Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview

go to the Power Rank dot Net. It's a u r L that will take you to a page where you can learn more about the Power Rank eighteen Bowl Season Report, again brought to you by Ed Fang. I highly recommend it again at the Power Rank dot Net. Week number fifteen in the National Football League and as Marco will tell you, that means it's our second to last week of the regular season because we do not do a week seventeen, and if I try, Marco will tell me we're not doing it. So it is week fifteen.

We're excited about it. As the NFL season comes into the home stretch. That voice you heard on the right I believe is that of Marco to Angelo from Wager Talk. Good morning, Marco. We did it once and it was a total disaster. Total disaster because we don't know, you don't know who's playing, you don't know motivations, and it's just a whole thing. It's a squirrely week guessing lines. I don't do a guessing lines that week either. Thank you, Marco as always an ace. You're here too, Yes, yes, sir,

yes sir, thanks for having me again. And yes it's winding down, baby, but the postseasons around the corner, and that's the best part of the season. I am very, very excited, and we're very excited to have our score X winner join us for the wild card Megapod right now, Profitable in the lead three weeks to go. Now in the regular season, we'll see if he gets to the Promised Land or she. I don't know, profitable could be

she and our first returning guest of the year. We've gone this whole way having a different guest every week. He is our returning guests from week number one. He's been with us a couple of times at least every year. Super Contest Champion from the San Souci team, ladies and gentlemen. Brady Cannon, Good morning, Brady, Good morning guys. Happy to be back. Always a pleasure, and uh, you know, this is one of the fun things about football season every year,

joining you guys, getting around the Megapod roundtable. I appreciate the invitation and look forward to the next hour or so. We appreciate having you. All right, gentlemen, let's start it with Monday Night football. As we always do, we go

in reverse order. Monday Night, New Orleans at Carolina. New Orleans coming off a come from behind win against the Bucks that coupled with the Rams loss against the Bears on Sunday night, means that the Saints are back in the driver's seat for the number one position in the NFC playoffs. Right now, they hold the tiebreaker having beaten the Rams this year, So the Saints need to just win out and they've got home field throughout the NFC playoffs there at Carolina. Carolina has lost five games in

a row. They were six and two, now they're six and seven. They lose last week to the Cleveland Browns, and it's one of these situations again where you you watch the Panthers Christian McCaffrey fills up the box scory seemingly each and every week. But Cam Newton in key situations, especially in Golden Ghost situations. I don't know if there's something wrong with Cam, what's going on, but he has

no touch whatsoever. He's like whipping the ball into guys from the five yard Light's like the worst thing to watch, just awful to watch. Caroline and key situations. McCaffrey, as I mentioned, sixteen carries for sixty three yards two touchdowns, also six receptions for thirty eight yards last week in defeat, but the Panthers ten penalties for sixty eight yards five straight losses. As I mentioned, that'll increase the heat on coach Ron Rivera. Newton overthrew Jerry's right on fourth and

goal for three with two thirty five left. Uh and even though Carolina got the ball back, Newton, who has been playing with the sowred right shoulder, didn't have Devin Funches. He was picked off by Damarius Randall with fifty seven seconds left. And that's all. She wrote. Saints favored by

six here consensus across the board. Let's call it six and a half consensus because it's all over the place, really, but six and a half appears to be the consensus right now as we do this Thursday morning at Carolina, Brady, we start with you your thoughts. I made the line Saints minus seven, Gil, and it opened up Saints minus six and a half pretty much six everywhere now, as you say. And then in the super contest they made the number five and a half, which I think is

kind of interesting, and I think it may close even lower. Uh, some recreational play may bring the number back up a bit, but uh, you know, primetime game all the early money though in every opinion I've heard so far as on the Panthers, and when I crunched my numbers, I have New Orleans winning this game by five points. So there's definitely not enough, not enough of a discrepancy for me

to want to make a play on this game. And I think I'm glad my numbers came out as such, because as much as the situation makes sense for Carolina, I don't. I can't trust this team anymore. It was a while back on that Thursday Day night when they were just boat raced by the Stealers. They started out with an early score and it looked like we were in for a really good game, and then Pittsburgh just took off and buried them, and I thought that was an anomaly for the Panthers. I thought they were a

pretty good squad. And then the next week I backed them on the road at Detroit. And it still ticks me off that you're good, buddy Riverboat Ron decided to go for two instead of kick the extra point. Uh So Anyway, that was five games ago, and like you say, Carolina hasn't won a football game since. Since November four, they haven't won a game, and before that they lost two out of three. So I told myself a few weeks ago that this is a bad football team. I mean,

they look sexy. McCaffrey is great to watch, but I think they're a little bit in disarray right now, and I'm gonna pass on this game. I know the Saints machine has so showed some vulnerability, uh in the last couple of weeks, but I just can't back the Panthers, So I'm staying away from this one. Gil. I'm with you Brady on on Guessing lines on Monday on Visa

and on the podcast here Beating the Book. I actually guess New Orleans minus four and a half, and so you would think it would trigger a bet for me on the Panthers once I see the line what the actual line is. But I absolutely refused to put money behind the Carolina Panthers. I do not trust Cam Newton at all. I just think that this team has no clue how to win in crunch time. I think you said it right there. They find a way to lose.

They cannot close out a game. That's a good point, and yet they are just a half game out of the number two wild card position in the NFC. Minnesota's at six six and one Carolina along with Philadelphia and Washington at six and seven, So they're in it, right. They've got a lot to play for. Drew Brees Marco coming off a twenty four or thirty one performance at Tampa Bay for two hundred one yards, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked one time only two nine total yards

of offense for the Saints in victory. They were down fourteen and three at halftime from behind to win it, they repeat as NFC South champions. Their defense limited the bucks number one ranked offense to eighty one yards in the second half of that game last week, and most of that came on a final drive of the game, sort of garbage time. So Saints defense not often lauded as the strength of this football team and certainly won't be considered that now, certainly better this year than they

have been in recent years. Well, I can't disagree with anything you're pointed out there. The thing of this is, I looked at the Carolina team in last week. You know, I was on him a couple of weeks ago. They burned me, and I've been on the sidelines. I've watched the games the last couple of weeks. I haven't touched them since that stupid Seattle game in which they went up and down the field and found a way to lose. But when they lost to the Browns last week, I said,

all right, this is it. This is now totally hit the fork out, stick the picket in Carolina. We're gonna we're going against them. And then what do I do? But I pull my schedule book out, see who they're playing next week, and I'm gonna go back to an earlier game this year. Guys. I pulled it out, and I brought out the al Pacino line from you know, Scarface, just what I thought I was out, pull me back in and it was the New York Giants and we got to win with that game. If you remember, And

what did I say? It's a team that's in total disarray. Their garbage there. You know you can't play them, but it's a Monday night game, prime time. They don't want to be embarrassed. Uh. The same thing applies here to Carolina. This is the last game that you can even consider looking at them this season. If they lose this game, just go ahead right now and bet the advanced line for next week when they go to Atlanta will get your When Atlanta comes to town, we'll lose the game

out right. Uh, this is a team that this is it in Riverboat Ron can use his Moniker all he mounts and this one because they're the underdog, they're given no shot to win this game. Um really no pressure. Yeah, there's pressure that they technically can still get to the playoffs. They're only half game behind in Minnesota. Looks like they're in free fall right now and all of that. But what do you have to lose? It's fourth and two,

go for it. You're down one at the end of the game after scoring a touchdown, go ahead, go for two again. You know what, I'll take the points here. You know that's it. Yeah, live it up, Run, because you're gonna be gone at the end of the season when you missed the playoffs. I don't know if I said this on this show or on Visa on a Numbers game, but Riverboat Run. There's been situations this year,

notably the Detroit game where they lost by point. He went, he elected to go for two at the end where I almost feel like his nickname made him go for it right, Like it's almost a self fulfilling prophecy, like he's like, well, I gotta live up to Riverboats. I'm gonna go for it here for no reason whatsoever. And then I also think that he's gotten to the point where he's Dusty Baker. And so what I mean by

that is Dusty Baker. A lot of us like to kill Dusty Baker for always making the wrong moves in a baseball game as a manager. But Dusty Baker's got to the point now where even when he makes the right move sometimes it just doesn't work out for him. When he was a manager, that is, And I think Ron Riverboat ron Is at that point, so he's like, you know, he goes for it when he shouldn't and then when he does the right thing, like Graham Gono Shanks one, I just think he's that guy right now.

Ace your thoughts here on this game? Why the way it should be noted Saints last week against the Bucks, first half they ran the ball nine times for just three yards. That was a little off. Now they stuck with it, which I like, and they finished with a hundred yards on thirty attempts. But that was a really slow start after a really bad game a week before and Thanksgiving against the Uh not on Thanksgiving, but the Thursday, the previous Thursday against the Cowboys. So the Saints had

about three halves of ridiculous football. We'll see if that ever rears its head again. How do you feel here? Yeah, I mean this is uh one of those games where again you know who a better team is and it appears they're in opposite trajectories. But like we say, I mean, when you when you talk about betting sports, the points beer becomes a great equalizer, um. And how much better is one team than the other? Um? Now we're looking

at two teams that really know each other well. And the bottom line with the Saints is this as good as they have looked, meaning they're ten and one straight up and against the spread in their last eleven games. UM. They haven't looked all that great in the last three. In fact, they got really lucky to cover against Tampa Bay, a game they were down fourteen three in UM and they've only averaging a little over two hundred sixty yards a game over the last three. So this high powered

offense UM has been slowed down a little bit. Personally, because I have a lot invested in the Saints future, I would like to see them lose the game in the regular season as opposed to going into the playoffs on a run. UM. I just think it's good to refocus the team. I they it happened at Dallas UM and that three point loss, But again I didn't like how they responded against Tampa Bay, falling behind like they

did UM, turning the ball over even lost the turnover battles. Personally, I think this may be a little too many points, and I agree with Marco. I mean, sure, Carolinas uh alive mathematically, UM, but they're kind of in a low law situation. I mean, it's prime time game, it's it's a divisional rival, and let's not forget more important than anything else. These two teams played each other three times

last year, three times. Saints won all three games against them, um, including playoff revenge for Carolina losing last January in New Orleans as six and a half point dogs in New Orleans lost that game by five. If you remember, uh, so again, I mean, there's a lot for Carolina as far as liking the situation they're in and not liking again the objectory they've been in the last five weeks. But with that said, they've just found ways to lose games.

They haven't been getting blown out. Other than that Pittsburgh de buncle. The loss of Detroit was by one. The loss of Seattle was by field goal by Campbell one score, Cleveland one score. Granted, all those games were very winnable. UM. With that said, if you look at the point spreads in those games, it's not like they were big favorites in any of them. I mean, they were a one point favorite in Cleveland, they were a three point favorite against Seattle. UM. You know, so again, they have been

playing close games. I think six and a half I like that, and I leaned under also. Um again, the Saints, you think high, high profile offense and all that, but they have not been an over machine. They're they're five and eight to the under. In fact, you know a team that averages thirty five points a game is cashing under tickets because it's total is too high. I mean, look over their last four games, you have two totals that are fifty five or higher, one that was sixty one.

It's pretty hard to hit these numbers. Man. With one thing about the NFL betting markets, it's extremely efficient, and we saw a lot of high scoring games early. Well guess what now we're seeing a lot of high totals late and not too short, These games are gonna keep flying over. So again I like the points with Carolina and I like the under as well too. So that's where my mind is right now, taking the points of Carolina six and a half. Taking the under in this one.

Should be noted that really weird scheduling anomaly. The Panthers and Saints have not played yet this year division opponents, so they've got two games against each other here last three weeks. So it's home for Carolina at New Orleans, then a game at home against Atlanta followed by at

New Orleans. So best case scenario for Carolina here in their pursuit of the number two wild card position, which again they're only a half game out of right now, is that they figure out a way to get the win here and then somehow that last game means nothing to New Orleans, so they would need a Rams loss at some point to for that to be the case.

And then Carolina, you know, would be a very credible thing to say they could win all three of their last games, but gotta get past this one first, that's for sure, and that's a tall order. Sunday night, it's Philadelphia at the Rams. This is now at eleven eleven and a half consensus somewhere in that pocket. It's up

from nine and a half. The reason for that is that Carson Wentz underwent a scan on his back on Wednesday that was inconclusive and was scheduled to undergo an m r I today Thursday to help diagnose an issue that has plagued him for several weeks. That according to Adam Schefter over at ESPN, either way, it appears that Wentz is unlikely to play in this game against the Rams. NFL Network first reported that that he was unlikely to play.

There is a scenario where Carson Wentz doesn't play anymore this year at all, especially if the Eagles, and very likely the Eagles are eliminated this week. Eagles coach Doug Peterson saying that Wentz was experiencing soreness and tightness in his back and woulden practice in his stead, will be Super Bowl champion Nick Foles. Rams favored by eleven and a half. I've got nothing else to add, Marco. Yeah, this is that you're paying a price for the Rams, who are going to be coming home in a very

angry mood. And last week the Bears made Jared Goff looked like Jared Goff under the direction of Jeff Fisher. I mean, he was horrible, horrible, four interceptions. That defense just absolutely dominated the game. Uh, doesn't have to worry about that this week. Last week, Philadelphia probably the most misleading score of the weekend. You know what goes into overtime, and everybody that had Philly at plus three and a half was screaming, I got ever opted overtime, and you

know you did. You shouldn't even have been in overtime. Okay, come on, when you give up five hundred and seventy five yards of offense and the team that had all of that offense turned the botrow over three times, you know you were lucky, you were even in the zip

code of that game. So let's forget about all of that non it And really, I gotta tell you if Dallas could put up those kind of numbers last week in what was literally a playoff atmosphere, because if Philadelphia would have won that game, Philadelphia was in control of their own destiny to make the playoffs. Now you know

they're in deep, you know what with that loss. Now they're going to play an angry Rams team that after pounding their heads against that brick wall known as the Chicago Bear defense for four quarters last Sunday, They're gonna look at this defense and they're gonna think they're running through Swiss cheese this week. I don't want to lay all those points, but what I will play, and it's

you know, it's the ultra square play. But man, how many times have we sat here on this podcast and talk about a prime time game and said, uh, this is too square. I can't take the over I'll try to sweat through the under. Now. Now, I'm not gonna do that. If I get involved in this game, it's the over and that's the only way I possibly play this. You know the Rams are going to be in an angry mood. You know they're gonna want to put up

points this week. And this is a team prior to last week that's put up thirty five or thirty thirty five, thirty six, fifty four points in the last uh four games. I look for them to come back and score this week and then just keep scoring in Philadelphia. They should get some points because this is not a stellar Rams defense, and find a way to get this thing over. The total two fifty two and a half somewhere in that pocket on the total right now, which is down from

an opener of fifty four and a half. And last weekend. Let me just give the caveat for Eagles fans and Eagles backers. The opening kickoff that the Eagles recovered the fumble on just completely a travesty and a miscarriage of justice on a football field. Completely get it. The seventy five yard or to tight end Dallas Goddard that was whistled for a phantom offensive p I was maybe the worst thing I've ever seen on a football field. And then yes, there were makeup calls on Randy Gregory and

later in the game on Zeke Elliott. There the officials, almost recognizing their error, did everything they could do in their power to to allow the Eagles to matriculated back and score anyway after the Dallas got her miscarriaged justice. But there's nothing that makes up for a seventy five yard flag like that that just comes out of nowhere. It just so happened. The Eagles were will score. But DeMarco's point, all of that said, Eagles were out gamed

two thirty three to seventy before halftime. That's a first half stat But let me give you the full game stats. That box score was just ridiculous and it went into overtime as we know. But Dak through for four fifty five forty two of fifty four for four fifty five against the Eagles. Zeke gained a hundred fourteen on the ground, twelve catches seventy nine a Marii ten catches for to

seventeen and three touchdowns. Total yards for the game was five seventy six to two, fifty six to twenty two through the year one forty two to thirty four on the ground, nine d three total plays for the Cowboys, forty eight for the Eagles. Cowboys were eight of sixteen on third downs, the Eagles were one of nine. But it really came down to Dallas miscuse. Dallas was minus two in turnovers and they committed eleven penalties for a hundred eleven yards. That went a long way towards keeping

the Eagles in the game time of possession. In that game, time possession doesn't always matter, but in this game it was interesting. Forty eight Remember it went and overtime and Dallas almost used the entire overtime. But eight for the Cowboys twenty two thirty two for the Eagles. Your thoughts, Yeah, I mean, it's a tough to back Eagles in this spot after that loss to the Dallas Cowboys because so

much was on the line. But if there's one thing with the Philadelphia Eagles this season that's been pretty easy to predict, um, if they run the football, they have success. I mean they cannot win or cover games if they don't have success running the football. And real quickly, what I mean by that is, against Carolina, they ran for fifty eight yards, lost the game straight up and against

the spread. Against Dallas the time ran for only seventy one yards, lost the game straight up and against the spread. Against New Orleans fifty eight yards, lost the game straight up against the spread, and then last week against Dallas thirty four yards lost the game against the spread and straight up. Over the last seven games, the three games they did win Jacksonville Giants, Washington. What all three games have in common they rushed for over or more yards

per game. If they run the football, the Eagles could win and you could run on the l a rams. That's the bottom line. This is a defense that allows five point one yards per rush, so they will have some success. And with when it's going down, you know me, that's usually the perfect storm for added value. The betting market always overreacts to injuries, suspensions, weather, and once it's factored into the betting line, it's useless information. And more importantly, again,

the overreaction adds line value. The only thing I want to add with this matchup is the fact we know when Philadelphia this has happened before, and when Wentz went down, they went on to win a Super Bowl, so the reaction may not be as drastic as with other teams, meaning the overreaction. With that said, I still think double digits you've got to look to Philadelphia or leave the game alone. And I get it. You know, we talked

about this a lot. I hear the conversations in sports betting forums everywhere, UM and and on talk shows that were they about how double digit favorites are doing in the NFL of late. You know, over the last five years they've been money makers. You look over a larger sample size ten years they have it. What do you pay attention recently or the bigger sample size? That's an argument who's gonna win? You know? Um Granted, if you've bet them lately, you've made money, But if you've done

it over the last twenty years, you haven't. So what do you do going forward? Time will tell. But I think game by game you gotta look at it individually. And I think that's just way too many points. I don't like that. I disagree with Marco on the total and the only reason is this, man, you're looking at two under teams. I mean that the books have done

a really good job. They've done a phenomenal job. Obviously you're gonna pay a premium for Super Bowl champions, no surprise Philadelphias four and nine against the spread, But the fact that the Rams are eleven and two straight up and only five and six against the spread, you haven't made money on them. Books. Have this team figured out pretty good. I mean, they've done a good job of not letting the Rams hurt them, and here you are

again forced to lay a big price with them. UM. I lean Philly, and again I think the totals a little bit too high. These two teams scored seventy eight points last time they played. UM. Granted, not the same defense, especially on the Eagles side of the ball as last year, so I could see why the adjustment. I don't think it should be that significant. Last year's total was forty seven. We're looking at a touchdown difference this season. I think it's a little bit too high. I like the under also,

but I like the points with the Eagles more. I haven't bet the game either way, but if it was going on tonight, that's decide. I'd be looking at. The best thing going for the Rams here is that this is at home and not in cold weather have you ever seen a quarterback just go into the tank like cold weather is kryptonite for Jared Golf like I've never seen it be for any other quarterback in quite the

same way. Twenty forty four credits to the Bears defense as well, but from the outset, Jared Goff just looked like he did not want to be there. Four no touchdowns, four picks, sack three times. That was a career high four picks. His passer rating is that of a hundred fifty eight point three is nineteen point one. And if Sean McVeigh can remember that Todd Gurley's is running back, because that's the other thing, that's the only weakness of

Sean mcveigh's. Sometimes he just forgets he has Girle. Eleven carries for Girley in that game the other night for twenty eight yards the magic number for Gurley. Michael Lombardi always throws this out on visa. Seventeen carries. You get seventeen carries out of Todd Gurley. They never lose, but it was a game. You know, people can say, oh,

they clinched. The NFC West home field, especially this year, is everything, especially in the NFC, Like in the NFC playoffs, and right now again the Saints hold the tiebreaker, so even if the Ms went out, they got to hope for a Saint's loss in the NFC NFC Championship. I can see the Saints maybe going into l A and beating the Rams. I just don't see the Rams going into the New Orleans and beating the Saints. I really don't.

So that game to me, meant everything to the Rams the other night, they didn't look like they had any interest in being there. I think it might actually be a good thing for the Eagles to have Nick Foles going in this game instead of Carson wentz Um. I think it would have been really hard for Philadelphia to get up off the mat and show up for this game after the way they lost at Dallas last week, and you know, their hopes of winning the division basically done.

But but Foles kind of opens up a new story or an angle. And of course, as you say, Gil, this is a guy who led them to their Super Bowl victory last year. So I think it's a little bit of a spin on the fallen hero theory, the team rallying together after their guy has gone down. But at the same time, the replacement is a hero that took them all the way, So you could almost not have a better turn of events if you're an Eagles

fan for this game, for this game only. I'm not sure if that will hold true after this Sunday, but in this spot, I think it gives them a reason to show up and possibly some inspiration with with Folds at the controls, I think it would have been really, really easy to fade the Eagles this week off of that last game. And maybe this is maybe that's a little bit of an overreaction, but I think now you have reason not to fade them. And in my opinion, the lines too high whence Folds, I I really don't

think it makes a difference. It's too high. I I made it eight and it came out nine and a half. Now it's ten and a half or eleven. Um, my numbers have the Rams winning this game by half that four to six points, depending on how you account for the change at quarterback. And I haven't made a play on this game yet, but uh, I think there's only one way you can look here. And why are the Rams favored by by eleven when Dallas was favored by three and a half last week, Okay, And in truth,

they really won that game by three points. You know, the deflection turns it into a six point win. And you guys make all great points about you know, the the discrepancy and yards gained. But you know, if that's truly a three point game, why are the Rams favored by eleven here? And I think that you can argue that Los Angeles has less of a home field advantage than Dallas, So Philly or nothing here for me. Uh As far as the side, I just think it's too

many points. And again, I think Folds is actually kind of a good thing that gives this team a little bit of a lift. Who would otherwise just you know, be pretty much riding the season off at this point. And and Marco, I think you make a good point about the over two. Certainly Philly has no defense and the Rams should be able to go up and down the field. But with Folds in the lineup, I think Philly will show up and put some points on the board.

Maybe a Mini contest pick on the Eagles, Brady as the Mini contest kicks off this for the Super Contest last three weeks. Maybe No, No, I'm not I'm not that dead set or don't feel that confident in the pick. But you know, I would have to take the points if I did play the game. As I like to say, You're not George Costanza in your way to the ticket window. You're not pushing the women and children out of the

way during a fire. I understand. Well, I mean it's a theory that Nick Foles might give this team a little bit of a lift. But I don't know if you know a whole lot about this Philly team that you guys pointed out, they were pretty darn lucky to be even closed last week. There's been a number of spots where I've looked at them as a good spot to back them this season, and they've really failed to deliver a number of times. So not high on my list to go backing them again. All right, let's go

to Sunday daytime. Ace, you got DIBs. Yeah, and again, I had to lose the last week. And this is not by any chance, uh pat on the back or or like saying I had a great week. But this is just a perfect example of we have a snore group.

That's there are demographic guys like us, guys that bet and The best way I could put it is, this is a perfect example of why there's no such thing as going on the internet and looking for that one lock and having that one game that can't lose and searching for that game of the year type nonsense that doesn't exist because last week I went nine and one on my bets and the one that I lost was the one I gave out on this podcast and the best,

and I give out bigger bets here. Honestly, I bet everything. I'll say, Like, my bet spread is the same since I'm betting five hundred my best bets, I'll put one and a half x. The two X is the most I'll go is two X. So if I have a five average bet, my best bet will be a thousand. That you know it's the most will be um. But with that said, can you can you do us a favor? Can you go one and nine this week and make the one the one that you get? Right? Yeah, exactly right,

Let's see. No, that's just it would that matter more? You know what I mean? Like, that's why gotta be cautious. Man. We all want that one game that's not gonna lose, But there's just so much randomness in in that sixty minute football game. But I'm gonna go ahead and I'm gonna give you a game again that I already bet. I already put one and a half X, probably gonna go to two X by the time the week's over. Um,

And that's San Francisco over to Seattle Seahawks. Um. I took plus six when the line opened, and that's why I have won and a half X. And I'm gonna go to two X because I think I'm taking plus four now. UM, I think there's still value at plus four as long as I'm getting more than the field goal. I like San Francisco. Listen, Seattle looked great of late, but if you really dig in, it's a team that's been out gained in five of their last six wins. If you look at the game they played against Seattle

San Francisco just two weeks ago, not even ten days ago. Um, you look at that game, San Francisco held the ball for five minutes longer, had more first downs through for almost four hundred yards compared totally a hundred and sixty

yards um through the air for Seattle. The problem is turnovers, and two of the turn of the three turnovers were fumbles, and we know when a fumble, when the ball hits the ground, it's random who's gonna pick it up once it hits The fact that they dropped they fumbled twice, and twice Seattle got it, it's hard to recover from that. So they're minus three turnovers in that game, even though statistically they played a very good game. Um So, again, I think this line now is just it opened too high,

and I still think it's high. The Seattle team now if you're starting to pay that premium that wild card must win situation, and um you know, I think Teddy Cover said it best when he said teams are in must win situations because they have they've been mediocre all season. You know, if you've been winning and the Saints aren't in must win situations, you know, I mean, Rams aren't in must win situations. Granted, if you want home field advantage, there's still things to play for, but it is in

a must win you're in the playoffs. Um So, if a teams in a must win that their mediocre of best. And again Seattle is coming in having covered all these games in a row, but those are games they could have lost. Theseily, I mean against Green Bay against Carolina. So for me, I think this is an over valued Seattle team that's just gotten lucky. They haven't turned the ball over. I mean they've had one turnover over the

last three weeks. Um They've been creating turnovers, and I think it's about time San Francisco wins that turnover battle. I mean they have not forced the turnover since octobery against Arizona. They've gone five straight games without forcing the team to turn the ball over. I hope that changes someday because I got a lot of money on San Francisco. I like him at plus six, I like him at plus four. I'll sprinkle them all the way down the plus three. So give me San Francisco forty nine. There's

no team finer this Saturday. Give them to me. That's a sprinkle as well. Right there, San Francisco waiting right now plus three and a half as we do this on Thursday. Warning, by the way, really strange scheduling quirk. You have two Saturday games this week in addition to the Thursday night game between the Chargers and the Chiefs.

Houston's at the Jets, Cleveland's at Denver. Those are two Saturday games amongst five bowl games in college football, So of the remaining games that are on Sunday daytime, they

left only two games for the afternoon. So there's there's eight no nine early games in the NFL on Sunday nine, and then two in the afternoon Seattle at San Francisco, which is the one oh five Pacific four oh five Eastern kickoff, and then what amounts to a de facto standalone game with apologies to the Seahawks and the Niners unless you have money on them, New England at Pittsburgh. This weird, this weird thing, right, Like, why do they only have to four oh five you know, four o'clock games?

That I hate that, especially from a betting standpoint, that sucks, which they were more spread out, Brady, your choice of Sunday games there or Saturday? Uh yeah, or Saturday this week. I'm going to go with a real stinker here today, Gil. And by the way, there are some real stinkers I thought.

I thought last week provided like the most games on a Sunday all season that had these crazy exciting finishes either in determining an outright winner or involving the point spread, and then there was like four games, you know, out of what is their sixteen games, whatever, their fourteen games, there was like four games all day that were immediately like c SPAN two boring, while everything else it seemed,

was completely pure. You know, today's NFL down to the wire, last two minutes and in many cases down to the final seconds. And then this week, boy, on paper, there are some bad ones. How how dare you? How dare you insult our legislative process? It is very exciting, ready right right, I'm waiting for that documentary to come out on C SPAN. Would be awesome. No, I I'm gonna use one of those uh ugly games, and that is the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are

a pretty bad team, specifically really bad on defense. They rank twenty six in the NFL. Arizona is a really bad team specifically on offense, ranking dead last in the NFL. But the Cardinals defense is pretty good and they rank in the top half of the league on that side of the ball. And I don't mind having an underdog with a better defense that has a shot to win the game out right, And they did just that at lambeau Field. Two weeks ago, and the Packers, of course

just beat the Falcons. So simply by the transitive gentleman, the Cardinals beat the Falcons right well, seriously, they do get after the they get after the quarterback. They're very solid on third down defense, and their defensive passer rating is much better than Atlanta's. And when the Ravens beat Atlanta two weeks ago, they outyarded the Falcons three hundred and sixty six to one and thirty one, just a hundred and thirty one yards for this Falcons offense. And

obviously the Ravens defense is better than the Cardinals. But the point is, if a better defense can keep the Falcons offense down, Atlanta has nothing left they can't defend and if they can't score, their toast. And I also think this is a little bit like a college bowl game handicap. What what does Atlanta really have left in the tank? Okay? And then you have the Arizona Cardinals with a first year coach a rookie quarterback. They're trying

to improve, they're still trying to win games. They they they have something to play for and that's winning anything the Cardon or the Falcons rather uh, They're a team that's a perennial contender, a perennial powerhouse, who is horribly disappointed to be where they are at this point in

the season. And why do they care about this, you know, this playing this team that is awful when all they have possibly left to make anything positive about this season is to beat a couple of division opponents on deck in the final two weeks of the season. UH in the Panthers and UH, I think it's the Buccaneers that they play in the final game. I just think this

Arizona or the Falcons team is awful. I thought last week the Falcons against the Packers was one of the worst games on the slate with two teams again that have been horribly disappointing, two perennial contenders, UH, that have each won four games now the Packers five games after beating the Falcons last week. UM, and I just am

not ready to to back Atlanta. And what's funny is when I was getting this ready for this show, I saw all of a sudden, the team coming in on on the Falcons and now the spreads like up to ten. It was the same thing that UH with the game against the Ravens. Everybody thought that was the spot for the Falcons. What happened, They got blown out. I think they've got a chance to to lose this game outright as well. I made the number six and a half. It opened, I is nine and a half. It came

down to eight and a half. Now it's back up to ten even ten and a half. Um. As ugly as this is and as hard as it is to back the Cardinals, I don't think Atlantic can lay more than a touchdown to anybody. They've won four games a season, they've lost four at home. Give me the points and ace, go ahead, do the honors. Sprinkle it, baby freckle, oh man, Arizona Arizona plus nine and a half. The Falcons are that bad man. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost

the game. Uh. That capsule had everything in it, Brady, I appreciate it. It It had C span two and had the transitive property of geometry in there. You said the word out yarded, which is always a favorite of mine, and all about a ship show of a football game. So we really appreciate that. Arizona at Atlanta, UH, one of these games this week along with say Washington at Jacksonville, Oakland at Cincinnati, Detroit at Buffalo. You know these games

are just awful unless you're betting on them. That's the Uh, that's the great Tonic Marco. What you got on Sunday, Well, I'm gonna sound like Ace here and say I love the Sunday Card. I had four different teams penciled in for what I was gonna do on the show. For the best bet, and the one that I was not gonna use, I'm gonna use because I was, you know, saving this for later in the week, Uh, on my

premium phones, which will probably still be there. Uh, because I like the game and it's Christmas time right now. There's no team in the NFL that nobody wants any part of, more so than my Pittsburgh Steelers. They've lost three in a row. In guys, you want to understand why I am bald and I have high blood pressure, well just look at the steelers last three games. Think about this for a second. All three games were decided in the final twenty seconds, either by a game winning

scorer or a game saving turnover. All three games. You go back to the Denver game, Ben throws the interception to the right at the goal line when they're they're going in for the win. Uh, you go to the or I should say, for the tie, you go to the Charger game comes down to not one, not to, but three field goal attempts before the Chargers finally get it through the uprights at the end of the game

on the final play the game. And then last week in Oakland, they get down there, Juju almost breaks it all the way in for the score for the win, but goes out of bounds with five seconds left. No problem, let's bring in Boswell kick the field goal, go to over time. No, they're playing on a freaking cow pastor at the unbelievable you know, and I sent it out, you know, the picture of him slipping with his plant foot and said the Steelers season slipping away and it us.

But you know what, they're back home and they're facing the New England Patriots, and you know what last week and why nobody really ripped him. If if Todmlin would have did what Belichick did on the final play of the game, we would still be talking about it stopped. Okay, Belichick made a colossal air. He doesn't make many. You know, you probably can count on one hand, and have fingers left over the last five years mistakes he's made. But having Gronk on the field for the final play of

the game was just stupid. He always puts them there for the hell mary play. And I agree without a hundred percent. He's a receiver that can go up and muscle for the rebound. He's got you know, tall wingsprand with him knows how to catch the football. Obviously, yes, a hundred percent you put him on the field. There weren't the thirty yard line. Daniel couldn't throw it into the end zone from the thirty yard line in any lifetime. Okay, not going to reach the end zone wasn't a hell

merry situation. And he was a liability on the field. And who, by the way, missed the final tackle but Gronk, And because he's Belichick. Oh well, okay, it's all right, you know, colossal blunder. Let's look at the scheduling. First of all, all year long, New England has not been the same team on the road this year. They got

drilled at Jacksonville early in the season. Yeah, that was the big revenge game for Jacksonville and everything, and they came to play and Blake bortles out a marvelous game. Uh so, yeah, Blake bortles through for three seventy seven. Where's Blake Bortles now on the bench. They lose the next very next week to Detroit. Then you go to the Chicago game. They win the Chicago game, but they only won that game thanks to the blunders of the Bears. The Bears put up thirty one points against them. New

England had a couple of special team plays. Then they played that boring Monday night game. Yeah, they wont to cover against Buffalo. Do you remember they brought Derek Anderson. I think they pulled him off a garbage truck or something and put him in the lineup. And they needed a pick six to secure the point spread cover. They got Railroad. They got railroaded in Tennessee the Jet game, no quarterback. They had to have a pick six late in that one to get the cover as well, or

I think any interception to save it. Uh And then we saw what happened last week in Miami. Yet was the last play of the game. They shouldn't have lost the game, but they weren't covering the game, and every time they scored Miami answer, did they give up thirty four points to Tannehill. The other unique part about the schedule for New England this year, every time they played on the road, they played back to back road games. They've never had a home in a way back home.

All of the matchups this year have been in pairs. And this is gonna be their fourth road game in five weeks. Nobody's talking about that. That's a horrible scheduling spot. Talk about revenge games. This is the mother of all revenge games for the Steelers because the Steelers lost that game last year on the Jesse James controversial call. That should have been a to you know the score for the Steelers and win the game, but no, New England

got it. And I think that game cost the Steelers twice because I think that's the reason the Steelers lost the playoff game to Jacksonville last year. All they were talking about and thinking about was playing New England the very next week in the revenge Well, they didn't get their chaots for revenge last year. They get it now and last week in Oakland, horrible scheduling spot for Pittsburgh go to Oakland when they had this game on deck and after the Sunday night game against the Chargers, I'm

gonna go with Pittsburgh gear. Everybody is looking at New England. I Ben's gonna be able to score. And how about how guts he Ben coming back in the game. My question is will come back again? Yeah? Tomlin, what are you doing? Okay? Yeah? You know anytime you're gonna take Tomlin versus Belichick, it's a coaching mismatch. I gotta give that part of it up. And I know that Belichick.

It seems like every year he comes to town in December with that stupid freaking hoodie and if you just have a green hoodie, because for me, he's the grinch that steals my Christmas every freaking December. Well, it's a Christmas miracle this year, Steelers win this game. Ben's gonna get it out. Juju is gonna go nuts, A. B's gonna get his Connor will be back. But hey, again,

let's look at the system in the offensive line. Steelers really didn't have any problems at running back last week, and that was the third string quarterback or third string running back at the start of the season. I'll go ahead and take new An. I'll take my Steelers against New England, one team's favorite. I'm sorry. I'm so glad you picked this game, and I have so much to talk about. I wish I was taking notes because I'll inevitably forget something here. One, You're right about Bill Belichick

against the Dolphins. The Miami miracle, for sure, and even more so than that, Tom Brady taking a sack at the end of the first half which cost the steel which cost the Patriots, uh left them with zero points there on that drive. And at the end of the game, right before the Miami Miracle, New England decides to kick a field goal to go up five and kick off. They could have opted to just run the ball and try to score touchdown, and even if they fail, they

pin Miami back at the one yard line. Now, I'm not saying that's wrong, but to Marco's point, if all of those things happened to I don't know the Cowboys under Jason Garrett or the Chargers under Anthony Lynn, we murder them, right, Bill Belichick, even the great Bill Belichick, deserves some criticism, and that was not his finest hour, to say the least, as far as Pittsburgh's concerned. Ben Roethlisberger. I completely agree with you. At the end of that

game was very strange. It was almost like Tomlin decided, well, if it gets dire, that's when we'll put in big Ben and it's Sir god Dyer and then like, all right, I guess he'll play. And then you know, as it proved, it was too little, too late because Boswell slipped on the on the turf. As you mentioned. The other thing I just want to mention is this, and I'm with you, Marco. I will be heavy on the Steelers. I was guessing

lines on Monday morning. There was no line on this because we didn't know about Big Ben at that time. I thought Pittsburgh would be favored. I really did. I was very shocked to see and Vinny told me Vinnie Moley Luis said, don't be surprised of New England's favorite. New England was favored by one when it came out. It is already two and a half. I do not agree with this move at all. Like for all the reasons you stayed, I will be all about the Steelers.

I'll be teasing them, I'll be playing them straight, I'll be playing them on the money line. I am all over the Steelers here as well. Glad you picked that game. Um let us do a Thursday night talk here because this potentially is a great game between the Chargers and the Chiefs. Before we do that, as always, remember that support for the show is brought to you by Bookmaker dot Eu. They've been an industry leader for close to

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up to three hundred dollars. I swear by Bookmaker. I don't know what I would do without him. Bookmaker dot e slash gil let's gil with two els, Join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars. Thank me later. Can't wait to bed on tonight's game live pre flop every which way. I'm all about the charges here tonight, the three and a half point dogs. I do not believe in the Chiefs right now. Without Kareem Hunt, they will not have Spencer Wear tonight either.

Both teams will be down to the third string running backs. Williams for the Chiefs, Jackson for the Chargers. We've seen Jackson, justin Jackson, He's been good. I just don't believe when the line doesn't change from Kareem Hump to Spencer Wear let alone to a third string, I don't believe it. I believe it in the running game, I believe there's not much of a downgrade. But in the passing game,

you cannot tell me the Chiefs are as good. And I've purchased, I've I've loaded up on some Chargers futures here for the a f C. I truly believe they are the sneaky team. I think they're the most balanced team in the a f C. And they're a team that has no home really, so I don't care if they're on the road now with futures. Keep in mind, it's more profitable if you just bet them game by game in the playoffs. But I got them at plus

seven or plus seven ten seven and one. Those are long gone for the a f C. Your thoughts on this game tonight, Brady will start with you. What are you thinking? Yeah, I'm with you, Gil. I have some money invested in the Charger's future as well, and I'm in that neighborhood of seven or eight to one. I

got them a while back. Uh. We know the Charges have had this game circled for some time now, but I think they can use that game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago to kind of calm their nerves a bit and maybe kind of go with a been there, done that, you know, act like a champion type mentality and not crumble under the pressure that this game would normally present. You know, they went into a hostile environment in prime time in Pittsburgh, never panicked,

won that ball game. I think that really gives them a huge boost going into a very similar situation here tonight. I really hope they win the game out right. Um, I think three and a hook as a play. I made the line three. I wouldn't be surprised if it closes at three. Go bolts, Go bolts. By the way, the Chargers have called up a practice squad running back as well, So it looks like Melvin Gordon is out, even though they're officially leaving that open. Looks like it's

gonna happen. It looks like they're being clement weather. When you look at the forecast yesterday, not so bad anymore, Mac, Yeah, I gotta look at the Chargers as well. Uh, live dog here. This is a team it's been you go back to the end of last season and what they've done this year. Uh, they're, you know, one of the

winningest teams in the NFL. Kansas City. I will give them credit and give Pat Mahomes those two fourth down plays, especially uh, the second to last one where he scrambling all over the place and yet throws across the field across his blody and steel hits the guy I mean in stride didn't have to making an adjustment of any kind, hits him in stride, he'll for the fourth dound conversion. That play was you just this kid just continues to amaze me week after week. And that was against what was,

you know, the number one defense in the NFL. That part skill scares me. But I see this as a game that's gonna come down to the wire, gonna be a three point game. And if I'm thinking it's gonna be a three point game and there's a hook out there, there's only one way for me to do it. And grabbed that three and a half hooks everywhere. Still yeah, real quickly on my best bet for the week, Just so I could let the listeners know the way I

gave it out to my guys. Instead of patting like uh, like I said, I do everything from one hundred to a thousands, how I raped my my bets. Instead of doing this line like a lot a seven fifty or thousand, I gave a five hunter for the game five hundred

first half. That's how I like the limit risk once in a while, kind of like going to two hands in black jack, especially when you're able to get plus three in the first half and plus four were for a game right now plus three and a half and a lot of spots, but there's plus four is out there, but you can still get plus three in the first half, only minus one fifteen, even minus one ten in some spots. Just throwing that out there for tonight game, like this

is what makes my job so difficult. You know. It's not just looking into accounts seeing what guys that win long term are betting and passing that along because these guys don't agree a lot of times, and a lot of times I don't agree with them. Um. And this is a spot where as soon as this line came out in the accounts that I give out, the one group they've bet under fifty six and a half. Another group came in behind them. When it got the fifty five,

they still bet it under fifty five. Um. Then last night, while I was out to dinner, the total of fifty two and a half, and I started hearing all these pains. I look at my phone and it's two different groups now going over fifty two and a half. I wake up today it's at fifty four and a half. So what's the right side under fifty six or over fifty two? Time will tell um. I was looking at the Chargers too. You know how I feel about Kansas City. I still

think they're overvalued. Um again when they've stepped up, they've lost against teams you know in New England, the Rams. Um is this a step up? I think? So with that said, what scares me is that at looking at at back end of a book right now, um that already has a lot of plays in public plays. It's pretty split, man, the the the action split. It's not

one sided as you may think with Kansas City money. Um. But the fact that this line was three minus fifteen and now it's three and a half, and it's not public money that really is behind it, because I'm telling you I'm not seeing one sided public money here anywhere. Um. It scares me a little bit because I like the Chargers as well. But that three and a half, man, and it's not the public that laying that half is

is what makes me pause a little bit. Yeah, Pinnacle Lean also suggesting, yeah, suggesting, hey give us money on the Chargers, but not what it used to be, Not what it used to be no, no, no, yeah, a right before we get to uh no, not before anything. Let's do it. Final two questions of the big favorites this week, and uh, I'm gonna make it six points are higher. Which is the one that you believe is

the most likely to lose? Outright? Saturday? The Houston Texans seven point road favorites, maybe six and a half on the road against the Jets. Scintillating football. Uh And then on Sunday, whole bunch of them. Chicago six point favorites at home against the Green Bay Packers. Baltimore seven and a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Atlanta nine and a half point favorites at home against Arizona. Minnesota seven and a half point favorites at home against Miama.

I can't believe there's some hooks out there in this game. I have no idea why Minnesota should be favored by more than seven in this ballgame. Jacksonville seven and a half point favorites against the Redskins. Kessler Josh Johnson Jaguars,

Redskins catch the fever? Sorry, got excited? Rams eleven and a half point favorites at home against the Eagles on Sunday, and then, as we mentioned, New Orleans six and a half point favorites on the road at Arolina, most likely to lose outright of those big favorites, Brady, I'm gonna go with the Ravens. I think Tampa Bay's got a shot. I made Yeah, I made this line seven and a half and it opened up eight and a half and I immediately took it as a play in a contest

that I'm in. Baltimore comes off of that great game with Kansas City. Marco, you talk about Mahomes, I mean, my goodness, what a ball game and what a player that guy has been. Um. I thought it was one of the better, one of the better football games I've watched all year. And they come up short. Um, And if it wasn't for Mahomes, you know, they probably win that game they should have wanted a couple of times. The Chiefs are able to escape some fourth down conversions there.

And what do they have up next is the Los Angeles Chargers in Los Angeles on the road. I think it's a tough spot for Baltimore. Their top ranked defense versus a top rated offense. I normally prefer to play the defensive side in a game like that. But again, I think the situation uh is not good for Ravens and the pressure is all on them. You talk about what was the Panthers game being footloose and fancy free. I think Campa Bay is carefree to and should play

a pretty good game. Joe Flacco backup quarterback now fully healthy, the hip is fine, and he is your backup quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens. Marco, I'm gonna go with one and this is gonna be one where I'm gonna put a disclaimer to it because they're either gonna win it or blowout or they're gonna lose the game out right. And that's the Chicago Bears this week. The spot is just so horrible. Last week, I'm sitting there, you know, just like I did with Caroline and say, okay, this

is a perfect situation. Now Carolina has done, I'm all excited to go against them, and then I see the schedule who they're playing well with Chicago. After that performance on Sunday night, I said, this is a young team. They're they're still learning how to win, and this was their statement game. Fat and Sassy comes into play and then I look and see who they're playing. Are playing Green Bay, They're hated rival. The game that they able way the first game of the season by twenty points.

But still that was such a huge win on Sunday Night because, yeah, they had a couple of other statement games this year, the division win on Sunday Night against Minnesota and so forth. But when they beat the Rams in the fashion that they beat the Rams on Sunday Night football, they told the world we are a legit contender for the Super Bowl. That's when I want to go against the team is when they hit that pinnacle mark, the high water mark, and this is you know, Aaron Rodgers.

They're either gonna stuff Aaron Rodgers if they come to play, or Aaron Rodgers are gonna pull his magic. I'm gonna go ahead and say Chicago as the team that can get upset. I think you're right, Mark. I agree there, but I'm gonna go listen. Number one, I think there's a couple of teams they could lose, so let's throw them out there. Carolina could beat the Saints at home um Miami against Minnesota because the simple reasoning, fuck that team.

I hate Minnesota that that that's the bottom line, just suck that team. Excellent reason, excellent reason. Thank you. That the best handicap I could give for them. That team gonna go Eagles, baby. At plus five hundred, I gotta go Philly. I don't think they should be a five

to one on their dog. Granted, you know, they haven't been moneymakers on the road of late I get it, um, But still, I just think if you look at power rating wise strictly power rating wise, Um, I think that the Carolina and New Orleans, I think Carolina could upset, but I think Philly is the most values getting five to one on the Philadelphia team. Man, I you know again, Rams haven't lost a single game at home, so you know, and Philly is two and four team on the road.

But just they're they're capable, you know. I mean, if they bring an AID game, Philly is capable of beating anybody. So I think getting that many at five to one to me as it was worth a little gamble. All right, let's keep it to ten seconds or less. What game do you want? No part of you live in a bizarro world, Brady. You have to make a side bet on everything but one. What's the past. This one's pretty easy.

Gil Washington and Jacksonville, you talked about it. I mean, I think by the numbers, the Redskins or the side you'd have to back. But how can you do that? I mean, I can't remember a team that's been more injured than this team. This is a really ugly game that the Jaguar is favored by seven and a half. Come on, I don't want any part of this one. Total at thirty six in today's NFL, that's uh. I think that's about a twenty seven in dog years and what it used to be. That's just so low. Marco

will game no part of bake it fast. It's better, and there's no part of me that will have any money in any shape or form on Washington Jacksonville. Direct TV allows you a screen with eight games. There are nine early games that this has to be the game that falls off the screen that they don't include yet. Throw the trifact, let's just go quickly. Same thing. I mean, the fact that went from six and a half through

seven now seven and a half. I don't know who had fall in love with Jacksonville, but I want nothing to do with that game. Yeah, they pitched a shutout. They pitched a show it out a couple of weeks ago, and what they do. They scored six. Now they're favored by seven and a half. Make it for that'd be that'd be the game. I'd include. That does it for us, gentlemen. Thank you as always, Marco, Ace Staples, pillars of the show. Thank you, guys, and Brady Cannon, our only return guests

of the year thus far, Super Contest Champion. Many Contest begins, Brady, Let's do this. Yeah, that's all we've got left, San Susy hoping for a dollar consolation prize. Let's do it. I'm not on the team, but I'm rooting for myself quite frankly, Marco, Marco, Marco, and Ace. I apologize. I didn't even give you guys a chance to say anything, but thank you guys, both of you seriously, always there

when you need him. Don't appreciate it, man. Let's do it, everybody, good luck on all your picks, and as always, thank you so much for listening.