Beating The Book: 145th Kentucky Derby Preview and Picks

daily racing forum now doing his own podcast. He will be on the show to break down the derby as well. We'll talk a little Kentucky oaks in the process. To also throw in at back end al Bernstein Al Bernstein Hall of Fame boxing announcer to talk about the middleweight unification title about between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs. That's on the show as well. Today. Enjoy horse racing and

boxing parting like it's nineteen eight. On today's Beating the Book podcast, a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. Back on the numbers game here at Alexander. Thanks for tuning in series sex semp Channel two four. By the way, I should mention I'm on the Raptors tonight, I didn't make that clear. I'm on the Veloci Raptors who I mentioned earlier. Uh Veloco raptors indigenous to the t dot

the six up there in Toronto. Clearly now they named it after because the popularity of the movie Jurassic Park at that time. They named their team the Raptors, and now they've got to reconsider that, like more than a

quarter century later, they really do. They are reconsidering it because they're like, you know, and I made the comparisons like it's like if Las Vegas got a team and named their team after a Game of Thrones character, and then like quarter century from now, they're like, what is this? What is this all about? All right, let's talk the one hundred and forty five run for the Roses and ladies and gentlemen. A man who saw the previous one forty four each and every one of them run for

the Roses live and in person. It's Marco to Angelo, Good morning, Marco. That joke never gets doesn't never, never, not funny for those who have listened to the podcast for many years. Thanks for being here, man, No problems like Christmas for me. Kentucky Derby Week. How many of these do you do today? I am NonStop until six o'clock today. I got something going. Yeah. Well, um, we're happy to have you here. Thanks for joining in and of course from Louisville straight live. I believe we have

them on them on the phone or on Skype? What do we got him on here? Audio? Okay? Either way on audio, it's our friend Ron Flatter. Good morning, Ron. Yeah. I didn't want to scare you by having to see me this morning, because you know, I just I am not looking becoming of a video stream the quality of yours skill. Thank you. I appreciate that, all right. So let me just start here because it's the obvious place

to start, obviously. The morning line favorite was Omaha Beach four to one yesterday in I mean and listening horse racing context. Stunning news scratched when Trent Richard Mandela confirmed to Churchill Downs that Omaha Beach had an entrapped epic glottis. Now, let's not get into the details of that other than it's a it's a breathing issue and the horse will be fine. It's just that the horse is gonna be out for two or three weeks. So the whole Triple

crownd thing is done for Omaha Beach. But this, obviously, Marco, sends things into a completely different spiral than we thought. We were completely an animal than we thought we were getting yesterday. Uh, the first question I usually asked on it. Well, first of all, before I get to that, I was thinking, this sounds I remember something like this happening, and I remember I'll have another in twelve before the Belmont Stakes. I'll have another. Had a shout at the Triple Crown.

It was the day before that, I'll have another. Head tendon nies couldn't go. They took him out, and then you know it's that one was a more serious injury. We're here, like you said, this is going to be just a two to three week procedure. Um, it's a si surgery for him. I've had it done to my horses. They come back generally good, as you know, the same as they were. Yeah. Um, sadly on the timing, though not for for the owner who obviously and that team

of Omaha Beach. Um Ron was there a derby where this happened before two were a morning line favorite had to get scratched at the last minute, so to speak, Yeah, I want revenge. Was a few years ago, was scratched the morning of the race, and so that was a prominent one. Jeff Mullens trained that horse. This has happened

three times now to Mike Smith. It happened five years ago with a horse, and then another time back I think it was two thousand or two thousand one, he had a horse coming off the training track and uh, he got kicked by the stable pony and knocked him out of the race. So this is the third time it's happened to Mike Smith. And remember Mike made the decision to take his talents to Omaha Beach, so you know he did without a ride. And it's I did ask.

In fact, Bob Bafford walked by here just minutes ago before we came on. I did ask Bob yesterday if he considered taking Mike back onto Roadster, because that was Mike's plan b or his alternative when he chose Omaha Beach, and Bob said no, He's sticking with Florence shru. I did ask Mike by Jexton. We were going back and forth and even at a phone conversation last night. Uh, if you know, as they say, as an afterthought, I asked him, does anybody going after you maybe to be

a substitute writer? And I never heard back from him, So read into that what you will. You know, he might have had dinner plans too, So that being the case. Uh, Mike Smith being without a ride is certainly significant, and so there's that to consider. Although I will remind you Mike has only two for twenty four in Kentucky Derby's. But was the board justified last year? Correct? Yeah, sometimes

the horse matters. Sometimes the horse matters, that's right. Uh So Mike Smith without amount, what a turn of events there. So the question, guys that I asked to start every one of these in Marco. You'll remember these from previous uh shows on the podcast in here at a numbers game, at Visa and live as always if I came to you from the future, let's start beyond the derby. First, I came to you from the future and I said, hey, guys, there was a triple crown winner this year. Who was

that horse? And I'm guessing the answer would have been Omaha Beach if if you had to answer it, if I had to answer it, yes, I would have said Omahawk Beach. But I was doing a podcast yesterday actually as the news was breaking, and we were actually talking about the Triple Crown, and I was saying, there's not gonna be a Triple Crown winner this year, even even with Omaha Beach, and I thought there was actually value

yesterday was around town minus five fifty. You could get it on the no. And the reason for that, gil is there's not a superstar in this crop. Very competitive, but more importantly moving forward to the Preakness this year, more than any other year, there's gonna be some really good horses waiting in the second and third leg because a horse like Bourbon War is a very good horse that I feel was better than some of the horses that are in the Derby but just missed out on

the points. Instagram didn't get in. So you have that element that's gonna help I think still one of the two legs I see and so there and there is no justified in this fielder maybe even better stated, there is no American Pharaoh in this field that is that dominant. But if I but if I'm holding you to it, and I said, listen, there was a triple crown winner, which of these horses had the best shot? Um, you don't even want to answer it. I would go with Roadster.

Uh wow, this is a horse that you know is lightly raced, only has two starts this year. And if you notice Bafford has three horses this year, and you remember going into last year's Derby, all of the talk, the question on Justify was does he have enough of a foundation? And you know he didn't race it too, and we know that no horse had done that since way back when Apollo did it. You know, it seemed like yesterday for me. Everyone loves the Apollo stat and

but he he broke that myth last year. Well, look at his three entries this year. They all have two starts, where you know, generally a lot of trainers like to have the three going into the Derby. All of his only have two starts this season. Talking about him probable Roadster and game winner. On the same question for you, just sort of a hypothetical, if if I came to you from the future and there is a triple crown Winner,

what horse would that be? Well, I am going to agree that Roadster is my pick for the Kentucky Derby, so therefore he would be my pick for a triple crown. But I actually think Game Winner might be better suited in that regard. The only question I have with game Winner is whether he has piqued whether his precocity at age two has been caught up with by the ever growing three year olds that are in the rest of the field. But Roadster, his only real loss was last

year in the del Mar Futurity. He finished third and it was discovered he had a throat issue. So while we're talking throat issues, uh year, here was one with Roadster. He had a successful operation on it and has won his two races since, both with Mike Smith. And now you have Florence shru a board. By the way, I'm not sure. I don't want to bury a sub lead that's been going on here. But there's another horse that may have to scratch out of the race, and that

is the closer high Call. The number eleven horse trained by Kiera McLaughlin developed a foot abscess and that abcess does not clear up in the next twenty four hours. He will be scratched from the race at nine o'clock Eastern time tomorrow morning, So you could have a field of nineteen and where that is significant for the horses that we've just mentioned. If High Call is out the number eleven horse and Omaha Beach already out, the horse that will move in and get stuck in the fourteen

hole that spot that is a bottleneck. That's just inviting the fifteen and the sixteen to come over and slam into him. Game winner. The horse that would come out of the fifteen hole his stablemate Roadster. So you think that's gonna throw a little intrigue into the race of

High Call scratches out? That interesting? Uh So that makes sense because I was, you know, the thing I was saying yesterday was I was when Omaha Beach got scratched that moved Roadster from from the seventeen everybody saying, oh, no, one's everyone from seventeen to six, and I'm like, oh, now, all of a sudden, Roadster can win it. Because I found that to be a little bit of a fake out on that stat Some stats not as meaningful as others,

but I like your angle on that run. So yeah, and by the way American Pharaoh drew in I think they're only eighteen in the race when he won in fifteen, he got scratched inward and I think he came out of me. He may have been in the seventeen, but he drew inward as a result. So yeah, I think I think that's a bogus stab because let's remember go back in time in the Kentucky Derby, there weren't always seventeen horses in the race. That's just a recent that's

a recent trend. Absolutely so with Omaha Beach out of the running, so Churchill Down's oddsmaker Mike Metalia revised the morning line. Game Winner now the nine to two favorite for the mile and a quarter race on Saturday and probable and Roadster installed as the co second choices at five to one. So Bafford, Bob Bafford's got the top three choices in what could be a twenty horse field.

We will see how it shakes out, uh as we just talked about, and at the Westgate game winner is four to one, Roadster nine to two, and probably five to one. Then you have maximum security six to one. Tested his eight to one Coat of Honor at ten to one round and got the top six betting choices at Westgate before the last thing about Omaha Beach Marco. For folks who had bets on oh Mahaw Beach, how does this now shake out for them? Well, it depends

if it was a pair of mutual bet early. Uh. They start taking bets early at the derby and stuff. You'll get those tickets back. But if you bet anything in the future books around town where you had your betting, they start these as a two year old, you know, late in the two year old season, they bring out the future book, the first one, and they keep updating it from the prep races. You're screwed horse didn't make it,

because that's what you're doing with a future book. You're getting a bigger number two bet the future hoping that you know, they start maybe with a hundred horses, you know, and they keep whoodle in the field down a little bit. You're just it's a bad break. So I I love

I lose my Omaha Future Omaha Beach futures play. I did get refunded on a specific Omaha Beach to win the Triple Crown prop because you know, I bet that every year my old crusade about triple crowns um and then I will tell you this, some some books and offer in far away places very slow to adjust on the news yet yesterday, so you there was a there was a good five to ten minute period which is an eternity where you could still make bets on the

improbables and the game winners of the world at favorable odds. Yeah, and it just shows that, you know, somebody stows their toe in an NBA game and we know it immediately, but in the book's react but horse racing not the same run? How did how did that news come to you yesterday? Because I did a whole show I was talking about my show that I knew with j Rick. We did a whole Derby show and I'm omaha, beaching way through the show, and then eight minutes later that

whole show was rendered. Mood at that point, yeah, you know something, same thing, And I was thinking about that very thing. I was on another I was on a friend's podcast, and all of a sudden they got done and I saw Tim Laydon from Sports Illustrated had broken the story, put the news up on Twitter. I immediately I was sending texts and calls out to Mike Smith and to Richard Mandela and to Bob Bafford and was talking to them or at least texting with them. And

that was all in about a ten minute period. Uh So that was at around I guess I'm trying to do the math in my head. You're six o'clock last night our time. Uh So that was That's how it came down here fashioned way, by Twitter, the old fashioned way. All right, let's take a break. We're coming back. We're gonna bringing Peter fourn Is out for the Daily Racing Form. We will get all of your picks. How you're who's who's gonna win this according to you? We were got

Ron's picked their moments ago. We'll talk about that more importantly. How you're gonna bet this entirely because I know the creativity, Marco that you show every year, and uh and Ron you as well. Always fascinating the Derby run for the Roses. The most exciting two minutes in sports right here on the Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers Game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our

visa in studios in Laws, Vegas. It is the Numbers Game right here at Vison VAS that's an information network, serious X and Channel two oh four. It's Gill Alexander, It's Marco D'Angelo. Excuse me, it's Ron Flatter. Everybody, and ladies and gentlemen on the phone from the Daily Racing Form is their old buddy Peter Forn Hello Peter, Hello Gil. But I didn't brief you know. Those those letters are no longer associated with me. I'm of the In the

Money Players podcast these days. Like I said, of the In the Money Players Podcast these days at looms boldly one of the great horse racing calls of all time on Twitter, one of the great Twitter handles ever. Peter, what the same of the podcast? One more time? In the Money podcast. You can find the shows wherever you get your shows. iTunes are over at in the Money podcast dot Com. Lots of great Derby content over there.

All right, uh so, Peter, we we were just doing some preliminary stuff obviously at Omaha Beaches being scratched yesterday, the news coming down and just sort of changing all of this. Uh and we're at the point where we have you in We're just gonna go on a round table here and give picks let us start with you, how are you betting Kentucky Derby. Well, the Omaha Beach scratch definitely threw me for a tizzy. We had to

do a whole emergency podcast about it last night. He was definitely going to be thickly in my plans, but he was not my top pick. So I'm just gonna basically give you what I was gonna say when Omaha Beach was in the race, but just without his name mentioned, and basically now, for me, Tacitus is the horse that I want the most. One of my friends and other frequent guests on the show, who makes his own figures, had that would memorial faster than a lot of other

figure makers. But it was also the way that the figures were earned. He really showed a lot of toughness, getting knocked all about having two major spots of trouble, ended up on his talent getting in a really good spot, and ended up on his class winning pretty well in the hands of a patient trainer and Bill Mont. I expect him to continue to come on and be spot on for this test. We've said it for years on

the show. Nobody better than Bill Mott at having a horse with a target and getting them to that target in top form, tacit is for me, offers a lot of value. I imagine a little bit later we'll talk about some betting strategy, but for me, in terms of top pick, it's as simple as Tacitus. Alright, So Tacitus to win, Tacitus in the eight whole tend to one on the morning line, Ron, you're pick to win. I

think you already tipped us off. Yeah, roadsters might pick to win, but that doesn't mean he's the only horse I'm going to include on top in my tickets. I'm going to leave game winner in, but I'm not gonna go crazy on that maximum security. I think he's a real value possibility at ten to one. He fits the pace scenario where he chase the pace, although there may not be a pace to chase in this race, but I like him out their code of honor. I think

the slow pace of the Florida Derby compromised him. If it's an honest pace in this race, I think he could surprise a little bit. And Spinoff is a horse that also fills the bill, not only in the care and speed points, but also the final fractions. Theory we've mentioned this before. Horses that finished their final prep in either thirteen seconds or less for the final for Long or thirty eight seconds or less for the final three forlong.

They've won all but two of the last twenty nine Kentucky Derby all but three, i should say, twenty six of twenty nine. And so that's a big dynamic for me. And spinoff is a long shot that fills that bill and then I'm gonna throw in just to hit the board. By my standards, there's been a big buzz horse around here. I think there might be something to that. Master Fencer is the one that's gonna be like, what in the world is he talking about. The horse comes in from Japan,

a terrific closer. I think he gets better with distance. Don't think he'll win the race, but if he hits the board, there'll be a huge price on him. Give the final fractions theory once again, Ron, If you could and then all the horses that qualify this year, there's it's easier to list the ones that don't. And that's one of the problems with the final fractions theory this year.

Part of it is the Florida Derby was so slow that almost every horse in that race closed strong, but the final fractions theory is the last twenty nine Kentucky Derby winners did so by either in their last prep finishing the last furlow in thirteen seconds or less for the last three for a long since thirty eight or less. What that does is tell you that they've got energy and speed left at the end of the race. As the races get longer and the Kentucky Derby is longer

than they have ever run before. Marco, what you got? What are you doing? Well? I agree with the stuff everybody said. The one problem I have with maximum security. He's undefeated and we've this is the first time we've had a horse going into the Derby undefeated that nobody's really you know, has any hoopla around the horse. And it's because his first start. You could have bought them in a sixteen thousand dollar claimer geez okay, So they

didn't realize what they were sitting on any race. His first three wins were very easy wins against much less competition. In the Florida Derby, which was his first test, and he went easy. I was actually at the Florida Derby, uh in person. We were sitting at a big table at the half pole. When they put up the forty eight and four, I said, if you have a closer rip your ticket up now. Is this guy just stole the race? And that's what they did with the slow fractions.

He's not going to get that here. There's gonna be more speed. Plus there's gonna be more horses coming at him early. One of the horses that did come at him finished third in the Florida Derby, and Ron mentioned him, and I do like that horse. To hit the ticket is a price's code of honor to make up ground in the Florida Derby with the fractions they had, he ran a big race and I look for the tables to turn. But the horse I'm gonna go to to win the race, I think he's gonna get the best

trip of all of the horses. Where he's sitting at is number five improbable. And the fact that they went from Van Dyke last start, they moved off of him and went to Ortiz. Van Dyke is a good up and coming jockey, had his best year ever last year, but he's not ready for this stage. This is a huge jockey move. I like it. This is the horse to win, and I got my looking at Lee horse for you if you remember from a couple. Yeah, and that's what made made our ticket with the big long

shot your homework assignment. Go back and rewatch the bluegrass and only focus in on number eight. Win win win. Watch the trip that he got got bumped at the start, but more importantly, when he was making his big move, and that's the problem with closers. You run into traffic.

He ran up on a wall of horses, and he ran up on him hard, so hard that the jockey literally jerked the horse's head up in the air when he grabbed the reins to slam the brakes got him restarted after losing all momentum and still come on to be second. So I think if he get an honest pace, look for win win win on your ticket to help light up the towboard. So so but you you think it probably wins, but win win win gets in there, I I will have him in here. That's my long shade.

Or I always bet two horses in the derby because it's such a an inflated uh pool. Uh Im probably will be my horse across the board and the long shot will be win win win, win win win now in their hole with the Elmaha beach scratch them mentella board. So you and now listen, I've first of all you mat and something there that should be noted, which is we live in an era now where you can actually go to YouTube and watch previous races like imagine this

years ago. The racing form is still the Bible, but the racing form doesn't show you or tell you everything. And I tell people all the time it's human nature. When you watch your horse race live, all you're looking at when you're watching that race is the horse you bet your horses ride, you know, rose colored glasses on. Go back and watch the race after with an open eye and watch all of the other horses and see the horses that had troubled trips. That's how you get

horses at prices. Uh, everybody can read the form and see a horse that's one four in a row. It's finding those horses that are improving but had problems and had a good excuse of why. Okay, so let's get into them specifically. I don't maybe don't want to give an entire specifics, but your general strategy, because all right, we know who who who you got winning. We know who you got in there, but are you are you exacting? Are you wheeling? What are you doing here? I'm playing

exact as and tr effectors. And what I like to do the tr effecta is I do what is called a pyramid. I'll put four horses on top in the first slot, so any one of those four can win. I'll put five in the second slot, which would be the same four, and then one new horse, and then I'll put six or seven underneath. Now in the Derby, I might put a couple of extra horses on the bottom end of that. Because we know that something can

run third and run a big price. You can invest more money in the Derby because you're gonna get a bigger return just because of the inflated prize pool. The purse of all of the as we like to refer to sit there. It's an official Derby show with the dead money. All right, Peter, save question for you, then, how are you betting this? I'm really interested in the Oaks Derby double this year. Other years we've talked about the double going from the turf race into the Derby.

This year I like the Oaks Derby Double because I'm going to take a stand against the big favorite, Bella Fina in the Kentucky Oaks. She may prove me wrong, but I haven't loved the recent track work, and she did have her loan sort of poor start of her career over the Churchill stripped. And there's a couple in there that I like to try to get live to Tacitus and maybe a couple of long shots in the Derby. So the two for me and the Yoaks are Floora

de Lamar, Bob Baffert, the Dolphin trainee. I don't believe we're going to get the giant price that's listed in the USA Morning Line, but this is one who's always meant to have talent, has this test written sort of all over her in terms of her pedigree and everything that was said about her before she even stepped on the race course in the afternoon. The other one I

like is Champagne Anyone for Ian Wilkes. Wilkes is known for bringing his horses along slowly, and I think this one just looks to have a really nice set up. I think the pace will be fast. I think Champagne Anyone has a chance to get the money in the yolks. So hopefully one of those two will win and set me up for a really nice ticket to Tacitus. But in a bet like this, if I'm taking on an odds on favorite, I have the opportunity to maybe mix

in a few more. And I like a lot of the long shots that were mentioned by the guys, specifically that point about Code of Honor. He has just really had not a whole lot go right this year, especially not go right in terms of him to produce a really fast final time. I think he might get okay conditions to really show up with a big effort in the Kentucky Derby. I would want to have some of those doubles to him. I think Spinoff is another one

who's a very interesting long shot. Of the bafforts, I mean, they all make sense. I don't want to bet them all. I might bet a little to game Winner, just because I think he's suited for the mile and a quarter. But the main play for me is going to be Oaks Derby doubles, Lord ne Lamar and Champagne, anyone to Tacitus. And then I'll mix in a little bit of Spinoff and Code of Honor and maybe a little game winner in those. But I think that's the pool for me

this year. I like it. You have Oaks Thoughts Marco at all. I haven't broke down my final thought there on the Oaks, Okay, Ron, I may have. I may have buried the headline here, Ron, because you're there at Louisville. There's obviously in clement weather expected. At one point I heard it was nine chance of precipit station and the thought was that if Omaha Beach was in this, that that would help that horse more than any other. Is there a horse now that gets help? And first of all,

what is the forecast? Let's start there. And if it is bad, who does this help? I feel like you should ask Peter, because he took the exact horses I was gonna name in the Oaks. I was saying, God, I swear it was like it was I we don't think I like on the Derby, but we do on the Oaks absolutely. And Bafford was touting Florida Lamar to be back in December, so we'll we'll go from there.

The weather forecast for tomorrow if you read the National Weather Service, or I should say Saturday chance of rain if you read the weather channel chance of rain. The question is how much rain, and that's gonna be the big if they couldn't even get that right last year on race day, the weather forecasters. So if it's if it's the steady shower that they're telling us will happen,

then the track will be muddy to sloppy. Uh. Here's the thing, Gil and presuming high cost stays in the race, Fifteen of the any horses in the Derby field this year have experience on wet tracks on off tracks, So it's it's not like you can really narrow it down. I think it goes back to either you stay with your best, may the best horse win, or maybe you lean more toward front runners uh and pace chasers. But then again, that's kind of what the Derby has become.

I don't know that you handicapped a lot differently. If Omaha Beach were in there, absolutely he'd have been pounded as the favorite, But now he's not, and we go forward with a lot of horses that have been on wet tracks. You agree with that. I agree that as far as the closers go, if it is a really muddy, sloppy and you know, the MUD's getting thrown up. Generally, that doesn't favor the closers because they don't like to see that, you know, the mud thrown interfaces horses on

the front end. If it's a hard rein and they're able, you know, to scrape the tracks some and you're not getting all of that throwing up, then you know, really it doesn't change my handicapping. But you're gonna have to watch that and see how it is where you watching. By the way, you're at the south point again as we always are. Yes, I will be the biggest, biggest derby party in town. I'm I'm hitching onto your wagon and you're gonna tell me how about this? That's right?

And won't go rogue on this time? Do you hear that? Run? Listen to all right? The last thing and we'll get you guys back together. Before the Belmont is particularly if there's a triple crown that's uh still at stake and and it sounds like there might not be based on everything I'm hearing, but I usually asked Felika nailed this a couple of years ago with Tappert. I asked, before the derby, Uh, the Belmont, which is the longest of

the three Triple Crown races. If you're looking at this field, if you're thinking about the horses that might jump in at some point, Um, is there a horse that you're thinking about already about for the Belmont come June. Well, people's first thought always is when it's a bigger race, longer distance, that they're going to look for the stone

Cold closer. And that's not the case all the time, because usually you get a slower pace in the race because nobody wants to be that first horse that comes up. But if it is a fast pace and if he doesn't scratch here and everything's okay, Hiko is probably one of the best Stone Cold closers that we have. Um Country House is a good closer as well. And of course my horse I gave you as a long shot, win, win,

win is a horse that likes to close. Okay, So you've got it improbable, you got win win, win, and all your bets. That's that's the headline. I'm gonna have all three of Bafford's horses in my combinations, but for price horses, I will have tasket this, and I will have code of Honor included in that that top you know, five horses that I'm king in exact as and dries. Okay, and Peter, you are, you're daily doubling with the oaks. You've stolen flatters horses, You've bitten everything he likes. But

you're you listen to a show. I could be self consciously plagiarizing and this could be a George Harrison situation here all throwing an old rock and roll reference for wrong. That's okay, that's our demo today. It's horse racing and boxing today, for God's sakes. But you're you're fixed. You're fixated on Tacitus as well. That that's the headline for you. Acidus is he's my number one pick with a bullet.

You guys talked about derby parties. I won't be able to check out any of the Vegas derby parties this year, but I am throwing one in Manhattan. I know visa as a lot of listeners in the New York areas, if people talk about it all the time, and for those who are listening who are gonna be in the area, I'm hosting a derby party, no cover, no minimum, at

Treadwell Park, west On Street. Come in. Always love to hear from people who hear me from my shows or when I've been fortunate enough to be on with Ron or on with you Gil. Be great to meet some listeners in person on Derby Day as well, and the Numbers game broadcast on Game Plus there in the New

York City, New Jersey area as well. Bleeding over from Ontario. Uh, and Peter in the name of the podcast what Ward Time, I'm the in the Money Players podcast, Okay, and we'll put this in podcast for him on beating the book as well. Ron, you you got roadster, but your other headline on this is what I would say as far as the Belmont is concerned, don't ignore cutting humor depending

on what he does here in the Derby. Won the Sunland Derby and is a long shot here but trained by Todd Fletcher, who has been known to use the Derby as a bella prep for the Belmont. And I agree when win win doesn't have to be far back. You can't be far back in the Belmont because even though it's the biggest track, it's the shortest home stretch.

So uh, those are just the two names I'll throw out there, and uh, you know, we'll see who else might come into the race that we don't know that's going to come in the next five weeks and change. And as far as podcast is concerned, Uh, the buzz horse around here, the smart money horse be by my standards. His trainer Brett Calhoun will be on the podcast tomorrow. Zoe Cadman will help us preview it. We had to kind of go from scratch with the Omaha Beach situation,

and so that's our guest list for tomorrow. And of course we have the Handicappers podcast up already with Vinnie Malulo, Patrick McGuigan, Dave Tooley and Annie a Vello and all that at VCN dot com, slash podcast or Apple, Google Stitcher or Gills Toaster. It's called the Ron Flatter. By the way, it's called the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Ron. You've probably start with that the title of the podcast itself. Um, it's creative, should be always dynamic, alright. Last thing then, guys,

real quick, as we gotta run. Uh, if there's a horse in the derby that you didn't mention at all, that is the most likely to torpedo everything you just said, What is that horse? What's the horse? You fear? Maximum security ends up being a real horse. That's the horse that will hurt me. So that that's the horse you could be cursing. Come Come six fifty East or three fifty pm Pacific on Saturday. Same question, Peter, what's the

horse that that could just ruin all your hopes? Well, I fear improbable, but I could probably spend very little money to just cover maybe an exacta or something improbable over Tacitus to try to save the bacon a little bit. But that's one that I'm mildly against, who I could easily see turning my day a little salur. All right, Ron, same question the bluegrass winner of a coma. I didn't respect the race, but I could respect the horse if he blows up my ticket. All right, Ron Flatter from

Visa and Peter for Natal and Marco D'Angel. Marco, thank you for being in man. I appreciate that problem. Thank you all very much. Kentucky Derby round Table. We'll talk Derby with Felika Chris Felika from The Bear or from the I should say Stanford Stephen The Bear podcast from ESPN dot com tomorrow about rather run for the raises. Support for today's podcast, as always, comes from Bookmaker dot eu a key cog, the keyest of cogs. There's such

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you you will have no regrets. Down back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our vis In studios in Laws, Vegas, the numbers Game right here at Basa the Vegas Stats of Information Networks Serious x up Channel twoh for. I'm hard pressed to name anyone more associated with a sport than this gentleman

right here. He is a Hall of fame boxing analyst for showtime television, as well as an author or stage performer, recording artist, speaker, renaissance man, and one of the original hosts here at Visa. Let us not forget that, ladies and gentlemen, it's a true gentleman. Al Bernstein on the show this morning. Good morning to you. Al's all nice to see you. Nice to talk to you. I mean nice to talk to you. Nice to see you. I hope to see you soon. Al, What are you keeping

your days occupied with these days? Beyond boxing? I know you're you're always into something. Well, you know obviously I'm all the showtime fights. Uh, and I'm gonna do fight series. I'm starting up as well. That I'm announcing, but I'm also doing You mentioned the music I'm gonna be. Uh. I'm still doing a lot of music performing and I'm performing on MA at the Tuscany Hotel and Casino. Um uh, doing my music shows. So do that. It keeps me

off the streets, you know, keeps you off the streets. Aw, that's all. That's all we're concerned about. Like we can only keep Bernstein off the streets. This world would be Do not want me out there? You do not want to be out there causing Bayham or anything like that. Terrible, That's right. We'll glad you mentioned the thing because most people don't know that you that you do sing and so because you never mentioned that on the boxing telecasts

obviously not to my knowledge. You don't anyway, but yeah, I do. You know, I've been doing it since early eighties when I started doing it at the Caesar's Palace, before the Haggler Hearns fight and before for Handling Leonard, those kind of fights. Um, I would do engagements at the Sizar's Palace all the time, and then um, you know, it was fun ante morph into a different show and then that was like more of a boxing party thing where it showed clips and everything and I'm back to

the music. So it's fun and uh, I ain't doing well. You can follow Al by the way on Twitter at al Bernstein. Um, you mentioned Haggler Leonard, a famous middleweight fight of of years gone by. His anniversary just passed a couple of weeks back. Um, so this weekend you got yourself a unification middleweight title. Canelo Alvarez fifty one

one and two with thirty five knockouts. Obviously, people most famously remember the draw, controversial draw against Triple G and the controversial win against Triple G against Daniel Jacobs, who fought Triple G very well a couple of years ago himself. Uh, he is thirty four two and oh twenty nine knockouts, has a bit of a height advantage, has a bit of a reach advantage. I guess I want to start with the judges out, which is sad that I want to start there, but I guess I do. If I'm

not mistaken. These are the same three judges as for as were the case in the last Triple G Cannello fight. Is that right? Uh, they're experienced spots, their experience judges and Uh. One hopes that they will do a good job with this. Um. You know, these fights are UM, this is gonna be a fight like fifth Excuse, like the like the Triple G site that I think we're bound. They have a lot of close rounds in this site and I'm bound to have uh if it goes to distance,

which many people think it will. UM, I think could could play a role. And you know, there's a perception that Canello al has gotten, has done, has gotten a couple of decisions that maybe he couldn't shouldn't have gotten, um and so and and there's a perception that he is the golden boy. Uh, he's promoted by the Golden Boy. But but but you know, well that's what you know. I hate to start there, but that's what work. If

I any inclination, I have to bet on Jacobs. And first of all, I think my strategy is I'm just gonna wait. Because the public loves betting underdogs. I'm just gonna wait for them to bet it and wait for Canelo's price to get muted. And then I think I'm gonna bet Canelo at a muted price. That's the strategy anyway for me, but any nation I have to bet Jacobs.

I always think about those judges, and I do buy into the fact that to beat Canelo here in Las Vegas, and I don't want to say you gotta knock him out, but you really gotta out point him. And that's my trouble here thinking about any kind of bet on Jacobs. Yeah, that's the perception, and and there's some there's some you know, and and some of the things that have happened in

life back that up. Uh And so the idea, UH that you could win a decision of betting on Danny Jacobs does kind of way in your mind if you're um, I do think that Danny Jacobs has the chance in this fight to uh to to if he if he uses his height and his reach advantage as well as he can and UH is able to keep Cannella at bay, there's a chance he could box well enough to to win those rounds convincingly enough to get the judges. There's

a chance that that could happen. But again, you know, it might not be something you want to you want to wager your money on. How do you think it plays out? Though? If you if you could picture the script of this fight, what do you what do you believe will happen here? I think I think it is Daniel Jacobs wants to use the site and reach UM and box effectively but land power punches. UM. He still wants to land with some uh, with some power and he is a good puncher. He's not a UH, He's

not just a boxer. UM. And for Canello, the question is going to be when he fought Arisondi Lara, who is the ultimate boxer UM, some years ago, he had boxers give him some issues. UM. He doesn't always have the greatest footwork. Isn't always you know, he's not that quick on his feet and so sometimes boors give him trouble. The problem is that I resigned to Laura box him, but didn't again, didn't get the decision, and part of

it was Laura's fault because he wasn't aggressive enough. But that's where Daniel Jacobs has quite a conundrum because Canello will be coming forward this site and can he box effectively enough and still give the impression that he's done enough offensively? UM, I don't. The interesting thing about the site and the big question is whether either man has his ability to hurt the other man Cannello has shown

an amazing chin. Um. We now realize that based on the goof can fights and other fights that that he's had, that that you know, Canelo Alvas can take a punch. Um. So I don't know if the question of whether Jacobson and her name is is is in the air. Uh. And I don't know if can will not knock out Jacobs.

So I expect this to go to this since and I expected to be a close fight talking to Al Bernstein Boxing broadcast legend again, no one more associated with his sport uh than Al is in the sport of boxing. You know, I look at this, there's a clause here, Alan, and you tell me how I mean, I guess these clauses exist, But you tell me how regular these are?

Where they're gonna weigh again the morning of the fight at eight am, and for every pound that Jacobs exceeds one hundred and seventy he will be fined five hundred thousand dollars a pound. How How regular is that? How typical is that? Well? Every once in a while those

kind of clauses are put into uh to fight. Um just wants out to me because Uh, it's not that Dannis Jacobs, he doesn't have a big history of of of coming in overweight to begin with, Um, it is almost you know, he's more of the natural middleweight than Canella. But since its fights you fought at middleweight that you know that clauses to me is an odd one. Um. But Jacobs doesn't blow up too much in fights, but that but I think that is really not They often

have clauses like that. In this case, that seems odd to me. And it's a further indication that, um, with the promotion and the the zone, the broadcasters and with everything, um, you know, I think the Canello, um, the playing field is tilted a little bit, just a little bit. Yeah, Um, And I guess the question is, and I there's nobody who loves boxing history more than I do. And I

know obviously you're the same way. But let's let's try to put this in historical perspective, like if I'm talking to a generation of folks who grew up on some of the fights you mentioned, the Haggler Hagler hurt excuse me, Leonard Hern's one, which still remains my favorite fight of all time. Obviously, Yeah, the brutality of of Haggler, Hearns,

and then there was Leonard Haggler some years later. But if we think about all of those fights, and I know the later one was middleweight, but the others were welter. We throw Duran in there. That group of fighters versus a fight that we're going to see like this on Saturday. Is this amateur hour compared to those guys? In your opinion? Is this comparable? What is this? No, it's that was an era. The nineteen eighties was was the most special

ear boxing it's had maybe in its whole history. When I was and I was a young man in my thirties, when I was fortunate enough to be able to announce many of those fights, you know, tremendous break from me because I started in broadcast age thirty and here it was, you know, four or five, three or four years later, I'm announced some of those kind of fights of staging.

But um that and I asked people like your Clancy and other people that new eras before me, you know, I said, is this as good as as it seems to me? And they said absolutely. It's one of the best decades ever. So um, that decade stands on its own for that eight for that weight group and everybody what this is. So it's very hard for any fights to to match up to those, but this, this is we have. The Glafkan Canelo fights were exceptionally well thought. It was very very good. Uh, and this will be

a very good fight. Um. You know, Uh, it's stuff to compare it to the eighties because that was you know, on a level all of its own. But this is this should be a very good fight. These are very good fighters. And uh and and and you know I talked about Jackson to box and it almost gives the impression what's the dead in the fight. But I don't know that, you know, I think we're likely to see a lot of actions, just like we did in the

Glafkan Canova fights. Uh. And if I if we look beyond this fight into the boxing landscape, and you're opinion, who is who is the most exciting boxing boxer out there? Is that Errol Spence Jr. Is that the name that leaves to mind for you? Yeah, Erroll Spences is a very exciting fighter because he's he's you know, we'd see he just beat Mikey Garcio. He came up and wait to fight him and One of the things about that

fight that was surprising was Mike Garcie is a brilland fighter. Um, But people thought Errol Spence would win primarily because there's his strength and his size against six fighters coming up. And wait, he actually showed astonishing um boxing technique and we knew he had it, but he hadn't. But he's the kind of fighter that wants to go in and you know, he's looking for knockouts. UM. So he's he's the full package. And and I was slow to come

around to Erroll Spence. You know, I thought always good, you know, but I wasn't labeling him, you know, a superstar. He is, he is going to be that, and and we're hoping it he can now get a series of good fights culminating with the fight with Terence Crawford. Um, that would you know would excite the fans. It's sure would, all right, So al I appreciate it. Listen. So, so do you like my betting strategy here? I'm just gonna wait, wait, wait, and then bet canello. If you if you're making up bet,

what are you doing? Well? If if I was, if I'd been making the bet before, and I don't know you know better than mere Where where uh Jacobs started out as an underdog? Um, and I don't know where. What are the oddvent now minus four fifty right now thereabouts on Canello plus three fifty on Danny Danny Jacobs Daniel Jacobs. So Jacobs is a plus three he's getting He's the underdog, right, He's the underdog, that's right. And as as with every underdog, people will bet the underdog

pretty much up until fight time. Yeah, they will. If I had gotten there earlier, when the odds were even better Jacobs, I would have bet Jacobs because I think there would have been value there. Now you're probably in the right spot because you can probably get it right

when right around fight time you'll get better odds. And if you believe in Canelo in this fight, um, then it's better to do that and then you know, and then get the odds because uh, um, he probably deserves to be a little bit more of a favorite than you. He'll go off at Yeah, so you know, but and and far be it from me to tell you about betting on a sporting event. But but you know, I mean, this is one of these things that listen when it's boxing. Alan, you know this, and I you know, I'm not I'm

not breaking any news here. Betting on boxing has this you know, the thing that's always the voice in the back of your head, which is like this could anything could happen here with these judges, right, so and so my things. Yeah, that's true, and it makes it different than other sports. You know, other sports, crazy things can happen that you can lose, you up that um of crazy turn of the ball, you know, some weird call,

who knows what else. But in boxing, you know, it's one of the few sports city when it goes to distance, you're still not you don't know who won, right, you can't tell. So of course that's a that's a that's a something that you've got a factor into what you do. Unfortunately, and you know when you get these benches that are close calls, um, you know you swipt those out. Al Bernstein, the legend that is Al Bernston again singing at the Tuscany what's the date on that I'll be there from seven,

will come out and have some fun. Well, and I'm gonna be giving some of my books away and love of a good time, all right, Al, thank you so much for waking up this morning. I appreciate it, very nice to chat with you. You do a great job and continue to chat. Thank you about about that the bat back back of the boat.