just to help Mike out

give him had a tough week this week. There's been a lot on his play. I would like to take it over. I agree with Mike everything Mikey just said, and I would like to take this year's Tampa Bay Bucks. If you guys remember from last year, I was on the over every single week with the Tampa Bay Bucks because they will couldn't stop anyone, and they could score, and Jamis gave you some extra bonus up pick sixes

as well. This year, my really nice over team, a team that can never stop anyone and cannot be stopped themselves, are the Russell Wilson led Seattle Seahawks. If you've noticed, they are five and two to the over this year, and the two games that didn't go over missed it by a point twenty seven to twenty six in the Minnesota game under fifty four by a point, and thirty four twenty three in the Miami game under fifty five

by a point. Every other game has been over, and these are going over in fifty games line fifty five, fifty seven, fifty five, fifty four, crazy asked numbers, and they still go over. Why do they go over? Because DK metcalf is a based Russell Wilson is a beast. You cannot stop these people. These people will score on you from now until whenever two thousand twenty four til next elector. I don't know. You cannot stop this football team. Conversely,

they can't stop anybody else. I don't know, if you watch. I mean, they were pretty good, you know, while the game was still in hand against San Francisco. But once they got ahead by enough, they just stopped playing defense as well, and they gave Nick Mullins or whoever that was touchdowns at the end. Buffalo can move the football, folks. Buffalo is not a terrible offensive team. I would put them, I don't know, percentile to the top as far as

offense goes. I think Buffalo can move the football, and against the paltry Seattle defense, they will move the football and they will not stop Seattle. No one stops Seattle. One other thing, I checked the weather. It's gonna be mild and Buffalo about six and slightly sunny. Now whether they will be wind or not, check your local listings. But I still do think it will be very difficult for this football game to stay under because both teams are going to score the football. And by the way,

did I say DK metcalf is a beast. That guy is incredible. I mean, that guy is unbelievable. There was somebody who's asking, would you rather be run over by Derrick Henry or be chased from behind? Chased down from behind by DK Metcalf? What would you rather? I'd rather be chased down by came Metcalf. What I mean? I don't know. I'd be worried that I'd get tangled and have another leg injury. So I'd rather just get That's like two fifty pounds of Derrick Henry going right into you.

But you know what, I'll live to tell the tale. The other one, man, I'm staid. Anyways, what's my number on this Seattle? I'm going with you're over fifty five. Over fifty five. That's the highest total on the board this weekend in the NFL. Alright, Mike's let's go to the Dome game in Atlanta Bronco's Falcons. What do you got forty nine and a half or fifty fifty fifty?

I'll go over fifty there. Uh. You know the Denver defense when it plays a quarterback that can throw the ball forward other than Cam Newton, um I thought Fangio's defense would be better this year. They're not great. Um, you know twenty seven by the Chargers through uh through really through two and a half quarters and then of course Lynne stops playing. Uh, and you know Atlanta is going to put points on the board and give them up. So that's my play, all right? You are you concerned?

It all by the fact I have noticed a surprising trend to Atlanta starting to actually play a little defense for a change. Well, when you get Raheem Morris, Uh that it also happened last year too when he got promoted from when he got promoted from UM defensive backs coach to coordinator and now to the head position. They have a little bit more you know, of a focus each time he gets more responsibility on the team. So yeah,

it's true. But they also that was a horrific effort against but the Carolina the Carolina game, that was just I mean, Matt Rule eliminated himself from Coach of the Year consideration in one game. I thought last Thursday, UM, I don't listen to the first two picks. I loved Baltimore Washington. Uh, it's tough, I'll be honest, coming and stepping down from that to three four and five in a contest. But three is difficult enough as it is right here. But I think I'm going to settle for

you ready for this the New York Jets. Wow, whoa Oneday night, New York Jets? Because it's seven and a hook. Uh. There is no other rhymor there. There's no rhymor reason to this other than I believe this is the one of two, the other one being Week seventeen, when it could get squirrely and the Patriots have nothing to play

for against the Jets. I think this is one of two games the Jets have a legit shot of winning this year, and this is the quintessential Monday night standalone game where those guys are like, you know what, We're on national TV. This is our shot in the spotlight. Let's play some football. And I think New England now I realized they didn't have Edelman and Harry last week, and that was obviously a huge downgrade for those guys.

Um checking on their status right now, I think they are both playing Either way, I do not have any confidence in Cam Newton being able to to actually get this done. They'll win, I think in the end, the Patriots. But seven and a half on the road on a Monday night. It's Belichick versus Gaze everybody, and I'm taking Gaze with the points silence on the set. I mean, you could cover seven nothing final seven nothing final? You cover? I don't know. To me, I don't like, I don't

love anything else. That's the one that I point to where I can actually come up with the you know, the reasoning. Again, I just think that that's the night where these guys shine for the New York Jets. And I'm not saying they're winning. But if you give me seven in the hook, which is what it is, I'm all about it. That's my number three pick. I know I might be sacrificing a pick, but that's the one I like best. All Right, this is the Survivor time.

I'm the only one left here. No first teasers, guid teasers, I'm sorry, teasers. We're all six and two. Ed. If you had a two leg six point teaser of the week, what would it be? Yeah, So, I mean I'll tease Baltimore against Indie taking those points, and then I'll add that New Orleans game that I talked in earlier. I'll take New Orleans. So um, I agree, I think Baltimore is a little undervalue here. I agree with what you guys said earlier. I'm a little concerned about the Ronnie

Stanley injury. Um. And then I talked about the New Orleans game earlier. So that'll be my two game teaser Baltimore, New Orleans. What does what does Baltimore become Baltimore? No? No, no, the other through the zero and Ed doesn't care about teasing through the zero you did last week. No, I didn't tease the zero. I thought you did in life. In life. I thought I heard that you said you've teased through the zero and the Saints in real life. In real life. Yeah, that's what I mean in real life.

That's correct. I did, and it worked out. It's going to Ed's going to Baltimore plus four in New Orleans plus ten. Yeah. It wasn't my pick though, but yes I did. Alright, So Baltimore and New Orleans for young Ed Fang Mikey. I'm gonna take the Chiefs down, uh to four and a half? Is that? What is it? Ten and a half? Four and a half. I'm gonna take the Chiefs down, and I'm gonna tease the Razors Raiders up to plus six. I thought we were gonna

have the same one. Okay, Raiders and Chiefs or Mike Todd. I'm gonna take the green Bay Packers to beat the San Francisco whoever is playing, Bobby Bethard or whoever's grandson is playing. I don't know who's playing, but I'm gonna to take green Bay. Just give me the win, green Bay, and I'm gonna go with Ed's Houston team to win. And I think I have to lay in Houston because Ed was laying what was Ed laying on that game? Six and a half? Right? I take Houston down to

point five. Houston just has to win me the football game. Green Bay just has to win me the football game by more than point five of a point, which I think is possible. And that's what I'll take Green Bay. I'm taking one of years and one of yours green Bay in Kansas City for me, green Bay kadsay green Bay to essentially win Kansas City down to four and a half against Carolina. I don't like the tennant half, but I sure like the four and a half. All right, A survivor want me to give you the list of

who you've taken so far. I mean, I remember, but if you want to say it just for a public consumption, go ahead. If people care. GIL so far has used Tennessee, Cleveland, New England, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, and Kansas City last week. This is going to be a GIL. I don't know, and that's the honest. This is the first week where I'm not really sure because there are Thanksgiving considerations with the circle rules, and I don't know my my I can't you know, I can't use Green Bay.

I can, but I won't because I have them earmarked for a subsequent week. But the choices then for me become Washington because I just feel good about them, even though that doesn't have anything to do with the spread about Pittsburgh could use. I just get through the list and then I can tell you all of them. Then

you can come Washington. Houston is a possibility against Jake Luton again and the Jacksonville Jaguy years, but again the self loathing if I lose on Houston will be off the charts, and I don't want to feel that way about myself. UM. Pittsburgh obviously is the is the most obvious choice to touchdown favorites against either Cooper Rusher Garrett Gilbert of the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has Thanksgiving implications as well,

because they play on Thanksgiving. Uh, and then uh, I think that's Oh, then it's it's I gotta watch for Matthew Stafford. Is Matthew Stafford going to play or not? The thing is the deadline of Survivor maybe before I have that information, but Minnesota might be. If I knew Stafford wasn't playing, I might take the Vikings. So the

problem again, the problem with Survivor is Thanksgiving implications. And it's so tough to make a map that those of us who have played Survivor for years always do map out who you're gonna play from week to week because there's just COVID considerations, there's all kinds of things going on until you have your big chart. Did you make the big chart? Not? The first six weeks I didn't. But then after the first six weeks I tried. I was like, Okay, here's what I'm doing. And then you

just realized, like I wouldn't have considered Minnesota. I wouldn't have considered Houston. Who's playing if Stafford doesn't? Is it Blower, Chase Dan Chase, Jase Daniel. I think it's Chase Daniel. Different different of course. Alright, final two questions, are we there? Yeah? Final two questions? All right? Of the big favorites on the board. Wait, so you're not telling us who you're taking it. You're just gonna just pass. There's I don't I don't know the answer to the quick He'll he'll

tweet it. He'll tweet it for the followers, for the records, he will, he will know. I'm not gonna keep it done that before where he wasn't sure on Thursday. Oh wait, what happens when I'm like in the if let's say I got to the final ten and then everybody else knows my pick, Like, you can't do it. No, you can't do Yeah, you can tweet it out at three o'clock once the picks are all right. Uh, these are the big favorites. Who's the most likely to lose outright?

Green Bay seven point favorites tonight against San Francisco depleted Niners team. Um, should I include Tennessee? No, that might be too easy. Ten and a half, Kansas City over Carolina Houston six and a half or seven point favorites. Call it six ahead. Let's call it six and a half at Jacksonville and Luton UM Pittsburgh fourteen point favorites at Dallas, and then New England seven and a half point favorites at the Jets. Who's the mic most likely

to lose that, right? Ed? Oh, definitely green Bay. I mean I can see a scenario where they go into this game tonight. H San Francisco's defense has been good despite the injuries, and they just kind of crammed the ball down Green Bay's throat and Mike Petton doesn't adjust. So probably not gonna happen, but I can I can definitely see a scenario where that game goes that way. Yeah, great, I don't. I don't want to agree with that. I think that's why you won't agree, But I don't. I don't.

I think he's making excellent points, and I actually could see, I could, I could envision exactly what he's saying right now, because I'm probably gonna play that Packers tease for in real life too, So I'm gonna I'm gonna cry and I'm gonna be a big baby when it does happen, And I hope you're wrong, but I could sort of see it. How at the Bears. Can't the Bears beat the Titans? Well that way, I didn't include that on purpose because I knew every I think everybody would pick that.

Then maybe I'll say Jets. Maybe I don't know, can the Jets win a game? Come on, that's what I'm gonna say. I'm gonna say New England, which out goes with my plus seven and a half to some degree. All right, last question. We live in a bizarro world again. Four teams on byes here, the four teams that are on the by are pardon me, pardon me. Four teams on the bye would be the uh Cleveland Brown, Cincinnati Bengals, l A Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles. We're spared from another

Eagle's tobacle. If you had to pick a side in each of these remaining fourteen games, but you've got one free passed, what does the game you want no part of? On the side you know I'm gonna pass on Pittsburgh Dallas. I mean, this is a game for the way I think about, how to account for whoever the heck Dallas is going to put in at the quarterback position. I've talked about how I don't necessarily believe with Pittsburgh on

offense and what Dallas is doing. I think that was doing some decent things with the underlying metro on defense. I'm gonna pass on that game, Mike. You know I will pass on the Dolphins Cardinals. We always picked the same game, and only because we've the sample size with two is so short. I'm not willing to make a King David like pronouncement. Is Todd that about his effectiveness at this point. So I'm gonna pass on that kid. I didn't, Mike. All I said is let's not jump,

Let's not get excited. This is what I don't like when these talking heads anoint people after nothing, you know, so let's just relax. Maybe two is going to be freaking amazing, but he didn't show it last week. That's for god darn sure. And I think that's a sane, rational opinion, which you agree with me when I'm giving sane rational opinions in the South Point Sports book over and over to the dunderheads over there, and you know you agree with He's just winding you up, Todd. That's

what you don't shy Trump voter. That's the shy Trump voter that you don't get me started. Don't get me started with the shy Trump voter. Uh, that's the same game I picked. By the way, Miami Arizona. I could see this going if you told me again, if you told me after the fact now that Miami won this game by double digits, if you told me Arizona did, I would be equally unsurprised. Todd, Just so everyone knows,

I was not making a political statement earlier. I was just making a comment about the fact that me and Mikey were texting on election night and it looked and Trump went from like plus one eighty to all of a sudden like minus four hundred or something ridiculous. And I just said to Mike, Okay, maybe Trump won, Mikey, but I didn't see any news about Michigan or or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. So why is everyone immediately jumping to the conclusion that Trump already won. This is just for

betting purposes. I'm not talking about topical because I could go on and on for forever about political dodger speaking my language. Uh. Gil did a two hour show on this this morning. I did a one hour show on it. I did a I did a forty five minute thing on it election day, and then a PostScript autopsy on

it yesterday. But I was in uh. Andrew Gryfe, who rights for the l A Times, was kind enough to have me in a piece about the election, and I said I, and I said it yesterday to you guys via text too, Like Mayweather McGregor, I think we will look back on this election as one of the big betting anomalies of our lifetime because the pre flop numbers were what they were, and by the way, unless Biden turns Georgia, we're doing this Thursday morning, so we don't

know yet. Unless he turns Georgia, Arizona was minus one minus one fifteen, So let's throw that one out. The pre flop state by state numbers and the general election numbers, the state by state will have gone forty nine and oh favorites and the general election would then fall to Joe Biden. But my point was is that the live betting of the election was the most irrational market we

have ever seen. So for those of us who always believed in betting markets right, this was a anomaly for the ages where people who are supposedly sharp betters and the most shart betters in the world bet elections. They lost their minds. They lost their minds. It's like they bet their heart. And of course, pardon parcel with that is they had the muscle memory from sixteen that polluted their thinking. So they immediately thought to themselves, wait a minute, Uh,

here's what happened four years ago. Uh the poll said one thing. Florida turned. Oh my god, it's happening all over again. Completely different scenario in reality, because then it was rational because we only had the polls to to tell us otherwise. And Florida and all the Rust Belt states turned towards Trump all at the same time. This year, though, it's as if my buddy Joe Peter put it this way, because he agrees with me entirely. He said, it's as if people were lie, I'm betting a a sixty minute

football game. Um after the game. The game had already been played, but they were bet they were live betting it, and they were being given five minute chunks, and they were betting it one way. Had they rearranged those five minutes snippets, the entire betting experience would have been totally different. And it also no, no one's and so yesterday. But by the way, we have a mutual friend who who seems to think he knows everything about such things, and

he couldn't be more wrong, couldn't be more wrong anyways. No, but I just want to say that they didn't It was rational. Their craziness was rational because the polls were wrong last time and moved it safe from plus four to Trump barely winning. This time, the polls wrong again the same amount, but it wasn't enough. But no, it's irrational in the sense that all the pre flops went forty nine and oh and they knew those numbers. And

that's that's my point. It's like and by the way, Rex Buyers, who works at the West Game, he's still work there, and I don't know, I don't know. It may be different this week. I don't know. But you know he's he's done these elections offshore. He knows better than anybody. He says the same thing. I am the sharpest betters in the world. It's like they lost their minds. It is the It's the most fascinating thing I've ever seen.

But Gil, I do want to point out that, like I agree with you, right, Like, I think we should recognize how good the pre flop markets were, especially compared to all the models, um, which you know makes a model or like me, unhappy. But that's beside the point. The other thing that should be recognized about what happened with the craziness of those models is that Trump was up pretty big and and I don't know about big, but he was up in Wisconsin and Michigan and and

and and he's still up in Pennsylvania. Right. So, like you had that kind of bias data set where you were getting more of the voters that we're going to vote for him because they, you know, went to the polls on Pole Day, and you had this extra factor that a lot of the votes that we're going to be for Biden we're coming in mail being counted later in those states because you know, those states couldn't count

those votes. You're right it, but that that's what Joe was talking about when he talks about the five minutes snippets. And if you had rearranged them, Let's say the counties that hadn't been cast right had been cast earlier, or the mail ins if it was just in reverse order, the entire behavior would have shifted, and so for them not to know or to do any research into what counties had not yet been cast is completely mishukas well.

I I think there's a lot to that because the results of Florida were shocking, both in terms of what was projected by the polls beforehand, and that was also another state where the markets were right on that Trump should have been the favorite, and the margin was kind of shocking. But I also think like just not understanding that the mail and votes were going to come in later and that it was far from over in the

three keys Midwest states. I think that has to be at least a little bit of what happened late on Tuesday night, right. But it's still for me, still falls under the general category of people who are otherwise really smart betters not figuring that out. Is there's and maybe that's a Donald Trump effect, maybe you know, I don't know. Maybe that's just a historical anomaly that will not exist the next time. I don't know, but it's perspective. It

was incredible. The only thing it reminded me of the Colts Steelers playoff game back with Peyton Manning in two thousand and six Stealers were up about fourteen three or twenty one three, and um Paula Malu intercepted and jumped up and didn't get touched down. Do you remember that game? And then Big Ben Fumble gave the ball to Bettest to end the game at the two yard line, and he fumbled the ball, and then the Colts guy starts running the other way and Ben makes a miracle tackle

in the playoff game. You remember this? And then Vanderjack missed the field goal. It was that was the only thing I could even compare it to. Slightly. The Steelers were like minus eight hundred and then went to plus one seventy about ten minutes later in the most incredible, you know, turnaround game of all time. You don't remember that game? Deal, I don't know. I just don't understand.

I don't understand why of all games, that one is interesting because which money line It switched money lines so drastically it's such a short period of time. But again that's not that's not the point. I mean, tennis matches money line switched drastically all the time. The point is. The point is the difference between the pre flop and

the live betting. That is the most bizarre thing. This would This would be like a football team was up, was it was favored by a dollar eighty favorite, and they took the opening kick and went down and kicked the field goal, and all of a sudden the other team became minus four dollars. I mean, then nothing happened that wasn't expected to your point, except that the game, except that the Joe p It's like, but the Joe Peter.

The thing is, it's it's different than a sporting event, right, because this was like the sporting event had already been played. They ignored the pre flop number, they were fed information in a certain order. It's just like, it's unlike the sequencing what this was all about the sequencing of the count. And but it wasn't as if every network wasn't explaining the sequencing of the count and how all the later numbers would favor Biden exactly exactly. It's not like the

information wasn't there. That's what so bizarre. Anyway, what game do you want? No part of Todd? I don't know, Kansas City. Okay, there you go. Great stuff. Well this was fun. This was just great. Yeah, I'm sorry. Something had to be said about the most incredible election betting. I sure it did, but it had to be done in a politically critical kind of way. It's going to

be the craziest election thing wherever gonna see. And I will know because I will only point to the fact that at one point in the in March, you could have gotten Biden at like ten to twelve to one to become the Democratic nominee. Do you guys remember when he was dead like he was dead, yes, like he hadn't even he hadn't showed in the first three states, and this was before South Carolina voted. I don't disagree with I don't disagree with an arc over the course

of a campaign. I mean, I had Biden from earlier this year plus money, you know too, I don't disagree with that. We'll see that again. I just don't know that we'll see what happened on the day itself be so distanced from reality, I don't know. I feel like if anything is going to be so distanced from reality, it's going to be a political market. Well, okay, maybe, I mean maybe that's and that's I think the distinction

that sports bettors need to make. Sports bettors who who show fealty to betting markets as the king need to finally realize that this is not that you know, that's that's what's interesting about it. Yeah, yeah, but some of yet some of it was so good, right right, It's yeah, it's a it's a really interesting thing to pars out, especially as like I'm continuing, like reloading predicted to see what that market is saying about these last four states.

By the way, what is it as we as we sit here right now, Gil, Do you agree with me Gil though that the overreaction was a response to Miami Dade County or no, I don't know all I maybe maybe it was, Maybe it wasn't it was. Certainly it was certainly again I believe it's muscle memory from right. All of that was in the Ghoulash, as you would say, Todd, that there was like, oh, this is happening again. And I don't think people were I don't think people were

using their heads. I really don't. I agree with you, Todd, and that people extrapolated how well he did in Dade County with a largely Cuban vote to say, oh my god, the polls were all wrong again in every state in the Union. And by the way, the polls were wrong, but the problem was Biden was up too much. Ed you were going to say, well, I'm just saying, like the polls were pretty often Texas, UM, right, Like Trump ended up winning by eight points, where the polls that

he went by two. You know, like I think Biden was ahead in UM, North Carolina, you know, states like that too. So like I think, I mean, I think, I think there was enough wrong with the polls that, like, I understand why some veddors would think, oh, this happened in Florida, this happened in Miami Dade County. The polls were off as much as they were in two thousand sixteen.

I'm going to forget about the fact that the late coming votes are Biden in the Midwest, the states that had counted, and and go crazy, We're kind of saying Poles were off as much as well. We're all I mean, that's I'm not saying that I agree with that. I think just wrapping it up, I think that that's what makes this so interesting. The polls were way off, like r I P polls right, at least at least with

Trump elections. R I P. Poles Um, maybe it's a specific dynamic to him, the mischiu goss of the of the live betting market. The fact that we probably need to have a conversation no matter who wins this election ultimately, because we're here on Thursday morning on the doorstep, but we don't have an official winner yet. The fact that we need to have a conversation about the electoral college in this country. Right, you can't have three elections of six.

If if Trump were to win this, it would be the third election in six where the popular vote winner loses. We can't have that happen fifty percent of the time. I don't think people can disagree. Um, and political what's that That sounds like an awfully political statement. No, it's not, No, it's not. That's I believe that's a structure of the nation that's not political. And more and yeah, and the fourth thing is I think the interesting other thing is

some networks projected things quicker than others. Right, So Fox actually gave by Arizona like the AP did. CNN still hasn't. As we do this on Thursday morning, people could have been watching one and not the other, and it still hasn't given him. Ohio I mean, Anna is very reticent to declare anything. You know, Todd, it should be noted because you often bring up Iowa the poll that's right every one of these presidential elections. Yes, that's the best poll.

Every other poll had Iowa a pick or one way or the other. They had Trump eight. They were right, and they do this every other They're the most accurate poll in every election. I've heard a lot about the more and I couldn't agree with you more on that one. Ed. I'm sorry we got more than we bargained for here on today's show. I hope you didn't mind our election talk. I think I think what happened with the betting markets in the elections is one of the most fascinating things.

And if you bet on sports, how can you not be interested in that? Thank you right, thank you? Just why I brought it up. You'd be amazed at how many people who claim to be sports bettters take the position otherwise cracks me up, or sports networks they think they think sticking to sports is the way to go, and I just disagree with I think there's nothing, there's nothing more fascinating than what we just witnessed this year. I agree with that. If there was, they were betting

on simulations of Madden. Okay, when there was no sports, they were betting on simulations of a computer football game. Okay, now that are you kidding me? They're getting there. They're gonna they're gonna criticize because of politics they're betting on Madden. I do. I mean, I don't know who you're talking about specifically, but meaning sports betters are going to give you ship for for talking political betting when they when there was no sports, they were willing to bet on

a computerized football. So my yeah, my point is the sports bettors. I hang out with all of them. That's all we talked about. What's political betting? All year long? That's all we talked about, just because sociologically betting market wise, just fascinating sort of case study. Um, all right, more than something wanted bargain for. I hope you didn't mind our our foray into election talk. Fascinating to me, fascinating

ed that's all that we uh. When do I get to talk quantum physics with you and the illusionary nature illusory nature of reality? Who you want? Man? You know where to find me? Okay, I have to get your your your info from Gil because you sound like an interesting kind of I think we're I think we're connected on Twitter, so hit me up whenever. Alright. For Mike Palm, I had to explain it to Gil, but he doesn't

get it. It's over God. Here we go from Mike Palm for Todd wishnem and our and our guest, Ed. Thank you so much, man, appreciate the time. Hey, thanks so much for having me. Thank you so much. Ed Fang from the Power Rank and I buried the headline with Ed and the father of lovely kids, the oldest of which Eli is a said his name is that okay if I said his name? Oh yeah, that's fine, all right, burgeoning star, greatest looking kid, smartest kid you'll

ever find. So, Ed, you're doing well there. Congratulations to you and your wife. Thank you all for listening. Good luck with all your picks this week. Week nine in the NFL. Thanks so much,