Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview

We're gonna get a circuit update from you boitarily. And on my left Todd wishing of from not only the Showtime docuseries Action, but Wednesday appearances on a numbers game. Todd more beloved by the day. Thanks for doing this, Todd, appreciate it. What's your what's your percentage? Now? In circle in the circuit contest? What do you? And one for a robot? Whereas Rufus would say completely random, I don't know,

let's find let's find out, what Rufus says. Making is a long away to return to the podcast after at least a few years away. We are happy to have him back. Ladies and Gentlemen's half of the Bet the Process podcast duo along with Jeff ma It's our old Fred Rufus. Paybody, what's happening to Rufus Guild? It's been a while. How are you doing, man? Where are you right now? I'm doing great. I'm in Boston. How do you like living in Boston? I went to school there

for four years. It's you know, it's growing on me a little bit. There's a lot of a lot of Patriots fans, so's we'll get used to that. Have you been through a winter yet? I have? It's not fun. I hope you brought a jacket. My freshman and senior years, it was minus forty wind chill. Well, luckily we have global warming now, so it's it's it's not quite as bad. I believe the correct phrases climate change. Allegedly, scientists are conflicted, you know how they say it? All right? Let me stop?

All right? So, Rufus, how is your football season going? How is your podcast season going? Are you and Jeff having as much fun as you always did with it? We we always have fun. We're like, you know, he's like my older brother or something. It's it's It's funny. It's funny that the feedback we get some people think it's you know, some people like more of that, some people like less of that. But but we enjoy it.

And and football season is has been very good for college it's been um, you know, more like less good for NFL right around break human. Yeah, I think that. I that's a common refrain that I that I hear from people, at least anecdotally. The NFL has been I mean weird is look and even teasers at least as we've shown on this show have not gone as well as we haven't have had them go in the past seasons. We'll find out how we do today before we do any of that. Mike Palm Circus Sports Update. Who's in

the lead, how big is their lead? How far back is Todd? Well? Uh so? Overall for the contest, there's one entry at twenty seven point skill out of a possible Um, where are we at seven thirty five? Yeah? Um? And then one entry at twenty six point five, four entries at twenty six, two at twenty five I believe, nine at twenty four and a half, and another eleven at twenty four. How many do you have Todd how

many points I have? Twenty one and a half. He's a lot, you're tat You're tied for a hundred and thirty third. In fact, your name appears amongst the fifty seven people at twenty one point five when you scroll through the results. Look at you, Toddy, how about that t Wish and nev one? There you are now as far as the second quarter, which we wrap up this weekend, yes, we're another hundred and forty three thousand, seven fifty. We have two entries at thirteen, we have seven entries at

twelve and a half, and another sixteen at twelve. So there's twenty five entries within one point of the lead here as we come into the final week of quarter two. And again, for those who don't know, the circuit contest features as one of their sort of staples quarterly contests for or a hundred forty seven thousand dollars, is it turned out you can try and get in November, you

can try and get in December. On this the record and quarter one that one was seventeen and three and that was a solo winner, right, yeah, seventeen and a half. I think maybe it was seventeen and three. But that's the surprising thing was that it was a solo winner. Yea, so it's odd. You know, we had one push and quarter one. Now we had another push last week and quarter two. So it'll be interesting though. I I find the long shot as if we'd have another solo winner. Yeah,

I would think that's the case. It's always interesting, you know, we were talking about this on the show the other day, how everything in in sports betting is its own discipline and pre flop. You know, a TS National Football League is its own thing with I guess its own. Some might say, you know, it's not a skill, some might say it's random. But you know, James Selinas, who I always go back on. He won the Super Contest one year, he finished third, the next year, finished twenty six the

couple of years later. He's about the only guy in modern history that I can sort of say that about where he's been able to be consistent over time. But even as we point out, that's still only what over two hundred and forty some picks over three seasons, so even that could be subject to randomness. Even though he's told us his method, and he watches a lot of game film and so who knows, but um, that's the story. Anybody can catch lightning in a bottle in a four

week period, that's for sure. Certainly hasn't happened to me. Todd, we had a shot, but that we we craped out week two of this particular month. So we'll keep that monitored. Before we get into our best bets of the week, gentlemen, let us do Thursday night football real quick, because people want to hear about that first. If you don't have an opinion, no biggie Minnesota Vikings sixteen and a half point favorites against the Washington Redskins rufus favorite team along

with mine. If we can't even say that anymore, rufus, So you're still an Orioles fan, not a Nationals fan, right, so you feel nothing about this Nationals run in the

World Series. Not much. You know, I actually wanted them to win that Wildcard game when they were losing, um, just because I was like everybody, all these Nationals fans have had a lot of heartbreak in the playoffs over the years, and so now that they're on the cusp of winning the World Series, I'm not sure how I feel that, and I'm not sure how we feel about the Redskins at this point. Either the fandom has been beaten out of us. I would imagine, honestly, I'm rooting

for defeat. Um, I'm rooting for embarrassment. I'm rooting for anything that will result in systemic change in that organization. I agree with that wholeheartedly. Viking sixteen and a half point favorites tonight. Some people will, by narrative, call it the Kirk Cousins revenge game. It's equally the case Keenum revenge game, I would imagine, and Adrian Peterson making it returned in Minnesota. But the Redskins aren't very good at football and the Vikings uh seem to be quite good

at it on both sides of the football. Kirk Cousins even doing his Redskins stats thing now in the box score. But sixteen and a half is a lot of points, rufus, we start with you. Any thoughts tonight on the side or the total. It is a lot of points. And unfortunately I happen to like the Redskins here. Um, I think it. The lines actually up to seventeen in some places. Now I make it thirteen. It's it feels it's not

the kind of game I like taking. Um. I feel like I've been on these big underdogs way too much and the NFL we we you know, there's a lot of parody, um, but there's also a few teams that are really bad. But at the same time, I don't think they're The Redskins are seventeen points worse. UM with case team at quarterback who I do think is the best quarterback to win right now on that Redskins roster. What does worry me is that Kirk Cousins does seem

to play well. Um. And this is just anecdotally. He seems to play well against the bad teams like he You know, the Vikings blow out the teams that they're supposed to beat. UM. That happened against the Raiders earlier. They beat the Eagles at home, um pretty handily. And so I'm hoping, um, I'm hoping against the Redskins keep it close while somehow still being embarrassing. And you're not required to watch the Redskins on your bet in this football game. You just sort of look away and see

if it works out in the end. You did make a bet on this though, you did? Actually I did, Okay, Um, Mike any thoughts here tonight. It's actually my third best bet this game is under forty two tonight. Biill Callahan, who when he took over Nebraska thought it prudent to take a program that had run the ball for sixty years and as seventy at the time, now wants to run the ball seventy percent at the time now that he's taken over this Redskins, And I don't know if

I necessarily blame him. Here's why I like this under. You have two quarterbacks that played for the other team. Who knows Keenam better than Zimmer. He had him for a year and went to the NFC title game with him. Didn't think they were good enough with Keenum. So I think that Zimmer knows Keenum well. Hopefully the Redskins organization knows Kirk Cousins well. Uh. In the same like, you should be prepared for both these quarterbacks. I agree with Rufus.

I think it's too high of a number. I'm gonna play this game and live bets as a parlay with the Redskins and the under. But for what for my best bet? Third best bet this week under forty two? All Right, we can already mark that down from my third best bet under forty two Thursday Night Football. I like the SMU game better, by the way, as a bet, I'll take SMU. I'll lay the fourteen. Todd, what do

you think here? I don't want any part of the game, but I would say that it's very possible that the Vikings get out to a huge lead, run the ball incessantly in the second half, and then Washington down twenty three, comes down and get the back door to lose by sixteen. So I don't want any part of it. In any way. I don't want any part of it either, but that

that's a good point, you know, to Mike's under. The Vikings have had a couple of games this year, and most notably, perhaps the first game of the season against the Falcons, Kirk Cousins dropped back a grand total of eleven times through ten passes. I think there was a subsequent game Todd and I were talking about this morning.

We think it was the Oakland game where they really were like, we're running and that's all we're doing, so they're capable of really taking the air out of the ball for sure, Rufus, I saw you leaning in on my smu comment you had something to say there? Oh, yeah, you know I took uh, I took Houston there. I know they have Deeric king is is is out but and I think he's worth a lot. But I mean,

I couldn't resist when I got fourteen and a half. There, I understand Dana Holgersson is so bad though, such a bad coach. Did you watch the Houston Yukon game last week? I didn't un should have won the football game out? Yeah that's that's bad. But I mean, did you watch Wisconsin Illinois? Do we think Ellinois is a better team than Wisconsin? Yeah, so go yourself, Todd. All I'll say is I just I can't stand Houston. I just can't stand him. But I hope you win. Oh great, thanks,

that's very nice of you, Todd. Yeah that means you hope. Rufus. If you followed Todd's work, you'll know he's a real slave to recency. Also know you can you can get thirteen and a half with Actually, you know, I got a bookmaker. I got it at thirteen, so I'm only land thirteen there. Yeah, but thank you, so Gil, like Gil, we have so we have we have a nice medal between us. That's right, that's right. We have a nice meddal fourteen points. We're all winners. That's what we're like, SMU.

First half, alright, s first half? Little college football? All right, So let's do the best bets, Mike. We already have uh, your number three best bet, but rufus, let's start with your best bet in the NFL week Gate either side or total, sir um, unfortun only, I'm gonna have to go with the Bengals plus thirteen and a half points. This is I've been on the Bengals way too much, just like I've been on the Broncos way too much. So far, They're They've been bad. Um. Their offensive line

play has just been absolutely horrendous. They grade is the second worst pass blocking in the league. Um. And while I expect and to continue to be bad, I don't expect them to be like to be quite as bad. Um. But who are the Bengals? I mean, going into this season, we thought they were we knew them pretty well. The team with an average is quarterback in Andy Dalton, who wasn't gonna win you games on his own, but with an adequate supporting cast. Um good and the supporting cast

hasn't really been there this year. I mean, obviously they haven't had an offensive line and they haven't had one in the last three seasons. But their skill position players, um have not you know, been as good as in previous years. And Andy Dalton has not played as well as he had in the past. But the thing is he has he's he's an NFL quarterback. I mean he's not. Um, he's not. I'm trying to come up with an example of he's not Keith Null or any you know, not Hodges.

He's not. He's not. He's not. But so so I just think, um, you know, obviously, the Dolphins are this sort of historically bad team that with with really really very little talent um across the board, and I don't think the Bengals are that team though. Um, if you look at the Rams, the Rams are are pretty you know, they're okay it offensive tackle, but their offensive line, the interior of their offensive line is just as bad. If um, it's actually worse than the Bengals and worse than any

other team with the exception of the Dolphins. So also, if you look so far this season, the Bengals, they've been outscored by eleven point eight points per game. But based on my game grades, they've played to an expectation of only UM of only minus seven and a half points a game, so that that kind of that translates to UM over twenty points. That they've been kind of unlucky. And so honestly, this game is largely based on UM. It is largely based on the prior, the fact that

I don't think that Cincinnati is as bad as they've shown. UM. If you like, if you like the sort of narrative that under a new coach it takes time to adjust, which UM, I feel like we've we've heard that with the Packers, right, and and the adjustment to a new offensive system with about the floor. Uh, you know, we haven't really heard that with the Bengals. But if you believe that narrative, you think that maybe the Bengals will improve a little bit as the season progresses. Either that

or they'll just give up. So I'm on the Bengals plus thirteen a half. I've been on the Bengals a couple of times on the road this year, and they have gotten They've gotten the cover a couple of times. Uh, they'll try to do that again here as a road dog catching thirteen at the Rams early game on Sunday. By the way, there are you know, always tracking if the NFL gets this right, there are eight early games and there are excuse me, nine early games in three

afternoon games. So we're, yeah, we're subjected to that kind of schedule in the NFL at least, it's not the ten to variety. By the way, Baltimore in Dallas, the two teams on buys this week, Mike Palm best, but number one. Well, I agree with Todd on this on this premise, and we used them last week. We're going to use them again. I don't understand why the market is not recognizing the difference between Fitzpatrick and rosen Um.

It's stunning that that the totals will move but the sides won't move, when when we know Fitzpatrick is playing Um, this still is the Steelers team without a great defense. It's still is the Steelers team that doesn't want to let Mason Rudolph and I'm assuming he plays throw the ball down field, They're gonna go with a lot of short passes in the rounds. That type of a run based offense. We saw the Dolphins against a very good Bills defense last week, be able to sustain drives and

run the ball and move the chains. I just think fourteen is way wide here. I went to your point, guilt when when you guess numbers on games. Yeah, I thought this game was more like an eight or an eight and a half. I couldn't believe it's two touchdowns. I'll take the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. It's fortune half. Give him the extra half fortune and a half. You get the hook. I will say this, and for those who didn't listen to Guessing Lines, because I think it's

probably a similar audience. But and thank you, by the way to everybody who listens to it in podcast form after we air it on Visa, because still great numbers on Guessing Lines, people will find that show as great as they've always done based on the numbers. So thank you to everybody. But that was not only my worst guest of the week, and by worst, I mean furthest Off. Let me not call it worst. It was not only

my furthest Off guest of the year. It is my furthest Off guests in the history, the nine year history of Guessing Lines. I had seven and a half. Fourteen is where it's posted. I've never been that far off on a number ever. Guessing now, listen, my number might not be right either, but it certainly shouldn't be fourteen.

There's no justification for it. And Todd, you and I were on the air last week again when Brian Flores said, we're going with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it's not gonna be Josh Rosen and that number against the Bills stayed put the whole way through its seventeen. That doesn't make any sense to me. This number doesn't make any sense to me, despite the fact that it's prime time and it's in Pittsburgh and any other narrative you want to associate with it. Give me the points. That's my first best bet as

well on the Dolphins. I'll take the fourteen in a hook. Happily. By the way, the Dolphins should have won the football game. If they get it in there and to go up twenty one nine instead of throwing the pick, they're probably gonna win up twelve. It should also be noted that we barely got the cover two because it could have been a very unlucky push. Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbles at the end right and the Dolphins happened to land on it at their own five, so you know, it was Dolphins

doing Dolphins things at the end. There's always that to worry about. That was after on Site's kick return for a touchdown, which is the new thing, the new rage. All of a sudden that that was great. I had the I had bills second half, so minus eight and a half. So that was that saved me a fourtuitous turn of events for you. Wait, I didn't do my first best bet. My best bet. It's gonna be just to just to make it a little more entertaining, I'm gonna go with over forty five and a half in

the Tampa Tennessee game. And here's why. I think. First of all, that Tampa Bay is a great over team this year. They really are are. You know, they can be explosive on offense, but defensively they're an absolute dumpster fire. And now that Tanne Hills in the game instead of Mariota, I feel like Tennessee has a little bit more firepower throwing the football, so I think they'll be able to

move the ball and score some points against Tampa Bay. Now, Tennessee's defense is pretty good, but Tampa Bay has the ability to score pretty much on anybody as well, So to me, forty five and a half's a little too low. I'm gonna go over forty five and a half for my best bet. What's trippy about this podcast this week

is that I have a visual on Rufus. So Rufus is tech savvy enough where I can actually see him right so, not only by the ways he's wearing a very nice shirt which is black and checkered, checkered, black and gray, but he's got a state of the art microphone. Is that a blue? What is that, Rufus? That's very nice microphone. It is a blue, Yeah, very nice. I got enough bad feedback on my sound quality over the years with with some crappy microphone. I had that the

process podcast that I finally invested in a good one. Yeah, that's a that's a nice one right there. But in having the visual on Rufus, I can see his reactions to certain comments and making that he takes notes, so you obviously had a reaction to what Todd was saying there. Well, I think you know, my second best bet is gonna might be the other side there, So I'll get into that later. Okay, I think I think it's time for your second best bet, because we've gone around the horn one.

So what is your second best bet? So it is the Tampa Bay Tennessee under forty five and a half. And there you go, and why and why would you? What would you say? Why you I make I make the number forty two and a half. And and that's They could change a little based on whether there is it's they're supposed to be old drizzle. Um, it's a dreary day in Nashville, So if there is rain, um,

I'll have that slightly lower as well. But but this is essentially a matchup of a slightly above average offense in in Tampa Bay versus a slightly above average UH defense and UM in Tennessee. And then a bad offense against a bad defense. So Tampa Bay is a pretty past friendly offense. They passed eighth most or expect them too relative to expectation. Tennessee is kind of the other end of the spectrum UM in the twenties. But and

especially with UM, I mean with Tanna hill Um at quarterback. Now, they I do think that you may see a little bit more UM more Derrick Henry. But Tampa has some high scoring games basically because their offense can put up garbage time points when they're down. And and Jamis Winston, his you know, is known to give some gifts to the opposing teams. But Um Tampa's lab three defensive touchdowns. I feel like there's this narrative that Winston is, um

is going to give a lot of points. You score a lot of points, but give up a lot of points to himself. But three interceptions and pick six is um so Tampa. So so yeah, they've allowed three defensive touchdowns and they've turned the ball over more than twice a game. And yes, Winston is that guy. Um, he's not really going to change who he is. I don't think at this point. He's a guy that he holds the ball a long time, which results in big place but it also results in a lot of sacks and

it results in Um interceptions. It's, you know, you have to take the bad with the good. But what what is interesting so far is that his average interception this year has come from ball snapped his own thirty five yard line, while Tampa's average offensive snap has been from

the fifty yard line. So Um in the last three years, the average interception has been from a team zone forty yard line, so there's not really so so in a way, those interceptions that Winston has thrown has ended up costing UM, have ended up being over helping interceptions rather than like a red zone interception, which is gonna be an under helpy interception. So UM, isn't the sample size small? Rufus. Of course, the sample size is small for that UM,

or for for Winston's interceptions this year. I'm saying that so far this year they've helped be over and so it makes it makes Tampa they look like they're higher scoring team. It makes their games look like they're higher scoring UM than they fundamentally should be. The other thing is he's thrown you know, of his interceptions have been pick six is this year. UM the league average is eleven percent, and with Winston's historical rates ten point three percent,

So you're not gonna see UM. I think the sort of narrative that that Winston is the Winston's style of play leads to more points isn't doesn't necessarily bear out in terms of UM, you know, predictively, so eat it. Okay, Well, I'm not making the bet off of Winston. I just think he's a bonus. But I'm just basing it on the fact I think, may I think um with with Um instead of Mariota um in there, I think they're going to be able to move it on Tampa Bay.

And I think Tampa Bay's offensive decent. So we will see who is correct on this one. So, so, do you think Tannehill is a better quarterback than Marietta? Unfortunately, I kind of think yes. So I have Tannehill graded substantially worse than Mariotta. I think that's probably a big part of it. In fact, Um, I think with Mariotta in there, I wouldn't this may not be a play

for me. See that. That's when we were we were debating that on air this morning, when we were talking about this game, because Tannehill in his one game back right one game, he was throwing the ball in tight quarters. He was making these passes that were pretty incredible given how his receivers were being covered. But I did say on the air, I'm like, is this sustainable? You know?

Is it was that just an aberrational thing? We're like, Wow, tanneh Hill stuck that one into Oh my god, he made that past two And I don't know the answer to that, Like I don't have like supreme confidence in that. I just know that Mariota's one skill set was he didn't turn the ball over at all, which was just a pretty good skill set to have in the NFL. That don't get you through a lot of years. Obviously, his performance deteriorated recently that he that he's seen the bench.

But I'm not so sure if I buy into Tannehill either. I think Mariota is he's a John Fox quarterback. He's he's a guy who's gonna give you, know, you know, keep the turnovers down, but he's not explosive. I think Tannehill will probably give you more turnovers, but he's a little more explosive. What I mean, I haven't looked at this, but what was his sort of average depth of target when he was with the with with the Dolphins, I kind of if I remember correctly, he didn't throw a

ton downfield? Did he? I think he did yea more so more so then than we saw last week for sure. He also he also rant like back with the with the fence, he he ran the ball decent amount, so we'll see if we see that post injury. All right, So you guys are apo on that one. Uh Todd is over and you are under rufus. That's what we got down here. That's correct, all right. Mike palm Mike Palmieri,

Mike Palmetto, what is your number two pick? I'm a recent believer in this team, and I didn't know that if Jacobe Rissette could take a team to the playoffs um um. But as this sees and has worn on and they've played through injuries, I've become more and more impressed with the Colts. I think this is a good spot for them. Second consecutive home game. There's a big coaching mismatch here. I think Reich is just so good. I like their red zone defense. Uh Flacco um has

either he was never that good or he's deteriorated through age. Um. He just doesn't sense any pressure in the pocket. He's like a statue back there. I'm not impressed with this Broncos offense. I don't think they're gonna put up a ton of points. I'll lay under a touchdown here. Five and a half. With the Colts at home in the late game against Denver, I'm not sure Flacco is alive

part of the time. Listen. I I don't want to mimic every one of your picks here, Mike, but people have guessing lines to go to so that they know I'm not making it up right now as we go. But this was one of my best bets in terms of just being more incredulous about the line. Now. Nothing was like the Pittsburgh Miami line. And there's another one

that I thought was further off too. But if you're giving me less than a touchdown here on the Colts at home with Jacoby Brissette, uh, the very ball conscious again, Jacoby Brissette with a minimum and I think it was like a two hundred or I can't remember what the minimum passes is, but whatever that minimum is, he's historically good in terms of protecting the football. Again, that sample sizes smaller than it will be as we move forward.

But I'm not impressed with the Broncos at all, and I think the Colts are a sneaky good football team. I'm with you, I'm taking the Colts. I'm laying the six and a half or whatever it is right now, as long I think it's five and a half now, uh five and a half in this game, it's going down a little. So I'm doing that as well. Rufus, I know you've been on the Broncos. You said this earlier on the show. That's kind of been your team, perhaps to your to your ultimate dissatisfaction. But you you

like the Broncos. Here do I'm I took the Broncos at plus six earlier in the week. I just I mean, I think they have I have the Broncos is basically an average team. Um, I think you know, obviously Flacco looks really bad. I agree, Um, but they have their defense is good. Um, they you know in the trenches there. Well, their offensive line did not. I'll be honest. Their offensive line lived pretty awful last week. But a lot of that was was Flacco and the fact that, I mean,

sacks are mostly a quarterback stat. But now I'm trying to look at my my line numbers for the Broncos. Here. Would this be one of your three best bets? Or this is just a random bet? You have? No? No, this is this is like, honestly, I didn't see a lot of value on the card this week, but Bengals and Broncos or two, UM, And I'll be honest, I think that um right now, you know, the game of football is changing a little bit, and I do think my priors in a way are maybe overfit to a

different era. And and you know, you have the you have two quarterbacks and like Flacco and Dalton who have a lot of experience, they have a lot of starts, and in general, guys that have have a lot of starts, UM get those starts because they're good quarterbacks, because they

you know, they played well in the past. And even you know, and so I think that you know, guys like guys like Breeze, Roethlisberger, UM, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, guys that like have played a long time, UM kind of have in a way shaped these prior shaped the sort of experience factor in my priors, whereas

you know, you don't. And so as a result, like a guy like Joe Flacco or someone like Andy Dalton is in a way I think probably gonna be a little bit over inflated my numbers just because of um that sort of experience fixed effect UM in in my model. So yeah, no, I actually think that's a great discussion. We kind of delve into that on a numbers game on Visa and Series Sex and Channel two a four weekday mornings Monday through Friday, seven and nine Pacific tend

a noon easter. We do that quite often, not not often, but every once in a while. I will make this point about the difference in betting, say baseball antennis versus the National Football League Baseball in tennis, to me feel very logical and very cerebral based on numbers Visa via the betting line in the NFL. And this is not exactly what you're saying, but it's sort of a cousin of what you're saying akin to it, which is, you know,

also the coaching differences. For me, and I always say this with the NFL, that if you could only have one, if one tool was at your disposal, just one in picking NFL games, and it was just that you power ranked coaches, if that was the only thing at your disposal, you might do better betting the NFL then running through numbers anymore. Because the difference the chasm between the half and the have nots in the NFL and specifically with the coaches is so vast now that it almost diminishes

the importance of your numbers. Sometimes I don't know if I'm making if I'm articulating that well, but just sort of throw that out there, rufus No, that makes a ton of sense. And Frank Reich is an amazing coach, you see. I mean he'll go for it in the first quarter at his own forty yard line on fourth and two, which is which is what he should do. And so I completely agree. And I think the hardest thing to do in the NFL is to sort of distinguish the value of the quarterback versus the the offense

surrounding him and versus the scheme he's in. UM and so UM. And then when you add on you know, what what coaches do in game, we can sort of see the value of coach can add with good in game decisions. That's kind of what you see when on Twitter, uh, you know, discussions of um, you know, mistakes by coaches. It's generally bad in game decisions that we can quantify.

But um, what we what's a lot harder to gauge is the value of a coach schematically, because I think for years, like Andy Reid is a guy that was awful with clock management. But you know, he seemed to his schemes are always good. He always you know, he was I guess great in the locker room, motivating players and all that, and so his his teams would would would do really well. So I mean, that's of course, it's it's definitely I agree Gill. It's it's something that's

that's hard to do and coaches do matter. By the way, I just looked up Flacco's numbers this year on you know, Pro Football Focus actually has graded him out as an above slightly above average quarterback this year. So far, stop

it stop appropriate. Yeah, that's the correnable, that's the corruptible numbers the factor when these models, you know I love models, it's not okay, well what however, they Pro football whatever you ranking you just called, they have some type of uh way of figuring out who they called above average quarterback. And all I'm saying is whatever the numbers are that they're plugging in, it's numbers in, numbers out, and if they're shitty numbers in, your shitty numbers out, and if

they're good numbers in, they're good numbers out. So I don't I don't agree with that ranking of of Flacco is slightly above average. I mean personally, I don't. I don't see how I haven't watched every snap, but um, which what what what their rankings are, That's what their rankings are based on. They literally grade out each throw and each play and say like, it's a bunch of humans doing this. Well, so my humans may be better than you're. They're humans, so right, every I've watched every snap,

so I can't. I cannot call Joe flag I best. I can call him average. I cannot call him above average. I mean that, I mean that's what he is. What you're really asking Todd is have they seen his face in any of these games? Because not only does he appear to not care while he's on the field, I'm not sure he's alive. I really don't believe. Like some of the times, I'm like, dude, check if that dude has a pulse, like he just where's the passion in this?

Like it's like I'm not putting my money behind this guy, And that's when that's when you're you're human. Eye test is like, I can't do this anymore. It corrupts. Uh, you know, I don't know what for a football focus is doing to determine that. But I'm kind of with you on that, Todd. Maybe you're maybe your human brain is better than theirs in this case. I I don't know whether I am or whether I'm not, but come on now, um, I do want to agree with Rufe

I'm not making this one of my picks. But is that by the way, I've only given one pick because that Rufus is official third pick Denver plus five and a half. Yes, Rufus has three and Mike and I already have two, so you're behind here. I'm gonna come out looking like an idiot at the end of this week. It's gonna be great. No, I'm I'm I'm gonna I'm

not gonna take Denver as one of my picks. But I do want to say that I leaned to Rufus and against you and Mike Gil because I think that Indianapolis is coming off a big win, uh and Denver is coming off an absolute ass whooping against the Chiefs, and I never want to have the team that just looked great against the team that just looked horrendous, So

to me, I would have to lean Denver. The other thing that sticks in my mind is the Raiders going into Indian running it all over them, and I don't see why Denver couldn't be able to run it and then keep it close late. So I'll lean with Rufus on on Denver against you and Mike. But I'm not going to use that as any of my picks. But now do you want me to give you my second pick? Please? Okay,

my second pick. Oh and by the way, Rufus, I loved what you said about Andy Reid schematically because I was saying that today on a numbers game when when we were saying Kansas City getting three and a half. I love Mahomes. I think he's you know, it's a little too soon to make him Jesus. He's not that great. He's fantastic, but he's not Jesus. So Andy need schematically with all those um with all those weapons. Is you know,

I think it's too many points with Green Bay. I'm not gonna use that one either, but I still think Green Bay is is giving too many points to Kansas City because Andy Reid is a great schemer. So I totally agree with you on that. You know, you know what, you should go through the whole schedule and give us all your leans except for your best bet, and then

finally get to your best bet. That was just two points that I wanted to make that you guys were just discussing, though, Todd, I think that's a great point with Andy Reid. I mean, look what he did with Alex Smith exactly. But Gil Gil likes to get on me and Mike likes to get on you know, both of them are they're they're just what hards is. What can I tell you now? My second pick, I'm gonna go with a team that we all know and love.

It's called the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins plus fourteen and a half. We've already discussed it ad nauseum. Mason Rudolph is gonna throw that little dinker ball. And what does Pro Football Focus say about his point five against Cincinnati when he didn't throw the ball more than two yards down the goddamn field. So I don't want to hear about rankings and this bullshit that these people talk. Oh, Mason Rudolph was twenty five, He was fantastic. No, he wasn't.

I could have thrown those little dinker ballsy, hold on, hold on, you asked the question, brufus, do you have that in front of you? I can pull it up. I'm pulling it up right now. I'm curress. I just think this is a good reference because I was I was curious with the flak of how bad he actually had been and um no, actually that's the one game

that Rudolph graded above average. Again, guess what anybody could have done that if you watched that game stats lie, every single play was there was the wide receiver running in motion, snap it to Rudolph, He throws it one and a half yards to the guy and he runs around the end. And Cincinnati couldn't figure it out. So I don't want to hear about Mason Rudolph. Give me. Will Miami be able to figure that out? Though? Well? I just I just think that Miami's defense is is

not as bad as people think it is. It's it's not good. I'm not saying it's good, but I'm not saying it's as bad as people think it is. Remember, this is a team that went to Buffalo yesterday and I mean last week and should have been up to nine. This team is not that horrendous. If fits can not be bad fits, granted, if Fits his bad fits, and he throws eighteen interceptions like he's wont to do at times. Yeah,

we're gonna go down and smoke. But if Fits can play an adequate game, manage the game played decently, we're not getting beat by fourteen and a half by the Pittsburgh uh Tow Waivers. Okay, Miami plus fourteen and a half Miami Dolphins. Okay, So Mike, me and you are all on the Dolphins, Rufus is on the Bengals, and the Broncos say poo poo platter on this podcast. We could all look terrible after this, but we shall see. Uh, Mike Palm, you haven't given a third pick? Right, yeah?

Under forty two Minnesota ends. Since Rufus and I have already given our third pick, it's time for Todd to give two more leans in his third pick. All right, Todd, you go ahead, you give you a third Okay, I will give you my third best bet, and I'm going to go with the Caral line up Panthers, Riverboat ron I like this football team. I think they're flying a little bit under the radar. I think the San Francisco

forty niners well very good. Have had a bunch of good games in a row before the slop game, and I like getting good teams with more. I mean San Francisco and Carolina. Here they're saying that San Francisco is three points better on a neutral field, which is why there's six point favorites in this game. And I do not think there's three points difference between San Francisco and Carolina. Maybe one, maybe two. I don't think San Francisco's worth three more on a neutral field. So I like the

Carolina Panthers. I think Alan, as long as he doesn't make too many mistakes, he can throw a nice ball out there. I like their offense with keek Lely, of course, I get the little running back who can run for you know, Miles and Miles. I think that Carolina will be able to at least control the Niner running game to some extent. Six points is a ton of points in the National Football League game. When two adequate teams

are going against each other. I'm gonna go with Riverboat Ron and the Carolina Panthers plus the six Thanks for the showmanship. Also, ton on that, are you worried that Kyle Allen's fumble luck is just off the charts. You know, you love to get on this Island guy for his fumbles. I remember seeing one of them was totally not his fault. He got smashed in the back where he didn't All right, we'll take that off the shot. But the fact is

that their fumble luck has been really good. So I mean that just that just gives me a moment of pause, is all I'm saying. Okay, Well, I mean, look, fumble luck can go both ways. What's the Niners fumble luck. I don't know of fan, but it's not as as fortunate as that of the of the Carolina Fathers. By the way, the slop at FedEx Field, can we just talk about that for saying, how is it that they cannot get this right? Like even in great conditions at

FedEx Field. That's they always complain about how difficult that field is to maintain. It's like, oh, the mid Atlantic region of the country. What's so difficult about the mid Atlantic? Sod? Like, I don't understand that. And that was a slop field. Uh, And the Redskins end up being the second team in the last twenty five years to score no points and cover the spread against the Niners. So you're on the

Panthers um or any of these dogs. By the way, is anybody sprinkling anything on the money line on any of these dogs? And we're just doing this a t s personally and I'm not I'm not putting anything on money lines just because, um it's it's you know, I'm trying to get full limits earlier in the week, so I understand maybe later in the week you don't piss anybody off at this point. My third, by the way,

is the New Orleans Saints. I realized this is, uh, well, let me tell you how much it is right now. New Orleans is a ten point favorite. I get ten, ten point favorite, ten and a half most places skill now no, yeah, it's it's ten consensus, I think, yeah, I see ten minus one away ten minus one oh five. Uh, it's ten. H New Orleans given ten against Arizona. This

was my second most off guests of the year. Again, this is one of these weird years which has never happened before with these guesses where I am authentically way off the numbers on some of these, and so this was I was four points off on this. I thought this should be fourteen points. Arizona comes off a win over the Giants. The Giants are dreadful. The week before Arizona got by Atlanta, Atlanta is not doing anything big.

And in that game against Atlanta, Arizona had not one, not too but at least three instances in that game where they got the benefits of calls that could have just as easily gone against them and really determined the outcome of that game. Obviously, Matt Bryant missing an extra point at the end did as well, and and Kyler Murray uh sort of up and down, sort of a choppy early regular season. I don't know if they found something in Chase Edmonds or not. I'm not gonna read

too much into it. But the New Orleans Saints, whether it's Bridgewater or Breeze here, and I think it's should be Bridgewater because I don't know why the Russian drew Brees back with a by coming up. I thought they said it was playing. Breeze is playing? Now? Is that the word that I thought I thought they were saying the Breeze said he was gonna play, But I don't Maybe I'm wrong. I thought Jeff Parls said that this morning. Did he let me check on that? While we go

through this, but uh, I'm taking the I'm taking the Saints. Look, I know it's ten points. I know you're not gonna make a huge profit long term doing this as a rule in the NFL. But I think they're a vastly better football team. Uh. They did what they did against the Bears supposedly vaunted defense last week without Alvin Kamara, without Jared cook Um. Give me the Saints. I'm laying the points. And if I don't cover here, tip of the cap to the Cardinals. Some bet you have to

be willing to lose. This would be one of them. As Mike would say, he doesn't want to hear my leans, but I'm leaning with you. If Breese plays, I definitely like that. And I just googled it, and yeah, Breese says he expects to play, apparently according to ESPN. And so that didn't move either, right on that news that's sitting right where it is. So was the game even whendn't like it wasn't even on the board at a

lot of places for a while. Oh, it was up from the beginning, I thought from Monday anyway, So I'm seeing like Pinnacle didn't post anything till yesterday. Afternoon or evening. All right, we had a bunch of lines. I saw it. I saw it on the board at south Point all week. Yeah, I haven't my spreadshee just blank. Same with the Carton or same with the Falcons game. The Falcons game is

still blank where I am. I don't see if I don't see a number in that game anywhere between Seattle and because we don't know if it's Matt Ryan or not. Half on bed online at six and a half. Yeah, that's the only Yeah, it's the only place. Probably not, probably not for very low limits. Support for today's beating the book podcast comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot eu. I have been saying it all season long. I will continue to say it. The Bookmaker dot eu

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right now, don't miss out Teaser of the week. Now, let me just say this the you know, oh stand for long. These aren't really working out this year. But let's give a two team six point teaser of the week. If you want to make it six and a half or seven points, we'll let you do that as well. Um, but rufus. If you were forced to make a two team tease play, which would it be for you this week? I mean there's really only one option. Um is Tampa Bay from two and a half to and half? And

I tease? Um? Where are they the Philadelphia Eagles from two and a half to eight and a half. Yeah, that's probably the one I don't think that. I don't think that needs an explanation, does it? No, none of that does. But again, but but and I mean I do so I make the Tampa Bay game like honestly, I I took Tampa, Um I got them at three, so um, so I do lean them at two and a half. I wouldn't play them at two and a half. And with the Eagles, UM, I make that spread just one.

So uh, you know that that kind of helps it as well. Plus obviously you know, getting the three and the seven, which you know, the three and the seven aren't arguably aren't worth as much anymore now with with the longer extra points. But um, yeah, I think it obviously depends on what what what you're having to life. That's a two point two team six NA point teaser too, yeah, no standard tease down through seven and three though on

the whole favorite side, that is true. All right, So rufus going with excuse me, Tampa Bay season it up through the three seven to well, let's call it eight and a half. Philadelphia, same deal, Um, just before we move out for that Philadelphia, Buffalo. Philadelphia looked so bad against the Dallas Cowboys. Do you worry about them in a sense. I know, I understand you know, taking your

teaser side makes perfect sense. But just as a football team that a lot of people had high expectations for, do you look at them and think that they are in some ways fraudulent at all? You know, if if you look at any good team at the end of the season, they end up having bad games. Um. Even I remember I was a few weeks ago looking through and some of these historically good teams because I was interested.

Do you remember back in the nineties when the forty Niners were huge favorites and Super Bowls against like the chart against the Chargers, um? And I was like, how is you know, I feel like you have. I can't imagine in this era you have like having a seventeen

Poe favorite in the Super Bowl. And so I looked through and then I saw the Niners like got blown out in like a game like Week five or something against the Elfie Eagles in and I was like, I wonder what people were saying then creating what narratives they created at the time. So I just think there is a lot of randomness in football, and and just you know, you're not always going to have your a you know, a game every week. There's stuff you maybe not be

prepared for schematically. I don't want to honestly, Um, it would surprise me if that was the case with the Cowboys, just because, um, it's Jason Garrett and so you know, I don't think he's any genius. Um, although Hellen Moore is look better. But you know, I think, you know, the Eagles do have a talented team. They've been banged up in the secondary. Um, I think that, you know, my player level model likes them a lot more than than the Massy Peabody team level model, So I think

the talents there. By the way, and I'm not looking this up, but it was against the Philadelphia Eagles because I remember it very well. The Niners were a juggernaut and they had this weird game at home where they got crushed by the Eagles. I'm gonna off the top of my head, and for some reason, I remember the score. I think it was forty eight something like that because it was this weird school were and when you asked

what was the narrative back then? The narrative back then was people just raise their hands and like, huh, that was weird. I kept no explanation for that game, and as the season went on and the Niners won, the super people like wow, what was that? That was basically the extent of the analysis back then, as I recall it as a as a child or as are as a young man. Anyway, Mike Palm teaser the week. Okay, girl,

I was so excited. My biggest accomplishment of the week last week wasn't that the Gnats past on the National League pennant ticket, but that I hit a teaser to go two and five on the year. You've actually got me betting teasers. I actually bet it live a teaser. I said, I cannot be this bad at teasers. It has to turn. So I actually bet the one last week. This week, I'm gonna go with the Lions. I'm going to tease the Lions down from seven to one against

the Giants. I think the Lions are better on both sides of the ball and the jimming. This is such a tough division, the NFC North. I mean, I personally think the Vikings are the best team, and the Packers are right behind. The Lions are not that far behind them them as well. Uh and the Bears are you know, not awful, but probably overvalued. I'm gonna take the Lions down to one at home against the Giants, who really can't stop anybody. I think Stafford will put up put

a big numbers this week. I know Carrie and Johnson might be out, but I think the Lions are capable of hanging thirty one or thirty five on the Giants here. So we'll tease that down under seven and under three to one, and then I'm gonna go the other way with a dog. I'm gonna take the Chargers up to ten against the Bears. I actually bet the Chargers on the money line in this game. I just think Drabsky is that bad that. I mean, it's deceptive to think that.

You know, they only lost that game by around ten points to the Saints. They were completely dominated. They cannot move the ball. Drabinsky cannot throw down the field. I mean, what are the averaging three three or four yards per pass? I mean completed past, not attempt um. But you have the factor Anthony Lynn in here. He's probably worth in a game that's decided by his score word minus three or Ford the Chargers and the way he handles ends of games. So let's go all the way up to

ten with the Chargers. That Chargers Tennessee finish last Sunday one of the most incredible endings to any football game I had Tennessee. So it worked out for me. If you ever hear me complaining about any outcome of any NFL game ever, remind me of that one. As two Chargers uh touchdowns at least on the field get reversed and it's followed by a subsequent fumble that was recovered

by the Tennessee Titans. Amazing sequence at the end of the game that after the referees seem to have botched Ryan Tannehill's or the or the Titans third down and then Ryan Tannehill's sneak on fourth down on this on the previous drive, there was a whole you know, just consistent with the referetion anigans of this year in the NFL. And those who had the Titans get fortunate. Those who had the Chargers see the most Chargers thing ever happened

to them. With Anthony Lenna's head coach in that game. Um, alright, so mine is also rufus is is the same thing I'm doing. The typical Stanford Wong teaser Philadelphia Tampa Bay. To me, that's probably the only teaser, at least that's the obvious teaser to make, and I'll go with that. And I don't think Buffalo is going to blow Philadelphia out, and I don't think Tennessee is gonna blow Tampa Bay out,

and so I feel comfortable with that one. Todd. Yes, I would just like to say, unable to be challenged or denied. Yes, that is the definition of the word indisputable and disputable evidence. That's all I'm gonna say, folks. Indisputable evinces. What what Todd is saying is that he had the chargers and that although our laws of human beings and gravity and physics suggests that those were probably short of the goal line, there was no legitimate visual

evidence to have overturned that. And Todd is very bitter. Correct, I'm slightly bitter. I think both balls were not touchdowns, but clearly I've watched one billion games and they never overturned unless it's unable to be challenged or denied the definition of the word in disputable. Thank you, nfl Um. As far as my teaser goes Um and Gil, you said you liked my showmanship. In order to do my teaser this week, I will be doing the song that that that that that that that the uh that that

that that that the bom bom bomp. I'm just kidding anyways, UM, I will I thought you might like that. So that's that's a good one that always gets me fired up for football. Um. Anyways, I will go with the same teasers as both you and rufus Um Tampa Bay plus eight and a half. Um, that's the only one I'd be a little worried about. I think Philly is definitely gonna show up this week and play some offense in Buffalo, and I don't think Buffalo is the kind of team

that usually wins by margin. So I will go Tampa Bay with the plus eight and a half in Philly with the plus eight and a half. One other thing I want to say, just so that people don't think I'm saying there's something. I think models are very important, and I think they have a lot to say. I just think that a lot of times some people's models have flaws in them, and the numbers can be corruptible, especially in a sport like football. So I'm not against models.

I'm I'm against ship and ship out models. And I think there's a lot of models out there that while they may be accurate of them, they may have of a blind spot so to speak. I don't I don't have any problems. That's a really good point, Todd. Yeah,

I completely agree. And I think especially in the game like football, where you do have such a small sample sizing you do you know, in a season, and you do have so many moving parts and things that are dependent on each other in context, I mean it's it's very tough. Um, it's very tough to to model football. And and you know, honestly there's a lot of art that goes into models too, and sort of intuition and trying to come up with, you know, um something logical.

So I have zero problem with that statements. In fact,

I would even suggest this. With legalization, we now see obviously a proliferation of people who are you know, instant supposed experts on all things sports, betting, and part and parcel with that is when you see someone who has who claims to have a model, there seems to be and you guys can tell me if I'm wrong or not, But I get the sense that by virtues by simple virtue of the fact that person claims to have a model, they are instantly i won't say deified, but they're instantly

canonized into oh, this person must be smart. They have a model, for God's sakes, And or they're all themselves sharp. All of a sudden they're deified as sharp. Oh great, well, I'll get a goddamn sharp certificate too. I think you can purchase purchase one of those down the street. They could you buy a few? Yeah? Um? But that I

don't know. I'm sensitive to that because I sort of get that feeling where I'm like, oh, well, like, how do we know, Like, all of a sudden, this person is supposed to be super smart just because they have a model, Like, I don't know that. So anyway, it's one of the things that I've been sensitive to. Alright, final two questions, Yes, gil gil By the way, even guys who have good models, very good models, doesn't mean the modeling is some of these models may have slight

blind spots for sure. For sure. I mean, look or Rufus may know who I'm talking about when I refer to somebody who I know who has been doing models for decades, And let's just say, it's wonderful to talk about, and it's wonderful to analyze, and some of the stuff is really valuable, but there's also a lot of stuff that ultimately is not that valuable and has and has blind spots. So yeah, I mean nothing is infallible, right, Um, I think I know who you're talking about, and I

think you might. Uh. Let's do the final two questions here, boys and girls. Final two questions as we close every megapod with UH. First of which is which is the big favorites you believe is the most likely lose outright? If you had to choose one of these, who would you think it is? Minnesota? SERI your candidates? Minnesota seventeen point favorites tonight against the Skins, New Orleans ten point favorites, ten and a half. Ten, let's call it ten now

ten and a half. I think you're right, Todd. I'm seeing more ten and a half now, No, I see more tense. Ten boy favorites at home against Arizona. Uh. Just to make this interesting, let me knock it down just below the seven. So Jacksonville six and a half point favorites at home against the Jets Detroit seven point favorites at home against the Giants, Niners six point favorites at home against Carolina, Houston seven point favorites at home

against ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding. All right, wait, turn New England thirteen point favorites against Freddie Kitchens and the Cleveland Browns, and then Monday night Pittsburgh fourteen point favorites at home, maybe even fourteen and a half against the Miami Dolphins. Todd, does that mean you think Houston is the one. I think they're the most likely because I think that, uh, you know, you have the Bill O'Brien factor. In my model says that Bill O'Brien loves

to keep the other fucking team in the game. Pardon me if I can't say the F word on the show, but I will say that he loves to keep the other team in the game. Oakland Raiders can run the football. Their defense is an abysmal bunch of garbage, but they actually can run the football. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bill O'Brien gives us a little Anthony Lynn like uh jokerism late in the game in Oakland pools some

kind of stunner rufus same question. So we um was Denver, Indy not eligible, uh, because it's kind of five and a half, so I didn't put that in. Also, yeah, let's not make that eligible because I've already discussed it. Um. You know I'm gonna take Carolina, um, which Todd, You're on that game overall? Right, Yeah, yeah, I think that um. Uh, you know, I don't have much of an opinion. Um it's or not enough of an opinion to bet it. I make it um a four and a half point spread.

But I do think you do have narratives working in the right direction. Um with you know, as Todd said, like san Fran coming off of a you know, really well. Actually, I don't want to say they came off a good performance because I think you can kind of just throw away that the mud bowl, right, I mean yeah, but I don't know what what that course and and the narrative. I mean, they're undefeated. Um. Although I am a little concerned about Kyle Allen. I do think Kyle Allen is

not a good quarterback. I you know, he's played, he's played, Okay, Um, he's five and o career as a starter. But there's a reason he was an undrafted free agent and occasionally there are quarterbacks that are you know, late round picks like Tom Brady that end up being great quarterbacks. But uh, the odds, you know, even even after five and start, the odds of of Kyle Allen being someone with staying

power are quite low. But hopefully maybe he can. He can continue to ride the hot hand or at least the lukewarm hand, uh and and beat San Fran on the road. So I think san Fran one thing they have surprisingly been recently is a little bit conservative with their play calling an offense. And I've heard Kyle Shanahan talk about how they're okay with winning with defense and getting three yards per carry sometimes and which keeps the

opponent in the game. It does, and so, um, if if the defense can't can't hold, then you know, we could see we could see Carolina. Want to Kyle Shanahan, who, for the first time in his career he says can rely on a defense. He says, a very funny feeling for him that he's never had this before. He's like, Wow, I can actually rely on my defense. Um, Mikey, same question. I look at the Texans and uh, I just you

know this Raiders travel schedule. I know they've got to buy in between, but never being at home, Uh, it seems to be very difficult spot for them to keep going on the road. I look at the forty nine ers, but how long can Kyle Allen's bumble luck continue. I think this will be a great game, but I still think this forty nine years defense is underrated. New Orleans Minnesota forty nine. I think these are the three best teams with a chance to get to the super Bowl

because of their defense. I'm gonna go to the Jacksonville Jaguar. We are so we are so aligned, Mike, Yeah, that's where I was going. I ever heard you talk about this, gil Um? So I didn't know that, but no I haven't. I have never talked about it. But that's what I was going to pay. I like the fact that uh Bean bell rallied around his quarterback and then playing that idiotic decision to air the ghost comments Um. The Jets are not as bad as they looked on Monday night.

I'm still not sold on the Jacksonville offense. I know Minshew has been serviceable, but I think the Jets bounce back here. I think if they can give Darnald time. I just think that this game, this game is ripe for an upset and a bounce back spot for the Jets. Yeah, I think six too many. I'm not even gonna add anything to that. I immediately gravitated George this game. The Jets aren't as bad as they looked Monday night. How

could you be? I mean, Sam the Sam Donald does do this one thing where if he starts out poorly, have you ever seen a quarterback whose spirals, as you know, as rapidly as that guy does in game in a in a situation like that, he just he's like, oh, I threw two picks. Let me just go crazy and and and make the worst decisions here down the stretch. Um. I know that doesn't sound like that that's a vote for the Jets, but I do think there are far

better football team than that. I think they're after they beat the Cowboys the week before we called them. If they have Sam Donald, maybe they're a perfectly average football team. So I would say, if any of the big favorites that we just mentioned were to lose, I would go to this game because I'm not sold on Jacksonville either, So Jacksonville would be my choice. Yes, before we go to the final question, can I ask rufus a question? Please?

Rufus um? So I think I can say with confidence for the other three of them, Gil Todd and myself that in terms of volume we do more in game wagering and pre flop wagering. How do you approach in game wagering and how much of let's say percentage of your volume of wagering is it? So I don't do any live live wagering. I bet second halves, um, but I don't bet nearly as much on second halfs as I used to it, at least for football. I mean for uh, it used to be maybe four or five

years ago. UM. Maybe my football volume was second halfs. I had a model that that did quite well. But I think the market has caught up a little bit there and so there's not you know, as many opportunities. But the issue, I mean, live betting is very um labor intensive and time intensive and um. And the other thing is there are issues with um with being well with limits and as well as particular books, I think mostly New Jersey, you know, waiting for approval and kind

of free rolling themselves. And that's why you only go a commercials groupe. Right, Yeah, do you find yourself doing more of your betting in New Jersey in terms of legal sports books? Um, well more than when there weren't legal sports looks in New Jersey. Well, no, I meant, I meant Visa v versus Nevada. Um, I think it's no.

I think still more in Nevada. But New Jersey does offer have better offerings for certain things like like golf, Um, you know the fan duel for example, as like top ten forty for tournaments like yes or Nos, and and more of the European offerings. But the problem is the books in New Jersey or more of the European style books generally and more likely to limit winning betters. I have sat with rufus of the past on college football Saturday at a Pro Football Sunday and watched you do

your halftime wagering. This is like you said four years ago or something like that. Uh, and you were massive volume for that type of wager. So it's interesting to hear that you know things change, right, for sure? They do in sports betting. Yeah, honestly, I was returned. I was, yeah, returning a lot on NFL and college football halftimes. In the last three years, it's basically been break even. So it kind of just abruptly, you know, the winds of

change arrived, the winds of change songs? Are you? Oh, I don't know that one, Rufus. Are you? Are you aware though, of the incredible disparity between books on in game lines, Yes, I am. I know that it's just more of a limits issue. And ay and ay, I mean that that sounds to be the labor intensiveness and the limits are the reason you don't really want to do it. And I don't even have a live model myself. Um, I've I guess I tried to build one maybe a decade ago, when I was like, this is gonna be

the future. But you're having to monitor a bunch of games at the same time, and it's hard to it's hard to really scale it. That's the biggest thing. And you have a life now, rufus. You have a life. Now, you have a life, if not a wife, rufus, rufus. If I can give you one tip, a life is negative, evy, that's why I waited ten years to have a life. Can I follow up and ask since you guys are betting live What type of live betting are you doing?

Are you are you my nitoring all? Do you monitor all these games going on at the same time and look for opportunities? Are you just near zeroing in on a few games? I do the first the former Mikey I would I would say I will focus on an NFL on a ten am slate with eight to nine games, on two or three games that I'm looking at to

find value. Uh. I do a lot of Baseball and hockey end game, and it's typically on games I've already pre flop bet and I have a lean to already or theory on the game or or somewhere where I disagree with the pre flop market, I'll focus on those games more. Obviously it's easier now when you get to the playoffs because there's fewer games you can focus on

in baseball. Um, but yeah, typically, But for me, for limits aren't a problem because both pre flop and end game I'm a five d to three thousand dollar better, so I don't really have to come up against those limits. Well, I mean, I would think one thing with in game betting is you can craft yourself quite a large position if you if you like you know, let's say you like one team at one commercial break, and then you're probably gonna like them. You might continue to like them.

But do you do you, I mean, do you have an idea of what you're looking for before the game? Do you give me an example? Rufus all give you an example of what I'm looking for? Often, very often late in the second quarter. We've talked about this on a numbers game with Guilt Show. Many times late in the second quarter there are massive mistakes, very often by

the books. One game that comes to mind was the Seattle l A Ram Thursday Night game a couple of weeks ago, where it was fourteen six with a minute forty to go. Seattle had the ball at the Ram thirty and it was fourth and one. They were deciding whether to kick the field goal or not. If you if they kicked the field goal, you're at twenty three and you have to assume the Rams are going to get three more on the other side, or at least two and a half you know from an expected return.

Uh and they and the they put it up at forty nine and a half, which was obviously slightly short because the second half line had to have been twenty four and a half because the original line was forty nine, so they really doing you know, And of course Seattle could have gotten a touchdown and or the Rams could have gotten a touchdown, which is exactly what happened. So you ended up getting on the good side of twenty four when when twenty four and a half is going

to be the second half line. So if you like it over anyways and you're getting the extra point there, it's like it's a delicious spot. That's just one example. I mean there's a lot of examples, obviously. Do you find I know that the end of game scenarios are the hardest for the books to model, like, you know, it is really hard to model live football without like simulation based stuff, and so I do, like I feel like just I think betters have there are definitely more

opportunities there. Do you have you found that I would agree with that wholeheartedly, both in football and in baseball. By the way, I think that they have real trouble late in baseball games, and I think they have real trouble lated in football games. In fact, in football games,

like you can almost take it to the extreme. If you're watching a game you can see on the screen based on who you know, the personnel that they bring into a game, and based on the in game number they're throwing out there that it's almost a free before you at the end, like if it's twenty four point s brand then it's minus twenty four whatever. You can

see the intentions of that team at that point. Baseball is a little more mechanical, but I think they have more difficulty, more difficulty for sure the later in games. For me, it's much other. Last night, Gil Gil last night was a perfect example with the with the Fernando Rodney twelve because even even though Rodney wasn't the mistake, you were still getting two and a half innings of great hitting teams and you were only costing you two runs.

And you knew Houston would have all their ship ballers in because there were down eight runs and Washington was gonna they were gonna give they were gonna give you Rodney. And that number is just not a correct number because two and a half innings, two runs, that's based off

the original line. That's just not right. And and no model, and no model necessarily is going to know the personnel like the anticipated personnel coming in or or build the bill bell check is hunting from you know, his opponents thirty one, which basically signals that he's done trying, done scoring points for the game. To this roofus to your endo game question. You know there's instances in football where

they'll post the number. Let's say a team is ahead by six and the other team has the ball in a disadvantaged situation, either deep in their own territory or they take a sack and its second and eighteen, and they'll post the team that's ahead minus say six and a half minus three hundred, there's four minutes to go

in the game. Well, the only way you're gonna that you're gonna cover that um is if you get a pick six or a scoop six, because if they stop them on downs one, first downald run out and it doesn't model that, and you know you can lay three and four hundred and some of those spots because it's really seven or eight to one that that's gonna happen.

The other thing I like to do with baseball is, you know William Hill offers end game first five, right, son, I'm a first five better because I can't bet full games because of all friends I've taken. I want to take every boltpen out of play because of the un predictability. Right, So like last night, you get four runs in the first and then going to the third, the five inning line is still six and a half. Well, it opened in the first five innings the number is three and

a half. Now it's two and a half for three innings. The math is on your side, it's gonna be under You're getting a better value on terms of at bats to number of runs scored. So I just think you're

looking for those opportunities. I think that's exactly even even if it's even if it's second or third time through the order, whatever it is, Right, there's some things on their side too, But I agree with you, Mike, like the just the math is in your favor at that point, and there's so many of those opportunities in both baseball and football, you just have to really dive into it. By the way, in football betting, this takes away game sequence,

you know, game actually trajectory out of it entirely. But like there are markets also that are being offered, like at h Forstan a bookmaker, which is a sponsor to this podcast, where I'm betting on replay, whether to stand or not to stand. Right, it's obviously a quirky little market, but they're making a market for stuff like that, and some of those are they limited, Right, it's only three pop and you have to keep doing it, but some of those are you know, Look, it's getting harder and harder.

Let me just say it was easier a couple of years ago. Is now you really don't know sometimes what's a catch, what's not a catch, what any of these rules mean. But there are so many better opportunities. Even something like that is a more sure thing than the standard preflop bets that we all have to fill content talking about with at nauseum. Right, So I mean that

should tell you right there. I mean NFL NFL sides are are about as especially in game day, are about as efficient market as there is right in the sports betting world. Right. But one other point to make is the proof is in the pudding. If one book is at thirty six and a half and the other book is at thirty eight and a half, somebody's wrong. Somebody's wrong.

That's right. All the time. Me and Mike are sitting at the south point and we're looking at our phones were like, these lines are so incredibly some d is wrong. The problem with that, though, is that if you're betting live stuff. From what I've heard, um, betting live stuff is I guess, aside from props, the quickest way to get UM to get limited, especially in these New Jersey books.

Oh yeah, that's a different story. But betting live stuff and doing it in an educated way, and it were especially if if they see you're betting something, that's where they're where they're different from the market. Yeah, I haven't had that. That's a whole another that's a whole another topic you're talking about, you know, how to count cards without looking smart as opposed to um, you know what. It's a great point obviously, but Gil, you know what

Gil would say, Gil, what would you say to that? About? What about what Ruf's getting banned? Like, oh, I know what you're getting at. No, what Rufus is doing is in game, Betty, that's a different thing. What I was referring to, which I think is what you're referring to, is people were getting banned at William Hill as a badge of honor. Some people like Rufus have earned that that badge of honor. Other people liked to go around say, oh I got banded at William Hill, they don't take

my bets. If you're getting bets at william Hill, you can't be that smart. Um. I don't want to get band at william Hill, right, so I will I will purposely not be an asshole so that I can still all the calendar year get these unbelievable betting opportunities from them. I'm not like making a killing becoming rich off them, but I'm getting thousands at a time betting the NL wild Who's gonna win the NL wild Card game? Right? I couldn't lose. I had the Gnats and the Brewers.

I set myself up with that, the Browns, I have the you know, not make the playoffs and plus money plus one fifty five over eight and a half. Like William Hill shouldn't be putting up those two props together. Someone, someone who put those up together is stupid for having put them up, And it's my job is a better to exploit that. But I'm not gonna go in and pound the crap out of it and then talk about how dumb they are on my show so I can

get banned. Why would I want to do that. And so if people, by the way Ed Miller feels the same way I do, Ed Miller, who plays poker but who wrote a book on the logic of sports betting, that's not our intention. And like, if you think we're lesser for not having been banned, you don't really get what the motivation is. So that I think that's what you referring to write UH sort of down that road.

But yeah, I mean, really the bottom line, me and Mike, I think we're just trying to make the point that there are advantages and and probably Ruffin's is right that you know if you do it too smart. Thankfully I

mixing enough dumbness that they don't ban me just yet. Well, I think what gil Gil all you were saying was the short game versus the long game, right, I mean, you want there's more e V and having a William Hill account, um, then there is and maybe making a bunch of money off of something in the short term, which you could, but then losing that And and believe me,

I know how valuable William Hill is. I went to UH, I was in New Jersey last May and was betting that I wanted to see if I could bet there, because you know, I couldn't bet it William Hill in Nevada they were taking five thousand dollars on golf round matchups for me on the app and then for and then eight hours later my account was shut down. But yeah, well or limited to ten dollars. Sorry. You come in there with blinking neon lights though, rufus I would imagine

for them at this point. I don't. I don't. I don't think people were like, I don't think people really recognize me. Well, I'm just saying figuratively speaking, I'm sure they're aware of you. I mean occasionally when I do wear the neon lights, they do. Yes, Okay, I know sometimes maybe you should not coming from Burning Man? Are you still going to Burning Man? I went for the first time this year. It was incredible. Really, you love you seem like the kind of guy that would love that.

What is by the way, I've always wanted to go to Burning Man. I've always wanted to go. I'll put it this way. There's something for everybody there. I said. My parents would have had a great time too. You know, if you can be like a druggy party person, you can be a completely sober person you can have appreciate art, appreciate music, just the spirit of of whimsical playfulness that that sort of embodies. There's no commerce, burning man, it's

a gift economy. It's it's fantastic, Todd. There's no sports, there's no sports book there, Todd, you wouldn't have a good time. I know. And it's always the it's always the first week of college football. But don't worry. I've before. Can I just ask you one other question, please? Okay, the other day I wore a shirt exactly like what Rufus is wearing today, and you ridiculed me mercilessly that I was wearing a tablecloth from a restaurant. How Come you didn't do that to Rufus? Okay, So I'm gonna

answer that honestly, since we're doing an authentic show here. Okay. So now let me get this from from the great Deborah Song, who is a fashion stylist. Okay, she talks as amazing fashion. That's right. Rufus was completely dressed by her on ESPN. Right, So what Deborah would say is this, and this applies to me. I'm not picking on you to Todd. What she used to say to me is because I used to be slim like Rufus. Rufus is a very slender young man. As we have gotten older.

Let me just say about me, as I have gotten older, I'm not as slim as I used to be, right, I used to be pretty young and pretty. But as you get bigger, you are not able to wear the same things. Everything looks on a slim person, right, So Rufus could put on anything and it would look great on him. That's why not clothes. Clothes and a slim person, right, not good. But there's a reason why mannekins and stores

are all slim. Right. So basically what I was told from Debra is that look, she goes, if you were slim, it would look good on you, but because you're not, it kind of looks slumpy. And so that's my answer. So the proof is, Mike, I need you to get that shirt and walk around Gil and we'll see what he says. Okay, that'll be the determinant if I like this experiment. Yeah, Mike is not exact rufus in. You know, Mike is definitely not what I would call a slender

young man. I would call him more on the portly side Porky. Wow, okay, why are you so angry this morning? Yeah? Yeah, so angry? You locked into an extra hour of pay from Visa the world. Oh I think I hit I hit a nerve with Mikey. Shot fired against me. Mikey, you know I love you. Come on, Mikey, you know I love you. Love everybody you beat regularly at tennis. That's, by the way, that noted Todd wishnev tennis ringer. Unbelievable

tennis prowess for a man of his size. Al Right, we'll have to play tennis sometime, Rufus, Come on down. We make lines and everything we do in game, everything fantastic. That sounds amazing. Oh well, keeping each other alive, that's

the main point, um. All right. Then the final question would be, and it seems kind of trivial at this point, but if you had to bet every single one of these uh in the bizarro world, but you are allowed one past one game that you want no part of whatsoever on the side, Rufus, what game would that be? Scottle Atlanta, which is actually a line up their right. I think Atlanta is a team that is has stumped me. They are Um, there they look awful in terms of

the metrics. They look awful according to the I S. But they have they should be better based on the talent they have on that on that team. They have not been particularly unlucky with injuries either. Um, they were in wind now mode through up against the salary cap. They you know, you have guys with track records and and and Matt Ryan is you know, according to the numbers, and according to many people's eye tests, still playing quite well. And yet they here they are and you know, a

train wreck. It completes that. But it's the defense, though, rufus. The defense is not interested in tackling another team. No, it's I think, honestly that coaching staff needs to go. And I'm guessing they're gonna go. I mean, what next week they have the by after this week, I'm betting dan Quinn is fired on Monday or Sunday night. And I would I would lay a big price on that. Actually, I wish there was a market for that, I really do. Yeah, I know a Falcons fan who who who actually heard

that as well? So and that dan Quinn has heard that too. That's that's with these things work. Yes, the Falcons, Like, yeah, I don't think it. Dan Quinn his he's the defensive coordinator now he took over play calling duties and and look how bad they've been. I mean, I think the reason I think it's becoming apparent that the reason they were like they made the Super Bowl was was they had Kyle Shanahan directing that offense. And um, I don't know who was the defensive coordinator then. I mean they

did not have a great defense. But dan Quinn seems to lose. I mean, just like Anthony Lynn. Do you remember that year, Um, I think it was the year before they won the Super Bowl where they just seemed to lose every uh every game, every close game, Like they could score with twenty seven seconds left to take a two point lead and the other team always comes

down field goal every single time. The The the Chargers game against Denver last year is still the seminal moment in Anthony Lynn's career to me, where they had the third and short and ne plus territory Rivers of course throws it into the ground. They managed to uh let Denver matriculate down the field. Um is it then effect or is at the Rivers? In fact, I feel like

Rivers has always has never come through in big games. Well, so you know that that ending against Tennessee this past week, Rufus is funny you bring this up because this has been my thing with Rivers for years now. Find me footage and apparently weren't. Weren't sharp play found one play. But I used to say, find me footage of Philip Rivers ever sneaking the football. It's as if he hates

It's as if it's a right. So like that last sequence against the Titans, the Titans didn't have to think about that as a as an option for the charges. They're like, nope, they're gonna give it to Melvin Gordon. We know that, like they never had to worry about Rivers sneaking, and like that's a competitive disadvantage for sure. By the way, Todd, why don't you tell Rufus what since he brought up the Atlanta Falcons game. What's my

nickname on the tennis court that you've given me? Well, Rufus, we call my good friend Gil who makes unforced air after unforced air, we call him Gilly Ice, which means what exactly it means. Maddie Ice is very talent it. You can throw the ball all over the place, but he's gonna make a big mistake in a big ball in a big time. He's gonna make an unforced their at a big time. And that's why we love gilly Ice. And we love giving him minus two in the in

a three game set and he loses three. Oh, even though he's head so so he's got he's got the strokes. He looks like he should be good. And then and then, and if you go the eye test, the guy looks like Ohio State. I mean, you can't. You got to see him in the practice. He's smashing the ball, he's got a giant serve. He's fantastic. But all the money is on the table and it's Mr gilly Ice right there was I know exactly what you're talking about. There was a guy in my high school tennis team. He

looked like he was going to be a professional. In practice, literally he was so good and then and then I would beat him six out just because he just when it counted, he did not. He was not mentally strong, you know. And I'm the opposite. I'm the opposite. I I look like the fattest guy you've ever seen in your life, who couldn't even last two minutes on the on the court, but got the mental fortitude of a young Mike Palm. I'm thrilled, I asked, thrilled. I asked Mikey,

same question. What do you want no part of? I choose this game because I have no read on the Cleveland team Brown's Patriots. I I don't get this team. I their talent level, they haven't performed to it. They're so inconsistent. I could see them going into New England and giving them a good game. I could see them getting beat by thirty five. So I I just I don't have a read. I know New England's defense is very good. Fox bro is tough to play, but the Browns should be a lot better than they are. So

this is a pass for me. Tough number Todd without reading the talm Wood, what is your pick? I don't even get that line. What does that mean? Because it would take a long time. Whatever. So I've overtalked, so one show, I undertalk and I get get in trouble. Now I overtalk and get in trouble. Okay, that's great, Um, I will I will take my game that I do not want a part of as I'm gonna go with

Ellie Chargers Chicago Bears. When you've got Troubinsky involved, and you've got Anthony Lynn, and you've got the religious Philip Rivers. You know, Uh, Philip Jesus did say you could sneak the ball into the end zone. You know that. I know you're not allowed to swear, and you have to have eight hundred kids, but you could sneak the ball in. Every once in a while, I will say I don't

want any part of that game. I'm gonna use the same answer that I used for the team most likely to lose out right Jets Jacksonville, because to me, that's the most volatible score for me. So I can just as easily see Jacksonville win as I can see the excuse the Jets win, as I can see Jacksonville blowing them out. So for me, that's the complete stay away Jacksonville and the Jets, gentlemen. And we've enjoyed it, or

at least I've enjoyed it. Uh. Todd in Uh, Mike Mike Palm from Circus Sports, Todd from Action and Visa. Mike is all over Visa as well. Mike it was nice to meet your wife and your child. Yesterday by the way, you know, uh, we were there at the Italy with my wife's co worker friends and the female is uh is single. And when you left, Gil, they said, oh, what about your friend? What about your friend? Is he gay? And I? Who God? I said, nobody's Jewish and gay,

nobody's Jewish. That's awesome. We're so politically correct here. We're so politically correct. And Rufus b body is my old friend Rufus back on the show. Thrilled to have him on. Rufus. Thank you so much for doing it, man, I appreciate it. This was so much fun. Guys, we really enjoyed it, enjoyed having you. Hopefully we could do it again sometime soon. Say hello to your buddy, Jeff I Bet the process, for Rufus, for Mike, for what's your name again? Todd Wishnev, Gil, Alexander,

thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all your bets this weekend in the NFL