Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 2 Preview

We'll do this every week yes when, oh yes, until Circle opens, until Circle and then we'll move this show two blocks down the street to the to the three story sports Book and above the Visa Studio Radio row. What We'll do this podcast every Thursday. This is I was just saying, this is more than you know. Obviously, we love doing Vison, loved doing MSG plus with our

guest today, who will introduce momentarily. Uh. But I started this podcast in my underwear, so to just be doing this out in public is so great that it man, when we get to Circa, good lord, this is phenomenal. Our guest day. By the way, we're missing Todd wishnev I heard I heard he's taping the GM Shuffle for next week. Is that true? I think that might be true. He had a thing that he's doing, and maybe it was, in fact the GM Shuffle. Uh Todd. I don't know

if he's trapped under a heavy object. I don't know what the story is. But he's not here with us today. UH So his antics will be missed this week, but we'll get him back next week and for the rest of the season. Our guest today is my co host on a new show we do at MSG plus. It's called Primetime Action. It's Visa's Primetime Action powered by Draft Kings, which is seven to ten Eastern for those who have MSG plus in New York City and throughout the country.

Matt Brown, everybody, how you doing, Matt? I'm doing great. I am very happy to make my debut here on the Mega Pod, and I too cannot wait for Circa to open down there. I already have a reservation Mr Palm at one of those cabanas out at the UH at the Pool to watch the Thursday night game when you guys get going out there. So I am very very much looking forward to the new venue downtown. Can't wait to see it. Did I tell you I have Friday Cabanas as as well? Friday Cabana you have the

second day? He's got that. Wow, that's Carolina and Atlanta that night, right, Matt, that's our our opening game. Oh, I'm talking about March Madness. That's what he's doing. He's doing right when we open. He's doing the first Thursday night game, Carolina Atlanta. You are Friday. That's that's the hottest ticket. I think the Friday of March Madness is

going to be the hottest kicking at the pool. And we and we figured out today that we probably will have college basketball at least there's a plan in place for college basketball. Now that the Big Ten and the Pack twelve have also decided to play football. We think, uh so here's how this goes. I think you know the format. We give our three best bets, then we

do any thoughts on Thursday night football games. Sometimes those two things are the same thing, uh, Teaser of the week, survivor play and then the final two questions of course, which have to do with the big favorite most likely to lose out right, followed by the game that no one are that anyone here wants a no part of based on the spread itself, and we were in a bizarro world. You had to bet everything, but there was one you just wanted to pass on before we get

into our best bets. After one week, circu Million and Survivor, which neither had an overlay. In the end, you and Derrick Stevens, the P. T. Barnum of Las Vegas, the both of you use, if I may say, use uh, no overlay because quite frankly, there shouldn't be one because you have the best contest in town, with the best format. Tim Fitzgerald former sports book supervisor at South Point and he worked for us for a brief time as well.

He called this uh at the ginning of August when we were still only around three entries, and he said, you're not going to have an overlay because the market will not allow an overlay, it will not tolerate it. And he was right. He was right. So yeah, we got there. We got thirty one four eight and the circum million two and almost four nine and the Survivor. I think the Survivor will really take off next year. I am. I had two of those Survivor entries. I

had the Colts in one of them. As we know from this show that's done, thirty percent of all of those survivors went out with the Colts alone, of all survivor entries in your content went out week one. Yeah, Colts took a ton of people out, and then uh, the Eagles in San Francisco were the next big chunks out. So we have we have eight oh five left out of thirteen nine after one week. I am more e and I are buddy. You and I were talking about this, we were doing you know, we all had our football

bets going on. We all had bets and other sports. Our brains kept coming back to our survivor picks. It's an interesting little phenomenon. Seventeen people didn't enter at all. They forgot to put it in. At seventeen people did not submit, which is almost as unforgivable as Todd not being available this morning. Almost almost. I would like to laugh at those people, and maybe with a one thousand dollar entry, I should laugh at them. But you know

what your boy forgot to do. I forgot to put in my last man standing picks, so I I pissed away a hundred dollars completely forgot about it. To scale, It's not as bad, right, But if you had five five, I don't know out of the seventeen you know that that's seventeen entries that could have been four people technically, so if you had five, that's five thousand dollars down the two were some circumillions. Did they fail to enter eighteen there may be a correlation or eighteen did not enter.

I think there's sixty three people had a perfect week if I if I remember that, correct went five and oh and then another ninety had went four oh and one, So good starts there for those folks. MATEO, how do you do? I went Bourn one and I had the horrible, horrible pick of the Browns plus eight, which was my loser on the week. Yeah, that was just a man in retrospect. What in the hell was I thinking? But outside of that, I went four and one, so started

off pretty strong here. I actually didn't get in the Survivor. I wish I have. I was going to do that if if there was some overlay as well, but you guys got their way early on that one. So I ended up not getting in the Survivor. But guess what, I saved myself a thousand dollars because I too would have picked the colts, and I would be sitting here talking about how after one week I was down a thousand dollars. Yeah. By the way, we're looking up at

the screen because Matt's on the screen for us. What a set up here at the d and Bar, Canada, and we could we should invite people down here every week at ten am to come hang out with us. We have a crowd. By the way, Matt, you could have been here too, But I didn't know what the setup was. So next time. Um, But where was I going with this? Oh? I don't even know where I was going with it. I lost my train of thought. But essentially I can't even get mad at myself. This

is where I was going with it. Those of us who had Indianapolis. There's there's no regret, Like, I can't even bust myself or have any self loathing because there was no scenario where I was never going to pick them, which I think is what Matt was saying to Like, So I can't even I can't even get upset with myself for losing that edgery, just happy that I had two of them. Uh, let's start with our Thursday night before our best bets. I actually it's the same for me.

So I'm curious any thoughts on Thursday night, Matt, We'll start with you. Yeah, I mean this is I think a pretty pretty good bounceback spot here for this Cleveland Browns team. I mean they're actually built pretty good, I think to handle the Bengals in this spot. When you look and you kind of dig in a little bit more.

I mean, it is gonna be a rookie quarterback and Joe Burrow, don't get me wrong, future Hall of Famer Joe Burrow, but it is a rookie quarterback on the road here on a short week, and you kind of dig in a little bit more. And the Browns actually were able to generate pressure on Lamar Jackson at the fifth highest rate in the NFL last week, and uh, let me, it didn't didn't didn't help him all that much, but they were able to get to him. It is

Lamar Jackson. Now we're talking about a rookie quarterback on short week here, and I I really do like a lot this spot here for this Browns team. I think this would have been a full touchdown if the Browns had even shown up last week. And so getting six. And actually there was a five and a half that popped up over on the East coast a little bit earlier in the week, if you were able to get

in on that one as well. But yeah, I love me some Browns in this game, and I think this is uh where they kind of show Look, yeah, we're probably not built to win a championship quite yet, but we can beat the teams we're supposed to beat. And uh, Matt, Matt said Joe Burrows, the future Hall of Famer, because that's his way of telling you. He went out this

U as well. We used to fly over Matt and night and with along with Jay Rudeback in the day and day fare over the stadium at l s U. And Matt would tell us little things that he used to do in the stadium that cannot be discussed here. But that's uh, that's how a trench is L s U. So your thought is Cleveland or nothing? Or you made

a bet of Cleveland? No? No, I actually when it popped down to five and a half there for a short amount of time, I was able to get in on them under under the six, and so I was able to get in on Cleveland at five and a half. It didn't last very long. But fortunately I was just happen to be sitting in my computer and saw it happen, And so I'm I'm on Cleveland five and a half and I actually don't hate it at the six. To be perfect honest with you, is that one of your

three best bets? Would you say of the week or that's just another bet, that's just another bed. I have three that I like a little bit more. You it's gonna be one of my three. Go you go ahead, any thoughts tonight. No, I'm not going to copy your pick like Todd copied. Todd copied my teaser, and that's what he's gonna do, because you want to get any of them right. But you know, we we all went down with Atlanta there. Um, I don't know, but I'm

not playing this game. It's not one of my picks, and I don't even know if I'm gonna play it in real life tonight. Um. If I did, I might lean a little bit under the number, just because I think that Burrows showed poison week one against San Diego, but they stayed in the game because Tyrod was so really awful, and well, I just, uh, I I think that they will. They will try to, you know, keep the training wheels on them a little bit in a short passing game. I want to play the Browns, but god,

they were so bad. I took him off the TV. I took them off the TV here at bar Canada. The game was so I had to get the Clippers. People want to see the Clippers, so I had I had to find a TV and that game was just so out of hand. I had to take them off off so we could put the Clippers up. But I can't trust I just can't. I mean, new coach, and it's the same old story. I know it was just week one, but it's in and and and long. It's a pass for uh Mike. For those who don't know,

not only Derrek Stevens conciliary. What is your official title here at presentation? Vice President Operations, which I stated last week, but somehow I don't remember this week. But you're also the uh the TSAR of Active Content Management, so you are responsible for what's on every TV. And you just took off the Browns. I don't normally make Thursday night picks. I certainly don't normally make them in in the circu million contests, nor do I in Survivor just kind of

steer clear of Thursday games. But today I'm making an exception. I am taking the Cleveland Browns minus six consensus. Uh. And the primary reason and I'm not disputing anything. The Browns were miserable against the Ravens. Getting crushed thirty eight to six couldn't have looked worst worse. The Bengals should have probably beaten the Chargers, but a offensive p I which I think was an offensive p I on A J.

Green and then uh, Randy Bullock. Uh as Randy's first Yeah, Randy Bullock has the calf strain if you believe that in Shanks the field goal that could have said it overtime. By the way, the calf is fine now interestingly for Randy Bullock. Um, but I'm on to Cleveland primarily because of the rookie quarterback angle. I'm going to my phone here because I want to get this right. I might take onf my glasses cronkite style for this, because it's

uh serious matter. This is from my buddy t A at Cleve t A c l e v t A on Twitter. It does a who's great follow? Uh. He was talking about the Browns in this game since two thousand five. And I'm not typically a trends guy either, but some trends of matter. Here's this since two thousand five, and we were looking for this last night, Matt Matt

on Primetime Action since two thousand five. Rookie quarterbacks who had to play on a short week on a Thursday early in the season, talking about the first eight weeks of the season one in six straight up, one touchdown, ten picks, and an anemic five point seven yards per attempt. As t A said, here, yuck taking the Browns minus six. I'm with him. I'm take in the Browns minus six.

That's the primary reason. And if you do a query search on this, the only quarterback in that subset to win a game like this was the great Deshaun Watson in his rookie year for the Texans. Russell Wilson didn't get this done in this situation, nor did the quarterbacking Hall of Fame of Geno Smith, Sam Donald, Brandon Weed and E. J. Manuel or Daniel Jones. We'll see, but I'll I'll bet against that. I really do think the short week this early is gonna be tougher Joe Burrow.

So Cleveland is my number two best bet of the week. How about look at you? Are you? Are you just play Devil's out here? You're not all worried about the injuries? I mean, and Joe, who's out, Greedy Williams out, Kevin Johnson out, Mack Wilson out, Jacob Phillips out. Then they're questionable with Jarvis Landry and Olivier Vernon and Jack Conklin, I mean, the only thing that And I'm on your side as well with this, But are you at all worried about the how shorthanded the Browns are gonna? Sure?

Like that absolutely enters in my thinking. But here's the thing. If Baker Mayfield and the talent that this team supposedly has, even even besides those injuries, is what it's supposed to be, they have to win this football game, and they have to win it going away, seriously on a short week like this. By the way, the Cleveland Browns I believe will be my survivor pick this week as well. Wow,

you're gonna use it? Yeah? Interesting, So I'll take the Titans was the one that got through, thankfully, after Stephen Gotkowski took ten points off the board that he could add last week with Shanks. I think I'm gonna go Tennessee and now Cleveland this week. You're very strong on this game, very strong on this Let's do our best bets Matteo number one, number one for me. Seahawks minus

three and a half versus the Patriots. Here, this is to me a classic situation of people still looking at this Patriots team and feeling having having these warm fuzzies about this Patriots team. And listen, it's a one game sample, I get it. But they finally came out and let Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson from the beginning of the game. I think that they saw I think that they looked at this and they saw how much success they were

able to have by being able to do that. I would like to think in the assumption of rational thinking in the NFL from a coaching standpoint, I understand is death sometimes, but I'm gonna assume rational thinking here, and that is the fact that they're gonna go out and let Russell Wilson do that yet again against this Patriots team that, as we know, just absolutely ravaged by opt outs. Really on the defensive side of the ball, as well

as people leaving town to shorthanded defense. Here at home with the Seahawks team, Russell Wilson throwing early and often give me the Seahawks minus three and a half in this game? Do you permit me to step in line? Mr Palm, I got the Seahawks. Is my number one pick? Number one number one Browns were my number two. Uh. Much of almost mimicking exactly what Matt is saying. That

was the thing about the Seahawks in prior years. They just sort of did what they did for three quarters and then they said, all right, let's put the cape on Russell Wilson and get us out of here, superman. Uh. And he would more often than not. Now it looks like because they have heard this this outcry for why don't you just do what you do from from the beginning of a game, Let's have a game plan that doesn't necessitate an escape job. You're right, the assumption of

rational thinking. Maybe we die with that, Matt. But that's what I'm going with the assumption of rational thinking here for a guy like Pete Carroll. And by the way, it's also with the Patriots. I was against the Patriots that was one of my losses last week. That was a terrible pick as well on the Dolphins, as it turned out. But it's also it's so funny to hear people talk about the NFL. They're like, oh, the Dolphins are terrible. Oh, look, the Patriots are gonna be as great.

You know, it's always it's still Bill Belichick. Well, if the Dolphins are that sucky, does it immediately mean that the Patriots are that great. I'm not going to get swayed by one game. I still don't think the Patriots are gonna be this good this year, and I don't think they showed me that much in Week one. The Cam Newton runs all day long strategy is not a sustainable offense. I will take the Seahawks minus four. Terrific, terrific, thank you. So I'm filling in as the stenographer for

takeing a judge injury. No, no, no, and I won't no. I won't tell whether people are good people. I won't tell whether people are good people are bad people, or where they're from I or they're blowhards or any of that stuff. I'll just with with the dispassion record the place. Can we just do this one disclaimer before you get your pick. I hope Todd's okay. Is I want to have this recorded and and nothing have that own record. We probably shouldn't release it until we know he's okay.

That's probably because it might come off wrong if he passed or something that's true. So I'll give you my number one pick. I'm gonna take and I thought this line was just too high. I'm gonna take Matt Rule and his Carolina Panthers plus nine at Tampa Bay. I think that the score the Raiders is a little bit misleading in this in in in that game, I mean

a horror a fourth down call at midfield. Uh, when you have McCaffrey and Bridgewater not to try some sort of play action or get somebody the kid they gave the ball to from West Georgia three years in the league, sixteen carries for twenty five yards. I mean this intrucial fourth and warrucial. You know they got behind in the game because they went away from McCaffrey and then they went back to him in the third quarter. On that eighty five yard drive, he had eleven touches. They went

up and down the field. That's how they got back in the game and actually took the lead. I'm just I'm not sold that that father time has to take it. Its toll on Brady. I don't know that Arian said he's you know, he plays better in practice. I don't know why he didn't play so well in the game. I think this is Tom Brady. He was horrible the last eight weeks of the year in New England. I know he has more weapons, but I don't think he's their savior down there. I don't think they're a playoff team.

I know it's not easy going in New Orleans, but New Orleans sucks the first week every year. Payton's terrible, he is he all they always lose, and here they come out with you know, because I was going to counter by saying, don't you think the pick six and then that mortar kick that the Saints also recovered skews that result last week. But that's an interesting point about the SAT. So I was I was down. I was

higher on Tampa Bay. I thought this was a new look for him and he finally had some receivers for the first time since moss Um. But no, and I thought I thought Carolina looked decent and in a loss at home. Be it to the Raiders. But this Raiders team may be a little underrated as well. I just thought this number would come out five and a half or six, and when it was over seven, I had to take it. And it's going up still eight and a half now nine, So I'll take nine. Is my

number one best bet with the Carolina Panthers. Are you taking nine? Let me just check on that, and the name of Todd guishnev let me take. Here we go, okay, here we go again? Do we give you? There's always and a half. There's always one of them still left on the show. I don't know. Was it nine or eight and a half? Mikey, what's your sense, Agil, what's I'm going to say it's eight and a half. Okay, I'll take it. I'll take it. It's not gonna it's not gonna sway me. Let me let me make sure

that I'm right there. If Todd later comes back and says it's nine, I think the record has to be corrected. You know what, Go with the nine, thank you, Go with the nine. Thank you. It's it's teetering alright. Number two. I've already given my number two, which is the Browns, Matt, I am going to be taking the New York Football Giants getting five and a half points here at the Bears.

The Bears played one good quarter of football. I went back and Gil, you and I were on air whenever the Giants were playing, and we you get to see about six sevent of the game. We're still having to do programming. It's kind of hard to see every single play that goes on. So I did go back and rewatch that game, and it was a couple of pretty just unfortunate plays that that really kind of put this Giant's team in a position to lose as badly as

they did. And we're talking against one of the very elite defenses, and all of the NFL everybody was talking about how good the Steelers defense was going to be. They didn't lose anybody from last year where they were one of the elite defenses. And I was even talking about that heading into that game, that I thought that defense was going to get the better of the New York Giants. It's well income the Bears, and yeah they

do have Khalil Mack. I do understand that, but it's not it is not as complete a unit at all as what you're getting in the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I think that Daniel Jones and them kind of showed what they can do without their best player being a factor at all at all in that game. Se Kwon Barkley completely neutralized in that game. That is not gonna happen in this game. He is going to be cut loosey, is going to be able to get some yardage on the ground, and Daniel Jones is gonna be able to

move the ball through the air as well. I would love to have gotten the six where this thing opened. I did not, But even at five and a half here, I feel pretty confident. Would not shock me if when this game is over, if the Giants actually won this thing outright, but getting more than a field goal here with this Giants team against the Bears team that played

one good quarter, that's all there is to it. And a little bit of unfortunate bad luck there on the Giant side that got them as battle loss as they got. Give me the Giants and five and a half Giants supposed five and a half. I don't hate it. I

know what Mett's talking about. By the way, I will I will go ahead and say, with all the coaching gaps last week, Matt Patrician's decision to kick a fifty five yard or with under five minutes left up ten was the worst of the worst from a win probability standpoint.

That buoyed the Bears to victory. Good for Mr. R Bisky down the stretch in that game about the Giants, and we were watching this again on Primetime Action, but I said this, uh this morning on a Numbers game at Visa that do you can say this about a lot of NFL games, but the way that the average fan processes those games that oh, Pittsburgh destroyed them, But really the full grub points in that game were twice

to to to plays. The t J. Watt pick when the Giants were up seven in the second quarter just a Giant's kind of play where Daniel Jones throws it into the midst of t J. Watt at the line of scrimmage. I get it, it happened. But if that and the end of that long drive in the third quarter where the Giants had this drive that was almost nine minutes long, was almost nine yards, took up most of the third quarter, and it's the play where dupre hits, Daniel goes up in the air and Cameron Heyward grabs

it at the goal line. Those are two plays. That's the entire game. Those two plays don't happen, and I get it. They happened, but the margin is not what it appears to be in the final score is what I'm getting in. So I totally totally appreciate that pick. Not one of mine, but I appreciate. Well, it's my number three best bet, so I'll skip to and go to three. I like the Giants in this spot. Um you know that drive that was what forty two plays

and eighteen minutes. I mean, the problem is that they need to be able to run the ball at the two yard line. I mean, I know Barkley is not in between the tackles back, but you have to be. You can't roll him out all the way to his left on second and go from the two. The way they converted all those third downs in the fourth down on that drive against that defense was very impressive to me, and I thought, if you had Pittsburgh, it was a really fortunate cover. I thought the Giants were the better

side there. I like him to win this game. I've got some money line action on them, Matt. I think the Bears come out of that game, and you know the ineptitude of Detroit in the fourth core or the decisions they made the defense they decided to play the offense. I mean, with two and a half minutes of your up three and he gets in an information runs into the middle. I mean, incredible. They did it last year against the Cardinals to the Lions are horrific with a

lead in the fourth quarters. So I'm still I'm not sold at all on this Bears team. I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball on Sunday, and I like the Giants to win. And I'll take the five and a half as well. Uh Sa Kwan Barkley of that game, Just for a clarification, fifteen carries for six yards and one of those carries were for was for seven. I mean, Pittsburgh's defense was everything that it was blown up to be. And as far as that drive, I want to get the exact number on

this in case anybody wants to score at home. But it was just fewer than nine minutes long. I'll effort that. But just if you were than nine minutes long, um eighteen plays and uh or I believe nineteen plays as a matter of fact, unbelievable. And then it ends with the Cameron Heyward pick after the Bud Dupree hitting of Daniel Jones pick number three, man as my debut you here, Gil, I've got to I need some clarification. Am I able to pick a total? Or do you guys only pick sides?

Last week? I had two totals, all right, so in the clubhouse and one and one? Then my number three here is the under in the Niners and Jets game. I think that you're probably gonna be getting forty three. Now, I was able to pull the trigger on this at forty three and a half, but I'll take the consensus at forty three and feel pretty good about it. When you look at this receiver situation for the forty Niners,

it is really really bad right now. And now George Kittle, they're saying he's not going to practice all week long with the hopes that he is able to get out there. So now you have absolutely nobody for Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball to for this forty Niners team. And then you look at the Jets on the other side and We basically saw what this Jets offense is made out of last week, and it is just not built to put up very many points at all. And so

uh forty three. I understand that this thing has been falling. I completely understand why this thing has been falling. So even not getting the best of the number here, I still like the under. I do not think either one of these offenses is in a position where they're gonna be able to put up any points here. So give me the under on the Niners and the Jets under Niners. Jets Matt Brown's third pick of the week, third best bet that is uh and the official number is uh. Yeah.

Let's take a look at this thing has been This thing was falling since this morning. Man, holy mackerel. Two, oh boy, oh boy, you can tell you how about it. Let's let's take some East coast numbers here, Gil, because the the providing line on the prevailing numbers forty two and a half over on the East coast. So give me the half, give me the hook. See the one of us might be looking in far away places. That would be me. We live this show in reality, Gil,

we did. We don't you know it's your show. Yeah, nobody's going to tell you what to do with this one. We're gonna go with forty two at least Mike Bob never missing a moment. Push. Why don't you bet the exact total to be forty to find that one out there? We'll give that one three. Okay, my number three is actually my number two, and it's a total. I like the the Monday Night game over the forty nine and a half with the the the the debut debut of the Big Al here in Las Vegas, with the Saints

coming into town. Shame we can't be there. Shame, we can't be there. Um yeah, I like the way both of these offenses played last week. Um, let's face it. The Raiders are susceptible to a passing game, and Kamar was terrific out of the backfield as well for the Saints. Um this running back, this second year running back, Jones, Jacobe Jones is at his name, Jones incredible, Got Josh Josh Tea. I don't know Josh Josh Jacobs. Now we

don't know anything. Now we got there. Eventually, this kid, Mitch Moss met him to win the rushing title like fifteen to one, as if I like that Martin Napole Napoleon Kaufman. Now, uh, this kid is a great runner. I I watched that, dude. I thought that was the best game of the weekend, actually the Raider game. And I'm not a Raiders fan, but I thought that was

a terrific game with Carolina. I like that. I may even play in real life the first half over here because Gruden is just so good scripting those first set of plays, like Walsh us to be um. I think this Raiders team is gonna score a lot of points this year. I like this offense they got. They got Titans that can move the sticks on third down. But this Chash Jacob's kid is a beast. This this kid is gonna be a good running back for a long time,

good in the past. Catching. Yeah, it's it's very impressive. So I actually thought this number would be fifty fifty and a half fifty one, and it may get there with the public by Monday night. It I'm I'm an Unders player in real life, and I'm tending to think that these overs are the way to go. I know what did they win? The Overs fit one by three or four games above the Unders this week? I think they were nine and five going into going into to

Monday or something like that. Look at there's no crowd noise on third and Long for these visiting teams. I think that has to be a factor. It also has to be a factor that they can get off the Snaptow account, not just false starts, but getting off the ball and not getting beat by the defense they fire at one time. I think that's a big factor here.

You know, in the NFL, third and seventh, third and eight and longer, everybody's on their feet when the when the the visiting team has the ball, So I think that games will generally be overs. I'm not disagreeing with your under Matt on that on the Jets game, but let's go over. The total is my second best bet? I have forty nine and a half? Is that correct? Yes? And a half? Um my number three, Call me square, Call me square, but I'm going with the Kansas City

Omaha chiefs. Now here's the deal on Guessing Lines on Monday. For those who are loyal listeners podcast, and thank you so much over the years for being that. Christie and I did the show for week to first show of Guessing Lines. This year, we don't do it before week one. We do before we too. And the lines that I thought were the most off are the ones that I guessed and turned out to be the most off. One

of them was the Atlanta Falcons. I guessed four and a half at the time Chrissie said, I like your line better, it was six and a half. Came to my four and a half. Uh. The other one was the Vikings, which I couldn't believe. They were dogs against the Colts, but they have so many problems in the secondary that I'm not I I steered clear, didn't want any part of that. The other one was the Dolphins, who I think are catching too much point, too many

points against the Bills. But I'll let the Dolphins show me a little something before I jumped back into that pool. The Chiefs giving eight and a half at the l A Chargers, I don't feel in the Chiefs victory against the Texans on the opening Thursday night that they opened the playbook at all. There was only one downfield pass from Patrick Mahomes that was the one that was called back to DeMarcus Robinson the touchdown early in that game. I just think they they just absolutely coasted their way

through that win. Um, I don't think they showed anything. Clyde Edwards a lair revelation as a bell cow. They're going up against the charge of the team that probably should have lost, a rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Here's the thing with the Chargers. There was nothing about that game, nothing from Torod Taylor on down. Joshua Kelly had nice performance as a rookie running back, but there was nothing about them that scares you. And

they've got Anthony Lynn as their coach. I know that there could be a situation here where it could get back door because Andy Reid's not caring about our bets. But I'm not gonna overthink this too much. Give me the Chiefs, lay the points and tip of the cap to the charges that they can prove me wrong. Some bets you just have to be willing to lose. I'll take the Chiefs, I'll give the points. There's some I

think Paul Howard tweeted it. Paul Howard, one of the unsung stars of the VISA Network, doesn't get enough praise. Not really EEFs in Division games. There was some ridiculous stat in the last twenty seven division games that they're like twenty five and two against the spread. It was he tweeted out about how well they do against their division opponents. So I can't hate that player. I looked at that Vikings game too. Yeah, it was. It was weird at first, but they have nobody playing it. There

was sneaks. They really are. That's what we're talking about. LOMBARTI yesterday, it's Michael Lombardi was kind enough to join my show yesterday. I don't know if you know that he was. It was. It was a very a somber, somber, somber segments, but somber. It was somber, but but informative. It's nonetheless informative. Where are we teasers of the week? Is that where we are? We all got me? What did I say last week on this show? I said, we got long? I said, I said, we're all on

the falcons. You know what that means, boys and girls, We all got crushed. Man, give us, give us your factor the well. Back to the well, and I'm going right to the game you just talked about. And if you guys, if this is not part of your teaser, I mean that's going on here. Get that Chiefs. Get get the Chiefs down from eight and a half to two and a half. Get that thing under a field goal against this Chargers team that did not show me

absolutely anything against this Bengals. The Bengals actually graded out it's like the seventh best defense on the week last week according to for Football Focus against this Chargers team. Not Able to push the ball at all, not able to get anything going on the ground at all. This Chiefs team, we know, can turn it on against anyone. It does not matter that they are playing on you know, on the road. It's probably actually a bad thing for

the Chiefs. It probably would have been majority Chiefs fans over there in l A anyway. So uh, give me the Chiefs here under a field goal, and then I'm gonna pair this thing up with the Ravens. Uh down to one. So I will take the Ravens from seven to one. And we saw what the Chiefs were able to do to this uh, we we saw it with the Chiefs were able to do. We're able to do on the ground against this Texans defense. And boy, oh boy, gil, what do the Ravens do? Very well? They run the

football very very well. I think they're gonna be able to do whatever they want to against this Texans team on the ground here. So if I can take that thing off of the touchdown and get it down to one, I'll do that. So give me Chiefs and Ravens. You know what's funny about that? When you said ravens first of all, two things happened one And I said this on on the Morning Show as well. I'm starting to become like Keith Morrison from from all those dateline NBC shows.

He's the guy with the gray hair who every time, no, not Dayline NBC, but almost crime shows. Maybe some of them are dayline where when when the story gets more maccabre and and more grizzly, he goes, oh really, then white hair. That guy Bill Hayter did a great piece on it on SNL. But so when you said the Ravens, I reacted like that, and Mikey and I looked at each other. We're like, oh, I don't know about that one. You we we we sat here in judgment, didn't we?

What do you like? Not? That's not long? Is should enough? With the road? The road? Favorite? Uh? Of course you. I'm sure you'll have the Chiefs down to two and a half as well. Yes, well, I'm I'm debating on taking the Titans down to two and a half was one of my choices. Yeah, I'm I'm debating a little bit there, or or if I wanted, well, what do you get the Packers at a straight six? Straight six? Yeah, that's really where I'm at. Either either the Packers down

to a pick, I'm gonna take that. I'm gonna take the Titans down to two and a half. Uh in this game against UH, I don't think Gardner Minshew is gonna complete his passes nineteen. Come on, the Jaguars cannot be happy with that performance, right, Like, I know they're supposed to be tanking for Trevor, but like if he goes if you're the owner of the Jaguars and you're tanking for Trevor, he goes nineteen for twenty, aren't you secretly like, oh, I'm not a Minshew guy, But yeah,

you gotta look at the look at the performance. Um, I mean, Gail, I'll tell you I will. The other one, it was basically interchangeable with the Steelers as well. So the Steelers at home against the against the Broncos, where you do take that seven and a half down to point and a half. It was basically interchangeable. Either one of those chief chis stas is mine. I like that Steelers defense against what is not technically a rookie quarterback

but might as well be a rookie quarterback. And Drew Lock who, despite seeming to be comfortable more comfortable in that offense that I gave him credit for, perhaps still doesn't throw the ball down field and scaring anyone. So Jerry Judy didn't help him out. That Judy, that's the point, Not Fangio Foley, not Fanny peck Foley. Judy catches the ball, they win that game. Slant pattern lay right off, his cha action stops the class over. Yeah, I agree, Jerry Judy,

rookie white out, Um, he'll be fine. So it was so Kansas City, Baltimore, Kansas City, Tennessee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh. You know what that means, boys and girls didn't work out last week for everybody having Atlanta? Alright, final two questions? Are we already there? Did miss something without without Todd? About taking Todd and taking Brady out? I mean, you cut the time in am Brady's answer. Brady starts an answer messed up. Seriously, Brady gives very very detailed answer.

He does and and and he doesn't change tones either, So maybe that makes seems longer, but this is terrible. Four of us to talk about the previous guests for them for the week gone by. Brady is our leadoff guy year after year. People. I saw the Twitter how everybody was so happy he's still the leader. Your your fans that have been following all ten seasons or eight seasons, they were so happy you kept the tradition of Brady party like it's two thousand eleven. Cannon, Oh, by the way,

has won a super contest. Really yeah, by the way, they have the same number of entries this year as they did when he wanted I want to say, I want to oh yes, by the way, what did you say about that that contest the other day on the radio? Would you say, Well, look, I mean, PAULI says their new sheriff in town, and you know, the group circle Jerk is a little too much around here for me that we got there. But but but listen, I mean, we took you in what four and a half million

dollars we're paying out four and a half million. At the end of the day, Derek's got a TV bill for seventy five thousand for all the advertising we did. And j and John Murray are rolling around in the back room at the West Gate. They raked off the people, so who they're laughing all the way to the bank. That's one way to put it. That's one way to put it. Uh. Let me just say this to the to the loyal beating the book audience and those who go back all the way to Benny dork days too.

What would you say if I invited a son as a guest on this podcast. I want to hear the clamoring for that. I'm open to it. Um actually would actually embrace that, would love it. Final two questions. We've had these final two questions each and every week of this show Forbids Inception. The first of which is which of the big favorites do you believe is the most likely to lose outright? And usually it's six and a

half point favorite or greater. I will not include Well, let's let's include them tonight, just to make it interesting. Cleveland six point favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bungles on Thursday night, Tennessee nine point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yeah, let's call it consensus. Uh. Moving down, Pittsburgh seven point favorites hosting the Denver Broncos. Since I included six above, all

include six here. Green Bay six point favorites hosting the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay eight and a half point favorites hosting the Carolina Panthers, Miami No Buffalo six point favorites, another five and a half we can't include them. Sorry if that's out. Uh. San Francisco seven point favorites against the Jets. Arizona six and a half point favorites against this the Skins calling the Washington football team people, Baltimore seven point favorites against the Texans. Man, there's a lot

of these. Kansas City eight and a half against the Chargers. And then, since we included the six is Noland's six point favorites against Vegas on Monday night. Matt, Of all of those, which is the big favorite most likely to get bounced out? Right? I think it's the Saints. Um. If you look at this, uh, they're gonna likely be

without Michael Thomas. So You're gonna have to have Emmanuel Sanders be your alpha when it comes to the passing game, the guy that just brought in and a guy that again in a weird season with COVID here, no preseason games, not all this, the full trading camp, everything like that. So I don't know how long it's going to be. You could see it was all disjointed with him with

that offense last week. It was anyway not a real factor at all, and so now he's gonna have to step in and be the number one here in week two. I think it's gonna take a few more weeks for him to really get worked into this offense. And so, uh, you know, look, the Saints if if the Raiders are able to bottle up Alvin Kamara and force Drew Brees to have to get it done through the air with you know, Jared Cook and and Emmanuel Sanders here, which

is essentially how this is gonna have to go. I think the Raiders have a really, really good chance of winning this thing outright, So it would be the Saints for me going down on their road trip out here to Las Vegas. Mikey, you have an update in addition to your pick so Todd. Todd has finally gotten back to us. Okay, and I said where are you? Which I texted at ten sixteen. You know, we waited twenty minutes to start the taping of the show six Team Pacific.

Todd says, huh, just finished playing tennis. We knew it. Ask you this. You do a show at a tent and Pacific for an entire year and then you say, last week, Hey Todd, just this one time, Mike, he's got a thing. We gotta do it at noon, and then he just completely he'll blame me. He'll blame me totally. He'll and he'll be upset that we didn't wait perpetuity for the guy. But um, that's right, Yeah, I gotta get I. I don't know that any of these teams are gonna lose. I don't either. You know what I

was like, who made up this question? Force to pick one? Geez? This is really bad? It is hell. It's the it's the it's the forty niners. It's the Jets beating the forty ye Are you sure maybe that was one of them that I considered the forty Niners that bad? Matt? I mean, I mean, there's just they're just so beat

up right now. Offensive line troubles as well. I don't like the Jets, just saying I don't think any of these teams are necessarily gonna lose, but um, you look at this one and they're they're they're really really beat up at the wide receiver position. A ship moving the ball to the air is gonna be a problem. I mean, you kind of look back at that those stats as well, Gil Whenever you look at the forty Niners, what they were able to do last week was also buoyed by

that seventies six yard reception to Raheem Mostert. It wasn't even to a receiver, it was to a back where they were able to get like so the big bulk of the yardage that Jimmy Garoppolo was able to get was even on just a short pass to the running back and everything was done after the catch. And so I don't really like the Jets at all by any stressing imagination. But I mean, this forty Niners team is is really beat up right here early in the season. So of of a lot of these teams, I think

they're they're pretty vulnerable as well. New Orleans or San Francisco. Then for you, officially, I'm gonna still I'm gonna still take the problem is, I don't know the Michael Thomas injury situation, so I guess then, yeah, I mean I don't Yeah, they said he's gonna, you know, try to play. You know this, I'll go ahead and take the forty Niners then, because I don't know that Michael Thomas is gonna try to play, so I'll say the forty Niners.

I'm I have one that might surprise you. Who you going? Finally, I mean, let me, I'm gonna go against Todd Wish and have his favorite quarterback. Um who that is? Uh Lamar Murray as he calls him on the number of the he said in the racial pandemic, he just calls him all the mar Murray. I didn't a pattern. Now, I'm I let's go with with Ron Rivera and the Redskins to upset to upset the Cardinals. But bold, I

didn't need to interrupt you. I don't know. Maybe maybe this is a whole different era here for the one. I mean, they showed a lot of resilience coming off the deck down seventeen nothing, and I thought, but you know, the forty Niners really should have won that game last week, even though Arizona was able to overcome in the second half. I don't like any of these I gotta be honest with you. I wouldn't bet on any of these teams on the money line. But if I so, I have

to give one, I'm gonna give the Washington football team. Yeah. I think the Skins. For I think the Skins are exactly who the who we thought they were. Great front seven, Young was great. He's gonna be the defensive rookie of the year. But I said all offseason, if the Skins can hold their opponent to seventeen points, which ended up being exactly what they held the Eagles to even though they fell seventeen to nothing, fell down seventy nothing, then

maybe they can win football games. But there's nothing about their offense, the Skins offense, the Washing Football teams offense, that leads you to believe that they're going to win a whole bunch. Yeah. The only yeah, the only problem I have with that one, guys, is just that, so the Cardinals are playing at such a breakneck pace, right, I mean, they played at the fifth highest situation neutral rate last week and getting plays off so fast and

getting up there and getting going. And as you mentioned, Gil, how this washing team is gonna go is how that defensive line creates pressure because the offense is not gonna

get it done. It's gonna be on the defense. And can they keep up with this Arizona Cardinals team as they come out and running running place as fast as they can line up with four wides every single time, with all these different options for Kyler Murray and then even when you do pressure him, he has the ability to escape this and get and get stuff done on

on the feet. That's my only kind of issue, uh there, because I think the Cardinals, just with the pace by the time the second half rolls around, gonna be tough on this defense to just continually create havoc on that and then I think that might be the point where the Cardinals kind of take over. Hey, can I asked a triven Jason back behind the scenes driven priduson number seven, Jason,

can we see if we can hook up? Can we hook up Todd on on sky for the last question for the final question and then just include him here because he's crying by text. He's very upset right, he said, nobody told me what time we were doing the show. When you don't have a job, you have no structure to your life. You need some more structure. Toddler's need structure. Uh. The my pick, by the way, green Bay, Okay, I actually think that. Look, there's nothing you can say bad

about green Bay. Four touchdowns, no picks and just a just a mess of yards from Aaron Rodgers. Uh last week against the Vikings. But I mentioned that about the Vikings secondary that you're talking about. Just this the secondary with first of all, no pass rush, right, Daniel Hunter. Uh. Everson Griffin gone to Dallas and god Way didn't give them anything. He was a non factor. And with green Bay last week Aaron Rodgers, who by the way, was twenty excuse me, thirty two or forty four for three

sixty four pardon me? Four touchdowns, no picks, He was never sacked, first full game he played anywhere in Minnesota without ever being sacked, five total yards of offense forty one minutes and sixteen seconds time in possession. But green Bay had its way with the Minnesota defense that was renovated because they paid so much to Kirk Cousins. They

gave so much to Dalvin Cook. So you had Mike Hughes and Holton Hill as your top two cornerbacks last week, with third round draft pick Cameron Danceler saying plenty of action as well. All twenty three or younger Um No Xavier Rhodes, no Trey Wayne's, no Mackenzie Alexander. They all

left in the off season. So I don't know if we can say green Bay is going to be this great every single week, and it would be just like Detroit, who should have killed Chicago last week, to all of a sudden have a completely different result against the Packers. So I'm gonna say the Packers of the big favorites most likely to lose out right, not saying it's gonna happen, but I could. I would not be surprised in the

least bit division. I was super high on the Lions coming into this season, Like I I loved everything about them. Them not having Gola Day last week as well was it was a pretty big thing. It looks like he might be back this week as well, so definitely uptick for that to have that guy out there, so I I can definitely see it. Definitely, do we have Todd wish have available to us guys yet. Know anything, He's not answering. He's still not hit soring. We try to

incorporate him, he's still not answering. Sorry, it was never his fault. No, it wasn't that. Uh, he'll be back next week, trusty. Alright, final question, Let's say we lived in a bizarro world, gentleman, and we had to pick a side and each and every one of these uh sixteen games except for one one game that on the side. You're like, Man, I wouldn't bet this period, even with your money. Matt, what game do you on? No part

of the very first game? As I looked down that I scratched off the list the vikings in the Colts vikings on the road at this Colts team. This line is confusing. The Colts are are favored in this game after laying an egg against the Jaguars. What is gonna go on here? You look at this Minnesota defense and they gave up massively high rushing success rate in week one. So now you look Jonathan Taylor and nine himes come into town for this. Um. Yeah, this, this line, this game,

this everything you know? Let me figure out this Colts team a little bit better and are the Vikings just gonna lay an egg this season? Sitting on that key number three as well? That was the first, very first game this week that I scratched off. I I completely get it because you just don't know based on everything I just said about the Vikings defense, and then you can see the Vikings just destroying them as well. You for me, it's a Sunday night game. I know that. Uh,

it's man's best bet. It's one of my best bets too. Yeah, I don't know. I it will be interesting. I think that Atlanta made the Seahawks look better than they really are, and uh, i'd like to see Camp performing in an environment outside of New England against a division opponent and see what kind of a game plan Belichick comes up for this week. I think it's an interesting game. It's a tough number four, and I don't want any part

of it. I will say now that the well I said I was gonna say now that the numbers four and a half. I will make it at Lanta Dallas. But actually it's the Buffalo Miami game that flum mixes me the most, because is Miami as bad as they were last week or are they every bit as good as I thought they would be in the off season? In other words, the Ryan Fitzpatrick team that closed out

last year. I have Miami Dolphins over. I have them on a future ticket for the a f C East, So I'm not willing after one performance against New England to write them off. So six points is a lot to get. I'm not pulling the trigger on it. I would not be surprised with either outcome. Buffalo wins by ten or more, wouldn't be surprised. Miami wins out right, wouldn't be surprised. That'd be the game for me. That would be it. So what are our best best? Cat?

We review these here? Matt Brown in order has Seahawks, Giants and forty Niners Jets under Yes, I have Panthers, Raiders, Saints over and Giants and Gil You have Seahawks, Browns, Chiefs, yes, sir. And our survivor picks? Did you take those? Now? Do we go to survivor picks? That's what we forgot. I got the Brown. Oh my gosh, we got Todd now too, Matt. What's your survivor pick? Cardinals over the Washington oh As

went right? Against me. Well, I'm not betting in um, let's see, uh, strategic on both of our parts because we probably won't use either the Browns or the Cardinals in another touch. Yeah, that was that went into it as well. I didn't. Yeah, I kind of. I tried to play it is if I were actually still in contest. Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. I would take the Browns this week. I like it. Ladies and gentlemen. Right at the end of the show, while we're doing inventory, it is Todd wishnev. Todd,

what's your excuse? You guys didn't tell him I'm this week? You just said even when we thought we had him, were you effort? Effort? Todd? Okay? And then the teasers, we have teasers. We all have the chiefs Man's combining them with the Ravens. I'm taking them with the Titans, and you're taking them with the Steelers. All right, that doesn't we try to hear me literally the last sentence, Todd Wishnev. Ladies and gentlemen, what's your excuse? Toddy? My excuses?

Nobody told me what time we were doing the megapod. Let me ask you a question, what time did we do it every single week last year. I don't know ten o'clock. Maybe that's right, uh, and this way, but honestly, you ate it one time and then you switch it to another time. So I didn't know that we had an official time yet, Yes, we had an official time. How did your tennis match go, Todd? I played amazing. I beat this guy who I never usually beat, six, four, seven, five.

Are you ready for Matt Brown? Todd? Probably not. I heard Matt Brown's a superstar. What did that mean? Are you ready for Matt Brown to tennis? For tennis? Todd to Matt Brown. Most of the audience didn't get that. Oh interesting, because I heard Matt tennis pennis superstar. I'm just good at beating like old middle aged athletes who have no achilles. I think he think he's referring to sound like me. I resemble that remark, Todd next week,

also slightly portly midwesterners, Todd. Are you able to see us our new set up here at the day? That looks pretty cool? Dude, Get your butt back to Vegas and we don't have to have this error again. Okay, if my good friends Mike and Gil would hook me up, I would be back and taking tomorrow. Oh, trust me, we are your good friends. We are for Todd Wishne. He'll be back next week. Thank you, Matt, appreciate it. Man. I'll see you this evening, Matt Brown. Everybody from MSG

plus is primetime action. The two of us do that with Danielle Alvari and with Kelly Bidlin. Uh seven to ten Eastern right there at MSG plus seven to ten pm. Wall games are going on. Thank you, Mikey, and thank you so much. You have no idea. Again, I cannot stress this enough. This tickles me. Is that the right word tickles? This is terrific. I love to set up so great come a long way? Yeah, man, sure half was that Virginia Slims. Rginia Virginia Slims. I like to

be compared to pioneers on the Ladies Tennis Tour. Good luck with all your bets. Hope we do better this week than we did last. Mikey accepted. Thanks for listening. Good luck with everything. Week two in the National Football League, The paper Back the bo