Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 13 Preview

my Bahama breeze or whatever this is. Do you even let them know that you want them to, just that they see you and they just come back. There's there's eye contact and a recognition nonverbal. We gotta talk a bunch about survival. Todd Wishnev is up on the screen from his mother's cork addic somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with the Steel Stiller's logo behind him. Leven and O. Yes, that's in in honor of Wednesday afternoon, a National Football

League action which was tremendously interesting. Thankfully I was not on the regular point spread to see the end of that ridiculous NFL fixed line situation. But it went well for me because I had under Robert Griffin passing yards in the fandel in game props, which are just incredible. If you haven't moved to Pennsylvania yet, you might as well, because it's unbelievable. We don't need to list all our bets for actually that that backdoor quarterback did take a

great day for me into a very mid day. So I sympathize with people that can. I ask you a question, because you've you've spoken glowingly about these endgame props. What kind of limits do they take on these endgame props? You know, I just started getting into them, so I didn't even know they existed until a week or two ago. Um, So I don't. I don't know the answer to that. Um, you know you certainly he hasn't challenged the limits yet.

But well, that's what I'm saying. Well, they take a nickel on on these bets, and so you've answered, yeah, I mean they have so far. I think it also depends on what happens, and I'm sure there's all kind of high jinks involved in it, but the fact that so far it exists is nice. That's great. Thank you, Todd. Todd I'm gonna need more energy out of you today, need more in than this. It's a little seems like subdued Todd. Right now I want singing music, singing singing,

fight songs and that kind of thing. Later, Okay, yeah, just worried about you. Now he goes starting. Now he goes silent. The hair is much better this, I have to tell you that. By the way, I want to thank you. This is the most supported podcast episode in the history of podcasts. Behind in the control room over there, Dez Karina, ken Book, Jason Miles, incredible, everybody working on this episode. Everyone that works at Visa are rotating guests

kind enough to join us at the d today. I hope to get into a big Survivor discussion because this gentleman is a mult of a pole handicapping contest winner here in Las Vegas. Been on the podcast many times before, we just never had him in person. He's won the Wind Casino one hundred thousand dollars single survivor back in the day, the winner of the Palms NFL Challenge. Hey

remember the poems. Remember that was open uh winners stations fifty two thousand dollar last man standing in college football multiple playoff appearances and Golden Nugget contests, including first and second regular season finishes, multiple private eliminations resulting in fistical success. But here I mean station's NFL Last Man Standing contest had ninety six hundred plus entries. UH and UH. Las Vegas Chris had four of the remaining twenty live tickets

before his lucratively hedged knockout. When was that last year? Last year twenty nineteen one thousand in the one million pardon me? In the one million Dollar Circle millions appropriately named at two entries. Last year he finished twentieth and thirty one out of eighteen hundred and seventy five, and then this year in the top two percent of thirty one entries. Uh. Ladies and gentlemen, it's my buddy, Las Vegas Chris. How are you doing, man, I'm doing pretty well.

Happy to be here in person. I'm so glad this. You are the perfect guests. We were talking about this little before. I was like, let me just get through survivor long enough where I can have chriss on because you have thoughts on and we don't do with them. Now we can work up to it. Thoughts on what what you would have done on Thanksgiving circus one quirky

rule where it's like Thanksgiving us its own week. Um, because I'm curious how you would have played it, and we'll get into that and all the all these other sort of things you want to talk about. But you are more qualified than anybody. And of course the other thing that you do for people are like, oh, but what about a t S three hundred plus documented place since January and you're hitting in the NFL over six exactly exactly sixty. That's unbelievable. By the way, it's a

lot of places January. That's ti vo am. I worked by a M rump Off to do it. Yes, every day, all day, every day. I don't even sleep in the bedroom anymore. You sleep on the couch next to the computer. I go to the computer before I go to the in the morning. That's why I feel about not sleeping there. The better. She seems pretty happy. She's got the dog dog better than Chris Mikey. Uh. Survivor has been phenomenal. You couldn't have imagined it would be this great, could you?

Only Derek Stevens could have imagined it would be this great? And and where do we go from here, right, but let's just enjoy it. Um. Three weeks ago I made a bet with Paul Howard. I let him take whichever side he want. I made it one minus one six there would be an eighteen and oh or multiple eighteen and os plus one. There wouldn't he jumped at the wooden for Nickel. He's got plus one four. I think the question now is how many people go eighteen and all?

That should be the new thing. Give me a lot and I'd love I'd love Well. I have a number. Derek and I are going to debate it later on my guys in the desk. He thinks my number is ludicrous. U I'll tell you what my number is. I can tell you mine. It's twenty nine and a half. I was in the twenties two but not quite that high. Mitches is eleven and a half. I think that's low. Mine is twenty three and a half. Dave share Pan

put twenty four and a half out there. Yeah. I've heard some people a'm all Shaw who is one of the So there's one hundred and three entries left. Seven of them are have to one of which I am one. Um, I'm all Shaw who was in the one group as well. Uh. He was saying he thought it was gonna be like seventy some at the end shop and I'm like, no, dude, there's no way. He told me. But this was five weeks ago. He told me he thought fifty people would chop it. Yeah, so this was without all the information

we have. Not I'm sure he'll adjust the numb there's too many weeks left, yeah, too many weeks left. Is how do you know that there's so many people that have some teams available? Oh you think? Waitin how do you guys know that there's so many people left with available teams that are locks to win like you seem to It sounds from what you guys are saying like

people are going to make it through easily. So what I don't understand is how are you making that determination without knowing what all the hundred people have left on their team. We do, though, because circule out an availability matrix every week where you can see who has who left, and everybody who's in it now ought to have at least scripted out the rest of the way. But there's

always mind. It's always a mind, so you can't so you can't tell and you can see that there's tons of people with really good teams about just good teams, but that are playing there really bad teams that are playing the Jets Jackson. There's a whole bunch of people that you can see have favorable matchups. They have path paths to go the distance. You, Chris, you think this is a free pass week. I think it's a free pass week. Well, we'll get to this because I'm curious

why you think it's a free pass week. Everything scares me at this point. I'm terrified by everything you're playing out in your head, how every pick could lose that you're thinking about. Absolutely. Meanwhile, I'm I'm just shy of them all in that I've known who I'm picking every single week e'xcept for Thanksgiving. The entire time I said varied based on COVID though, and the possibility either a game was moved or the possibility a game could be of course, COVID is is. The COVID is as big

a factor as winning your game at this point. That's why when them all says he did it all on a plane flight back from Boston in two hours, and he's never spent more than five minutes on it. How could you not spend more than five minutes each week diagnosing the COVID. That's right, that's right. I think there might be a bit of an exaggeration. Let's let's start with the with the normal format, will work up the Survivor. So I'm actually talking about Survivor. But Todd records are

what we're kind of cush. Last week, you and uh Mikey both went one and two to even up your records at seventeen seventeen and two. I got crushed oh and three with my overs, and I am fifteen twenty and one in the teaser game, I am the leader at eight and four, and you guys both lost and have fallen to seven and five. The one that killed me last week was Kansas City because we had three in a hook here on the show, Like, how did that turn into a loss? Um? Okay, so those are

the records. Um, we don't have any Thursday Night football tonight because the Ravens and the Catboys got scuttled because of the Ravens and the Steelers. By the way, the biggest takeaway from that game yesterday that Bud Dupree injury. Man. I don't know, Todd, you're a Steelers guy. They're eleven and oh but they don't have Bud dupre Now. They can't run the football, so Big Ben had to chuck it around fifty one times just to beat a bad

Ravens team. In terms of who they had at starting quarterback, all the injuries they ended up having during the game, the Steelers, who they've beaten, doesn't look all that good. That's I mean. I called the Browns a paper tiger at eight and three, But I mean, who's who has

a more inflated record in the end. I wonder because the Steelers had to make If I had to make Kansas City against Pittsburgh and the a f C Championship game line, which even if it took place in Pittsburgh, I would make Kansas City in Pittsburgh, I would make Kansas City minus five. Todd wish. Now that's a little strike. That's too stiff, Tod, that's stiff. Maybe maybe three. Chris is already looking for a line of out to bet that. Alright, so what do we do best bets? We start with

best bets. We always start with our guest Las Vegas. Chris, your first best bet of the week, sir, Oh, this is the one thing I didn't work on. So I'm just gonna pick everything randomly. You guys do them in order. But my philosophy is to pretty much bet everything the same, and I want to bet the same across the board, and then I'll downgrade something for injuries or uh it

just smells rotten. Uh, you know, personal decisions. So but pretty much everything is the same, and no matter how good it looks on the metrics, Uh, I find it a longer and it doesn't make a difference. I'm having a tough time ranking my three too, so I get it. I think one of the things that I personally like is the Titans in Cleveland over. Um, God, whatever you got against the Brownies, I have as an over I have fifty three and a half. Yeah. I like that.

When you're talking about some you know, two teams with really crappy defenses. You've got the in my rankings defense in Tennessee and the twenty defense in Cleveland. And everybody knows Tennessee is a solid offensive team. I have them ranked five. Um and Cleveland, Ah, they've got some glamourus stats on offense that make them look better than they are.

I don't have them rated all that high offensively, um, but they do have three or three weather games in a row that you know, brought down their offensive stats obviously and actually improved those horrible defensive stats. Cleveland was down like in the thirty twenty nine range before the Weather games. But I just see that there that uh, there's a key injury on the Titan side, day Ron Brown.

They're key running a linebacker who would be good against Cleveland's number one rushing offense, and he's not gonna be there. So Cleveland should be able to move the ball, um, and they should be able to pass the ball too, And and is ridiculous as Baker look last week with some of his passes, Uh, he's not making the same mistakes he made last year. He had was it six turnovers last year? He only as eight this year, probably because he just can't throw the ball anywhere. But uh, alright,

I don't know what that was. So I I just see, And I don't think Tennessee is going to be as focused on this game. I think that they really came to play last week, that there's been two weeks in

a row where they've come to play. Uh, Indianapolis, UH is two games behind them now, UH for the division, Tennessee can kind of let up a little bit, even though we were talking about two identical teams for the a f C South lead though those teams eight and three, right, So, I just I don't see tend I just see a little bit of a of a drop off for Tennessee. Focus also, so I see mistakes, I see carelessness, I see bad defense, and and the over just looks good

to me. By the way, let me clarify Cleveland in the a f C North, but Tennessee with a one game lead over Indianapolis and the a f C South, both teams Cleveland Tennessee eight and three, both on the inside of the playoff race. Right now, Mike, I'm gonna go back to the scene of a crime, UH in Glendale, Arizona, where last time Todd and I were APO with him

on the Cardinals and me on the Bills. I'm gonna go back and play the Bills as a short favorite in Glendale and rich is really a game where they've played in this building this year in San Francisco has not, but is now assuming this is their home field because of the Santa Clara County restrictions. I I you know, I listened to Gil Gil Show talking about the decimation of injuries both on the defensive line, the quarterback, and how this is still a top team in the NFL,

top half, top half team in the NFL. You know, we got killed. We got killed on this game last week, and that everybody had San Francisco against the Rams. It was all one side of action and they were right. Shanahan with two weeks to prepare was excellent. They you know, they got it out, they got tied and still won that game. They've they've overachieved here. I just think this Bill's team, you really have to play well to beat him.

They're they're there are no easy out any week, and they get the experience of traveling again, they've already been in this building. I think they're the better team. This game is essentially a pick. I think Josh Allen has progressed. Let's not forget if there's not that halt yeah minus one. Let's not forget if there's not that hail mary uh. Last week there there are ten points ahead. There went in that game by ten at home and covering against

San Diego. Notwithstanding that the nonsense with Anthony Lynn on the goal line once they did catch it. So I'm gonna lay one here in a game that's a neutral sight game with the bill in real life? Would you just bet the money line here? I would? Okay, Yes, that's right. I want to imagine. Buffalo minus one is what we'll log in as Mikey's official pick. There. That's the second of two Monday night games with COVID postponement.

You always have to keep track of his. Washington Pittsburgh is a five pm Eastern two pm Pacific Monday night Monday afternoon ish at least on the Pacific time zone game, and then Buffalo San Francisco, which is at as Mikey said, in Glendale, the first of two consecutive games the Niners will play in Glendale, and by the way, a couple of weeks after that, they already have a game at Glendale against the Cardinals, so three out of four weeks

they'll play in Arizona, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Is the second of the two Monday night games, a fifteen eastern five Pacific number one from my first of all, this is this is a ridiculous week. I mean, most weeks you look at the anti fire like this is ridiculous to bet pregame, and uh, this just seems even harder than usual. I'm just gonna go with something. I'm going

with Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. I mean, I know all the struggles that New England has, and I know Herbert's good, and I could see the Chargers easily winning the game. But when it comes down to it, I got Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. When is that ever gonna happen in the rest of our lives, a coaching mismatch to that degree, Um, Patriots or minus one? I see or pick them. I'll say, We'll say even Pats minus one. I just have to win the football game.

Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynn. I don't know. I don't want to say anything else. That's it, Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynn. Give me the Pats. Okay, you got the Pats, which right now? What do you see? And Pats as one point minus one? Yeah, drifting towards a pick them the more we go on this week, the I'm gonna do two here because that's my number two pick as well. I'm on Bill Belichick in the and the Patriots. And

I'll just add to that. If we're just doing this on a blind you know, the blind comparison thing, and you see the Chargers personnel and the Patriots personnel, the Chargers should win this game every time as a pick up. But it is Belichick against Anthony Lynn. And this comes down to a self loathing thing. If I bet the Chargers and they lose, I hate myself. If I bet the Patriots and they lose, I can live with that every day. And you're right, we don't get this opportunity

very much. By the immutable laws of football, you must bet on Belichick against Lens. So that's my number too, picky sir. If you switch the coaches, Belichick is coaching the Chargers personnel and Lynn is coaching the Patriots. What's the number on this? It's a great point, a touchdown, it's a touchdown, might be a touchdown. Uh, it's so true, you know. I I tweeted something out on Sunday that that the NFL announcers as bad as they are or

more often correct than Lynn is, which is amazing. I mean, they miss everything, they miss everything. Yeah, there's a there's a writer in San Diego Sports columnist that has dubbed Anthony Lynn Rolex for his precisely clock man phenomenal. I asked the question for you because I almost lost two

bets last week on that game. At the end, if in the last play, had they run the quarterback sneak with their lineman actually running forward instead of running backward, and had gotten into the end zone, would they have had to kick the extra point? Because I know in the old days you did have to kick the extra point, but in the and then I heard that later there was a rule change that they don't have to kick

the extra point. What would have the story been at the end of that game, you go down to the two yard line and near the ball. No, no, no, no, it had no effect because they were losing by ten. I'm telling it was twenty seventeen. Had the Chargers gotten a touchdown on fourth down, it was three seconds left. If the last play the game would have him been dumping into the end zone three would they have come and kicked the extra point? Because I know in the old days you had to kick an extra point, you

had to do a final play. But then I think they changed the rule to make it like college where you don't do the extra point. Does anybody know what the actual rule is on that? Yeah, but I don't really know if I understand the question, why wouldn't they I bet money that they still have to do it, but they, Yeah, they do. I thought there was a rule change that in the NFL they stopped doing that last extra point. May be wrong, you're gonna have sworn. I saw Kyler Murray uhl remember that one. He just

came out and need the ball. But Todd, you're saying, but there were still time left. So you're saying if there's no time on the clock, that's what I'm talking about. There wasn't that Arizona game, otherwise they would That's correct, that's right. No, the Arizona game, there was time. There was, Yeah, because there was two seconds left. Because my my joke,

and it wasn't really a joke. I thought that Cliff Kingsbury was getting all this praise for being smart enough not to kick the extra point, risking a block and at two points the other way. I actually thought he think he thought it was a time down. Um. So yeah, um, but my first pick, I'm going with the Colts, and I know this is the worst of it by the time we did this show here Thursday morning, it's three and a hook, which obviously I don't like nearly as

much as I liked it earlier in the week. But I'm gonna stick with what my first reaction was on guessing lines. This was two and a half at the time or three in favor of the Colts. I do think this is the Bilow Cell high that Chrissie andrews Uh framed it as the other day after I said I liked Indianapolis. I think the Colts couldn't have looked worse in that game against the Titans. It was a

perfect matchup for Derrick Henry and the Titans. DeForest Buckner and a couple other defenders were out of that game. Buckner had was on the COVID reserve list, he couldn't play, and so the Titans were just ran rough shot. Derrick Henry had ridiculous amount of yards in the first half.

Um I give specifically how much, but it was well over a hundred yards in the first half of that ballgame, and so I just think you have to kind of threw row that game out as bad as the Colts were beaten there, and then On the other hand, Houston couldn't have looked better on Thanksgiving. They do have extra rest here, but that was a game where they had will Fuller. Will Fuller is Donzo with performance enhancing drug suspension for six weeks. They went ahead and they they

cut Kenny Stills before that. I don't think they could have known. Maybe maybe they did, maybe they didn't, But I just think Houston they can't run the football. Indianapolis is getting defenders back, very really solid defense. I don't know how Houston scores here rampantly in this game. I like Indianapolis. I'll even give the three in the hook, even though I wish it were a better number. You see three in hook, you see threes three in a hook, right,

it's three, Yeah, three and a half. I'm gonna do that's That's still my first pick, and then New England is my second. Mikey number two, Todd, I think, oh, no, Chris number two before Mikey goes. I've just looked up on the Google machine. NFL changes rule removes p A t s after game winning TVs at the end of regulation. They passed a rule in two thousand eighteen after the stefon Diggs touched on at the end of the Biking

Saints games. So I knew that there was some kind of rule, But that just says they don't have to kick it after a game winning TV on the last play, say happened? What was your point with that question? What? I don't understand what your point was with that question, though? What are you driving? My point is is that could have affected things. Let's say the Chargers get that touchdown right and now they're losing three. Do they have to kick the extra point to make it four? Or is

the game over? Because that could affect your in game bets or you know a million other things one would have affected. So you're saying the verdict is they have to or they don't have to. Well, I don't still don't know, because this says NFL changes rule removes p E t s after game winning t ds at the end of regulation. Now, this wouldn't have been a game winning TV. This would have just been a meaningless backdoor t D. So it doesn't whether the rules changed for

backdoor tds or just game winning TV. Game winning we know because if you remember the amazing Stefon Dig's miracle play here, they had to bring everybody back, scored a sixty one yard touchdown as time expired. That's when they passed the rule after that, because it was so ridiculous that they brought everybody out after the locker room. I believe, but I wouldn't bet on it. But I believe that Todd is correct that the rule has been changed to reflect college where if it does not factor into the

winning of the game, it's no longer kicked. I thought it was. That's what I thought it was. Someone and wait till somebody loses a bet on it if they but you can so. I almost lost two bets this week with that. Had they gotten that touchdown, I would have lost whatever. Anyways, And you just should know about it, because if you're betting in game lines, or even if you're betting regular game lines and you want to head yourself,

it's important to know. You know, let's say there's twenty one seconds left and there's you know what I mean, it could matter good point Chris number two. Sorry, Mike, I like your indie. Also, imagine how bad of a team Houston would be if they weren't all on p E d S. But I won't use that game though, let me come up with something else then. Um, um, I like uh, I like the Raiders a lot this week. Um, it's another you know, by low situation. That was a

really tough spot last week. They can't lay an egg twice in a you know, it was just a you know, coming off of a Kansas City game and losing in that fashion and traveling to the East and and and everybody and their grandmother on them. You know, they were just you know, kind of full of themselves probably and not as focused. Even Gruden made a coaching error in that game. I couldn't believe it. I forget what it was. But he did something silly. He's done some silly before. You.

Gruden did something silly and that surprised you. About the field goal against field goal, Yeah, is that what he loves? Kicking field goals. If he's down seven, he figures way nine scores were right back in it. No, he was. He was kicking a field goal on the five yard line, right He Also he also did something earlier in the year where it was like he could make the field goal to basically win the game, but it was like

a really low field goal. It went from him being a minus money line or if he went down to minus six. I mean, it was not a great risk reward analogy analyst. But I think, uh, what I also like about the Raiders is UH metrically, it's it's night and day versus the Jets. I think it's actually the number one UH metric difference between teams this week. Believe it or not. The Raiders aren't all that high on my list, so but and hardly the biggest spread. Yeah,

so Chris, you're taking Raiders minus nine. Um, No, I prefer the eighth that it is. He'd actually prefer the Actually, I see it nine all over the place, Gil, What do you see right there on the circuit board. It's all over the place form like seven and a half nine. So I would say it's either eight or eight and a half consensus. Okay, we'll give him at I don't I don't mind. I was just trying to give this definitely not nine fair decision. How much am I responsible

for in this? Oh so much? But and and and here's the little bonus. And it's a difference between a team like Kansas City and and UH and some of the other teams like Pittsburgh When the Raiders can go for the juggular. I think they like to take out their frustrations on other teams, and if they get the opportunity, they're not going to just go through the motions. They're gonna want to, you know, run free. They're gonna want to bully and run free in the pasture and and

get all their energy out. So that's one of the other reasons I kind like it. At least you know that, uh, this team will probably play hard to the end. I have to worry about that defense so that I have them rated thirty one, just above the Jets defense. So, uh, you know, potential problem, but uh, I'm millionaire risk it. They do. They do great radio. This is compared to San Francisco sports radio, where I lived most of my adult life. Local radio here in Vegas is quite good.

I think the quality of it is very good. And as somebody asked a question about the Raiders, they're like, we can We're already at the stage now where we can ask after they after they laid the egg against Atlanta Derek Carr with a pick six and three lost bumbles, They're like, three or four years ago, three or four years from now, who are we going to say, is the worst draft pick sugs Abram Feral Like you're already

going through that exercise, you know on defense. Uh, sugs obviously actually be not sugs rather rugs on offense, and your answers may vary. Number two same, Yeah, I haven't haven't written down from before the chosen a different No, that's it's okay. We just can't get three people. If three people as I don't think things couldn't have gone worse for I don't want to go long into this.

Things couldn't have gone worse for him last week. Um, I think they can get I think that's one of those games you just throw out, you get it out of your mind. I mean, I made this number ten and a half, so I think there's value here in eight. Um. I know it's probably gonna get to ten. I mean that's the way it's. It's trending. But they did this last year when they were six and four, they got beat by the Jets three. They Yeah, in New York. They're still in the playoff hunt. It's an important game

for them, the Jets. I understand your concerns about the Raids. The Raiders are a poor defense, but the Darnald couldn't even they couldn't take advantage of Miami last week at home either. They couldn't put points on the board. So that's my number two. Can I just did you see the Jets Dolphins game? By any chance, if you watch that game, I was scared the whole game exactly. This is my point. The Dolphins were no slam dunk. There was a play in the first half, the catch, where

DeVante Parker caught a pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick. It was clearly, by today's standards, not a catch, and they called it a catch on the field. Adam Gaze throws the challenge flag. It survived replay, Like he said, they must not have the technology, it must be broken. And that led to the dolphins first go ahead touchdown. And you look, I'm not saying the Jets would have one. Probably wouldn't have, but you never know when something like that happens, you

never know what could have been. I'd like to make one comment, and this is not sour grapes. I've actually benefited from from all these horrible, horrible calls. But the standard of calls in the National Football League is atrocious and it's it's amazing how miraculously all these teams get back into these games. And you have to factor it's it's a minor factor, believe it or not. Uh, you have to figure out how gameflow might potentially go. And I honestly fully expect and that the refs are gonna

help me out when I'm behind. That's Chris. We've been talking about it for the NFL is either telling the refs listen. We don't want the televisions to go off. So when somebody's ahead by fourteen points, make a you know, strategic holden call. Every once in a while, make a strategic, you know what, illegal hands to the face call. There's definitely something going on now me and you can't prove it, Chris. But we've only watched a thousand games and we've seen

this over and over and over. So don't tell me something's not going on. Something is going on. And that's why a d game. By the way, the bookies aren't stupid. They make the line that the other team is coming back every single time now because they know what's coming. You're a thousand percent right, Todd, You're exactly. I started looking at in game bedding trying to think if I

could get an edge on it. They haven't already factored in the lines are way too short for these comebacks, and and and that Phil Aladelphia, are you kidding me? But but there was also bad spots. The you know, he wasn't even close to the first down mark. He was just watch Mountain West College football. And the guys they actually called when I was gonna, I told Gil about this. They called the answer to the play wasn't even a possibility. One possibility was either a catch, one

possibility was an interception. Incomplete was not a possibility because the ball never touched the ground. They called what incomplete? It was unbelievable. The ball was the ball had never even came close to touching the ground. It was there's only one possibility. One team got it or the other

team got it. The random giving of the first down when somebody against nine yards instead of the guy is walking in the ball and he's a yard short of the stick and he's telling them to move the stick behind the college football it's an epidemic because no one complains, They just let it just keep going. In Oregon State Washington game I lost because of fourth and one. The guy was so clearly over the line. It was ridiculous and they called nope, nope, sorry, we gotta come and

do a measure. The zig zag spotting is we'll just drive you did you see you see the end of Oregon State Oregon like Friday night after Thanksgiving? Oh my god, they missed the off sides. They missed him getting in on second do they missed him getting in on second day and thank god Oregon State scored on four. Would have been one of the worst robberies. Brad Allen was also terrible on Monday night with the clock. You know this handicap because I'm betting end game totals, so I

couldn't bet end game undernoing. He wasn't winding the clock correctly. He does this all the time. They have a running play, there's offensive holding, it's a running clock. They accept that. They moved it back ten yards as soon as they spotted the ball on that hash, she's supposed to wind. He waited till the team was at the line and it would be only two seconds run off of the They should have got twelve seconds off. The whole last drive shouldn't have happened. He had. He never ran off.

You're you're a pent right. They screw it up. By the way, how about yesterday when when I knew what was gonna happen. My mom and me were watching the Steeler game, and I'm like, Okay, here's what's gonna happen. The Ravens are gonna run the ball and then it's gonna be a fire drill because they don't have any time outs left and they're gonna have to come to the line. The Steelers are gonna be laying on top of them, trying not to let them get the playoffs.

It's exactly what happened. It was unbelievable. They go into and they didn't call anything. And by the way, I was so happy because I had Ravens under team total fourteen and a half. But it was really unfair to the Ravens. I mean what you could see what they're doing. They're laying on top of them intentionally, by the way, I hit the first half under because of that, just

laying on top of them. Just unbelievable delay and and John Harpo screaming his head off and they're like, I'm sorry, sorry, trapped on the court and they just kill They do the same thing with the with the with the you know how they do when the guy stands in because this team got to replace their players and the other team gets to replace their players because they did substitutions

in the their team gets to do substitutions. And they have that one ref who stands over the ball and waits while the play clock is going down and down and down, and and the quarterbacks like, what are we gonna do? We're gonna get a delay a game because it's stupid fat guys running off the field, the nose tackle. It's like the refereeing is just it's beyond beyond. So Chris, you've opened a can of worms and it was a good game. Good, which is alright, Todd. Number two, my

number two is going to be your Detroit Lions. And the reason I'm going to take your Detroit Lions is because I have one team with a quarterback and I have another team without a quarterback. Now, we've seen in the National Football League this past week where a lot of people don't know this, but the analytics say, if you don't have a quarterback, you probably can't win the game.

That's what the analytics say. Most people thought with hint, and they could probably win the game at wake Forest quarterback, but no, it turns out the analytics say, if you don't have a quarterback, you may not be able to win the game. That's sort of what happened to the Ravens. Also yesterday, r G three was not exactly a quarterback. How did you get a hamstring injury, then not have a hamstring injury, then have a handsty Every every Washington

fan watched that. By the way, what a glorious year was. We love RG three for life. But after his injuries, that kind of ship happened all the time. Pardon my French, right like it would be he would fall on his face, he told so you Actually, when he had to hand me, I was like, oh, he's done. Oh he came back to the next play. And then that's the one that put him out when he dropped back in his leg kind of gave out. Was the weird. It's like, he's

just old, get him out of there. I love himself. Anyways, it turns out having a quarterback maybe part of an important part of the football game. So the Troy Lions, I get a quarterback. The Chicago Bears, I'm not really sure I have a quarterback there, So I'll take the team with the quarterback plus the three. So give me the lines. Okay. I listened to the Lions podcast this morning about one of the beat writers and he expects

uh some so the attitude change it. He says, the whole locker room is much more carefree and and and breathing easily. And he commented that the stafford just looks so much more relaxed. The whole key on that game is gonna be uh and swift. That's why. That's why I said, because you don't know who's playing, you don't have goladays In or swift or I also agree with what Chris is saying. I read a whole article about

Darryl Bevil. They're all excited now because Darryl Bevil is the coach and now we got rid of the evil Darth Darth Vader Patricia and everything. So you know, I'm getting three points and the other team doesn't really have a quarterback might get Matt Patricia's final record in Detroit twenty nine and one. Jim Caldwells before him was thirty six and twenty eight. G M. Bob Quinn also fired his mark under his tenure over five seasons, twelve games

under five? Is that good? Should bring back Wayne Fons. Wayne Fons was the greatest Portuguese head coach in the history of the NFL. I don't know he didn't get him to an NFC championship. Isn't the the outfits still involved there in Detroit? They can't get funds back in. I was at the NFC Championship where nothing to a mediocre red Yeah, only Aaron Shots is greatest team of all time. Three. I was in RFK Stadium, Theater of Thrills, Theater of thrills, Chris number three? Your last one? Did

you do? I did two at once. Yeah. Uh, I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go against everybody else and go with the New Orleans Saints. Oh going against the market, Yeah, I'm going I'm going against the market. Going against the market doesn't scare me too often. Although I lost last week, uh the Colts, But that was COVID uh injury related. But what number do you have guilt for that game? Because I have it all over the place. I have three reduced juice two and a half extra juice two

and a half minus twenty. Yeah, we'll give him the two and it doesn't matter. But I like the you know, the Saints are coming off that you know quote, you know, lackluster performance against Denver, but hey, that was their strategy, was that their strategy was don't mess it up. Don't mess it up. Let's be all vanilla. I watched uh Hill in the first half of the previous game and I said, boy, this guy is just awful. You know, I tweeted it out. I go, this guy, this, this

guy is not gonna make it. And uh he straightened up, he got comfortably at a monster second half and they did well, um, amazingly enough. I chart every week of the season with Green or Brown on on how a trend, how a team trends performance wise. I have one downgrade the entire season for the Saints somehow, some way, Wow, they improve every single week getting players yeah and so.

And when you really look at the Saints the entire season, they played without Breeze, or they played without Thomas, or they played without Kamara. So they're always missing somebody and they're getting better and and I have them ranked like the number sixth team offensively. They almost have it set up that when Breeze does come back, it'll be the well rested Drew Brees right, it will be like a

great thing at that moment for him. I I you know, and then we're talking about another situation where you're buying high you know Atlanta, you know Rommed and and you know what, Atlanta is not garbage. They're they're rated. Uh, they've done very well since the coaching change. I have them rated in the middle of the pack, probably fifteen sixte believe it or not, which is higher than what

I think a lot of people would think they are. Uh, they're doing the same thing they did last season, and they're in they're ending well, they liked this coach, they're playing hard. Uh, they get bit by the injury bug and they're probably and they're gonna get everybody back, or at he's gonna be back for his mediocrity and uh Ridley's supposed to be an a limited snap count and

uh um uh what receiver forgot his name? Julio Jones? Yeah, uh, you know, you know he's going to probably play until he gets, you know, touched, and then he'll be out again. So ah, but their defense is better, Chris, have you noticed that Atlanta's defense has gotten a lot better as the season has gone along. I don't know if you've noticed or if you if you think that's the case,

but I think their defense has gotten better. No, it is pretty good and uh um, and that's how they have such a you know, a decent rating for me, I'm looking it up on my sheet right now. Yeah, Atlanta I have is uh like the number fourteen or my eyes are out of focus, was like number fourteen defense. Fifteen defense. You'd never you know, associated Atlanta with a good defense, and you know, I believe it or not.

Offensively they're worse usually each other way around. So that's what I right, I said, I said to Gil, I said, Maddie boiling hot water. I don't call him Maddie anymore. I call him Maddie boiling hot water because he is not that good anymore. It's it's Atlanta is like switching their thing. They used to be an offensive team with no defense. Now they're becoming more of a defensive team with no offense. There's a couple of teams like that.

By the way, Seattle's defense, which we've been planning all year quietly getting better as well, exactly right now and then just to finish. New Orleans defense has been just a monster these past uh past weeks. And then that's probably why the they metrical metrically keep on getting stronger on my charts, is that defense has been the best by far over the last six or seven weeks. Okay, New Orleans picked number three, Mikey, Mike Pale, I'm gonna go Colts over in this game that you picked the

Colts with the Texans. Yeah, this was an under team to start the year, the Colts, and now we've seen in both games with tennessee a ton of a ton of points on the board. Obviously, the Texans are talented and the Sean without a rinning game is gonna have to throw the ball a heck of a lot, So I don't see the clock stopping a lot in this game. Philip Rivers is usually good for two touchdowns and one or two picks, which inevitably leads to points on both sides.

I really thought this game would be closer to fifty three and a half or fifty four. I think there's some value with fifty one, and that's where I'm gonna land. I mean, I have written down here Bills Bill's minus one I just think that Nick Mullins is you know, he might have you know, played his greatest game as a forty nine er last week. And you know, the forty niners. On defense, they still come to play. But

offensively they are very, very very challenged. I mean, they they really don't have a lot with this nick with Nick Mullins, and I don't I'm not a big fan of their offensive And of course the coach is fantastic, don't get me wrong, and he did everything he had to do to get them that w after almost gave away the game on the fumble touchdown. And uh, you know, I just think the Bills. The Bills are a solid football team. You know, they come, they come to play

every week. Offensively, I haven't been as impressed with their defense. Um, although it seems to be improving a little bit. They played real well in the first half last week against the Chargers. UM, I don't see why the Bills can't stomp on Nick Mullins and then just do their regular, you know, offensive normalcy against a pretty decent San Francisco team.

All I have to do is win the game. Give me the Bills minus one, all right, the Bill, The Bills get back Milano, the key linebacker on that team too, the h Todd. What do you got for the Green Bay Packers? What's that number? I have? Eight and a half? Nine, eight and a half nine? Yeah, um, all right, I have to say a half. Okay, eight and a half it is Listen. I don't want to make a deal.

I don't want to. I don't wanna, you know, as a regular thing, lay eight and a half in games, but I'm gonna lay the eight and a half here with the Green Bay Packers. I just the Eagles. I said on Primetime Action with Matt Brown the other night when he was picking Philadelphia in the in the Cleveland game, and he's like, oh, they're getting all these players back. And I'm not picking on that because I was with him, but I did say to him before that game was

Cleveland beats Philly. Here, can we just annoint Philadelphia as the team we should never ever bet again, because they they will, they stink, they will disappoint you within a drive. You're like, I can't believe I've been on this team green Bay that game against Chicago, and I know it with Chicago. But Aaron Rodgers is in complete control of everything. Happening. Even Chris collins Worth during that broadcast was like, I don't know how he knew, Like Rogers was calling out Zoro,

He's calling out things on the defense. Even Chris collins was like, I have no idea how he was able to tell that that was gonna happen. But whatever it was, it happened. Uh. I'll take Aaron Rodgers here and give the eight and a half, no problem. The weather should be good. It's not a weather game. Um. But I think Philly's the worst team in the NFC East, I really do. I think Washington has a better defense than the Giants. Have played a lot of close games this year.

Dallas without Deck Maybe I don't know, maybe I stepped a little to it. But Carson Wentz just like r G three. The Carson Wentz RG three comparison for me is they were both so good before injuries. After their injuries, not only were they physically limited, but something happened to their mechanics and there their fundamentals. And Carson Wentz holds the ball way too long. When he's not holding the ball,

his offensive line is letting him down. They're not gonna put Jalen Hurts in because Carson Wentz has this horribly egregious contract. So they're gonna shove Carson Wentz down our throats for at least another year. Jalen Hurt stinks too.

Who how do we know Jalen Hurts a good We don't They overdrafted him a green Bay minus a leave it at you saw they put Jalen Hurts and there was a penalty, and then on second down he completed a pass I like a six yard out and then they put third down specialist Carson Wentz back, who was three for his last But what what was that? Well, again, it gets back to his his his contract structure. I mean, since you asked, I don't know if on a board people with this, but his contract is such that they

can't do anything with him. By the way he is lasting interceptions last and fumbles, last in sacks now with forty six, last in completion percentage, second of last yards per attempt, worst off target percentage, on and on and on and on. But the deal is they had minus

four yards in the first quarter. Uh in that game against Seattle, they went three and out on their first five drives, didn't get a first down until Wentz ran for twenty yards with five minutes left in the first half, ten fumbles, forty six sacks, the most in the NFL by eleven. By the way, but here's the deal. Thirty four point six seven million cap hit next year seventy five million cap decreased because of financial losses from the pandemic. You can't cut him until after next year, and so

you won't get much channing yards. By the way, Also, if you're doing a lot of in game betting, you should know Carson Wentz is approaching j Cutler esque status. Yea for one of the greatest back door touchdown guys of all time. This week I thought he wasn't good to get it, and he even got it this week on ridiculous Hail Mary. But it seems like fourth quarter under five minutes to go down by more than two touchdowns.

Carson Wentz is your boy. Jay Cutler used to do it and put up all the numbers and you had to play those in games. Uh, same thing with the Eagles. No excellence, no excuse for people who had the Seahawks

minus six and a half pre flop. But what about the people who had the Seahawks minus six and a half after getting to see the Eagles for a quarter and a half, I have simply I have sympathy for those people because and then how about the people are screaming, why is Doug Peterson going for two after he scores a touchdown down fourteen? Because he always does. We've been through this um billion times. The math shows you have a better chance. Now. If you don't believe me, go

to Google. Look it up. If you u understand the math, then just retire from life and retire from gambling too, because if you don't understand the math, you shouldn't be gambling. Look at your web gambling. It's looking to the right. It's very disconcerting. Look at your webcam, so I mean, we're see you looking off to the right. Who are you preaching to to the imaginary people that don't understand math here in the United States of America? And there

are a lot of them. They're right there over there. You don't see them right there. There's thousands, millions of them who don't understand basic math. Math is hard, but Christmas even harder. You know what, don't you know? It's it's funny that you said that, Chris, because I can't tell you how many people who just regular people you try to explain the concept of the point spread to

and they can't really grasp it right away. And you're just like you seriously don't understand what minus five and a half means, Like I you just it's that hard for you, Like You're right, math, people just can't get math. And it's why are you know the world is the way it is Because if you can't understand ratios, you can't understand life. That's the problem with the world. Wait till baseball season and you blow people's minds with money. Lines really loses that really makes them lose their crap

on that. That's really a two. I'm going nuts with the soccer learning the half three point two five, three points point seven five, and then then you've got the three ways. I mean, it's it's glorious. It's glorious. Let's do the teasers so we can get to the survivor

the final two questions. Favorite teaser to like Teaser of the week, Chris, I am going to call an audible because and hopefully this will be have some benefit because I the only teasers I like involve road teams and uh as everybody should know you should not be teasing

road teams road favorites down. Um, so I obviously love the Raiders and I don't like anything else, so U, but I wanted to look something up because I was thinking a lot of people do these three team teasers hard one, so I wanted to take a look at it. And by coincidence, this week is the perfect week to show this example. Um, you know, a popular idea is taking these ten point favorites down to pick them, and you for that, you're going to pretty much lay one thirty.

So but let's look at the situation. If you laid Miami, which is the eleven and a half, and you laid Minnesota, which is minus ten and a half. And when I looked at uh and when you and you look at the Green Bay minus nine, if you just parlay those, you get the pick, you get extra you get extra points,

and you lay lower Juice minus one. So I thought people might appreciate if you're considering, if you're one of those three team teaser people that like to do those, take a look at these any lines and and and and and just flinched them in and see what your money lines are gonna pay. You'll pay, you'll pay pennies less and you'll get a few extra points in the process. And on that same three team parlay, if you wanted to just throw in Kansas City, now you're laying even

money there, you go Seattle. Seattle's minus ten to. Yeah, it wasn't on the board for me to uh to actually plot it in so but it would be very careful. I don't remember a week, and I might be prisoner of the moment. I don't remember a week where we've had eight out of fifteen games with such massive spreads, but that that's what's gonna make the survivor and the which team is the most likely to let you down. A discussion coming up based on what Chris was just saying.

What I've had a lot of fun with is DraftKings has alternate lines that you can are laid together so you can actually create your own custom made teaser. So for instance, on most teasers you have to pick seven points or six and a half points or ten points like on the super teaser that Chris was just talking about. If you go if on DraftKings, what you can do is you can make like let's say you need on one team you want to you want to move the line eight and a half, so just go to the

alternate line and pick that one. And then on another team, you only want to do four and a half or seven and a half or whatever it is to get you over the key numbers, and then you parlay them all together you create what what basically an effect is a custom made teaser, which is really a lot of fun. Yeah, that was one thing I was going to mention. Also is rather than looking at teasers, I don't tease often. I think I tease once every three weeks or so two or three weeks. But what I do like to

do is look at the alternate line. I would much rather kind of go against myself and and and and basically sell back points and get some really nice plus money on those propositions. So I'd rather do that than deal with the teasers. So it's just something to look at. And and you can find UH an app that you're familiar with promoting, and many other are smaller shops. They just put these alternate lines out in the morning and they never move them. You know, they've got they put

such low limits on it. You're only getting at three hundred dollars on these things. Uh you know, generally, but a lot of these small books will just leave those. Check those in the last thirty minutes, the last five minutes before a game start, and you can find some real value. There. Were you referring to the Manscape tapp or something else? No, no, no kidding, okay, uh no, I I appreciate it. Again. The Stanford Wong teasers, the

ones that Chris alluded to the very first part. Again, the historically solid teaser legs in terms of the six pointers. Are these short dogs teased up through the three and the seven, and the home a favorite above a seventies down through the seven or three. This is a weird home road year though. Uh So, it's a little quirky this year. But h I appreciate the thank you for the three team ten point versus money line par lay analysis on that. People should know that who like the

three team ten pointers? Mikey, your favorite two leg teaser picked the Packer, tease him down to two and a half, and then I'm going to take the Lions up to nine, okay, Todd green Bay minus he's saying green Bay minus, tune and the Lions He's going to nine, okay. So I am going with the Lions up to nine because of the same reason that I talked about in the In the regular game, also, when your Bears team, it's hard

to win a game, let alone win by nine. That would be very difficult for an offensively challenged football team. So I'll take Detroit plus the nine, and I will take the Raiders down to minus two. Um. By the way, I think Jon Gruden has done a very good job this year. I just don't like his decision making on fourth and one at the thirty three yard line. That's the only problem I have with him. Otherwise, I think he's really done an excellent job. So I'll take the

Raiders minus too. By the way, I think we round robin our teaser legs Almo, Green Bay and the Raiders, even though the Raiders again fit you know, don't fit the bill with the routine, but those are my two. Green Bay down to two and a half, Raiders down to basically have to beat the Jets. I think one of the other things you need to look at with teasers is you either get in at the beginning of the week or you get in at the end of the week. Uh, you have to have some sort of

teaser anticipation. Um, if you if you don't know where lines are gonna go, now you're already potentially losing value that you don't even realize you're gonna lose because you can pretty much tell where a lot of the lines are going to be going. So you know, sometimes you're gonna want to wait till the end of the week.

And uh, you know, I've got a friend that's dying for them for New England and become favored by one and a half so he can have the seven and a half charger and he's gonna go ballistic on that. So just an example, we've all had those moments. If that would just check up, a half boy would do this. All right, So we've got the final two questions, and the first question will double as the survivor discussion. So I to the other question first. We'll finish with Okay, yeah,

all right. So the other one is if we're in a bizarro world and we had to bet every one of these games, you were forced to bet aside and every one of those games, but you wanted one free pass, what's the game you want? No part of Chris, I don't know why. I just don't want my metrics come out at exactly and a half of the Packers and in these Eagles are such pieces of crap and have underperformed. I'm just fearful someday they're going to show up or and and I and I have the bad memories of

how poorly the Packers did against Jacksonville. H Packers have a history of slipping up sometimes, you know, all teams do. But in my personal head, it's just I don't want anything to do with it. Mikey, I don't want any part of the Patriots Chargers game because I just think the Chargers are such so much more talented, really are, But this coaching, it's just hard to pull the trigger with Anthony Lynn. So and I just I can't back to Patriots either because they're just not as good as

a team. But that that doesn't mean they can't win this game, So I can't it. Here's a question. Is this the first coach where you you literally see every game is two to three points off just because of the coaching. And I mean that, sir, how Chris? How can he not learn anything from week to week? Right, You're allowed to make a mistake, You're allowed to make two. Maybe he repeats him, but how how can you not learn anything? He takes the time out at the end

of the half so he can't throw it. I talked about that one too, talking about oh my god. The run though might have been the Kuda girl. I still think that handoff against the Bucks was the Hall of Famer. R G three couldn't do that, couldn't do the read option. He's been so far, and then they want to do a read option from the six yard line when they could have knelt down. They listen. There's no bad talking RG three on this. I'm just saying it's not an

easy play. With the quarterback pulling it out of the belly, there's a high risk. There's r G three with a fumble on that one. Um Todd Well, it's the crowbar portion of the pro grammed. We're not gonna want to touch the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. If I don't sing this song, they get mad. The Miami Dolphins. They're getting better every week, but I don't want to lay eleven n F. You know, if I if I wasn't winning with them every week, i'd hate that song. That's actually

a pretty good pick. That was my number two, but Detroit Chicago is my first, just because if it's no Gola Day, he really means a lot to that team. If they don't have him, let alone the other guys, that's not a good football team. If they have him, it's a totally different story. So I want no part of that. Currently, on the Thursday, the Bears are playing hinting at quarterback Kendall hinting one for nine. All right, let's talk survivor before we get so, let's just do

it this way. Let's go back to Thanksgiving first, Chris, what would you have done were you in a circus Survivor? For those who don't know, hopefully this reflects your Survivor pull at home. But Circus Cork this year, Mikey was Thanksgiving Day was its own week. It really was a great herd thinner. Now, had you known that the third game was going to get postponed, you probably wouldn't have done. We wouldn't have We thought you had six teams to

choose from, not four. Would you do it again next year? What happens? Gil? If we get five thousand entries, we gotta make this harder to get through. We might have to put another wrink all day, right, must pick a prime time game I don't know it, or have tiebreakers at the end, and kind of like tear the payouts would a tiebreaker be though? Well, I still liked the total point differential level the eighteen winners you picked, Dude,

I would lose. I would lose every time. I would lose every tiebreaker this year because I've had so many miracle wins. I've had like five. The one you referred to green Baby Jacksonville would be one of them. What would you have done? On face? And now we don't know who you would have played already, and we don't know what you would have still had to play, But at least Thanksgiving, you, like most of us, would have planned to have at least five of the six teams,

if not all six teams still in your quiver. I will say this. The only people I say this on a numbers game at Visa earlier this week. The only people that I feel truly sorry for this year in Circus survivals, the people who had strategically saved Pittsburgh. Those people really did get the worst of it. Like that's a tough way because if and I know and people are like, well, you got through picking Houston. Yeah, but

those and those people picked the wrong team. If they didn't get through, they maybe they picked Dallas, but that sucks because they had planned on it. It's horrible. I have remorse that I didn't enter for the you know, for the third time, because if I had known four people were gonna lose week, one would have to have been lost on the courts. I was one of my

entries as well. And uh I did tweet out a warning the week before Thanksgiving, don't use your Dallas, minister, or don't use your Minnesota because I have Dallas better team. They were all very well, may win, and they did win. But Thursday was pretty It was only you had to look at it. It was not a handicapping week. You were wasting your time handicapping. You had to figure out where your best value was to win. You you have to decide am I playing your survivor or I may

playing to win? How many times you heard me say that it's a misnamed game, right, so you know you have to play to win. Okay, And for example, last week I was piste or I would have been pissed if the Saints game had gone off the board. I don't want the half a point. I I want to play to be able to win a full point. That's aggressive. If you had more than one pick, why would you sacrifice one. You are sacrificing an opportunity to become powerful.

So let's let's and let me just stop you right there. So there was if you had a multiple picks, and different people or groups did some had to, some had three entries left. You could do the most aggressive thing, which has put all your entries on one team. You could do the least aggressive things. These are just your options.

I'm not saying which is best. You could do the least aggressive thing, which is to sacrifice and play the different side of one game, meaning sacrifice a you know, a Dallas versus a Washington and ensure that the other one will get through for three entry players. You could do it two and one. Whatever you want to do.

But the hybrid play, which I think is what you're getting at here we'll see the hybrid play, which is not the most aggressive or the least aggressive, was take my two entries and play one team in one game and one team in another game. Yes, you had to, I mean, you know, obviously if you really absolutely loved one of those teams. All Right, you go out with

that team. I mean, you know the heartache of I wanted to take this team, and I really love that I handicapped it well and I've got you know, you know, mathematical foundation for this and metrics and i have insight information. Okay, yeah, you take that team. But my perspective was it was just a math equation. Uh and and it's really simple, how do you want to advance and how will you be most powerful? You're talking about? Uh? Like with the

Washington Dallas game, it's a coin flip. It was absolutely a coin flip game. You could have gotten. You know, it wasn't even you know, it was minus two, which is essentially a coin flip. So you have a coin flip game. And if you put your pick in with Washington, you you know for a fact everybody's on Dallas in that game, that's gonna be the game that has the most that would be the most pick game, hands down.

You already know that everybody. If you did not know that, then something that was in fact the case they had of the two games. Here, figure out what the other people are doing and go the other way with the coin flip, because if the coin flip goes your way, you just knocked out a whole bunch of people. Yes you will, you get your your three times better off.

Why would you want to advance with ninety people when you can advance with thirty said times On a numbers game, the object is not to survive, even though it's called survivor. The object is to win. You would be surprised how many people that we know that are otherwise sharp betters that don't get that. They don't get that well. And I felt bad because even the people that did sacrifice, um, they chose the wrong game. Five out of the six

people use the Dallas Washington game. Yeah. Well, no, if you're going to pick a game, you take the game that's gonna have the fewest number of people. You know for a fact that the most people are gonna be on Dallas. And if Dallas wins, you sacrificed one of your entries to advance with the most popular pick. You know, and and and and I'm it's not easy to figure this stuff out. It's it's not that anybody did anything stupid. It's but it's what makes these games so fun to play, right,

because there's so much to think about. There's it's just something years of experience and and and as as Todd says, it's game theory, and sometimes you have to throw out the handicapping. Yeah, I agree. What what you know? We a couple of weeks ago before Thanksgiving here on this podcast, we were railing against the people that we're going to go all in on one team that we didn't understand, Like I didn't understand that strategy. If you had two or three entries, I don't know if that was the

time to do that. Now, seven people ended up getting through. I'm pretty sure it was none of the ones that went all in on one team. I think it was people who did different hybrid stuff. Um. In the end, I ended up with Houston. And the only reason I ended up with Houston was the injury report on the lines. For me, the injury report made the pick for me. UM. So no, I appreciate that. So Thanksgiving was a complete Um was a was a fascinating thing to navigate through.

And for those lucky enough to get through it, ninety did go down with the Dallas Cowboys. Um, you do have some hundred and three entries left Another person didn't submit, right, so week ten was the only week that everyone submitted. Crack asked made it. I was like, it's only one week that somebody didn't submit, And these were the expected value if all A hundred and three got to Let's say, let's say no one ever lost again the rest of the way, which obviously isn't gonna happen, but let's say

it did. Twenty three thousand plus is the is the value of each of these pools with A two point three nine million, because Derek kicks in another mill so it's twenty three thousand plus right now. So when you don't submit, you're just essentially throwing that away at this point. By the way, I have nightmares about not submitting. I'm like, I can I need to go to California. Nope, can't do that. I'll be out of state. Last Saturday I jerked my head. I'm like, oh my god. Oh you know,

I thought I was close. I thought I was at the deadline for some reason. But I turned in one of my circuit entries right at so close that I just vegged the higher powers let me get in my better because I had one horrible entry and I had one great one, and I go, just let me get the first one in. I don't even care if I can't get the second one in. And it was my watch at two fifty nine and I got the first one and I go who And I go, Okay, maybe I can get the second one. And it was like

A maybe. He was like maybe I can't. And I did get the second one, and uh, Mike, he was you know at three oh one it locks out have three? Yeah, you really might watch seconds of the three minute and you had the guy a couple of weeks ago three oh eight pm with three entries. That was the email. He got knocked out, two Chargers and one Viking. Sorry buddy.

The other big thing was this week, um people were saying, I can't believe ten people picked New Orleans and the New Orleans remember the Denver quarterbacks ended up getting scuttled. I was one of them. I was one of them. Now here's the thing. Here's what I say to everybody who who First, of all the people who are talking about this, most of them aren't playing the game. And the other people who are saying it are in the game.

It might not be as good survivor players as they think they are would I don't know most of them are saying with the balls that it took or how stupid it was, but it was. I don't think it was stupid. It wasn't stupid at all. Wouldn't have done it. There was definitely enough and for me stupid to have played New Orleans because because the theory was that game could get postponed. And so what I'm what I explained to people is who who make that comment is it

was neither ball Z's. It was neither ballsy nor stupid. It's actually a bunch of players who have played Survivor a million times more than they probably have and actually have it planned in a certain way. And our play is not to survive. Our play is to win. We actually like, like I said, a Mall Shaw might be better at this than you are. Is what I said on the radio yesterday. Maybe a mall Show actually is better at this than you are. Um, And I'll use them all as a proxy for the rest of us.

We have we have it. We know who we played already, we know who we're going to play. So for those of us who played New Orleans, I can't speak for the others who did, but for those of us who played New Orleans, we were always going to play New Orleans. And by the way, and again I can't speak for the others, but it wasn't as wide of a choice as you might think. It was a binary choice in the end between New Orleans and the New York Giants.

And so there's a bunch of us who there was no chance in hell we were going to lose with the Jets. By the way, the Bengals had the ball was the only game in it on a huge thing, and I had to heage it because I was like, I cannot believe that the Giants are gonna punt this ball. They had it at yard line win the game. That was the only game where any of the Jet the survivor picks was in jeopardy. I don't really believe the

brow were in jeopardy. That was in jeopardy twenty yards and Cincinnati's kicking a field go to win the game. So if you if people understand that that was your choice and you were going New Orleans, and you had New Orleans planned the whole time, I'm not wavering off what I've had planned for months and risking the game on the Giants now after the fact, those same people want to say, you just don't want to admit you're lucky. No, you just don't want to admit that maybe you're not

as good at this as a show. How do you handicap whether they're going to cancel the COVID game or not? How do you put a percentage on That's the other thing that those people don't understand. They don't understand that that game was never in jeopardy of being postponed. So that's after the fact what I'm saying, Even if they are saying that it was in jeopardy, how do you put a percentage on it? Well, that's the thing you can't. You can't so exactly, so how can they? Here's the

Here's because those people don't have the humility gene. Here's the crux of the argument, I think is why guild you believe or Michael Barr, Lombardi or others believed that there was no chance that game would be postponed Because if you had been following COVID nineteen, you would see that the latest things that the NFL had been doing, Matt Stafford was in COVID nineteen reserve list. The context

Ben Roethlisberger was in COVID nineteen reserve list. Those guys had to do a series of five negatives in a row before they were allowed to play previous games. If you've been paying attention to that, you realize that the NFL already had this overall umbrella thing where competitive advantages don't matter to them. This year don't matter. The Titans and the Ravens were breakouts and in the NFL. Now we can argue whether the NFL is full of crap

with how they distinguished between the two things. That's another conversation. But the way that the NFL had handled it most recently, just because the Broncos thing happened too close to game time, it was consistent. The NFL doesn't care. It was totally consistent. By the way Vic Fangio has told you, it's totally consistent. Mark Loret, who won Super Bowls with the Broncho has told you it's totally consistent. So all of that is just people who who you know, don't really understand what

the rules are. And by the but but yeah, but gil, so, what's the percentage they canceled? So that means you have seventy seven percent chance that you won the game. Do you so it's not either way, Yeah, it's it's It's just amazing to me that the people who chirped most about Survivor was saying this yesterdo other day. My biggest pet peeve is people who are not involved in Survivor.

I have no idea what the what what has been played by certain people or what hasn't been Survivor is a very tough game to tell people that are in it when you're out of it, what you should or should not have played. The COVID thing is is sort of after the fact. The COVID thing is like people, oh you got lucky, did I Well, let me ask you this. Did you make your pick before the news of four quarterbacks being out? I had made the pick. I knew what I was picking all week, so that

was not relevant to your pick. No, you always were going to be on the Saints. Yes, because because it was for me, it was Saints versus Giants, even had I known about that, Even if I put the pick in right at the buzzer, is what I'm saying, I was still going to pick the Saints. And I can't speak for the other nine people who book the Saints, But I'm guaranteeing you they're savvy enough that they were in the same situation I was. Those Giants were not.

You really want to play the By the way, the Giants were available to everybody, one out of three people played them, only the Cincinnati Bengals not running the kickoff back, the game wouldn't have been anyway. I mean, I think that's an interesting conversation too. But I just think Survivor is one of these games where you had to have played at a bunch of times in your life to sort of understand there's a lot going on it. Don't want to but COVID is absolutely a layer. Don't get

me wrong. I'm more scared of COVID things than losing the actual game. Would you agree that the worst way to be eliminated from Survivors by your tea the game that you picked being moved. Yeah. With the worst way that has been lost so far the Pittsburgh Steelers pickle who didn't get to pick Pittsburgh, or or what about the person that picked them and then the game was moved that picked them early? Well, that's interesting that person. Yeah, yeah,

that person. I wonder, I wonder what they were doing there, maybe they had to go somewhere. They claimed they believed that they could move, they could change their pick if a game was moved before the deadline. That was their claim, although it never has never has a Survivor picked been recently, nor any pick put on can be that's done on your on your phone mobile contest. What's with the one time except possible exception rule? Is that only a good question.

It only applies to circule millions and if it was done on the count over the counter. Okay, so the app you're a card laid as a card play card. Yes, there's no possible way to even do it. And let me say it mechanically. The other thing about Survivor, I know everybody who's got an entry left ought to at this point feel pretty good about what they have left going on. But it's still a minefield COVID and you know it takes us one. Let's go back to the

over under question. Yeah, your number was what twenty three and a half, We would go eighteen and oh, alf I said twenty nine and a half. What's your number, Chris, if you had to make a number, But I haven't looked at the matrix so I don't know, but I I I would think that people are going to get through and Week eighteen is going to be the toughest week obviously, Week seventeen and eighteen. I think eighteen for sure because sixteen and seventeen, and without seeing the matrix,

I still think it's going to be lower. There's something can always you know, throw monkey wrench. Tod might be right because by that time your your lowest is in the twenties. Right, I'll go over over my number twenty nine and a half. I mean, it's really hard to know because right and first of all, we're assuming no minefield, no COVID. But imagine if you still get two week seventeen, you don't know what peace and motivated was motivated? Who's

not well? At least you can hedge at that point though, you can. So you're the perfect guy. You're my first call if he gets to that, and you know everybody's picks, so you know how exactly. All right, So here's the deal with this week. And you called it earlier, Christ and this is the final thing we'll do on the show. Here you called it a free pass week. The eight of the fifteen games, we don't have a Dallas Do we have a Dallas Baltimore line anywhere seven and a half,

it will be seven and a half. Probably, yeah, it's eight and a half. I guess seven and a half. You okay? So those are the games, So the games that are the biggest favorites, Which of the which are the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Out right? We don't have weeks like this where there are eight choices. Minnesota ten ten and a half point favorites against Jacksonville,

Vegas eight and a half point favorites at the Jets currently. Uh, don't hold me to these exact numbers, but you get the idea of Miami eleven and a half point favorites hosting since Sinnati, uh, Seattle ten point favorites hosting the Giants, Green Bay eight and a half hosting the Eagles, Kansas City two touchdown favorites hosting the Broncos, and as we oh, Pittsburgh sorry Monday, Pittsburgh ten point favorites or eight and a half depending, I think it's eight and a half

now hosting Washington, and then the Dallas Baltimore game, which I don't see consensus lines, but Tuesday, is Baltimore north of a touchdown? Who, Chris, in your opinion, is the most likely to lose outright? And why do you think this is a layup? Who would you? Who would you pick as a layup? You know what, I think it's just a free pass week. I would I would go with the Green Bay as the most likely to lose. Yeah, I mean most likely is the wrong way to phrase

at least likely to win, least likely to win Green Bay. Okay, Mikey, I'm with Chris. It's really hard to pick one of these. But I would say Minnesota. I'm in Minnesota to You've got Kirk Cousins. Anything can happen with Kirk Cousins. I think it's Minnesota. It just feels a little off their defense. It's just you never know. I mean, they could give up thirty and you know if Cousins could be awful. Do you imagine if everybody gets through again this week?

Not that you know a lot of people. The last big knockout was Cowboys seventy two people when the Cowboys went into Minnesota and one. It wouldn't surprise me to see the ninety on thanksgiving up the Cowboys too. Yeah, Jack Wires could win. What's that they could win if they got the first the new coach bomb they show up every week. The Redskins, By the way, the Redskins are not that bad and dealers, like you said before,

are not as great as everyone thinks they are. That that could also happen at every There's a lot of teams where almost everybody has available to them this week. What do you think will be the most most people have used Miami? I think either in one of their two places. I don't have the numbers off the top of my head. Ah. I think people might save Seattle. It's tough. You'll see more vikings if you haven't got knocked out on the vikings already. Key, I'll close it

by saying thank you to you and Derek. This is the most This has been the most fun contest ever. Seriously, I just don't want it to tear friendships apart. Yeah you know what I mean. Seriously, there's so much passion involved in this. People involved, but people, people are really I mean take it to heart, and they're angry and people people should give other people credit and they don't know everything. How about that Shaw might be pretty good?

Why do they give a ship's excellent children? Well they they might still be in two, they might still have one of their entries left. Oh my god, people are just you know, I'm just tired of people. I don't know if you've ever heard me say this before you, but this whole people idea, that worst invention ever, worst invention ever. Um, all right, thank you all, Las Vegas Chris, A lot of fun, dude. I could have this conversation with you every day. I love it for Las Vegas, Chris.

And good luck is circumillion. Man. How look, how obsessed are you with this down the stretch? You're you're kind of calm about all this stuff. Yeah, you know, I'll give a piece of advice to to to everybody. I don't give it any thought until you'd be surprised at how little thought. I mean. I handicap all my games. And you don't watch much either, do you. I try not to watch. I I the Monday game was important to me because it made me nine and one between the two and I bet it and I watched that

first half and it just nauseated me. So I just started working in the next week. But you know, you you have your games and you and you just work backwards and you you eliminate, you know, you eliminate what you absolutely will not use, and then you're not it's not that hard as you eliminate so and it it really takes you know, there are you know, there is contest strategy in determining what other people are using. Uh you know here last week I had one game that

was on the consensus. The two weeks ago when it was the blood Bath, I didn't have a single one of those games, and I had a great week. So I'm also considering, well, what are going to be the popular games? Do I want to be on them? So I'm trying to win. I don't want to be on him. I need the game. So are you using the same picks on both enders? No? Clearly because you're different places. You're No. Last year I used entirely different picks and still ended up uh that close. And this year, how

many are similar? Absolutely? None? I mean one of mine was in the wow. So dude, good luck the rest of the way. Thank you. We'll be in contact. Las Vegas, Chris for Mike for Las Vegas, Christopher Mike Palm, the vice president Operations and Circus Sports and god wish that. Thank you Todd, though he was frozen there. First kill Alexandra, Thanks for listening. Good luck with everything in Week thirteen, a TS survivor whatever you're betting on the