Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview

preferred spot. Yes, do you really? I said, Derek, I said, you spent a billion dollars and you couldn't top our Canada Mark Canada's where we broadcast live from the d. UH Todd wishing it from his mother's cork Addict in Pittsburgh, PA. With his Pittsburgh Steelers decal behind him is logo, how you doing, Todd? You're good. I'm doing great. I feel attacked already, but I'm doing great. I was before the show.

We Todd feels attacked, but he was really the one who was attacking, wasn't he kind of After another visa appearance this morning, that's sorry. He was on the radio one segment Big Show. Oh wait a second, Oh, I was on the radio. I probably came up with something that Mike can rebrand and steal and put on Follow the Money, like let's let's introduce our our rotating guests. Is kind enough to join us first time ever on

the megapod. He has been kind enough. Aaron and I have done radio segments on Sirius for many years and he's been on the podcast before, but never on the megapod, which is what we do Thursdays, and we've done it for about a decade. It is the founder, the creator of the pioneering pro football analytics site Football Outsiders. It's Aaron Shots. How you doing Aera appreciate it. I'm good. I'm just trying to get used to the rhythms of this. That's right. It does have a certain rhythm, and as

a certain rhythm is the new guy. I'm not quite sure how it goes. Think it's an outstanding opening comment. There is a it's very fun. It's very fun loving, and you know, even though there are a number of people on this podcast that are not really good people, I try to work with them. Okay, that's kind of the rhythm. It's a syncopated beat, is what it is there, and it's not really on on measure. It's not four or four times has its own cadies. It's right the time.

That's the tempo changes all right, So as always the format remains the same on the show. Let us begin though with a a update of Circus Survivor contests. Sir, So, we started with eighty nine entries last week going into that week, and to begin the season, we're at eighty nine. If anyone or persons goes eighteen and oh, because Thanksgiving us its own day, Derrick Stevens adds a million dollar bonus, which looks very likely, um very likely, so that the

total pot would be two point three nine million dollars. Uh. The interesting question last week was that eighty two of the eighty nine survivors had the Seahawks, who were laying close to three touchdowns as it turns out, against the Jets, and we put numbers on how many of the eighty two would take it. I said seventy two. You were right there. Your number was the best of anyone. You know.

It's interesting. Amal Shaw, who plays it very well and better than others, and Lombardi both said the numbers should be eighty two. If the over undershould be eighty one and a half, how can you not use how can you not take Seattle? I'm all said, I'd take it a hundred times out of a hundred, and if they lose to the Jets, I live with it, um, I said. And half ended up being seventies. Seventy six took them.

So in the end, seven entries were eliminated, two nervy souls who lost with the Carolina Panthers against Denver, and then uh and then we had five go down with the Saints at Philadelphia. So we stand with eighty two now and this will kind of be I think it starts to be separation weeks these last three weeks because there's not big chunks of people that have obvious teams available.

So you'll see the picks spread out now. I don't know if we'll see any upsets though, that's the big question, but you're right, they will be spread out from now. And that was the last week where everybody was going to land on one team. You had a guest on today, who's who's handicapping which entries have a chance or our favorite to go eighteen and a right is that correct?

Two he crunched the numbers. Twenty five of the eighty two, by his numbers, have a better than fifty percent chance of going the distance of which I am one, and of which I ranked quite highly. But I wouldn't say that. I know a shem is listening once again for new time listeners as him the Hebrew for the name literally what God, of course is what Todd means by that. And Todd feels like a sham hasn't been dead against him. And the truth is, there really is no childlike God

that people believe in. So I am not of the ilk of the people who believe in the childlike type of God. But anyway, against you, you're gonna lose week sevent right, That's exactly right. That'll be when you lose. And that's the squirrely week, right, no matter no matter how it's planned out. Now it's time for fast money. I think that's what that noise means is it's time for fast money now. I think that, uh, that's the week,

no matter what that spreadsheet says. We're all those of us who you know, have have planned this a mall shop perhaps the greatest planner of them all, those of us who have planned this, there is still you can plan it as well as you can possibly plan it. But when it comes to week seventeen, we still don't know who's going to be motivated and who's not. Because the one thing if it's to make the playoffs, are not to make the ploffs. So one thing to make the number one seed or not only one seed gets

the by this year per conference. But well, teams really care about seeds two through six if they're already in heading into week seventeen. We don't know two thor seven if they're already in. Yeah, I want me to give you the update on how we're doing. Now you've done. Yeah, little update. Bad week for Gil and Mikey, good week for me last week, although I will say this, Gil

and Mikey had Atlanta minus two and a half. I had them a game also minus two and a half, because I thought, well, we're getting to the end of the game, and how can Anthony Lynn mess it up?

And the only thing I forgot was that they were he was playing the Atlanta Falcons, the only team that could theoretically mess it up more than Anthony Lynn, so old Maddie Ice, who I call Matt hot water boiling Ryan through two interceptions in the last two minutes of that game, the Chargers through an interception back to him to try to give him the game back. Finally, of course, the Chargers won, and both Gil and Mikey went down.

So that puts Gil and Mike Gil nineteen and two, Mikey at twenty twenty and two, and I'm at one and one, just barely behind them with a nice two in one week. In the teasers, I him way ahead at ten and four, Mikey at nine and five, and Gil at eight and six, So I'm way ahead in the teasers. Todd, Why did you say Gil and Mikey had a bad week? Didn't I go too and one as well as you? And Gil went one and two? Oh,

I'm sorry, that's right, Mikey didn't go. I bespoke. Mikey did go to and one with the Colt Raiders over which was easy Atlanta, which it was was the Anthony Lynn nonsense, and then the Cleveland Baltimore over, which was about as good and over as they come. Thank you. Court stenographer Todd wish Now, court stenographer of the show. All right, let's beget with the Thursday night game. It

doesn't have to be one of your best bets. If you have anything to say about the Thursday night game, Um, Aaron shots our esteemed guest, any any thoughts on this game from betting perspective? Would you stay away from it? Anything here tonight? With the Charges in the Raiders, Yeah, I mean there's a lot of injuries in this game, so it's sort of like there's a lot of defensive

players out for the Raiders. But then Mike Williams is out and apparently Keenan Allen is her for the Chargers, And um, I think I liked it better when it was Raiders by three than it Raiders by three and a half. I think it's Raiders by three and a half now I kind of like Raiders by three. You do like the Raiders by three. You kind of like it. It's not the best of the week, but I kind of like it. We have Vegas twenty two and we

have the Chargers twenty nine. But basically, the difference between the teams of special teams, I mean special teams is less predictive than offense. But the Charger special teams are so bad that you can kind of count on them doing something bad historically bad by your numbers, correct, Yeah, second worst special teams we've ever measured. Going back to think about that, second worst special teams ever back all the way to and Brother Lynn is a special teams coach.

That's how we got his start in the league. What you call him Brotherly that I we need to talk to you about that. I call him Brother Lynn because one of the No Hyper Bowl segments was Brother Lynn's traveling in Aptitude show. Okay, off the b off the

Beatles to mikey Night. Well if I started ripping you off and then I added onto the the Beatles, the the Chargers that that end of first half sequence uh twenty two seconds left uh last week in the first half, and you're watching this and you're like, is this really happening again? With Anthony Lennon the Chargers against the Falcons, uh twenty two seconds left, clock stop, no time outs, third and one at the Atlanta A down seventeen to ten, the Chargers run. Okay, maybe they run, maybe you can

still spike it after that, but they don't. Um they have the clock keeps taking, they have no time outs with about nine seconds left, they decided to rush the field goal unit on. They rushed the field goal unit out on instead of taking a shot at the end zone, which they had time for. Of course, they don't get off the twenty five yards. So what ends up happening is clock goes to zero, but they have uh, you know, guys on offense lollygagging off the field. Field will unit

going on the field. Even if it goes in in time, it's too many men on the field, it doesn't count. It's amazing. They couldn't bike it because it was third and one, so when they didn't make the first down, they lost that option. That's correct. That is correct. Once again, Anthony Lynn is yelling at his offensive coordinator on the sideline about a run call, the same thing that he says in in Buffalo. It's horrible communication. When they ran the ball after the hail Mary and the live clock.

I mean, no plays go through him. He doesn't have approval on any of the play calling. He doesn't speak to the team before the game. I'm just not sure why the Spano's family is so in love with this guy. I don't know. They may keep him, by the way, Uh I'm with Aaron, no pre flop play on this for me tonight. Brian Bulaga is out. Uh, you have Perryman, Natteralie. But the real thing is on offense. As Aaron indicated, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, all of them questionable.

Did you hear Williams is out out far? Is he? Definitely? What I've seen is that Williams out Wow, and then the Raiders will be missing Jonathan Abram, Damon, Ornette Cleveland, Ferrell, Nicholas Moreau. So you have Nicholas Morrow. So you have this. You don't know who's playing. First of all, if you knew that those Chargers were playing, namely Ekeler and Allen, maybe you pound the Charges without Without that knowledge, this

is a lot. This is an in game bet for me, no pre flop if I don't know who's playing for the Chargers until I know that's anything to add Todd or Mike on that. Nothing on tonight to me, it's just in game. I just want to You know, one thing everyone should know about Raiders game. Is there anyone more in love with the field goal than John Gruden. The guy loves thirteen play drives, thirteen plays, six and a half minute drives that end on a fourth and two at the twenty three and then trots out the

field goal team. I mean, John, why don't you pay attention to people like Aaron Shots, who is obviously, you know, a metrics and analytic guy. One thing I will say about metrics and analytics is they've made it. Everyone realized that you gotta go for it on fourth down, and even on third and nine. Maybe run a play that gets you to fourth and three so that you can

go for it on fourth down. But John Gruden seems in love, absolutely in love with driving at sixty seven yards down the field and then in old football coach parlance, saying, I'm like, well, we've got to get some points out of this drive, you know, you know, with game all they're done here, We've gotta get some point. That to me is just insanity. Even though I like what John grun is doing, I don't understand why it's in so love with he's so much love with the field goal.

I don't know if you guys have noticed this, but I thought you're gonna be different. I thought you're gonna be a different way with that he has. There have been closes games at least one time this year where he decided to kick a really long fifty plus yard or in a in a risk reward situation where if they miss it it costs them the game. But that too, Yeah,

that too, those are the times. Yeah, you guys noticed, Do you guys notice the the incredible amount of long drives that end in a field goal for the Raiders. I don't know if you guys have noticed. There have been a lot of pieces this week, you know, randomly where it's like the Raiders the toughest team to figure out in football, because they they played so well against the Chiefs twice, having beaten them once and flirted with beating him a second time. And then they barely beat

the Jets, and we beat the Jets on a miracle. Aaron, you you do a great job of talking about the teams that are most consistent week to week this year and the teams that are the most volatile. Are the Raiders up there in volatility from week to week performance. Yeah, they're not near the top of the league because they haven't had like the one great or one terrible performance,

but they're they're pretty volatile. Matt Rule from Carolina, by the way, has done a lot of that this year, where he keeps bringing on Joey Slide for these ridiculously log field goals instead of going for it on fourth down. Yeah, the risk reward some coaches don't don't seem to get that, Aaron. Let's start with the best bets. Uh, let's get your first best bet of the week, sir, sure, let's see. My first best bet of the week is the Jacksonville

Jaguars plus thirteen and a half at Baltimore. All right, um, and your thoughts as to why they're well, you know, the Ravens are really good on defense and special teams, but again in the Jaguars are our last place defense right now. But again, like for predicting the future, offense is better than defense. Shoe has been much better than

Glennon or especially Jake Luton for the Jaguars. And so if you look at passing d v o A, which is our our passing metric, you take out the week twelve game where Robert Griffin started for the Ravens, you still you end up with minus six percent for jackson uh, and minus eleven percent from Mishoe. So they're not that far off from each other. Now the defense is obviously that's a big gap. But thirteen and a half is a big line. I mean, I think that's comfortable. How

how's thirteen? I see thirteen CONCESSI you'll still take the thirteen? Yeah, I would still take the thirteen. Okay, Todd, is that what you say? Thirteen concesses? Yeah? I see consensus. Okay, Mikey your first best bet, sir. I did want to mention I do have a play on the Thursday night game, not in this, but I did bet the game over fifty three. You did. I will continue to bet over in these Raiders games. This defense, it's a bottom three defense in the NFL. It's horrific. And Tom, you could

have got fifty two because it's down to fifty two. Yeah, well, it is what it is when I bet it. You know, I'm I'm not predicting. I like that genuineness. You're giving us the genuine stuff. You're not giving us the sugarcoated nonsense where Oh, well, you know I bet at it too because I always get the best number and all that nonsense, so I don't always get never it's a lot of Todd on this show today. Today. It's okay, it's okay, Todd's Todd's good. There's not enough of me.

It's like, there's not enough of me. Then you yell at me for being too quiet, too much, yell at me for being too much. Many people consider Todd Matza ball soup for the soul. So it's okay. My best bet is the Chiefs the laying three points at at New Orleans. I think this awful Philadelphia team really exposed and really exposed the Saints lack of ability to to be dynamic or move the ball. You know, they miss Breeze and they're not going to get him back, maybe

for two more weeks. He did get activated yesterday. Yeah, he will not play, not this week. He will know. Actually, I don't think he got activated. I think what it was was he got designated to return. Okay, thank you for that clarification. Designated practically activated. My producer Jason Connor is back here doing a great job. He said from the beginning he was like eleven ribs and if punctured lung. He said he's never coming back. He still he sticks

by that. Yeah, he's coming back to the playoffs, doesn't think so, Yeah, maybe we'll see. I think that the Chiefs will be very focused this week. They had a really poor performance in Miami. Look, I am definitely have the belief that that if Ryan Fitzpatrick we're playing that game for the Dolphins, they would have beaten the Chiefs. I mean, too is to is really bad. In my opinion, He's a one trick pony. All he can do is throw that slant really bad. That's pretty harsh. I think

he's awful. I think he's I don't think I don't think he's an NFL quarterback. Wow. And maybe it's due to his injury, and but he's very limited. To me, I watched that game. I mean, they had many opportunities. My Homes needs to bounce back after a very subpar game for him turning the ball over. It's a playoff atmosphere. Playing the Saints. This is a prime, you know, a great matchup, and I think the Chiefs and Read are focused.

And I think there if this game was on a you know, a neutral field, they're close to a touchdown favorite. And I think they go into New Orleans and they go wire to wire there. I'm gonna step in line here Todd, because that's my number two bed. I'm on the Kids City Chiefs to giving three here as well as it three consensus tot three. Yes, it's it's not like it's not. It's not juice right to. I mean, it's not a gilly. I'm sorry, did I win that better? Not?

It's gone in that direction. Started out at three and a half. I actually gone in the direction of the Saint. I agree that. In fact, on guessing lines on Monday, a show that I do with Chris Andrews from the South Point, I guessed four and a half and it has gone the other direction, and it just doesn't make any sense to me. Mine is more. I just I'm not a Taysom Hill fan. Uh. Sean Payton clearly is.

I'm sure he's a He's what he's overcome has been amazing, and I'm sure Taysom Hill, given the opportunity to play football more and get more reps, we'll just get better and better as a passer. I don't buy him right now. The thing that I really buy, though, is that I don't think the Kansas City Chiefs. I kind of get the feeling that they've toyed with opponents all year. I think they're better and and and and you think that's

the case or no, I don't know. Listen, the fact is, almost any other team, if they were continuously winning close the way the Chiefs win close week after week, we would be saying, you know, this team is very good, but why don't they have any dominating victories? Like eventually winning close every week is going to come back to bite them. Nobody wants to say that about the Chiefs because we all subjectively believe that they're just toying with

their opponents. But what if they really are not a dominant like not a dominant team, just the best team of this year, but not like a historically dominant team. The way people are talking about them, it's they're in danger of losing sometime. It's fair, it's a fair it's a fair counter you know. I think the difference, and it is subjective right that the difference is they're the super Bowl champions. I think they're better this year. I get the sense that they're better this year than they

were last year. Pittsburgh, who was a team that, uh fit the bill of what we're talking about, a team that won close games, put up a dud against the Cowboys and got by. Uh, put up a dud against pit against Baltimore though, the Robert Griffin game and got by it. Yeah, there's a lot of examples with them. You knew that they were going to lose football games.

I don't get that sense with the Chiefs. I could be very wrong, but I just it's you know, even in the Miami game, they outscored the Dolphins thirty to three in the second and third quarter. I almost feel like they stepped off the gas. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe it's subjective. Were they were toying with Miami that I felt. I'm not saying they do it every game, but in that particular game, the game was over. Aaron is right though, because Aaron comes from a from a from a metric standpoint,

there is subjectivity to that for sure. But it's worth a bet for me this week, I'll take Kansas City BYTUS three. How about Hill when he makes that third down in three catch, all he has to do is go down, the game's over. Instead, they have to fade the whole thing. The on site kick. I mean, everybody knows that people are doing it everywhere, not going and why would he try to score a touchdown on that plane run out of bounds. It's as if they're not

aware of the context of the game. These players time time. That's what I just want to say. I agree with Aaron, though, I think they're so dominant on offense, but at the same time not dominant at all on defense. In fact, I think they might be below average on defense. Well, and that's probably why they give up these backdoor touchdowns all the time. Well, you agree with me that they're below average on defense. Uh, below average in every way

other than the passing game. Their running games below average, their special teams are average, their defenses below average, especially against the run. That passing game is keeping everything winning. Aaron, do you rate their deference for this year better, worse, or the same as their deference from their Super Bowl winning team last year? Oh, I'd have to go look to see where we had the numbers. I think it's

pretty similar. Here's the real questionnaire in closing it out with the Chiefs here, who is the team in the a f C that if you gave the Chiefs truth serum, who's the team they'd least like to see in the a f C playoffs? In a Championship game Tennessee Tennessee. I love Derrick Henry so even more so than Baltimore the way they're constructed or Buffalo. Yeah, because with Baltimore you feel like they can't really pass on you that well, like with Tennessee. You know they can pass on you

and they can run out. Yes, their defense is garbage, So you're going to score against them all the time. But you'r Kansas City, You're going to score against everybody all the time. The idea is, I think the thing they least want to face is Derrick Henry, even though Kansas City matches up very well with the Tennessee defense. Yes, Tennessee beat them a couple of years ago in the playoffs. I think. No, there was that game regular season Tennessee

beat him with the backup quarterback. Remember that backup quarterback game? You know game Errands referring to was our buddy ees worst gambling loss ever was the Mariota Andy Reid game. If I'm not mistaken, eighteen to seventeen? Was that that game? Maybe maybe I thought it was. I thought it was Hillary Clinton. It's a different conversation. I thought that was the worst loss there was. Again, I might be complaying a couple of games. Todd, what was your first best bet? Todd?

By the way, I just want to say I was good. I was gonna use case as one of my three picks, but don't do it to us. Don't do it. Yeah, right now, I'm not doing it because I know as soon as I do it, that's an automatic. Oh and one for everyone as free as a jinx. Yeah, I'm not going to take Kansas City minus three. I'm gonna take as my best bet the under in the Philadelphia Eagles Arizona Cardinals game. And the reason is, and I have gil what do you have? As I have numbers

like forty nine and a half mostly so would you have? Uh? I'm efforting that right now. Hold on WiFi is a Jakie? Well you effort. I'll give a little update. Burnley almost score it on ahead of and that would have been very, very not good for both me and Mikey. H'm talking about football. What that's not football, that's soccer and Ayen's are crazy forty nine and a half Tome. No, wait,

what game are we talking about again? Arizona Philadelphia? I'm sorry I was giving you my England and my Pittsburgh. He's impressions two different guys watching US soccer here. Anyways, I'll take Philadelphia Arizona under forty nine and a half. And the reason I'll take it under forty nine and a half is I have to think that Doug is gonna say, how can we win this game? Conservative, Let's protect Jalen Hurts similar to what he did against the Saints.

Let's not make him do anything. Let's run the ball a ton run run, run, run, run, run run the football, let that clock go and uh. On the other side, Arizona is not really a big over team. I know they have Cliff Kingsbury's a coach, but they're not if you look at their games, they're not really an over team at all. And I think the fact that Doug is probably gonna do the same thing. Put Jalen Hurts in the in the in the you know, the styrofoam padding or whatever, and not allow him to lose the

game for them really game manage it. It's gotta make forty nine and a half to me a little bit too high. So I'm gonna go Philadelphia Arizona under forty nine and a half. All right, I just want to point out two things. One that's just in from my d C peeps or texting me. Dwayne Haskins taking first team reps with Washington this morning. Oh, I was gonna use I was going to use them, and then when

I saw Clem Haskins, it might be the starter. I Cleon Haskins forward Washington bullet I believe back in the day, not Washington redskin. I got this d M. This is a this DM and Todd is Todd appreciate this? I wrote I read this earlier on a Numbers game. Hey, Gil, I've talked to you on a all for years, ever since the betting Dork days, and I've always been a big fan of how you break down an analyze matchups

and value. I've been recovering from an accident a month ago where I suffered a concussion and have been having to stay in a dark room to lights which trigger migrains. I'm at the end of my recovery starting to feel like myself. But over these past four weeks, I've listened to all of your podcasts and replays of a Numbers game and it's been a major part of my recovery. I haven't been able to do anything besides listen to podcasts,

and it's helped me get through each day. With that said, please don't allow Todd to funk up the megapod today. My health depends on it. Sorry, I just wanted to say thank you. While you've been doing your job, you don't know how much you've really helped me rest and recovery from my injury. That's dubbin timp. That's that's this right here, so he said, Dodd, listen, I can boycott this megapod and take it right down the tubes at any moment to come in and be the guest on

this podcast, which clearly has a lot of history. I'm sorry, it's a roadstate. Feel a little bit like Kendall hit Like what am I doing here? Oh? I'm sorry. I hope you don't feel that way. It makes me breaks my heart. Aaron, you're doing much better than Kendall hint, and I've already seen you complete a couple of passes. Alright, Aaron,

pick number two from you, sir. Let's see here my number two pick U bills minus six and a half against Denver Saturday, NFL Action Alight Saturday NFL Action have. Actually I have mostly six we even better, even better minus it on. Clearly the lines that I have are little dated. Um, Denver is the number thirty one passing game in our numbers, and if you take out the Kendall hitting game, they're still the number thirty one passing game.

Kendall is what you're saying is Kendall Hill. Kendall hitting doesn't really affect their ranking that much at all. I mean the number one offense. Sorry that the number twenty nine passing game. Yeah, they're They're running game has been terrible. Lindsay and Gordon are both questionable. Lock was good last week, but for most of the season Lock has not been that good. Um, their offense is just not working, and Buffalo is Their defense has improved over the last few weeks.

Their offense is good. I really like Buffalo in that game. All right, that's the first of the two Saturday games. I'm so glad we have Saturday NFL Championship. It's conflicting for the active content, Yes, active content. I said in the sports book, you can play the audio in the NFL games with at the pool we've marketed Championship Saturday. You've got to you've gotta stick with the major college championship games. So alright, your number two picks, sir, I'm

gonna give him. No, No, we had no idea. You were trying to interrupt Todd. How about for the guy healing? Just please be quiet for the guy that's healing. Aaron already feels like he was regretting being here, So can you take I was trying to bring him in. I was trying to bring him into to to a conversation about his pick. But if you guys just want to ramrod right over him, that's fine, no problem. Ask him please. Okay, here was my and it has to do with his

metric based um scenarios. So here's my question. Hearen Bills. I like the Bills too, but I'm a little worried that they had this huge win last week. Do you take into account like that kind of psychological effect or you just go straight by the numbers, because because I've looked to try to I've looked to to try to account for that. Like you know, if such a psychological effect exists, you should be able to identify it beforehand say oh, this is a game that's got one of

those effects. And then this is the result, and I've never been able to identify it. So basically, you're saying it doesn't really exist. By the way, I'm open to that answer, but you're still you Basically, I think it's I think it's so unpredictable that you can't use it in a prediction. It can't be quantified. It can't be quantified as what you're saying, because how in the world are you going to say whether this team came off

a psychologically amazing win versus another team. So basically you're saying it may exist, but there's no way to quantify it. Yeah, basically, it's like your thoughts on God. Now we can go one second. Why don't we go back to the Simpleton part of the program, go on to That was an excellent question. Every once in a while you run into one, nicely done. That was an excellent question. And both games are both teams are coming off big wins, aren't they.

I mean, Denver beat Carolina nicely, right, But I would I would I would phrase the Bills win over the Steelers in what was Yeah, to me, that was like a monster, that was like a Bill's signature win for this season. Like Okay, now we've taken on the eleven and one Steelers, We've proven we can play with the top teams. Josh Allen coming into his own to me, that's like a real signature win. Yeah, I agree with you.

I I just yeah, I've never been able to quantify any kind of emotional effect from coming off a big win like that number two in a season where I've adapted to taking overs in in pro football. I'm gonna give it rare under uh and I'm gonna give the Dolphins and Patriots game under Todd is it is it forty one and a half. You see when we have two quarterbacks and Aaron can attest to this, they're passing offense is just not good between between Newton and tua Uh.

I don't think they're dynamic at all. I think the defense is the stronger side of the ball on both of these teams. Um, I make this number myself thirty eight and a half because of the ineptitude of of Tuah. I mean, I'm really down on this guy. I really are. I'm actually not going to test to that our numbers like too of this year. And I'm surprised because I thought he's gonna struggle, but Miami is something like tent in passing and that has continued. It's basically been the

same with two that it was with Fitzpatrick. That'll get your to eight. I just watched watching him play. He has one play. All he can do is is fake to run and throw the end slant. That's all they could do against Kansas City, and then Kansas City got into this kind of prevent defense a little bit there in the fourth quarter where they were just trying to two o'clock and let him have some easy throws. I think Belichick will take away what he can do. I

also think you saw Cam Newton obviously struggles. He's still he still doesn't have the form he had three years ago. And I just think this is a dead under game in the humidity in December in Miami. I look for this game. I'm not sure who wins it actually, but I'm thinking this is more of a seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen type of affair. I wonder I will say this, Brian Flores, who has been by any measure, has done a spectacular job. Team that flirted, may not get there,

but flirted with a division championship this year. If the Bills weren't so great. Uh, he does. There is a bit of painting into the painting himself into the corner with two, right, because if you believe and maybe Flora's doesn't believe this, but if you believe that, um, if she'd like you to watch her bag, I'm like, she'd like you to watch your bag if you believe. So what happens when you do a live podcast? Make sure that's okay? Then big um Uh. If I'm the one,

I'm the one who ruins the podcast. Here are absolutely I'm just to make sure nobody's walking behind me. I

I sent my girlfriend upstairs. I don't know if the Dolphins have a game to get into the postseason, let's say in week seventeen, just to a really give you the worst, just to a really give you, uh the best shot of winning that do or die game over Ryan Fitzpatrick and I guess what Brian Flores has already decided is it's too as long as two is healthy and so that that is the one little thing that

will be interesting to watch. I think that they they they put themselves in that position though when they went to two earlier in the season. Yes, like the minute that he went to to Ah, it was, Okay, this is the quarterback for the rest of the year, even if we're in playoff contention, this is the quarterback. We're sticking with it. Yeah, that's what I mean by sort of painting. Maybe, I mean it's my phrase to say painted into the corn, painted itself into the corner up.

But I mean, I think it's not even in the last week or two that he's been painted into corner. I think from the moment that they switched quarterback. But that was Yeah, you're you're right, because I've I've actually said it a couple of times a year. I said it initially with if they want to get to the division Crown. I said it initially. Now it's to get to the playoffs. So you're right, it's been a while. By the way, she smelled wonderful, didn't she. I only

smelled the cigarette's That's what I mean. It's it's a it's a it's a combination of Marlboro and Virginia Slims Special Las Vegas. Yeah, Todd, you're number two. Okay, So wow, this week is just so I don't know if you guys feel that this week is incredibly hard. But I just feel this week is just incredibly and difficult week to come up with picks. But um, I'm gonna go with another under again. You know, um the Niners game last week, I had the under with Washington. Um, Nick

Mollins to me is not in NFL starting quarterback. I'm gonna go under forty five in the Dallas San Francisco game. I think they have to protect Nick Mollins. They've got to run the football, and I like San Francisco defensively. I think San Francisco, even though they've had all the injuries and everything, I still think they're a good defensive team. Um. I think they can hold the Cowboys down with the

red rifle. The beige rifle is Mike calls them. To see how how I give big Water right if I give credit when Mikey comes up with something, you know, really good beige water pistol. I don't think the beige water pistol is gonna be able to do much against San Francisco's defense. And I really don't think Nick Mollins is an NFL quarterback. So I'm gonna go under forty five in the Dallas San Francisco game to replace my Kansas City pick, which would have led to all of

us going on and one. How about San Francisco Dallas getting flexed out and the Giants and the Browns getting flexed in. That's what it is if Kansas City and New Orleans didn't exist this week. This is the worst set of matchups in any week ever in history. It's so bad by the fact that there are teams with losing records that are in the playoff race. Yes, correct, Washington, Seattle saves it break, that's right, Miami, New England kind of uh my number in Minnesota, right, that's right. That

game a de facto elimination game. My second pick is the Miami Dolphins. That's another one that the line went against me. But is this your first pick? Well, I I Kansas City. I went in it was number two. Just because you mentioned this is number one, number one, number one. I don't know what do you have? I have minus one one and a half somewhere in then minus Yeah, it's a minus one. I think Miami. It's kind of teetering between minus one minus one and then

we'll give you We'll give you the minus one. Hey, thanks to what are you watching? Over there on though he's watching Burnley and aston Villa against aston Villa, it's a tremendous game with a spot of so I don't have to I don't have to add much to this other than I like Aaron really do kind of like to a hear. I'm not that uh bearish on him, and I just think, you know, at some point you can't usually defensive, the propensity to get turnovers on defense

is not a predictive thing. But the Dolphins have done this enough where to me it's like, no, this team, this team absolutely has a knack for this. And against the guy like Cam Newton, who has just been awful, someone I don't know. I wish I could remember who wrote this. This morning, somebody wrote he's essentially an old tailback playing quarterback now in the NFL. There's an interesting line. I don't have any confidence in the pages that Patriots.

It's not even I mean Belichick took for them to be six and seven is remarkable, I believe, because they just don't have the bodies. They just don't have a talent. I mean last week against the Rams. That's why I loved that Thursday night games so much. The fact that Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams, Jacoby Myers. Who was the guy? Jaleiams? You know, I'm sorry, Ahead. I think Cam has been better than you're giving him credit for. I think the

problem is that his receivers are terrible. Yeah, this is just a question of bodies. At some point, you don't have any players that are NFL restaurant quality. So I'm taking the Dolphins. I'm laying the one. I'd like to pose a question to Aaron and then Gil you could comment on it. Todd, I don't really think you're qualified to. I'm gonna give you five quarterbacks if you were the GM of an NFL team, which is can I just

say one word? Wow? If you were the GM of an NFL team, who would you like to have out of these five? And in order? Okay to uh, Justin Herbert, mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell. I don't know enough about college quarterbacks to be able to tell you how I feel about Mac Jones or Sam Howell. To be honest, I don't really pay much attention to them until the NFL season is over, and then I look start king into the draft. Justin Herbert is clearly number one based

on what we've seen. Uh And I I am not convinced about Trevor Lawrence like others are. And that is all about the one championship game last year against LSU, Like here was the here we was facing pro players. Didn't go that well. So I think he has a lot to prove down the stretch of this college football season. Everyone's like, oh, the Jets are gonna get Trevor Lombardi. Michael Lombardi says, oh, he's leaps and bounds the best

prospect out there. I'm all disagrees with that, how like how he doesn't think how it's get by the way, obviously you have to take Herbert because he's a proven commodity. You never know about any college athlete before he comes in because it's not the same thing. So obviously make Herbert number one. But out of all those other guys, I like, how to um tell them all that I'm with him on that that guy is damn good too? Is my number two too? Is my number two on

that list? That it is such an in a zact science projecting quarterbacks from college to pro and usually the only ones that Dr Bob would say the only stat that really matters his accuracy. But even that, take a guy like Josh Allen. He was horrible. He was horrific the first two years, and now he's one top five, and his accuracy at Wyoming was not good, right, So that's why it was like he was predicted the first two years, but then he you know, he did this

camp hold on top May just finished the sentence. He the first two years he was awful. He did this camp with Jordan Palmer, Carson Palmer's brother, and magically, I don't know if that helped him, but one of the top five. We've never seen anything like it. Oh, it is. It's historically amazing. I mean I don't remember seeing anything like it. And if you go back, you have to go back into like the seventies, find guys whose completion

rates increased like that after two bad years. And if the thing is if they can do the kind of you know, they like filmed his uh, they filmed his release, and then they looked at where his feet were, and they looked at where his arm were, and they used all this technology the way they do with baseball heater. If they can do that to improve guy's accuracy, that actually opens up to draft a lot more quarterbacks who

become more draft able than they were before. If you can actually fix the guy's accuracy now with that kind of computer help, that absolutely would be fascinating. If if that's a thing now, Um, I honestly take the gamble, I would bet that that Allen is just a massive outfire. I think you're probably right, um. But also, so much of NFL QB is in the head, So much is between the ears, and that's to make the decision fast

to the right guy. So it's not always Maybe Josh Allen was the kind of guy he just needed his mechanics fixed and he had the head for it the whole time. But there are guys that come in and have great like Drew lock is never going to be a star in my opinion, because he just doesn't have it between the years. And it's hard to tell because in college those guys had all their reads to find for Yeah, Aaron, you're a third and final Pixer. My third pick of the week is the Pittsburgh Steelers minus

twelve and a half against Cincinnati. I think at this point the Steelers have become so overrated. They're underrated and I think that the Cincinnati offense is horrific, horrific without Joe Burrow, just awful. By the last three games. Their rating in my numbers over a full season would make them the worst offense ever measured ever. If it was on on pace, it would be to be the worst. What they've done since Burrow went out would be on pace to be the worst offense everbotion, How are they

going for points against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Yeah, jeez, That's why I said about the Jets against the Rams this week too. How the Jets going to score against that defense? I've been betting. I've been betting the team totals under on Cincinnati every week and winning pretty easily. But I will say this in my Pittsburgh's voice, Mark Malone and the Pittsburgh Stillers of the early eighties would have something to say about being the worst offense of all time.

That team went about four teen games in a row with no touchdowns. Aaron's gott are. The worst offense that we've ever measured is the two thousand two Texans, and the worst passing game is the Seahawks. Now, what the Bengals have done Burrow went out is worse than both

of those. Wow, Now, Aaron, just for giggles, tell everybody what the finest team is in all your metrics going back to please not not Washington and Rippon, Please please not Washington, don't want it is in fact the one Washington Redskins and Mark Rippon is the best team in

our metris. Yes, going back now four Now we know idea like Aaron shot now because Ariel he liked before that, he liked me before we got back to That's right, That's exactly right Aaron and I. I was in love with Aaron in ninety four, ninety three, and then when I got to ninety one, it was just the romance, all right. Do you have like in between seasons though, because there are swaths of seasons where teams have like

their third string quarterback playing and they're even worse. And maybe you know what I mean, like you're taking all the whole season as all is just measuring the whole season, not like obviously there have been offenses that are worse than this year's Bengals without Burrow, with other backup quarterbacks, I mean, with Kendall Hinton, like that may have been the worst offense in NFL history, right, but um, but just I'm saying, if if if what they've done since

Burrow went out was what they were doing for the entire year, it would measure is the worst full year of offense that we've ever measured. Like the Seahawks in ninety two tried three different quarterbacks and they all sucked. It's stofer in McGuire and um, I can't remember who the third guy was. At least they were all Kelly Sfer and Dan McGuire, Mark's brother. By the way, they

like the Ken. The Kendall h Hinting thing is clearly the worst ever because the one pass he completed, he looked to the sidelines and let a big smile, just knowing what an accomplishment that was. That the guy they told him the night before, congratulations, you're now our starting quarterbacks. Like I mean, it's not his not at all, not at all. Who knows what Kendall Hayton could do as an NFL quarterback if you gave him like an entire training camp. But that's not what he has if you

get it, if you gave him a day. I remember when the Bear ran Walter Payton at quarterback for a little while because they had like a horrendousness at quarterback. Four they tried him at quarterback for a little bit. Yep, I don't remember that at all. Four. Yep, eighty four was the Steve Fuller year, right, Yep. They went into There's something, man. I think there too. There was what that Vince Evans. I think there's something, man. No, Vince

Evans is earlier than that. Vin sevens is like they were bad at with Vince s evens eighty four Steve Fuller. The only game the Washington Redskins of your that the Washington football team ever lost in the playoffs at RFK Stadium was the eighty four Bears with Steve Fuller. Uh, the only time they ever lost the playoff game at rf And then they went and lost the NFC Championship

game to the forty Niners. The Bears in four, that's correct, when they ran Guy MC and tied to show it, but that was the precursor of the grade eighty five season. You're number three, Aaron, How far? How far back are you going on these? Are you going all the way back to my super stellars? Because in nineteen seventy seven people say we didn't win the Super Bowl, but they say we were the best stiller team of all time.

I think it's seventy six that's supposed to be the best sealer team of all time, even though that's the one that lost to the Raiders. Right now we have back to eighty five. It was possible. I'm finishing eighty four and eighty three now and then it's gonna get hard. It's possible. Here's what I'm saying. It's possible that the Mark Ripping lead Washington Redskins are not in fact, I say, are not better than the Pittsburgh Stillars, and I date seventy six giving them on a friend. No, hair's a

rocky part. Throw it at the Lynn Swanna, John Stoworth with Jack Lambert, Jack hamp Oh, Yeah, it's go start. We are going to have to find a lot of VHS tapes. Yeah, back to the seventies. I have a feeling maybe it Blot that is really your four, that

is your fork in the road. You just can't find the plays, right, you just can't find at a certain point, they're just the game books don't exist, and we have to find old VHS tapes like we wouldn't have been able to do eighty five through eighty nine if we didn't have certain games on vhs tap wow, because d v O A is is granular. It's every single play, Todd. That's so hard to have. Fine, like we already have where we're missing one or two plays here or there

that are missing from game books or whatever. And we had to kind of guess by the way, Todd, Mark Rippin was sacked seven times all year. Stop it already they were. They were seventeen and two in one game. They didn't care what the Pittsburgh Spiller defense gave up, like one point five points per game. They were incredible, incredible mel Blunt. Have you ever heard of that guy? They didn't have to play the Buffalo Bills or the

Philadelphia Eagles. With their Philadelphia Eagles had one of your greatest rated defenses that year, to the greatest rated defense by far. People like John Madden Gibbs overcame that. Please, all right, your number three picks? Where how did the Eagles could score a point? Yes, that's where that's true. I left that part out. Aaron, Aaron, Where did the Cowboys teams in the early nineties rank in that? And you're oh, very well. But what's interesting is the forty

Niners teams. It's almost like I have the wrong team number one in most of those years, Like I think that the forty Niners are higher than the Cowboys in this is for the regular season, and the Cowboys are higher than the forty. Interesting because of that that one time VENs hold on, Todd, hold on, hold on, Let

please let the guest finishes coming. That game that you're referring to, Aaron, Uh, that San Francisco lost to the Eagles, it was like forty one to eight or something like that is still to me after all these years, the single most perplexing outcome of any regular season game ever makes no sense. How did that happen? Yeah? Bizarre? They lost to an Eagles team at home? That the Niners. Ridiculous. Anyway, you're number three. Sorry, maybe I missed it. What was

todd second pick? I only have. I only wrote down one pick for you, Todd under forty in Dallas against I missed it. I do remember part of that. Okay. My third pick is the Colts Texans over what's your number one? I'm going back to it, Todd. I'm going back there at forty four points in the first half and two in the second half that they the first half is much more predictive of these two teams, and

how bad the Texans defense has been. The Colts are going to go up and down the field like they did here at Allegiance Stadium, and you're still not gonna hold the Shawn Watson under seventeen. I just I like these overs. They're not even really sweats these teams. They never forced any punts. The only thing that kills these overs is if, like Todd says, you have in the nine minute drive with the field goal. Those are the only things is when they don't convert in the red zone.

But they move up and down the field with little resistance. They rarely faced third downs these teams do they create third downs soft one Todd is at it. Thanks Todd, You're third and final. Yeah, and Aaron, before we got sidetracked on all the Niner talk and the Redskins is the greatest. I just wanted to ask you, do you have the Ravens defense in the year two thousand as

the greatest defensive ever? Because I would contend that if you win the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer, no where do you have him ring, Well, if it's regular season only, they're better if you include the playoffs because they were so good in the playoffs. We don't even have them in the regular season as the best defense of that year. Wow, who was tennis was the best defense of that year? What battles those were in the playoffs. It's pretty miracle team.

That was a music City miracle team, right. Uh. That was a year after the Music City's January two thousand was the Music City there. But the Ravens the best run defense of all time. But against the past, they were something like fifth or sixth that year in the regular season. Again, they turned it on in the playoffs. That's super Bowl against the Giants at that time in my life was my biggest bet ever. You had what the Giants punt seventeen times or something that they just

kept pun punt, punt punt. I was like, this team is so much better than the Giants to those battles, and they would play Tennessee in those playoffs in the divisional rounds. They were unbelievable, how but badly they beat up McNair and he kept coming. They were always like sixteen thirteen games a lot of the Tennessee in Baltimore. Heavily adjusted in my numbers for schedule because like Cleveland and Cincinnati were terrible offensive, That's right, they were bad.

Where do you rank the eighty five Bears in terms of overall defense? The defense we've ever measured? Number three, Yes, eight six Bears or two eighty five Bears gave up thirty to Tampa Bay twice. And you know, people think about at the end they were shutting everybody out when it got cold, but earlier in the year people put up yards and points against him. But okay, so so number one was the nine Eagles. Number two was the eighty six Bears defense. Number three was the eighty five

Bears defense. That's an interesting point because the eighties six Bears defense. People forget after the Super Bowl Shuffle winning Super Bowl team. I'm going to security that Bears. That Bears team one games like by a field goal thirteen to ten every week. They were really bad offensively. And I remember when they played the Skins in the playoffs, you kind of knew, you were, like, this is an accident waiting to happen, but at one point didn't happen.

That year, it happened to strike season the next year against the Skins. Um. Yeah, it's becoming to medicine over here. Sorry about that, Um, But that's interesting. So eighty five just below the eighties six version of the Bears. Um. Okay, Todd, what was your third final? By the way, I could talk to Aaron about his rankings of best defense and best offense for like a hundred years. What about this team? What about that team? What I love doing? I'm so

looking forward to finishing eight three. And you know what, I'd like to talk to a guy like Aaron Shots more than maybe say like a general manager who's on the radio. I think you'd be much better. Well, you know, you know what I want to find out about eighty three. Was the Washington offense on in eight three one of the greatest of all time? That that's gonna be a

good question. Yeah, because it wasn't until the ninety nine or the ninety eight Vikings, I can't remember what year it was where they were they finally clips the number of talking about Randy could Pepper to Randy Moss and then Gary Anderson. This is the first field goal in the history of field goals in the playoffs and they lose to the dirty Birds. I believe that was dirty, but it was fifteen years before the eight three Redskins had that beaten that that mark. That was an unbelievable

Skins offense. But defense was the Pearl Harbor Crew as they called themselves. They were awful. Lost like fifty I'll lost forty seven on Monday Night football to the Packers. Just amazing. Anyway, Yeah, we can talk historical stuff, but it will be here all day. So we can't keep uh number three times? That would be great. That's just a lot of fun to go through like that. You know, this team is number six, this team is number now. That's bullshit, you know. Yeah, Okay, anyways, my number three

I was gonna go with the Kansas City team. I already discussed why I can't do that. So I'm gonna just close my eyes do something scary. I'm gonna close my eyes and I'm gonna go with the New York Football Giants. Give me the five, gil, is that what you have? The five? Four and a half is? Okay? Well what you giving me four and a half and half? I see a lot of fives, but okay, I see what was happening here. Okay, anyways, I'll take the New

York Football John Alliance. I like this team's defensive football. Now, granted, you know there's issues on offense. We all know them, we all love them. But you know, Joe Judge, to me as a guy, he's tightening, battening down the hatches and trying to just will his team to w's. I like what they do defensively. Last week was not a great week, but it really wasn't because the defense was bad. It was mostly because the offense couldn't do anything. And Cleveland,

you know, it was a great game Monday night. We all saw the craziness at the end. By the way, I love how they say the pitch back safety thing is like, oh, it's the craziest loss of all time. It's not the craziest loss of all time. It happens all of the time. How many times I personally have lost because of pitch backs at the on the last

it doesn't happen. It doesn't happen in the NFL on a Monday night game, or the line is three all the time in a game that was forty five to forty two, and you know, yeah, no, no, no, I agree that was crazy, but I'm saying I can remember tons of pitch back craziness on the last play the game, in the end of In fact, whenever I have a line and I know the other team has like one last play, I'm always sitting on the edge of my feet seat going, please not with the pitch backs. Please

no pitch back. And so it does happen. The word happens anyway. The fact that the Giants, the fact that he spiked it with and their left two seconds, the fact that they did the touchback, it's all these things. No, no, it was crazy, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying it wasn't like we've never seen this before. We've seen if you want to see something you've never seen before.

The ball state game on Saturday with Western Michigan and they they were laddering the ball back and forth, and then they thought that that their team had fallen on the ball. So the entire team ran on the field and they kept the play going because he didn't really recover the ball, and they ran it all the way

back for a touchdown. It would have been a win, but for there was another penalty that was the craziest except except for the fact of the handle of that is a fraction of the Monday night football game right, Well, of course, of course. But I mean to me, Western Michigan against ball Stage is just as good as you know, Browns against Kansas City. I'm not one of these guys who has like this. You know, if you bet on

both cities, you've got a problem both state. What my third pick is the New York Footings plus four and a half. The New York Football Giants football team is a fantastic defensive team. Well, maybe that's too far. I like their defense. I think they can hang in the game at home against the Browns. The Browns had this incredible emotional situation and now they've got to go on the road and beat the Giants. I could so easily

see this coming down to the end. Or even if the Browns are up late by eleven they give up the back door touchdown. Give me the Giants plus the four and a half, and I'm not gonna go with Kansas City, even though I wanted, what's the what's the Minnesota Chicago line that you have? I have Minnesota Chicago at the Minnesota Vikings either three minus one or three and a half. Right, Well, what's the ruling then if you're gonna try to take the Minnesota, you can't take

Minnesota minus one. So Minnesota minus three and a half is my number three pick. I am going to assume, and we know what we say about assuming. So I am making a leap here that Mike Zimmer and company know how to to call plays, not that Zimmer is the guy doing it, but that they know how to work around the Dan Bailey problem. And so they are going to game scripted in game when they're matriculating the ball down the field, They're going to keep that in mind at all times. And they got to get this

ball close before attempting field goals. I'm gonna assume that they're aware of this. Uh. I just think in the end, as great as Chicago's defense has been and showed itself last week for instance, I'm I think Minnesota Vikings offense to me is far more trustworthy than that of the Bears. And so I am going to lay the three and a half here and hope that the Vikings play this smart and keep themselves in playoff contention. So do this week? Did they bring any other kickers in? I didn't follow it.

I don't think he missed the extra point by twenty three yards to the left. Did you see how far you point? Aaron? You didn't. He didn't hear that they brought in anybody, did they? I haven't seen any news of them bringing another kicker. Wow. Yeah, the old vote of confidence for Dan Billy Dan Bailey, who when he one time he could put the ball like this right wherever you wanted it when he was with the Cowboys.

I have a Dan Bailey jersey. When the Cowboys allowed Dan Bailey to go away, I was like, I can't believe they did that. He's so great. It was really good. And now look, the best, the inconsistent unless their named Justin Tucker. That's right, unless the name is Justin Tucker, who, by the way, missed the Fieldville two weeks ago, got one block. Swimmy kicker is very good, too good, very good, Justin Tucker light Sanders. Yeah. And then the other one

is the Chiefs have a good kick. But that's about it. Those are probably the three best and three most trustworthy kickers in the NFL. I like Raphael s at the end. That was good. I like that you heard it Todd. You know what kicker you could us the Skins, Chip low Miller. That's who you could trust. Now that guy, well,

they probably didn't have Bring up award. What do you say, uh, Aaron, Mark Moseley at his MVP award, Mark Moseley nine and eighty two strikes shortened season National Football League m v P. What was more impressive for a kicker? Mark Moseley's m v P or Sarah Fuller's SEC Player of the Week. Why wasn't she kicking off the past week if she perfectly executed that squipt kick. I didn't get it, Mark Moseley.

Memories of my father hugging me at RFK as that ball went through the snow to clinch a playoff birth against the Giants fifteen to fourteen, looking up boys and girls. And he was one of those straight on kickers like Dan Cockroft or Don Cockroft. One bar, one bar, helmet, straight on, all right, uh. Teaser of the week Aaron two team six point Teaser of the week, Sir, I like Pittsburgh minus six and a half twined, we've Carolina plus fourteen and a half against the Packers. Interesting again

based on the fact of Cincinnati can't score any points. Second, Todd, you have to Todd. Let him Todd, let him explain. Please, Oh, it's thirteen, so it would be uh plus, it's gonna be Pittsburgh minded seven then right, and Carolina plus fourteen and a half. The Packers defense has had a tendency to give up points with Leeds latent games to let

teams come back and make it close. So Pittsburgh and Carolina for Aaron, Mike, I was just trying to help him with the line, Gil because the line was not Please let the guest finish his thoughts and then, all right, Aaron, I apologize. I was just trying to help you with the line. That's all. Sorry. Just say I'm gonna take the Bills down to a pick yes against the Broncos, and then I'm going to take the Cowboys up to nine wow against the against What up with that? They

don't have a quarterback? San Francisco doesn't have a quarterback. Well they do, but he's not very good. He'll probably be right. I'm just I don't know, Todd. I'm gonna go with Arizona Cardinals. Pick Arizona just to win the game. I think this Philadelphia Eagles is full god nonsense. I'm not a believer, and uh I would like to. I'm just having a hard time with the other pick. You know what, I'm just gonna go back to the tried and shrewd thing that always works green Bay minus two

and a half. So for me, there are three teaser legs that I love, two of the Saturday ones, Buffalo and green Bay, and then I like Indianapolis on Sunday hosting the Texans. Essentially, Buffalo would be to tease down to win against ever green Bay would get it through the seven and three against Carolina, and Indianapolis would I like that? Yeah, basically to one and a half to be Houston. So in the end, you know what, let's make it a special Saturday teaser event. Let's just go

Buffalo in green Bay. Okay, so you're going buffs to pick them and green Bay down to two and a half. Correct, But I do like your call. I don't say the Cults are in a different class of football team in the Texans. The Texans are not. Come on, the Texans are bad. They're just bad. Every time. You're just like, what's DeShawn Watson? Come on, It's DeShawn Watson know they stick, but it's like it's like I was saying about the Patriots earlier, like the Texans. He doesn't have anybody throw

to anymore, like he's running out of people. Coute is like his leading. You know, but you don't even know some of these receivers names in where Chad Hanson is like their number two wide out now you know, like I don't. What is Chad Hanson ranked in the history of anteon receivers? What ranking is Chad Hanson one thousand seven? Aaron no ranking? Aaron is not answering the question. He refuses to answer. What's the question? Question? I was joking around.

I said, in the pantheon of wide receivers, what ranking was Chad Hansen? The number very low, very low. I believe he heard the question. He was acting like you did here. Final two. Final two questions, gentlemen, Uh, if we had to pick one of the big favorites that you felt is the most likely to lose outright, which favorite would that be? Will define them as? Should we

go with six? Let's go with six? This is interesting This week six point favorites are Greater Buffalo at Denver six point favorites Green Bay eight and a half point favorites hosting Carolina. Those are the Saturday games. The other candidates Tennessee eleven point favorites hosting We don't know yet if it's a Matt Stafford or non Matt Stafford Detroit Lions team uh, Tampa Bay six point favorites on the

road against Atlanta. God, there's tons of these. Indianapolis seven and a half point favorites at home against Houston, Baltimore thirteen, twelve and a half point favorites hosting Jacksonville, Ram seventeen and a half, now hosting the Jets, wile it's already seventeen and a half, Arizona six and a half over Philadelphia, and of course Pittsburgh Monday night thirteen points. My goodness,

what a week. Thirteen point favorite The chasm between the halves and the half nots okay, Todd, you can do yours first, you can step ahead of again, and I have a lot of I have. Uh. I think the Atlanta Falcons could upset that the Tom Brady's I really do the Atlanta Falcons defense, and maybe Aaron can tell us about this. I think Atlanta has improved very very very much on defense in the last say, eight weeks of this season, and I think their defense might even

be above average. Now I don't know if that's true by the stats are ratings since Rockey Morris took over. Wow, look at that, see Mikey and I was saying, how many weeks? Was I saying Atlanta is getting better on defense? I kept pounding you with that. Anyways, I think the Atlanta Falcons defense. Did you say I said you like

you specifically? It's like I'm the one my Auntireeheyte Morris, It's right, No, Atlanta, And I'm just saying, we're just saying I kept saying Atlanta keeps getting better and better on defense. I really think they're not bad. They're they're pretty good deed on defense. Now you have to you have to deal with Matt boiling hot water. But you know, other than that, maybe they can win the game. I

I'll take I think Atlanta. I do think there's some wisdom there that we we tend to think of Atlanta as an offensive team and as a poor defensive team. That's not the case. The other one, Aaron is Seattle. Hasn't their defense improved as this season has gone on. Yeah, I have to run numbers. I happen to have run Atlanta for somebody, so it's I've got it on the tip of my brain. But Seattle is absolutely improved on defense. Alright, Aaron, of the big favorites, who's the most likely to lose

out right? In your opinion? Todd says it's the Tampa Bay Bucks. I think I'm gonna go. I think I'm also going to say the Tampa Bay Bus. Yeah, because Atlanta, because the Atlanta offense could get really powerful and their defense has improved. But I mean, our numbers really like Tampa Bay. But I think of these teams in Atlanta as the team most likely to pull it upset Shaws. They were not They were not an option. I thought there were six point favorite. No, they're five and a half.

They were not listed. Let you know what, it's a team. It's very like I think we should let Mike get away with that girl because it is kind of close, all right, But you guys didn't have that option, they would have still taken the Buccaneers. Would you have still taken the Buccaneers? I take I would. If I don't have the Seahawks, I'd take the Buccaneers. For me, it's the Buccaneers. If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers. If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers. Clim Haskins

ain't pulling no upset. You know he's still in Minnesota, Gold and Gopher Land. Uh in the and and the final question, we live in a bizarro world, including tonight's game. They're sixteen of them, no one has a buy anymore, and you were forced to bet fifteen of them. You were forced to bet fifteen of them. But there was one game on the line that you want no part of whatsoever? Aaron, What's the game you would want no part of? Here? Chicago, Minnesota? Chicago, Minnesota, Mikey game you

want no part of. I don't want any part of the Titans Lions because the Stafford situation. I don't know if he's playing or not, Todd, I don't want any part of tonight's game. I think tonight's game is ridiculous. What the hell is gonna happen here? The Chargers? Who knows what you get with the Chargers. So I don't want any part of this. This charge of Rader nonsense. Tennessee Detroit is the obvious one with Stafford status. Uh and then again tonight because we don't know if those

guys are playing on the Chargers yet. But if I were to remove those two from the equation, I think Baltimore Jacksonville for me, with that number is the one. Again, Baltimore is so dependent on game script. Do they fall behind, do they go If they go ahead, they could win this by seventy points, but if they fall behind, just I always worry about them. So I'll just say that one because it's a big number. I mean, I'm sure they'll win, but by how much I don't know. That

would be mine. Aaron, speaking of Baltimore, I don't think Baltimore and defense is that great. What's your opinion on that? We have them a thon defense this year? So that's pretty higher than I would have thought. What happened the other night was perplexing, wasn't it? Against Cleveland? They couldn't get him off the field. They were not defense against Cleveland. Yeah, they would lose. They lost a lot of guys injuries. They had a lot of guys go out with injuries

in that game. They did as the game progressed, Aaron, where does the Rams defense rank? We have the Rams defense right now? Third? Who's number one? Aaron? Number one defense is Pittsburgh? Okay, I would rather have the Rams defense in Pittsburgh defense. I I Pittsburgh is a good defense, but I as a Pittsburgh star or enzer, I think they're a little overrated. I'd rather have the Rams. What do you do you you really like believe in that?

Or you do you think Pittsburgh defense Pittsburgh? I mean when everybody's healthy, and they haven't been the last week or two, right, Joe Hayden was out last week, but everybody's healthy. I believe Pittsburgh is the best defense in the league. Yeah, the problem. Number two, it's number two. Number two is New Orleans. But they wouldn't be number two if the Kendall Hainton game didn't take pH interesting. So it's basically pittsburgher the Rams. You feel the two

top defenses? Yeah? And then New Orleans? How about Washington? Where do they rank now? Fourth? Fourth? And who's the number two? In family feud we're getting we're gonna run the board. We're gonna assume you've killed the city. Number one in offense, and then who are now three day now number one in offense to the city last week? And then who's number three? The number three offense right now is Tennessee. Okay, Aaron, thank you the founder of

Football Outsiders. Uh tell the people where they should go and get all the stuff a Football Outsiders there, it is right on your wall. Well they gotta they can't go to your wall though. Football Outsiders dot Com is the website check out all of our content. FO plus is the subscription product with a big database of all the istv o A splits going all the way back to five picks against the spread, fantasy projections every week. A bunch of stuff we're working on for the off season.

So Football Outsiders dot Com all right, and Erin, I look forward to you and I do are one on one on the radio side for a segment after the regular season prior to the postseason. Absolutely we do some playoff previewing. Man, I apparcially really enjoyed your Out of all our guests, I really enjoyed you. Thank you. Definitely in the top two, who was who was else in the top two? No, I never like to make people

number one without everybody everybody else tied for first. What kind of because I really enjoy the whole rankings of the different defenses and stuff like that. That's a whole show. Yeah, we could do a whole thing, all that historical I love it. I freaking love it now now. But I I just never say anyone's a top without thinking through all the things. So you're definitely in the top two.

But I just went to I want to apologize for the for the other two people who couldn't even get ladies from the back of the round to the thing, and they're just a disaster errand so thank you for putting up with their really poor professionalism and they're ranting and raving against one of the great geniuses of our time.

Thank you, I'm sure. In Aaron's accomplishments founding Football Outsiders, appearing on Late Night with Seth Meyers getting a vote now from the Associated Press for all of football's prestigious awards. That you're ranking him number two is among his career achievements. I didn't know. No, See, that's perfect way to reward what I'm saying. I said, he's definitely in the top two, which could mean he's number one. It just means I haven't thought through all the guests to invariably give him

number one. But thank you for changing what I said in pure UH speak, and and and and trying to manipulate what I said when it's not what I said. I think stand correctly. I take without doing a deep dive. Brent is probably number one in your mind with the Amy Colney Barrett discussion. But we had Brent Musburger on Aaron and the first thing he did was get political on us. It was very uncomfortable. Yeah, pass, yeah, say Mike Palm. You U should have seen Mike Palm pandering

to Brent like you've never seen fer. He looked like Mitch McConnell. He was unbelievable with the pandering. He was like, oh, Brand, Oh I love when you breakfast in bed that one time room? What was it like? Oh, by the way I love you? Did I mention I love you? Brand? Anyway? There was that, Aaron, we appreciate it. We've taken enough of your time. I really appreciate. I hope this wasn't as painful as it might have seemed to us watching

you'd endure this. No, I made it through safely. He did the rhythm has been has been a I got the rhythm, yes, yeah, you have to have a certain you know, water off a duck's back and when you come on here like ed Fing who just gets right into it. HD. Just that's right there. Uh four Mike Palm for top wish that have for Aaron Shots, Gil Alexander, thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all your bets in week fifteen. Let's go survivor. Let's get

through eighty two left. We'll see how many next week. Thanks for listening. Yeah,