Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 14 Preview

with the Vaga Pod. I appreciate it. I think I had a big week last week, tod It's gonna update that momentarily, as always the regulars on the show. What I'm dejected now, I'm blown the lead. You're you zoom past me. I can't beat one into one and two for like four straight weeks. I know. I'd like to, I'd like to brag, but I'm like twenty seventeen and two or something, so it's not that much to brag about.

That's the voice of Mike Palm, the the conciliary to Derek Stevens here at Circuit Sports, Vice President of Operations. Thank you, Mikey for having us at the d where we are live each and every week. It's exciting, exciting to be at bar Canada, exciting to have a Canadian on. Yes, an actual Canadian, real life Canadian. Let's say hello to Todd Wishing at first tailor staple of the show. Hello Todd, how are you? Todd? Hi? Mike, how are you start

the showtime Action? Our docuseries Action And the actual Canadian that you're talking about, because we're coming from bar Canada air at the day, I believe it's in Alberta, Canada, Am correct in that? Is that correct? Adam Alberta, Canada. Yes, indeed, the great Adam Churnoff, who I have never had the pleasure of meeting before. I've never had the pleasure of having him on the podcast. Uh. He is the host

of The Simple Handicap. Wherever podcasts are distributed, Uh, it is a must listen, especially in the year of COVID, to have updates on a daily basis. You do a spectacular job with that. You do a spectacular job on Visa on Follow the Money, Adam, thank you for doing this man, thanks for having me on. It's the megaput.

I'm looking forward to it. Thank you. I appreciate it. Um. So, before we get into the three best bets and our teaser legs, uh Survivor thoughts, and of course the final two questions about which big favorite is most likely lose out right? Which game you want no part of? Mikey a Circus Survivor and if you want to a circum Millions update if you'd like, well the millions everybody, how could you pick a loser? I mean, we're a hundred and fifty people went five and oh and I managed

to eight hundred and eighty one. People are four and one are better to start out the fourth quarter? So I'm like Cramer on the on the final quarterly, I'm like, I'm out. So yeah, that's where that stands. And the presence the guy that has three entries, he's in first third and died for ten Adam, are you in Circle Millions? I am not not involved in any content. If I if I lived a little bit closer, potentially that would change. Yes.

Now in the Survivor, we went from one oh three down to eighty nine, with twelve entries going the way of the Dodo on the Seahawks who are upset by the Giants, and another two on Monday with your football team rallying from fourteen nothing down with the help of a missing Caball to upset the Steelers and end there and then and then their undefeated season. So we're down to eighty nine, of which two have the Seahawks available

this week laying fourteen against the Jets at home. Yes, so this week comes down this was so I look at it this way as one of the final eighty nine people in there, or it's actually eighty four people

but eight um five with two. This is the This is the final week where there is either no carnage at all because everybody's going to take the Seahawks and they end up winning, which is very possible to be the Jets, or it's supreme carnage in that everybody takes the Seahawks and somehow they managed to lose that game. But this is the final week where I think it. I think it's the last week where everybody's got the obvious team available. After this, it's going to get very interesting.

Three and a half still my over under on the chop. I like my number to twenty nine and a half todds going under on both of us. James Salinas, your friend and professional contest player and a co host of the Mike Pritchard Power Hour on Visa and UH said that my number was super sharp, that he put it right at thirty. Uh, and it was based on seven people last week having two entries still Uh, the multiple entries um all is convinced at sixty now he went

out from fifty to sixty five after last. People don't understand there's still a quarter of the season left. After this week, it's going to go. Week seventeen will be very difficult because you have to assess who's trying to play. Correct, that's the thing, and hopefully you're down to you know, few enough people. If you're still in that your headge

can be pretty obvious. And circummillions Uh, Las Vegas Chris, who was a it was nice enough to get a guest on the megapod last week, mentioned to me that people should know because he's got two entries in contention. If you're at the top of circum millions, know that the tiebreaker is the last quarter and so you've kind of already virtually lost a half game before you even

start here. Correct, Yeah, there's tiebreakers. There are no tiebreakers and survivor why did you decide on that tiebreaker, by the way, because we wanted one person to win a million dollars. Yeah, we wanted to give a check for a million. Uma there was I I understand why you survived with the and that's why I have this background up for you in the Raiders game. I thought about it long and hard, and now I finally realized what

happened last week. I was winning every single early game bet, which I did win except for one, which was the Houston Texans plus three against the Colts. And the Texans were inside the five yard line late in the game. All they have to do is punch it in. They go up by one, they end up losing by two and a OG or they end up winning the game. And I cover every single game now because Hashem doesn't like me, he won't let me get a full slate

of bets all to win. So and then the law of physics says that energy cannot be you know, lost or gained. It can only be transformed. So the energy that was being used to wipe me out in that football game was then no longer available when Greg Williams's brain needed to tell them to be in pre event. Therefore, allowing for the most ridiculous ending in the history of a football game, and you surviving in Survivors. So that was probably the only I wish you had a camera

on me. When my eye saw Henry Ruggs go past Lamar Jackson at that ball was in the air, I went ballistic by two things. One for those who are like, what is Hashem? Hashem again the Hebrew for the name, which is what orthodox use. Todd was one of them, once upon a time called God, and Todd believes that Hashem has a lifelong fan dead against him. I don't believe in the old man with a scoreboard type of God. But I just do it as a joke because we always joke around about how I find a way to

lose to an earthquake. It's only you who gets bad beats, not only you, know, it is only let's put it this way, everyone gets a certain percentage of bad beats. I get fifth standard deviation. Okay, I don't know about that. Uh. This is where I go to Adam though, because on the simple handicap Adam. Adam has done a spectacular job of out of laying out what happened at the end of that game, and I think it was in the prison. You correct me if I'm rolling adam of people who

thought it was a tank. You you had a whole thing about this. Yeah. So I'm lifelong Jets fan from Saskatchewan, Canada, which makes a lot of sense, but they've always in my but like Greg Williams has a history of doing this, and he essentially did it the entire two thousand's seventeen season with the Browns, who also happened to have sort of a similar record to the Jets, which hopefully I

don't they don't finish with. But like, remember when he did that whole angel safety thing where he was playing a guy like thirty yards off the line of scrimmage up a touchdown against Darren Rodgers and thought it was a good idea and he just let the Packers walk down the field twice in the fourth quarter and overtime and he didn't really there was nobody was talking about panking like we are now um at that time, and

he sort of got a pass for it. And so like I think now he's doing essentially or was doing the exact opposite with the Jets when he's bringing zero blitz against the Raiders, in that situation against Derek Carr, who's like the last quarterback you're gonna do that against.

But like, what's the benefit of him was getting a salary, Like it's likely going to be his last DC job, He's making a million and a half and he's going to throw it away all for the better of the Jets franchise, who were gonna get Trevor Lawrence next year when he's not even involved, Like, I just I don't see the upside for him just doing doing the Jets of solid and thinking about the great of the franchise

long term. I think it was just him being an incompetent defensive coordinator and actually thinking that it was a good idea. So um for me, I'm not a huge tanking guy, especially in the NFL where it's so physical and there's a lot of money at stake for these guys and jobs. I think it's just that there's a lot of incompetent defensive and offensive coordinators head coaches too, and we sort of lose track of that and think

there's something bigger going on. And arrogance, right, just complete arrogance on his part and especially from him and what he's done over the last decade in the NFL. I just couldn't believe it when when Car overthrown I don't really know if it was an overthrown, but when he had Agalore the previous play open and he overshot him, I immediately, as a guy who had the raiders and survivor, I was like, oh, that was the chance, that was the play. Oh, I can't believe I had a shot

at this. And then explain it happens again, and it's amazing. The one thing, poor Lamar Jackson on an island bit on a fake they have no time out. He bites inside and Rugs, who does one thing better than any other human on the planet or most humans, is run by You did just that and Car hits him. I'll if I get to the end, I will remember that for a lifetime. And I'm going in. If you don't get to the end, you'll remember it. That's true. That ridiculous.

But I'm gonna send Rugs and Car something in the mail if that happens. When Um Glennon when they were up nine nothing the Jags and they had a first down round of the Vikings thirty and they got a false start, so it was first and fifteen and then Glennon through an interception. Yes, I got a text from someone who's still in the survivor and he said, when everyone when everyone is chopping up their checks at the end of the year for a survivor, they'll be talking

about where they were when Glennon through this interception. That's nothing compared to the who knew who knew that that would happen at the end. Compared to that, Yeah, I wonder who that was. If you want me to give you the for the for the record, let's up the record. Before I do that, I'll just say, you know, I grew up in Pittsburgh, but I'm a huge Moose, just Saskatchewan Warriors fan for many many years. I'm just I looked that up at him anyways, uh uh the uh Okay,

So gilly Ice, it's what they call him. Gilly Ice went three and oh last week outstanding. Now there was another person that also happened to go three and oh. And that's me too, baby, three and oh for me as well, and might eat palm right down the drain with a one in two including by the way, you lost that same um I had the plus three in Houston. You had the over, which was a horrible beat. It was at the half and somehow goes under final scor.

That's incredible beat, Mike, that's incredible. I couldn't get over seven in the second half. That's what essentially my bet was unbelievable. It is what it is. But I don't think God had anything to do with it. You're not blaming God? No, no, okay, well, I mean, ultimately I don't really believe in that type of God either, But it's just a funny thing to say. Now. Gil is now seventeen and two, which in first place, mikey at eighteen nineteen and two and me right on his heels

at eighteen twenty and one. In the teaser category, I am still the leader at nine and four Gil and Mike was solid eight and five numbers. So though, that is the year. Little update from last weekend for the season, thank you, and now we can commence with Thursday Night Football. Court stenographer Todd wishne um I failed to mention Adam any thoughts on Thursday Night Football. Maybe it's one of your best bets, maybe it's not, but just a few words if it's done. Uh, nothing for me on this one.

I see that Pat's money continues to come in. He's even as we're talking. But um, I guess the only thing that I sort of came to mind when I saw this game and the number, which I thought was right when it opened, now getting a little bit shorter. But um, obviously the Patriots have that blueprint to beat Jared Goff. They have the quarters defense in their back pocket that they threw at him in the Super Bowl. We saw floor As do it with Miami against them this year as well, and so the game plan for

them is certainly there. But this is the Pat's defense that is trending towards one of the worst seven or eight in the league, and it's the defense I've been very much down on. So my sort of trust in them executing that and being able to generate pressure on golf is not very high. So it's it's going to be a stay away from me. This is actually a pick for me. Is it for you or or you Todd? Anybody think for you? It must be the Patriots. No,

absolutely not. You like the Rams tonight especially it's going the other way. It just warn you that in the fourth quarter you're gonna be rooting for Jared Goff, now continue, thank you, thank you for that. R mind. I will remember that when the fourth quarter starts being oh yeah, I forgot about this. I like the Rams. It's four and a half now, by the way, it just keeps coming. I wish it was four by the time we had done this, but I'll take I'll lay the four and

a half. Agree with everything that Adam just said about the Patriots defense trending the wrong way. For me, this is this is more the other side of the ball, to which is Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams. And Darius Williams, who's not as big of a household name as Jalen Ramsey is, actually ranks higher, like in Pro Football Focus corner ratings, like fourth in the league. I think Jalen's

like sixties or seventeen. Those guys. The luxury of having those guys on an island against Cam Newton, who, by the way, in the forty five and nothing win over the Chargers. As Aaron Shots told me, his second worst special teams the Chargers second word special teams. In the last thirty five years, he hasn't ranked um but but Cam Newton through for sixty nine yards, Jalen Ramsey and

Darius Williams. The thought of them, like Jalen Ramsey having to cover Jacoby Myers like doesn't really scare me that much. I don't know how the Rams score it, excuse me how the Patriots score in this game. So I really like the Rams tonight for all for both of those reasons, on both sides of the ball. Um, and I'll lay the four and a half. That's my number two pick of the week. Okay, let me ask you a few questions. If the a line we're six, would you lay six?

Maybe not? Maybe? Maybe not? Yeah, but four and a half? I mean they feel a begging me. How do you feel about a total of forty four? If you think the Patriots will really struggle to score? Well, the Patriots path to victory is just like how they did it last week. You know, it's like the races, like the Ravens and the Cowboys the other night, right, the Cowboys get ten points based on a pick in a short field on a Pollard big kickoff return. I don't know

how the Cowboys score otherwise if they don't get the help. Um, that's how I feel about the Patriots tonight. Well, the Rams are number one in yards per play at four point six per given up. The closest person to them or team is New Orleans at four point nine. And now what we all know, I am a big proponent of stats, Lie and Atlanta Falcons are thirty one at six point two yards per play given up. And they are not, I repeat, they are not the thirty first

worst defense in the National Football League. There probably somewhere in the mid teens. So of course the stats lie, but the Rams are definitely an elite defense in today's NFL. So I agree with you. It's gonna be very tough for for New England to score in this game. The only thing is you have to root for Jared Goff and his look of deer in the headlights late in the ball game when it's four and a half, and you're gonna be crying later because you're gonna be like,

I have everything based on this guy. Come on, and he's gonna have to throw too because they can't run the ball. I didn't know that. I didn't know that my pick has to withstand cross examination, but I appreciate it. That the the the the thing about Jared Pick, whoever you want we're you know, and you'll probably win. I'm just saying, you know, no, no no, no, if if it's a good point though, if Jared Goff, we're playing a primetime game in Chicago, do you remember that gaming played

in Chicago a couple of years ago? Nothing or something? It was it was thirty two degrees Fahrenheugh Adam. I don't know what that is in celsius for you Canadians, I'm not sure what it is, but it's it's exactly warm summer day. I think it's zero degrees, right, because thirty two is freezing. Zero is freezing celsius, right, so it's zero, so it's not that old. It's just kind of cold. But the kid from the West Coast, he like, he looked like it was thirty two below the way

he was playing that. But it's in l a subtract thirty two times by nine divide by five zero right, thirty correct? Very good, uh formula. What about Michael Lombardi's theory boy Todd's Todd's good friend Michael Lombardi and Michael Lombardi did something very nice in helping Dianna get tickets to go to the Patriots pregame season game, and then um, you know after that, who knows what? Yeah, who knows? Continue? Who says you should never pre flop a RAMS game?

You should always wait and read Jared Goff's body language because you can tell by the end of the first quarter what his mental state is by his body language. Advice not bad advice. Well, he's almost right. You should never pre pre flop an NFL game, period. Why would you? Yeah, that's kind of true too. What do we do in here? He's all right, that's the end of the show. Everybody right at the foundations of the meg there goes to just pars just right right when he was within a

half game of second. My brand is honesty. Your brand, Your brand is a little bit more you know, spin oriented more akin with two thousand twenty. You're more of a spinning type of guy. I'm more of a truth in your face guy. Talking to you. You're talking to or me? Yeah, first of all, were talking that you, Mikey, I don't know I was That was a toss up, so I leaned to you the whole time. I'm not a spinster, I'm a Spence. You're the ultimate spinster. You

are Mr spin spin Spinster. All right, let's start with the best bets. For God's sakes, let's go to Adam churt Off again, the host of The Simple Handicap Available. We're all podcasts are distributed, yes, Adam, Yeah, Primary, Apple and Spotify if you can. If you can find podcasts, you'll find it. How many times a week do you put these these out? Every day? Every morning? It's was correct? You think of it like a ten of fifteen minute

briefing on the market where prices are moving. And it's just sort of like people say, they listen to it walking the dog on the way to work, in the train, in the car. So it's just a quick morning pot every day. And let me just say before I put in my Survivor pick, this is a true story. One of the last things I consulted. Did could Adam give me something in the injury report that I've missed? So I absolutely give it a listen before putting it in. I love I love your podcast. What is your first

best bet? Sir? It's probably going to be viewed as the squarest bet on the board, and people listening to the show, very intelligent listeners are probably gonna gock at it. But I have to lay seven and a half with the Packers on the road versus the Lions, and I don't know how much longer this number is going to be available for. But like, it's great that the Lions get Patricia out of there. It great they get to come back against the Bears. The comments were fantastic about

the new energy with Bevil, but let's be honest. Bevil is not fixing this defense for the Lions anytime soon. And I'm not sure that there's the worst secondary in the NFL right now. Then the Detroit Lions, and this goes back to mid season when they were primarily a man defense team. They struggled some injuries, but then Patricia was actually smart enough to realize, Okay, we can't continue to play man coverage because we just don't have the

talent on this roster. And so like Week six, they made the switch to zone and they've sort of been increasing their zone usage rate every single week since. But it's not working in their favor. Right. You look at some of these quarterbacks in their yards protempt and success.

Matt Ryan through for eight yards per pass, Philip Rivers through for eight yards per pass, Kirk Cousins through for eleven yards per pass, Alex Smith through for seven and a half, p J Walker XFL product through for seven and a half, Watson through for twelve and a half on Thanksgiving, then Trubisky twice this season eight yards per passed against the Lions. And so now they get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I look through Aaron Rodgers just

to sort of look at his season. I think we remember the Tampa Bay game where he was ugly and strewing picks. Believe it or not. His second worst performance this season in terms of like yardage output passer rating was against the Lions in Week two, the Packers one forty two to twenty one. And so this is a Packers team that's already moved the ball on the Lions. This is a team I think they can move the

ball on the Lions again. And just from sort of the market perspective, we didn't see this number adjust despite the Packers dominating the Eagles, and then we saw the Lions get that win late, so there wasn't really much credit given to them. Two books on the board have gone from seven and a half to eight, and they were Chris and circa and so you know who's moving those numbers, and you know what type of bettors are

playing into those markets. Early you compared to some of the other books on the board, maybe a little more recreational focused. Still sitting at seven and a half. I think with a favorite a big which usually sort of taboo to let as many points, you're getting the high total, so it's not as relevant. But it's a big price that I don't usually lay, but I'm pretty happy to lay it here with the packers Green Bay Adam's first

pick of the week. Yes, geniuses are not always right in the NFL, so no need to apologize for standing up to their snob snobbery in telling in making you feel bad about your pick, you like your pick. And by the way, they're wrong all the time. They were wrong on the Tampa Bay overs every single week last year. Okay, so take that snobbery, idiot analytic jerk offs, Thank you, Adam. I just want to apologize in it. Fans are you're talking about? Who is she talking about? Who are they?

I don't know who are they talking Adam? Because Bernie Harrowite like really smarty pants people are gonna not like his pick. He doesn't have to apologize for his pick. His pick is goddamn good and f them. Who are these smarty pants? Is though whoever Adam was concerned about. But I mean, it's not a concern about them. But I think, like anyone who's done this long and like laying more than a touchdown on the road typically, Um, not the most ad advantageous spot to get your money

in the NFL pregame, but we understood the total. With the total this high, it's sort of the values that a little bit. But that's just sort of what I was putting up. Of course I took the incoming you know. All right, so Green Bay pick number one from Adam Churnoff mikey Well Todd referenced this game last week in Houston, Uh, with the Colts over, and um, I'm not going to get off it. I'm going back to Colts Raiders over fifty and hand is that the numbers? You've got fifty one? Todd? Damn.

But if I'm not going to get a Colts over week this week, well, you know, the original, the original Rudy Rudyard Kipling, you know, wrote there are only four things Rudy, Rudy imperialist Rudy didn't know. There are only four things certain since social progress began. That the dog returns to his vomit, the pig returns to her meyer, and the burnt fool's bandaged finger goes wobbling back to the fire. And I'm going right back to the fire with the Colt silver look that games should have went

over ten times last week. This Raiders defense is not good, not good, They're just not good. Do you know my internal thoughts? My well, I was hoping to get them through Survivors, like God, get me through this. This defense is atrocious, atrocious, It's atrocious, and yet Bruden calls a good game and they're able to use the tight end and they missed the running back last week obviously. But again the number is short to me. I think this number should be fifty four or fifty three and a half.

So that's my best, what neuse, that's what I have mostly, that's okay. There's some fifty and a half talking here, Las Vegas, part Vegas, your Vegas Raiders. I'm sorry, I have it on spreads. Hope, please hope, please not prepared for the question. Apologies, um the internet here at the at Bar Canada is fabulous, though fifty one is what I have. There have secondary issues for the Raiders. You want to work and the favorite that over for sure

serious secondary issues. Yeah, our net has the concussion. There's a couple of other sort of depth corners who are not practicing so far. So it certainly makes that Raiders defense a lot worse. I will say Cleland to Cleveland. Farrell had a couple of strip sacks in that game against the Jets which were huge, but you know, offensively the Raiders just a brief aside I said before that game, I was like, why don't the Raiders I'm no football genius, but but why don't they just go to Waller every

single place? Like It's just amazing. It's so simple with them, um, and you would think defenses would figure out a way to do this. Maybe some have kind of this year. The Jets certainly didn't figure that out. No, they did not. Waller is just a beast. Todd, I'm sorry, God wishing of everybody from Pittsburgh. My first pick is going to be if it ain't broke, don't fix it type of thing. Here. The Tennessee Titans are nine and two to the over

this year nine overs and two unders. The first under was the first game of the year and since then eight overs. Since then, every game pretty much goes over. The Bears game didn't go over, but the Bears don't really have an offense. Other than that, every single game goes over. With the Tennessee Titans now Jacksonville the last couple of weeks has shown a propensity to be able

to move the ball a little bit. So maybe you know, Glennon or whoever they've got starting a quarterback is you know, passable and he could probably get some points against Tennessee. We know Tennessee is going to score like crazy because every week that's what happens. So how can you go under in this game? The team's played the like second week of the season, sixty three points I believe was the final. It's only over fifty three, um, I mean, Tennessee is just an over monster of a team. They

can't stop anybody, and you can't stop them. So as long as Jacksonville can get you twenty four points, boom, you're in without without even a sniff. So give me over fifty three in Tennessee against the Jacksonville Jaguars, please.

And Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders on a numbers game this morning and uh the quarter pole appearance on the show and asked him who were the teams that they're most volatile performances from week to week, and he said San Francisco, Cleveland and Jacksonville, which had always concerned survivor players that when they faced Jacksonville and the two teams that he said were the most consistent from week to week. And he guesses, tell me if they're top tier middle

tier teams. One is top tier and the other is middle the middle to bottom. So it's not the one I was thinking. Kansas City is the top tier team in the Chicago Bears really just every week, saying I couldn't say the Washington football team. They're pretty consistent. Yeah, yeah, Aaron Shots, I make him minus one eighty to be a megapodcast before the season. It's over. Okay, what do you know that I don't um? Alright, So here's uh

so I already gave you my number two picks. So this is my number one pick and this was your number two pick. That is correct my number and I don't know. The order doesn't really matter, right, doesn't not at all, not at all, So just make this my number two pick. And this falls under the category of bets you have to make or you have to be willing to lose tip of the cap if the Philadelphia Eagles can beat me. So I'm taking the New Orleans Saints. It's it was six and a half this morning. Now

it's back to seven. I see tons of seven place. I think it's seven, but it was six and a half earlier, So so let's say minus seven reduced shoes. Obviously, I don't like it as much at seven as I did at six and a half. But Jalen Hurts was was wonderful filling in for Carson wentz Uh nice performance, nice spark, But this is his first game as a starter,

and this New Orleans defense is four reels. And I just don't understand the money coming I didn't understand the money coming in on the Patriots, not I don't understand the money coming in on the Eagles. I must be missing something. Um. I'm not a huge tastom Hill guy, so I will say that. Um. But it's just again, it's this. It's if a rookie quarterback playing in his very first start can come in and cover that number against that good of a defense. Um tip of the cap.

I'm taking New Orleans. I'm not thinking about it too hard. New Orleans minus seven is my second pick. Why isn't Sean Payton getting more credited or love for Coach of the Year He should I said, I said it a month ago. What he's doing with this team, what he's doing using multiple quarterbacks, another team consistent weekend and week out with what they've done. I mean, Flores has probably you know your leader, but to have Peyton still at

seven to one, it doesn't make sense to me. Think about has there ever been a year where there have been so many poor coaching performances in so many great ones? And it's it's reflective of the what I call the ever widening chasm of the haves and have nots in the NFL. But O'Brien, quinn and Patricia already gone, Lynn, Naggie Gaze, Taylor Morone. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody you could make a case for firing, even though the Chargers saying

not so fast with Anthony Lynn. But then on the other side, Flores read Tomlin Belichick with this group Rivera taking cancer treatments at halftime earlier in the year, Judge Stefanski, we never say McDermott, we should and Peyton, there's so many How about Anthony lynnon comparing this season to Pearl Harbor? Where are we going? Didn't he do that on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor? The day after? He said it was just Pearl Harbor? Did It's sort of like if

we could come back from Pearl Harbor. You know what he's saying. Nobody has died this year. Boy, he's a special teams coach. He's three years with the Broncos. That's how he broke in as a special teams coach. I mentioned that today and the put team is just so bad. They get a pot blocked every week now one returned for a touchdown, another one returned sixty one yards last week, the second. We're special teams through three quarters through the in the last thirty five years, according to d b

O a pretty strong number two. Number two Adams, sorry, Adam, our guest. Adam turned off everybody. Well, I think it's a double down on the Saints, like you just mentioned, and I like it. And to men to sort of follow up on Peyton. He did this last year when Bridgewater came in, like they didn't miss a beat and it was like a much more comparable quarterback style wise debrees. But what he's done with Hill this year has been

really good. But this is now the fourth consecutive week with Hill as the starter where there's been money coming in against the Saints. And even there was that COVID move against the Broncos with the QB situation, but that number was going towards Denver as it was, so there was just people that are betting against the Saints and Hill.

And I think the thing that's sort of being missed within this is like, obviously, Hill is a less explosive quarterback option for the Saints to have, if you can even say less explosive relative to Breeze, but he reduces the variance of the offensive game plan too. Essentially nothing right. It's it's so conservative, it's so safe, but it's very effective.

And in this handicap against the Eagles, Philadelphia one of the better front sevens in football, fifth in rushing success rate defense for the season, but the couple of games where they've really struggled twice against the Giants and then

once against the Baltimore Ravens. What both of those teams have in common, and it's a mobile quarterback, and specifically the Ravens well, but the Packers more so, like not as this power, read, running blocking team like the Ravens were, but certainly the Packers had success, but it's essentially the same scheme that they faced with Baltimore that they just

couldn't stop. And I would argue that the way the season is trending with Hill, the Saints are a little bit more effective, get healthier on the offensive line this week, healthier on the defensive side as well, And like I was looking at this number, so like the market sort of established itself early last week with the look Ahead,

which was six and a half. Obviously smaller limits and smaller beds, but like that number was made before this Hurts news was really made public, and so a lot of that I think was priced in mind with Wentz as the starter, and we haven't seen a huge adjustment. It's one bad quarterback to relatively an unknown, but um around seven that you're not gonna see a huge move. But I think like the downside with Hurts as a rookie, who's going to make the Eagles more run orientated against

the Saints defense. It's very good. The downside with Hurts is much greater than the downside with a really bad game from Wentz, and so I don't think that that's necessarily fully priced into this number. And that's why I think there's value, certainly at six and a half with the Saints this morning, I like it. We should just let Adam talk rather than three of us probably on so number two is is my number two as well on the Saints. I like it Adam when we're on

the same side here, Mike Palm, everybody. I'm gonna take Todd's favorite team, the Atlanta Falcons, against Brother Lynn's pathetic Chargers. That's my number three, all right. I just I just wanted to point out I can't pack the Chargers here, and I think Todd is right. The Falcons defense is improving. They were competitive in this game with the Saints. Now the missfield goal, I thought they could have opened the game up the Saints and they didn't, and they let

Atlanta hang around there. But look at I'll take I'll take Matt Ryan and that offense and an improving defense and the special teams. That's not going to kill you. Against the Chargers team where the players just have to be shaking their heads, asked and where are we at? How are we any good? That we continued that we lost forty five to nothing in the game. We were a point and a half favorite at home. There could be a checkout factor. That's what I'm thinking, I really am.

So that's my number two. Did you see boss quote? Oh? I think what reminds us again? What it was? Bosa came out and he said, well, I'm going to be playing hard this We we can, but I'm not sure anyone else is. I didn't hear that. That's that's amazing to come out and say that. Uh. And I can't speak for the guy next to me, but I am wow. Um, that was that one nipped? Another one for my for

my number three, uh dot number two. My number two is going to be done in the voice of a concerned We are in a lot of trouble here people. I know people think eleven and oh, we can't be beating at But let me tell you. If Pittsburgh Stollars have some problems in running a football, we can't run the football from don Kown East Liberty, We're gonna have

a big problem. If we think we're gonna go up against the Kansas City Chiefs or even the Buffalo Bills this week and think we're just gonna get W after W after w we can't do it just throwing the ball. Look, I love Big Ben, He's fucking fantastic. But here's the deal. We can't run the football. And if you can't run the football, the other team can key on what you're doing.

And that's what the Washington Redskins did and the Worhington football team did do us and gave us no opportunities to win a football game we had no business losing. So I'm really concerned about my Pittsburgh Stellers and I'm gonna go against them because I figure, look if I go against them, at least I make some money. If they lose the ball game, I don't feel that bad, and then I can go have a big milk with

my family. So here's the deal. I'm taking the Bills, the Buffalo Bills against the Pittsburgh Stellers, and I'm gonna lay the minus two and a half. I think that Josh Allen guy is gonna give us all kinds of trouble all kinds of trouble that Josh Allen and uh, I don't know. I don't think we can run the football. Bottom line is we're not that great. What's that? What's that thing you do a bottom line? I don't get that part. That's part of the Pittsburgh stiller's voice. And

Myron Cope used to do that. If you remember him, he's the one he used to tell you, Jerome Bus Battis is running down the field, you can't stop stop Bus. That was an excellent, excellent you can only do that growing up where you did, that's outstanding. Let me ask you a question. Big Ben literally has it in his nickname, the word big. Does he not sneak anymore either? On fourth and one with just under five minutes left in a tie game, what is that? Adam? I always talk

about this with Philip Rivers. Ben doesn't do it either. Now while on the play call and electing to go where they did with that pass was just bizarre. But it just picking up five yards for the Steelers passing and just seems so strenuous, like it's just it's so simplistic, an elementary and the rubs that they're running, it's just it's tough to watch. I saw your tweet. Non creative. That's the exact word to use. It's completely non creative.

I don't get it. I don't I don't know the deal with big but I said that the Lombardi Lombardi said, Gilly doesn't want to get hurt. I'm like, at a tie game with less than five minutes to get to it once. But how are you going to get hurt on it? On a quarterback keeper? What's so dangerous about a quarterback keeper? You take the ball, you lunge forward. I mean, unless the guys are gonna like grab your balls or something, how are you going to get into it?

I mean Patrick Mahomes got hurt doing it? Right. So there is that bitty itty bitty Breeze sticks the ball like this, He takes any just sticks it over. What Breeze does that way? Breeze the smallest dude out there, right, and he does that way? Why can't big men do that? Well? First of all, I got I got one other problem. You can't win in the NFL throwing every single down. You have to be able to run a little bit. Don't you just even a little taste of the run.

To give the other team maybe the idea that there's gonna be something else besides just the seven yard pass. Did you do every play? It's not gonna work. Listen, I agree with you, Todd. Look at how Kansas City missed Hilaire Sunday night. That was definitely took some dynosaism away from their offense in that game and made them very vulnerable at home against against the Broncos. Yeah. I'm not one of these guys that preaches, oh, you have

to have balance and you have to do this. Look, we've seen Bill Belichick whin running the ball a hundred times in a row and throwing the ball hundred times in a row. I have no problem if it's done strategically, but if it's done because because we cannot run the ball, which the Washington football team figured out very quickly, you're going to have a problem. And look the Steelers, Let's

be honest. The Steelers had a bunch of really close calls early in the year against Denver with Driscoll in there. Against Houston. I mean, they're not really an eleven and O football teach you all. You all made fun of me when I said Kansas City will be minus five if they come to Pittsburgh in the a f C Championship Game. Everyone's like, Oh, that's ridiculous. No, wait, they

could easily. We both three Chris from Las Vegas, a man named Michael Palm who slightly wrote Tuned, and another man named Gilly Ice all said I was a lunatic for saying that Kansas City couldst not have it. No, but he said that we agreed with you. We didn't agree with him. We didn't agree with I didn't agree with Chris is going down to the bet with the book right now to bet against that idea. That's exactly there was right, Well done to checkmates. Yeah, can we

stop with this star? Was the star of Action? That's disrespectful to crack Wins. Todd was featured in Action. Okay, Todd was one of the four major players of Action. They plucked him out of a room of people at the South Points. What's interesting is they picked me to be on the Showtime show when I wasn't even planned

to be on because I'm not really that entertaining. As most media companies in the sports gambling business, No, Todd, you always have a home right here on the megapod because I know talent and I see it and I'm looking at talent. Damn it, you might be the best scout of talent since Bill ad Let's not get crazy. Okay, now we're getting two inside jokey and everyone's gonna complain because Mikey and Gil do too too many inside jokes. I I that people do people of the inside jokes. Yeah, No,

it's annoying. It's annoying. We have inside jokes and no one gets it. That's not fun. It's not fun. There's no inside jokes. That was more fun when I make really obvious jokes or you sing. Yes, we haven't. We haven't gotten to the singing portion of the show yet. Where are we? Number three from Adam? Number two? I'm sorry, Todd. That was my pick minus two and a half. Because I was listening for the accident. I had no idea

what the pick was, Alright, Adam was the Bills? Was the Bills minus two and a half because the Steelers are very concerning to me, and uh, I think the Bills can beat the Steelers minus two and a half. Anthony McFarland had no idea. That was a back shoulder throw by the way did you have do you have last thing about this? Did you have problems getting it? I was so frustrated that I could not get this game on the local Fox affiliate TMZ showed it. I have Direct TV, and it did. I couldn't get it

on my phone or on my laptop. Really couldn't get it. You have the package, yeah, and but but apparently it was NFL Sunday ticket to everybody. I couldn't get it. No, I didn't hear that, so I had to drive to the South Point. I didn't get it because I have cocks. I do too, but I thought it was going to be on Fox five, so I didn't make an effort to be somewhere to watch it right the whole Well,

that was the problem. They didn't communicate that only the country was getting The phone was blowing up at two oh three with people saying, where the hell is this game? I tweeted, I said, anybody else infuriated anyway? Adam number three, sir, So I haven't bet it yet and so we don't have to count it for the pot. But like six and a half that I think turns into seven for the Buccaneers is way too high. Against the Vikings, and so like I'm looking at that one a lot closer

to three and a half. There's other ratings that will make that a lot closer, Like this is this is Buck's territory when they were favorite against the Panthers. This was Bucks with the price they were against the Broncos like that. I think that this is out of line. And I think the Vikings going to overtime and playing essentially a full extra ten minutes against the Jags looking as bad as they did, um is is sort of fueling this move that's going up a little bit. But

I'm waiting for this one to get the seven. I'll bet it when it gets there. If I have to buy it because it's not gonna move, I'm going to do that as well. But I think the Vikings getting points here um certainly worth a look. I think it's a terrific game for Zimmer and now he sets up like Brady under pressure. It's been a decline the last three years. It's very noticeable this year. Um And when you're facing a guy like Zimmer who's just so creative and and the game plans he puts together, how he

disguises his blitz is. I think it's just a perfect opportunity to him for just to have a sort of his best game plan of the year and sort of an all in spot for the Vikings. Do you want to attribute what they sort of made everyone sweat who had them and survivor last year last week potentially sort of a look ahead spot for them in this in this matchup. So for me, I think that this number is way out of line. I'm happy to wait it

out and see if it gets the seven. But if I have to buy it, I'll certainly buy the six and a half of the seven two out of three remaining survivor entries that had to sweat out Minnesota UH and the h and the Jaguars last week. Minnesota, really Dan Bailey missed two extraployers. He missed a field goal. That first Jacksonville touchdown literally bounced off the back of a Vikings defender. There was a pick six, like the

Vikings should have won that going away. Um. Just to add to that, UM, Mikey, since I've already done three, because I'm on your Atlanta Falcons is number three? What's your number three? I'm gonna play over Monday night in the Ravens Browns Game seven. I'm saying, over that's fine, it's okay, okay, look at that. But you know, I think Mayfield's improving. I think they move them around. They

can run the ball. Think about Baltimore is that their running game is dynamic, right, and they have these burst runs they don't take for a team that's a predominant running team. They don't have seventeen play drives, right, they have eight play drives and nine play so they don't choose the clock like a tradition running team would. Uh. And also interesting, when Jackson throws the ball, there's a lot of incompletion, so the clock stops. Right. There's the

very few short games for that team. They either hit they hit a play action play that goes for twenty. They bust a run for seventeen, so they moved the ball quickly. The Browns can run the football, which sets up Baker. Look, Tennessee last week said we're gonna pack everybody in the box that make Baker beat us, And that's what he did. I mean, they were guys were

running wide open because they had everybody up front. So there's a low total for the NFL forty seven relatively this year, and so I'm over they well thought out pick. I wish I had thought of that well, thank you, Lamar Jackson was so inaccurate the other day. It's harm I mean not even close. Yeah, Like at forty seven over from Mikey Baltimore in Cleveland, dot. Um from my last pick, I am going to go with the under in the Washington football team against the forty Niners. Um.

I the under I see as forty three? Is that what is correct? For three? I'm gonna go under. And the reason I'm gonna go under is I think Nick Mullins is not an NFL starting quarterback. Uh So, I'm not really too concerned about the Redskins scoring a lot against a Washington defense, by the way, quietly is a very good defense. Their fourth in the league in yards

per play. The Washington defense. Now, granted, the Steelers can't run the ball, but the Steelers do move the ball against most teams, and the Redskins were really giving them a lot of trouble. The Washington football team, I think is a very good defensive football team. I think they're in the top ten, I really do. It shouldn't be quiet because they've had so many high draft picks on defense, right, Chase Young and Darn Payne and Montez Sweat. Jonathan Ellen

wasn't even on the field against the Steelers. Karrogan is still an old veteran top pick. I mean, they are littered with top defensive draft choices. It would better be good by this point. Well, I just think it's a pretty darn good defense, and I think they're gonna be able to handle Nick Mullins, who I does not you know, impress me? Uh. For San Francisco. On the other hand, San Francisco's positives on their side of the ball is

defense as well. And it's not like Alex Smith to mckissic is gonna work as well as it did against the Steelers late in the game when they just saw, oh, here's the idea, let's just throw Tomkissic for six yards every single play. So uh, I have a feeling that the smart coaching staff for the Niners will cook up some defensive goo losh from Mr Alex Smith, and it's probably gonna be maybe seventeen points from him, twenty points from one of the other teams we're looking at. I

I just like under forty three in this. I think both team strengths are on defense, and while forty three is a low number in the National Football League nowadays, I could totally see this as both coaches just being super conservative. Let's just play, you know, ground and pound, and let's go under forty three. That's the other thing

thought about your Stiller's concern. The Skins did that with Washington Football team did that with Antonio Gibson getting turf toe with the first quarter, never came back and Terry McLaurin two catches for fourteen yards. He's by far their biggest playmaker, and Washington still beat them down fourteen. They had to kiss it and no one could guard the kissing.

For some reason, stealers didn't realize that if you run the exact same play over and over and over and it gets eight in nine yards every single play, that's probably not gonna win you a football game. It's weird being a Washington football team fan because the quarterback of the future is not on that roster, but there with Alex Smith. And I can't believe I'm saying this because I was only please don't get back on the field. I'm terrified for you that, like he's clearly the best

quarterback that they could have had. But Gil Alex Smith was a decent Let's call him a slightly above average quarterback when he was on Kansas City. Maybe I think he was better than that. Okay, so I was being conservative. Let's call him solidly above average quarterback when he was on Kansas City. Solidly he got Kapper nicked and he got Mahomes, right. I mean, that's that's his career, right. So, but what I'm saying is, why are we so surprised

that Alex Smith is No, We're not surprised. I just didn't want the guy to get out on the field because I was terrified for him. We're not surprised. But I guess what I'm saying is this is the best version of Washington that you may get until they find a guy, you know, whether in this draft or otherwise. I don't know what my point was. I thought he was good at Utah. He was the number one pick

in the draft, for goodness, very good at Utah. Remember he was he was the guy that was picked first, while Aaron Rodgers just sat there for twenty some picks and then sat there for another few years in Green Bay. True Dad. Alright, teaser, guys, our favorite two leg six point teaser of the week. You're allowed to use sides

or totals. Mr Churnoff, Well, I think I'm always sort of opposed to teasing down big the big numbers with big totals, But I think I absolutely have to bring Green Bay down below the six to four and the three, and then I think naturally pair that with um the Saints if they're at seven, bringing them down to one as well. So I would go, I would go Green Bay and the Saints. He's down, packers, chiefs, packers chiefs. Okay, Todd,

hang on stenographizing here. So we got minus one and a half for Green Bay for Mike and Kansas City. Where's Kansas City again? All Right, I'll just I'll just do I'm just gonna do the round robbin with these guys. New Orleans. Kansas City is actually mine, Okay, I'm gonna go with your Okay, New Orleans for gil New Orleans minus one in Kansas City minus one and a half, right, correct, Well it kind of looks kind of minus oneing now,

but yeah, minus one and a half. Okay, So I'm gonna go with um Green Bay minus one and a half as well, and um, just so that we're not all doing exactly the Saints be authentic, dude, what it was gonna be? Don't just makes all up? Well, I I didn't really do a good job with my teaser preparation today. It wasn't really positive. Who I wanted to get with the teaser question every week anyway, I just to do something different this week. I want to go

with the Browns plus eight. How about that Brown's plus eight? Yeah, okay, if Baltimore wins, that game looks like a five and oh very well possible five and oh finish for Baltimore a f C price is awfully I right now, Yeah, what is it? Eighteen to one? What is it? Before the Dallas game? It was eighteen. It's come down right

around fourteen to one now. But like you consider, if they if they get through Cleveland, like you said, that's probably they're running the table and finishing with eleven wins. They probably get the five seed. And then outside of k C, who are they more than a three point underdog at most within the a f C. I don't think anyone so Like from a Hedge perspective, if you want to go that way. You're probably working back against that once they get into playoffs, never really laying more

than one minus one forty against. That's a that's a big number. I gotta get it before this game though, before the clean because that's where the EU. But I don't think Baltimore. I mean, I understand from a price perspective, I agree with Adam, but from a are they the same Ravens. They're not the same Ravens. People have figured out Lamar Jackson. No no, no, no, no, no, Todd, I'm sorry to interrupt, Okay, but they figured out Greg Roman.

Greg Roman is a one hinted wonder. He had Kaepernick great for a year, second year, figured him out, Lamar Jackson great for a year, second year, figured him out. Doesn't know how to run the four. He's not creative enough. They should hire Kubiak. Kubiak would be a much better coordinator for the Ravens. I stand corrected by Michael Palm. I'm not going to argue with him about who is the person that we should be saying they figured out.

But if you want to stay it's Greg Roman. That's mine to the bottom line is Baltimore is not the same football ball team on offense. Regardless of who they figured out, they figured out something and it's just not the same team. The name Lamar Jackson has taken enough guff for one week. It doesn't need to be to

Lamar Jackson's. But I will say this about Baltimore and agree or disagree that they are I mean, I guess you could say this about a lot of teams in the history of the NFL, but they feel to me to be the poster child of this. If they get ahead, they are so much more dangerous than when they fall behind, Like there's a It just feels like game script for them is everything, because if they fall behind and they have to throw the football, you're like, they're they're I

feel great being on the other side. If they get ahead, let's just say a f C championship game, and they get ahead of the Chiefs, Hey you got a game, you know, in a in a way that you might not otherwise with some other team. I don't overstate it, but that's how it feels to me. Does that make any sense for the It's like the worst opponent for the Chiefs to face. Gommatically two if they fall behind as well, right, that's right. They're great from ahead. By

the way, you get aside from Kansas City. You can throw all the rest of the playoff teams in the a f C in one big jumble, and who knows who's gonna win any game Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Indianapolis versus Tennessee, Tennessee against the Browns can Miami. Maybe Miami's a slightly below the other ones, But the rest of them, if you just throw them all in a big bunch, who who the hell knows who's gonna be the right team. The a f C playoffs, though, seven deep is gonna

be awesome because those are seven teams. Yeah, if the Raiders don't get in there, for instance, But like the NFC, there's gonna be one or two or even three crap teams in there for sure, including the NFC East winner. Although I don't know if you want to play Washington now, which is crazy to say, I don't want to play that deep. Well, do you play with mckissic or without mckissic, because you can't stop him the MS By the way, it's a platoon between mckissic and Barber as Bryce sits

on the sidelines like let me. I want to play. No one can stop in the kissing. He's he's like Michael Jordan. You can only hope to contain him. Um, okay, what was your so? What was your teaser in the end? Cleveland? And who was Green Bay? Minus one and a half and I'm concerned about it because everyone likes it and Cleveland plus eight? Okay, so Survivor. Before we get to the final two questions, eighty nine entries left, eight two

of whom have Seattle available. Seattle is the biggest favorite on the board, close to a two touchdown favorite against the Jets. This is uh. I believe this is the last week where the quote unquote obvious pick is still available to most. After this week it will get Nutso. But this week the question becomes, do you just take the Seahawks and say, you know what, let's just forget about this week, will resume play next week? Or do you say to yourself because as I've said many times,

Survivor is a misnamed game. By the way, you you quoted a name one of our named one of the visa hosts. Because I know you're not allowed to say my name apparently on that show. But you said uh, I said, it's a misname game, right, it should be called winner, not survivor. Um, Gil, why isn't Mike allowed to say your name? Because I didn't know that he wasn't. But the other day he's on there and he's like another host on this network, said one of our hosts.

I couldn't say my name that the contest don't know what it is. But I don't, Mike, why aren't you allowed to say his name? Gil is making an assumption. Um, it might be wrong, it might be right, to be right. I don't know, but I don't say other host names. You know what I mean? I don't know. I don't bring up Donna, Danny Burke on their show. Wait this, this is across the board post. You don't say any host name. It has nothing to do with I don't

know if they know there are any other hosts. That's true. That's a good point. They may not be aware. They may not be aware. You say Lombardi's name, don't you? Yes, he does, I do, but he's on their show every week. Is a spinster. I'm a spinster. A spinster, Mikey. I'm not judging you in any way. I'm just trying to understand whose name you're allowed to say and whose name

you're not allowed. That's all I'm not allowed to say Todd W on one of the weekend shows that I was chance received that please do not say Todd W's name had finishing the thought. So the question becomes, do you just take Seattle and act like you know what will resume real survivor play next week? Or do you play to win? And first of all, if you have

two entries, maybe you definitely do this. But if you have one entry, do you have the cajones the onions to play another team and hope for a Seattle Seahawks calamity, at which point you will rise to the mountain test? You have to assess your belief in the Jets ability to win that game. Yes, that that's what it comes down to. Here's the question, let's do another over under how many of the two use Seattle. Well, that's kind of the question asking well, what do you think I

will do? My numbers? My number is seventy two and a half. I said, seventy five was the first number that came into my head. Not everyone will do it. Not ever, the five entries with two the five guys with two, Well, there's an argument, did you want to move both of them on because you have a big advantage for sure, or you take the shot. But I'm just glad that this is the last week where that's the chimp. Then there will be the picks are going

to be scattered the last three weeks. Absolutely, Um, did you like last thing? Did you like like my discussion? I don't know if you're aware of until I sent it to you, but Las Vegas, Chris and I had this ongoing debate and there's no right answer. What would you rather have right now? A circuit survivor entry that is still alive one of the last eighty nine, or be in contention in circummillions? Keep in mind, as you very well know, fifty places get cash and millions and

survive or is chop or zero? But to me, it's not even close. For you, it's it's survivor. I mean, it's the whole thing, the whole too, it's the whole experience you've had, right gil, and to get to and to get to this point, and let's face it, and I brought it up, uh you know, or or Todd brought it up. This picking five games against the number of Oh god, is this hard? I mean, this is really it's hard enough to find two games each week

or three that we try to do. So, I mean, even if I was in like tenth place, I would not feel any sort of confidence that I could maintain and not slip way down to only getting three thousand back? Or can I get a commitment from you? You may have already promised this is somebody else? Can I get a commitment from you that I get to interview the person who finishes last in millions first? Sure? Because you should get somebody first. I mean turn off? Oh yeah, right, yeah,

like that's the way it flows. Yeah, okay, right? Um? That say that is a that person is the most amazing person in all of this. How they could overcome even quarterlies to suck so consistently And you can't try to suck? Can you know? They have to? These people that have been at the bottom have been there since like week four and five. It's the same twenty people. But how can you, like, if you're if you're that good at sucking, why didn't you just try to win

the thing? True? But you you started out bad for three weeks and then you said let's just go against it was that. But the mirror is the guidance in first is forty five and fifteen, and the three way tie for last is fifteen and forty five. How many weeks is it, sorry, and twenty and on the opposite side it's twenty and forty five. But that's just that's just that's just a distribution issue. I always gonna be Pete. I agree with you, Todd, I agree to costco issue. No,

you have to. You're always going If you have a pool of people, there's gonna be people like, for instance, in my example of the bad beats, I am in the fifth standard deviation for bad beats, and there's somebody else who's in the fifth standard deviation for good beats. And that is always going to be the scenario. If you put a blanket over a large group of anything, there's always gonna be people on one side of the

standard beach and people on the other side. So those people soon like five of those people will go five and oh. This week, you know somebody will go five. And you can't guarantee that you'll stay bad, is what I'm saying. People went five and oh. But you see, if people went oh in five. But what I'm saying is the people, if you just take the people are in the worst, they'll probably be close to from here on out. That's all I'm trying to say. I agree,

I agree. These people don't have a special talent at sucking. It's amazing that they were able to suck as well as they have through through Quarterly's right, because if you're middling, every time a quarterly comes up, you're like, hey, I can I'm back to zero and zero. But they have managed somehow too over come good, you know, positive variants.

It's just like in a in a basketball game, if a team makes six three pointers in a row, you know they're going the point spread is gonna go up, but it still has to reflect the rest of the game. It doesn't mean they're going to continually hit the next six three pointers in a row. By the way, Mikey talking about flow, Mike, everything that comes out of easy mouth, you're like his mouth piece. Now on, now, come on, now, I don't know that that's accurate. It might it. I didn't.

As long as you're hurling takes some incoming while you're at it. I didn't go to a pack twelve school. I did not. You have to respect him for for what he's accomplished. All right, Final two questions, guys, Final two questions, Uh, the large favorite, most likely to lose? Outright, we will give you the candidates. The candidates are Tampa Bay six and a half point favorites, hosting Minnesota, Tennessee

seven and a half point favorites at Jacksonville. Not really sure how much home field means in any of this anymore, Kansas City seven and a half point favorites or seven somewhere in that pocket. Don't think it's seven and a half consensus produced us at Miami. Uh, Seattle, of course, the biggest favorite on the board, thirteen and a half point favorites hosting the Jets, Green Bay seven and a half point favorites at Detroit. Let's see what else, New Orleans.

Now it's six and a half as we did this podcast, it's down the six and a half point favorites at Philadelphia, toggling between the two. Those are your candidates of all of those, Adam, and I think you might have already hinted at who you would pick here. Who's the most likely to lose? Outright? Yeah, I think it's Tampa Bay. Part of me sort of went to Tennessee. But it's that's I think that the Titans look a lot better this week than then did last week. But I think

it's it's certainly Tampa Bay in this spot. I agree. I think they're the most vulnerable and they've shown the most regression that I want to see Tennis Tennessee. But because I didn't sing yet, I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. Mess with that team and their coach will be your ass. Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, they're going to the playoffs this year. Wow, well done crow barring it in before the end of the show. Well, if you don't crow bar it in, then people get mad.

They're like, where was the Miami Dolphins song? Most asked question of the podcast this year? All about Miami Dolphins songs from Todd You're mad at me? No, oh, I'm not mad at you. People love to hear him sing and they love the new thing will be the Pittsburgh accent. I think that's even better than the Dolphins. You're like, you're look if youns Ever went down and for Manny Brothers and had a giant mill. Let's say it was a Sunday you were in a Pirate game or at

a Penguin game, or maybe even a story game. You could have been in any of those kind of games, or maybe even Panthers. Youns love the college sports, that's all good too. Whatever it iss, are gonna want to watch sports in Pittsburgh. That's what we do here in pitt We love sports. What is where? What happens is that an r that that happens on No, it happens on els Like if I said I have you, you have to say, properly interesting, what's with the French fries

in the sandwiches? Who's the genius behind that? That's the greatest Pittsburgh thing ever well being is that I wasn't a typical unser and that I wasn't allowed to go to for Manny Brothers when I was a youngster because I was an Orthodox Jew and that and they didn't let me go to non Kosher restaurants in that so that was a big problem for me. I had to go to the goddamn kosher restaurant was just like horrible, And I would have loved to have a sandwich with

some French fries. One of the one of the saddest things. Todd not to be labored. This one of the saddest things you ever told. Man. You were sort of joking about it. Maybe you weren't choking, but I like wanted to cry after you told me this. The notion of you wearing the full Orthodox thing on a Saturday having to look through the store window to watch college football. Oh, this no, the saddest that that was the saddest ever. I was still talks. I was about seventeen. I was

going to Yeshiva University at the time. I was about seventeen or eighteen years old, and I was still Orthodors at the time, and I was a huge college basketball fan. And Pitt was playing Georgetown in a huge Saturday afternoon game. And so I walked over to like St. Nicholas, which it was like a huge Dominican street. And I was terrified, of course, because we were taught to be very very terrified of the other people. You know, they were going

to hurt us, you know, God forbid. So I walked over to St. Nicholas and I looked through the the window of the TV store where they had pit against Georgetown, and it was the game where there was a big fight at the end of the game. Do you remember that game? There was like a giant fight with like five seconds, like Jerome Lane and Charles Smith, and we had an Austin team pit against Georgetown, and you know

I had to watch it through the window. I mean it was a very very but but the biggest thing I'm really most upset about it, and this will be in my class action suit against my mother and all the other mothers in the community. I am Harry Barry upset that I didn't get to be the quarterback at alder Dicearts alma mater. And I was better than the kid who played quarterback. His name was tator On, a great kid. Used to play basketball and football with him all the time up in the j c C. I

was much better than him. He was the starting quarterback and I would have been the starting quarterback. Can you imagine my mother taking that opportunity away from me. She deserves to lose every asset she ever had in a class action suit child abuse. Where would you go live if she lost her house? That would be a problem, but I'm sure you would might be a problem. But I'm sure you would take in because you were a man of the you know, do you try to help

the poor and the wounded and anything like that. You know, you're a big believer in you know, whatever you do. Alright. The final question, because we're over time here seven minutes. Final question. If we lived in a bizarro world and we had to bet on a side on each and every one of the sixteen games. Remember no more buys. Everybody's playing starting tonight. But you were allowed one free pass one game you had to you could make fifteen.

You had to make fifteen bets. But there was one game on the side where you're like, you know what, this is the game I would not touch. Ever? What game would that be? Adam h The Dallas Cowboys because it looks so tempting to bet against the Bengals with Brandon Allen. They just look horrendous offensively, But how can you trust Dallas in any game the rest of the season. So I, even though that number looks a little short,

I just I couldn't do it. By the way, my pick for the big favorite most likely loser oute out right if anyone cares was Tampa Bay as well. Uh, Mike game I don't know what to make of that game. I just I, uh, I can't play the Bengals, and yet I can't play the Cowboys either. I what are you going to get out of either side? The Yeah, you know it's I tell you if you if you held a gun into my head, I'd probably take Cincinnati, but I'm not playing it. No one uses that phrase anymore.

Have you noticed everybody stopped at the same time come to the head thing? Yeah, socially because everyone's walking around strapped, But most people have nives, knives, ships, ships, Todd. Alright, Todd, what is your's your pick? I would probably go with the Cardinals against the Giants. I'm not sure what's happened to my boy, uh Kyler. He doesn't want to run anymore. That was what was making him so dynamic, his ability to run and also throw the football. So I'm a

little worried about that team. On the other side, I have the Giants who been playing well defensively, but Colt McCoy is still the quarterback. Who you know, he's a good game manager and all. But I'm not really sure what to make of this football game. So I'm gonna stay away. Uh It was a toss up for me between Cardinals Giants in Denver and Carolina. But I think it's Cardinals Giants. I don't I don't know if Kyler Murray is hurt or not, and so for that reason

might be heard. Also that's the other thing. Yeah, that's what we tell us. Adam is he hurt, He's got the shoulder issue, but he's I've never seen someone downplaying injuries consistently. He has, and he says the defenses have just figured out Kingsbury and they're making him hand the ball off. But that seems like a odd excuse that the Cardinals, with this offensive genius as the coordinator, would be able to figure out. But I think there's something

more to it. Yeah, I'd say that game because of that Arizona Giants. By the way, James Connor is back for your stillers. Todd just want to point that out for this game. Never think. I was never a big fan of his, and I don't think the running back, unless you're a superstar running back, the running back is not the key to the the offensive the run game. The key of the run game is the offensive line. If you can't open holes, it doesn't matter who you

have back there. Unless you have like Barry Sanders. If you don't have something like special, you can't run the ball. If you can't open holes, there are no holes. Would you say, Mike, I can't hear Mike, can't hear you. Mike. Oh, what did you say, Mike? Go ahead? Go ahead? No? No, what did you say? Nothing? Go ahead? Edited? Just just go Todd, what do you want to say? Nothing? I was just saying, if there's no holes to run through,

you can't run. So it doesn't matter if James Conner, whoever comes up, Franco Harris could come back, you can't run, all right, lend it on that anything to say, Mike, it was really nice to have Adam on. It was a terrific job, not just on the NFL but on a variety of sports. And you know, he's had a little bit of a tough season with a big bounce

back here. But people have to understand that this is there's gonna be ebbs and flows even for the best, the best in the world of doing this, and you have to be able to understand that and get yourself through it and not change the way um that you approach or manage your money or look at these games. That's right, Adam. You do a tremendous job with the podcast. When you named it, I was when you named it the Simple Handicap. There must have been a reason for

that title specifically, what was it um? It was actually a whole article series that I was doing, and I originally put it on like the Amazon Alexa devices. But the premise was it was going to be just a quick, concise podcast every morning that and it was it was just explaining the the easiest way for both of the teams to win or what their success was within the handicaps.

So it was the most simplistic handicap of each game which people could use because I think that sports betting media in general does like an unfortunate job of making everyone really overthink a lot of games. And so the premise was that it was just going to be a spot where you could listen every morning and sort of focus on the simplest handicap for each game. Love and

that sort of built into an article series in the podcast. Well, Adam, I had the idea that I was going to do maybe like a fifteen minute at night recap of like in game bets and stuff like that now it was too lazy to do it, of course, but um, have you found like success with that, like you know, getting people to you know, do your downloads every day like habitually kind of Yeah, they say it just becomes a part of their day or routine, and like it's it's

growing each day and every week. Not at a spectacular rate, but the retention from people has been really really good over the course of the last three seasons. So it's kind of become its own little community and it's pretty neat to see people hang onto it. At What time

of day is it available? Typically? Um? I posted every morning before six am Eastern, so pretty much anyone who's waking up and on their way to work gets the full report every single morning, just to sort of a little quick briefing to stay in touch with the markets. Just NFL, Just NFL. I'm always thought about doing something for basketball as well, but I've just always done it for an NFL. NFL is king, no matter how good the other sports are. It's amazing. I can do the

best baseball show in the history of mankind. Ceiling of listeners. We heard that one time and I wanted to do one. What's that and I wanted to do a baseball show and we were told, nobody gives, nobody cares. It's really true. If you if you whisper the word football, it's soars over over what you could. Don't know why they don't like college basketball because it's an amazing sport. And if you just watch I mean, it's ridiculous college basketball whatever.

You can start your college basketball podcast, then I know. But then I would have to work and do something, and you know, effort. It would be effort. You know, there is that effort in my life. And I'm on the downside. I'm a retired kind of guy. Adam, Adam, sure enough, everybody. Adam, thank you so much for doing this. Man. I appreciate it so much. Keep the good word goes

a ton of fun. I appreciate it again for the opportunity simple handicaps name of the podcast for Mike Palm, Thank you, Mikey, Thank you for having us at the d Thank you, thank you. Todd wishdev from the Cork Attic in Pittsburgh, p A appreciate it. Thank you all so much for listening. Good luck with all your Week four teen bets in the NFL. Survivor and beyond