Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 7 Preview

blame Jeff Parls for anything. It wasn't his fault. It was mainly our faults, the main staples of the show. On my right, ladies and gentlemen. He is the number two man over there at UH. I won't call him the number two man. He's Derek Stephen's conciliary. He's the vice president of operations at Circuits Sports. Mike Palm, what was happening, Mike, good morning? Must be a very proud day for you, being an educational elitist with a very prestigious guess. Yes it is. I am an educational elitist.

It's exactly. No one has ever called me that before, but it's accurate, and I own it. That's not accurate at all. Todd wishnev is here. He is claiming to be the opposite of an education elitist, but he's one two. What's happening, Todd? It's it's nice to be here and to show my PhD from South Alabama. Nice. By the way, did you see the South Alabama pick six last night? Did anybody see that? Anybody? Was one of the worst things I've ever seen in my life? What was he doing?

The receiver was twenty yards downfield? What was that? Look? Sunbelt Football gonna watch? Yeah, well, I know, I can't wait to watch that video you posted where apparently you got into it with someone from the Sun Belt Conference from Alabama. That's on Todd's That's on Todd's Twitter at t wishnev Um all right, and our rotating guests, as

Mike Palm has suggested, is a man with pedigree. He has a PhD from Stanford in a subject matter that I once upon a time used to describe on the podcast, but then I realized it took twenty to get through, so I stopped describing it. Maybe he'll do it for us, ladies and gentlemen from the power rank ed fang was happening ed now the much. Thank you so much for having me, And I would like to say, you know,

like a Stanford PhD is like organic describing food. It's really nice to have the label, but it doesn't guarantee the quality inside. And we I got a lot of great stories about Stanford PhDs. Uh. My favorite was the

one that was Larry Page's roommate at Stanford. He was working on his mechanical engineering PhD, and Larry offered, you know, he could have been what the fourth fifth employee at Google, but then uh, seven eight years later Google went public and this young man was still working on his PhD at Stanford. Yeah, because some things in life are worth more than money. Thank you. If you know what it's like to be in the tenth year of you, I mean it's pretty hard being in a six year of

your PhD. He was a sad dude that day. I think any Trump something and I was I was trying to make a facetious joke. But you never told us what the discipline of your PhD was. So I did my PhD in chemical engineering and I studied um liquids and how molecules move around in liquids, and weirdly it turns out to be a perfect background to study sports because you said a lot of the same variants. And by the way, I bet you Ed would have tons to say about my quantum physics theories. Gil. Maybe on

another podcast, Oh yeah, probably tall for hours. That would be fun. I don't know if it'd be fun it, but it'd be talking for hours, that's for sure. A quantic computing is gonna come and wreck all our theories on sports betting, so we why as we'll start talking about it now, by the way, I sold you short here, d So not only, of course the flagship is the power rank dot com, but you do a lot of

different things. Now what else are you doing? Because I'm on your podcast with Jim Sands later in the day, So explain what everything that you do is. Yeah, Jim Sannas and I whole host covering Spread. It's a sports betting podcasts that we do for FanDuel UH and Number Fire. He's he's a senior editor over there at Number Fire.

So we do that twice a week. Ones that take hated to college football, one to the NFL, and then I also have my own podcast, The Football Analytics show, uh, in which I talked to people about football analytics and it's not explicitly about betting, but we certainly don't shy away from that. Nice and football analytics spot is still going strong after all these years. Yeah it is. I think it's only year three or maybe four now, kind of all ones together, but uh, it's been a lot

of fun in it. Uh. It makes me talk to people instead of just holding myself in my basement with my numbers all day. Okay, well, hopefully your Standford PhD will give us some winners here today before we before we get to best bets Mike Palm circa six weeks in, who's in the lead. What's this person's record? Uh, twenty three and a half points? Is there are two at twenty three and a half? Unlike the super contest that has a twenty seven and three jeez by like three

and a half games in a quarter too. Gil. Remember we had fifty people go five and oh week one in October. We now have three people at ten and oh week three. You know, I was not only four and one like Todd was the first week of the quarterly. I got to five and one with that new England went on Thursday night, so I was feeling very good about myself. Um, and then my last four games on Sunday.

Let me explain to you how they went. They went like this loss, loss weight, hold up for the rest, loss weight, one more loss, so I'm probably not in it anymore. Todd, did you did you do? Okay? On Sunday? I was sixteen and nine coming in. As you know, I went one and oh in London with the Carolina Panthers, and then I got Baker Mayfield Freddie Kitchen, and I also got Atlanta Falcons referee problems, and it was a ship storm of zero and four to move me to

seventeen and thirteen. The dream is dead, and I'm thinking about going back to Stanford for a PhD. Okay, right, fair enough, fair enough, All right, let's do it. Let's start with best bets. As always, we start with our guests, Mr Fang, what is your first best bet of the week? Week seven? Yes, so the game I like most this week is Houston plus one at India. Game Gill usually on the the format of the show, as we talk

about Thursday night before the best bet. You know, Todd is right about format things and on this he is right, So Ed, I apologize. Hold the best bet for a second Thursday night happens to be one of my best bets actually, ladies and gentlemen. So it's sort of a melding here. Kansas City at Denver tonight, two weeks ago, we're looking at a four and oh Kansas City Chiefs team and an oh and four Denver Broncos team. Two weeks is all it takes in the NFL. That just

discombobulate everything that we think about these teams. The Chiefs are four and two, the Broncos are two and four. The Raiders, by the way in the mix in the a f C West as well, at three and two. This is at Denver. This opened higher than it is and it has come down this entire time. So we're at a field goal now. I even saw last night. I even saw minus three minus one oh one at one point. Now it's minus three plus one hundred. It is reduced juice. As we speak, I see the Christmas

tree lighting up across the board. So I don't know if this will get below a three. I mean, I can't fathom that it would, but at least that's what it looks like now consensus. Listen, it was minus five and a half at open. How do you feel about this, Mike? Any play tonight because you can already sense where I'm going. Well, I made to habble a little bit on the under in this game, gil Um. If there's any offense that Kansas City can stop, it might be Joe Flacco and uh,

and we've seen my homes hobbled Watkins. When Watkins is out, they're just not as explosive, you know. Uh, fan Jo's on a little run here with his defense having having held reverse to two fifty yards and then shutting out Mariota in Tennessee last week. So I might I might take a play on under. I might go first half under twenty four and a half. But not a real

strong feeling on this game. All right, full game total, by the way, forty nine on this one, Todd Any thoughts tonight, gil Am, I marking you down as the best bet for this game. You will be momentarily okay, So thoughts about this game tonight? Uh, here's the thing this, you know, I know, Kansas City's all banged up, Mahomes his ankles messed up. There's you know, problems with wide receiver,

offensive line, blah blah blah blah blah. The the thing that I would like to say is this Vic Fangio beat me every single week, whether I bet on him or against him. I'm going against this Fangio Fannie Pack jerk Uh. Here's the deal. If you want to beat Kansas City, you at least have to have a decent offense, because even if you're playing better on on on defense, they're still gonna get some points. So to me, this is not the time to be going against Kansas City.

I like going against Kansas City when they're giving five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten points. You can get the backdoor covers where when this situation, you're asking Denver to really be competitive with them, and maybe they are, but they're gonna have to prove it to me. Just because you beat markets Mariota doesn't make me think your defense is fantastic. So if I'm not gonna bet this in my three top bets, but if I had to bet here, I do have a

strong lean to Kansas City. Yeah, I'm I'm actually this is gonna be one of my best bets for the week. I really like Kansas City monus three. Um, when you start looking at this, uh, if you go if you look at a look ahead number, So basically what I would have made this in the preseason, it would have been Kansas City by almost five points. And I understand that bad things have happened to them over the last two weeks. I still think of the Indie game as

kind of inexplicable. How um Indianapolis defense that was down Cup a couple of other top players was able to stop Kansas City. Obviously, you know the Mahomes injury and his ankle probably played a part in that, And and sure he's probably still a little bit banged up, but for all we know he's gonna play tonight, He's probably gonna look like the Pat Mahomes that we all know and love. And um, I just think, you know, Denver was a team coming into the season that we didn't

really think that highly of. Um. Yes, their defense looks a little bit better, but I'm um so one of the things on defense and on offense, I look at success rate and I adjust for strength the schedule based on who they've played. Denver's defenses look pretty good. They look ninth in past defense and seventeen in rush defense. And in contrast, Kansas City is has really struggled. So the twenty two and past defense and and thirty ONEET and rush defense and and they couldn't do anything against

Indie's offensive line. But still with all those things being said, it's it's Patrick Mahomes. Um, it's a division game. Perhaps they were looking forward to this game a little bit last week. Um, it's the national primetime game. I like Kansas City minus three. I am going to add on the best bet of the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs. Now, I know last week I said this about the Houston Texans line where the Chiefs were concerned, where I said, you know, down to four, that this was an overreaction

over adjustment, and I thought the Chiefs were cheap. Then Chiefs went out to a seventeen to three lead. Uh and then at the end of the first half there was that sequence that really changed the game. Juan Thornhill picked off to Shaun Watson. Should have knocked it down. It was a fourth down play. Mahomes and the Chiefs uh Eddie redecided they were gonna try to matriculate the ball down the field from deep in their h from deep on their side. Mahomes was strip sacked with twenty

seconds left in the half. Houston recovers, Watson waltz is into the end zone. On the very next play, Houston lad and they never looked back. Kansas City was held to three nine total yards. They gave up four seventy two. Yes, their defense is a sieve. Uh. And then there's Denver who held Tennessee to two a fourth teen on third downs. But by the way, Denver was also two for fourteen on third downs. Joe Flacco in that offense. Not scary anybody.

They did help hold Tennessee to two four total yards thirty nine on the ground, they sacked both Mariota and Tannehill combine seven times three picks. But it's Mariana, it's Tannehill. They are not the Kansas City Chiefs. Snooze Flash. And I'm basically going to back up everything that everybody said,

which is this is three points Kansas City. Like the the notion that two weeks ago we would tell ourselves, hey, by the way, in two weeks that Thursday night game, Kansas City is only gonna be a three point favorite. We might have responded, Oh did mahomes get hurt in the next two weeks, like we literally would have said that we there's no there would be no other explanation

for this. It's Kansas City for me. And this is one of these bets that you have to be willing to lose, right Like, It's one of these where I'm like, look, it's Kansas City minus three. I'm betting it. If I lose, so be it tip of the cap to Vic Fangio and Denver, and then I'll never bet the Kansas City chiefs, you know, in this current form with his defense ever again, but one more shot at this on a Thursday night at Denver, just giving three, Thank you very much. I'll

take that. So Kansas City a best pet for me too. So Ed and I have already given a best pet Todd, So mark those down. Okay, I'm marking down Gil and Ed at Kansas City minus three. Ed's already Ed has already given two best bets. He's also got the Texas plus one and do you like Texans plus one better? He already said it. He as totally bumbled the show because again, well we'll get to that, because he didn't give an explanation. Good one and I like I like

Houston plus one better. Okay, well, now you're bumbling the show further, Mike, because you're going out of order. So, for goodness sake, he already gave the pick, if I know, but he didn't give the full explanation. So let's go around the horn for first picks, and then we'll get to Texans plus one from Ed as his number two pick, where he can give his full explanation for it. Yes, Todd, is that the way to do it. That is the way to do it. And I'm surprised with Mike's operational

background that he doesn't get that. Vice president. First of all, he gave the pick, and then we went back to Thursday night. I have a question for Todd. Yes, yes, makes what makes Vic Fangio a jerk? He said, he's a jerk. You have a personal experience, Yes, I have. I have five personal experiences with him, three against him and two four him and and uh, you know, I'll be honest, if I went to lunch with him, I

definitely wouldn't even consider picking up the check. Well, there was already a lane there, whether it was Fangio or any other human being on earth. That's right, Todd. Todd, I love you, I say it, I love talk. Don't get mad. Bil. Can you ask Mike to make a best bet? Because you know, I feel we've really dumbed it down. We have a stand for PhD on the line, I know, and I apologize, Mike. Uh, since you tried to further bumble the show. What is your first bet, Mike?

First best bet? Um? I'm going to take the New York Giants minus three? Really? Uh? Yes, And if you'd have told me after two weeks that I'd ever have the Giants as the best bet, I would have probably said I've lost my mind. But I think this is a tough spot. A ten am Pacific start game, traveling across the country for Arizona, and the Giants look to have their full complement of their offense back, not only with Barkley but with the receiver in the tight end.

I think this is a short price. I don't know that Arizona, with their awful defense, will score enough points to keep up with with with Daniel Jones, because I think the Giants can hang in the mid thirties on Arizona here. Uh, just so long as they don't get too far behind in this game, like Arizona did, so i'l a three with the Giants as my first best bet. Okay, by the way I was, I was saying really uh, not because I didn't like the pick, but because I'm

surprised anybody gravitated towards this game. But your explanation, Ringstreet. By the way, I had been Fawkes from ESPN on a numbers game at Visa this morning. He also likes the Giants. Arizona did for all of their UH one point win against the Falcons last week. They did have a bunch of lucky breaks, not lucky, but things went their way. Damian Bird looked like he might have fumbled after a fifty eight yard catch call was upheld after review.

Kyler Murray ran for a first down on the game's final drive on a play that was close to being short of the marker, but that review was also confirmed. And then Todd you wanted to say something about like we we all talked about horrible calls, and certainly Monday night football was on full display Detroit and Green Bay, but Youth claimed that Arizona was the beneficiary of the worst call you've ever seen this season. The kick catch interference.

You know, Falcons down, get back to seven, all are punting the ball because of course, you know, the Falcons can't continue and take the lead, but they have to bed and punt the ball. They punt the ball up in the air pretty high, So there's it's one of those deals where there's like a whole bunch of guys coming back toward the returner and the off quite frankly, the receiving team blockers were closer to the guy making the fair catch than the other guys, and it hit

this leg and of course bounces away. Falcons get the ball, but they call kick catch interference. In what I will contend is definitely in the top three of the worst NFL calls we've seen this year. And uh, you know w W E style. Of course, Atlanta loses, Okay, So add that all those things, Todd's call them the two that I just mentioned. Arizona had everything break there. We're including a miss extra point right for Matt Bryant to win it. So add those in the Giants column as well.

That even Arizona and Victory had everything break their way last week against the Falcons. Todd, your first best bet, sir, my best bet is the Jacksonville Jaguars minus three and a half. I think the Cincinnati Bengals are not a team that you want to take as a dog, as a short dog. I think you want that team when they're getting eleven, twelve, f teen points and can get back to our covers. I don't think you want them when they're only getting three and a half, albeit at home.

I think the Jags are a pretty good defensive football team, and couple out with the Cincinnati horrible defense, I think the Jags will be able to get out past the three and a half. You know this for me, by the way, was the biggest difference between my guessing lines guests and the actual line. I thought Jacksonville would be five and a half point favorites, and as you said, they are only three and a half point favorite. So Jacksonville your number one best bet. Alright, best bet number two.

I know some people here are upset that you uh that I went out of order, I should say, and that you tipped off your second best bet bet. But please so that everybody's happy. Texans plus one that's your second best bet. That's right. You'll remember you were on the show, so you get to do whatever you want. But I and I indeed I like Houston plus one. I really think this line is an overreaction to what happened two weeks ago when Indianapolis Kansas City nineteen to thirteen.

It was really an inexplicable game. UH, India's defense is not particularly good, and then they had three starters that did not play for the majority of that game, and yet they still got the win against Pat Mahomes. Of course, there were other situations going on there as well, because Mahomes got his ankle tweaked and it hasn't looked like the normal Pat Mahomes since then. However, India hasn't played since then, and I just don't think that lightning strikes

twice again for this defense. They're still dealing with the injuries. Safety MALIEK. Cooker is out UH Darris Leondard the linebacker and Clayton Gethers, the safety are both listed as questionable with concussions. And you know, even with their good performance against Kansas City, the Colts don't look good on defense by my numbers. So when I look at adjusticed success rate, the Cults are sixteenth against the pass against the run.

Now on offense, The Colts offense is essentially what you would expect without Andrew Luck, but a great offensive line there in passing, but best in the NFL and running the ball. So they'll try to run the ball against Houston. I don't think that's gonna go particularly well. Uh Houston's run defense is good, ranked tenth in the NFL by my adjustice success. Right, that's significantly better than what they

faced against Kansas City. I've also been looking at Pro Football Focus and their player grades to help my analysis of games this year. One thing that's jumped out to me with Houston is that defensive tackle DJ Reader has a grade of ninety and run defense and that's out of a hundred. So overall, my numbers actually like Houston to win this game. Outright, I will go with Houston plus one at Indy Houston plus one at Indie Houston.

Last week against the Chiefs, I realized it was the Chiefs, but still thirty nine minutes and forty eight seconds of possession nineteen twelve, just nineteen twelve for the Chiefs outgame him on the ground one fifty three four seventy two to three o nine in total yards ten penalties. Yes, for the Texans, that's been a league wide problem for seventy yards. The to clean that up. But DeShawn Jackson thirty or forty two for two eighty one touchdown, two picks.

Again the Colts defense, not the Chief's defense, but um certainly the game they wanted from their offense last week. We'll see if we can if the Texans can carry it over into this week. Gotta keep DeShawn Watson up right, That really is if you do the box score review on these games for the Texans, it often can be distilled to that one point is Deshaun Watson getting sacked left and right, meaning four times or more, which happened eight games in a row at one point, uh than

a couple of games later. He got sacked six times earlier this year. But when they keep him clean, which they did last week, m VP candidate Deshaun Watson for sure. So you're taking Houston plus one Indianapolis on the extra rest, Yeah, absolutely. I just want to jump in real quick about Watson and sacks. So one of the interesting things that I've come across is the work that Eric Pro Football Focus has done about just how much control quarterbacks have over

their sack rates. Uh, it's more than you think. We tend to think about it as the offensive line giving him protection, but often it's the quarterback in his decision making and whether he gets the ball out quickly and whether he invites sex. And Deshahn Watson is is someone that does invite sex sometimes by pulling the ball down and scrambling around. Russell Wilson is definitely another one in that camp too, So I think the sack rate is an important stat. As you mentioned Gil, it's not just

on the line. I think it's also on Watson as well. Mike Palm, by the way, who we have lost and had to go run and do stuff. So we apologize for that technical difficulties and we can't get him back because he's got time constraints. He likes the under in this game, and by correcting that, and if we recall that correctly likes the Underha, he does like the under. Okay, he likes the under. And the number on the under here in this game is forty seven. So Palm is

on the under Houston at Indianapolis. That's his second best bet. Todd, what's best bet number two for you, sir? Best bed Number two was the Miami doll Miami do Miami Dolphins number one plus seventeen points. We talked about this on a numbers game on Wednesday on Gil's show. I think the difference between Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick is vast. Now.

I do realize Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a dumpster fire and throw four interceptions, but he can also be in a competent quarterback at times, so I'm hoping for the latter this week. I just don't see how a defensive football team like the Bills should be favored by seventeen points pretty much against anybody. And if Ryan Fitzpatrick can be somewhat adequate, get the Dolphins seven points seven and you cover. So I'll take the Miami Dolphins plus the seventeen.

I'm with you, man, I am with you. I do not understand how we live in a world where the Buffalo Bills are seventeen point favorites over a Ryan Fitzpatrick led Miami Dolphins team. And again with all of and Fitzpatrick's foibles, this isn't Josh Rosen. We should not live in this world where Buffalo is the seventeen boy favorite. So I'm with you there. By the way, this just in is Dwayne Haskins starting for the Redskins. My god,

oh my goodness, well taking first team reps. Anyway, I am all about the Niners on my number two best bet. Whether it was case Keenum or Dwight Haskins, I'd be on the Niners. Not only will the place be overrun by Niners fans a little more than fifty Niners fans, I would say coast to coast here. But the Redskins were two or fourteen on third downs against the Dolphins. They could barely hold on to the lead at the end.

The Niners against the Rams were awesome. I had the Niners in game in that game at minus six and a half. They were up twenty to seven for a huge portion a huge portion of the second half, and I never had any doubt. Even if doubt crept in. The Niners kept turning the Rams away, kept turning away, and Jimmy Garraw below uh fumble the ball. The Rams returned into the San Francisco thirty six with eight forty

two play. The Rams promptly turned it over on downs and Kyle Shanahan had this to say after that I had a feeling that if we just don't turn it over, we'll win this game. I haven't had that feeling very much in my career, and the defense definitely gave it to me the whole game. That is huge. I am considering. Mike Palm and I already have the Niners to win the NFC West. I have it at plus three Mike

at plus three seventy. I'm considering adding NFC futures with the Niners, Super Bowl futures with the Niners they didn't have. By the way, they're starting offensive tackles Mike mcglinsey and Joe Staley in that game against the Rams. Uh yeah. The Redskins ap Adrian Peterson double his yards on the ground. That's not gonna matter against the Niners defense. They're flying all over the field. They're stout against the run, They're really good against the past. I don't know how the

reds can score against this team. I don't know how they stopped Jimmy Garoppolo and crew. Give me the Niners minus nine and a half my second pick. You know, I I liked your second pick before. Now I love your second pick because I think d Wayne Haskins is overmatched, and at least with case Keenum, you know, he's a below average quarterback, but he's still in NFL quarterback somewhat. But Haskins, I think is just fully overmatched. So I

I love what you're talking about here, Niners. Well we'll see what Bill Callahan ultimately decides to do, because he announced case Keenum earlier in the week, But we shall see. Give me a favorite, Todd, give me your number three pick. And before you even do that, give me what Mike palms number three pick, because, as I mentioned earlier, we lost him. You got his first two. We do have his first two. Okay. His third pick was the Minnesota

Vikings minus two on the road at Detroit. He believes that Dalvin Cook should be able to run the ball against Detroit. I think that was the main um. The main thrust of his Minnesota argument was that Minnesota would be able to run the ball on the road at Detroit and be able to come away with their good defense at lines two. Okay, what's your third pick? My third pick is the Baltimore Ravens at the Seahattle Seahawks over the forty nine. The Baltimore Ravens defense is a

dumpster fire. This is not your father's Ray Lewis defense. This is not your father's Ed Reid defense. This is not a good defense on I think Baltimore will give up points to Russell Wilson uh and I think they can score as well. Seattle's defense hasn't really impressed me either. Both of those these teams have been playing games in the high twenties. I think there's no reason to think that both teams can't get into the high twenties again

over the forty nine. Let's go points. By the way, no number three pick is the same as your number two pick. I'm on the Dolphins again. You're giving me seventeen with Ryan Fitzpatrick despite the interception rate. He is a feaster famine guy. Miami plus the seventeen on principle to take Miami without doing the song No, I'm not gonna sing that. I'm sorry. Could you sing it one more time for us Miami Dolphins? Fuck you would? Yeah?

For me, it's it's Miami and again, much like the previous two picks for me, both the Niners and prior to that, my first pig being the Chiefs. One of these picks that you have to be willing to lose in all of these cases. You can beat me in either of these cases. Broncos, you can beat the Chiefs, Redskins you can uh cover against the Niners, and in this particular case right here, Bills, you can cover against

the Dolphins tip of the cap. But I'll take the Chiefs, the Niners, and Dolphins very very confidently in each case. Best bet number three, Mr Fang, what do you got? Absolutely? Yeah. My My third best bet is the Charges plus two at Tennessee. And Tennessee's offense has just been a complete disaster this year when I look at adjusted success rate their three and pass offense. This has led to the benching of Marcus Mariota and Ryan tanny Hill is gonna

start the scheme. Tanny Hill is pretty interesting. In the years before last year, he had past grades of seventy ish or above. Last year he dropped forty five. So that doesn't give me a lot of hope that he's going to come in and be much better than Mariotta, especially since Mariota certainly hasn't been good. The interesting thing about this game is that when we only look at

the small sample size of this year's numbers. So what I'll do is I'll take stats like margin victory, success rate yards for past attempts, and I'll just look at what teams have done through this season. Tennessee is actually favored by four um when you just look at that component, there's a couple of factors involved. Tennessee's defense has been terrific. They were in eighth and past defense and second and

run defense. When I look at my adjusted sack rate, the Charges have struggled the past defense, and they haven't had Derwin James all season, and they've had some other second injuries in the second area as well. But when you factor in, there's other things that go into my model as well, and those factors favored the Charge is out right. You have to remember they have Philip Rivers, Who's going to be the best quarterback on that football field on Sunday. So I like the Charges plus two

at Tennessee. How about Melvin Gordon having the nerve to ask for more carries. He like destroys Austin Nekeler's game, all his touches the Chargers entire season. Perhaps by doing so, now he wants more carries. That's his solution. This is what happens when good Midwest boys go out to the sunny beaches of Los Angeles. Yeah, I don't think that's gonna end well for him. Alright, Ed, we start with you two teams six point teaser of the week. What

you're looking at? Yeah, I mean I didn't really know much about teasers until I had Preston Johnson on my podcast a couple of weeks ago, and he told me about some of the underlying data on teasers, and it says essentially that you you want to take um, you want to tease through the key numbers of three and

potentially seven. When you do this, you can show, based on data over a lot NFL games that these tend to be profitable and of all the things that you can do with teasers, And I think that fits in perfectly with two of the games I like Charges plus two Tennessee and the Texans plus one at Indie. I'm want to tease those through that key important number of

three and and that's my teaser for the week. So we'll get Chargers what plus eight, and then we'll get Houston plus seven Sport for today's Beating the Book podcast comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot EU. I have been saying it all season long, I will continue to say it. The bookmaker dot eu as an

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Don't miss out, all right, gentlemen, Final two questions, the first of which which of the big favorites is the most likely in your opinion to lose outright, only three qualify. I think I know what everybody's gonna come up with. The only three candidates Buffalo seventeen point favorites at home against Miama San Francisco nine and a half point favorites on the road at Washington and New England nine and a half point favorites on the road at the New

York Jets on Monday night. What you got it? And I should not include green Bay favorite by five five and a half over Oakland in this right, you should not because everyone's gonna take I mean, you're really gonna take Green Bay because you're getting four points paired to the next highest game you Yeah, I'm gonna go with New England. I mean yeah. I think it's more of a call that I trust the Jets more than I

trust either Miami or Washington. Just brought back Sam Donald last week, look pretty good and getting the upset win over Dallas. I don't think they're gonna play at that level every week, but I think this is a team that's that's gonna have potential when they when they have something besides the statue playing quarterback for them. New England obviously looked great. They're a key Super Bowl contender. Uh,

there's not much bad you can say about Belichick. Uh. We do need to remember that Tom Brady still is forty two years old. I know a little bit about being that age. It's not as good as earlier in your life when you're playing the game of football or any other sports. So not that I really expect this to happen, but if I have to pick one of those three, I'm gonna go with New England to get

the big favorite to get upset outright. Actually, y'all wanted to bring up something about your watching Redskins that I

thought was interesting. Please with with Dwayne Haskins. I was talking to Eric Eager and he has access to all these grades over at Pro Football Focus, and it was interesting that he said that Haskins didn't grade out that well last year at Ohio State, which seems a little preposterous because their offense was particularly explosive, set all the big time passing records, but the analysis was like, yeah, he didn't really have to make that many hard throws,

so a lot of it was short stuff, wheel routes, crossing routes, which every Michigan fan will remember from last year. Uh didn't really have to make deep intermediate deep throws. Um so didn't great out particularly well. And you know, I mean he doesn't looked good in the limited action that he's seen this year. So just something I thought that was interesting. Not necessarily heartwarming for a skin guy like yourself, but such joy you bring it. That's what

I'm here to do with you. I guess if I have to choose from those three, I'll take New England. But I don't like it, Okay, but I knew you're gonna pick that. And finally, and finally, that the game you want no part of. If we live in a bizarro world, you have to pick a side in each and every one of these games, but you didn't have to bet one of them, which would it be? It? Yeah, the game I want no part of is the Miami Dolphins game. And I want to know part of this

team since week one. And I'm a guy who tries to model the outcome of games, and I think it's very important when you do that to understand the limitations of your model. And I think the Miami is a very difficult team to model this year. You have no ideas about motivations, and I think we can sit here and argue all you want about whether they're tanking, what

their motivation is. I personally think the players have a lot of motivation to play because they're still relying on this as their job and as their source of income. But that doesn't really seem to be the case. Sometimes with this team, you have to know the limitations of what you can do and what you can understand. So for that, and since I'm a math guy, I'm going to stay away from the Miami Dolphins. You know, it's the NFL, so there's a lot of games I don't

really want any part of. I guess the best one I would probably go with is m just give me a second here to anytime, and don't worry about you. I would not like the surprise you or anything, but go ahead. It did surprise me because I was busy with a lot of other stuff. I'm sorry. I got Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. How in the world do you know what's gonna happen in this ballgame? The Dallas Cowgirls can look great against crappy teams, look horrible against

good teams. The Philadelphia Eagles can lose to the Atlanta Falcons. I don't know what what's gonna happen here. Give me Philadelphia Dallas for the stay away. Okay? For me, New England was the pick for the big favorite most likely to lose that right division game on the road. I don't think New England's looked all that great even though they're undefeated, so that would be the obvious pick there. I think that's unanimous, and for me, the game I

want no part of. For me, it's Arizona and the Giants. I hear all the reasoning with the Giants, but I just don't trust them at all. By the way, the other one for me would actually be Chargers Titans. That actually might trump Arizona and the Giants for me. Did Mike Palm have a pick for teaser for big Favorite and four game he wants no part of? Well, he said Packers on the favorite, but you've already nixed that, so he doesn't have any on that. No part of

the Rams Falcons. He doesn't know what he's gonna get with the Rams and Falcons. His teaser was the New Orleans Saints, like we both had bad sign that all three of us like New Orleans is one leg of our parley. And then he went with the Miami Dohens plus the twenty three points. He agreed with the Fitzpatrick, reasoning he thinks Fitzpatrick can hang him in the game. Plus the twenty three and New Orleans plus then nine and a half. Gentlemen, we've done all we can do.

From the power rank ed Fank, thank you, Thank you so much, Gil. What was a pleasure for Mike Palm and Todd wish and have good luck with all your Week seven bets in the National Football Ly, thank you so much for Lusty