Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview

go to this meeting here pretty soon. So we're going to get all of mike stuff out of the way. We're gonna break forbad a little today, uh, and then we'll do a round table with me, Todd Wishnev and our rotating guest today. You may know him as producing number five from a numbers game and he hosts his own podcast called The Parlay Podcast. Where'd he get that

name from? Jeff Parlay? How you doing, Jeff Gil, It's great, great to see everybody, Uh, and now actually knowing Todd, what what Todd's came and his mother's attic looks like I now actually have a better feel for the podcast today. I now actually familiar with all the surroundings that were, that that are that are in this podcast today. Jeff, please use the word cork when referring to the attic in which he does. Please. All right, mikey, uh. First of all, we have a we have a special This

is lady gentleman, Mike Palm. Now thirty six hours since the Grand Circle opening. Mike, here is your introduction from the other night. He's a genius of all things. He knows which one is hall and which one's hopes. He knows what they call the coo cools and not just cool. He knows who started the fire, because we didn't start the fire. And if we didn't start the fire, who did? Was it lightening? He knows, ladies and gentleman the poll reader vice president out of a cloud of smoke, arms

raised Mike Palm, everybody. He knows which one is hall and which one is oats. Introduced by the Great George Shay from the Hot Dog Eating Concepts. They're on Coney Island. How you know what, mikey wonderful, busy, busy. There's not enough hours in the day. Gil, I'm sorry, wasn't everything you imagine it to be yes and more and you still you still look like you're a little tired from it.

I'm exhausted, exhaust I mean there's you wake up, you get two hours sleep, and there's thirty seven emails and eighteen texts and likes, and then you gotta slum with us and do this little picture megapod. Oh, it's nice. It's nice to see Jeff again. And you know, I

had I was out on the pool deck yesterday. It was really the first day of stadium swim and I was sitting with a gentleman who was really enjoying the soccer games and and the atmosphere, and the people kept coming up and we hear you on visa and we listened to you on the megapod, and the number one question was, well, i'll phrase it, I can't your certain words. But the number one question was tell us about Todd? Is Todd really being Todd when he's on the air,

And I said, he really is. I mean, that's his genuine self. There's no airs, there's no put on, you know. And there was a lot of positive comments about Todd, and and then there was something that weren't as as positive. But you know, I thought well, one guy said he's an exhausting listen. I said, well, you know, he's even more exhausting is a friend. But but still he's there. He's Mikeycorn for yourself. There is thank you, Todd. Than Chris Felika was on the Number Be the Big One,

the Big Popcorn Todd. Chris Fliga was on the Numbers game this morning, and then he got the long segment on the Numbers Game. We hadn't had him on the long side of for a long time. The reserved for Paul Carr just because, so FeliCa said, I said, it was nice to talk to you on the long side, and he goes, yeah, thanks for you know, putting me ahead of prioritizing me, ahead of wishing it. Finally, so he's he's He threw a shout out to Todd as well.

Todd your thoughts, I have listened. When you have as much talent as I do, you're gonna have people sling bows and arrows at you. It happens. You have to be okay with your talent and understand that other people are gonna get jealous. It's the same thing as when I was three hundred and thirty pounds and I would walk into a bar and there'll be a hot girl and her boyfriend standing there, and I would walk over and we would joke around and laugh. Everybody loves me.

It's fantastic. Then I would get to be two hundred pounds, do the exact same thing, and all of a sudden, the dude gets very intimidated because there's a good looking guy standing near his girl. Same story with Mikey Palm. He feels a little threatened by my talent. And it's okay. We just had tipped to him all good. Mike just noted. He's like, yeah, okay, maybe very accurate, very accurate, very accurate. It's like white women have so many gay friends. You know,

they're non threatening. It's non threatened. Todd at three thirty was non threatening. You know. People love to have him around. All right. So, uh, because Mike, he's on a schedule, so we hold let's let's let's hold on for the hijinks. Um okay. Survivor from three fifty three to three fifty I believe I think that at two of them were because they didn't put it in the entry. Again, again, how's this, How's it possible? It was almost like a perfect week. But there was nobody, no big upsets that

nobody agains one person. One person had the Patriots, that's it. Everybody else through. There's somebody I knew that's in the circuit million two that didn't get their five picks in as well. Somebody that I know that was contending. Um, he was contending for quarterly and the second quarter didn't get his five picks. I mean he was like a point and a half out in the second quarter. Brutal.

Is there any contest that have ever gone down to the wire and survivor with like hundreds of people still alive? Could happen this year? Could happen. But Thanksgiving, thanks you're saving grace. I never asked you directly, like do you guys look back at that and thank God we have this sink Thanksgiving rule. Well, a lot of people are not do not like it. But I think made the contest. Made the contest because you can plan until then, you

can plan after. But that's a prayer that day. Um, Okay, by the way, circa everything that it was supposed to be, it was awesome. Everybody had a great time. I hope you didn't mind that a lot of us had, you know, regular ties on. It's not a little sore about it, aren't you. I'm upset I never got to see Debra. Yeah, I know. I was upset because I want I were there any pictures? Did you take any pictures? We took? No, not there. We took a couple at home. Yeah. Yeah,

that's the only thing. No. Everybody looked nice. What a good call to go black tie because when you dress well, you feel well. I already got everyone in a good mood being and in black tie and tuxedos and gowns and dressed up, and the women had their hair done and their makeup and all that. So that's my motto, Mikey, if I dress well, I feel well. That's definitely my motto. How come you never dress well? Because I don't agree with that statement. I'm not Martin Vance, Martin Vance Todd's

personal Twitter fashion coach. Uh and Derek was great, great speech, He was all inclusive. Um, it was like a business plan. It was perfect. It was one recent host text to me or it's long enough, can you tell Derek, let's get it. I said, very grateful, You're very grateful, welcome for everything. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. Hi, Mikey, without further ado, your three best bets one, two, and three, and a brief explanation as to why these are your bets. Okay,

I like, I'm gonna keep going with these overs. I think the over trends continue. Here's two teams that have bad defenses, the Titans and Bengals. I know it's a high number, fifty three and a half, but I like going over it again. I mean, I think you've seen how bad that Bengals defense is exposed the last couple of weeks against the Browns and then against the Colts when they couldn't hold a gift twenty one point lead. And I'm not I'm not convinced of this Tennessee Titans defense.

I think that that that you know, they've they've done well with Tannehill, they've got the most out of them, but they can't get stops either. So I'm gonna go over there my second play. As I'm gonna say this, it's the number. What's the number in that one? Mikey? Well, I have fifty three and a half and a half, all right there? My second Okay, Todd, I have I've have had two minutes left. I have the Seahawks minus three. I think they bound. They bounced back at home against

the fourth like, look at that's a tough loss. They controlled that whole game. They should have won it. And over it. I mean it was you know, Carol Bozo the Carroll uh, you know, finally reared his ugly head there. I mean, he's gotten away with a lot of stuff here. I still think this this offense is very explosive, and I don't think the forty Niners are gonna beat will

slow them down. I think Seattle is going to get out to a quick start in this game now that they let Russell Wilson throw a forward pass in the first half this year. And so I'll lay there is a field goal time. I have it as a field goal reduced juice field goal. And then I this is probably maybe not my third best play, but I was just looking. I really like the Ravens over the Steelers

this week. This this Steelers defense. I know the rematches on Thanksgiving, uh, but I think this Ravens tea And you know, there's a handful of teams that have a good defense, and they're one of them. Um the Bears are another one. Anyhow, what are we giving him on that number? Is it three and a half or four? It's three and a half or four. Yeah, it's close. That's very that's very general. It's very very generous of you guys to do that. Um yeah, So I like

the Ravens big this week. I think they crushed the Steelers. You know, this is a hatred hating game, the rivalry and all this uh off to buy. I just think that they're there'll be rested. Steelers had a tough game in Tennessee that could have went the other way as well. Um So, all those are my three picks. I'll have comments on that one later because I think I'll be picking that, but perhaps Todd's running it. Teaser Yeah, teaser packers is my packers is the first part of my

teaser packers down to one? That okay with everybody? Can everybody? Can everybody agree on that number? Uh one? Green Bay and I haven't even boo uh Jesus is a tough one, just making it. How about how about Dolphins plus nine and a half? How about girls team the Miami Dolphins to Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. I wasn't ready for my song. But I'll tell you, but I will tell you. I think they can hang with the golf ster. Who's you don't have any Thursday night thoughts? Do you tonight? No?

My Thursday night thoughts are Let's see what stadium swim in the sports book looks like for our first NFL game. I'm I like the Eagle. You know I always fade the Cowboys. There's no number on this game. We don't know who's who's playing quarterback, but I'll probably lay the points with the Eagles when the number comes out. Uh, and the game I want nothing to do with. Uh? What was the Eagles one? What category did that fall under? Well?

I would that would be a play if we had a number on it, but it's off the board everywhere. I have nine. I have nine all over the place. Yeah, okay, nine, I'd late nine. I'd lake ten. Dallas just a random bonus as a thought, one of my fading Dallas. Do you like the those hot Todd? I love the Eagles, BABYCC. Vinny Malula is starting a quarterback for Dallas. Yeah, Mayula Colts Lions. I don't want anything to do with good game. Could be a good game and favorite most likely lose outright?

Favorite most likely to lose outright is none of them? Uh? What is it's? It's only the Packers of the Chiefs. Are the Bucks? Uh right? Or the Eagles? But no, they're not losing. Okay, I'll say the Bucks. No not really? Uh what else do I have left here? Green Bay? Is it like that? But I like Green you like? I'll say the Road I'll say the road team the Bucks there, alright? Or Tampa Bayampa, Tampa Bay could lo

they could lose, they could lose. What your official pick is they Tampa Bay is the tam most likely to lose. Thank you everybody. Sorry to everybody, we didn't get to Bay alright, buddy continued success. Say hi to Sean Kavanaugh for me. Take care everyone, Thank you for your use your studio here. Thank you, sir, Mike, paulm everybody. Uh, he's got a thing. He's a very busy man. They just opened a brand new casino for God's sake, So let's give my pass on that. So it's just the

three of us, gentlemen. Um Todd is the I want the update on on everybody? Please start, yes, please? Okay, So last week. The Gilly Ice Man did a great job with a nice two and one to move himself to nine eleven and one and teasers win again. Six and one for Gil, Mikey moved to two and one, two and one again, he moved to twelve eight and one. Very solid by Mikey, and he's won his teaser. He's

also six and one on teasers. And I also had a two and one week to move to nine and twelve and my teaser one as well, so I'm also six and one. So all three of us are six and one on teasers, which is quite interesting. Why did I see that one of us? Someone someone on Twitter logs our picks and he called yours five one and one. Did he give you a push on the teaser or something? I don't I don't know what why he did that, because easily there were all six of one. All right, um,

all right. By the way, Jeff Parlay, the name of the podcast is the Parlay Podcast. How's that going for you? Going going pretty well? Gil, all things considered? And uh, obviously we're with a book at sports Are app is coming on Sunday, so that that will be a lot of fun. But the podcast is going well, and uh, and I'll say this, and I wish Mike was here for this. I missed the hell out of you, Gil.

I missed the hell out of Mike. It was great to see Todd a few weeks ago when Todd destroyed me in tennis, which was probably the least surprising result of the last six months for anything that has happened with any of us, I'll give I'll give u the former big man, some credit on that one there, Todd, Todd, were you down to wait? Wise, I've been. I've been around two forty six for the last three weeks because

I haven't played tennis once. Because right after I whooped up on Mr Parl's six oh six oh six wine, I knew that was kind. I got one game, Come on, you gave it to me at the end. I got the first I got legitimately the first game we played, six O six or whatever. The bottom line is, he got crushed. And after he got crushed, a couple of days later, I got a real bad hamstring injury. So I haven't been able to play. But I'm still hanging

in at around two nice. I'm hanging in right where I was too, but starting to eat a little more. I'm a little worried I might be going to the other direction. Um, all right, parlay you now or either of you ever coming back to Las Vegas. Yes, I will be back. I will be back before the end of the year. I will be back before the end of the year. Um My, my girlfriend Margaret, who both of you know, has a has a physical therapy clinical

that starts in the new year in Las Vegas. So we will definitely be there at the year's end to the beginning of next year for sure. God, I mean I I don't know exactly. I don'n't really have any plans right now exactly what's going to happen. I will

tell you this. I am enjoying the hell out to be able to do things like betting team totals in game betting all kinds of incredible offerings that they have at FanDuel and draft Kings and this one and that one and the other one, and uh, it's just gonna feel like when I if I come back to Vegas, like I'm going back in time. I just totally get it, man, I totally get me. For people who are just in Vegas all the time and they don't understand the offerings

that are out there. It's just unbelievable. Yeah, it's uh, it's primitive here, it's primitive, and they don't view it as as competition because they think they're their own ecosystem. But once one of those operators, let's say it's a Draft Kings or whoever shows up. Obviously Circuit does the best job out here by far. But if you if if one of those operators comes in here, I mean, everybody's gonna have to be forced to innovate. It's like, why do I get ahead of that? It's very strange,

very strange how the VET operates. And also why not have all the offerings for people? I mean, people love to bet when there's things to bet on, yeah, you know, I mean it's like, yeah, it's it just doesn't make any sense. It's like, you know, they could buy the same service the DraftKings is buying. Right. I don't have an explanation. I really don't. I really there's no good

explanation for it. Um. But again, shout out to Matt metcalf in the whole crew at Circle for doing their best to innovate and really running a sports book the way it's supposed to be run. Um, but it's just it's a strange ecosystem, man, for sure, let's do it, Ben MGM. I've never been on bet mgm s app.

Do they have any like different offerings? And they do, but you know, Ben MGM and Ben MGM would even admit this New Jersey is not always the same as Nevada, so sometimes their new Jersey offerings are different or better than Nevada. But I will say this, I will give Ben MGM a lot of credit. They sponsor a numbers game too, so let me just be full disclosure here. Uh and DraftKings does sponsor Primetime Action, so I'm not just mentioning them because of that. But Ben MGM did

a great job through baseball season. I thought here in Nevada keeping up like Awards pro when no one else did. So they surprise you a lot. They're like, oh wow, you can still bet Corey Seeger, you know, throughout the sixty game season. Um. By the way, Corey Seeger completely trolling me with my m v P picks at thirty to one when he got the m v P in both the nlcs of the World Series. But it's it's there's they will surprise you a bet MGM in Nevada.

But sometimes Ben MGM New Jersey will have some great things and we don't have it here, So you know, I don't know. It's very it's all very strange still here. Just uh, you know, one and a half years after the overturning of Pasma. Let's do our picks, boys, because I got stuff to say about Survivor and teasers and all that. Well, let's start with our best bets. We'll do one to three here, parlay as all as we start with the guests, what is your number one best

bet sider total in weekate? Sir? Number one is one that Mike picked and I agreed with him on that. The Seattle Seahawks lane three against the San Francisco forty Niners. Uh, it feels too good in all honesty, it feels like a little bit of an overreaction to what we saw last week. The Niners beat the but Jesus of a New England team that just, let's face it, the Patriots stink. That was just the Niners enforced their will on a bad team and and one easily the Seahawks. They controlled

that game. Russell Wilson threw three really bad interceptions that we normally don't see him even make one play like that in the game, and he made three horrible plays and they still lost on a field goal in the last minute of overtime and one by the way, Arizona needed a ten point come back in the last five minutes of regulation even get toot So Seattle to me laying only a field goal at home against the Niner team that is still banged up, and a Niner team

that I'm still not convinced is all that good this year because of those injuries. Out of lay to three very happily with Seattle. Those are three of the worst passes of Russell Wilson's career. That was You're like, oh, wow, he's a human being after all, Todd, your number one, my number one pick is going to be. Let me just decide here. I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go with the Eagles. Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Eagles.

Eagle minus nine. Uh. You know, the Cowboys can't cover a game, and I'm always you know, nervous betting in the NFL against a team that's never covered. And sooner or later they will. I'm sure cover a game, but Ben de Nucci, Ben de Nucci, are you serious? This team is incredible. They couldn't protect Andy Dalton. Now they're gonna protect Ben de Nucci. I mean, gives me a break. I'm the Eagles. I'm not saying the Eagles are a

great team by any means, but they're mediocre. But they should be able to slap the hell out of Ben de Nucci, I would think, especially at home. I mean, it's ridiculous, and it's not like their defense is any good, So you know, why not late the nine? Give me Dallas minus nine. You know, I know it's obvious, I mean, Eagles minus nine. I know it's obvious, but uh, I mean I think it's just bend Nucci. Come on, they gotta be kidding. Andy Dalton remains in concussion protocol. So

as we do this Thursday morning, it is Ben Denucci. Uh. Here's a trivia question. By the way, Free boys ready for this, who leads among NFC East quarterbacks who leads the division in yards passing this year? Let me guess Kyle Allen Jeffrey. My guests would probably be uh, well, no, it would be Dak Prescott probably right. Dak Prescott still

leads the NFC East in yards passing. Yeah, there there just gives you a sense of a division that the Eagles lead to four and one, Cowboys and Washington Football Teamers are two and five and their Giants bringing up the rear one and six. By the way, there is a prop over a DraftKings and we've talked about this for a couple of weeks. Now, what will the eventual NFC East winner have total wins? And it's at seven and a half. And last week the under was at

plus one thirty seven. I was like, go under. This week the under is at plus one oh five. Not quite as much bang for your buck, but still plus money. I would still take the under, wouldn't you. I would take under seven because the worst you're gonna happen is a push. They're not getting eight because you got all those teams, Eagles, Washington Football Teamers, and Cowboys all would have to go six and three down the stretch. Giants would have to go seven and two. I mean, the

only scenario schedules. I haven't looked at the schedules, but I can't sdules are difficult to begin with anyway. I that's under seven and a half plus money. It feels like a really good bet. They can. They get to beat up on each other, they get they get a lot of inherent winds right within the division, so they do get some wins because they get to play each other.

So there's that, but still six and three. The only scenario I can see, and I was saying this this morning, is let's say somehow the Cowboys upset the Eagles this week. Just play along with me, because you know, the Eagles barely beat the Giants to some say, some would argue shouldn't have. Let's say that Cowboys somehow win and then before the trade deadline they pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's the only way I can see it happening. But it's

currently constituted. That's an under no doubt to me, I love it under I agree. The other point I was making was I did a little research on this. So if you win the NFC East, you get a home playoff, a which is comical to begin with. You also can only pick at best nineteen in the draft, no better than nineteen, and if you don't win the NFC East, you're gonna have a top ten pick. Most likely. Why would you want to win this division? That's a huge

gap between ten and nineteen. That's awful anyway, random NFC's thoughts. My number one pick is that I'm gonna debate between my three which I like the best. Uh. What I did guessing lines on Monday. We didn't have Chrissy this week because Chrissie tested positive. For those who missed it, Chris Andrews tested positive for the coronavirus. The last guy we want to test positive for corona. By the way,

he is doing better. He said, I still has coughing, fits, still has some other sort of intestinal stuff going on, but he says he's feeling better. We hope to hap him next week. So when we did a bastardized version of guessing lines on Monday, this was the line. The Pittsburgh Baltimore line was the line that I could not understand. Five and a half. I was like, it's three and a half at worst. Where do they get five and

a half from? I thought three. I still like Pittsburgh at three and a half, even at four, and obviously even at four, which we're seeing it's sort of toggling between those two. But let's say it's three and a half. I like the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I will concede this. It is always favorable in any sport, but certainly in the NFL to take a lead early. I don't think there's ever been a matchup where having the lead early will mean more. Baltimore is the quintessential come from a

head team. They're a great front running team. They're a terrible come from behind team. They're not constituted with Lamar Jackson to come from behind. Conversely, Pittsburgh could not have been more dominant against Tennessee last week. First quarter and change when they were up fourteen to nothing. It was one and sixty total yards to one, and they were dominating the clock. I think the one three and out

that Tennessee had only had a minute twenty one. So it was this unbelievable dominance at the beginning of the game for Pittsburgh. That was why they held on to win that game against Tennessee because Big Ben had some mistakes at the end of the first half of the end of the game. So for me, this game will be very interesting to see who who starts out on top, because that might dictate the rest of the football game. In fact, I would imagine it would. So Pittsburgh is

the pick plus three and a half. I think if they get ahead early, they cover that. If they fall behind, you might know very early that it's a bad pick. But I'll take Pittsburgh plus the three and a half. You're giving me three and a half as the only undefeated team in the NFL. I will take that three and a half, knowing Baltimore's weakness if they fall behind. So that's my number one pick. Number two, Jeffrey, I'm

gonna go to tonight. I I know going on Thursday night games is usually not a popular move, but Carolina laying only now it's a consensus one and a half. Now with Carolina laying that against the Falcons, I'll think the Panthers very happily laying only one and a half. Caroline is going to score thirty points in this game, and the Falcons at this point, even if they have a lead in the fourth quarter, there's about a sevent a chance they're gonna blow it anyway. So I like Carolina.

They're the better football team. The only concern is that deep defense stage, but you don't want I trust Teddy Bridgewater. I think d J. Moore and Robby Anderson both have huge games against that bad secondary. So I'll take Carolina

minus one and a half very happily tonight. Teddy Bridgewater on Sunday against the Saints, it was twenty seven to twenty four, which was the eventual final score, but it's four Bridgewater, who was twenty three of twenty eight on the game for two fifty two touchdowns, no pick in

a sack. He had a third and eleven. The Panthers had third and eleven at the Saints thirty nine down and the play before the two minute warning on third and eleven, he takes an eight yard sack and that was the That was the game right there, because coming back from the two minute warning break, they attempt a sixty five yard field will attempt from Joey Sly that probably goes sixty three and a half yards and so as long as he learns not to take that sack,

uh sky's the limit for Teddy Bridgewater. By the way, we did, we didn't do the Thursday night segment because we're all out of We're all fora cocta on the format today. But the only thing that I'm doing tonight I'm doing a Falcon's over tease. I already put that bed in tease me through the three of the seven. Give me the over Falcons over tease, Todd number two. My number two pick is going to be this Chicago Bears the Bears. I'm gonna go with the Bears. Uh.

You know I was down on the Bears earlier. I kept saying they were a joke. Um. I sort of had a chance to take advantage of that by betting the Rams at halftime, and then, like an idiot, I got off of it. But I I didn't like the Bears. But in this spot, I'm gonna take the Bears because I'm getting four and a half points. And here's the thing. I don't think New Orleans is that good, and I certainly don't think they're that good outside on grass there. New Orleans to me, has always been a turf team.

You put Drew Brees on grass and things seem to not go as well for that team historically. Uh, you know, the Bears have a real nice defense. It's not like the Saints are stopping anybody. Carolina scored a million on him last week. Everybody who played the Saints this year scored a lot of points. If the Saints are going to give up points, it's gonna be hard to win by four and a half. And as well as on on top of that, I don't know that the Saints are gonna go gangbusters on the road in the cold

in Chicago. You know, four and a half is a lot in an NFL game, especially against the team that has a nice defense. Give me the Bears. The Bears plus four and a half. I can't say I expected that one, but the Bears plus four and a half. By the way, just looking up at the screens, the weekly COVID report, and this has everything to do with people who are in contests, uh, people who are in survivor especially who have to be really aware of of COVID outbreaks and if it might postpone a game because

of all the contest rules. Uh. The Chargers had one positive COVID test this morning, and apparently the Giants have multiple on their team in the front office, so just keep that in mind. UM. Giants scheduled to play the Bucks on Monday night. The Charger schedule to play Denver in an afternoon game. UH, this coming Sunday, Week number eight, my number two pick is call me crazy. I'll leave some room for you guys. Call me crazy. I'm taking the New England Patriots plus three and a half against

the Buffalo Bills. And I know the Patriots look like ass. They just look terrible. Um. I shouldn't really diminish very nice looking asses perhaps, but New England plus three and a half to me, Buffalo is the most one dimensional team in football, and offensively, uh Josh Allen tucking the ball under and running is by far their best play on offense. And what have we talked about with Bill Belichick through the years. The one thing that he is

great at is taking away the offense is strength. You're gonna beat me, beat me with other options, not with your best. And I know New England's stats last week, worst start since two thousand now currently first three game losing streaks since two thousand two. Belichick with his worst home loss last week as a Patriot's head coach by twenty seven points to the Niners. Out gained by two two yards in the first half by the Niners. It's

the worst first half differential under Belichick ever. But I like him against this Bill's offense, which could not get into the end zone against your New York Jets. Jeffrey couldn't get in there. I had Buffalo and survivor one

of the men who had Buffalo and survivor. And I will say this, on the one hand, it was the least sweat filled one score survivor win ever, survivor advancement ever, because the Jets got four yards of offense four total yards of offense in the second half against the Bills, so it really felt like even though one flukey play could have beaten the Bills, it was never in doubt. On the other hand, did say more about the Jets or did say more about the Bills, I'm not really

quite sure. I like the Patriots, and this game is everything for New England. They lose this, their season is done. Zo. It's that dire. I'll take the three and a half New England. My second dog of the day is Yeah, no issue with that pick at all. I'm with Todd. I kind of like the spot for the Patriots the h and also to It's Bell, We've never seen a Belichick team in this scenario where their season is on the line this early in the year. So I'm getting

three and a half against a Buffalo team. Then again, like you said, one dimensional with Alan just really using his feed more than his arm. I have no problem with that, and as I give that pick right up on the screen as if on cue. Julian Edelman will not play this weekend for the Patriots with his knee injury in case there was any doubt about his data, So he is, he is out. But I am taking the Patriots plus three and a half is my number

two pick, Jeff number three. I I can't believe I'm doing this on on in public in anything, guys, but my number three pick is the Kansas City Chiefs minus nineteen and a half against my Jets, because because here's the deal. How the Jets scoring more than a touchdown in this game, and that's how they have four yards

of offense like you said against the Bills defense. That let's face, the Bill's defense has not been good this year, and the Jets moved the ball for four American football yards in the second half, which should be impossible at the NFL level regardless of how awful you are. And Kansas City keeping this in mind with Kansas City, the Chief's offense last week didn't do a lot against Denver. They scored on a short field at the end with his backups, a pick six and a kick return, So

they're coming off a not great offensive performance. A week before they ran all over Buffalo, so Mahomes has not had a mahomesy and performance in a while. This feels like Kansas City's up twenty eight nothing immediately, and the only way I'm sweating is if Chad hand He plays the whole second half and scores the Jets a touchdown with a pick six. So I'm I'm doing it. I'm laying in the nineteen and a half with Kansas City. I don't think it's enough. I thought it should have

been twenty three, Gill, I really did. I thought there should have been twenty three with Kansas City. So nineteen and a half, I'm getting four and a half better. At four and a half points better than I thought. I'll lay it. I would have guessed twenty one on guessing lines. That would have been my guest twenty one. But it's nine score Kansas City Chiefs twenty six Jet at seven Ye right now totally and Chad Headie throws

his pick six with three and a half minutes left. Um, remember last year, similar scenario, Week three Jets lane excuse me, Patriots lane twenty and a half against the Jets in Week three and the Jets did not have an offensive touchdown but covered because they were covered a fumble on a punt in the end zone for a touchdown and

Jack that resolutely remind me of that game. I had Jets under team total ten and a half in that game the Patriots mus twenty and a half and that one and it's thart speaking of speaking of props, that there is an O N sixteen prop out there. There's a sixteen and oh but the no is like ridiculously cartoonish, uh cartoonishly used Pittsburgh's not going sixteen. But there's an O N sixteen one that has existed now for a

few weeks. And it existed when the Giants and Falcons were both winless as well, and it was for the Jets specifically, or was it all three? I can't remember. I think it was a Jet specifically at that time, because there was one with all three and I said, well, the Falcons are gonna win a couple of games, at least a few games, And the Giants were favored that

week against Washington. They ended up winning, so it really did come down to the Jets, and you could have gotten them at north of plus seven hundred to go o N sixteen, And I was like, you gotta play that. It's a great you know, it would be a fun bet. Not mathematically great, but it's a fun bet for people having if you look at their schedule. It was the second Miami game where you're like, well, if that would be Twah's first game, maybe you could see the Jets

winning that game. Uh, now it's plus two thirty five. I believe on the Jets going oh in sixteen, which mathematically is a horrible number. However, uh, trying not to be too close to the sun and realize that people just like fun bets sometimes. If you look at the Jet schedule, they gotta lose nine more games, um, nine more games or ten more games? What are they? Seven? Yeah?

And seven nine more games? And you look at the schedule like, where's the loss And the only thing we could come up with was if you bet the plus money on the no, which again mathematically is not great, but it's still a fun bet. Week seventeen might be the problem because if New England doesn't have anything to play for. In Week seventeen, maybe they play without any care motivation and the Jets sneak in a win after being oh in fifteen to kill those bets. But other

than that, do you see a loss? Would the manual nine team parlay make you even more money if you just bet against the Jets every week on the money? What I'm saying, mathematically, I've said it several times. Mathematically it's terrible bet right plus two thirty five should be way better than that. But some people are like, I don't care. You know, we as we immerse ourselves in gambling, we have to realize there's a lot of audience out there. It's just like, I just want fun bets. I just

don't see lost. Besides that one Daryl and all honesty, where the wind may come from for him? Uh? The Bear and I were tweeting back at this a few weeks ago, when it was apparent that this could very easily happen. Week sixteen, the Jets host Cleveland. I could very much see a scenario where the Browns need a win to stay in the playoffs and the Jets win that game just because of course you'll have and also

to make matters worse on that. I wouldn't be shocked Gil if Jacksonville at this point goes one in fifteen and they're gonna have an easier schedule than the Jets. So in order for the Jets to get the number one pick and get the rights to Trevor Lawrence, in all likelihood, they gotta go lose out at this point,

I really do think that, Gil. So there's a lot on the line for the Jets going oh in sixteen, including those bets, which look again, I don't unless of Vegas really lays an egg on an east coast trip in the first week of December. Ah, that week seventeen thing. But Belichick will have this guys ready to play against the Jets, you know how he hates them. So I don't know. I don't see a win on this schedule at this point. I really don't Where are we, guys,

in terms of where we are the rotation. Jeff did a third pick third, Jeff. Jeff gave three, Mikey gave three me, and you gave to Gil. Okay, so you want me to give my third, yes, sir. First of all, I want to just say before you give my third What the hell did Mikey talking about? Is Todd really like that? What do you mean informative and entertaining? Yeah, Todd's exactly like that. Informative and entertaining. What the hell are they talking about? I don't know. I don't know.

You know, I love you, Toddy. You know what. I'm tired of people. I really am tired of people. Tired of people. People. Didn't you want to say on on one of your first Numbers Game appearances, didn't you? I said? People suck? And I think you responded with people one of the worst inventions ever. Terrible inventions. Terrible Anyways, Uh,

my third pick I am going to go. I'm really torn between taking Carolina along with Jeffrey, but since Jeffrey took Carolina, I'm gonna do the other pick that I like, which is the Detroit Motown Lions. Give me the Lions

under the Radar. They won for me last week and that heartbreaking, crazy like heart attack game with the ridiculous Todd Gurley nonsense when I had the plus four at halftime and then I had to watch them score when they shouldn't score and get the two point conversion to break my heart, and then come down and get the great catch at the eight r line, and then Matt Stafford on the last play playing Matthew Ice. Baby. That's Matthew Ice, not Maddie Ice, the real Matthew Ice Baby

Ice Man. Anyways, Lions I think are a little bit better than people realize. Had they beaten the Bears that game earlier in the year, they would have a respectable record. I think the Lions are really not that bad a football team. I think they're pretty decent. And you now have Philly Rivers going on the road. We've all seen Philly Rivers before the Philly Rivers show, right, don't you

know what this game could look like late? You know, Philip Rivers driving down and do does something stupid, and you know, you go, nice job betting against phil Rivers. Give me Detroit lines. I know Indiapolis is good, but are they Are they really good enough to be laying two and a half minus twenty five? Why the way? What line do you have? The real line is really three for me if you look at the juice. Uh yeah, but it's two and a half extra juice. Okay, fine,

So I'll just say I don't even care. I don't even need the three. Give me the two and a half with the Detroit lines. I'd much rather have the three. And if I was playing this for real, I would play play it with the three because you got all that juice there. But um, you know, give me the Detrod. I don't think the culture that good. They should be going on the road, you know, to beat the decent team. The lines are really not that bad. Why were they? Why were the Why were the cults so obsessed with

getting Philip was? I know you refused to call him Philip, You going Philip Philly, but like they didn't. They didn't even look for anybody Else's like Philip Rivers, that's our guy. It's like every sports better was like, why why are you doing this? Why are you doing it? Could be because he won a lot of games against the Colts

in his career. I remember a bunch of games. I don't know if you remember this, but when Peyton Manning was with the Colts, they the Chargers played them a number of times as big dogs and played them very tough. Maybe that was it. I don't know, because I don't see it. I think he's he's I mean, pass this time years ago. Let's let's go back to that thing

you were talking about with Todd Gurley again. I'm sure everybody is well aware Todd Gurley with the with the Falcons up and there by the way, NFL Films has the audio of of Matt Ryan in the huddle saying just remember first down and go down, first down and go down, and uh he said, don't score, Yeah, don't score. And Todd Gurley was right next to him. I don't

know if he heard it. I don't even acknowledge that he remembered to split second too late, right, just like Devin Ford of Penn State the day before it did against Indiana to put Penn State up twenty to twenty, and of course Indiana matriculated down the field, got the two point conversion, forced overtime, and wanted on a ridiculously

short two point conversion. Uh. The next day Todd Gurley does the same thing in Detroit, goes right downfield, Matt Stafford hits t. J. Hockenson at the buzzer, if you will, and then they then they convert a forty eight yard

extra point after a penalty to beat the Falcons. But what I was getting at there was the biggest single thing I think you can talk about with NFL betting is and I use the word plinko again, attribute to the old prices right game to define a percentage of these NFL games, and Todd you are very good at pointing out it is a percentage. There is a percentage of games that you're not right. If you win, you're not wrong if you lose. And last week alone it

was what Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Detroit, What am I forgetting? Uh? Seattle? Who did Seattle play again? Seattle? And the areas, And there was a fourth game to which I'm which I'm losing. Off the top of my head, I'll check it right now. But those games were complete plinko. You were not right. If you wanted, you were not wrong if you didn't. I had it, and I had a few of those games. Um, I would even consider oh, New Orleans, Carolina being the

fourth of those right. But then there is inevitably a percentage of games where it is not plinko right. If you had Washington last week, if you had San Francisco last week, those were clearly not that. So the extent to which, yeah, the extent to which we can figure out what those games are the better we will be as football betters. Now, of course that's easier said than done, right, but that's why. So that's why this is such a hard sport, because there is inevitably a huge percentage of

games where it's just dude. You know people in contests who like go on these runs of like twenty three and two, they're getting the best to all of those. They're not avoiding all the plinko games, but they're getting them all to break their way. So index, you've got a very high PA. That's exactly what I felt. In college football, you have a lower plank Oization index. Therefore there's going to be more right sides in the NFL because everything is so tight. You've got a very low

plank Oization index. You've got to be very careful. But um I I just want to know if you guys. I saw the replay of that where they had the Matt Ryan telling him to go down, and then they showed the play again and I noticed one of the guys knew not to tackle him. The other guy it looks like he he like really did sort of try to tackle him, and then and then Girlie like sluffed him off. And then you know, did the brain fart? But what was that Lions guy doing trying to tackle him?

Or maybe Todd he was trying to pay him in the think he was tackling. You mean it was pure genius, Todd, go GALLAXI oka weak galaxy brain there, Todd Plaza index the pc I if drink, if you give me the drink, then it must be your drink in front of you is the one that I drink. But if you put the drink the other thing. But really, maybe you thought I thought that that's why you put the drink in

the other drink. That is an excellent That is an excellent portrayal of the great scene from The Princess Bride. And then he croaks, Yeah, I didn't do it well at all. It's there. Oh, it's the greatest incompatable. I do not think you're using that word correctly. Uh. My last one is again it's another stinker. It's a third dog. I am taking the Denver broncos it's really uh, it's really just to play against the Chargers. Being a three point favorite here. Um Denver was terrible against the Chiefs.

As we pointed out, Chiefs didn't even have to really exert themselves at all. They had a kickoff return excuse me that to pick six, they had a kickoff return for a touchdown. Yeah, two Denver turnovers led directly to scores, so they didn't have to break a sweat and beat in Denver. And by the way, I've said this before,

no one loves Drew Lock more than Drew Lock. And when you know, when when Kansas City is up seven and nothing and they turned the ball over deep in their own territory and you're able to run in from a few yards out and make the score or seven to six before you miss an extra point, probably stop with the dancing right like, probably not the best move Drew Luck. All that said, he has a lock to

be in it is. All that said. I'll take Denver plus three because I just don't trust the Chargers in any way, and I think they will Anthony Lynn their way to defeat in this game. In a week of the NFL, I mean, the biggest theme in in week we probably buried the headline. There's gonna be a lot of weather around the country, a lot of inclement weather. You've got to make sure that it's wind though. You gotta make sure it's the type of of inclement weather

that matters. So you see a lot of these totals crashing and multiple games this week, and be aware of the fact that with them going down, they might just be precursors to the same better as taking the over later in the week when the rest of the public catches on. So don't don't necessarily think that it's a

but one move and done kind of thing. But I'll take the Broncos here for no other reason than I don't trust the Chargers on the road in Denver in late October, and I don't think the Broncos should be a three point dog at home. And I know home is in quotes this year against the Charges, I can't be more impressed with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers managed

to lose games like this. And you know, speaking of Philip Rivers, Todd, that was the famous game, Jeff, I can think you were with us for this one too, that game against Denver at Denver with Philip Rivers where he just threw the ball into the dirt on third down and Chargers manager, Yeah, figured out a way to lose that game. Denver plus three for me my third pick by the way, it should have never even gotten

to that. If you remember that game, it was twenty six and the third quarter in Philip rivers through an interception to I, he makes me so angry. And and and last week the Chargers come from ahead, come from behind win against the Jaguars, who are terrible by Gardner Minshew. I don't know if you saw this news. Gardner Minshew admitted just today, I believe it's just today this morning, that he has multiple fractures in his throwing hand. The Jaguars had no idea about this and his status for

next week. Because the Jaguars don't play this week, his status for next week is very much in doubt. So they did that. The Chargers did against a Gardner Minshew impaired Jaguars team almost lost big turnover for the Jaguars late in the third quarter that turned that game and made it a non sweat in the end for Chargers survivor pickers. Anyway, All right, uh so we are at the Todd Did you have anything on Thursday night tonight or no? I mean, Eileen heavily to Carolina. I agree

with Jeffrey. First of all, Carolina beat the pants out of it Land in the last game. I had the over in that game and lost because Carolina's defense really stifled Atlanta. I don't think Julio Jones played in that game. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he did not play in that game, so that that is a difference. The thing is, the Falcons are also a little bit like the the Saints. I don't know if you guys I mean noticed this, but they don't seem to play

as fast and as well on the on grass. I don't I don't know if the numbers would bear that out, but it just seems to me that that whenever they get on grass, they're just not the same offensive firepower. So I kind of like Carolina with Jeff as a bonus pick. Okay uh And then comes to our teaser of the week again, as Todd said, we're all six and one, me and Mikey. What was Mikey's teaser. Mikey's

teaser last week was Detroit Lions. This week? Oh this week? Yeah, this week, Mikey's teaser was the Green Bay Packers minus one with the Miami Dolphins plus nine and a half and to a interesting interesting All right, Jeff, we have done very well on these this year, what is your two leg at six point teaser of the week. So I'm with Mike on his first leg. I don't see a universe where green Bay doesen't doesn't beat Minnesota by more than a field goal. I mean, they're gonna beat

him by at least the field goals. So I'll go green Bay. I guess we're going with minus one on that, guys, I guess, uh down from seven, uh, even though there's a good good amount of six and a half out there. So if you can get that, obviously get it down today half um, and then I'm I'm I'm thinking the same way gill is on Denver and the Chargers. I'll push Denver up through the six and the seven and the three up the nine very happily that that is one score game written all over it. So I'll go

green Bay minus one. Denver plus nine will be my teaser. Yeah. The only pure Stanford loong teaser legs this week are Atlanta, which I get on playing the Atlanta Falcons and the over Intact in tonight's game, But that's not my teaser of the week. Uh. And then the only other one I guess is the Raiders. Am I missing anything? Guys? That sounds correct, Todd, What do you like? I like the um I like the Denver Broncos for similar reasons that you said. I just don't see the Chargers, even

if they can beat the Broncos. I don't see them blowing out the Broncos, especially after the Broncos had such a poor week last week against Kansas City. They're gonna be loaded up for air this week against the team. Look, let's be honest. The Chargers are just an average, mediocre football team. Sometimes they're gonna look good, sometimes they're gonna look bad. I don't think they can beat the Broncos by more than nine. So give me the Broncos plus

the nine. And then also give me another team plus the nine, and that is the uh what was the other one? Oh, San Francisco forty Niners. Give me the San Francisco forty Niners plus the nine. Look, Seattle is good, but they don't have any defense, so it's very hard to win by margin if you don't have any defense. I don't see San Francisco getting spanked in this game. I think it's gonna be a tight game. Give me the Niners plus the nine and Denver plus the nine.

I kind of like that San Francisco Lake Um, by the way, says you bring bring up the Chargers Broncos again with the other prop that we looked at this morning. And I'll usually do props on my show because I think it's kind of it's kind of nonsense radio because most people don't bet them. But these are all kind

of cool. This year in the NFL, these season long ones with the Jets and the NFC East total, there was another one that was, uh, well, all four teams from you know, make it from a division into the playoffs. And they're clearly talking about the NFC West, which has the Niners at four and three in last place, and just like we were talking about with the NFC East, where there's built in wins against each other, in the NFC West there's built in losses because they play each other.

But really, if you look at the NFC, what are the only two like, what are the teams that could torpedo that from happening? Because it seems unlikely, but then you think, well who could who could ruin this? I guess New Orleans would be the number one candidate because New Orleans and Tampa whoever wins that division where it doesn't win that division, could could mess that up. Chicago is the only other one. I don't believe in Chicago,

you know. So it's interesting. It was plus three fifty, by the way, which wasn't nearly enough bang for your buck to get all four of those teams. But the other one basically betting Arizona versus Chicago versus New Orleans. Yeah, Oro or San Francisco. I think San Francisco is going to be better than gil Gil. One thing actually that up there, San Francisco goes to New Orleans later this year.

That could go a long way towards deciding that prop that. Yeah, and New Orleans plays Chicago this week, right, so there's one more loss for one of those teams. What what I was really getting at, though, was one that I couldn't decide on a bet, which was the next coach to be fired. So we've already had Bill O'Brien fired as both the coach and the GM of the Houston Texans, and then Dan Quinn got fired from Atlanta. You could argue that both of those guys should have been fired

a long time ago. But then so the new one is Adam Gaze is the short shot at plus one hundred, and my opinion was, well, they would have fired him already. They're not gonna fire him. Uh. And then there was all kinds of other people on that list. Mike McCarthy was sixteen and one, but I'm but over twenty one. I was like, well, yeah, but Dad got hurt, so I'm not sure if Jerry would do that to him.

Anthony Lynn is sixteen to one. From a football perspective, you would think Anthony Lynn would be the choice, but he's teflon, like, they just don't fire him. He's too nice of a guy, apparently, So I didn't really know. Was it Doug Morone and Jack Xonville? Was it someone like Zimmer in Minnesota who were not thinking about But I didn't like any of them. I was like, I wouldn't bet this at all. I'm not sure if you got someone. Maron's the only name that would make sense.

But they're on the by this week, and they probably would have already done it, and they're in a scenario too, and look they lose out. They have a real shot at the number one pick if the Jets win a game, Jacksonville loses out. Jacksonville is getting the first pick because their schedule will have been easier than the jet schedule, So uh, Maron would be the only guy I'd look at. I have a hard time seeing Minnesota fire firing Zimmer

in the middle of the season. Gil. I just I just have a hard time seeing that, even though that, to me is a logical pick. Without that, seasons just completely fallen. Apart for that, I have a hard time seeing anybody fire anyone at this point, for it doesn't make any sense does. By the way, Bill Belichick was included at five one, I was like, that's I don't know, that's not enough. It would need to be five jillions,

five five trillion at least taught any any choice. There By the way, Zach Tylor was not on that list at all. He wasn't even listed. Um, I can't really think of anybody that you know, I don't know. I just anyway, here's my two team six point teaser. I'm gonna take the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is consistent with my first best bet, taking Pittsburgh on the against spread at

three and a half plus three and a half. I'm also gonna take yeah, I'm also gonna take Pittsburgh in addition to the plus three and a half is one of my best bets, plus nine and a half on a teaser. Again, I am concerned about the fact that the game script of this is going to be very very uh sort of a portent of things to come. If Baltimore goes out early, this could go bad. But if Pittsburgh goes out early, I'm gonna be very comfortable

with both of these. So Pittsburgh plus nine and a half and I'm gonna tease Tennessee down to basically just having to win again with with very few Stanford Wong pure teaser legs available, I'll take Tennessee down. It's five and a half now, so I'm actually taking it, you know, two plus a half. I get it. I know you're not supposed to do that, but basically, I'm just having Tennessee win that football game against Cincinnati. And I'm I'm all about Joe Burrow and I'm all about the back

door covers of the Cincinnati Bengals. And what's the stat Four of their five losses have been by five points or fewer. Yes, four of their five losses by five points or fewer, but Cincinnati's three nineteen and one under Zach Taylor. I think it's three twenty in one. So for me, it's Pittsburgh and Tennessee as my two leg six point teaser, all right, So that for the survivors, Gil, you still have your second entry going. You want me to tell you who you've taken so far? Please tell

the world who I've taken so far? Okay, so far used the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Brianies, the New England Patriots, the Tampa Baby Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins. And last week you use Buffalo. So who's it going to be? Now? Well, comes down to for me, Uh, do I use the Kansas City Chiefs in what amounts to a Bingoes free Bingo square against the New York Jets? Or am I strategizing and keeping Kansas City for later and I gotta keep them later? Now? The answer for

me is the former. I'm playing the Chiefs. I'm using the Chiefs in week number eight. Um, I did not script out Survivor in the year of COVID. I think it's kind of a fool's errand to do that. This year because you just you worry about postponed games and that kind of thing. And again, if the game is postponed beyond Tuesday at midnight, your scrid in Survivor. But I am not. But but I did. Finally, after week six, I finally said, all right, let me see we map

this out. And so I am going to take as accordingly according to that grid that I've made, that map that I've made for myself. I'm gonna take Kansas City here against the Jets, the the fade, the Jets strategy. As I've said, there are many worst strategies and Survivor than that. It's Kansas City at home against the Jets, the nineteen and a half point favorites. I'm not gonna think of out of this week Chiefs because I don't. By the way, that was really interesting what you said

about the Thanksgiving there's only six teams. There's gonna be people that have already used up all six of those teams. Well, that's part of circus thing. By the way, if you look at the Chiefs, just finishing the thought, if you look at the Chiefs schedule, there isn't really a completely obvious spot to play them again. Some might argue with that, and do you really think they're gonna go fifteen and one. I mean, they're gonna lose at some other point. So

I'll take the Chiefs here. That, yeah, the Thanksgiving thing because of the presence of a team like the Jets, because Circa couldn't have anticipated to teams so epically bad sorry Jeff, so bad that people would still be around right now. And it's really not eroding quickly at all.

So they've got to be thrilled that they have that Thanksgiving rule, which is instead of a seventeen week survivor, it essentially becomes an eighteen week with this mini week of Thanksgiving, and the three games are really difficult unless there's a major injury to someone very important in one of these three games. There is no obvious choice. It's Baltimore Pittsburgh the rematch, It's Dallas Washington the rematch, and it's get ready for this the first game that day,

Houston Detroit. So it's so thanks as you can plan everything to get to Thanksgiving, and you can sort of plan everything until the last week. Week seventeen is always scorely, but like Thanksgiving is just a prayer and you have well, will you would you? Absolutely? I think they stink. I mean I wouldn't say it that quickly, Gail. If we were picking that today, if you made me take the pick today, I would take Detroit. I would not be watching that game to basically that that that's what I

would do, just because. And this was when remember when when the when the schedule was released, we all looked at this for this reason, with the with the survivor pool a circuit usually Thanksgiving, Gil and we all said, all right, we're gonna save the Dallas Cowboys for Thanksgiving as Washington football team. And now the Cowboys are one of the five worst teams in football, so it completely again that that day is gonna be h It's gonna be a bloody Thanksgiving for folks that are left in

the pool. But but we you know, that's the thing, for all these survivor players, including myself, who are still alive, you almost have to be okay with losing then, right like it's like, well, we knew this was coming. This was the day where it's sort of just coin flippy. But I think you're right now as we stand, Jeff, that's kind of what I'm thinking about too, it's like

Detroit at home short week. Maybe that's the way to play it, but that could change, right if uh, you know, God gets hurt, Lamar Jackson, Lamar Jackson gets hurt or Big Ben gets hurt. I mean, there's so many things that can happen between now and then. But imagine if Circuit didn't have the Thanksgiving rule. There would be like a hundred people get to the finish line I think in this season and they never know if another big upset is coming that could wipe out Jets would one

game and half absolutely, But that's the thing. It's like there's no sure things, so fading the Jets look at some point they might win. Maybe backing the Chiefs like saving the Chiefs for another time. I don't know. I don't know, Like they've lost already, right, So as if you have a free Bingo square, at least for me, I'm using the Chiefs this week. I have them. I'm using them, um. But obviously there's other choices. If you have Tampa Bay, a lot of people are gonna pick

Tampa Bay. But with the Giants outbreak, now will they really pick Tampa Bay because you might lose all together? Right if the game gets postponed because of the COVID outbreak on the Giants, so Tampa Bay looked pretty obvious. I'm not sure you can play that anymore. Will you take Philly against Dallas? Philly was another consideration you would, Todd. I'm not so sure I would. I don't trust. I can't stand Dallas. I think they're horrendous and now they're

going to be even worse. But I don't Philadelphia apparently beat the Giants shouldn't have beaten the Giants. This is why, well, actually we'll get to it in old bit on on one of your last questions, Gil, but Philadelphia should not be almost a ten point favorite against anyone at this point and they and they proved that on Thursday night, where they needed a lot of luck to be the Giant team that I mean, the Giants think there if it wasn't for the Jets, the Giants who probably be

the worst team in the NFL. Right, that's right, with apologies to the Cowboys, that's right. And if they were playing an NFL team, I would agree. Unfortunately, they're playing Austin this week with quarterback Ben d Nucci. All I'm just saying is all I'm saying is Philadelphia. I don't really trust them against Dallas quite frankly. And you know

what else, I don't trust green Bay hosting Minnesota. It would not shock me if Minnesota just has this random game where they beat the you know where they beat the pants off the green Bay defense and score a lot of points. I don't know. Those are division games that scare me. They might all listen. I say this every week. These games scare me. But like every one of these seems to come home like there are no

massive upsets. And so Survivor has three hundred fifty people left with with eleven weeks of circle left through seven, and that's special Thanksgiving quirk. Yes, sir, you know one other good one that I think And I'm not a huge fan of picking road teams in the Survivor pool, but Tennessee against Cincinnati feels pretty good and pretty safe. Also, just because Cincinnati's defense is horrible and that run defense

is especially horrible. That could be a day where Derrick Henry just goes absolutely nuclear 'ar in Tennessee wins a game and you're not sweating too much. Well, so this segway is perfectly that we're kind of already answering this the big favorite most likely to lose out right one of our final two questions, because it really does just come down to the Chiefs nineteen and a half point

favorites against the Jets. We already mentioned the Eagles nine or eight and a half point favorites against Dallas, Green Bay seven point favorites against Minnesota, and Tampa Bay twelve point favorites at the Giants, and it's like, who of those is the most likely to lose out right? Jeff, your thought again would be who I by default, I have to take Philadelphia, even though I don't think they're gonna lose. It. Just just a bed again. The Cowboys

are all world bad right now. Benda Nucci is a fit string NFL quarterback on on normal on a regular team that is in the Jets of the Cowboys at this point. But the Eagles are bad. The Eagles are legitimately bad, and they still might win the NFC East anyway, but uh, it's well in the realm of possibility that wins gets the interception bug and all of a sudden you've got a problem there. So that's the only reason I don't think they're gonna lose. I think Philly is

more likely to cover than lose. But of all those other teams, no one else is gonna come close to losing. I mean, Tampa is going to destroy the Giants. I took Kansas City as one of the picks, and I love Tennessee this week too. So by the fault, that's Philip, and Tennessee is not even part of this because it fell to five and a half. So five and a half, yeah, and I like green Bay to gil I don't. I don't agree with you on that. I think I think Minnesota can't give up mode. Well, so Tampa Bay in

Kansas City are not losing. So it really is a binary choice, right, it's a choice between It's a choice between Green Bay and UM and of course Phildelphia. I mean that it really is, Todd. You're gonna say, then it's green Bay, right, Yeah, I could totally see. Look, I mean, Minnesota played good against Seattle. They're not that

bad a team. They could have a great game. Hearon Rodgers, you know, has a screw up game, and you know it could happen, all right, I would say green Bay, just I don't know if I would say green Bay. When I say Green Bay or Philly, you know what I'm gonna say, Philly. Philly by default don't see it happening, but they would be my choice. And then the final question if we live in a bizarro world and right now we don't have any postponements right now, but again,

Giants with a little bit of a breakout. But we have fourteen games in the NFL, four teams on by UH and those four teams on by are Jacksonville, Arizona, Houston, and Washington. But of the remaining games, fourteen of them we get to is that we have to choose a side and every single one of them except one. It's a bizarro world where you're forced to make bets one game where you get a free pass. Jeffrey, what is

the game on the side you want no part of? Yeah, I want nothing to do in Las Vegas and Cleveland, no, thank you. I have no feel for what Cleveland is

now going to be. With Odell Beckham out, this Baker Mayfield actually get better or does that offense regress like it would normally would with an elite talent being out and the Raiders going to the Eastern time zone and a local one o'clock game ten am for the body clocks, even though it's a little different this week because of daylight savings, so really be eleven am for their body clocks. I still don't have a feel at all for these teams anyway, with all those factors put in. So no,

thank you for Las Vegas and Cleveland. That's as good a choice as any man. Todd, what was Mike's again, Indianapolis Detroit. I believe it was. Yeah, that's what he Yeah, he wanted no part of Indianapolis Detroit, Todd, what's yours? I want to know part of the Rams Miami because I just don't know what to a Tagavalo is yet. So I just don't understand that team right now. You know,

with Fitzy, I know exactly what I'm getting. I'm either getting some compident quarterback or a blow up for interception performance. I don't know what I'm getting with two. I think it's Indianapolis Detroit for me. I think I agree with Mikey and and all these are good choices. You could pick a lot of these games, but Indianapolis Detroit. I don't know if I really understand either of these teams. Like, I don't know if it's like people were all over

they were sweating Indiana's defense. Indianapolis defense was the greatest thing in the world. They're not that great. And then Philip Rivers can't trust him. And there's Detroit three and three, right, but like we kill Matt Patricia because he's terrible in game coach, and then what I'm supposed to know what we're getting with them? Detroit takes a lot of leads and a squandered a lot of leads. I get it. They came back against the Falcons. Something finally worked out

for them perfectly. But I don't trust them. So I mean, for me, that game is I could see any outcome, Like if you told me now Indianapolis won by double digits, if you told me Detroit won by double digits, I might be surprised by Detroit winning by double digits, but either way, I could see it happening. Um So, that's the deal. Excellently done, gentlemen. Thank you to Mike Palm who had to break out of here because he's a busy man these days. With the Circle opening, maybe next

week we will be at Circa. That will be the hope. Um So, for Mike Palm and Todd, wishing of thank you, gentlemen, Thank you Todd from your mother's attic, your mother's cork addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It's cork, right, Yeah, it's cork. That's what I thought. It's it's a ginger bread. Uh. And Jeff Parls, who, by the way, I finally said his name correctly, so because his parents will be upset with me, I think if I didn't say it. Jeff Pearls,

who affectionately known as Parlay. The Parlay podcasts available. We're all podcasts are distributed, right, Jeff. Of course, of course I'm gonna as soon as we're done here, I'm gonna be riding right into right into one of those as well. So. But Gil, it's Gil, It's it's it's awesome. Awesome to see is always awesome to hear you, awesome to uh, awesome to see how everyone is doing well through these crazy times. And also to UH again wishing the best

for Chris Andrews. Hope he can get on the men sooner rather than later, of course, Uh and UH, and congratulations again to Mike and Derek and the entire team over at Circa. I can't wait to see that place in person. It looks absolutely incredible. It's insane, it's absolutely insane. The sports Book inside and outside, absolutely insane and uh yes, very kind of you. Also well wishes from all of us to Chris Andrews to close the show, who we hope to have for guessing lines on Monday right here

on the Beating the Book Podcast. Thank you all for listening. Good luck with all your bets week eate in the NFL. Yeah, thank you boys. The Battle Battle b