Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 3 Preview

of a sore throat, Gail. But we're here for you. Might be mono, mono nucleosis. By the way, I'm thinking pneumonia. I'm thinking that. You sound pretty excited about it. You're like, I'm thinking maybe maybe a pneumonia. If I had mono, I'll be out of five weeks. Like Donald, I can't afford that. Well, you're not playing a contact sport. Your spleen won't be in jeopardy. I think you can still. By the way, I had mono in college. It's exhausting,

the whole things exhausting. I don't know how Donald got it. It's like a freshman in college. That kid. Anyway, that's Mike Palm. On my left, Ladies and Gentlemen, the star of the Showtime docu series Action and Wednesday Staple on a numbers game at Visa every Wednesday morning, seven and nine Pacific, tend New and Eastern Ladies and Gentlemen, Todd wishing that Hello Toddy? Hey, uh, Todd? Could you recap how you did last week again on the show that was your Best Bets? How do you do on the

Megapod last week? I think I was one in two. I had the Jacksonville plus eight, and I lost the Bears minus two and a half in the vic Bangio Bowl and the uh and then of course I had the over and the Saints game and Drew Breeves got injured, so that was kind of painful. I lost my teeth because of Carolina. Yeah, I lost my tease. Also, I went one in two. I did the same record week two as I did week one, neither of which is good. One and two on the Best Bets, and I blew

the teaser because of Carolina. Mike, how do you do three and two? And so ka? But one and two on the megapod narrowing it down to three, so that sucks. I was three and oh with the best bets uh San Francisco, Buffalo and under in the Bears Denver game, but blew the teaser with by a point with the Baltimore I buried the headline three and oh from Mike Palm. You are pretty hot in baseball too, aren't you. Right now,

we're doing okay. We were looking forward to some end game today, but one of the major providers is struggling to uh to give that option. William Hill, for I will say what Mike will not. William Hill not really providing in games today technical issues they have. According to William Hill, ladies and gentlemen, he is our rotating guests often on the megapod. He is always our first of the year and this is no different this year from Vison.

I can actually call him a Visa host. He hosts the Green Zone over at Visa and of course for all your golf needs in the Las Vegas area, please call Tea Times USA. Oh oh, by the way, he won a super contest back in Tleven with his son SUSI team. It's our friend Brady Cannon. What up, Brady? How are you? Man? Uh? You know, I appreciate you having me on to lead off I found a pretty

comfortable place for myself as the leadoff man. But you know, usually week one and I always say, you know, I can make a few bone head picks and nobody cares because it's week one. You know, you're dealing with a lot of unknown and expectations are pretty low. Now you have me on in week three, and I feel like I have to sound a lot smarter. Well, no, you just be yourself as always, no matter what. I greatly appreciate you being your Rickey Henderson. Thank you you are

my Ricky Henderson. By the way, when I mentioned that you were a Super Contest winner and I mentioned the year eleven, would you prefer that I no longer mentioned the year. No, No, that's a great year for me. I also won the member guest at Red Rock Country Club that year, So two thousand and eleven is uh forever etched in my personal resume. All right. You know Richard stand who won, He wants me to just shut

up about the year. So because it was you know, it's old school back then and fewer contestants, so he said, it sounds has much more gravitas when I just say Super Contest winner. So okay, new format. Brady, you are familiar with the new format. We start out with thoughts on the Thursday night game today, another barn burner, Ladies and gentlemen, another barn burner on a Thursday night. Uh, Tennessee is at Jacksonville. Tennessee is a one and a half or two and a half point favorite, somewhere in

that pocket. Let me give you the consensus right now. I'm seeing that it's a two point consensus across the board. Tennessee at Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew Uh starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And this really weird thing where Jalen Ramsey wants out of Jacksonville, has demanded a trade, but will yet play for Jacksonville tonight. In fact, Adam Schefter reported there was another NFL team that called the league and said, hey, uh, if he plays for Jacksonville Thursday, can he played for

us on Sunday? And the league was like, no, you can't do that. So Brady, let's start with you. You're the guest. You get honors. Any thoughts, any pre flop play on this game tonight, No free flop play. I made the Jaguars actually a one point favorite here, so I lean taking the points with him. And let's also note you guys know there's not that much of a difference between a one point favorite and a one and a half point underdog, So uh not like my line

was way off. But division game, you know, the first few weeks of the season, division games typically the dog affairs pretty well. Plus the dog is at home, obviously, I think the home team tends to have an advantage on a short week. Now, there's film out on Gardner Minshew, now, so he could regress. But I think this kid is pretty good. And you know, look at the quarterbacks that Mike Leach has turned out out at Washington State, Luke Falk Minshew, I wouldn't be surprised, uh if we never

see Nick Foles as the starter again in Jacksonville. I think this kid is gonna be pretty good. But like you alluded to, Gil, probably a pretty typical ugly, dumb Thursday night game. Um but I lean with the Jags. No play just uh just observed asition this evening, while we while we go through the in game opportunities on the green zone on Visan By the way, there you go, which is when give the hours that will be six pm?

Pacific nine pm Eastern. We're on for four hours. Would go through all the in game opportunities in both baseball, college football and the Thursday night game tonight all right, VISA in the Vegas Stats and Information Network for those tuning in for the first time, Serious XM channel two oh four. UM, I am totally treating this game tonight as I did Monday Night's game, which is play it

in game. It turned out to be a nice in game fest on the Browns uh and for those who went under e under, over and over on end games, was a good in game fest on Monday night. So I'll watch and I'll bet accordingly. Maybe I might throw Jacksonville into a tease because it goes through the three and the seven, maybe, although that's not going to be involved in my teaser of the week. Or maybe it will Mike anything for tonight, Flop, I'm going to take

the same attitude as you, Gil. I'm gonna watch the game play out and look for an end game opportunity. But mostly I'll prob to be watching Flaherty and Hendricks tonight. Me too. I'm all about Flatty and Henders. Are you on Flaherty? I am on Flaherty. I'm heavy on Flaherty first five. Yeah, I'm first five and full on that tonight Todd. Anything on Thursday Night Football? Uh, not really. I think you guys have have you know said it all. I like Gardner Minshoot as well. You know. That's why

I took back from the last week. I think he's gonna be pretty good. But yeah, I think this is just a an in game type of opportunity. I'll be watching the college football as well as Flaherty the college football as well, Houston and tu Lane. Are you ad Eric King? Guy Todd? Do you like Derrek King? I

do like Derek King. I think he's pretty good. Alright to Lane, favorite by five in that game tonight in college football as well, and the Cardinals a slight minus I don't know, let's call it minus one thirteen favorite full game against the Cubs, first of seven between those two teams, and l Central Race wild card implications for the Cubbies as well, very tight in the National League. All right, Brady, best bets? What is your number one

best bet of the week, sir? Let's go to lambeau Field guilt for the Denver Broncos visiting the green Bay Packers, And first off, I like a desperate oh and two team facing a two and o team. I made this line seven and a half, and early in the week you were still able to catch eight and a half with Denver still plenty of seven and a half's out there, and I don't think that's bad on a neutral field.

I give Green Baby edge by three and a half points. Now, in my opinion, the Packers have one of the strongest home field advantages in football, and I think that can range anywhere from three to five points, probably a greater edge later in the year when the weather is more of a factor. So now still in September, let's say that home field is probably worth three or three and a half, meaning this line should be right around seven

by my calculations. So I felt eight or eight and a half was a pretty good bargain, you know, better than a touchdown there. And secondly, I like the fact that Green Bay has played two straight division rivals in the Bears and the Vikings, and now they face an out a conference opponent um with a Thursday night game on tap next week and Week four against the Eagles, So I believe the scheduling spot is advantageous for Denver.

Also in that Vikings game last week for the Packers again against Minnesota, very good defense, Green Bay was shut out in the second half and in second halves this season two games the Packers have only scored three points Denver. Now they bring a good defense to town two. And conversely, Denver has really kind of found its stride in the second half, scoring sixteen points against the Raiders in Week one and eleven points in the fourth quarter against Chicago.

And you know, like Tod mentioned, that really should have been a w but it ended up being a loss. And I think that's probably good for us to here this week. We're probably getting an extra point two our uh, an extra point or two of value this week in the line because that did end up in the lost column for Denver. And finally, the Denver Broncos, you know, Bradley Chubb von Miller, this defense is yet to record

a sack this season. So I have to believe Vic Fangio is well aware of this and is putting an emphasis on getting pressure on Rogers this Sunday. And Aaron Rodgers, he happens to be one of the leaders in the league as far as being sacked. He's been dropped seven times already this season, and this will be the third straight defensive power that he faces Chicago, Minnesota and now Denver. Broncos are currently ranked as the fourth best defense and

football against the pass. And if I think they can maintain that, you know, that ability to defend the pass and also get a few sacks on Rogers, I think they can definitely stay within this number and possibly win the game. Out Right. I'm gonna even give you the seven and a half on this, Brady, because it looks consensus seven and a half. Uh, so you get the extra hook on this. I don't hate it. I will

say this. Broncos left tackle Garrett Bowls, the team's top draft pick, in whistled for holding a career worst four times against the Bears. That gives him an NFL high thirty four flags in thirty four career starts. That is not good the rest of the NFL. That's right. There were two hundred I counted two hundred and fifty six penalties that were accepted this past week in the NFL. God,

it's just so unwatchable. By the way, I'm gonna set up a camera in your house Brady while you're watching this game, because I want to get your face when you first see the Joe Flacco face on Sunday and you realize and you realize, God help you that you've been on the broncos of this. I don't hate the pick though, Mike Palm Mike. By the way, speaking of Denver, did you happen to catch me and Todd Wishnev talking about the two point conversion rules yesterday on the Numbers Game?

Did you catch that? I? I I caught it, and Todd was not accepting of the rule. That's right, that's Todd. Todd was not very appreciative of the actual National Football League rule. I still don't. I still don't accept the rule. To clarify for those who missed it, and you could go to Visa dot com and watch the replay on

Wednesday's The Numbers Game. But essentially was curious if the referees had actually spotted the ball correctly for what ended up being Denver's go ahead two point conversion at the time with less than forty seconds left in the game.

And I went through a whole thing about how the refs actually got it right when they re spotted the ball for the Broncos at the one yard line after Brandon McManus missed the extra point attempt, but the Broncos were flagged for encroachment, and it was a whole lengthy thing, but um essentially, what it gets down to is in a two point try, it's not officiated like a normal

football play. And so whatever happened on the previous play, the fact that the Broncos committed a delay of game penalty and then ended up choosing to kick what ended up being a thirty eight yard extra point on the encroachment, even when Brandon McManus missed it, they don't just get the ball back at the three and a half yard line from what would have been the two point conversion

line of seven of the seven yard line. They get to respot it where it was before the first sequence, so they actually were corrected spotting the ball for the

Broncos at the one yard line. They get the two point conversion, and as we know, thanks largely to a Bradley Chub roughing the passer penalty that was very controversial to say the least, three plays later or four plays later, uh Mitchell Trobiski was able to convert a fourth and fifteen, they stopped the clock with one second left, and Eddie Pinniro did his thing in the Bears one by two. Anyway, Mike,

your best bet of the week. Kil it would have been interesting to see what Fannie Pack Fangio would have done from the three and a half, though it really really would have been right because he would have been forced to make a decision. Yeah, by the way, Fannie Pack Fangio, which I was saying on a numbers game, he's like the guy at a museum with a Fannie Pack that walks around a museum from painting and painting

with his hands classed behind his back. I hear Bill Simmons is calling Fannie Pack VIC two, which I guess is easy because he doesn't wear his stuff like a Fannie Pack during the game. So we've all come to the Fannie Pack. Okay, I'm gonna give my uh first best bet. I'm gonna lay six with the Eagles against the Lions. I think there's a big coaching mismatch, in a big quarterback mismatch in this game, and if you can lay less than a touchdown, there's value here the Lions.

Let's face it, we're out played for three and a half quarters against San Diego, and as Todd says, the Chargers did charge your things for the during the whole second half in order to not put that game away, in order to give up the lead, and in order to not convert on the final drive, missing field goals, not running on third and two to give the Lions that game. Their first week performance was absolutely pathetic and letting a rookie quarterback score on four consecutive drives. I'm

not impressed with this Lions team. They come in undefeated at one oh and one, but I still think they're by far the worst team in the NFC Central. I don't think that the Lions defense can hold the Eagles under twenty seven in this game, and I don't see the Lions getting above seventeen. I'm willing to lay just under a touchdown. Here is my number one play. I will not waste anybody's time. Normally I will go to Todd next. That is my number one best bet as well,

Mr Palm, They you very much everything you said. Lions favored by six. This is even down a bit from where it opened. I don't get that at all. I'm all about the Eagles here, I've got the Eagles on the Super Bowl. You're right, the Lions are one oh and one. But for all the reasons you stated snatching a tie from the jaws of victory week one and having no business winning that game last week, Chargers doing Chargers things. To quote Todd, I am on the Eagles

as well as my number one best bet Todd. Sorry to jump the line, but just had to echo that I want to go with the Indianapolis Colts minus one. I see minus one, one and a half. What do you see consents that their minus one on the Colts. It is minus one, Yes, okay, so I'll take Indie minus one. All I have to do is win the game here at home against the team that I feel is like Florida State and was like the Browns, one

of those talented teams that does dumb things. The Atlanta Falcons had the game one against the Eagles last week and almost gave it away when Matt Ryan threw the tip and absolutely unthinkable interception in the end zone to keep the Eagles in the game. Had Nelson Aguilar not dropped the touchdown on the last possession by the Eagles, they may have lost it out right. I am not impressed with Atlanta ever since their Super Bowl run. I don't like what's happening coaching there. And Frank Wreich to

me as an excellent coach. I mentioned on a Numbers game how I loved fourth and inches from his own thirty five with about two twenty to go on the other team with two time outs, he decided to go for it up nineteen seventeen. I thought that was a Belichick type move. I try to go for the kill right there. I think it's a coaching mismatch as well. All I have to do is win the game here and I'm at home in the Dome. Uh in the

minus one. Yeah, And the Colts last week seven of fourteen on third downs, which, if you recall, was a staple with the Eagles when Frank Reich was there along with Doug Peterson, and it was a staple with Andrew Luck and the Colts last year under Frank I himself so again setting themselves up for good third down yardage and converting at a high clip. That is always high leverage situations, the sort of runners in scoring position of football. So you have that going for you and uh, Jacoby

Brissette coming off a win over the Titans. Andrew Luck had retired with a perfect eleven and OH record straight up against the Titans. Jacoby Brisette picking up last week where he left off Indianapolis one point favorites over the Falcons. This week, Todd on the Colts. So the best bets Number one Brady on Denver catching the points at Green Bay. Mike and I both on Philly giving the points against Detroit. Todd taking the Colts against the Falcons giving just a point.

Number two best bet Brady going with another OH and two team versus a two and O team. I think that's a pretty good situation, and if you check the history on that, I think the O and two team is pretty good against the spread in a desperate situation like that. And this one, the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the San Francisco forty nine Ers San France. Cisco, of course gets the win over Tampa Bay, greatly aided by the Jamis Winston picks six is the hammer Cincinnati for seventeen uh.

Pittsburgh gets hammered by New England and then keeps it close and lost to Seattle, even without Big Ben for most of the game with Roethlisberger. I made this game one and a half in favor of the forty Niners. And I heard Kenny White on Follow the Money on Visa and yesterday with you Mike uh say that his adjustment for Mason Rudolph is about three and a half

or four points, and I would agree with that. So by my numbers, uh, that makes San Francisco about a five and a half point favorite here with Rudolph, I was able to get seven, you can still get six and a half. And I think this is the typical fallen hero theory. Right star quarterback goes down, team rallies around the new guy. And and I don't think the new guy is very bad at all. You know, I've watched this guy a little bit in relief of Roethlisberger,

and I think he looks like a pretty good Arab parent. Uh. He's gonna have to deal with the forty Niners pass rush, which is very good, but otherwise San Francisco is a pretty average defense versus the past, and the Steelers in two games have only given up two sacks. So I think if Rudolph, uh, you know, is able to maintain that protection, uh, he should be able to have some success.

The other thing, you know, I think from kind of an emotional angle, this is San Francisco's home opener, and the fans are gonna be all raw raw, you know, look at us. We're two and oh a little, a little bit fat and sassy to quote one of your former megapod colleagues, skill And on the other side, you've

got that desperate O and two team. Like I mentioned, the Steelers get this their ten and seven in games without Big Ben there twenty six, fourteen and one against the spread and games when they come in with a losing record, and the Niners are just one and seven against the spread coming off of back to back spread winds.

So I think it's a good situation for Pittsburgh. You know, typically we do see some line value when you have the star quarterback, the star player, what have you go down, and I think it's that very next game where you can kind of catch a riled up dog. Um. I think this forty Niner team is real solid, but I don't think this is the right spot for them this week. Are you since you bring up fat and sassy, are you sprinkling a little on the money line as well?

I did spreck sprinkle. I have a new policy this year. I play, you know, of my bet when I bet underdogs. I played of my bet on the UH with the points, and then I put ten percent on the money line. Well done, all right. The Niners, by the way, did that thing between their game against Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay and then at Cincinnati where they stayed out east. Stayed in Youngstown, Ohio, which is uh Eddie de Bartelow's old hometown. Uh. They are back on the West Coast

for the first time since the season began. By the way, Mike, paulm and I also have the Niners to win the NFC Wests pre flop before the season started. We both are simpatico on that. What is your number two bet, Mike, Gil did you bet them to make the playoffs as well? No, I just bet them to win the NFC West at plus three. Yeah, I got three seventy five, but I also got plus one to make the players. It's a good start with two road wins, Yes it is. I hope they win, but I hope they win by they

win by four. For you, Brady, Okay, we'll take that take. Was that offered at circle. By the way, Mike that on the playoffs, it was yes, No, we're also offered at circle. All right, Our our second bet won't be the same, Gil, I'm gonna go with a total here the Jets and Patriots under forty four. I think you're gonna have to have New England score forty five to get over this total. The Jets, I know they're missing the linebacker, but the Jets, the Jets defense is not awful.

Um and as evidenced you know on Monday night when the offense couldn't get a first down and backed up every drive, and and Cleveland was getting field position at at the at their thirty or better all night and holding them to twenty three points. I think Falk here, they're gonna treat him with baby gloves. This is probably the best defense in the league. In New England. They'll try to run the ball. Bell played very well. I

was very impressed with Bell on Monday Night. He played hard in that loss, even when the game was out of reach. I think you'll see heavy dose as a Bell in the short passing game that that suits at Washington State quarterback. And I think you'll see a heavy dose of the running game from the Patriots as well. I just think the New England's gotta get over forty

to put this game over, so we'll go under in Foxboro. Yeah, it's one of those when you do the whole total conflation thing with the spread and again to historic spreads, New England twenty two point favorite consensus over the Jets right now as we do this show, and of course Dallas twenty let's call that twenty two as well right now favorites over Miami. Those right now would be the sixth highest spreads in modern football history. I'm talking taking it all the way back to the seventies when they

took record of these things. So there's only five games with larger spreads than that. By the way, the first time that two of these is existed in the same week since the strike game in seven when the Niners and Cowboys were both spreads of this size. But to your point, New England, if you do the conflation with the total, they would have to win this game about thirty three to eleven, right to be right on the number and the total itself, and you don't see the

Jets scoring at all. Is basically the handicap there. Todd your number two picks, sir. Yeah, I was gonna say, Mike, do you like under ten and a half team total jets. I'm gonna assume you're gonna say, yeah, I love that, Todd, I love it. That's what I That's what I thought you were gonna say too. I like that too. Um Okay, my second pick is going to be the under in the Chicago Bears Washington Redskins game. I've seen enough of Mr Trobinsky to realize that he is abhorrent, abhorrent on

the football, abhorrent. Yes, I just don't know how to describe him. I know that Naggie's gonna just keep bubble wrapping him all season, trying to make sure he doesn't blow the game for them. I still think the Bears defense is fantastic. They played amazing against Denver, as I

thought they was that week. Uh that in that travesty of justice game in in Denver until maybe the fourth quarter, But even in the fourth quarter, they had a fourth and ten and a fourth and three that Denver had to get in order to you know, get the game to almost tied or whatever happened at the end there. So I'm thinking the Bears can hold Washington to fourteen to seventeen points. I don't think our boy Trabinsky can get us more than seventeen to twenty even against a

Redskins defense and doesn't look real good. So maybe like seventeen game or something like that, and you know, hopefully we end up going under the what do you have as the prevailing number there? Forty one, forty one and a half one on the U, forty one on the button. So I'm gonna go under forty one in Washington and the Bears. Yeah, Redskins were without Darius Guice last week, without Jordan Read, without Jonathan Allen, without Quentin Dunbar, so

they're already a mash unit Chicago Washington another primetime barn burner. Uh. And by the way, as someone who uh you know, had season tickets at RFK Stadium growing up and who had the displeasure of attending games at FedEx Field, let me tell you that that place will be like a morgue on Monday night, So there will be no home field advantage, there will be no crowd that will spur the Redskins onto offensive greatness. Under for wishing number two, my number two pick is uh. Hey, look, I don't

I don't mean to be boring. I'm taking the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs against the Baltimore Ravens, and I am laying the number. The Ravens first two games of the year, they crushed the Miami Dolphins. It's a throwout for me because I think the Dolphins could be historically bad. Last week, the Ravens had all kinds of trouble with Kyler Murray and the Zona Cardinals. That was a field goal game

late Ravens ended up winning by six. Yes, Lamar Jackson did make key throws in that game, but there's nothing about the Chiefs, nothing that leads me to believe that they can't cover a sub touchdown spread against the Ravens team this game at Arrowhead, give me the Chiefs. I'm

laying the six. Last week, the Chiefs did not score in the first quarter, did not score in the second half, but a Doug Williams like second quarter against the Raiders, even without Tyreek Hill, they don't appear to have missed a beat, even without Kareem Hunt. Until I see the Chiefs stopped, I'm just gonna pound them into oblivion. Chiefs giving the six at home against the Ravens. That's my

second pick, final one, Brady. My third game is the Chargers hosting the Texans, and I'm gonna go with the favorite here, Chargers minus three. Uh. It seems like we often see the Chargers have that away game, you know, early in the season when they're favored, uh in laying a you know, they come in with a lot of high hopes and and then they do something like they did last week at Detroit. And keep in mind too, if Rivers throws a touchdown instead of an interception on

that last play, they win the game. So, you know, despite an otherwise pretty sloppy performance. Um. So, you know, like the Denver game with them actually ended up ending up in the lost column. The Chargers to probably some line value here too because they took a loss rather than getting an impressive win on the road. Uh. And

I don't think Houston is very good. Uh. Deshaun Watson, you know, maybe one of the greatest guys uh personally in the NFL and and real joy to watch, but he's already been sacked this season ten times, and now he's going to face a Chargers defense, uh, past defense that's eighth in the league, and Houston ranks in the bottom ten in the league on defense both against the run and the pass, and the Chargers conversely are the fourth best total offense in the league. So I think

it's a midst mismatch of sorts. There. Get this too, you guys, remember how the Chargers were always a thorn in the side of Peyton Manning and the Colts. They have really been a thorn in the side of the entire a f C South Division Jaguars Titans. They're sixteen and three straight up and seventeen and two against the spread versus the a f C South. They're also six and oh against the number against the Texans. I think they rebound here back home off the loss to Detroit.

I think they win this one by anywhere from seven to ten points. You are a brave, brave man, Brady Cannon, betting this game here betting the Chargers. To me, by the way, at the end of the show, when we do the final two questions and what's the game I want no part of on the side, this might be my answer on this game. To your point about Deshaun Watson, Let's start there eighth straight game last week in which

he's been sacked at least four times. Think about that, half a season, half a regular season, eight straight games the equivalent of in which he's been sacked at least four times. That ties him, by the way for the NFL record with Blake Bortle and Jeff George back in Yeah, for the longestreak of games with the least four sacks since it became an official state. Two. Laramie Tunzil does not appear to be helping Deshaun Watson was a little

banged up himself. He was Deshaun Watson was sacked, for those who don't remember, an NFL high sixty two times last season. But on the Charger side, you know, like all these teams, nine penalties for seventy yards last week, two horrible turnovers, Ekeler at the one yard line. He's got a bit of a fumble problem, I think, as great as he has been. Uh, Philip Rivers another just ridiculously key interception the Chargers. And this is the most charger set of them all. Six red zone turnovers since

the start of last year. Six That will just kill you time and time again. But you're on the Chargers minus three. That's the pick. They always have one of those games where they get it worked out, and I think this could be it right here this week. Okay, Um, so your three picks, then once again, rattle throw mare. I've got Denver plus eight is where I got it. Um, you can still get seven and a half. Um. I took the Steelers plus seven. You can still get six

and a half. And I've got the Chargers minus three minus some juice minus one twenty Joe Flacco, Mike Tomlin without Big Ben and Anthony Lynn and the l A Chargers. You are you are a brave man. The poo poo platter from Cannon. Let's go to Let's go to Mike Palm pick number three from you, Mike, I'm gonna go to the same game Brady had his his first pick up at Lambeau. But I'm gonna play this game under

the forty three. I agree with him about the Denver defense and Fangio and and the need to generate a pass rush here, and also Matt Lafleur's new offense with Green Bay. Let's think about this. They've really only scored points in two quarters through of the eight quarters they've played. The Vikings have slutely shut them down for the last three quarters of that game. I think this game will be played with long, methodical drives for field goals. And

I actually think this number came back awful high. I would put it somewhere around forty one. Um. I just don't think that on a grass field you're gonna get a scoring fest up there at Lambo. So third play is Packers Broncos undt Okay, So you got Philly against the number, and you're under in the New England game, and you're under in the Green Bay Denver game. Those

are Those are Mike's three picks. By the way, the Fangio comment this is more to Todd's last pick if Denver excuse me, if if Chicago doesn't hit that field goal, If Eddie Panneiro misses that field goal and the Bears lose, the Bears would have been oh in two having given up twenty four total points. That would have sucked a big time. Todd, what's your final pick? My final pick is a under in the Chargers Houston game. I see forty eight and a half or forty nine. What would

you put that one down? As gilt and a half? Pretty much across the board. Okay, so let's go under forty eight and a half in the Houston Texans charter the game. The reasoning being Bill O'Brien loves to run the football. The Chargers are actually a team that doesn't really score that fast. They usually go on these long seven minute drives. They run it with elo, they throw

to the tight end. Um. I think that Houston as well is kind of you know, even the game against the Saints, which was a high scoring game, was only forty seven points. Had there not been those ridiculousness of the last thirty seven seconds, it would have been instead of UM. And that was of course in the Dome against New Orleans. I think these teams want to run the ball, and I think forty eight and a half is a very high number in the NFL, especially in

a Bill O'Brien game. Bill O'Brien is the kind of guy will always give himself an excuse to run the ball. First intent between the tackles. Second intent, Oh, we gotta get Built back behind the stick, for he's he's inevitable with his uh, you know, two yard runs on second and ten. I think the the I just feel that

this game is an under type of game. Houston played a very under ish game last week, and the Chargers played that game against the Colts that could have ended or definitely under the number had they not made Charger ass mistakes. So I'm gonna go under forty eight and a half in the Houston l a Charger game from my third pick. And what are your three in total?

Indie minus one, under forty one in Washington against the Bears, and under forty eight and a half in Houston against the chart and it is forty eight and a half consensus my three once again, My first two anyway were Philadelphia minus six versus Detroit, Kansas City minus six versus Baltimore, and my third Cincinnati catching six at Buffalo. Look, I love all the Buffalo love there. Two and oh they've beaten the Jets and the Giants, same away stadium, just

a stone's throwaway from Buffalo. Good for them. I'm very happy for them. It's their first two and oh start in five years, just the third and eleven years with those wins over the Jets and the Giants. By the way they did against the Giants on the strength of three straight touchdown drives of seventy five seventy and ninety eight yards, but the Bills penalty plague nine for sixty five yards. And while the Bengals did get murdered by the forty Niners, ultimately last week, I had the Bengals

at Seattle Week one catching all those points. They were catching nine points. They ended up losing by one. There is nothing here that tells me the Bills should be giving six on guessing lines. I guess this as four. Well, it doesn't go through a key number. That six is pretty important to me. I will happily take the six points. Andy Dalton forty two for three eleven in that game against the Niners last week, two touchdowns, one pick. He

was sacked four times. The Bengals are gonna have to clean that up, but Tyler Boyd keeps getting it done. Ten catches a twenty two yards. I don't think the Bills stopped that connection. They did only have twenty five yards rushing for the Bengals, but that had a ot to do with them falling behind as well. Give me the points. I'll take the Bengals. That's pick number three. So it's Eagles, Chiefs and Bengals for me. My top three picks another oh and two against the two and

oh to gil. That's right, another oh and two against the two and oh on the road the Brady Cannon Special, as we like to call it. As always, guys, support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a musk because their first post odds take the highest limits and pride themselves on never having kicked out a

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sir yes, um. We have two entries from the same person that are nine oh and one nine and a half points, and then a handful at nine and one. It's it's pretty significant to drop off and then uh and then around close to fifty that are at eight and two. So very interesting after this week to see how many people are are within maybe two games of the lead, positioning themselves for that first September payout of a hundred forty three thousand seven. Hut, God, that is

the best. I mean, look, the best part of the circum million is that's a million dollars to the winner. But other than that the quarterly prize of a hundred forty three thousand todd You're not going to win the quarterly prize, but you're six and four through two weeks, which puts you in what three d and fifty seventh place I believe it is, which is a really good start. As long as you're six, you can talk about it freely because you're doing well. You gotta be happy with

your start. I would have been happier had that Vick fans, you know, not not happened in my Bears two and a half. Well, there's always that, there's always that twenty three people, twenty three entries that didn't submit picks week one, and I believe eleven in week two. I would be curious. I guess there's no way of knowing this because the people who don't submit entries immediately get the O and five.

But I wonder if there was anybody who did submit two weeks who just simply went oh and five or oh four and one both weeks, that would not be a good start. Gentlemen, Teaser of the week six point two teamers or if you want to go more than two teams, you're welcome to do that. To Mike was Brady, we'll start with you. Well, this is a little bit outdated. I I'm guessing, or I was guessing that Cam Newton was going to play in the line would close you know right where we see it, uh two and a

half or three in favor of Carolina. But it looks like there's been some sort of announcement because now I'm seeing Arizona favored by two and a half points, so that kind of throws my theory out here. I was wanting to take Arizona as a home dog and tease it up to eight and a half or nine. Um, I made the game pick them. Uh so if I could get three or three and a half, I might like Arizona anyway. But you know, I was thinking that this line was to hold Newton was going to be

cleared to play. I would like the teaser better. I just don't think that that is live anymore. Unfortunately, it looks like that's changed here in the last twenty minutes or so, so I'll have to find another leg to this teaser. But I like the Vikings on the other end, teasing them down to either two and a half or three. Still a couple of lingering eight and a half's out there on the Vikings, so you could tease it down under a field goal. I think this team is pretty

darn good. Should have beaten Green Bay at least covered the number. And I think the Raiders are about what we thought. They were, not awful but probably below average, So Minnesota they should win this game. And I think being being a winner by a field goal is not asking too much I made the number eight and a half, so I'm right there where this spread is. I think

altering this by six points is a big advantage. So Minnesota and Minnesota to whom on the teaser, Well, I was wanting to tease Arizona up from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half. But like I say, it looks like the favorite is flipped. There. There must be some news on Cam Newton not playing

in this game. Let me ask you this, would you consider teasing Minnesota with Carolina through through the three and the seven, because do you really think there's a drop off here from Cam Newton, the Cam Newton we've gotten the first two weeks of the season to Kyle Allen. Because my whole thing is Cam Newton could not have been worse the last time we saw him, and I don't know that the Carolina Panthers are any worse without him, So for me, I almost consider that. Yeah, no, I

hear you, and I thought about that too. I mean, I love teasing uh up off of a two and a half, you know, and catching eight and a half, But I also love Arizona as a home dog, whether it's just with the points or a tease or what have you. So no that I'd have to pass on this at this point unless we change again. All right, we have a pass on the teaser. Then from Brady, Canada with the lakes got in half of it, but show here it flipped on me. That's all right, open teaser. Yeah.

To Brady's point, Arizona now coming up as two and a half point favorites before the Cam Newton News, Carolina was the road two and a half point favorite. Mike Palm to team teaser. What you got doesn't have to be two teams, by the way, I'm gonna give you a two teams, Gil through the seven and the three to two and a half, and I'm gonna use one of your best bets and tease the Chiefs down to a pick. Okay, but here's the thing. It's the teaserproof nine.

So it really gets you too. Three You still want it? Yeah, I'll take it. Okay. There's a couple eight and a halfs out there. Okay, I'm looking off shore. I don't see any but Minnesota. To whom again, Mike, I missed it to uh your Chiefs down to Okay, I like it. I like both of them. Todd. I'm gonna I'm gonna tease green Bay down to a half from seven and a half. You know, I understand that Denver is oh

and two in green Bay is two and oh. But Denver did end up covering that game in green Bay, you know, didn't look as great against Minnesota in the final three quarters. So uh, you know, I think they may come to play here against Denver. I just don't believe, you know, I watched that whole Denver Oakland Raiders game. Forget this Bears game, but the Denver Oakland Raiders game. I mean, Denver looked just absolutely horrendous against Oakland. It's not very good. So I just think green Bay can

somehow come out with a win here. So I'm gonna take um green Bay down to a half and tease it with the San Francisco forty Niners down to a half. As we would it be one and a half, green Bay would be one and a half. Right, from seven and a half down to one and a half in San Francisco down to point five, from six and a half down to point five. I don't think the Steelers are good anymore. I didn't think they were going to be that great this year coming in even with Big Ben.

I think Antonio Brown is a gigantic uh loss because I don't think Juju smith Schuster is the number one. Last week's game against Seattle is really misleading because two of the touchdowns were gifts. They got two fumbles. They gave really really short fields, one for Mason Rudolph and one for Big Ben. Uh. In order to get it even just six or the game could have easily been twenty to twelve. And Jimmy g looks great to me. I love Shanahan over Tomlin. All I have to do

is win the game. Give me San Francisco with Green Bay, just to win those games one and a half and minus a half. Boys, I'm taking five teaser leg so you're ready for this three point five to one pay out five team. These are the five legs I love. I'm gonna give you the five, and then I'm gonna pick a two within that, but I'm also gonna bet the five. I like Jacksonville on the teaser tonight, cheese it through the three through the seven. Uh, that'll get

you to eight. Jacksonville catching eight tonight on Sunday. I like four other teaser legs, some of which have been mentioned here. I like Kansas City obviously on the teaser. I like them A T. S. I like him on the teaser that would just basically put it at a pick them. I love the Eagles, that would take it down to a pick them as well. Against the Lions, I have m A T. S as well. Uh. San Francisco. To your point, Todd, I like teasing that down to minus half a point. They would be a teaser leg.

I like and Minnesota, which Mike Paul mentioned. It is a little teaser proof because you don't get it through the three. But I do like Minnesota minus three against Oakland. I like all five of those Jacksonville, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Minnesota. I'm doing all five three point five to one pay out. If I had to pick two, though, I would take my two A T. S picks, I would just take Philadelphia in Kansas City and do it that way. But I'm going crazy and I'm playing all

five on those final two questions. Gentlemen, final two questions. And by the way, we are gonna learn a lot about Mike Tomlin and to some extent, Sean Payton as well. Uh. With their quarterback injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and uh Drew Brees, respectively, it will be very interesting to see final two questions, gentlemen, The first of which is, of all the big favorites on the board, which in your opinion is the most likely to lose outright? And we will define these as

six point favorites are greater for this week's purposes. The candidates are Green Bay giving seven and a half to the Denver Broncos, Kansas City six to Baltimore, Buffalo giving six at home to Cincinnati, New England giving twenty two at home to the Jets, the Vikings giving nine at home to the Raiders, the Cowboys giving let's call it twenty one and a half now at home against the Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers giving six and a half to the Daniel Jones at New York Giants, and finally

the Niners giving six at home to Pittsburgh. As we mentioned, which of those, in your opinion, Brady is the most likely to lose out right? Well, you know, I like the Steelers and the Broncos plus the points, and you also know in the NFL, um you know, if you can just pick the winner. Often the spread doesn't matter, so uh, you know, those two would be on my radar. But I actually think that Giants have a chance to

beat Tampa Bay out right. I made this game three and a half and we're getting nearly a touchdown here. I kind of think the team, the Giants is probably happy with the move to Daniel Jones. I think they probably feel that this is a bit of an inspiration. They knew they weren't making any progress with ELI and this gives them some hope, maybe kind of a fresh start. And who is Tampa Bay. They got rolled by the Niners and they beat to, uh, what appears to be

a below average Panthers team. And if you remember last season, the Giants lost to Jacksonville and the opener, and then they lost to Dallas and then at oh and two, they went on the road and they beat the Texans in Houston. And it seems like a very similar pattern here where they go on the road at owen two and beat Tampa Bay. Uh. They also have a winnable game at home next week. I apologize Gil against the Redskins, so they have to realize that they could be back

to two and two here. Real quick and have their season back. Tampa Bay. Never a bad choice, is the answer to that question, Tampa Bay giving six and a half. I think you're right, Daniel Jones. I think the Giants are far better off. They should have done it from the beginning. I don't understand why they played Eli at all. Mike, same question, Big Favorite, most likely lose that right, same answer,

Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay. I debate between them and and Frisco San Francisco, but boy, that Steelers defense was so bad in the second half against Seattle. I think you know, they had every right to win the game with Rudolph if they'd have ever made Seattle punt the ball. But they could. I'll go. I'll go with the fact that there's a shot you get two or three turnovers on a Winston and Daniel Jones takes care of the ball. So I'll say Tampa Bay. I agree with all of that.

As much as I wanted to say San Francisco. I kept coming back to the Pittsburgh defense. And for those of us who had Pittsburgh last week, we did not lose that bet because Big Ben went out. Let's be honest, we did not. It was because exactly what Mike just said. They could not get the Seattle offense off the field. I'll give mine in a minute, Todd, You're answer to that question, big favorite, most like to lose that, right, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say

that the Kansas City Chiefs. I know everyone's in love with the Kansas City Chiefs. I saw a little Golden State warrior itis last week against the Raiders, especially the second half. Uh me, it looked like Mahomes was a little disinterested because they knew they could win so easily. I don't like that out of my quarterback. I think. You know, if you remember Golden State last year during the season pretty much didn't even try at all. And um, there was a little of that in the second half

against the Raiders. I just did like what I what I saw there. Uh And then Baltimore. Here's why I mean. John Harbaugh is a very good coach in my opinion, and you know, of course Andy Reid is as well. But uh, you know, I could see John Harbaugh coming in here and getting a couple of turnovers and and the almighty great Kansas City Chiefs, you know, having a little mistake against Baltimore. I like to take teams that are I consider good teams in this kind of you know,

big dog spot, so I'll love with Baltimore. I feel you on the choice. I understand the reasoning for it. I am on the Chiefs, but I understand the reasoning. For me, it's either Tampa Bay or Buffalo. I noticed that none of you gravitated towards Buffalo. Feels uh feels like y'all are very bullish on the Bills. I am

on Cincinnati against the spread. But the answer to this question for me is still Tampa Bay, which might be interesting to folks because Tampa Bay with Jameis Winston, I have no trust, no trust in him not throwing a key interception. So for me, I will say the Buccaneer as well. And I do expect big things from Daniel Jones. I don't think he's nearly as bad as people made him out to be. Yes, perhaps they drafted him too early, but he I think will be a tremendous improvement over

Eli Manning. So my answer would be Tampa Bay. The last question is the Bizarro question. If we lived in a Bizarro world, we had to bet a side on every single one of these sixteen NFL games this week, no buys, but we got one free pass, Brady. One game you did not have to play on the spread, what would it be? You know? For me, I don't want any part of Baltimore Kansas City, and I think I know you're on Kansas City Guild, but I think it's a sexy pick for a lot of people right

now to take the Ravens and the points. But you know, Jacksonville was a play by a lot of wise guys in the off season heading into Week one against the Chiefs, and then we saw the Raiders get a ton of attention last week, plus the points there at home, and it seems like if you play on the Chiefs as a favorite, it's being dubbed like a square play. But I'll tell you I don't know how square it is at all. I actually liked them in Week one, but

I did not play. It didn't do anything with the Raider game either, But I do not want to mess with this team right now. Great game late in the season last year with the Ravens, and I know they have revenge here, but I'm just gonna hope that this game is is as good as it was last year and sit back and watch and not bet because I could, you know, like you kind of said, Gil, the Chiefs laying less than the touchdown. I think they can beat almost anybody in the league by double digits. But I

do give Baltimore a very good fighting chance here. And to Todd's point about Harbaugh, absolutely so. Um, I can't find a real edge either way, and I'm just gonna watch what ought to be a good one Baltimore Kansas City Brady's game that he wants. Absolutely, Brady would rather take a side what you're saying. You'd rather take a side in the Jets New England or Cowboys Miami game either way, and those are cop out skill that's not

good for the show. Well no, no, I mean would I mean I think that it's still applies right, even if the spread was seventy right, it would it still applies to this question? Yeah, no, I I don't want any part of those either, But I understand. I thought this one was kind of a more real answer that I think how many people are really going to be betting those games anyway? True that to some bookmakers on decent that they'll probably not get a lot of handle

on those games. Um, this is a marquee game that I don't want to get involved with. Yeah, there's some guy that has a parlay with Alabama, I believe in Alabama and somebody else Georgia, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia. And then I think he had the Cowboys or something, Cowboys and the Patriots all against the number for a four team parlay against the number for ten thousand dollars. How about that Mike game? You want no part of it? In Glendale,

Arizona the Cameless Panthers against the Cardinals. I really have no feel for this game. I've thought about. Your point isn't really a downgrade. I'm I did not see a lot of that ere Zona Baltimore game. I don't. I still I guess Arizona's performed better than I thought they would to come out with a year. But this game, hovering one way or the other within two points, I want no part of it. I am going to guess that that is the least selected game in Circle this

this week. That is my hunch. You're probably right, Yeah, I believe that to be the case. Todd, What do you want no part of I don't want any part of the Saint Seattle game, because I don't know Bridgewater really is as bad as he looked in the game against the Rams, or was it just that he was thrown in there with no preparation. Which which Bridgewater are we gonna get this week? Who knows? Um? You know, Seattle, you know they won that game against the Bengals, they

won the game against the Steelers. You know, I don't know, But mostly I don't know what I'm going to get from Bridgewater. I may end up picking Seattle in circle for the contest, but I totally will agree that that will that will be what will go rattling through my brain. Who am I against the Bridgewater from you know, the scouting reports that we went from Minnesota that we all thought was so good or whatever that was last week? I completely agree with that. For me, it's Houston and

the Chargers. I know that's one of your picks, Brady on the Chargers. Houston is one of these teams. I think Tennessee's the other. It used to be the Dolphins for many years, but now I have a very good grasp, as we all do, on what the Dolphins are. But I think if you were to tell me what are the what are the NFL teams through two weeks that you have so least grasp on. For me, it's Tennessee. I still don't really get their identity, and I just have no idea what I'm getting from the Texans from

week to week. I just I really don't. We've seen it through two weeks also, uh. And then the Chargers, as much as I want to love them, they just are the most like no team snatches defeat from the jaws of victory as much as that team does. And we talked about it earlier. So for me, it's Houston and the Chargers. One of five afternoon games UH this week, eight early, five late. So that's better than the ten three ratio we've got last week. Thank goodness, gentlemen, appreciate it.

Mike Palm from Circa, Todd Wishnev from being the Jewish Mamba, and then Brady Cannon, Ladies and gentlemen from Visa hosting the Green Zone tonight, little in game perhaps during the NFL and baseball games from Brady and oh, by the way, he's won a super contest from the San Suci team back in twenty eleven. Thank you, Brady. Thank you all Mega Pod. Good luck to everybody with all your bets this weekend and then Ashton let Barley