Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview

x Main League and win five thousand dollars. But more to the point for everybody who listens to this show, if you enter promo code Gil that's Gilt with two l's on sign up and you're the top beating the Book score excer. At the end of the regular season, you are going to be on the megapod for wild Card weekend with Me, Marco and Ace to discuss your NFL trading prowess. We look forward to that again. It's the score x dot com. To find all the download links,

Megan happened. We'd love for you to be the guy. By the way, I tweeted out the current standings. Those are on my Twitter at Beating the book. It is very competitive, not too late to join to try to compete with those at the top. Right now on the show today, as usual, the staples of the show on my right, from wage to Talk thirty nine years into business Marco to Angelo. Good morning, Marco, I'm doing very well. How are you? As the real question? You doing good?

Last week was one of those weeks of the super Contest in Classic where I share an entry. I was four and one in gold I was five and oh and I picked up all of one game. It was such a it was such a everybody did well kind of week in the NFL. This is a very funny week because lots of huge lines like eight different lines of a touchdown or more in the NFL will get into it momentarily. On my left is always on the show. Out of the sports betting diaspora. Ace, what's happening? Man?

Never better, bro. I got coming off a terrible Sunday in the NFL. That was my worst week of the year. I mean just everything went went wrong, you know. Fortunately I didn't give out two month volume, didn't bet a lot of volume, but I just could not win for nothing on Sunday. Are you allowed to talk? About that boxing thing you were just talking about off air. You're not allowed to talk about it. Yeah, yeah, absolutely mentioned it to the people. Mention it to the people. Yeah.

They're now that the UFC signed the deal with h ESPN, they're asked to produce more content and obviously you know the UFCS, UFC's embraced sports betting and wants to start create more content covering it from that aspect um. And they they're creating a new show for ESPN plus that they asked me to be a part of. And we're actually with the next pay per view UFC that's coming up the first week of December. Um, will be the

first episode that we that airs. Um. You know, I'm just coming on to probably do a segment and cover it from the Vegas angle. UM. But I'm just glad to be asked to do it. You know, thousands of people covered the sports. So I'm just congratulations out to me, Congratulations to you. I'm excited. No, that's awesome. Uh, thankfully or hopefully they don't listen to this podcast, because the second they do, you are out. They're gonna be like this guy camp life right years Pat, Because I built

the reputation that's I just mess it with you. Congratulations for real. Couldn't be happy this week and last week at the Truths of the Truth. Man, I'm two and seven on on best Bets for the podcast this year. I can't put it any other way. I mean, truth be told. I I document everything, my bets on my head. You know. I'm I've been a decent NFL year. I just my best bets. I just can't win, man, I don't. I don't know what it is. Let me let me

introduce the guests. Let me introduce the guests. We're very happy for you, though. I am very happy for you. First time on the show, first time on the show, and has been here in uh in Vegas all these years, twenty years in sports broadcasting, hosting sports talk radio. I played golf with him Super Contest weekend last year and uh he tried everything possible to get me into uh lots of trouble. So I appreciate him for that. He's now hosting sports X Radio over at seven twenty k

d w N here in Las Vegas. Ladies and gentlemen, Ken Thompson, thank you Ken for doing this. Alexander. I appreciate you and anything you know, doing anything with a Sir Marco always always solid. But you guys do a great job. We can week down to step in for Brady Cannon. Then I feel honored. Yeah, Brady, who was on the first week of this year's podcast. Brady's always on a week one. He's kind of a tradition. So I asked Brady, and Brady was like, no, but I

got Ken right here. Brady couldn't do it on short notice, so we appreciate you stepping in. Let's begin, gentlemen, with the Monday night game. Monday Night. Oh, they don't get any worse than this. Giants at San Francisco can I'm gonna start with you. I'm not even gonna elaborate. Usually I go through a whole litany of stats. Uh, suffice it to say the Giants are coming off of by their one in seven. Eli Manning is still their quarterback.

San Francisco coming off extra rest here. When last we saw them, they were playing on a Thursday night where they completely destroyed the Oakland Raiders. Uh you're Oakland Raiders. Sorry to lead with that, Ken. San Francisco is two and seven. The Niners are three point favorites here Nick Mullins was the starter that day when two sixty two three touchdowns note pics a one fifty one point nine passer rating, just a completely outlying pro debut. Amazing performance.

But you couldn't have a worse game in terms of fan interest. From a betting standpoint, any value here are you betting this? And if so, which way? Yeah? I am betting it actually, And you know what I'm gonna look at. I looked at both sides and the Giants coming off of by always intriguing. Even on the team's one and seven, I'm looking at this team saying, you know what, we got eight games to go. We're not making the postseason, but let's go out. Let's make Beckham health,

you know, happy, Let's uh throw the ball around. Let's try and get some protection on the offensive line, which

has been you know, just absolutely pathetic. I mean between them and of course watching the Raiders like I do every week, watching those offensive lines, it's just been tough to even watch football, you know, with that low uh, you know, just percentage of being able to block one on one and uh, you know, when I watched this Giant team, they just don't they just don't have it, but coming off to buy, you know they're gonna go

up against Mullins. They've got film on him. Now. Look, I followed Mullens's career at Southern Miss. The kids got talent in a wide open offense, and I think the kid can make it. But it's a big game for him because he's going to get the start over Bethard. Bethard's still a little bit banged up, but it's a chance to show Shanahan that hey, I'm your number two guy when Garoppolo comes back, so I think you know

you'll get his best effort. I looked at the weather, sixty degrees around kickoff, no wind, giants off of by going to air it out a little bit more try and get back a more involved I really think that this game has a chance to go over the forty four points, even though the two average under forty two between them. I'm looking at this game with great weather, no wind coming into play. Normally the Bay Area around this time, even Santa Clara, you're gonna get some win

come into play. But it looks like a perfect fork asked for points to be scored. And let's say so when you got one and seven and two and seven. They have nothing to loose. Throw the ball around, you know, entertain the Monday night crowd because they don't have a flex schedule like the Sunday night game. So entertain some people. And uh Ogle Tree is still questionable with the hamstring, so that hurts the Giants a little bit on defense as well. But I'm gonna play over the total of

forty four in this game. Over the total forty four. I lived at the Bear for twenty one years, and I often said in my two decades there, that's the area of the country that global warming helped the most. It is much more mild, to your point, Ken Uh this time of year than it ever was, say, ten or fifteen years ago. It's very interesting how the climate has changed there. This is in Santa Clara, obviously closer to Silicon Valley, San Francisco as we speak. This is Uh.

The juice is moving a little on this. It's three with extra juice. Consensus in favor of the home standing Niners here and Nick Mullins is getting the start. It was a Kyle Shanahan decision. It's almost as if C. J. Bethard could have gone in this game. But chan A hand is actually making the decision. It appears to go with Nick Mullins. It's it's a little unclear, but it

sounds to me that way. Uh. Nick Mullins, though, Marko, if I go to you this because if I, if I have gleaned anything from your talks through the years, Marco, there's certain things that I like to call Marco is ms and let me just guess that one of your talking points here will be. This is different though, because even though Mullins started that game, we didn't really know he was starting till day of game, literally hours beforehand. Here the Giants have had all the time to prepare

for him. Yeah, and I'm just gonna open this game with saying, uh, one of the greatest movie lines of all time from The Godfather. Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in fucking giants him again. It's a it's a Monday night game off the bias, Ken said, but more importantly, whenever you're one in seven, Okay, the season's over for him. We all know it's been over for some time. But these are old professionals and it's a standalone, nationally televised game on a Monday night

they don't want to be embarrassed again. If they're gonna come to play, this is the game they come to play. And as you said, yes, it's easier for a quarterback you know, to go in there, you know, almost cold. I mean they didn't tell anybody until you said hours before then we saw that line move like crazy on that Thursday night game. Now he's had a long time to think about it. And is Keen pointed out too, there's at least one game a film to look at.

I like the Giants in this spot, and I will say that this probably will be if the Giants don't find a way to get the money here in this one. There's just no way that you can back them at any point the rest of the season. This is the type of game that if they're gonna show up, it's here. They've had two weeks to try to come up with a game plan to fix that offense that has been absolutely horrific. I'll go ahead and give him the shot.

I got the Giants winning this all right, little pre flop bet for Marco on this one, Ace I won't belabor at Giant San Francisco Monday night, obviously not what they anticipated when they made this schedule, the folks over at Monday Night Football didn't expect a combined three wins between these two teams at that time. But they thought Jimmy Garoppolo would be the quarterback for the Niners, and they thought the Giants would actually be a credible football team.

Neither obviously the case right here. Yeah, bottom line is one of our greatest assets, as better as the ability to pass. I mean, you can't lose money you don't put in the middle. And the bottom line is, if you don't love a game, I mean really feel like you have an edge, you're just gambling. And if you're laying one ten to flip a coin, you're setting yourself up for long term uh, you know, losing your bank roll eventually. I mean, you just can't continue to practice

like that and expect good results. Um, and this is one of those games. If you don't love going in, there's no reason to put your money to on. You'll find better spots to get down. You have a one and seven team against the two and seventeen. Uh, you know, three wins between them. Uh, here's what I can tell you. Not in the groups that I provide accounts four touched this game so far, but hit that I ship, uh share info with He told me his guy's best San

Francisco minus three. Actually text me this morning and said, you're not gonna if you like the San franc side. By mid afternoon, you won't find threes. There'll be three and a half or three minus twenty five. They're supposed to hit it today, so if you see that happen, his group hit it. Um, so obviously they like something in San Francisco. But personally I don't like this game. Um. I listening to Kenny, he kind of made sense. You know you've got two teams not playing for much. Um,

it takes a little more effort to play defense. So I see that for sure. Um. But for me, I don't want to waste any of the listeners time, Like I said, unless something strong comes in from sources other than myself. Um, this is a pass for me. Yeah, man, for me, this is exactly like that San Francisco Oakland game. And I said this on Visa on the Numbers game uh Monday through Friday series SEXUM channel two A four, where I said, hey, um, I'm not betting this pre flop.

I'm gonna watch a driver to which is exactly what I did in a San Francisco Oakland game. Then you have the information right there where you're like, oh, Oakland really does suck ass. So it was a live betting tour to force on the Niners. It was just a Niners flood the rest of that game. And that's how I think you bet this game. I think you wait to watch a little bit of it and then jump in. That's how I'd prefer to bet it. Anyway. I'm with

you as no pre flop for me. Sunday night, gentlemen, Dallas at Philadelphia, NFC East game between the reeling Cowboys for at three and five and the Eagles here who are very poised now in the NFC East with the Redskins offensive line being decimated and the Giants being in the uh seller of the division to really recapture their dominance of this division. Now, I do a guessing line show on Monday, as you guys know, both on the podcast and at Vison, and I guessed before I got

to see Dallas play tennis, see Marco. I guessed four and a half in this game NFC East game. Usually back in the day, this was always three points, but Dallas kind of reeling. I said four and a half, and Tim Fitzgerald over the South Point, who was filling in for Christie this week, said to me six, and I couldn't believe it. I was like, wow, Philadelphia by six,

like that seems really high. And then Dallas went ahead and laid an egg, and it's seven now, and I kind of get the seven now more than I did the six. Then. Nonetheless, that's the consensus number. The Eagles favored by a full touchdown over a Dallas team that hasn't won a game on the road yet this year, and Philly's got the extra rest here. How do you feel,

Marco about this one? I don't feel really good. It's an ugly thing that we got to look at the Cowboys two prime time games in a row, and you talk about getting screwed by the schedule makers. You got them off of a Monday night game, have to come back on a short week play on Sunday against the team that was on a by I mean, that's just not supposed to happen. And it's a division in games, so you know, I mean, it's added advantage to Philadelphia

in this spot. You look at it, you know, and over the years, you know, when we talk about situational spots, it's always been a good play to jump on a team that you know, look bad on Monday Night football. And once again Dallas looked bad. He really couldn't get anything going, uh nothing in the second half. Why they quit running Zeke Elliott is beyond me. There's no reason that they should have only ran the football nineteen times

in that game. You know, I know that they ended up losing by two scores, but it was a tie game into the third quarter. You're it's not like you're playing catch up and you have to throw on every down. They don't have the balance. And if this team doesn't have balance on offense, they've got no shot. And since they added a Marii Cooper, you would think it would have made life even easier for Elliott because they do have to uh worry about a past threat now with

having a big play receiver. Granted he was only into the system for a week, but they made a you know, an effort to go to him on Monday night. Maybe almost too much. I look at this one, There's only one way for me to play it. Even though Dallas uh is still ranked number four defensively at five point three yards per play, and uh, Philadelphia is at twenty

one with its six yards a play. Uh. Normally I would take the better defensive team getting points, but I think if you're gonna do this, the way to go with it is tease, UH Philadelphia down, get them down to minus one on the teaser. I don't see Dallas going into Philadelphia and winning, but I'm not comfortable laying the full touchdown, so I will have Philadelphia on teasers. Agree with that. That's exactly what I would do with this game, Philly on the tease, do not see Dallas

winning it. Marco, by the way, thank you for not having two consecutive cursing outbursts. I appreciate that that was very, very very passionate of you in that first game. I have to tell you, Uh, I don't usually go after announcer and ounce or cruise or anything like that, because you know, we all make mistakes. We're all annoying at times, for sure. But can I just say about Joe Testa Tour and Jason Witten that I cannot deal anymore with these guys that four yard passed. I mean, this is

like item number ten this year. But that four yards slanting out that a Maori Cooper scored on did they think that was picasso? Like? How many times do you see a four yard slanting out? And they talked about it like it was it gives the greatest play they'd ever seen in their lives. It's driving me nuts anyway, he see your thoughts here, Yeah, this is typical NFC East. You know, these two teams know each other so well at home field advantage usually doesn't mean much. You look

at last season the road team one twice. Um. But with that said, I was surprised the line was this high as well. I mean slight power rating wise. I had it lower, um like you did, and he just of off the top of my head, it looked a little bit too high. But the more you look into it, I mean, Dallas hasn't won a single road game all year. Um. You know, you look at little things like that, and you could see why and it was shaded a little higher. You know, they haven't covered a road game all season.

In fact, they score about six almost a touchdown less per game on the road, um than they do at you know overall, um, so it's pretty hard to win football games like that where I think the value lies is on the total um and it sounds square, you know, going over on a prime time game. But but here's why. When you look at this matchup, the only thing that really sticks out is is defense. You know, you have h two teams that are having a pretty good year

at least points around. Defensively, Dallas is third in the NFL, Philadelphia's fifth in the NFL. Both allound less than twenty points a game. And then you look at the flip sign, how are they offensively points scored? Dallas is phill least one. So it looks like the perfect you know, situation for a low scoring game. But those type of that type

of information factored into the betting line. In fact that I I believe that it shaded because of that, meaning this becomes the perfect storm for value on the over. You know, you have the perception of the fact these are two good defenses, um, so you're gonna shade the line a little bit shorter on the total um. Uh. And then a couple that with if they are really good defenses, you know that that leads to turnovers, that

leads to short fields. It doesn't necessarily mean low scoring. UM. So for me, I think there's some value on that over. The only thing that scares me is it's prime time. You know, if this was in Sunday afternoon, I definitely be on the over. UM. I mean on the under.

But the fact that it's prime time scares me a little bit, UM because you do see some things happen late in in prime time games where it doesn't not as much on a Sunday afternoon, and because of that, sometimes the scoring gets out of hand late in the game. But otherwise I think the uh, the the over is good in this one. Uh. You know, forty three is where it's sitting right now. UM. I just think that's the only way you could play it. I like Marco's

idea with tease in it. Dallas hasn't won a single road game UM this year, and I think Philly is better than their form. Poor record reflects, UM can't lay the seven man. To me, it's it's got to be the over past total tease game for me, you know, me all I advocate is the teasers these days. I'm

all about that. Forty three is. In fact, the total is the second lowest total on the board this weekend in the NFL, A full touchdown higher than the single lowest total, which is on the Buffalo Bill's Jets game, which that thirty six and a half right now, A curious line in that game that is coming down through the key number of seven. Now that Josh McCown is the quarterback and Sam Donald is not very peculiar move from my standpoint. Let's see if somebody picks that game later.

We'll get to that. I stray as far as this game Dallas at Philly on Sunday Night mentioned Marii Cooper with the Cowboys and how tested Tour and Witten just were slabbing all over that play. That was Cooper's debut for the Cowboys, and obviously par of the Cooper acquisition is Let's see how good Doc really is. Let's surround him with as much as we can and really evaluate

this kid. This is the first game for Philadelphia. They already know what they have in Carson Wentz, but this is their first game with Golden Tate, who was traded to them from the Detroit Lions. I was amazed at the trade deadline. This was a great NFL trade deadline, the best one ever. But I was amazed at how teams were so willing to trade key players in conference, and Golden Tate from Detroit to Philadelphia was maybe the

most amazing of those to me. And I'm kind of alone, Like, I don't think anybody is similarly amazed by this, Like I'm like, wow, Like, why would you trade that? I get it, it's not in division, but you might compete with Phi. Last I don't think Philly's gonna win the NFC's but I was amazed that they would trade him to a team in conference. Didn't seem to bother the Lions. And so Carson Wentz will have Golden Tate at his disposal for the first time in this one. Ken, what

do you think here? Man? Now you could say it's square or whatever. There's a two teams that are going in opposite directions. Philadelphia's four and four could easily be six and to come off to buy Look, Wentz is probably as close to a dent now then he has been all season. And you look at their four Their next five games are inside the NFC East. They know this is where they take care of business. They blow past the Redskins, forget Dallas, forget the Giants. Don't even

let him breathe. And Philly's gonna be back with a shot to go back to the super Bowl. They have eight games to get things together. They know they're nonconference games are all against first place teams at New Orleans, at the Rams, Houston at home. So those are tough games nonconference wise. What do you do? You take care of business inside your own division. Should be a nice night. Forty five degrees, no win there in Philly again, off to buy. Marco made a good point Dallas coming off

the shore week. Look, they're gonna miss left guard Connor Williams. That hurts Jaylen Mills probably misses for Philadelphia as far as in the secondary. But I think Philadelphia will win this game by double digits. I know again you look at it, it's NFC East, it's division versus division. I'm telling you there's sometimes you look at teams where they're based on their name. Dallas is one of those teams. Trust me. I've been doing a Raiders post game show

here in town. The Raiders are based off their name. People wanted to, you know, jump on the Raiders. They want to jump on on this week double digits. There are certain teams that are just bad this Dallas team. Yet they put a cosmetic band aid on the wide receiver position, like grabbing a Mariy Cooper. First off, it's too late. Second of all, I've watched the Marie Cooper the last two years. He's had three good games. Guys dropped more passes than almost anybody in the league. So

again you're trying to salvage the season. But again there's too much film out on Dak Prescott. He's very predictable. Ezekiel Elliott now not getting the holes he used to when they had a tight end. Look at Dallas through all these years, whether it's Dupre or Nova check, you go on and on and on and Witten. For how many years they always had the great tight end as

the safety valve. They no longer have that. It's not I mean if Colt Beaves is your number one option and then you go out and you grab a Mariy Cooper, I mean you're in some trouble offensively, and the offensive line not been what it's been in the past. I'm telling you Philly is gonna blow them out in this game. I like it. Couldn't agree more about Amara Cooper and they traded a first form. Let's point that out. And and your first comment like you might think this is square, man,

let me tell you again that is. I am on a year long, if not seasons long, crusade now to push back against people who think certain plays are square, because I think, if anything, the pendulum has swung to the point where people now make plays they're more interested

in sounding smart than they are to win money. And I call it the too the too cool for school crowd that you know again New England Chicago a few weeks ago when everybody was on Chicago, I'm like, really like with with all that passion, I just think that that's a interesting phenomena happening. So I'm with you there, Philadelphia. You like them not only to win it, but to cover going away on Sunday night. Let's start with Sunday games,

we please, real quick. The other thing I want to say is the wake up call they got in the fourth quarter when they blew a seventeen nothing lead to Carolina at home. Trust me, that's in the back of their minds. If they get a lead, they're gonna keep pushing the peddle talking about the Eagles there. In that case, yes, the Eagles squandering a seventeen to nothing fourth quarter lead against the Panthers a couple of weeks, a couple of games ago, I should say for the Eagles, it's a

great point. Man Ace DIBs on Sunday, what you got this week? I do like some games, boy, I really do feel feel good about this week. I'm gonna go to a home dog. I'm never bad play, and I'm gonna go against the red hot And maybe that's why I'm getting a little bit of trouble in these best bets getting in front of red hot teams. But that's what I'm gonna do this week and go against the New England Patriots who are laying six and happy you

get seven minus one twenty. By Sunday it'll be seven at more spons But right now to cost the minus one um to get that seven, I don't think you're gonna need it. Um, listen, man, I think this line is just way too high. That's the bottom line here. Um. Granted, Tennessee's offense and we all know how lethargic it's been and um, but don't look now. They put up forty seven points the last two games, so seeing a little life because they're running the football. And that's when they've

had success, even early in the season. I mean, when they ran the ball for a hundred fifty yards thirty five times, they beat Jacksonville. When they run it for fourteen times for fifty five yards, they lose the Baltimore at home. That's what happens. This team needs to run the football. They did so against the Chargers and almost one night game thirty three rushes for a hundred sixty four yards. And they did it last week against Dallas

again running the football. Um, I think you're gonna see a lot of that this week against the New England Patriots. Another thing I really like in this matchup is all the connections between these two teams. I mean, Rabel makes it no secret. Um, he talks to Belichick every single week. In fact, he's leaned on him since he's become a coach. And what's funny, he's rabe Um. Rabel got cut and sent to whatever Kansas City or traded and he didn't talk to bell Check for like a year. He was mad, um.

But you know then they became friends when he became a coach. And he says he talks to him pretty much every week. Um. What that said, there's even more connections if you dig deeper. You have the general manager for the Titans was a scout for the Patriots. You have defensive coordinator Dan P's. You have cornerbacks and logan lion Malcolm Butler. You got running back Dion Lewis. You have a lot of information in that Titans locker room. Um that I think that though, they're gonna be able

to benefit from. And again, any time you have a defense like the Titans, I think the backdoor stays open. You know. I've been pushing that fem a lot, um And in the NFL, it's it's true. We see that all the time, where where teams that UH have defenses are are able to hang in games and get that backdoor cover. And I think that's what you're gonna get here by Tennessee. Wouldn't be surprised. You got to sprinkle a little something something for sure. You got a home

dog that's live here. Spreckle me um. But yeah, I could see New England slipping up here. They haven't turned the ball over in two weeks. Two weeks in a row hasn't happened for them in a in a little bit. I think if they you'll get some turnovers here as well. I think it's gonna benefit Tennessee. Give me the titan. That's that in that that revenge from last year. They lost in January to New England fourteen as fourteen point dogs. And what did Tennessee doing that game? They rushed the

ball only sixteen times for sixty five yards. That recipe did not work. So expect a lot of running from them, and I think they'll have some success. Give me Tennessee plus six and a half. But obviously take the set and lay the ten cents extra. Don't be cheap. It's always worth it, I think, um and sprinkle a little bit on the money line. We'll get them back that way. You see, your bar stool guys are now like hashtagging sprinkle mL It's just God, is just ridiculous. Yeah, it's

like we haven't been doing it for eight years. Imitation the sincereous form of flattery. All right, So aces on Tennessee plus the points in that one at home against New England. New England, uh six wins in a row for the Patriots. They were one and two, now they're seven and two and that was just amazing. On Sunday night, it was seventeen seventeen, Green Bay's driving and then Aaron Jones fumbles and you look up and the next thing you know, not only the Patriots win the game, not

only they cover, they win by two touchdowns. And you're like, you thought that was the night where they couldn't overcome even the great Patriots couldn't overcome the loss of Sony Michelle and Rob Gronkowski, and yet they did going away. Obviously different situation at home primetime, but just amazing that franchise so aces on Tennessee, Ken, what are you looking at on Sunday? Yeah, you know, And you had to bring that up because I did have everything tied to that.

Packers plus eleven and a half felt good. Sorry right now, that's all right, rather crushing, but that's what I get for not getting a little bit back as far as the in running. Could have done something when it was tide at seventeen, but didn't like to do so. So sometimes at hindsightes we know, look, I'm gonna do another play inside a division that ordinarily is a very close game. Is a is a game that people look at and say, no, this is gonna be a nip and tuck game. I

don't think so. I think again. We have two teams going in opposite directions talking about the Bears and the Lions, and I like the way the Bears are playing. I like Trubisky. I think Trubisky is a fun quarterback. I think he is dual talented. He's got the dual talent that he takes off and runs. He's much more selective now.

He's almost looking like and I'm not gonna put his passing skills in the category of a young Aaron Rodgers, But Aaron Rodgers back in his hey day always picked the right time to tuck that ball under and take off her fifteen seventeen eighteen yards, get out of bounds, slide, do the right things to protect himself. We're seeing that maturation out of Trubisky this year. And you get Khalil Mac back. Look Detroit second guessing himself last based on

last week. They couldn't, you know, protect Stafford. The Bears have four sacks without Khalil Mac last week. Soldier field that environment. They know. Look, we're sitting five and three. We need to take this team out of the equation. Take Detroit out you play them again in a couple of weeks in Detroit, but take them out here and you go to six and three. They dropped to three

and six. Then you worry about Minnesota and Green Bay, and really the Vikings are the team that they're looking you know that they're tied with right now, so uh that they're looking up with right now. So I really think that the Bears are the are the right side here. Again, I look to to try and beat Devil's advocate and say, Okay, it's too many points inside the division. But like I felt with Billion Dallas, I feel the same way with Chicago.

I just like the way this team is playing, and I think they're sending normally in years past, we look at the Bears and they go into a Buffalo game like they did last week, and and it'd be a tough game. They'd either lose it or they'd win it by a couple of points. Instead, they lay waste of Buffalo right away and they win the game by thirty plus points. So this Bears team, to me, is going

in the right direction. They're well coached, they know what they're doing, and they know they got their main guy back in Khalil Mack, who needed that extra week to really get that ankle ready to go. I think Stafford's gonna be under the rest, He's gonna make mistakes. It's gonna be about thirty four degrees somewhere in that neighborhood. Take the Dome team, put him into Soldier Field in that environment, a couple of sacks here and there, that crowd's gonna pile on, and the Bears are gonna win

this game by double digits. Bears laying seven Ken all over the Bears, and this one against the lines. Matt Stafford first seven games this year was sacked total of thirteen times. Last week against the Vikings ten ten times sacked. And now for his efforts, he gets to face the Chicago Bears right after that with as you point out, Ken Khalil Mack back from two weeks off with the right ankle injury. That was interesting how Mac didn't play

against the Bills last week. The week before that, when he was out, it was like right before the game they said, well he probably could have played, but you know, just precautionary, we'll take him out. So you expected him to play last week, but I guess they made the calculus. They're like, well, it is the Bills. We don't really need him, So take another week. He will be back in the lineup against the Lions. And this one bears a favorite by seven again play on the Bears. There

from Ken Marco. I'm gonna go to an ugly one and we're gonna go with the home dog. And right now, there's one team that after last week, is you know, risen to the top of the charts and is everybody's darling, and that's the Saints. And we talk about, you know, trying to buy low and sell high. Well, right now, the market is not any stronger on the Saints than they are after the Rams game last week, you know, and it final score, it really wasn't even indicative of

how much they dominated that game. They had the seven teen point lead and then uh the Rams come roaring back, tied it and then didn't do anything after that. I'm looking at this one. I'm gonna go against the Saints. I think the lane too many points on the road. This is talk about the Dome team going outside. They're gonna be playing in Cincinnati. Not quite Chica, I go conditions, but still you're playing outdoors. And talk about a sandwich spot.

You're coming off the ramps. That was build as you know, the best game of the year so far, and it was um and you handled what everybody thought was the favorite to win the Super Bowl. And speaking of Super Bowl, who do you have up next? Well, the reigning Super Bowl champs in the Philadelphia Eagles, back at home and you have this game sandwiched on the road on the road. Oh, can I point out that this is their third road game in four weeks, in five and seven weeks. I'm

gonna go with Cincinnati here. I know A J. Green is doubtful. Um, I would have rather had him on the field, give me another weapon. But this is all about a situational spot. And I just can't see the Saints coming with the same intensity that they had last week and what they've got on tap coming up next week at Philadelphia and you look at it, They're coming off of that Minnesota revenge game the week before then the Rams last week. Just can't put the pedal to

the metal every single week. This is a great situational spot for the home dog coming off of bye take the Bengals. A J. Green gonna be out in this one. John Ross back in for the Bengals wide receiving corps. Vant's perfect also though out. It looks like in this one, Marco, you still are about the Bengals here five and a

half point Dogs five and a half or six. Yeah, yeah, it's it's climbing and this is one of those ones you wait till game day because you're gonna get the peak number when all of the uh average players come in and be grabbing the Saints. Okay, A J. Green is out? What I'm seeing guys too, He's he's definitely out for this game. Yeah, he is out. He might be out for a few weeks. Actually, a J. Green but definitely out for this one. John Ross and Vant's perfect,

it appears will be out for this one. So the Bengals banged up and the Saints with Dez Bryant. I know that factored into your handicapping, Marco, and I know you spent at least an hour moving your power ratings on that one. Anyone we'll see a Dez contributes. Dez who couldn't separate from d Backs Dallas when when last we saw him. But the uh, the Saints need some production outside of Michael Thomas in their wide receiving course.

So they picked up Dez. We'll see if he makes any contribution this weekend at Since all right, gentlemen, before we get to the final two questions and thoughts on the Thursday night game, real quick, A reminder. A reminder is always that the show brought to you by the good folks over at Bookmaker dot eu. Support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot E as always an industry

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This is one of these double edged sword things I always talk about with Thursday night games because we complain as a football betting and football fan audience. We complain when the matchups suck on Thursday night. Oh it's Denver, Arizona sucks, and then when we get a good game

like this, we rejoice. Caroline A. Pittsburgh. Now, sometimes the game because it's on the Thursday night, Thursday night games are scorely no matter who plays the the level of play isn't up to what we hoped, and then we lament the fact that it was Carolina Pittsburgh on Thursday, were like, I wish Carolina Pittsburgh had been on Sunday so it would be like legit games. So I don't know how this is gonna go, but it is on paper anyway, a very good matchup between the Panthers and

the Steelers. And this line has gone all the way from five to three. This is three extra juice, three and a half reduced juice somewhere in that pocket right now. But there are threes widespread out there on this game. We'll start with you can any thoughts at all, real

briefly on this game, if you're playing it at all. Yeah, Pittsburgh, I mean even though there are two and five against the number as a favorite at Hinsfield, and Marco knows Pittsburgh better than everybody, so I was hoping maybe you'd go to Marco first. But that's okay. I'm that would leading Steelers here because I look at Carolina and they you know, you look in their their last several games. I mean, they struggle, get the sixty three yard field, go to beat the Giants thirty one, they lose at

the Redskins, they make the miracle comeback at Philly. They did handle Baltimore, and that's the game that kind of has us going like, wow, we maybe Baltimore we thought was better than they are. We see that they're reeling right now. And then they come back with a nice offensive effort against Tampa Bay got the deflective pass up in the air of the McCaffrey caught, So you know, at the end of the day, they're finding ways to win. They have Olson back, so they have some confidence. Cam

is doing the right things right now. But there's something about the Steelers in a game at home short week that you know, the line might be going towards Carolina and they might be the trendy play, but I'm gonna take the Steelers. I'm gonna trust the big Ben is starting to get his act together. He struggled. It hasn't been an epic Big Bend season, you know, consistency wise, and he was the first one that owned the Baltimore Sunday night loss in Pittsburgh. That's why I was on

Pittsburgh last week. I knew you were gonna get Ben's best effort because he knew. He said, hey, it's all on me. I played the worst second half that I played in a long time, so it's on me. And so that's why I looked at Pittsburgh when they went to Baltimore. I'll look at Pittsburgh again on the short week and down to three, I'll lay the juice. I think Pittsburgh wins the game by a touchdown. Yeah, total

right around fifty one in this game right now. Warren Sharp, who was on the show this morning at Visa on a numbers game, passionate dissertation in favor of the over in this game. Carolina and Pittsburgh top five red zone teams, by the way on the season, Pittsburgh number two, Carolina number five. Marco Ken is right, you are the Pittsburgh steel authority. And I promise I won't do this every week when the Steelers come up, but one more time, I just want to say, obviously I'm a Redskin fan,

That's how I grew up, but Pittsburgh. I love the city of Pittsburgh. After what happened, the tragedy at the Tree of Life Synagogue, the outpouring from the Steelers football team, the fact that they showed up at the services, and then the Pittsburgh Gazette headline in Hebrew after the funeral.

I cannot express to you how heartwarming that is for those of us who are members of the tribe who saw that, because I will tell you in l A, New York, Miami, wherever there's the highest populated Jewish um centers in this country, I'm not sure it's even that there. And so that was just amazing. And so just shout out to Pittsburgh. Man. I know it has nothing to do with football, but I was just so impressed with that. Man. Pittsburgh such a melting pot. I mean, really, there's so

many different nationalities in Pittsburgh and they do pull together. Um. As far as Thursday night football goes, guys, normally, when you look at the short week, they generally give you a division game because it's easier to prepare for uh team that you faced twice a year rather than uh, you know, once every four years. Uh. So, with that said, I would agree with the over uh. With the preparation,

you're not gonna have it. I think the offenses will be ahead of the defenses in this game and you'll see scoring. But as far as the game goes itself, normally, this would be an advantage for the home team on the short week of prep, uh, with neither team being familiar with the other. But here's the problem for the Steelers, and there's several in this game. One is they're coming

off their biggest rivalry game of the season. You all, you've heard me talk about it a gazillion times of about the Steelers in Ravens, how hard of hitting those games are. And now you've got to come back on a short week after a hard hitting game that you had circled in red, after you got embarrassed on Sunday night football earlier in the season. So that's a horrible spot just for the bodies of the Steelers to come back. Secondly, and we talk about revenge, did you look at who

the Steelers play next? I know they're a non factor this year, but believe me, the Steelers remember last year because that team took them out of the playoffs and put up forty five points on them in the playoffs. They go to Jacksonville next week, so you've got, you know, sandwich spot. I know it's a Thursday night game, so you're not gonna be flat not indicating that, but it's

just not a good spot. And the final element to it, if you go back and look at the teams that have given the Steelers the biggest fits our teams with mobile quarterbacks, and there's nobody more mobile right now been Cam Newton. They have put the running game back in Cam Newton's arsenal, running the read option. And when he's doing that, they're unstoppable. And you've seen it with their offensive the points that they've been scoring. Uh, they've scored

thirty plus in four of their last six games. And that's gonna be the key to this game. And if you're banged up and you see that big body rolling at you in the open field, you want to really tackle Cam Newton. I hate to do it, but this is a spot for Carolina. I I gotta go with the Panthers. Plus the points. Carolina over teaser for me, stop me when they start losing, you know, I just like for me, I just it's just y'all want to bet a t s. I'm just got my legs kicked

up doing these theaters. Um, you know what's interesting about that that I don't know if interesting is the right word, but Pittsburgh Baltimore last week because we and I'm sure can you do it? On Sports Talk radio I know, I do it on visa all the time. Uh. We like to talk about coaching gaffs and how stupid some of these coaches aren't games Vans Joseph for instance with the Broncos last week A a target that we've come

to more than once. But can I just say, I know we don't like to go after John Horrball that often. But to thirty three left in that game last week, the Ravens are down a touchdown and they have two time outs in their pockets, and Horrorball lets the clock go all the way down to the two minute warning. Waste thirty three seconds of that precious clock. I get it when it's down closer to the two minute warning, but you can't let thirty three seconds go by at

that point. I couldn't believe that was happening. Did you Marco when you were watching that, did you take note of that at all? I absolutely did. In Uh the other note of that game that But that's possibly where you were gonna going because we've ripped Tomlin so much um over the years on some of his being out coached in game. The play of the game in that game is as much as Pittsburgh dominated that game from start to finish, and that was probably the one of

the more dominating seven point finals that you'll see. But Baltimore had a chance to get back in that game when Ben got hurt and had to leave. For play play of the game. Yeah, the next play, Joshua Dobbs from the Shadow, you know, throw him back inside his own ten yard line. Tomlin let him let it rip and through a twenty yard passed a laser get the

first down. That was the play of the game in my opinion, because if they punt there deep in their own territory with all of the momentum that Baltimore had at that point in time, it's a totally different ball game. What was that? Was it a they were at their own five yard line. It was the third quarter? Was at early fourth, I can't remember, but it was bad. It was late. It was late third, early fourth, I don't remember either, but it was it was the point

where the momentum, the momentum it shifted. Baltimore had just score and then you've got Ben, which at the time we thought he was dead on the sideline, the way he was laying I thought his collar bone was broken. I thought he was done for the year. I really did. It was just one of those one of those spots and he let Joshua Dobbs come in cold without even a throw. You know, that's not Tomlin and got to

give him credit. Twenty two yard completion on I think it was a third and twenty was it or something like that, or a third and ten or something. Yeah, I was just amazing play. That was the play of the game for sure. Changed the momentum right back to the Steelers. They hold on for the touchdown win. Ace.

Any thoughts on tonight's game, I gotta lean under. I mean, I know it's a scary thought um going on there only these fine time games, but I do think this total is a little bit too high based on these two teams. I mean, Caroline has done nothing wrong in the last three weeks that I haven't turned the ball over one time. I mean, they've been balanced running the

ball and throwing the football. But I don't think they're gonna have that success running against this Pittsburgh defense that hasn't allowed a hundred yard rusher since September sixte um and for Carolina to have success offensively, they need to be too dimensional. We've seen that when they've gotten shut down on the run like Washington did do them. They lost that game. Um Washington held them in the eighty

one yards only eighteen rushes. So I think if Pittsburgh gives them trouble against the rush, you're not gonna see many points scored from them. And I think Pittsburgh is gonna grind this game out as well. So at fifty one, I think the totals two hind. The line is confusing to me, almost makes me want to Carolina because it makes no sense. But I think the totals where the

value is all right. Final two questions, gentlemen, we close every show with these two questions, the first of which is which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose outright. We've done this show for eight years. I'm not sure we've had this many choices with this many large spreads in one week, so it literally over half the schedule qualifies. Here, guess favorite most likely to

lose out right? New England seven point favorites, maybe six and a half on the road, depending on where you're shopping on the road at Tennessee, Kansas City sixteen and a half. Consensus favorites at home against Arizona the Jets. Let's call it six and a half or seven point favorite seven points reduced used at home right now at home against the Buffalo Bills, Bears seven point favorites at

home against the Lions. It continues. We're not even counting the New Orleans Cincinnati game in this because it doesn't qualify Chargers. Ten point favorites on the road at Oakland, Rams, ten point favorites at home against the Seahawks, Green Bay, ten point favorites at home against Miami, and then Philadelphia the Sunday night game. We already talked about seven point favorites at home against the Cowboys. Man, that's eight different games.

Ken of those big favorites, which in your opinion, would be the most likely to lose out right? I think the Rams could lose again. I know it's crazy. I know a lot of people have them number one in their our rankings are now maybe New Orleans because of that home win. A lot of people have elevated New Orleans up there. And you know, the Ram teams darning dynamite, there's no doubt about it. But I think we concentrate too much on the defensive side of the ball for

the Rams, you know, based on what's on paper. And we know Donald and Sue probably two of the best tackles ever play on one team together, so that's legit. But you know, Peters to Leave, you know what has that done? To Leave has been on the d L for a while. Peters has not done anything compared to what he's done in his career. So I think we, uh, we look at this Rams defense and maybe give them

too much credit. And we watched teams go up and down the field all that on them, and that includes at home on that Thursday night, came off the shore week, we watched the Vikings go up and down the field on the Rams. So I think Seattle based on the way they played the Rams the first game, and let's give McVeigh credit. You know, fourth and one on his own, forty three goes for it, you know, doubt one, and uh,

you know they get the victory. They seal things. Look, it's it's it's a divisional game, and it's it's Seattle, and it's still Russell Wilson, still Pete Carroll, and there's enough there that if they catch the Rams. Thinking, all right, well we got in New Orleans is probably our only lass. If they're not focused for this game, Seattle is good enough at five and four to go in there. Seattle needs the game. The Rams don't need the game. They think they've got it because of the way they played.

But a lot of times when you see streaks get up over the number of eight, I don't care if it's one way or the other. If it's a losing streak or a winning streak and that streak ends, you'll see that same result happen that next game. I think Seattle's got a chance to beat the Rams outright, definitely love them. Plus the ten points. It's going down to nine and a half. A lot of places, but I think Seattle is a great play. Bold choice for that question.

That's one of the three afternoon games. Seattle at the Rams Rams are Kin's choice for that question. Marco, same question. I'm on the Rams as well. The Rams here this is a spot where you look at you look at what they've played this you know, they just come off four road games in five weeks and they've got another, uh big game coming up, and it's you know, it's a technically a home game, but it's a road game.

It's at Mexico and it's against Kansas City. This is a spot Seattle's you know, a conference game, there's you know, you're not supposed to look or a division game. You're not supposed to look past the division opponent. But when you just pay him off. Playing green Bay in New Orleans and you've got Kansas City the a f C darling up next, this is actually the game that you're looking past. Uh In, Seattle has always had a history of playing the rams. You know, these games being tight.

I'm gonna go ahead and uh say that Seattle was live here. They got a shot of pulling it off. I'm a little surprised by that. Is that those answers interesting compelling reasons, though, Ace don't say, Hey, I just want to give the listeners something else. If that's really your game, tell me what authentically is your game? No, I mean it makes sense obviously Seattle was. I don't love anything to be to tell you the truth of

those big double digit ones. I mean, I was looking at Miami against green Bay because green Bay is obviously beatable this year they I mean, but at home a very dominant team and with the Tannehill situation. Just don't have that confidence. But again, I thought they're live. I think Seattle's live um as well, believe it or not. But I don't know about winning the game out right, you know that. But I guess Seattle, um I would be the best spot. I mean, they played them tough,

they know them very well. I would have to look at Seattle as well. I mean, like I said, nothing really jumped out of those big double digit dogs to say this one something. I'm raising the bet the money line on UM, but at least matchup wise, I think Seattle matches up the best. But you sprink a little money line on Tennessee. So wouldn't New England be your choice in that question? That's what's already given. Okay, well that's the answer. I okay, okay, yeah, that's the main one. Yeah,

I'm trying to toss in a little bonus. See that's I knew how your brain worked on that, all right. Before we move on to the final question, then, just one thought Buffalo and the Jets. None of you picked Buffalo in the Jets. None of you picked the Jets there. That line has come down through the seven and Josh mcdown now and Sam Donald. Is that a curious move to any of you besides me? That's very interesting to me because I, for me, Josh McCown, for me, is

a better quarterback than Sam Donald. Anyway, you look at it, Ken, you were saying, yeah it was me. I agreed, Oh you agree? Okay, yeah, go ahead. You know what did just frankly, with the way the Bills are playing. It's I know, they played New England tough, and they dropped the eight back and and rushed three, which was smart going up against Brady and they know that team inside out. But yeah, again it's a divisional game, you know, the

quarterback switch. But McCown's looking to say, hey, you know what, I'm the guy. Know we got the young prodigy and then the kids in here. But let me remind you that I'm a veteran and I'm going to dissect this Bills team. So I could see the Jets taking care of business and McCown having a good game. Yeah me too, Um, but I thought that was you talking. It was it

was actually Marco who jumped in. I apologize there. All right, final question that gentlemen, we live in a bizarro world and you're forced to bet aside on every one of these fourteen games on the NFL slate this week. But you're allowed one past one game where you're like, yeah, I'm not even betting that with my mother's money. Which would that game be? Ken Uh, it's Arizona Kansas City just because the amount of points. I totally respect case

love the way this team plays offensively. Mahomes, the real deal, takes advantage of the rules that the quarterback has been given. I mean he gets outside the tackle box most of the time. And that's what hurts me about the Raiders because car doesn't do it. And when you have a guy that has mobility, I mean, they make it simple. Get outside the tackle box, throw it to the line of scrimmage. You can throw it away, run, you can slide. They can't touch you. So they've made it nice and easy.

Mahomes fits that bill because that's the reckless abandon that he used to play with that Texas Tech. But now rules are in there to protect him from having that reckless abandoned. So he's taken advantage of it. So I like Casey a lot, But when you see sixteen and sixteen and a half, and I know it was his highest seventeen. It just makes you wonder, what about it? Back door cover, what about Casey realizing this is a gimme, let's take it easy a little bit, and you know

that mindset. Marco and and Ace are always on top of that situational stuff in mindset, and that comes into play, and I think it could come into play here. So I totally want to stay away from this game. Arizona case so true about Derek cart so true. Never outside the pocket, it seems like these days anymore. Marco, same question. I'm gonna go to the Miami Green Bay one, and this is a spot where you've got to wonder the

mindset of green Bay. I mean, the natural reaction would be, you know, green Bay returning home, they got a team they can dominate. They you know, dropping way down in class after playing the Rams to the Hill two weeks ago, and then last week go into uh New England, and again we talked about misleading final scores. I mean, that was a game that you watch the entire game and

it's not a two score difference. That was a two play difference, uh In the one big play being the fumble by Green Bay and turns around and makes a seven point game the other direct where green Bay was going in to take the lead, and then of course the gimmick play that's set up the other score with Edelman throwing the past Miami. They could get blown out. If green Bay does come to play, this is a spot where they can get blown out. So do I want to late nine and a half ten points with

green Bay? No? Do I trust Miami and Oswaller with that offense that if Aaron Rodgers is on and this team is totally focused, can he trade points? No? I'll pass. There's better games on a Sunday card. Hey, Gil, real quick. So I just wanted to interject one thing. I have not seen a schedule to where it worked out where you have four road games as difficult as green Bay was at Rams at New England. Now they get Miami, then they're at Seattle Thursday night and at Minnesota. I mean,

that's just brutal. They don't win this game. You could kiss any playoff Holks for green Bay, goodbye, brutal. Seattle has a brutal stretch right now too. Obviously they played green Bay with both teams meet, but yeah, you're right, I mean, this is just horrible. For Green Bay. Uh, and yeah, this is a season killer if they don't win this game. By the way, Ryan Tannehill, Uh, not coming back anytime soon. Not coming back anytime soon for the Dolphins. The leave alone for me, He's got to

be Jacksonville Indianapolis. I mean, Indies looked goodly both coming off of buying these won their last two games. But you know, I was against Buffalo in Oakland and Jacksonville has just been a huge disappointment. Can't believe this team has been favored um so many times this year, you know, and they how many wins do they have? All three wins? This is the game I pass on for sure, side or total, just don't want anything to do with it. Indianapolis fourteen to one. You can get them at to

win the a f C. Seth. I'm just saying, I'm two and a half games back. But if they get a win here, maybe if anybody's you're right, just maybe you never know if Andrew Luck and the Colts can get it together here, obviously gotta get by this game here, key game in the a f C South. Alright, gentlemen, we've done all we can do. Thank you, as always, Ace and Marco, thank you gentlemen for always making the time. Appreciate it. And Ken Thompson Sports X Radio here in Vegas.

Twenty years on sports talk radio, still going strong. Ken, appreciate the time, man, and for stepping in on such short notice. Really, thank you man. I really appreciate you guys. Let me chime in appreciate you guys. Marco A is always a pleasure. Ken Thompson debut here on the on the megapod as always, thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all your bets this weekend of the NFL and in college football,