Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 1 Preview

their brand, So that's where you can find them. I wish them all the best. However, I'm very excited to have these two gentlemen on the show this year. You may know them if you're a Visa listener. If you do not listen to Visa, perhaps you know one of these guys from the Showtime docuseries Action on my Left. Ladies and gentlemen, the Great Todd wishing of hello to

thank you for doing this. It's my pleasure Gil obviously. Um, you know this is a nice little thing that came out of the Gill and Todd Show onst So the Gill and Todd Show not actually a thing and all my right. Uh. He is the conciliary to Derek Stevens. Over at Circus Sports, they're running a phenomenal football handicapping contest which actually has some application to something very timely in the news right now, which we'll get into momentarily.

What is your exact title over at Circle, Mike Well, the exact title is Vice President of Operations, Vice President of Operations. Over there at Circuits Sports they run the d Golden Gate and of course the brand new Circuit Casino which is set to open late twenty with a brand new UH Spanking News sports book in Circle A Shangri lav Sports Books in December of Mike Palm pump that you can join us before we get into anything, guys, This Antonio Open Brown news is happening right now as

we're recording this podcast. Adam Schefter reporting on his Twitter that this has gotten ugly all of a sudden between the Raiders and Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown clearly not the brightest bulb. Antonio Brown posted the fine letter he got fined, posted that fine letter on social media that Raiders GM Mike Mayock sent him. It led to an exchange. We're not sure how physical it got, but it's now leading

to further discipline. Adam Schefter says it's not going away anytime soon, and he goes on to say now and this is the tweet that really gets everybody. This is his latest tweet. There are those around the league who now believe the Raiders could suspend Antonio Brown with the idea of trying to avoid the thirty point one to five million dollars of guaranteed money in his contract, which

obviously would end his time in Oakland before it even begins. Wow, Oakland and Denver of course in a virtual pick him of a game. Well, actually Denver by two and a half. Now, the one thing I want to relate this to the circuit contest, Mike go real quick off the bat. Here's the difference between other contests like the Westgate that post their lines on Wednesday afternoon. You don't post him till Thursday. Already a more accurate line per HAPs from you guys

now because of this. Yeah, we we went all the way from from Raiders one going to pose Raiders one uh to Broncos two and a half for the contest. So we we you know, we supposed that the difference between Wednesday afternoon Thursday morning might come into play several times during the year. Well with this bombshell, it already is a big factor in week one. It's amazing that it's happened at week one. All right, gentlemen, you guys

ready to do this? The new podcast cast gives us an opportunity to do a new format also on the show, So we're gonna do this a little differently. And for those wondering, are we're gonna have a rotating guest on some weeks, Yes, we absolutely will. We will have that as well. Last thing about the Raiders. John Pruten was just heard saying, man, we're gonna run the whist bone we lost for best receiver knocked on wood if you're with me, which got very tiring on Hard Knocks this year.

By the way, it was the worst season of Hard Knocks ever. Can we just establish that was the worst thing ever? Episode five with a whimper, that's how it went out. Let's begin first before we get into your best best of the week. Thursday night for ball Green Bay at Chicago. This line was about four most of the summer in Chicago by three in this ballgame, do either of you have any preflop play on this ball game, either side or total. Mike, start with you. I do I.

I played the first half under twenty three. I sat here thinking about this game for the last few weeks, thinking if I was going to take the Bears if it came down to three. But I just think I'll tell you one for Gil and Todd. I'm not impressed with the body of work of Fleur. I mean, I still can't get over that game at home against Baltimore last year where they went one for ten on third downs.

Now you couple that with Rogers, who has to put in a new system for the first time in thirteen years, UM, very little reps for the first team offense in the preseason. UM. And combine that with the fact that the Bears are one of the worst teams in explosive plays of twenty yards or more. I think you might see a slow start to this game. So I thought, I usually try

to make a total on every game. I put this total right around forty two and a half forty three, So I think there's some value trying to go under twenty three in the first half. I think we might get a couple stale series right off the bat. I like that, By the way, game total forty six and a half. Just to clarify, but Mike making a play on the first half under uh, Todd, anything for you? And when I say it's three points, by the way,

it's three with extra juice. Consensus about minus one minus juice. That's pretty much what it is across the board. Anything for you, Todd. I strong lean if it's minus three. They're basically saying that the Bears and the Packers are even teams, and the home field advantages three and soldier field, and I see how the Bears and the Packers are

equal teams. Just look at last year. Because I know it's Aaron Rodgers, and I know it's scary to lay points against Aaron Rodgers, but um, if anything, I would lean to the Bears minus three. Let us begin with Sunday. By the way, I have no play whatsoever. Thanks for asking, guys. Appreciate it that you care so deeply. I have no play on this game. I'm gonna end game. I'm gonna watch it, and uh, perhaps bet while it's going on. As far as the rest of the weekend is concerned,

let's do our best bets. We do have the final two questions that we always have coming up at the end of the show, we have our teaser of the week coming up as well, But let's just do best bets. Mike, we start with you your single best bet of the weekend, Sir. I like the Giants catching a touchdown at at Jerry

World Is. I think this is going to be an improved version of the Giants um Ezekiel hold out, I think may have an effect on the Cowboys, and I'm not sure that that that this Cowboys team, although the offensive line should be better this year, is that markedly much better in a division game. It's really hard to

lay a touchdown in a division game. And I think the Giants here are actually a team that's uh that could could could stay in this game late and have a chance at an upset if you look at the history of the series as well, and just take a look at the time since it's been Dack versus Eli, the Giants have traditionally played the Cowboys close, even in

these opening games, which are usually a Texas stadium. So I grabbed up the seven here with the g Yeah, and you can find some seven and a half's out there as well, Like seven and a hook is pretty rampidtly available plus seven and a half minus one, ten's out there some minus one fifteen. I'm kind of with you there, as as barish as I am on the Giants. They might not be that bad. This is one of these NFC East games where in past years this would

be an automatic three on the line. Such a poor opinion folks have of the Giants that you're catching seven or seven and a half. Let's put it this way. I would not rush to lay the points with the Cowboys. Todd, what is your best bet this week? But I would agree with you. How can you lay seven alf the Cowboys? They're not a team anyways that that wins by margins. They run too much to win by a big margin. But the best bet that I have is the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half. I know there's all

the Browns hype. I know the Browns up, you know, basically twenty two Hall of Fame or starting on offensive here and coming of Jesus and Baker may feel at the quarterback position, but I just don't buy it until I see it. Freddie Kitchens is the Coats. What do we know about Freddie Kitchen? Nothing? Zero point zero do we know about Freddie Kitchen, so I am not buying it. The Tennessee Titans are well coached. They won some games on the road last year, including a game at Dallas.

I can remember. They usually keep you in the game. Their defensive kind of team team they don't you know. It's not a light them up, you know, crazy four board type of game, so it could easily be a tight game. I like the Tennessee Tits, like the Tennessee plus five and a half my best bet. And again we'll we'll keep track of these for the for the duration of the year. That should be fun. I'm sure we won't hear the end of that if it goes bad or or or if it goes good for Todd,

that's true, that would be the other scenario. I gets to take shots me and say that I won't hear the end of it. Meanwhile, he starts winningning he gets his whole like clan palm readers or whoever else clan that he's got. It'll talk him up. Let me just tell everybody right now, Todd is in l A for this particular episode. Todd's audio will be better from here on out. I just want to point that outside any better right now? Yeah, a little better right there? I think,

all right, my my best bet. I'm actually taking the Cincinnati Bengals plus the nine and a half against the Seattle Seahawks. I get it, Seattle's got Jadeveon Clowney Seattle, known for fine prowess at home in Seattle. But I don't get nine and a half here at all with no real weapons, now that Doug Baldwin has left no real weapons on the outside, that we can really be truly fearful of Tyler Lockett, good ball player, but I don't know that without Baldwin to sort of take away

attention from him, I'm not sure. That's the thing we don't know about DK mccalf. We don't know what's happening there with his weapons. I don't know that they can score enough points to cover nine and a half that easily. And I actually think Joe Mixing and crew do some things on offense even without a j Green. Give me the nine and a half points site unseen on these two teams. Like I get the Eagles being ten point

favorites against the Redskins. That's a lot of points. But I think the Redskins are are really bad at football. I don't know that we know this about the Bengals yet, so I'll take the nine and a half as just a first salvo of the season. And again these are all site unseen obviously, but give me the nine and a half. I don't know how you guys feel about that.

You know, it's interesting because I'm sorry Todd. You know it's hard enough looking at you, being next to you and looking at you and being able to speak now when we're in different places is what more. But it's interesting, Gil, because the guy was that for me or for Todd today. It's also your experience with him as well, and in fact you've already started talking. But um, the boys that Circuits Sports made this eight and a half on the

cod test. I thought that was pretty interesting. Obviously they shade the game the way you do, Gil, Yeah, so interesting, so they shade eight and a half? Interesting? How so your lines on in the contest now now in the sports book? Is it also eight and a half in the sports book right now? The last I looked at was nine, But they may be anticipating it goes to

eight and a half. Obviously, these contest lines are also an anticipation of where where the live line is going to end up, absolutely, because they're static and so you have to have some sort of anticipation on it. By the way, I just want to I just wanna say that I agree with you on that since it was almost my best bet of the week. All right, Well, if it's your second or third, well we'll hear about it. Two. I like it. I like the consensus Mike number two

for you. Yeah, maybe this is a square play, but I I at the Lions. I liked the two and a half. I wish I'd got in it earlier, but I don't want to wait for it to get to three because it's going to three. Um. I just think that this Cardinals team and Cliff Klingsbury way over his head, Um, this is a great spot for the lines. I think

going down there Arizona's defense. As much as we want to talk about kings Burry in the offense and Kyler Murray, take a look at that defense that that defense is putred. I think the Lions will have their best rushing attack that they've had in years, and I look for the Lions to be able to control the ball here and when this game pretty comfortably on the road. So my second best bet is the Detroit Lions laying two and a half. Let me ask you, when you saw Jalen Hurts,

and I know it was against Houston. Houston is awful on defense, But when you saw Jalen Hurts put up Techmobile numbers in Oklahoma's opener against Houston, was there a little part of you that thought about Kyler Murray and that sort of said to yourself, I know, Kyler's fun and he had a great year, and he was and he was absolutely tremendous, But did it minimize him at

all for you? That you can now firmly establish from Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray to perhaps even Jalen Hurts, who we've never seen do this at Alabama right, that maybe the Cardinals did not make the right pick with

the first pick of the draft. It actually you you bring up a point that I thought about because I had a strong feeling going into that Sunday night game that that Hurts was not going to be able to adapt to this system just because of the way Saban plays is compared to to Oklahoma and not in a hurry up and straight ahead running and dropped back, and boy, he just picked up like like where Murray left off.

And so it does sort of diminish what Murray did if anybody can step into it, especially somebody that spent two years being successful in a totally polar opposite system. Yeah, it definitely, at the very least, I think it was valid that the thought comes up, and we'll see if it happens. You're taken Detroit laying the two and a half. I don't think that's square. By the way, where did you hear my next pig? Now this is this is super square coming up, ladies and gentlemen once again. Todd

wishnev the star, the bona fide star of Showtime's docuseries Action. Todd, by the way, for those who don't know, you were the lovable character on Showtimes docuseries Action, you were made to look like the everyman that you were just this

guy in a casino who hangs out every day. By the way, that parts true, but that you really didn't know what you were doing so much, but fair to say that in real life, and I think you display this on visa and all the time, that you are not only smarter than you were portrayed as but you're the smartest guy in the room at all times. Well, if I'm not in the room with Mike Palm, he may not be the smartest, but he's always the most cerebral.

That's very we We were doing a lot of inside jokes folks for people who listened to the visas and uh Gil and Todd show. When I'm on Gil's show, Um, you know, we have a whole football coach who's very physical out there, and you know he's not very cerebral, but he's very physical. So anyways, knock on wood if you're with me, man, uh, let me just say I can't. I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop saying that all year. Um. Yeah, we won't get tired of

that or anything. The different for Mr for miniature Kyler Murray is that on the team that he's gonna be on, I don't believe they play with an offensive line. And on the team that he was on last year, Oklahoma, they have a huge offensive line. That could be a slight difference. I think that both of you guys are are making the point on um, Oklahoma is almost plug and play when you got those big hawses up in front. I think me or Mike could even throw two yards.

You know, it's like ridiculous. Um. But anyways, back you were asking me about the second best bet. Yes, okay, I'm gonna go because you already used since you can, you can totally use ones that other people have used. I want your authentic three best bets. I'm I'm on. I'm on the fence on these. I'm gonna do something crazy here and I'm gonna go with ten fits magic and you're gonna say you and seen are you crazy? And yeah, I guess I'm crazy. But let's let's remember

Ryan Fitzpatrick's usual old pattern. He goes to a new team, he plays really well, and then inevitably the three and four interception games start. So what if he has the same pattern in Miami and Miami's not horrible, I guess on defense, and maybe they can stay in the game. They've had a whole offseason to watch the Lamar Jackson ship on tape, so they could probably you know, get get, you know, school them up or coach them up on that whole deal. Baltimore is not exactly a team that

wins by a million anyway. Ways, and in the NFL, six points is a lot of points. So I'm gonna go. I'm gonna be crazy here. As long as Josh Rosen is not in the game, I'm gonna go with Miami plus two six. You hate Josh Rosen, You hate him like he's thrown too many bad interceptions. Good fellow tribesman on the leaflet, Josh Rosen, you hate him? Plus six and a half? Home dog? You do? You will not go broke betting home dogs. I I do not hate

that pick. By the way, I do not hate that catching six and a half at home for the Dolphins, whose season win total is four and a half. How many times have we seen fits Magic play well for a game or two or even three well. Famously with the Bucks, he had a ridiculous September right he was tremendous, filling for four yards every week, seemingly. So we'll see if that's the case of Miami, who just there were

four and oh with the Buffalo Bills one year. Remember that I do not, but I thank you for reminding me that is correct. He was four an o with the Bills. They just traded their starting left tackle, Laramie Tunzell, their number one wide out, and Kenny Stills, so this should be interesting, let's put it that way. My my second pick is, uh, if we're using the word square, this is about as square as it gets. And this is this is like malpractice because this line is only increased.

So we're doing this Thursday morning before the game. Philadelphia is giving ten now to the Washington Redskins. I'm giving it. I'm a I'm a lifelong Washington Redskins fan. They are not going to be good at football this year. They have a credible defense. The goal for the Redskins defense is to hold the opponent to seventeen points and hope that they're offkins their offense overcome it. I think the

Eagles are going to the super Bowl. I think Carson Wentz is going to have a major bounce back season. I just think they're a better football team up and down than the Redskins. I will give the ten points. I think the Eagles blow out the Redskins in Philly on Sunday. How about them apples right there? I might mention that game as well. When we get to the teasers, gill oh, I like that all right? Um, I want to ask you a question, Gil, in reference to Todd's

Dolphins play do Youth. Do you think that the Dolphins are intentionally tanking? Yes, by if people have trouble with the word tanking, so let me define what I mean by that. I think they're absolutely tanking based on what my definition is of the word tanking, which is not a bad word, by the way. So I think they are intentionally doing a Houston Astro Chicago Cubs thing right where they're stripping it down. They are going to go with youth and low cost and then they're gonna try

to build it up. So if that's the definition of modern day tanking and respect, then I believe they absolutely are. You I don't understand if they're going to do that, why they don't play Rosen. I agree, you're trying. If you're trying to build a team for three years from now, then once you want to get this kid the work over that stretch, I would think. So that's where it doesn't make sense to me agree with that, by the way, and you know who else, I don't understand why they're

not playing the rookie quarterback. Why are the Giants bothering playing Eli Manning at all, what's that? Like? What is what's the point of that? And I think Daniel Jones for all the uh the crap that he got for the Giants drafting him so early, none of that. And I tried to point this out on a numbers game at Visa seven and nine Pacific tend to down Eastern Money through Friday, serious sex and Channel two four uh

that that. I think the criticism of Daniel Jones is ill found it because none of us know how good these guys are gonna be. And by the way, my buddy e most successful sports better. I know he loved Daniel Jones senior year. In fact, he said, besides Kyler Murray, that's the best quarterback in the league or in college. Excuse me. We can criticize the Giant for when they drafted him, because the draft is a game after all. Maybe they didn't play the game correctly, but it wasn't

a referendum on Daniel Jones. I don't understand why the Giants don't play Hi from the beginning. I agree with you there, and I go back to when the Cowboys drafted Akman. I mean they put him in there and let him take his lumps on and one in fifteen year. I mean, were they going to try to protect him and stay with Steve Tulure or the guys like that, you know, I mean you have to you have to let him get in there and play and learn the game, learned the NFL game and the speed that it's at

in the complexity of the Are you talking about Steve Burlin? Yeah, Steve Walsh was also on that roster then, wasn't he. There were many Steves that were backup quarterman. He was talking about Steve Burlin anyways, trying to get the Notre Dame guys in Do you know who the Cowboys beat that year? Yes? The Washington Redskins on a Sunday night. Doug Williams by the way, talking about the young quarterback.

If I could bet at circa a future who will have the better career and we can come up with some metric on careers, but I will take Daniel Jones minus one thirty five over Josh Rosen all day long. You're you're such an anti semit side. What is going on with you with Courter? Ever since Mike WERKOVICI did it to me in the Holme Kipper Master and that you didn't you didn't even know he was Jewish? Then that's right. That shows that just shows you how how

how powerful it is. Well, we'll have to tell the youme Kipper massacre story on a subsequent podcast. You can also get it on on my pin tweet at my Twitter. On my first appearance on GIL, I told funny gambling stories Kipper massacre from people Single Love? Is it Mike's turn again? Last best bet? Mike, Wow, I gotta have three best bets. That's how unbelievable. I'm a little more just you don't have to if you don't. If if two is where you want to end it, we can

do too. We're just you know, I don't know where this line is going to end up, but it seems seemingly keep keep going down, keeps going down. Um. I know Michael Lombardi talked about the humidity and and I know there's concerns about the surrounding circumstances with the hurricane. But boy, I think I think the Chiefs are just a lot better side here and are gonna still put up put up points when they go down to Jacksonville. So this number creeps down closer to three. I think

this game is worth a play if it gets to three. Um. With the Chiefs on the road there, I see some threes out there in uh some offshore bookmaker five times three with extra juice. Um. So it is available to some on Kansas City, but it is down there. Did you know this? This Jaguarar team was so injured and banged up and didn't really get to play, get to play together. And Maron said, I'm not playing anybody in

the preseason because everybody's hurt, so they've had no reps together. Um, And I just think the Chiefs are the spot here. I know I didn't. I didn't really like to lay five five and a half, but as this number has come down, I'll lay three when I can get it. Yeah, I don't. I don't hate it. I really don't. Todd number three. Am I allowed to do a total or doesn't have to be Yeah, no, you can do a total. Do whatever you want, man. I think that the New

England Patriots versus the Pittsburgh Stiller's is a great under. Um. If you remember they played under fifty. The New England Patriots really turned into a different kind of team late in the season last year, kind of became ground and pound and play good defense. I think people are sleeping on the fact that the Patriots defense is a lot

better from the end of last season. Now I could be totally wrong on this, and the Patriots could do their usual first four games where they go to and two and lose by thirty to some ridiculous club from Detroit. That could happen, as it's happened in many Super Bowl years for the Patriots. But with that being said, I kind of like the under here. I think the Steelers are gonna run the ball. I think the Patriots defense

is a lot better. I think the Steelers defense is going to be better with Bush from uh with Bush from Michigan, I think under fifty is probably not a bad play. You know. I used to work with twin brothers at a startup in San Francisco, and every once in a while they would come into work and purposely mispronounced words and act like they had pronounced it that way the whole time. Patriots was one of those words that they once came in and mispronounced. One day, I

was like, why are you guys naming Patriots? They're like, what are you meaning? Reggae was another one that leaps to mind the music genre reggae. Reggae, I will do it. I will have a correlated play to yours as my number three. By the way, Mr Wishnep, I am taking the Steelers plus the points. You like the under I'll take the Steelers plus the points in that six points is a lot. And I, by the way, I have bet Big Ben to win the m v P this

year at one. I think with the absence of the now fully exposed headcase that is Antonio Brown, with the absence of Levon Bell, I think Ben is on a mission. I still think he has great weapons and James Connor and Juju, and I think James Washington is gonna be a great weapon this year. Uh, in his first real season playing meaningful minutes with the Steelers. Give me the six points all day long. I will take six Sunday night. I think this game is close and that six is

a gift. So Steelers plus six that would be uh my third best bet. So someone out there will keep track of this. We will keep track of it as well. People in the Twitter verse will absolutely do so, and we'll will monitor these sport For today's Beating the Book Podcast, comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot EU.

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three hundred dollars right now. Don't miss out before we get to our favorite teasers of the week in the final two questions. Mike Circus Sports Million update for those who still have to sign up. So we we we crossed over the magical threshold of fifteen hundred to eliminate the overlay, and now everything gets plowed back into the

quarterly winners. For those not familiar, there's really five contest for mini contest within a contest, the best record each month, which is the four weeks in September, four weeks in October, four weeks, November in the five weeks, and December was guaranteed fifty thousand. Well, now all these additional entries beyond fifteen hundred go back into there. As of ten am this morning, we were at one thousand, five hundred and

fifty four. I think we'll cross sixteen hundred today and I'm very sure that we're gonna get to seventeen hundred. I've sort of said that as a magical number because if you get two hundred above the minimum, that adds an extra two hundred thousand to the quarters and split. Now the quarters suddenly become a hundred thousand minimum instead of fifty thousand. So I'm pretty confident. I think tomorrow will be a big day. So you come down to the Deer or the Golden Gate here downtown on Freemont

Street to the Circus Sports Book. It's a quick process minutes, gets a registered for the contest, signed up for the app, and you can load it up for live wagering as well. We can make our picks weekly via the app, which is just such a huge thing. Now. Paully Howard, as soon as the lines came out at ten am, he's sitting here at Long Bar. He just put his five picks in. Boom boom, boom, boom boom. He's in nice Polly Howard part of the Bitch and Paul follow the

Money Show at Visa as well. Todd, you were saying something, Yeah, the reason I did that the Circle this year was because of the quarterly contest. I think it's the most I think it's the best innovation in the contest is the quarterly. And if you get a hundred thousand for each quarterly, I mean that's fantastic. Now I'm like, I'm gonna assume if two guys go seventeen and three, they each get fifty out of the hundred. Is that I

just break up, you know, split evenly. I guess, yeah, what if eight guys go eighteen and two, then we're gonna split a hundred thousand and eight ways, twelve five each exactly for the million itself for the top price for the contest, though there's like forty eight tiebreakers. We want one person to win the contest and win the whole million. What's the forty what's tiebreaker? By the way, how close you came to your actual jacket side. That's a great one. Wow. I hope somebody wins on that.

It's hard. It's hard for a guy like Todd who's losing so rapidly. Yeah, I'm gonna lose that one. Todd wishnev losing losing ridiculous amounts of pounds and is he will tell you more importantly, his blood sugar level dipping you are you are now south of three hundred pounds not? Is that right? I'm about two nine three h point of reference, I was three thirty three in the action Showtime series when you saw my large belly hanging over

my shorts. One other quick point to mention is you called me anti Semitic when you said, uh, I talking about quarterbacks. But it's obviously not true, certainly when you talk about receivers, because you talked about my favorite jew, double jew jew Smith Schuster as a wide receiver. I love them. So I may be anti Semitic towards quarterbacks, but I love Jewish wide receiver. Yes, for those who don't know, Todd By the Way was once an Orthodox Jew.

Uh so we are. I want people to understand that we're not making making serious one of this and now you are a renounce to jew that's what you call yourself. Correct. Yes, we don't have enough time to go into that right now. Different show, whole, different show. We supposed, Gail, we tried to suppose what record would it take, yes to win the first like to win September. Come up with a number I said, I said, eighteen one and one would

win it. Man eight if eighteen and one, If eighteen and two wins that I was right, eighteen eighteen one and one would have won it. But I think it's gonna be right around eighteen or seventeen is probably going to be the magic numbers to get there. And starting like the uh the after two weeks at each month, we'll we'll start talking about who who's within range. You know, who's in the top top thirty that month or top fifty that's within a game or two, and it gets

pretty interesting. You know, there's actually like four races to to the winner circle in this contest, and that's that's also interesting because you're gonna have to play a game theory on the quarterlies while you're is still in the main contest. So it brings a lot of interesting strategy to what was actually talking about game strategy today. It was on the Gil Alexander's show, also called The Numbers Game on Visa and Channels four, sometimes also called The

Gill and Codd Show. But that show he was talking about the game theory at the end of the contest, where people who are behind by a game or two have to try to figure out who the people in front of them are gonna take, so they take the other side and they have a chance to pick up a game, because if they both end up on the same side, they can't end up picking up any games.

And if you're this this contest with the quarterly, let's say you're let's say you're fifteen and one going into a quarterly, you might have to do some game theory even though it's only week four or week eight or week twelve, for for example. It's a great point I had not. I had actually not thought of that. That's

a little thing. Yeah, it's a little bit like if you have a full game bet and you have a halftime as well, and you're trying to use in game strategy on your halftime and your and your full game or first five in full game in baseball. I've had to do this, and it's interesting where you don't want to put yourself in a pickle. Mike Palm was talking

about what it would take to win the quarterlies. Now, obviously on a short sample size, you're gonna need seventeen eighteen wins to win the quarter but to win the whole thing, I think you're gonna need somewhere in the neighborhood of seventy. And I'm saying that based on what's happened in the past in the Super Bowl, as they've had more and more contestants, you've needed a higher and

higher percentage. But since you guys are going to be in about seventeen hundred this year, I'm thinking seventies might win the whole thing. Mike, what do you think about that? I put that that's somebody asked me, and I said, I think if you can get to seventy one percent, you've got a real good shot to win it, or at least be in the top five. I think seventy percent is the threshold right now. I always like to say, if you're not even at sixty percent, you shouldn't even

be discussing where you are in the standings. You know, there's a year every few years where it's just a tough year and somebody wins at sixty So the uh the Starbucks Barrista won the Super Contest a few years ago, dipping back to old school level percentage wins of sixty. Uh, there was a lot. I mean it was it was only a few years ago. It wasn't like it wasn't an old school year. There was a lot of entries. There was well over a thousand Damon Graham, by the way,

who's been on this podcast. So I think I think seventy percent is probably the threshold. What's the all time record? The all time record is what James Salinas or C. H. Bawlers for the old Super Contest one they had the record, So we'll see. I think seventy percent is absolutely what you have to look for. Um, But I hadn't thought of that quarterly thing where you almost have to make the What you're saying, Todd is you have to make

the calculus. If you're in it going into the final week of the quarter contest, you almost have to make the decision do I go for the hundred thousand here at the risk of fucking up the big one? And what made me think of this is that because you talked about this on your show today when you had Crack on, I believe you were talking about the contest at the end of the contest where you have to have this game theory just so that people understand exactly

what we're talking about. If you if you need in first and second place and you're behind me by two games and I picked and you end up on the same teams as me, forget it lost because there's no way you can make up ground. Whereas if you pick five the opposite teams of you could theoretically five and two and thirty and you can win because you pick up three games. So that kind of thing is gonna in play even in a quarter the situation, and then

you brought up make the great point. You have to decide do I go for the hundred k or do I worry more about my season long deal. Yeah. You know what's interesting too. What's interesting to Gil and Todd is that in our contest, obviously we're only paying ten because we didn't know people are critical of that. Well they only k ten, But we didn't know if we were going to have three hundred entries. It was our first year. But think of this, second place for the

overall contest is a hundred thousand. You know, it goes from a million to a hundred down to whatever sixty five. But so each quarter, if we get to seventeen hundred, is actually going to be the same as second place. So so that that that quarterly theory is pretty strong. Now I am so worried that I know my jacket size right now. You have no idea. It's got to get that down. Also, Todd, Todd, did you notice the way that Gil suddenly hinted back to something you mentioned

earlier by intentionally mispronouncing Barista. I didn't, did I is it not pronounced barista A barista lista? Yes? Oh, I'm sorry, I think I mean you did pronounce Steve Ploor Steve Burline, or that's true, you did misper pronounced Steve Burline. That's correct, that barista may be an alternate pronunciation. I might be critical here, Yeah, I think I think I might be. Okay, all right, gentlemen, let's wrap this up here. Teaser of the week, Mike, you got DIBs? What do you got?

I'm gonna go to two of your best bets. I'll tease the Eagles down, and I'm gonna tease the uh. I'm gonna tease the Steelers up. Yeah, we don't quite get the Eagles through the three at this point. When we do get them through the seven, but I'm if I may jump my turn here, Todd, that's actually mine as well. Pittsburgh up to twelve, through the seven and the ten and the Eagles down. I love that one, Todd.

I'm sorry. I like the San Diego Chargers, even though they are no longer in San Diego, handicapped at the coach. I like the San Diego Chars to cheese down to I believe around one or a half, right, because we're doing six point teasers, right, okay? Chargers? And then the Saints, the New Orleans Saints last scene suing the National Football

League for a penalty in New Orleans court. I will take them down to plus a half against the maybe most annoying coach in the history of the National Football League, Bilbrian. All right, and you are, it should be pointed out, you are doing the teasers proper, the old Stanford Wong teasers again, the most profitable teasers in the National Football League.

Taking a home favorite down through the seven and three, which is Todd just did with both the charges in the Saints, or taking small favorites either on the home or roadside, and teasing them up to go through the three and seven the other way. Those are the most profitable teaser legs. Teasing a team that is a seven points, say, road favorite down is not a positive evy situation. Not that we had any of those just now, but just to let people know moving forward with the teaser segment.

And by the way, if you don't believe me, Todd and I, you too. You and I talked about this on the show the other day. The South Point Hotel Casino had twenty one different permutations of teasers. They did a little inventory on this before last football season. They had twenty one different permutations six point teaser, six and a half, seven point anywhere between two to eight teams. They found that they were getting beat on fifteen of them,

and so what did they do? They raised the juice on all of those because what they wanted to do was make your break even strike that much higher. Your break even percentage went up incrementally, and so that tipped the scales back in their favor. So again, you don't have to believe what we're saying. The books are basically admitting that to you by making those kinds of price adjustments. Final two questions, gentlemen, is how we close out each and every podcast. This is the one sort of carry

over from all of it. Which is the big favorite on the board? Define mine by I sort of fudget. Usually it's a touchdown or more, but sometimes I dip it down to six boy favorites or more, which are the big favorite on the board that you believe is the most likely to lose. Out right, here are your

choices from week one. The Eagles, as we've talked about, ten point favorites over the Redskins, I'll throw in the the should I throw in Cleveland Shore Cleveland six point favorites or five and a half point favorites Hosting the Tennessee Titans Baltimore six and a half point favorites on the road at Miami, Seattle ten point favorites at home against Cincinnati Chargers six and a half point favorites at home against the Colts, and then Dallas seven point favorites

at home against the Giants. And we mentioned New Orleans seven point favorites at home the first of two Monday night games hosting the Texans. Mike, which is the one most likely to lose outright, Well, it's the same as my My first best bet is, uh, the Cowboys. I think the Giants are a live dog here and have a shot to win this game. Todd, same question, I have the same answer to. It's the same as my best bet the Titans plus the five and a half

against Freddie Kitchens and Jesus and quarterback. I'm gonna take the Dallas Cowboys. Believe it or not, I'm gonna take the Dallas Cowboys. Like division game, you never quite know what could happen there. Dallas just getting Zeke back of course this week. That is one of five afternoon games. That's the one thing the NFL got right in Week one, because I don't think CBS has the US open package anymore tennis, which obviously has the men's final this Sunday,

so five afternoon games. I would say Dallas the most likely to lose out right. We none of us are predicting by the way that these teams will lose out right, But if we had to choose one, uh, those are the teams were going with. And then the final question full slate of games. Sixteen games in the NFL Week one, which is the game on the side that if you had to pick one, Mike, if you were forced to bet fifteen of them on the side, but you've got one free pass, one game that you want no part

of whatsoever, which game would it be? I don't. I didn't want to play this Jets Bills game. I think these teams are awful close and the line is probably right at three. A lot of people are really bullish on the Jets. I'd like to I'd like to see these two teams play because I think that the thought is they're very similar and how successful they're going to be this year, so you get three points being at the Jets. I think the line is right on. I would not bet that game. Yeah, I don't. I would

stay away from that too. I don't know if it's my first choice, though, Todd, what's your What's the one you want no part of? The one I want no part of is the Rams Carolina. What Cam Newton is gonna show up? A healthy camp or a totally unhealthy Cam Newton who throws the ball five feet over guy's heads, does stupid thing, all kinds of nonsense, and you want to kill yourself if you back them. So I have no idea what Carolina team I'm getting this week, so

I want no part of it. For me, it's a toss up between Mike's Buffalo Jets pick because I really don't want any part of that and Denver Oakland actually the second of the two Monday night games. I don't really have a feel for that. And if you look at Oakland schedule, man, they better win this game because they don't win this good Lord, I don't know when they're winning. Their schedule is brutal. But I would actually say gunnahead Buffalo Jets. That's the one that I would

want the least part of. That would be my answer as well, Gil, can we get our since the season is starting to Nike in the three of us make our conference champion in Super Bowl predictions. Now, I just think that would be it. All right, let's do that. Let's hear from Todd Wish. Wow, I'm put on the spot. I didn't even know I needed to come up with one, but I guess I'm gonna do something boring. And I'm gonna go with Uncle Billy to win the a f C.

He seems to win it every year. How can not take Uncle Billy Belichick to win the a f C in the National Football Conference? I think I would have to go. And this is just totally on the spot. I'm gonna go with your New Orleans things. Wow, Mike, you want me to go next? Patriots Eagles? In fact, I bet it at to one. There's some markets that have exacted, some books that have the market for exact as which Christie Andrews, by the way, innovated many years ago.

And I and let me just say this in advance. They're two hundred and fifty six different combinations of teams that get to the Super Bowl. Obviously, you can throw out some crappy teams, so it's not quite that difficult, not quite that much of a crapshoot. You'll get almost as good odds on this right before the postseason, so

they're only thirty six combinations at that point. So this twenty five, the one that I have on the Eagles and the Patriots, you probably won't be worse than fifteen to one then, So not the greatest bet in the world to make now, but I made it nonetheless. But those are my two picks I went in terms of confidence. I'll tell the one that I have more confidence, and

I really love the Eagles in the NFC. I think it's a regression year um for the Rams and not knowing Girley's health, and then uh, a tough choice for me between Chiefs and Steelers in the FC, but I went with the Chiefs. So Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl, Chiefs and Eagles. Should we do one wacky division pick that does off the radar? Can we do that? Let's do that before we close. Because I have the Niners at plus three Niners plus three to in the

NFC West. I think a lot of people are sleeping on them. I think they've got a great young team that flies around. I think Jimmy g is gonna get it back together. And I think the Rams, while good will not be nearly as good as they were last year for any number of reasons, including the fact that Bill Belichick gave him a blueprint in the Super Bowl, the fact that we don't really know what Todd Gurley's doing. They had a great record in one score games last year.

There's a whole bunch of reasons. But Niners plus three to win the West? Anything from you, Mike, Yeah, but that's what I was going to give out. I bet I bet the Niners. I didn't bet them to win the West, but that would be my prediction of of of a team under the radar. I bet him overwin total and to make the playoffs. And then the other one is I think that the Falcons are very live in the in the NFC South. I think their schedule is very favorable for them and that they don't have

to play in any cold weather. So I'd look at Niners and Falcons. Is upset division winners? Niners and Falcons? Uh time my, uh, you know, pull it out of your ass, so to speak. It would be the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in that typical NFL pattern of big step up one year, and we know They almost beat the Patriots to go to Super Bowl two years ago after whooping the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. So they were almost a super Bowl team two years ago.

Then the ship hit the proverbial fan last year. And now if they can get it together with with Mr Nick Foles at the quarterback position, maybe they could have another big step forward. Because that defense was tremendous two years ago. And you know, if they could get that back together and get some stability instead of boarders at the quarterback position, why can't they win that division? Andrew Luck's not there and you've got Bill O'Brien, so why can't they win? I mean, I was gonna say take

of reasons, but you know, I don't wanna. I don't wanna say yeah. I'm just saying you're saying you want to pick that's like off the radar. Yeah, no, I like it. I like it. Well, Well, well, Mark mall Dann will see how ridiculous we are by the end of the season. I appreciate at Mike Palm conciliarated Derrick Stevens, the vice president of operations at Circuit Sports. Thank you, sir for being on and uh Todd Wish and of

multi media star Uh. You may know him from Showtime's docuseries Action as the lovable guy at the south Point sports Book. Thank you both, I appreciate it very much. Kill Alexander, thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week one in the NFL.