Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 6 Preview

palatial Grace Land somewhere next to the South Point Hotel casino. Todd, what is your record now in Circle? What is it? I believe it's sixteen and nine, but thanks for drinxing me sixteen and nine. Todd and I both went four and won the first week of the new quarterly A Circle. Uh, they're fifty five and oh's last week and two D four and one's interested. We are behind the eight ball.

See if we have a Thursday pick coming up, and our guest today on the heels of Michael Lombardi and Joe Ford and Ball Leases and Gentlemen's producing number five from the Visa Show and numbers game, and he hosts his own show called market Watch Monday through Fridays UH four to six Pacific, seven to nine Eastern evenings at Visa. It's Jeff Parl's Good morning, Jeffrey, good morning, Gil. It's uh, it's a it's a great honor to be on with you.

It's a great honor to be on with Mike Palm, and it's a great honor to be with the guy of eaton tennis. The other day, well, easy on the last one, which would be Todd Wishneff in the first annual Las Vegas Invitational tournament, although a rules committee came down on Twitter and said that in fact, it is your responsibility to move that ball that was on the court, and so therefore the point should be Todds. That changes everything.

Todd hitting a drop shot that managed to hit a ball that was laying on Jeff's side of the court. Of course he did. We gave the point Jeff should have been Todds. And then I go pay the guy this morning and try to give him a hundred dollar bill because I own like forty six dollars because he hit a plus one thirty against me, and he gives me a hard time, like I'm giving him a hard time for giving him a month. I didn't. I didn't know if I had changed, Todd. It's a it's a

big deal if I don't have changed that. This gentleman pulled a groin while playing Charging to the Net Mike Palm Mike Circus Sports update mentioned fifty five and oh's and two four and once. What is the leader of the whole thing at right now? Twenty wins, four losses in one tie, so twenty and a half points. Todd Wish snaps, it's only four and a half points back lead. Wow.

For those of us who are in this quarterly thing now after one week of four in October, we want to know what the number is on this in New England Thursday night game? Do we have those out yet? As we record this on Thursday morning? Here the week six point spreads. The Patriots are seventeen over that giant in the circle con seventeen. Okay, so Todd, Then the question becomes, and we can start with a Thursday game here, gentlemen, the the thought becomes, you know, normally I don't play

any Thursday games. This is awfully tempting tonight with the Patriots and seventeen point favorites. Thursday games are squarely, but the Giants are basically punting on this game. There's no sae Quon Barkley, there's no Galman, there's no Shepherd, there's no Ingram. Are they going to score enough points here to prevent New England from covering this? Todd? Are you playing this at all? I'm not gonna play it. If I did, I would, I would, I would lean to

the Giants, But I'm not gonna play it. Jeff, I like New England the laying sixteen and a half or seventeen, regardless of of where it is right now. There's some sixteen and a half's out there as well, But I'm looking Giants team total, I said earlier today on the numbers game. I liked it even under ten and a half. There our twelve and a half's out there. How are the Giants gonna score more than twice in this game?

I know, Todd and I got burned on a on a jet team total against New England a few weeks ago on Purechcanary, But I kind of like that under twelve and a half Giant team total and uh at minus one. Mike, you know I actually lean Giants getting seventeen. But I don't like this weather. Yes, good point. I think the weather is a big factor tonight, Gil and H Daniel Jones playing in the A C C and so far only in the fall. Uh in New York has not seen any weather like this. Brady is so

used to these conditions. I think this really leans Patriots with weather. I am so tempted to play the Patriots and play a Thursday game. Foxboro temperature right now fifty two degrees tonight, expected to have fifty precipitation, chance of precipitation fifteen miles per hour wind. I just don't know if I want to get locked into the other four picks, but I am tempted by a Thursday night game in the way that I have not been thus far this year.

So that's the Thursday night game. Let us begin with best bets. By the way, how do we do last week? Todd? Let's recap? First of all, Oh yeah, we should recap. I believe that you guys, both all of us went two and one on the picks, which would move me to nine and six, Mike would move to eight, six and one, and you would move to six and nine. Six and nine because I put together one and two is every other week. What happens if I win Circa October after that performance, that will be the poster child

of why Circa did these quarterlies? Someone who could be as bad as me the first month and then turn it around. So that's what I'm playing for. It could happen. It could happen. By the way, if this weren't a football show, I could brag about baseball. But since it's not a baseball show, there's nothing really talk about. Gnatitude, Baby, don't worry about it, all right? Raised the Night. You should just say, how about that? Davy Roberts. If you've been listening to a numbers game on visa, just a

windfall of cash. Yesterday, Cardinals Gnats Nats series, both wild card games. We hit multiple games in the division series. I think we missed twice the entire time so far. Got the raised to night plus to forty going against our futures bets on the Astros. We shall see. All right, let's do football picks. Let's try to do better. Mike. We start with you. What do you got. I'm gonna take a total for my first best bet, We'll go

with old Fannie pack Vic hosting the Tennessee Titans. I thought this number would come back thirty seven, thirty seven and a half. We've actually seen it take up to forty. I'm gonna go under forty and Denver um I think you will. You will see this game played in the teens. Mariota won't turn the ball over to keep the game close. But look at last week, even in San Diego, neither team moved the ball, the Chargers or the Broncos. Flacco is just like you know, a statue back there. I

think Tennessee will put some pressure on him. They'll be able to sack him a couple of times. And I think the first team just to a seventeen wins this game. So we'll go under forty in Denver. Under forty and Denver. I'm gonna jump in because if you listen to guessing lines this week, one of the picks that I had the long team favorite in is this one. I thought Tennessee should be favorite. They are not. Denver is a two and a half point favorite in this ball game.

By the way, I think forty and a half is more consisdered. We give Mike an extra half point for it is under all right. If that's consensus, that's consensus. By the way, the Denver line is too. I'm taking Tennessee. Here is my best bet, first best bet of the week, Tennessee plus the two points. For some of the reasons Michael just stated in one of which was Marcus Mariota doesn't do a lot right. I've been a critic of

his for many years. But the one thing he does do well, and we'll have him, you know, in this league for many years to come, he doesn't turn the ball over. As Mike said, this is one of these games where I think that particular skill is at a premium. I think Mariota and the Titans, now with their new kicker. By the way, no more Cairo Santos and miss four field goes last week, three missed, one blocked. It is, in fact Cody Parkey. I think Cody Parkey, Marcus Mariota

and the Titans go in. I'm not gonna be influenced by what I saw from the Broncos one week. Last week. Uh, they finally forced to take away did the Broncos after not having done so the first four weeks of the season. Came up with three last week, but that was the Chargers doing Chargers things. I'm not gonna count on the Broncos having that kind of a turnover lead in this one, or a turnover victory in terms of the turnover differentials. So I'm going Tennessee plus the two points. I think

Tennessee should be favored. Todd Um, I'm gonna go with the under in the Dallas cow Girls versus the New York Jets under forty four and a half um. And here's why I always love playing Dallas under. I think they're just a great under team because they love to run the ball. They're not that explosive offensively, and I think their defense is pretty good. Now, last week it would have gone under. I had under against the Package.

It was seventeen nothing at the half, and it got out of control because the Packers got ahead by so much went into the pre event and that killed the under. That may not be the case this week. I think you guys were all talking about darn Old is going to be back this week, it seems like. But even with them back, how I don't see the Jets getting more than fourteen points, maybe seventeen, So you know, fourteen fourteen fourteen still gets even even thirty to fourteen gets

you under the forty four and a half. So I'm gonna go under the forty four and a half in the Dallas, New York Jets game and hope for the collaborate to run the ball forty four and a half, which is one of four afternoon games on Sunday. Thank you that they're not ten and two this week. Remember we have a London game six thirty am Pacific, nine thirty am Eastern, then six games at the ten am one pm time slote, and then four games in the

afternoon in the Dallas Jets game. One of those four, Jeff, we usually start with our guests with picks, so I'm gonna snake this. You get your best bet, and then you can follow it up with your second best bet. Here to start things off second round for us. Very nice going the full fantasy football style here, Gilt. Yes, I'll start off with one of those late afternoon games. I'm gonna take the Rams minus three, laying the points

against the Niners. Now, of course, the last two samples we've seen from this team, these two teams of San Francisco absolutely pummeling Cleveland on Monday night. The Rams losing a tight game and really a game they should have won. Zero line usually money on kicks at the end of games, Mrs the forty four yard field goal. It's a scenario here for the Rams. It's a good spot. They're back at home the Niners on a short week. If the Rams lose this game, they're gonna be three and three,

the Niners would be five and oh. It would be a scenario where the Rams are two and a half back without the tiebreak against San Francisco, and if Seattle were to win in Cleveland, they would be two back in Seattle with Seattle having the tiebreak. It feels like a good spot for the Rams to get right, even with how good San Francisco has looked. I'll lay the three with the l a Rams at the Coliseum against the forty Niners. That's my first best bet of the week.

Gill Yeah, Niners on short rest here Rams. Last week, Golf filled up the statue one touchdown to Pick Everett and Cup his biggest target seven for Everett, nine for one, seventeen touchdown for Cup. Girly fifteen carries for fifty one yards to touchdowns just fifteen carries, but Jeff taking the rams for all the reasons stated giving the field goal as his best bet. Numero Uno, what's number two? Number two? I'm gonna go to arrow Head. I know the Chiefs

are banged up. I know Patrick Mahomes is banged up, but I like over fifty five in this game. This feels again another good spot for Kansas City to get right after a lackluster offensive performance against a really good Indianapolis team. Hey, and I lost Indie took two weeks ago to Oakland. Might just be the fact that the Raiders are pretty damn good themselves, but I like over fifty five. I'm not sure how Kansas City slows down Houston. Houston can run the ball well. They obviously have an

explosive passing game when things are right. But I see this game both teams in the thirties actually, so I'm going over fifty five. Casey's offense gets right, Houston's offense, off of a humongous league last week against Atlanta, continues to roll against a not very good Casey defense. What about fifty five and a half? That's consensus? Over fifty five and a half. Yeah, I'll still go over fifty five and a half. This the guildes this feels something

in the pocket of thirty five thirty one. That still gets me over that fifty five and a half. All Right, we'll see what version of Deshaun Watson in the Texas offense. We get Deshaun Watson who was clean, perfect passerrating last week, but prior to that was just getting sacked left and right. Uh. He had a streak of eight straight games with at least four times being sacked, and he got sacked twice,

and he got sacked like six times before. He was clean last week in Houston's win over Atlanta, but that, of course was Atlanta Houston at Kansas City. Jeff going over fifty five and a half. Todd pick number two. I'm gonna go with the fighting gardner men shoes and the jack Backsonville Jaguars giving one point to New Orleans. Now, I'm thinking, why are the Jags giving one point to New Orleans? And most people are gonna be like, well,

New Orleans are is really good. They've got Bridgewater playing well. Maybe it's the regular Saints not so fast. In my opinion, I really like what I've seen from Gardner Minshew on the road played extremely well against Carolina last week. They could have won that game had they not given up a sack fumble for a touchdown. UM. I also liked

what they did against Denver on the road as well. Uh, now they're coming home Teddy Bridgewater, while he seems to be getting things under control with the Saints, it's still not Drew Brees. So it's still not let's let's call it sevent of New Orleans offense. And now you're going into Jacksonville against the team that a couple of years ago was a great defense. I don't know necessarily they're a great defense anymore, but they're probably pretty good on defense.

And um, I just think that New Orleans in that road game against Seattle, they won because of you know, defensive touchdowns and turnovers and stuff like that. Now you're asking Teddy bridge Water to go on the road against a pretty decent team in Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville feels like, hey, they might have found something here at quarterback. And all I gotta do is win the game by one point.

So I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the one what do you think about New Orleans though as supposed to New Orleans. Do you still think Jacksonville wins a game against New Orleans? Well, no, I gotta change my pick if it's New Orleans. But because I was making my bed based on New Orleans. All right, we're sneaking this, so it's my turn now. I'm I'm sneaking

ahead of Mike right here. I'm gonna go to London against my better judgment, Going to London for a squirrely six thirty am Pacific, nine thirty am Eastern State side London game between the Panthers and the Buccaneers, A very early rematch to the season division battle. Already playing game number two. Cam Newton played in the first game for the Panthers. Tampa Bay won that on the road at

Carolina fourteen. A lot of love for Carolina here. Christian McCaffrey lighting up the stat sheet and rightfully so that there's a lot of love for Christian McCaffrey. Nineteen carries a hundred seventy six last week for two touchdowns, then through the air six catches sixty one and a touchdown, averaging nine point three yards per carry last week and the fourth time this season that they had at least

a hundred seventy five yards from scrimmage. However, they use a single back inside zone run that piled up two eighty five yards rushing three touchdowns against your Jacksonville Jaguars Todd last week for their third grade win, first victory at home. By the way, I just think there's a couple of problems with that one. They run that play at nauseum, and I think the Tampa Bay coaches are smart enough to realize, all right, let's take that away

from them. Let's make Kyle Allen beat us. And Kyle Allen puts the ball on the ground a lot, and they've gotten mass have the Panthers performance by a lot of Kyle Allen fumbles that have ended up back in Carolina Panthers hands. Uh. And I think Tampa Bay meanwhile, every single week they come out, they can throw up thirty forty points on anybody. Mike Evans didn't get the ball at all last week in a very strange outlying thing where he was an intended receiver just three times,

didn't have a catch for Tampa Bay. I think they make a point to go to Mike Evans. I think they go to Mike Evans time and time again. I think Godwin does this thing. I think Jami's has a big day. And I think Tampa Bay is the wrong I think the wrong team is favorite here. Carolina is two and a half point favorite. We'll call it two

now two and a half. Somewhere in that pocket. I'm taking the Buccaneers as technically home dogs, even though they're not really a home team, but technically home dogs at London Tottenham. So what are we what are we grading that as? Plus? What Tampa Bay plus? I I see more two and a half? So two and a half plus two and a half Todd bushnev keeping score keeping the grades, Mike Palmiery, Ladies and gentlemen from the Circle operation, What do you got, Mike? What's number two and number three?

I'll stay in London with you, gil uh and and go back to the fact that these two teams played each other already this season, familiar with each other. I think Todd Bowles is doing an underrated job with the defense in Tampa Bay and the improvements they've made there. Uh And then you look at you look at Ron Rivere and his defense in in Carolina, which is is never a slouch. These two teams played to a total of thirty four earlier in the year, and it's come

back at a forty eight. I think that's too high, and so I'm gonna go under forty eight in London as my second pick. I see forty seven and a half. Well, you see him? I see forty eight. Okay, what do you see, Gil? I see forty seven and a half. Todd, I'm with you. Do you still want it? Mike? That's a very difficult question. Now that's a very it's a very key number. I wanted to push it to scoreless overtime. I'll stay with and a half. All right, what's number three?

Smarty Pansy. I'm gonna I'm gonna go back to a game that that Todd, that Todd picked, and I'm gonna play it over in this uh Jacksonville, New Orleans game. I love Menshoe, I don't. I don't think they can hold Menshoe down. And I think that now that we've taken we've taken the training wheels off Bridgewater, as he's gotten more experience, I thought this total came back low. What are you seeing? I see forty four? What are you seeing I've set three and a half three and

a half as well. Well, okay, we made up the half point there over forty three and a half. I like it should be decent weather in Jacksonville. I was very each week I get more and more impressed with Menshoe and his ability to move the ball up and down the field. So I think this game is gonna be a very good competitive game played in the upper twenties. So over for that one. By the way, the the tactics that Mike Palm is using to get an extra half point we affectionately know as hoops Peterson in it

on the podcast today, that's the tactic hoops Peterson in it. Well, that's really low. I'm sorry. I want to mention Gil. I want to mention you know they say you're affectionately known as Dr Gail and all this, But what a week for visa. I mean, you had a Mall's Shaw lecturing at the at the Tommy News from School of

Media at USC. You had Gregg's Hoops Peterson being flown to the West Coast to teach Bill Walton about basketball, and then I know there's no footage of this, but I was told that Maddie Humans gave the commencement address a keynote speech about brand loyalty in front of over forty thousand graduating clowns at Jack Murphy Stadium at the commencement address for Ronald McDonald University. Wow, it's a big week, big week for visa. I did not know, Geez. I

thought the Las Vegas invitation was big enough. By the way, how is your growing? You're growing? Okay? You know. I stopped feeling my groin because all I can feel are my hamstrings and halfs now that are so sorry. I can barely walk. I think the only way to really remedy this is for Todd and I to play again tomorrow morning. So we're on for nine am. Oh nice. The line will be on bookmaker around. I'm not sure what the installation is yet, but we will be getting

back to everyone. It's all based on how how I hit around with Todd before the match. Give Give Give, Give me Palm plus the games again. That's all I'll say. Yeah, we we made a bit of a fortune betting against Todd Wishnev's ridiculous lines that he created, which propped him up to be Novak Djokovic look lines will be adjusted and this time there will be no mistaken calls to rob me. I mean, I lose the earthquakes, I lose the incredible bad beats, and I lose the incredible bad calls,

and it's unbelievable. Todd. I have to tell you that your uh description of your drop shot that barely went over the net and hit the winner clear fantasy. He's got the best words, doesn't he? I felt. I felt as if I wasn't Ziff, he was watching a totally never match. Anyway, we should charge admission to these. Someone should film these, by the way, I Gil gil Gil. I will say there was a intent interest from the the behind the scenes crew and visa of of the

Las Vegas Invitational that I'm sure there is. All right, So it's it's my third pick here, and I am torn every which way on this because I can't decide if I want to go New England, if I want to go Seattle, if I want to go Kansas City, if I want to go Washington, Atlanta, Dallas. So many games that I kind of like Green Bay. In the end, I think I'm going with what feels like almost a contrarian pick right now, which is the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs giving four at home to the Houston tech Sens.

I believe Tyreek Hill is gonna show up for this game, and I think the four is a major overreaction to what we saw last week. Listen, Kansas City's defense is not good at football. I get it, but the Houston Texans are a sieve on that offensive line. Don't let last week's game fool you. This is Andy Reid against Bill O'Brien. I have said on the numbers game many times, and if there's just one handicapping tenant that you should have in the NFL, let's say you could only have one.

It's power ranking these coaches and betting accordingly. This is Andy Reid versus Bill O'Brien. I don't trust the Texans from week to week. I do trust the Kansas City Chiefs to be able to overcome four at home. What was the look ahead on this? The look ahead had to be way more than this. Give me the Chiefs minus the four at home Sunday morning against the Texans. That's picked number three from me. Tot or it did?

It did open seven and a half, so it's it seemed like the entire world is on Houston, and and that usually means the entire world is gonna get burned and you're gonna win. Go No, you know what that means. I hope, So I hope. So that's I mean, I feel good about that pick. We you know, Now, here's the thing. All it's gonna take is one more bad performance by the Chiefs defense for me to completely never

bet them again. But I'll go with him here giving the four because I do think this is way too short. I will take I'm really torn here as well. I don't know how I'm gonna come up with five circuit picks. This week just looks incredibly difficult, you know what, I'm just gonna go with my gut. I like Tennessee plus the two points. I think at the Fangio versus v Abel, I'll take Rabel every time. Uh, Tennessee really could be four and one if they had a kicker that could

make some kicks. Uh. And you know, it's not like it's a team that goes on the road and wins all the time. They're very well coached. They're getting to we could easily see this being a seventeen sixteen game or ninth, you know, twenty and nineteen game. This game just feels like it's gonna be tight. Tennessee is gonna run the ball, They're gonna play good defense, Hopefully the Cody Park you won't hit it off the crossbar too many times, and somehow Tennessee with getting the points, somehow

gets there. I also like the fact that Denver one last week, in a game which they were trying to give away desperately. It was Chargers versus Denver, that the game that no one wants to win, and so you know, Denver finally got to win. Time for them to you know, roll back to their typical Denvernus. And let's go with that. Tennessee plus the two their typical Denvernus. What's your last one? I'm gonna go to Sunday Night on this one, and I'm gonna take the seven points that the Pittsburgh Steelers

are getting. Now you're you're probably thinking, jeff are you, Jeffrey, You're gonna have Devlin Hodges as your quarterback here to on Sunday night? Back up. The backup to Devlin Hodges is Slimy Goldstein at Mount Is she the state. It's it's actually Todd. I believe it's actually one, the one that only packs them a lynch. And I'm not making that up here. But look, the Chargers are a complete mess and Gil we we've talked about it on a

numbers game. The Chargers won so many close games last year that it's regressing back to the mean this year in the way of the Chargers looking like the Chargers of a hole. And I don't I don't care if it was Craig Hodges playing quarterback this week for Pittsburgh. They're gonna find a way to keep this game tight. I like Pittsburgh's defense, especially recently. They played well enough

against Baltimore. They were great against Cincinnati. I know the Bengals are terrible, but they look good in that game. But I think Denver's gonna be Excuse me, I think Pittsburgh's gonna hang in this game. I think that game against Denver last week for the Chargers showed what they really are this year. They're fraudulent, they're gonna miss the playoffs, and they're gonna make this Sunday night game that looks awful on paper a tight game because they are the

los Angeles Chargers. I like the Steelers getting the seven. Would love to see Craig Hodges in his full Chicago Bulls uniform behind center for the gil Hodges I was, I was thinking of another Hodges couldn't come up with one, alright, So Pittsburgh your final pick going the old Anthony Lynn fade here for Parley on a Sunday night sport for today's Beating the Book podcast comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot eu. I have been saying it

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exclusive welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars. Once again, that's bookmaker dot eu slash gill g I l L. To join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now, don't miss out all Right, teaser time, Mike Palm, Let's start with you. What's your teaser of the week? Oh, gil Uh, I'm gonna go with the game you guys like and take take tease the Titans up to eight at Denver as the first play, and then I'm gonna take and tease the Cowboys down

to one. I like that. I am doing the Titans and the Bucks taking two dogs that I think should be favorites, teasing them through the three through the seven. So it's Titans and the Buccaneers for me, my two team six point teaser wish nev Oh wow, Um, I'm going to go with the Cleveland Brownies at home. Uh

Cleveland plus what am I getting? Eight as well? So leveland plus the eight through the uh through the juicy three and seven and now I need to put it with somebody else, and I'm going to put it with the It's almost as if you're deciding this on the spot. I am. I'm deciding it on the fly here because it's so difficult. I'm gonna go with the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys minus one. I mean, how can the Dallas

Cowboys lose to the New York Jets. Yeah, although it is Sam Donald off the mono and when last we saw Sam Donald, they built up a big lead against the Buffalo Bills back in Week one, only to squander itself. Yi, you do know that that UM teams that are having a monon nucleosis quarterback in the last thirty five years coming off a double digit loss on games of less than fifty seven degree weather with a chance of humidity of over are ten and four. Wait a minute, Wait

a minute, there's a subset to that. Also, when the wind has blown five to seven miles an hour, they're six and one. Mike, whatever you do, don't tell people where you've got that information from. I know will never up. Yeah. By the way, Sam Donald does not play defense the Jets. You ready for this parlay? This is our numbers game

thing this week? The Jets have given up a score when their opponent is inside the red zone on fifty four consecutive possessions fifty four consecutive possessions by an opponent inside the red zone in which the Jets have given up a score. In other words, no stoppage on downs, uh, no interception, no fumble recoveries, no ability to make field goals, not go through the uprights fifty four. The Jets have scored two touchdowns in four games on offense. You're New

York Jets, Jeff Parlay. There, they're there, work of Art Gill. They truly are a work of ar Are you teasing Dallas too? No, I'm not. I'm not touching that game. Um on a teaser or actually, I know we'll have a question later like that, but uh, it's in consideration for that answer a teaser. Wise, here, Gil, I'm with you guys on the Titans. How is Denver winning this game? By Morden's more more than a touchdown? Tease? Tennessee up

to the eighth. I like that a whole lot. And this one I'm gonna go away from Pittsburgh obviously, and I would see him as the obvious one since I liked them getting seven. I'm gonna go to uh, I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm gonna take the bet. Put push the Bengals up to seventeen and a half against the Baltimore Ravens. At some point pride has to come in for Cincinnati. And I'm not buying Baltimore at all, Gil.

I think they're pretty fraudulent. This is the second time that Cincinnati has seen Lamar Jacksson as well, and Lamar Jackson has struggled the second time around the league. So I'll put Cincinnati all the way through seventeen, up to seventeen and a half. So Titans plus eight and Bengals plus seventeen in the half, well, we can only give you six, so that would be seventeen on the button, and we still do it that. I'm I'm I'm seeing eleven and a half. I'm not saying that, Jeff Paul's

I'll still take it. I'll still take it up to seventeen. That's fine. Once again, Hoops Peter sending your way through this podcast here, everybody. Here's my thing with that. I've been on Cincinnati twice on the road a t s. They've come through each time. I totally get what you're saying. I don't think it's a bad play at all. In Cincinnati.

I asked this of a Lombardi earlier in the week on Visa on a numbers game series sex Channel two four Michael Lombardi, who has worked with the greats Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick, Bill Walsh, Al Davis, and I said to him, I go, have you ever seen a coach talking about Zach Taylor now the Bengals who looks more lost and more helpless on the sideline than he does. It is so hard to watch that guy. And Lombardi, who you who has no problem piling on on these kinds of things.

He also was very sympathetic Zach Taylor. He just looks lost. You feel terrible for this guy. But you're teasing that with uh with Tennessee? Was that the other one that you had? Tennessee? That's right? Yeah? No, I think all of us like Tennessee. Gilt. You know what that means. Oh boy, So we all picked Tennessee. And the teaser is that right? Mike went Tennessee. Will no, No, Todd did not. Todd did not. Yeah, Mike went Tennessee. And Cowboys.

You went Tennessee and Bucks, and um Jeff went Tennessee, and since I went Cleveland and Dallas. Yes, you're you're well thought out, heavily researched teaser that we all heard from you when you came up with it. Alright, final two questions, gentlemen, Each and every megapod ends with these two questions. First of which is which of the big favorites do you believe is the most likely to lose? Out right? Let's go through these. I think we have

enough candidates. I might have to fudge this obviously. Thursday night in New England. Seventeen boy favorites tonight against the New York Football Giants. Baltimore leven point favorites against the Cincinnati Bunglesta, we gotta go down an ultimately afternoon games Dallas seven point favorites on the road against the Jets. Charge will throw that in there. Six and a half point favorites at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which of that group, which is the big favorites, is the most

likely to lose? Outright? Mikey Chargers, Anthony Lynn, period, I will say the exact same thing, and it's not that difficult of a choice, Todd, I guess, uh, I guess you have to go with the Chargers. I mean, who's gonna lose Dallas. I don't see Dallas losing. Um, you know, I mean, yeah, I gotta I guess I could. I gotta stay with you guys on this one. Dallas I gonna lose, Baltimore gonna lose to Cincinnati. Maybe division game, maybe,

certainly not New England. The problem is that I'd like to include more games in this, but once you get past the Chargers, it dips all the way down to four as the biggest spread other than that. So those are your only candidates, Jeff, same thing, Chargers. Yeah, I I think it has to be the Chargers. Uh. I would say Dallas is the second most likely to lose if if the Jets had had C. J. Mosley this week. But Mosley is gonna be out, Mosleys out. It's it's

got to be the Chargers. That's really the only choice. Mosley is a big deal because, as we call that game that I talked about week one, that entire Bills Jets game changed when Mosley left the game for the Jets and the Jets squandered a sixteen to nothing lead, ended up losing seventeen to sixteen Week one against the Bills.

All right, final question. Then, let's say we live in a bizarrow world where we had to make we were forced to make a pick on the side, and each and every one of these NFL games, every damn one of them, but you were allowed one free pass one game where you looking at the matchup, You're like, I have no idea. What's gonna happen here, Mike Palm, which is the game you want no part of. I'm gonna go to the game with the organization too dysfunctional to

win against the organization trying to lose. I want no part of Redskins Dolphins. Easy choice. Although I'll be honest with you, I actually considered the Redskins for one of my picks, and circa I did it is case Keenum. But I hear what you're saying, No no problem with that pick, I will say for me, and I hadn't. I actually hadn't thought about this in advance. But for me, I think the one that I want absolutely no part of is maybe the best matchup on the board, which

is Philadelphia at Minnesota. So I'll go the exact opposite of what you're saying, which is clearly the worst matchup. Washington Miami. I think Philadelphiat Minnesota. The spread is three from Minnesota. Just have no idea who's gonna come out on top. I could see Minnesota beating him. I could see Philadelphia beating him. It's like a Kirk Cousins referendum game, Todd, what do you want no part of I don't want any part of this. Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Diamondback Cardinal Team

or whatever it's playing over there Atlanta. I just can't stand them. I don't know. I made a bet on them last week. That might have been my worst end game bet of my entire life, other than taking myself plus two and a half games against Mike palm uh in the initial minus two an F. Yeah, that was just a bad line. So Atlanta Falcons, who who? What is this team? I give me a break already. I mean,

they're just ridiculous. And then Arizona I don't even know what to think because you know, sometimes they look at Kyler Murray and I think, Okay, yeah, he's really talented. He can do things, and then he can run around other times, I'm like, well, this team just stinks. So I I just don't know what I'm getting in this Arizona Atlanta game. And and can I just say Matt Ryan is not good. I'm just tired of this. Matt

Ryan is good, nonsense, He's not good. The Kyler Murray thing is interesting too, because I think through five weeks of the season, we have impressions of all these other quarterbacks, like you have a you have an opinion formed of the Gardner Minshows of the world. You might even have opinions formed of other quarterbacks. But the number one pick in the draft, Kyler Murray, I'm not sure I have one right, Like sometimes Okay, make some plays, the height

still bothers me. I don't know if he's any good in the end, I really don't like he a sustainable, good NFL quarterback. I'm not sure he is. Jeff game, you want no part of the game. I want no part of is the exact one that Todd wish and have just brought up. I don't know how you can handicap that game between Atlanta and Arizona because Atlanta's teams to have given up. It's only week six and it's not like Arizona is any good despite their win last

week in Cincinnati. I want nothing to do with that game. And in Glendale Arizona, I think both the teams stink. It's quite possible, it's one way. It's quite possible that they tie thirty eight. I want nothing to do with this game at all. I'll tell you how confused I am with what Circa picks to make this week to come up with five that I actually considered Atlanta here for a bit because it's sort of like the thinking about Minnesota versus the Giants last week in Minnesota is

one of my correct picks last week in Cerca. It's like, if you're any good at football, Atlanta Falcons, you have to win this football game, right, Like there's no way. Well, I don't know. That's why I'm not picking it in the end, but I considered it for a second for that for that reason, right because it's like, Okay, you're you're you should Julio Jones should be able to go crazy, but I'm not betting it. I'm not touching it, not

even including it. One of my picks is a tough week, Todd, you you have trouble coming up with your five too, huh I I am. I am terrified this week. I mean I every week I look at it and I go, oh my god, it's so hard. And this week I just think I'm just overwhelmed with how hard it is. I I don't know what to pick. Sixteen and nine. Todd Wishing at four and a half out of the lead, could be a millionaire at the end of the season. Could be by the way, how pumped would all of

us be if Todd Wishing have won? Circle is there? If it wasn't you, And I'm like, palm, you're not eligible. But if it weren't you, Jeff Parl's, who on earth would you like to win this more than anybody? My answer would be Todd Wish. Now I would agree. It would also be the greatest comeback story in the history of sports gambling if Todd managed to pull it off.

You know, Gil, What's what's so good about this first week, though, is that with so many people five and oh and four and one, how excited everybody is going into week two? I mean I personally, no, I personally no four people uh that are five and oh? And I was getting texts Monday night and they're all excited, and you know, until they see fifty other people. But it creates so much buzz and and forethought into this that even a better idea than I thought it was going in. And

you know, you know this. This consensus picks were three and two last week, and I think they're I think they're eleven, uh eleven nine or ten nine and one now so far the consensus picks meaning the picks that there were most picked, the five most picked games in circle is what I'm saying. And I think this week this would be a great prop bet. What will the consensus picks be over or under two and a half? Obviously two and a half is where is the is

the demarcation point. I'm gonna guess this week is gonna have under two and a half on the consensus under I think it's a total underweek. I echo what you said, Mike. It's as great as you probably thought it was with the quarterlies. It's better than ever. You mentioned that you might have a Survivor type contest next year. Is that correct? That's correct? Yeah, Derek one. We didn't have time to roll it out this year with the short eat up

because of opening June one. But in addition to the circule million, a survivor, a survivor of football contest as well as a different option. I love it. I take back what I said about Todd winning circuit because I just thought about what he would actually be like if he won this, and he would be unbearable. Absolutely, I don't think the word is unbearable, would be incordible. I think I think I think to my to your question what I would answer, And obviously I don't want one

to win more than the other. But the better result for a person who would be more humble if they won than then Todd. And it's a person that went five and oh this this past week would be Paul Howard. Well, Paul Howard deserves credit for the five and oh. By the way, I say every week on the show that if you think you're you're the one doing well at football and you think it's your handicapping, because I totally marked down, I'm like baseball and tennis is a cerebral

betting activity. Anybody who thinks the Roxy Roxburgh, the great Roxy Roxburgh said to me goes gil. No one wins in the NFL, nobody that's from the Sages wisest guy in the world. And what he means by that is you can win for a week, you can win for a month, maybe even a year. But if you think it's you doing this overtime, like, if you think it's you winning this, if you hit, you're getting a lot of breaks in the process. And so uh, I think I would have a lot of humility about it too.

If I won the monthly this this month, by the way, I would be the most humble human being ever because I would I would talk about what a joke it is that I wanted given my last month's performance. I just feel like there's so much up in the air about it. I just want to circumillions. I can get that jacket and just wear that jacket. We were all the time. Well you'll have you'll have enough money to get it altered. We end on that Mike Palm from Circa,

Todd wishnef from Action and uh Numbers Game. On Wednesday at Visa, Jeff Parls producing number five on a Numbers Game and his own show market Watch on Visa Serious XM Channel two or four. Thank you, Jeff appreciated, hope it wasn't too painful. For you, thank you for having me. Like I said, a great honor to make it on the Mega. Well, thank you for that. Skype works so well that it's a pleasure for all of us. I think we all can can agree on that. Thank you

all for listening. Good luck with all your Week six bets in the National Football League.