Beating The Book: 144rd Preakness Stakes Preview and Picks & 2019 Q1 MLB Derivative Stats + William Hill Denies Massive Payout

That is wedged in between the meat of this one preceded by the interview that I had on my Visa show with the Better who walked into a Reno william Hills sports Book thought he won six hundred nine thousand dollars after the Kentucky derby, only to win thirty five thousand. That story precedes the Preakness picks, and the picks are followed by the mlb Q one derivative show. All your five inning and first inning stats included. It's the Beating

the book podcast. Enjoy. This is a number game with Jill Manandard broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and Information Network. Those studios who believe in the analytics, analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers and Gil has every number you need to catch your tickets now live from the Visa Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino.

It's Gil Alexander in the place to be. It's a numbers game right here at Visa Vegas Stats that information network series except Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Footbo TV, Sling TV, and of course Game Plus in Canada. In New York City. We appreciate everybody tuning in today. It's Gil Alexander. Did I mention that Jeff Parls is here as well? Good morning, Jeffrey

Um Marco is here. By the way, Marco was sticking around because the next segment, Uh, Dr freelanders coming on and we'll have you crack and I talking to him. Dr Freelander is again. Uh, the gentleman who um was denied a massive payout at a William hillboat before he gets here, and we'll talk to him and then we'll get we'll get opinions afterwards. But you know, let me let me go with how I view this, and then you tell me if I'm nuts. How I view it

is this way. So he went to a William Hill shop, that is that does not delve into the paramutual odds pool and so um the issue is, was it clearly stated at that sports book, and that's really what the debate may come down to, was it clearly stated that they were using ultimately their own odds. Their odds were kept um And so my thing is it's gonna come down to that. And by the way, people who think, oh gaming will never side with him, that's actually not true.

You never know with gaming. My thing is this, and I think this, and I'll say this again next hour, but I want to get your opinion on this. To me, the real thing here that's not being spoken about enough is maybe, and maybe it is in some circles. So I don't want to say that no one is. But if you have a ticket taker at that behind the counter, the person who is taking that bet at this william Hills shop in Reno, Nevada, if that person cared at

all about their job. And this is the reason this is so near and dear to all of us, is this is so reflective of apathetic people behind counters in certain companies more than others. Here in Las Vegas, h william Hill being one of them. Uh, the company that those letters never can't give a damn uh c g. They have guys, not everybody, but who don't seem to care. Sometimes they're apathetic in the job. But if that if

that ticket. If that if that person behind the counter had just said to this person, hey, listen the size of your bet here, just to let you know our odds are capped. Maybe you want to either reduce your bed or you know, we have another shop across the way there where it is actually in the paramutual pool. Maybe you go make that bet over there so you get your bang for your buck. Isn't that really where

this starts? It doesn't it, you know, not being there and being able to see where they have the signage and how visible it is. But it's gonna be buy or beware. If it's fine print somewhere, it's still you know, your responsibility, check your tickets and understand. But it should say at least right in the board non paramutual waging somewhere that needs to be displayed. That's the biggest question

because then you can ask the question. But again, most people betting the Kentucky Derby that are just casual betters. They don't know the difference between paramutual and non paramutual aging, right. But so so that's the thing. So now we'll find out what he contends. Where the where the fine print was, if it was really visible or was it not from

his perspective? But that's again, and I just say this in this in this day of legalization, Marco, like this kind of you know, this kind of gray area where like, oh was it properly displayed? Was it not? Let's face it, most betters are uneducated, right. I don't know that Dr Freelander isn't is an educated will find out from him momentary really, but like you can't do the same way.

And let let me say, beyond the ticket taker, right beyond the person behind the counter, isn't there some approval process like in sports, which is a different jurisdiction in the William hillsphere, by the way, it should be pointed out, but in sports, there's an approval process for every single bet. Don't we know that? Right? Like every time you make a bet of Eddy, Oh, they're they're watching it. Shouldn't there have been one on another level for this as well?

They should have with you know from what I saw with the article and he had forty dollar try effected ticket. Those are huge bat um, which again that goes to the ticket seller. I don't think you ever really have that issue with horse racing because for the most part, everyplace else is para mutual. Doesn't matter who wins, they don't care. They've got their set fee. And I don't know that anybody on I don't want to dismiss ticket writers,

but or at that pay grade they even understand. Yeah, but the complication listen, I don't want to crowbar the south Point into this just because we're here at the south Point. But people know, like you know, Chrissie Andrews, Vinny Malula, we love these guys. Let me let me prompt, let me speak on their behalf just for a second. If someone here works and is apathetic or doesn't care or doesn't care to inform like the way, they will

not be here. I think I'm okay speaking on their behalf on that, like, because because they do, this place is done lovingly right, and you just can't in this day and age, you can't have this. And so you're right. Look, we're gonna find out and and I'm not taking one. I'm not wholly on one side here, because we'll find

out what the circumstances are. But I just think it's it's just an fascinating situation, and with legalization ever more, a situation that should be highlighted Dr Friedlander next on a numbers game at Vista Now live from vis Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of a numbers game right here at

Visa the Bay. That's an information networks serious XM Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App, Fobo TV, Sling TV Game Plus throughout Canada and New York City and very parts of New Jersey. We appreciate everybody listening this morning. Uh, this should be very interesting. Joining me

here for the first segment. By the way, in studio Marco D'Angelo as well, coming off his Breakness talk here earlier and as always Thursday Second Hour, s O. Buddy at at Bill Crackman with the K on Twitter, Sir Fred Bill Crackenberg, Good morning, Billy, Good morning. How you guys doing doing very well? Good? Nice? Just Uh, I was just telling my buddy, my buddy, Brian. I came over with I don't know how people do it every morning, like it really is tough to do, wake up to

an alarm clock. I do it once a weekend. I'm pissed. Yeah, you know, if you if you could interview me well, first of all forgetting me. How about Mitch and Pauli here for four in the morning. Yeah, but if you could, if you could stick a mic in my face, like that's the few seconds that you wake up, as many people do with an alarm clock, it would be a totally different response than it would be now. So so those guys are going to bed that means like nine o'clock,

then I am right. This is my thing with Bish and Pauli, And I say this to everybody I go. I have so much respect for them because if you told me today you're like, all right, Gil, tomorrow you're gonna start doing four am, might be like, yeah, okay, we're good. Like I would just I would just bug out right there, because I don't know how they're able at that hour to speak about sports with nuance, you know, interest and insight. So it's an amazing thing. And when

I asked him what's your routine? Their response is fast and there like it's never the same man. Wow, So they can hang out and drinking at midnight sometimes I don't know about that. Yeah, guys, Oh no, that's great though that could be as well. Maybe that's the secret. But yeah, no, Hey, look, we're talking sports. It's a

beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing. We're blessed. Uh and uh, yesterday you know, I was sitting around the old house as like, you know, let let me let me see if I can find this gentleman Dr. C. Friedlander, who is the gambler to you, the guy who went into

a book there in Reno, Nevada, William Hill book. And uh, well, let's just say he made a wager that, thanks to maximum securities, disqualification resulted at least in the paramutual pool what would have been six hundred nine thousand dollars worth of winnings. However, uh, there was some fine prints somewhere, and we'll get to the bottom of where that fine

print might have been. He ends up getting capped at thirty five thousand dollars and so uh I tracked him down, ladies and gentlemen kind enough to join us, and we'll bring him in right now. Uh. Dr Friedlander, thank you for coming. Are you in the middle? Are you in between surgeries this morning? Is that what I understand? Hey, good morning, go well, I'm on my way to do some eye surgery up. Okay, I keep the job. You know, yeah,

I do. I know. Well obviously now you do that, and I think that's the difference, right, six nine thousand is life changing money. Thirty five thousand not so much. Um, So let's start at the let's start at the beginning. First of all, how often do you bet horses specifically? Well, I do. I do bet sports. Uh, I think fairly frequently, but horses, you know, probably once a year, maybe on the first Saturday in May, maybe on the you on

the first Saturday May. So tell me that. Okay, so it was a guy who bets horses maybe once a year, on the first Saturday, maybe the Derby. How did you arrive at your handicap? Ah? Well, uh, so I have a friend that that sends me um just their handicap, you know, once a year, and it's very interesting and they usually with dramatically. And uh this year they had a country house as one of the potential um, you know, exotic plays. So I saw that and it's stuck in

my mind. Um, my fiancee's name is House. And I thought, okay, that horse. Uh put that horse on the ticket and uh and I liked, like the eight horse tasks this um and we put put two other horses on my ticket, and I did a four horse exact box and four horse trifact to box with the same four horses. Yeah, let's list them right here if we do have that on the screen here at Visa dot com, the Visa and a half, Fobo TV, S League TV, and of

course on Game Plus as well. So it was six hundred dollars on the number eight horse tacitus, uh show bet to win place or show hundred dollar exact box on the Tacitus, the eight horse thirteen number thirteen, Code of Honor, number sixteen, game Winner, number twenty country House, then the one dollar trifecta box on those same four horses Tacitus, Code of Honor, Game Winner, and country House. So the forty dollars we transcribed it in properly there,

Sorry about that, So forty dollar try faed right? So, um, the total outlay for you was how much? Then? Here I think about okay, So, and did you say you went into so take me how you decided which book to go to? Sure? Sure? So you know. Um, I live in the south part of Reno and my son was running in a high school track meet down in Carson City farther south, and so I was on my way to the track meet, and um, that was the

closest book. It was. On the way was a William Hill at a at the Tamarack Junction, which is a small um slot machine oriented casino that has a has the William Hill sports book there, and so I went in there and I made the bets, and I, you know, I was in a hurry to get to the track meet, so I just went in, made the bets and left, went to the track meet, came home, watched the race.

I thought I had lost, you know, all my tickets given the initial outcome, and then when they threw the inquiry sign up, UM, I had to sort of do a double take. I didn't really know what the rules were, if the horse I was gonna be disqualified one place or or more. Uh, And then I realized that he was going to be off the board. That I had the number two and three horses on my exact ticket.

So once they once they disqualify maximum security and who had won the exact I didn't quite know how much until they flashed the winnings on there and it said the three thousand nine dollars for a two dollar ticket and of course I had a hundred dollar ticket. Uh,

so that was pretty exciting. And then uh, I looked a little bit to the right missile to trifect the numbers, and that one I had to do a double take on because, um, you know, you don't expect to hit that, And um, sure enough the eight horse was now in third place, and I hit the trifect as well, and that paid something like eleven thousand, five hundred for a dollar and I had forty dollars on it. So yeah,

it was. There was a couple of hours there where you know, I was on cloud nine, on cloud nine, So those couple of hours and then again we're talking to Dr Steve Friedlander, who made uh the wagers that we are just talking about at a William Hill book there and reno all the circumstances that he's just laying out. So two hours later you go back. Is that when you went back and you're like, I think I want a lot of money here. Yeah, so I went in.

I and you know, one of the one of the things I was struggling with on my drive down back down to the book was how much do I tip the book writer here? You know? The direction, Um, because I don't know what the guidelines are for that. And um, so I go in and I see the guy. I go, hey, you're the one that sold me these tickets. He's like yeah. I said, well they hit and he said really. I

said yeah, I think it's a lot of money. And he said how much and I said I think it's over six And he said, we don't have that kind of money here and I said, well, I didn't think he did. I wasn't expecting to walk out with cash from this book. Um. But then he got the more senior writer who looked at my tickets and said, oh, we have you know, he said, we have caps on these and he pointed to this eight by ten placard that was on the exact opposite end of the counter

from where I made my bets that morning. And you know, it says we're not a paramutual location. And then if you turn it on the back, it has, you know, a bunch of fine print that says they're they're exact. The payouts are capped at at one and trifecta cap cap was one. So that's where the came from. Yeah, so the the odds are capped, not the payout, but

the odds are capped. So the previous segment, Dr freed Lander, I was making the case and just sort of in the run up to to talking with you where I believe you know one, you've just said the placards on the other end from where you made the bet. The actual black and white fine print is on the back of something. So I'm guessing part of your contention is the fact that it was not uh that accessible to you, was not obvious. I also contend, and I'm curious, Okay,

go ahead, I'm sorry, it's not it wasn't conspicuous. Wasn't conspicuous. So I also contend that that gentleman that you that took your bet, that there was an obligation. This is

just my my opinion. Tell me if you agree here there was an obligation on his part, if he cares about his job, right, if he's doing his job, that he understands the bets that you're making and knowing right, he ought to know what that record saying, He ought to know what the fine print is on the back of that sheet, and he ought to say to you at that point, hey, just so you know, here are where these odds were not in a paramutual pool, so our odds are capped at at this and that, and

so therefore you should either bet less or hey, we have these other William Hill properties where we are in the paramutual pool. Maybe you should head on over there. Does that stick in your crowd? All? Oh? Absolutely? Yeah? And and you know some of the irony is is that if my son's track would have been on the north side of town like it like it was just last Saturday, I would have gone into the Grand Sierra and bet at the William Hill there, which is a

paramutual location. And then you know, probably wouldn't be on your show right now, just just the vagaries of that. Just when your son's tracked me was so, what is so? I guess Dr Freedlander. Then you know, the question becomes, what are you going to do now? How are you pursuing this? Um? Well, so, you know, I think that it's important given the you know how sports betting is

sort of slowly taking over the nation. We had two states legalized in the last week, and more and more coming online, and there's gonna be more and more new betters that are going to be walking into sports parlors and they just need to know, you know, the rules and the regulations need to be clear. I would hate for something like this to happen to somebody else. So, UM, I I'm happy. I'm glad, you know, allow me to

say that and sort of get that word out. I think that's important as far as myself, I'm you know, I'm pursuing to see whatever the Nevada Gaming Control Board has to say about this, um, and they make a determination within forty five days, and then you know, it's a it's a process after that. But um, you know, I think I think the chances of me collecting uh this total amount are greater than me hitting the trifecta on the Preakness, but not much. Well, you know, you

know what, I'm not so sure. By the way, I'm not so sure because because you know, a lot of people sort of flippantly say, oh, gaming is never gonna back you. Actually gaming backs the better more than people think. And I, first of all, I think you're right. Your chances of getting this are better than you're hitting the trifect on the Preakness, that's for sure. But you know,

I'm not so sure this doesn't go your way. But I really do appreciate your first point, which is why I, more than just hearing your specific story, wanted to have you on uh. This story, by the way, first reported by the Action Network. Let me give credit to where it is due here. Um, you you make the better point, which is for me, all of these situations come down to. For me, it is now post legalization that is the biggest point to all of this and in this new uh,

in this new reality. You're absolutely right like these shenanigans, I'll use that, that's my word, right, but these kinds of gray areas have to go away, and that's really at the core of all of this, isn't it. I think we lost Dr Freeland. Either that or my words were still pathetic. Yeah, yeah, go ahead, Yes, there, go ahead. Okay, I'm sorry, they'll go please, I did I cut out just for a second. Oh no, I'm what I'm saying

is beyond your specific point. I think you're your broader point for me is why I wanted you on here, which is it's this is post legalization. Right. This is a year almost to the day of the Supreme Court overturning or ruling PASPA unconstitutional. We can't have this anymore. We just can't, right right, So book like William Hill. William Hill wants to be America's sports book, you know, and I and and people are gonna have choices where they place their bets. Yeah, well listen, I mean here's

the other thing about this. I just want to throw in something else to the mix. And Marco you you can tell me as a longtime horse player, and I'll throw this in as well. Dr Freedlander. And this is kind of neither here nor there, but it's also part of the mix. Is I don't want to leave any

detail out. William Hill UK rose to prominence based on horse racing specifically, So that's another thing that I would throw in here, Like if you go to way William Hill book, and if it's not necessarily uh conspicuously to use the doctor's word, conspicuously shown the rules, you know, because you go into that book thinking well, they're they're the horse racing company. Some people might come in there thinking well, obviously this is gonna work out. It's William Hill,

for God's six. They they you know, they came to prominence on this. That's another thing in to here where I'm like, you've got to be able to trust the people you're betting with. Yeah, for a day like the Kentucky Derby, which and nothing against Mr Freelander, but these are people, like he says, he bets once a year the Kentucky Derby, and I talked to you all every

year when we do it. You asked me why I think there's so much money in the Kentucky Derby is because there's so much recreational money put into what's the term you used to dead money? There you go, you know, But for the for the sharp guys, we we want everybody doing that because we want to take the slice. But for them not to say, you know, it's you know, I don't want to use the word amateur. But I always talked to you about going to del mar An

opening day. It's an event. It's also a nightmare for people that actually bet because half the races you get shut out. The lines are so long. People don't know what they're doing. They're doing all they should be telling people coming up you. You do understand we're non paramutual. Just it should be right at the windows. That's the that's the case. The only case that I feel that you can make is that they should have it, especially

on a day like the Kentucky Derby. And I'll and I'll say what I said in the previous seven case people missed it, just contrasting it with the place like the South Point. Not to not to crow bar them into this, but those those ticket writers, they go away after a while from here and it's just not tolerated right that this the job is done lovingly, So Dr Freedlander, because I know you've got to get to your surgery here and I do appreciate you coming on the show.

By the way, I don't know how active you are on Twitter, but your Twitter is your Twitter handle is at the Reno doc People should know Dr Freedlander is an off themologist there in Reno. So you did you do this once a year? Um, I'm guessing you're not going to bet the Preakness. If you are, I'm sure everybody wants to hear what horses you're picking for goodness sake, right right, Yeah, we're gonna keep those goes close to

the vest right now. Okay, Yeah, look at Dr I's like, no, I can't tell you that information, you can't give you that, you can't give you that you know on one other point, if if just have another minute, is Liz, uh, you know when you look at when you look at this five one cap on this trifect to pay out, if you look at the last twenty five years of Kentucky Derby trifecta payouts, that cap has exceeded in nineteen of those twenty five years, and sometimes by quite a bit.

I think in two thousand five it was a six figure payout, hundred twenty three dollars for a dollar. Imagine if you are a guy in Iowa, Indiana, and you go and you place a one dollar trifecta bed and then you think you've won a hundred and twenty thousand dollars and they pay you five hundred. Oh my good. That is criminal to me. Yeah, it's criminal, you know. And I don't know where these odds come from and how they are allowed to to set them there, stealing

expected value out of the pool, just stealing. I'm gonna let that rest right there on those words. Dr Freedlander, Thank you. Uh. We're going to see how this goes for you, and I'd love to have you on either way when this finally gets decided for you. Thanks Jill. Dr Dr Steve Freedlander from Reno, Nevada, tracked him down. That's what I do the rest of the day. I just tracked down people. It's part of my job. I

think I appreciate him coming on. He has by the way, he's kind enough because he's got surgery days like well, let me, let me try to squeeze. And so he's on his way. So somebody after that, I hope he's not too riled up, is going to have him working on their eyes. So we, uh we hope that goes well. I called him dead money. I am not getting my eyes done there exactly. You know what you actually you you uh, you held back on that. It's not what you used to call Do you remember what you used

to call it. It wasn't dead money. It was another D word. It's called dumb money. Yeah, okay, same thing, all right. Um, so that's fascinating, Bill. I want to get your thoughts on this. Can we let's do a braake. Let's get your thoughts on, Bill Crackerburg. I'm sure with much to set here on a numbers game right here at VESA back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in

Las Vegas. Back on numbers game right here at Veson has my Brooks Kept update going Jeff we' in a co tie or rather tied for the lead rather co leader Kept Fleetwood four under look list three under and Kept could just make this easy for all of us, Just just run it. Just roll only bet I made beforehand because he's Brooks Kepta. By the way, we will never see I got it close to eleven and one. I think there were twelve or thirteen ones out there at one point closed at six to one. Keptco wins

this tournament. We're never seeing double digits on kept cover again ever again. People chiming in on Twitter at beating the book always appreciate it. I'll try to uh to cherry pick some here, Paul Zim. I don't disagree with you Gil about apathetic ticket writers and supervisors, but as someone who prides himself on the details with his customers, I appreciate that you did not lump all of us together. Nevada books in general need to increase the customer service

at the book level. Could not agree more with that. Um exactly how many bogus calls of the sharks need to win the cup still like carry over from our shark stock earlier. Um, let's see here's one right here, Gil. This is from Billy mc vegas. Gill as big as Will Hill is. Wouldn't it just be easier to pay this man his money? Send this to you, Marco. The bad publicity alone seems like it would hurt them more

than the payout. They're not going to pay that out in the big question is why does Will Hill not half paramutual if they're taking bets paramutul They do it at many of their books, right. There's no risk for them. It's all profit. It's set profit. Like people that don't understand racing when they see long shots win, they go, oh my god, the track got killed. No, it doesn't matter. They get a set percentage of the handle, and people that take Paramutual off track get a set percentage of

their handle. It's a pure profit, no risk. This is a risk, and that's why they put caps on it because it's lottery tickets. This is bigger than those you know, ten team two dollar parlays that people you know hit and they post the tickets and how big it is. They know those guys over time are gonna bet in the horse racing world, They're not gonna make up a hit like that when somebody hits a lottery ticket. Billy,

you've been patient. No marks right there too, because the money already the track doesn't lose, it's taken out of the pools. A matter of fact, some people know from my writing and gaming today, and there's just to me being on this show, Um, I'm against horse racing. I think it's a sucker bet their ticket of least exotic and dry effect this, you know, And and it's instant gratification people want. They love going every twelve minutes, every

two minutes, every thirty minutes, we're out of track. So um, it's so hard to overcome up to ten times more than a sports betting. It's just I don't like. Really, I didn't even met the Derby, but now I will time to time butt the Derby or a big race or something. But maybe a name or a color of something or horse, you know, But generally speaking, I don't. I don't bet horse racing, and I think it's if you're not on the inside, you're on the outside. So

there is a select few, a very small minority. Listen, we've all get horse race tips and um, you know, my whole life, I've been losing a horse race tips. Who hasn't done that? Yeah, I mean listen, every single trainer, every single owner, every single inside person thinks their horse has a shot without thinking of the other horses in the race that also were giving out tips to their family and friends also. So how do you think this goes for Dr Freed later? He's got no shot to

get paid? No, no, I say zero. Yeah, you're you're you're fighting up up all battle. There was a plaquard. There's surprisingly I'm gonna not not that I'm sticking up for will Hill trust me because they deserve it for a lot of other reasons. But listen, there was a plaquard there. I know the off shore world they do CAP.

Each track is CAP does an A, B, C, DE R E. Listening of a track A being like the big like Belmont and del Mars, and uh you know D or C or C or D being like Louisiana Downs or even a smaller little track loss Alomdos or something small. Um surprisedly, I know those games, right, I know, but very impressed, so so uh there is a cap on each one, and and you know that there's a cap for a reason, because, let's just face it, maybe these people are maybe people here are here this for

the first time. It's really easy to manipulate these smaller race tracks. So Bill Krackerburger goes into the racetrack and I bet the two to one shot, you know, um opposite, I'm sorry, I bet all the long shots, uh to win, you know, for which is going to change the odds bucks for runde bucks or a horse. And now the two to one shot goes to tend the one because I just manipulated the field. But now I'm going to bet into us something that's nonpower mutual, that doesn't go

into the pool. And now I'm actually betting a lot of money at that place, um or even off shore that takes things that that takes bets. So it's easily easily to be it's easy to be manipulated. So you said, no shot on this? How much what would add you give me on? Yes, there is a shot because I'm taking because you know, what my reaction initially was was no shot. That was my reaction initially. I don't know,

would you remember that thing that happened. And I know this was a New Jersey and it's a different jurisdiction. What was the was there an in game on a Denver Broncos game? You remember that, Jeff, and we were all like, oh, there's no way this guy is getting it because us J ruled for him. Yeah, there a new jurisdiction though there it's a little bit different. No, Listen, no one's been more critical of Nevada Gaming than I have.

I'm just saying, listen, if this let me just throw this show into the mix two, if if we're going to display the power of what this can do, I think there's a shot. I do. I think he has a somewhat Listen, I get it by the letter you're saying, there's a placard over there. There's a little fine print behind this thing. But you got like, Nevada, get with it. You can't let this happen. Now. Remember my my NFL Draft prop caper last year. That's when they were just

that's on the sports side different. That was just pure thievery. And if you weren't kill Alexander, you would still have not you wouldn't have been paid your listeners wouldn't have been paid. And that's said, we have a company like that here in Nevada. That's uh and and actually nationwide now that they kind of think they're bigger, they're like above the law. They're they're they're on above the law.

They think that anyway. So um, that's that's a sad thing. Um, Marco, you think no shot too, though I think there's there's no shot. And the other thing, it's the response. It's the responsibility of the person placing the bed. If you go to any track, okay, even if you go here South. If I go up to the window and I tell them I want one to three boxed and punches one to four and I walk away from the window without checking my tickets, there's nothing I can do about it.

Every day all over town too. It's the responsibility. And no matter where they had it, if it was somewhere there, do I think they should have had it right at the window, taped right there when you're looking down at the very board point excellent point, that's where they should have it. Non paramutual, have a plaque. That's the point, right, Marco, Like, okay, it's posted. But according to Dr Friedlander and this is the case he'll make with gaming. Oh yeah, it's posted.

It's posted where I would never look. But AT's the point. It's a shame he can't use the offshore world because the big sports books off shore, like Chris uh, they book horses obviously, and they book them in house, and they pay out track percentage of the track numbers up until a certain point. Also there however, for big races like that, like the Bellmont, like k Lucky Derby, as far as I know, they give you a track ods,

so they're gonna pay it. They're not gonna so for a copy, and like will Hill to do this, it actually was probably better off of them paying than getting the bad press, because really you shouldn't be patronizing a casino or sports book that that does have this rule and effect. It's why I'm doing the show. I'mill make them pay. That's serious. I hope you do. Here's another one right here, Marco, you help me out or bill either one of you from that Pepsi guy on Twitter.

I'm not a horse player. Uh so sorry if it's common knowledge, But with a non paramutual book, do those books post the win amount with those caps on it? Um no, probably not no, No, not at all. Um Again, it's the odds that are capped, not not a maximum payout. Back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas.

Not only do we have the second leg of the Triple Crowd, of course, but we have golf second major of the year going on right now, early first round. Let's get back to Preakness before we get your more specific bets. Uh. The aforementioned Chris Felika, Uh, friend of the show The Glue that keeps ESPNS College Game Day together, also on Daily Wager, also half of the Stanford Steve in the Bear podcast. He has a question for everybody.

In the last six years, ten of the eighteen horses to complete the trifecta were at least nine to one, and six were at least fifteen to one. Give us the double digit priced horse on the morning line most likely to hit the board. Well, I've already you've already given it, Yeah, Bourbon wore. The other long shot that I like is owen Dale. Owen Dale would be the other one, Peter, I'm gonna go with Warriors Charge for that. Honor.

I think he's got a chance, a real chance to be the best of speed here, and sometimes in racing, that's that's, that's all it takes, not just to hit the board, but potentially to win the race. I'm very it was very, very impressed by this horse's last race. I was there that day at Oaklawn and it came back very nice on the clock. And I'm a big Warriors Charge fan. I can't wait to see what he's got in the tank on Saturday. Flatterman, same question. Yeah,

I'm gonna go with owen Dale. I know he's been mentioned, but I think that the whole idea that uh, you know, if Warriors Charges not a rabbit in the field to be a rabbit, he could still run like a rabbit. And if he helps set the pace out front, uh with market King, and you start seeing twenty two and forty four fly up on the board, then somebody's going to come from behind and win it. Owen Dale did

win the Lexington Stakes. Talking to Brad Cox a little while ago down here, he tells me that owen Dale really, uh you know, he's he's suffered some wide trips and one despite that at the Lexington Stakes thinks he's coming into his own. They regrouped with the horse during the middle of the campaign when they were trying to get him to the Kentucky Derby. They kind of started from scratch, and things look like they're going forward with him, and so I don't know that he'll be tend to one.

I think there could be a little bit more steam on him and could a lower but at least right now, tend to one both on the morning line and at the West Gate. Uh would be my would be my long shot play. All right, Marco D'Angelo, tell me how you've been this thing. Well, I'm gonna key off three horses on the top. I'm gonna use Bourbon War, I'm gonna have Improbable in case, you know, we get the dry track, and that was the excuse, and then i'm

gonna have Owendel. Those are the three horses I'm keying off, and then I'll put other horses, you know, and anybody can run in that third spot, so I'll have probably a little deeper run to the third spot. But that's where we're going, and I think it's gonna be an evenly bet race where you're gonna be able to get good payouts here. I would think so. By the way, I've never seen you and I have been together for many Derby's many I mean the least five or six

at this point. Never seen you so subdued during a derby. Is this point never seen you said? Now. There have been ones where I you I literally look over at you and I'm like, someone, get Marco professional help immediately. But this one you were just and I guess you could see it in improbables run where you just felt like that horse was not going to break out of

that of that pack. It was more that, as I said on all the shows, my disclaimer was, if Maximum Security is a real horse, which we're gonna find out on Saturday, it's going to leave a bruise on Marco because I wasn't a believer. I am now, but I wasn't then. I love when you refer to yourself in the third person. That's like my favorite thing ever. Peter,

how you doing this one? I am going to try to take of you against the derby horses, potentially a move that that's dangerous, but I just think value for money wise, there's a world in which this is one of these exception Derby's where you're not going to see those horses necessarily come back and run. Well. I think there's a world in which you can take kind of a dim view of the form in the Derby, given how many horses were clustered around the wire at the end,

and there's just a lot of exciting horses. We've talked about them again and again. I mean owen Dale Warriors charge Bourbon war I could see your exact coming from that group. And that's how I'm gonna play it. I'm gonna do. It'll be a it'll it'll be a nice score, or it'll be go home for me. And you know, I think if the risk reward makes that a smart strategy this year. All right, Ron from Baltimore, right there

on the scene. What you got? Yeah. By the way, Marco, I know you were here when Survivor won the very first Freakness by ten lengths back in eight I know you were telling my grandfather, the late Jedediah Flatter, that that was the horst Bus. So I would really be remiss and ignoring what you're saying, but I'm going to go ahead and do so. And mentioned a horse that we haven't mentioned yet, but it's certainly getting a lot

of talk here in Baltimore. And that is Always Mining, the number seven horse trained by Kelly Ruby, trying to become the first woman to train a Preakness winner in the four year history of the game of the race. That is eight to one morning line at at the Westgate. All Always Mining has done is when six races in a row, all here in Maryland, granted not amongst the company,

that is as good as the Preakness? Or is it because we don't have the top three Derby horses here, No horse from the Derby that hit the board in this race. That's the first time we've said that's this nineteen fifty one. New shooters have only one four times since four in this race, but they hit the board most years if they don't necessarily win it. And by the way, two years ago, Cloud Computing was a new shooter that won the race. So I'm going to key off of War of Will. I think he's he may

be the most athletic horse in the race. You're gonna be It's gonna be a short price, but I think he's going to be there. So I'll put him and Always Binding on top I'm not going to throw out Improbable completely, but I really wonder if he can get the distance. That's the big question on him. And then I'm going to throw in, as I mentioned before, Owen Dale, and I'm gonna throw in Bourbon War and uh, we'll see what happens from there on the exotics. Alright, Ron,

appreciate you coming on this morning. I know you just flew into Baltimore, so thank you for changing your shirt. Man, Thank you. Yeah, and I'm glad you were able to see it with the fine technolog even we were able to deploy here fifteen pounds of extra equipment and my bag. But I think I'm gonna throw off the rooftop here at the old hill Top. Everybody, everybody who had Flatter at minus five thousand to make a technology gripe. Everyone

cash is thank you. Oh by the way, Ron Flatter Racing Pod with an emal Ulo, Dave Tooley, h We got Patrick McGuigan and Johnny Avello. It is up and running right now. Serious hand handicappers can listen to opinions pluses minuses on all thirteen horses Visa dot Com, slash podcast plus iTunes, Apple, Google, Stitcher, and Gills toaster. There it is Rod Flatter everybody Thron Flatter Racing Pod available. All podcasts are distributed. Thank you Ron, Thank you. Peter

Ford tal appreciate it. Peter as always always back for the Belmont Okay, love it. Josh Cowers is here though, he's here to talk baseball with us. Yesterday you texted me out of the blue because you're angry about baseball. What's the story? Have you watched it? I have. It's just a terrible product of what used to be a good game. Is your anger carrying over to this morning? Is that why you're in a helmet this morning? No, not at all. Not. I mean, you know, coffee didn't

kick in maybe today. Um, you just hate the quality play. What's interesting about it is that game is kicking a huge step back. Word for sure. I talk about how handicapping is more difficult baseball now than it was three or four years ago because the delution of pitching, and you countered by saying the hitting's worse. The talents of the players is definitely better, but it doesn't matter when they don't know how to use their talent. And like,

let's use Canny for example, what the Angels. He's he got called up after a hundred minor league innings, right, So talent, why sure, he has the stuff. They all have the stuff to play in the big leagues, otherwise they wouldn't have been drafted. They all have the physical abilities. What could a kid have learned in a hundred twenty nine innings that's going to prepare him for the major leagues.

The major leagues is not a level where you go up there and learn how to cut and relay and learn the positions you need to be in the major league level is the advanced level of your the elite of the elite, and now they're trying to in essence, teach the game of baseball at the major league level. Well, once you're there, you feel like you know everything. So when I say something pedestrian to you about a position to be in, you don't want to hear it. You're

not gonna hear it. All I know, I know, I know, But you continue to get in the wrong position. So if you know, why do you continue to do the things wrong? Right? So, if you bring a guy like Handing up, let's say, and you put him in the big leagues, he's going to fail for a few years because there's a lot of things that he's never learned that he's asked to do. Now. So when I got to the major leagues, the years I spent abilagues, I learned more about the game of baseball than I thought

that I ever did my whole life. Like there was things that I I just wasn't shocked at, Like, oh my god, I didn't even know this was a possibility. I didn't know that it was a completely different game. You're not playing the same game you've ever learned. You have to get in and you have to get experiences. You have to learn to fail. You have to do all kinds of different things before you're fully prepared. Now, I know we all get brought up at different times.

They're rushing kids to the big leagues at such an early age these days, they're not learning the game of baseball. So we're watching the most. Like I said, pedestrian mistakes happen, things that like why did you do that? You you would know better, but they don't know better because if you go back to where they're coming from a youth baseball,

the game is not being taught anymore. Right, So we're doing things to elevate the talent level, but we're doing things to not teach the guys how to play the game. So they're rushing guys to the big leagues and they're making mistakes that should never happen. I mean, I remember sitting in the big leagues when I got called up

watching a game on TV. I can remember this, like, I'm there and there's a play on TV and Cal Ripken it came and stood next to me, and I thought Cal was gonna yell at me for being in side and out on the bench, and he goes, did you see that play? And I was like, yeah, I saw it. And he's like, did you see what the shortstop did? And I was like, I might have missed

that one. And the shortstop didn't throw the guy out at home on the relay as the ball hit the left center field and Cal said, he goes, when the shortstop was going out for that cut, he should have looked back to see where he needed to line up. So as he's running, he's got to run and look to know exactly where he wants to be because he has to be he has to line himself up. What the outfielder is gonna do is his job is to get the ball as fast as possible and turn around

and get it in as fast as possible. You got the proofield. So when I turned to throw the ball in, I'm gonna pick somebody up as I'm in motion, and that's where the ball is gonna end up going. If my shortstop or whoever is cutting is offline, that's where the outfitder is gonna bring the ball in the quickest

way uh point eight points a straight line. Right. So if I don't get in position as a relay guy, if I'm in bad position, the outfielder turns, he might divert the throw to an angle that's no longer a straight line, so it takes a lot longer for the ball to get home. So if the shortstop in that position and that circumstance doesn't put himself in the right position, then he's failed the team. Right, So the outfiter comes up, gets the ball and sees the guy. I gotta get

there early and put my hands up. I gotta give this guy to get to get to I also have to know my arm strength and his arm strength. Who deserves to have the longer throw? Do I have a stronger arm to my outfielders. My outfield have a stronger line or on than you, So I have to know where to position myself based off of that and based

off of the throw that I gotta make home. Now we see middlelandfielders second basements a lot one hop short hop the catcher because they put themselves in a wrong position as far as distance to make the throw home. So they got to know that they have to back up an extra fift so when they throw it it's a nice one hop and not a short hop. Or they gotta go back further long enough to throw the ball in the air to catch it. So all these things have to factor in. Are you gonna know that

instantaneously on a play like that? This is all premititate stuff that you have to spring training practice. Earlier work talked about. This is all stuff that you have to do. Why because you're a professional baseball player, you're at the advanced level, you're making millions of dollars to be lead. Anybody can go out there gil you meet, anybody can go out there and put ourselves in a wrong position and just go to the motions. They're not allowed to

do that because of who and what they are. Just just tell me who the who the biggest, biggest clubs, Who are the offenders of this more than others are? Or is it just league wide and you can't it really is league wide? It really, I mean you can look at a lot of different stats and see why teams are in last place, But when you when when when guys are getting themselves in the wrong positions and guys are safe in all Like the naked eye just sees a double and a guy safe. I don't see

the same game that you guys see. I see. I think I see what should have been prevented. I'm sure pictures in defense we prevent things from happening, and if we do our job. The game looks boring to people, and it's on an elite level to us, So I understand why the game can be boring to your average person. All right, Well, can I speak in my parlance? Now? Can I speak in a betting currency? Because I want

to make I want to make money off this. One of the things that I do every quarter Q one, Q two, Q three during the baseball season, roughly when teams turn the forty game bend if you will, do a derivative show and it's through the prism of betting stats, and we start with the sort of the macro numbers, which are really easily accessible, and then we sort of narrow it down to five inning wagers, first inning wages, and we get more granular, and we'll do that tomorrow.

But let's start with the bigger stuff now, Josh, and I'm curious your reactions to some of these, because these are the uh these are the biggest money winners. These are for betters. Now, this is an exercise. Let me just stayed upfront that we we wonder how much of this is narrative, how much of this is predictive, and these are the top money line teams in baseball just in terms of UH the units you would have won.

This is a bizarro exercise that if you had bet to win a unit or risking unit, if they're a dog to win a unit, if they're a favorite on each of these teams in every single game blindly this season, you would be up the most. With the Minnesota Twins. You'd be up eleven point four three units. This courtesy of cover dot Com. UH Arizona Diamondbacks you'd be would be next. But it's a significant drop from one to two.

The Twins are by far the biggest money winner for blind bedders again Bizarro exercise and baseball, Diamondbacks and Dodgers uh to three Cups and Brewers rounding out the top five. But the Twins definitely the team that stands out there. And it should be noted it's pretty even in terms of home and road for the Twins, and that shouldn't surprise anyone because the Twins are you know, are getting favorable prices and have definitely surprised a lot of people. Uh.

Certainly in the betting market as well. You're into the Twins. You believe they're viable to win that division. I picked the the win division before starting alright bottom five by the way, same category again, bluntly betting these teams. The Nationals are the team that will hammered you the most money thus far this season Q one. You'd be down nearly fourteen units if you bet. If you bet the

Nationals blindly this year. Marlin's right behind them at nearly thirteen always on that list, Red Sox obviously with the poor starter still on that list, third to worst Royals and A's rounding out the top five. Now, if you spritles out in home and road splits. And we have done this for folks here this is at home now the Rangers are actually thus far. Again predictive or just a narrative, or we're just talking Rangers. Best team at home for betters blind betters exercise the Astros and Dodgers,

rounding out the top three. See the Brewers and Cubs also there. But the worst five at home for betters the Nationals. Most of their loss has been at home. Makes sense they tend to be bigger favorites there. The Jay's offensively challenged second worst in their home field, the Orioles at Camden third worst, The Marlins and the Yankees again a lot of big prices on the Yankees in the Bronx when we go away is again blind money line betters. When the team is on the road, the

Diamondbacks are the biggest winners. The Twins get most of their winnings in road games. They were number one overall. Remember money line betters, Pirates, Orioles and Padres Orioles because they've had such big dog prices. When they do win, they cash in a way that puts them on this

top five list. Bottom five, well, No surprises there, although the Astros might surprise people, but again those are prices that make them show up on this list when to do this, although there are money numbers are a little different there on the right, little error, but A's are the worst Rangers, Astros, Marlin's Royals in terms of road money line. Let's just do the run line real quick here and then we'll we'll bounce out in terms of run line, which I'd like to call a de facto

power rating in terms of betting. Um, now, I'll just do it manually, Jeff Jefferson, he doesn't have the graphic. He's panicking back there in terms of the run line. So we're talking about a one and a half run spread here, Josh. So if you win, you win big. If you lose, sometimes you cash because you lose one run games. The number one team in baseball on the run line. Any guesses what they would be for betters blind run line betters this year if that were an exercise.

Winning by winning by one of them. In other ways, you're a one and a half point favorite one and a half game. Excuse want a half run favorite as a favorite, you're one and a half run dog. At

they dog, I would say that Tampa Bay Rays. You are correct, Sir Josh Towers everybody, Tampa Bay Rays, you'd be up ten point to five units betting on the run line again, sort of a de facto power rating on that predictive With the Rays, maybe you can make the case that the way they manipulate their bullpen maybe and their starters, maybe that there is some predictive value

to that. By the way, Number two on the run line in terms of just blind bettors would be the St. Louis Cardinals up nine point to five units roughly, again courtesy of covers, and the Arizona Diamondbacks would be third, up seven units. That doesn't surprise you either, just to the start they got off of them, It's just fascinating how and then they they prolonged it. I mean they were hitting, they were pitching for a while. Uh, it

kind of makes sense. I mean, just by the way they're playing, by the way, Angels third, I lied, and the Diamondbacks would be fourth and the worst. Conversely on the run line, the absolute worst would be the Miami Marlins. They'd be hemorrhaging units. You'd be down sixteen point seven five units. If you blind lee bet the Marlins on the run line. The Nationals would be third. Actually there's a team in between that would be the San Francisco

Giants down fifteen units for blind bedders. On run lines. We'll come back back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Van studios in Las Vegas. I am savvy Z. By the way, we get a lot of tweets at beating the book on my Twitter skill, Alexander. Josh Towers kind enough to join us this morning on the show. Jeff Parls is here as well. Uh, and then all fair before we get into our derivatives, Josh,

you you were making a point. I actually brought this up with you last week because Felix had another bad outing, and I said to you, is Felix herd as a Hall of Famers King? Felix hall of Famer? And we got into it, and the point that I was obviously making was here's a guy that most people would immediately

knee jerk reaction, go, oh, sure, hall of fame. But then if you actually look at his statue, like huh uh okay, And as I said with Felix, if gets the three thousand strike as that he'd have to milk a few more years out of it to get there. That it's not a subject there at his age. I told you at his age, there's things that I feel he can do in the offseason to reset himself and actually be dominant again. And we talked about do. But yeah,

his numbers are closed. He's twenty plus hunter strikeout, so he's really close at three thousand. He's still a decent age. But yeah, I was doing it with with some hitters while you were talking. I was going over some stuff. I was looking at some some hitters from the past because I wanted to see, like I cut, my attention was how many hitters are hitting three D above right now? So I went back twenty years and stuff, and I

wanted to see how many players. So then I got caught up in looking at the Delgado and some other players, and I started comparing them to Hall of famers and Vladi's the name came up, Sor and I looked at his stats, and then I started comparing him to Hilton until Delgado and some other people, and Helton is a cores guy though, Yeah, and they're they're not better than most than a lot of guys that are not in the Hall of Fame or people. So really what I was doing is I wanted it just the No, don't

get the numbers. Just what do you think about, lady grow Oh, he's a Hall of Famer? Is the Hall of Famer because he's in there because you think he is? Oh? No, no, no, he's a Hall of Famer. That would be an initial response for somebody. And then I'll throw another name out there, Degato calls Dogado and then be like uh and then I'm like, well, his numbers are ross the board are better? Oh I didn't know that. Well, it's it's like, it's crazy.

The perception that we put in our head is perception, right, and so so much of that is media driven and we don't realize that that it is at the time. Listen, I'm I'm a Washington Redskins fan, a group in Washington. D c Art Monk, when he retired from the NFL, had the most catches in the history of the National Football League, and for any keen observer of three Super

Bowl championships with the Redskins, he was the key. He was the one steady of that offense all the way through, took him nine years to get in the whole night when he finally got in there in two thousand eight, and I went for We gave him a four minute plus, which is an eternity, by the way, standing ovation right, And it was the way for fans to say, what the what the hell is wrong with that. It's another reason why I said you can never compare generational stats,

that you cannot do it. So my my point is, you know, I was watching so I had a bet on the Mariners last night, Mariners Oakland. And it's actually it's funny you bring us up because it actually came up. At one point the broadcasters are talking about. I don't know how they got on the subject, but so let's do this exercise. Ozzie Smith, Hall of sure Fire, Hall of He's in the Hall of Fame, but sure fine, right in your opinion. I mean, I like watching a play.

The only thing that comes to mind when I think Ozzie is his range in his back flipping. I would have to look at stats to be able to tell you his range and his bad flim and his back flip. So immediately though, but that's the reaction as soon as I say Ozzie Smith. Most people's gut reactions. Oh, sure, of course, basically because Ozzie Smith. He had, by the way, he had one great dramatic playoff home run at home right, um uh, and so on and so forth. And now

let me just throw this outther Omar vis Scale. See I do. When I think of Omar, I think of the best club probably. Ever, how is Omar Viscale not in the Hall of Fame? But Ozzie Smith is correct? The answer to that question Meia, That's what I'm saying. These guys come out and they put somebody up on the TV and they say that this guy's a whole famer, and we all bite and immediately just go, yes he is. But you're right. I I have never compared those two stats, but I bet if I did, to be blown away

the outmaker. He's unbelievable. He's one of the best. Ever. Yes, I just have a question on that, because I'm on record of saying Viscal and Ozzie Smith should not neither of them should be in just because of the hitting aspect of it. Yeah, but that's what I'm talking about,

you know, That's what I was talking about about. Bryce Harper that guy defensively, like if he wasn't in the lineup when you're pitching, you're going in your manager's office and you're cussing him out from giving him a day off because I don't care if he goes I could catcher. I don't care if he goes over for four how valuable he is beyond the plate. That's what you need out there, and that's what you would want. This girl

was the best. Now you've now you've upset Josh. Well, I did that yesterday with my pick, which Josh Josh ended up being correct on anyway, but Josh laughage. So yeah, I had as I had Seattle last night, so just about this baseball game, because I just wanted to had Mackworth state here about baseball. Five years ago you asked me, and I had this conversation with Mark Fortune on here. Five years ago you asked me, what's your favorite sport

to bet on pre flop? And five years ago I would have said baseball and everything else is beyond that. It's baseball and nothing. Baseball is now one of my least favorite sports to bet pre flop, if at all, because there's so many more moving parts right starting pitchers get taken out early. Some teams, for goodness sake, start at a closer right as an opener, and so there's it's harder to model. Anyway, last night was a reminder.

Now I had the Mariners last night, and even in victory, My biggest takeaway from this game last night was even a victory, right, I wanted to hug people who had the a's, and I felt like the high of winning that wasn't nearly as low as the losing must have been. And in the end, I'm like, what was I really betting on there? In the end, the Mariners were down. For First of all, let me just say this as a microcosumo baseball as it is now. There were seventeen

total hits in this game and eleven runs. There were most of those on homeworks. There were seven home runs made in this game, seven home runs eleven total on seventeen total hit seven were home runs. And there were how many strikeouts in this game? A grand total of nineteen strikeouts. So there was nineteen strikeouts and seventeen hits in this game. So again, it's it's what we talked about with baseball. It's either out of the park or it's missing bats and there are no hits anymore. But anyway,

the Mariners were down four to one. I don't know if you saw this, Josh, there were down four to one in the eighth and uh, Trevino, Lee Trevino, not famous golfer Lee Trevino, but Trevino was on the mound for the athletics and relief and and when our incarnacion worked it to a three to count with one man on and one out. So this was a moment in the game where it was like, all right, don't let the tying run to the plate. Uh, this was a huge pitch and Trevino throws a really solid pitch. And

this again, I tell betters this all the time. Don't have confirmation bias. When you win, don't think it's you. And when you lose, um, don't think there was an excuse for it. And in victor to rebe honest about your victories. And so for me, the victory that I ended up getting all hinged on this one pitch ultimately, because Trevino threw a great strike in the lower part of the zone. K zone had it, announcers had it,

everybody had it, and the umpire just looked. This was DJ Rayburn just looked at it and goes, yeah, that's a ball, and Edwin and Edwin internation goes to first base and when you know what, of course, vogel box Jack's you know, a ball into the center field just just deposits it over the center field wall to tie

the game at four. By the way, the A's went up five to four in the tenth and the Mariners again, here was the thing with uh was the closer last night for the for the athletics, it was uh Joaquim Sarria. He was his pitch count was soaring, it was getting in the high thirties, and he just didn't have an out pitch, so he would get ahead O two and then you have no way of getting these guys out.

And finally an amazing sequence there the bottom of the tenth again with with two out, the Mariners were down one, but it was a walk to Vogel back again to out nobody on d Gordon comes in as the pinch hitter, he steals a pinch runner, he's steal second. Then you have Santana doubling on it. You know, after having two strikes against him after an O two he worked the count, doubles down the left field line, game tied, and then narvaiased singles after an O two count to win the game.

But it was just one of these. I guess the reason I pointed out is even in victory, these base but there's so many things going on in these games that to be able to harness these relief pitchers and to think that there was anything in my handicap that led to my victory would be wrong. See that's he

just worked out. I have bet many games this year, and I've been on the right side of games as far as my pocket, and I never like I had the Rockies play the other day and I was saying it on air, the Rockies were the play they end up winning, no way, shape or form. Did I see that game happening like that. It was the complete opposite of what I thought was gonna happen. They just happened to win in the end. It was the way the reason I was giving you the game. No, that wasn't.

It just got lucky because of how bad and how poorly it was played. Those are my rants like things like that, Those are my rants, and I don't just keep to myself when I go on Twitter because I'm watching these games, going this is this can't be happening. This can't be allowed. Why is no one talking to him? Why are we seeing this game in and gay out game out? Why is? Why would a professional baseball player continue to do this? Do they not know better? Have

they not been taught like? This isn't This isn't baseball at an elite level anymore. You see so many different things like that. It's well, it's a crazy game these days. I come from a betting perspective, and again I guess this is the thing with the with betting on sports. These games evolved, and I would argue nothing is evolved quite as dramatically as baseball has, and it's just the tougher sport to harness with at least not it's not a fair word. And like the way that the my

interpretation of evolved, I don't know if it's getting better. No, that's not to prefer devolved. Is that what you prefer? Yeah, regress a grass when everything goes down. Sorry, consult you on my addiction. Let's do can we do? Starting pictures from betting perspective, good and bads thus far this year Q one real quick, and I'd say one thing real quick. I just compared Azzie Smith and no stats. I know, I guess it's not even close. Scale is a thousand

times better baseball Player's right, it's not even close. But and that's if you want to just go offensive and defensively he's amazing. But I guess my point all as as as as sports fans, we do not process, our brains do not process that we are being influenced by media narrative all those years. Right, So it is not by the way, this is not negative about Ozzie Smith. I think he should be in the Hall of Fame. Great player, right, love Ozzie Smith. But how is that not?

How is Omar Viscal not in like, it's ridiculous. And that's why I tell the Art Monk story. It's like, oh, because Art Monk didn't want to talk to the media, so therefore he was not in the Hall of Fame for nine years. That's the only reason. Anyway, So as the backdrop of baseball is that much more difficult to bed, let me now segue into here are some stats that perhaps will help you bets for a baseball And again we started this yesterday the Q one derivative show how

much of this is narrative? How much of this is predictive? That is your task here. So this is from a betting perspective, and again it's a it's a bizarro exercise. If you bet these starting pitchers laying juice, if they were a favorite, betting a unit to win more, if they were a dog, who would be the biggest money winnershed for you thus far this year? Who would be the biggest hemorrhages of money for you? Matt Shoemaker still number one by the way out for the seasons with

the Toronto Blue Jays. That's terrible. But the Blue Jays were five and oh. Basically in mattch Shoemaker starts this year, um, their team win and lost record anyway was five and oh and so he if you bet his starts blindly, you'd be up six point seven three units. By the way, this courtesy of covers. These are fr widely accessible. Jordan Lyles, Andrew Kashner. Now imagine this guy told you if I told you before the season, I was like, hey, Josh, you think Andrew Cashner will be in the top five

money winners? Uh this season? When you say Trevor Williams four and here's a guy that's a very good chance. The answer would have been yes on that if you really think about it, Well, they're dogs, correct. We think about how we thought about the Orioles, right, but you know how I thought about the Orioles that the manager was the problem. You did you always said that, you and so that's another thing you buck show author big

media Darling. You always went you buck that. By the way, Herman Marquez, who's fifth on that list, the Rockies are seven and two in Marquez starts this year. One of my in my baseball season win total manifesto in Point Spread Weekly before this season started, I am under on the Rockies. I may yet be right. So far so good on the Rockies who are sub five hundred. But Marquees I did not expect him to sustain what he was doing second half of last season, and he has absolutely.

They given that contract extension to right, so I believe would have. Well, I think they gave him a decent one. So anyway, there's your top five list, and again, how much of that is predictive? Like if you look at that, Josh, are you do you look at that list? Obviously Shoemaker is not applicable here. I what I see is is Shoemaker on a contract extension, are needing a contract, right, He's on a one year deal. He got left Anaheim, so he had to pitch well, so you can see

him doing well. Uh. Kashner, I've actually been on quite a few times, especially first five, so I've made some money off him because of the adjustments he's made. He's got rid of being cutter happy and he went to being changed up happy with the fastball, so he's setting it up. He's pitching a lot better. The Pittsburgh Pirate boys. They always play well in April, and if you go, we'll go back to history. This staff can flat out pitch and that team always plays better in April and

falls off in May. So I mean, I could honestly make a case for some of these guys preseason. And like I said, with the Kashner thing, knowing what he did and then knowing the price you're gonna get, like I bet on him twice. One early verse of the Yankee he's and I think the one recently was I think it was versus tamp I think it was, and it was at Tampon ended up pulling it out. I've had him twice this year on big money. So, like I said, I can make a baby case. It's not

that surprising to me. But you know how it is. There a lot of the guys are always gonna be dogs. So you win one out of three, one out of four, you're probably making money. Well, that's right, that's why we do these lists, right because and and you'll see that in the reflected in the bottom five. So the bottom five is always gonna be not always, but most of the time is going to be littered with big name pitchers. Why because they're gonna be huge favorites is the exact

converse of what you're just talking about. And when they lose those games, it's a lot to make up for. So Blake snell through, let's be honest, no real fault of his own, uh is the is the big loser for Oh, we did a reverse order, he's the fifth, he's the bottom five, so he's fifth lowest on the list, the three and five when he's when he takes the hill for his squad um. Marcus Stroman the good version of Marcus Stroman this year actually, but hasn't worked out.

The Blue Jays just really inept on offense. The Blue Jays are two and seven in Stroman starts this year, so you'd be down six point five units plus almost six point six units if you bet Stroman games. Finally, then there's Trevor Richards. For goodness sake, poor Trevor Richards. So listen, he plays with the Marlins. They've been a dog. All eight times he's taken the hill, They've lost each and every time. So you'd be down eight units with

Trevor Richards. And then there's sale in Suzer, two of the biggest names in baseball, who are the two biggest hemorrhgers here at the Q. One more Yeah, and this list like says a lot to me. Once again, I've been on the correct side of a lot of these, like I was. I was wrong with Blake Snail to start the season. He lost that game. I bet, but him coming back off the d L recently, I was on the other side because of the situation in which he came back and he hadn't pitched right. So I've

I've done okay with Snail. Stroman. I would never bet because I don't think he's good, and they don't flat out runs per game. They don't score for him. We had it. We bet against him the other day at home, and even though he'd been dealing in April, they just don't score for him. Chris still, he started off on five if you were back in him laying two dollars, and he was on five and he was struggling his loss. He was down. Well, you should probably shouldn't betting anyways,

because you can't just bet somebody for their name. And Max Scherzer was one in seven. So we were betting against Scherzer because they weren't winning for him until his last start in l A And why because max Us was plus money. How many times you get MAXI plus money. I'm gonna take an ace on a night game at Sunday Night Baseball again that he steps up for because of all the attention and who he is and plus money.

So a lot of these guys, man, you can't just you can't just bet these these big dogs at laying two and three all the time. That's idiotic. Like you have to find the right times to bet these guys in order to make money. Like you can't just blindly bet the favorites all the time. And the point of all this, again is is not to say this will always be the case for both the top five and the bottom five. It's just this is what has happened

thus far. Which of these means something moving forward? Which doesn't? And I would argue, uh, look, you're always gonna have big names on you, Flip Cashner's I've been three to three and five. He probably still plus money. Yeah. Still the Orioles though, Josh, And that's a tough band. No, it's not a good team. I get a yeah, And

that's what I'm saying. If you have took their manager out last year and brought with this manager in Brandon Hayden last year with that same team before they traded him, do you realize how good that team is? Like all those I mean, there's some really good baseball players. They Let me just add this about the Orioles though. Before the season started, we we talked about their first fifty five games and how tough their schedule was. And I sat here and I said, I believe. I said, I go,

if they go fifteen and forty. If I gave you the over under fifteen and forty, what would you say? And everybody shouted me down and said, oh, you'd have to make the line ten. Uh. They're fourteen and twenty six, which is not good at baseball, but it's a lot better than any of us thought they'd be at this point. Orioles still with the worst run differential though, and all of baseball. No check that. The Marlins still worse, the worst in the American League, minus seventy five, the Marlins

at minus ninety one in the Nationally. We'll come back. We'll do umpires. That's for totals betters and for side betters as well when an umpire gets assigned, but primarily for totals betters. And we'll bring in Mark Borcher because he has a historical umpire database. We'll go through that on the Q one MLB Derivative Show here on a Tuesday, right here on Visa. Now back to a Numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa

in studios in Laws, Vegas. Back on the Numbers Game here at Visa and sort of lazy Tuesday here as the NBA Playoffs resumes tonight. Let's talk umpire, shall we, Josh, Let's talk umpires. Yeah, let's talk those guys. All right, umpires your favorite thing. Well, I'm curious for your perspective though, here Josh, because and let's bring in Mark Borcher from Clear Data Sports, who has a umpire database. Nobody likes umpires.

Uh this, I'm quite fond of them. Uh. These are the top five over reliable umpires again this Q one, Uh so again this will be perhaps more meaningful Q two certainly maybe Q three again Q one. It's a little little jan kie because it's like, okay, what does this mean anything? But here are your top five over umpires. Wolf's not on these lists, and we don't need to talk about umpires because he's the US in the game.

All right. Let me just point out that that Victor Kara Pazza and Corey Blazer respectively, four games then when when they were behind home plate, all went over for Victor Karapasa, three games behind home plate, all went over for Corey Blazer. But those are really small sample sizes. Let's just jack it up a little bit. Here are your top five over umpires. Chad whitson seven of the eight games in which he's been calling balls and strikes have gone over the total but betting total. And then

Paul Emil, who's a familiar name. Alan Porter, six out of seven games that they've been behind home plate have gone over Jeff, Jeff Kellogg and the aforementioned DJ Rayber. He made sure of it last night. He absolutely did. Uh. That is timely information right there. Five out of six, or would have been yesterday anyway, five out of six have gone over uh thus far this year when those guys have been calling balls and strikes. Bringing Mark Bortser

from Clear Data Sports. He's, by the way, courtesy of covers dot Com as well Mark. Any of those names, uh, Kara Pasa, Blazer, Witson, Emil Porter, Kellogger Rayber and any

historical consistency there with those guys. Yeah, And just to kind of give you the methodology, just real briefly, it's a four year weighted average and strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and groundball percentage, and that that gives you, uh an expected to earned run average for the umpire So Alan Porter and Paul Emil or in the top I would say twelve. But one thing I wanted to ask Josh because I think I heard him talking about this guy is Alfonso Marquez. Was that was that guy in nemesis

for a picture. No, not Alfonso, who was the guy that you were talking about that. It's the one who has the lawsuit against MLB um Angel Hernandez, Angel Hernandez. He's the one that he intentionally factors in. He makes it about him. He's the He's the umpire that every player I have yet to meet a player that likes him. We all pay to see Angel hernandas well. Yeah, think that's exactly. He's Alfonso Marquez actually a really good dude. So Emmelyn Porter, So Emlyn Porter your two days because

I thinks that's huge. It's not just this year. These guys are consistently over over over umpires over time. So sites like stat Fox they will have umpire assignments. So when you are handicapping your games, particularly on totals, note that when emmil and Porter are calling balls and strikes, how about the opposite here, Mark, Let's do the top five under umpires thus far this year, Rob Drake, six out of seven behind own plate have gone under, Chris Siegel,

and Andy Fletcher and Mike Esterbrook. Oh there's Mike Esterbrook. Mark, we we know that name. Four out of five have gone under and there's dan Iya Sonja also a guy that we've talked about through the years. You and me Mark on on the Beating of the Book podcast six out of eight under our esterbrook Sonia always under guys

or is this a departure? So their component their components stats are indicate that they go to the under there in the top can of under opp fires and then Marley and and the other guy asked the Brook eat numbers three. As far as our you know, advance ratings for for umpires who who you know, the component rates would would suggest that it would go under. Okay, so Esther Brooke and I Sonia consistent under guys because you

know Drake siegelan fletcher who knows. Maybe that's just naberration here in a small sample size, but here's what we know again on the overside, Emily and Porter are the names you need to focus on st the Brook and I Sonia the names you need to focus on on the underside. And that is some key betting information again for not only totals betters, also side betters as well, but in this case um primarily the totals side of things.

Thank you, Mark, I appreciate the database man. Thank you for that my pleasure, gil Mark Mark Clear Data Sports. Oh we cut off Mark like I like guys on the right. Deanders is a good umpires. Those are good umpires. So true about DJ Rayburn, though he made sure that game went over. That's That's another thing about last night's game. The under betters went to die on that pitch, like Nope, that's not right, by the way. The other thing. And then when I faced the same hitter over and over again,

I better make an adjustment. You know that are gonna make a justice back. I can't pitch to them in the exact same way I face you a hundred times ago. I better make some adjustments. When I watched Vogel box swing, I don't think that I have to make an adjustment. I don't see a guy that's gonna set me up very much. And he's a pretty big dude, so his swing is pretty limited. He's an extension guy. I would be pounding him in over and over again, like every

day I go over the scarring report. Let's say every four days we go to the scary report. You're gonna go. You can get vocal back in, you can get Vogel back in. That's not really gonna change over the course of his season. Like, he's the one guy that I think I would stay hard in majority of the time when I would go away, I would throw something so so off the plate away that I got him to cheat to look. But then I would come back hard in Like the pitch that he hit over the wall.

That's the one pitch I would stay away from, something out over that he can get extended on. That's his bread and butter um. And again, not to just focus on this one Athletics Mariners game, but the last thing about this because the reason I am is because it represented so much about the sport of baseball, represented so much about betting baseball last night, the vagaries of it, and so much of what you just scream about as a guy who's like a get off my law and

baseball guy. Loriano's homer in the top of the tenth that at the time put the Athletics up five to four was something that would have driven you crazy because it was so clear that all he was doing was sitting on a breaking ball and and just Brennan was just like, Okay, here's your breaking ball, and he just launched it in the left fields and it was just he would have I thought about you. I was like, if Josh is washing, this is losing his mind. At

this point. We'll come back. Thank you to our bortcher for the umpires there. We'll come back. We'll do the much more interesting stuff for betters. We'll do first five inning stats and then we'll get into some proprietary first sitting stats for first inning bettors as well. Is the Q one MLB Derivatives episode Here on a numbers game at Visa now live from the Vision Studios in the

South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is our number two of the numbers game right here had Visa, the VEG Stats and Information Network, serious XP, Channel two four, Visa dot Com, the Vista app, Fubo TV, Slink TV, Game Plus throughout Canada, New York City. We appreciate everybody listening. Josh Towers kind enough to join us on this Tuesday for our Q one MLB Derivative show Pulse spor be

joining us for fan graphs later on. He'll have your DFS plays of the day and who knows producing number five. Jeff Parls might have a baseball pick later on in the show. By the way, Borcher with the Umpire database. Very kind of him to join, even though he's on the ten D d L right now. For the picks segment, he went out of winner under the DL he gotta win, and then he bounced and then he went on the end and then I had a comment and then where I like, you you have an injury. He's like, what

are you talking about. I was like, no, no, you have an injury. UM. We love Mark borcherd by the way, um, and we appreciate that umpire database because that is that is gold right there. That is solid betting stuff right there. So let's move on. Let's go to the uh first five innings here and years ago, so this is about seven or eight years ago. I ran it to Tom Federico over there a team rankings and he had baseball stats and I and I said, this is before first

five bets were that mainstream. And I said to him, I go, you know you have on your website all this great inning by inning data, you know, betters bet the first five innings. Can you cull that together and put those out? And he was like, oh, he wasn't necessarily aware of at the times like sure, and so they did it there. By the way, now you have guys at team rankings who try to like troll us about saying tight rims in college basketball games, which is

another hilarious side of that. UM, keep doing that, by the way, So MLB team first five innings runs per game. This is courtesy of the good folks over at team Rankings, Tom Federico's operation over there. Seattle Mariners thus far this year, again through again as the teams round the game bend here Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers three point four or five runs on offense per first five thus far this year, the Twinkies right behind them at three point

four two, and then the Brewers and the Cubs. Uh thereafter. No real surprises there, although I guess the Mariners are the one. Would you say, Josh, that you would expect to slough off that list? Perhaps? I bet if you cut the first quarter and a half and you go first twenty games, second twenty games, I bet it would be a huge discrepancy in that number. Think you might be right, but I think the Twins in the in the Cubs, I bet that there's a consistency there. Red

Sox Cardinals, Dodgers right after that. Top five by the way, so usual suspects. If you go to bottom five, Marlins are the worst one point four six runs per first five minutes. Now imagine, so this is also part of I would like to say this. If you're betting the Miami Marlins, let's say your model spits out, Oh the Marlins, there's value on the Marlins here first five. Um imagine that you have to live through that experience where they're only scoring one point four six runs per first five

thus far this year. That is a just in addition to probably being a losing bet, it's just an ugly experience as a human being. Giants one point seven, Padres one point eight. By the way, these are all real bad Blue Jays one point two and Tigers one point eight seven. You don't usually in all my years doing this, you don't usually have five teams there at the bottom that are sub two runs per first five. Usually is

a couple of teams. But that's that's bad. The game has has changed to the point where not every not all three teams can compete for a World Series. There there's such a discrepancy and good teams and teams that can't compete anymore. That this is has turned into the norm. And when we talked about it briefly about how bad hitting has has gotten over the last twenty years. You know, ten thousand, nine hundred more strikeouts last year compared to

oh five. It's crazy what we've seen the change in offense. And so this is becoming the normal. Unfortunately, the four teams, the Marlins, the Giants, the Blue Jays, the Tigers, we knew they were going to be bad. But that's not a surprise. Well that was my question, is it you say that flippantly? Now, that's not a surprise at all.

But would you have said the Padres would be at one Monday the Padres, I would not have said, Okay, that's when they're still a good team, which tells you how great their pitching staff is as far as records are concerned. Um, that actually shocks me that they're only at one point eight. But that goes into their ballpark a little bit, I'm sure, and they're twenty two and nineteen, three games above four games back, three games above five, at one point eight per five innings, so that that

pitches top is doing a fantastic job. But I thought that they would score a little bit more. That is Petko. I'd have to check ballpark faticals. Just Petco still as big of a pitcher's park as it once was. I'm not sure. Numbers wise, I don't know, but going in there, the perception when you're pitching, you can't wait to pitch there. Blue Jays one eight two, They're a tough watch offensively,

It's not um of those teams that moving forward. As you look at that at that both top five and bottom five, and you say to yourself, all right, that's all narrative. That's what's happened so far. What is the team reliably that you think will be consistent moving forward. I mean, I look at that Rangers team and I'm like, yeah, they can drop. You know. Look, the Rangers had a couple of games there where they scored a ton of runs, and I can't remember how many of those were waited

to the first five. But the Rangers always explosive offensively. The Twins, who may be the best story in baseball by some measure thus far this year, um so I think there's some that's that's what the inconstituencies of not having Nelson Cruz because he's been doing out of the lineup. But you're talking about the top five, the Rangers, I'm sorry, the Mariners will fall off because of home run can there?

They rely so heavily on the home run and the type of team they are with how many errors they make. I think they legal league and errors and strikeouts as well. Um, the Mariners will taper down those other four teams in my opinion, they'll stay pretty consistent right there with those runs. On the flip side to the bottom five, I can see the pladres changing slightly. The other four teams, nothing's

going to change with their offense. Petko by the way, twenty six and ballpark factors, so yes, there is something to to that. By the way, right after that top five, the Indians there, they're so bad, the Orioles so bad. No surprises. Um. So that's courtesy of team rankings. Again, thank you to the team rankings folks. Uh. That is the average runs scored per first five thus far this year. When we get into actual now wins and losses first five.

This is from Joe Osborne. Is that correct? Jeff Okay? Uh? So, Joe Osborne, the shout out to him for providing these is the first five. We usually go to my my boys at onside sports. We'll get to their onside sports, and in Q two we'll get to their splits on these and it gets a little deeper. But this uh courtesy first five innings record here, Um, the Rays four,

twelve and three. These are for again if you went through the Bizarro exercise of betting these teams blindly first five each and every game thus far this year, it is the Raise and the Twins, who I think are the two most uh, the two big surprises to the good in baseball this year thus far, rave and three Twinkies twelve and four. And then you have the Phillies, the Cardinals and the Dodgers. Um, no real huge surprise. I guess they're um rounding up the top five first

five and you go to the bottom five. Now this is always interesting. So the Marlins are the worst. The Marlins are the worst period right there? Not twenty three and seven, the Rockies eleven, twenty one and eight. Now, this was my point when I did the under on the Rockies. I just don't trust that starting staff well, right, because last year the starting staff was amazing and the bullpen couldn't. They were the worst ever this year. The

starting staff it's atrocious, and the bullpen is awesome. Well, they had some bullpen parts last year. They had outo Vino last year, but they still struggle as a whole. They were like average, like e r A. Wise, they were like the worst. They blew a lot of games. It's they flipped between starting and relieving from last year this year. But that was my point that the Rocky starting pitcher, and I was I was wrong about Marquez, but I thought the rotation up and down was not sustainable.

And so you can see this now through the first five inning betting stats. Rockies eleven, twenty one, and eight. If you bet them first five blindly, and by the way, if you're doing that, something's wrong with you. Giants eleven, twenty three and six's Giants Marlins all on every list. Jay's how about the Nationals though, right, Nationals thirteen and seventeen. So that's got to be somewhat surprised. First five, That's what I'm saying. So first five you're talking about, well,

this is the limit. Has been good, sure, there's not been bad, has been good. So you have like Sanchez and whoever else has been that bad. So think about that, Jeff. They just had a weekend, a four game series in l A where Corbin won in the first five, Animal Sanchez got crushed in the first Max lost, Max lost, and Strasburg lost. Well, part of that was what we were just talking about. With how many runs they're producing

first five. We only flashed up the top five, but if you extended that to the top ten, Washington's in it. They only swore two point to seven runs per first five thus far this year. That informs a lot of it. By the way, we didn't put up the first five allowed UM also courtesy of team rankings. This is first five allowed the Reds, your Cincinnati Reds, Josh, they can pitch man one point six six runs allowed, they can

first five. So they're like basically UM pitching against the Giants offense first five, as are the Rays basically each it every time out thus far this year. Raise one point six second. If you take away the blown saves by Glaciers. And I'm not putting this all on a Glaciers but because their offense isn't very good. But if you take away the blown saves, let's just say he has a he's having a great start to blows one save on the season. Great start there in first place. Yeah,

their offense is tough to watch. UM Dodgers one point nine three, Yankees two twins two point one. Certainly no surprise with the Dodgers necessarily or the Yankees. UM bottom five is allowed runs allowed per first five the White Sox because this is first five innings runs alloud. All the talk about the Yankees and their starting staff isn't very good and we don't trust the starting staff and c C and happens, right, and look how good they look,

how good they are. And by the way, this is with a you know, injury riddled Yankees version right for most of the Q one, Um, they're gonna be just fine the rest of the way. White Socks are the worst defenders in terms of giving up runs first five Orioles, Rangers, Angels, Mariners all north of three runs per first Keep that list out real quick. I just want to go to errors in baseball. The Mariners are leading all the baseball in forty five thirty nine errors. There on that list.

The White Sox second most errors thirty five. Are they on that list? Yep? They're the worst. They're the worst three point four runs allowed per first five awesome Orioles, Rangers, Angels, and and then you make a good point though, that's the that's the part of this equation. We we immediately gravitate towards the pitching. But there's there's flies in the ointment, and flies in the ointment is your defense. And if your defense is letting you down, well yeah, because those

aren't urn runs. Those are just run. Those are just runs. That's right, those aren't urn runs. Those are just runs. We'll be back, we'll talk first first inning wagers. So again with all of this stuff, the point is, all right, that's what's happened. Uh, it's interesting. But if I'm handicapping a game tonight or tomorrow night, can you put that up like gils talking? Can you apply this moving forward?

And my answer to you would be um, sometimes yes, most of the time's probably not especially Q one here. Most of this A lot of this could just be aberrations here in a forty game sample size. There are there are some things in there, though, again the Yankees being one of them, the red starting staff. That that's some information that I think you can use moving forward. But it feel real quick, that top five least runs allowed, So four of the five are top ten in defense.

There you go. The only one that's not is the Yankees. Is the Yankees, and yet look at the Yankees overcoming that. All right, we'll do first innings as well, and these get into sort of proprietary stats now that you won't find anywhere else. We'll go through uh team rankings, will give us the first inning score percentages and score percentages allowed.

But then I'll go into the database and give you the on base percentage allowed by starting pitchers thus far this year, in just the first inning, will do a minimum Q one here of thirty plate appearances faced. This is interesting coming up on a numbers game Q one MLB derivatives right here, visa back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our VS in studios in Las Vegas. I should point out that

Josh Tower is in my producer number five. Jeff Parl's almost went two blows here in the break over a. But if you hear the argument, it doesn't make sense. We're we're we're on the opposite side to the spectrum on the on the great defensive shortstops. One in the Hall of Fame. One not in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about Viscale and Ozzie Smith again. But you're what you're saying is defensive means absolutely nothing I'm saying.

You're saying it defense is irrelevant when you're talking about getting into the Hall of Fame, So you might as well put like, I don't even know there's some hitters that are so bad, but so every d h should be in the Hall of Fame. I'm gonna say six words that didn't often say on this show. I'm with Josh on this one. That's funny. Yah, Josh is right, because you're saying then it's just so you don't believe the scale or Ozzie should be in the Hall of Fame.

That just means that you're emphasizing one side of the game. And all those guys aren't even in lineups for their offense, right, Like that has nothing to do with them even playing the spade baseball, you know. And Omar Viscale is unassailably he should be in the Hall of Fame. If ozz he's in, I mean he's only he's only a couple of hundred below three thousand hits. But the Jeff Parl's Offensive Baseball Hall of Fame does not include busts or

those two guys. There's there's Cooper's down and then there's Jeff's. But that's there they two were talking about. You're talking about a leadoff guy in a second hold hitter. You're not talking about power guys, like not everybody hit the ball over the fence. That's not that's not I mean, because if we're doing that, I understand that. But would you count what would you say those guys are average?

Were they offensive liabilities? Would you count those guys? And I know and I know Viscale had almost over They both became better hitters as their career progressed, but they were awful hitters early for sure, for sure, but they were just absolute outmakers, right, they were vacuums. That's part of the sport of baseball. And again, my only point is this, if Ozzy's in the scale has to be in.

All this stuff is subjective. Listen, I made the Art Monk argument, like how Art Monk had to wait nine years as a centerpiece for three Super Bowl champions and had led the NFL in the most catches at the time of his at the time of his retirement. But Lynn Swan, who everybody immediately would say, of course, Lynn Swans in the hallway. By the way, everybody in Pittsburgh's hating me right now for breathing this up. But Lynn Swan caught three hundred and however many balls. That's all

he caught in his entire NFL career. But he had iconic catches in Super Bowls, right, made in two seasons. It was a different it was a different understand, it was a different game. Let me just point that out. But still, but he's and no one questions it is.

Of course he's in because he's Lynn Swan. And I'm just saying the subjectivity of these kinds of things that you know, you can talk days about it well, And that's That's another one that I'm not going to bring up on air that we talked about off the air, that that Josh and I could probably talk about for I want to ask you a question on those how many home runs do you think Buster Posey's and Yadia I'm reallyna have I guess we just brought it in. I know for a fact that Yadio Molinda does not have,

does not have a lot. How many good Buster Posey has in his career, I'd probably a similar number to Molina correct, give or take, give or take, give take twenty home runs, right, what do you think the number is? Do you know the number? I don't know the number off the top of my head. Under two hundred career homers. So we're talking about on basse plus slugging, and you're talking about two guys that are two of the best

of what they do defensively are amazing. Three World Series for Buster forced onlen base attempts this year, no one runs on Yaddi. He calls a fantastic game rule change forced by Buster Posey on an injury. I think both of those guys are Hall of famers. So that's where I'm kind of contradictory all over the place. Here you're talking about hits for Bose, You like he doesn't even have half of them. As hell, here's the thing, how much do you do you put in the postseason success?

Suppose zero? Zero? Postseason means nothing to me when you're talking about the Hall of Fame, because not everybody gets to go to the Hall of Fame. I mean the postseason but that's a team sport to my game, plut my point of subjectivity. That matters to some voters, right yeah, and it matters nothing to me because you don't there's no guarantees that you're going to the postseason, but does guarantee you're playing in And we're comparing your three thousand hits.

That's what you did in the regular season. That's not what you did in the postseason. You may never have went to the postseason. I may have win every year because I was in the right place. I got a World Series ring because I happened to sign with the right team at the right time. Had nothing to do with me, so that I get credit for that, that's ridiculous. You slip that in there, Jenn nicely. The postseason means

absolutely nothing when we're talking about Hall of Fame. Well, some people would disagree with you, but yes, we will bring the last possible. By the way, people landing on the show for the first time, I'm like, God, I only talks about his base. It's like, this is the first day where we've gone all baseball that on this Let's do first innings for betters because first inning wagers or something that I've talked about on the Beating of the Book podcast on on a numbers game now for years.

They just started offering first inning wager wagers here at the South Point, and now everybody is talking about him. But there is a very uh systematic way that we bet first innings. I don't necessarily talk about it on air, but let's talk about the stats thus far. This is provided from our good friends over team rankings. Once again, this is first inning scoring percentages, so the percentage of games thus far this year where this team's offense has

played a run or more. No surprise, Josh, who would be number one on this list? Correct? Say the question again? Sorry Josh, to interrupt you. First inning scoring percentage, it's the race, so more than one in two games, right, more than half the time. The Rays offenses playing a run in the first inning has discussed often on this network. Everybody going crazy about the Rays first inning, yeses um, but the Rays offense has had a lot to do with that. By the way, it drops after the race.

It drops all the way to for second bet, which is the Yankees. Uh, and then Atlanta the Braves played a run thirty nine point zero two percent of the time and first dates thus far this year. But clearly it's the raise, just the outlier here in Q one. Now, I would argue, right, we're talking about what of this is narrative and one of this is predictive? To me, this is not predictive, right, No team is going to

sustain that over the course of an MLB season. So just file that away and you can get back to me on that um. By the way, the opposite of that again, courtesy of team rankings, who is scoring runs the least percentage wise their offense, that is playing a runner more in the first sitting, the San Francisco Giants, Ready for this, Josh, one out of every ten games scoring the first of the time they scored the first. Chase that around find the right picture for them. You

chase that around crazy. That might be a little more predictive, but it's not gonna be that low. They'll get better than that. No, it's not gonna get that much better. I don't think Giants ten percent. By the way, Marlin's usual suspects fifteen point three eight percent of the time we talked about how they barely scored both of these teams in the first five let alone the first inning itself, so that makes sense. The Cardinals, uh, seventeen point zero

seven percent of the time in the first stating. That's a little weird, but you know, Carps that well haven't made too many adjustments first sitting, so it's strange, little microcosum right of a game. I retie on that list. Pirates are, yeah, their seventh best, So it goes raised scoring a lot. That's scoring a lot in the first stitting. It's because Melkie's hitting so good this year? Was he

about in second? He's hitting You know, me and my buddy Mark Meltzer like cell through watching uh Melkie yesterday, We're like, wow, Melkie still playing. He's top ten average. I think Milkie is still playing after all these years. By the way, the opposite of this, now this is first inning opponents score percentage. So the best at run prevention in the first sitting, we're talking on a team basis. It is the Minnesota Twins, whose opponents have only school

word of the time in the first inning. Pittsburgh zero five percent, Chicago Cubs twenty one point zero five percent. Those are the best three in terms of run prevention. The worst, now, this is the double whammy for the Giants because we just talked about how the Giants were the worst in the first inning. They only score one

out of every ten games in the first inning. They are the worst team in baseball when it comes to first inning run prevention because their opponents score forty two point five percent of the time in the first in It's so funny because when Tampa went in there and played them the first inning, was they destroyed. It was just it was unbelievable. Um Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins again usual suspects versities. By the way, it was in six the Nationals, which is again that sort of weird

thing with the Nationals. They've allowed to run in the first innings thus far this year thirty five percent of the time. They're six worst than that. But the Giants the Kniella of bad to use the old hi all I betting turn the they are, uh, they are a first sitting disaster thus far. Today is the first inting. So so now here's the thing. Three dollars. Now, I

just want to point this out. I do not bet first innings this way, but I am providing this information for you because people love to hear these kind of sets of like, oh, the Giants, they're they're worst on offense and first intings, their worst in pitching and first innings. It's actually not how I bet first sittings, but it is interesting information. Thank you to Team Rankings for that stuff.

Now now for the proprietary pitching stuff. Um so I'm I go through and this is again it's a little different Q one, especially with starting pictures because obviously they're on a rotation. So I made a minimum here of thirty plate appearances faced here Q one of the Major

League Baseball season. But these are the pictures who have allowed the highest and just for giggles, I went with on base percentage as the opposing stat These are the pictures that have allowed the highest and the lowest on base percentage that's in the first inning of own thus far this year. Any idea, who the worst offender in first innings thus far this year is of starting pitchers, the guy who is just a gas can in the first frame. I gotta feeling it's not gonna surprise me.

I have to check to see if this is even true. Freddy Peralta, well, yeah, we bet against him again last night. He's been getting absolutely well, he's not ready for the big leagues. And the one game that he did pitch well, by the way, they had a they had an opener pitch to first and then he came in afterwards, which was not last night. It was the outing before and then last night it was the same thing. Uh, he's

guiding the ball, he's not fining. I watched him pitch last night and he was like almost hoping it to go to a location and not. It was really, he's not ready. Yeah. I didn't by the way, when I said I I gotta check to see if this is true, I didn't mean to check that if Freddy Peralta is true, I mean to see, like his stats are so bad

that I have to check. I guess they are. Freddy Peralta of the of the Milwaukee Brewers, which to give you the number in first innings this year he's given up and this is just thirty three at bats against him, not so minimum thirty plate appearances, but thirty three official at bats. He's given up um four homers the opposing Here's here's the better stat on this. The opposing batting average on first innings against Peralta thus far this year

is four fifty five. That's their batting average. I'm gonna show you something real quick. This is just the way I see it, So last, hold on, hold on, let me finish on base percentage against five thirty eight, five thirty eight, Josh his whips one point six three slugo eight seventy nine. I'm sorry, go ahead. Well, last night he went four innings and he gave up two runs

versus the Phillies. The game before was the game he came out of the bullpenny pitch five innings that gave up nothing, but he didn't pitch in the first inning, right, So before that four innings, nine runs versus the Rockies three and a third, three runs, three and a third seven runs, one good game and three innings four runs. So he's giving up a mass amount of runs early in his ours and he's not going to deep and they're trying to get something out of him, but they can't.

So now they're trying to figure out how to find success for this kid. And honestly, sometimes you just rushed them to the big leagues too early. And I think this might be a case with him second worst pitcher thus far this year in first innings and this is a live looking now to the San Francisco Giants talks with Derrick Collins once again, Derek, you have an injury. No, I don't, Derek knows, seriously, you have an injury. You're going on the Tende deal. No, seriously, I don't. Yeah,

you are. Derrek Collin then goes to the media and says, I have a fake injury. Everybody, the Giants are gaming the game, Derrek Collin. First innings. This might have a lot to do with the why the Giants were like, you have an injury, Derek. Derrek hollind just behind Freddie Peralta. Opposing batters four seventy one on base percentage first innings against Derrik Collin. Trevor Richards, who we brought up as one of the biggest hemorrhagers of money of all US

starting pitchers thus far this year. Eight starts with the Marlins. The Marlins are O and eight. In those starts, he's down eight units because they were dog and all of them, well, he's not helping himself. In the first innings. Opposing batters four thirty nine on base percentage first innings. You know who's fourth. Corey Kluber. Yeah, Corey Cluber, who obviously uh is now not pitching because of the line drive that fractured his arm. But Corey Kluber terrible start this year

and started games was bad. Four thirty two opposing on base average against Clueber first innings thus far this year. So Peralta, who is not only the highest in on base average, but he's also the highest and slugging percentage batting average Homer's Ribby's posing teams have fifteen RBIs against which his first innings alone. Um, that's Peralta, Holland, Richards, and Cluber. Again, just some names to remember as you

handicapped baseball slatesia every day. That explains his when he gave up the home run last night, the two on the homer that tied the game. That explains why he reacted the way he did. Peralta. Yeah, I'm just picturing what he did and stuff, and she's just had it. Here's here's the flip side of the Actually, no, that was Jeffreys. I take that back, Jeffrey Jeffries home run.

Here's the flip side of that. These are starting pitchers, minimum thirty plate appearances faced first innings thus far this year. These a proprietary here on a numbers game at Visa. Cole Hamile's our old friend, Cole Hamiles, best first inning pitcher thus far in baseball this year. Opponent's opponents slash line against Cole Hamile's just first innings alone zero seventy seven batting average, one seventy two, on base slugging percentage eight k's three walks. He's just been great in the

first innings. Harmon Marquez, who we brought up earlier for the Rockies. Everything he did the last stretch of last season, he has just carried over first innings. He's the second best pitcher in baseball in terms of not necessarily again with with the betting step, but we're talking about just his raw stats. On base average allowed first innings Marquees second to Cole Hamiles one seventy two. Mart Marquez just at allowing a one eight eight on base against first innings.

Chris Sale. For all of his troubles Josh Chris Sale at one four in the first innings against, so first innings have not been his issue. And you know who he's tied with an on base average against Ryan Stannic of the Rays. Well, who's giving up runs? I think once and ten outings or something. Yeah? Who? Of course is a a relief picture that is being used as an opener. Right, So that so now I know you hated this last year, but can you give the race some dap that this like makes sense for them on

some level? Then? Yeah, but you saw what happened when Blake's now got hurt, right, They didn't have enough starting rotation. Um, so they went into a skin when winning games. They started to lose when Blake went out because they didn't have enough starters to do their jobs. So on one hand, yeah, it works when they have the right and the right amount and the right starting pictures, but when they lose somebody,

it puts them in a very bad position. Let me just give them the best list to get at Hamil's Marquees Sale, Stanic Flarity, Snell Strasburg, Robbie Ray. The analytics folk love Robbie Ray, who might be the good version of Robbie Ray this year. Those are the best first inning in terms of all based average lot So again, um, those are just some It's just food for thought from a team perspective and also from a starting picture perspective on what they give up, what they prevent, what they

don't prevent. In terms of first innings, if you're betting first innings, not necessarily how I bet them, but a lot of folks like to bet them this way. What is sustainable? What is not? The rays are not. Ladies and gentlemen, just telling you that right now,