Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 4 Preview

getting over this cold. It's breaking up now, so so that's good. And I'm very, very very honored to be on the panel with today's esteemed rotating guests. Esteamed Rotating Guests. We'll get to him, but of course on my left it's Todd wishing of everybody from Showtime's docuseries Action and of course a numbers game, weekly appearances on Visa and Todd. What are you in circle right now? Ten and five? I am ten and five and Circus So the end is near? What does that me that you're about to

say you're about to suck royally? Yes? Probably excellent. You've also been very good on this megapod. The both of you have been very good I have sucked. I've been one in two every week and they've lost the teaser. So something's wrong with me. I gotta get off this night. Uh. The Rotating guests that Mike Palm is referring to the esteem Rotating Guests first time on the podcast. He's obviously been on the show on Visa on the Numbers Game

for years now. We can actually say years plural. He hosts the Lombardi Line on Visa in the Vegas Stats and Information Network series x M channel two oh four Saturday and Sunday mornings leading into football. He writes for The Athletic. He of course, has his own podcast, which ranks way higher than this one, I might add in the iTunes rankings, called the GM Shuffle. He does it with add Nan verk And and he's got a book.

It's called Gridiron Genius Ladies and Gentlemen. He's worked with Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick, Al Davis, you name it. It's Michael Lombardi. What's happening, Michael? Not much here? Week four? This is always a good time of the year. I appreciate you having me on. It's good on starting to act, so I think you gave me the ultimate compliment when I said something about Pinnacle the other day. You actually were I'm pressure you with my betting Esteine there. Yes,

that was my big takeaway from that all interview. I was like, wow, it has been Actually, you know what, there were two There were two points Todd actually said, because Todd came on the next day after you were on, and he's and Todd, if I might talk about our conversation about Michael, there were two points that we had in our conversation I think stood above the rest. One if you're playing the Kansas City Chiefs, like run the clock down, shorten the game, right like that was a

big thing that the Ravens didn't do. And what was the other one, Todd that we seized upon. Oh the coaches thing. How you could almost do better just betting coaches in the National Football League. Forget every other little detail. Just do a power ranking of coaches and bet coaches and you might be better off than actually putting your own brain into things. I think that's true, I really do.

I was talking to a coach last night. He's driving home from work, and we were talking about how these teams they don't understand that pass rush really determines how to play the quarterback. So you know, for example, De Troit it's gonna play Kansas City, and they'll copy what

Belichick did against Kansas City. They'll take their two defensive ends and they'll push the pocket back and they'll try to squeeze the two tackles, especially cam Elion is not very good, try to squeeze him in and make the pocket a little uncomfortable for Mahomes and end up going to try to jam Mahomes and the receivers to kind of disrupt the timing. And so the front can really help the quarterback, and coverage help defend the quarterback as

opposed to coverages. But most coaches they don't see that there's an imbalanced pass rush. You'll see three guys on one side of the center and one guy over there at the quarterback scrambles for twenty odds, and the analysis as well, you know they scrambles for twenty ars first down. Now that that should never happen. So those little details that coaches don't see, the good ones do, that's what

you're betting against. Should it ever happen on fourth and five on the last drive of the game, that the quarterbacks should be allowed to run down the Red Sea as the Israelites did going away from Egypt, no one anywhere near him to score the game winning touchdowns. Should that ever happen? Ah? Well, that you know, that's really uh, that's what we call coaching mal practice. I mean, you know. And so it's one thing to play too deep men

under where you lose sight of the quarterback. But if you do that, you better have somebody in the defensive front who's making that pocket very tight and keeping it in there. And no, it should never happen like that. Look, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are you know, I marvel at the pr of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You know, Jason Lights drafted two kickers. He can't I think you can't get a kicker situation solved. And he's got a new

five year contract extension. Bruce Arians has come in as this quarterback guru, and then he's let's change, let's he lets Byron left, which call all the plays, Like we hired you, Bruce, we didn't hire Byron, you know, like like you're the reason you're the highest paid coach on this that you should be calling the plays. You should be running the offense. So the Bucks to me, I

don't know. I was actually having the same conversation with his head coach and we were talking about how bad the Bucks were and and he was like, look, they only give a shit about Manchester United anyway. All those all those Buccaneers receivers were very well covered, Todd. I just want to point that out, very well covered, except they forgot about the quarterback. By the way, I'm glad you cursed right there, Michael, because you are allowed to

curse here. My last experience with Michael Lombardi cursing on podcasts is when you used to do the the old one with your buddy Tate Frasier. Young jim Nance by the way, everybody um and Jimmy, Yeah, Little Jimmy, I call it. Actually, we did a podcast today with Little Jimmy Atman and I hosted a Little Jimmy on. We had a segment where we talked about the great Baker Mayfield and we talked about the clip that I think is the essence of of who the Washington Redskins are.

It was in the Washington Post the other day and Mike Palm, you need to look at this because If you ever see any of your employees down at Circa or at at your hotel's behaving like this, you know your culture is rotten. It's Dwayne Haskins sitting on the bench looking completely in the opposite direction as Kevin O'Connell instructs case Keenum on what to do. Yeah, my beloved Washington Reskins, so bad, so bad. Might be Colt McCoy this weekend we shall see, could be Dwayne Haskins, might

be called McCoy Case Keenum in a walking boot. By the way, what's Tate doing now? I think Kate's as as one of the great Mike. You might know this guy, you know, Mike Tony, Mike Mike. You know Mike tomp Do you know Mike Tony? Michael Tony. Michael Tony used to hang around when I was in Vegas. He would hang around the basketball program. He would come in Tim Gergeritz who's now at the Pistons, Mark Arkantine is at the Nuggets, and I and I was. I had an

office next door of them. So Tony was helping out the football and the basketball program, helping us get comp tickets and all that stuff. And he under the greatest line of all. He said he was in between successes, and I think that's where Tate Fraser is right in

between successes, in between successes. I like that. Um. Just to finish, the last time I was listening to their podcast, UM, I was playing catch with my de facto daughter, a little Gracie, who was eleven years old at the time, when we were playing catch in the room, and I was listening to uh Lombardi on the the old podcast, and then Lombardi starts cursing like a sailor and I had to sprint across the room and shut off the podcast. You are very animated. No, that's quite all right. I

was probably bad. It's was probably something man at something. By the way, Gild, is it possible that on the wonder Lick test, there's not a question saying if the head boats talking to the quarterback, do you a pay attention or be look in the other direction? Seriously, it's not even Dwayne's fault though, right, yes, Gild, you had Haskins is ready to play in the NFL. I don't. I don't see him playing. I don't know what is in the playbook. He's even with it. They could start

him this week. Yeah, I'm not sure that you know. I mean, Mike, Here's what I said tweeting. I was having a tweet storm the other night on Monday Night football, after my favorite who I will never mention his name, after my favorite general manager, who's Fio and one with the Redskins, And I just tweeted this very clearly. I said, I said, you people calling for Askins of the dumbest human beings of all time because the starters aren't ready to play, how do you think the backups could be

ready to play? I got so many tweets like that, like, oh, you think we should put it Haskins against the Bears? Now? Are you kidding me? You'll ruin the kid. Let's get into a gentleman, Let's get into our best bets of the week, Mike, real quick circle million update. How many people at thirteen and two? Three at the top. Yeah, we have three at thirteen and two, and then we have ten at twelve two and one and ten at twelve and three. So there are twenty three people either

at the leader within one game of the leading. Heading into the final week of September, Todd wishnev is in this ship not for the not for the quarterly, but for the for the whole kitten caboodle. He's in this. Yeah, I think if you, if you over the course of the season, hit hit, hit at the rate he's hitting, you're right there in the conversation. Because remember we're talking about Westgate having almost double the amount of people. So I don't think it's going to take that kind of

a percentage to win this thing. Just because of the sample size, right, you won't know. The randomness is that much more muted. Exactly. The nice thing about Circle again again, if you go oh, in twenty the first four weeks, and then you go five and oh week five, it's all good because then you have a three week sprint to try to get a hundred forty seven thousand in the quarterly. So just a great contest over there at Circle. Mike, we start with you, Mike Palm. Actually, you know what,

let's let's go to our guest, Michael Lombardi. Michael, you said you might have a pick or two. What do you like best on this late You know, I like the Denver broncos I think that Denver is a you know, they if you if I were to tell you you that that Denver would not have a fumble, created, would not have a sack, and would not have an interception. After three games, I would say, well, there's another planet

I'm living on. And if I would also tell you that Jill Flacco's numbers, his numbers are similar to what his numbers were in two thousand and fourteen. Now they're not great, don't get me wrong, and they're not great, but he's averaging seven yards per attempt down the field, which is highest since two thousand and fourteen. He's had

five passes over twenty five yards this year. Now, he's not playing great, but what he's been able to do is their defense is only playing about twenty eight minutes, so they're playing less defense, which is one of the things that I love the most is teams that play less defense. Beans you can play good defense. And I think the listen line has moved. It's it's open to three. It's I think the Sharps are playing Denver a little

bit three and a half. We knowe Denver's twenty two and going into the first game of the year against the Bears that they kind of got ripped off and lost, they should be twenty three and oh in the month of September. I Denver to bounce back this week. I think they'll create some turnovers for Gardner, McKay Minshew and uh. And I just hope that they give the ball to for Neet because if there's ever a more overrated player

in the NFL, it's for that. We were talking about him for fantasy purposes today with Todd Wright on the show on a numbers games just awful. I'm just gonna step in, Mike and take my turn on the button because I have Denver two as uh my first best bet. Denver is favored by three. It is extra juice, but it is three across the board. And I agree with everything you're saying, Michael. For the third strade game, Von Miller,

Bradley Chubb, Denver defense, no sack, no turnover forced. If there was a game where Vic Fangio can get his defense to do something, it's against the quarterback who has only had two career starts in Gardner Minshew. Yes, I know, he has a seventy four percent completion percentage, the highest in any players first three career games since the merger minimum seventy attempts. But if there was ever a game that this defense should show up and you're only giving three.

I too, am taking the Roncos is my first bet. The only caveat I will say here, Michael is let's see how long it takes for us to text each other and say, oh my god, we're betting on the Joe Flacco face. That's the only thing. It's the only thing I'm worried about. I'll send that. I'll send that text before the game. I promise you. Flacco sacked six times,

by the way last week in Denver's loss. Mike Palm your first best bet, sir, well, At the risk of offending Michael Lombardi, I'm gonna go to a game that I think the wrong team is favored here and I'm gonna take the Vikings plus two uh at Soldier Field. If not for the fact that Kirk Cousins hasn't won a big game since he threw the Hail Mary against Russell Wilson's Badgers, and he's Lansing, I would bet all of Todd wishnavs, Visa and paycheck on the Vikings on

this game. I how that is bold. I think Minnesota benefits from having this game earlier in the year. Where it's not going to be a frigid soldier field. It should be very nice, almost perfect football weather with a three kick in Chicago. I think that Minnesota is so far the best team in the NFC. They actually dominated Green Bay for three quarters of that game in lambeau Field. I'm very impressed with their ability to run the football right at you, and yet they still have all the

talent at wide receiver and tight end. It's a formidable defense. Uh. I think there's a little bit of a coaching edge in terms of of just from the fact that Naggi is so limited in what he can do with Trabinsky. Now, I thought Trabinsky looked a little better trying to run this hurry up offense. But then again, I remind myself it's the Washington Redskins defense, and you know, a good Texas six A team could go up and down the

field against them as well. So I'm gonna take Minnesota and take a couple of points on the road here against the Bears. You know what, I actually think the Redskins defense is actually pretty good. I just don't think if you give them ten yards to defend right and they're on the field all game along, I don't know that we get a real accurate spate of them. The other thing that Minnesota has done great, They've kept Kirk

Cousins off the field. So Cousins fifteen of twenty one last week a hundred seventy four yards for the second time in two Minnesota wins. They did not even attempt a fourth quarter pass so against Atlanta and then last week again who they played last week? Again? Real quick, I can't remember Minnesota the Raiders both of those games, not a single for fourth quarter past and remember that went against Atlanta. Eleven dropbacks for the whole game, ten

pass attempts from Cousins. So I guess whatever works. Dalvin Cook sixteen for one ten last week after missing nineteen of his first thirty four games. Michael LAMBARTI, did you want to respond to Mike Palm taking the vikings there at all? I love it. I think that when you look at when you look at this game, I mean, you know what you've got is you know we talked about coaching. You know, Mike Zimmers, Uh, Mike Zimmer understands

how to play the great Mitchell Robinsky. Mitchell's average five yards for past attempt in the games that he's had to play. Last year they went to get Last year they won both games only because they could run the ball. Last year they ran for three seven yards in those two games. You know, m v P. Mitch has thrown twenty five passes over ten yards this year, Gil and m v P. Mitchell has completed six of them. So anytime you're getting the points and Mitchell's your opponent, I say, go,

I want to ask you this question. Is there anybody in your guess, in your posts uh NFL employed life, let's say, in your broadcasting life, that you have had in your craws more than Mitchell Drobiski? Does anybody you've hated more? You know? And I don't hate him. I just hate people's ignorance. I hate people thinking that that what you're that you're you're using this as an agenda.

I don't have an agenda, you know. I off readily admit if I would have been the general manager of the Bears, I would have stayed at three and I would have picked the Shawn Watson and I would have probably had to listen to people tell me I should have picked the homes and they were right, you know, But to pick a quarterback that did play one year at North Carolina, didn't get didn't get scholarship to play quarterback at Ohio State, and then trying to convince me

that he's coming around, he's playing better. When he goes against the correndous secondary, throws the ball, Damn they're out of bounds on the deep throw that the kid makes an incredible catch and keeps his feet in bounds. Anytime he throws the ball, you're working extra hard to catch it. Accuracy is something you can't improve in quarterbacks. And so when the game's on the line, look, let's let's be honest here. This game is gonna be a third down game.

Mike Zimmer is one of the best third down coaches in football. This is where he wins. You've got to try to stay away from third down and stay out of that for me and stay out of those situations. And when you look at Mitchell, you know Mitchell's not a good third down The game goes too fast for him. So I'm not I'm not you know, I hate I don't hate the guy, but I do know that if if Mike Zimmer stops the run in this game and puts it on Mitchell and Mitchell has to expend throw

over ten yards. I think that I think Mike Mike Palm is correct. I think that that it's favors, its favors Minnesota take the points and watch Mitchell. Yeah. And I don't mean to and to insinuate that you hate him personally, but just the the game and all the things that you said. I'll say this here. I'll say it on the podcast because I I don't say it on Visa and when we do our segments because it's

a bit of a third rail. But I guess maybe it's because I was also watching the great ESPN one fifty year uh College Football Special America's game and they did one on integration. Um. So this is kind of close to home because my ex father in law was a great high school quarterback African American in Fullerton, California. He later became a great safety for the Over the Hill Gang Washington Redskins. But when he was recruited as a quarterback, his name is Brig brig Owens. His name,

his first name is Brig. He was recruited by b y U and they thought sight unseen. They just saw his stats that he was short for Brigham and so they recruit him at b y U and then when they saw him on campus, they were like, uh no, this can't work. This is back in the sixties. I'm wondering the Robiskie thing where they traded up guy played one year at North Carolina, didn't draft to Shaun Watson, didn't draft Patrick Mahomes. We're are still seeing a lot

of this in football. And I guess what I'm saying is if a black quarterback played one season at North Carolina, would they have traded up to draft him? Like, I really wonder if we still have a little of that still lurking in the NFL. Yeah, I mean I don't.

I think we fall in love with I think Ryan Pace fell in love with potential, and you know, and and I think that anytime you fall in love with potential, because there's no way you take a quarterback in the same conference the guys won the Player of the Conference two years in a row called the a CEC. You take the guy who played at North Carolina one year. Like if I went upstairs and said to Millie, my wife, Look, we're gonna take a guy from the a c C.

But he's not the best quarterback in the conference. He didn't start three years and he didn't win the national championship. Her CPA instincts would say to me, you're an idiot. Go back back to your office. Yeah, And and can I just say, like for people who are like, oh, Gail, you can't say that, I'll give me that. Sam Donald, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen all drafted ahead of Lamar Jackson. Right, Lamar Jackson looks pretty good to me, Gil I I wrote that. I wrote that for the for my article

for the Athletic tomorrow. And if you go to and I don't look, I don't buy a lot of like, I'm not against analytics, so I like objective things like the Madden ratings. I do. I think you know they're completely objective. Whether you agree with it or not. There's no bias in it. So it's based strictly on numbers. For Whisky was the worst quarterback in the Madden ratings.

But if you go to q BR and whether you like to BR or not, and you revisit that draft, that Donald Baker Mayfield draft, I mean, Lamar Jackson has an eighty quarterback rating. They can make sure us a forty think about that. Something to think about. I have two questions. First, of the last three episodes, we did the Thursday night game first, and we just skip that for no reason. To goodness, I'm an idiot. Yes, we should have said, let's let's get your first best bet

and we'll go right to the Thursday game. I'm sorry, I'm gonna make I'm gonna make my best bet the Thursday game to save you, Mr Doctor Gill, and I I am going to go with phil Ladelphia Eagles plus the full. But now, do I like the Philadelphia Eagles? No? Do I think they can run the ball? No? I like what's happening with them this year. No, I don't like any of it. So you say, why do you take the Philadelphia Eagles. Here's why. The Philadelphia Eagles are

oh and three against the spread. The Green Bay Packers are three and oh against the spread. In my short life of gambling on football, if you take teams that are oh and three against the spread versus teams that are three and o against the spread, you tend to do well. Can I make a case for how the Philadelphia Eagles, down by ten in the last two minutes

will get a backdoor touchdown to lose by three. I can can I also see the Philadelphia Eagles mustering everything they have for this game in order to stay in the race at one and two right now, Yes, I can do. I think the Green Bay Packers are amazing. Well. I think they played great on defense against Robinsky, But we've just heard what Mike Lombardi said about Dr Biski. I think they really should have lost the game against

the Minnesota Vikings and that wasn't that great. And this past week they got to play Fannie Pack Fangio at home. So what have they really accomplished in this in this season so far? Nothing amazing? Four points at the Lauder in an NFL game. The Philadelphia Eagles are still a pro team. I like Peterson, give me the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. I think you should do all of your betting capsules by answering your own questions. Call in response.

I think this, No, I do not. I'm in the question and answer mode because I'm watching a lot of congressional hearings today. Take care to care to give your politics on that todd at all? Do you want now? I'm gonna pass. I'm gonna pass. I've already stepped on race. You might as well stop step on politics. You'll have no listeners by the time I'm done, Gill, I know I won't. Philadelphia at Green Bay is the Thursday night game. I should have started there. I am not right for

having forgotten that, but Todd saves me here. Uh sick. Mike Palm, do you have any thoughts on tonight's game? If I played the game, I think I would lean Packers first half just because of the way these two teams have played so far. The Packers have been much better, excuse me, in first half of games, and the Eagles have been awful in first half of the game. I mean they were. They got down seventeen to nothing to the Washington Redskins for God's sakes. Uh down at the halfway, right, yeah? Yeah,

down at the half. Well, the Packers have played well in first half, and and you know, look how they came out against Minnesota in the first quarters. So I would lean to Lane three in the first half with the Packers here. Forty five of the packers fifty eight points this year, fifty eight have been scored in the first half. Michael Lombardi, Does that tell you something about Matt Lafleur and coaching staff right off the bat at

half times. Yeah, it does, you know, And I think I'm I'm I leaned towards I think both calls are the right for me, the right calls. I think when you look at the Eagles, they've only scored twenty three first half points all year. We know that the Packers are first to have point team at last week seven drops. You know the really the Eagles gave that game away and the concern you have the Eagles their number one sacker on their team is Zundejo in the free safety.

That doesn't work if you're Jim Schwartz. Your defensive line has to control the game. Their defensive lines beat up. But I do think that on a short week. Carson Wentz is only five and eight in his last third team games, he's when you pressure them. But I just have a feeling they're gonna come out and this is the first time I really think that the Packers are gonna get challenged with the quarterback who can move, can make plays, and I think that they can handle it.

They'll run the ball out of the spread. When you look at the Green Bay defense when they have to play against shotgun formation. That the teams have carried the ball twenty three times for a hundred seven yards, it's almost five yards to carry. I think that's why the Eagles will do it. And I think the Eagles are well. I think the Eagles could win out right, and I do think they'll cover. Yeah, Eagles are nothing for me tonight. I could tease them. I could play him on the

money line. I'm all about the Eagles tonight catching the four. Mike, Paul, you needs a tissue, man? You okay? Back there? Well, no, I'm alright, so wonderful Gil before we go to the second pick, can I ask Mike Lombardi a quick questions? Okay, Mike Lombardi, here's my question. I love I've been listening to you since you were way way back on Bill Simmons and then with GM Street and blah blah blah. I love when you are just so candid about how

you feel about these teams. Do you get a lot of blowback from NFL people because you're like, Mike, why are you throwing my guy this guy under the bus and this guy under the bus and this guy under the bus. Do you get blowback No, I don't get any blowback. I mean, I talked to a lot of people in the league and a lot of people like listen to the podcast, my podcast, the GM Shuffle. I think it's pretty much that they know I'm I'm That's just the way I've always been, and I've always been honest.

I can't really fudget. I'm not going to be political and say, oh, you're playing great today, you know, by the way, Baker Mayfield, you know, it's okay. You've got twenty one passes knocked down at the you know, and Patrick Mahomes only has three. That's not a problem. You know. I'm not gonna do that. I think I thought that was the most refreshing thing about Rex Ryan coming out about Baker Maysher. He finally made a stand about something, you know, like like you have opinions, like you gotta

give your opinions. So I don't really get much blowback. I'm sure I'm not probably popular in Los Angeles and the Rams. I mean McVey I talked to McVeigh, but on their front office probably doesn't talk to me because I think they just gave one of the most ridiculous contracts to a guy in the last in the last eleven games, that's throwing eleven touchdown passes and eleven interceptions

and the averages under seven yards per passion attempt. You know, you want to give a hundred eighty million dollars to that guy? Feel free? That's a great question, Todd. I've always wanted to ask Michael that maybe I have in the past, but I certainly think that's a great question. And I do like that that Jared Golf take, and you and I got into this little Michael the other

day because I agree with that. I really felt like, and this is like again would make NFL heads explode and fans has this club, But I really felt like Jared Golf might have been the first guy, the first quarterback who was drafted high, who they would have had on a rookie contract, tried to win as much as possible with him, and then said to themselves, he is what he is, but we're not going to give him all this money, and they would have essentially started from scratch.

We've never seen that in the NFL, and obviously it's not happening here because they threw a hundred and thirty four million at him, a hundred and ten guaranteed. Good lord, it's awesome. Good for him. All right, let's do the second best bets. Michael Lombardi, do you have a second guest best bet or did you want to just uh staying after the Denver pick? Well, you know, I uh, I mean the games that I like, the ones that I talked about on my podcast is uh. You know.

I talked about green Day and Philadelphia. I like them. I talked about Denver and Jacksonville. I really like Seattle and laying the points against Arizona. I don't Arizona didn't struggle. They struggled back against Carolina. Carolina only allowed a hundred twenty seven yards passing. I think Seattle. I think Groan Wilson is having an MVP season now. They've turned the ball over too much and it's always about the ball to ball the ball when you're dealing with pet Carroll.

But I just think that to me, these are two teams that are just different, and one team's coming off a loss, and the level of importance is far greater for Seattle. They can't get behind. They've got to get more out of clowning. I think Iron Zoom will play this week. Clowning has had one sack and one harry all season. They need to get much more out of him to be able to be effective. But I think in this game without Patrick Peterson, that secondary is really bad.

And I think what you see Wilson in average and eight point six yards per tenth a hundred nineteen quarterback rating, seven touchdown passes, one interception, you know, and so they got to find a way to get the pressure on the passer. And I think that Russell Wilson will do that. And as long as this line stays four or under, I think it's at five now. It opened at four, it moved, it moved to five. I liked it really

at four. I think at five I still would take it in five and a halfs to but five is the can sense is still Seattle was like my fifth or sixth highest picks. So they can't make my top three here. I don't hate it, that's for sure. Okay, I'm gonna go to a total here. I'm gonna take the Patriots and the Bills under forty two and a half. I think you're dealing with two of the top five defenses in the NFL. With when I think the Patriots are the best defense, but the Bills have been very

good early in the year as well. You're gonna have a big game here, a divisional matchup, and I think this game will be played pretty close to the vest in Orchard Park. We've seen this game traditionally be low scoring when it is an Orchard Park. I make this number myself about thirty nine and a half, so I thought there would be some value here, uh in the under at forty two and a half. All right, what were you last week on the show? By the way, you three oh two and one. We lose the total

with the pick six by the Jets. We were just dead wrong on the Eagles, Gale Um. We pushed the push the Broncos total, and then we hit the teaser. So yeah, I guess the teaser. My teasers was Chiefs and Vikings one. Yeah. We were just dead wrong on the Eagles last week, although they dropped seven passes, as Lombardi said, so you know it could have gone the other way. But yeah, that that that I don't chuck that up as a bad beat or a coin flip.

In the end, that's just a loss. And I had the Eagles and a teaser too, so I got screwed there. Todd picked two second pick right before. I just want to ask party because it is a Patriot UM insider. Have you ever seen and I'm not asking this because I had the Jets team total under end last week? Have you ever seen the Patriots gave up a special teams and uh pick six in the same game in the history of Bill Belichick. No, I think that's a rarity. Uh,

we gave up Let's see. Yeah, we did it against Philadelphia Todd in two thousand and fifteen at the end of the at the end of the at the end of the half, we got a block punt for a touchdown against the Eagles. And then to start the second half week, it's fourteen before we built fourteen fourteen nothing

to lead. Eagles came back, blocked the kick at the end of the half to to make it fourteen fourteen, and we started the second half, took it all the way down the field and Malcolm Jenkens picked it off and returned to four touchdown. They went up feen. They beat us that day. So it's happened before, but it's uncommon. And I think that what Mike said about this Patriot defense is is dead on. I think his his total is right. I think this will be two defenses that

will really dominate the game. I think the Patriots will struggle to move the football against the Bills front, especially considering that Marshall Newhouse is the left tackle and they're gonna have to do everything in their power to help him against Jerry Hughes. So I think the unders the play. How about if your Jared's did him right now? Your third pass, you throw the pick six, you get benched it for Brady. He actually Beljick puts Brady back in

the game. And now you signed Cody Kessler off the scrap here. Well, I think I can explain that. So here's Belotix methodology, and this is what makes him so good. He Brady's forty two years old, he can't practice, and they want to give him a day off. Well, it's hard to give him a day off when you only have two quarterbacks, right, So there's no quarterback he could put on the practice squad that he felt like he could actually have to put in a game if something

happened to Brady. So he brings Kessler in. So really Kessler is like he's on his practice squad, but he's not because he has to carry him on the fifty three man roster. He'll educate him, get him caught up to teaching the offense, probably cut him in a week or two, let him sit out there, and then when he needs to bring him back and the guy has already had work, or just hang onto him, depending on

what his roster manipulation needs to be. But also it gives him a chance on Wednesday to give Brady a complete day off and not where stid him out. This guy is not going to take any reps away from Stidham. He's not gonna jump stid him. He's just gonna be there to help with an arm and somebody to learn the offense. And this is classic Belicheck, thinking about twelve games down the road, ten games down the road, not tomorrow. That's why we have you on the show, Michael, roster manipulation.

That's exactly, that's right, what's going on. I have no doubt you want me to give my second pick now because we got Plice waiting, right. So my second pick is the under forty seven and a half in the Carolina Houston game. And here's why. The Carolina Panthers had their backup quarterback who just might be better than Cam Newton uh and run rough shot all over Arizona. I don't think that same backup quarterback, while he may be better than Cam, is going to run rough shot all

over the Houston defense. In Houston, Houston's defense put really really threw a zero against Minshew until the last intil the last drive. Um. They even went into San Diego and held Rivers down. I think they're a very good defense. If they can get ahead, they're gonna run the ball like crazy. Because Mr Bill O'Brien, first and ten run up the middle, second and eight run up the middle, third and six try to get the first down. He loves to run the clock. He loves to run the ball.

He loves to be uncreative. He is Mr uncreative at Bill Belichick is Mr creative, Mr Bill O'Brien and Mr Uncreative uncreate of leads to the clock being drained. The clock just tick tick tick tick tick tick tick. And guess what I'm going under the forty seven and a half because I think it's gonna be a typical Houston ball game where it's gonna be like twenty three to twenty one or one to eighteen or some crazy number because they run the clock. You just like using the

word rough shot. How many how many times in life? By the way, have you used the word rough shot? Not in the context of run rough shot in the National Football League. It's interesting. But I also you've battened down the hatches this week on your other show, which is another one of my favorites, because old Jimmy g better battened down the hatches or it's gonna be a

long season than the niner Lands. That's right. It's usually hurricane talk, bad dada hatches, like actually protecting yourself from hurricane, but Todd managed to use it there. Um. My second pick is the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs. I'm going with the Chiefs. They're given six on the road at what's called six and a half to be fair, that's consensus on the road at Detroit. And this is nothing more than me saying it's the Chiefs by less than a touchdown.

I don't care where they are. They're at Detroit and Matt Patricia, this gets back to that coaching thing I talked about where I'm just gonna do my power rankings on coaches. I like Andy Reid a whole bunch better than I like Matt Patricia. And as long as you give me the Chiefs lesson a touchdown. Look at last week, Lamar Jackson needed circus plays like just throwing the ball up in the air. Miraculously Ravens receivers came down with

it for Kansas City backers to lose that bet. That was the magic of Lamar Jackson, who can get away from anything. I'll take the same exact number on Kansas City on the road this time, mind you, I get it. But I'll take the exact number on the road against Detroit, who I fear not at all. And I know people are high on Detroit. They are undefeated, they are two oh and one. But you know what proved me wrong.

I'll take the Kansas City Chiefs offense every day of the week when it's less in a touchdown minus six and a half. Here Chiefs my second pick. By the way, Gil, I love it because guess what. Detroit had two games that were given to them, and the other game was that debacle in Arizona, total debacle. I had them first weekend. We both did just horrific. I think you know, I think the team speed of the Chiefs, I think the Chiefs are always gonna be primed for a backdoor cover.

I mean, I I learned. I listened to you today talk about uh being right on picks and coming out. You know, these guys like Mike, these guys are thirteen

and two. It's truly there is a degree of luck because I don't think you could have handicapped that getting better than thinking the Chiefs were gonna beat the Ravens by more than five and a half, and yet you still lost because you're up thirty to thirteen, your kid misses an extra point right and then and then you have this huge lead, and then when the clock becomes

your opponent, they don't care about the spread. So in this sports handicapping world, you've got to almost look at the you have to look at the clock as a dimension that you're dealing with as well. And so you know, I definitely think the Chiefs will beat the Lions. I think the Lions, like Todd said, are are much fortunate team.

They've avoid losing before they've won. But I've always I'm scared to death that these backdoor covers are gonna catch you on this because the Chiefs are not that great on defense, and they'll they'll deal with the clock as opposed to the opponent. It is a great point to make always susceptible to the back door. I guess with the Chiefs, I'm gonna need to be beaten over the head twice before I stopped doing it with the Chiefs. But Lamar Jackson was one thing. But if Detroit can

do it again, tip of the cap for me. But it is a valid point. Todd was was harping on the back door covers at nauseum. May I use that nauseum for you to I had Todsum do it because it's so so much of the NFL comes down to the back door cover's. I hate to say it, but you have to handicap it. And and you know on your show on Wednesdays, I go on there and I talk about who got the back door touchdowns and who didn't.

And if you don't keep track of it, folks, you're gonna to get well, you know, I think the point that we made on that show, and kudos to you for making it when we were kids, right, whether it was the Redskins or the Giants or the Niners of the Cowboys, whatever dynasty, whatever many dynasty we had going on in those days, those teams would blow out opponents every single game, right, and they would not those It would be nothing for those teams to win games by

thirty points week in and week out. Today. We just don't see that in today's NFL, and we and you wonder there has to be a reason for that, like all the dynamics that are in play, and so much of that is perhaps the talent is more evenly spread across the board, but a lot of it has to do with the officiating, right, the fact that that everybody has such an offensive advantage now, the way that flags are drawn, and so it's probably easier for worst teams

to keep games close. I mean, Michael, I don't know what your theories are on that, but there's there are so many dynamics that make games not as consistently blow up natured in this era. Yeah, I mean, I think to me, it's especially with the Chiefs. I know. One thing about Andy Reid is you never really have to worry about him going conservative on you, like if he's actually if he's behind, you're in a better position to

handle the over the cover. Then when if he's ahead, because he's you know, he's gonna keep trying to score. I mean, I've always said Andy Reid's like the fat guy at the buffet lin He's just gonna keep scoring and scoring and scoring. He don't care, you know, and he doesn't He never works three dimension like he did in the Patriot game at home. But I do think that the speed of this game is too much for Detroit, and especially the slaves hurt, and then they're gonna and Melvin.

They're going after Melvine like you can't. I mean, he will be Harold Melvin and the blue notes. By the time this game for Chards, Melville will be done and there will be no Py Teddy Pendergrass to save him either. Excellent R and B referencing from Michael Lombardi. I love that Teddy Pendergrass. Of course he went onto solo fame and it was tragically paralyzing the what a great great voice Teddy Pendergrass at back in the day. Okay, so final picks and Michael, so, Michael's kind of given three.

Philadelphia was one of yours, Denver was the other. And you like Seattle May, I asked Michael Lombardi a question before I get my third picks, since Todd's already asked two yes, please of course, Michael. I I believe that if he stays healthy, that Patrick Mahomes may go down as, if not the greatest, one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL from the skill set that he's shown so far. Your thoughts on that, you know, Mike, I watched him every week and I'm marveled at him.

I mean, he's truly remarkable. He has incredible sense instincts in the pocket, he feels the pressure, never takes his eyes off the field, he throws it down the field. The fact he's played three games and only three of his football's have been touched by the opponent, just three, As I've mentioned, Baker Mayfield's had twenty one touched by the opponent, right, So you can't get your ends on

the ball. He can escape, He's elusive, and then he forces you to defend every single blade of grass vertically and horizontally. So the way the game is today and the way the way his talent sets up for the game today, I could not I could not the three with that statement. I mean he's remarkable. And let me say this, I love DeShawn Watson, and I think Deshaun

Watson has flat out remarkable. I mean, the first three weeks of the season, Deshaun Watson is great, but my Homes just does it at such a little higher level. Poor Deshaun Watson until last week, twelve consecutive games getting sacked four times. I believe it was just ridiculous. You know, Gil, I think he I think he I think he does that. It's a little bit like, uh, it's just his style of play. I mean, he's not a true rhythm thrower. He's gonna hold the ball a little longer than you want.

But some of the escapes that he's gotten out of are just flat out remarkable. And then he breaks place down with his unique ability. Eight games in a row with four sacks. Pardon me, eight games, not twelve. Still one question before Mike gives his pick. You said, Patrick Mahomes has only had three balls touched by an opponent three passes. Where are you getting those numbers from? That's amazing. Well,

you know stack pass has them. If you go to stack pass Think or whatever that site, or if you go to the clubs most of the times you can go to the clubs, uh, the the releases. They keep track of passes defended by the opponent and passes defended by your team. And I've always looked at that because that tells you who's making plays on the football. You can't you can't get an incomplete pass if you don't break it up. I mean mostly you know you've got

to hope for a drop and so the team. And it also is an indication of team speed of your defense. So if you have don't have a lot of passes defended, you don't have pretty good team speed. The other alia you want to evaluate team speed and is in fumbles forced fumbles, because the speed at it's Einstein's theory, a velocity, you know, power and specs, you know whatever that is. I'm not a math major, but you know, and so that you can see it. And I always look at

whose fource bumbles. It truly goes back to your team. Speedy defensive lineman that run after the football. They tackled the running back from behind with speed, that ball comes out. Love it stat task P A. S. S Got. My final best bet is the Sunday night game. And I'm gonna take the two and a half points with the home dog, New Orleans Saints against the Dallas Cowboys. A couple of facts. I preach, preach, Mike, I'm with you. I still think that that Superdome is a tough place

to play for an opponent Number one, number two. I think there's a huge coaching mismatch in this game between Peyton and coach Clapper. Number three. I think the more time Teddy Bridgewater gets behind center in these games and with this offense, the more comfortable he's going to become um and he will continue to to improve as he is he fills in for Breeze for the next five or six weeks. I think Kamar gives him so many options both catching the ball and running the ball out

of the backfield. I think this Dallas offense will have trouble with the noise and the dome. And I really think that New Orleans is a side that's gonna win this game. Not just covered the two and a half on Sunday night. I think the wrong team is favorite. I don't know if you heard my rand on guessing lines on Monday, um I was shocked that this spread was what it was Dallas has beaten nobody, right, the Redskins, the Giants, and the Miami Dolphins. Um, and it's it's

it's still the Superdome, it's still prime time. And yeah, I'll take the points, thank you very much. And yes, the coaching is the other thing. Again, getting back to the coaching rankings. Sean Payton against the Clapper copyright Michael Lombardi. I'll take that every day, Michael. I would add this to Look, I'm a big believer in you're coming back to the lead at some point. So Prescott's been unbelievable, right,

I mean, you know he's played the Miami secondary. We know what they are, the Giants secondary, really bad, Redskins secondary, really bad, pretty bad secondary. So he's got a nine point eight yard per attempts so so far, his career is seven five. He's got nine point six touchdown percentage. His career is four point eight. He's got a seventy five point five percentage of completion, his career sixty six. His quarterback rating is this year, it's career ninety seven

point nine. At some point, it's coming back to the met at some point. Now I'm not saying you can improve, but it's gonna come back to the mean and eventually, and it's games like this that gets it back to the met and I think that that's really going to be the issue you pick, man. So so your final I'm writing them all down. Your final pick is New Orleans plus two and a half kill. Yes, I have been screaming about it all week. Okay, So so my final pick is going to be the over now now

tread carefully, folks. The over forty nine in the Washington New York Giant game. I believe this game has already moved up, so it's probably not a great idea to be taking a bad number. But you know me, I do things that are bad ideas all the time. Um, over forty nine in this game. And here's why the New York Giants defense is or riffing. I watched that Bill's game. They made Josh Allen look like the second coming of Joe Montana. He was literally just throwing it

down the wide open people. The Giants didn't stop Tampa Bay last year, I mean last week, and in fact, they even let him get into field goal range on the last drive. So the Giants, we know, cannot play defense. The Washington Redskins we know cannot play defense. And with that being said, Danny Dimes is the quarterback in New York who actually showed a little spunk last week in Tampa Bay. Now he gets to play in front of the home crowd. I think he's gonna be able to

score on Washington. I think case Keenum is gonna be able to even though I don't like case Keenum. I think he can score against the putrid, abhorrent New York Giants secondary I'd say over forty nine thesaurus listening to this podcast, it might be Colt McCoy. Keep in mind, Case Keenum is in a walking boots, so could be Cool McCoy better, even better. I like Colt McCoy even better than thank you. I love Colt McCoy, I really do. I don't love Cole McCoy. But cold McCoy has never

done anything wrong in a redskin uniform. Let me just point that out. He's limited, but he's never done anything truly wrong in redskin uniform. I think the Redskins might win this game. But the over is the play for Todd. Forty nine is the number Todd? Is that what you're saying? I see forty nine and forty nine and a half. Okay, So over for Todd, we'll give you the forty nine consensus on that one, all right. Yeah, and and Gil, I think it's a great call and open a six

and a half. And now it's up to forty. I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets to fifty. Okay. Support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a must for three major reasons. One their first of post odds, too, they take the highest limits in three. Most importantly, they pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player. That is everything in this day and age.

Bookmakers a highvolume sports book best suited for the sophisticated player who understand sports betting. They also cared to large recreational players as well, and their motto is where the lines originate, because it cs are the sports book at which you've been betting follows their lines anyway. So right now, if you visit Bookmaker dot eu slash GILL that's Bookmaker dot U slash g I l L, you can claim an exclusive welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars.

That's bookmaker dot eu slash GIL. Bookmaker dot U slash g I l L to join and claim your welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now. Remember the three characteristics. First to post odds, take the highest limits, and never kick out a winning player bookmaker dot eu slash GIL. Final two questions, gentlemen of the show. We close out each and every show with these, have been doing it for years on the megapod. The first is of all the big favorites on the board, what about

the teasers? Gil? The teasers? I don't even know the format of my whole new show. Do I teasers? First? You're right, Todd, Todd, maybe you should take this chair? Uh? Teasers? What is your teaser the week? Let's start there. We'll give Michael Lombardi a little time to think about it, because I don't think I prepped them on teaser of the week, Mike Palm, what would be your teaser of

the week? On My Guys in the Desert on Monday, Brent, you know, return very crest ball and after having watched his Raiders just get dismantled in Minnesota, Brent and I told them that I've I've come up with a formulaic teaser for your show. I'm going to do the same thing every week until I'm wrong. I'm always going to tease the Chiefs down, and I'll tease the team that's playing the Raiders down. So let's take the Yeah, let's take the Chiefs minus a half in Detroit. And you've

already talked about this game, Gail. Detroit has been extremely fortunate that their two oh and one having been gifted all of those victories and ties and uh, and then the Colts will tease them down to one against the Raiders. I just don't see what's to like about this team. Um, Michael, You've spoken at length about the philosophy and what are they and what they're trying to do in the mumbo

jumbo that that orderzation is. And now they go to Indianapolis traveling on this ridiculous schedule where they don't get to go back to Oakland until November. So I like the Colts here big, but I'll use them in the teaser minus one and I just add I'll just step in here to mine was pick any two of the Chiefs, the Colts and the Ravens. As a tease because I love the Ravens against the Browns as well, so they might be one of my circuit picks for all I know.

But any combination of those three teams Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts, I like that, Todd. I'm gonna go similar but a little different. I'm gonna go with Indie as well, because I like everything Mike Palm said, and I agree the Raiders are fraudulent, Craik. They start superior coach than Mr Gruden.

I'm gonna go with Indie, and then I'm gonna use the New England Patriot minus one and just win the game at Buffalo if Bill Belichick could somehow figure out a way not to give up a special team and a defense, again refusing to call them Patriots the Patriots for Todd at Buffalo the other the other end of his teaser, would you have any thoughts on the teaser, Michael, You know, I would take the Rams and and get that number down that mine is two. I think the

Rams will win, I don't think they'll cover. And then I really, you know, I really would like the Minnesota Vikings and getting nine and a half. If I could get that, that would be like walking in the park. If I could get those two, those two would be my teaser. We'll we'll give you the rams down to three, and we'll give you the vikings up to eight and a half. About that. So I only get six points on a teaser, Okay, great, then I'll take that. That's fy.

You've given me almost a touchdown without an extra point with Mitch Robiski on. I'll take that every day there there are teasers, of course that are six and a half or seven, but for our purposes on this show, we can find at six. Okay, Todd, Now it's two question time? Is the final two questions? Now I believe you've got it right. Jesus, what is wrong with me? I'm losing brain sales by the way. All right, So the first of the final two questions, which are the

big favorites? Do you believe is the most likely to lose outright? Not saying you're predicting it, but of this group, what is the team that you think is the most ripe for an outright upset? And I will take it as six point favorites and higher for the purposes of today's show. So the candidates are Baltimore, Ravens six and a half let's call it seven point favorites at home against Cleveland, Kansas City six and a half point favorites

on the road against Detroit. As we mentioned New England seven point favorites on the road at Buffalo, the l A Chargers fifty and a half point favorites on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Colts we mentioned seven point favorites at home against Oakland, and finally the l A Rams nine point favorites at home against Tampa Bay. Michael Lombardi, which of those big favorites do you believe is the most likely to lose? Outrightmore Baltimore? Interesting? Is that because

you can see Cleveland stepping it up? Or is that more of a damning of Baltimore? I think a little bit of Baltimore Secondary. You know, they got torched a little bit by uh By, not a little bit the torch tremendously by Arizona. They got torched by Kansas City. They don't have Jimmy Smith. I think I think, you know, I think they could get beat this game. The bacteria filled Mike poem. What do you got? This is a tough one because uh I'm I'm between New England and

I think we did well last we did. We all said Tampa Bay. I'm gonna go with Michael. I think you, oh, b Jake can hit him, hit that secondary couple of times. You know that the Browns have a talented defense. So yeah, I'll go with Baltimore. I almost this, for the record, I almost went with almost. I think you're right. I think that New England games will be hard game. But go ahead. I'm sorry, No, that's all right. New England and honorable Mention Todd, same thing for you. I'm gonna

go with Baltimore too. I mean the Cleveland Baltimore game as well. And the reason is last year end of the season, Cleveland played Baltimore really, really tough. If you remember, it was a third down in ten where um Mr Jesus Baker Mayfield through the ball behind his sever Otherwise they would have been in first Uh, they would have been in field goal range to hide the game, I believe, or even win it. I can't remember. I think they were down too at the time, but they played them

real tough last year. The other thing is Baltimore played Arizona at home last week before the Kansas City game, and it was only seventeen. They never really put their foot on the throat of Arizona and just killed them like I thought they were going to. They let Kyler Murray run around and stay in that game, which means to me, maybe Baltimore is not as great as we think. Now. I don't really think they're gonna lose this game, but you know, Cleveland's got some talent, and maybe they get lucky.

I'm gonna say New England as mine, and just really as a default because I just like it more than the others. As the answer to that question. In other words, I don't see Kansas City losing. I like Baltimore, so I'm not gravitating that way. The Chargers can't lose as a fifteen and a half point favorite, can they can they? Uh? And then the Colts I don't see losing or the Rams. So for me, the default answer would be New England on the road Division game at Buffalo. For me, Baltimore Cleveland,

I'll still take John. I love analytics hardball over Freddy Kitchens. Like Freddie Kitchens to me, is that is your story is great there, Todd, but I just like this is a different staff and I just don't know about Freddie Kitchens at all. That thing he did at the end of that game where he the end of the Jets game still rings in my head. Oh, I don't like him either. Yeah, I don't like him either. I'm just saying, if we have to pick somebody, that's right, you have

to pick someone alright. Final question, then, gentlemen, if we lived in a bizarro world and you were betting aside on all fifteen of these games, because we do have two buys, the Jets and the Niners, uh, let's say instead of all fifteen, you could get one free pass, you had to been on fourteen of the fifteen. What is the game on the spread that you would want

no part of whatsoever? Michael Lombardi, That's always a hard one. I, on my instincts, tell me the Tennessee Atlanta because I don't like either team, and when I don't like either team, I stay away from I like that answer. I think that's my answer to Tennessee Atlanta. I have no feel for that game whatsoever. Palm. I think it's this game in South Florida between the team that never plays to win, the Chargers. They always played, not to lose against the

team that's playing to lose, the Dolphins. I can't. I don't. I couldn't tease this either way. I couldn't. I have no I have no feel because Anthony Lynde, I just can't deal with him ever in my life again. I mean what he does in the second half of these games is Look, if you watch the first half of that game between the Texas and the Chargers, how would you think they were going to lose that game? If you watch the first three quarters of the game in Detroit,

how would you think they're gonna lose that game? It's just remarkable. I even like the Monday night game Pittsburgh Cincinnati better than I like Chargers Miamis. I think I would agree there, Todd, which would you want to? I have to go with Tennessee and Atlanta too, because I look at Atlanta is such a jackal and high ridiculous team. How do you figure out when Matt Ryan's gonna throw

the ridiculous interception? How do you figure out whether it's gonna be Mike Rabel with a great game plan going into Dallas and winning on the road last year, or playing a game way above their head and beating somebody, or on the other hand, just laying an egg like they did against Jacksonville. They're so hard to figure out. So to me, they're both crazy teams. I'm out, all right, I'm out. I'm out, and he's out for the show

as well. Thank you to everybody really appreciated, not only Todd, wished him and Mike Palm of course the staples of the show. Thank you gentlemen for taking the time, but Michael Lombardi a mensh. Thank you for doing this man, I appreciate it is my pleasure, my pleasure. I enjoyed the company. Thank you. I learned a lot to the Thank you, Thank you, and hopefully we can get you back here at some point later in the season. Nikkil Alexander, sorry for not knowing the format of my own show.

Thank god Todd was here. Good luck with all your bets this weekend of the Nashville Footballers. On both back that battle, but both