Check it out. Man down Now Thursday morning, September twelve nine. Team them Beating the Book Podcast Megapod Week two in the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander and in case you missed it last week, the new crew on my right the conciliary to Derrek Stevens over at Circuits Sports. He's the vice president of operations there and knows all things about the circum Million contest, among other things. It's our friend Mike Palm. Thank you Mike for being here, sir.
It's an honor and a pleasure to join you, and especially Todd wishne Todd Wishnev, who is our other guest on the left here. He's the star, one of the stars of Showtime's docuseries Action. You may hear him on Visa as well as Mike. Just said, Todd Wishnev. Hello Todd, Hi guys. So let me just say this about last week. A couple of things. One, it was the highest rated Week one megapod of all times, so kudos to you. Two.
This will be the real test right week two. See if they continue to listen to you guys after week one. I'm sure they will. Uh. The other thing is Mike, you were accused of breathing heavily last week. You were not breathing heavily. It was just where apparently the mike was being held, correct, I think. So there's some background noise in the office with running water in the pipes and and that. So we moved to a different office.
So hopefully that corrects that and nobody thinks I'm a pervert. Alright, Well, thank god for that. And Todd is not in l A, so we can actually hear everything that Todd has to say as opposed to the first five minutes last week. All right, so let's do this. Let us begin. First of all, let's review how our picks went last week. Uh, not so much, although Todd, you were two in one in your best bets and you also hit your teaser,
did you not? All right? And Mike and I not as lucky, Uh not as not as good because and the reason I use the word lucky, we were one and two in our best bets and we both missed our teaser, and much of that was because the Eagles and the Lions completely destroyed us and the Lions collapse. I'm still not sure that actually happened, but but we did get the Thursday game right with the under. So that's the saving grace from week one. I knew you'd
throw that in there, Todd Judges. Does that count, Todd said part of the officials. No, that's just why I left. That will not count. Will not count before we get into this week, because we want to get our thoughts on Thursday night that we're getting into our best bets. We'll also do the teaser of the week, which I actually gave out on a numbers game this morning. I do want to get a circu million update the Circus Sports a million full season contest five picks against the spread?
How many total participants were there in the end, and how many of those went five and oh? Mike, So we ended up with one thousand, eight hundred and seventy five participants because everything over fift hundred went back into the quarterly winners or the best score each month. Each month, including this month of September, is worth one hundred forty three thousand, seven hundred and fifty dollars. Sixteen cards with
five even oh. Sixteen entries went five and oh. And here's the more shocking thing, twenty three entries did not submit their picks Jesus, including one of our friends, Anthony Curtis. Right, he admitted that he was one of them. He had three of the twenty three that didn't turn him in. He was busy on his book and he forgot about the deadline and he called his partner up, said what do you like in these games? And he said, well,
what did you submit? And he said, well, I'm just looking at him now, and the guy said, hey, it's three thirty. What are you talking about? And so they're they're combined. So yeah, and combined they start out with Owen fives across the board. Uh, and say what those quarterly prizes were again, the four week sprint in the five week at the end of the year. Yeah, one hundred forty three thousand, seven and fifty dollars. Wow, all right, didn't go so well for me because of the Lions
and the Eagles. So I'm not gonna win that first quarterly. I'm just gonna tell you that I'll take another. And in your favorite BELICHICKI and uh voice, it's on to October on It's right, that's right. Uh, we're just here to We're gonna be on October obviously. Antonio Brown news great texts that we don't necessarily have to repeat, but I'd love to at some point. Uh. We think he's playing for the Patriots this weekend as far as we know.
Me and Blanka laugh about this. The other big news was this morning Sam Donald Adam Gaze telling everybody, and we were talking about this on a Numbers Game Live that Adam Gaye telling everybody. Sam Donald's got mono mono nucleosis. I had that in college that destroys you, like you have no energy. Um, And so he's gone for this Monday night against the Browns. We saw that game, which was at two and a half being taken off the board. Then it came back in Vegas. Shout out to you
guys in the West Gate, Mike. It came out at six and a half at the West Gate, which I thought was too much of a swing. You guys came out at five and a half. Then offshore it came out four and a half once they put it back up, and then that quickly moved back to six. Where are you now, Yeah, we moved from we took some bets at five and a half and where it's six as well, and it's six pretty much everywhere on that game. Right now, Okay,
let's start with a Thursday night game thoughts, Todd. Since we haven't heard from you, you're awfully quiet, let us begin with any thoughts. Carolina Panthers seven point favorites tonight hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. By the way, you were just talking about the circum million. The circum million lines just came out and they have six and a half for the on the Circle contest for the Brown Jets. So just an interesting point. Now, as far as Tampa
Bay and Carolina, Uh here's the thing. Carolina to me, we talked about this yesterday on a Numbers game. Carolina to me gave away fourteen points in the early part of that game. In that Rams game, they could easily won that game. Uh So, I kind of liked them. The only problem is I don't like it all the way up here at seven points, it just seems too much for a division old game. Tampa Bay had a game they could have won as well. Jamis through to two pick sixes. I don't see him throwing two pick
six is the week after he just threw two. He's probably gonna be a lot more cautious you'll probably be a lower type scoring game, So I don't really want any part of this game. Mike, your thoughts on this one tonight? Seven is a tough number. Uh. I leaned Panthers here. I agree with Todd. I had my biggest play on Sunday was actually the total in that Rams that Rams first half against Carolina, so I watched it
very intently. I thought there was a bad call Gil on that turnover that was it was a bad at ball that made it look like a lateral. I don't know how they didn't look at that and reverse that, but that gave the Rams first and goal. Really changed the complexion of that game. I thought Carolina played right with them. Um. I was concerned with Jamis's performance again with Tampa Bay even bringing Bruce arians and he just can't seem to correct his turnover issues and bone headed plays.
I think the Panthers are the side here. But as Todd said, at seven, it's a tough play because now you have to win by two scores. If you were getting able to get it earlier at six or six and a half, probably a little bit of a lead. But it's a pass for me tonight. Yeah, I will tell you that it's a pass on the number. For me, I will be using Carolina in my teaser of the week, though, portent of things to come and to your points about
everything that you guys just said. Jameis Winston one touchdown, three picks, two of which were returned to the house last week in the Buccaneers loss to the Niners. Forty Niners had two interceptions all of last year picked off Jamis three times again two to the house. Jamis gonna Jamis, as they like to say. And then Carolina and they're loss to the Rams. And Todd was able to watch this game twice. On the shortcut. Christian McCaffrey fills up
a box score like nobody else. Nineteen carries dwenty eight yards, two touchdowns, ten receptions eighty one yards on top of that. But Cam Newton there is an interesting thing about him. I mean, the one sort of pause that it gives me the only reason I'm playing this Carol on the teas as opposed to against the spread. Cam Newton costly backward pass that resulted in fumbled deep in Carolina territory
led to a Rams touchdown. Also had a pick with five five left in the game that was, and he was held by the way to a career low minus two yards rushing career low, meaning he's probably not looking to run as much. That was always part of his his weaponry and rams linebacker Corey Littleton. I was mentioning this morning and yesterday on the Numbers game. Interesting quote. Cam is a readable guy. Littleton had fourteen tackles, a pick in a fumble recovery. He gave me an opportunity
and I read it perfectly. And it should be noted that Newton did not complete a pass of longer than seventeen yards in that game, but he said he didn't even think about his surgically repaired shoulder during the game. Simply took with the defense gave him. So it really comes down to do you believe Cam on that or not. But I will not take Carolina on the number. I will take Carolina in a tease. With the teaser coming up, all right, let us begin with the best bets of
the week. Can start with you, Mr Palm, Sir, what do you got? What's your number? One? I'm gonna go against your best bet last week and I'm gonna take San Francisco in the second straight road game, catching two at Cincinnati. I was very impressed with the retooled forty Niners defense last week against the said Buccaneers that we discussed from the Thursday night game. I thought they totally dominated that game. Yes, they did have two picks six is,
but think about this. You know, firstco had two turners of their own and they have three touchdowns called back by penalty in that game. I think Kittle is so effective and such a safety net for Garoppolo and they go on the road. Cincinnati was competitive in Seattle, but remember that Fluke touchdown before the half on that on that Hail Mary, and then they really did not move the ball much in the second half, where they were
much more successful in the first half. I think San Francisco was the better side here, and you're gonna catch a couple of points, so I'll make them my top play. Ye. It's an interesting line because it's sort of similar San Francisco's on the road against the non division opponent was right around to pick him last week. Movie one point either way. Here a consensus on this right now, as you just mentioned, let's just get a consensus number. Is San Francisco plus two? Uh? So you're on the Niners.
By the way, just to clarify what Mike said, I was on the Bengals as my number one best bet on the megapod last week. I did have the Niners in circa todd your best bet of the week, my best bet of the week. All depends on whether I'm gonna get two and a half or three in this Bears game. Are we counting the Bears this two and a half consensus right now? Two and a half? Yes, okay, then I would like the Chicago Bears. And I'm gonna say you're gonna have a hired at take. That's my
Chicago accident. You're gonna have a hired at take if you have the Denver Broncos this week. And here's why the Chicago Bears held Mr Aaron Rodgers. You may have heard of him all state commercials. He was only able to get ten points against them in a game where their offense did nothing for them. Which makes it even harder for defense in the NFL to stop somebody as
good as Aaron Rodgers. When your offense isn't even doing anything for you, and they held him to only ten points, I believe they can hold Denver to somewhere between minus two and minus five points during this game. If it was possible to get minus points in an NFL game, they'd be able to do it. Because Joe Flacco's gonna get head porn off. I don't want to hear about the altitude. I don't want to hear about the elevation in September. I don't want to hear about Denver nonsense.
It's not a good football team. Vic Fangio is going to be a disaster. Give me the Chicago Bears. The Bears, thank you, thank you for cleaning up altitude and correcting that. Television appreciate that. And Vic Fangio, can we just say I compared him on a numbers game at Visa, and I said, he's like every middle American or middle aged man in a museum walking around with the Fannie pack with his hands clenched behind his back, walking slowly from painting to painting. It just feels like he is it
over his head. Denver was down fifteen in the fourth quarter driving against the Raiders and decided to kick a field goal to go down twelve instead of obviously going for touchdown, because what's the point of getting down twelve. Yeah, that was fun. That was very fun. Uh. So all all Well said, I understand all that. By the way, about your game, Mike, does it give you pause. I'm just gonna try to play Devil's advocate on the Niners. I like the Niners too. I was on him last week.
Eleven penalties ninety seven yards. They were plagued by penalties in the preseason. They had a lot of penalties last year. They got to clean that up eventually, don't they. Seat It'll cost him at some point because it's just too slow. That game was almost unwatchable in Tampa Bay. But it seemed like there was a two out of every three place had a penalty. Uh to your point, uh, Gill, that you made about Fangio and the guy from the
Midwest with the Fannie pack, uh. Brent said, on my guys, uh, you know, because obviously he called the game in Oakland that it was quite a scene. You know, this is Fangio's first time being on the sideline and first time as a head coach. Just trying to get him hooked up with all the equipment. It took like six or seven minutes. They couldn't get the belt on him, and he said he felt very badly for him, terrible. I didn't know that. Wow, that's a great detail. Um My,
my best bet of the week. And I just kind of landed on this this morning. I don't know, I just sort of looked at it and I was like, why am I not playing? This is my best bet. I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Seattle Seahawks. I'm curious how you guys feel about this. Pittsburgh right now, there are four point favorites consensus. You might be able to find three and a half out there, but they are consensus four point favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle did exactly what I thought they would last week in that game against the Bengals. I just don't think they have enough offense to get away from teams, certainly not to cover a nine point spread what it was last week against the Bengals. And the Steelers couldn't have looked worse against the New England Patriots. They got absolutely beat down thirty three to three. Mike Tomlin had a Vic Fangio moment ten and seventeen left in the third quarter.
They were down twenty to nothing, Tomlin says, you know, fourth and one, here at the at the goal at the one yard line, let's kick a field goal. You know, why not. I'll make it twenty two three we won't get shut out, and then fourth place for scribbage later, Brady to the door, set fifty eight yards Katie bart the door. So you know, the Steelers had five full possessions in the first half, and they punted on four of them. I think they went three and out three
times as well. I just think they couldn't look worse. I don't think they're that bad of a football team. I think they get it together against the Seattle team that, even at home where they're supposed to be super awesome, had to eke it out against the Bengal squad that I don't think it's really gonna scare anybody as this season progresses. I think Pittsburgh shows that they are the team I thought they were before that game against New England.
I'll take the Steelers. I'll give the four points. I felt, and watching the opening of a Numbers game this morning, that that's where you were gonna land and you sort of talk to yourself into it right on the air. Yes, um, I'm high on the I was high on the Steelers before the season, and I and I just said, I think I'm throwing out Game one. I just have to
throw it out. It's very hard. That game is supposed to really be played Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion opening at home, and they didn't do it this year. They moved into Sunday night. That's a very tough atmosphere anytime you go in and play the defending Super Bowl champion and their home opener. They sort of got overwhelmed. And so I'm I'm striking that, and uh, I agree with your play guilt. You know, before the
Antonio Brown allegations came out, yesterday was it? Yesterday? Was the day before? I can't even remember anymore. So it happened,
so yeah, Tuesday. So on on Tuesday morning before they came out, I had Michael Lombardi and will be on the Megapod by the way, this year several times, but I had Michael Lombardi on the show Visa's own Michael Lombardi, and I asked, Hey, let's say we lived in a bizarro world where you couldn't sign Antonio Brown before the weekend and let's say the Steelers, you know, got Let's say the Patriots crushed the Steelers as they did thirty
three to three with their fleet of wide receivers. And then Tuesday morning I asked him, I go, no, owing that would they still if signing became open today? Would they still signed Antonio Brown? Given that they did so well and they had to make the calculus? Do we really want this this annoyance? And he said, oh, yeah, they've been targeting him the whole time, They'd still sign him.
And then twenty four hours later, after the sexual misconduct allegations came out, I sort of asked openly, now, what would Lombardi say? Would they really want this distracted after that? And I have to think at that point they probably wouldn't if they were given truth syrium. But right now he's playing. I don't know what's going to happen between now and Sunday. I have no guests on that. If you had to guess, Todd, do you think he makes it to this weekend? I don't think he's gonna play
this weekend, But I don't know. You know, it's so hard to figure this nonsense out. It just gets aggravating. Um, I mean, I don't think he should play this weekend. I first of all, I don't even think she should be on the Patriots in the first place. The whole thing stinks. And where's David Stern when we need him to avoid a trade? He should void like he did with the Chris Paul trade. You know, we need some type of you know, commissioner in here to to not
allow guys to just pick their own teams. It's just not fair. So from the beginning, I don't think this was fair. Now, whether he's gonna play on Sunday, you know, I don't even know. But I did want to say something about the Steelers. Um, he's The Steelers scare me a little bit. As you know, I'm a big Pittsburgh Steelers fan. I will bet against them if I think they're no good. Last week I didn't trust them. They never beat the Patriots. Um, you know, I have a
feeling the Steelers. Maybe on the downside, I know everyone was was so big on the Steelers this year. Oh you know, Ben wants to prove he can do with let without Levy, on without Antonio, blah blah blah. But to get beat down like that. I know the Patriots defense is good, but three points and you know, when did we ever say Judy Smith Schuster was a number one? He may not be. So I really want to see what we get out of Pittsburgh this week. This will
be a very interesting game. Yeah, it should be noted the Antonio Brown thing has nothing to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers, obviously, but it was just sort of a parenthetical side having to do with the Patriots. Who on guessing lines with Chrissy for those who listen to that show this week, that was one of my four word you know, I guess seventeen and a half sight unseen and he said, no, it's sixteen and a half. And I said, give me, Patriots, like, give it to me,
give it to me right now. And he said he thought sharp betters would would take the Dolphins at sixteen and a half. And I said, well, if they're doing that, that's just muscle memory and that's too cool for school. And sure enough, the line not only came to me at seventeen and a half, but it's going through me it's at nineteen. So we'll see if that is among our best bets from the crew today. We shall see number two. Best bet, Mr Palm, What do you got?
I have a question before number two? Please? What do you do on Sunday night? You go into a sensory deprivation chamber, so you have no way of knowing what the numbers are. Exactly. What I do? I get off Twitter this. I've been doing this for years. I completely get off Twitter. So what I do was I go into I put get all my notes for guessing lines. Because I have all these random stats that I give.
It's pretty pretty thorough, and so I go into the box scores and the recaps of every single game, and so I stay away from actually looking at the line. I go to sleep, I wake up in the morning, I go to work, and then I just guess. Sometimes I'm embarrassed by my guesses. Sometimes not so much. That's interesting because I was I was listening Monday morning, and I thought, well, he's guessing lines that were out. I don't get it. So thank you for clarifying. Yeah, you
got it. My number. My number two pick is really one A. I really couldn't separate these. I like these equally, but I decided to go with the forty niners. I'm gonna go with the Buffalo bill staying in New Jersey to play the Giants. As everyone knows the record crowd that listened to this podcast last week, my top play was the Giants getting a touchdown from the Cowboys, so I got to watch in horrors. The Giants defense barely
took the field in that game. I mean, there was no semblance that at any time they were ever going to stop the cow Boys, or that at any time they were ever going to cover anyone. I mean, they were making Dak Prescott look like Joe Montana. Uh. This is just a horrific, horrific defense. And what their game plan is for Eli, I have no idea. Um. I mean if they think that they want to get him on the move and that's gonna save his career. I
was impressed. I Mean, the Bills were down sixteen to nothing in a game that looked like they you know, they just struggled in an ugly defensive game with the Jets, and then we're we're able to put it together in the fourth quarter and rally and make every stop and uh and get the job done there. I was. I was more impressed with Josh Allen than I was with Darno in that game. And I think the Bills are
clearly the better side here and there. You know, let's face the Giants at home are are not really a home field advantage because the fan base so disgusted with them. They'll have plenty of Bills fans in that crowd. And uh. And I think again the better side, and you're only laying a point in a half. So my number two best bet the Buffalo Bills. Why are they playing Eli Manning? Why are they playing Eli Manning? Like? What good does
this do them? I have no idea why Daniel l is not playing To your point about their defense, Mike, the Giants gave up touchdown drives of seventy five, ninety three, eight, three, seventy five, and eighty nine yards on five consecutive possessions from the first through the third quarters against the Cowboys last week. That is not good, I'm told uh. And then Buffalo they went down sixteen to nothing. Josh Allen four turnovers in a six drive span in the first half.
Two were fumbles, two were picks, But the Bill's defense was really good, so they kept it close. It was only six to nothing despite all those turnovers and then the Bills were also minus three in turnovers, uh their turnover differential, and I think one of them was just a like a nonsense last play of the game. So really it was minus four and they still won. That game changed when Jets middle linebacker C. J. Moseley went
out of the game. So you're on Buffalo at the Giants, and that number consensus right now is one and a half, one and a half in favor of the visiting Bills. You are on the Bills, Todd, what's your number two? My number two pick is the Gardener Menshoe Show, and that is I like the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the nine against the Houston Texans. Now why do I like this? The Houston Texans are you know, put put put the
Saints game out of your mind for a minute. The Houston Texans are defensive team and Bill O'Brien likes to run the football, tries to protect this quarterback. He doesn't usually win by margin. The Jacksonville Jaguars got whacked against Casey. There were guys wide open, but Kansas City did that all year last year. So I'm gonna throw that out and I'm gonna say Jacksonville is really not as bad on defense as they look on Sunday, and I'm gonna
take them plus nine against the team. To me, that is not a team that likes to win by margin. And nine points is a lot of points in the National Football League game. Uh. You know, Houston has to have a come down after that Monday night game, which was just a thriller uh in Saints Land. Uh. To me, I feel like this is just way too many points. And Menshew did not look overwhelmed. If Minshew had looked overwhelmed, and then I would stay away from this. But minshow
to me, did not really look that bad. He did have two backdoor touchdown drives, which may not mean anything, but while the game was still in the balance, he was playing pretty well also, So I'm gonna go with the plus nine. To me, it's just too many points. I don't hate it. And by the way, who am I argue with you? Todd? You went two and one, we went one and two, So you know you're leading in the clubhouse. To your point about Gardner, Minshew twenty
two of twenty five. Those are Phil Sims Super Bowl numbers. Twenty two of twenty five, two hundred seventy five yards, two touchdowns a pick. For those who missed it, Nick Foles broke his clavical after just eight passes. I said on guessing lines winning the Sam Bradford Predictable Injury Award, Chris Jones hit him as he released the thirty five yard touchdown pass. The DJ shark Shark was great, by the way, four catches, forty six yards and a touchdown.
Jones landing on Foles, by the way to not draw flag. Foles expected and will be on ajured reserve now. He was expected and he was placed on injured reserve. He's not eligible to play again for the Jags until Week eleven. None of that matters for this game though, where it is Minshew. The one thing I mentioned to Mike about the penalties with the Niners ten penalties for the Jaguars seventy one yards. Got to clean that up. But that
is a lot of points. I'll give you that. Jacksonville catching nine consensus at the Houston Texans, who are looking to avenge that heartbreaking loss to the to the Saints on Monday night. That was something. My number two, gentlemen, is the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota Vikings at green Bay. They're catching three here. Now. Would I be surprised that the Green Bay Packers won this game? No, I wouldn't be surprised, as division game wouldn't shock me. But you're given the
Vikings three, I will happily take the three here. I was very surprised that it was a three points spread in favor of the Packers. It is a division game. Division games in a in a past time used to sort of default to three points, but those times are done. I guessed that this would be a pickum after Minnesota's great performance against the Falcons last week and Green Bay's you know, sketchy performance let's call it against Chicago. Probably
better football team than they showed. I'd give you that, but Minnesota Kirk Cousins dropped back eleven times in that game against the Falcons. He ended up eight of ten for ninety eight yards. He was very cool about it after. He's like, hey, we just do what we need to to win. Gary Kubiak and Mike Zimmer were very honest before the regular season where they said, look, we're gonna
run the ball. We are looking to establish the run, and they did just that in their opener against the Falcons Dalvin Cook for one eleven two touchdowns, Cook who had missed seventeen of his first thirty two games to injury as a pro. They too, by the way, I had a lot of penalties eleven for a hundred, but Anthony Harris had two interceptions of fumble recovery Green Bay and their win against the Bears, oh so long ago.
This is extrast here for the Packers seventeen pressures by their defense on Mr. Biscuite eleven by new players, but on offense against that vaunted Bears defense three point seven yards per play. They should do better than that, one would imagine moving forward. They were out gained in that game to still want it though we have gone over the rabisky woes already. But you're giving me three points. I get it. It's Aaron Rodgers. I'll happily take my shot.
With this Vikings defense and Cousins having so many weapons at his disposal. You're giving me the three. I'll take the three. Minnesota's my second pick. Todd your thoughts, I just I'm scared to take uh Kirk Cousins against Aaron Rodgers in the crazy Green Bay environment. Uh you know, last year at green Bay. It should have been for Green Bay, but they had that horrible Clay Matthews call that ended up being a tie. To me, I'm just too scared of that game, so I'll stay away on that.
I like that they're catching him in the warm weather, not in cold Green Bay. Three. Mike, I'd like to comment on Todd's second pick. I looked. I looked at that game as part of my teaser. I didn't use it, but I like his side there. You know, I think what people aren't talking about out of out of week one was just how good Mahomes was. Jackson Bill beat the living be David out of this guy. I mean they were hitting him high, low, and he was completing
all these passes. It was like a herculean effort that I don't think that DeShawn Watson is gonna gonna repeat against that defense. I think that defense got a little bit more skewered in the thoughts of of of of our batters than really they deserved it because Mahomes was that good. But but I like his side there, and then in your game, I think that's gonna be a tough game. I wish that was a one thirty game
instead of a ten am Pacific. This is a horrific lineup this week in ten early games and three late This is a great game and it should be. It should be kicking at at one thirty epic. I mean, that's a central time, so there's no reason they couldn't have made that a feature game as well. Todd and I were talking about this affair this week, the fact that the NFL last week was perfect, right, seven early games,
five afternoon games. Then you have the you know, in addition to Thursday night, you have the two Monday night games. That is the perfect NFL schedule. And now here we are a week two right back to the ten early games in the three afternoon games. What good does that do for anybody? Can we just get a lawyer who's listening right now to start a class act lawsuit again the NFL for pain and suffering and dude, for the ten games at one time, because the pain and suffering
on a ten and three is ridiculous. How are you gonna watch ten games at one time do in game on all of them? It's too hard, And I'd like to do a class action law to for pain and suffering. Don't they know that we bet on these things. Do they have any idea that we've been on these things?
Do you think you know it's all? It's also no good for industry, for all these bars and restaurants that do business on Sundays or casinos, and that it's horrific when you get down to three games because it really thins out your afternoon crowd and it doesn't spread out your business. So it's no good for commerce as well, no good for commerce as well. Excellent use of Herculean by the way, Mike as well. I think it's herculean. Yeah,
I think it's Herculean. I think he's right. You didn't like my They beat the living the David out of him. I was trying to be respectful and not say, but Jesus and go with one of your kings instead of a false prophet. Thank you, thank you. That's very considerate of you, very considerate. The true Jesus is Baker Mayfield,
and he got whack clus. I like the comments about Jacksonville though, because I do think it needs to be stated overreaction week right, Like we can't look at what happened in in week one A. We can't overreact and be we actually have to sort of focus on what did we actually see, right like, don't focus on the final And you're right, they beat up my Patrick Mose. He had to leave the game at one point. I didn't know that he was gonna come back. He did
because youth is an amazing thing. But it looked like he got hit in the leg pretty bad. But he was right back in there doing his thing. What's your what's your third pick? I'm gonna go to a total here and I'm gonna use Todd's number one pick game at Denver, and I'm gonna go under forty one with
the Broncos and the Bears. For for many of the reasons, Todd stated, you know, watching that game on Monday night, it was apparent early on, uh that Joe Flacco is just not interested in being an NFL quarterback, doesn't want to be in Denver, doesn't really care to throw the ball above anybody's ankles. That point specifically killed me. And it's not really interested in winning. I mean, this was terrible that it makes Jay Cutler's body language look good.
They were they were awful. Um what what more? What are the Bears gonna do to him? What the Raiders did to him. You're right, Todd lost lost in that game, as his story game against Aaron Rodgers and how they held him down and then and then. I don't think Denver's defense will be as bad as it was against Oakland as well. I think they will generate a pass rush. They can do this for two games in a row. Fancio is still a respected defensive mind. I think this
is an extremely low scoring game. When thinking about this, I thought this game would be something like seventeen to twelve or twenty to twelve Bears, So I thought it would go well. Under the forty one. I envisioned that Denver will kick four field goals maybe if they can get there. I think Fangio has some sort of a tie in with a McManus bonus clause that he just wants to keep trying field goals. So under the forty one is my third best pick. Under forty one Chicago Demo,
all right, pick number three? Time pick number three. I want to I want to say I like that one by by Mike for obvious reasons. Um, okay, here my third pick is a total as well, and I'm going to your rematch of last year's NFC championship game the New Orleans Saint over the fifty two. Now, if you guys remember last year, I believe these teams played in the regular season. The final score I believe was forty five to thirty five. That's eighty points, and the NFC
Championship game. The game was in the mid twenties, I believe, But you know, could have easily been more so to me early in the season. While it's not, you know, playoff, you know, playoff, you know stress, it's more, you know, it's not it's not as crazy a defensive game. I think the Rams in the second half got off the schneid and started moving the ball on the road against the tough Carolina defense. I think they'll be able to
move it against New Orleans. As we saw New Orleans you know, give up a touchdown in thirty seven seconds to uh Mr Deshaun Watson at the end of the game, which was a travesty of justice, but it happened. Nonetheless, I don't think New Orleans defense is that great. I think the Rams will get up into the mid twenties, high twenties, and I think that the Saints will also
get up into the high twenties. So I'm gonna go over the fifty two in l A. I usually I'm scared to take the Saints in bad weather, but it's not gonna be bad weather or on grass for that matter. It's gonna be good weather. So you know, I like the over. And I'm told that playoff game between the Saints and the Rams ended ignominiously. I just want to
use that word. Uh yeah, that was the obviously the uh the play that caused the NFL to now review past interference or to allow the review of past interference, as the Saints got hosed a year after the Minnesota miracle knocked him out of the playoffs. So you like the over there, Mike likes the under in Chicago, Denver. Let me before I get my third pick, let me tell you what nearly was a pick but missed the cut,
which therefore means they're guaranteed to win. I, against my better judgment, think very hard about playing the Lions, the Lions who destroyed those of us who had them last week as they snatched a tie from the jaws of victory Detroit two and a half points. Catching versus the Chargers by thinking here is very simple and The reason that I thought about taking Detroit there not my third pick, but I thought about them is that the Chargers are just losing bodies left and right. Hunter Henry is now
gone for four to six weeks. Mike Williams has knee problems, this of course already on the heels of Russell o'cum being out, not to mention the Melvin Gordon hold out. So many things with the Chargers, and by the way, Anthony Lynn still their coach for so over every Matt Patricia comment, I point, counterpoint you with Anthony Lynn. So I thought about the Lions. Ultimately is stay away game for me. I also thought about the Redskins on guessing lines.
I said, hey, uh, if this gets to six, I'm all about the Redskins, and I am starting to see the first sixes flash up on the screen. It's still not a consensus six, it's a consensus five and a half. But if it gets to six, that might be enough for me to play the Redskins. Just not gonna make that pick now, So uh call me square. Kansas City giving seven still seven a slight consensus over seven and
a half. Seven at Oakland, I'm taking the Chiefs for all the reasons you said about Patrick Mahomes, there is nothing about the Chiefs game, even without Tyreek Hill. There was nothing about their performance yesterday that lee me to believe they can't just run the Raiders off the court. Mahomes thirty three three seventy three touchdown Snoe picks. Most of those yards were in the first half. Uh shady Lashawn McCoy ten of eighty one. He's gonna get a
lot of run. And Sammy Watkins nine catches, yards, three touchdowns. Mahomes completed passes to nine receivers, even though Watkins had most of the highlights. Tyreek though out for a few weeks, that for sure. But I don't think the Raiders are good. I don't think that even after they beat the statue that was Joe Flacco. I'm taking Kansas City in a division game on the road, everything you're not supposed to do, and I'm laying the seven. How about that? So that's
my third pick. We'll see how we go. Todd was two in one last week. Mike and I we were one and two. Forget the Lions, forget the Eagles. It's a results oriented business. But I would have made the same picks again, I really would have, Like, there's nothing about those games the Eagles when we're when they were down seventeen and nothing, I said, I bet you they win.
I still think they cover. They would have covered had it not been for the Redskins given up a fourth and six and fourth and twelve on that final garbage drive. But that is the NFL, and that's that's the main point I want to say about the NFL. If I didn't have Bianca Andrescue in the US Open Women's final last week or brain dead MLB parlays, thank god I had those, because the NFL and college football destroyed me. It was a quick reminder everything that could go your
way is going to go against you. Tied you in a great point about back doors on a Numbers game yesterday. Would you like to repeat that? Yeah? Sure, The backdoor touchdown to me has become, you know, such an epidemic now because the NFL has made the game so offensive minded point of ridiculous. It's so hard to get a stop in an NFL game, and then once your team is ahead by enough late that the guys just decided that they're not gonna, you know, buckle down and try
to get stops anymore. So here's who had backdoor touchdowns last week. Caroline had down thirty to twenty God wanted to lose thirty seven to the Rams. Denver got one against the Raiders to lose by I believe eight points. Jacksonville had two touchdowns against the Chiefs on the back door variety, The Redskins had the aforementioned backdoor that hurt Gil's feelings. The Falcons had two backdoors Kota. The Giants
had a backdoor against Dallas. The only two teams that didn't really get backdoors were the the Miami Dolphins, who some might say are not an NFL team, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had just thrown a pick six to go down thirty one fourteen, had two minutes left to get a backdoor and didn't get one. But it's kind of understandable because at that point that you know that all the air was pulled out of the balloon.
So you know, basically what I'm saying here is if there was an opportunity for a backdoor, it almost happened every single scenario, and if you remember last year, it happened a ton last year as well. So Please be careful, especially if you're laying big numbers. Don't make the mistake I made in the Raider game where I had minus ten because I had the second half line which was Raiders plus four. The only way that's safe is if
the Raiders are up eighteen. Unfortunately the Raiders were up fifteen and I took, you know, a tough beat there, and so be very careful when you're when you're in the especially like the game like Euston Jacksonville, it's gonna be minus nine. If if they're only down by fifteen late, you're in a lot of trouble because these backdoors are an epidemic. You said that you know you you related
to the touchdown cushion? How many times during a bet do you, guys think about the the one score cushion of your bed, like if you're up, Like I'm constantly thinking about that when I have a bet going, am I one freak play? Like? Can I withstand a freak play? And until I'm at that point, I never feel comfortable with any of these bets in the NFL. Never As always, guys. Support for today's show comes from bookmaker dot eu and
industry leader for Close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a musk because their first post odds take the highest limits and pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player. That is huge. Bookmakers, a high volume sports book best suited for the sophisticated player, also caters to large recreational players, and their motto is always is where the lines originate, because chances are the sports book at which you've been betting follows their lines. Pretty damn
good chance, as a matter of fact. And right now, if you visit bookmaker dot eu slash gill, that's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L, you'll claim your exclusive welcome botus of up to three hundred dollars. That's Bookmaker dot eu slash gill. To join and claim your welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now. You will not regret it betting the only way I know how, the indispensable Bookmaker dot eu. Check it out, Thank me later. Teaser time. Teaser of the week, Mike,
we start with you, what do you got? I'll do like you'll do, Gil and give the honorable mentions like you like to do on this show. So I had I had a group of four here that I had to pick two out of it. And also i'll tell you the ones I didn't use. I thought very hard about taking the the Jets plus thirteen. Now with this line movement, I think it is an overreaction to this. I don't think Simeon is maybe as bad as he looked under Vance Joseph. That's a lot of points against
the Freddie Kitchens team on the road. And then the other one was Todd's game. I thought about I thought about teasing the Jaguars up to sixteen in that game. But here's what I did end up with. I ended up teasing the Ravens down to six against the Cardinals.
I still think that. I still think Kyler, Murray and Kingsbury are who we thought they were for the first three quarters of that game before uh, Matt Patricia decided to go into a pre event for eighteen minutes and and uh and and I think Baltimore is an underrated place to play. I mean, you think about two stadiums that are not far apart, with one being very little home field advantage, and with the Redskins and then the Ravens, I think that that is a very passionate crowd in
a tough place to play. And then the other one is your play. Gil I chieve teas the chief style to a pick against the Raiders. I don't see how the Raiders win this game. I think the Chiefs will. Well, we'll score in the thirties there, so I'm gonna I'm gonna take the Ravens and Chiefs in my two team teaser? Are we doing six point or seven point? Six pointers?
Six pointers? Because I see Baltimore at my third team, which would only move them down to seven, and Kansas City at seven, which would move them down to minus one? Am I wrong? That's that's correct? Dead, So six with seven and one the one is fine. So six to seven and one. And let me clarify something I said last week, because I think in my haste I misspoken.
I hope people got the essence of it, which is when you go to the Stanford Wong teasers, that the positive e V the plus e V teasers in the NFL are teasing home favorites of more than seven down through the seven and the three, and both home and road dogs back up through the three and the seven. So you get more than seven points. May have misspoken that last week in in haste, but I hope, I
hope everybody got the the correct meaning of it. What Mike is doing right there, as a long term proposition is not a plus EV thing to take a road favorite of of of seven or in this case at seven, but usually seven and a half or more. We're talking about down through the seven and the three. That's usually not like long term, that's not plus e V. But in this case I like it a lot, obviously based
on my pick, Todd, what do you got? Yeah? Can I mention one of the thing about teasers that I learned this last year, And I don't know if all the books do this the same way, but if you tie, for instance, in Mike's if he takes the Ravens down from thirteen to seven and the Ravens win by seven, Kansas City covers the tease number. I heard that at some books you you get a push and some you
actually lose. Is that true? You really have to check the rules of your sports book MGM, for instance, because I used to talk to j Rude about this all the time. I don't know if the rules still exists, but Jay Rude, if there was a. I'm trying to remember the scenario if there was a tie and the loss, I don't think he won. Yeah, and loss on the
teaser is a push. It's a push. Now, that's not the rule off shore, but like you really have to check the rules of the sports books, whether where there are legal ones here in the United States, whether offshore ones, because everybody plays it a little differently. And that used to chap Jay's hide all the time that he would have to give that money back. Yeah, that's why I wanted to bring it up because and I was looking at my game as well, the Ravens games to move
it down to seven. But I was thinking, but it could easily push and I and that made me remember that whole thing about the controversy about the pushes. But anyway, um, I can can you want me to give you my teacher now? Gil please? Okay, my teaser is going to be the Kansas City I know it's not the the e V you know, proper thing. I just don't see the Kansas City Chiefs losing at the Raiders, you know,
with just so casey minus one. Uh. And then I'm gonna move the Carolina Panthers for tonight down to one as well. So basically the Carolina Panthers from seven down to one, case from seven down to one, and there's my two team er um and hopefully I get as lucky as I did this week when uh, you know the youth Ben hit the field goal to cover the other side of my tees. Yeah, I'm going to all Stanford won teaser on this. I am taking Carolina. As I said at the beginning of the show, Caroline is
one of the legs. Te's it down to one in this game against Tampa Bay Carolina. As you said, even in defeat last week, Todd maybe should have won that game this past Sunday. Is that two bowld of a statement? Do you think that maybe they should have won it? I could. I think they could have easily won the game. You give a team a fourteen point lead, that's as good as the Rams, and you still were in the game.
So why couldn't they have won? Yeah? And and for me, Carolina being oh and one is a home game, prime time standalone. They're not trying to go oh and too. They're gonna win this football game. Jamis is on the other side of the field. And I will say this. You know, some bets you have to be willing to lose and if Jamis can beat me, Tip of the Cap proved me wrong. So Caroline is one of the legs on this. The other one is the Sunday Night game. I'm taking Atlanta and I'm gonna tease that through the
three and the seven. So I'm gonna tease it to eight and take the homestanding Falcons plus eight. I know they couldn't have looked any worse than they did against the Vikings last week. They were down twenty eight to nothing before they got the garbage twelve points. And Philadelphia, who I have in the Super Bowl, I really do. Um, this is not a shot at the Eagles at all, but I like the Falcons getting a full eight at home primetime Sunday Night. So it's the Panthers for me.
The Falcons Sunday Night tied into that. Panthers Falcons my teaser of the week. You already for the final two questions here that we wrap up every show with. And by the way, people should know we will have rotating guests this year as well. We're just changing it up a little. We won't have them as often, but um, we will have Michael Lombardi on the show. We will have the Brady Cannons of the world on the show. Maybe get the producing number five Jeff Parl's in here
as well. We'll do that as well. Maybe we can coax fort and Ball. I don't know what Fort and Ball's rules are anymore, but maybe he can come on the show. But we'll get the all star cast in here for rotating final two questions, though, gentlemen, let us begin with the one about the big favorites. Which of the big favorites defined by a touchdowner more, is the most likely in your opinion to lose outright? Not saying you're saying that it will, but what's the most likely
to lose outright? Starts with tonight's Thursday night game Carolina touchdown favorites, seven point favorites over the Buccaneers. Then Sunday morning, Houston nine point favorites hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, or as some people like to call them, the Jaguires. Never understood that Baltimore thirteen point favorites over the Cardinals, and then the biggest favorite on the board, the New England Patriots. We all stayed away from this game. At its current line,
Patriots are eighteen and a half. Let's call it consensus. This is actually like steadied out at eighteen and al eighteen and a half point favorites on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Then uh, Sunday afternoon Kansas City seven point road favorites against the Raiders, and then we'll throw should we throw in the Monday night as part of that, just to make it interesting, Let's do that. Cleveland, make it easy for you. Cleveland six and a half point favorites.
Now with the Sam Donald mono nucleosis situation, Trevor Simeon is your starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns at the New York Jets. Throw them in there. Which is the most likely to lose outright in your opinion of that group? Mike, the fighting O'Brien's from Houston. The fighting O'Brien's from Houston. More of an anti O'Brien or pro Jacksonville decision for you,
It's a combination. But I think Jacksonville, Uh, it's an overreaction this nine and Jacksonville went up against, as I said before, a great effort by Mahomes and and and an offense. That's on another level. So I'm not sold on that Texans. Uh. I thought they were pretty against New Orleans. Actually they got the benefit of that turnover inside the Tan in the first half. Back in half, they just absolutely shredded them town drives their first three possessions.
I'm gonna go with the Cleveland Brownies. Uh. Trevor Simeon. I watched a lot of Trevor Simeon last year. He's, you know, slightly below average quarterback. He's not gonna really throw too many picks. He's kind of like a He's kind of like the John Fox of quarterbacks. If you remember John Fox. He would play very, very you know, tight to the vest, and he would win your seven eight games because his teams would never turn the ball over.
So I'm you know, in the NFL, if you just don't turn the ball over and you wait for the other team to make mistakes, you can just win accidentally. Yeah, you could win seven eight games just by not making mistakes. I think the Jets game plan is gonna be Trevor Simeon, don't try to be a hero, don't try to lose the game, and let's hope Jesus himself. Baker Mayfield can throw a couple of picks and maybe the Jets could
theoretically win that game. By the way, if the Dallas Cowboys were in that group, if they had were just a ticker, they're so a point high. I would have picked the Dallas Cowboys on the road at Washington, because I think that would be way too high. But because they're not in it, my answer will be the and I don't expect this to happen, but my answer would be the Cleveland Browns as well, Cleveland Browns on Monday night, Let's see something from them. Let's see a win here.
Let's see Freddie Kitchens get through a game here with a win before I get all crazy about them. And I'm with you, I don't think that the move from Donald to Simeon was justified. I think it's an overreaction. Trevor Simeon, as you say, is a you know, as long as he doesn't turn the ball over. Got us figure out the status on c J. Mosley though, that's the big thing right now. Is c J. Mosley playing
in this football game? Because when he went out of that game against the Bills, that entire thing changed, and right now if you, uh, if you get the status on c. J. Mosley, as we do this podcast, and we're doing it for those who don't know about eleven am Pacific Thursday morning, the status on c. J. Mosley, who left the field with a groin injury on Sunday, very questionable right now. We do not know what his story is. There is nothing definitive on Moseley, you guys
seeing anything on him. By the way, while you look up the update on Mosley. If this game leaks to seven, which I which I suspect it may on Monday night, I have to bet the Jets. I mean, that's just ridiculous. Seven points. You know you're gonna make a You're gonna make a five point adjustment for Donald to Simeon. That's ludicrous, Sam. Donald is not a great quarterback. Folks. Let me go to Rhoda while. Let me go to the fantasy people, because that's probably the way to go to actually, cause
I'm looking for actual reportage on this. It's amazing how frustrating that can be. By the way, you like the reportage reportage c J. Mosley, Rhoda Wire, here's the latest. Gotta go to the fantasy people. For the for the real deal questionable. That's the official status, so nobody knows.
It's basically what we're saying here Thursday morning. But that would be the answer to the question for me on that would be the Cleveland Browns most likely the big favorites to lose outright, question if you could bet, Mike, we live in a bizarro world. They're sixteen games. You were forced to make a side bet on fifteen of them, but you got one free pass. One game you wouldn't even bet with my money. What game would that be? It's the Dolphins Patriots game. I just this number. I
thought about it. What I even tease the Dolphins up to twenty four and a half? I I just can't. It's just an NFL game, and these are still professional athletes, whether they're semi intentionally tanking, intensely tanking, whether this is the best Patriots defense, and so for I can't touch this game. This number is just it's not in my comprehension. Such a great thing to ask yourself. Would you even tease this to twenty four and a half. It's so true, it's so truly. I don't know. I don't know if
I would Todd, same question. I gotta go with the l A Chargers Detroit game. The l A Chargers have you know, we talked about this on on a Numbers game. They do charge or esque things to keep the other team in the game. They started off again this year. Three Bizarro plays in the last fifteen and a half minutes of the game, a bumble punt, a pick in the end zone, and then you can't make an easy tackle at the eighteen yard line. The Chargers are just the team that you just scared to death when they
have the lead and you're betting on them. And then you've got Detroit, which we all know caused us all tremendous heartache last week. Well you know which Detroit is it. There's such a whacko team. You know, you could easily see them being down nine late and cover, you know, with a backdoor touchdown. I just want no part of these two wacko teams. Two wacko teams. For me, it's Colts Titans, Titans favored by three. That's not moving off
that number. Ever. Um, I don't know. I have no idea how Tennessee looked great in their win over Cleveland. We all made second half bets or halftime bets on that Vrabel versus Kitchens. That worked out beautifully, But I'm not a big Marcus Mariotta guy, or as Mike Arico insists on referring to him in the Hawaiian pronunciation Mariota. Then there's Jacoby Brissett in the Colts who stormed back, and we went through that yesterday on the show about
how the Chargers had no business letting him back. But did you Kobe percent By the way, minimum five hundred bases in history, the best interception right in the history of the National Football League. He was one last week. Two touchdowns, no picks. T why Hilton was great, Marlon Mack even better carries from one put that all in the wash. I just want no part of that game Indianapolis catching three at Tennessee. Gil. I want to ask you and Todd a question if we have time, please absolutely,
because I've heard different opinions on this. It's not really betting related, but the two the double header on Monday night got chance for America to hear two different crews, and I wanted to get your thoughts on the The TESTA tour booker McFarland team in the in the booth versus versus Levy and Uh and Greasy. I have a strong opinion that one was vastly superior to the other. You believe that the Leavy Greasy pairing was far better, don't you? And I wish we could have of them
every Monday night. Yeah. Todd Wright, who does my fantasy segment every week on a numbers game Thursdays on Visan who is and, by my money, the greatest radio host who's ever lived. He was the host of the classic radio show All Night with Todd Right back on ESPN back in the day. He has a podcast called The Todd Right Toddcast, and he spent forty minutes forty minutes eviscerating Booger McFarland this week, just absolutely viscerating him. So if you're into that kind of thing, I point you
to the Todd Right Toddcast. But he's with you. He he is much more about leaving Greasy. I am not a testator guy. I think he gets overly excited at times, and Booger doesn't do it for me either. I don't feel astoria as Todd Right, but I think by default I go with the Levy Greasy group. I'm gonna go with Bill on that one. Boger don't annoy me that much. But Steve Levi, I've always liked Steve Levy and Brian
Greasy's U confidence. I'm glad we settle dead. Yeah, I'll tell you this, it's a hell of a lot better without Jason Witten in the past, because Jason Witten was off. Like, I'm with you on that. I do not like Jason Witten as an announcer at all. But why did they think Jason Witten would be that good? Why did they get sold on stuff like that? You got me? Did they do what he test runs with him? I mean,
how did they make that decision? I don't know. I mean they made Mitch, They made Mitch and PAULI try out at Jason. They could have at least made Wit Witten try out a do we know sports media executives are not exactly great at picking out sports media talent. Todd sounds like he has a little double entendre to that. But let that hang. By the way, you were not taking a shot at Mitch and PAULI. That was actually
a compliment to mission Paul. He wasn't absolutely they've only been in the business twenty years and haven't track right. That's right, all right. Well, I'm glad we got all that settled out there. Good luck with all your picks for Mike, palm for Todd, wish that megapod kill Alexander. Thanks so much for listening. H