Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 17 Preview

is there's a lot of space here. People don't get on top of you. It's it's it's built for it. And Sunday we've invited the thirty five remaining survivors Chrissie and Vinnie and on that whole crew. They can come down with us and watch Week seventeen here with Derek and I. And we also invited the top eleven in circum Allien, in the top nine and the fourth quarter to come. So people, if they're in town and they want to sweat with the other folks that are in

it will be pretty good time here. I would never want to do that if I was one of the final thirty five. I have some film crewis here, Chrissy, would you want to do that? By the way, Chris andrews Our esteemed guest on the megapod say good, go ahead, also do on Sunday, so I don't think. Yeah, he's got a gig. It's Todd Wishnet from his mom's cork addict with the south point background here and from Pittsburgh, PA.

How you doing, Toddy. It's good to see you all, and uh, hopefully we will be able to impart some wisdom to the masses today. Um, would you like me to do the recap of the records right now? Well? Yes, but formerly Chris andrews is Our is a rotating guest this week for the scoreliest of all weeks, week seventeen. We have to use the word scorely. Uh, so he's kind enough to join us. You guys could be next

door to each other for all we know. But Chris is actually in Vegas, not at his hometown of Pittsburgh. Give us, give us the court stenographer, give us the uh I know I went oh in three, give us the tally. Well, Chris is actually in the other room next to my my old living room, my old living room which I used to allow two and ten people to sit out with me every day and watch the games at the South Point and had the hot dogs right there for me. But unfortunately, you know, we've got

something difference. Anyways, here's the records. The records. Coming into last week, Gil was in the lead, but Gilly Ice took a little oh in three action to move to twenty to twenty three and three, Mikey one one and one to move to twenty two, twenty two and four, and I had a bad week as well, one and two and I moved to and one. But the teaser world, which is, of course, who's gonna bet pregame except teasers, So that's what really matters. They other records don't matter.

What really matters is who's the best in teaser and I am the best in teasers at eleven and five, Mikey at ten and six and Gill at nine and seven. We all got screwed with Jared Goff. Of course, we need to start a new UM meeting. Instead of just Philip Rivers onymous, there should also be Jared Goff anonymous, because you have to have a mental illness to bet on Mr Goff. Jared Goff out this week out not

playing in the Rams damp, wet, dirty, washcloth white uniforms. Instead, it will be John Wolford of Wake Forest who decided those uniforms were good. Those are the worst. John Wolford, who was a two time Alliance of American Football Player of the Week. Did you know that at a wake Forest? So he's the starter and we don't know if Kyler Murray's playing, so that that is the most scorely of all the games in week seventeen. By the way, how about Derrick Stevens riding in here last week having no

show prep and going three and oh? He had plenty of show prep. We don't find that he didn't Oh, I didn't read that email. Come on, well the teasers, oh and four. We all had the Rams and he had the Washington football team. But he did go three and oh with his straight up picks. To be fair, he had no business winning over forty seven and a half. I had under forty seven and a half in game in the exact same game, in the Raiders Miami game.

He had absolutely no business winning that game. But whatever. Alright, so Christie and I do guessing lines for those listening to the podcast. You know, Christie and I have been doing guessing lines for I don't know eight years, seven years. We we lost count uh spawned spawned, multi media is what it has done, books, best sellers. Uh. Then one day Chrissie's book. But we've we've done with our We're

done with our guessing lines for the year. So I thought it would be great to have Christie on the megapod. And then he reminds me of all the weeks, this is the week you want to have me on. It is really the toughest week. But let's start with well, let's let's do Survivor. Let's just update Survivor real quick. Before we start with Chrissie's first best bet, thirty five left out of dred and ninety eighteen were bounced this week, the most on the Browns. That was a COVID you have?

Did you have people who put in the Browns and then wanted to redo their pick? And one person, only one, and you said look, and we said no, and we showed him the whole history. No one, no one has ever been able to change their pick and Survivor um the rest didn't you know, the rest picked it with full knowledge they had planned you know. The interesting game

was the Texans and the Chiefs. At least five had to be eliminated because five had the Texans and eight had the Chiefs out of the fifty three survivors, so there had to be five go down. Well, Texans didn't play the Chiefs. Texans played the bank. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Yes, yes, that's correct, But Chiefs man, those Chief survivor pickers are very lucky. The interception dropped in

the inside. Should have picked that ball. And then the field goal from Coup looked like it was going right down the pipe. And then at the gust of wind and that kid is great, but the best the gust of winds. So I think my twenty nine and a half in trouble. I'm gonna lose the bet to Derek. I'll owe him a hundred and he gave me five to one plus five dollars on over twenty nine and a half. What was your You might be right, it

might be right. I'm all slightly off with sixty five slightly well, And and here's the big lament, and and I and I have this going. So we lost on the rams. He had the Saints. This weekend would have been his pick. The Ravens would have been mine. Both of those crews, and I had the Coult set up for week seventeen is two touchdown favorites over Indianapolis. So I hate Jared golf in the Rams so much it's not even funny. But I'm not one of the thirty five, Christy.

Apparently on this podcast we let people know that you are. Mike. You already let the cat of the bag. Well, I guess, yeah, well, Derek one of the last thirty five. Derek's been announcing about the war's launch crew from the South Point for six weeks. Yeah, but we on guessing lines. We're all being coy about just like just like crack wins his kit about it once he got six thirty five last I got. Yeah, he's got partners, he did, it's out,

he don't. I have one extremely superstitious about baby names. Christ We allowed to ask you if you have any good teams left, but you could actually take this week and not have to swim it. Well, I mean I have both the Colts and the Ravens available. Oh so you so you're looking beautiful, looking looking pretty? Yeah? Wow, I got a lot of partners. I don't want anybody hitting me up for a loan. I got a lot of partners, so believe me, I'm not gonna Chris, is

it Prince is in an octette? This group that you're in an octette of of of partners, well act you know, it's actually a little more now, Oh my goodness, wow enough to get a good lunch. They all put in fifty bucket. That's a little important if I can't. Did you guys buy five entries or three? Chris? Uh, we bought five, and that contest three and the other one. But um yeah, it's uh yeah, listen, I hope somebody hands me some cash on Monday morning. It's all I

can tell you. But it's not gonna be as much as we were hoping for. We were the only ones surviving. But evidently, obviously, if it's twenty three people or less, it's still six figures and a half. Who was your closest call during the season, Like Gil Gil's closest call that he survived was that ridiculous Raiders Jets game and then of course Goff got him. Did you have a game that was like you were on the brink of

in total disaster and you saved it. Well, we lost on four of the entries, so no, I'm talking about the one on the one you have left. Did you have any close calls where you were like about to be Disasterville and you saved it. I don't remember any of you know, and you know Todd, you never remember the wins. You only remember the losses, you know, So remember let me tell you that will remember the Raiders, Greg Williams and the Jets forever. Yeah I will, yeah,

Gil will. But I first, personally, we weren't involved in that game, so that one didn't matter. Well, if you know you really can't. If I can't win, Christie, I'm glad it's I hope it. I hope it's you, despite the fact that you have twenty seven partners. Um, all right, let's start with these and uh, we'll have things to say about some stuff. I have a John Gruden rant that I have to repeat, and Christie will really be excited to hear me repeat that rant. But let's do.

Can I just say one thing before we start the picks, because I think it's apropos for this week. Please one sentence I would like to say, must win does not mean will win. Must win does not mean will win. It's a thank you. It's a great place to start. By the way, just now over as we're doing this podcast, Ben Ruffles Burger will sit against the Cleveland Browns. That's a little bit surprising to me, really. Yeah, because I'll

tell you why. Because because the Steelers thing. And by the way, Todd, that's a very good way to start. This is Dr Bob used to say, if you're in a must win situation, you must not be that good. So that is a very overrated handicapping thing. Um. But I'm a little surprised, Chrisie. I'll tell you why. On the one hand, they were a team that really needed to buy week because they never really got one except for in Week three or four or whatever that was

when when it wasn't supposed to be. On the other hand, does eighteen minutes of good football allow you to relax? You know? I don't know. How about how about what's you got about sixteen years of great football? Have them sit this week? I mean, but you can tell by the early number. I mean, the early number was seven

built in you? Yeah, I mean, what you think the Browns are seven points better than the Steeler know leg week, of course, not well, it was building into the number and then in and out and then like everybody went crazy. So last I looked, you know, right before I got on the podcast, everybody went the nine and a half. I originally went to seven and a half, and then I saw everybody, I said, well, I'm not going to give him a free shot, so I went to nine.

So if they want to bet me, they could bet nine. I'm just staying under the market because we I mean we we knew it was not gonna be Roethlisburg. I can't believe that the people rushed into the to bet this when they found out officially there wasn't yet. They had to read the tea leaves. They weren't gonna play out. I thought it wasn't see. I thought it was built in, and I read the tea leaves wrong. I thought it was gonna I thought that he was going to play

and then it was gonna go the other way. So silly me. But you're definitely right. It was built in for sure, I mean absolutely. Now, how do you feel about how do you feel about the big brother little brother thing? You think the Steelers Still I still think the Steelers may cover Oh yeah, you know, tid hit it. You know, the musk wind is not necessarily true. I I kind of echoed with Bob said in different verbiage. I said, it's the most overrated thing in sports. You know,

these must win games. You know, I see it, you know football for sure, but we see it in basketball quite a bit too. Must win and then you know there's a reason that, like Bob said, there's a reason there must win situation. They must not be that good. I think this number is way way out of line. All right, what's your number one best bet? Christie? We start with you. Well, I'm thinking about making it the Steelers, but I'm not gonna go there yet. I'm sure we'll

talk about that a little later. But I'm thinking it's the Seahawks over the forty niners. I think that number right now just looks a little cheap. Uh, you know, five seems to be the consensus. Excuse me. Uh, you know, the Seahawks are just playing pretty good football. Their defense has finally come around after you know, really a horrendous start. Now they played some weak opponents in the last couple of weeks, and I'm sure of improved their defense of statistics.

But nonetheless, you play who you're playing, and this forty Niner team, you know, Gil we've talked about it on guessing the lines. You know, they've just had so many different issues. I think it's a well coached team. I think it's a really good organization and all that. But they've had as many injuries this year pretty much as as many as I can remember a team having. And not just injuries, but you know, pro bowlers, all pros, and you know, besides the quarterback there down to their

third quarterback. UM, there's just a lot of issues there. They've been on the road for the last month, even though it's a quote unquote a home game. You know, I just think there's a lot of things that I know, if I was a forty Niner just mentally have to think, Okay, this thing is just about over. Where's the Seahawks? UM probably playing their best ball of the season right now. I think that five number looks a little cheap, So

that's gonna be my best bet Seattle. Yeah, San Francisco, no fault of their own, just what a what a hand they've been dealt this year. Seahawks can clench the number one seed. They already clinched the NFC West. They can clinch the number one seed with a win, a New Orleans loss, and a Green Bay loss to Chicago. So Seattle pick number one. Mike Palm, Ladies and gentlemen, Derek, what are you making it? Five or five and a half? Five and a half? No man's land, Mike Palm, Ladies

and gentlemen. The vice president of Operations at at Circus Sports, Derek Stevens, conciliary numerono. I have to believe that Alex Smith is ready to play for the football team. And I don't think that Jalen Hurts is going to be able to beat them through the air because they're not gonna let them run the ball. That defensive front is too good. They're gonna make Jalen Hurts throw the ball.

I'm not sure what Phillies motivation is here. You know, they thought they had this division in the bag all year with that tie, and they were always a half game ahead, and they were always you know, and you know, teach me how to Doug ee at the quarterback whisper

and all that. So in this Sunday night spectacular to fin the year, and we won't know who the benefactor is of a of a Washington loss until the Giants and the Cowboys play for the right to be the the right to be the standing if the Philly does beat them. But I just I have to believe that the Washington football team is going to win this game. I'm I'm going to step in and say that's my number two pick as well. I've already bet it. What do you have as a number? The number and a half?

That's too mainly now, I think Todd I got two. I see a lot of two. Yeah to Washington US too. As long as it's under three, I'm all about it. I already bet it at minus two. Uh. I totally believe that they made the Dwayne Haskins move thinking that Alex Smith will be available. Taylor Heineke would go if not Alex Smith. Washington's record since the start of the

eighteen season. Again, for those who listen to guessing lines, for give me for repeating a few of these, but Washington's records since the beginning of the twenty eighteen season ten and five with Alex Smith starting, six and twenty with other starting. And again, that's the other big headline we should start with here. Today, the NFL has legislated

out the possibility of correlated parlays. So the early window on Sunday, all the teams in the a f C who are either going to be in or out of the playoffs, the Miami, Baltimore's and Cleveland's of the world, they play in the early time slot, the late afternoon time slot. It's a f C South winners. It's either gonna be Indianapolis or Tennessee. The team's buying for the number one seed in the NFC. Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are playing and the NFC ins and outs.

Will they make the playoffs? Will they not? Uh? And then of course the nightcap is the stand alone between Washington and Philadelphia to determine ultimately the NFC East champion, with the Dallas Giants winner looking on all right, by the way, quirks, just since we bring up the Giants, the Giants could win the division or pick third in

the NFL draft. That's how big their chasm is. Six and ten could win a division in the n SEE the East, and eleven and five could miss the playoffs in the a f C. So Mikey's number one is Washington. That's my number two. Todd, you're number one. First of all, obviously, this week is ridiculously hard. Um, I'll just preface by saying that I'm gonna take a little team. Um. First, well, I'm gonna ask you who, what number do you have for the New York Football Giants plus three? Okay, then

I'm definitely taking it. Give me the New York Football Giants plus three against the Dallas cow Girls. Now they got to the window for me. Last week, I saw a star back to Drew Pearson or whatever, Aikman to Irvin, I don't know what that was. With the beige water pistol to uh you know, Ceedee Lamb and whoever else. Gallup was scoring a touchdown every ten seconds. It was fantastic. I don't believe it. The New York Giants are good

on defense. Now we've got a Dallas team that is incredibly up and down all season, with great one week, terrible the next week, all that other craziness. The Giants are gonna play defensive football. Now, granted, they're not good on offense, we all know that. But now you're only asking me to be at home and keep it close. I'm gonna take the New York Giants. I'm gonna take the plus three. I know Zeke's coming in with, oh, I'm great, Give me the porridge. I wanna eat the porridge,

nonsense and everything. Give me the Giants plus three. Let Dallas be Dallas. Dallas is who we thought they work. Who said Dallas is who we thought they were. They're in consistent. Give me the Giants plus three. Why did you decide that Zeke was eating porridge in those things? When he minds that the thing where he gets a run, he gets a four yard run and he starts eating porridge whatever he's eating. It's ridiculous. What was the last time you think you had porridge? Todd had's always been

a big Goldilocks fan. Looks like a guy who's like eating out of a bowl of I don't know, maybe porridge. Oliver twist. It's right, it's all Oliver twist. Oliver twists. All right, Christy, you're number two porridge. I don't I believe I've never had porridge. I'm gonna stand by that. I think you know. By the way to two little things,

because we're both games were mentioned. We have two games where home dogs have gone to road favorites, uh and one one being the Cowboys and depending on the why where you were with you know, and it could be Washington was also a home dog. Depending anyway, my second best bet, I think I'm gonna go with the Steelers, you know, plus the nine and a half. I just think that's, uh, you know, a ridiculous over adjustment. It's still most of the most of the Steelers defense I

think will play. But I mean, you never know what Tomlin. Uh. But still they have enough in there that I think that they keep this game close. We're talking about nine and even nine, nine and a half, whatever number you want to give me there. It's like Chris, we'll give you a ten, right, Okay, Yeah, Well I'm off my don best right now. When I when I got onto the screen here, I'm still looking. I got the south

point numbers. Here, I got my computer. We are still at nine, but I got some action on the minus nine, so we may be going to ten soon. Anyway, give me the Steelers. I just think that's a ridiculous overadjustment. One back of the theme we talked about earlier, the must win means you must not be that good and you know, the Browns. You know they've been good, and actually part of me even wants to see them in the playoff guy kind of like Baker Mayfield. But this

number is just ridiculously high. So give me the Steelers. I'm gonna. I'm gonna. I'm gonna tell you right now, I think at nine and a half. But don't hold on one second. But let me just make sure you guys see nine and a halfs and tens, I see ten plus. So fine, all right, let's let's give the man a ten. If you're gonna give him the ten, that you gotta give me the ten because that's my no, no, no, I don't want to start that nine and a half because then you're gonna take advantage nine and a half.

Some I know you, so nine and a half both and Chrissy, that was my number one player I already the two bets I already made were Washington in Pittsburgh. And clearly I anticipated what Pittsburgh was gonna do incorrectly because I really thought that Mike Tomlin again, I get it, they need to buy. They got screwed on the bye week with that Tennessee Titans outbreak. Earlier in the year, but I really thought they were gonna be like, you know what, we're not good enough to chill here, But

apparently they are. Mason Rudolph will be their starting quarterback. But you give me nine and a half, I'll take Pittsburgh all day long. I think there's a big brother little brother thing that's happening with Cleveland too. I think they're gonna do everything they can to knock those guys out if they can. So that's my number one. Washington is my number two. That's what I've actually been already your number two, sir, Well, I'm going to continue with

the trend. Every Rams home game has gone under this year, really into so fine, and now it looks like they'll be without their starting quarterbacks. They are out without them, and maybe Kyler too. You know, there's been something wrong with this Arizona offense all year. They're just the timing is not their Kingsbury's offense. It's something's missing. And even when they beat Dallas on that Monday night when they ran him out of Jerryworld, there was just something wrong

with that offense. I've been saying that since that game. Todd, do you even see a total for this game? You know. I was just gonna say, I, I'm looking at this thing, and all I see is five dimes pick them thirty nine and a half. The only thing that's the only thing I see two is five times. I see a circle has thirty nine and a half. One of the smaller books in town, Chrissie, do you have a number

posted for Arizon in the Rams? I didn't post that game just and it's not because of the Rams, even though they're gonna play at Wolford, because we know that I'm worried about Kyler Murray. Uh, it sounds like he's gonna at least attempt to play, but you know, kil I mean, any chance to even look it up? Who's this backup quarterback? I don't even know it's a straveler.

So when we were watching on Primetime Action, Uh, the show that I do on MSG plus with Matt Brown, Daniel Vary, and Kelly Bidlin, we had a Cardinals game the night where Kyler Murray was was hurt in the middle of it, and we don't know if it was gonna go come back, and I asked, I go around, I go quick, name who their backup quarterback is in case he came and nobody could name him Chris Straveler. They also have from he played the CFL, he went,

he did he played college in America? Yeah, Minnesota and South Dakota or something like, wow, okay, that's a too big of a drop off for me without knowing, you know, I'm just I'm not gonna put that game up till I get, you know, a little more conclusive evidence as to who actually is gonna be under Shanner for for Arizona Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the CFL. They also they also have Brett Hundley on their roster for u c l A. So what does what does that mean? Todd?

Are we not allowing him to pick this? I mean it's up to you. You're the senior administrators. Just on ahead and you go ahead and a half? All right? This is this is for all the regular season marbles? Under sure? Sure? Is? Is that is that a big a pot? Is the I heart chayouts? I'm not sure going to say that was the easy joke to make out there. All right, So he's taking so he's taking under thirty nine and a half in Arizona in the Rams. Yes, now it's time for fast money again. Where does that

come from? No, no one knows. By the way, I did eat porridge once, me and my ex wife had porridge in the Hate District in San Francisco. It's a true story. It's like a crab and lobster porridge. It's like they put some kind of narcotic in it, and we were dizzy the rest of the evening. It's like they put some weed in there or something. San Francisco porridge. How many year? More than a decade, not not twenty

between the between ten Tony. It's too bad. Brent Musburger's not the I guess today because then Mike could ask him. Do you remember that time with Phyllis George back in seventy seven that you guys ate brig and it was so incredible? Were the greatest that? By the way, brand and can you tell us more about Catholic judges and how great Notre Dame is? Thank you. I I like to ask him about Charles Canteen. He always says, nobody remembers Charles Canty. Charles Canty still riding on a horse

interviewing people. I remember one day when she showed up. I remember thinking I've watched CBS Sports for my entire childhood. I don't remember Charlesie Canty, and they acted like she had been there forever. We had Jane Kennedy on my guys in the desert. I know you did. Oh okay, okay, I'm sorry about that. Um all right, oh Todd number two Okay. My second pick is gonna be involving a game with the team that a lot of people like. And it's this team that I will tell you about

right now. It goes like this fits Magic Dolphins. Fits Magic Dolphins. Never count them out against Bruton fits Magic Dolphins. They're dead to rights. But then you can throw it pass without even saying where you're throwing it too. Thank you, Raiders secondary, the extra little background, the secondary. Okay, I would I would like to take the Miami. It's Chris, Just so you know, I'm not just singing because I'm

a lunatic. I happen to also be a lunatic. But I'm singing because if I don't sing the Miami Dolphins song every week on the pod, people crazy. They love it. So anyways, let me have Miami against the buff Bills over the forty seven and a half and The reason is I think there might be a fit sighting again. If there is a fit sighting again, then I think they can score points against the Bills defense. The Bills are extremely good on offense, but they're a little bit

like Kansas City. They're not great on defense. They give up points if you if you're you know, halfway decent on offense. So give me the Bills to score even against Miami's tough defense. The Bill seem to be able to score against everybody. Josh Allen has just taken gigantic leaps and bounds from a guy who was basically just a runner who couldn't throw to Now, all of a sudden, you could do everything. The guy looks amazing. So give

me Bills to score points. And I think if fits he comes in, he can lead us to some you know, um blindfolded passes for touchdowns against you know, idiot defenses, and uh, I think we can go over the forty seven and a half there. Uh. You know, Look, it's a tough week, but I think if it its magics in we'll get some points. Is this the game that will determine the Coach of the Year. Brian Flores versus Sean McDermott. Where's Ron Rivera? Is still the guy? If

he wins? MM? I don't know. What do you guys think I would vote for Sean Payton if I if I had a vote, if you had a bote, and then my next choice would be Florence Peyton versus for Maybe Florence is blowing this by playing to I don't I don't know if it's his decision. Oh, I think it's his season, and I think it's it's I said it like four or five weeks ago. What happens when there's a game like it's to make the playoffs or not the playoffs? Not to make the playoffs? What will

he do? Will he stick with his two and thing? Well, we got their answer last week. He went to the bullpen and he got to it. He's gonna do it again. I don't get it. Do you remember the Dolphins when they had Woodley was the quarterback and they would bring in Don Strock when Woodley was screwing it up, never lost. The Skins beat him in Super Bowl seventeen. That way Woodley started Strock is unbelievable. With the Steelers, Yeah, Woodley right up with the Steelers and he was terrible on

the Steelers. He was horrible. David Woodley started Super Bowl seventeen for the Dolphins. Rigo to the House, Joseph Jackson Gibbs Super Bowl champion. I can still remember remember where I was as an eleven year old in my grandparents house in um in Philadelphia when the Dolphins were playing the San Diego Chargers. And my favorite play in the history of the NFL is when he throws that little out passed and they do the picture U back to

the guide streaking down the sideline. I think it was Tony Nathan, you know the what do they call that play? Hooking ladder, which is my favorite play. We used to do that all the time when we would play school, hooking lateral shooting ladders. I thought, alright, so so Christie will indulge me. I'll try to do the abridged version of this in sixty seconds because I'm curious what Mikey and Todd have to say. I think Jon Gruden is getting railroaded by the media for his decision to go

for a field goal. I think it was absolutely the right decision. I think it's the most most glaring example of people judging by the result, not the process. Nineteen seconds left going up a field goal, he has a nine win probability. A similar comp to that has only happened once. Defeating a team at that point has only happened once in the last twenty years. The famous Aaron Rodgers to Richard Rogers play in Green Bay against Detroit

five years ago. Everybody's focusing on the fact that Fitzpatrick made the greatest play in the history of mankind with his helmet wrenched with mac Holland's open, instead of focusing on the fact that they let Derek Carr neil with six seconds left on the play clock, and that Damon Arnett, who they overdrafted at nineteen been on the flat pattern in the same way that Lamar Jackson been on the flat pattern against Henry Ruggs in the Raiders Jets game.

Hate John Gruden for a lot of things, and believe me, I do Khalil Mactrade being the first top of the list, but I have no problem with him settling for that field goal, and everybody's murdering him, and to me, it's the biggest example of group think I've ever seen. Am I writer? Am I wrong? I'd like to Chris andrews, um, I think I just agree with Gil. I think, uh,

you gotta go get the points, you know. I think I think you do you know, and uh, you know, I understand all the things you're saying about the you know, all the metrics and all that. I get that, but I think you've got to go get the points. And I think there's some psychological stuff, uh involved with your team that uh, you know, sometimes all the metrics don't don't back. And you know, I understand that from from

Gil's point of view. You know, that's why well you'd imagine his uh show might be called a numbers game just because of that. That's right. But I think it's it's all there's I think there's some emotion involved to it, and personally, I think he should have gone for the bet.

I'll say a few things. I think if Fitzpatrick completes the pass down the middle and they get it up to the forty five yard line and they try another pass and they're left with the Hail Mary and they don't score, no one says a word about of course, here's the second point. I think they're correct to stop at the one on second down because you don't want to leave him with a minute forty. I don't care. They have no tell. You can't leave him with a

minute forty. However, once you've run it down to a minute and you have your third I think you're supposed to try to score the touchdown on third and goal from the one, and if you don't, then you kicked the field goal and you leave him twenty seconds. But I think because you have Waller, you have a good chance of making it two. You can go up seven, so that the worst result is over time. Dodd, I am one thousand million percent with gilt. That's my guy.

That's shocking. That's by the way. I love. I love the tell guilty's wrong. I'm the best. Okay, I love telling him he's wrong. But he is the best. He is the best to tell over three thousand lifetime. I didn't go to Stanford, so I must not be that break. But okay, here's the deal. One, whether it's one minute to go, one forty to go, what you guys are arguing for is get a touchdown and go up by seven.

So even best case scenario, Mike scenario, there's a minute left and you're up by seven or five right, that's what we're talking about. So you're saying that there's a better percentage chance of winning a game with a minute left up by five or seven, then there is with fifteen seconds left, the other team has no time out. Nineteen. That's another there's four nineteen. But that was what Derek Carr I said. If you want to criticize anything, he

criticized Derek Carr for not taking the final six second. Yeah. Well, first of all, obviously Derek car should do that. But let's just let's even give you the nineteen. I'll give you the nineteen, okay, So now you you what a match My point is, So I'm saying, because Gill's right, the Car should run around a little bit before he fell down. That was that was obviously true. But aside from him snapping it at six, he should have even run around a little bit and taken a couple more

seconds off. But even if he doesn't, long at nineteen seconds. So now they have the ball at their own twenty five with nineteen seconds left and no timeouts. I've watched a billion football games. Everybody back to the forty yard line, don't let anybody get out of bounds. Throw it over the middle for six yards, tackle him. Game over done, Zo, you have a much better chance of winning that game than if you give another team up five or seven

with a minute ago. You could score touchdown in a minute. Now. It's not likely, but it's let's say there's a ten percent chance they get a touchdown. Don't tell me there's a ten percent chance they get a field goal if you executed properly. But if you let a guy run down the sideline so wide open that I mean, is this your first football game in your entire life? What are you doing? A big white tight end is running down the sidelines alone. Uh sorry, it's not the fact

that he's white, but I just meant he's slow. It's a big slow end down the sidelines, running alone with no one even near him. What are you doing? It's craziness. You've You've earned yourself another year on this podcast with that ran right there. But Todd, if they kick and the field goal kicker from Miami can kick it from the moon. If they kicked the field goal, you lose.

If they score the touchdown, there's a five does not save you, Okay, if you're assuming they missed the two, you've got No, I'm saying there's a fifty fifty chance they're up seven, and then you can't loose and the field is much more condensed once you get down to the twenty. It's much harder to score a touchdown than it is to move the ball from the twenty to

the forty. There's just so what you're saying is there's more of a chance to get a touchdown from your own twenty five with a full minute to play than it is to get yourself with the biggest kicker of all time. It's also not for sure the kicker can make a sixty seven goddamn yarder. What about that, either, Todd. That's a good point the cow the Cowboys couldn't do it in the playoffs kick in nineteen or to beat Seattle, and then in Minnesota couldn't kick an extra point to

beat Seattle Seattle. Todd, what do you think about the the end then of the of the game with the coastal Carolina and Liberty and how Liberty did that? That was even more wick. I mean, there's similarities there. It was amazing that it was surreal that they were happening at the same time, and I had Liberty I had Liberty plus the points, and I'm like, this is gonna be the worst push in the history of mankind. What Mike He's referring to is that Liberty had the ball.

All they had to do was running down kick a game winning field goal win as a seven point dog. They did, in fact, go down to the ground on one down, and then the offensive lineman apparently didn't get the memo. On the subsequent play, he tried to push the running back in the running back fumbled. Coastal Carolina recovers. What's that was the running back's fault? He First of all, he while I was even running towards the goal line on first down, he did it correctly. He just stopped

right there. In second down for some reason, he starts running forward like a lunatic so that they could try to get him into the ends of By the way, I lost on both those games. I lost under seven and a half. In the Raiders game, which I had no business. The score was sixteen all with four minutes left in the game. How do you lose that? And then the Liberty game, I deserved to lose because I took minus five and a half on the end. Game

like an idiot. But even so, I'm not so sure that that kid didn't get dragged into the end zone before he fumped out. There was no there was no replay to overturn it, but it looked to me like he might have actually been in. Maybe maybe. No, Yeah, we we couldn't tell. Chris has got a heart out, so we gotta keep going. Here, Christie, your third and final pick. Oh, I gotta pick one more? Huh Okay, yeah, yeah, I know. We get to the part what game would you like to pass on? I'd like pass on. Uh,

I gotta go for one more. Can you come back to me? Absolutely, Mikey, I'd like to pass on the remaining fourteen games, right? Does everybody want to pass on the third pick? Well, there's no passing, do you think because I gotta win this, there's no passing Packers packers. Packers need to win to get the one seat to get to buy. Okay, if they you end up in a three way tie with Seattle in New Orleans, Seattle

gets the ones. Listen. If I'm being authentic, that's my third pick two, so which means our our pick will come down to Pittsburgh for me, and you're total total? Which is it was question? Okay, green Bay is my number three. I just think I've never seen more effortless football than what I see from Aaron Rodgers right now. I've seen better football. There have been better teams, but I've never seen someone who seems to have so much command of the field without any worry whatsoever pre snap

post snap. He's all good, he's all good about it's I've got green Bay minus five and a half? Is that what the number is? Taught? I have minus? Yeah, it's some yeah, mostly five and a half. Okay, Todd your number three, third and final. So wait, Mikey and Giller both green Bay minus five and a half. So

Mike and I come down the game. So I wanted to go Stealers too, but I'm a little worried about our football team one half, and Philip Rivers, being a very good, kind evangelical who likes to give charity to other people, giving us a football game doesn't in any way make me feel like the Pittsburgh Stillers can hang in as that football game. Even though I do like your whole idea of plus nine and a half, I

think they probably won't cover that. But I'm gonna do a different game than that I will do for my third pick. I will do the under fifty and a half in the Green Bay Bears game. And here's the deal. First of all, I don't know what the weather is gonna be, but it is Chicago. I mean, it's Tuesday. It's hard to know exactly what the weather is gonna be on Sunday, but it is Chicago. And from what I've heard in December and Chicago, it has a tendency to be a bit nippy. So you've got the possibility

of very cold. Maybe not this week, who knows. The point is, the Bears have gotten healthy on offense, not against the real teams. Look at these teams that they're scoring points on. Everyone's like, wow, Trubisky might actually be a quarterback. He scored forty one against Jacksonville. Me and you, Gil could score forty one against Jacksonville. He scored thirty three against Minnesota. It's no longer the good Minnesota defense. Houston they scored thirty six. Houston doesn't have a defense.

Detroit they got thirty in a lost. Detroit has no defense. They got twenty five against Green Bay, but two of those were touchdowns. When they were down a zillion points in the fourth quarter. They have not done this against a real defense. Now, all of a sudden, it's the last game of the year and they've got to play a real team Green Bay. I'm not saying they're vaunted on defense, but they're decent team on defense. I don't

see Trubisky doing all this ridiculous. I'm a good quarterback stuff against Green Bay and the Bears have a decent defense, So maybe they can hold Rogers to twenty eight or something. So here's the deal, one Packers, it's under fifty and a half. Give me under fifty and a half. I do not believe in Troubinsky, and I do believe this is a Troubinsky mirage. Green Bay has the number one seat on their racket. They win, and they got to buy in the NFC christ number three. Okay, I am

gonna go for the New York Football Jets. I don't what are you gonna give me? Plus three is what I have it on my board right now. Yeah, it looks like the predominant, you know, I mean Bilichick and I don't what's he gonna do? I mean, Cam Newton cannot play football. And he had some of those passes that were just so far wide open that he usually underthrew. Can't play Stidham. I'm not sure what Stidham can do either.

I know he was actually a big recruit coming out of high school, but you know that that's uh seven years ago. Uh And he does he look like he's enthused. I know he threw down the phone and threw down the clipboard and all that. I don't know. And this just would be so much like the Jets to win out and then all of a sudden, say, you know what, I think Adam Gaze might be the right work. Look at the way we finished the year, and he deserves another year. And this would just be so typical of

the Jets franchise to do exactly that. And so I'm gonna take the Jets plus three over the path. Bills became the first division opponent of the Patriots in the last nineteen years last night to sweep the Patriots two games in two games the last nineteen years. And the Bills blow out of the Patriots last night, didn't didn't it look like Chris that the Bills were having all their fun last night and now they were going to

shut it down this week. I mean, they were letting him do all kinds of things run against him, trick play and all this when they were way up on doing it. That looked like that was their partying regular season shot with their normal offense. Well, if you remember, and I think it was the Bills. I couldn't. I

could be wrong. When Bilichick was up while the up winning like fifty six nothing or something like that, and somebody complained after the game, like jeez, come on, he said, well, if you don't like it, to go out and stop. That was against Joe Gibbs two point oh in the Washington Redskins, and you never forgave him for it. Yeah, and then yesterday he was kind of pissing and moaning for the same thing that the Bills were doing this to him. You know. I mean, there's a lot of

people want to take out some revenge. I'm Doe Belichick, and uh, you know, I don't know if the Jets can actually do it, but I think you know, listen, like I said, I just see the scenario with the Jets doing exactly what I said they're gonna do. It seems like a typical thing for what a Jet franchise would do. And I don't know. I mean, if you're if you're a uh, if you're one of the Patriots, you gotta can't wait to get out of this season, you know, just fold up your tent and get out

of here. And at least the Jets and they're they're playing hard for whatever reason. I don't know it's because Adam Gaze or whatever, but you know, you know, they're they're playing decent football all of a sudden. I just I think the past just kind of don't show up this week. I really do. I think the Chargers end up with Anthony Lynn because of a late season surch

they may end up seven and nine the Chargers. They're gonna keep Anthony My my producer for a numbers game, young Jason con who's behind the scenes here, has a chair at Stidham to win the NL and and when the NFL m VP ticket from this year, I shot, never you never know, you're judging humans. Voting could go that way. You never know. Um. I wanted us to post Sarah Fuller as for Heisman, but the guys weren't doing I think I think sheould get plenty of votes.

I mean the perfectly executed kick off at an extra point. Let's not get political, Amy Coney Barrett, what's political I'm talking. I'm talking about you. Was because he just lead. She was SEC player of the week, the best she was player of the week, and the best conference in college football. Okay, that's silliness. And we all know it's silliness. And we're not going to get into why it's silliness. We all know it's silliness. Thank you, all right, Teaser teasers of

the week, because we gotta keep it moving. Christie, do you want us to come back to you at the end. No, I I actually had my teaser ready. I know we were going three deep on that. By the way, I just got a text from the book. Uh, the Bills are assumed to be sitting a lot of players. That numbers dropped four and a half to three, four and a half to three now on the Buffalo billiards. Yeah, I just checked. It looks like it's pretty much everywhere gone.

This is totally the information week, just all about info. How about any game guilt? How about in game two? Yeah? Air, but I said this week, you gotta move on Air. You just got to can't help it. That's what you told. Yeah, my teaser of the week. Okay, I'm gonna use the Steelers again plus fifteen and a half and I'm gonna go for the Broncos plus eight and a half. Um, you know the Raiders they you know once again. Um, you know, I like a home team in this spot.

I think these home dogs on and you know, I know this this year is squirrely. How many times we use that we're still I think we're still on the under, but it's very squirrely. But I think you know the Raiders, Um, you know, they've had the rug pulled out from under them. And you know the Broncos Fan Joe's announced that he will that they will retain Fanjio. He'll be back next year. Uh. You know, so you're getting over a touchdown at home.

You know Todd mentioned we could have some weather. I haven't really checked that out yet, but Denver could be very volatile. Uh, even with weather patterns predicted five days in advance, so you have a chance for some weather. I would definitely, Uh, I take the Broncos plus eight and a half. Get over a Touchbakey. I'm gonna take the Vikings down to one against this helpless Lions team. And then I'm gonna take the Seahawks down to a pick. God, God, wait,

I'm getting down make these things. Mikey is Minnesota minus one and Seahawks. Actually you get Seahawks plus a half. Well, if it's a tie. If it's a tie, you end up winning. Mikey, would you like to win on a tie? Okay? What? Uh? My My teaser is the New York Football Jets plus the nine. And I almost made it as one of my picks as well. I loved everything Chris had to say. And here's the thing. Stidham is not a quarterback. Last night, when I saw Stidham come in, I immediately went under

fifty six immediately. I've watched it him a thousand times. The guy is terrible. He is not a real quarterback. And Cam Newton forget him. We don't even know what he is. But Stidham is a joke. I mean, he is embarrassing. He's Duck Hodges bad. That's how bad stid Him is. He's Duck Hodges. Okay, stid Him is not even getting you backdoor touchdowns. If you can't get backdoor touchdowns in the NFL, down thirty eight to nine against the team that doesn't even care. You can't score when

the team's trying on defense. And guess what, the Jets are still trying, folks. They're still trying. All you have to know is they're still trying. So I want the Jets plus the nine against Stidham or whoever whatever other garbage quarterback the Patriots throw out there. Give me the Jets plus nine and give me the Giants plus sign it's in all New York teaser for me, the Giants plus the nine because I already talked about why I

like the Giants and the Jets plus nine. It's not to be New York, New York dot dot dot dot dot dot teaser. New York, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, No, no, no, Jets and Giants. I have no. I got Jets and Steelers. Okay, Jets, yeah, Jets for all the reasons you state. I just don't see how a New England team as more abund as they are on offense and Jets to play every week to win. And then Steelers, I already have them a t s. I'm definitely taking in the teaser there, alright.

Final two questions, which are the big favorites is the most likely Blues out right this week? UH six and a half point favorites or Greater Tampa Bay six and

a half point favorites against Atlanta. Tampa Bay trying to jockey for the number five seed so they can play the NFC East winner at the number four seed Minnesota UH six and a half seven point favorites, somewhere in that pocket at Detroit Cleveland now nine and a half hosting Pittsburgh Baltimore eleven and a half or twelve at Cincinnata, UH Tennessee seven and a half at Houston and New Orleans six and a half at Kaka Laki. Chrissie most likely lose out right. Chris Andrews most likely to lose

out right? Yeah, I was Oh, we didn't hear you. I was stuck there from love. I've been stuck for about a minute there. What was the question, Which of those big favorites is the most likely to lose out right? Well, I hope I dodged that bullet. Whatever it is. I'm not sure which way we're going yet. Which favorite most likely to lose out right? Six and a half points Greater Okay, I would say the Bucks. Um, the Bucks interesting six and a half, you know, I mean Atlanta

Atlanta plays close, place, close, place close. One of these days they're gonna hit a thirty nine yard field goal for uh something like that, and uh, you know, I'm still, you know, whatever it is, I'm still not a sold on the Bucks. Um. You know, they seem to have come alive certainly after the after there by, but I still have some question marks here. And I think if we had to find one that has a chance to lose, I would say most likely Tampa Baye. Atlanta has lost

four straight, all by five points. Are fewer. Seventh loss against the Chiefs in a in a one possession game. The loss of the Chiefs was their seventh in one possession games this year. Mike, I agree with the Bucks, and I think their defense is not as good as we think. We remember that game against Green Bay where they intercepted and harassed Rogers, and we keep thinking about

that ceiling in our mind. But it's defense. On a weekend week out by Matt Ryan moved the ball up and down the field against him in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. At least he did in the first half of the that game. So uh, and and without that questionable spot where they moved the ball forward that they might have a shot to win on the end.

That I mean, I'm probably with you, guys. I mean, if it just if I was going to go with another one that that that looks like something, I wouldn't be totally shocked out of my brains if the Texans pulled an upset. Even though the Texans are abysmal, the Titans have no defense, so the only they have to win by scoring a zillion points. What happens if, you know,

for some reason they get some turnovers or something. I mean, I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but I wouldn't shock me if the Titans lost third time in the past four games, and the Texans have had a chance to win or tie a game late but lost the fumble instead. That's what they did against the Bengals this last week. I don't know if the Shawn's playing or not. Why would you plu him. I'll say, Tampa Bay. I think it's Tampa Bay for all you know, Again, Atlanta, they're

in every game. Tampa defense remembered Gil a number of weeks ago, I kept saying the defense on Atlanta is good. They held, they hold what's his name? The seventeen points aero shots corroborates it with these d b O A final question, then, Chrissie, if you had to play every single one of these games in the bizarre world on the line, but you've got one free pass, you could pick like ten games this week, what would your number

one choice be? Well, my number one choice would be the Cardinals and the Rams, because I mean the Rams, we know who the quarterback is. I have no idea if he could play at all. And uh, the Cardinals. Even if you do have a Kyler Murray um, so much of his game is, you know, his ability to scramble and create kind of on the run outside the pocket. I don't know if that ability is gonna be compromised. I imagine it would be this week even if he does.

Way if he doesn't play, You've got some guy that I've never even heard of in my life before this show. So that would be the game that I would stay awaiver. That's my game too. I feel like every one of my answers on this podcast this week have been someone already stated them with the exception of maybe one. That's how weird. Week seventeen is Mikey Chargers Chiefs. Chargers Chiefs, Chiefs should be sitting everybody. I'll go with Chargers Chiefs too.

You know you've got the Lyn factor and you've got the Who's playing factor, So just keep me out of that. Okay, Sorry to everybody. Weeks seventeen is odd. We did our best. Mikey and I going for the regular season uh title here Todd trying to preserve his teaser title. Chrissie, thank you, Chris Andrews. Everybody, my mishbocha from the South Point Hotel Casino. He's got a radio gig. He's gotta get to the name of the book. Then one day. Wait before Chris leaves. Chris,

how are you doing health wise? I haven't seen you in a long time. I'm doing great. Thanks. Yeah, everything everything's been really good. Thank you. Yeah. Thanks. I'm glad to hear that. Thank you for asking that, Todd. I should have asked that, but I see Chrissy every week where I talked to Chris every week, so I didn't even answer. But for the megapod audience, that's a fine question. Don't don't go buy my book after I'm dead, you know. Oh, let's say you buy it now or I could you know,

I think I get about three bucks a shot. Yes, that's a very honest, very honest promotion of it. I heard, I heard, Chris that your book had to go into another printing with the number bill Ad has required from all the new visa and subscriptions. Uh, we've had a couple of printings, you know. So, I mean it's it's been good, it's been good. All right, Chrissy, go do your thing. You got a gig. I appreciate it. Thank you for doing Week seventeen, and I'll talk to you Monday.

Well we won't do guessing lines, but you'll start the show with me, okay, for for every wild card week? All right, Chris Andrews, everybody, good luck, Thank you, Mikey, thank you, Todd, good luck to Chris. And survivor. Good luck, Yes, good luck and survivor. So you in your twenty six partners can split it. Yeah, I can get out of this. And that's nice that you guys are having everybody over here to sweat that out. I would never attend that. Gotta be kidding me. I'm always going to come if

he was doing it all right. Good luck to everybody Week seven see thank you for listening to the megapod. We will have a megapod throughout the playoffs. Wild Card week next week. Good luck,