Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview

Circuit Casino. It's Michael Palm. Hello, Michael, good morning. We're halfway there, as Derek did his press event on Monday, just one year out from Circle Wow. On schedule, on schedule, on budget, on schedule. When do you expect the contractor to be like, we can't get it in December twenty. Is that gonna happen? Well, they have. They have a lot of incentives not only to get it done on time, but incentives to get it done early. So I think

it's gonna happen. Okay, alright, And on my left, uh, the one of the stars I shouldn't say these star, but one of the stars of show times. Uh. Four Part docuseries, Action Ladies and gentlemen. Everybody's lovable South Point resident. It's Todd Wishing. Hello Toddy. Hi, Dr Alexander. How are you. I'm doing very well. Um. You know, if you give me fourteen weeks of football, I will get you a clean sheet. That's what I did last week. Fourteen weeks. I promise you I will do it for it. It's

all it took for me. And our guest today is back for the second time this year. He's always the leadoff hitter on the megapod. Every year he always does our first show. He's always back for another, and Week fifteen is his calling. It is Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest winner from the San Susi team that year. It's Brady Cannon. Hello, Brady, I am good. How are you? I'm doing very well. I think I might have asked you this last time. Do you like me to say

twenty eleven anymore? You just like just say former, dude, just say former at this point. No, No, I mean that that was a fantastic year for me, so I'll never let it go. I mean it was. It's starting to get longer and longer ago. But hey, you're you still got the title. I remember back in the day, you know, when you first had me on after that contest victory, we were talking about, you know, the money is really nice, um, but it's really all about the title.

And as the years have gone on, that is more and more rings true. It's about having that title. They can never take it away from you. Are you in the rings? Do they have a ring of fame there at the Westgate now with the former title holders. I don't think they have a ring of fame, but I do have a ring. There's a ring ceremony in all right. Yeah, they had that, Uh, I think they had that before

the beginning of last year's contest. They invited all the former winners and handed out rings and stuff, so that that was very cool. All right. How are you doing this year? Uh? Five hundred? Not so good. We were actually uh doing pretty well and sir and you know had a chance and then uh craft the bed last week. So we're done there too. It's onto the mini contest,

as I say, which begins this week. Yeah, circa I'm I guess I'm alive in the final circle quarterly, Michael, what is the update on the uh the last of the four quarter prizes. Well, remember everyone, this is a five week quarter, because there are seventeen weeks in the NFL season with buys. We have two entries, and it happened to be by the same gentleman that are at ten and old. Wow. For him, the good news is

he's in good shape. But for him, the bad news is he's got three weeks to go, not to one entry at nine and a half points, and then another fourteen at nine overall, you know, overall for the season. Our friend the booty blockers UH is still in the league at forty nine and a half points. He leads m J Tad by one point and Live Odds by a point and a half, and then it's another Uh point and a half back to the next three. So uh, only only three people within actually two and a half

points in the league. Those three people's lives right now are obsessed with this, like they can think of nothing else at this time of year. Well, but if your name was booty blocker, you might be thinking of other things, don't you think? Not? For for at least three weeks you're not gonna be speaking about You're not gonna be thinking about booty blog. Todd how did you do last week? Crappy? I think I think I was either three and two or two and three. I think two and three. Three

and two is not crapy. So I'm three and a half back because I went two and three and then I went four oh and one last week, So many people between me and the two. Tenan knows which again he's got to. Tennan knows if he's able to keep this up for another couple of weeks, he'll come up with the strategy of those two entries to be able to ensure himself not maybe not to ensure himself victory, but to maximize his chances for winning the quarterly. That's sure.

The quarterly prize that circle one thousand plus and of course the prize to win it all is right in the name of the contest, the circumillion. Before we get into our best bets boys and our final two questions at the end of course, and our teasers of the week, we always want to talk about the Thursday night game first tonight, not exactly a barn Bird. It's the Jets at the Ravens right now as we speak. By the way, the Christmas tree is lighting up and seventeens are appearing

in multiple locations. Uh this was fifteen when the news came down from John Harbor that Lamar Jackson earlier in the week was day to day with a quad injury that he suffered this past weekend. But as it turns out, and by the way, it was taken down in many locations, the point spread was but now it's back up because Lamar said yesterday I'm playing and it's all the way to seventeen now. Any thoughts on this game, Brady Thursday night?

Not exactly a marquee matchup. I made the number sixteen and a half originally, and that was on the assumption that uh uh Jackson was going to play. I think everybody's felt all along that he was going to play. UM, but I think it's too many points. I actually played the Jets on a teaser um when it was like fifteen and a half or something took it all the

way to twenty one and a half. The Ravens have been off a couple of pretty good tests in a row against San Francisco and Buffalo, and then they've got two division games coming up, so I think this is a little bit of a hole in the schedule forum off of a short week, I see the Jets stand within the number. Mike, here, you scared it all that

because of that Lamar Jackson injury. Like this could be the game where if the Ravens went up a bunch that they might just say at some point, all right, you've done enough here, Lamar, let's not mess around with the quad r G three have at it, and this could be the Todd wishnev back door special. I I actually want to go. I'm gonna use this as a

best bet at seventeen. I'm gonna take Let's not forget it's not just the last two games, but it's four in a row for the Ravens Houston Big Spots, the Rams, San Francisco and then traveling to Buffalo short week, and remember the Jets are the number two rush defense, two in rushing yards per carry. I think that I think that that the Ravens are not going to be able to move the ball up and down the field that will as some may think, and this number is inflated.

I wouldn't really make this number much closer to fourteen than seventeen. I think with the questions about his quad, I don't think you're gonna see him if the game is it is a two touchdown game, where a seventeen point game in the in in late in the third quarter, you may see hardball pull him out for the fourth quarter. I just think there's a lot of reasons here why this number is is too high, and I'll make it my first best bet Jets first best bet for Mike Phone.

By the way, my number on guessing lines was Ravens minus fourteen on the button. Uh so I made a bet before. When the Lamar Jackson news came down, I immediately grabbed Jets a plus fifteen, thinking I can either get off it if Lamar plays, or it'll be this massive middle for me if he ends up not playing that I could that I could make IM not so sure. I don't like the Jets plus fifteen to be not a best bet for me, but that's what I have

in pocket. Anyway, Todd, any thoughts here tonight. I just want to say, historically, something happened here on the Megapod this morning that has never happened before, and that is Mike Palm actually gave a pick with the correct line without having to say Todd and Gil is that the right line and getting an extra half a point? No, he actually got the seventeen. Didn't have to ask about it right, didn't try to chisel or anything. She's just

gotten correct line. I gotta get a hand. I gotta give him a hand for actually coming and being a reasonable sports better. Thank you, Mikey. It's only because Gil said it touched seventeen. I didn't know. I would have had him asked, but Gill gave it away. Oh, I'm sure you would have been like he. I'm sure he would have been like Jets plus seventeen and a half. Uh Okay. I will take as far as this game. I don't want any part of it. I don't know. Maybe i'll in game it. Who knows what you're gonna

get in these ridiculously large spreads. I will say that you better be up within three late because this has backdoor smelling all over it, smelling um. Maybe I'll get involved in the total. I don't know. I don't I don't have a real good feel in this game at all. Ravens nine wins in a row, longest regular season win streaking franchise history. They already clinched a playoff berth. Now

they're playing for seating. They want that number one position and home field advantaged throughout the a f C playoffs. Right now they are in the number one spot. They've held eight straight opponents to twenty points or fewer. That also ties the franchise record. Last week, first nine drives, they held Buffalo to seven punts of fumble in a field goal, So that's not bad Jackson. By the way, last six games, twenty one touchdowns, one pick. Is that good?

And of course, while Baltimore came off the win against Buffalo, I touchdown. Jets coming off a game where they beat the Dolphins thanks to the refs helping them out at the end, a game where ten field goals were kicked, seven by Miami's Jason Sanders, but the Jets wanted one on a forty four yarder from Sam Kicking ficking as time expired. Brady best bet number one. My friend, Hey,

I want to first say I've realized something here. First of all, it's always fun and educational and an honor to be a part of the megapod, But this time around, I am in the company of the winner of the Twitter Parody Account Awards Best Supporting casino guests Mike Palm, the runner up for Best Morning Host, Jil Alexander, and a nominee for Best Supporting non casino guest Todd Wishnav. This is Beast and Royalty here, gentlemen, Mike. Mike takes

these polls very seriously, don't you, Mike Brady. I'm gonna win my second Golden Mike today is Derrick Stevens and I are over as best. My guys in the Desert side Piece. Oh my goodness. I thought side Pieces was like a sexual thing. That's exactly what it is. Taught. Yes, I know that it's a joke. I was making a joke as well. Thank you, Gil. It sounded like you were actually for actual clarification, That's what it sounds like. I'm pretty stoked to be uh in the presence of

you award winning folks. Thank you, Thank you so much. Only Mikey can really say that he took the crown on these pools. Let's not. Let's not gloss over the margin of victory over John Murray, who gets much more visa airtime. John Murray is co hosting with Parles on Monday and Tuesday. He gets to go on Brent Show for half hour on Wednesday. He has his own show with j VT and Humans on Sunday night, and I can barely get on the freaking network. And I took

him out in a body bag. Okay, what do you what do you think is the most impressive result on that? Do you think if it was a parody account for I don't know, Mike me, how much percent do you think I would get over the other candidates in my category? I don't know, but I think that I think Gil, that you would have had a real live shot of winning that category, except I think your power raiding went down with these Wednesday shows. I'll be honest. I think

Bill could have Bill could have totally. That's hysterical, Mike, you just hysterically. UM, I would have. I would have thought that Gil could definitely beat the racing car show guy for sure. He was I don't believe he was mentioned in the poll. Probably could have been him. All right, Brady, I'm sorry, We're just we went all right now. I I started that. I apologize. My first play. Gil is going to be on the Atlanta Falcons getting ten and

a half or eleven points at San Francisco. Um, this is similar to the situation the Texans faced last week. They came off of games against the Ravens and the Colts and the Patriots with a division opponent in Tennessee on deck. The forty Niners are coming off of Green Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans, and of course that last one was a huge victory over the Saints, just like Houston had a huge win in their last game at that

Trio over New England. And then big division tests on deck for the Niners too with the Rams and the Seahawks. So just like Denver was a little hole in the schedule for the Texans last week, so are the Falcons for the Niners. And not only are these two setups very similar, but it was also two straight grueling weeks against the Ravens and the Saints for the Niners. And now to come back home off of that and after and have to cover eleven points, I just think it's

too much to ask. And the Falcons on their side, they come into this game having gone three and two in their last five and they've outyarded their opponent in four out of the last five. I also like you have to go back a little ways on this one. But I like that these organizations are pretty familiar with one another. They were division opponents for over thirty years, and more recently you have the Shanahan connection. They've met

in the playoffs a couple of times. Um. I think the fact that they have that close knit history, I think that also helps Atlanta. It's kind of like their quasi division opponents. Now. I know San Francisco has success against non mobile quarterbacks, and certainly Matt Ryan is that. But again, I think the number of points is a little strong. I made it eight, so I'll gladly take

it on the other side of a key number like ten. Yeah, and uh, but they beat the They beat the Saints a couple of weeks ago, so you know they could beat a good team. Yeah, we'll give you eleven here to Brady. Eleven, I think is the consensus on this now, so you get the full eleven on the Falcons. Falcons coming off win where they beat the Panthers, they doubled them up for sixty one total yards of offense in

that game. Of course, the Niners the much more more key forty six win over the Saints, where they amassed five hundred sixty and total yards of offense Niners like the rave Ends in the previous example, trying to get home field throughout the NFC playoffs in their case eleven and two right now. But eleven points is eleven points, so you're banking on the Falcons covering that number. Mikey, we already have yours. You're on the Jets plus seventeen Yes, yes, correct, alright,

And Todd, he's the seventeen and a half. Seen it might change by the end of the show, Todd, can I can I tell people what your best bet is gonna be? I can almost guess it. Go ahead, Tampa Bay over Gilly Alexander coming up big. That's why they call him Gilly. I Tampa Bay over. I believe I can get forty five and a half or forty six? Which do you? Which do you say, sir? Forty six? Sorry, okay,

I'll take Tampa Bay over. I don't know if you've ever heard me talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before, but you've listened to any megapod or any fantastic Wednesdays on a numbers game. Even though Mike likes Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday better, um, I talk a lot about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being the overbetter's dream team. They're the um you know, they're the They're just the best.

What can I say? They don't play defense, they are very explosive offensively, and Jamis can always throw you a pick six in for good measure. Last week and and you know what, tell the Sharps to go jam it up their sharp asses because they bet they betted down from like fifty down to forty six and a half in the indie game. And I said, are these people out of their effing minds? This game is going over, and it's going over huge it. I think it almost went over in the first half. It was ridiculous. It

was the same old story. The other team, if they're halfway decent, can move it on Tampa. Tampa can move it on them. And then you even had a Jamis pixix. You had everything you want in a Tampa Bay over final score. Now, I know Mr Mike Evans is not out, I mean is out for the season, but they still have an off weapons, so I'm not worried about that. I know Detroit has a backup quarterback, but he's gonna be at home, so it's gonna be easier for him

to move the ball, So I'm not worried. Give me the forty six over, and if it ain't broke, fix it. The one week I told you not to bet it, it went under. So let's go over, baby over forty six Tampa Bay, Thank you, Hey Todd. What's the difference between jam and jelly? Oh? Boy? Did I tell you that one? Gil? No, I've heard this long ago Todd answer. You can't jelly it up their sharp passes. Well, well, well maybe you can. Tampa Bay winners of Todd the

arbiter of humor, does not get that. Tampa Bay winners of three in a row, four of their last five. And you're right. It was the most jamis of all jamis games. Last week they were down fourteen where the Bucks late in the third quarter they come back storm back against the Colts Winston the most jamis of all lines thirty three or forty five for four fifty six, four touchdowns, three picks, God love it, two total yards of offense for the Bucks, a game they won while

being minus three in turnovers. So Bucks Lions, by the way six game losing streak were starts. First game last week where they didn't hold a lead against the Vikings, but the numbers forty six, Todd's going over. It's the Buccaneers. Just a reflex, now, Todd, do you tell everybody what my first best bet is gonna be? The Myami Dolphins? My mom it dophens mymmon Dolphins plus three and a half. That's exactly right. You know what bothers me about that?

You never go for the high notes on that line though, You always chintz out at the end to use your expressions because I'm not. I'm not really a talent um musically. I'm more of a just a cerebral type of guy. Mathematics and charisma, Oh, math and charisma. What can I tell you, Mike, He's Ready's right. Charismatics, I believe we call that when we put them both together. I think also I've proven to be athletically inclined as well. Some

tennis matches might say something to that effect. Here we go. I'm taking the Dolphins every week for guessing lines. For those who listen to guessing lines, you know my story with the Dolphins ever since that Miami Pittsburgh game, which was the farthest off guests in guessing lines history, I guessed seven and a half. It ended up being fourteen or fourteen and a half in favor of the Steelers Dolphins,

by the way, proving me right. It's been the case with the Dolphins every week, with the exception of one game a couple of weeks ago. Every week I have to tell him in guessing lines, I make a line for what I believe it should be versus what I know now. The market will probably make it. And in this particular case, I said, this should be a pick um to me Miami at the Giants. But knowing what I know about the market and how it treats the Dolphins, I'll say it's the Giants two and a half or three.

And Chrissie comes back and he told and he tells me, guess what, it's three and a half in some spots, and it's three and a half everywhere. Why did the Giants get a hook in this? Are you kidding me? Auto play the Dolphins with Ryan Fitzpatrick. We've said it a thousand times. They're not horrible when Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starting quarterback. What have the Giants done? By the way, Eli was good for a half last week Monday Night

against the Eagles and then nothing after that. But the Giants shouldn't be three and a hook against I don't know, maybe anybody give me the Dolphins, rinse and repeat second verse, same as the first Dolphins plus the three and a half, Thank you very much. By the way, they should have won out right against the Jets last week. Dolphins, my first best been so todd and I broken records. But it keeps working for us. By the way, did I mention I was three and oh finally last week with

a teaser that actually won. I don't know if I mentioned that, Brady your number two. Hey, I gotta mention real quick here on the Dolphins, I actually guess the same number as you. That week with the Steelers, I I guess seven and a half as well. That was the line I made, unbelieve, and this week I make Yeah, And this week I make the line Giants minus one. So I agree with you. I I do have a play on the Dolphins. My best bet though, I am going with the Denver Broncos getting nine or nine and

a half and it was Atlanta. Yeah, didn't you want my second second one? Oh? He's calling it second best. I didn't understand. Sorry, Todd, is this your first podcast with us? No? I didn't hear him say second best bet? My fault. Sorry, Brady, I apologize. Well, you did ask me for my second correct host Gilt, Yes I did, Yes, I did. Todd doesn't listen. He just thinks about the next thing he's going to say. I am going with the Denver Broncos getting nine or nine and a half

of Kansas City and uh, the last two. The last time these two teams met, the Chiefs one in Denver thirty to six. And I believe that that, plus the way Kansas City comes into this game, has inflated the point spread. The Chiefs have won three games in a row, they hammer of the Raiders and they one at Foxborough, which is a very big deal. And in that game,

the general betting public was all over Kansas City. So I think it's possible that the books have bumped this up a little bit because they know that the masses are in love with Kansas City again. Now the Broncos, they have won two in a row, they've covered three out of their last four. I like the rushing attack of Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsay and they will be facing the twenty eight ranked rushing defense in the league. And I gotta tell you, guys, I like Drew Lock

what I've seen out of this guy. I think he has really looked sharp and he's made some very big boy NFL throws in his two games. Um, the Chiefs past defense is solid, but if Denver can establish success on the ground, I think Locks should be able to make a few throws. Now, obviously this is also a

division game, uh, Denver. You know, if you go back and look through the alls of point spread history, they haven't been catching this uh, this many points against the Chiefs in this series in over forty years, and they've never been a double digit underdog to Kansas City. Uh, it's very difficult to sweep the season series against the division opponent. So the Broncos, of course, they're looking to avenge that loss they took to Kansas City earlier this

season at home. Mind you, Um, I made this number seven and it opened up ten and a half and there were even some elevens. And let's also remember the Chiefs have lost three out of their last four home games, so maybe there's too much home field advantage being built into this line here as well. I don't know, but I just think it's too many points to give the Broncos. Nine and a half is what you get. The Broncos at Broncos thirty one points in the first half last week.

They hadn't had a game with twenty five all year thirty one in the first half. Drew Lock twenty two of twenty seven for three oh nine three touchdowns pick He was sacked once. Kansas City did clinch their fourth straight a f C West title, nine plus wins now in all seven seasons under Andy Reid for the Chiefs. Brady on the Broncos and Todd you started off wishing to have Wednesday grievances by saying, maybe we owe Vic

Fangio and apology. Huh. Yes. I was shocked that Mr vic Flaccio Fangio was actually getting his team in order after burning all my money early in the season, and he's been much better. I mean, you know, they almost had Minnesota beat on the road and then they thrashed uh Houston on the road. Now, Drew Lock, by the way, he in college, he reminded me of Jeff George, an amazing talent at arm not exactly a talent at head, So I'll have to, you know, be proven wrong before

I get too excited about Drew lock. But I have to agree with with Brady's pick because you know that can't be defense aimed special anyways, not exactly a talented head. Mike number two. I agree with you, Gil, Uh, this is actually best bet, but I had to give the Jets first because of the chronology of the show. Dolphins plus three and a half. I've actually taken them plus one sixty five on the money line here. Uh, let's

be honest. You know, if Todd Wish Division two Basketball never was was covering Darius Slayton Monday Night instead of Ronald Darby. I think the Giants come away with six points max in that game. All Right, we are all in love with the ELI storyline, and maybe that affects this point spread. The Dolphins are a better team than the Giants. They're better coach, they have a better quarterback, and they've been outside of one game, they've been at

worst a mediocre NFL team the last seven weeks. I'll take three and a half all day. Is that gonna be three and a half? In circle? You think you think they're gonna Shade. Well, I don't know. It doesn't seem to be coming off this number, so I don't think we want to try to avoid the flat threes because of all the pushes. So I think they'll stay with three and a half. Yeah, that's gonna I think that's gonna be the number one pick. That would be

I guess I have Mikey down. Is Miami plus four? Yes? Yes, my death for whatever number you want to concoct, Todd, what's your number two? Man? Well, I was gonna go Miami too. I'm getting a little nervous that everybody likes Miami so much, so I'll give you my my third pick before my second pick, which was gonna be Miami. Um wait wait, so is Miami your second pick? No, I'm deciding whether I want to make it my third pick now, and I have another ten minutes to decide.

So calm down. I won't take the Bears. I'll be sure to relax. Yes, Chicago Bears, you've heard of this. You're Chicago Bears with Mitchell Trabisky at the quarterback position plus the four. Now I know people are staying to themselves right now, Are you crazy? Mitchell Trabisky are you out of your mind. Uh maybe maybe I am out

of my mind, but that's probably for other reasons. The Mitchell Tropis Ski has sort of and I don't want to go too crazy here, but has sort of gone back to the road of last year a little bit, using his legs a little more somehow, actually doing something good offensively every once in a while, and not making too many mistakes. The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, have not shown me anything special for five weeks. They got blown out in San Diego or l A or

wherever those games are played. They got blown out over there. They played a couple of other teams. That one team that they beat the big deal. So they beat the Giants, Give me a break that that doesn't impress me at all. And there are other win was against Clem Haskins where they barely were able to squeak out a win in that one. So give me a break. What's wrong with the Green Bay Packers don't look like a healthy you know juggernaut. Oh they got blown out against San Francisco.

They barely beat Caroline in a in a in a in a winter storm. I mean agreement to Packers don't impress me. It's a division game, as Brady has said, and he is right on. It's a division game. That's another reason. And I'm getting four points in an NFL football game if Mitchell Robinski doesn't blow up as he is so wont to do. Often times, I think somehow

I squeak out to win plus four. Aaron Jones last week sixteen carries one thirty four to touchdown six catches for fifty eight against Dwayne Haskins Jr. And the Redskins. Todd refuses to call him Dayne Haskins. He calls him Clem Haskins, former Washington Bullet, former Golden Gophers head coach in the basketball arena um and Matt Lafleur first Packers coach ever to win ten plus games in the first season. Not Vince Lombardi, not Bart Star, not Forest greg not

Mike McCarthy. Matt Lafleur formerly on the staffs four teen game schedule, Right, that is correct in the case of the Lombardies in the Forest Gregg's and the bart Stars of the world. Yes, that would be true. That is a very good point, young Todd. My number two pick would be, you know, it's a low total in that Green Bay game. It's uh, it's fourty and a half. But there's one game that's lower than that. In fact, it's the lowest total in any NFL game this season,

Buffalo in Pittsburgh Sunday Night Football. And I'm not playing the total. I'm playing the Buffalo Bills catching one and a half. Buffalo Bills catching one and a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is more of a fate of the Steelers than it is a backing of the Bills. Quite frankly, I like the Bills. Um. They did allow a season high six sacks to the Ravens last week, when they had only allowed four in the previous four games.

But this is about Pittsburgh to me. Pittsburgh, who give Mike Tomlin all the credit in the world, started one and four. They've won seven of eight since. By the way, we just talked about Matt lafloor Stad eight plus wins in all thirteen seasons under Mike Tomlin. That's impressive, dude, Like, I don't I don't think people think of Mike Tomlin that way. Yes, he's had big bend the whole way, and he's had stars like Levian Bell, and Antonio Brown. This is his best job ever. Eight wins already for

the Steelers, they're eight and five now. But here's the deal. They have won two of their last three games on basically one big James Washington play, and both of them were kind of flukey in both of those games. And then last week against the Cardinals they went in large part because Deante Johnson returns a punt to the house. By the way, he was good uh as a pass catcher two six or sixty from Duck Hodges for a touchdown.

I think this Buffalo Bills defense if they can't stop Duck Hodges and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have really no reliable don't. Here's the deal. The Steelers are getting James Conner and ju Ju back, so Duck will have them at his disposal. However, Duck was what sixteen of nineteen last week in the game against the Cardinals, the Bills defense rears its head. The totals thirty six. This is

gonna be a fun defensive struggle to watch. But give me the Bills at Pittsburgh on Sunday night catching the one and a half. The Bills and Steelers both in playoff position, in right now, but the Steelers right now teetering there in the number six spot. So uh, the proverbial must win situation, not really it must win, but big game for both ball clubs. Buffalo chasing the Patriots still in the a f C East. Just one back there,

Buffalo pick number two US. The injurs don't like you picking against the Pittsburgh Stolers because we got a great coach and we got a quarterback from that quarterback machine Sandford Dot Hodges. That's where all your great quarterbacks come from, Sandford. Don't you know anything, gil Go Stollers As a Steelers fan, how do you feel about that game? I'm worried. Okay, that's all I needed. Brady pick number three the Monday Night Er. I like the Indianapolis Colts getting nine points

at New Orleans against the Saints. The natural reaction here, guys might be to think that the Saints will bounce back after that tough loss to San Francisco last week. But I actually think that loss was so tough on the Saints, you know, to have lost that back and forth shootout game in the final seconds, I think it was more than tough. I think that was brutal, and to ask them to get back up off the mat and lay nearly double digits under the right Monday night lights,

I think that is a very tall task. And look at this trend here. New Orleans is seven and seventeen against the spread as a home favorite coming off of a home loss. Okay, and they are oh and seven against the spread when laying more than a touchdown in that same scenario. So that speaks exactly to what I'm

saying here. When you suffer a heartbreaking loss at home, I think it's even tougher to come back at home again and have to rise above and beyond the occasion, in other words, to have to cover a very large spread. I think it would be better for the Saints that that loss had been suffered on the road, or if they were getting out on the road this week. I think that would be more likely of a bounce back

spot then. But this having all gone down in their own building, I think it's tough for them to get back up for this game. Now. Both teams run and defend the ball very well. Um, the Saints are clearly the better passing offense, but defending the past is the strength of the Colts defense, Uh, Indianapolis. They blew that game last week in Tampa Bay. But I think getting the national spotlight will be something that will be a boost for them. I think they'll be fired up for

this game. And let's remember the last time we saw the Colts on prime time they upset the Chiefs, winning outright as eleven point dogs and guys. That was off of a loss too. I made this line seven. It's now nine. I think it might close at seven or seven and a half. I am seeing some eight and a half now. The Super Contest I know, came out with eight for their static line. I think the Colts at eight and a half are better. Is a good play. I made it eight and a half. It is nine.

Nine is the number you will get, sir, h You'll get the Colts plus nine here. Uh, Saints coming off that forty to forty six heartbreaker for them. They've scored thirty plus points in eight different games this season. That's the most in the NFL. They had four hundred sixty

five total yards of offense and defeat. But they couldn't double cover George Kittle apparently, um that was their big mistake, and Kittle in one of the big plays of the NFL season while his face mask was getting tugged at all the way downfield converts a fourth and two and puts the Niners in field goal position, and the Niners

end up kicking the game winner and win it. Robbie Gould, Niners, you'll get the full nine there, young Brady for the Colts, who are now two games out behind both the Titans and the Texans in the a f C South. Six and seven are the Colts, Mikey number three. All right, let me give you a couple of pieces of information here please uh it's circuit numbers are out, okay, Dolphins are getting three and a half. Love it, thank you,

you love it. Also, the Colts are getting eight and a half, not eight it like the west Gate and the Bears Todd are getting four and a half in the concast. So you'll like that. Thank you for that. On the spot up my final best bet and I bet this plus one and a half. Sunday, it's gone the other way. I'm gonna play against the Cowboys and take the Los Angeles Rayams laying one and a half. I think this. You know, none of these games mean anything for Dallas if you look at this race, because

they're they're they're four no in conference. They just have to beat Philadelphia and Washington the last two weeks, which I'm not convinced they're gonna do. But uh, this team is totally quit. That effort on Thursday night in Chicago was amongst the worst I've seen. The tackling. They know this coach is a lane duck. He's gone. Jerry won't make the change till after the season, and he will

because they're not going anywhere. If they do make the playoffs, they're gonna get beat by Seattle or San Francisco in the first round. Hosting a game, I just I'm very impressed at the bounce. If you looked at that game, you know, we all, we all kicked dirt on mcvain and the Rams after Baltimore winning there and scored touchdowns

their first seven drives. But they really bounced back nicely, really shutting down Kyler Murray and Arizona giving them no breath at all in that game and then that and really controlling Russell Wilson. I think their d line has really played well. They put a lot of pressure on Will since Seattle really wasn't able to run the ball as they had been so so well against the Eagles and and against Minnesota on Monday night. I think you're getting the better team in the better mental spot. They

have to continue to win to have a shot. And hey, look, the Vikings are going on the road to play the Chargers, and we know Kirk Cousins struggles on the road. So Rams still alive for a playoff spot. I think they win this game, and they win it rather convincingly. Yeah, Rams are one game behind those Vikings for the NFC's sixth playoff position. You're right about the Cowboys. I had him against the Bears. Not an official pick, but I

played them. And you know, Aaron Shots was on a numbers game at Easton on the show this week, began analytics guy obviously from Football Outsiders, and he was like, yeah, all the numbers point to the Cowboys and all of these games, but they just don't get it done. And they were awful that night. Rams, and they win against the Seahawks on Sunday night. Fo total yards of offense?

What do you make of a Todd Girley thing? Though? Mike, Like, do you think we've ever gotten a real explanation on this, Like all of a sudden, now girls back in everything that he always was. What happened, Well, I don't know. Mcvais says, you know, I messed it up. I didn't use girly, I didn't establish girly, and then golf comes on. We're a different tame when we run girly. First. Well, I mean I thought he was injured, that's why they weren't trying to feature five times the game. But apparently

he's been healthy all along. The weirdest thing, one of the one of the least like, it's just not explained. I don't think we ever got an explanation on it. Todd number three. I just like to give a little shout out to people who use what I call the gohou Losh model because that the Dallas Cowboys. I believe people keep saying that Dallas Cowboys have the number one yards per play in the NFL. Is that correct? Yes?

For the season? That is correct? Yeah? Okay, So so folks, if you're just doing a numbers model with no googlesh of watching games and and putting in a little eye test, you're not going to be right. You better mix in some google losh and it cannot be just numbers based. I love the numbers. I'm not against the modeling, but you cannot be only numbers based and modeling. This is a perfect example. The Patriots have been a perfect example over the years. Do not look good at analytics wise,

but cover spread after spread after spread. The Cowboys are the opposite. They look great on the analytics, but of course they cannot cover a damn game. Have you ever eaten a goolash for real? Yes, I've had googlosh. I believe googlesh is like a stew right. I believe. I was gonna ask you what exactly what does one find in a goulash? Well, you've got some analytics numbers and a googlesh, and then you've also got some watching games and a googlash. You mix it all up with some

tomato sauce. You got yourself a still. I thought it was a Russian prison. Oh yeah, it could be that too. My third pick love I love Gorky Park. That's the difference between having Mike Palm on the show and and just a mere mortal Mike can go with anything. Well, I'm just I'm just making a point that art and science have to be mix together in sports betting because it's not purely a numbers game, even though the show is called a numbers game. Thank you. Um Now, I

would like to make my third pick. I unfortunately like the Miami Dolphins too, which means we're all going down in a a in a heap. Uh yeah, it's going to be a horrible mess. But I have to take the Dolphins. I mean we've gone ad nauseum over this. It's a different team with Mr Fitzpatrick. I love the coach doing the little fancy trick play to get the touchdown the other day. You know, we've talked enough about this. Just give me Miami plus three and a half against

the most floundering of floundering organizations. Then New York g Men, and hopefully I can get a w Yeah. Pat Shermer on his last couple of weeks, here's a Giant's coach, Matt Rule from Baylor, rumored to UH to have that job if he wants it in New York. I hate my third pick. Can I just preface it by saying I hate my third pick, but yet it has to be my pick. I have a season long thing that I do off the grids sort of like a stock thing.

If people have listened to this show long enough, they know my secret off the grid stock market thing that I'm involved in with football teams, and I'm I'm a big seller of the Oakland Raiders. However, I have to play Oakland here giving six and a half against Jacksonville. This is the final game at the Oakland Alameda County Colisseum. You've heard that before. We have We heard that before

last year. That's right, we have heard it before. But this, for real is the last game at the Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. Because if you've driven on the freeway here in Las Vegas, you see that that stadium will absolutely be ready. But the reason that I'm playing the Raiders here is because it's it's south of seven points, it's just six and a half, and it's against Jacksonville. And as bad as the Raiders have played, the Jacksonville Jaguars

have five straight losses by seventeen plus points. Five straight losses by seventeen plus points. That ties the longest streak in franchise history. Of that nine plus losses, by the way for the Jaguars franchise for the eighth time in nine seasons. Think about that they have that one year where they almost beat the Patriots in the playoffs. Every other year they suck ass and they're really sucking now. And it doesn't matter that it's Gardner Minshew. So Jacksonville

is just playing awful football. And although it goes against my every instinct and other things that I'm involved in, And although Oakland has been outscored themselves one s thirty three the last three weeks, each by twenty plus points, by the way in those games outscored twenty one nothing in the second half against the Titans at home last week, they gave up five fifty to total yards of the Titans. I'll give the six and a half here and I'll

take a big swallow. And uh, I don't know. I have competing interests here financially, but Oakland is by the number, my number three pick here in week fifteen. As always, guys, support for today's show comes from bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a musk because their first post odds take the highest limits and pride themselves on never having kicked out

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slash gill. To join and claim your welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now, you will not regret it betting the only way I know how, the indispensable Bookmaker dot eu. Teaser time, Boys, I'm playing through teaser victory last week, Brady, what's your two teams six point teaser the week? I like taking the Bills. You obviously have a best bet on the Bills. I like taking them up to eight or eight and a half with the UH Redskins up to ten and a half.

I actually have the Bills teased with the Rams, one of Mike Palm's best bets, but that was before the Rams moved to the favorite. And I don't like teasing through the zero. So I'm gonna pair the Bills with Washington. I made the Bills a one point favorite at Pittsburgh and I make the Redskins a three point dog at home to Philly. So you're getting through some key numbers on both of these and I'm getting a touchdown more than what I made my line. So I like it.

That's my teaser Bills and Skins bill seven and a half for a bookkeeping purposes. For young Brady, they're getting six. And what about Washington? What number we're giving him in Washington? Give him even maybe a ten, because I mean it depends on where you look. I don't know if there's any four and a half's left out there that there are. Some of these numbers have just changed this morning. Yeah, Penny's still got a four and a half and been

online does, but mostly fours everywhere. So ten for young problem, I'll take seven and a half and ten. That's just fine. I'm with Brady with the Bills. I think they're actually gonna win that game. Hey, they defended Lamar Jackson as well as anybody has all year. We've sin they're actually their defense is actually better on the road we've seen

them be very, very good on the road. I know that the Duck Hodges is in there because he's not gonna ask Tomins said, he's not going to kill us, right, He's not going to make the big mistakes and and throw the interceptions. He's going to manage the game. But I think this plays right into the Bill's hands. I like Allan's ability to run the ball when he needs to, So we'll take that up to seven and a half. And then I'm torn on this. I'm really horn on this.

The other one here, Uh you're by the way, you're mimicking exactly my thoughts. Bills are absolutely one leg. And then it's like a it's a it's a choice on number two. I think I gotta take a take. Uh well, boy, I don't know I'm gonna be. I'm gonna be with Brady's pick and I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the uh the Broncos up the fifteen and a half. I know it's not the you know, it's not the Stanford Long model, but I think that Derek, they could keep

this game with it too. They've played awfully well. I mean, look at the bad beats they've had and the games they blew, and I mean, this could have been a playoff team when we when we all said, oh, how right, we all said how awful Bangio was and they had no quarterback and their defense was a fraud and all of that. So I'll take Bill's Broncos, Bills Broncos, So

Bill's Redskins followed by Bill's Broncos. Todd, I'm taking Bills too, and um the other one, I'm gonna go with the Dolphins because I just don't see Giants beating anybody by more than nine and a half points. I know, again it's probably not the best, umatically, but I'll just take the Dolphins the nine and a half and Buffalo plus the seven and a half. Well, it makes perfect sense for me to take Bills Dolphins too, because after all, those were my two, uh my first two best bets.

So it is Bills Dolphins for me. I will tell you that the other ones I was considering to pair with the Bills. One of them was Tonight's New York Jets catching twenty three Like that was that was in a consideration because, for God's sakes, it's twenty three for no other reason, Uh, then that's just a mess of points. But for my for me, officially, it's the Bills and the Dolphins of Todd. We end up landing on the exact same teaser. So I can't pick up any ground

on you there this week. But that's what I will go with some guys to give my ten point teaser because I've been hitting these three team ten point teasers. Lease, you don't have them ready until Sunday morning, but I'm considering New England just to win the game, Buffalo plus eleven and a half and Lands just to win the game for people who are interested in the ten point users, not the Jets plus twenty seven. No, I'm just worried they might lose. Uh, you know, I understand. It's a

definitely consideration. You know. I want to tip my hat to Todd for actually letting the public know something he's gonna play right other than the Tampa Bay over everything else is in this supposition, here's actually something to eat bets, So good for you. Well, you know what, that's really funny. That's funny that you say that, Mikey, because I've been putting up my in game picks every day on Twitter and bashing the hell out of college basketball. So there,

Mr Palmist. These people are given enough for their life to listen. Oh on the megapod, Paterson, don't be Paterson. Well, here's the if I could get an extra half point, it's not available anywhere in any market. Of course, I'd be betting all these NFL games as well like you. But um, yeah, the NFL, the NFL pregames are very difficult, and I say you better be careful and play it in game because they're just dangerous. We all know that. I mean, I don't think I'm saying anything that's out

of line, am I. Gil. The correct word is pre flop. That was what you were most out of line about, Todd, correct word? Alright, Final two questions, boys, Final two questions, And no, Todd, you weren't out of line. Final two questions. I have been playing Tampa Bay over so, Mike. You know, I know you ran out of the picture. But I have been playing Tampa Bay over so go to hell, Mike. Derrick. Derrick came in. He thought, Derek thought I read it might be in trouble. He heard all the screaming and

he didn't know what was going on. So I I love when we have actual casino moguls reacting to the screaming on our podcast. Um Alright, final two questions, boys, These have been the final two questions for years they remain so. First one, which of the big favorites do you believe is the most likely to lose? Out right? Here are your candidates, Kamala Harris, no kidding. Baltimore minus seventeen against the Jets Thursday night. That's the biggest spread

on the board. Kansas City nine and a half point favorites against division rivals the Denver Broncos Um New England nine and a half point favorites on the road against Cincinnata. Should I put the two? Well, San Francisco ten and a half point favorites or eleven eleven? It is at home against Atlanta. God, these are big numbers. And then there's New Orleans nine point favorites. All call it eight and a half nine it's nine nine point favorites at

home against Indianapolis. I guess I don't have to include these, uh, six and six and a half. So those are all double digits, which is the most likely of all of those who lose. Outright, There's a nine and a half in there too, But which of those, Brady, Well, you know, these are two of my bets, the Broncos and the Colts, and I really think they both have opponents that come into these games with tough situations, and I think both

could be beaten out right. I think one of the two will hit, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both did. Broncos and Colts, both of them. For me, Wow, wouldn't be surprised if both the Chiefs and the Saints went down. Yeah, those are both a tick below double digits. Mike, same question. Yeah, I gotta land on the Broncos here. Um,

they've played much better tough spot, Chiefs, Chez. If we had told ourselves and like, if we go back to our week four selves and tell us we'll be saying these things about the Broncos, we would laugh at our at ourselves today. But yet that's where we are with the Broncos. Todd. I like Brady's Atlanta story. Atlanta went into New Orleans and won that shocker. They still have a lot of talent. They are Gilly Ice, I mean, Maddie Ice, a team with no mental fortitude. But you

never know. Once in a while, you know they could, they could win one. I wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta UH beat San Francisco. I happen to have a Colts season under eight games winning ticket, and I'm very nervous about the Colts beating New Orleans as well as I think Brady's onto something there as well. It makes me very nervous. I think it's the Colts. I think I think it's the Saints. I think that's the one for me, because all the others, like Baltimore is not losing to

the Jets. Listen, I get it about Denver, it's division rivals, but it's still Drew Lock. And in Kansas City is just there's too much offense there for the Broncos. In my humble opinion, New England is not going to lose to the Bengals. They're just not, whether they're on the road or not. And then San Francisco to me, is too good. I think it's the Colts. I think that's the one sort of sneaky team. It's a very by low,

as we like to say on the Colts. They haven't looked that good, but they squandered that fourteen point lead at Tampa Bay. UH they've got it in them. And I think, uh, you know a lot of these teams in the NFC, which we've alluded to, the Packers being one of them at ten and three, I think some of these records are a little more gaudy than is actually reflected in the skill set. So for me, it would be New Orleans most likely the big favorites to

lose outright. That's a Monday night game and then the final questions. We live in a bizarro world. No buys their sixteen games. You're forced to bet aside Brady on every single one of these, but you're allowed one free pass on the side. What's the game you want? No part of the Vikings at the Chargers. My friend I made. I made Minnesota three point favorite, and I know it's two and a half now, um, but I don't know

which team is gonna show up for either side. I really like the Vikings against Seattle two weeks ago, and their defense was awful in that game. Um, I think Minnesota is the better team here. But we saw the Chargers explode last week. Like Todd mentioned, we saw them completely dominate Green Day. I could easily see Los Angeles winning this game. I could easily see the Vikings just rolling this team. I have no idea what's gonna happen.

I'm not getting involved. Yeah, we should almost name this question. We should be sponsored by the Chargers. It's almost like it's almost like they're the short list of possible answers every week. Mikey, I'm gonna go with the fighting Kitchens against the fighting Kingsbury's. I don't know what to make it. Cleveland we the week. I don't know if the Cardinals are we might have overvalued them a little bit because of their run in the middle. No interested betting, no

interested in watching it. That is my answer to if I may step in Cleveland, Arizona, I have no clue. Kyler Murray scares me just enough, and Freddy Kitchens is a buffoon. Dodd Dallas and the Rams. I don't know what's going on with this Dallas team. Are they the analytic Darling? Are they the garbage team we've seen the last couple of weeks. The Rams played really well the last couple of weeks, but prior to that they were horrible. I don't know about this these teams, so you know,

I don't want any part of it. I'm sure I'll bet it in game. Alright, boys, we've done all we can do. What is the distance in our overall records? How far behind you guys? Am? I? Well, here you go. You've got coming in. You've got Gil at eighteen twenty three and one with a three and eleven teasers mark, mikey eighteen and three in the lead with a five eight and one teaser mark, and me at ninth teen twenty two and one with a five and nine teaser marks.

So we're quite far behind Mr Michael with not many weeks left, girls, so we have to make it up. Well, no we're not. We're only like I'm the distance between Mike and me is what three and a half games in the whole thing on the lost column? But but but three and a half overall? Yeah, he went lost column on me? And what again? What are your teaser numbers? Again? The teasers are five eight and one from Mike, five

and nine for me and three and eleven for you. God, our teasers have been horrible, like the one thing that is usually just the easiest. What a year for Stanford while and teasers? All right, that's still very much in contention to three weeks left in the regular season and then the playoffs. Can't wait for that. Brady, Thank you. Brady Cannon staple on the megapod year after year, always the leadoff guy and the twenty eleven Las Vegas Hilton

Super Contest winner with Santacy. Thank you as always Brady appreciated man. By the way, how many people were thank you? Uh? Five hundred and seven and team It was kind of the first year todd of of like a decent amount of people. Uh, it's really kind of when the the Contest really started to gain some popularity. Prior to that, it was in the three hundreds and stuff. We got

up to five hundred and seventeen. And it was right after that Contest victory that we had that Jake Cornegie and I put our heads together and started Super Contest Weekend and that's been running for like eight years now or whatever, and the Contest has just grown exponentially ever since. I think the next year it went to about seven fifty and then it was eleven hundred and bang, here we are at what what is it this year? Thirty or something like that. Wow, do you miss the panels

for Super Contest Weekend? Brady, do you wish we had those bas I do, yeah. I I think Decon should be uh more involved, like largely more involved. I think, you know, they should be there like around the clock with program amming it, you know, the Saturday of Super Contest weekend. And again, I'm sure I'll get with Jake Hornegie here pretty soon and start talking about our plans for next year. The Saturdays is good. You have the golf tournament and then all the giveaways and the raffles

and all that stuff. That's fun, but the Friday has started to die down, and I really enjoy the get together in the camaraderie and seeing all these people that I typically only see once a year that weekend around the bar there at the Westgate and whatnot. But there needs to be more. There needs to be a draw, and that draw used to be the panel. Uh it doesn't necessarily have to be a panel, but I think Visa it needs to get involved in this discussion and we need to throw, uh, you know, an event in

that Friday that makes it more attractive. We always talk about you winning the Westgates Super Contest or the or the Hilton Supercontess at the time Brady, and that obviously I bury the headline. You are a visa host as well. People should know you host the Green Zone on Sirius XM channel two oh four. Uh. And you do so six pm Pacific, nine pm Eastern. What days are you on, Brady? I will be on there tonight. My week starts tonight.

I am Thursday and Friday at six pm. Saturday and Sundays I do midday around two pm, and these are Pacific times, and then I wrap around and come back on Monday at six pm. So I'm off on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Excuse me Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Forgive me for having buried that headline. And of course for all your golf needs in Las Vegas. For you and your buddies are your bachelor parties. Brady's your guy at Tea Times USA. How about that, Brady, We got that in there too. Yeah.

When I'm not, you know, babbling on visa and I'm booking Tea Times. I try to hold down a couple of jobs these days, babbling and booking Brady, That's what we call him. Thank you, Brady, appreciate it. Man, Mikey Todd, thank you. Thank you guys talking with all you guys. Thank you guys for holding off the bickering to the forty five minute mark but then really getting into it. I appreciate that that's the hallmark this show this year.

Thank you, gentlemen. I was thinking that, you know, Brady said he wants to make Fridays bigger at the weekend. Maybe they could do a segment like an hour and a half where Mike explains how to change the TV channel as an active content manager at the bar at the d So that would be very interesting. Here we go. I'm not gonna vote for Pocahontas. You're not going to vote for the wild tax. And on that note, thank

you Orange, Mike Palm, thank you Orange Pom. Good luck with all your Week fifteen pets in the NFL.