Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 14 Preview

pool of score xers. That's the old stock market thing that I've been talking about, stock market football thing that I've been talking about for years and years on the show. Right now, in the lead, Profitable, Profitable is in the lead, and Profitable let me just say this, Profitable has extended his lead. I assume it's a him. I shouldn't assume that could be a she. I don't know what profitable is.

But Profitable is in the lead over thirty three percent of a portfolio gain for Profitable at the score x dot com. Congratulations, and it's a big lead at this point is the next closest portfolio gain. So the lead has extended. Profitable the Man Debate or the Woman Debate over at the score x dot com. Check it out. Great vehicle for sports spending on the show today, of course, is always the pillars of the show. Thirty nine years in the business. Marco d Angelo from Wager Talk. Good

morning Marco, Good morning, Gil. How are you today? I'm doing very well, Marco. Here's the story. I get texts from buddies of ours texting me the food you're eating before the megapod. Hey, this is a very tough show. You know. We gotta go Monday night, Sunday night, best that upset who I don't want to play, and then Thursday night and we do all that in an hour. I need to be properly Field, Yeah, good little where'd you go today? Was the restaurant of his restaurant, shoutout

pigs glorified ham and eggs. Pigs glorified ham and eggs. All right, never been but hey, it's so good, Gil. It's so good that Mark and I I didn't know the other one was going there, and we both were there. He was leaving as I was coming. Oh that wasn't planned. That was not planned. No, al right, by the way, because I you could tell I was searching frantically for the score X contest Danny's, which disappeared from my screen

as we were talking. But Profitable is up thirty three point one percent, Dio the Greek up twenty six percent, Top sch Left up seven percent, the Wick up twenty three point three percent, Liam Converse in fifth, up twenty two point five percent. So Profitable well in the lead on my left, out of the sports betting diaspora, Ladies and gentlemen as taste. All right, thanks for having me, brother.

You got another win last week, did you not? No, no, no no. I gave up Atlanta Atlanta yesterday, blunt weight. I'm sorry. Fortunately we agreed on Atlanta, but they did not come through. They did not come through. I was on them as well. Uh yeah, that was not good. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens getting themselves another win again. The conversation that's taking place between John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco goes a little something like this, Hey, Coach Harbaugh,

my hips fine, Uh no, it's not, Joe. You know, seriously, I'm ready to play. Actually, I think your hip still hurts. We're gonna go with Lamar this week and on the show for the first time ever. He hosts a podcast called The Better Life, and of course that's spelled b E T T O R. We'll get an explanation from him just on what that's about. Specifically, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Tim Lawson. Good morning, Tim, Hello Gil.

Thank you so much for for thinking of me. It's it's exciting after listening to the show for so long to now be a contributing member. So yeah, I do appreciate the opportunity. Yes, and Tim for for those who didn't don't know. Off air, just before the show, he was like, oh my god, my self is so excited right now. And I'm like, oh, it's so like your current self doesn't really give And he's like, well, just just a little different, is what he was saying. It's yeah,

it's a little different. What's the Better Life about? So?

The Better Life launched just under a year ago as a podcast about gambling and more more uh more, specifically the betters that are that are living this life as gamblers, and uh we learned about a gamblers sort of how they were first exposed to gambling, their for their the first bets they may have may knew their first visit to casino whatever their games of choice are, whether it's sports, betting, poker, table games, whatever it may be, slots, video poker, um.

And then sort of learned about like how their family responded, what their what their approach to playing is now, and um and and and in the midst of all that, we still have conversations with sort of in general about about gambling, but the real focus of the show is to learn about the stories of gamblers, how they've developed as a gambler in uh, sort of just enjoying that discussion of recreational gambling that so much so many of us enjoy like it. You do have somebody on the

show coming up this weekend though, right, that's right. I was just before you hit record, I just mentioned that it's uh, this is really good timing on on on my my appearance here on the megapod, because in the next twenty four hours I will be releasing an interview that I did with with your with our own VR. So this is this is like you uncensored on this show a pretty much. I yeah, it was a little while back. We did it, you know, but I had a lot of fun, you know me. I love talking

this sports betting. Okay, yeah, so it was. It's the interview we recorded a little while back November. Got a little little busy formula. It actually worked out on sort of the timing and when it's gonna be released really excite a lot of people looking forward to that interview. And I think I think it's one of the um

you know we got. We got a lot of unique perspectives from people, but I think this is one that not a lot of This is a perspective that not a lot of people have heard about a person that a lot of people know. I like, yeah, I like it, Marco, You and me should tune into. Maybe we're gonna learn some about a said we didn't know. Also, the Better Life, Ace is not only a man of mystery now Aces everywhere. Just I just want to point that out. We've already sort of hinted at where as is Aces on Goalie

can Wingo. Ace got some UFC thing coming up big time, so we're very excited for him. So we'll check out the episode of the Better Life with haste this weekend, available where all podcasts are distributed. Let us begin with the Monday night game Gentlemen Minnesota at Seattle. This is a big game. Minnesota six five of one, Seattle is seven and five right now. If the playoffs were to start in the NFC, Seattle be the number one wild card,

Minnesota be the number two. So this has big time implications Seattle right now, A let's call the three point favorite across the board. Yeah, that's about right, three point favorite. Extra juice total in this game is forty five. Vikings coming off a loss, a fourteen point loss, I believe it was to the New England Patriots. Minnesota could not get the win. They could not get the cover. Typical

Kirk Cousins through a up the late picks. Uh, it's kind of what he does, some bad decision making, perhaps late not all his fault for sure. Uh. It is at New England, and those things happen when you face the Patriots. But Minnesota now in a year where they were expected to do oh so much, six five and one. It should be noted that case Kingdom no longer the Vikings quarterback six and six over in never not much

of a difference. And then there's Seattle. Seattle crushes the Niners last week, crushes them, and Russell Wilson just the model of efficiency eleven of seventeen for four touchdowns. Note picks in the first half. I just want to point this out. First half last week four completions, three for touchdowns sports Radar sport Radar, I should say Wilson throwing three touchdowns on four completions made for the fewest touchdowns per completion in a first half dating back to when

they first are able to get these stats. The previous low was six completions for three touchdowns. So this is just off the charts what he did last week. And that's just kind of how his season has been. Seattle favored by three total forty five tim your thoughts, well, uh, Gil I I originally prevail from the the Great Pacific Northwest, and uh and I am a huge Seahawks fan. It's the one thing that I that I have kept with me and all of my travels and moving stuff like that.

I've always been a Seahawks fan. And um, you know, going into this season, Seahawks fans in general, we were sort of we also, uh, we're sort of we're we weren't sort of agreeing with the narrative, but we accepted the narrative that the Seahawks probably weren't gonna be much this year, that this was gonna be a rebuilding year, uh, and that they were going to be they got written off really early in the season, like this is gonna be a competitive team, that we're not going to see

them in the playoffs. And then I think they've shocked everybody and how competitive they've been in their their ability to to be playoff to have a potential playoffs spot while being in a division that was clearly going to get be dominated by by the Rams Minnesota coming off that tough loss against our disappointing loss, I guess, or to say against the Patriots have to go all the way across the country to kind of go into Seattle and compete with a Seahawks team that is pumped about

where they are on their opportunity to really get one step further towards landing a wild card seed. All that said, though, uh, I don't know if I like either side enough to to to make a wager, but I am actually gonna be looking at some player props if you don't mind

me taking that angle. Yes, so the Seattle defense is pretty uh, it's it's it's efficient enough on running that are probably not gonna look towards anything on that, but they leave a little bit to be desired on their passing defense, and where they especially have tough difficulty is with the wide receiver one position. And so Adam Feeling was on fire for the first half of the season.

He has been uh since not quite as as potent as he has been, But I will be looking UH towards some Adam Feeling player props, specifically over under on receptions and over under on yards. Earlier, we've been seeing a lot of UH one five yards over under on on Adam Feeland. It's slowly going down as he UH as he's had a twenty eight yard game sixty six, twenty two. A lot of that because the Stefon Diggs

coming back and taking some of those targets. But um, I'm gonna be looking both at Adam Feeling and UH and Stefon Diggs on both receptions and yards, and I'm gonna see where the lines are gonna give, which players are going to give the most benefits, and try to take advantage of of taking an over on Adam Feeland on both receptions and yards. If if it if if the if the line's right, Tim by the way, wasn't that easy? Wasn't that good? Eight years in the making,

your first capsule on the show? Well done. It's like it's like you've been here the whole time, even adding a prop, Yeah, we was. I guess you'd say I'm looking towards Adam Feeling in the sense that I think Stefon Diggs was already gonna have too exaggerated a line because he is Stefon Diggs, and because theeland is coming off of three or four games that have been under sixty seven yards. So I think Feeling is probably where we're gonna not only get some value on the line,

but also have the opportunity to maybe break away. I mean his yards after catchers on real right, So, and I think the Seahawks may have a difficult than me a challenge containing that. So that he's the way I'm looking on on that. Valen stats are certainly that of a wide receiver one that's for sure. This year it's just been unbelievable. A little bit less in recent weeks, but um, just an amazing season for Feeling. Kirk Cousins last weekend defeat by the Way thirty two or two

oh one one touchdown, two picks, sacked twice. Against the Patriots, the Vikings were three for twelve on third downs. That was their achilles CeAl in that game against Patriots. Minnesota now has lost two of its past three. They entered that game against New England allowing the third fewest rushing yards in the league ninety three point six yards per game,

and then New England spread him out rushed for one sixty. Meanwhile, the Seahawks again against the Niners, they're just killing it and Bobby Wagner capping the blowout with a ninety eight yard interception return first to his career longest and franchise history. In that game, they held the Niners in check. Obviously, Seahawks have been on fire, Marco. They have just had an amazing run here against a really tough midseason schedule.

Here they get a break here down the stretch where they get the Niners without Garoppolo a couple of times, but Minnesota sandwiched in between here, good Monday night game. What you got it is a good Monday night game. But I'm gonna disagree with one thing you said. They're yeah, they're hot, but you talk about a tough schedule. Well, the tough schedule was the Rams, the Chargers, and the Rams, and they lost all three of those games. They lost

them all. Okay, the teams they've beaten, the only team that they've beaten in this seven and three run was Dallas and that was the third week of September, when Dallas's offense was non existent. May interrupt you, may interrupt you. They played the Packers, They played the Packers when the Packers are still viable. They they played the Panthers. Your casual, you're casually going past the Packers have a winning record. Oh now, we're only talking about teams with winning records. Now,

Oh got you? I believe you just out of that ahead. I'm sorry they did. But the fact is green Bay's four and six and Caroline is six and six. Not a winning record. They haven't beaten. The only team they've beaten the No. Seven right now that has a winning record is Dallas. That's the fact. I'm sorry. And for a numbers guy, don't you have a show that's you know something about numbers? Okay, alright, alright, well remembers don't mean anything, I guess. All right, but I'm looking at

Minnesota here and I'm not sold on Seattle. And believe me, I think Pete Carroll, with what he's had talent wise this year, you know, has done Coach of the Year type performance. But there's a couple other guys that are gonna overshadow him for sure. But he's done and I think one of his best coaching jobs this year getting the most out of the least because I mean, you look at that offense on paper, what they had at the beginning of the season, and go back to what

they lost on defense. Uh, this is a team that's definitely overachieved. Now we look at Minnesota and again the Sharks lined up on him against New England last week and Brady and uh Belichick did what they always do. But that game, once again was a kai game late in the third quarter, and then New England did what they did. They got two scores. Kirk Cousins, you know, has his you know turnover. You can always count on him at least one bad one a game and they

lose the game. But I look at this one here, and although both teams are in the playoffs right now, if Minnesota loses this one, the season is over as far as any hope for the division UM and it's a it was a slim shot as it was, but they do get Chicago at home the final game of the season. They still had hope there. But if they lose this one, it's done. Not only that, but then they fall into that big pief of teams trying to get that last wild card spot and they don't have

the tiebreaker against some of them. This is a spot where I'm looking for Minnesota and Kirk Cousins to finally deliver a big game performance in a big game. That's the one thing we haven't seen from Kirk Cousins, and that's the knock on them. But this is still a top defense. They're not what they were last year, but there are number seven defense and yards per play UH, number five in UM, yards per rush, UH, number seven,

I believe in total yards rushing. And the reason why I keep honing in on the rushing is FICTI to Seattle has been when they get the running game going, look at this, As you said last week, the pass is just to complement the running game. They have been putting up big numbers on the ground. If they don't do that this week against this Minnesota defense, I think you're gonna see the Seattle offense bogged out. I like Minnesota. I'm gonna go with the old adage take the better

defense getting and I'll take the Vikings. And they're still are three and a half out there that I think, if you what Minnesota it, you need to grab it now because I think Monday it's gonna be solid threes. When the season first started, though, I often talked about the Giants first seven games of the season being a gauntlet, and in fact, that's what it was, and the Giants

went one in six in those first seven games. The other team that we talked about was at the end of the season that the Seahawks last nine games were the gauntlet that they absolutely we're gonna get crush because think about this before the season, here's what, here's what. Their last nine games was home Chargers at Rams, home Packers at Panthers, home Niners, Garoppolo home Vikings at Niners, Garoppolo home Chiefs before ending with the Cardinals. So really

eight out of their last nine. But the Garoppolo injury happened all of a sudden, those two games got far easier, to say the least, and then they started they loose to the Charges, and they loose to the Rams, but then they beat a four four and one Packers. They beat the Panthers on that ridiculous end of game sequence where the Panthers just couldn't get it done and Russell

Wilson just made an unbelievable worth down past. So that's really I mean, you talk about having this ridiculously hard schedule and things not only breaking your way in terms of opponent injuries, but then winning a couple of those in dramatic fashion. And remember the refs helped out in that Packers game, like how Bobby Wagner wasn't whistled for a clothesline pass interference and like Toryo was like, yeah, you can't call that. I'm like, in what world can't

you call that? Like what are you talking about? But anyway, Russell Wilson, the genius, the magic of Russell Wilson's an amazing season I think for the Seahawks. But you'll take the three and a half with the Vikings for all the reasons you stated ace all right, well, it's pretty simple why Seattle is so good this year against the spread. If you remember, coming into this season, both these teams

are surprising us. And what I mean by that is Minnesota got bet over if you remember that season win total open nine and a half got bet up to ten over. So there was a lot of anticipation for Minnesota to take over that division and you know, represent them in the playoffs. And on the flip side of that, you look at sea Attle. Not only did they come out with the eight under favored, but it got that

down the seven and a half under favor. This is a team that wasn't even expected to be, you know, an eight and eight football team with Seattle, and the fact that they're getting it done is impressive. But I mean, we know that in the NFL. We see that a lot of the reason the Rams are a one lost team and so good against this so not good against the spread, where Kansas City is pretty much the same one loss more um but did so well against the spread because we saw one coming, we didn't see the

other coming. So I mean, I think that's why Seattle has been so impressive, at least spread wise. Now with that said, um our listeners are in for a tree because I absolutely love these primetime games this week Saturday, Sunday Night and Monday Night football, and yeah, you gotta come out double fisted all on both these games. I love Minnesota in this spot against Seattle, and I'm gonna continue right off for what Marco said, because nailed it. Um.

With Minnesota, it's pretty simple, you run the football. If they could run the football, they're gonna have success. And they just don't run enough. But against the Seattle defense, here's the defense you could run the football against. I mean home they allow five point six yards per rushing attempt and five point one overall. UM. So I mean this is a team you could easily run on it. And then you look at Seattle, and Marco nailed it again.

For Seattle to have success, they have to run the football and that's what they've done, running it for thirty plus time in five of the last seven games. And more importantly, that's allowed them to protect the football. They only have three turnovers in their last seven games. Um. Never had more than one in any of those. Where you look at Minnesota, it's turnovers has been costly for them. This is a team that's had two or more turnovers in five of their last seven games. So they just

haven't been protecting the football. So we're gonna do on Monday night. I think they will listen, shut down this Seattle running game a little bit and forced them to throw. They're gonna be in some trouble, especially against a Minnesota defense which doesn't allow quarterbacks to do all that much. I mean, I look over to the last seven ten games. Other than New England putting up three hundred against them, Arizona put up two hundred. No one else even broke

two hundred in their last seven games. Um So, for me, I think they're gonna give some troubles to that Seattle offense. I love the three and a half. I like the three and I think this has money line sprinkle written all over it. I don't think you're gonna eat points at all. Just take Minnesota to get that win in Seattle. You know what's funny what no one talks about? And I had to throw this out real quick. Where's all this talk with the Seattle home field advantage? Home field advantage?

You ever noticed? Home field advantage only matters when teams are good they have a good home field advantage, and then when they suck, we say, oh, their home field advantage sucks. And then when they're real good at home again. Oh, they have great home field advantage. I mean, think about it. No one's been talking about When was the last time anyone's talking about Seattle's home field advantage? We used to

have years ago. We used to a guy who came on this show who used to harp on things like that. If I can only remember his name, I'm telling it. What's happened now we don't know longer talk about that. It's always like, you know, how how great a team's home field advantages or how much it sucks. Um, But it's all reflective of the record. They have a good record this year, they're probably gonna have a good home field advantage. So, I mean, most of that is just nonsense.

You hear too much home field advantage talk, and to me, it's pretty much the same round. If they're having a good season, they're probably gonna have a pretty good season at home. Right, what's gonna do? What's gonna change? All right? Two very strong votes from Minnesota. I'm with you both. You get a hook there? Well, yeah, um, Minnesota plus the three and a half would be wonderful. There still are some out there, certainly some in town. Nugget when

coast stations. There's a lot of three and a half far away places. Let's see what we got out there for far and away places. Not as many, not as many, Oh, Chris, though bookmakers got three and a half out there. Let me run and make that right now, hold on, please make that bet while you guys are telling serious after you gave me all that shit about me saying they haven't beaten a winning team. Because because that's not because that's not the reason, that's not the reason for why

I'm doing it. I think your reasoning is flawed because you went after the Seahawks, and I think I eloquently explained what their schedule. To quote a great guy that's been on this podcast almost every week, there as a three dollar wow. Indeed, who is who would say such a thing? I wonder, UMC Marco, would you like to hear about my fantasy football team? Or do you want to take a pass on that? Can you have thirty seconds series? Okay, there is a numbers game, Gil, you know,

all down to business. You know you tune in, you know every weekday from seven to nine Pacific, and you know all that stuff. Visa, you know you forgot to plug yourself deal, so I'll do that for you. I know you're slipping, but then you uh, then you have megapod Gill a little more laid back, you know and correcting jokes and everything. Then there's Monday Night Deal. He's you know, he's fun, he's eating, you know, he's eating with us, he's doing breakfast burritos during the game and

everything else. And then there's the fourth and last Gil. You know, this one doesn't come out that often, and thank god he is a knutser the new Fantasy Gilt, yes, and uh, you know what that other than you know, the product that actually was on the screen with the Washington Redskins Monday, that was painful. Painful Fantasy Gil came out because once Mark Santez got in that game, it was like, where am I really gonna watch this? Like we're gonna win this game? Like any Redskin bets are

gonna cash. And let me just explain, it doesn't come out, but it came out because I engineered. Let me use that word because it sounds powerful. I engineered a one in five fantasy football team to a seven and six record and into my fantasy playoffs, knocking Clay Travis out. May I just say that, which is of course a metaphor for good overcoming evil and uh. And in the playoffs now as the team, the proverbial team that no

one wants to play, so we'll see what happens. I just wanted to point that, and the way I got in was just by like two points. It was dramatic. So anyway, I apologize, Marco Um. You know, I say very nice things about you, but clearly you don't feel that way about me. So let's move on to the Sunday night game, just messing with you. Uh, we have a flexed game Rams at the Bears, Rams favored by

three on the road. Mitch Trabinsky is a go Mitch Drabinsky is playing and Bears fans everywhere should be rejoicing in that because Chase Daniel not good at football, not good at all. Rams with the Lions. They end up covering, even though Todd Gurley messed around for a little bit north the two minute warning where he was like, yeah, I'm not gonna score yet, let's see what happens. But they do end up winning by fourteen thirty sixteen. They

cover against the Lions. Bears force overtime miraculously against the Giants and then losing overtime by a field goal that would have been if the If the Bears had pulled that off, that would have been one of the most ridiculous wins in the in the modern day history of the NFL. The Bears had six fumbles in that game and lost one of them, and they fumbled three times on that last drive and recovered all of them. Like, it's just amazing that they would have had the possibility

of winning that game anyway, they didn't. Giants win. Bears are eating for they leave the NFC North. Rams have already clinched the NFC West. But of course the Rams trying to get the best record throughout the playoffs in the National Football Conference. Marco Ago, you look at this one and obviously the Rams with their flashy offense, and I'll steal one of the lines that I know that the v R will come with. You know, styles make fights and everything, and you talk about it here. This

is the classic. You've got an offensive team against the defensive team, and which one's gonna you know, win? Out here. I look at the Rams scheduling lies. They're in a negative. They're playing their second consecutive week on the road. UH. Last week on the road. Uh, they played indoors at Detroit, didn't have to deal with any weather elements and didn't really have to deal with a football team either because

the Lions, UM have not done anything. And this game, like we talked about an earlier game in Lay, in the third quarter, this was a three point game and then Stafford does what Stafford does. It throws a pick. UH sets the Rams up, and then the Rams get the two touchdown margin and UH kill me and UH play that I had on the Lions. And I'm shaking my head while I did debt, but I did. I just thought it was a horrible spot in between the

Kansas City game in this Chicago game. Now they've got to come back play in the Windy City night game gonna be you know, a little chillier at night obviously in the Windy City. I like the defense here to win over the Rams have not been super impressive on the road. UM, this is a defense that gives up a lot of points. I know, it's it's hard to say not been super impressive because the team, you know, only has the loss to uh the to the Saints.

But They've given up a lot of points, and I don't see Chicago being able to win a shootout, but I see Chicago being able to slow them down enough. And Trabinsky back in the lineup is the X factor. Um, he's a bigger threat at this point of his career with his feet than he is with his arm. But he has had some good games and he traded points with New England earlier in the year, a game that

was you know, thirty thirty one. They went toe to toe with them yardage wise, they outgained the Patriots, but a couple of special teams plays turned that game around for the Patriots. I think Chicago gets the win here. Um, I like them is the home dog here. Uh, playing in Chicago in December for you know, warm weather team advantaged Chicago. Scheduling back to back weeks on the road.

Advantage Chicago. Let's go ahead and take them. For what is seems like an endless array of statement games for the Bears, this is their last statement game, uh, in front of a national audience. I'm gonna go ahead and go with them. Take Chicago outright, twenty seven to three. Score rams catching a bit of a break. It's gonna be at least here as we do this Thursday morning

forecast calling for thirty four degrees at night. During that game in Chicago Soldier Field, Sunday night game that was flexed in by the way the Steelers and the Raiders was the game that was flexed out. And again about

that Todd Gurley play. Girlely converted the third down late in the game against the Lines, and after breaking free, chose not to score to run more time off the clock force Detroit take time outs, and ultimately proved to be a good move because Girley ran for a two yard score with one fifty four left and the Lines were left with no time outs on their final drive, so Girley knew what Girley was doing. Bettors wanted to kill him at that moment who had the rams, but

ended up working out for them anyway. He said, quote I wanted to waste some time unquote yeah, I like this Sunday night game day. I'm not even gonna waste the listeners time. They just want the winner. I'm gonna give it to you right now, Chicago Bears. Take the points. You're not gonna meet them, but take it because it's generous and also we bet the under at fifty four and also add uh fifty three as I look, Yes,

so those are legit moves on the under. A couple of groups hit those I agree with them, but but I really like Chicago in this spot. Also, Uh, I'm high on this Rams team. I talked about them a lot why they're not covering spreads, but I think there's a good spot for Chicago coming off back to back road games now at home, um and listen, they again this is a team that unfortunately turned the ball over a little too much for my liking. Uh, but I

so like how they produced turnovers with Chicago. UM, that's why they've given us some points. But I think this total was a little bit too high because you're paying more for the names, um than anything else. And Marco's right styles make fights and they make games as well. And I think the Rams are gonna have some trouble

on offense here. I mean, as efficient as they are offensively, they've done their most damage UM when they're not one dimensional, when they've been able to run successfully, and that's always how them throw the ball successfully. But I don't think they're gonna be able to run on this defense that allows only eighty six yards per game on the ground, and more importantly only sixty six at home. At three point one yards per rushing attent, You're not gonna run

on this defense. And any time I say you become one dimensional makes it easier for defenses, even against an offense as efficient as the Los Angeles Rams. Again, I like Chicago in this spot, no reason to take up more time. I think the points are a gift, and I'm going to go ahead and and take Chicago and the under in what should be a much lower scoring game than that total reflects. So give me the Bears.

I'm on board with Marco fifty one and a half consensus on the total, right there, Tim, Uh, Yeah, obviously this is probably it's possibly my favorite game of the of the week from a fans perspective, when I'm really interested in in watching um, even even with the good Seahawks game of the following nights. Uh. The the angle that I'm looking at on this one, Gil, going back to some props, I'm I'm interested to see what they're gonna set Todd Gurley's rushing yards. Uh for going up

against that that great Chicago run defense. That just gave up a hundred twenty five yards to stay Kwon Barkley. Um, I'm kind of hoping that there ma that uh they lower it a little bits, uh, but maybe a chance for the over. But if Todd Reerley gets too much credit, UM, I may be even looking for the under on on believing in that Bears defense. But the next step if I don't like anything that Todd Gurley is giving, if I think that that line set, I'm gonna be looking

at Jared Goffe's completions. Um. In games where they've had, where they've played uh, some quality run defenses, Todd Gurley has been held to under a hundred yards and Jared Goff's completions have gone uh north of twenty three. So uh, Todd Gurley rushing yards and Jared goff completions are going to be the two player of props. And I'm looking

towards uh. And I'm probably gonna include the Bears and a couple of my teasers teasing the Bears to nine or ten depending on a six point seven point teaser. We're six and a half a night and f I'd go seven. Yeah, a lot of teaser opportunities Minnesota. Also UM again as a dog at Seattle. Pretty darn tempting as well, even though again you're going through the UH seven and perhaps the ten if you do a seven pointer as well as opposed to three and seven that is,

but still huge on that one. Let's do Sunday Day games. Dibbs to you, Ace, what you got? This is so difficult, I swear I feel I could get out four sides and four totals and then feel confident about turning a profit. Uh. Narrowing it down. I'm gonna go ahead and uh go to New Orleans at Tampa Bay, just because this is a game I like to side and the total. We're gonna use the side for our best bet, but I'll give the total out as well. This is one we

bet the total real quickly. Already bet deondre. Bet deondre at fifty six UM with New Orleans Tampa Bay. It's why I's sitting at fifty five fifty five and a half right now. I like Tampa getting the points as well. And the number one reason for that is this UM revenge. That's going to be the talk revenge for the Saints for losing game one. UM of the season to this same Tampa Bay team that, let's not forget New Orleans

was a ten point favorite against them at home. At home, they were ten, and now they're eight and a half on the road even nine at some spots. UM doesn't make sense, specially when they're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. And this is what I mean by why bring up what were the season win totals? You look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, exactly where they're supposed to be,

pretty much right. The season win total was six and a half with the over favor that went off six and a half with the younger favor their five and seven, right where they should be. You look at New Orleans, a team that we were really high on coming into the season. I bet all those futures on they've come through already hit their season win total over um. But again, they're they're doing pretty much what they're supposed to. Maybe they should be at nine and three right now, one

more win based on that. But with that said, this line, if you compare it, and again so many games have passed, but still the fact that these teams are doing what they're supposed to, and yet this point spread when compared to that Week one game, not much of adjustment, even

though it's being played at a completely different location. Um. So for me, there's line value there automatically, And and it's no surprise you're not going to get New Orleans at any discount just because they didn't cover against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night football. When you cover as many games as they did in a row, believe me that that taste is left in the book's mouth, just

like it's left in the better's mouth. And how we say betters remember what they saw last, rest of short books, remember who hurt them last. So knowing New Orleans been one of those teams that they know is going to get action on Sunday and you're not going to get them at a discount. Um. And I think this is one of those spots where where that really holds true. And let's not forget man. I mean, Tampa's played them tough in Tampa Bay. They beat them there last year

at six point home underdogs. They beat them there in also straight up, Um, they play they play New Orleans tomp I mean you look at the last hand four games they really show up against the New Orleans Saints. I think only once in the last five have they lost by more than this point spread um And again, I always say this about Tampa They could go down the field and score on anybody when it doesn't matter. And when that's the case, that back door stays open

for a team like this. I'll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Give me the eight, eight and a half, whatever it is. I don't think we're gonna need it. They'll keep it within a touchdown. Well, I sprinkle, why not they beat them once? They could beat them again? And I always sprinkle if I'm gonna bet it, so my money's on Tampa Bay plus two points and the under double sprinkle on the show. New Orleans giving eight at Tampa Bay this week, ten days after their debacle at Dallas, they

were giving seven against the Cowboys. That was the most bizarre performance of the entire football season in terms of Okay, I get it. Maybe you thought the Cowboys wouldn't cover, maybe even thought the Cowboys are gonna win. But good lord, if I told you before that game the Cowboys were going to score thirteen points, how much of your bank account would you have unloaded on the New Orleans Saints headed into that game. Crazy performance from the Saints. We'll

see how they do against the Bucks. Aces taken the points with Jamis Winston, who, by the way, last week filled up statuet very nicely twenty thirty for two forty nine two touchdowns. Note picks five carries for forty eight yards as well for Jamis in that ball game for the Bucks. Timmy, what you got? Uh? So I'm actually gonna piggyback off of Ace and go with that same game. It's it's a It's a game that I um that I'm looking looking towards, and it's probably the only game

that I'm probably been in the side I look. I think that if you're the New Orleans Saints and you know that you you're fighting to possibly have to get that first place spot in the inn the NFC. Uh. Not only is this like a is this a revenge game based on early in the season against the Bucks, but this is definitely a uh no, we really are better than most of you. In response to how they performed, uh in Dallas what had been it was like what Drew Brees is like second worst performance in half a

decade or something like that. Um, it's I think Drew Brees is gonna come out firing. That Tampa defense uh leaves much to be desired. UM, anybody who listens to my podcast, it's probably laughing right now because I gushed about the Saints last week and then of course they uh they completely dropped the ball on on on performing. But I like them again this week. I've there They're

gonna be in all of my teasers. I've probably gonna take the I may pass on the on the side because I missed the best missed the best number, but uh, it was I teased it right away with a number of other games like uh like with the Chiefs and UH and the Bears. UM. But I'm definitely going back to some player props. I am looking at Trey Kwan Smith. Um, I'm looking at his receptions. He has sort of uh he had, he had an egg and then he had

a huge game and then he didn't perform well. But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are are an inefficient passing defense, and especially against number of the wide receiver one and two. UH trade Kuwan Smith often is undervalued because his name is that Michael Thomas in UH player props, and so I usually you can usually get a lot of value, especially on the receptions over under on receptions um and

then going on the other way. Uh. The New Orleans Saints are actually the most inefficient defense against a wide receiver too, according to our friends over at Football Outsiders.

So I'm gonna be if Deshan Jackson apparently he didn't he didn't practice uh um, I think yesterday with a thumb, assuming he's good to go, I'm gonna definitely be looking at Deshan Jackson for all sorts of player props on on uh not on receptions uh past receiving yards and then probably even longest longest reception I think, because this could turn turn into a a shootout with Tampa Bay trying to keep up, I think they're gonna go deep a few times into Sean Jackson could be the beneficiary

of that. Alright, Football Outsiders backing up a lot of what Timmy saying. New Orleans. By the way, Drew Brees last Thursday night, eighteen of twenty eight for one twenty seven eighteen of twenty eight, one seven, one touchdown, one pick, one hundred and seventies six total yards of offense for the Saints a week after Thanksgiving. And remember all those stats about how few third three and ounce they've had

all season long. They were three of eleven on third downs in that game against the Cowboys, Cowboys winning it again thirteen ten. Marco, Which way you're going on Sunday going ugly? Guys going ugly. We're going to head out West Detroit in Arizona. This might have been a game. Hey, what's the one game you don't want to play? Exactly what I was thinking, Yeah, this could be a great one. But you know what, it has been a bad, bad

run for our Johnny Detroit's Detroit Lions. They just finished three games in a row at home and you're saying, okay, they you know, crap the bed at home. Why you want him on the road. You know what, when things are going as bad as they are going, there's the best place to be is away from home. You don't have to listen to the local talk shows, you don't have to read the local newspapers. Get on the road, just play a game. And I think that's the best

thing for the Lions. And let's face it, Arizona. Last week's win against Green Bay was that the ugliest performance you ever saw from an NFL team, UM, Aaron Rodgers. Uh you know, if he's heart wise, he even playing all right? Uh you know, if we're gonna go with that card. This is a team to me last week that mailed everything in after what it happened the last few weeks and then the discontent uh with the Aaron Rodgers and UH coach McCarthy and everything that unfolded after

that game. I'm not putting any stock in the Arizona win. This is the team. Last week they were able to put up a hundred and eighty two yards on the ground. That's their offense passing wise the last three weeks, uh Josh Rosen a hundred twenty eight yards passing, eighty seven yards passing dred and thirty three uh net yards. No, I'm not going with Arizona here. I'm gonna take Detroit if they have any pride at all to show up

in dismantle a bad Arizona football team. If they have any pride at all, That is the caveat Marco that it's the one thing. They've lost five of six have the Lions since Uh they had a winning record back in late October. If you can believe that another four and eight. That's not good, Josh Rosen, As you said, eleven for one forty nine last week. But third and what was it, third and twenty three? You know that was the that was the big play of the game.

Cardinals patchwork offensive line Rosen hits Larry Fitzgerald for sliding thirty two yard completion helped set up Zane gonzalez Is game winning forty four yard field goal with one forty one left against the Packers. Eventually, it was game winning because Mason Crosby missing a forty nine yard attempt as

time expired. By way, that's what I say about the Mike McCarthy firing that that I haven't heard anybody else say, which is because everybody's debating, Oh is it respectful to do it now and not, you know, even at the end of the season. Here's my question. If Mason Crosby makes that field goal, is he not fired? Like? How result oriented is that? You know? I that's the point that I can't get over. It's like, oh, it's because

he missed the field goal. Again, you got so upset that you decided to fire him then in there anyway, just a thought before we get too thoughts on Thursday game and the final two questions. Remember, as always, support for today's show brought to you by the good folks over at Bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu I swear by it. I wouldn't know what to do anymore. Seriously,

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Bookmaker dot e. They are at the place to be. Yes. You know what else you can do with Bookmaker was that at half time of a bad bet, you can get out of it, you know, like Monday night when you know people were jumping out of that Washington bet and you know, getting out with Philadelphia you can do that, you know that, right? Yeah, as I was contemplating, I was like, shoot, I bet Philadelphia minus four and a half here. Yeah, because I had I had watched listen

to Marco. Look how gleefully is. He's like he's like, he's like he's making I got out. You sat there, you know. I tried to lead you down the promised rail there, buddy, you were you were too busy with that. It was my idea, as I recalled, But I was like, yeah, I'm not gonna mess around with it. And I should have, but I was, of course, uh too much into my fantasy football team that I was kind of distracted. So anyway, thank you Zach Brown on fourth and goal. That's all

I have to say. What if I send Zach Brown a fruit basket with a note attached and just said, hey, man, I just want to thank you for getting my fantasy football team. Man, what do you think you would say to that? He'd be like, what the hell is this guy? Who is that? Who the hell is that? What is the fruit basket? Alright? Thursday? And I thought it's not very sexy, but it's Jacksonville at Tennessee. Tennessee is favored

by five and a half. It means a lot to Tennessee because they're six and six and they're in the scrum for the wild card second wild card spot in the a f C. The total, to me here is the most interesting thing. The total is thirty seven. This to me feels like and I've said this before on some other games, this to me feels like the artificial floor that we often see in baseball where there was always a time in baseball where no totals would be posted below sevens That were very rare. You know, do

you never even see a six? Then after that and then like only in recent times have you seen five and a half. And I always used to say, like during the playoffs, I remember it was like Lindsey comin Oswalt where they wouldn't put it below six, and I always just say this is an artificial flour. They just won't go lower than this. This feels to me in an era now where the average NFL totals are in the high forties, this thirty seven is particularly low. I

don't think it's low enough. Curious as to your thoughts on that, you know, I agree with you, Yes, they can't in today's market, they can't go any lower than this. They're just because, especially with the teasers too, you know how many people are gonna tease it ger and go over and you know it could be a mistake. I mean, look last week the six nothing game. But the only thing I'm gonna point out on this game on paper,

you're supposed to play Tennessee. I just find it really intriguing that we finally saw the Jacksonville defense of two thousand seven team last week, and let's face it, the cults were rolling going into there. And is it a coincidence? Does anybody tech the coincidence that the defense came to play the first week that they actually benched Blake Bortles. This was the locker room that I think was being fractured offensive versus defensive. The defensive guys were tired of

carrying the team, tired of the Blake Bortles. You know scenario, They finally bench them and they get a big game. This is a primetime game for a team that has nothing to play for. I've talked about it many many times. If they're gonna come to play, this is the game they come to play for. So if you put the old gun to my head, and that's the beauty. If we don't off the bed every game, but the gun

to my head, I would lean to Jacksonville. Yeah. I haven't bet this game, just to be completely honest with our listeners. Not a game I really love. But I agree with Marco. Um, I'm not high on this Tennessee team. Not comfortable lane the points, not sure why this line's going up. But again, not a game that I have touched so far. Uh. Yeah, I I agree with everything that's been said. I especially agree with I don't think

this is under is low enough. I think I think we're running back, is gonna get a lot of actions. I think this is gonna be a short game. Um. And so when you when you pair that with you know, who's actually gonna score points in this game. I think that that total could even be a little bit lower. I think Derrick Henry UH, Derrick Henry under rushing yards is a player of problem. I'm looking at tonight and U with that. With that total, I may be doing

some live betting. If there's a score early, I may try to take advantage of a of a spike in UH in the total and take the under UH in the in life betting, depending on how I see. But there's also a good chance skill. But I don't watch one into the there is that. I used to say that during baseball season, like a random Wednesday, uh, the games were so bad, like in July, like really horrible, you are not required to watch this major League baseball game.

I would say the same about this. But I do think it's gonna be a live betting fest for me in this game tonight. Let's go to the final two questions, gentlemen, as always, by the way, before we do that, let me let me quote Jeff Fogel. Jeff Fogel, who does analytics over at Visa, is the author of the Visa City Newsletter. And never give Jeff a shout on this particular podcast, but he does something called drive points. It's his own proprietary stat. It's a Visa exclusive stat. It

refers to drives of sixty yards or more. So basically you throw out short drives and you're trying to get an assessment of which offenses can sustain drives and which defenses can you not sustain drives against. Well, Jacksonville currently ranks is the fourth worst drive point offense through that lens in the NFL that tabulates point scored or allowed to get on drives of sixty yards of more, just nine point eight drive points per game this season for

the Jags offense. Tennessee, on the other hand, ranks third best on defense in that stat, allowing just eleven point zero drive points per game. So basically, start with an offense that struggles in Jacksonville. Then you throw in the fact that they have a backup quarterback here in Cody Kessler, who I guess technically won his first start and the

sixth nothing went over the Colts last week. He's got a short prep week here, first road game as a Jag against a pretty darn good Tennessee Titans defense at least through that prison. So just to throw that in the mix as a nod to the Tennessee side anyway in this ball game. Alright, final two questions then, as promised. First question is always which of the big favorites in your opinion is the most likely to lose? Outright? In

Week fourteen? Your candidates are Kansas City Chiefs six and a half point consensus favorites at home against the Baltimore Ravens New Orleans, as we mentioned, eight point favorites on the road at Tampa Bay, New England, seven and a half point favorites on the road against my Amma Chargers, fourteen point favorites at home against since Senata and Pittsburgh ten point favorites on the road ten and a half somewhere as well, on the road at Oakland. Timmy, start

with you, who's the most likely to lose that? Right? I didn't. I'm sorry if I did? You include Atlantic, include Landing. Okay, well, then I think I want to go. I'm gonna go Chiefs. I think, um, I think the Ravens. Uh. I think the Ravens proven that they that they're uh you know, they could be competitive, and that they can uh,

they can play. The Chiefs have had enough close games again in enough have played teams close enough in some games where I thought they'd really get some separation to show that, you know, you know, I think that there could be an opportunity for for Baltimore here. I'm not

betting it, but that's my answer. Chief's first game without Kareem Hunt against the legitimate NFL football team because we're throughout the Raiders and the Raiders and the Raiders got within three late in that game last week against the Chiefs. So Kareem Hunt no longer in the league as every and he knows after TMZ showed a video of him shoving and kicking a girl and even at home, even at home against Arizona, I mean ended up being team but like they're for a good part of that game.

It looks like Arizona was in it, right, And who's Arizona especially going on in Kansas City And that's with Kareem Hunt right, So um yeah, I think I think Baltimore is a live dog there. I'm gonna agree Baltimore, you've got the best defense getting a touchdown here basically, and this is gonna be I think the coming out party of Lamar Jackson. The game plan has to be to take the reins off him in this game. They can't win with him making just a handful of passes,

you know, in him running the football. They're gonna have to let him go downfield. And this is the best defense for that to happen against UM And I think that, uh, if he does do that, we will officially have seen the last of Joe Flacco. I think that's probably true. My big one, I'm god, you know, I already gave ut Tampa Bay, but let's give an all one that I like, I think really has a shot of winning

the game out right, and that's Miami Dompins against New England. Again, you don't get rich going against New England, but I do think this is a spot that Miami could get it done in. I grabbed the points already, and anytime I grabbed the points, I'm gonna sprinkle a little something something sprinkle, And I after losing by thirty one to them back in September, maybe Miami shows up and gets it done for us. Is that a world record? Three sprinkles on one show? I think it is Miami that

has ar written all over it. Miami. Could you imagine a three team Sprinkle parlay hidden on that man, Jeremy Sprinkle. Shout out Miami by the way, six and six. They need this to they're in the scrum of teams for that wild card, that second wild card in the a f C Division game at Miami. Good choice right there. Final question, if we live in the bizarro world, you got to, uh, you had to make a pick in every one of these games on the side you got

one free pass, though, which game would you pass on? Tim? Uh? You know, there's there's a there's several games here that are that are kind of ugly and that would but I think I could talk myself into at least one of those sides except four Giants Redskins. Giants Redskins. Yeah, I want no part of that game. That's that's an interesting one. When I went from Colt McCoy and Mark Stanchez, it went from one point Redskin favorite to a four

point Giants through the three. Right now, it's settling in a Giants minus three and a half on the road against the sad Shiz and you're Washington Redskins, Marco, You're Washington Redskins. But I don't I wouldn't want to. I wouldn't want to back you lie either, right right? That BAMA defense is gonna be tough. Marcom Hey, for the New York Giant fans out there, got a stat for you. Think about this, chillab on this one. Odell Beckham Jr. Has to touchdown passes of forty plus yards this year.

Do you know how many eli have one? None. I'm gonna go to the l A Super Charger super and say that I don't want any part of this because here's the thing. First of all, you cannot give me enough money right now to bet the Cincinnati Bengals. There there's no situation that I think I could find myself on them with unless maybe the last game of the season when they play the Steelers. If they're in a spoiler's role. Uh, this team is toast Martin Lewis's toast.

But do you really want to lay double digits with the Chargers in the ultimate of sandwich games. They had the Steelers on Sunday night, and look at what they've got up in four days people, four days, Kansas City, Kansas City. I'm all about the charges. I gotta to win the a f C future on them. I think they are sneaky good, and I don't think there is

a flawless team in the a f C. I really don't. Plus, I haven't met seven to one plus seven ten actually, which again I know if you parlay them through the playoffs, you'll get a number higher than that. Uh there are no more plus seven tents out there as far as

I know. That was before the Steelers game. So glad I got that in my pocket because I really believe that team is when they get Melvin Gordon back to they got Bosa, They're gonna have their whole team together, probably the most balanced team in the a f C. We shall see in five the last four games straight up nineteen and five straight up? What do you not

want here? Real quickly? That that four team money line parlay we touched on, which was Minnesota, Vikings, Bears, Tampa Bay and Miami actually a hundred dollars paced back like Dred just tossed it in just because we said it. What happens if it wins, um So if you guys want to follow, it will pay about for a hundre. Right, But I'm gonna go Jets versus Buffalo, uh nine, A game I want to touch Buffalo just beat them two weeks ago. Was its three weeks ago by thirty one

points as seven point road dogs. Um now they're home favorite. Yeah, Buffalo Bills a home favorite. Um yeah, nothing I want to get out in front of Yeah. Yeah, watch the Jets show up for that. That's true. I don't want anything to do with that either. All right, gentlemen, we've done all we can do. Week fourteen in the National

Football League. As always, thank you Marco, thank you, Ace, appreciate the time, and Tim a better life the podcast bailable everywhere that podcasts are distributed, and this weekend featuring our own Ace, so we look forward to that. Thank you all for listening, Tim, thank you appreciate it, and as always, good luck with all your bets. Week fourteen in the NFL. Thank you so much for listen.