Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview

cork Attic park. And of course, uh the conciliary to Derrick Stephens, the VP of Operations, one of the vps here at the Circus Sports, the Great Mike Palm. Hello Michael, the morning Gil. You know today is a significant day for the Megapod. People ask me what is humanity all about? What is this life all about? What's the theme of it?

And I always tell them it's about sin and redemption. Well, today, the other member of our little mini sen Hedron, we'll have a chance to maybe get some redemption or at least apologize. Four. Well, I don't want to give away who the guest is. Oh, that's right, I forgot. You're referring to the incident. It's Todd Seminel moment on the megapod. So far, ladies and gentlemen back on the show for the first time. I hadn't I hadn't had him on a numbers game in a while too. And it's all

my mistake. It's my old friend Dr Bob stole from Dr Bob Sports at d r Bob Sports on Twitter. Bob, how are you doing for the second time today? Man entire of talking to you, Gil he no, do you are you aware of the incident we're referring to from last year? I have no idea. Well, it's a matter if much debate, wasn't it Mikey trying to remember? Yeah, some people thought, uh, someone here was being impolite to you and you you immediately said he wasn't being polite. Yeah,

you were just being nice. It was what we call propaganda. My good friend Mikey, being from Iowa, is someone who likes to, you know, indulge in a little propaganda and get his sick of fans to go along with him. So we created an entire narrative that was completely completely nonsense, and Dr Bob put a stop to the nonsense, because Dr Bob is a man of substance, not like certain people who eat popcorn and drink wine at the south Point. Enough, there it is. I don't say a word and he

comes right after. Um. Let me just can I say this? Because we're the Master's first round is going on as we're recording this, Eldrick Tiger Woods is two shots back. If Tiger Woods wins circu closes on Monday, it's over fifty three to while we could kill for the Tiger Blue Jay afternoon mattenee. We got, we got, we got, we got, we got the os at the Rangers and

then we got three thousand people coming for it. And Bryson to Shambo, by the way, is even par through ten and he's been in the Woods the entire round. So the fact that he's even and only five shots back to me is still also the story of the round. But anyway, football week number ten, Mike, Before we get to our format with the three best bets, the teasers, the survivor and all that, michigas um three ten left and survivor. The inaugural survivor contested circuits started with somehow

three survived This week. I was on the Steelers. That was just by the skin of my teeth that everybody else who had the Steelers. And then, oh my god, the Patriots very resilient entrance. It's incredible. You know, if Anthony Lynn could coach it, all would probably be over at this point. He had a chance to knock out the Chiefs in week two, he had a chance to knock out the Buccaneers. People that have a chance to knock out the Saints. I mean all those games that

he blew those big leads in. But so we set with three ten. We still had another week where an entry wasn't placed. So all nine weeks so far, somebody hasn't turned in. How about they're the guy that went eight no, and you're one of the three thirty or whatever left and you don't put the enter. I s incredible. But here's the question. This week, two seventy of the three ten have green Bay left. How many people will choose green Bay this week? I asked that on a

numbers game this morning and Jason said two thirds. And I said, if it's two thirds, it's an upset. I think it's more than that. Yeah, really, well, how many people know how to play game? Theory or how many people take the game literally and just want to survive. And that's not to say I'm not going to play green Bay, because I might end up with green Bay. So maybe I'm playing it wrong too. But if you're playing it right, and if you're playing it to win,

you probably don't take green Bay. You take somebody else and hope for a calamity. It's an interesting week because you're just you're just ten days away from Thanksgiving, which will really be the the seminal moment of So that's the thing about Circuit Survivor. Last thing on this Thanksgiving is the cork. It's the eighteenth week. It's a week on an in and of itself, and it's Detroit, Houston, It's Washington, Dallas, it's Pittsburgh, Baltimore. Man, it's a prayer

for everybody. A lot of people have already used Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Have you considered that Pittsburgh Of those other four teams, who would you select? There's no obvious choice unless there's some injury news or COVID news or something comes out. Who's gonna play quarterback for either Dallas or washing No idea, And can you trust Detroit or Houston.

Can you Yeah, it's it's a prayer that day. I do want to mention this, yes, because this was brought up on one of the other shows on the Visa Network for Survivor Thanksgiving, there's there's one before you. What is the deadline to get to pick in? We all know what's Saturday. I was gonna ask you this. It's Wednesday night at ten pm Pacific, So I want all of our listeners out there to know that that are still in Pacific. So one am Eastern Thursday morning. Okay,

that's that's a good question. That's a good answer to know. Alright, let's start with our best bets for a week number ten in the NFL BOB we usually start with a Thursday night game. Actually, that's the way this works. Is your do do you have any thoughts on Thursday night? And if you do, is it one of your three best bet? Sir? I do? And it is all right? What is it? Fire away? All right? I like Indianapolis. I released them to my clients earlier in the week

when it was plus one and a half. It's now minus one. I still like Indianapolis. Um Tennessee, my models had them overrated most of the season. The metrics aren't particularly good. They've played the second third easiest schedule in the league. They run the ball far too much to be an efficient offense, and that works sometimes because Derrick Henry can break off some big runs. And if you have explosive running plays, that's that's that's pretty good from

an analytics standpoint. But if you do not have explosive running plays, we were wasting your time running the ball in the NFL, and the Colts do not give up explosive running plays. So I think it's a good matchup for the Colts in that sense. Also, Dorry Jackson is not playing. He was activated, but he is not playing for the Titans. Um so the Colts should That should help the Colts out there. Darius Leonard is playing for the Colts. He's missed two and a half games so far.

He practiced this week and he's ready to go. Uh. They're They're top five defense, even though he's missed two and a half games. He's one of their key players. So I like the I just like the matchup here. Also, Hannahill might struggle. They target tight ends a lot. The Titans do second most in the league, and the Colts only about five point two yards per target to tight ends.

In the meantime, Xavier Rose, one of the top corners in the league in shadow A. J. Brown, And I think the other Colts defensive backs can handle the rest of the Titans receiver. So I like the matchup, and uh, my math model favors favors the Colts here and Bob, I buried the headline because I did it on the radio side this morning, so I forgot to do it again here. Your record this year thus far in the NFL against the spread is uh thirty in is that right?

Thirty and third? He is fourteen and one the last three weeks, and I was sixteen and twelve, thirty and thirteen, thirty and thirteen. It ain't bethany Poris, but it's pretty damn good. Thirty and thirteen is Bob said on on the numbers game on Visa this morning. The sort of coin flip games have by and large gone your way, and that's how you get to thirty and thirteen. You're good, but you're also getting good fortune. Two right, the last two weeks has been all blowouts. You've been getting the

emails the last two weeks. We're nine and one, and it's all all nine wins were easy. The week before that, I was four and o or five and oh at four O five and oh um, and I think three of those were nail biers, you know, and I don't want all three of them. In general, I've been winning more close games than losing in the NFL. But I'd still be hitting, you know, sixty three sixty four percent if i'd split the toss up games. It's just been a good year for the model. And I think we've

talked about it this morning. Um, you know, I think, you know, adjusting for for all your injuries other than just quarterbacks, mostly the market just to just for quarterbacks and maybe a half point for McCaffrey or in the leite wide receiver, but we just for every you know everything, offensive lineman, edge rushers, cornerbacks. I mean, we had just for every position, and I think that really gives it

gives us an edge. Yeah. I brought that up this morning of all the things that I learned from you over the years, Bob. And by the way, if I may just say to you on this podcast, there was no better person to work with to have a school of handicapping than it was to work with you, and that was I always thought that was your forte was the ability, and this was more in a basketball contest than football, to to properly assess the value of players

and in players out. I always thought that was your best edge and stuff, and so that that's why I asked that this morning. And uh, at least part of your success this year based on that. That does not surprise at all. Mikey, your first play no Thursday night, Do you have any thoughts? My best bet is your third best bet the under tonight under forty eight in this game, and I agree so well, that's even better.

Thank you for being a man of such integrity. Ton I agree with I agree with Bob's analysis and that I think Tennessee is gonna have a hard time running the football. And if Tennessee cannot run the football, Tannehill is much less effective as a strictly dropped back passer. I mean, his success is off the play action based on Derrick's Henry's ability to run the football. UM at this stage in his career. UM, I'm not the biggest Philip Rivers fan, but I'm just I'm just not at

the light. But the key to defending Rivers really to get him off his spot and to make him move around. Tennessee hasn't had much of a pass rush. I think Rivers will be able to control the ball and control the clock tonight. And I have a hard time seeing this game getting to forty nine or fifty. I think I think this I like Bob's playing there. I think this is a I think this is seventeen type of a game, and I would lean Colts, but I like the under Moore and so that'll be my third best

bet and a lot of Derek. Maybe the maybe the team total Tennessee team total under then would be our our combined play. Yeah, absolutely makes sense. Yeah, Todd, any thoughts on Thursday night? Two things? First of all, did you want me to update the records or no? Yeah, please update the records. I'm so sorry. It's like I've never been here before. Okay, the records are really improving. Gills up to fourteen twelve and one after another nice week.

Mikey up to fifteen eleven and one after another nice week, And I had a pretty good week. Two and I'm up to thirteen and fourteen. Gil and Mikey lost both their teasers to fall in six and three on teasers. I want my teaser to go to seven and two on teasers. So that's your little update on that teasers. Now, as far as Thursday Night goes, I would like to go with Bob two, but I'm not going to. The reason I'm not going to is not because I disagree with anything Bob says. I agree with it. I would

love to bet on Indie tonight. I think it's the correct side. I won't do it because I started. I went to a little meeting the other day called f p r A. It's called philip Rivers Anonymous. I will not bet on philip Rivers anymore p r A philip Rivers Anonymous, and I messed up the p r A p r A, and it means you we've all decided as a group not to bet on Philip Rivers anymore due to the lack of um your soul to be

able to keep coming through when he screws you late. Now, if I wasn't in that meeting of philip Rivers Anonymous, I would like Indie because I think that um colts have trouble when Indie get when they get a big pass rush against the me and you both had Baltimore last week, Gil and I thought we were in trouble early, and then of course the fumble recovery for the touchdown

turned the tables on the whole game. But I think it really shows that if you if Indy has a game where Philip Rivers is going to be pressured, they have no chance because obviously he can't move, But if they have a situation where he can, you know, just sit and pick people apart, like tonight, Tennessee is not very good defensively. You know, I like Indie two, but

like I said, I won't bet on Philip Rivers. Todd, you you summed up my thoughts on this game perfectly, because if I had not attended that meeting, I don't know if you saw me in the back of the class. I don't like to show myself. I was in the back. But well, it's anonymous, we're really not supposed to be talking about. Yeah. I would probably go to the Indianapolis side as well. Uh and but let me just talk

about that Baltimore Indianapolis game for a second. We've talked about this forever on a Numbers game I know you and I did on Wish I have Wednesdays last year. Key fourth in one situation for the Colts in that game last week against Baltimore, They're down twenty one to ten. There's five thirty four left in the game. It's fourth and one. At the Baltimore six team kick a field goal, they go down eight. Okay, they decided to go for fourth and one. What do we know about Philip Rivers teams?

He does not sneak. He doesn't sneak. The defense never has to prepare for it. Pass play never has a chance. Typical. Philip Rivers typical. And that's such a key point in games where the defense doesn't have it's a competitive advantage for them. I really believe that you need is bruder z Appruter film to find Philip Rivers sneaks. So I can't play this game. Rivers has a better spread record than Tannehill this year. The same where's that Mikey best bet? Bob?

That was your number one best bet? Right? Oh? That was one of them. I just, oh, there are we ranking the best bets? Yeah? That was my number one. That was his number one. Alright, Mikey, you're number one I'm gonna go back to I'll go back to a team I've had the last two weeks. I lost with them two weeks ago, covered last week. I'm gonna go back to the Baltimore Ravens UH playing against New England. UH in the evening game on Sunday, listen, New England

could not stop the Jets running the football. Before you get into the discussion, what what line are we giving him, Gil Baltimore is that's an excellent question. I think it's mostly seven sevens not happening with that, Well, it's not seven and a half. So the New England had no ability to stop the Jets from running the football and and by all means, Adam Gaze did a masterful job

avoiding a win on Monday Night. In the game, they really should look how good Flacco look because of the play action they had to try to commit to the run. They were missing Gilmore. But here's the point, Baltimore is going to be a Baltimore plays well against bad teams. Baltimore, it's too fast on defense for New England to be able to sustain drives. It's not going to be like where Belichick could just control the whole clock in the fourth quarter and not let the Jets onto the field.

That's not happening. Baltimore is going to be able to run the ball at will, and when they can run the ball, Lamar Jackson can be an effective play action passer. Um. I would lay up to ten ten and a half in this say, I just don't think this game is going to be close. Baltimore will get to the lead, and when they play from the lead, they're devastatingly good team. Uh, this is one of my better best bets of the year. Ravens minus seven minus seven wait, wait to stop while

I was adjusting my mask. Seven. That's all right? What of your favorite ones of the year? You said, I really like this playoff? Okay, I like it Todd number one. You know I I I'm with Mikey on this one. I like it a lot to one of my you know, I would say it's my best bet. Two. I'm going with Baltimore minus seven to I. I just think that Baltimore beats up on bad teams. Um. New England is not a good team this year. Uh. If you have to struggle to beat the Jets, come on, I mean,

who are we kidding? Have you watched this the Denver game. Did you see how poorly they were offensively against Denver? They're just not a very offensively explosive football team. Cam Newton is not super accurate anyways, There's no one to throw to even if he was accurate. Uh, you know, they give it to running backs. They're not super exciting. They're just struggle offensively. I mean, sure they could score against the Jets on eight team play drives, but how

are you going to do that against Baltimore. I think they're gonna get killed. And Baltimore loves to beat up on bad teams, so you know Belichick is gonna pull out all the stops and everything. But I I just like Baltimore minus seven. I mean, come on, this is this is a tale of totally different classes of teams. The Jets thing the other night was very peculiar, wasn't it. There was a fourth and three in the first half. I think it was three to nothing at the time.

Don't hold me to that. They were in plus territory and they punted and that was like, what are they doing their own eight? And then late in that game, when they're still up, Flacco with with what amounted to a fourth and one punt excuse me, a first down punt where he just threw the ball up in the air gets picked. Uh. And then they had the twelve men on the field during a field goal. Okay uh.

And then there was a third and twenty for the Patriots where the Jets played off the receivers and they got nineteen and you're like, they really, they really try to win this. And so for those of us the survivor who were like rooting heavily against the people who have had New England, that was a bitter pill to swallow, but it didn't make you wonder. And I'm no conspiracy theorist, but there was a lot of things that happened in that football game. By the way, that was a great

That was a great in game opportunity. I had the over in that game. Midway through the second quarter. Both teams were averaging seven point two yards per play. At the time. The game was supposed to be like line forty or forty two. Before the game, no one thought any points would be scored, so there was absolutely no correlation to the way the game was playing at seven point two yards per play for each team and what the actual line was it went easily over even with

drives that were like eleven minutes long. So you know, guys, in game, if you're not watching this in game stuff, you know you gotta do it. It's it's there's so many opportunities. My my number one pick this week is the Cleveland Browns minus three against the Texans. Uh. This was on guessing lines with Chrissie Andrews on Monday. This was the line that clearly jumped off the page to me and made it. It made the least sense of all. I guessed Cleveland minus four and a half, and I thought,

if anything, I was gonna be light. And he told me, he goes. You know, I said, I like your line better. I see nothing but two and a half and threes. And then you thought, well, maybe this is because Baker Mayfield is in the reserve COVID nineteen lists, and so it's some kind of strange, nebulous thing that's happening. Nope, Baker Mayfield uh is off that he is eligible to play. He will play, and it's minus three with extra juice. That's the consensus, right right, I see three and a

half and and one three minus twenty five? What do you see Dr bob um it's split. I think three minus twenty five or three and a a half is a choice. I think we we need to give you three and a half to be fair. Go oh wait a minute, I see nothing but threes. Three minus twenty five is probably consensus. Three minus twenty five is consensus, Todd. That's how this works. You don't give me a minus three and a half in minus one ten? Well, three is almost three and a half. But okay, it is whatever.

But I'm just looking across the screen and the kinsensis of minus three minus one anyway, Okay, are you gonna Are you gonna if this pick loses town? Are you gonna grade Gil has more than one loss? Because it's great point. It's a great point, Mike. Maybe we should do that, give him a quarter loss. There you go. Let's just have that for the rest of the year, hanging on it if it doesn't be awesome. Houston's only wins this year Jacksonville and Jacksonville UM, and they have

lost to everybody else. It's been a tough schedule though, Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Green Bay. So no real shame and all that, but they do get housed by most of most of those teams. Anyway, I'll just get back to the original. I'm gonna just go with my first instinct. This line makes no sense to me. Cleveland is by far a better football team. Deshaun Watson came out this week and said, if will Fuller had been traded, it would have sent him into depression. I

don't think that football team is right. They don't scare me. Jacksonville. Jake Luton, in his first game as a pro, went for over three hundred yards against the Texans defense and they needed to stave off a two point conversion to prevent overtime. Give me the Browns minus three extra juice my number one pick, Bob number two. I'm gonna go with Philadelphia now. The Eagles have been struggling all year to stay the least, and they struggled against the Giants

when they played them in the Meadowlands. But Philadelphia is healthier now than they've been in a while. Um they get four skill position players back this week, well, not all of them back this week, but Miles Sanders is back, Jasen Rigor and Dallas go to the tight end and Al Sean Jeffrey, so they have more weapons for Carson Wentz, and I think he's been really struggling because he's been forcing a lot of throws. And I think that more

people open now with all these receivers back, plus Miles Sanders. UM, so I think we're gonna have a good match up there. I mean, Giants have one good defensive back in James Bradberry UM and he'll probably take Travis Fulgan and that might be a toss up when he might shut him down.

But now Lens has other targets that he can go to, and the rest of the Giants cornerbacks are combining to surrender one point seven yards per cover snap, which, if you know anything about yards per cover snap, one point six six is not good. It's very bad. So I think Philadelphia will definitely be better equipped this time around against the Giants defense. UM, and they're gonna put a lot of pressure on Daniel Jones as as usual. Um He's face pressure league high forty three of the time.

I don't see how anybody's gonna block flex or Cox. I mean, they're their guards and centers are terrible. The Giants, speaking of Um, the right tackle Fleming ranks forty nine out of fifty five qualifying tackles and blocking efficiency pass blocking efficiency that is, and they'll have trouble with Brandon Graham with seven sacks, it's just fourth in the league. So I think they'll get acbility, will get a lot

of pressure, and they'll have more options on offense. And I think when Philadelphia is healthy as they are now, I think they were better than average team. And the Giants I think they still suck. I mean, they were out game by three yards of play last week, and they're winn against Washington and they were plus five in turnovers and barely won the game. So I think it's a good opportunity. I think maybe that game gets as lined out of here. So I like Philly minus the

three and a half average corner back three five. Look at that, I could do the I could play the Guild game here, the Guild game twenty five. By the way, Bob average allow average cornerback in terms of their targets allows what about six completion rate um wide receivers? Yeah around there, okay, probably a little. Yeah. The yards cover snap is one point four, you know, something like that, one point three, one point four there at one point six six if I'm good, all right, Philadelphia minus three

extra juice number two for you, Mikey. I like the Buffalo Bills. Oh do you the Buffalo Bills? Todd? What's the number that you have as a consensus Bills? I have, yeah, one and a half two, something like that. I'd say too, because I see some two and a half two. That's too okay. I'll take the Bills plus two. I like the spot that that the Bills are in right now. I mean, we're starting to see the progression of Josh Allen here and in an ability to run an offense

um that has some balance to it. I'm, you know, in the I first sense some issues with this Cardinals offense and that Monday night game against Dallas. This this team is just doesn't click on all cylinders. I don't I don't know what's missing there. I don't know if it's the play calling. I don't know if it's Kyler Murray, but I don't know if it's a lack of talent at wide receiver. But this car No offense should be more productive than it is, especially in terms of of

of passing efficiency. I think the Bills are a team on the rise. You're getting the benefit of travel even though it's not really a home field advantage, and making I mean, on a neutral field, Buffalo would be favorite. I would think, um, and so I think you get the better team here and you're getting a couple of points, and I think this is a solid team and the defense he's got a better head coach. I'll take the bills. That screams one of my teaser legs coming up, screams

and show. She would be great for the show. Whether what do you think she's great or not, she'd still be great for the show for the show. Can I just say something about Cliff Kingsbury just for a minute, because he killed my over thirty four and a half in game and my Arizona last week. I don't know if you guys watched the absolute nonsense fourth down and one. It's thirty one, all six or seven minutes to go, and they've given Kyler Murray has been unstoppable on the

short yard. Instead they hand off some other dude who can't even come close to getting a first down. Now Miami gets the ball, goes down, kicks the field goal, and now here comes Arizona. Back again, fourth and one, again from the thirty one, and this time the dope decides to kick a field goal with less than two minutes ago. I don't understand why you would even kick a field You're only tied and you give them a minute and a half to win the game. Anyways, it's

a stupid decision in the first place. And then if you're gonna go ahead and do it, maybe have a kicker who can make a forty seven yard and come up short short. Came up short. That's the crime, right, How do you come up short in the NFL on a forty seven yard or with beautiful field conditions. It's ridiculous. It could only happen to me. Thanks Hashem Sham does it again? Oh Hasham always getting a ton? By the way, just to be fair, it was a forty nine yarder

from Zaying gets Allas whatever. I don't care whether it's God. I've made my pick, but I want to raise this parliamentary procedure point now that we're going down this path. Could I have taken instead no defensive or special teams touchdown in the Packers game minus three ten? Would that have been allowed as a pick? I'm pretty sure that's not allowed. Okay, I'm just just clarifying. But we do we do a contest on a prime time action. We just do a golf draft where we just get five picks.

It could be in any market outright, top ten, head to heads whatever and uh and Kelly Bidlin went with top top Canadian or something, a top nationality and he wedged his way into a you know, a victory that way. We're like, I don't think you could do that next time. That doesn't sound fair. So now that's all we're doing. Um, who are we? Where are we taught? Your number two? Four? Mike? He has given three picks. Me and you each have

given one pick, and Bob's given two picks. All right, number two from you, Toddy, Okay, my second pick is gonna be the Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bhoy, did that team look bad last week? I like good teams that got embarrassed the week before, if we uh noticed, uh, the Niners before they became aim a mash unit had a horrible game and against Miami, came back and spanked New England. I believe if that was the correct sequence. But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I mean what's there to say?

Somehow the Saints were getting pressure on Tom he couldn't do anything. The whole game was just a throat in the garbage kind of game. Are the Bucks really that bad? No? I don't think they are. Are they as great as everyone was making them into into Super Bowl contenders? No?

I don't think they're that great either. But you have to think that if they're going to get these players attention and have a true, tremendous focused game, it's after getting spanked on national television in Tom Brady's probably most embarrassing game as a pro. I would think I can't even remember any other game where that happened to Tom Brady. So I gotta think that everybody in the Buccaneer building is totally on board with making sure they have a

big performance. The Carolina Panthers ain't nothing special. There's no reason why they shouldn't be able to cover the five and a half or what is that the number you have, gil five and a half or six? I got what do we got it? Hold on? I got turned away here like bro I got it at uh five? Hold on six? Six, I'll take it at minus six. I think the Buccaneers can handle this team. Um, you know, they played him earlier in the year and pretty much

handled them easily. So I'm gonna go with the Bucks because I gotta feel like everybody's gotta, you know, just be totally coming back to focus because of that spanking Todd, you and I arapo on this. My number two picks the Carolina Panthers plus six. Um, I don't see why I shouldn't take the six points at all. Here again, just a triat to Dr Bob here. If we want to tuck yards per play in terms of offense, Carolina actually uh, and they will not have Christian McCaffrey here.

McCaffrey will come back the following week, so they got a more optimistic diagnosis than they thought they would. But no Christian McCaffrey here. Uh. Caroline has lost every game that McCaffrey has play. Just coincidentally, but Carolina's six yards uh per play on offense Tampa Bay five point five. Tampa Bay's defense, though in yards per play, is better, but not by an egregious margins. Also by uh just over half a yard, and um, listen, Carolina probably could

have beaten Kansas City last week. They had a field goal try at the end to try to do that. They probably should have beaten New Orleans. New Orleans, that is, but Teddy Bridgewater took a really bad sack in a late game situation and that forced another Joey slide ridiculously long field goal. Tim. I think the Panthers are are a very solid football team, um, and if you're giving me six at home, that's kind of an auto play for me. That Tampa Bay thing on Sunday night, Man,

that was dreadful. And I get it, they're not gonna be that bad every week, but there was a moment there where I actually felt sorry for Tom Brady like they they looked like some moribund team. I will take Carolina in the six and be very happy be with that bet. And if if Tampa Bay can beat me, tip of the cap. We don't see that very often on the show. Dr Bob, Bob still pick number three, Bob, You're gonna see it again here, Gil. I like Tampa

Bay two back and back. Last week. As you know, Gil, I was on the Saints and I thought they could put pressure on Tom Brady as they did the first time they played, and so far this season. Uh, tom Brady has been well. It's been pressured thirty two times in two games against the Saints. That makes a thirty seven percent of his total times being pressured the entire season. Obviously, when Tom Brady is not pressured, he does business. UM. Last week, part of the problem for Tampa Bay was

that they're starting left guard was out. Um Ali Market ranked second in the league in past blocking efficiency at his position. He'll be back from his concussion this week. The backup guard was horrible surrenders seven pressures last week, and you know they're not gonna have that issue this week. Carolina does not have much of a pass rush. UM and you don't want to go against Tom terrific after

a loss. In his career, and this includes his first year when he wasn't that good, although they did win the Super Bowl. Um Brady is fifty three and fifteen straight up off the loss, forty six and twenty two against the spread, two and oh this year with the Bucks off the loss, and if he's not laying seven or more off the loss, thirty six and ten against the spread in his career. UM and my math likes favorite Tampa Bay by nine, So I like I like

Tampa Bay as well. How many of those Brady stats are with the Panthers, They're not with He's not with the Panthers. I mean, they're two and awful losses years. I'm undefeated, Gil, I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna override that small sample size and say that I'm not I'm not gonna be sample size like Joe great Off the loss with the Niners, went to Kansas City. Great Off the loss with Kansas City. Very Now, I'll meet you both back here in a week. We'll reconvene, then we'll

talk about it. Okay, alright, Uh number three you already had number three. Mike wheready had your three, which is called sunder Colts tight Todd number three Colts Titans under party eight and a half too. I am, I'm really struggling here for a third, but I'm gonna go with um. You know what I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go off on. Mike is just gonna take the Cardinals. I'm gonna take Arizona. NUS. I like this, and I'll tell you why. Um you know, I think Arizona, like I said, should have won that game.

They had this game in you know, to a play great. By the way, I was totally wrong, or I could be totally wrong about two. I didn't say he wasn't gonna be great. I just said he didn't show anything against the Rams. But let me tell you something that Miami Dolphins football team and hit it. Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, Brian Flores has taken us to the playoffs. This team is for real. Two I is awesome. Miami Dolphins all the way. Okay, and we got that done. Now I

get to hit it next time. You can edit right. The Arizona Arizona should have won the football game. In my opinion, I think that, like you know, already went through Cliff Kingsbury's idiocy on fourth down. This this Kyler Murray fellow, he is unbelievably elusive. Have you seen anything like this? And and it looks like a video game. He gets out on the corner. You can't stop this guy. We've seen this already, Jackson, Yeah, I mean, what do you mean we've never seen this? Jack What about Ricky?

What about Ricky Foggy? How about that we saw He's not Vince Vince? What's the guy from Texas He's not Vince m who couldn't throw. He's the guy the Titans obscure character. He can throw the football and he can run the football, and he runs the football. These guys aren't even close to him. I've never seen an elusiveness like like this guy has. It's incredible. I'm with Todd

on this. I think it's unlike. It's not Listen, take your running quarterbacks from way back and Steve Young, Lamar Jackson, of course, Russell Wilson, whoever it is, Douglas, Bobby Douglas, whoever comes into your mind, turn your Gail Turner, Gil who by friends used to say my buddies and DC used to say to me, his name is Guilt turn but hated so he turned it around. H I agree with you, Todd. I've never seen anything quite like this kid. It's like a water bug man. You cannot find him.

It's unbelievable. And I don't know why on fourth down it they didn't just run that read option every single time. It's unstoppable, absolutely unstoppable. So anyways, here's why I'm gonna take Arizona. The bills to me are coming along. I definitely agree with with Mikey here. This is a team that can move the football. I don't like their defense though, I'm not very impressed with their defense. Now you're asking them to go on the road after a gigantic performance

against Seattle where they picked out the whipping stick. And by the way, that was one of my over picks last week. I didn't play a pregame and after the first drive they went right down and scored. It was then sixty one and I said, screw it, load the boat on over. It was such an easy over. Seattle is just incredible over team this year, as we said last week. But the Bills do not have a great fence. I think Kyler Murray is gonna be able to move

the ball on them. And you know, coming off that huge win against Seattle, there's got there could be a letdown here Arizona coming off a disappointing game. They should have won the football game. You know, I get to go against Mikey. Is there anything more fun than that?

Give me the Arizona Cardinals in the desert going down, Joshua Allen, Boston, Bobby, what did you say, Bobby Douglas that you said Bob Chicago Bears, se I'm old has a little before my time, Bobby, there was a guy named Evan, wasn't there Evans for the Bears, who also was like a running quarterback in the seventies and sevens. Was not a running quarterback. It was sort of a running quarterback, not really, not really, Bob Evelini is who you're atin? Oh? My number three, I'm like, Utah, I

don't really know. After number two, it's sort of tough for me to come up with the number three. Um, I'm just gonna play the San Francisco forty Niners depletion. I'm gonna go with the Saints, right like, that's what I'm gonna do. I'm just gonna I'm just gonna Yeah, I'm just gonna act like what we saw with the Niners is what we're gonna get from the Niners through number you always got to get the best of the

number nine. I'm gonna lay the nine here because I just don't think San Francisco has bodies to do this, and um, they do have a turnstyle running back. It doesn't seem to matter who they plug in there. But I just think the loss of Kittle was massive in all kinds of ways. On offense. That just takes a whole dimension out for them. Jordan Reed can't stay on a football field to save his life, even though he once had great promise. I don't think the Niners can

can less as great as Kyle Shanahan is. I think Sean Payton can outdo him in this as well. By the way, I've been killing Taysom Hill and their inclusion of Taysom Hill into the offense time and time again this year. Man Taysom Hill look real good the other night in all kinds of ways, filling up a box score. Um, I'll take New Orleans and I'll give up the night. It's not something I like doing. But I just don't think San Francis. I think San Francisco has waived the

white flag. I think that when they traded Kwan Alexander too. I just think they're like, you know what, this and this isn't gonna work out this year. And I'll ride that sentiment. I'll take the Saints for lack of a better other option. It'll be the Saints minus nine. All right, silence from the crowd, All right, let's do uh Teasers of the week. Todd in the teaser lead he's in the A T. S. T Sell and the teasers, you guys, are both six and three. So our teasers have been

spot on this year. We have been absolutely pounding the teasers. Now. The reason we all went from six to one, Me and Mike went from six one, six and three is we didn't have Stanford long teaser legs available to us the last couple of weeks. But now we do. We have plenty to choose from. When when that's about yourself? Okay, so here's do you want my teaser first? You want like Bob's teaser first? Thanks very much? All right. I actually played a teaser early in the week, but it

no longer qualifies. I played the Colts when they were plus one and a half. On Monday, I took the Colts with Seattle. Talking about long teasers plus seven and a half each. I'm still gonna use Seattle. They're still plus one and a half or two, so I can get them at plus seven and a half and they're gonna pair them with Chicago on Monday night. Home Dog plus eight and a half. You have danced, You have used all that. You've danced around and used all the

all the long teaser legs that I didn't like as much, Todd. Okay, I'm gonna take the Bucks down to just win the game. Um so Bucks pick them, and I'm gonna take the Baltimore Ravens minus one. Okay, I'm going with Buffalo and the Chargers. I'm taking the two uh small road dogs in their respective games, teasing them up through the three and the and the seven. Chargers have lost every single

game this year by seven points or fewer. I'll happily take them up to eight and a half or eight whatever it is, uh and play them against the Dolphins. Dolphins have been aided by defensive touchdowns the last couple of weeks. Unsustainable, that's what that is. Thanks. By the way, there's another group you can go to. A l Anonymous is another one. Look, yeah, no, but I'll take it ill. Yeah,

they lose clothes, I'll take the Aaron Shots. Yeah. Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders was on a numbers game last week. He said, guess who the team is with the most consistent performance week after week. It's the Chargers. But because they crap it out. What's that the teaser Dream? Yeah, they're teaser dream. Chargers are one leg and then I'll take Buffalo. Mikey's one of Mikey's best bets. I'll tease

Buffalo through the three and the seven. I don't think Arizona is a team that I expect to blow out Buffalo. I think at the very least Buffalo keeps it closed. So charges in Buffalo. I two had a dream, and I'm taking the Chargers plus eight and a half. When they tell the Anthony Lynn story, I think the title of it should be at least now you get draft picks. And then my other one is the Ravens, who I'm going to agree with. Todd teas them down to one. I don't hate that at all. By the way, I'm

sorry to step out of line. It was your turn on my turn. There's no turns here. I apologize. Okay, we were Oh Survivor, Oh they only one a live? Bob, do you play Survivor at all? Wait? Who did you end up last? I'm sorry, I was asking Bob a question Todd got. I got knocked out last week, and I am getting who it was because it was so painful. I had it all set up. I'm in a loser's pool where you pick a loser each week. Oh that's right, yeah,

pack them twice. Now, I had it set up. I had it so my last two weeks, and it's like it's thousands of people on this thing, so you need to really plan for the end because it always goes down to the end. And I had the Jets and Giants. The final two weeks is likely double digit dogs, all set up, mapped out, and I lost. I forgot who it was. It was brutal. So anyway, I'm out. I forgot it was, but I'm out of my loser's pool.

All right, Todd, what was your point of clarification that tough? No, I just I forgot that you had said before that you took you ended up because last week you didn't tell us who you had, and then you ended up with Dallas, so you ended up Pittsburgh. Let's talk about that. If Gil gets down to the final three weeks and there's a hand for he can't be given out. His pick On already said this last week after Thanksgiving. I'm

not giving him out. You can text us on Saturday afternoon or whatever, but that puts you at a disadvantam petitious. They already know what I discussion right there. Just jinx him. Good job, Mike. I hope gil wins. I got down to the final ten in an eight person pool a few years back, so I'm a I love survivor. H green Bay is not the correct pick to make if you're trying to win this thing, you should probably pick

someone else. But I have a feeling I'm gonna end up picking green Bay because that was on my grid. That was on my map that I made for the season. Yeah, I think I'm just gonna end just There's just have many other good options. That's who I had mapped out Jacksonville map. If you had the brown still available, would you use them this week? No? I would. Green Bay is the obvious pick this week. I kept them for this week, so more than likely I'm going to use

them this week. Alright, Final two questions? Are we already there? Wow? Brisk? This has been brisk. Not so much showed deference this this time around. Quicker. What was the source of that? Remember? He said, well, Dr Bob and then he started going on about the model. And I'm sure Dr Bob agrees with me. Dr Bob knows that that numbers can get polluted with dirty numbers based on stupid drives in the fourth quarter or a million other are different scenarios, and

he cleans it up. I take those out, exactly, cleans it up. The things you need to be in them. I include them. If it's like in Polope, for instance, I take out all let's say it's Clemson. I will take out their garbage time stats if they're playing a team like Notre Dame, and if they're playing a team they're favored by twenty eight or more, and I'll reinsort them is they're probably gonna have garbage time, right. The real affront last year Todd spin this. The real affront

was when the way he said doctor. Remember he said, well, doctor Bob, that's exactly how it was said, which shocked not a real doctor. So he had every right to say it like that. As as with everything with Todd, it's never the content, it's the vehicle with which he presents the content. Yes, we didn't like your tone, That's what I was. I was not offended, Mike. I have a problem with people who you know and get, you know,

unearned titles. For instance, I know a guy who's a vice president of content management doesn't do a great job, but it calls himself a vice president. I mean give me a rate. I'll tell you what I earned that

Dr Bob nickname. I was quite the basketball player, and I was nicknamed after Dr J. I figured up in a minority neighborhood and quite the street game, and I my last few years in high school, I moved to a pretty much all white sort of neighborhood, and they nicknamed me Dr Bob because I played like Dr J. They thought, where did you grow up? I grew up in balleto the suburb of the East Bay. And in the Bay are the mean streets of Leo. Like Tupac have a great story. I have a great story for

you that that is similar to that one. I had just moved to l A and I was out playing pick up basketball in my neighborhood with nine black guys in me and I was the last one, and I played really, really well. After a little while, they're like, get the bat a, Larry Burn. Okay, we've done, We're done here. Where where's the shark? All you? Larry? Starting next week? All right, I'm Dr Bob and I earned it, You guys done. Todd Winn has survived in French Like

I'll tell you that right now, he would not have Alright. Finally, questions, Um, first, the big favorite, most likely to lose? That right? Green Bay thirteen and a half. Well, let's call it thirteen point favorites at home against Jacksonville. Uh, there's not many candidates here in New Orleans. Maybe you could stay there they if the line goes back up, Yeah, let's call it Pittsburgh. I know where you're going with this, Bob. Pittsburgh north of seven for sure at home if Big

Ben gets to play here. Uh, we'll see if he's cleared from the COVID nineteen reserve. Listen, here's a couple more negative tests. They would be north of a seven point favorite home against Cincinnati, New Orleans nine point favorites home against San Francisco, Baltimore seven point favorites on the road against New England. Who's the most likely to lose? Out right? And I know the answer, Bob, I can

guess your answer. Well, I went against Pittsburgh last week as a best bet on Dallas and that was an easy winner. And I've been on Cincinnati quite a few times. Is your first some winners? Um, I think Cincinnati has a decent chance to beat Pittsburgh. I think you're right, and I think Cincinnati would have been one of my best bets if we had a number here. Todd uh bad, biggest. I don't know who. How do you pick? Who were the choices against Packers and Steelers? I guess or those

choices Baltimore. I guess I'll take the Bengals too. I don't think they're going to beat the Steelers, but I'll I guess I'll take them. That's what I would take, Mike, can we use this, uh the Tampa Bay game? No, Well, that's not one of the choices. It's too low. What you would say Tampa Bay though? Six though, Yeah, but there's not many choices here this week it was it was teetering. I would take if the Steelers are back up, the Steelers, I would do the same thing you would do.

I would take Tampa Bay if that does include it. But I'll take this dealer. By the way, Dr Bob, I gotta tell you one other thing I found out about you in two thousand six. I remember where I was. I remember there was like a gambling board and this doctor Bob guy kept There was a whole controversy with this doctor Bob guy. Dr Bobby's this awesome guy, blah blah blah. And I remember thinking when I was sitting there, it would be so fun to go work with this guy.

At the time, I was doing really well selling life insurance. And then I meet my brother from another mother, Gil Alexander, years later, and he tells me from another mother, what did you say, my brother from another mother? And I've told him that that's right, my brother. Now I didn't I didn't need to. I sorry. I just thought. I just thought it was so funny because me and Gil

had such interesting, very similar experiences growing up. And then when I had heard of you, I was thinking, Wow, this Dr Bob would be a great guy to work with. And then I find out Gil ended up working with you. Was like it was almost like some alter ego kind of weird deal. I've you know that he actually had

worked with you. I think I probably read the same thing you did about Bob at that time, and I knew from that Bob lived in San Francisco somewhere too, so I was always at that time, I was like, I wonder where he lives. It turns out he lived right over the hill, right over there. Hill. I'm sorry, Dr Bob go ahead, though, so I did. I only saw gil what I decided I wanted to see. That is a lot. God, what was the controversy you said? There was a big controversy over Dr Bob, this great guy,

Dr Bob. So I was remember I remember reading some like Internet boards. This was back in two thousand and six, and there was this whole Doctor Bob was like killing it and releasing games on Thursdays in college and the lines would move, and then people were all screaming, oh, Dr Bob's not that great and blah blah blah. Meanwhile you were killing it and moving all the lines all over the place, and I just remember reading a whole.

I don't even know what the controversy was. I just remember the first he was people thought it was like some Chinese syndicate or something like that moving all the lines. And um, at that time, the lines would move literally two and a half to three points every single game. And I had a year two thousand five it hit seventy percent in college football. Um, it was it was easy back then. That was the first few years that my model was. After I programmed the model that I

was doing by hand for years. It was the first couple of years after I had a programmed and automated and it's just it was sucked it in and that thing. We're three years of sixty winners in college football at a three year span. That's how. That's how, that's how Physik won his college football competition. To use my picks, Bob, didn't you have to go to a time to you had to adjust your release on a time or didn't you have to like ad just because of that? Yeah,

I used to. I used to send him out on email at ten o'clock on Thursdays every week, and some people get their emails at different times, and then they started playing. By the time I get my email, the lines have moved and I was like, oh jeez, I'm not gonna do here. So I had a tie. I had to set up a time or on my website or with a countdown and release one play at a time so people could count down to zero, they refreshed

the page, they bet the game. Uh, then three minutes later the next the time or reset for three minutes and then the next game would be released. And it became a big headache. Honestly, I mean people think, oh, it's great, you move lines, and I'm like, no, it's a pain in the ass because I have to It's a constraint that I have to deal with, Like I have to have set up, you know, specific times to release games so my clients are ready for it, and or I have to text five minutes in advance at

a place coming. I can't just release the play whenever I want, which is a constraint that I have to deal with because of it. So it's not it's more of a purse and a blessing. I'll tell you that.

By the way, it just reminded me of Arizona State USC when he was talking about those college football games, because back in two thousands six, I had a crazy situation with them, and then of course at them Kipper massacre and then I don't know if you guys were watching USC Arizona State this week, but I ended up losing that one in another ridiculous fashion. Did you guys see what happened at the end of that game, how

Herman Edwards blew the game? It was unbelievable. It's there's something about that because when you the first down and sit on it. Yeah, and then of course they give up the The onside kick is just like, It's just incredible. Herm Edwards is another guy. He plays to lose the game, like Anthony, and he's like Anthony Lynn Jr. Does recruit well and he is a solid coach, not a great game manager. You're right, but I'd rather have him than a lot of guys who manage games better but can't

recruit as well. Final question, Guys, we play in a bizarro world. We bet in a bizarro world where we're forced to bet a side on every single game, but we're allowed one free pass. Again, fourteen games in the NFL, including tonight's you got a bet thirteen of them. What's the game you want no part of? Now? There is no line currently Cincinnati Pittsburgh for why in Detroit? And I'm not sure if Baltimore is back on the board either.

Baltimore had a COVID positive tonight to um. But if you could pass on one game on the side, Bob, what's the game you want no part of? Buffalo Arizona? I just these teams are pretty evenly mashed. My model favors Arizona by one point nine of spreads to both teams are in like negative situations let down situations. Um, yeah, I don't want any part of that game. I think it's complete toss up. You know that Bob and I hold the consecutive days record of eating Thai food in

San Francisco. Oh I wish that was the case. We have that record, Todd, what do you want no part of I don't want any part of Seattle l A Rams. I cannot understand who the l A Rams are except for the fact they have a quarterback who's vastly overpaid. Who knows what's going to show up this week? Seattle has no defense, granted, but I just I don't know what you with the Rams. Every week it's something different. So I'm off that game. Yeah, I don't. I don't

hate that pick. I agree with Todd. Yeah, the Rams their team. You only can end game. You have to watch them play the first quarter and decide what what goffs mood is going to be and how his body languages and if he's looking down the field or if he's got his eyes glued to the ground. So I want no part of it. When is Carroll ever going to get his feet held to the fire for how bad this defense? He's a defensive coach. I talked to Lombardi about that yesterday, because he's a Carol guy. He like,

he thinks Carrol's one of the all time greats. Yeah, he's like, when he gets credit for Legion of Boom, why doesn't he not get credit for this? And I don't remember the answer. I don't I don't remember the answer. I was off to the next one he said. He said, Carol needs to get more involved in the defense because he can point to his trophy and the players will

buy in where Nagy can't. The question was about Naggie Carroll and right was he also though when he got when he had guys like Chancellor and all those guys in the Legion of Boom, was he so close to his college years that he knew those guys were gems and so it was like a Jimmy Johnson thing where he knew the better players. And then it's just sort of this one stretch of very interesting point. I don't know. I don't know. Is Philip Rivers a Hall of Famer

according to you guys this question? What about Warren Mode I would say I would say Horror Moon, yes, Philip Rivers, No, Dr Bob, I love this. Dr Bob go, Dr Bob. Philip Rivers that background good not great quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame because they played for seventeen or eighteen years. Yeah, this isn't Craig Bigio in baseball. Manning should not get in either for winning two games. Other than that he was mediocre his entire career. He's like the definition of

MEDIOCRELI Manning. People like, oh, he's a sure fire Hall of Famer. I'm like, hall of famer? Are we talking about the Hall of Fame for people to throw interceptions? I mean, what are we talking about? Well, he's won one more Super Bowl than tread Dilfer, one more Super Bowl than Mark Ripping, and no one's talking about them in the Hall of Fame. So like, why would he like just be on that he wasn't He wasn't even a very good quarterback, that's right, But he's right down

the middle is wins and losses. By the way, my pick if anyone cares with Seattle in the rams. But we always agree on that, but we don't always have the same game. Um, I think Philip Rivers is not like I don't think you can apply the same rules to to football that you can in baseball. Right, So Craig Bigio gets in the Hall of Fame because he's just played long enough where he accumulates counting stats and then people are like, oh, well he had that many hits,

so you're in. I don't think you can do that in football. So I would say no, But there's a there's a lot of people think, yes, baseball is the numbers game. Is the Hall of Fame? The numbers game? It's the numbers game. How is Dan Hampton in the Hall of Fame? So many guys? How's Dan his pants higher than any other player in the Nashual Football League history? All right, Dr Bob, do you allies baseball as well? No? I do not. That was effort is I've left that

to other people over the years. I have am I might dig into it again, but if I do, I i'd probably consult some people who are handicapped before I start programming it. So no, but I don't see any reason to I didn't. I did baseball for Bob. Some years were wildly awesome and some some years were wildly terrible. But by the end of the run, we had this thing where it's like, well, no, you just have to you have to give the picks that the day before, well,

the market had evolved. You can't. You couldn't do that anymore. There was no way. And you're still getting judged for your record from the night before. It's like, come on, I can't do that today. It's impossible. You don't even know what the openers and that you have no idea what you can't do it? Yeah, do you bet in game? No? I? Um, well, on Saturday's is my only day off. I don't do that.

And on Sundays I'm working on the next week's college football and not really paying attention to what's going on in the games, except you know, the end of the games. I tune into the to the red Zone channel. That's That's about it. But I I've had too much work on Sunday's working on college football for the next week. So are you doing college basketball this year? Bob? Yeah, uh yeah, yeah, I'm spending gonna spend less time on it because I put everything. There's a new model that

we have that I work have a data base. Math guy who's a is a young genius, and I've been working with him. We worked on the NFL model that we're currently using together. And UM, he does all the nitty gritty, behind the scenes player you know, player work on that, which is very helpful. And I worked on college football mostly um and we worked on a college

basketball model, which mostly was was his doing. I injected the kind of things that I thought we should look at, and and we we have a model that we think it's really really good with really great priors, which is the key to a good a good college basketball model. We we we used two thousand four to two thousand fifteen data and built the model as if we were

entering the two thousand sixteen season. Then we ran it on the next four years and it tested out over fift on games, which was much much better than we expected. We were expecting fifty four fifty four and a half percent. And this is without adjusting for players or anything. It

was just here's what the models should be. When we ran it for the next four years, and it was it was yeah, and we're really and we're gonna release games in the morning, which I've done the last few years with success, is releasing college basketball games at six thirty in the morning, specific time before before the limits go up too much where the syndicates hit him. Um, So yeah, it's it tested way better than we thought.

So I'm excited about it. So I will be working on it, but not doing all nighters three or four times a week because now a lot of things automated. So I'm really excited about it. That's become a big deal in college basketball, and Boston were rant on my show about that all the time. He's like, He's like, you can't syndic kates are coming in and just grabbing at all. It's a big source of big thorn in his side. He likes to say there's two sides to every story, but that was his opinion on that. So

I know that's a big deal. UMM. In the college basketball, do you ever see can I ask one of the quick questions go ahead in the in the college basketball, do you ever see situations like with Gonzaga last year where they just couldn't make the line high enough because in a sense, they're breaking the numerical um expectations because of the fact that they play so different, like they could make loyal a merrymount even run, you know what

I mean. Do you see that kind of thing where it like breaks the model with certain teams, Um, I did pretty well. Well, here's the thing with Gonzaga. Yeah, I get what you're saying, because you're gonna most models will regress their performance down a little bit. But I also no, yep, So for just for the model's sake, I don't think I would have been on Gonzaga that often.

But I also did not go against them because I know, as a favorite of twenty five or more, whatever the number is for them, they cover the spread seventy or seven the time generally, so as big fairs usually crush. So even so, if my math was against them, or my model was against Gonzaga as a big fair, I just passed on. But I was talking about the totals actually, because the totals last year. I I don't really get into totals too much. We're going to you know that

this model was built, Yeah, size and totals. It projects efficiencies offensive and defensive going forward. But we didn't back tested on totals because I didn't have data going back that far. So we're gonna do it. So I didn't really do totals last year either for that, you know, for the same kind of reason, because Gonzaga last year. It was ridiculous. It was like Seattle this year in football or Tampa Bay last year, and in football it was just it didn't matter what they made the number

because Gonzaga was going to break the expectation. Right, So they're if they're total eight points the game odds makers they were like, all right, one sixty five or one seventy one, seventy five one, and it's just they're still gonna be one ninety or one eight or whatever it is. Yeah, anyways, Yeah, that's super interesting stuff. But sorry, Gil you always very interesting. Um, always interesting. I could have talked to Bob for hours about it, could talk for more, but we gotta run

NFL Week number ten. Thank you, Bob, appreciate it. Good to see your face, man, Good to see you guys. And good luck this weekend, yes sir, good luck to everybody a week ten picks in the NFL Fade or follow. We got a lot of oppos today