Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 7 Preview

I mean, there was only one person complaining, and he happened to be on the pod as well. But Todd, what was your issue with that? I had no problem with it. It just when Mikey is so sycophantic. It reminded me of a certain situation in the news all the time. But the sycophantic questions were just a little too much for me, you know, you know, sitting at the at the stat I mean, I love it too.

I like the reminiscing too. It's just when when the questions are asked in such a sycophantic nature, like saying sycophantic yes, you should have challenged him like you did Dr Bob last year. You should win right after Brent. Are you gonna be in? Are you gonna be polite to our guest today? By the way, it's Mike Palm, of course, the the vice president of operations here at Circus Sports Circle opening in five days. Are you under like lots of pressure? Uh? Well, there's so many moving parts.

I mean it just there's a lot of things that still need to be done, Gail. Both from a construction side, from a technology side, from a staff training side, we're actually having our first play day today, um, where people are gonna come in and we're gonna put free slot play on a card. We're gonna give them fake money and fake chips and actually give them an experience. They're

gonna eat in one of the restaurants. We had hoped the pool would be ready for today and won't be ready till the second play day Sunday, so their trial run will be right in the middle of an NFL Sunday as well as uh Game five of the World Series, so that we'll we'll get to really test We'll test the pool, and we'll test the sports book screens and all that uh to so, but we'll learn more as as as the Great Michael Lombardi says, you have to know what you don't know, and so today is is

a lot about trying to find out what we don't know. UM. Last question about this the question the answer that everybody wants to know. When you say black tie for your opening Tuesday night, does that mean a bow tie or does that mean Hey, the tie has just gotta be black. That means that you must wear a black tuxedo with a black bow tie. I the bow tie is not gonna happen for me, man, They're gonna send me away. You go to get a tuxedo. Gil That's what Black

Time Fashion Silast Debrah Song says. F them old schoolers, this is the way to go. Well, actually, what yeah? Can we bring in our guest Drew Dinsick for God's sake? So we've gone five minutes in ladies and gentlemen, and I'm so happy to have it on the show. Uh, he's the co host. I don't know if he's a lead host of co host, I don't know how we say it with his buddy, Andy Molitor of the Deep Dive podcast awesome podcast on not only football, but tennis

and the NBA. Those are his go to sports. Drew dinsick, everybody, Drew, thank you. You were about to say that bow tie not necessary? Is that what I was about to hear? Yeah, I do a black tie in every year and I've worn like, if you have a nice black as long as it's like a nice black you know, necktie that that and with as long as it's with the rest

of a tuxedo get up. That's totally kosher in the in the black tie world, and in l A at least, maybe not old Maybe Vegas is a little more classic, but you know that's that's pretty pretty kosher around my part of town. Smart man right there. Well, you have to understand Derek grew up in Gross Point, Michigan, so there's a little bit more of an old money field of black tie and what that means. So, uh, didn't mean to skip over. Todd Todd Wishne from his mother's attic.

His mother is Cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. How you doing, Yes, I'm doing great. You know, it's just great. Who is this guy? Who is this guy? All of a suddle day? What's wrong with you? It's been three weeks since I played tennis because of this damn hamstring injury and it's getting me really upset, and I'm I'm missing weather day after weather, day beautiful beautiful tennis. Weather has been like two rainy days and twenty beautiful days, and that's eighteen

days of tennis I missed. If you're disappointing, right, that's that description is sufficient? All right? Uh, here's what we do for those turning into this podcast for the first time. We go through our three best bets. Actually we go the Thursday night game first. If it happens to be one of our best bets, then so be it, um and then each person in the end we'll have three best bets. We'll do the teaser of the week for everybody, which we're still killing the teasers, right, You guys are one.

We were all five and one, five and one. Do you want to know the records too? In the regular record, please the courts stenographer Todd Wishnett, please tell us what our as sports stenographer I would like to say. Gilly Ice has made a huge comeback to get the seven ten and one A beautiful week last week with his Miami Dolphins, which we may or may not saying later Tampa Bay as well, and only went down with Carolina minus one. By the way, we all had Carolina. Every

time we all have somebody will ever wins. You just fade that right away. Mikey had a poor week. He doesn't usually have too many poor weeks. He had a one and two, not very good with that Houston Texans. He's probably kicking himself right now because of Romeo Cornell and two point conversions and not two point conversions and all kinds of shenanigans. And then I had a bad week as well, a one and two with Carolina. My over in the Steelers game didn't get there, But then

I did have Arizona. So seven eleven for me, Mikey ten seven and one in you guilt tes seven ten and one, Drew then at zero and zero with a zero and zero's direct. So I'm a half game better than Utah, is what I'm hearing. You're not now, You're you're a yeah, a half game, that's correct, I thought I heard. Okay, uh, let us start with Drew for well, let's start with Thursday night football tonight, Philadelphia four and

a half point favorites hosting the New York Giants. Not exactly a barn Burner from a fans standpoint, but perhaps some betting value. Drew was kind enough to come on a numbers game at Visa earlier in the week. Uh, and so I know what's coming here, and you've kind of convinced me, Drew where you're very logical diet tribe about this game. This is one of your best bets, right. Yeah, absolutely,

I think Philadelphia is the side here. Um. I got in earlier at five and a half and was absolutely agog when it went from six and a half to three and a half on the news that Miles Standards and Zach Ertz weren't going to be playing, which again, this is something that anyone who watched the Philly Baltimore game knew. You know, those guys clearly went out and

it wasn't you know, tiki tack injuries. Those were you know, real problems, and so the fact that you know they get confirmed out and the line drifted, you know, moved that much was shocking. Um got more down at three and a half, it's now back up to four and a half. I realistically, Um, this is kind of one of the only angles that I play when I played Thursday night football. Um, you have a rookie head coach

and Joe Judge. It is extremely difficult for coaches who have not been in this situation before to realize how much work they need to put in the week before so that they can implement all of the wrinkles and all of the nuance that you need to have a game specific game plan in place for a Thursday night opponent.

And Doug Peterson has mastered this. He has done extremely well on Thursday Night football the last handful of years, and he is now coming to you to really to me, the fact that he held Lane Johnson out of that Baltimore game, Uh, the fact that they held Sean Jackson out of that Baltimore game reflected a little bit of gamesmanship, Like, Okay, we know that this Giants game is a lot more important in terms of our overall potential to make the

playoffs this season than this Baltimore game, where we're you know, going to be you know, double digit underdogs. So let's save up our bullets a little bit and be ready for this Giants and take it to them. So I think this sets up very well for the Eagles to kind of right the ship, get right, so to speak, and really set the stage for a run as I personally think that they, you know, will win the NFC. He's comfortably given all the injuries to the Dallas Cowboys.

We calling it your number one, your number two, or number three, best bet just for a bookkeeper, probably number three, number three. It's my number three as well. What's the number officially four and a half now four and a half, uh, and it's it's exactly what Drew said. Lane Johnson and DeShawn Jackson mean more than Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders.

Lane john there are Lane Johnson's stats. How often do you hear about an offensive lineman in the NFL where the Eagles are just unbelievable, unbelievably better a t S with him than without him? And DeShawn Jackson. I can say this as a fan of the Washington football team. We all we never really could figure out the chicken and the egg when Kirk Cousins played for the for

the Skins. Was it DeShawn spreading the field that allowed for Jordan Reed to have such success underneath for Cousins or was Cousins, you know, the the impetus for all of it. And I think, after all these years. I think it was DeShawn That's not crazy, that's really not and he doesn't he doesn't. He you can't count on him for a full season anymore. But when he is healthy and he's on the field, he's a game changer. Um. I'm very prepared for them to go over the top

to him early and often. This one really test trying to take the top off the Giants defense. And realistically, the Giants have only looked competent defensively when they've gone up against teams that can't pass deep. You know, they had a decent performance against the Rams, but it was mostly because the Rams were just trying this short, you know, average depth of target stuff, and that's what that's the only thing that the Giants can reasonably cover in the

passing game. So if if you know, if we have reasonably competent offensive line play tonight and Lane Jackson, you know, like Lane Johnson being back is a huge part of that. I think Carson Wentz picks this team apart and really, you know, shows out tonight. I like it so much, Mikey that I'm putting in my circum millions picks earlier to include Philadelphia. How about that. Wait, is that your

three one or two gil three? Really? Yeah, that's strong, because you know time is very important with COVID this year, yourself into all five picks, forty eight hours of COVID prayers is what I'm gonna be st what's your current point standing right now in the circumanion? I am. I'll tell you again. I'll give you the exact trajectory week by week one, three and one, two and three, two and three, three and two, four and one, three and two. So where was that? I see that the one person

has the top three spots. One guy has three entries, is first, second and died for third. Amazing, it is amazing, amazing. Well, he just hasn't been doing much variance in his picks. And then if he gets all the way to the end, he's gonna be able to do all kinds of ship and again, which is what which is what I planned to do with my two entries. But you see how that's going. But just to give you an idea, like seven and three, I am in this this current quarterly,

I got no chance. I mean yeah, I mean I don't know. Well, the first week, a hundred ninety seven people went five and oh and week five, right, the first week of the quarter, like my record? All right, so that's pick number three for both. Do you Todd, have any thoughts on tonight's game before we get off Thursday night? Not? Not really. You know, I don't really like this game. You know, the Giants, you know, Riverboat Ron.

I'm still I'm still upset about Riverboat Run. I had over thirty nine and a half on the end game, and as the Redskins are driving down, I'm thinking, is Riverboat Ron gonna do something stupid and go for two here? And it's in the back of my head all the way down, but I'm like, well, they won't get it in anyway, so I don't even have to worry about it.

Gets it in, gets it in. And then I see them panning to him because I've got the I have the eight box direct TV on, so I'm not listening, but i can see they're looking at him, and I'm thinking, oh, no, please, Riverboat please, no, no to please? Yeah. Yeah, Well, how much let me ask you this, how much of that is the fact that his nickname is Riverboat Run, that he felt the need to live up to it, like if his name was tugboat Ron right like people might not have done it, but Ron, Yeah, I would have

been happy to rename him during the drive. I would just Conservative Justice Amy Coney Ron, That's what I would have called him, Mr Conservative. Not gambling at all, no gambling. Do you like Do you like my Merrick Garland come back last week? Did you like that? That was? That? Was? That was? I love? Mike going, Oh yes, Oh, it's so fantastic Notre Dame. We have such an incredible pride

from Notre Day. We're golden domers and we love it and we love controlling the Supreme Court with seven Catholics. Thank you well, your buddy Raj Body had had to put a little tweet out there about how we were we were we were we were masking our anti feminist feminism in and some pride of Notre Dame and Brent and I rehearsed all of it, which is not true. It is a prideful thing for Notre Dame, no matter what her politics are, and the mid fifties were indeed

a golden era. Okay, did you did you have anything on Thursday night football? I love the Eagles here, I really do. But you know, Doug eep is so bad with field goals. I mean, the guy is the worst of all time. I wish this game was a three. I'd lay three. I could have lud them in a money line parley if I was going to do something. I think the Giants are really bad. I think Danny Dimes sucks. I mean people thought, oh oh they were good against the Dallas defend. The Dallas defense is one

of the worst of all time. He wasn't great against him. I mean they make bad quarterbacks look average. They had so many chances to win that game. I mean I thought he looked He's not good. He's not good at all. Uh. And so I mean I don't know. The Giants still were in a game against Washington. They only had a hundred passing yards and they I mean, the Giants are not good. The Eagles are the best team in the East. Okay, they're gonna win the East. Uh. But it's the best

hotel downtown. It's different. Okay, these hotels I don't all lose money. Okay, every team in the East has a losing record. Todd Town, you came out here with zero energy, so I didn't know you were joking. Uh. I'd like to. I'd like to not use the pick though on this, but I do like the Eagles. I love all right,

let's go to the best bets. By the way, Drew not only with a deep dive podcast, but I sold him short also stuff for Rotal World, writes for points spread weekly at Visa for goodness sake, which is a huge kit for Visa. I love it when he dissects the quadrants of a tennis draw. That's the best bet. By the way, you better not be joking, because that's like the love it. Yeah, I love it, by the way, speaking it's the way if you guys are betting this

in game tennis. I was watching the tennis yesterday with with Draft Kings fan Duel and Bookmaker's lines up at the same time. Gil. It is unbelievable differences. It's incredible. I mean, somebody like you who loves the tennis, you would feast. You would absolutely feast. I mean there, I was watching that Zverev against um I forget who he was going against, Vereev guy, and he was like, it was ridiculous. I think Todd, well, I don't know all

the tennis names. I know Shapabalov, but uh, you got today. It was ugly. Yeah, right, Simon took him down the streets. But yeah, this very match was wild yesterday he be yeah yeah, big old Noman in the first set, then dropped six three it looked like he was going to lose the match, and then came back at one sixth three, So that was that was a weird one. But if you drew, if you're into it, and you bet, if you look at these lines, like at the exact same time, Fandel,

Draft Kings and Bookmaker at the same it's incredible. The difference is incredible. Did you did you try? And is? Are they don't spinning circle you to death with Vandel? Actually they don't. Fandel it's like a five seconds and it has a countdown, so it's not like William Hill where it just spins forever and you have no idea when you're gonna get it. Fandel has like a counter time down, so you know exactly when you get it. And then the DraftKings has a spinner, but it's a

quick spinner. It's not like a spin for the rest of your life and try to screw you cut type of spinner. It's just a quick spinner. And then you're in and then Bookmaker. You know Bookmaker, it's fast. Yeah. I saw your buddy Crack wrote an article about the new William Hill app in the spin to deal with this. Did you read that article? Uh? No, but I've heard

about the fallout from it. But here's the thing. It's actually better to me because in the old app, the original version, it would spin and you didn't know whether it would get rejected or not when it went into the spin mode, right, it may eventually approve it, or it may reject it. You might have to wait ninety seconds or two minutes. Not a good thing. This one. As soon as it spins, you know you're not getting it in and you have to shut off your phone,

turn it back on and replace the bet. But at least you know you're not getting it in before you were caught and you couldn't cancel it either. Better better to be horribly egregious than but but as a better to me, and I'm betting in game on all this, you know in soccer especially, and the lines moving, the total is moving, the juice on it. At least I know I know right away it's not getting in. Instead of waiting two minutes and by the time I get

it back in, it's moved fifteen cents. You know, there's a there's some of these two where you it spins you and it accepts them, and you don't know it's spinning and you don't know that it's accepted them. That's the worst of all two or three tops. Anyway, that's another de incentivizes anyone who knows what they're doing from doing it. That's right, well said, all right, Drew number

one for you this week? Man, Okay, I've gone I've gone back and forth on what my favorite look of the card is, and I've landed on an under in today's NFL, my number one, number one edge on the card and under in today's NFL. And it is in division at least, and it is fifty six points, which is a lot. Uh And it is the Seahawks in the Arizona Cardinals under fifty six. There's a couple angles of player number one after that Cardinals Dallas Cowboys game.

I realistically, you know, kind of going back through and figuring out what happened there. Um. I made two adjustments to the Cardinals. I adjusted their past defense up and I adjusted their offense in total that was a very very very misleading final score given that you know, three touchdowns were you know, eighty plus the yarders and are not eight not all three were eighty yarders, but you

know they had three broken players. And I hang that entirely on you know, poor execution by the Dallas defense, not what you know, the scheme they came up with for the Arizona Cardinals. This Arizona Cardinals offense is legitimately a bottom five offense in the NFL. In my opinion, what Kyler Murray is doing in the passing game is you know, it's it's not uh, you know, good enough to go toe to toe with the Seahawks, even the Seahawks defense, which is underwhelmed to this point in the season. Um,

he's making plays with his legs to extend drives. But you know it's it's not, um, it's not an effective way in my opinion, at least to go toe to toe with the Seahawks. So, uh, Seahawks defense coming off of extra rest, obviously they're coming in off thereby. Uh, they've underwhelmed this season, but a lot of that has been injury related. To my opinion, they're gonna have a

full complement of their secondary back in this one. Uh, A healthy Jamal Adams on the field, by the way that Bobby Wagner and KG Right have been playing so far this season, all of it to me spells, um, you know, a solid defensive performance here by the Seahawks. And you know, we've seen this in the past to where a team that was rolling through the season white hot, can't lose, everything is going their way, gets an early

by and it cools them off a little bit. And I can entirely see that playing into this way the Seahawks offense comes into this one. Um. You know, it's difficult to when you when everything is going your way and you're winning, and you have a week off, it is difficult to come back into work that next week and grind the same way you were before you got

your you know, your week of vacation. Uh. And I think that you could see a little bit of rust, a little bit of of you know, a little bit of um just a little a little tougher, uh, you know, less ease. So to speak of how the Seahawks have been moving the ball and scoring points in this one. On top of the fact that now with a full complement of of secondary players the Arizona Cardinals secondary, I do believe it warrants an upgrade UM. Their coverage was

very against that wide receiving corps from Dallas. Most people will focus on the fact that the blitzes and the sacks and the Andy Dalton performance was pathetic, but uh, you know, a lot of that was borne out of excellent coverage by the by the Cardinal secondary. So this sets up perfectly for UM twenty four to ten type of contests. And so fifty six points I think is

laughably high. It's taken me a while to get to this point that this is my favorite player of the week, but I just I really can't crack this any other way and see that this is going to be a shootout, one of the one of the I don't think we emphasize this enough when we talk about the NFL from week to week, whether it's on a podcast, whether it's a radio, whatever, how we we look at the result thirty eight to ten, and even though we watched the game,

we don't take a beat to recognize if Zeke Elliott doesn't fumble those two balls, this entire game is different. And so it isn't coming upon us as handicappers to like to be honest about things like that. I'm not gonna say. Sometimes still, you know, it's sometimes it's one play like Cooper Cup and the third down in goal for the for the Rams, if he catches that ball, which he catches out of a hundred, it's a completely different game. For the over under, it's a completely different

game for the points bread. Sometimes it's one play. Yeah, And so I'm again, I'm not gonna say the Cowboys would have won. Maybe they would have, maybe they wouldn't have. But but thirty eight to ten it was. It should not have been by the way that Kenyan Drake rushed to the house with under two minutes left. For those of us who had in game over totals like a forty five and a half forty six and a half, was one of the more surreal things I've ever witnessed. Ever,

was like, Oh my God, is this happening. I only remember it happening two other times, one time in a Baltimore Cowboys game where it happened multiple times in the last minute. I can't remember it almost ever happening. It's like it was unbelievable what are you talking about, Todd? In the in the second week of the year, Tampa Bay was trying to run out the clock and broke the fifty yard or cover that that cost. To me, Okay, it happened this year. You're right, Mike Dallas was live

for a defensive touchdown. I mean, the Arizona could have scored a defensive touchdown any time in that last four minutes too, so they were that that thing had left till the very end. Um, Mikey number one for you, sir. Okay, I'd like to make this comment about Drew's pick, you know, to what he said about his evaluation of the Cardinals. You know, I gave out the Cardinals on Thursday here on Visa. On Friday, I bet him laying one and

a half. I bet him I laid one. I took him at a pick on Monday, and and I and I tremendously downgrade them after watching that game, which they easily come. Seriously, I mean, what does Kyler Murray? I mean, the first quarter and a half was pathetic, Drew and Drew and I talked about this on radio the other day. Take three teams now another Dolphins have actually made a quarterback change. But Dolphins, Cardinals, Bills three above football teams.

They're play on offense is clearly the quarterback just running. I I thought Clint Cliff Kingsbury, they looked like they were ill prepared coming into that game, that the receivers were running the wrong routes, or Murray didn't know where he was throwing the ball. They did, they couldn't move, they couldn't convert third downs until he scrambled on third and twelve or whatever, and they finally and finally picked one up. But I was not impressed with their offense

in the least on Monday Night. And then you know they scored what four straight touchdowns that's what got them all their points until that run to the end. I'm gonna go with the Gate team I bet against last week. I'm gonna take the Bears in six on Monday Night against the Rams. Listen to this defense is better than we think. And I continue to and I continue to it continues to get flattered how well the defense has played. Really. I mean, um, yes, Stafford moved the ball on him

early in Week one and got and got that big lead. Um, but look what they did with Brady. I mean, there were some self inflicted injuries on Thursday night, but they but they held Brady down as as well as anybody did. And they went in there and they made Bridgewater look all out of rhythm the whole day, that that Caroline offense couldn't run the ball, they couldn't get the play action passing game going. They look very well and Nick

Foles makes enough plays to make this team competitive. And uh, you know, it was another uninspiring performance by the Rams. They've made their bones by beating up on the Giants and uh and and Washington. So look, I think the Bears are the better team. I know they have to go to l A, but I think this game is certainly stays within a touchdown and I think the Bears are live to win it. So I'm gonna take the six on Monday Night, all right, Mike, he's first picked

the Bears plus the points Monday night? Uh plus six? Yes, plus six in census. There todd number one for you, sir. Before I give you my number one, I'd like to get an opinion from the three experts here that we have Michael Palm, Dr. Gil Alexander and Drew who sounds extremely articulate. I'd like to know what you guys. Have you ever heard him before? Todd? Have you ever why? No, I was a compliment. I've never heard him before. Right, that's what you gave away that you've never listened a boy.

This guy sounds articulate, sounds. That's what's my fault that I haven't listened to every podcast in the world. I mean, come on, the guy, he's not feasting, he's not following the money goes on Guil Show all the time. Now, I mean, this is not like he's just person trying to give you a compliment. But Mike has to turn everything negative. It's a Mikey thing. What will can I tell you? Anywhile Gil gives us a day ahead of

time who the guests is gonna be. Maybe if you're not heard of him, you'd go look him up, do some research, watch some of his work. Have to make any picks on whether Drew's a good guest or not. Mikey, I got enough research to do. Okay, give me a break. I'm watching freaking a Polo bear Cheva soccer here in the meantime, under under rapidly and Arsenal scoreless and half. We're looking good under two and a half plus one fifteen.

Now we're getting into a middling position soon. By the way, another you're another person who would freaking love the Draft Kings and the fantal soccer. But anyways, um my, my question is this last week I thought Denver was gonna have a hard time scoring against New England. They actually moved the ball a little bit better than than you would think, but I thought Belichick would be able to, you know, game plan up on Drew Lock, who I

still do not believe is any good. So it was there was team total eighteen and a half minus one thirty seven available, and there was team total minus under seventeen and a half minus one ten available. I didn't want to pay up twenty seven extra cents to get the under eighteen and a half, so I went with the seventeen and a half. And of course, because am hates me, of course it has to land on eighteen, the most uncommon possible number in the history of football.

My question is, had I been a person who has him doesn't hate, do you think that was the correct move to not pay the extra twenty seven cents for eighteen? Can I just tell Drew once again, Hashem is the Hebrew for the name which the Orthodox Jews, which todd you to be one of call God. And so he believes a sham hates him. For everybody that makes sense jeseus. Yeah, some people have a different term for him. So the question was, I don't I don't. I am an advocate

of always, always, always sell. I'm never I'm never buying points in pretty much anything. I mean, if you do, you think, if you do the numbers, it's it's almost there's almost always a player tax buying and and and so the vice versus is true. There's a little bit less. You take a little big away in my opinion, if you sell. So I wasn't one second, let me let me make this player. Yeah, I wasn't buying the eighteen. It was done two different sites, so I wasn't necessarily

paying up on the buy. But I just thought twenty seven cents for the A team was too much. It is insane. Yeah, I would add to what Drew say. I think Drew is good at this too. It's not like eighteen is a key number either, right, that was my point, Yeah, right, yeah, it's I thought there could have been there could have been an older Hebrew parable and this that you could have gotten visited by a demon and he would have been like, the Denver Broncos

aren't going to score any touchdowns in the games. And I will let you bet the money line for even money on the New England Patriots. How much would you have had on the Patriots? Because six field goals and they beat the Patriots. That was the by far, the most bizarre outcome of last week. And realistically, I can't look at the Patriots Niners game and make any sense out of it this week because I just don't know who the Patriots are. How do you perform that way?

It was? That was that was a very strange, strange six field goals for the Broncos on their first six drives, never scored again, and then I could I could see it coming. When it got to nine, I'm thinking, oh, please, please, no, please, any number of all the weird things that happened last week with Romeo Cornell going for two, up seven, um

Ron Rivera trying to go for the win. How about the Broncos up eighteen to nine, all of a sudden deciding you know, we're gonna start heaving the ball down field? Now it's just you guys are up eighteen to nine, You're not down eighteen to nine. It was Vic Fangio. You love Vin. He's the best, that guy, I'll tell you. Anyways, my best pick, sorry for digressing so much, but my my best pick of the week. I'm gonna go with the Carolina Panthers. I went to the well last week.

I should have listened to the Brent must Burger who was warning me not to do it. He said the Bears defense was too good. That being said, let's let's be honest. Though Carolina gave him a touchdown the beginning of the game by throwing an interception at the ten yard line, there are many iterations of that football game where it's a toss up game, and even even so,

it was a toss up game. So I don't think it was such a horrible pick that all three of us like Carolina, but we should have listened to Brent and uh whatever. Anyways, this week, I like Carolina seven and a half points against a team like New Orleans. I do not think New Orleans is elite anymore. I think they're still a very good team. I just don't think they're elite and I think Carolina is the kind

of average football to team. Throw it into a big, you know, bucket, and you don't want to be laying seven and a half points when you've got a team that's above average against the maybe a slightly above average team. Right, plus seven and a half. That's a lot of point. New Orleans defense isn't that good? New Orleans has given up a lot of points this year. Um, So I don't like, you know, I like taking points against teams that may give up back door touchdowns at the end.

I mean New Orleans gave up thirty four to Vegas, They gave up thirty seven to Green Bay. They even gave up twenty nine to Detroit, gave up twenty seven to to Herbert. So you know, if Teddy two gloves can get me to twenty four, they could lose thirty one and I still win. So let me have Carolina Panthers plus seven and a half. Let him have it, Carolina plus seven and a half. My number one pick of the week is, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers wow in a battle.

By the way, Pittsburgh now a dog in this game. Uh. This happened last night. I went in to do primetime action. I was like, oh, look, Pittsburg's two point favor and then by the time the show was over, Pittsburgh was an underdog. This is the weirdest thing. I don't know if you've noticed this this year more than others drew where we know about injury news in advance, like we knew Devin Bush was on a donezo, and then when it becomes official, all of a sudden, people act like

they this was was breaking news. And the line just tears the other way. And what's interesting to me, and this is no one's talking about the fact that Taylor Lewin of the of the Titans is not going to be available, so that that's big to me. Um. So does it scare you that they just had their best performance of the year winning thirty seven? Does that scare you at all? It does not, because this is a battle of undefeated and I don't think they need extra

motivation for this. Does it scare you at all that they have the Ravens on deck? Yes, that scares me more. I'll tell you though, what what what puts me at ease? Though not only the Luan injury. Tennessee Titans and I love the Titans, and I don't want to be I don't want to make the mistake of last postseason when they beat the Patriots and they beat the Ravens by the way, I was on the Titans in those games, so I wasn't one of these people who underestimated them.

But this year the Titans have four of their five wins by six points or fewer. Probably shouldn't have one last week against the Texans. We can get into whether people thought Romeo Cornell was crazy or not for going for to I thought he was um, But they leave the door open in Tennessee wins that Tennessee has had a lot of close calls this year. I just think Pittsburgh is one of the few teams in the NFL this year where we can legitimately say this is a

pretty balanced football team. Their offense and they're finding weapons all the time. No one drafts wide receivers better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. H Chase Claypool getting it done now along with uh with Juju. I think they've they're solid balanced offense, and I think their defense, and in a league where we can't say this about many teams, they've got a solid defense getting plus one and a half. I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I like them this week.

That's my number one pick. My number ones have done sucky too. Let me just point that out. But you're on you're on a hot street. Gil, you started off very poorly and it's been hot lately. So I'm gonna I'm afraid train Todd Wishnepp. Buyer, beware, buyer, beware, be careful. All right, number two, Drew, what's your number two pick? So I'll stay on that game and I'll comment real quickly on the injury stuff because I've noticed it. Two.

We talked about it in the Giants game, the Philadelphia Giants game, and the Devin Bush one was especially crazy because again, anyone who followed that game or read even read the recap like it was mentioned, you know, he cleared pretty clearly towards a c L on that one and uh and was going to be unavailable, So that was surprising. There's probably someone out there who's got some

sort of algorithmic betting going on. When an injury hits the don Best screen, they just paint the board knowing that it's going to move uh, and they're trying to capture some sort of UM, you know, little little incremental value just knowing that the you know that once it hits the screen, it's gonna you know, it's gonna the

number is gonna move or something like that. But because I agree with you, like you saw two weird moves in that game last night or really yesterday all day, somebody very confident in the under and somebody very sure that the Titans should be favorite in that. And so the two combined is basically saying that somehow the market is underrating the Titans defense, and that is crazy to me.

I really really think this is the least impactful unit on the field out of the four UM and you know, in today's NFL where especially in the regular season handicapping, I upweight offense significantly in terms of coming up with a number relative to defense UM and Tennessee is my number one offense right now. Pittsburgh is my number seven offense in the NFL right now. These are two very very competent offenses. And I get when I break down the matchup a little bit, I see Tennessee doing some

very unique things with their wide receiver sets. Art Smith is running an incredibly complex and nuanced passing game, which which is crafted exactly to make Ryan Tannehill as good as he can be. So the fact that Ryan Tannehill has performed at his ceiling over the last half of last year and through five games this year shouldn't shock us because it's it's built for, you know, for him

to succeed. He throws passes along the sidelines eleven or twenty yards down the field very accurately, and that is one of the more important passes you need in order to you know, kind of you know, make those third and long completions. So I think Tennessee is going to be able to move the ball on this one, even against a Pittsburgh defense that I recognized there and my they're my top ten pretty clearly as far as ratings go. Um, but you know, their past defense can be uh can

be picked on. And you know, to your point about Lue being unavailable, it does matter. Luan is one of the best tackles in the league. His replacement is going to be a guy that we've seen played twice already this season. He came in in relief in the Minnesota game, and he came in and relief in the Houston game, and he acquitted himself fairly well. They have. They replaced Conklin on right tackle with a guy named Kelly Uh, and he's played very very well at right tackle so

far this season. It wouldn't shock me to see them flip him to the left so he's protecting Tanehill's blindside. Uh. And then the replacement level player that they have then to fill in on the right tackle doesn't matter quite as much. Um. So I'm not especially worried about tan Hill taking too many sacks in this game. That's probably his one key criticism. You guys hold onto the ball a little bit too long and take too many sacks.

But um, I think I think Tennessee is gonna be able to get into the twenty eight point range here, which then puts the onus on Pittsburgh. Can you go score for score with these guys? Uh? And they have a fully healthy offensive line coming back here, we're gonna see David de Castro finally. Really, the whole offensive line is playing great and they're now adding pieces back, of

healthy pieces back. Similarly, with the wide receiving corps, they have literally you know, four wide receiver, one wide receiver, two's that is an embarrassment of riches in today's NFL. So they're gonna be able to move the ball and do a lot of damage against the Tennessee defense that I don't have a ton of respect for. So I think this is gonna be an old fashioned shootout. Uh. And I'll take over fifty and a half any day of the week over fifty and a half from Drew.

I didn't know if that was gonna end up as a best bet, but it is over fifty and a half. Can we also shout out Mike for Abel for a second. We talked about on a Numbers game, but the movie he pulled. I talked about it all last year and the year before, how there used to be this loophole

in the NFL rules bill. Belichick used to exploit it all the time where if you had more than five minutes left in a football game and you were nursing a lead, you could keep taking delay of game calls and they would start and they would keep winding the clock up. And it was this great loophole that Belichick

used to explain. And then the playoffs last year, Rabel did it against his teacher Belichick, and Belichick went crazy, and that was the first sign of Wow, Mike Vrabel is on this level in this game theory, win probability level that other coaches aren't. He's in that Belichick category. And then after Romeo, Before Romeo, Cornell decided to go for two up seven thirty six to twenty nine when it was thirty to twenty nine. This past week, Ryan

Tannehill had just thrown a pick. Houston had the ball second and one at the Titans twenty five with three forty nine remaining in the game. Second and one, and Vrabel throws Jonathan Joseph out there on the field, and John Joseph is looking back at Rabel like, I don't think I should be out here's off guy on the field. And Rabel's like, no, no no, no, you're good. You just stay out there, Just stay out there. You're fine. And

they get flagged. And what that did was it a It gave the Texans a first down and more importantly, stopped the clock, whereas it would have kept running and they would have had two plays to gain one yard. So they're likely to get the first down anyway. So Rabel said, I'll give you the first down, but I'm gonna save myself forty seconds by intentionally doing a twelve minute on the field. They needed that forty seconds to come back and tie the game after Crinell decided to

go for two up seven and they failed. Unbelievable. Unbelievable coaching moved by Rabel and I'll shout out to your boss Derek Stevens for noticing that as well. By the way, can can I just say something about that game? Mike? Did you want to go first? Go ahead? Mike, No, He's fine, sure, Mike. Now what I wanted to say is I, first of all, I couldn't agree with you more about that. I love it when these coaches get it mathematically. It's fantastic. So there's nothing to be said there.

But the one thing I do want to say is I think people miss the entire point of the analysis about Romeo Cornell going for two here, and this is they never you never hear this, And I don't know, I'm sure you you're going to agree with me. But really the question is is do you think you can score two more often than they would get a two on you? Because in the end, if you just kicked the extra point, you go up by eight. Now the question is you've got to stop them from getting it

two to tie the game later. So I think it. I never hear them say it's really a question of who's two point? Do you have more confidence in your defense to stop it or your offense to get it, Because that's really kind of what the question is true. What was your thoughts on that they're one and four, they have nothing to lose, Go for two, don't go for two. I don't think it matters the one way or the other. Romeo Carnell is not getting another head

coaching jab in the NFL. His players probably probably wanted to inject them with a little bit of confidence. Um, so you know, saying, hey, you guys, I believe in you. Guys. You can go get this. You can do it. If it works out, you win the locker room, maybe you go on a little run. Everybody feels good. If you don't, you know, you can still hopefully stop them, and you know, it's it's it's not really like the Texans are going to be in the playoff picture. So this season it's

a lost season. You just want to you know. Yeah, and Todd, what you were saying is if if Romeo Crill and we're giving him credit here for this, because I don't know if he made this assessment. But what you're saying is if Romeo Criddell made the assessment that his conversion rate on a two point play was going to exceed the titans ability conversion rate against their defense,

then it was the proper play. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, which I never hear anybody talking about, because that's really what this all comes down to, because if they kicked the extra point, now you're defending it too. If they get the touchdown, if they don't, if if he goes for the two, right, it's the opposite right, So that that's I never hear them talk about that portion of it.

They always talk about the part of whether Romeo should have gone for two because you know, it puts it out of reach in the mathematics of whether you win more when you're up by nine or whether you win more by going to overtime up by seven. You know that whole thing. I just never hear them talk about the other part of it, which is you're forcing the other team to go for two also, which is you

know what I mean, that's the other side of it. Well, that's uh, yeah, I mean, my thing is, and you'll see analytics charts that will tell you that it's not the wrong thing to do, right, My My whole thing is, you're still if you kick the extra point, you go up eight, and you force them to perform two events get down the field. Okay, that's gonna happen in both cases.

But then also have to convert the two point conversion, and things happen on place right, So your ability to kick the extra point, you know, the expected point value of that is close to one, right, it's point nine, whatever it is. But things happen on two point conversions, right, there's a reason that they expected point value is about the same. But they convert fifty of the time. So

the question is, did Romeo Crenell make the assessment? Well, they have, Derek Riso, let's go for two now, like we're giving if we give him the credit that he thought it through, that's one thing I just don't know if he did. I'm just talking about you. So let me let me say I've been waiting very patient. One. Mike Vrabel's wife is a good friend of mine, Jen Boland. She was a year behind me in high school. All State volleyball players. She got a scholarship to Ohio State.

That's where they met, and they have wonderful families. So great. Two I had as one of my bets and in real life as well one of my podcast bets, Texans plus three and a half. I could see this scenario coming. I was hoping they'd stopped him at the goal line and kicked the field goal obviously and lose by three when they scored. I'm sitting here at this table on Sunday saying, I hope Romeo Cronal goes for two. And

the reason is what Todd cited. If Tennessee comes down and scores, they can't stop Derrick Henry from two yards out, which was evidenced by and over and over time. They directly snapped it to him from the five and he just walked right into the air. He leaned his way five yards to win the game. I agree with Todd. The assessment is, what do you think your defense his chances are stopping the two? Whether you should go for two? And I thought it was the right decision. Do you

think Romeo Crenell made that assessment? Um? I think he might have, but I I believe he might he might have as well. I can't. Everyone just walked into the build, slow jamming with Vinny Todd, wish neev. Look at that puss on the screen that we got here. What to wish? I miss you. We can't. We can't hear you sit the US Tennis Center in Pittsburgh. We can't hear Vinnie. But just know that it's in a slow jam voice.

Just know, um, Yeah, it's interesting, you know. I think it's one of those you know, I wasn't talking about whether Romeo cren had thought that through. I was just saying that a good coach, they don't talk about the other side of of the coin. They just they just analyzed the first part of it. It's a it's a It's the same thing they do with the the you know, the statistics. I was talking about this last night with Brad.

You know, people go, oh, well, their fourteenth that gets the past and against the run and blah blah blah. But they don't talk about who they play, which, which in the NFL is gigantic because you know, you have six percent of your season is one game. Let's that's let's put it this way. My thing about it is I think there's I think reasonable minds can disagree on this, right Like I think I think there's a side to

each part here. Unlike say the Eagles attempting a fifty seven yard field goal up to with three forty nine left in the game against Pittsburgh, I don't think reasonable minds can disagree on that. Like I just Gruten screwed me when Gruten screwed me with that long field goal against New Orleans, which was also even though it worked out for him, it was not the right play. Remember

early in the season we had that old discussion. But like the like Doug Peterson saying, you know what, we're gonna kick a fifty seven yard or at Hines Field. That's the key point Hines Field. And then even if we make it, they got all the time in the world to just kick a field goal themselves. Like that's not by the way they fil Hines is not if before Hines was like the worst field of all time, it's not. It's still bad, but it's not as bad

as it used to be. Just just for everyone to know what stadiums are tougher to kick in Todd, since you're gonna make that assertion saying I'm not saying one second, I'm not saying hines Field is not still bad. It's that it's just alight. It used to be horrendous. What did they do? They they erected buildings all around it to make it easier to kick in. Well, now they have the River's Casino is next door. So they took some of those five dollar chips and they put it

down to tamp down the turf. That's a big fact. Todd's like, have you ever kicked at the old vent in Philadelphia? All right? Where are we all the way? Okay, so we've heard we've heard Drew give two picks under fifty six in Seattle, Arizona over fifty and a half in Pittsburgh, Tennessee. Me, you and Mike have given one pick each, so you can decide who you want to go next for the second pick. Oh, Mike, you haven't

given two to your second. Then I copied Drew which is which is over fifty and a half Tennessee, And I just I almost made that my number one. I think this Tennessee is very talented offensively, which in a little bit covers up their their liabilities on defense. And Pittsburgh's gonna score twenty eight about against anybody. So I just think this game might played in the sixties. Um. I also tend to think that your pick of Pittsburgh is the right side in this game, but I'm not

betting on that. But I would agree with Pittsburgh, I just because I think they could probably make Tannehill a little bit one dimensional, which they did to Baker Mayfield and exposed him. So yeah, over fifty and a half Todd number two. My second pick is gonna be okay. I'm gonna go back to the well and I always get this team wrong. I'm always one week earlier, one week late with them, but I'm gonna try it again.

I'm going back with the Raiders, the Las Vegas Raiders, my hometown, plus the three and a half against Tampa Bay. I like going against teams that looked amazing on national television. When the NFL gives us only one or two games to watch, they say, oh, you have to watch Tampa Brady against uh Aaron Rodgers, and then we you know, whips all everyone intend nothing, and then all of a sudden it's thirty eight ten the other way, and Tampa Bay is not as good as they looked in that

football game. Do we remember the week before when Tom Brady couldn't remember what down it was against the Chicago Bears in a ridiculous game. I think Tampa is a good team. I'm not saying they're not a good team. But the Raiders had a good game plan against Kansas City and they won the game. I mean, I'm shocked that they won the game, but they actually won the game. Earlier in the season, they pulled off a nice win against the Saints. This this Raiders team, you know, I

gotta give Groom some credit. I think he's not that bad and he's turning things around with this football team. And I think that Vegas they might not be able to win the game. But at home, I'm getting three and a half. I'm going against the team that just had an incredible performance the week before that everybody watched. I got a bye week to sit at home, decide what to do, dodge the bullets on the Las Vegas Strip and somehow come up with a plus three and

a half. Give me the Las Vegas Raiders plus the three, and God wish them. Not an evangelical guy for the Vegas tourism to wherever you're gonna say something, Drew, Yeah, this was on my list of best bets. But and it's not good. Have you been following what's going on with the Raiders offensive linetop COVID outbreak, my friend, Oh, don't tell me that I got good. Yeah, I was not good. My My choice of my number two pick was either between Arizona plus three and a half or

Tampa Bay minus three and a half. And because Todd has said this now, just to create some conflict, I'm going on Tampa Bay. Uh, Tampa Bay. You guys might need a backup picks though, because not I'm not a h sure they played this game. Yeah, so so why do you Drew hold on? Hold on the time. We're gonna let you get off the game. And I'd like

Drew to expound on that. Yes, well, obviously Rob Manfred wanted the World Series time window auto himself, and so he sent us a spy and just infected Trent Brown. And Trent Brown has now spread it all across the Raiders offensive line, so that the prime time slot is a wide open for the World Series on Sunday night. Um, but not not not in seriousness, In seriousness, Trent Brown, uh was at some point in thereby he contracted COVID. He showed up for the teams team facilities on Tuesday.

He's hanging out with the whole offensive line. He's hanging out with some of the other reserve players. They have a second positive test in cornerback are Net, which is not a great sign. They've sent the offensive line home now two days in a row because they're just waiting for confirmation that they either have it or don't. I would be surprised if they are not. You know that that the Raiders in general, you know, they've been known to have a little bit lax in terms of the

protocols that they're following. Um, so it's it's I'm a little, you know, a little, a little concerned that they that this ends up being across the entire offensive line, and um you know, there's enough players that the NFL gives them some leeway and either you know, postpones or or or cancels the game. Okay, well I'm getting off that. Then can I pick Can I pick a What would happen with Mikey? I wanted to discuss with Gil. I didn't want to just make the decision that you could,

you know, give another pick. I wanted Gil to agree with that, and he does. He has pick another a different game, Todd. That's a that pick is off the board for this contest week for for these purposes because of the the Bras offensive lineman situation. Yo, well you could you give your second pick, Gil, and I'll come up with a new new second pick. But did you have a third pick? Yeah, I do have your third pick. Slide up into your second pick. I'll slide my pickup

Mike down. They could deep breath. I'm gonna go with Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns over the total. Uh. Cincinnati has been moving the ball with the the the uh, the the second coming Joe Burrow. Everybody loves Joe Burrow. He's so fantastic Joe Burrow. And I think he's pretty good. I actually do think he's pretty good. Uh. Their defense is not that stellar, showing by the fact that they were up twenty one nothing against Philip Rivers and couldn't

couldn't close the door. Uh. Cleveland scored thirty five on them. Uh the last time these two teams played. Conversely, Cleveland's defense is nothing special. I think they're more of an offensive football team. Um, you know they didn't show it in Pittsburgh last week. That's for shure. Baker Mayfield maybe because of his injury, uh, you know, couldn't do anything. But the other thing is, remember Baker Mayfield can throw

you a pick six. And I was said this last week when I took up and he actually throw the pick six, So you know he could be like a Jamis Winston kind of guy to help you with pick six is for your overs um. Cincinnati, the other than the game they played against the Ravens and the first week of the season against the Chargers, has moved the ball. You know, thirty points against Cleveland, twenty three against Philadelphia. They had thirty three against Jacksonville and twenty seven last week.

So I think Cincinnati is going to be able to move the ball. I don't see them stopping Cleveland's offense. Give me over fifty and a half. Um, you know that'll be my second pick instead of my my Raiders. Over fifty and a half Cleveland Cincinnati. I like that one. I like that one a lot. Um all right, so I was gonna be appo you Todd, you can go off. No, no, no, but it's a Tampa Bay Las Vegas games, so I'm not gonna play. I think I think that's actually off

the board even at CIRCA. Yeah, yes it is. It is. It is off the board at Circa, Drew, because we were worried that this game wouldn't be played this week. Yeah, I'd say it's like um, Arizona was the I'll revert to guessing lines. Arizona was the line that I thought was the rangest headed into guessing lines on Monday, So I'll stick with that. I'll elevate that to number three, even though I don't love it because Drew said Jamal

Adams is coming back, and uh, that's never fun. But as much as I hate fading Russell Wilson, I like the idea of having Kyler Murray in my back pocket. Um, and Arizona plus three and a half, that's your pick, Yes, that is my pick. Arizona plus three and a half is my pick. Um. I don't think they were as good as the final score indicates on Monday night. I really don't. But I do think Arizona is a team that will play up to their competition as well. Um,

don't ask me why I feel that way. I just kind of do in Seattle, Like Tennessee, Seattle is one of these teams they put the cape on Russell Wilson. He gets them out of jams. Uh. They shouldn't have beaten Minnesota that they did. Um, But I like Arizona. Give me three in the hook, which is what it is right now, and I thought this would come down to three. It has not. I'm going to take the Arizona Cardinals three and a half on not a whole bunch of reasoning other than I can't pick the Tampa

Bay Las Vegas games. So I'm pumping it up to number three. I'm not sure I'm betting this game quite frankly, but that would be my third pick here. So let's elevate Philadelphia to Arizona becomes my three. So both Drew and I are done now with our picks. By the way, so Eagles is minus four and a half. Yeah, and then Carter plus three and a half. Yeah. Alright, Mike your final pick. Um. I went with the same game as Todd, but I took the over between the Bengals

and the Browns. I just love betting these Browns over. Um. But I thought you took Cincinnati. No, no, I go over fifty and a half. Oh, well that's the same pick. Then, Sorry, I thought you were. You were talking picks six and I said Bengals Browns. I thought you took Cincinnati. I did. I did because I heard him talking about Mayfield. Pick six is yeah, you make it good help look, and I tried. I tried to get cute and because of Philip Rivers and went under with the Colts Bengals game

last week that that had no shot. It almost went over in the first half. You know, the kid is a pretty good quarterback, Burrow, and they're going to move the ball, and the Brown's defense is not that good. And at the same time their defense isn't going to stop the run. May Field is going to be able to move the ball, So this is probably a shootout. I thought you did, take sense because I like kind of like Cincinnati a little bit too to maybe win this game at home. Um, but over fifty and half

is my third pick. They're gonna cover a lot of games, they really will. Yeah, I think so. I think it was an aberration the game in Baltimore. Yeah, there's one thing I think to keep an eye on with Cincinnati, and that's what's going on with some of the veterans on that team. Um, there's a little whiff of we want out of here. Uh. You know, guys like Geno Atkins, guys like Dunlap getting practice days off, you know, without and you know, not based on injury. Um, seems like

they may be shopping them around behind the scenes. Uh, to send those guys out of there. That doesn't necessarily change the handicap at all. I look back, I love the over. I like the Browns team total over the

this week specially, Um, but there is there for sure. Um, you could see a surprise scratch on someone like a J. Green, Um, you know he you know, it's not unlike what you see with starting pitchers around the trade deadline for baseball, where all of a sudden they're not going to start that guy because they're they're worried he's gonna get you know, they're gonna they don't want to jeopardize the deal by

getting those guys hurt. Um. You know, just keep an eye on some of the veterans for the Bengals, all right, UM, I need that's interesting about the Bengals. The Bengals veterans. It's a little whiff of that Todd your final one, my final pick. This is gonna be my fill in pick. I'm going to take. I'm gonna hold my nose. I'm gonna hold my nose. Anthony Lynn, Anthony Lynn at the opposite.

I'm gonna plus eight against Anthony Lynn. I'm gonna hope for the Lynn factor, and and and and make sure hope Anthony can keep me in the game late and somehow Jacksonville can squeak inside the number. They haven't squeaked inside the number for quite a while now. Minshoe has been you know, horrendous lately, and I'm just thinking, Okay, this might be the game. Remember, these teams have to cover some games. Maybe not the Jets. I was wrong

about the Jets, by the way. I made a point last week about how all the teams at the end are gonna be either six and ten, seven and nine, nine and seven, or eight and eight against the spread, and I'm correct about that. There is always the outlier team like the Jets that ends up three and thirteen against the spread, and that's probably it's gonna happen this week, this this year. But I don't see Jacksonville, as you know in the Jets world of that bad. So I

think Jacksonville's got to get some spread wins. And why not against the team like Anthony Lynn, who loves they'll let you hang around. I could totally see them being up fourteen late and him just running the ball late in third quarter to try to punt it back and give Jacksonville chance to give me the back door. Anthony Lynn is who you want to be against when you

have the back door. You know you don't want him in another situation where it's a tight game or something like that, well you might want to go against him there too, because you know everything's gonna go wrong in his world. But this is a perfect scenario where I could see Jacksonville coming in the back door and losing by you know, seven or eight or something like that. So give me Jacksonville plus the eight against the Anthony Lenz.

And isn't it amazing if if if to Rod Taylor hadn't had his lung puncture by the team doctor, we still would never have probably seen justin Herbert, that guy's the m v P of the table the Chargers. He's gotta be Yeah, would you would you play Tua at ten to one or better for Rookie of the Year's site unseen right now, though, would you play ta? I would? Why not? Drew and I were on the air at

Visa when the Todd obviously wasn't listening. Yeah, we were on the air Tod Todd doesn't listen on Wednesdays specifically so soon. But but Tuesday, Drew and I when the news came down, I was admittedly surprised. Um, but you know we saw it both ways. I guess Drew right, Yeah, I mean from an organization standpoint, it's it's you know, you have to evaluate this kid. You absolutely have to.

You only have a you have a three year window to evaluate your rookie quarterback to understand if he is the guy that you were going to war with in

the future. And they have so much draft capital in draft, they need to know even sooner because this is going to be one of their last chances because you know they have so much draft capital at the behest of the Houston Texans in addition to their own that if two us not right physically, if he doesn't have the game for the NFL, they need to be able to package those picks and move up and get another guy,

not unlike what we saw with the Cardinals. So you know, I think they know that they're on the clock and that they have a short window to do this evaluation. And you know, Ryan Fitzpatrick may be good enough to get you into the playoffs, but in a year where you're not even really selling tickets and who knows when you're really going to be able to celtickets again, what good is it just to get some wins and inspire

the fan base. And you know, I think the dynamics have changed a little bit and the and the organization is being a little bit more aggressive, and it's just in terms of you know, hey, we want to win a title. We need to know as soon as possible to as the guy. And the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick was winning I think is probably um it was never part of their decision making, right. They could have been owned five headed owen six heading into their by or six and oh, and I think they were like, look,

he's going to be healthy by that time. We're gonna have two weeks of prep, uh, you know with our buy and that's when we're making the move one way or the other. It seems like they didn't communicate that to Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's the interesting thing, right, which can I give the other side of this? I agree with everything you just said, but that being said, the end of the a f C East is not that good

at division, folks. And Ryan Fitzpatrick, while he hasn't had his blow up game, and I'm sure it's coming somewhere down the road, he's been pretty good. And why not just from a human stand I'm sad for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Drew is probably right in the long term. You're not going anywhere with with Fitzpatrick. But it's not like the NFC East is any good this year. Why not have a little story book season for a certain team that I know I forgot. I kind of like their song.

It goes a little bit like this, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphin. The Mr Fitzpatrick deserves better than this. I know to us gonna be great. I know too, U was gonna be great. But his parents can't even come to the game this year. Wow, you hit the high eff once again. Nicely done, Todd Um. I think all these things are true, right, Like it was surprising because of all the reasons you stay Todd because they're in it there ahead of the Patriots. The Bills just lost again, so hey, you can get

the division is there. But then everything drew saying and I think specifically they don't care what the record was. Apparently, I think this was pre planning, and it's surprising. I don't know if the surprising thing, but the interesting thing has been Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't taken it that well. He's like, this is a heartbreaking. He didn't see it coming, so and I feel bad for him. Don't you feel bad for I? Do? I do? Uh? Not that it matters to the Dolphins, I guess, but I feel bad, you know,

I don't know. I have the only bets I made before the season started, where Patriots underseason wins, Dolphins overseason wins six, and the Dolphins at eleven one eleven to one to win the division. So I don't know how I feel about it, but I would I would consider a bet on two of a rookie of the year,

just because the number is what it is. Burrow and Herbert can't win their divisions, two of might be able to in the same way that I would consider a bet on Justin Fields to win the Heisman at six to one site unseen because I get it's Trevor Lawrence is to lose, but I don't know. I'll take a flyer on Justin Fields. Can they just wait for for three or four weeks till Fitzpatrick starts throwing two interceptions plus the game and then they go by. But they had to buy way, I get it. I I get

what Drew saying. I just if you're a Dolphins fan, is this exciting for you to get to see two? Yes, they love this. It's the fan base energized by this. First of all, we all love the kid, right well, he's injury prone. I didn't you know he can't stay on him his own way. Need to find out if you can play a full season like you really like? You need to give him ten games? Can you stay on the field for ten games? You need to know? All right, let's let's wrap it up with the final

three questions. Um. First of all, the first one is your your favorite teaser leg, your favorite your favorite two team or two leg two team rather teaser six point teaser of the week. We've done very well on these, waue a hell, I messaged something you just for my own purposes. Who you have egos minus four and a half and a half and a half you have and under in the Cardinals fifty six? Right, Okay, I just wanted to clarify. Okay, I don't trust ud. Yeah, but

it's hard to read it sometimes. I mean I go back and look and say, what the hell did he write? Chicken scratch? It's like a pharmacist. It's very good, actually very good. There's all kinds of extraneous lines. It's hard to read, like a pharmacists on Twitter, just to show that you have problems with reading comprehension. Drew's Drew has been kind enough to stay long here. Let's get this. He's got three more podcast today. Alright, uh, Drill will start with you front. I front loaded my week, so

this is the grand finale. Okay, we appreciate it. Your favorite two leg teaser of the week, sir? Okay, Well, one of them is a classic Wong for sure. I am taking the Detroit Lions. I'm gonna tease them from two and a half down to eight and a half. That is a very solid look. In my opinion, I think the Lions probably win this game. Um, and realistically,

I'm not a Mampatrician guy. I'm not a Stafford guy really. UM, but what the Falcons did kind of you know, drump thumping the Minnesota Vikings last week, I thought was you know, that was a motivational high spot for them after firing Dan Quinn. I don't know that they come out and give you the same level of effort and the you know,

the Falcons defense is as bad as we think they are. UM, And realistically the Lions are you know, they are surging to a degree, and off of thereby in the way that they played against the Jags was impressive by thought. So UM, A little nervous that they will somehow screw this up towards the end of the game because they get too conservative when they have the lead. UM, but I definitely think they will be able to get to

to get a lead against the Falcon. So I'll put lines plus two and a half out to eight and a half. This is a standard six pointer we're talking about. UM. Second one, I'm gonna do something a little controversial and I want, actually I'm picking this specifically to make an interesting point to you guys. See what you have any thoughts. UM, I'm gonna tease the Kansas City Chiefs down from ten

two four. And what's interesting kind of doing a little bit of uh, you know, some of the numbers over the last couple of years and this higher you know, we we know that, you know, not just this season, but over the last couple of seasons. Scoring is creeping in the NFL. We know what the longer extra points. That's you know, the conventional wisdom that three is this high frequency landing spot for for NFL margins, it's being

challenged a little bit. And I guess, um, you know, would it surprise you guys know that if you take all of last year's contests and this year's contest, that three is no longer the most common final score margins. It's seven last year and it's still seven. We have seven is creeping up in frequency to twelve percent. Twelve percent is that? And you know, and three is down from right used to be right? Uh, three used to

be fifteen and three is down to ten. Yeah, three, three has fallen from from fifteen to ten, and seven is surging up to twelve um. And honestly eight is surging as well. Five percent of games now land on eight UM. Realistically, what This is just kind of all breaks down to, is there's sort of a secondary Wong zone in in the in the U ten nine eight range and teasing some of the heavier favorites. Is you

know it's been you know, almost as profitable. You get like thirty eight sent win probability crossing seven six five four three, um, and you get about thirty one percent win probability crossing ten seven six five Now, so it's uh, it's it's an interesting little uh great point. Interesting. Yeah, do you want better nine and a half to three and a half. Yeah, because it's so we got to move it down to three and a hit. It's not only is there one night and we do it by consensus.

Consensus is nine and a half right now, So yeah, not, it's even better, even better because four is a five point mark. Five percent of games land on four, so it's perfect. It's a great point. Drew so from from the three being the most common last year, it shifted and right now you're seeing twelve percent of outcomes are seven and only ten percent or three. Now incredible. I

never thought it's yet. Yeah, And that's incredible that it went from fifteen to ten percent on threes, right, because that means that means a full one third of the games that used to land on three are no longer landing on three. That it's pretty wild. Yeah, Mikey, I used I used the Lions as well up through the seven eight. I didn't expect that, by the way, why, I don't know. I just didn't expect it about the Lions.

I don't know. The Lions are a little bit of an enigma just because Atlanta is so volatile in their story. But their their defense is awful. Atlanta's defense is all I mean, it takes like a Kirk Cousins a special level of an apt for them to win. And so I think that the Lions will. I mean, this will be another high scoring game, the total set that way, but I just don't think that they're beaten by by ten.

And then my other one is I'm gonna hold my nine nose and um, just because I don't love anything else that take take Anthony Lynne down under the three to two. Yeah, Unfortunately, I have the exact same thing with with Mikey as the But the thing is now that I have Jacksonville plus eight, I don't really want to root for you know for them to win exactly between two and eight. So you know what, all switch my l A Chargers as my second leg. I have Detroit plus eight and a half too. I like Detroit.

I think it's hard for at Landed to win by a lot of points because their defense isn't that good and Detroit actually has been sneaky better than people think. Think about this. Have they win that game that they should have won against the Bears. They're not. They've got three wins. They're not even that bad Detroit. So you know, I'll take Detroit plus eight and a half, and you know what I'll switched to. I'm gonna hold my nose and take the Rams. I don't really like the Rams.

I don't really like their quarterback. But I mean, come on, the Bears just gonna do this every single week for the rest of time. I don't think so, you know, I just I like their defense. I think it's great, But I don't know, I just don't think they're they're as good as everyone's making them out to be. Give me the Rams to just win the game, all right. I'm holding my breath. I'm taking the Chargers on one end down to one and a half. God help me. No,

it's two. Uh not according to my board, it's not. It's one and a half. But okay, okay, fine, we'll give you the one half and then I mean, Mikey, the one and a half to and you way uh. And I'm gonna take the Pittsburgh Steelers. But am I getting into seven or seven and a half? Just a seven? Right? Yeah, just a seven. But that's who I'm gonna take. So there's charges in Pittsburgh for me. Um, before we do

the fund, what's that? Because seven was pretty common. Pushes loose if you don't know, if you go to your correct places, a push is actually a re refund correct, So we're going with that. Yes, pushes don't lose, okay, alright, because you can shop. You can shop for that in the market. So we have to you know, it's all about you should know your rules, Mikey. That's what people tell me. People say it's people say it's an obscure rule.

It's rule number one. All right. Before we do the final two questions, Drew, do you do survivor or no? I'm out? Okay, So that it's me and Todd. He had the patriots to that, so it's only me I'm taking. So I'm happy. This is proof that has Chev doesn't hate you. Ty. That's right, the same thing. Maybe my whole season is going to turn around. Now, Okay, I haven't. I didn't do a grid for the season because I'll tell you who you've used so far. You want to

know who you use in the second entry? No, you don't want to please tell the people your second entry. So far, you've used Tennessee, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, Pampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona and Miami Dolphins. So who are you going to take? I'm taking I'm taking the Buffalo Bills against the Jets. I I'm lucky to have them,

so I will play them. A lot of people don't have them left this week, and I'll play them, and I know what's Sam Donald and you know, Okay, I'll take Buffalo and I'll let other people squirm not having Buffalo. I haven't gritted out the season. I don't until this week because I just don't think in the year of COVID it does you a lot of good. You gotta do this week by week almost this year, you know, I think a lot of people will use the Eagles

tonight and their survivor. Don't some people will some people will use the Eagles tonight. I thought about it, but you know what, there's there's fewer opportunities to play the Bills later than there are the Eagles. Actually, so I'm taking the Buffalo Bills. Final two questions of the big favorites on the board, who do you think is the most likely to lose? Out right? Otherwise known as sort

of your money line parlay buster? Is it the Buffalo Bills twelve and a half point favorites at the New York Jets New Orleans seven and a half point favorites hosting the Carolina Panthers, the Chiefs nine and a half point favorites host excuse me? At Denver or the Chargers nine point favorite seven and a half point favorites, pardon me? Hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think we know where this is going, Drew, who is the most likely to lose out right? I'm gonna say it's the Saints. I liked.

I like Todd's Carolina plus seven and a half pick. I'm on that as well this week. Um, And realistically, it's just I've downgraded the Saints passing defense pretty substantially. It's based on performance. And I come, I am wide await, wide open, eyes, wide open, aware of the fact that the Saints always treat the beginning part of the season as an extended preseason. They don't really try to come out and just light the world on the world on fire weeks one through four. But it doesn't change the

fact that players like Marshawn Lattimore, Marcus Williams. I thought these guys were up and coming superstars as far as secondary defensive players go, and they are really performing poorly so far this season. They are giving up many, many, many yards through the air. And we have a Carolina Panthers team that is getting it done with DJ More and Robbie Anderson in a dynamic passing attack under Joe Brady that is impressing me. Um. So, I think this is going to be a tight contest, and I can

see I could see the Carolina coming out victorious. How good is Robbie Anderson by the way? So good? Ah, that's an interesting pick. You know. At the same time that I that I teased the Chargers down to two, I can still see them losing this team. So I'm gonna use the chargers. I'm the chargers because it's the chargers. No explanation necessary. I just it's just they terrify me. You've come around lot on Anthony Lynn. You were a big Anthony Lynne defender for quite a while. You were no.

Your buddy thinks I was an Anthony Lynne defender. I was never an Anthony Lynn defender. I thought I thought that you were. I he just is upset when Anthony Lynn walks into a room and I'm like, let the man walk into the room. Well, that's it's it's that's he's a sycophantic friend, a sycophantic fan. He's sycophantic in general. Is that your word for the week? Are you learning? You get that email every day with the word of the day. That's my word of the week, Mike, and

it's very app here's another word for you, app for you? Alright, Todd, who's the most likely lose that right? Of those? I'm Withdrew, I think it's the New Orleans Saints. I think they're not the Old New Orleans Saints. Caroline is okay. I could totally see them pulling the shocker. Final quoto by way, your Arsenal game went terribly well. I had it set up because I had under two and a half over one and a half, so I blew some juice. But I had it set up at two to hit the

middle two to one late our top. Okay, last question. We live in a bizarro world. We're forced we live in this world. We're forced to bet aside on every single game in the National Football League. Their fourteen scheduled. Now, let's throw out the Tampa Bay game. Let's call it thirteen games. But you're allowed one free pass one game. You want no part of, Drew. You might have hinted at your game earlier, what is it? I would actually, well, man, this is awfully tough. I want nothing to do with

so many of these games. Uh, I guess I'll do a Dallas Washington football team. That was mine. Dallas Washington want no part of it, none, Mikey, that's mine. Yeah, you know, And I've the last four weeks my best bet has been against Dallas. You know, I've just can't but they can't move the ball, I mean, even the

horrible defense. If they have a team that's not even a professional passing offense, Washington, I would still if I had to pick a take the football team, because their defense at least a semblance of something, and this talents team is just you have no idea how bad they are. They were god awful with that, and then now Dalt comes in and everybody picked him on mind. I didn't get that. I mean, they downgraded the most important position and all of a sudden they were the chip pick

last week. But I don't know Washington, I don't know if they can score. I agree with Drew sentiment though. These games are so difficult to get to have five picks a week, let alone three. And then when we do this exercise, like what do you want no part of what? I can give you a ten of these, but the one of the ten is Dallas Washington of all of them, Todd I, I also don't want any part of the green Bay game because I don't know what you're going to get out of green Bay this

week after that ridiculous performance. And who knows what's going on with Houston. I mean, they're one in five, but they're not really a one in five team. They're not that bad, and you know, who knows what's going to happen in that okay, uh for Mike Palm, Thank you Mike. We love the D. Thank you for having us here at the D. I'd like to get I say something

please In conclusion, well, we always give our survivor. They usually at the beginning, I was gonna say, I was about to say three three, right, we're down to three fifty three. We had four ten last week. Fifty one got knocked out with the Patriots. Five got knocked out with the Vikings. But again the amazing thing, yet another week one entry failed to be submitted. So I want us to put up a prop what's the last week

that that an entry will fail to be submitted? I mean, what are we gonna put up twelve and a half. I don't know. Every single week somebody doesn't get their picking, can I can? I be honest with you. I waited till I forgot till eleven thirty on Saturday morning. I was like, oh, three and a half hours, no problem. No, it was been a panic though for a minute. Uh three fifty three. There's a profit DraftKings seven and a half season wins for the team that wins the NFC East,

and the under is plus money. You gotta take the under there right seven and a half, I would take the under two. Okay for Mike Palm, vice President of Operations and Circuits Sports, UH and Derek Stephen's conciliary. Thank you to everybody at the d who has been so hospitable. Hopefully started circle next week. Well we're going to We probably should iron out all the technical difficult when you're over there for your tour today. It's the radio booth

area on top of the top of it. If God, I know, I don't know, the studio won't be being used at that time either. If that's the other alternative. Todd Wishnev and his mother's attic and his mother's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Uh. Nice cork is great installation,

I'm told. And Drew Dinsick UH kind enough to join me twice this week, but the first time ever on the megapod here at the Beating the Book Megapod, the host of the Deep Dive podcast with his buddy Andy Molitor, UH wrote a world and of course UH point spread weekly at visa as well. Thank you, Drew, appreciate it. Sorry it took we we went over, but we appreciate the time. Sir, that was a pleasure. Thank you guys

for having me. Best of luck on week seven. Yes to everybody, best of luck with all your football picks. Thank you so much for listening to the megapod. Thank you all, Thanks Drew, thank you Late Shops. Back dog to BA dog Dog