Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 1 Preview

docuseries Action Back in the Day. It's Todd wishing of a spelt, Todd wishing of how many pounds have you lost? Toddy, Well, I'm down to two nine. If you know, during the Action show I was three. So that's uh, if you're doing the math at home, that's about seventy six pounds. Anyways, that's a lot of pounds. Seventy six pounds from the talk and since since I was in Vegas another forty one.

We're also a flying start everybody, and of course Mike Palm ladies and gentleman Derek Stephen's conciliary, uh, the vice president of operations over there at Circus Sports, Mikey, thank you for doing this. I'm so excited to be back on with Todd. I missed him as uh you know, was the Census year, and like all of his people, he had a return home for the Census, So I'm looking forward to seeing him. Not even sure, I don't

even know what kind of like did that was. I didn't even really get it, so Mike, maybe you'll explain it to me later. That's just a governmental joke from Mike, nothing more a rotating guests, and we always have a rotating guest. He is always in the leadoff spot, a

tradition unlike any other passed. We want him to give the year anymore former Super Contest champion over there when it was called the Hilton, so that gives you some sense of when in history, something like that, part of the San Susi team when he wanted at the time the finest record in Super Contest history as well. It's Brady Hand and how you doing, Brady. I'm doing great. Good to be back on the megapode now, Mike. Here's

what happened before the show. Mikey joked that if Brady's on the show, is gonna last double the like that it normally does. So now Brady's only speaking in phrases. He's like, thank you's so happy to be here. You want to get on with it, Mike, get you down. I don't think you talked too much. And you know, Mike, he just loves to like get a get a like a meme going about somebody that's totally not true. And you know how it is, those big casino executives, they

just care about themselves. We know, Brady, how many people were in the Super Contest in two thousand and eleven when you won it? Five hundred and seventeen. And what's interesting about that number? That was a record high at the time, and ever since then it really just increased exponentially. I think the next year there was about seven fifty, and then they got to about eleven hundred. And you know,

nowadays we're into the neighborhood of the three thousands. Not this year, but yeah, five hundred and seventeen, and that was a record high. Brady, you're you're a modest Is it fair to say that it was your idea to have Super Contest weekend? Thereafter? It was? Yes, After the victory by San Susie, I got on the phone with Jake Hornegay and I said, Hey, let's let's throw a golf tournament. Let's have a big to do to get everybody fired up about football and have everybody come to

your hotel for the weekend. And I think it was just a few weeks ago that we completed our ninth Super Contest weekend, so that has stuck. And now Mikey's involved too. They have their own contest weekend, so it's great stuff. Did you use the phrase to do when you asked about this with Jake Cornigant? Is that actually came up? I did, specifically, Yes, Mikey. Mikey. What Brady is referring to, obviously, is that Circus Sports h entered the contest game last year and too much fanfare. You

are doing it again this year. You are doing it with a survivor contest as well. Can you explain to the people's I don't know why I just talked like Bill Cosgy, but can you explain to the people's what the overlay may or may not be in both of those as we approach Saturday week one deadline, because you've got a huge sprint here at the end of entries,

didn't you a real a real last minute rush. I mean you asked the P. T. Barnum question about three weeks ago when we were at about three hundred entries. How much of this overlay is real? And how much is P T. Barnum? In the last fifteen days, we've done almost two thousand as we speak. The circle million to which this year Derek guaranteed three million instead of one point five million and needs three thousand entries to

break even for us? Is that two thousand, four hundred and fifty six, And I mean there's an outside shot we get to three thousand. We did three hundred and thirty on Tuesday, and we did four hundred and thirty entries yesterday and we're at almost so you're gonna get it for sure. Then now we're not not for sure. Remember the proxies starting really tomorrow and Saturday have to start p and picks in so it's hard for them

to get up a lot of appointments. The late rush, if it is one, will be mostly locals, people living in Nevada. So what's the what's the what's the drop dead hour? Like exact hour, the bewitching hour is two pm on Saturday, Todd and then you have to have your picks in by three now the survivor. We introduced it to Last Man Standing. I'm sure many of your

loyal megapod listeners are familiar with dad. You pick a team, no point spread, you can only use them once during the year, and who's ever left at the end wins a million. Derek guaranteed a million, so we actually surpassed it, and we're at a thousand, forty seven right now, so maybe we get to twelve hundred, twelve fifty in that for a pot of one point three million. We added the rink goal that if anybody all, Todd, I want you to treat this like this is the McLaughlin group

talk when you are called upon. Well, I haven't gotten any eartime in months, so it's my time, baby, It's my time. Let him tell his story. Todd is saying, with metaphysical certainty, will get to three thousand. There's some Laughlin reference for you, eleanor cliff anyhow maybe we can get the thirteen hundred. It's winner take all, Todd if anybody goes perfect. And we added the three Thanksgiving Day games as its own week, so you gotta say one

of those six teams in case you get there. If anybody goes eighteen and oh, or multiple people go eighteen and old, Derek will add a million dollars on top of the pot. So one guy goes eighteen and al, he's looking at like two point two million right now. So even if it ended in week fourteen and there was one player left, he's still gotta put picks in the rest of the way to see even get the

million dollar bonus. By the way, typically do survivor people go the entire season to win or do they usually win before the season ends? You know in stations they have a hundred thousand people in it. You know they're twenty. We'll have about a thousand. I would be surprised if if somebody made it eighteen and oh, I predicted it would be around fifteen or sixteenth week, would we'd be

down to one? But we'll see. It's interesting, it's a different year, uh, And it'd be may may be tough to get through the first few weeks when we haven't seen anybody play. I asked Mikey a few weeks ago how much of this is real and how much of this is P. T. Barnum, which is my way of saying, damn, how much of this is you and Derek bullshit? I wanted told question for me. I apologize three weeks later, but you know, I thought a worthwhile question. Nonetheless, all right, boys,

here's how it goes. We have the format that we've had for years. Let's move the Thursday night game up to the front. We don't have to elaborate on it if we have no particular conviction on either the side or the total. But it is the Chiefs and the Texans. It is nine and a half in favor of the Chiefs in a quote unquote home game. Right, it is a home game, but it's obviously the year of COVID, so things aren't exactly the same as they used to be. Uh.

The total is at fifty four. Mikey, let's start with you, or actually, let's start with our guest, because that's the only polite thing to do. Brady, anything tonight Thursday Night football.

I actually did play the Texans, and uh, you know, this is not a handicapping element that I think you want to base your play on, but I do think there is a little bit of a revenge angle here, uh, and specifically playoff revenge because we remember the Texans got out to a twenty four to nothing lead, and again that is not the basis of the handicap here. But I still believe that they have not forgotten that and

do want to make amends for that. I also think the general public likes to bet against Bill O'Brien and the Chiefs conversely or are a big public darling. So I think this point spread is skewed a little bit. Um. I do think Houston has a chance to win the game. Um, but I'll go with the points here plus nine and a half and I'll say Kansas City by six. One of the more memorable playoff games in recent history. As

Brady said, the Texans went out to nothing lead. Kansas City eventually wanted fifty one to thirty one, but they came back from the to nothing deficit, as I recall, with eight straight drives in which they scored, seven of which were touchdowns, one field goal. Just an amazing turn of events. One of the great playoffs is that, Brady is actual. Is that one of your three picks, Brady, Because as the stenographer, I have to get this down correctly. No, it is not one of my official best bets. For

the podcast, but I do officially have the Texans in pocket. Todd, Let's ask you a question. Could you let the last three words of my last sentence finished before you do that? Or you just need to knock out those last three words? Two? Five? All right? I appreciate that, Mikey or Todd anything on this game tonight. Anything. I can't believe Todd Hadson spoken. And by the way, you're the secretary, You're not the straphyll he called me. I did, I did all fair.

I'm sorry. Maybe I should doutgrade him if that's a I have an official play on this Okay. One of my three picks is tonight, and uh it's only because I'm really struggling to come up with three plays. But I'm gonna go over fifty four tonight this game. I think this Houston offense, you're down grading yourself. It's actually fifty three or fifty three and a half. This is the first time ever four in the open. If you were listening, he previewed the game as fifty four. Well,

Gil got it wrong. Well, let me see, maybe I did get it wrong because I didn't have the totals up, So it's very possible ladies and gentlemen, that the number of the consensus number is my screens that coming up. Uh yeah, fifty three and a half. Actually, hold on, hold everything, fifty three. It is fifty three. Pardon whole point, Mikey, Wait a minute, you said fifty three and a half. You were trying to still chine me out of a half. So I'm gonna go over three or fifty three and

a half. I saved you a point. I'm gonna go over fifty three. I think this Texans offense is loaded and and and here's the other reason. There's no crowd noise that arrowhead to mess with them on third and long. Okay, this will be an interesting factor for bookmakers when they're trying to set these totals. The defense is not gonna benefit the home team from loud noise and snap counts, not only the false starts, but your offensive line not firing off the ball all at the same time, I

think this is the shootout. I'm with I'm with Brady. I think this number is greatly exaggerated. And if you could have gotten ten on this game, good for you. But official play todd over over fifty three from Mike Palm Todd anything from you right now, I'm not making any official play on this game. I really don't have a feel for it. Although I leaned towards the Texans. I mean, nine and a half points is a lot of points, and and it's not like the Chiefs now.

Granted in the playoffs, they did have that blowout, but the Chiefs didn't blow people out every single week last week, if you remember, there were a lot of close games and and nine and a half points against the good team, there's too many. Now, I'm not making it a pick or anything, but you know I would lean with Brady on this one. No pick from me in game opportunity. I think if I leaned anything, i'd lean with Mikey. But no pick for me on this. Let us begin

with the official best bets. Brady, we start with you. What is pick number umber one, sir? I'm going to begin with the Los Angeles Rams. And I actually made this bet back in May uh Rams plus three against the Cowboys, And much of this was based off of my feeling gil on what the public perception of these two teams is. And I think in week one, UH, starting your point of handicap with public perception is kind of a good starting point. You can dive into the personnel,

the injuries and and all that type of thing. Obviously, we don't have preseason two assess this year, but I think public perception is a good starting point in Week one. And with the Cowboys, you know new head coach, a perceived upgrade from Jason Garrett, the shiny new draft pick in Ceedee Lamb, and how much talent this team has had for years, brutally under underachieving last season, and it just seems like people are giddy about America's team and

are already crowning them super Bowl champion. Conversely, I think the public perception is extremely low on the Los Angeles Rams, and I also think it's very interesting that all summer long this line was pretty much frozen at three, even though it seems the public judgment of these two teams already exist. And now just finally here on opening night, we're we're starting to see some two and a half

pop up, So maybe some Rams money finally coming in. Um. I think the Cowboys will be good for sure, but I think the Rams will be much better than the general consensus is. I also think Sean mcveigh's offense is going to be able to use misdirection and really take advantage of what is a pretty weak Dallas Cowboy linebacking corps. If you look at the running backs that they have in Los Angeles to replace Todd Gurley, the draft pick

cam Acres, Malcolm Brown, Darryl Henderson. Cam Acres is really a stud and a lot of people would have known more about him if Florida State was any good last year. But I think those three guys will allow Jared Goff to have play action pass opportunities, and we all, I think could agree whether you like Jared Goff or not. When he's able to do play action pass, uh, that's

when he's at his best. I think this game has a potential for a lot of points, but I think the Rams are kind of a sleeping dog here with everybody so high on Dallas and down on on the Rams. Also a couple of big losses in the lineup at the line of scrimmage for Dallas. I don't think this necessarily affects the point spread, but could affect the game. That's offensive tackle Ao Collins out for Dallas. Gerald McCoy of course will be out on defense, so I think

the Rams could win this thing out right. I did not bet the money line, but I will see if I can win the game with the points. All right, Rams plus three extra juice, give us some extra juice there, Toddy plus three minus once when he consensus on the Rams. That is the Sunday Night game of the week. By the way, Drew DINSI, who does such great work. Whale caper art Twitter, who was on a numbers game on visa with me earlier this week, he also loves the Rams.

We'll hope to get him on the Megapod at some point this year. By the way, in contrast to the Texans and the Chiefs, where the Chiefs obviously beat the Texans and they come back we just talked about on their way to winning the Super Bowl last year, Cowboys in the Rams two of the most disappointing teams last year in the NFL we were called Cowboys, ended up going eight and eight out of the playoffs, a game behind the Eagles in the NFC East and the Rams.

After getting to the Super Bowl the previous year and losing to the Patriots, they finished nine and seven on the outside looking in third place behind the Niners and the Seahawks in the NFC West Todd number one from you. Well you all know that. Um. Even though some people don't think I'm that bright, I did uh have a lot of very juicy stuff last year in the National Football League and have forgotten more about gambling than some people will ever know. I won't talk about who those

people maybe, but I will just say this. I was dead right on the damn Tampa Bay Buccaneers going over every damn week of the NFL season, except the funds that I held off. Didn't bet them over. Against Houston Texans, it didn't go over, and then all the rest of them, I just kept going over because we they couldn't play defense, and they had a great offensive football team. Plus Jamis Winston pitched in with a bunch of pick sixes, and it was just beautiful. It was like Gonzaga over, baby

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over. And I'm gonna go with even though I've got background noise from bar Canada, I'm gonna go with the over. Why in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans States game? And here's why. I've got Tom Terrific Brady at the offensive helm. That's gotta be as good as Jamis Winston. We're gonna be able to score a lot of points. I haven't. I don't believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have upgraded the defensive end of the ball until I see it with my own eyes

and guess who they're going against. Yeah, that's right, They're going against Drew Brees, he of the Well. Maybe not the smartest things to say in a racial pandemic situation. Let the true Brees. Let New Orleans Saints. I'll see over because I think there's gonna be points all over this football field. The consensus is forty seven and a half for forty eight, Gil, tell me what I get. I'm going over those numbers, baby, you get forty seven and a half, sir, over forty seven and a half

for the Tampa Bay New Orleans game. That's an afternoon game, one of three afternoon games on Sunday week one. How many early games I hate when they do this. There are a grand total of nine early games in three afternoon games that we have a Sunday night and remember a Monday night doubleheader coming up as well. Mikey, was that pick that you gave earlier? Was that your number one best bet on the over of the Houston k C game. Why don't give us your number one best bet?

It was actually my number two best bet? And what is a racial pandemic? My number one number one? You don't know what a racial pandemic is? No one knows. It's the Tennessee Titans on Monday night, the second Gil didn't give his first pick. You can't go to the second pick already. Well, I was trying here, Todd. Okay, fine, here's the thing. My number one pick happens to be. Are you ready for this? The Tennessee Titans. So because Mikey in order? Okay, but Mikey already gave a pick.

So I was just asking if that it was his number one pick. Do you understand how it was his number two pick? You asked me to hold you in in Okay, Okay, you helped me in contempt, So okay, I'll follow the guy who apparently is more than just the secretary. He also can all this in contempt. I'm on Tennessee. And then Mikey, you can chime in with your number two pick to start things out. How about that or your number one pick on this? Also? You know your number two. No, you're number one, but here's

my number one as well. This is both Mikey and my number one pick. We're on Tennessee. I'm on Tennessee because of the following. If you listen to a numbers game. Maybe I said it on the megapod to last year, but all last year, and I think I did this with Utah a number of times. No one loves Drew Lock more than Drew Lock. When he made good plays, that dude was the happiest guy in the world. He

just thought he was a world killer. But if you go back and look at his run late last year, Drew Lock beat up on really bad past defenses in his four victories, really bad bottom quarter bottom third actually yeah, no bottom quarter checked that past defenses in the National

Football League, and so competition matters. H Adam Chernoff, who was on Visa and the Show be Former and Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and PAULI Howard, he absually added to that as well, where he said not only that he was also helped Drew Lock was by yards after catch, primarily by his receivers, in a way that most quarterbacks were not. And if you look deep into his pressure stats. How does he perform under pressure? Not good at all, almost bottom of the barrel in the

National Football League. So here he is now the beginning of his sophomore season. There's a von Miller problem that just happened in Denver, brutal loss for of the Denver Broncos. Tennessee was a two point dog, two and a half point dog at one point, they're a two point favorite. Guess what. I still like him as long as it's not three Tennessee Titans, who, on the other hand, to me, are criminally underrated, even after their great playoff run, having

beaten the Patriots and the Ravens last year. So for me, it's Tennessee. Mikey, Yeah, I agree with you. I was listening to the president of the Todd Wishing of Fan Club, Michael Lombardi, talking about They're not gonna play Drew Lock in September the way they played Drew Lock in December last year in those meaningless games. Uh, there's too much public perception of this great Drew Lock. I agree with you, Gil,

it's much different. He's gonna have to go up up against a much more well coached defense than he faced at the end of the year last year, and yeah, von Miller is a factor in this. For me, I thought this was a cheap price. Personally, I make the Titans about a four point favorite in this game. So that's my number one. Best Okay, that's my number one as well, Brady, let's get your number two since we

already had Mikey's number two. My second play is on the Atlanta Falcons and as high as plus two and a half. Now I got them at plus two over the Seattle Seahawks, and I think he can begin with public perception again here too. People remember Atlanta starting the season last year at one and seven, dan Quinn was going to be fired. They tend to forget that this team finished the year six and two with wins over San Francisco the Saints. Uh, they won their last four

in a row. I also think public perception on Todd Gurley is low, but I think the change of scenery will be very good for him. It seems like this guy's been around forever, but people forget he's only twenty six years old, and you add to had to add him to this offense that I think is extremely powerful from a passing standpoint and a potentially elite running back. I think this can be a really well bound, balanced,

formidable attack for Atlanta. And on the other side of the coin here, I think the public look public looks at Seattle only laying a pointer two and it looks like low hanging fruit and gil. You know, Seattle has notoriously struggled against the spread on the road. Atlanta, by the way, very good at home eleven and one straight up against the spread in home openers under Matt Ryan. UM. I think Seattle is still questionable on the offensive line. They don't have a great pass rush. We know they

did not signed Clowney. Dan Quinn, of course, spent a long time in Seattle under Pete Carroll as the defensive coordinator. He knows what this team is going to try to do. Uh. Falcons also last four meetings against Seattle are undefeated against the spread. UM. I think it's possible that the wrong team is favored here. Now you know there's not a huge difference between Seattle minus two and Atlanta minus one. UM, but I think this game should probably be picked them

at worse. UM. I like Atlanta at home catching a couple of points. Seattle on the road, I think is a fade situation in the in the opening game of the season. I'll take Atlanta here. A matter of fact, Todd, give him plus two and a half. That seems to be the consensus right now. So Atlanta plus two and a half. That game for me is gonna come up later, but in a totally different context later on the show, as we progress through all of our questions. It's one

thing to have a global pandemic. It's one thing to have racial protests. Is an entirely different thing to have a racial pandemic. Ladies, and gentleman Todd wished of on the board with his first ridiculous comment, what do you got number two? Todd? Well, here's the thing about me. I like to be entertaining as well as informative. Some people are informative like you, Gil. Some people are entertaining, like Mike. I try to bring the two together. Now, Yeah,

you're the total baggage. My second pick. You know what I have to say. I gotta go with Brady on this one. I like the Atlanta Falcons too. And here's why. If you remember the Atlanta Falcons, they do have a quarterback, and they Maddie Ice, and of course I've poined the phrase Gilly Ice for mental fortitude lacking that that Maddie Ice has as well. But if you noticed last year, late in the season, Maddie Ice got his crap together and the Atlanta Falcons played a lot better football late

in the season. I believe there was a game against Seattle where Matt shab was the quarterback and they kept it close and played them real tight. I think plus two and a half. Seattle's, to me is the kind of team. They can look amazing, they can look you know, you know, they're very up and down. You know, Russell Wilson gets three touchdowns behind and then it comes flying back and and wins the game out of nowhere. I could totally see this thing like a six game. I'm

getting two and a half points Atlanta at home. You know, Atlanta played really poorly coming out of the gate last year. They've got to have that in the back of their mind, thinking we gotta get off the schnite early in the season. You've got to play hard right off the get go. Give me Atlanta Falcons with Brady Rustling two and a half. That game's got Planko written all over it for me. Plinko plus two and a half. I get two and a half points in plink Plinko might go against you, man,

that ship might end up in a slot you don't like. Um, but you know, just my opinion. Uh. My number two picks, since we already have Mikey's is the over in the Houston Kansas City game tonight. My number two pick as we fight through the the just absolute din at the d in downtown Las Vegas, where it must be teaming with contests signer ruppers better than Mike's heavy breathing from last year. Um, alright, My number two pick is the

Miami Dolphins. Hit it Todd, mymid Dolphins, mymiph number one. Alright, that's enough. I'm on the Dolphins plus the six and a half against the New England Patriots. Uh new era obviously in New England, not just because Tom Brady has gone and Cam Newton is in behind center, but because they are team opt out, so many opt outs over five less than ten. I want to count seven or eight tone goal, but that includes Patrick Chung, It includes

Donta Hi Tower. In fact, uh, they are without their starting linebacking crew from last year, not just because of opt outs, but also because of transactional things, and so the conventional wisdom seems to be, well, it's still Bill Belichick, it's still the New England Patriots. They're gonna give six and a half points to the Miami Dolphins. I simply do not get this. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback in the a f C East period, and I am

all about the Dolphins. I have a Dolphins bet for them to win the a f C East at eleven to one. I have a bet on them with the season win total over. I think this is a criminally underrated football team. You're giving me six and a half a team that, remember, beat the Patriots in Week seventeen last year, when the Patriots did have Tom Brady and did desperately need to win that football game, completely ruined

their playoff run by uh killing their seating. Give me the Dolphins plus six and half, Thank you very much, Brady number three. Okay, number three, I'm gonna go to the a f C East as well, and I'm going to take the New York Jets, also getting six and a half and uh for the third time in a row. I'm also going to start with public perception here and you know who is in love with the Jets this year besides their fans, and even those fans are perennial

downers doubters. Um. Meanwhile, everybody loves the Bills, and including myself. But I do think Buffalo has a really good chance to go deep in the playoffs. That doesn't mean game one. Week one, I'm going to lay a touchdown with them against a division opponent, and we know, especially the first three weeks in the NFL season, the division underdogs are a strong play. Um. I go back to the fact that revenge is not a strong handicapping angle, and I

don't put put much stock into it. But we go back to the opening game last year, and it was a pretty tough pill to swallow, I imagine for the Jets. They were up sixteen to nothing on the Bills. C. J. Mosley gets hurt late in the game, Bills come back to win seventeen to sixteen. I gotta believe that the Jets have not forgotten that, and their season just immediately went downhill. Sam Donald got Mono and the entire campaign

was shot. So they kind of get a second chance here to start off their season with a good start and uh. I love the running back trio of Levian Bell, Frank Gore, and Michael p Ryan. UH love the draft pick of Denzel Mims Mickey Beckton. I think both of these teams are improved. But when the Jets were healthy last season, which was completely few and far between, I don't think they're nearly as bad as most of their

season appeared or played out. Um So, in my mind, these teams are much closer than a six and a half point spread. I would say this ought to be more like the standard field goal spread and not jump all the way to a touchdown. I'll take New York and the points New York Jets six and a half. Give the man six and a half against the Buffalo Bills, Todd number two, number three, your third pick. I'm kind of torn. I sort of like the idea of betting

against Mike Mularkey led Dallas Cowboys team. That's one place I might want to go, or the over in that Dolphins game. You know what, because we've already had We've already had a pick on that Cowboys game. I'm I'm gonna pass the Cowboys game, although I do I am with Brady on that l A. Rams team. I think the Cowboys are a joke as always. Um, let me go with Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots over the forty two?

Is that what you have? Gil? Forty two? Let's say here, hold on, hold onto, yes, sir, okay, I'm gonna go over the forty two in the Miami Dolphins Pats game. And here's why. With the Miami Dolphins, I get Ryan Fitzpatrick almost a Hall of Fame spread quarterback. I mean, the guy covers the spread like Tom Brady wins Super Bowls. But he they obviously were able to move the football last year against New England. I think they'll be able

to move the football against decimated out Patriots team. I think Miami can get you some points in this game. And the New England Patriots. You know Tom Brady, I mean, you know, you know Bill Belichick is sitting there thinking,

my new toy. Now, Cameron Newton. I don't know if you guys have ever heard of this guy, but he played for Auburn, and I believe that, you know, Belichick is gonna gonna coach him up with some kind of you know, for years and years and years he had Thomas Brady Clydesdale running quarterback slower than even me to get to the pizza. This guy was slow. Now he's got Cameron Newton, who's got to be a lot healthier, and he's got to be thinking I can run all kinds of fun stuff. And who knows what he and

Josh McDaniels have cooked up. I think they can move to football against the Miami Dolphins. And it's only forty two. Give me the over. Let's go points. Let's go points over forty two. Mikey final pick, Todd, what do you have on a number for Bears, Lions, side and total? Gil? I have forty two and a half as the total, and I have it uh three juiced heavily to the underdog. Is that what you have? Gil? The three is juiced heavily to the underdog. But I have forty three as

the official consensus. We'll go with forty three and plus three minus. Yep, I'm gonna play that game. Gil is my final pick. Over the forty three, Over the forty three. This is a This is a bad Bears team, all right. It doesn't get helped out by Mitchell Trabinski. The good thing for Mitchell Trabinsky is that Matt Patricia will play very very vanilla defenses. Mitchell Drabinsky will be able to move the ball down the field with a short passing game.

You know, he's not accurate at all when he goes deep down the field, but he does have some legs to him, and they'll have the ability to throw underneath in this game. I like the Lions, but I think that the Bears can put up seventeen as well, and so I'm gonna go over forty three here. And also a note, something that's equally as good this year is that you don't have to listen to my heavy breathing. Is that since Todd is at his mother's house, he

had to put clothes on. That's right. For those who don't know, Mikey and I get to actually do this on video with Todd, so we are regaled by his beautiful spelt body, thankfully, though still cloaked and clothes. My last pick is not gonna have any really deep dive analysis. Uh. Cleveland is the third pick. I'll take the points against Baltimore as long as this is over a touchdown. I'm

getting seven and a half here. I will take the Cleveland Browns the thinking just simply being that the subtraction of Freddie Kitchens is going to be a huge boon for the Cleveland Browns. Matty Humans who worked for the Veggas heads and Information Newey has a great nick name for Freddy Kitchens, Larry the Cable Guy, which I think is a great, uh great sort of image of what Freddie Kitchens brought to that ball club, which is not

much and was perhaps a detriment to the team. I also think with the continuity of Baker Mayfield and his teammates on offense, I think that this team will be matured. I hope Baker Mayfield is actually more matured heading into a new season. Sometimes I think he was a little about himself. I just think that this is a lot of points. But give me the seven and a half. If Baltimore beats me, you know, thirty four to nothing,

lesson learned. But I'll take my chances. In an NFL where I think, with no off season and no preseason games a little less contact than normally, it's a lot of points to give in any game, especially against the team as talented at least on papers the Cleveland brown So Cleveland plus seven and a half is my final pick teasers of the week. Now, if you recalled last year's megapod, I was spectacularly bad in six point teasers.

To Team six point teasers, Mikey, what do you recall my record being I exaggerated, but for a long time you were stuck on two wins. I think you were like one at one point before a flurry that got me to about five and eleven or whatever it was at the end. Um, all right, Brady to team six point teaser. Because obviously a lot of people like to

do teasers. I still think teasers, if done properly, are one of the best bets in the National Football League, if not the best, if you do them Stanford Wong Wise, that didn't work out last year, though, because all of mine were Brady, what's your teaser the week? Yeah? No, you're right, Gil. In fact, a member of my San Susy team who has an extensive casino background told me one time, and this is back in the day when teasers,

you know, we're minus one ten, maybe even at minus one. Uh. He felt a two team six point teaser is the very best bet you can make in the NFL. UM, And you guys know, I like the Falcons with the point spread of two. That's also a very advantageous number for a six point teaser, taking it up to eight or in this case eightan a half. So so that's

the first leg of my two team teaser here. The second leg is the forty Niners down to one and the Super Bowl loser angle here is a factor for sure, but I think that applies more so to this team covering the full seven points in the game. Uh, and also a gener role uh, you know, account of their success in a follow up season to losing the Super Bowl, not necessarily just winning this game. And I do think the forty Niners are a far better team than Arizona

the Cardinals. They grabbed everybody's attention this offseason acquiring DeAndre Hopkins all of a sudden, they were, you know, a challenger for the division. UM. I think this team still has holes on the offensive line, their defensive spotty at best, the secondary is getting older. I do think they're going to be a fun team to watch, and I think they'll be involved in some shootouts and this could be

one on Sunday. But I'm not ready to put them up and over San Francisco Seattle and Los Angeles in the division. And I know Arizona dis is a division dog here and and the Niners, you know, tend to struggle with mobile quarterbacks. But I think San Francisco has an excellent running game and the receiving corps I think is better than people think. People like to note the loss of Emmanuel Sanders, but they forget the draft choice of Brandon Aiyuk out of Arizona State, who I think

can be a real weapon. You've got Mostart Coleman and a finally healthy Jerick McKinnon, which is a sick Kyle shanahan type backfield. I think Javin kin Law is going to be an awesome player on the defensive line. And again, you know thirteen and three last year, a loss on the Super Bowl. I think in general San Francisco is a bit of a fade for me this season. I would go under their season win total um. But to win this game over Arizona, who I think is a

little bit overhyped this year. To win this game by two points, I think that's a good teaser play. Okay, Brady with the Falcons Niners two teams six point teaser by the way, for those who wondered what I was saying before Stanford wrong teaser. Stanford Wong is pseudonym for an author that wrote great gambling books in the past.

But the most positive e V teaser legs are short home of favorites that you get to tease through the three and the seven, short home dogs that you get to tease through the three and the seven, and home teams of us above a seven point spread where you can tease it back down through the seven and the three. Now that's in a normal year with no more normal

home field advantage. This is obviously a quirky year or home field advantage, if it's anything at all, is still to be determined, but that is historically what quality Stanford Wong teaser legs are. I will buck that momentarily and not use one of those. But um Brady's only right yours yours does apply in both cases, although although San Francisco gets you through the three really technically so yeah, not a perfect stand for the wall in the leg,

but almost perfect. Todd, what's yours? Okay, I'm gonna go. Also with the Atlanta Falcons, I like the Atlanta Falcons. We've talked about why I like the Atlanta Falcons. Brady's talked about why he likes the Atlanta Falcons. We're gonna get eight and a half points. I'll take it in Atlanta plus the eight and a half. For the second part of the teaser, I'm gonna take the New England Patriots. Um. I just think that the Paths have that thing in the back of their heads. They lost to this Miami

Dolphins team in a big game late season. Um. Like I said before, I think Belichick's got new uh toy and his candy store with um with the Camp Newton. So I think the Pats come out here and and all I've got to do is win the game. I'm on my half. Give me the Pats the second team in my two team team, all right, Atlanta in New England for Toddy Mikey, Did Todd know that we were doing this show today? Why is there so much folk angst about what his picks are gonna be? Didn't he

make them before we went on air? You a party like it's two thousand eleven and use both of them. I'm allowed to have angst, Mike, Okay, you're allowed to have the first week my turn, I didn't interrupt you when you talk. I'm gonna party like it's two thousand a lot. You can't take the under in the first year, Mike, you can't take the under in the first period in these picks. Sorry, Lady Cannon's top two picks. The Rams, let's teach ab update and a half and the Falcons.

Let's tease them up to eight and a half. And Todd's already talked about why Brady liked them, so I don't need to talk about Atlanta and who was the other team, Mikey, I'm sorry, and the Rams Atlanta and the Rams, oh, the Brady Cannon special um dare I make it all four of us who are taking the

Atlanta Falcons on these teasers? You know what that means? Yeah? Well, yeah, to some extent, it is so Atlanta teasing through the three and the seven two about eight and a half Atlanta plus eight and a half on one side of the teaser. My other side is actually not a textbook leg I'm taking the Indianapolis Colts and teasing them down through the seven and the three against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think this could be a historically bad football team.

They're obviously tanking for Trevor. All the are the Jacksonville Jaguars, and if the Colts just can't beat them, all I'm asking them to do is beat them. For goodness sakes, I deserve to be owing one on the teaser. So it's Indianapolis in Atlanta as my teaser of the week minus half, okay, because I see the Colts everywhere as eight? So are you sure? Give me minus one? Give me minus one, give me minus two? Yes, I'm sorry, give me minus two. Okay, I'm not holding you in contempt,

but I am still warning, okay, still warning everybody. Minus too. I'm sorry. I don't know what I was thinking. Right there, idyls minus too again. As long as it's under the three, that's my play, alright. I like Mikey's even though I don't like Mikey as a person. Do you like his pick with the Rams update? Now? All right? You didn't

like mine? Is that what you're telling me? I'm just saying that I wanted to say something nice about Mike because you know he's just he's a bad person and you can want to help him out of and you interrupted him five times first he was stenographer. Now is the judge, let's get as amazing. All right, last thing before the final two questions, Survivor pick of the week. Now, if any of us are still alive and Survivor late in the season, you are allowed not to give your pick.

But here week one, why not Brady if you were in a Survivor. By the way, are you in circus Survivor? Brady? Yes, I'm not that. That is really just not my ty key. As far as the style of NFL gambling, I'm not a Survivor guy. I've played a few times. I've come close, but I am not in Mike's contest. All right, what would it be if you were in Survivor? What would it be? Well, I have to preface this by saying I have not mapped out the entire sixteen seventeen week season.

What have you? Um So I'm not necessarily being strategic about who I'm going to pick this week. But I think the forty Niners are a good team to win this week. Um you know, I expressed my feelings there and my teaser play. Not sure if they'll cover the seven, but I think they win the game. That would be my uh my Survivor play this week. Mikey, just clarify for everybody the rules of Circus Survivor. You are allowed to use the same team more than once, yes or no?

And is it against the spread or is it straight up? Straight up? And you can only use the team one okay, and you have to use the Thanksgiving Day that's a week onto itself. So there's eighteen weeks all right, straight up. Cannot use a team more than once. I knew this, by the way, I just wanted to clarify. Okay, who do you have, Mikey. I'm using the Colts against the tanking Jaguires this week. That's exactly who I'm using Colts,

at least in one of my two entries. I'm taking the Colts because I wouldn't mind having them fall by the wayside in terms of being able not to use them again. That is, so I'm taking the Colts. Todd. Now, Mike, of course is going to give me a hard time for not being prepared. But nobody told me we were doing Survivor this year until the beginning of this phone call. So I like Brady, who is being intelligent and telling us that you have to map out the season so

you see who you're gonna need later. That's the only way to really play survivor correctly. But since you and Mikey didn't realize that, that's fine, No we did. We're just for god, I know you did. I'm just giving you a little dig. Calm down, Relax, relax, Okay. I'm going to take a team that comes by the name of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's right, the Stellars are back

with Danny Roethlisburger at the quarterback position. We're going into play Danny Dimes and yeah, I think Ben Roethlisburger sands the beard, gets it done, and who probably is gonna need them later nobody. I'll take the steel and they will let me have him. On M S G Plus Mikey, do you believe that it's amazing? I got serious? Yeah. Oh, All of a sudden, I'm gonna be unentertaining for now on I'm gonna go back to Todd. That was a very quick way of turning things against you. All of

a sudden. Look out the tables turned alur final two, final two questions he can dish he can't receive uh final two questions of all the big favorites on the board, which is the most likely in your opinion to lose outright? Otherwise known as what's the team that's gonna jack up your your money line favorite parlay? If that's how you choose to play the NFL, Brady, who's the big favorite that you are least likely to trust? And let let me define who these are? The Kansas City Chiefs nine

and a half point favorites against Houston tonight. Let's go with the six and a half because there's not enough to choose from. If I don't Buffalo six and a half over the Jets, New England six and a half over the Dolphins, Baltimore seven and a half over Cleveland, and San Francisco seven point favorites against Arizona. Did I skip the Colts Colts by eight over Jacksonville. Pardon me, Well, you're not gonna like hearing this, but that would be

my choice. The Indianapolis Colts. Um. I think they have a great deal of talent and really all over the field. I actually picked this team to win the division, but so much of their talent is brand new, including their most important piece, Philip Rivers at quarterback. So you guys know, training campus been basically a glorified zoom meeting. You have no preseason reps, and now all of a sudden, this team is supposed to just immediately gel and fire on

all cylinders in game one, week one. I I also don't believe in the tank theory on Jacksonville. I think we saw that with the Miami Dolphins last year and it didn't really come to fruition. Um. What the Jacksonville Jaguars have that the Colts don't is continuity. And you touched on this a little bit earlier, Gil, this is basically the same team, same coaching staff, a couple of

minor upgrades via the draft. Uh in Jacksonville. And also this Colts team, they are built for playing in the Dome with speed, and now they go to hot, sticky Florida. It's gonna be eighty eight degrees humidity on grass. I also think that COVID travel is different from traditional travel for road teams. This year, you've got a division game,

Division home dog. I think the Jags actually have a show. Okay, yeah, I mean we are Mikey and I are relying on Philip Rivers to survive in our survivor to in our survivor pool with that pick, Todd, biggest favorite, most likely news out right in your opinion, I'm gonna go with the Colts too. If you're going to go and talk about big faves, it could theoretically go down. I believe the Colts lost in Week sixteen to the Jacks last year to put them under the total of their season

win total. I mean, who was the Colts? Like? What's so special about the Colts? I don't think there's anything special about him in Philip Rivers is certainly not somebody who I think is a Hall of Fame quarterback. Mikey right that down, Mikey, Well, you know, the Colts have a to answer your question. Colts have a pretty spectacular offensive line in Jacksonville has lost players since then. News. That's why their favorite. Todd wishnev I only have outgoing,

but incoming. I cannot take incoming again. This is gonna be the new thing. Todd can't take anything blah blah black Mike, But Todd, what about the Houston oilers? How good were those oilers? You? Warren Moon could spin it. Maybe Warren Moon could spin it all right, I'm gonna take the Patriots as the favorite that could get upset. I think there's so many guys that have left that program. We really don't know what we're getting. I like Fitzpatrick, they were able to beat this team last year. I

give the Dolphins a shot to win this game. Yeah, and as you know, I'm already on the Dolphins. Patriots would be my selection as well, for all the reasons stated. We just don't know. They don't have players, Like how good do you people think Belichick is? I mean, you cannot overcome not having the players on the field. Stop it already, as I now cut to a shot of

me Sunday night, just shaking my head in dismay. If the Patriots question, uh, last question, if we were playing a bizarro game, pick Gil, what's your pick on the big favorite could move? Oh? My god? Did he was? He? Was he here New England? You you and Mike you like pets? Yes? I remember I had Miami earlier too, as as one of my best bets. Alright, final final question.

If we were in a Bizarro world and we had to pay it, I had to play a side rather in each of it, every one of these games, but we got one free pass one game that you wanted no part of on the side, Brady, what would it be? Well, I'm with you guys, leaning towards Miami versus New England with the points. But but I really don't know what to make of this team yet. And I really don't know what to make of New England. Uh So I'm just gonna wait and see. I do not have a

bet on that game. But the one I really want no part of is Tennessee versus Denver on Monday Night. And I know you guys really like the Titans, UM, and this is really not about the von Miller thing, but I'm not really sold on either of these teams. I think Mike Brabel is a great coach, he's improving year in and year out. UM. But I thought they caught a little bit of lightning in the bottle last year with Tannehill and Derrick Henry going nuts the second

half of the season. UM and the Drew lock point. Yeah, I mean, how good is this guy really? And all of a sudden, you know they're, you know, a contender for the division because he beat up on week competition the last four games. So I am not high on either of these teams. And I don't know who's going to show up if it's going to be a good or bad version on Monday night, so I'll stay a

long ways away. I'm glad you're the first guest this year, Brady, because you do see things a lot differently than I know I do heading into week one and we'll see, uh, who's uh on it most of the time, or who's been completely wrong, or maybe it'll just split down the middle. So I really appreciate the perspective Todd gave. You want no part of I want no part of the Cincinnati Bengals against the Los Angeles Chargers. What in the world is that? Who knows what you're getting with Cincinnati? Los

Angeles has lost their Philip Rivers. I have no idea is ekel are going to get stopped at the half yard line forty two times? An instant replace started me from winning up that. Who knows what's gonna happen? I don't want to I was. I was on the right side of that, meaning the winning side, let's not call it the right side. I was on the winning side of that. I was standing at the caso. That was

the cheating side. But I do believe there was the cheating side, and I said, I said to Uh, I can't remember who I was with, but I said to him, I was like, don't if I ever tell you, I don't get the you know, nothing good ever happens to me,

remind me of this moment. By the way, I'm more, I'm surprised that more people anecdotally right, I don't have the evidence on this, but I'm surprised that more people, just in in people I've talked to aren't on the Chargers like there does not There does not seem to be any Chargers love against a rookie quarterback playing his first game in the National Football League very interesting to me. Uh, mikey game you want no part of at How bad of the scheduling by the NFL that that's one of

the three late games? Just awful? Anyhow, I want no part of this Saints this game, just because I need to see this this Bucks team. I'm not necessarily sold on the hype. Is Tom Brady better than Jamis? I don't know. I mean he looked pretty bad the last two months of the season. Uh last year, um playing in the system that he's known for so long. Yeah, he'll have a lot more weapons, but his father time

going to catch up them. So I'm gonna take await and see approach on the bucks, probably for a few weeks and certainly this week. That's as good a choice as any. I ended up on Seattle Atlanta. I know I haven't landed my teaser, but to me, that is the most plinko ish game out there, um, meaning it could fall anywhere on the number. Seattle Atlanta would be my pick, but I would give Tampa Bay, New Orleans honorable mentioned as well. I agree with Mike too that

that one is really hard to figure out. Yeah, that's a tough one. Absolutely New Orleans favored by three. And I want to switch? Can I switch my teaser from Atlanta plus eight and a half two and Pats minus pointing a half two rams plus eight and a half in Atlanta plus eight half because I like the rams also, so can I switch of my pat side of my one of my Okay, isn't that what you had? Mikey? Also? That is what Mike. Yeah, you're glad to glad do

whatever you want, Todd wish Knev, whatever you want. I see your strategy, Todd, You're just gonna copy me on the teasers and tie for first because we know Gil has no job. Apparently you guys have never seen primetime action on MSG plus, where I can't miss thinking about moving to New York. Yeah, there you go. For Todd Wish, Deev and Mike Palm Staples on the show each and every weeker on the Megapod. And to Brady Cannon kind enough to join us for the first week each and

every year former Super Contest Champion. Thank you, gentlemen, appreciate it. It's Gill Alexander can't believe football is here. Very pumped. Enjoy good luck with all your bets stuff. Thanks for listening to the Megapod M