Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 14 Preview

all on camera here, everybody but our guest today. You seem to be eating well. Everyone else is at lunch, but due to John Murray's schedule, we had to do this later, so I'm not able to go to lunch. There we go already welcoming the guests. Pretty sure, Mike, you missing launch wouldn't be the end of the world. Oho, And so it begins and finished fourth in the non casino employed We go Here we go using Twitter polls against each other. Mike is very serious about these Twitter polls.

Not He's very seriously. First of all, you can just anything. I make jokes about your weight, you could say same to you, fat so because I'm a fat so too. Yeah, I know you are, but I would never stoop to that level because there's a lot of pastors where it may not be your fault and you're trying to get more healthy. Wow. Wow, now that's that beautiful Catholicism coming together. I love it, John, John, aren't you glad you agreed to do this? This is all we do for an

entire forty five minutes every everyone. I'm very excited to come on and try to talk about the NFL with you guys. I apologize, Mike, I do. I overextended myself the last two days. I agreed to way too many interviews the last two days. I'm pretty sure the people that work here think I'm not doing anything and my office door is closed all day, just doing interview after interview. They probably think I'm just sitting back here watching TV.

He's very popular, John Murray, that's what But that's what you do, John, I mean, they can't be made what you do. Know. I know it's a big part of the job now, you know that, Mike, and make part of the job now is promoting the different books and different media and it's a lot of fun. It's a lot more fun than going to another meeting, I'll tell you that much. For those who don't know, that's the

voice of John Murray. He is the executive director of Racing Sports at the Westgate the Super Book here in Las Vegas under Jake Cornegey's stewardship. John Murray, executive director of Racing Sports. So we're thrilled to have you John, first time ever on the megapod. And so here's how this works. Usually before we get into games, we get a contest update from Mike, but since you're here, we get to get a contest update, perhaps if you know it off hand from you first at the West Gate.

Do you know what the leading record is in the Super Contest Classic or Gold right now? By any chance, John, I wish you would ask me that I could have had the guys pull the numbers for me, and I don't know what it is. I can look it up, and I can look it up very quickly, all right, if you want to look it up, you can. Otherwise in the meantime, we'll get an update from Mike Palm the Circus Sport Million. It was the first day of our final quarterly or your final quarterly there at circa.

By the way, I didn't start well. I started two and three. Todd had you dark and three? Two and three? Also, Mike, how many five? Oh? Is the first week of the quarterly? Only fifty only fifty one? Wow? That's still pretty damn good. Geez. And who is in the lead now for the whole deal? The booty Blockers maintains the lead. He's got forty six and a half points. He's got a two point lead over two other entries, and then a three point lead over an additional two entries. So there's five five entries

within two points of the lead. Right now, booty blockers, I wonder what booty Blocker's means? What does that even mean? The name is Isaac. His first name is Isaac, so maybe he's part of your group God. But he's coming in today actually to collect, to collect from quarter three, I'd like to meet him from California. So he won quarter three as well, that's right, Yeah, he split quarter three and he's leading for the million. His Hebrew name is First of all, I'm not part of any group

as part of a religion. I've renounced studios many times. I will renounce on air right now again. I am part of no group except the human race, and that is John will never do this show again. John, do you have an update for us with the Westgate Super Contest? Do I do? Gil lead? The leader is still that Tuco now Tucos alias is based off Tuco Salamanca. If you remember the bad guy from the season of Breaking Bad, he checked in a forty four twenty and one one.

There's two people behind him at forty three one and one Crisper and Chicago Jeff right behind Tuco. So and then there's a whole group at forty three forty two and a half. You guys know, there's a long way to go here down the stretch in the NFL, so very still still very much up for grounds, no doubt about that. That's a super contest classic. I can get you the gold as well here, John, I got a I got a tech from Randy McKay said he was tied for the lead and the goal. Oh wow, Okay,

do you know his alias offhand? Mike? No, I don't. Okay, let me see if I can get you the gold standings. Right here, there's two people at thirty nine twenty five and one Mike and one guy's contestant Workman w W two and the other guy is Walter Payton. So I'm not sure which one of those are, Mr McKay. But there's two guys at thirty nine five and one, and then there's two more people at thirty eight five and two, so they're about to have They're a half point behind

those two. So the Gold obviously a bottleneck as well. Sweetness tied for the lead, but the Classic is one point four two million. I got to look up a gold bought on Okay, all right, we don't need to know that one point four two million for Classic circle million is for a million obviously, the quarter prize of hundred forty three thousand in that as well, and gold

is whatever. Gold is also low six figures on that, all right, before we get into any best bets, and maybe this is one of your best bets, I don't know, But any thoughts on the Thursday night game at all Dallas favored by three at Chicago tonight, John, any thoughts on this game tonight? We're just overloaded here with nothing but Cowboys money. I don't have an opinion on this game myself. I thought the Bears were very lucky to escape the Lions last last week on Thanksgiving, but you know,

Dallas looked awful night game against Buffalo. I guess, if anything, this would be a good time to buy in on Dallas after such a bad performance last week. We're gonna need the Bears here, Mike. I would imagine most books in town are going to be in that same predicament, Mike, what about years well? Uh, gil Um. I think to John's last point that if you if you'd have had to look aheadline like they do at Westgate, Um, this game probably would have been four and a half or

five before Dallas looks so awful on Thanksgiving. I think it's a pretty cheap price on the Cowboys. I personally laid three with the Cowboys, but it's not one of my three best bets here. The strange things with the cow Boys is that you know they can lose tonight, they can lose next Sunday to the Rams, and then still win the division by beating Philadelphia and walking in the close of the year. It's just in that seast. I know, John, you and gilbeat Redskins fans can speak

out and that that division is this year. Three games back to speak to your point, Mike, we were at minus three and a half on the look ahead line, the early line, so maybe there is a little bit of value here at minus three. Yeah, the Redskins are still in the thick of the playoff RaSE. We just did a Bears win tonight, gil and a Giants win Monday night. Green Bay is a thirteen point dog that we might be right back in this thing, hey man. Double digit dog last week took care of the Panthers,

not only took care of her, dominated him. Um. By the way, Dallas six and six before we get your thoughts tied, Dallas is six and six. The opponents they've beaten, they're six wins. The opponents they've beaten a combined sixteen fifty and one. The opponents they've lost to forty nine and nineteen. That is splits make Splitsville right there. For Dallas, they are a bully and then they get crushed by good teams. Where the Chicago fall we shall see, Todd

any thoughts tonight. First of all, I want to ask you if you can Usually I write down all the picks, and I don't have a pen here in the car, so I was wondering if you could write down the picks for us today so we can track of them. Anything else you need me to do? Man, Yeah, well it's not wasn't something I volunteered to do in the first place. Well, this is a change. Jusie Todd asked the listeners to do his work. This time he's asking the call host. I'll do it, Todd. I'll write him

down there you go, thank you. I will take the arrows from Mike Palm with pride and no prejudice. Okay, Um, As far as tonight's game, how the hell can you make a call? You've got true bisky, it's a joke. You've got the Cowboys coaching as a joke. You just have to watch Michael probably play the under in the first half. And it probably is not a bad idea. I mean it's Cowboys. Listen. If they have this talent, shouldn't they beat a team like Chicago with Mr Biscuite quarterback?

Because and the Bears defense is not anything vaunted. They let David Blow go up and down the field on them. So like, if the Cowboys can't get it done, remember the Redskins got Ron Rivera fired. I'm talking to you, Pat Shermer week sixteen. Jason Garrett Week seventeen, you better watch out, Skins are coming. Let's begin with the best bets. John Murray from the West Gate. We start with you. What's your first best bet, sir? I think this week the one the one player I really do like actually

is the Indianapolis Colts. You know, I think this is an overreaction line here. You can get the Colts plus three on the road in Tampa. The Buccaneers have really struggled at home this year. Colts are coming off of what looks like a bad loss to the Titans, but they're really in control of that game until the end there. I don't think much of the Bucks, although I do find watching Jamis Winston to be a lot of fun.

I'm gonna lean to the cold tier. I'm gonna assume Jamis Winston is gonna make some egregious mistakes and give this game away. You're with Chris Andrews. Chris Andrews said this is a by low situation on the Indianapolis Colts. You are echoing that as well. Tampa Bay three point favorites. The Bucks, who are five and seven, Colts are six and six. They're two out in the uh A f C South two behind the Texans, one behind the Titans.

Mike best bet number one. I really like Baltimore lane five and a half at Buffalo is that the lion cod Are you look? Are you able to look at lines now that you're in a car? I actually actually I got six. I got six six and and and and for tradition, we should really always, you know, bump Mike half a point because he always tries to. Here's the irony. Mike hates it when people give the wrong lines, but meanwhile every week he tries to get a half

a point on us. It's I only hate it when Hoops Peterson gives the line that's dead points off exactly the West Gate and circuit of both and half five and a half. I can't be able to get five and a half. We got five and a a half right here at the West kid. Yeah, Gil is always the final r. I'm just looking at consensus off shore and at six off shore. So sorry, sorry Las Vegas, but we're gonna go with the six just to be consistent. Yeah, John,

and I hold a gaming license. We can't be held at at off Sorry, I don't know what you're talking about when you're talking about off shore books, guys, I'm only looking at the prominent Vegas sports book. That's all I look at. All Right, Well, we give him the five and a half of the six, Gil, you're the final harbiter. Six damn it six. Sorry, here's the thing, off shore, do they have Jesus or the other guy

making the lines? Because I know it's circle they do, and I believe I thought I saw a picture of that there Jesus hugging o J. Simpson on Twitter? Was that for real? Are you talking about Lindiman and Metcalf? Oh? Wow, Lindiman won't return my d M. What's the deal with that? Dale hug o J. Come on? That was a set up about they couldn't believe he didn't have any plays and then they said, yeah he couldn't take a stab at it. That was just a whole set up. I

was very reference market. Yeah, there are people too young to understand that reference listening to this podcast right now. Alright, So six six I don't like. I don't like six as much as I like five and a half. But here here's the thing. I think this is a bad matchup for Buffalo. I just don't see how they're gonna stop the power running game of the Ravens. Now we saw and I've been critical of Alan the ability. I always say he could beat them more with his legs

and his arms. He had a very good game in Dallas, but that was playing in the Dome and perfect circumstances. Now we have to go back to Buffalo, where they're always winding, no matter what season of the year. And I actually think that the Baltimore Ravens are more built to play in bolts to play in Buffalo than Buffalo is.

I thought that game with the forty nine was just terrific, and the fact that they did not play a great game and still want it right, they were still able to grindnd out enough first down and use Tucker and win a game against a very good team and a very meaningful game. Buffalo high off. This probably the biggest win they've had one sixteen years, but maybe longer for this branch. I like I like, I like Baltimore to keep it rolling and the win this game by a touchdown.

Baltimore with their win over San Francisco, a game that they perhaps could have lost, if not should have, but the best starting franchise history. Now at ten and two. Justin Tucker with his thirty eight straight field goal made in the fourth quarter, that is just absolutely sick. What a weapon he is for them and they want it with two three totally yards. By the way, I talked about the Dallas splits, Buffalo is nine and three opponents.

They've beaten a combined twenty seven and sixty six though at least give them credit that they probably not probably, but they did have something to do with the fact that Tennessee seven and five, that one of those losses is from Buffalo, and Dallas six and six one of those is from Buffalo as well, So at least they have a couple good wins on their resume. Todd your first, well with my first, I'm gonna go back with my

tried and true. Everybody's heard me on a Numbers game and on this podcast, and granted I get tons of things wrong, but I have not been wrong this year when targeting a certain team for the over, and that's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Week after week, I've been pounding the table. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over is the greatest bets since sliced bread. They play absolutely zero defense, they're very explosive on offense, and there's always the chance that Jamis

might throw some picks that go the other direction. So they're just the the the overlover's dream. Last week, if you if you remember, I decided not to take the over with them, and it was the first time they did not go over because they were playing the Jaguars and I was scared that the Jaguars might not score, which is exactly what happened. So I've really had a good beat on Tampa Bay all year. I don't understand why people are betting it under give me over, Gil,

what's the consensus? Seven over forty seven in the Indianapolis Colts Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, and we will cash again. Yeah, Jamis last week, no touchdowns, no picks like that was a unjamed like game and that's why it stayed under right eleven. Or it was because Jacksonville wasn't going to score to help them. Did their usual but Jacksonville, I thought might not help them, and that's why I laid off Tampa Bay Colts over for Todd over forty seven.

My first best bet. I'm gonna do like Todd does. I pretty much go to him every week. Todd's had a little more success than I have, though, But I'm going with the Miami Dolphins. Todd saying it. Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins no longer number thirty one. John is never doing the show again. I just repeated one more time. Uh, Miami is now plus five and a half. Consensus. It was six, it's now plus five and a half. This is more of just to play against the Jets.

Why are the Jets five and a half point favorites in this game when I was guessing it on Monday. When I do Dolphins games now on guessing lines, every time I have to give, it's the one team that I have to give what I think it should be and what I think it will be. And with the Dolphins, I think it should be four. I would imagine it was five and a half. It was six at the time, Now it is five and a half. Dolphins are ten and two in one possession game since the started last season.

They won three of five outright since going oh and seven. They outscored the Eagles twenty three to three after trailing by fourteen and the third quarter. Last week, they scored on six of their final seven drives. The fact is that Ryan Fitzpatrick makes them a decent, you know, slightly below average football team, but they're not horrific. They're not a joke with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and he seems to have this chemistry with DeVante Parker and the Jets

returned to be in the Jets last week. You're giving me five and a half points, I'll take the Dolphins. That's my best bet. Number one, John pick number two. I'm gonna give you guys the same pick we gave to Mr Brenton Musbrewer yesterday on My Guys in the Desert. Brent asks us to give him a pick each week for the Super Contest, and we gave him New England minus three at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. I think it's a good by low spot on New England.

They looked awful on and then I had Actually that two final against Houston was misleading. They really got beat worse than that. But I think they'll bounce back at home here against Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. So we gave Brent New England minus three. It's my favorite play this week. How's that going with you and Brent, is he upset with you for bad picks or he's happy with you with good picks. Well, you know, he he was upset with us because we gave him a

loser going against New England. This is several weeks ago. And then we gave him Baltimore against New England. I'm sure you guys remember that Sunday night game or Baltimore just trucked the Patriots and Brent actually ignored the pick, but he apologized to me on air for that one. I'm pretty sure our records pretty good. There was a little bit of a scandal a few weeks ago where we tried to give him the Jets against the Raiders. I wasn't thinking, I you know, it was my fault.

I wasn't. That was our favorite play that week, was Jets plus three at home against the Raiders, but I wasn't thinking. Of course, Mr Mustger can't use the Raiders game, so he kind of laughed at me on that one. But we gave him. We gave him San Francisco plus six last Sunday, which I thought was a good one, and we're giving him New England minus three this week. The Jets did win that game against the Raiders thirty four to three. He does realize that in retrospect, right,

Oh yeah, he does. But it was really my fault, Gill. I he I know, I know he can't play the Raider games. I just wasn't thinking clearly that afternoon, and I think we ended up giving him. We ended up giving him another play that lost in in uh In in place of the Jets. So disappointing week, but I think overall we've given him some more winners than losers. Let's say that John, who I am told while doing market Watch, actually drinks Bookmaker blonde while on the set.

Is that true as well? Oh? Absolutely, that's a fact. Yeah, No, I had a Bookmaker blonde on set with Jeff Paul's was that last Monday, Mike. We were all down there and then the camera kept catching me going to commercial drinking a beer. I'm like, you, guys, put a beer in front of me. I'm gonna drink a beer. What do you? What do you people want from me? Why

was it catching you? We drank on my guys, We openly drank and toasted seas He's after after I wanted to be one of the guys man, Well, you knew it was. You knew that, and there it was wasn't gonna last along with humans at ten o'clock. So actually Mai at the time, so it was it was kind of a free for all on set. Oh that's right, Mikey. What's pick number two? Uh? What is the total guil on the Vikings Lions? Gig? I like how you asked me and that you refuse asked hod Now it's forty

three flat. I asked you because I don't need a speech. I'm gonna go over three. You know. The only thing, the only thing that uh, the only thing that I think we learned about either of these teams uh in their last games on Thanksgiving and then on Monday night, is that Patricia is just never gonna bring any pressure. He's just gonna let the quarterback sit there. He could defend in that second if you let Cousins sit there

back at home, look at Cousins numbers at home. I mean, the guy is lethal in that dome at home, and I'm not interested in laying almost two touchdowns. But I think this game will we'll we'll go back and gave blow actually played better than if he's if it's Blow actually played better than that Travisky on Sunco on Thursday. And you know, the Vikings can put up points at home. If you look at their splits, they scored thirty two a game at home. So I think this number came

back a little low over forty over forty three. By the way, Matt Stafford still wanted to play this year. They haven't ruled him out completely, and I don't see any reason why they would play him. But David Blow is the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions this weekend. Uh in their game against the Minnesota Vikings. Totals forty three. By the way, the spread on that is twelve and a half thirteen somewhere in that pocket. But Mike, he's

going over forty three. Dad, what's number two? Well, Dad, you gotta get the good number. It's all about getting a good number anyways. Uh. Now that's the guy in the sports book Love who always tells me about certain ethnicities will always write number and other ethnicities just want to bet right before the game. They're not as smart

as the other ethnicities will get the right number. Well, since since you've already said that, why don't you just tell everybody what that what he said exactly well, because I don't want to get any ethnicities mad at me, so I'm not going to I'm not at you. I'm not going to say which ethnicities he said are the smart ones and get the right number. But anyways, I will take the New Orleans Saints over the San Francisco forty Niners. What's the line there, Gil, are we looking

at two two and a half? What are we looking at? That's a pretty even split between two and two and a half. I'll go ahead and help myself to a two a little more two and a half. Let's say two and a half. Dome fine, I'll take the two and a half New Orleans minus two and a half against the San Francisco forty Niners. Here's why Jimmy g scared the Bejesus out of me. Obviously, the Niners are very good. They're obviously arguably in the top three to

five teams in the league. Um they're you know, well coached, although Shannon and sometimes makes some questionable decisions, like late in the yes Seattle game with he could have taken and could cost him major playoff seating. But that being said, Obviously, the Niners are very good team. The thing is they scare me with too many turnovers. Jimmy g fumbles the balls too much, throws a couple too many picks, throws a couple too many tip balls because his receivers are

not that great. And in a big game. I think this is gonna come back to haunt them in a very tough place to play. That dome will go absolutely crazy. Uh for this game. This is a gigantic game. Obviously, I only have to win by three. Give me Drew Brees and the Boys to beat the Niners by three, which covers the two and a half. Give me the New Orleans Saints. Balls of you going against the Niners. I am gonna go with the Tennessee Titans as my second pick. Tennessee. Now, is it was one and halfen

now it's two and a half? Is it three reduced use or two and a half? Consensus? Do you st Dodd Tennessee? Yeah? I think it's two and a half as well. Tennessee minus two and a half from me? Uh consensus? Uh? Look, I was dead wrong about the Raiders, as so many people were early in the season. I thought that schedule was gonna murder them. I thought they'd be one in six after seven games, and said they were.

They had a winning record after seven games. Um. But now it's kind of coming home to roost for them. And I think as much as they overachieved early, I think we're about to see an underachieving Oakland Raiders team down the stretch. Derek Carr not good again last week against the Chiefs. UM in Tennessee. Here someone said something about the Raiders, and I can't remember who said this, so forgive me that I'm not attributing it to the

right person. Um, but someone said something interesting about the Raiders and all the rookies playing well, which is in the NBA we always talk about these college players who come and play NBA ball and the schedule so long, we're like, oh, they're hitting the rookie wall. Raiders have a lot of rookie contributors, maybe hitting the rookie wall in some cases, I don't know. I mean, looks like Crosby and Josh Jacobs and Waller are still playing well, but I don't know. Maybe that could be part of

it too. I just think Tennessee is real good football team. No one is ever going to talk about Marcus Mariota again. Remember that dude, Ryan Tannehill. Eight touchdowns, no picks, six by the way through the air, two on the ground in terms of touchdowns no picks during the Titans three game winning streak. He's efficient, he makes good decisions. He's five and one as the starting quarterback for the Titans

this season. Derrick Henry is getting it done. Twenty six carries a hundred forty nine yards last week in victory against the Colts. Uh, you're giving me less than a You're you're making me lay less than a field goal. Tennessee in a big game for both teams. Tennessee one back in the a f C South. They're tied with Pittsburgh right now for the sixth and final playoff spot in the a f C, and Oakland right now is

in a proverbial must win situation. And when people say they're in a must win situation, as my friend Bob Stole says, they must not be very good. Then I'll take Tennessee. I'll give two and a half. That's pick number two. John Murray third and final pick, well, you just you just t me up because my third and final play is the Oakland race. There you go. Both are we saw our most respected NFL group. They came in here, they hit us. They took Oakland plus three.

I know what you're saying. It looks like the Raiders have kind of hit the wall here, But I think this is a good spot to get behind them. After two straight blow our losses to the Jets, to the Chiefs, I think the Raiders find a way to win this game. I think Tennessee last week it was a little misleading, you know. I don't know why the Colts kept trotting out Adam Vinetarry to miss those field goals and then obviously that blocked field goal return for a touchdown really

cost Indianapolis that game. But I'm gonna go with the Raiders here at home. I think they're gonna get this win over the Titans and get back into the fringe of the playoff race, so to speak. Alright, Raiders plus two and a half. Officially for John Mikey final pick, Gil I don't want to give a contradictory pick here. Yeah, I just don't want to both of both of my last for the two games I was gonna use, I'd be going against somebody here and I don't want to

do it. I'm gonna take a my good show prep. Alright, Todd, you're in a car and you're not writing down the don't tell don't tell me, Okay, don't tell me. I only said that, folks, because Mike busts my balls mercilessly and says that I don't do enough show prep. Meanwhile, I volunteer to do all that stuff. So just let's set. You gotta always be prepared for these shows. Man, you have a legitimate point that you're not getting paid on a numbers game, Todd. But how about self pride and

just representing yourself better? Okay? I do. I do what's called charity work to try to help the others in the world. I think gil is doing a lot of that too, all right. Think it never misses a shot, never misses enough. You can't you can't miss your shot, all right. I'm gonna take a stand on a game that's it's it's an all time philosophical argument, gil M. What happens when a team that has quit meets Anthony Lynn And I'm gonna hold my nose and late three

points with the Los Angeles Chargers. Okay, now, Here's why any team that could not term Jameis Winston over is totally done that for many, many reasons, for many If you watched that game, Tampa Bay moved up and down the field for the first two and a half quarters at will, as did Tennessee in the second half of that game the previous week. Every time you look up its second and thirteen. With this Jaguars, they're not even competitive within sets of downs, within possessions. Anthony Lynn, yes,

he finds ways to lose. Accept if he's up two scores. I don't think he can do that. I'm gonna I'm gonna go against what we believe about Anthony Lennon lay three points on the road last week. Let's say the Charger season. First of all, the Charger season, as we said on Guessing Lines earlier this week on the podcast and on the Numbers game. Fourth loss this season. Chargers loss to the Broncos last week, fourth loss this season

by three points or fewer. That's the most in the NFL, and every one of their eight losses is by seven points or fewer. And then lost in that Jacksonville anemic performance against the Bucks in which Nick Foles was benched for Gardener Minshew sixteen penalties for a hundred and twenty five yards. So to your point about second and thirteen, every time you looked up, that's why, because they're going the other way. You know, my dad, my dad, when

he used to watch football with me. He's not from this country, but whenever the Skins would have two consecutive plays where they would have negative yardage, my dad, as if he'd never said it before, would go, Jesus Christ, they're going the wrong way. So that's what the Jaguars are at this point. But basically my dad shouting at the TV. Oh, Todd, I'm sorry, Todd, I forgot you're there, Todd. You're in a car. What you got, Todd? My final

pick is going to be the Oakland Raiders. I'm owing with the same pick as John Murray is going with. And here's why. In the SFL we have these games I'm going on, Dr Alexander. But the NFL, every week we have these games where nothing makes sense. If you remember the Steeler Colt game earlier in the year, everybody loved the Colts, and of course, somehow, some way and found a way for the Steelers to cover the game. Uh, there's always a couple every week that look ridiculous. There's

not gonna be anybody betting the Raiders this week. After two absolute atrocious performances, getting handled easily by the Jets and easily by the Chiefs. No one's gonna want to burn their hard earned money on the Oakland Raiders. And that's exactly why I want them. They're gonna circle the wagons. Knock on wood if you're with me, folks, knock on wood, men with the Raiders. The Oakland Raiders to lose this ball game twenty to nineteen and stay inside two and

a half points. Give me the Raiders plus two and a half. The right guessing lines I liked, uh five different games. One of them has remained neutral on the line, one has has gone maybe a half point against me. But the first three that I had, the market has all come my way. Miami, I had it was plus six, it's now five and a half. Tennessee, it was one and a half, it's now two and a half. And the third one for me is the San Francisco forty niners. I'm appo you. I match your oppo me Todd with

an appo you How about that. We're double. We have two opos double apo um. I like the night you're writing down. I hope you're writing these picks down. You're you're in charge of that this week. Mike is not me. Remember we went through this already. Mike is writing him down. Okay, alright, uh, San Francisco. Even in defeat last week against the Ravens, I thought that was a very solid performance from them, And in clement weather against Lamar Jackson, they could have

just as easily won that football game. I do think in a very top heavy NFC, they're still the best football team. Saints are already in the playoffs. Saints are playing for seating right now. And I don't think Drew Brees is very good right now. I really don't, you know, with that whole Rams Saints know horrific refereeing decision last year in the playoffs, we kind of forgot that Drew Brees wasn't really great anymore the second half of last season.

I don't think he's that good this year either. And I think you're right, Garoppolo is the one, perhaps the one flaw of this Niners team. They found something with Raheem Mostert nineteen carries a hundred forty six yards against the Ravens. I think the Niners are the most balanced team in the NFC. I think you're giving me three points on the road against the Saints. I will happily take the Niners in this spot. I don't think much

of the Saints. I think they're They're a paper tiger in the same way that a lot of these NFC teams are with the big records, like the Packers, for instance. Give me the three, I'll take the Niners. That's my final pick of the week. So those are the best bets. Support for today's Beating the Book podcast comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot eu. I have been saying it all season long. I will continue to say it. The Bookmaker dot eu as an industry later for close

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get to the final two questions. Teaser of the week to team six point Teaser of the week, John, what do you like my teaser of the week. I'm gonna piggyback off your last play there, Gil. I'm gonna go with the forty Niners. I'll tease them up to plus eight and a half. I'm gonna pair that with the Arizona Cardinals. I think it's a good week to get behind the Cardinals. They looked awful last week. Get the Rams Pittsburgh down to their third string quarterback. They gotta

go out on the road, Arizona. I know, Mike Tomlin is doing a great job this year, but I like Arizona in that spot, so I'll go San Francisco plus eight and a half to Arizona plus eight and a half six point teaser, al Right, eight and a half, eight and a half San Francisco Arizona, Mike, Yeah, I want to clarify. So you're getting plus two and a

half with the forty niners, not three. That's correct. In other words, I guess three on It was three on Monday, and the market came to me, Yes, two and a half, okay, forty niners for John eight and a half Cardinals, Okay, very good. I'm gonna take uh and tease the Texans down. What's number you see there, Todd or gil on the Texas against the bron Uncles nine, even more nine than nine,

and al, I'm gonna tease him down to three. Against the Broncos, I thought they I know they could be a JACKO and high team, but I thought they looked awfully good against New England on Sunday night. Um, this Broncos team still has their own issues offensively, and after they got up fourteen to three, the Chargers controlled that

game for the most part. Through the last three quarters. UM. I actually took four and a half with the Broncos and then was in a spot where I needed the Chargers to win that game by a field goal because I bet the Chargers in game money line when they were down fourteen and three. But uh Dom Domblin couldn't tackle the receivers with nine seconds to go in the game, so we got a bad call and we couldn't get the middle. I just think the Texans I cannot foresee

them losing this game at home. They're playing themselves into a position to have a shot at a buy in the a f C and win this division. And then the other game is that I'm going to agree with John and with Gil here. I like the forty Niners getting more than a touchdown up to eight and a half, alright, Niners, Texans From Mikey Todd, I am gonna go with the Arizona Cardinals up to eight and a half. UM if Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh obviously has won seven games this year with smoking mirrors.

Mike Tomlin, who I consider a good coach, not a great coach. This is the one thing he's great at doing, and that is smoking mirroring his way with defense and everybody on deck somehow pull out games that they shouldn't really be winning. I don't see them blowing out Arizona on the road. I don't see them blowing out anyone. In fact, all their wins have been tight wins, except for that Cincinnati travesty earlier in the year on Monday Night.

Even the Dolphins games should have been close had that idiot not blitzed on third and twenty too late in the first half. So I don't see the Steelers winning by more than eight and a half. So give me Arizona plus eight and a half, and then for the second part of it, give me the Oakland Arraidas plus eight and a half as well. I will go Stanford wonging this week with two eight and a half the Raiders and the Zonas. You know me, Stanford wonging me

into oblivion. I'm going San Francisco in Kansas City. I'll take got nine against the Patriots, thank you very much. In that one. Uh, Patriots have had trouble with multidimensional quarterbacks. I think Patrick Mahomes will give the Patriots defense problems with all their weapons, and I don't think it's any stretch to think that New England's offense is still gonna have difficulty. I know Kansas City's defense is terrible, but

you're giving me nine points to work with here. I would not be surprised if Kansas City wins this game, out right, I really would not be. I think they're in the weeds in the a f C. Everybody's kind of forgotten about them, and there's really no pressure on them. I like Kansas City getting nine in a tease with San Francisco. Final two questions, gentlemen, which of the big favorites, in your opinion is the most likely to lose? Outright?

Will define them by six points or more? Green Bay twelve and a half or thirteen points favorites against the Redskins Viking, same exact thing somewhere in that twelve and a half or thirteen point pocket at home against the Lions. Cleveland seven and a half point favorites at home against Cincinnata, Houston nine point favorites at home against Denver Um. We'll skip that one because I'll make it too easy. And then Philadelphia nine and a half point favorites. What about

BALTI what about Baltimore? Six. That's the one I skipped because it would be too easy. Philadelphia nine and a half point favorites at home against the Giants, uh so, Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Houston, and the Eagles. Which of those is the most likely in your opinion, John to lose outright? Well, it's kind of a cop out answer because they're the shortest favorite. But I actually like the

Bengals anyway, so I have to say Cleveland here. Bengals is the last team I left out of my three best bets because that line has come down from nine nine and a half down to seven and a half. Cincinnati actually looks like a professional football team with Andy Dalton playing quarterback. And anytime you can say that Freddie Kitchens has a chance to lose, you're probably right. Freddie Kitchens is a buffoon. He's done a terrible job with

an extremely talented roster in Cleveland, totally dysfunctional team. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bengals won this game one and done for Kitchens, you think, I think it has to be. I think if you're the Cleveland Brown, you're wasting a roster that has jam packed with talent on a guy who has no business being an NFL head coach. Yeah, I can't disagree, and I don't think it's a cop out. By the way, I still think that's a pretty bold upset if it happens. Mike,

same question. I agree with John and I think what we're because of the buffoonery of Kitchens, were overlooking the fact that Baker Mayfield is just not this good either. They get they go out, and they get back up, and that they have no explosive that the only times they moved the ball against the Steelers in that game were drives where they diked and they dunked and they ran.

They cannot stretch the field at all. Dalton very motivated right now, closing in on two touchdown passes for his career, and I think he's a better quarterback right now than Baker Mayfield. Cincinnati Bagels, I'm gonna go with your Philadelphia Eagles. This football team has been atrocious. I mean, losing a two touchdown lead at Miami the week before. They had no business even being in the game against Seattle there. I mean, obviously they're better than the Giants, but I

mean the Giants are horrible too. Maybe Eli Manning, who was one hundred and sixteen and one hundred and sixteen as a starting quarterback for his career, could go out on a winning record to beat the Birds in Philadelphia. Look, it's probably unlikely, but nothing would shock me with how how bad the Eagles have been the last couple of weeks. And I can't add much to that because I think Cincinnati, I think Cleveland is probably the right answer, but Philadelphia

is a close second. I would not be surprised to see that. If the Giants won that game out right, it would not shock me. The Cowboys are trying to give the division to the Eagles, and the Eagles refused to take it from the Eagles five and seven, getting some of their players back, but uh clearly not helping yet as they squandered fourteen point lead against the Dolphins last week. Final question, then, John, we live in a

bizarro world. You're forced to bet aside on each and every one of the sixteen NFL games this week starting tonight, but you're allowed one free pass. What's the game you want no part of whatsoever? On the side bet over the the Miami game, Miami against the New York Jets. I don't know why Miami keeps winning. They're better off losing. I don't know what the hell the New York Jets think. They ripped off three runs in the world. They scored thirty or four points a game, then they lose to

the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday. I think Adam Gaze talk about one and done the Browns thing to move on from Kitchens. The Jets need to move on from Adam Gays before he ruins Sam Donald, their young quarterback. I can't pick a side in that game because I think Miami is probably the right side, but they're better off losing, and I have no idea what the Jets are gonna do any given week. I'm staying the hell away from

that game. Yeah, this may be the biggest. I mean, I wonder if we'll have more one and done this year than any other year in the history of the NFL. Mike same question, what's the one you want? No part of it. I don't want any part of the Panthers and Falcons. I'm not sure that. I don't know how

they're going to react to Rivera being let go. I'm not sure he was not u popular with that team and the Falcons played two games like Super Bowl champions, then reverted to their form in the first eight games. So I have no opinion on game, don't want to touch it. I will go with the Rams in Seattle. Who the hell are the Rams? Are they a good team? Are they a bad team? Are they an average team? Is their quarterback serviceable? Is he not serviceable? Is he

worth million? What the hell is going on with the Rams? I have no idea. I don't want any part of it, So I'm off Seattle Rams. And for me, it's Carolina Atlanta to Mike uh, if you told me Carolina won that game by seventeen at the end, or Atlanta did win by seventeen, I wouldn't be surprised either way. And for that reason, it's got to be that game. I have no clue what happens there. Atlanta favored by three.

I think that's the sort of default line of we have no idea what it's gonna be there, Atlanta Carolina. That would be the play for me. John Murray, executive director of Racing Sports at the Westgate super Book, Thank you, John, I hope it wasn't too painful for you, sir, oh I had a great time, guys. I appreciate you guys working around my schedule and hopefully we can all talk against Let's do it all right, John Murray, appreciate it. UM for Mike Palm at Circle, Thank you, Mikey Todd,

thank you pre ship it as always Todd. I think we're toasting the quarterly starting at two and three unless we go five and oh, and then we'll be really giddy about it and we'll think we're in it. All we have to do is go twenty and oh from here and we're in. That's that's all we have to do. Get utter. Thank you to both of you. Thank you to everybody for listening. Good luck with all your picks. Week fourteen in the National Boatball League