Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 3 Preview

we'll have a crowd at ten am at circa. Oh at circa. Yes, it's Mike Palm. Everybody, how you doing? My great And I'm so happy that Todd uh found town found time to join us this week. Thank you Todd, Thank you Todd wish Now I won't respond to the verbal Dave Schultz. If everybody remembers the cheap shot artist of the NHL, Dave Schultz, there's the verbal cheap shot artist, Mikey Palm, who was almost as bad as Dave Schultz of the National Hockey League. Since he loves hockey, I

gave him a hockey example. Now I happened to miss last week's episode because I didn't realize that we had a set time yet for this season. I'm sure Gilly Ice will call me on that and pretend that somehow there was actually a set time when last week it was all over the place. But whatever, I will be. Um, you know, a martyr in this situation, and I'm here to give you just winning kids. Todd, that was just the intro. We have a lot to get to, but

thank you for that. Uh. We usually have a rotating guest. I feel bad even calling this guy a rotating guest because it is upon his shoulders that this megapod was built. But we are thrilled to have him back as a guest today. Uh. And there was a groundswell of support on Twitter for it as well. I'm getting texts about it. Is he on? Is he on? I can't wait to hear him say these things. Uh, Ladies and gentlemen, you have known him as Vegas Runner in the past. Uh.

He is my buddy, Ace. How you doing Ace, great to have you here. Never better, brother, never better. God bless America. Thanks for having me on. You know this is my favorite besides the fact I was on for so long, so obviously it was my favorite show still is. I listened to you guys all the time. You know, I'm a fan, and obviously Vison who doesn't drive around with that on all the time. So thanks for having me sofully. We give some winners to them, yes, hopefully

we get some winners. And the reason you are not here at the d with Mike and because you're here in Las Vegas explained to folks, you are in a sort of pseudo quarantine. Yes, because I go to the UFC, the Performance Institute and the APEX and do um content for them, do videos and social media hits and their stuff they're doing this week with their pay per view the big card in Albu Dhabi. So I have to

get tested. And since I live here, I don't have to stay at the hotel like a lot of the fighters and staff that come in from out of state do. I'm able to stay at home, but I have to sign a waiver that I will not leave and that I will stay quarantine. So I've been doing that and it's been going well. Remember when, yeah, I remember when you first got the gig. Man, I'm happy for you then, and you're right, you know stay there, uh so that you don't get any of the fighters. Uh positive exactly,

but you are not positive yourself. Just to clarify, you are not positively. No, no, no, thank god. I get tested a couple of times a week, so if anything, it's a it's a luxury because I get to know that I'm I don't have it. A couple of times I woke up for analergies not feeling good. I'm like, oh my god, I hope I didn't catch it, and the unfortunately, you know, I know, I'm getting tested a couple of hours later, so you get the results. Thank god. Well,

I'm pumped to have you here. Man, it's great to see your face. Let's thank you for having Let's do this starting with Thursday night football before we get to our best bets. Maybe this might be somebody's won through three best bets. But it's a Thursday night football game, not exactly like the sexiest matchup there is. But it's Miami and Jacksonville. Miami O and who after losing the Buffalo though covering as a dog, but O and two

in the standings Jacksonville's one in one. They've covered both of their games, could have perhaps one last week, but they got Gaskowski at the end by Tennessee. So Jacksonville after beating uh the Indianapolis Colts week one, their one and one Jacksonville favored by three. ACE. We start with you because you're the guests. That's odd. What do you think anything tell you? Yeah, I tell you when I win, when I lose, and I'll tell you when I placed the bad bet. And I got involved on this game

already at a bad number. I went on thet when I sold this total climb from forty four all the way forty eight. I didn't think he's gonna get much higher than that. I know that the problems on defensive side of the football, I know the injuries on the defensive side of the football, but this is still unprecedented territory for both these teams. Just look back over their last ten plus regular season game. I don't think jackson Bill's had a total above forty seven forty eight maybe once.

I don't think Miami even had that once in their last ten plus regular season games. Um So, for me, I thought it was a case of recency bias and Sharps getting out ahead of the market. We've seen these primetime games flying over to total. The narrative is points even though it's a Thursday night game with less time to prepare, So it looks like I took a bad number.

And I know there's a lot of short money on the over, but I'm on under forty eight here in the totals twenty nine, so you know you may not want to pay you back that one under forty Is that one of your three best bets? Or that just a bet? Because okay, so just the Thursday bet on an undert uh, Todd or Mike anything on this one tonight Mike, Yes, okay, Todd. You first, I'm sorry. I apologize. I said under Mike, and then you're gonna complain that I know. I said sunder Mike, and then I went Mike,

but you jumped in. That's okay, go ahead, what do you say? Look, he can dish, he cannot save. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. I can receive. Just find my friend. I had over a hundred catches last season. Uh, here's the deal. I would like to use one of these. This pick with this game is one of my three picks. I'm gonna go with that's right, folks, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins number one. I'm sorry, since since you've left,

it's gone to hell A, so I'm sorry. Apologize. Go ahead, DoD Miami. I have Miami Dolphins plus the three tonight. I believe they're the type of teams that just hangs around, hanging around, like from Rounders. They just hang around like alligate their blood. This guy, you can't get rid of them. They just hang around in games, and I think they can hang around with the Jacksonville team. They're getting three points, three points in the National Who's Jacksonville? Who's all of

a sudden Jacksonville is good? To me? This is just a toss up game. I'm getting three points. There's probably no home field advantag Jean Jacksonville even when they do have fans, and now that they don't have fans, Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep you in the game. Backdoors always open with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I believe he backdoor for the cover for me last week. And I'm getting three points. I mean,

who's the Jacksonville Jaguars. Miami continues to continue to try every single week, play people tough, even the game they lost to New England. The beginning of the year wasn't a wipe out. They were hanging around in that game. They hung around with a decent Buffalo team last week. White can't to hang around with Jacksonville. Maybe they can even win the game. Give me Miami plus three, Miami plus three, todd one of number one, number two or number three, best bet for you. I'm gonna make it,

uh number two, number two for Toddy, Miami Dolphins. Anything for you to say, no, I'm not gonna play the game, gil Um. I really haven't watched much of Miami this year a little bit because of the two lightning delays. They kind of got a little bit of air time with the one o'clocks against Buffalo last week, But I really don't know a lot about them, And uh, look at this Minster has been pretty good. Yeah, I mean

he really has. They had the ball with three and a half minutes to go with the chance to go down and win that game tied at Tennessee. So um, I just got comfortable with this number laying a whole field goal. Uh, the game was closer to a pick, I would probably lean jackson Bill, but as it is, it's a pass for me. It's passed for me as well. Let's go to the best bets. Ace your number one best bet on the board this week, sir. Not surprisingly,

I like a lot on this week's board. It's week three, so now we have a good enough sample size that there's locks just popping off that board the Sunday night no more value than the New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers. This should be six on a neutral let alone at home in New Orleans. Forget what you saw Monday night with the hundred plus penalty yards and the Raiders with their home opener and allegiance who didn't see

that coming Brad six days before that Monday. Um So, if anything, I think this Green Bay team, Listen, we talked to coming into the season last year they were the most overperforming team based on their analytics. This year they're doing it again right, and we're expecting the regression they're expect. There's they were supposed to be too a

no coming into this game. The thing is they've made it books so easy, scoring forty plus points covering light they have, but it's that a TS differential that sticks out to me. This team is now plus twenty four points. They've outperformed the betting market. They're catching points in New Orleans. They should be catching a lot more. But that's the

only reason it isn't the case. UM. As long as New Orleans is a little more discipline this week, I don't think they're gonna have any problems beating the Green Bay Packers, who, again I just think are an overvalued team. UM, and the regression isn't gonna come. I expect think too. I think most expected it too. And again they are just playing above their ceiling. I think that eventually crashes. No better time than Sunday night foot Bowl in New Orleans.

You have always loved the New Orleans Saints. I know you've been to games there. By the way. One other thing that might help you out here, Davante Adams feeling better, but still too early to tell if he'll play Sunday. Aaron Rodgers number one target for the Green Bay Packers, so ace with New Orleans minus three as his number one pick. Mikey, you're number one. You know My favorite fifteen minutes of the week each week, uh is when Michael Lombardi goes on a numbers game, Because I mean,

Gil is always so well prepared. I mean the questions are pullet and after week one, Gill asked him, isn't this Vikings team a sneaky five and eleven? They might be a sneaky three and thirteen team. This team is god awful. I watched the entire game against the Colts end gaming under. I mean they are how come when they have the ball on their own one they call play action with the seventh step drop every week and get him sacked here. I mean they're terrible. They don't

even want him to pass. The problem is they get behind in the games because there's nobody left on their defense. This is incredible. I think they win three or four games this year. I love that I don't have to lay more than a field goal. They don't get that home field advantage now this year. That's a tremendous Britt talked about it in tremendously intimidating place to play. That's gone. I'll take Tennessee and I'll lay the two and a half.

Is my best bet, Todd. I'm gonna step in here because I, once again Mikey and I have the exact same first best bet. Uh in fact, on guessing lines on Monday with Chris Andrews. When I guess this, I said Tennessee minus four and a half. And when he said it was under three, I was pretty incredulous about that. Uh. Kirk Cousins, I'll take off the glasses carwkite style to read this. Kirk Cousins zero point zero passer rating late into the third quarter last week? Is that good? Zero zero? Uh?

He ended fifteen point nine with an fifteen point nine passer reading. Remember that's out of one fifty eight point three. Little statistical note quirky. The Vikings have actually taken a safety in three straight games. How amazing is that? That's incredible? Going back to last season's regular Cuifinale. But they had a hundred and seventy five total yards of offense last week in their game, there were two of nine on

third downs and usually tom of possession. Typically tom of possession doesn't mean much, but in that game it did. They only had the ball for twenty one minutes and thirty five seconds left. Who they played last week twenty one minutes and thirty five seconds Now Anthony Barr already with the shoulder injury. They've generated no pass rush to speak of their Corners. They're there, guys in their secondary are too young. Give me the Titans. What's the number

on that? What's the official number? Let's see Titans minus two and a half. That is also my first bet, Todd. You know, I looked at that game and I just thought to myself, this smells like the game that everybody's gonna be on. And I've watched too much National Football League football to know there's nothing easy in the world of the National Football League. It looks too easy. And I agree with everything you both said. I couldn't agree

with you more. I think the Vikings stink. In fact, last year I thought the Vikings stunk when Mike loved him in uh in the Visa studio and I had to upgrade him on thinking that Kirk Cousins was actually gonna do something good for them. I never like Kirk Cousins. The Vikings stink. I agree with you guys a thousand percent, but it's too easy. I'm passing on that game instead

going with my best bet. I'm gonna pull up Gilly Alexander's Washington Redskins against the Cleveland Browns over the points. Faked this out. I don't want the Redskins. I mean, I don't want the Washington football team or whatever they call that team. I don't m Haskins. I don't want him. But I do want the over forty five in the game. And here's why I want it. The Cleveland Browns can move the football. They give that ball to Chub, they run right down the field. Washington ain't gonna be able

to stop them. They showed they don't have a decent defense last week against Arizona. I think Cleveland's gonna get your points, and I don't. It wasn't very impressed with Cleveland Browns defense at all. I think the Redskins might get you some Lake garbage touchdowns. Forty five give me the over. The National Football League is a points league this year. It's points points points. Give me the over. Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, alright over forty five for the

Washington football team in the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, Redskins offense has just been terrible. Uh. Front seven is great, but that's the strength of that football team. For the Redskins to win games, they gotta keep the opponent to like seventeen. But you're not playing the side here. Forty five over on that ace. Best bet number two, Sir, I'm gonna go to total bet. Yeah. We took first half end game on this and I'll get this one. Is the second bet at Detroit Arizona over at fifty five. As

long as it's still fifty five, I like that. Yeah, yeah, and the first half I think we got twenty five or twenty five and a half. But anyway to fifty five over is the best bet number two. Um, Like we've seen Detroit defense is just gonna get let up

a lot of points this year. Most expected them to progress and take a step forward, and they just haven't done that, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where Arizona, if anything, this offense is gonna have a ton of success now another season under their belt, with that coaching staff, with a young quarterback. UM, And I think that defense is played well, but it's the offenses they faced. You know, they had a San Fran team

in first first week and then Washington last week. That's not too difficult to keep them to less than twenty points. But I do think Detroit I will be able to get some points on the board even when they lose games. Detroit's capable of scorn like we saw against Dallas last year where they lose by a touchdown, but they put up four of their own, and I think it's gonna

be that kind of season for Detroit. So I'm gonna go overft is my second best bet over fifty five Detroit Arizona, a rematch of their Week one tie last year where where the Lions snatched a tie from the from the jaws of victory. Mikey number two. How come

nobody calls out Matt Stafford, I'm just on ace. I mean, some of the decisions he makes are and nobody says anything well because his coach is so bad that we forget right by the way, before last week's game, thirty three games that Matt Patricia has coached, they have squandered eleven fourth quarter leads, so one out of every three games prior to last week. Just it's just, I mean, at some point, so I wish is gil what is?

Patricia has a big meal at halftime, and he's just not as sharp in the second half, as you can see by his giant belly hangings. That could be We'll look into nothing worse than a reformed tour, I'll tell you that right now. My second pick is gonna be the Denver Broncos getting six points at home to Tampa Bay.

I'm still gonna follow that. I know we lost, this was our only lost last week, Todd taking the nine against Brady with Carolina, But I'm gonna I tell you we were in a position to win that game if they don't break that run when they're trying to run out the clock. First of all, we shouldn't have been in a position to cover. They were being totally dominated down twenty one to nothing, and they turned the ball

over and they got right back in the game. I thought Jeff Driscoll outplayed Roethlisberger in the second half of that game, and it looks like he's an upgrade for the Broncos. There's certainly no drop off. There is not, and Fancio is a defensive coach. They've made both teams work to move the ball that they played. Tennessee had to work to move the ball those games. Pittsburgh had to work. They're lucky to come out of there with the win last week. I just couldn't believe this number

is six. I think that Denver's got a real chance to win this game. It's tough to go to altitude and play. Tom didn't have to do it that many times outside of the playoffs, and the last time he went there, they beat the living hell out of him in the n f C Championship game. I'm gonna take the six with the Broncos at home. Wow. Three things. One elevation not altitude. Thank you, you're welcome. Elevation level, altitude to the ground. Uh, that's the English teacher in

me too. What is this wonderful beverage that you have concocted for me here at the day? Pineapple cranberry mixed. It's no no alcohol to juice, is mixed, very refreshing, many calories put it down. Todd are a weight loss situation. He thinks he's gonna catch me to this morning. I am hot on your heels, my friend to forty eight this morning. I'm going down babies, Trip tells me. That's what it's called the babies. I am going down, but at a snails a glacial pace and a more health

the pace. And we're healthy. Yes, we're a little worried. Todd. It's a little too quick, too much time. I will be taking nutritional information in from my good friend portly Mike Palm. Ever, and the last thing is and and this is just before I get to my second best bet, it's fall baseball. Now. Is there anything better than seeing baseball with shadows on the field when you know the

playoffs are about to happen? There Todd Todd Well, who's the end game betting expert, although he doesn't host a show on MSG, but the shadows in baseball are very important when you're making these end games. Of course, I mean I don't think they're really factored into the line. No, not the algorithm factor in shadows. Excellent point by Michael Palm. Once in a while he does come up with a gem. And it happened yesterday actually in the Angels Padres game.

If you were watching, that's right. I was texting with me about it. Here comes the Shadows, and I we started betting in game under here comes the Shadow. Didn't work out? It did, alright. My second best bed, uh is the Seattle Seahawks. I am laying the five against the Dallas Cowboys. Uh, don't be mesmerized by that onside kick. I know everybody is uh amazed by the Cowboys come back. And it was amazing against the Falcons last week, as they overcome a twenty point deficit from the first quarter

fifteen point deficit late. But that's more of a Falcons thing to me than it is a Cowboys thing. Uh. The Cowboys had three fumbles minus three turnovers. They called two failed fake punts in their own territory, They made an idiotic two point conversion called down nine with under five minutes to play, and then, of course they had the five Falcons watched the spinning top on side kick, mesmerized by it. Um. Here's the thing with the Cowboys defense.

They have forced seven punts in eight quarters of football. Four of those. By the way, we're in what Atlanta might have considered garbage time anyway. No Tyrone Smith, no Lele Collins, no Cam Irving, no Travis Frederick already on the offensive line, Blake Jarwin season ending knee injury, a deep vents that lost their top corner and Byron Jones, no Latent Vanderish, no Shawn Lee, no Anthony Brown cornerback. The defense is allowed points eight times in a nine

or they did allow eight points. Excuse me, the allowed points rather eight times in a nine drive span against the Falcons. They have a total of two sacks and two games against teams with vulnerable offensive lines, and have already allowed seventeen third down conversions on thirty four attempts plus three fourth down conversions. By the way, on as many attempts they got one takeaway thus far against opponents that committed a combined forty nine turnovers last year. Forget it.

I'm taking Russell Williams. I'm giving the points. I know, I know the Russell Wilson rather, I know the I know the Seahawks have have trouble of their defense too, but I will take Russell Wilson and his superman cape and give the five points against that civil the defense. Seattle pick number two, ace number three, Well we have a little. I'm a little. There's a lot of short money on Seattle. That one scares me. I gotta go

with the Denver Broncos. I agree with Mike here Um actually bet him in the first half at three and a half um and took the six. Again, We've talked about it on your show millions of times. With the injured player, I think the drop off just isn't as significant as this line reflects. And although we saw down the stretch. Um, how good uh denver'se quarterback did? The bottom line was the one loss was against a decent past defense. Um. I think driscoll is gonna do just fine.

And catching six points at home to me, is a little too many for this Tampa Bay team that we knew coming in was gonna be the sexy pick. Uh. Anytime you have Tom Brady, you're gonna get action at the betting window, and I think that's what this is a case of. So for me, I like Denver at home. This is a team that's only lost by what seven points? Uh? Both games a combined seven. A lot of randomness and those results they could be just as easily two and oh as oh and two or one and one. So

I think we're getting a little line value there. That's why they're two and oh against the spread. So give me Denver plus the six as my third pick, alright, matching with mikey there on one to Mike, what's your third? I struggled for a third pick this week? You'll really I looked at me. I looked at the Texans getting four from the Steelers. Um, but jeez, I just I can't bet on Bill O'Brien. I just couldn't pull the trigger that that was probably going to be my pick.

That exactly I thought. I kept thinking about what will Bill O'Brien do to screw me? Bill O'Brien last weekend I just interject, did anybody, I mean, I know he went fourth down from his own thirty two? What was he doing? Fourth down, fourth and one at the Houston thirty four? Down three to nothing with two seconds left in the first quarter and four plays later, it's tend to nothing. What in the world was that? And it

kind of got gone playoffs. He wouldn't go forth and inches to try to go up to when he ate to nothing. But he can't do bad. No, no, not on the opponent's thirteen. No way, no way. I have to take it over. I'm an under player. I bet under every sport, and I cannot bet unders in this NFL season because of these points. The crowd noise isn't a factor and all that I tried to find it over. I like, I'm gonna settle on the over in Orchard

Park with the Rams and the Bills. What is it forty six, forty six and a half, where you see, oh, come on, Todd and again with that Okay, Askill, what do you have? I got forty seven. I'm gonna go over. I'm gonna go over forties. So look at Todd and that Ginger Bred House in Pittsburgh. I'm gonna go over Cork, Cork, I'm gonna go over forty seven. Here, I think McBey is it's just maybe the best play caller in football. I wasn't impressed with Buffalo's defense in Miami against Fitzpatrick.

I thought Miami moved the ball in the second half pretty easily and getting as Todd said, getting that back door cover um and the Rams. Look, if you can blow Donaldson, you're going to move the ball in the Rams and the Phillies. Philadelphia came back from big hole and actually had several chances to take the lead in that game. I had to pick it over and I'm gonna take this one. Okay, over forty seven Todd, last one. Okay, I am going to do something. I am going to

hold my nose as I make this pick. I am holding my nose and I'm going to pick the j Okay, let me let me just say I'm that's my third as well. By the way, it's too many points. It looks it we've muted him. Go ahead, Todd, go ahead. I'm sorry the j E t has New York. No. I was just getting to say, no, no, no, go ahead. Too many points. I I agree with this. Okay the Jets are getting now it depends on what who you have? What do you have? Go eleven and a half? Eleven

and a half. Okay, So the Jets are getting eleven and a half points now. Granted they've got absolutely destroyed, except for in the last drive when I needed them not to score because I had them second half under um. They get that ridiculous touchdown at the end, but they look, you know, horrendous. But a lot of teams look horrendous against San Francisco's defense. Obviously. Look, I'm not saying the Jets are a good team. That is not what I'm saying.

I'm saying that maybe they're not that horrendous. And who the hell is Philip Rivers and the Colts to be giving anybody eleven and a half points? Now? We know the Colts are not any like world beaters. Why are you, I mean Indianapolis Colts? I mean, what have you proven to me that you should be laying double digits in

a National Football League game. The Jets, granted they're not good, I'm not saying they are, but eleven and a half points in a National Football League team against a team that is not the worst team you've ever seen in your life, and the culture certainly not the best team you've ever seen in your life. And they have the Philip Rivers factor that can always keep be in the game. You know, they could be up twenty to six, and then he starts, you know, doing stupid interceptions. Who knows

what that guy? You know he's busy. You know he can't remember all his kids names. The bottom line is the Colts do not deserve to be favored by eleven and a half points versus anyone, and that includes the New York Jets. Jes Jet stupid interception. She said, I'm with you, it's too many points, and I and I used that line all the time. The Colts should not

be favored by that many over anybody. Uh. The Jets only had two hundred seventy five total yards of offense last week against the Niners, and one of them was on a big play. I'm most a lot of those was on one big play. Um, so they're not good. I agree with all that, and it is about Philip Rivers. I don't I don't have any problem fading him as a quarterback. But his injuries too. Right. They lost Marlon Mack with an achilles injury the first week of the season.

Last week it was another torn achilles from a leak hooker. Their standout safety, they're uh, they're white out. Paris Campbell's on I R as well. He was carded off with a knee injury. So US are losing players. But give me eleven and a half. This is one of those where it's just I'm turning my brain off. Prove me wrong. Jets. If you can't cover eleven and a half, Adam Gates, if you can't cover eleven and a half, then you know I'm an idiot. But I'll take the eleven and

a half points. Give me the Jets against the Colts team that is good, But you know, I don't know if they're in I don't know if they're great. Let's put it down. So one other thing is teams that get blown out in the National Football League have a tendency to show up the next week. They're all professionals, Thank you, Tug. They are they are all professionals. Very well stated. All right, Uh so those are the three best bets per person. Let us go to should we

do survivor picker teaser? Let's do the teasers right here? Uh to team six point teachers. We all had Atlanta week one, so we all lost. We all had Kansas City last week, and we just got through it. Everybody wins. You know, there was no way you could have lost a team is here last week unless you took the Saints. That's right, that's the only one. You weren't gonna tease the Eagles across the number, right, So I mean what

about aces third play? Gil, we had the Bronco kid, the Broncos, Oh Broncos, my faults stenographer, everybody, he's an alright ace. Uh, your favorite two team six point teaser of the week would be yeah, and but the teaser. For myself, the only way at top times I've ever I ever used a teaser is to tease the number. And obviously you guys have discussed it. I'm sure plenty

of times. Uh. The only ones that really jumped out at me is first, I'm gonna tease Cleveland, they're up to seven, seven and a half and some spots, so we're able to get them down through that set and through that three to add some value. Uh. The other

one I wanted New England. They were at six. I was gonna bring them down to a pick, but now they're at five, and that kind of kills that value on the teaser, because again, if you shouldn't lay more than minus one ten, you should only get six points. And we know if you gotta hit what seventy two point four percent to break even on each leg. So if that six point don't help you do that, there's no reason to use it. You're better off just straight

betting it. So the other one that that I have to do it too would be the Chargers down to minus a half, even though I actually took Carolina at plus seven because some book put up a rope seven and I thought that was a bad number. But again, the only reason I tease is for that purpose, So I'll go Chargers minus a half and uh, Cleveland minus one.

That is the closest thing to your your favorite being on a Stanford long teaser this week, Mike, Yeah, I think you have to use the Browns the Browns is the play that, and then it's a tough week because they're like right, Like I said, the numbers don't make sense for it. It's just the numbers. You may be better off my gun with a dog and teasing it off. I'm gonna O'Brien up to ten. Let's do that. Let's

take Bill O'Brien up to ten. That's my teaser, brown boy, you said that in the way someone just thought of something two seconds ago. Well, I was debating it, but I got affirmation from a So I did it. Todd. My teaser is going to be the Kansas City Chiefs plus nine and a half. Uh, you know, I just think that. You know it's gonna be hard, even if you're the Ravens to beat the Chiefs by nine and a half. They could be down sixteen late and you get the back door touchdown, they go for two, they

lose by eight. You're you're in the inside the number there. So give me the Chiefs plus nine and a half and give me the Los Angeles Rams. I mean, Buffalo is a good team, but they're not exactly a team that usually wins by margin. They're more of a defensive team. Defensive teams have a tendency not to you know, roll up big points on the scoreboard. Plus the Rams can usually move the ball. I'm gonna take the Rams plus eight and a half. I wish I had gone before you.

You stole my thunder Kansas City and the Rams. Yes, I'm taking you think that Washington team can win that, Yes they do. I mean I don't think they will, but I think there's a shot. Give me the Chiefs getting all those points is much more favorable to me getting nine and a half and the Rams catching eight and a half. That is exactly what my two team teaser is now. Survivor. Uh some of us are in the Circus Survivor contests. And by the way, let me just say this. I think I said it last week.

It's all I care about. It really is all I care about. Last week, the first week of the season of the entry pool went by the wayside. Most of those are the hands of the Colts. I had one, I had two entries. One of my entries was going with the Colts. Last week. With the remaining was it five five or something like five? I'm sorry, only four

were eliminated out of eighth five entries, that's impossible. Well, one person took the Eagles, one person took Carolina, but that might have been doing what Derek calls that the double option where you take you use the Carolina and to Tampa Bay, so you make sure to advance. And then two people had to Saint Sun Monday night. That was it. Four. It will never happen again. So Todd, you're the you're the official bookkeeper of the show. On the show, you're the only one alive. But in real

life you're not the only one alive. So are we playing this? Well, here's the thing. I think that folks should realize that I'm not in a contest, which means that I'm probably going to have survivor winners for sixteen straight week. Because Hashem, you know, Hasham out there. She loves to stick it to me. There's nobody who likes to stick it to me more than Asham. Hashem to

the gentiles of the world out there. Yes, Hasham is God in the you know, the Orthodox Jews say Hashem because it just means the name, and you're not allowed to say God's name, so they just say the name Hashem. So me and Gil joke about how the fact that Hashem hates me and he will always find a way to screw me, in fact, sending an earthquake that happened in the middle of the desert to ruin a Las Vegas Aces game that I had to the sticks at halftime.

Have you ever lost a bet because of the an earthquake at halftime of a women's basketball game that you were actually at the game at the MGM. It's never happened in the world. Let me just step in and also say the extent of your neuroses is also when I ruptured my achilles, you viewed it as Hashem hurting you, because, yeah, explain to people, why is that. Well, basically, I was

having such a good time playing Gil tennis. I was kicking his ass all over the pace, beating him straight, beating him against the line, winning money every single day. It was the fantastic, fantastic experience. And of course Ashem said, no, you're having too much fun beating Gilly Ice, and that's it. I'm gonna take it away from you because we don't want you to be happy in this world. Tau pick, what is it? My survivor pick I've already used and by the way, if we're gonna make this normal, we

have to know who I've already used. I've already used the Steelers and the Packers, and this week I will use the football team from Cleveland to just eke out at w for you against the Washington football team. I hate betting on Baker Mayfield, but I think it might be safe this week. Ace. Are you at any survivor pools at all? No? No, did not get into uh the West Gate, I mean the Circle this year, So nah,

don't have any survivor action going. Mikey, I'm not in any and and I'm out right, So am I allowed to make a pick up if you want? Well? No, here's the thing. I have no problem with Mikey making a pick, but we have to give it some conjecture because there's always the issue of people who have already used things. So Mike, maybe you should say, well, probably people have used the X and X Y team. This is who I would take of the remaining teams that

are probably still available to you. Well, I used the Colts and loss, and then I used the Browns last week on Thursday Night. I would use the Cardinals this week against Allions if I was still alive, and that's probably a team people haven't used yet. That one would scare me. I like that, he Mike gives you the proper conjecture, the proper conjectureture, not like I'm using the wrong word. When you're right, you're right. I ask you a point of parliamentary procedure. What about Yahweh? I thought

Yahweh was also God? Yeahwei is a name. It's like an English sized thing for a Hebrew name of God, which you're really not supposed to say. That's why you say Hashem, because you know Hashem is so exalted that you can't say his name out loud. Okay, that's enough. That's good stuff. It's education, he said, it's education. We get that, we get the Nightlife podcast and we get constant learning about the Jewish faith. Mike, why don't you tell us how you feel about the you know, Uh, ice,

ice lakes and Jesus that that's some great stuff. Can I get my survivor pick anybody? Yeah, we're waiting on Gil, thank you. Uh. In my entry that is still alive at at Circle, which I intend to win, by the way, Uh, first week in the one that is alive, I had the Tennessee Titans. Thank you Stephen Gostkowsky for finally making a kick. And then last week I had the Cleveland Browns on a Thursday night, So I am not allowed to use either of those. Um, this is a tough

week because the biggest spread is Cleveland. Okay, I don't listen. The Colts already beat me in the other entry. I am not trying to pick him here. I really am not going to the Colts this week. Well, you have to understand, I have the Jets plus the points. I can't have that those two things happening in my life. Really, I don't want to deal you know, you don't want to deal with I don't want to deal with Philip Rivers. I knows. I didn't say never, but I don't. I

don't trust them here. Oh I don't trust him. Um, I really don't. And I'm just pondering this for the first time. By the way, dare I say, Todd, I don't need suggestions. For God's sakes, I'm going through it myself. How about your your life? You love the Seahawks against Dallas? You know the tune? Any Uh? The question is do I trust the Chargers? Why don't you yell at Mikey forgiving you let me suggesting, because you're easier to yell at the Chargers. Do I trust them? I don't know, Arizona,

I don't know. This is very difficult for me. I think I think that I may have to Oh God, actually I may actually go with the New England Patriots. Yeah, I'm serious, that's the game. I don't want to bet when we get to that, I don't want anything to do with that. I'll tell you why, because I think the Raiders are are a little overhyped, and I think

Belichick versus Gruden is the matchup I might want. And I can anticipate lots of other people losing on New England later in the year, so that might be my That's a good one. Don't let that. Don't let that line move in the other way. Now to five and a half scared you. The biggest win for Vegas just happened five days ago. This looks like a letdown spot

for them. I like it, by the way, as people want to know, because you're famous for many things on this obvious ones like Sprinkle, which we haven't had yet. How proud driving around Gil Now I listened to like National Radio TV, and I hear guys saying sprinkle, sprinkle, sprinkle. I'm like, whoa, yeah, that's uh. It was the uh what's the big wood barstool? They use it too, like they came up with it also. Um, but one of the things you're famous for Seattle Super Bowl year you

were all, you're like a forget Seattle, forget Seattle. And they wanted but you wanted to tell people that you were in Kansas City last year. Yes, sir, and and what a city Kansas City is. Who embraced me with open arms. As soon as I bet Kansas City for the Super Bowl, they forgot everything I said during the last two regular seasons. He said, come on, have some ribs, come watch the parade with us. You're are people. That's my kind of my kind of town. Seattle, we just

don't mix. Well, you guys don't get along. I know. I thought New Orleans was always your of course, But now Kansas City, somehow, they they've accepted me. When I was I was anti Kansas City for a while until I started believing the height. It takes a while to convince me. Ason Tom brenhaman with different viewpoints in the same town in the same time. Uh, that's true. I like that. So I'm feeling good about New England. Now do the question becomes, is he absolutely gonna take New England?

When I finally press submit on this? Can I say that with a certainty. I'm gonna be honest with you. I can't. But that's still thinking right now. You still have You have till Saturday at three o'clock to get more information. There might be an injury. But I haven't had the time to think it through. Man, I do three things a day. You got time. You've got time just for the stenography, Gil, for the stenography. You have the pats And who did you use the last two weeks? Uh?

I used Tennessee and Cleveland. Tennessee and Cleveland. You got you got options? I got options. I do have options. But this is a tough week. Which will find got Baltimore Monday night. They shouldn't lose at home. That's cancer. He's trying to run me into a wall. Can I make a survivor please, which I couldn't make on visa, but I could maybe make it here. You could do anything here. How bad do you think that Brianna Taylor protests are going to get And the reason I say

this this up. The reason I say this is because I was downtown last night and we had a protest and I was at the Events Center doing a job fair for c and I mean we had to get out of there. I mean the streets were blocked in that They're gonna come a time with the timing between Thursday night and the weekend. If there's issues like this in a racial pandemic where you might have to take Jacksonville on Thursday night, if everything gets canceled on Sunday

and Monday, you win the contest. So was this easy idea or was this your idea? This is my idea, because don't let me this. He get credit for everything he texted me this. Wait, is that really true, Mike? No, No, So listen to this. Listen to this because it's an interesting theory, and you're right, this is probably the floormat to saying on imagine if something got so bad and and yesterday might have been a great example of that,

right with with with the ruling in in Louisville. And we're not talking whatever political side you're on here or whatever, that's not the point of this. The point is from a football perspective, if you're if we're a survivor, right, Let's say something goes down on the Thursday, and let's say that still the NFL plays the Thursday night game.

But what if it just the ground, what if it's a crescendo of protest on a Friday, on a Saturday, We're just speculating right to the point where the where I guess what you're suggesting is the NFL just has cancelations left and right on a Sunday, what the whole whole side canceled? So then what would happen to survivor? Whoever had a correct pick on Thursday wins advance? Well, they would advance if Jacksonville one the only people left

would be the people that there's no way that. What are you talking about, you guys, you're saying no way circle would do that, saying you're saying that if a guy on Thursday night and then they cancel the rest of the games, that guy's that's the only Winna. Now you don't know. Now you have to handicap the protests. Sure, you have to handicap That's the point of the conversation.

That's the whole point of the conversation. I thought you were gonna say, there's no way the NFL would do that, but you went with there's no way Circle would do that. We wait, you haven't seen anything yet. Wait till we have elect electoral pandemic, which is again, these are things we can't talk about on on satellite radio necessarily, but

here I think this is all. This is all very interesting stuff because you have to handicap COVID, right, you have to handicap social injustice, you have to handicap all these things. And in something like Survivor, which is just do or die period. Could you imagine if it ended on something like that, that would be nuts, It would be unfortunate, it would be unfortunate, would be very but it would certainly be talked about for years to come.

A perfect example. Gil why whenever anyone asks me how to get into the the three, how to be a professional better? I always tell them, dude, get on the other side of the counter, don't even don't even bother yourself with this side. Don't be a bookmaker. That life is so much easier. It's it's it's ever increasingly more difficult. This year is just its own thing impossible. But that's just that's an amazing scenario. We sat there and rapped our brains on how to be fair in the in

the circle millions. If the game gets postponed, we just give you a half point, right, But we can't do that because in Survivor, you must pick a winner that week, right, And it's just the unfortunate part of something might happen, whether it's a COVID game or a protest game, that you've picked a team and the game doesn't play it you've lost that entry and the circle rule. Yes. And by the way, if there's anybody listening right now, it's like, I want to hear this stuff that we're not We're

not trying to be ESPN Radio. We understand that people any political todd Let me finish the sentence so that people can understand I'm saying exactly what you're saying, instead of interrupting and making it seem like I'm not saying that. Can we do? Can't we agree on that? So? Uh?

By the way, I listen in the morning to ESPN Radio and then what we have on Visa and it is just Visa is so much better because they are all in on this stuff, but we're just trying to say is through through the lens of betting, and we don't care about the politics of it. That is, they just to have to ponder those scenarios is incredible. It's a handicapping consideration. That's right, handicapping consideration every But by the way, if it happens, if something like that happens,

what a sage you are? What a prophet? I hope it doesn't happen. Of course, I hope it doesn't get to that point. But here's the first seed of something that could happen. We don't know if there's gonna be a shooting on not What if there's a shooting on a Saturday afternoon, you know what I mean about? How about November three? They're they're gonna be some guys gonna say I won the election. I'm not saying anything political. I'm just saying I'm gonna say I won the election.

Other people are gonna say, no, we would like to count the votes. He's gonna say no, you're not allowed to count the votes. And there's going to be a gigantic s storm in this country that's gonna make COVID in the racial pandemic. Look like child's play, my friends. Now, I hope it doesn't happen, and I obviously hope it doesn't happen, but you know it clearly could happen. And the judge that one of those two guys nominates is probably going to decide the certification of the election. Oh man,

that's it. I'm switching to Miami. Okay, don't not switching alright, Final two questions, boys and girls. You know how this goes. We've done this is the final two questions on the show for as long as we've done this show. Uh. And then the first of which is which the big favorites do you think is the most likely to lose? Outright? The problem with this week is there are no big favorites except for one. That's the Colts, who are eleven and a half point favorites against the the Jets. Outside

of that, here are your biggest favorites. Cleveland seven point favorites against the Washington football team, and then everything else is below that. Chargers six and a half point favorites against Carolina, Tampa Bay six point favorites against Denver, and we'll leave it at New England six point favorites against Las Vegas. Those are the biggest favorites on the board of those ACE, which do you believe is not Seattle Dallas? No, Seattle Dallas and the sis. No, it's only five. We

can't get into that Pats. Technically, Pats are really only five two technically good? I oh, yeah, No, I have a lot more sixes there. I have six. Yeah, I got six enough. I'm gonna have to go. Then I'll have to go with the Carolina Panthers. Um, it's a team I think that's capable of beating this one and one Chargers team. You know they're zero point differential. Kind of ran a little randomness there further Chargers and that's six and a half sticks out. Like I said, I

was able to find a seven. Uh so I grabbed it. Don't get me wrong. Um, but I just think this offense needs a little while. It's the defense that's getting it done. I think the top fifteen d v o A, so they're keeping them in games. But I think Caroline is capable of beating this team, even on the road. I'll take the Panthers. Okay, so Chargers is your pick of the favorite the big favorite most like to go

down right. Yeah. Uh And we we've gone this far in the show without mentioning to Rod partner with the pronce stays to Rod Taylor punctured lung from the doctor of the Chargers. If they would have won the game with the doctor have gotten the game ball. Another thing I can't say, but you know what, you know what it does explain to me. I'm the first one to love to bury you. But that was could you imagine the post game lacker? So every we know who's getting

this game ball? Everybody? Uh No, by the way, welcome to I Heart Radio for this podcast with that note right there. No, um, the we're on the I Heart Radio Network podcast network, by the way, So that's a that's her debut salvo right there. No, but seriously, Anthony Lynn, we were all at least at least I know I was on a numbers game and I'm sure everybody else was. When he immediately said Anthony Lynn that they would go back to Tyrod Taylor as soon as he was healthy,

Everybody's like, what are you talking about? Justin Herbert had like a minute to prevary for this game, and he was awesome. That explains it to me. Lombardi doesn't think I'm right. He thinks that's he thinks that's nonsense. He

thinks he likes Tyrod Taylor period, no matter what. But I think Anthony Lynn knew something weird happened and he had Yeah, you agree, But I thought they won't stairs Mid Carolina as they fall under that oh and two a T S trend that I keep hearing, which that nonsense, which is well, it's it's everywhere with the oh these teams are owing to a T S and over the last four seasons, blah blah blah, it's twenty two and

whatever against the spread. Like those kind of things start to worry me because I like a couple of those dogs in that oh and two, and I just don't trust. I don't like trends like that. When you tell me they're twenty two and seven over the last four years, Why are you telling me the last five years and six and seven? Like does it not fit the narrative?

And you stopped it four years? Like just say, teams that are owing to A T S are probably undervalued going into week three, Like that's a fundamental reason we could all agree on that it's possible if the team hasn't covered first two games out of the gate, they're owing two, there may be a little undervalued, But the pool out trends like, oh, they're twenty two and this over the last three years. To me, that's just nonsense. But yet you're spooked by it nonetheless, Yeah, because exactly

because it's so it's everywhere. I'm like, are they shading for it? You know what I mean? Is it baked into the cake too much? That's what worries me. But chance, you're also saying that's what I was worried about with the Titans. You're also saying the teams can theoretically be on Technically they're going to be. If you throw a thousand teams that went oh and two against spread in any sport, they're probably gonna be a little bit undervalued going into of that third week because of exactly what

you just said. Yeah, exactly, regardless of of the trend. I think that's just like logical, you know what I mean, Like in any market, if a team's under performing, they're probably gonna be discounted, you know what I mean? Going forward, Mikey's ace has got the Chargers of the team the large favorite most likely lose out right, Well, I'm surprised they didn't take the team that we are both against, uh, Tampa Bay, because we both took the six with Denver.

So I'm gonna say that Denver can beat Tampa Bay and I'll use them as that team, all right, Todd, Uh, you know, if the Pats are part of it, I'm gonna say the Pats. You know, I don't want, I don't really want to do that, but that's what I'm gonna say that. Look, the Raiders are moving the football. The Raiders showed they could move to football last year as well. In fact, I think the Raiders maybe that sneaky over team like Tampa was last year because they

can move the football. Their defense is really not that good and you can move on them as well. So, um, you know, I wouldn't be shocked out of my brains if Cam Newton had a bad game and and the Raiders pulled it off. I'm not saying it's gonna happen. Shocked out of my brains. Um, I'm I'm gonna say the Indianapolis Colts the biggest favorite on the board. I don't trust Philip Rivers. I've had too many experiences Philip Rivers, you know, over the years, and I the Jets can't

possibly be as bad as they've looked. I I think the Cults are the big favorite, most likely lose out right, because I think of all those big favorites, they're the shakiest of the bunch. I get it they're playing, but I trust Cleveland more than I do against the Washington football team. Sorry, I you know, the other one was

the Chargers that I considered. So it's it's but I'm gonna say that I'm just for giggles, I'm gonna say I'm gonna say the Colts because I really I don't trust Philip Rivers one bit and they've got too many injuries, so that'd be my play there. Uh, the game you want no part? Have to wrap this up, bizarro exercise. You have to pick a side in every single one of these sixteen games which you get one past one game you want no part of one game you wouldn't

even bet with Wishnav's money. What game my bank mythical bank roll. I don't know why you have to keep kicking gets so angry, Like, what game would you pick? Ace? For me, this is symbol um Atlanta Chicago because it just doesn't make sense, like, you know, you have a note to Atlanta team given points, getting uh ticket account. At least from what I'm hearing, the money's coming in on the Atlanta side. To me, that's just a confusing

type of game. Um nothing. I want to focus on Chicago looking good at two and oh a little surprising but in catching points. I just want no part of this at all. That's a that's as as solid a pick as any. Mike I said, it's the Raiders in New England, just because I'm not sure how good this Raider's team is. I look at this trend and I kind of you know, what Gruden did year one year to the record keeps improving. But I'm not I'm not a car guy. I just don't think cars any good.

I mean, so, how good is New England? How is is Belichick doing this with all the deserters and and all of a sudden cams is looks like his arms healthy again, and he's he's able to march down the field in a minute and a half. I mean, that was amazing. So I just don't really know that I know either team, and that the number is a tough number to bet, So I want no part of that game, Todd. I know Todd's gonna take mine. Pittsburgh against the Houston Texans.

I want no part of Billy O'Brien because if you bet on him, you could literally lose your life because you'll go crazy, end up in a mental asylum and want to kill yourself. Or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Where the Pittsburgh Steelers? Are they really this good? Are they? I mean? What are they? Are they good? Are they bad? I know they're two and oh, but they didn't look incredible against the Giants. They let Denver hang around with Jeff driscoll for all kinds of the time. Could have you

even lost the game at the end? I don't know what Pittsburgh is, I really don't. I know Ben has lost a lot of weight, but I don't know what Pittsburgh is, and I don't want Bill O'Brien, So get me out of that. I know we don't usually associate this category with anything but like teams that we just don't have a feel for. But Baltimore Kansas City is mine? Like you can't pick a better more? Yeah, I can't pick a better marquee matchup in the NFL in that game.

But I want no part of it on the side because I think Baltimore could crush him actually, and I think Mahomes could do the Mahomes thing and beat him at the you know, beat him, beat him late as well, or Kansas City have a big league. There's so many different results of this as you haven't you have an opinion on this game. I do, man, I do, and and honestly, listen, it's not a knock against Kansas City.

It's just they got it done. Man. They won the Super Bowl like they needed to do, wanted to do, aim to do, and for both them more, they haven't gotten there. They're the regular season team. They're the Kansas City of two years ago of trying to still prove themselves to where they're gonna blow teams out in the regular season. I don't like teams like this, um, but you gotta look at that side. I think Baltimore, what what you need to do. I think a lot of

Kansas City money is probably gonna come in. Kansas City is an underdogs attractive we know their record with Mahomes is a dog. I think they're like four and one or five and o against the spread, something like that. He's gonna get money. I think you sit back, you wait, if a bunch of Kansas City money line comes in, you get the bet. Baltimore at home on the money line at a discount. Um. I like that, and I like Baltimore first half. I think they're gonna come out.

Like you said, if Kansas City comes in it winsday game, I think they're gonna have to do it from behind. Baltimore has all the momentum, they have everything to prove. It's at home and they're that custom made regular season team to blow everyone away. But let's see what you could do in the postseason. That's when it matters. Well, Baltimore money line might be what I actually end up betting that day. But as long as it as long as it's three in a hook or ori end game.

As long as three in a hook though on the pre flop number, that's a line I want no part of. I don't like that hook. If it were three, it might not be the game I would choose, But I don't like that. I just think they're plicking better offensively, defensively, special teams all three facets of the game are playing up the speed where I think in Kansas City they're not there yet. The talents there, but I don't think they're playing as efficiently as Baltimore is. Out of the gate.

I like it. Let's face it, Kansas City had no business to win that game, and in the last as exactly, why doesn't he take three points at the end of the first quarter. Idiotic. He could have been up to nothing. And I'm spalking about Anthony Lynn at the thirty four yard line. I mean, you could kick. I could kick a sixty yard field goal on that, So be yourself, which you're right, most people are talking about. They're not talking about that. They're not talking about the end of

the third quarter. They run for eight yards on first down, they have second and two with thirty five seconds and no play clock. He rushes to the line and throws that bad interception. They didn't have to run and play in the third That was horrific, horrific. The play calling at the goal line, the decision, I mean, there was just soles. They were inside the tend to put to put a real big, put a big touchdown up and they would have been the goal from the four and

they never let him throw the ball. They never got the ball wide, They never play action nothing. It was hard down. Was a broken play. It wasn't a broken play. It was supposed to be some motion seper He turned right, he was supposed to turn left. Yeah, yeah, rookie quarter beat, what are you gonna played? Great? Defense, played great. They should have won the game. I was shocked that the

Chiefs kicked the field goal at the end. I thought they it was fourth and I thought I thought they were going to go for How how let's think about that feat he kicked. Technically, he kicked four fifty eight yard field goals in that game. Radst kicking displays. Why would you go for it when if you miss a fifty eight yard field goal the other team has incredible feel? But I don't even understand why you would go because Michael Lombardo tell you of the time, Yeah, why would

Why would you go for the field goal? That's what we're saying. We would have went fourth and the bigger one to me, and I don't know if it's bigger, but just as egregious like John Gruden got away with it. Two on Monday Nights, half I got plus eight and a half. Right when thirty one seventeen, the Raiders going to go up fourteen, I said, I gotta gotta take the Saints here plus eight and a half. You know, the Saints are coming down for the easy backdoor touchdown.

They go marching down the field. I'm in it's over, there's no chance. And then this idiot Cruden picks the field goal. What are you doing? He had money line on he goes. I was, he goes. My bet was like minus five thousand, and when he kicked the field goal, now it feels like minus seven hundred because if he misses it, the good I wasn't even talking. I wasn't even talking to him, and I texted you guys, and then he said, oh, not only that. Yeah, here's what

I had on it. He had and I liken it to like the ends of NBA games when a team is up three. If if if it's a coach that's up three that you know is going to foul the opponent, I would lay minus the money line. But if he's if he's not going to foul, you wouldn't lay minus two fifty on it even And that's exactly what Gruden did, and when he led up for the field goal, he is dying. And then of course it goes in right,

fifty four yard field goal. And by the way, I love analytics, but all these analytics people on Twitter afterwards you're like, oh, it's just a wash. He could have punted it, kicking the field goal, and it was the same thing. I'm sorry, your model does not factor in the fact that Drew Brees cannot throw the ball down field, and so that drove me crazy. The model is wrong. Thanks are great if the math inside the analytics are great. If the math inside the analytics are bad, analytics sucks

and models suck. Yes, and we have got well said and well said what that's going to come out of it? Yeah, and we have gotten We have gotten to the point. I totally agree that we've gotten to the point where if anybody even says they have a model, our knee jerk reaction is, oh, they must be super smart. That must be right. If you had punched, punt it or whatever. There is no chance anybody who's ever watched football thinks

that that should have been a field goal attempt. And because Daniel Carlson makes it, now they are so buoyed by that he's gonna do it again. Yeah, we gave the kicker confidence we'll do it again. It's football. I'm like, okay, Raiders got a little that says I have a model that says I will always weigh more than you and Mike Palm. That model is wrong. Oh I see what he did there. You can do it, bro I lost a hundred pounds. Anyone can do it. But how did

you do it? Ace? Honestly, the way you be the same way I learned how to finally make money betting sports and playing blackjack. Discipline. It's the truth. Even when I had access to winning information as a runner back when before the Internet, I had better information than anyone back then, and I still managed to go broke multiple times because I didn't know how to use it. I had no discipline. And it's the same with losing weight. I mean, unless you have something physic lead an ailment,

that's a different story. But otherwise it's a case of of of discipline and choices. I mean that the model hasn't changed. You need to take in less than you burden. There's no the other way to do it other than eat less, move more. That's all I did. I did it for a year. I changed my my habit. You can't diet. You gotta change your life because you can only diet for so long, and you're gonna stop doing that eventually, and your body's gonna bounce back to what

it remembers. What you have to do is change your lifestyle and then you then your choice has become easy. Like I no longer eat meat more than once or twice a month, so that problem is solved. I don't eat carbs more than this many times. That problem solved. That's all you gotta do. Just make lifestyle changes, and its diet. It's not even the exercise, to be honest with you, that's the other. That's the other little key

to it. They don't tell you that what you go to a gym, you know, an important piece of exercise equipment is the fork. Yeah, there it is. Ace. I'm very impressed how respectful Todd was of your deference, the deference he held you in. I mean, most guests he puts through the ring are very dismissing. Remember the Doctor Bob cheap shots were cheap shots by the day. The verbal day showed something of the national megapod so impolite. Well, doctor,

Bob doctor. First of all, I tipped on a serious note, even though these two lulligans don't know what the hell they're talking about. I have to tip my hat lunatics with hooligan. I have to tip my hat to you for losing over hunter pounds. I've actually lost over hunder pounds five times, not to not to uh you know, super seed you I'm just that's because I, like you said, I go back off the lifestyle. Now. Last time I had issues about seeing, you know, my my eyes getting blurry,

my hands starting to get tingly from diabetes. So I put down the pizza on June twentie of last year. So hopefully it sticks this time. But I do have to tip my hat because that's just take your time, man, patient, Just take your time. That's all you gotta do. Don't look at the scale every day. I mean, it's okay to do that, so, you know, make a habit, but just take there's no rush, take your time the way. It didn't come on in two months, so it takes

a little while. People just like, hey, here's a serious question. Do you think Mike Palm weever come to his senses and decide not to be a portly young man who can't really do anything except play moonball and tennis. Wow. I think as we get older, we all have no choices. You know, once you start getting the blood example, the test back and your dogs, that starts telling you, you know, you gotta do the right thing. You start seeing on

the back nine like myself. You know, once you get on that back nine, you gotta start taking things a little more seriously. And I know a young Filipino boy who wants to see his dad stay live a lot longer. So we got to get that guy out on tennis court and get him to put the fork down. I played for an hour and eighteen degree heat with e. I. I was only eight games, but still well, wishing everybody weight loss. I need something myself because Todd's catching me good,

is doing a great job. He Gil has a different systems. It's called the oily cheeseball system. Can you eat the oily and cheeseball down to Italy? And then you go, I don't understand, come up anyway, I don't know. I still struggle. I honestly, like you've you've known me now for a decade and you've seen me get a little chubby and then lose it, Like if I let myself go for a number of months. I have that kind of body where I'll get weight on pretty quickly, so

I always still have to maintain discipline. I'll get heavy quickly. Yeah, but if I was your mom, I would say to you, maybe you should eat a little more. You're looking my mom just I can't for that. She's in Greece, but when when I visited her, when she's here, that's all she does. She thinks I'm sick. I forgot. She thinks there's something wrong with me. I wish I had your problems. Uh, good luck, I really do. Good luck with everybody. Everybody

with all your bets. Uh, Toddy and Mike, thank you, Ace, so good to see you. Thank you for doing this. The pleasure is mine. I'm a fan. Like I said, I'm all three of you guys, so thanks for having me. Appreciate it so much. Good luck with all your bets. Thanks so much for listening from all of us here on the Bug of pot