Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 16 Preview

texted him, and we need his ps Okay. Jeff Parls produced number five from a numbers game on Visa Series X channel two O four, kind enough to step in in Mike's stead. Thank you, Jeffrey appreciate it. Of course, Gil. I will try to get my numbers right before the before I make my picks today. By the way, Jeff, I gotta tell you something funny about Jeff Parls. Yes, last week on Sunday, we're watching the games and he has the over in the Tennessee Houston game, right, and

so he's he's sitting next to me. You know, we all cheer when something happens and so Tennessee's driving the ball down the field, are like the twenty and Tannehill Sorry, they're at the five yard line, and he thinks he's about to get seven points, which would help his over of course, and he the an tanne Hill throws an interception to some linebacker who's not like the speediest guy

of all time. He starts is that who was more than Okay, So Whitney Mercer is running the other way, and and of course Jeff is yelling go, go go. And remember it's a long way from the five to the other goal line, that's yards, right, So he's yelling go in the middle of the go when the guys are about like the forty five, Jeff's like, go go. We don't care which way we get the points. Go go go. It was the funniest thing I ever heard. I was go and doing his own color commentary inside

the go. It was fantastic. He was explaining, explaining is bet while Merciless was going down the field. Yeah, exactly, it's perfect. It doesn't matter how we get the points. I still have to get over a certain number. But then he continues Gil. Then he goes right back to the go. It's like go, we don't get out. We got the points go Jeff Parlan Todd Wishnev can be seen in their full glory at the South Point Hotel, Casito each and every Sunday in the Wishnevs section by

the door. By the way, if they've videoed my reactions watching the Sunday games, it would be literally television gold, television gold. I don't doubt it. I don't doubt it. Our guest who has been waiting patiently listening to this, Michigas, is back on the show once again. He is a pioneer in the use of predictive algorithms in sports betting. He has my dear friend, ladies and gentlemen from Dr Bob Sports. It's Bob Still Hello, Bobby, Hello, Gilly. How's

it going well? How are you? I'm doing very well. Man. You were saying all fair before the show started, that you're two year old is a Petrie dish of germs. It is this true? Yeah, that's true. He is in daycare now and he brings that stuff home to me. And I never get sick, and all of a sudden I'm under the weather and making it tougher to work. My sixteen hours a day, so um, I'm doing my best. We'll tell him to stop being so selfish. And he's

two to sect though, so he gets we'll keep him alive. Well, I miss you, guys, gets along with his little sister. I've yet to meet his little sister, so hopefully one day soon. Thank you for doing this. I appreciate Go to the room for you, come on out to Colorado.

I appreciate it. Okay, let's do this. Usually we start with the Circuit Sports million update, but since Mike he's not here, we go right into the best Bets, so it's Best Bets Teaser of the week, and then of course the final two questions because there's no Thursday games to talk about. Your right, that is correct, Thank you, Toddy. There are three Saturday games though, there are three Saturday games, but those will just throw into the general pool of games.

Houston at Tampa, Buffalo at New England, and the Rams at San Francisco. Bob, you are the guests. Your first best bet, sir, side or total? Where are you going? Well, I am going to go with the New York Jets. They e t s Jets Jets Jets. Um, you know the thing is the Jets are underrated now on both sides of all. You know, first of all, they had a few games to see, three games I believe, in which the offense did not have Donald and the average about three yards per play. And I still think that

Jets are a little underrated offensively because of that. Also, in the last two weeks now, everybody thinks all the Jets have given up they're terrible. Yeah, but they had three starters out in the secondary each of the last

two weeks. Everyone's back this week, including all Pro Jamal Adams. Uh. They allowed to eight point eight yards per past play in those in those last two weeks, but in the first thirteen weeks of the season, the Jets only allowed six point two yards per past play, which is better

than average. They match up pretty well here, I think. Uh. You know, the Hispurgs best receiver is Juju Smith Schuster, who runs most of his h routes from the slot, and the Jets have one of the best nicke slot cornerbacks in the in the league and Brian Pool you ran second in the league in in yards per cover snap aloud in the slot. So it's a really good matchup for the Jets having their best cover corner against Pittsburgh's best receiver. UM, so I think the defense will

do a good Jeff here. Also, the Jets rank ninth in the league in our run defense metrics UM, which you know, on success rates and stuff like that. So I don't think Pittsburgh's gonna do a lot on the ground, and that just leaves you know, Duck Hodges, you know, doing it on his own basically without you know, having his best receiver open as much as usual, without a running game. So I think Pittsburgh's gonna struggle offensively. That's

probably the other side of the ball. UM. You know, Donald has had trouble versus the blizz in his career, and Pittsburgh bliitzes a lot. There's seventh in the league and blitz rate, so that could be a problem. But then again, it also leads some more checkdowns and getting the ball out to your running back, and that actually

helps the Jets here. As Levian Bell is a good receiver out of the backfield, I'm sure he would love too to have a great perform against his former team, and he's matched up in this particular matchup, he's matched up against one of the worst covering linebackers in the league. Mark Baron is the second worst in the league amongst qualifying linebackers in yards per cover snap allowed. So Lebann Bell is gonna have a good matchup in the Blitzing may backfire because he may get more balls out the

Bell out of the backfield. Uh And also Blissing tends to lead the quicker passes to slot receivers and Jamison Crowder happens to be Donald's favorite receiver and he runs most of his routes out of the slot and still is nickelback Mike Hilton his fourth worst in the league and yards per cover snap allowed in the slot. So there's some good match ups here for the Jets offense, UM, And so I think they'll be able to move the ball relatively well. Um and the Jets are tough at home.

I mean, Donald's played much better at home in his career and in the game that Donald has played this year at home, the Jets are four and two straight up. One of the losses was by one point to Buffalo. They've had wins over Dallas in Oakland and then the Giants, all his underdogs uh um and the only the only game they've lost at home by more than one point with Donald the quarterback was to New England, which you know that's gonna happen. So I I like the UH.

I like the like the Jets, plus the point I could get straight up to be honest, what do we do? We sprinkle something, We sprinkle all the money line, Bob, you know how this works. Spreckle spreckley um. And you know it should be mentioned that the Jets against the Ravens on Thursday night, by the way, very thorough analysis, Bob. As we know and expect from you, as always, you always come through. The Jets should have been pretty much tied with the Ravens at halftime this past Thursday night.

Jets on extra rest here. But you know they did Jets things, couldn't convert a fourth and one, missed the field goal. There were some other things that they did in that game that just shot themselves in the foot. Should have been much more competitive. You like the Jets. You're sprinkling on the money line. By the way. Steelers they're in the sixth A shin right now, currently in the a f C, but really no room for error.

Currently hold the tiebreaker over the Titans because of one of excuse me, because of one fewer conference loss, but two games left, So that doesn't mean anything because the playoffs don't start right now. But Bob, you always have a statement when the teams in a must win situation, Well, if they were good enough to win when they wanted to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation. That's right, And here's and here's the stat. Here's the stat. And I was gonna throw this out at some point

mine as we'll do it here. This is not an absolute must win for Pittsburgh because they can lose and still be in the playoffs. But I do have an angle that that's that's sort of the same. The concept applies that Pittsburg getting money because they're in the must win and people are looking for excuses the better game. Well, Pittsburgh needs to win, so I'm gonna bet on them because they need to win. Like I said, needing to

win doesn't mean you're going to win. Um. But anyway, teams that absolutely need to win or else they're eliminated from the playoffs. When facing teams that are out of playoff contention, they must win. Team are sixty two and one hundred against the spread over the years against teams that are out of the playoffs. This is what I said the other day. Oh sorry, yeah, no worse. People

overreact to this must win. They're grasping for some reason to better game and must win as it seems like a good reason, and it's just it's just doesn't work, and there's usually value playing against these must win teams. UH in the fifth and week fifteen and six and sixteen and seven win an angle of five UM. So it doesn't officially apply here because Pittsburgh can still lose

and still make the playoffs. But in in concept that sort of does apply here because I think we're getting line guy on the Jets because Pittsburgh gonna must win and people are betting Pittsburgh because of it. It's all my years spent with you, Bob. I knew to bring this up because again, and if you're in a must win situation, you must not be that good sixty two one against the spread, UH in an absolute must win situation.

As Bob has pointed out, this is not exactly qualified because there is a scenario where Pittsburgh could lose and still get in. But these do apply in many situations weeks seen in particularly Week seventeen, will have these. Um yeah, Oakland this week, Oakland obviously you know they're still hanging on, but nonetheless they already must win against the Chargers, who are out. I believe Indie, Uh well, Indie Laws, so

they're out Cleveland. Cleveland might be the other one. Uh or didn't or yeah, I think Cleveland's the other one. Baltimore is in the playoff. The Baltimore is oisle of the playoffs, right right right? The other the other side doesn't apply, That's right. It has to be against Oakland, I think is the only one this week. I'm dug

into all of it, but next week there should be bunched. Todd, you were saying that you had brought this up on a numbers game yesterday to right, not even knowing that on a numbers game on on Visa and uh it's a the sports betting network. Um that network. Um, I was talking about this yesterday. I always think the must win thing is overblown, And now Bob comes and throws some stats on top of it, telling you there's sixty one and a hundred. So I am vindicated, Thank you, Bob.

O problem and I've been tracked he missed by hand. And you know, it's really hard to look this up. And I'm tracking missed by hand just years ago. I just noticed it years ago, and I just tracked it by hand. I probably tracked this for for twenty years now. I haven't tracked it, but I used to notice it all the time because these idiots would get on the TV and be like, Wow, this team needs to win. The other thing is it's a football game. Is the guy the defensive back not gonna run as hard because

he doesn't need it for the playoffs? The professionals too, They agree, and then there's pride and then people people, you know, team players want to win. That's why I said when when everybody's talking about Miami tanking, I was like, no, players don't tank organizations tank. Players want to play well. Players want to win, you know. And then Miami started winning some games. Yeah, exactly the same thing here. You guys should just hug it out. That was beautiful, Todd.

I love you, Todd, love you. I mean. Dr Bob knows his stuff. As I've told you before, we have similar systems. He uses a model. I used the Losh model. The goolash model. That's right. But you're right also, Bob.

The one quirk about that, what you're saying is there's no database that's gonna be able to pick up teams that absolutely need to win versus teams that don't because they're so specific, right, like yeah, because because like we said about Pittsburgh, they kind of do need to win, but it's not absolute, so it's a very specific specific Once it reminds me of this exactly, Gil is when they go, it's very tough to beat the team three

times in one year, you know, which is ridiculu, ridiculous, ridiculous. It's another one that, like cousin, we must win. It's bullshit. Come come conference tournament time in college basketball, you know the double revenge team. People love to play the double

revenge team in the conference tournament. Well, double revenge. Playing double revenge teams will get you to the poorhouse quicker than anything else, because if they were good, they would have won one of the first two games, right, Bob, They would have got revenge the first time because they had a chance in the second game and they didn't. Um. Yeah, double revenge were events teams in conference tournaments in basketball, or like I think blind or like against this press.

Good luck with that, and Bob Kills conference week in basketball, that's a bread and butter for him. Todd, what's your first best bet? We'll go to you next. Okay, well I was. You know, we all know what I usually like to bet here, and that is my best bet. I always take Tampa over, and I like to stick

it up the ass of the Sharps. The Sharps last week, in an unbelievable situation, they kept betting the Tampa Bay over down all the way until it got to forty five, even at the South Point on Sunday morning, and I was like, Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Give me over. And I guess it was because they thought David Blow was the quarterback for Detroit or something. I don't know what they were thinking. But again, Tampa Bay came in for us, so you know, Tampa Bay over straight Textica.

I don't want to go with Tampa Bay over just this second. I'm still mulling it over because that all the receivers are hurt now and stuff, and they're playing more of a quality team. Um, so I'm gonna pass on that right at this moment, I'm gonna go with your buffalo bills plus? What do I get? Six? Or six and a half? You get? Let me see here. It's an excellent question, Todd. You get because that's going to be one of mine too. You've been you've been listening. Uh,

it's right in the middle. It's split, yeah, split, alright? So what do I get? Um, it's six? Is there's as many six as a there? Or six and a half? What should be the ruling book of choice? We've never had this situation come up yet this year, and I think it since it came from six and a half. It was six and a half, you know, and he was going over his bed and probably was six and a half. And it's really split down the middle here. So we'll give him six and a half. Is that

a half minus fifteen? There you go, six and a half minus fifteen. I will take the bills plus six and a half. If you notice, I don't do it the way Mike Palm does it, where he takes the seven. In this situation, you'll be like, I'll take buffalo plus seven. And then when we have to remind non buffalo plus seven, it's buffalo plus okay, Anyways, I'll take the Buffalo Bills. And the reason I'll take the Buffalo Bills is because the New England Patriots. And here's here's a narrative that

you're gonna hear a lot late in the season. Well, the Patriots do this all the time, and then of course it comes playoff time and they turn it on and Belichick win to the Super Bowl. Yes, that is the narrative, but folks, it doesn't usually work in this pattern. The pattern usually is the Patriots suck early and then Belichick cleans it up, coaches them up, and by the end of the year they win the Super Bowl. Not happening this year. They are not a talented football team

at the wide out position. There's no one for Tommy Terrific to throw the ball to who is open. In the first game between these teams, New England had to hold on with all their dear life to barely squeak out a sixteen to ten win. They had to hold the Bills at the three yard line. The Bills played them straight up, nice and tight. The Bill's defense is outstanding. It's definitely only in the top five or six in

the league. The Patriots have no one to throw the ball too, and Joshua Allen can run the football when all else fault fails through No. Granted, the Bills offense isn't good. I'm not here telling you the Builds offense is good. But it's good enough to stay within six and a half against the team that is offensively challenged as the Patriots are this year. They will not win the Super Bowl this year. You heard it here first, Thank you. I think I think we might have heard

it before else heard too. Um, I'm gonna I'm gonna jump in, Jeff, because I too. On guessing lines on Monday with Chris Andrews, this was the first game I immediately gravitated towards. I guessed that New England would be a four and a half point favorite in this game.

Instead it was six and a half. I'm own Buffalo to Buffalo clinch to playoff Berth With that win against the Steelers on Sunday night, New England clinched to playoff Berth for the eleventh straight season, which extends an NFL record against in Seneta, Patriots win the a f C East for the eleventh straight season, also by the way, with a win in either of their final two games, Bills would have to win out, Patriots would have to lose out for the Bills to win the A f

C East. But all the reasons that Todd stated, uh, this is too many points. The New England defense, I get it, they're great and the Buffalo offense not that great. But the other side of the ball, you can say the exact same thing, the Buffalo defense versus the New England offense. You're giving me six and a half points here does not make any sense to me. A am reminded, since Bob is on the phone with us here, Bob once had a football guy. I won't mention any names,

and Bobby will remember who I'm talking about who. His numbers always showed value against the New England Patriots, and the Patriots and the heyday of Belichick would constantly destroy anybody who felt that way from week to week. And you just had to throw out the numbers when it came to the Patriots because they were a different animal. I'm with you, though, Todd. I think this is a different Patriots animal then those Patriots teams. So give me

the six and a half points. I'll take the Buffalo Bills. Bob, you remember the episode I was talking about, right, yeah, Yeah. The thing is they they years they outplayed the Patriots outplayed my my math model by two and a half the three points every single year. So I would just I would just add two and a half point to New England every week and well and that would take. That would keep me off on them most of the time. Oh, that's why you have to You have to go to

the Google Losh model system, which you take. You take your model, then you throw in the Google losh of what you've seen, and you get yourself a mixture of a nice Google Losh of a system. Very interesting, very interesting. Jeff. Sorry, we'll get to you sooner next round. But what's your first best bet? You know, Gil, I'm going with with you and Todd just said each have the best bet of the week is the Buffalo Bills plus six and a half. Look, I I think everyone said said it

the right way here. The Bill's defense is phenomenal. New England's offense isn't very good. New England's defense is phenomenal. Buffalo's offenses is the erratic. We'll put it that way, since uh Josh Allen might be the most erratic quarterback in the NFL, you could get a great jot shallon game and Buffalo actually wins this game out right, where you can get bad Josh Allen and Buffalo's defense is going to have to hold New England's offense down to really stay in the game. But I don't know how

New England scoring in this game. The last time they scored sixteen points and sit and and a touchdown of that sixtheam was a block punt, so and the Bill should be able to keep this thing tight. I'm with you and Todd. I'm going Buffalo plus six and a half, which which means with all three of us having that as our best bets, look out everyone New England. The other way New England that didn't work out and said

that happened to us last week. We all had Miami right and then that did not work out nicely at all. I think it'll be a different result with Buffalo this week. I really do Bob pick number two, sir, well, I am going to play a total. I'm gonna play Denver and Detroit under under thirty eight. I believe it is right now, We'll give you the thirty. Yeah, there's a couple of places at thirty seven and a half and mostly thirty eight. Um. Yeah, it's a situation where we

both offensive lines are banged up. First off, David blow Um. You might remember he came out on fire in his first game on Thanksgiving through a couple of touchdowns in the first quarter. Since then, not so much's He's down to five point two yards per past play um through his three starts. And this is a this is a

tough situation down two key receivers. Um with Marvin Jones, you know, maybe you know historically been one of the better wide receivers on you know, maybe Galada is the best wide receiver now, but Jones is a solid receiver, and the and the rookie Titan Hockinson's out. Also, that leaves in with Galladay and Amndolah. Well, Gallada fine because Chris Harris is on on the other side. So Chris Harris doesn't have to worry about two great wide receivers.

He could just shadow Galada around and and and limit limit him. And then you've got Avendola in the flot and that slot receivers have a really tough time against Vic Sangio's defenses. Last year when he was with the Bears, they were one of the best in the league covering slot receivers, and this year, same thing with the Broncos, one of the best in the league and limiting slot receivers.

I think Avendola is probably gonna struggle against this defense, and Galaday is gonna be shadowed by Harris, who's an All Pro who's done great against other other number one receivers UH for years. So I just I think I was gonna have a tough time finding open receivers in this game. Um So, that's one problem. Also, the offensive Linealgas has banged up. The left guard Jodals had a great season, He's fifth in the league and pass block win rate. He's now on injury reserve. The Factups also

injured and out for the season. Um So, I think Shelby Harris UH that Denver's interior defensive lineman should be able to supply some pressure up the middle. And then you've got Von Miller coming from the outside against you know, you know, below average right tackle UH for for Troy Rick Wagner was terrible and he's also nursing a knee injury. So I think Denver is gonna have guys in the backfield, the middle, around the edge, and you know, and and and but I was not going to have his receivers

opened like he normally would. Um So, I think they're gonna struggle offensively. In Denver, you had Drew Lock his staffs overall is pretty darned good completion six and a half yards per past play, but all that was in one game against Houston, had a magical, ridiculous game in one game. Um but the only average four point yards per past play against the Charters, and last week the average four point seven yards per past play against the Chiefs.

And in general, rookie quarterbacks, the first two or three starts tend to play relatively better than they will going forward once the league has some tape on them. Then they get started to get shut down. That that might have started last week with with the Chiefs really locking down on Lock as as as I. As I just said, um so, I think Rock's gonna struggle as well. I just don't see. I mean, Courtland Sutton is the best wide receiver obviously, and the choice got a Pro Bowl

cornerback as well, Darius Slay. So that's gonna be a neutral thing. And I think the only option is gonna be gonna have as Noah Fans has had. It's been great as a rook yet at the tight end position, and the lines don't defend tight ends well. So if you're in fantasy, pick up Noah Fans this week because I think he's gonna have a big game because I think, yeah, I think something's gonna be shut down and Fan's gonna

be open most of the time. But that's one option, and he's gonna have pressure in his face most of the day. So I think it's both teams are gonna struggle offensively. And I come up with thirty four point eight points based on the based on the map model, even with Denverse safety cream Jackson out, I still on thirty four point eight points as a predicted total. F I'm going under going under a thirty four point eight

your projection. Thirty eight is the number you get it at. Yeah, people are in their Fantasy Super Bowls, people still playing DFS. Detroit's owner we were talking about this on a numbers game this morning, Martha firestone Ford. She said, uh, they're keeping Matt Patricia next year, and her quote was, we expect to win. Those are our expectations, which I was telling Jeff this morning is the equivalent of me saying I like candy. Those are my likes. So interesting sentence construction.

But they're going with Matt Patricia seven game losing streak for Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lines. They've lost ten of eleven. They started the year two oh and one. Matt Patricia earning apparently another year or at least the start of another year with the Detroit Lions. Todd your second pick, Well, I expect to win like a famous attire and carpet manufacturing magnates. Um, but I will take um. It's Arizona getting ten? Is that what you're you're seeing

out there? Arizona is not getting ten, They're getting nine and a half. Nine and a half. Interesting, okay, Um, you know what? Screw give me Arizona anyways, Arizona. I like the discipline. You know, I'm showing tremendous discipline here, folks, and in in buying off of a key number in its back them getting I'm getting what we call chin stof. That's right, I'll get sins off the key number just because you know, I love I love this Kyler Murray kid I really do. I I was a big skeptic

at first. I thought he was gonna be a bust too short. Uh maybe he was just overrated because Oklahoma has so much talent that you know, he could just throw with impunity. You know what. I'm a believer now this kid is good. He maybe you know, uh Lamar Jackson light, but he can definitely do things with his legs, and he can throw the football. And I think he's a pretty He's a much more cerebral quarterback, I think than people are giving him credit for. And um, you know,

I've just been impressed with him all the way around. Uh. They had a real nice win against Cleveland last week. Um, I think that Seattle whooped him up real bad the first game, and that's one thing that does concern me a little bit. But since then, I think, you know, this Arizona team is getting more and more familiar with the Klingsbury offense, and and uh, you know, they just become in my opinion, they've they've improved a lot as

the year has gone by. They played San Francisco um real tight in that game, despite the fact that Fats So through the ball in the end zone and it looked like the game, but I think Arizona is much better and Seattle. You know, Seattle is a good team, but there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors in the Seattle stuff. I feel like Seattle is a is a good team. I don't know if they're a very good team, and I think they're being considered a very

good team here as opposed to just a good team. Um, nine and a half points is not as many as ten. Uh my math model says nine and a half is a little less than ten. But nonetheless, I'll be undisciplined here and take Kyler Murray. I think I think my favorite part of that analysis was when you said the Klingsbury offense Cliff Klingsbury. Um, uh Cliff Kingsbury of course ingy um, sorry uh, Todd, Im I just would like to call a little bullshit here. Here's what I think

is happening. You are clinging to what a one game lead over me and our full season a t S standings is that the correct lead. You believe correct standings are gilly Ice one to Champ one. So one game lead. You have a one game lead where neither one of us are killing it. Let's be clear, but you have a one game lead over me. Todd has managed to mimic my first two picks that I made on guessing lines. I didn't even I didn't even hear guessing. Uh yeah,

I see what you're doing playing out the string. Arizona is my second pick. So I'm gonna step in. And if I were you, i'd be very careful because I really didn't listen to it. And the fact that we're both coming on the same things without hearing each other is a bad sign. Yes, yes, worse for me than for you. I have a feeling, Toddy. Nine and a half is what I'm taking on the Cardinals for all the reasons Todd stated, I don't want to be labor it. I'm with you on Seattle. Look, a lot of these

teams in the NFC. This is a really aberrational year. Four teams are eleven and three in the NFC, and in a fifth team Minnesota could make This could be in the playoffs as a sixth seed at twelve and four if they win out, and then of course there's the NFC East leader. But like, I don't think Green Bay's any is that great At eleven and three, Seattle, and I love Russell Wilson. I don't think they're that great.

I mean that honestly. I get the Lamar Jackson m v P thing, But Russell Wilson every year does it with nothing. By the way, That's why I love when people are killing Tom Brady or or making excuses for Tom Brady this year, Well, he doesn't have any wide receivers. You don't have any offensive line. Russell Wilson never has that any year. But I like Arizona. Kyler Murray is really scary to bet against, and nine and a half

is a lot here. And it's also one of those scenarios that Todd likes to point out with you know, hey, even if Seattle goes up, the back door should be wide open as well. So Arizona for me plus nine and a half or excuse me, yes, plus nine and a half Jeff number two. It's on Monday night. I'm to take the Packers getting five and a half from Minnesota. Dalvin Cook's regular season seems to be over, as that shoulder injury finally caught up to him in Los Angeles.

It doesn't look like Madison status is great either. It looks like Mike Boone is gonna get the bulkload of the carries from Minnesota, and that that frightens me because Cook is so electric and Madison has showing the ability to actually fill in very well when he's been called upon this year. And it's still Kirk Cousins in a prime time game, in a game where you in Minnesota's

gonna have the playoffs locked up. It's very It's it's basically impossible for them to hop green Bay even with a win, because the Packers would have to throw a game to the Terrible Lions the following week. But at some point Aaron Rodgers is going to have a big game again. It We're waiting. It has been. It has been stagnant for Rogers for a few weeks going now.

And I know Minnesota should have won the first meeting, even though they fill down in three touchdowns the Green Bay and Lamba all the way back in Week two. But I like green Bay in this spot getting five and a half points. This feels like a field goal game in the end, and I wouldn't be shocked if

green Bay wins the game out right. So I'll take the Packers plus the five and a half Uh, it's solely on the quarterbacks, even though I know Cousins statistically has been every bit as good or even better than Rogers since the early season struggles for Cousins. But I'm going Green Bay plus the five and a half Monday Night. Are we sprinkling on the money line as well? Jeff?

I think we very well may when this is all said and done, Gil, I want to see if this thing gets uh, gets even further up as we go along. I'm gonna need a yes or no on that. We'll go yes, sprinkle trickle, sprinkle me mine, all right? Best be going to answer. I'm going to need an answer. Best bet number three? Bob, what he got? I don't really have one, but I'm gonna give you one anyway.

I'm just looking over all these games like maybe you know, the first two I really like, but this one, I'm like, you know what, I'm gonna go completely contrary here, and normally my analysis is very uh. I think it's um you know, leads you in the direction that I'm going most of the time, and I have a really good fact to back up my pick, and this one I have none. I'm gonna take Tampa Bay. Um. There without Mike Evans, there without Chris Godwin, didn't matter last week.

Papistic is making everyone look good at the wide receiver position. If he doesn't throw interceptions, very dangerous to of course, he's probably gonna throw a one or two interceptions. But even with that being cooked into the model, I still think this line is a little too high. And Houston come up the big win last week as an underdog even division game. It's a little bit of a let down spot going on the road against the team that

they may not respect. And you know, more contrary stuff, Texas Will Fuller's back on the field, They're looking good. There's no real reason for a fundamental standpoint here to take Tampa Bay. Yet my model likes Tampa Bay even with all the injury adjustments, and you know a bunch of contrary situations that I follow that also favorite Tampa Bay. So I'm probably not going to make this the best best for my clients, but I like Tampa Bay um as as a third best be here on the show.

Let me let me just explain to you what happened. That was the doctor Bob football picks equivalent of Bob streaking through a mall. Like that is as naked as he gets with a pick without any sort of real nothing to back it up, nothing to back nothing to back it up, not even underwear. Todd, my model model like it. I'm really, let's let's adjust for Waffall. Okay, let's adjust to that. Let's adjust down for this, let's adjust to that. My model still likes Tampa. I'm like, Okay,

do I trust it? I guess my model has been good. I gotta trust it. So I'm taking Tampa. Jamis Winston first quarterback in the history of the NFL two straight weeks over four d fifty yards passing. Jamis what Tampa Bay. We were talking with Lombardi. I was talking with Lombardi this week on a numbers game at Visa in about how Tampa now is in this situation with Jamie is like, now, what do you do? Do you keep him? Do you sign him to this massive contract? Do you draft somebody?

Is the person you draft gonna be better than Jamis? Like? What do you do there? In that Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins no man's land of Oh God, do we push all our chips in the middle of the table or do we cut ties? What the heck do we do with this guy? Yeah, you know what, Gil, You're better off with the guy that throws that many interceptions been so inconsistent. You can't pay him huge, huge salary because then you're just gonna make the rest of the team worse.

I think you're better off getting a journeyman quarterback for a low salary and spending money on the rest of the team. That's more efficient way of making your team better than paying a mediocre to possibly you know, better than average quarterback a ton of money and then not

having money to to build around him. So no doubt, But I say that about I said that about Kirk Cousins and about Jared at golf, and you know that didn't stop the Vikings and rams, respectively, because you only win Super Bowls with a Hall of Fame quarterback, and I don't think any of the ones we mentioned are

or are going to be. Of course, time will tell, And the only other way is a quarterback on a rookie deal where he overperforms and you can pay everybody else, just like you were talking about Allah Russell Wilson with the Seattle Seahawks. So what about Trent dilfor Trent Dilfor. Trent Dilford and Brad Johnson are the last two examples of quarterbacks who buck what I just said that is

now seventeen and nineteen years ago. So you can what about Trent Dilfor and what about Brad Johnson all you want, but it just doesn't happen anymore. Toddy number three. I think the word Bob was looking for when he was talking about how he usually has a lot to back up his pick is he has a voluminous data. Voluminous is the word I believe. But we didn't see is Bucks.

Is Bucks getting plus three? Um? Yes, Bucks plus three, plus three and extra yeah with limited with smaller juice, Yeah, yes, Okay, So I just wanted to get that down to the erect there. Okay, So I'm I'm much like Bob. My googlesh model does not have anything delicious for the third pick. But what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go with the over in the New York Giants against the Washington Climb Haskins at forty one, and I'll tell you why. UM, forty one is not a big number to me. I

think it's kind of low on the low side. For the NFL. I notice when you've got teams in the NFL late in the season that are just kind of playing out the string, that the defensive intensity seems to wane a little bit. Um, you know. I think it's probably because defense is much harder to play, you know, of course, and see that late in games when games are decided, a lot of times you get touchdowns just because you know they don't care whether to give them

the backdoor touch on. The feel is a little less intensity in games that are you know, between absolute you know, also rans. So that's one thing going for me. The other thing is Clem Hapkins has started to move the ball a little bit more than than he did early on, and um, he's been halfway decent. I call him Clem. I know that's not his real name, but um climb not as as as you know early and Giants defense has never impressed me. I think they're just absolutely putrid.

So I don't see why at home Clem can't get you some points. And for the Giants, they're going against the Redskins defense. It's halfway okay, But sometimes the Giants can score like they did against the mediocre Miami defense last week. So, uh, you know, forty one, it's not that high in number. Give me, if you ever have a child a son, I demand that you name him Clem. I think what we'll probably Clem Shlomo wishnem Ton, of course, referring to Dwayne Haskins, but he likes to call Dwayne

Haskins Clem Haskins. Former Washington bullet In Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach. You know that game is very important. You know that why that game is very important? Todd wish Now Giants, Redskins. Um, No, it is the Chase Young Bowl. Now. I know that the Dolphins will have something to say about this as well. But currently you've got those three teams at three and eleven. Bengal is gonna draft first.

Bengals are gonna probably pick Joe Burrow, Ohio kid. After all, they benched Andy Dalton just to see what they had behind them all year. This is for Chase Young. To me, whoever loses this game is it a better position than the winner? And Chase Young might be the only sure thing in this coming NFL draft. So big game with that implication, But Todd is going over forty one Giants Redskins Jeffrey. Wait wait, something was gonna say something to back me up? Please? Yeah? Can I? Well, I'm not sure.

So I have a database. And as you were talking about this and too bad, she was like, that's interesting. I'm going to look this up. So I set the parameters. I decided, what are bad teams less than less than a four percentage at this point of the season, would that be considered bad? That's why I putty, but both teams less than four percentage, so less than six and nine.

So and I did the final two weeks of the season sixteen seventeen, and I decided to look that up, and as it turns out, two interesting trends revealed themselves. So I just randomly put this in to to sub four teams in the final two weeks of the season, since the home team in such games is forty nine

and nineteen against the spread go figures. So maybe it's the road team that doesn't care and their home the bad home team, maybe like let me have home fans here, that's here us on and the road teams like let's just play out the spring and get out of here anyway. But also looking at the total because that's what you're interested. These games are also forty seven and twenty one under really, so it's sort of sort of bucks your it doesn't sum. Yeah, so they have it two stub four teams in the

final two weeks of the season. The home team is two against the spread and the under forty seven one and two. Wow, those are random and pretty pretty ran. Yeah. I just plugged it in just out of curiosity and boom, it's there's no backfitting in that. Just plug it in and that's what you get. So interesting. So I guess in that case, maybe you do the Giants team total under. I don't know when you can buy those two things. I guess that's what you get, the road road team

not scoring a long um. But nonetheless, I just thought i'd throw that in because I do have the power of the database here on behalf of Redskins fans everywhere. Let's hope that that home team thing doesn't happen. Give me Chase Young, Jeff, what's number three? I'm gonna go over in Baltimore and Cleveland at fort nine. The first time these teams met, Cleveland scored forty on Baltimore. I know what it feels like. It was about forty five

years ago, not just a week four of this year. Uh. Look, Baltimore's offense is completely different than what it was back in Week four. Jackson obviously after the first four weeks of the year where he struggled, especially weeks two, three, and four after a ridiculous game against the Miami Dolphins

freshman team week one. But look, I could Baltimore is coming off of a weird performance where they had the worst special teams game of the entire NFL season by d v O A uh Aaron Shotson company that tweeted that out earlier in the week. It actually dropped Baltimore special teams ranking all the way to number twelve, which is amazing. Uh if we're just one game out of the top five. But this feels like Baltimore, Baltimore is

gonna be able to name their score. Cleveland I think is gonna be Cleveland's gonna score a little bit in this game. Offensively, I'm gonna go over to forty nine. This feels like it's something like we saw on Thursday night with Jets in Baltimore. Like, uh, and I'll go over to forty nine and a half. How can I inter stude in forty nine and a half, Jeff over, tho, I have I pulled the Mike palm. I'm sorry, guys. Yes,

I'll go over forty nine and a half. I like that too, I I I this feels like Baltimore is gonna score in the forties and Cleveland's going to score. I just don't want to like ten with a with a road team in the NFL. Yeah, forty nine app school would make go about those Baltimore special teams. That was part of the problem against the Jets too. They gave up all kinds of kick and punt returns. They had a punt blocked if I'm not mistaken by thinking

about the right game. Um, yes, a touchdown. Yeah, so you know that was a big deal Thursday night too, where you know here they are crushing teams and yet their special teams are abysmal at times. Um, my final pick is going to be something also with thin analysis, just to keep with the theme of our final picks

here in Week sixteen, slim pickens. But it's the de facto NFC EAS Championship and I'm taking the Dallas Cowboys, and the Cowboys are now just giving one and a half now the reason part of the reason for this drop. Although it did open at one, then it ticked upwards and then it's back down to one and a half. Dak Prescott limited in practice yesterday, so there was some controversy as to, you know, the extent of Dax injuries. Jason Garrett says he's not doing whatever he wants to

do at this point. But I don't think anybody really thinks Cooper Rush is gonna show up for this game. Cowboys win, they're in the playoffs, they win the nfcas Eagles win, they still need to win their final game in week seventeen. This is nothing more for me than sheer talent versus talent. Philly is a bare bones, skeletal version of the Philadelphia Eagles, with players like Word and Boston, names that no one had really counted on as recently

as two three weeks ago participating. And then you've got the Dallas Cowboys, who have all the talent in the world. And really, and this is a big if if only Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore we get their acts together and actually coach them up, I think they're clearly the better football team. I think if the Cowboys are ever going to show themselves. It's in a game like this. There's no excuse for them to lose a football game

like this. It is in Philly, It's gonna be a tough atmosphere, but I think the Cowboys bunch them in the mouth. They could win this quite handling. Give me the Cowboys giving the point and a half against the Eagles. Both teams seven and seven, and again Cowboys win there in Eagles win, they gotta win Week seventeen. So Cowboys are my final pick before before we do the teasers.

Mike just texted me his picks, so you want me to tell him quick kill, We've got real bad news here because he likes the Bills plus six and a half as well guaranteed loser. Um Broncos. Uh, he likes the Broncos. What are the Broncos minus what seven? Minus seven? Yeah? Okay, minus seven. I'm sure he'd like it at six and a half. And the Chiefs he likes at okay, the

Chiefs at minus six at Chicago. And then his teaser, he said, is the Eagles, which would be the Eagles at plus uh seven and a half Eagles plus seven and a half and he wants to take. Also the what's the other side of the teaser? Here? The other side of the teasers Eagles and Jets, which would be Jets plus nine right, yes, okay makes sense? Nine is Stanford long esk teasers. We know how those will going this year. Sport for today's beating the book podcast comes

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Once again, that's bookmaker dot eu slash gill g I l L to join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now. Don't miss out, all right, Bob, what's your two teams six pointer of the week. I'm gonna go with Tennessee and I'm gonna go with the Giant on that trend that goes against the Giants, I think I think with the Giants getting eight and a half, I think both are getting eight and a half, is that it's not about right Tennessee

and the Giants. Giants will get eight and a half Tennessee gets a half. Yes, that is correct for both Todd teaser. Bob, you got me real nervous now because the part of the reason I kind of like that over was because I thought Clem Haskins would be able to score, and he's decided that. I was worried about the scoring. But now you're telling me that that road teams are crappy when they stink on, you know, late

in the season. It's got me a little nervous that old Eli is only going to give us like ten points, so I'm gonna stick with my over forty one. But I am much more nervous than I was before. Um, So the teaser I'm gonna go with is um give me the g men as well. Um, I just you know, can the can the can the Redskins win one by more than than eight and a half of them or I don't know. I mean, that's not usually what they do.

So let me let me have the g Men plus the eight and a half, and then let me have the I mean, this is not the correct thing to do, but give me the Buffalo Bills plus the twelve and a half, because you know what, I just don't see him getting blown out in a low scoring game. It's amazing, almost, step in, Jeff, because we just round robins the three of us. Because my teas or was Tennessee and Buffalo, so bob led Tennessee and the Giants. Todd goes Giants

and Buffalo, and I go Tennessee and Buffalo. So just really round robin those three teams in teasers. What's yours? It's wonderful. I have not none of the teams in mine that have been mentioned so far. Give me the Niners down to two a half from six and a half and give me the Denver Broncos minus one. I'll go with that. Where Broncos Okay, you know what is you know what is yours? Before we get Jeff's what

was yours? I grete it down. Mine was Tennessee and Buffalo. Okay, So Bill's plus twelve and a half and Tennessee plus eight and a half? Correct? And Jeff, Jeff, Jeff's what forty Niners and the Broncos San Francisco minus a half and Denver he gets at minus one? So Niners minus a half and Denver minus one? Well done, Jeff? Alright, final two questions, gentlemen, We've asked them for years. First of all, the big favorites on the board, which do

you believe is the most likely to lose? Outright? Now, this is one of these weeks where the pickings, well, no, there's enough. Actually, I was gonna say, if I do seven or more, we got we got four choices. If I drop it down to six and a half. If I drop it down to six and a half, that adds like three more games. Do we vote on six and a half? Decide? All right, we'll do six. We'll

do six and a half. Make it easier here will include New England as a six and a half point favorite over Buffalo, San Francisco six and a half point favorite over the Rams. Both of those games are on Saturday. Then on Sunday, Baltimore ten point favorites at Cleveland, Indianapolis six and a half point favorites at home against Carolina Atlanta seven and a half point favorites. Call it, uh yeah, barely seven and a half point favorites at home against

Jacksonville Chargers six and a half or seven. I think it's seven now. Consensus home favorites again in Oakland, Denver seven point favorites at home against Detroit. Seattle nine and a half point favorites against Arizona. A lot of choices. Which of those big favorites is most likely to lose? Outright? In your opinion, Bob, I think the Colts. I am just not big on the Colts, and I don't mind

Greer at quarterback for Carolina. You know, Greer had the the highest catchable long ball rate in college and college football last year, so he was an accurate long ball thrower, and maybe he catches one of those long, Maybe get one of those long balls, get McCaffrey doing his thing. And I don't think the Colts offense is much to speak of, and I just think they're most prone to get upset. I like that choice. I loved Will Greer at West Virginia and that Colt's performance against the Saints

on Monday night. I think I said this on the show the next day. I don't care if you take a Dolphins team, Redskins, Giants, Bengals, pick your horrible team in the NFL, Lions, whatever. That Colt's performance against the Saints was maybe the most list single game performance I've ever seen this year in the NFL. They were terrible. It's like they didn't get off the plane. I do

not hate that play at all. Todd, same question. I'm a little worried about Will Greer because he reminds me a little bit of Drew Lock a lot of armed talent, not exactly cerebral lee enhanced. But anyways, Hey, he could have a good game, right Bob, So I'm gonna go with the uh. I think the Anthony Lennards could could lose this week, um only because they're the Anthony Lennards. They've got the gelical quarterback and um, you know him, he loves to you know, a guy helps him up

and then he still screams in the guy's face. Very spiritual, feel, very spiritual. So um, I'm really getting sick and tired of his act and the Anthony Lynn act. And why not they could lose, you know, they're a joke team. I'm just tired of the Chargers, so I could see the Raiders beat him. Jeffrey, I'm going with Jacksonville. And I know I've said first game Gil that that the Jaguars have given up, but don't underestimate how much all

those players hate Tom Coughlin. And Tom Coughlin obviously got caned. Now. Of course he doesn't coach the team, but his ridiculous, old school, ridiculous cloud has been seeped over that team this whole year. He's gone. Atlanta has been so bizarro this year, with winning at San Francisco and winning at New Orleans this year and then stinking the rest of the year, it would make total sense to me of Jacksonville. Uh, somehow pulled one out of their behinds and managed to

win that game. So I'll go Jacksonville. What that. Wow. I did not see that one coming, especially from you, Jeff, who who again had pronounced Jacksonville dead a couple of weeks back. But I get the reasoning. I am going with everybody, the New England Patriots. I am going with the New England Patriots. I know, I know it's Bill

Belichick and the Patriots. Patriots six and a half point favorites total thirty six and a half just by that conflation, that might be the answer, But I really believe that the Patriots are vulnerable here. I don't think Tom Brady is any good anymore. I really don't whether that's because of the wide receivers and the offensive line. He's part of it as well. It's probably all three things. I think the Buffalo defense reeks havoc in this game. I

think New England is the answer to that question. Indianapolis would be a close second, but I think New England is a is the choice for me, which is probably my boldest answer to that question of all time on the megapod. But I really do think they're the answer given those choices. Final one. We live in a bizarro world. We are forced to bet fifteen of these games on the side, but we're allowed one free pass one game. We're on the side. You're like, I want no part

of that whatsoever. Maybe you don't use that word. I don't know, but you get the idea, Bob, what would be the game? I think Cincinnati Miami. I mean, that's probably the easy choice. I make it. I make it pick. Who knows what the motivation is free there these teams. Uh, I probably stay with him that one. You make it pick in the market, makes it pick todd I'm gonna go with um Carolina, Indy. I just don't have a good feel for what is Carolina. You know, sometimes they're good,

sometimes they're bad. Indianapolis. Sometimes they're good, sometimes they're bad. It's just too much. I don't know what's going on, Jeffrey. The Los Angeles Raiders and the San Diego Chargers in the game. I'm staying away from. No idea what either those teams can possible. They're capable of anything in each direction, both teams, So I'll stay away from Raiders Chargers. Todds and Chef made the error of calling them the San Diego Chargers. Do you have your Charger song ready to

go today? Are you ready? I've tried to do this many times. But I'll be honest with you. When I do a song, I have to be a tremendously good performance. I don't do heck. I feel that the San Diego Charger song, if any of you have heard it, is a very difficult song to sing. It has a lot of the song to it. It has a cadelic nous. So instead of that, in lieu of that, I will sing Keep It Coming Love by Casey and the Sunshine Band. Keep It Come and Love, keep it come and Love.

Don't stop it now, stop no, no, stop it now. Just a complete random substitution that was outstanding. Todd, you saved yourself. By the way. When I was a little boy, Casey and the Sunshine Band was my favorite group of

all time. I was if you watch something great, go on YouTube and put in keep It Coming Love Casey and the Sunshine And there is a video of Casey looking as coked out as a human being could possibly be phenomenal, dancing dancing in green aqua pants that don't fit, and two and two ladies behind him dancing with it is just absolutely man. H w you Casey. When I was a little kid, first of all, No one told me that all these songs were about sex, right, I

had no idea, But that's the way. Get down tonight, boogie shoes come on. Oh, by the way, there's another one where Casey and Sunshine. He is the entire band. It's him and a whole bunch of black guys and girls and one other white guy. And they they're wearing tuxedos, white tuxedos that are bedazzled with no shirts. I'm wearing. I'm wearing that right now. A matter of fact, who'd I love that? Look? So todd? Is that? What you do? You just YouTube get watch Casey and the Sunshine videos,

Like how did you get on that? Well? Something like I like to go on YouTube sometimes and start just either I'll be like watching like old clips of Letterman or something, and then sometimes I'll start going over into like old songs, and I found that one, and then of course it always like suggests a whole bunch of other songs for you. And so then I'm off and Casey and the Sunshine band because I love Casey and Sunshine. There's so many good good So me and my brother

had a cassette tape. Bob by the way, aren't you glad you did? You agree to do this podcast? And me and my me and my brother had a cassette tape where I must have been like five years old and he was nine years old and we were singing Casey in the Sunshine Band songs and it got when my car got stolen in San Francisco. I think we lost that cassette. But I will say this about their music catalog. Laugh all you will about their songs. But I'm your Boogeyman is a jam. How about the shoes

the shoes song, Boogie Shoes. Yeah, Boogie Shoes is another one. You know, I saw Casey in the Sunshine Band in San Francisco. You know they have the city you know, New Year's Eve gala every year in downtown. Yes. Uh, they played in the same tent. Now they had lots of different acts all around all around the area. They play in the same tent with Shaka Khan. Now that was a fun night. Well what this is like old Casey in the Sunshine Man, Like, how old were they

at the time? This was years ago alright, so not crazy old but still old. Yeah, thank you for that, Todd. Where were we? Where did we answer? All? The questions, Oh no, we didn't answer this. Oh I need to answer it, that's right. My choice would be Todd's choice Carolina Indianapolis. I have zero feel for either football team. Carolina is about as middle of the road as against. Their defense is abysmal in Indianapolis didn't show up at all last week, so who knows with a game like that,

So Caroline Indianapolis my choice as well. Gentlemen, thank you as always, appreciate the time, Todd as always, jeff thank you for filling in for Mikey. Thank you, Jeffrey, appreciate it. Thank thank you for having me Gil. That's always a pleasure to do. That's always a pleasure to have you and Bob man Uh, you are the best man. I so appreciate you doing this, and thanks for playing along with our Casey in the Sunshine band aside and actually

throw it in that you saw them in a tent. Todd, take us out with keep it coming love, keep it coming low, keep it coming low, don't stop it stop, no, no stop it. Todd, just give me the intro of the musical intro that you were doing at the binning so I could take us out you when you went that. Just give me that and do it. Thanks everybody for listening. Good luck with all your bets this week. Week sixty in the National Football League,