Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 11 Preview

I've been talking about for years on the show. Again the best, the number one, the top, Beating the Book score extra. At the end of the regular season, we will have you on the megapod for wild Card week to discuss your NFL trading success and of course go through the wild card games with you. So that is the entire goal for beating the book listeners. There's a bigger five thousand dollar pot, but if you have an

enter jet, probably not gonna win that. But you can still in the Beating the Book pool again, that's the score x dot com. Just enter the promo code GIL. Got to do that promo code Gil with two l's. That's how you get into the Beating the Book pool. And again you win it all. You're on the Megapod wild Card weekend. I update the stats on my Twitter at beating the book from time to time, so check it out. Give you the top five courtesy of the score X. That's the score x dot com defined all

the download links. It is week leven, the one week where all the primetime games are the best games, best matchups, at least from a fan's perspective. We'll get to all of those Sunday daytime picks, and of course the final two questions as always on the show. The staples from wager Talk dot Com thirty nine years into business, Marco to Angelo Goo Morning Marco today. I am doing fine out that the technology of the podcast is working. I am ready to go feeling good. You know you should

get your own show because you're you're a wizard at this. Yeah, technology proving to be hurdles everywhere. Let me just put it that way. And all my left lads and Eelman treating the Kansas City Chiefs like he treated the Seattle Seahawks back in still fading the chiefs, ladies and gentlemen. It's Ace, good morning, Ace, all right, good morning. That's all. We may be wrong once for this decade, so Chief Fans doesn't look good. I don't think I'll be wrong twice,

but yeah, you're right. It does move so quickly. Can't believe we're already been in college basketball, man, and then Thanksgiving is next week? Does go too quickly, way too fast. Thanksgiving show up a little too early for everybody this year I have. I couldn't believe it's next week. When my wife said, you know, planning for Thanksgiving, I'm like, what are you talking about? What do you get already? And it's like, already it's next week. I can't believe it.

The twenty second, that's an early Thanksgiving. And by the way, let me just say this, we do not do a megapod on Thanksgiving week, so everybody with the grown I get it. Yeah, we could try to get the group together on Wednesday, it just doesn't work out Thanksgiving week. We've tried it before. People are traveling, so we just take Thursday off Thanksgiving. We take the week off of the megapod. We will have guessing lines at the beginning of the week, but no megapod next week, so we

apologize in advance for that. We'll be back the following week. For Week thirteen. That has always been a megapod tradition. If you will returning to the show, We Love Them back for the first time this season. The creator of the Power Rank dot Com. It's our friend Ed Faye. Good morning Ed, Good morning Gil. Thanks so much for having me on. I appreciate it. Ed is in snowy an arbor, braving the weather conditions. You think Michigan is getting to the college football playoffs? By the way, I

believe there's a good chance. Last week I checked, I think it was about fifty fifty. But this Michigan team is on the rise. Ohio State's not quite the same program,

so I'm pretty optimistic about their chances. Here's the thing. If, in fact, the old scenario that everybody's talking about now I was talking about on the Vicent Show Numbers Game a few weeks back, if Alabama runs the table but then loses to Georgia, Let's say a field goal in the SEC Championship, should Alabama be in and Michigan out ed um No, But obviously I'm biased, so everyone can

make their own judgment about this. But what I have them meaning to do is figure out the probability that this scenario happens because you need Notre Dame to win these next two games. You need Michigan beat Ohio State, and I mean they're a pretty good chance to beat Northwestern. The chance of that scenario happens has got to be like five. So it's fun to talk about. Probably not gonna happen. At the end of the day, Marco, I went around town, as you were even witnessed to me

doing this last year. I went around town before the playoff was elected, betting people saying Alabama will be in the final four, just getting a hundred dollar bills from everybody. It's awesome. There'll be one loss Alabama over Michigan. Absolutely, they'll be in. Yeah, they're they're Alabama is not left off the ticket. You got a sad part. What do

you do with Georgia. Georgia will be into Georgia, into Georgia wins the SEC I ran, So you know, then Michigan is gonna be the odd man out because if Notre Dame runs the table, they're gonna they're in automatically because of the name. I just you know, they're the schedule. Strength doesn't is not going to apply, and Michigan will get to they will get to feel how Penn State felt a couple of years ago, Jack, same scenario. This committee, this committee has has moved conference champs that win a

conference championship game over idle teams. So why does the Notre Dame the one left out? They're gonna be sitting at three will soon Clemson's in. Michigan jumps Notre Dame because they win a game. Georgia jump Notre Dame. Here's the answer to your question, ed because their Notre Dame,

because they're Michigan. That's why they're getting in right now. No, college football is not a meritocracy, right, It's just completely bullshit and it's that And I'm not trying to be flip about it, but Marco saw me do this last year with some folks. I was so convinced Alabama we be in because I know how these people are in college football. Right, it's all about the money in the end, and it's such utter bullshit in the end who they

put in. And so because it's not a meritocracy, there's obviously going to be a school or schools that just get absolutely shafted. But if it's all about the money, that that's in favor of Michigan, because Michigan will bring the eyeballs wherever they go in that semifinal game, not more than Notre Dame Alabama. The only teams got their own their own TV station, you know, they get their

own contract for all of their games with NBC. Notre Dame's the lock if they if they run the table, there's no no way that they let Notre Dame out. I would be absolutely shocked. Um, if that scenario happens with the George Alabama game, it's gonna be unfortunately, Michigan odd man out. It's gonna be the exact same thing as Penn State was. The same situation. They're gonna win the conference championship and all of that in and gets route in the end because of somebody else being up there.

And I'll bet you a hundred dollars. Oh yeah, first of all, so so I'm happy to do that. You're on gil, But but first of all, I mean, I gotta check what the number is. But there's about a thirty percent chance, probably a little bit less, that Georgia actually pulls that upside off. Yeah, we will revisited. Only in that scenario we obviously we got a long way to go. Yes, sir, that is the biggest topic of conversation in ann Arbor. I'm sure it is. I'm sure

it is. Well before the basketball game last night. We Yeah, that's kind of taking up the airspace this morning. I understand. And it's no disrespect, by the way, to Michigan and the alumni, because I grew up in d C. For whatever reason, when I grew up in d C, and maybe it's still the case now, but Michigan is a

huge school for d C high school graduates. So I have a bunch of friends who went to Michigan, and let me just say this to a man, they still, decades later, love everything Michigan like they hold Michigan above everything else in their lives, over any pros forwards team. So I respect Michigan. It's just how college football works. We'll see how it happens if in fact that scenario materializes.

Let's talk NFL, gentlemen. This is one unbelievable series of primetime games beginning and let's do it from reverse Monday night, not only the best game, the Markee Game of the weekend, but the markete game of the NFL schedule from maybe the outset of the NFL schedule. It's the Chiefs and the Rams now. The biggest story in the league this week, of course, was the fact that this was originally intended to be played at Estadio a Steca in Mexico City.

The field conditions were such that even the National Football League, led by Roger Goodell, who is hell bent on absolutely proliferating this sport globally, hell bent on having the three games in London and the game in Mexico City for his international series, they would have done anything not to move this game, but even they had to when the field was such caused by concerts, caused by soccer games,

and weather just unplayable. Players on both teams threatened that not to play if in fact they kept it as Stadiosteca, and so they had no choice. The NFL didn't, and the game is now in l A. The number moves from two and a half to three and a half on that move to l A and favor of the home standing Rams. No Cooper Cup for the Rams. He's out for the season, and you have too high octane offenses to even in the Rams case, two very sort

of beatable defenses suspect defenses. The total therefore informed by that six the three and a half. It is the highest total in the National Football League since as far back as six at least that's as far back as a reliable database goes. Uh. For some who have investigated this passionately sixty three and a half right now at sixty three or sixty three and a half, depending on where you're shopping. The total did not move once it went from Mexico City to Los Angeles. That's somewhat curious.

We begin, as always with our guests, Mr Fang from the Power Rank. What you got here, Agil, You got to make sure that next time I'm at your house to build you a statue. Roger Goodell, I know how much you love the guys. I'm a big fan. Are you always on when I go on a Goodell rant? Is that always you that happens to be on? Maybe? I don't know. I mean I listened to you otherwise. I appreciate what the show. I appreciate. I know you

love the man not um, yeah, you know, I I think. Uh. This is obviously the super Bowl of the regular season, very exciting game. Um. The thing my number has ramps by five point two and that's adjusted for now they're playing in their their home field. UM. Surprised the markets have only moved to point with that. You know, when I do home field, it's about two and a half points over the last five years. Sorry two and a

half points, I said that, right, yeah, UM. But the thing that really strikes me about this game are the defenses. I mean, we know that we need that. We know these offenses can score, we know that they can move the ball, and it's really a story of the defense. And when I, UH do my numbers, I have the RAMS is about a league average UH defense and um, for Kansas City, that's really not the case. When I look at I look at defense in two different ways.

I look at yours for past attempt adjusted for strength of schedule, and their twelve in that category, which makes you think that maybe the Chief's defense is okay. But what I've been doing this year, and this is new for me, is looking at success rate. So success rate is uh, you know, an offense that succeeds if if you get half of the yards on first down, on second down and all the necessary yards on third and

fourth down. Uh. And then what I do is I take that raw success rate and I adjust for strength of schedule in Kansas City is thirty feet out of thirty two NFL teams on defense by that metric. So the I mean, I see here two leade offenses, a Rams defense that's about the middle of the league could be better. Uh kind of have you gotta have some faith uh in that unit because because they've been good, and and then the Kansas City defense that's really going. So I really I like the Rams in this game.

I would definitely towards them on the side. And UM six series a pretty high total. It wasn't didn't that Super Bowl between Atlanta and New England get into the sixties? Did it? I can't remember offhand. I want to say it was like sixty one or sixty two. And whenever you see a number like that in the NFL, I mean you almost always want to lean the under. My numbers like the under a little bit. But again that's that's always an effort proposition with with just such explosive offenses.

I am efforting the Falcons Patriots super Bowl total at that time, New England was favored by three that much. I remember as far as what the total was the total in that game was. I know I had an under bed in that and uh saw that blow up with the beltdown, Yeah exactly, and plus like you know, Tom Brady throws a pick six in that game too, and I think it would have gone under without that play, right, I'm saying, yeah, I'm seeing fifty eight and a half,

but I don't know if that's where it closed. You know that one and a half was the highest total, uh, that we've ever had in the NFL prior to this. And I don't remember which game it was, but I ms the Rams. I think wasn't in a couple of years when they had that Greatest Show on Turf team. What about that um that Packers Falcons playoff game that same year that the Falcons went to the Super Bowl.

I remember that one being in the close to the sixties as well, but not sixty three that I think is uh, that's the high water mark, sixty three and

a half. As we do this on Thursday morning between the Chiefs and the Rams, I was talking about this game with the producer of my Behind the Book video series that I do with j rud the Vice president and MGM Racing Sports every week Matt Brown is his name, and Matt and I were talking about this Chiefs Rams game and we were saying, Okay, well, you know both coaches are going to go in with this attitude on offense.

At first, I think one thought for Sean McVan Andy Reid will be, well, look, we want to keep the other offense off the field, so let's run the ball. Let's try to make a concerted effort to run the ball with Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley, respectively. But then the sort of second thought would would probably be Okay, even if they start that way, they're going to realize that they can just destroy the opposing defense so much that why are they even bothering with that if they

can just matriculate quickly down the field. So I don't even know if that's a strategy that even is sustainable or even is something that will hold any water for more than five minutes. It's interesting game to even think about, and I have no real feel as to how it's going to go. Marco, what do you think? Well, for me, uh, you know, I agree with the Rams being the side in this one. And because I know Kansas City, we're getting a little bit of false hope with Kansas City.

People are talking the last you know, four weeks. You know, look, their defense is playing better all of a sudden. Now you know they only gave up ten and fourteen, and you know the Rams are given up in thirties. They give up forty five to the Saints. Let's just stop for a second and look at what Kansas City has played and the city in the last four games. They played a Cincinnati team the week after they were beat up by the Steelers physically, and then that last second loss.

Then they played Denver, who has just you know, shot themselves in the foot all year. They played Cleveland in Arizona, two of the you know, worst teams in the league. You know, offensive not a threat. You flip that over and you look at the Rams and if you look, like, just what points they're giving up? Yeah, the Rams are given up more points per game. But look at the

rundown of offenses and quarterbacks that they have faced. They faced Philip Rivers, they faced Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson twice. They faced Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Come on, you can't even compare the lineups of what the two defenses have faced in this one. I'm gonna go ahead. I'm gonna take the Rams in this game. I'm also going to take the the over. I know it's the squarest

bet on the board. But guys, we're having a changing of the guard, and until Vegas five is with that new you know high watermark is, I'm gonna go to the over and I know that. You know the Sharks are gonna come in. They're gonna bet the under because that's what they do, because they don't they just don't see teams scoring as many points. But guys, we've seen it move on the bottom end. You know, you don't see thirty seven and thirty eights in the NFL anymore.

You don't see forty ones that often anymore. They're they're moving the lines up. But yet, you know, when you get to the top end, there's that ceiling. Where do we stop at? I don't think this is high enough. I I see this game both teams getting into the thirties. Um. I actually have the Rams getting to forty in this one. And I was hoping this game was gonna stay in Mexico because uh, I would have liked it even more.

I know the field conditions wouldn't have been conducive. But I was looking forward to seeing these two teams play the fourth quarter with both defenses gas from going up and down the field, watching each other trying to, you know, stop each other, and then playing that fourth quarter. Uh, you know, with the fatigue factor, guys would just be breaking and plays open left and right. But I'm still going over the total, and I like the Rams not to mention sixty seven or sixty eight yard field goal

attempts down in the elevation of Mexico City. It should be noted that the Rams are practicing in Colorado Springs. They were practicing in the elevation of Colorado in preparation for the game in Mexico City. They decided to hang out there practice the rest of the week before they head back to Los Angeles for this one murderers row of opposing quarterbacks. Though it's an excellent point from you, Marco, the Rams do want to clean up the penalties though,

that's for sure. Ten penalties last week against the Seahawks for a hundred and two yards, many of which were just ridiculous, stupid defensive penalties that kept Seahawks drive sustained. So they can clean that up. That's another sort of check in the Rams box. Ace. Hey, you know what's really surprising with this matchup that I mean, and here's the bottom line with these two teams. They're both sitting

at nine and one. And there's a simple reason why Kansas Cities eight and two against the spread and the Rams are only four and six against the spread. And the reason for that is because coming into the season, everyone was well aware that the Rams were going to be one of the elite teams in the NFL. Um, you looked at future ons, you looked at season win totals, and they were in the top three of the NFL.

And any time that's already established, um, they're gonna put out a very difficult line, meaning you're not gonna really be able to turn a profit off those top tier teams when we go into the season knowing about them, and we touch on it on the podcast all the time. The one team that's been able to do that consistently,

there's only been one. That's the New England Patriots, where even though every year going in, you know, the market concludes they will be competitive and elite, uh, they're still able to outperform the betting market. UM. Usually you can't. And the Rams are a perfect example of that. UM nine and one straight up, four and six against the spread. Like I say, the spread becomes a great equalis or embetting sports, we usually know whether team MAY or Team

B is better. In most cases. Now, Kansas City there ain't into for the simple reason nobody saw them coming. Look what their season win total was coming into the season, UM, and they called most by surprise UM. And I think that's why you're looking at such a great a t S record. UM. I think there's there's value here on

the Rams. UM. The fact that they're playing at home now and getting almost no respect as far as that the line goes for that adjustment from Mexico City to l A, that alone, I think gives you some line value. I don't think they adjusted enough. UM. But I also liked the total here. But real quickly I wanted to add what surprises me? And I wanted to know what you guys saw prior to the season. This line for this game, and and granted is in Mexico City was

three Rams minus three UM. And and like I said, coming in, everyone no one's surprised that the rams are nine in one. But I think a lot of people are surprised case's nine in one and yet the lines pretty much right where it would have been prior to the season. That to me is a little bit surprising. Um, but I want to get to the total real quickly, and for me, I think it's it's again if you

bet the younger, you're gonna be holding your breadth. I understand that these are two high profile offenses, and that's usually the case. Um, but real quickly. I always say, when you've got two great defenses, are two great offenses, it usually creates the perfect storm for the opposite to happen. You know, when you've got two great defenses, it's the perfect storm for and over because more times than not, the line shaded towards the bias of a low scoring game. Um,

so you got line value. I think you couple that with two good defenses and and defense turns. It gets turnovers. Um, you know, some some three and ounce and then short drives and up and down the field could happen. It doesn't necessarily mean uh, no score or low scoring game. And I think it's the same with with the the high scoring, high profile offenses. I mean, I don't think a shootouts what you go in there wanting to happen. If anything, you want to see that other team's offense

on the sideline, if that's the strongest part of their team. Um. So I got to give the Rams a little advantage there on the game planning. But it's finally for the total. Listen, this is the highest we've ever seen. So for me, it's it's an under or you've gotta pretty much leave it alone. And I agree with Marco, it's the changing

of the guard and it's a different NFL. Um But the fact that they didn't adjust this total when it moved locations from a field we already know was terrible tells you that they're not really even sure where to put this total. They're waiting for the market to tell them. And none of the betting syndicates that I provide accounts for have touched the side or the total yet in this game, So they're just leaving it where it is and see what's gonna happen the as they expect the

market to bet the over. But remember when you're going over sixty three, and if you look at Kansas City, only four of their ten games have gone over sixty three, and you look at the Rams, only four their ten games have gone over the sixty three. Um, I mean combine their ten overs, nine unders and a push. You know, it's not like they've been flying over in their games. If you bet the over for both these teams, you

haven't made any money. And again, when you go over sixty three, nothing can go wrong, meaning they have to score more than two touchdowns every quarter, one eight minute drive, and your probability of catching that ticket just dropped significantly. Now again, they could score real quickly in bunches. I get it, but until I see it happen on the field, I just can't go over a number like sixty three.

It's unprecedented. So for me it's it's under. And I like the Rams a little disagreement on the on the total, but I get It's. Like I said my conversation with my buddy Mett, it's like you think they'd come in wanting to keep the other offense off the field for long sustained drives, and then I think they'll quickly realize they can just torch the opposing defenses. But it's a good point ace when you have a total that high,

it does bear saying. At least once one long drive can really put you behind the eight ball on and over I I hear both sides or you know, a seven minute drive, that's right, that's right. And I missed field goals, I was at a field goal in this game with a total like that is sort of like a turnover, right, A missed field goal, for sure is a turnover, but even a field goal is sort of a notch against going over that number. All that said, I'm not betting the under either. I'm with you, Marco,

your breath, man. I don't know those bets, those bets that are the hardest to make usually cash the easiest, and the ones you're most confident with a like me last week you know what I uh or what was it two weeks ago? My most confident and you know they end up losing by thirties. So yeah, such a such a fun game to watch, this is gonna be and uh, I don't know. I like the ram side as well myself. Ace one thing, so you had that

that preseason at three. That's got to be a neutral site spread, right, two and a half three, so it's probably like six, you know, at the beginning of the season, I would have made the seven and a half of

the Rams. So that's in l A. But prior to the season, we knew it was in Mexico, right, I would have made it in l A seven and a half in Mexico City prior to the season in in l A. In l A seven and a half and you make their home field what two two and a half and okay, so in Mexico City it would have been five. Yeah, okay, that makes sense to me, that makes sense. It was three day thought Kansas City was

league average ish. We thought Rams were a Super Bowl contender, and I mean it shows exactly shows you what Kansas City has done. Let's move on, gentlemen. Sunday Night flexed in the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears flexed out by the way, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, you can credit Jacksonville for that credit in quotes Minnesota at Chicago, NFC North battle between the six and three Bears and the five three

and one Vikings. Interesting that when we talk about you know, and I've talked about it for months now, that it's Saints a Ram's in the NFC, it's Patriots chiefs in the a f C, though the Chargers and the Steelers will have something to say about that, especially after seeing

the Patriots played last week. But the team that no one sort of talks about anymore, and this was the team that before the season started some people were already not even penciling in, but they were doing it more permanent, inc putting the Minnesota Vikings, exalting the Vikings to the top of the conference five three and one. They still have an outstanding defense, a defense that is tops on

third downs. Uh, quitting new my buddies over an onside sports, Posing offenses are averaging eight point six yards to go on third downs against the Vikings, which is the equivalent of the Vikings basically turning opposing offenses into the Buffalo Bill's offense, because that's exactly what the Bills average yards to go on third downs on offense. So the Vikings

have been unbelievable. By the way, the opposing offense third down rate as a result, it follows, is by far the lowest in the league, right at around twenty five percent. If memory serves me correctly, it's twenty something, mid twenties. But here's the thing, Mitch Drobiski last week three fifty five yards passing, three touchdowns note picks on forty eight point six passer rating out of a total of one

fifty eight point three. Great game, and everybody's going crazy about Drabiski all of a sudden, But I'm not buying him for a second. He's a dinker and a dunker, and here now he faces the Vikings defense. Bears did snap that division drought, their first victory over division opponents since Halloween of ten in a row. They had lost

against division opponents, so that snapped. But it's the Vikings here, and the Bears are the home team giving right now as we do this Thursday morning, it's two and a half consensus, Mark, how do you feel about this one? Well, one of the things I thought you were going to point out is because of the flax in Chicago's uh, you know, Jacksonville's inepness in Chicago becoming a you know, a player in the playoffs. Uh, this gets moved in

and it is actually a huge disadvantage to Chicago. They're in a quandary here where they played Detroit last week. Guess they get to stay home two weeks in a row. So that helps. But they're gonna turn around off of this Sunday night game, which you know is gonna be finishing late, and turn around and play on a Thursday, not a Thursday night like most teams turn around, but Thursday at noon on the road. So tough, you know, problem for them after this and this is such a

big game. And to complicate that, Minnesota's coming off of by so all of the advantages as far as intangibles go or in Minnesota's favor um add to the scheduling problems. You know, figure Minnesota's You've talked about their defense has been getting better and better, and they've now had two weeks to prepare their defense. Minnesota during the last five games their four and one straight up, four and one against the spread, and they've held four of those five

opponents to twenty one points or less. The only team that scored more than that on Minnesota during that recent run was the Saints. Who is the team right now that is at the top of the heap as far as flavor of the week goes, because they've aren't it, They've done nothing wrong and his teams are scoring machine. But if you do go back to that game, and remember it, Minnesota was up thirteen to ten and driving right before the half with an opportunity to take a

ten lead. That would have changed the whole complexion of that game. But the theeling fumble consequently gave Minnesota the turner excuse me, New Orleans the turnover, and they punched it in for a touchdown went the other directions. It was a fourteen point swinging that game. I think Minnesota's the side here. I'm taking Minnesota. I've got to winning

the game. But where I'm gonna be even more kill And you know thousand and eight, pull up two thousand eight call and man, they're they're calling me, this is a low over under a forty four and a half because we've got defensive teams here, I'm hitting two and a half. I'm taking the six on top of it, going through the numbers of three, four or six and seven like you're supposed to do in a traditional teaser.

And that's me. And uh, if you look at the Bears the last two weeks, and this is what scares me with the Bears, that they've won the games, they're putting up big numbers, but you cannot continue to live in the NFL rushing the football for sixty four and fifty four yards. Drabinski needs more balance against the good defense, and uh, if they can't find the running game this week, they'll be in big trouble. I am all about the Minnesota tease. I'm with you, and that is an interesting,

uh point. Obviously the main point of the Bears here when you look at it from the Bears perspective, it will be about I'm gonna say, around eighty four hours between when they leave the field against the Vikings and take the field early Thursday morning on Thanksgiving. So that is an amazingly quick turnaround for an NFL football team.

And in previous years, let's say they were playing some kind of patsy team here, we would talk about it being a total look ahead and that if they had a big number, you know, you should never play the favorite here because obviously they're gonna be thinking about that Thursday game. Maybe they rest players late and don't cover a big spread, but that's not the case. Here. They're playing the Minnesota Vikings arguably their biggest game of the

year today. So tough position for the Chicago Bears to be in here. Cody Parkey by the way of the Bears that should be mentioned hit four consecutive uprights on two extra points and two field goals last week. I don't know that that means anything. In fact, I know it doesn't mean anything, but that's pretty damn incredible. The Bears defense sacked Matt Stafford last week six times. Khalil Mack had two of them. Kalil Mack back from his ankle injury, of course he'll be in the lineup for

the Bears as well. Yeah, thisen, this game is huge. I mean, you got first place implications and absolutely right. I mean, Minnesota is that team that nobody's really talking about right now because they haven't been all that impressive. I mean, remember losing that game the sixteen seventeen point favorites against Buffalo, and it was kind of forget about Minnesota, look elsewhere. But they're sitting at five and three and coming off of buy and this is as big of

a game for them as possible. Um. I couldn't agree with you more. This would be the perfect letdown spot with what Chicago has on deck, but they're not going to overlook um Minnesota. The problem with Chicago simple, it's not a team you really want to back UM as

a favorite. I mean they've done well this year four and oh against the spread, but coming into this year, I think they've covered once as a home favorite and like their last seven or eight games, UM so not a team you really want to be given points more. You want to be getting points with a team like Chicago. UM, and Minnesota's owned them. I mean, this is a series

that's been one sided of late. UM So, I like that Minnesota side for sure, and I can tell you with certainty, UM, Minnesota plus three and on their forty five is the hot sides. You know that that every group that I give accounts to race to get that, to get the plus three even at juice, and to get the under forty five, UM multiple hit it. So. I mean that's a legit move and I agree with it. UM. You're gonna see uh of of one dimension and I Marco nailed it. UM in today's NFL, you just can't

do that. You need more balance. I hope Minnesota comes out and runs the football UM and slows it down for us, because I think this has a good shot of cash in side and total. Minnesota plus the three now two and a half and the Yonder for sure, So I agree with both those hot signs. Alan Robinson last week for the Bears six catches a hundred thirty three yards, two touchdowns. Anthony Miller for the Bears five catches,

a hundred twenty two yards and a touchdown. But the Bears coming off two romps for nine over Buffalo at Buffalo, and then they scored on their first four possessions to grab a twenty six and nothing lead against the Lions last week before holding on. This ain't the Bills or

the Lions. And yeah, so Chicago's a team that I've been watching all season with with Mr Drubiski and um, I've been kind of contrasting my adjusted yards per play with my Justice success rate, and earlier in the season, you know, they were top eight in terms of passing success rate, but in the lower half of the NFL

in terms of yards per times. And this is exactly the dink and dunk stuff that you were talking about, Gil, And the game I'd like to point to is the I think it was a Monday night game against Seattle

where I mean Seattle's defense couldn't stop them. Nothing explosive, but just like just grinding up first downs on then when they came pretty handily, Trabiski's completion rate was up near everything is kind of regress to the mean since then he's down to six completion I'm looking at their success rate now you know, it's still respect the ball nine.

So like, yeah, everything you said Gil about about their their offense and um, you know when I when I run the numbers, I think inevitably the markets are gonna be a little bit too far in Chicago side. Just with the two results that you've talked about. UM, my numbers definitely leaned towards Minnesota. Um, I don't really love the side, just because I just don't know what's going on with this Minnesota team. Came in as a Super Bowl contender. They look kind of mediocre both on the

offensive and defense of the ball. Um by my numbers, so um, and you know my number has it right at fourty four and a half for for the total. So this is this is why I would lean Minnesota side. But otherwise I would stay away from all Right, everybody's sort of leaning in even stronger conviction than leading onto the vikings. Myself included let's go to Sunday Day games. Yeah, I do like a lot. This week, I'm gonna go on something different. I have been given a total off season,

so I'm gonna go with a total this week. You know, I have some sides jumping out. Let's go Carolina and Detroit. Um. You can't look worse than Carolina did, uh last Thursday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, at least defensively, and in fact, all the quotes coming out of Carolina was just how

humbled they got UM by the Pittsburgh Steelers. UM in that game, allowing you know, three nineteen yards, but more importantly twenty three or twenty seven passing for the Steelers, I mean, pretty much perfect and just ran the ball down their throats as well, thirty times for a hundred thirty eight yards. So I think that defense is really being called out this week. UM. And I think they're much better than what they showed and against the Detroit

team that their trajectory has just been downhill. UM since that win against my Ammy in mid October. I mean, there's a team that's lost the Seattle Minnesota Chicago back to back divisional games on the road, and they have Chicago up next on a short week, UM, and again The problem with Detroit is they can't run the football. And if you can't run the football and you're just dropping back the pass, you make it really easy for defense.

So I see Carolina running it down their throats, UM killing, eating up a lot of clock, and Detroit having problems putting up points, kind of like against Minnesota against Seattle where they were able to put up nine and fourteen respectively in both those games. UM, it's got that kind of matchup written all over it. But then you look on the flip side quickly on Detroit team, it's the

defense that isn't great. But other than that Chicago thirty four, they haven't given up all that many points, you know, keeping teams belowd at thirty UM. And if they could do that, this game will stay under that forty nine and a half fifty wherever it sits right now, we bet it under fifty one UM. As soon as the line came out. There is a race that had under, and I agree with that move immediately I got down.

I still think there's value at under. Just get it before it drops even lower under on the Carolina Detroit game. That total right now, it's called forty nine and a half right now across the board. Lions at home early on Sunday. What's your game? Yeah, you know, I'm gonna go with the Thursday night game here. Um, we're looking at green Bay at Seattle, and I don't really know why Seattle is such a favorite. Well, I guess we

should start with green Bay. I know this team has some issues, uh, I mean, they haven't been great on defense and offense given the fact that they have Aaron Rodgers hasn't really impressed and everyone wants Mike McCarthy out, Lisa and the Packers fan base and and I kind of get it. It's kind of one of these relationships that's gone on too long and everyone could use a

fresh start. But on the other side of the ball, I mean I thought of Seattle as uh slightly below average NFL team before the season started, and the numbers completely confirmed that. So they're about a half a point below NFL average by the numbers that I saved for members of my site, And um, you know, I would actually make green Bay one point favorite on the road here. I don't really see any injury situation that makes me

change my mind. I don't, I don't. I don't know if it's Seattle just getting credit for staying close with the Rams last week. I mean they've lost their last two games. Um so green Bay side. I think it's plus two and a half right now at at Seattle as plus three. Definitely like plus three uh in this Thursday night game, green Bay over tease for me, Marco green Bay over. By the way, all five of Seattle's

losses have come by one score this year. Aaron Rodgers seventeen touchdown passes, one pick despite playing with the spring knee, and the Packers have definitely found something in Aaron Jones. They knew it was coming. It was only a matter of time. But Aaron Jones hundred forty five yards rushing two touchdowns last week against the Dolphins in the Packers to twelve win. He leads the NFL with six point

eight yards per carry. Back to back losses to the Chargers in the and the Rams and the Seahawks have allowed seven point three yards per carrying six point five yards per carry, so expect a healthy dose of Aaron Jones tonight. On the other hand, by the way, Seattle they have found their running game. They lead the NFL and rushing in yards per game even found Rashad Petty last week. Uh they're never ending turnstyle of running backs in Seattle Seahawks favored by three ed is on Green

Bay Marco. Yeah, I agree with the old Green Bay Minnesota teaser, the Black and Blue Division time teaser. To take it, as they would say, it's free money, printing money. Take it. I'm gonna go to uh team. I'm gonna go opposite a team that I've been writing for a while and been you know, popping off about their wind record. Now all of a sudden, everybody's putting the stat up on the Chargers that since week blah blah blah they

got the best record. Well, we talked about that three weeks go here on the show, and they're now seventeen and four straight up their last games. You look at it. But now I'm gonna go the other way. Now everybody's talking about the Chargers and they're the fashionable sleeper and look out for them because here they come. Well, let's break them down a little bit further. I always pointed out that that seventeen and four mark the four losses came to New England Casey last year in the Rams

and KC this year. Four very good teams obviously, uh with their four losses. So this is a team that you know, you take those four out. Man, there's seventeen and oh but let's look at the wins this year, and people are just overlooking the fact that the Chargers right now, they're at a pretty soft schedule that they've run through with this winning streak, they've won six in

a row. In that six game streak, you have San Francisco, you had Oakland that I can't even call a football team right now, You had Cleenland, you beat your best winning team that you beat with Tennessee, and that way was in London on a bonehead decision to go for two when that game should have went the overtime. Tennessee at all the momentum in the second half of that game, and then a deep Seattle who's barely a winning team, and then Oakland again. I think Denver has a great

shot here. Nobody's talking about. This line is too high in my opinion, because San next, the Rams and Sanity I'd still called San Diego. The two l A teams have the least home field advantage of any of the NFL teams, and right now the Chargers have the least because you go to you know, nobody's going to the games. Uh, Denver is coming off thereby they're the better defense. Right now, I gotta take the points. You give me the points

with the better defense. And given the schedule that the Chargers have faced, when you say that in recent weeks, case team is going to be the cup of quarterback that you've you've faced they did face Russell Wilson, I'll retract that. That's not saying a big statement. I'm going with Denver plus the points. And uh, you'll be hearing me say Denver a second time when you ask me another question. Denver catching seven here at Los Angeles at Stubub Center. It's not a stadium, it's not an arena,

it's a center. Chargers though, for everybody who says, uh, you know, they don't have home field, they tend to win there quite often, but they tend to win everywhere. As you point out, Marco, Uh, and the Chargers do get the Cardinals at home next week. So the Chargers on the CUSP, if they can get by the Broncos and the Cardinals of being nine and two, the team

that that move from Mexico City to Los Angeles. Potentially benefited the most is the l A Chargers, who makes it that much more likely the Chiefs lose that game, as they have to now actually play at the Rams home field. And if that's the case, if the Chiefs lose, their Chargers win Chargers one game back. Eaves do have the tiebreaker though, having beaten the Chargers earlier this season, and they have the second head to head at home.

But just saying the Chargers will only be one game back in the standings, it is not fated accompli that, as great as the Chiefs have been that they win this division still in the driver's seat. But I'm just saying that move from Stadi O Steca in Mexico City to Los Angeles could potentially have helped the Chargers more

than anybody. All Right, gentlemen, before we get to the Thursday night thoughts, and Ed's already given his Thursday Night thoughts, remember support for the show, as always comes to us from bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu a staple of my betting arsenal. It should be for you as well. It has been an industry leader for close to thirty years.

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Chances are your sports book follows their line. Again, they're making markets and replays. Will replays be overturned? You could have bet there as to whether or not that game would have been moved from Mexico City to l A. The no was plus one. Early on Tuesday, people made a quick nickel doing that. It's bookmaker dot you slash gill. If you want to join right now and claim an

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the under in this game. Short week, I think you're gonna see both teams try to run the football a little bit. I'm taking under as we see these primetime games get pumped up on the total, and I think it's too high based on RAM Seattle. This is not Ram Seattle. Hey, so this is a really good Thursday night game because both teams needed the proverbial must win situation Packers four four and one and the Seahawks four and five. I would argue that the Packers schedule moving

forward is a little easier. Seahawks still have a gauntlet here the rest of the way. Seahawks caught a huge break that Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt, because if he was still playing for the Niners, it would be a horrific nine game stretch to close the season. Or maybe they have an easy game late, but basically a really tough schedule. They had to play the Chargers in the Rams. They got the Packers here. They got another tough game at Carolina next week. Huge in terms of playoff possibilities. The

outcome of this one, how do you see it? Yeah? I agree with Marco. I like the under in this game. Also, I think it's one of those matchups where you're gonna see just a of running the football from both of these teams, even though you have two great quarterbacks. I think you're going to see a lot of trying to establish the run, not just come out throwing the football, because both have had success doing that. Um. You look both of these teams, especially over the last four weeks.

Seattle's really run the football well. Um. And you look at I mean green Bay the last four weeks. In Seattle the entire season pretty much, um, except for that game against Chicago where they lost by a touchdown. They they've been running the football really well. So I think you're gonna see more of that tonight, and hopefully that clock keeps ticking and we could get a lower scoring game.

I agree with Marco. Let's go under green Bay Seattle, alright, totally at forty nine right now in this ball game tonight. All right, gentlemen, final two questions. I've had to uh doctor this first one because there are just not that many candidates. The big favorite most likely to lose outright, I gotta drop this down to five and a half

as a parameter to include four games. So there's New Orleans ed. New Orleans eight and a half point favorites at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. New Orleans Marco teaser alert. Uh, the Chargers seven point favorites at home against the Broncos. Teaser alert Chargers Arizona.

How bad are the Raiders that? The Arizona Cardinals are five and a half point favorites at home against Oakland and then um the game that was flexed out, Pittsburgh five and a half point favorites on the road against three and six Jacksonville and a f C Divisional playoff rematch if you will at Jacksonville. Which are those big favorites the biggest on the board anyway, is the most likely to lose out right? In your opinion? Ed? Yeah,

I'm gonna go with New Orleans losing to Philly. Uh. Philly's clearly been a disappointment, a little bit of Super Bowl hangover, kind of look average on both sides of the ball. When you look at New Orleans. Yeah, so they can definitely move the ball. But after a brief blip last year of having an average defense, they're back to the bottom of the league the thirtie in when I look at adjusted yards per play their twenty nine and adjusted success rate for the defense. Um, I don't

know what's going on. Marshall Latimer is not playing as well. I mean he was kind of the rookie that came in last year at cornerback, and uh, you know, my my numbers, uh make New Orleans about a five point favorite here. So uh and I just you know, I just can just see this as a game that Philly goes in and and and wins this game. Out right, Um, going with the Saints is the team most likely lose. Out right. Should be pointed out that the Eagles, Saints, Broncos, Chargers,

and Raiders Cardinals three games that we just mentioned. Among those four are the three afternoon games. So every game this weekend of the early games, every game Sunday morning four points spreads or lower. Every single game, with the exception of the game that got flexed out. The other one in this equation Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, which is now an early game Marco, which is the favorite of the

biggest ones most likely to lose out right. Well, as I said, I like Denver od I think they have a good chance to go in there and pull the upset off of the bye week. You know, I like to take teams that went into the bye week ugly. You can't go into the bye week any uglier than Denver did. And you know, so you know they should be focused and prepared to give their best effort in

being a division game. And really, um, as far as the coach goes, I really think Evans Joseph is uh coaching for his job here if there's no seat hotter than his in the NFL right now, and uh, you know they lose this one out of the break and that I don't know if Denver is a team that franchise it likes to fire mid season, but this would be the candidate for it to happen. Geez, how many coaching openings are there gonna be the day after this season ends. You might even get an offer that there

might be ten openings. Literally, they might be ten, because there's gonna be some teams that you don't expect like maybe a Dallas or a Seattle, or a Baltimore or a Washington if they don't make the playoffs. More Yeah, John Harbon rumored to be on the on the hot seat as well. We'll see. Hey, same question, which are the big favorites of the biggest anyway those four is the most likely to lose that right, I'm going with the Chargers too. I think Denver's live in this game.

UM Charges look great obviously, excuse me, winning sixth grade games covering for their last five. But if you look at Denver UM even in their losses, if you look over the last few I mean throw out the Jets game UM and at the road at Baltimore, but they've lost close games, meaning against Houston that was a game they only lost by two against the Zone, and they beat them against the Rams at home, only lost that one by three. UM even against Kansas City only by

a touchdown. So they're able to hang in the games. And if you're able to do that, you're obviously able to win a game. And I think Denver is that one that could throw a wrench and ruin a lot of teasers. On Sunday we saw last week, right out of the gate, a couple of those favorites went down and eliminated all the exotics for the books. Um, this one I think has the makings of of helping them

out too. I could see Denver winning this one. Let's not forget they got embarrassed last time winning the San Diego lost that game twenty one. Nothing got shut out. Never want that to happen. So maybe a little extra incentive, I'll take Denver in this one. Alright, thirteen games in the NFL this week, gentlemen, six teams on by of those thirteen games, Let's say we lived in a world now Cincinnati and Baltimore does not have a line. I

should point that out. The reason there is no line for the Cincinnati Baltimore games because we don't know if Joe Flacco is gonna play. Joe Flacco with hip injuries, uh so, no decision on whether he will be behind center for the Ravens or if it will be Lamar Jackson, the Ravens first round pick from this year, if he will be behind center, or Ladies and gentlemen party like it's could it gay? Could it be Robert Griffin the

third behind center for the Baltimore Ravens. And if it's r G three, you know that this spread is gonna be like minus twenty four or something in favor of the Ravens, something like that. I'm thinking, no, no, not minus Donny More. All right, maybe I got that part whatever. I'm on steroids from my arm by the way right now, so maybe maybe that was Maybe I was wrong about

that anyway, So there's no line for that. But of the other games, the other twelve, if you had to pick a side in every one of them, but you were allowed one pass, maybe maybe it is Cincinnati Baltimore, if it was Lamar or Robert Griffin, I don't know. Maybe we throw that into the mix. Which would it be though, ed, Yeah, thanks for asking me that. First. You're welcome, probably welcome. I want no part of Oakland

at Arizona. So if Rams versus Chiefs is like me Weather versus Pacio, this game is Chloe versus Kim Kardashian. I mean, seriously, Arizona is a five point favorite in this game? Would they be a five point favorite against Alabama?

Like this team is not good and but yet I mean the narrative with Oakland is oh, they're tanking, and you know, Gruden's in there and it's first year, and you know, I've just done some interesting things with getting all these first round picks for next year and um, and you know, there's some underlying metrics that suggests Oakland isn't as bad as as they appeared to be on the scoreboard. But I mean, I want no part of

this game. We got into that conversation this week on on a numbers game on Visa, and I think we did throughout the whole network because Jeff Sherman at the West Gate, uh, and John Murray at the Westgate got into this whole hypothetical and this happens about once a year. What happens if the best team in college football played the worst team in the pros. And before this past weekend, the Buffalo Bills were the target. Right before h you knew that it was gonna be a route of the Jets,

So it was Alabama versus the Bills. What would be that line? And John Murray came out with thirty five, to which Jeff Sherman responded, Uh no, I'd go twenty eight and a half as as if as Chrissie Andrews heard the twenty and a half and we're at the south point. He goes, really a half, like you've got it, You've got it calib rated that much that you put

a half on it. Anyway, it's it's a ridiculous conversation as always, you know, but that, but that's kind of fun, right, because like Alabama's got the better quarterback and not by a little bit. Well, well, we always say, here's the thing that we always say. I always preface it by saying, listen, it's a hypothetical. It's never gonna happen. So with that respect,

it's dumb. But I I am the one person who does say after that, at least at our network, who says, but it is a fascinating It is fascinating to note that if that game, let's say, did happen, that the handle, just like Mayweather McGregor, would be through the roof. People would bet on it like crazy, And it's a reflection of how our brains are wired, right, It's part of the human condition. We love that conversation. We love two things from two different disciplines pitted against each other. That

fascinates us. By the way, he went on to say, the Cleveland Cavaliers versus Duke the Duke Blue Devils, who have played at that time just one basketball game against Kentucky. And he said, and he said, Cavaliers minus twenty two and a half. I love, I love, I love the number minus twenty two and a half. I'll think plus twenty two and a half. Will you really? Oh yeah, man, Zion is good. R J. Barrett is great. To my goodness,

that dude Blue Devil's team. Literally, I saw one game against Kentucky and I was like, the college basketball season is over. I don't need to see any more. It was really that impressive. I mean it really was. Never want to make, never want to make too much of one game, but man, they were impressive. It's all I need to see the it's it's all an exhibition from here on now. By the way, William Hill offering will they go undefeated at twenty one? Not nearly high enough

for me? Not nearly high enough. Alright, Marco, same question, which of these games you want no part of it's it is probably gonna be a sweep. You can't play a game like this where you know what Oakland's intentions aren't And that's the tank I mean, it's clear what they're doing, But do you want to lay this number with Arizona? You just can't with an offense. How can you play points with the team that has scored fourteen, eighteen seventeen the last four games and ask them to

cover a number. Well, I guess you could do it against the team that scored six and three in their last two games. But I can't do it if Oakland has any pride, if I'm a player on that team, and you know you, everybody's got to hear because it's there's not one single talk show that has not talked about. This is the one game Openen definitely has to lose if they want to secure the number one. You know, uh draft pick blah blah blah. It ain't hard dead stuff.

You know what's gonna end up happening. They're gonna lose. It's gonna be on a late field goal and it'll probably sneak in under the number. I'm not I'm not there for. I won't even watch this game. I do not buy. First of all, I how many times will red Zones show this game? I wonder in the course of the entire game. I wonder how many times they'll flip to it. I was all over Gorden being a

clown before the season. I never bought into it. And this whole thing where they're like, oh, this was the plan to trade all these players and accumulate these draft picks. That's a hunk of bullshit too, because that wasn't their plan. Their plan was to be competitive. They traded for Jordy Nelson, their season win total was eight and a half. And then when they started sucking and they made the ridiculous decision to trade Khalil mac that's when their planned quickly

became Oh my god, it's like a slippery hope to hell. Yeah, that's been our plan all the way. Yeah, we just want to accumulate draft picks. Here's the other thing about accumulating draft picks. You actually have to have people who know how to pick players by the time they By the time they get here to Vegas, they are going to be a skeleton of crap. Like it's just gonna be miserable. Once they get to Vegas. They will not have Derek Carr by that time either, Ace, which game

you want no part of. And that one is actually more bettable to me than than Tampa Bay in the New York Giants. I mean, that's a game I want no parts of. I mean, the Giants won their Super Bowl last Monday Night. That that's the only game that that matters. I mean, they got Philly in Washington left on their schedule, but they're playing for nothing. They won Monday night football. That's a moral victory for them. Um.

And then you got Tampa Bay. There's a team that's minus twenty one in turnovers over the last seven weeks. Just think about that, minus twenty one in turnovers four those last seven games, they've had turned the bowl over at four times per game four the seven. You can't win football games like that, you can. I mean we know just going in if you could foresee who's gonna win the turnover battle, you'll cash six out of tend tickets. Um. And this team turns it over three or four times

a game. So I can't bet Tampa Bay at a pick them pretty much. And I can't bet the Giants either after last week getting their win and more get Finally, the last fact last year these two teams played, Tampa was minus two and a half. They won by two. Landed right there on the number this is a game I want nothing to do with. To stay away from me. Giants on the short week after beating the Niners in the final minute on Monday Night for their second win

of the year, Tampa Bay. If you see that Tampa Bay Redskins box score from last week, Tampa Bay gained four hundred and nine nine yards of offense, scored three points. We have not seen that in our lifetime. Turnover margin, as you point out, Ace minus four, that's all mattered. Six two three Redskins Paper Tiger week. They're three or four turnovers every week from that team. Skins six three win Paper Tiger atop the NFC East by two games. Two games Skins. By the way, do you think the

Skins get there? I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure. They got to play the Eagles twice. That ain't good. We shall see. Man, what an interesting week because again, as you look down this slate, we just we just mentioned all the games that were above four points, Green Bay Seattle Thursday night three points, Carolina Detroit is four, Dallas Atlanta three with extra juice, Cincinnati both the more

we don't know, Minnesota, Chicago. We talked about two and a half Tennessee, Indianapolis one and a half in favor of the Colts Houston Washington, Houston by three on the road, Tampa Bay and the Giants Giants by one at home, on and on and on, and then of course the Monday Night or the Rams three and a half by favorites there. It's just a man, it is a field goal league. It is a game of plink Oh. I hope the plinko lands in the slot that you needed to this weekend. Good luck with all your bets in

the NFL. And as always for Ace and Marco and Ed, thank you so much, man, appreciate it. Thank you so much for listening.