Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 11 Preview

all on video here except for our guest. And I just want to say that our our cohort is shirtless, and it is. It's disturbing, is what it is. It's Todd wishing of everybody. Hello Todd, why no shirt? You can only see my face? So why don't you just zip it already? Okay, that's not what we saw before and it wasn't pretty. I just want to say that. So this show, this show is under protest. Just want to point that out. And our rotating guests of the day. He is back on the show. Uh. He is producer

number one of the numbers game at Visa. But you know him as one of the staples of is it called Clear Data Sports? Still Michael, is that the is that the name still Clear Sports, Clear Data Sports. It's Michael Lamborn. Hello, Michael, good morning, Gail. Happy to be back, mikey, so good to hear from you. You've been okay, I've been doing well. Yeah. I have this minimize the screen so I don't have to look at Todd here, but

I'm listening. Then for sure, Todd is now eating one I don't even know the guy, and he takes up with the evil Gil and Mike Palm Cartel to try to take me down. Thanks Mike or Cartel's not like you've ever mistreated guests or anything, Todd, right, never, never at all. Uh. Let's let's begin with the clear People can't see the video, so it's it's not as funny Clear Data Sports. Uh is. By the way, Michael, I

should tell you, Michael Lamborn, Clear Data Sports. Part of the reason why Marco and Ace are not here anymore. I never told this story publicly, but one of the reasons that Marco and and those guys were upset with me is because they thought that I worked with you guys to try to poach one of their people from them, Ralph Michael's and I told them I go, you do realize I don't work for Clear Day Sports. Those are just my buddies. I would have actually told them to

stop trying to poach Ralph Michael's from you guys. Marco was like, oh, I guess well we'll strike that one. That's pretty juicy. I think you have an idea for a new podcast their deal. You can do like the backstory of the sports betting industry. I think that might be the best show of them all. All right, we always started the show with the Circus Sports Update. I was on drugs because of my roptrare achille, so I failed to even submit my Circus Sports picks last week. Mike,

what's the update? Who's in the lead? Well, you know, I guess I should have prepared a little better for this um, but I didn't have time to tell me the order of the show. Oh yeah, good preparation, Mike. It's like you've ready Wednesday morning. I know this. The leader is actually higher than the leader at the west Gate. I found because remember the west Gate that got guys started out twenty seven and three and was like two

and a half games ahead of our leader. That's thirty five and a half, right, Mike, Yeah, let's see here we got overall, we have thirty six and a half is the lead U M J. Tadeh thirty six and a half, and then we have four entries including CB Elite that won the first quarter at thirty four and a half. Two games back. Where are you talking? I'm at twenty seven and a half after my disaster. Oh in five weeks, I went three and two last week,

I'm a twenty seven, twenty two and one. All I gotta do here is have a complete sweep of the board and I'll probably win a whole thing and you can still get the money. Maybe steel in the third in the third quarter, one entry halfway through at nine and a half, and excuse me, six entries at nine and fifteen entries at eight and a half right now? So what no tens? In other words, no tens? You said, no perfect tens for the first two weeks. No perfect tens.

December contest a five week contest, Yes, that is correct. Alright, Let's begin with the Thursday night game. Boys Tonight, pretty good Thursday night game, a f C North clash between the Steelers and the Browns. The Browns are three point favorites, I guess three on guessing lines was two and a half at the time. It has come to me at three. Uh, Steelers defense out standing with Minka Fitzpatrick back there, I

turnover producing machine. Offense not so much, but Pittsburgh coming off their win against the Rams Cleveland beating Buffalo, outlasting Buffalo, staving them off for a ninet sixt win in that ballgame. Maka fitz Patrick on the season now. While he returned to fumble in this past game against the Rams forty three yards for touchdown, the second quarter also had a game ceiling pick. Six takeaways for Fitzpatrick five picks, one fumble recovery in seven games with the Steelers. Mike Lamboard,

we start with you. Anything on this game for you? Yeah, I actually like this game quite a big You know, you know a lot about our model. We built it three years ago, starting kind of with player grades from the bottom up and arriving at unit grades to assess the components of each team, and we put an overweighting. At the time, nobody was really talking about offensive and defensive line three or four years ago. Now it's a little bit more common in the media, but it's all

about skill positions. So we overweighted the offensive and defensive line, and this is kind of a banner game for that. Cleveland has some really popular guy as off quarterbacks skill positions. Pittsburgh has no name skill positions, but pretty high quality offensive and defensive line. So our model um predictably likes Pittsburgh in this spot. Favored by about a point, a little bit over a point, So that's gonna be a play for me. Gil, Pittsburgh Steelers, would you say that's

one of your best bets to Mike. I'm throwing it in there, Gil, I'm throwing it in there. Okay, Pittsburgh, Mike all over at Mike Lamboard, Mike palm any thing tonight. Yeah, Let's let's get a good show on here, Todd and have some disagreement early. I'm gonna give you a best bet. On the other side, I'm gonna lay the three with Cleveland. Pittsburgh's padded all these wins, all at home, and Prissette

doesn't get hurt. They lose to the Colts. Miami dominated them in the first half of the game before that inexplicable uh Let's eight that changed that whole game. McGoff incomplete pass is ruled a fumble that changed that game. Um, the Rudolph hasn't played a road game in weeks and and Hayden is Gempi. I like the Browns in this spot. I compared to them playing Buffalo. This is like the

same game all over again. To me, they're playing quarterback that won't beat you through the air against a decent defensive team. Cleveland dominated that game between the tens. I mean, they've got to improve in the Red zoner or they're they're in big trouble, but they still got a shot. Look at their schedule the rest of the way out. It starts with beating Pittsburgh tonight on a three with

the Browns. Yeah, let's not forget the Browns scored just three points in that game against the Bills despite twelve plays inside Buffal Those three yard line. Bills in fact stop the Browns on eight straight plays at the one, the equivalent of two goal line stands in the first quarter. So that game should have been much worse than the final score indicated. Todd, Is that the best bet for you, Mike?

By the way, Yes, it is. Wow, best bets on Thursday, Todd, This is not the best bet for me, but Unfortunately, I'm going to agree with the evil Mike Bomb, and I'm going to agree with him because my model shows that the Pittsburgh Steelers. I designed my model by sitting in a smokey room and watching every effing game possible to watch. And that's a different type of model that so far AI hasn't figured out. But I will say this, the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a huge win against

the Rams. Lucky lucky lucky. I mean, you're winning games without an offense. Basically, the defense is playing great. Don't get me wrong, the defense is playing great. The one good thing that the Browns have for them, I mean the the Steelers have going for them as Kitchens as the code to the Browns. Other than that, the Steelers are winning with smoke and mirrors and it was all

at home. Like Mike just said, Mason Rudolf has not been on the road yet except that forty Niners game where he looked like a you know, a deer in headlights. So I'd be very nervous taking a Pittsburgh team that I think has been very lucky and playing over their head. Cleveland. I don't want them either because of Kitchens. But I would have to lean with with Cleveland. I'm sorry to say, yeah,

I'm Mike Lambourne. I I apologize for the for the rude welcome or wasn't planning on this happening, but you know, I'm I'm on the Browns two and it is the best bet for me. I'm making it a best bet. You know that play in that game, in that Pittsburgh Rams game, to the fumble that was called on Jared Golf that Fitzpatrick. It was not a fumble. It was not a fumble, and it drives me crazy. By the way, I don't think the announcer has made enough of it.

It was second second quarter of that game. It was third and seven at the Rams forty one yard line left and a half. I believe the score was in the seven at the time, and that's when the whole game changed. I'm going Cleveland in this ballgame. I do get it that I'm putting a best bet on Freddie Kitchens, but damn it, call me crazy, I'm gonna do it. Freddie Kitchens and the Browns are my best bet number.

By the way, that was one of the most curious fumble calls that I've seen, because usually if there's even a hint of the hand moving forward, even a little teeny teeny weeny weeny hint of the hand going forward, they call it incomplete. And shockingly they didn't you know, you know, there were there were other similar plays in football that day that we're just like that, that we're

called the other way. But I think we've gotten to the point with NFL officiate and we've we've all talked about it until we're blew in the face all these calls, the layers of them, challenges and non challenges, and we've talked about that. I think the layer we haven't talked about is now we've gotten to the point that everything is so confusing that when you talk about these games

on Monday. So when I went into a number do a numbers game on Monday morning and I was outraged about that play producing number five Jeff Parlay, he said to me, he goes, I think you're wrong about it. I think it was a fumble because it was open hand. And I'm like, wait a minute. Now, you're so confused that the rules like they've they've get up so much that we don't even know what the rules are, Like

you think it was a fumble. I say, you could almost shoot someone in Fifth Avenue and maybe get away with maybe I lost my earphone. Excuse me? Alright, alright, Gil, it's a beat. Then, Pittsburgh Cleveland, Momo Fucho dinner dinner bet, not just the lunch menu. What's that now? Sing in it's a bet. Pittsburgh Cleveland. You and I Momo Fuco dinner bet, not just the lunch man dinner. You got it. I'm giving you three dinner bet. Me and Michael Lamber all right, let's do our first best bets then, Uh,

Michael's already got his Mike Landborn. That is, he is on Pittsburgh, Mike, Mike Palm and I both on Cleveland as our first best bet. Todd, what is your first best bet? My first best bet is then Jay Judge Judge Jet. That's right, your New York Sam Mono Jets. And here's why I like them. One word Haskins. Haskins is not ready to be a quarterback. Let's all be honest. If this was case Keenum, I don't want any part

of it. But because it's Clem Haskins, I know that's on his first name, but I called him clem Clem. Haskins is not ready to be a quarterback. So I am gonna go with the Jets. If it was Keenam, I'd laid off. But because it's Haskins, give me the Jets. I know the Jets stink. The Washington Redskins with Haskins stink worse. Give me the Jets. Yeah. I can't argue with it, and I I don't think it requires any more explanation. Jets held the Giants the twenty three yards rushing last week.

Twenty of those twenty three from Daniel Jones himself. Say, Kwan Barkley thirteen carries one yard. Take away the Redskins running game with Darius Guys and Adrian Peterson. And you put the game into Dwayne Haskins hands. Oh, Jets, Todd's first best bed, Oh Am, I getting bus one or one and a half on that. You are getting plus one and a half, sir, beautiful. That is the consensus. Mike Palm later saying that I'm trying to chance him

out of points. You know how he loves to do you know how he loves to do that routine with Michael Lamborn pick number two sore. So you know We've been dabbling with live betting in game wagers for a couple of years now, this is really the first year that we're going almost exclusively to in game wagering for

our plays. So we have the model to kind of guide what we're looking for ahead of time in these games based on the components of each team, and we kind of know that the pregame spreads are pretty tight. You can still find some edges, but I think in game is a really good opportunity. Now. There's just so many different time and state and game score situations that

can pop up. And just if you look at a few different books while you're watching the game and the differences that they have UM for that in game spread and total during different times of that game, it's kind of evidence that there is a pretty good edge to be had in this market. So, um, all of our members, all of our subscribers looking at pregame plays or sorry, in game plays right now. UM, And I've got my

eye on the Buffalo Miami game. This is one where if Buffalo takes the lead, our model says that that the teams are constructed two, we could see a slowdown in scoring in that situation if Buffalo takes a lead going up against that Miami passing offense, which we have graded at four team percent below average. Blow an average passing offense up against a good Buffalo pass defense. And then also Buffalo's ability to run the ball, perhaps run the ball, run some clock out against that Miami poor

run defense at fourteen percent below average. So I'll be looking at if Buffalo takes a lead in that game, and there's a couple of uppard uh different things that we look at in that situation. But if Buffalo takes a lead, uh maybe let's say seven to ten points, gonna look for the in game under in that situation. Okay, so a in game bet as a best But I don't know if we'll but wait, we we we Here's the thing. First of all, Mr Longboard is preaching to

the choir with lboard. We love what is it? It's landboard. Okay, I'm sorry. Mr Lamborn is preaching to the choir because we it sounds like you just took that right off a numbers game. We love the end game betting, We love it, and we agree with you a thousand percent on that, Mike Um. But here on on this megapod, Gil, we have to pick three games with no end game because it's prett you just want to take the under then in that game, Mike, I'll just go ahead and

do that. Yep. Okay, okay, that was an easy sell. Uh the under? H what do we have for the under? Their consensus time? What are you saying? The one that the under in the Buffalo Miami game? But understanding what Mike is saying, looking for one? Yes? Okay. By the way, I mean I could give you the three team ten point teaser too, but unfortunately we can't do this on this particular outlet, Mike, but I couldn't agree with it.

By the way, when he when he started and saying that stuff, Gil, I was like, Wow, this guy knows his crap. Todd is a stickler for the rules. Mike. I apologize for that. But but Mike, you're so you're so right about how the lines are different at different end game books and how the end game is just so much better. I never I almost never make a pre flu bet, and we're all about the live wagering,

Like Mike, palm your number two. I agree with Todd wishnev on the Jets play plus one, but I'm not going to copy that play Instead, I'm gonna take the under in that game. Thirty eight and a half is what I'm seeing, Todd. What what are you gonna give it to me at thirty six? Uh? Because you're a nice guy? Thirty six and a half? No, seriously, under

thirty eight and a half, Gill, Is that what you have, sir? Yes? Yeah, I'm gonna combine the fact of Haskins and his limited ability to perform in the National Football League or to have any part of the playbook, combined with Bill Callahan's desire to end up game and under two hours at thirty five minutes and and it's not porous Washington defense point against the inconsistent Sam Donald. I just don't think there'll be a lot of points. I agree with Todd.

I'd take anything if the Jets are getting points, and I will, but that's not the best bet. The best bet is the under here, all right, I'm going to uh Michael Lamborne's game, Uh, the game that he has the under in, and I'm just taking the Miami Dolphins. This is literally the only thing I get right every single week in the National Football League is just taking the Dolphins. I think the market is, you know, chronically underrating them, and I think they've done it here again

against the Bills. They're at home, the Dolphins are You're giving me six points, which is what the consensus is. I believe right now, Todd, do you tell me if I'm wrong? I believe six points is yeah. And again, why is Josh Allen favored by that many points on the road. I don't have an explanation for it. Last week, Uh no touchdown passes from Josh Allen again, one pick he was zack once he was twenty two or one for two six six, but he did his damage with

his leg six carries, twenty eight yards. I just don't think it's sustainable in the National Football League. Sure could the Bills win, absolutely, but giving six or getting six for the Dolphins, I'll take it in six points? Again, what is the justification for this? I guessed lower than I believe. I guess three and a half on guessing lines three and a half or four and a half, something like that. Give me value, I'll take it. Miami

Dolphins pick number two. Hey, Gil, they played before the score was a ten point win by Buffalo, but it was totally misleading because Miami was up four nine with the ball in the two yard line to go up nine, so I more fuel for the fodder. And that was on the road. Now you're going into that incredibly difficult home field advantage by Miami. No, I'm just kidding about that, but seriously, but seriously, that's just more fuel for the fodder for you. Here's who I would like to take.

I am going to go back to the well with the tried and true of every single week in the National Football League, and that I've been pounding the drum on Mega Pod. I impounding the drums on the numbers game. Mike is moving his head back and forth, bobbing it. But I will say this, the Tampa Bay Buccaneer over is the way to go, baby, because they go over every week. Why do they go over every week? Because they're not interested in defense. They have no interest in

playing defense. They also have explosive offense with Michael Evans catching every ball out of the sky. They also have the possibility for lots of volatility with Mr Jamis can fumble on every play, he can give you a pick six on every play. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an over lover's dream. The first two time these times these teams played in New Orleans, it was that equals fifty five, I believe. And now it's only at forty nine and

a half. Now, granted, I could get screwed here if New Orleans plays a great game on defense and somehow it goes under because they win thirty four to ten or something that could happen. But you know what prove to me? First, Tampa Bay goes over every week. You're getting it for what forty nine and a half or fifty? What do you have, gil, I have it at do do do do Do Do do do do fifty? Okay, so give it to me over fifty and I get there thirty four seventeen or some such score that adds

up to over fifty. Thank you. We could literally play back the me picking Miami. You taking a Tampa Bay over on a loop every week on this show, and why they both right? Why not? Why make it more difficult? Same thing? Jamis thirty forty eight last week, three fifty eight yards, one touchdown, two picks, sacked four times, but then you know he drove ninety two yards for the winning touchdown after Jamal Dean redeemed himself from a terrible

performance the previous week. He allowed several big plays during a the overtime lost the Seattle fort four uh ending Kyler Murray's rookie streak of two d eleven consecutive past attempts with a pick without a pick, I should say he picks it off and then Jamison the Bucks matriculate and beat the Cardinals seven, overcoming lead. And you're right about Mike Evans four of eighty two, just every week

getting the statue going. But Jamis Winston his interceptions in that game, thirteen turnovers now in the past four games for Jamis, So yeah, you'll get points. You'll get set up for points on the other side of the field every time with Jamis, that's for sure. But by the way, there was also a touchdown that should have been a touchdown there wasn't one. When Arizona was inside the ten

yard line and fourth and one. They threw it to a wide open tight end who could have just walked into the end zone and he dropped the ball, so it could have been even more points. Michael Lambor and pick number three. All right, you guys are not gonna like this one either, but I'm going back to another in game selection. I would rather UH win, have a good shot at winning than kind of go with the flow and UH stick with the conventional bets. That's just

me personally. But looking at Jacksonville, Indie in particular, if Jacksonville takes the lead, we've got their defense at nine percent advantage in that matchup going against the Indie passing off fence. Both run defenses should not do that well, so we could see a running clock in that matchup. But I'll be looking at an end game under for your rules. We can take the the overall game under, but I'll be looking for an end game under on

Jacksonville if if they take a lead. See, this is why Michael Lamborg got fired at Vicent because he refuses to do anything that anyone tells him to do. He refuses with him. By the way, we're agreeing with his theory. Yes, no, I'm just telling you. This is Michael Lamborne. This is vintage Michael Lamborn. Mikey, miss you the theory, Todd, But we can put into practice too well, Jacksonville, Andy, what's the under forty three and a half. That's what I say. Yeah,

forty three and a half. Let's see here. Oh, we can't trust you, Michael Lamborne. Uh yeah, I see uh forty three and a half. He's absolutely right everywhere, all right, Mike Palm, Well, I agree with Mike second pick, and I'll go to the game you chose as well. I like this game in Miami under we saw it in the first matchup in Orchard Park. Miami had the ability to run the football and had several long drives that they sustained by being able to control the line of scrimmage.

I just don't trust Alan with his arms not consistent enough. I mean, he can beat you with his legs, but I don't think he can beat you with his arm. I'll go I'll go under the forty one. Okay, we'll double up on that one. Um My final pick of the week, I'm going with the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs

in Mexico City giving three and a half. I'm taking the Chiefs giving three and a half at Mexico City against the charge charges on extra rest here charges coming off that horrific loss to the Raiders in which they were down two points. Final drive of the game had three time outs. All they had to do is matriculate deliberately. But nope, Philip Rivers just decided to throw wounded ducks every single down thinking that was the way to get

three points, and the Chargers lose another miserable game. This is why Philip Rivers, by the way, is one of the all time very good and will never be one of the all time grades though perhaps he's a Hall of famer. I don't know Chiefs last I'm just telling you, if you look at the stats, he may get in on stats alone. That's all I'm saying. I don't fit now. Is there anything with my eyes that tells me he's a Hall of Famer? No, but longevity. It's like a

baseballs like Craig Bisio. Should he be in the Hall of Fame? No, he played in five thousand years exactly. All right. Now, The reason why I'm going with the Chiefs here is there's nothing about that Chief's loss to the Titans last week that takes me off of the Chiefs. If you look at the box score of that game, and Todd and I talked a little bit about this on a numbers game today, they dominated that game, absolutely dominated it. Yes, they did not cover. They did not win,

but they were a position to cover that. They had the snaffoos of the end Ryan Tannehill by the way through a twenty three yard touchdown Adam Humphreys with twenty three seconds left, Joshua Kalou blocked a last second field goal attempt to be the Chiefs thirty five to thirty two. Titans only had a chance after a bad snap by the Chiefs on Harrison. But there's fifth field goal attempt of the day. Uh Kansas City coach Andy Reid blaming communication for the snap taking a holder Dustin co quit

by surprise. So there were two botches on field goals by the Chiefs in that game. But they just absolutely crushed in the box score. And I was saying historically speaking box score domination like the one we saw in that game. Literally, there's about two hundred sixty examples of that since the year. Teams have lost that kind of box score domination. There's different categories total yards, first down domination, there's a couple other categories once in two hundred sixty

previous such situations. So they should have won the game, period, whether they should have covered or not. Okay, coin flippy, but there's nothing about their performance in that game. That makes me down on them. I do think Andy Reid does some dumb hit like at the end of the first half he's running a play for no reason, risking a fumble like. I don't get why he does stuff like that. But all that said, I have no faith in Anthony Lynn. I think Andy Reid is the far

better coach in this game. And again we talked about if you only had one thing to handicap games on handicap the coaches. I'll take Casey giving three and a half at Mexico City pick number three, Todd. I don't like it because if you're up end late, you're gonna lose. I don't like you, so we're even how about that. Yeah, but here's the difference between me and you're not liking me and me not liking your pick one is you're gonna get a backdoor touchdown. If you don't like me,

you're not gonna get a backdoor touchdown. So it doesn't matter if I don't get a backdoor touchdown. Dinner on you at Momofuko. I don't know where that is and I did not agree to that, thank you. Um Now, my last pick is going to be the New England Patriots against the Philadelphia fly over the total of forty four and a half or forty five? What do you have for me? Go forty four and a half five? Okay, So I'm gonna go over in New England and the

Philadelphia Eagles. And here's why. Uh, New England made all these gaudy numbers on defense against teams that have no offense, so their numbers are better than their really true ability. And we saw that against the Ravens last week. They went up against the team could move the football, and all of a sudden, the New England Patriots defense looks a lot more pedestrian than it does when they're beating the likes of the Jets and the Dolphins and all

these garbage teams that they usually play against. So we haven't really seen New England against the team that can move the ball. And when we have seen it, New England was getting their butt spank. So I think the Philadelphia Eagles, led by Carson Wentz in their home stadium, will be able to move the football in New England. Conversely, the Philadelphia Eagles don't play the events. They're like Tampa Bay.

They're not interested in tackling and and New England will figure out a way to move the football with Bill Belichick against the Eagles ridiculous defense. And forty five is just way too low. Give me over forty five. Todd wish to have picked number three. All right, gentlemen, Now my favorite time of the show sport for today's Beating the Book podcast comes as always from our friends at

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teaser time. Um. Last week, for the first time, I went away from a Stanford Wong teaser and I probably shouldn't done that, and I lost. But while you can make fun of me for my horrific teaser record this year, one and nine on two teamers of six points, I don't even accept the blame because all I've done is Stanford Wong teasers. So blame Stanford Wong, don't blame me. That's my excuse. Uh. But let's start with Mike Lamboard. Do you have a two team or six point teaser here? Mike,

I do. I'm gonna throw Pittsburgh in there. I like them the with the best bet anyway, and then Jacksonville as well, both at three so we can get across three, four and seven. The model likes both of those teams anyway, so that was a pretty easy one for me. Yeah, we said on guessing lines that Pittsburgh would be the most popular teaser leg of the week. Todd what were you saying? So I'm giving him Pittsburgh plus nine, Jags plus nine. That is correct, Pittsburgh plus nine, Jags plus nine.

Michael Palm, I'm gonna take Todd's j e Ts, Jets, Jets, Jets up to seven and a half, and then like Mike, I'm gonna take a swing with big Dick Nick and go up to nine with Big Dish Nick Nick Foles getting the starting nod eligible to play after being on IR eligible play for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gardner Mins who ends up four and four straight up? By the way, Uh, my teaser is the Jets because again through the three and the seven, how the can that lose? Seriously? If that,

if that loses, then you know it's me. How about that? We'll just put it that way. Uh, And I am going to pair them with the Are you ready for this? I'm pairing them with the Philadelphia Eagles plus nine and a half plus nine and a half. Give me the Eagles at home against the Patriots. Do you want to talk about why you want the way you like that or you just want to let it go? I think if you're giving me the Eagles at home against the Patriots. I don't think the Patriots. Listen. I had Aaron Shots

on a numbers game this week and we talked. You were there, Todd, and we talked about the fact that the Patriots, by his numbers, are historically one of the six or seven greatest defenses through nine games since the year, which is as far back as he goes with his numbers. I asked him, is this schedule adjusted? He goes, yes, it is, because if it wasn't, the Eagles would the Patriots by far this year, would have the greatest defense ever through the first UH nine games. But as Todd,

as you and I discussed, they haven't played anybody. And I know it's schedule adjusted, and I know these are the numbers that he came up with with the d v O A and I love Aaron Shots, but these guys haven't played anybody. And if you don't think that, Carson Wentz and the Eagles don't smell blood. Now in the NFC East, with the Cowboys faltering by the way, Cowboys, we don't know if they're facing Matthew Stafford or not.

They're game against Detroit. You're giving me a nine and a half point cushion in this Super Bowl revenge game from a couple of years ago, Carson Wentz and the Eagles against an a Patriots offense that is not scaring anyone. I think the Eagles could win this game out right. That's how That's how strongly I feel about it. By the day, I'm sorry, Todd Serka did put a number up on the Cowboys game. What do you got the number? Yesterday afternoon we posted a Cowboys six. It's been bet

down to four and a half. Just just for those out there listening, is a point of interest. Yeah, that that is interesting. By the way, one of the other things we talked about with Aaron Shots is this notion Aaron Shots is doing this um study on trying to predict future interceptions and the team that came up as and how he does this is you know, I talked

about triple Crown. Those who listened to the Beating the Book podcast for many years in a numbers game and betting dork before Beating the Book know that when I talked about triple Crown races for all these years, that we didn't have a triple Crown winner in between Affirmed and American Pharaoh all those thirty plus years. I always used to bet on a horse will win the Triple Crown. It was great odds, and people thought it was crazy, and Alway said, there's so there's been so many near misses,

and it's just like home runs in baseball. The better predictor of home runs is a fly ball, right, not actual home runs hit. The better predictor of goals scored his shots on will not goal scored. Aaron has tried something now in football, passes defended a better predictor of future interceptions than interceptions themselves. And what he found that the Patriots are way off the charts in terms of them being able to pick off the ball thus far this year. That should tank. I don't see them picking

off Carson Wentz here in this game. That's another reason why I like the Eagles. Give me the nine and a half again, not picking them to win it, even though I can see it happening. But for the teaser, Jets, Eagles do give me the Jets. I've already discussed why I like the Jets versus Clem Haskins. So I will take the Jets plus seven and a half, and I'm gonna go with your Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans. Now do I get ten and a half? Or do I get ten? Gil, you get ten and a half? Wait, hold on, it

is dead even you can take the ten and a half. Okay. I especially like it if I get the ten and a half because then I get to go over the key number of ten as well. So give me the Jets and me the Texans plus ten and a half. This Texan game, it looks like to me a preview of a playoff game Ravens Texans. I love DeShawn Watson. It smells to me like a really tight ball game. I like going against a Ravens team that just you know, came two weeks ago, came off the big Patriot win.

I just like the Texans here. The Texas have a tendency to play close games. So give me the Jets plus the seven half the Texans plus the ten and a half. In the teaseration, what did you say that the spread was on the Dallas the Troy game, Mike, We opened at six yesterday afternoon. They bet it down to four and a half. That well, we don't know, we don't know. We posted it not knowing, but the assumption was it was Drisco right, Otherwise it wouldn't be

they wouldn't be favored by that much. But the fact that they're betting it down to four and a half means that people are hoping for Stafford in that game right there. Taking then they can get Stafford with with You know what, what would you say here, because it's interesting to me, Mike, what what? What was the philosophy there at Circle about posting that? Yeah, well, we do. We feel like we're giving away too many days of action when we wait till Saturday to post these games,

and we want we want to create the action. And the last time we did it was the vikings in the Chiefs And if Holmes doesn't play, we took all that action and went all the way from two and a half one way to five and a half the other, and we collected every beat. Want to keep writing. Yeah, look Jesus God, lend him in and that other guy. They know what they're doing. They have released their power rankings before the committee that we might have a different poll.

Right now, let me just repeat what Todd is referring to is an exchange on the Numbers Game yesterday where Todd tried to use his incredible brain power to use logic that he felt was better than everybody else's. He asked a question, what would the spread be of Alabama? Blade L s U. I believe that was the game? Georgia, Georgia George right? And Todd was expecting to get an answer like, oh, Georgia would be favored. Instead, he got

the answer. Instead, he got the answer then Alabama was favored by four by Matt Lindeman and Matt and uh Matt metcalf over there at circa and then and then Todd backed into a corner, realizing he just got beat at his own game and looked like an ass, decided to call them Jesus and God. Is that a good recap? Dot? Oh? The only last part is that Chris Felika, who I consider the true God, the true god of the college football world, agrees with me. Has nothing to do with

what you asked. In the logic you were trying to give, you said, who would make the line? We have an actual line. Chris is not making lines, so you lose. Sorry, alright, what's that toose, guys? I'm sorry? What nothing, I'm just kidding around. Okay, final two questions gentlemen. Sorry, Mike Lamborne that you had to sit there all that apologize. I love listening to you guys, because a great Okay, here's the here's the final two questions. Which are the big favorites?

In your opinion? Is the most likely to lose out right this week in the National Football League, Minnesota ten and a half point favorites at home against the Denver Broncos. San Francisco ten point favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals ten ten and a half, somewhere in there, Oakland ten and a half point favorites at home against the Cincinnata Bengals. And we'll throw in the three that are six or six and a half just to make it interesting.

Buffalo six point favorites on the road against Miami, New Orleans six point favorites on the road against Tampa Bay And Sunday night, the Rams six and a half point favorites at home against the Chicago Bears. Michael Lamboard, which of those is the most likely to lose outright? I'm looking at this Denver Minnesota game. We run one of the models, the early play efficiency model, and last week Mark took the Miami Dolphins at plus four eighty based

on that early play efficiency model. I don't know if he'll be on Denver in this spot. We record that on Friday, but our model does give us slight lean to Denver. And then if you believe in this sort of thing, the Vikings coming off a big win the Broncos off of by should be a bit of an advantage there as well. So I'm staying away from Minnesota there, that's not a stay away that we're asking like, which of those big favorites is most likely to lose? Outright? Sorry, yeah, Minnesota.

I think it has a shot to go down. Okay. See, this is the thing with Mike Lamboard does not play by anybody rules. He just answers whatever he wants to answer. Mike Palm, you know what I'm gonna go with New Orleans. Uh, it's it's how much of an outlier can this be that a team that had ZrO defense the whole year in Atlanta was able to just beat the hell out of Drew Brees at him seven times. Um, if another team with no defense is Todd would say the Bucks

can do that, then they're very susceptible. I was just I thought that was the most shocking result of the year, and I'm still bothered by that, and I can't find myself supporting Fannie pack Vick. So uh, I'm gonna go with this thing. Yeah, I mean my thing here is, so I just gave you three games that were ten or ten and a half in three games that were

six or six and a half. So obviously you want to gravitate towards the six and the six and a half, but just by instinct, but I will say this about all three of those games that are six or six and a half, I could see Miami beating Buffalo outright, I could see Tampa Bay beating New Orleans out right, and I could absolutely see Chicago beating the Rams out right. Like those Just based on that thought alone, those ought

to be three against the spread picks for me. Really, I'm just sort of talking myself into it as we speak. But if you're asking me to pick one of them, I will I will say that it's the Miami Dolph. You know, I'm gonna say Miami Dolphins number one. We all have to live through that together. I'm gonna I'm gonna agree with Mike Palm. I think it's Tampa Bay

with a slightest. I think it's New Orleans. New Orleans is the big favorite, most likely to lose out right, with a slight edge over both Buffalo and the Rams. The Rams. I'd love to pick Chicago there to win it out right, but there's Trabisky and that, and that bears offense, so that bothers. That's bothersome. With Buffalo in Miami, I can see Miami totally covering. But it's like Miami to win out right, I mean, it's never fun. But Tampa Bay they're as valerable as they come, as you

talked about earlier, Todd. So I'd say that's the one. I'd go with the Miami Dolphins. I just did their song for you. And the reason I do it is they were on the road at Buffalo up fourteen to nine, on the two yard line late in the third quarter to go up twenty one nine. They probably win the game, they didn't, but I don't see any reason why they can't beat the Buffalo Bills at home. Uh, you know,

Buffalo is what Buffalo is, their mediocre. So I I think Miami is the most likely, and I don't see that. I don't see the Saints dropping laying two eggs in a row. Alright, Michael Lamboard, which of these games you want? No part of whatsoever. We live in a strange, bizarre world where you had to pick a side and bet aside on each of these pre flop. What's the one you wouldn't bet? Yeah, New Orleans Tampa Bay based on the Drew Brees situation. Not sure what version we're getting.

I'm gonna stay away from that game. I'm gonna go with the Dallas games simply because we don't know Stafford status, and if we did, I would still look probably back the Lions here if we did. I'm down on the Cowboys. I think they're an eight and eight team, and I agree with you, Gil, Philadelphia is very live to have a three or four seed. I'm with it. I know this is this is strange that I would answer this for both questions. But it's New Orleans Tampa Bay for

me because that game could go any possible way. I think Tampa Bay plus six is gonna be a pick for me. Could I see New Orleans beating him by twenty Yeah. I wouldn't be the strangest thing in the world either, But I could see Tampa Bay winning it easily out right, and I think I'm with you, Michael Lamborn, where I don't. I don't know what version of Drew

Brees we're getting. Keep in mind last year before the whole Rams Saints postseason game took all the headlines away and we were focused on the bad refereeing in that game, Drew Brees was kind of sucky at football. So that's my pick there as well. Todd finishing it off. You know what I'm gonna go with with Mike Palms call, how do you know what's going to happen in Detroit? You don't know who the quarterback is. It seems very uh fishy, the whole thing. And but I also agree

with Mike. I don't think the Cowboys are any good, So I'll pretty much go with exactly Mike's answer on that one. All right, boys, we've done all we can do. Michael Lamborn from Clare Data Sports. Thank you, Michael, producing number one numbers game. All right, Thanks Gil, Thank you, Michael, Mike palm and Roach to a meeting walking us through Circus Sports here by Skype video. Thank you, Mike, appreciate it. Todd Wishnup. Thank you as well. Yes, and nice to

meet you, Mike, um Mike from you as well. Good luck with all your bests this week. Get in the National Football League Week eleven. Thank you so much for listening.