>> HR McMaster: America and other free and open societies face crucial challenges and opportunities abroad that affect security and prosperity at home. This is a series of conversations with guests who bring deep understanding of today's battlegrounds and creative ideas about how to compete, overcome challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and secure a better future. I am HR McMaster. This is Battlegrounds. [MUSIC] >> Narrator: On today's episode of Battlegrounds, our focus is on Türkiye.
Our guest is Bilal Bilici, a member of the Grand national assembly of Türkiye representing the province of Adana and a former member of the foreign policy committee. Mr. Bilici began his political career in the Good Party, serving as an advisor to the party chair. He was Good Party's representative to the United States before transitioning to the main opposition Republicans People party in 2024. In addition to his political career, Bilici has been influential in Turkish business.
He has held leadership roles in the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Türkiye, including as Vice President of the Türkiye Central American and Caribbean Business Council, and has served as Honorary Consul of Guatemala in Istanbul. Mr. Bilici earned an undergraduate degree in Economics from Boston University and a master's degree in Global affairs from Bakchikshahir University.
Turkiye's modern identity was forged in the aftermath of World War I when Mustafa Kamel Ataturk led the War of Independence, abolished the Ottoman sultanate and established the Republic in 1923. Ataturk's sweeping reforms reshaped the country through secularism, nationalism, and modernization. Turkiye joined NATO in 1952, establishing its position as a strategic Western ally.
While it has pursued closer ties with Europe, including an ongoing bid for EU membership, Türkiye remains deeply involved in Middle Eastern and Asian affairs. It absorbed around 4 million refugees at the height of the Syrian civil war and backed the rebel groups that overthrew the Assad regime. Türkiye has also faced cross border nationalist movements led by Kurds, who comprise nearly 20% of the Turkish population and have long called for increased political and cultural Autonomy.
Since the 1980s, the Kurdistan Workers Party, a US designated terrorist organization, has conducted terror attacks in Türkiye, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of people. The group recently declared a ceasefire after a call by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan to disarm. Türkiye's relationship with the United States has been marked by cooperation and friction.
Türkiye has contributed to key NATO operations and played a critical role in counterterrorism efforts, including the fight against ISIS. However, tensions persist over Türkiye's purchase of Russian S400 missile defense systems. US support for Kurdish troops in Syria, Turkish support for Islamic organizations, including the new government in Syria and international concerns over how leader of the justice and Development Party, AKP.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as prime minister of Türkiye from 2003 to 2014 and has been the president since 2014, has consolidated power, stifled opposition and gained preponderant influence over institutions spanning education, the judiciary and the media. However, there are signs of change in Turkish politics. CHP Chair Oscar Ozel, who assumed office in November 2023, is energizing young Turkish opposition politicians.
In the 2024 municipal elections, the CHP won 35 of 81 municipalities, up 14 from 2019. Incumbent Istanbul Mayor and CHP member Akram Imamulu defeated the AKP candidate by a 10 point margin in the 2024 elections and overall four consecutive victories against the AKP. On March 19, 2025, just days before the CHP was to name Imamolu its presidential candidate, a Turkish court sent him to jail on alleged charges of corruption.
We welcome Bilal Bilici to discuss Türkiye's evolving role on the global stage, its political and economic landscape, its central role in the volatile Black Sea and Middle East regions, and its future in NATO. [MUSIC] >> HR McMaster: Bilal Bilici, welcome to Battlegrounds. Fantastic to have you here at such a critical moment, right for the, for the United States, for Türkiye and the world. Welcome to Battlegrounds. >> Bilal Bilici: Hi HR, it's great to be with you today.
>> HR McMaster: Hey, too bad we're not doing this at the Stanford campus. It was great to see you there recently and I hope to see you again in person soon. But there's so much to talk about, so let's just jump right into this. All of us have been watching this, this arrest of Mayor Imamulu, the very popular mayor of Istanbul about to be named as your party's candidate in the upcoming election. Can you share an overview with our viewers of what happened on March 19?
He had his degree revoked before that. It seems to me like President Erdoğan doesn't want to have competition in the upcoming election. >> Bilal Bilici: Well, just to give you a basic overview, Mayor Ekrem Imamolu has been the only challenger to the current President because he is the man of people with charisma and people skills. And in person, he's a democratic person who, who heartfully prioritizes service to the Turkish society.
He practices democratic values and he has a mindset of giving the best service to the Turkish people. Throughout his political career he demonstrated that and he also shows this in his day-to-day life. So if I could elaborate what he done briefly is that, throughout his political track record, he's the only person who won four elections, four consecutive elections against AKP, and there has been an annual election in 2019.
But what he did, I think these also rang alarm bells for AKP and perhaps hit a nerve. What he done as a mayor is that he opened preschool kindergartens that would provide free or discounted kindergarten to the underprivileged kids for example. Besides that, he created municipality owned and managed restaurants that an individual would pay only a dollar or $2 because the inflation so high.
Recession is so bad in Türkiye that people especially, you see the retirees, elderly as well as university students standing in the lines to buy a bread or to buy minced meat. So we have been witnessing this and his social services to the people you know hit a nerve as I said. Besides that he has given scholarships to to young girls and so far there have been around 100,000 recipients to these scholarships. He opened.
Opened up dormitories and provided free housing, discounted housing to the underprivileged students, in particular to the girls. And these were a great demonstration of his services. I mean, the list can go on. He also created a mobile app called Istanbul Yours, this mobile app, you just downloaded on your iPhone or smartphone. And then it's free of charge.
So you could find out many, many things on the app, whether it's connecting every free wi fi of the Istanbul municipality, whether it is its cultural center or historical centers or buildings or subway stations, access to sports facilities, or if you are seeking a job, and many other things that have been provided inside this platform.
And there have been also a card for moms that are given to mothers who have children between the ages of 0 to 4 so that they will be using public transportation in Istanbul for free. And 750,000 people so far use this. I mean, he done these social programs to give the best service to the society. And more importantly, a few years back, the Bloomberg philanthropist gave an award to Mary Momolo with his initiative called Pay It Forward.
This Paid Forward program took place during the COVID times that it's a digital platform where individuals can donate and can pay the utility bills, either water or gas utility bills, and they will be and donate this for their neighbors or neighborhood or other underprivileged society members. So overall, Imam Olu's diploma was revoked. And then the next day what you see is that he gets arrested.
And a few days later down the road, the day that he is going to get declared as the main opposition party's candidate for president, that he is jailed, unfortunately. >> HR McMaster: This reminds me of our friend Leopoldo Lopez, who was the mayor of Caracas in Venezuela. He also was very effective.
He put into place, you know, a lot of reforms in education and parks and youth activities and got reelected, with a very large margin, like Imulu did when Erdogan tried to reverse the results of the last election, right, by, as you mentioned, annulling the election. And then of course, he gets elected with a much broader margin. But Leopoldo Lopez was also, you know, going to be a candidate against Maduro. Maduro had him arrested. What does this say for the prospects for democracy in Türkiye?
I have a soft spot in my heart for Türkiye ever since, you know, I was an officer, served in NATO. My father who served in the Korean War told me, hey, our best allies in Korea were the Turks. They were the best fighters, and he said we always wanted to be next to a Turkish unit because the Chinese and North Koreans wouldn't attack the Turks. So I've got a soft spot for the Turkish military, Türkiye as a country. But I'm concerned about this.
Are you concerned about the future of democracy in Türkiye? Could you explain to us, you know, what is the state of Turkish politics today? And elections still apparently matter, or they wouldn't have arrested the mayor. But we'd love to hear your assessment. >> Bilal Bilici: So first, if we could go back in 2019, Mayor Imam won the 2019 Istanbul race with a margin of only 13,000 votes. After that, an excuse was made up.
So it was repeated annual and the difference rose in the repeated election to 800,000. And this couldn't stop popularity of Imamoglu. And people really appreciated his services, what he's done and his sincerity. And in the recent 2024 municipality elections, he raised the bar to a million difference. So this is the background of the elections. But if we go back, what does this mean for our democracy and the world?
To be honest with you, hr, no country in the world is perfect, whether it's the United States or our European allies or Asian countries or Middle East. I mean, Türkiye, as you said, always had a strong foundation of democracy and we always managed to stay in the democratic league of nations time to time, like anywhere else, there could be interruptions and there could be up ups and downs, but these are the realities of the world.
I mean, there is no textbook definition of democracy as you can imagine. But the current situation and what has been happening in Türkiye is really puzzling. Because things have accumulated more or less for a decade long and definitely illustrate that there is an rollback in democracy, erosion of democratic values, institutions. Democratic backsliding unfortunately is taking place in our homeland.
It is sad to see these things, but these things and what we are facing and seeing also contradicts with Türkiye's aim and long term goals. Because Türkiye has a target regardless of all party lines. Türkiye has a target of becoming an EU member. These things, what's happening also hampers Türkiye developing into a correct model, which is modern, free, advanced, and prosperous. But these these are old negative things that is not helping our country and our nation.
>> HR McMaster: Well, on this program we try to, because maybe because I'm a historian, we try to tell the history of how these challenges developed or how we got to where we are today, how the recent past produced the present. Can you maybe give our viewers your perspective on the history of the AKP coming to power, President Erdogan come into power, and the degree to which he's been able to consolidate power through various institutions? Could you just give us your perspective on that?
>> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, I'm just going to echo one important quote by Martin Luther King. Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor. It must be demanded by the oppressed. So Turkish people showed a great sign of solidarity with Mary Mamola, and they been going on streets and protesting. But coming to your question with AKP and President Erdogan history, it is true, and it's a fact that in 2000, early 2000s, that Türkiye.
Türkiye has been struggling economically and politically and those days that in Türkiye there were coalition governments and certain things were really unstable. So when these things took place, when these things took place, there was also no real challenger, no alternative to the existing coalition parties. So only promising alternative to these things was akp. And those days, president of AKP, President Erdogan, created a diverse team of people and created AKP.
And they done great campaigning and they done important services. And with that, they came into power and they won the elections. I mean, there was no single election that they lost until 2024. In 2024, our party became the leading party as we won the municipality elections in Türkiye. So these are just signals that our party has gained momentum and now we are the leading party of Türkiye.
>> HR McMaster: Can you talk a little bit about President Erdogan's efforts to consolidate power politically? And I'm thinking about, the effort to modify the constitution, the consolidation of power after the coup attempt as well in several years ago, almost eight years ago now. And then also the nature of politics involving some of the minority parties, for example, the Kurdish groups, it's hard for, I think, outsiders to understand the internal politics within Türkiye.
>> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, sure, in the United States you have the two main parties, but the presidential system that Türkiye adopted past few years also turned Turkey into that category almost. So now in Turkey, the main political parties, with all respect, that are smaller parties as well, is AKP and the other one is CHP. These are the two main parties.
Besides that, there are smaller parties but the threshold, threshold to send representatives to the parliament is I believe it's around 7% or 8%, between 7% to 8%. So there, the parties who are able to get past that threshold is able to represent the party in the Turkish Parliament. But if I could go back during the AKP times, before they came into power, equalities, freedoms, rule of law were in a semi functioning stage.
And President Erdogan demonstrated and his services in Istanbul, when he was the mayor of Istanbul were appreciated, he used and he capitalized on his reputation. Then he became the prime minister. And more importantly, his influence imprisonment allowed him to gain more popularity among the Turkish citizens because Turkish people, they value, they are sensitive, they care to the individual who's underdog and who faces injustice.
So just as predominantly today Turkish society is backing and supporting Imam Oll, back in those days, society gave its hand to President Erdogan so coming to the smaller political parties in the parliament, there are around, I would say there are around six, seven or eight smaller parties. But the major parties, as I indicated, is AKP, our party CHP.
And then there is the Nationalist Party MHP, another nationalistic party that, that is called Good Party that I got elected from that party in 2023 elections. And there is the Kurdish faction party called HTP or newly named Dam. So these are the major parties in our parliament. >> HR McMaster: Well, I like just to kind of zoom out a little bit now and talk about maybe Turkish foreign relations. Right. And it's going through all these evolutions in recent years.
There was the no problems with neighbors policy. There was an effort, right, to have a close relationship with Assad and then the estrangement of Assad. Türkiye is in the center of so many important geostrategic competitions. From the caucuses to the Middle East, to the Black Sea.
And, when you look at the world from the perspective of Türkiye, Türkiye is kind of at the center of a lot of these critical competitions from the Ukraine war to the Syrian civil War and to the competition between Russia and Europe and how that's playing out in the caucuses and elsewhere and in the Black Sea region. How do you see these competitions affecting US Türkiye relations? Are we aligned? Where are we, where are we not aligned?
What do you see as the biggest issues that the United States and Türkiye should work on together? What are the, where are we aligned in our interests and where do we need to work to find common ground? >> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, you are right on Türkiye-U.S relations have strained due to the political differences and divergences in particular with Syria and the defense procurements.
I mean, if we could go back, the relations started after foundation of our country Republic in 1927, but before that historically, if we could go back during Ottoman times, the relation can go back towards the end of 18th century. So regardless of these historical facts, both America and Türkiye is a member of NATO. Both countries are members of G20. So there is so much to gain if we look at, look into eye to eye on mutual issues, of course, not every single issue are going to be solved.
Not every single issue is going to be. We may not be on the same level on every single issue. There will be differences, but we have to stick on our shared values. That's peace, freedom, security, prosperity. I mean, that's how I see it. Peace is not easy, especially nowadays and throughout history. Türkiye and Turkish society face difficult times and peace cannot be granted for free, everybody, every country, pays a price to attain peace.
And that's why there are no magic or grand formula to our problems. But one of the issues that I could bring to your attention is. Is Syrian issue, issue in Syria, and the Second one is S4 hundreds. >> HR McMaster: If I just below, just for our listeners, the S400s is the Russian made kind of high tech air defense system that Türkiye purchased from Russia. Created a lot of tension our relationship.
I flew for a meeting in Istanbul with my counterpart, Ibrahim Kalın, who is now the foreign minister, and Hakan Fidan, who was the head of intelligence or actually is now, who was the foreign minister and Colin is now the intelligence chief. >> Bilal Bilici: Yes. >> HR McMaster: And we isolated this issue. We said, okay, we've got two fundamental issues, right? One was Gulan, who was living in the United States, who was a big rival of Erdogan.
Erdogan accused him of inciting the coup against him. And the other big issue was S400. And of course, there were consequences. Bilal, right? We had to terminate Turkish participation in the F35 program. And, it was just a big irritant, that Türkiye purchased this air defense weapon system, which of course, I've shared with you I don't think works very well anyway. But I just wanted to give that background for our listeners. You're right, this was a big irritant in the relationship.
>> Bilal Bilici: So if I could address S400 issue that, this created a big friction because it's a Russian defense system and maybe it was a miscalculated foreign policy move from AKP. I mean, being a NATO ally, I believe that our commitments and also our equipment and artillery is mainly Western origin. So having a Russian made missile defense system is contradictory. But regardless of that I believe in full independence in our defense industries.
And just as you said regarding S4 hundreds, if you could go back a few months ago in October 2024, we have seen that maybe few F35 planes actually bombarded and destroyed S300 missiles in Iran. So just to emphasize I do not support or endorse this thing, but from a technical point of view, this also highlights the sophistication and the value of F35 planes that, unfortunately, Türkiye was forced to get removed.
And this is an unacceptable and a silly mistake because Türkiye was one of the partners of the program and contributed and participated. And certain parts of F35 planes were supposed to get manufactured in Türkiye by Turkish manufacturers. So this had an economic window and economic benefits that brought to Turkish industries. Unfortunately, with F35 and Court restrict, sanctions also took place.
I think the relations took a deep dive and came to a lower level that anybody could have imagined of. >> HR McMaster: Yeah, it was a sad period of time. And what I'd like to do Bilal, is just go, can we go issue by issue and just get, how would, how you see Türkiye's position in each of these circumstances? Of course, Türkiye was very much affected by the Syrian civil war, what I would call the serial episodes of mass homicide, you know, by the Assad regime.
Syria supported a range of opposition groups in, in the north, who ultimately, after Israel acted against Hezbollah was able to gain tremendous momentum and now take over the country. You have Jelani now. Shara is the name of the person who's declared himself as the interim president in Syria. What's Türkiye's position now on Syria? Do you think you can get to an end of violence? Are you concerned, you know, about the nature of that government?
That it could be a radical Islamist government that is not inclusive, that tries to put into place a type of Sharia law that oppresses women and others minorities in Syria? What's your perspective on Syria after the collapse of Assad? >> Bilal Bilici: So coming to Syria, Türkiye is the only country that has the, that has the 911km border with Syria. I mean, it is given that you could have some kind of a leverage in that equation towards your neighbor.
But most importantly, the territorial integrity sovereignty of Syria has a vital importance not to Syria itself, but to the whole region. Because we would wanna see a stable, prosperous Syria, peaceful Syria, not a Syria that creates a threat to the region or to Türkiye, to its neighbors. And nobody wants to see Syria exporting terrorism or nobody wants to imagine that Syria becoming another terror hub.
But if I could elaborate further on this, as you could imagine, Assad regime lost its credibility. And there have been many different challenges after the collapse of Bashar Assad regime and his departure. You know, it was clear that because his refusal of doing reforms and changes in his homeland created all this mess. I mean, Syria as a country was not so lagging behind. But with Ba'ath regime and under the Assad regime, things have gotten worse, especially after the Arab Spring.
We have seen and we have witnessed that. So as you also indicated, there are different groups, religious groups, ethnicities, different sects in Syria, whether it's Sunni, Kurds, Christians, Alawites, Druze, Turkomans. It's a hodgepodge of different diversities. So that's why Türkiye has a leverage at this point. And it's important that Türkiye takes a responsible position to help and assist Syria in that regard.
But I do not mean by help and assist in a way that to interfere, because interference has a different dynamic and definition, but to help to assist, especially humanitarian wise, economic wise, is very important and crucial. And as a neighbor, it is expected that you should be helping your neighbors. So without interference, without getting too much focus on Syria, correct assistance and aid is crucial. But as you have mentioned, what has been going on in Syria is also we have to wait and see.
Because nevertheless, since with the first Obama term and second Obama term, with all respect, America and the western countries place Syria as a frozen conflict. And they either did not want to deal with it, with it, or they have given up on it. So this created further motivation for these jihadi groups and leftovers, terror sympathizers, to get together and create their own formulas and equations.
So what we have seen is that once the regime collapsed and before that, Assad controlled two third of the country, one third of the country was not in its control, but it was a mess and it was very unstable. And there have been a lot of foreign powers, whether it's Russia, Iran or other powers, America or Türkiye, that all these countries had their own personal interests, own national interests, so it was a big mess.
And now, HTS reach an offshoot before their alignment had been with Al-Qaeda, as you can imagine, seemed to overthrow Assad regime. Their focus was to get some kind of liberation for the western Syria, Aleppo. Once Aleppo fell, then it continued with Hama Homs, and then to Damascus. So it is too early to make very, very direct and very concrete comments about the Syrian administration.
But what I have seen, from what I have read and watched, I could not see any word of democracy or involvement of democratic values and so forth from, from the Syrian leader to this point. So I could understand your worries, but I think it's too early to make any kind of comments for now. >> HR McMaster: Yeah, and I do Türkiye Turkey and Gutter Others have a lot of influence here just simply by demanding a pluralistic type government there and just by not writing checks.
I mean, if the Saudis and the Emiratis and the Gutteris and the Turks and, and Americans and Europeans don't write checks to incentivize, the kind of government that can help maybe, end the violence there. I mean, the country, as you mentioned, it kind of shattered like a light bulb, under the pressure of the civil war, aided and abetted by the Iranians and the Russians. I like to talk more about the Iranians and the Russians.
But first I'd like to talk about the northeastern part of Syria, where the Syrian Democratic Forces, the SDF, which is an organization affiliated with the YPG, a Kurdish political party that we know has ties as well to the PKK. Which is a Kurdish terrorist organization, there have been a lot of developments there, right, that organization, the SDF, not the terrorist organization, but the SDF is in control of a big part of Syria. Maybe 60% of Syria's oil reserves, it's on the border with Türkiye.
My Turkish counterparts, you know, feared that the SDF would become a Kurdish separatist army on their border. And I think that remains a concern for Türkiye. There are large numbers of ISIS prisoners and their families under SDF control. And as you know, Bilal, there's still active operations going on right, against ISIS in the northeast. What's Türkiye's position on that, on the sdf? You just had the prospect potentially of a renunciation of violence by the PKK.
Akalan, the leader who was in prison, made a recent statement. There's so much going on there. Could you maybe summarize those dynamics for our listeners? >> Bilal Bilici: Sure. I mean, maybe what Winston Churchill said in the past be true for Syria. He said, it's a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one chain link, only one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time. So this may be summarized because situation is very complex and complicated in Syria.
This also summarizes the situation, but I could tell you the following. Türkiye and Turkish people lost 40,000 lives, 40,000 lives of our people were lost over the last 40, 45 years. Türkiye has no tolerance regarding PKK and YPG, STF, both groups is directly linked with PKK, so SDF, YPG, PKK, in other words, are the same. Some say that it's an offshoot, some say there is direct, indirect. But the bottom line is that they are all together for a single motivation.
So existence of PKK is not only a threat for Türkiye, but it's also a threat for Iraq and Syria because they have been doing operations against Turkey in those regions and also against where they are based as well. So what we could see is that there should not be further instability in those regions. It's important that YPG, STF finds a solution, whether disarmament or whether they disarm or whether they dissolve or whether they get integrated to the Syrian system or Syrian army.
I mean, I could not comment on behalf of the Syrian government for this or Syrian authorities. Excuse me. And I believe that the new Syrian government has the similar or same understanding regarding these sensitivities, because few days ago, Secretary of State Marco Ribio met with his Turkish counterpart. And the outcome from the meeting, based on the State Department's declaration has been that United States also wants to see a unified, peaceful, stable Syria.
So stability is crucial and key because this region has seen a big turmoil and so many wars that have happened, whether the first Gulf War, second Gulf War, and then Arab Spring also, few regime changes took place. War in Lebanon and with the recent developments in Syria, as well as the tensions between Palestine and Israel. So these things created a lot of instability and also limits the prosperity of not a single country, but the whole region overall. So, that's why it's important.
It's time that countries big powers like United States find an equation or encourage more stability and less turmoil in the Middle East. But on the other hand, countries like regional powers like Türkiye should also find solutions and collaboration methods with other regional players, whether it's Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan. Because as we are living in this region, we cannot pack our bags and leave.
We are born here and we are living in this neighborhood, in this country, so we cannot pack up and leave. I mean, other external countries have that luxury, but we do not. So it's really important to focus to solve these issues. >> HR McMaster: Paul, I'll tell you, I think when I look at the region these days, it seems to me like it's a competition between three old empires to a certain extent, right?
You have the theocratic dictatorship in Iran that seems to want to reestablish the Persian empire and has done so by encouraging kind of sectarian civil wars than Iraq, in Yemen, in Syria. And they're applying kind of the Hezbollah model. They've been trying to apply the Hezbollah model where they have these militias, terrorist organizations that are outside of government control that could be turned against governments. If those governments don't act in Iranian interests, right?
So Russia also, was playing the role of arsonist and fireman in the Syrian civil war, right? Promising everybody in the region, including Türkiye, hey, just support Assad. Let Assad stay in power. And I promise over time to reduce Iranian influence in a post civil war Syria. Of course, now Russia's been kicked out. Iran is greatly weakened mainly by the actions of Israel in the region.
But is that how you see it, as well as a competition really for influence across across the Middle East, between the modern day versions of three empires? >> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, I mean, I understand your point. There could be a competition. That is why I have a motto or I have a belief in my approach that the founding father of our nation, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has a saying, peace at home, peace in the world. So Türkiye is an original power, important country, NATO ally and so forth.
But nevertheless, when it comes to Middle Eastern issues, these issues are very complex and complicated. It goes back historical dates and there are some have the animosities that have been going on backdated those times. But it's also important not to get bogged down on these regional Arab affair entanglements because we understand we should help and assist our neighbor.
Nevertheless, Türkiye has much more to gain if it makes the necessary reforms and align itself with European Union membership model where democracy, freedoms, equalities are exercised. And where we have also prosperity advancement like European nations. I mean, if we come to that level, it should be up to the Turkish people whether they want to become a member of the EU or not. But coming to your original question.
Yes I also see that there is an competition in the region among those regional powers. One hand, Iran is always there and they have their own agendas. Saudi Arabia, Israel has their own plans. Türkiye being an old empire and also has to protect its borders and neighborhood, has its own ambitions. So we could see that time to time, although we are neighbors, we are similar societies or we have cultural similarities that there could be divergence among our national interest and national policies.
>> HR McMaster: Bilo, it's really hard to project into the future as you mentioned, just this, I think this metaphor they used of one link at a time because it's so complicated these days. Yeah, would you share a little bit about your views on Turkish Israel relations, right?. I mean of course Israel was attacked on October 7th.
I think that probably Iran activated the ring of fire not only in Gaza, but the west bank and in Syria and in southern Lebanon and even attacks coming as far away as from Yemen. Israel's taken some decisive action on multiple fronts which I think in part led to the collapse, contributed to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Now Israel's moved in to a portion of Syria to secure its borders.
Of course Türkiye has this close relationship, with the hts and the new government as it's coming in into is trying to consolidate power in Syria. What do you think the future of Turkish Israeli relations are which have been up and down over the years, but mainly down in recent years. >> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, I understand that October 6th has been a tragedy and it's not acceptable and it should be condemned.
Nevertheless, Palestinians also, they also need to have a self determination as well as they need to have their state. That's why it's important in my own personal view that two state solution is the only key to have peace in the Middle East. And unless the Israeli Palestinian issue is solved, we could see more bitterness, more fighting and more aggression. And throughout history, we seen many instances and many chaos.
But I could say that after the Arab Spring and after the fall of the Assad regime, now Israel, besides Gaza, besides the Palestinian occupied lands, Israel is also occupying a Syrian territory. This is besides the Golden Heights, three times larger of Gaza, three times of Gaza that they have Occupied in Syria and this is a Syrian territory, Syrian land. As you mentioned, I think you like the Churchill world. It's a mistake to look too far ahead.
Only one chain, one link of the chain of destiny can be handled at a time. So this is a correct way. That also shows how complicated and how difficult current conditions are. Unless there is a fair treatment to the Palestinians, unless there is a clear direction and fair treatment of Palestinians, I do not think that Israeli Turkish relations will get back on track. And there have been so much frictions and so much ups and downs that both sides have their trust broken.
So once trust is broken, it's very, very difficult to fix it. So imagine if you drop a vase, it will be very difficult to glue it back together. So I would want to see a stability, I would want to see a prosperous region but nevertheless, only viable option will be two state solution. And few weeks ago, I believe the Egyptian, Egyptians proposed the Arab plan. And I think this is a viable solution that needs to be handled correctly. Unless Palestinians are there, Israelis should.
Israelis are also there too. Unless they have their own territories and homelands, it will be difficult to come to an agreement by all parties. >> HR McMaster: I think what's hard for some Americans to understand and certainly for Israelis to understand. I think obviously we should all be very much concerned with the play of the Palestinian people, the Palestinians in Gaza in particular. But it also, I think is a precondition for any kind of progress toward.
What you're mentioning is a,some form of a two state solution that Hamas be destroyed. Because Hamas is determined to destroy Israel and kill all the Jews, which doesn't sound like they're signing up for a two state solution. So it's just tragic that the Palestinian people have not been able to at least temporarily escape Gaza. I can't think of any example in warfare where people who are subjected to that kind of conflict and destruction haven't been able to leave the area.
Of course this is what happened in Syrian civil war and why Türkiye opened its doors right, to so many Syrian refugees, as did Lebanon, as did Jordan. So it's just a terrible tragedy. And I'm hoping that we can see a resolution that results in a better life for the Palestinian people. But of course a precondition for that I think is the destruction of Hamas but not to just go on to like another complicated topic but why not? Right after we've talked about all these difficult topics.
How about Russia now and Türkiye, Russian relations? How do you see those evolving? Of course, like all these relationships, it's very complex. There are deep connections with Russia in terms of energy connections and access to Russian oil and gas and transit fees for Türkiye. But also areas where your interests clearly diverge, as they did in Syria.
So could you explain your relationship with Russia, Turkey's relationship with Russia, and also how that plays out in the context of the Black Sea broadly. And the war in Ukraine and what you're and Turkey's relationship with Ukraine as well? >> Bilal Bilici: Yes, so if I could come to Russia. Russia is a world power. It's an important country and it's an important state and we always had courteous relations with Russia as Turkey. And there are a lot of Turkish businesses that operate in Russia.
Also there are so many Russian tourists that come and vacation in Turkey. So the relationship has been, can go back decades and centuries long. So during the Ottoman times as well. So, however, we also have this trade relations with Russia, also energy dependency with Russia, because substantial amount of our natural gas is coming from Russia.
There are pipelines from Russia that carry natural gas and it helps our industries as well as homes to get heat and to use this, turn this into also electricity and so forth. So coming to this, Russia's role is very important, a very key, very crucial and Russia is also building a nuclear power plant in Turkey. This is going to be Russian technology in the southwestern section of Turkey.
And also besides that, there have been some Russian businesses who took, who done big investments in Turkey and they find homes for their businesses in Turkey. They opened up factories and production facilities. As you said, we could go back to Russia, but both countries have an historical tie dating back to Ottoman and Soviet times. Nevertheless given to the Black Sea reality.
Turkish straits, both Bosphorus and Dardanelles, Chanakale, these are crucial areas for Black Sea and the Mediterranean because it controls these straits, control the passage of ships and so forth. But Turkey abides with Montreux Convention, and we apply the Montreux Convention accordingly based on its original conditions and terms. So nevertheless, this also helped in a way, this helped Ukraine one way, the other, so that Black Sea would turn out to be an almost a Russian lake.
And especially during the beginning of the Ukrainian Russian war, that there could be an overwhelming of Russian vessels that will be floating in the Black Sea. But based on this convention, Turkey did not allow certain, certain vessels, certain defense vessels to pass those straits but coming to the Ukraine as a country. Regardless of the political party we are with the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Ukraine is an important country and we support all peace efforts regardless where they are taking place. Turkey and Turkish people are tired, and nobody wants a war in its neighborhood. And I believe that Turkey has expressed many times its willingness to end the fighting. And at the moment under the Trump administration that there's an opportunity for the cessation of hostilities.
I mean, Turkey can play a role either hosting a meeting or sending troops, whether it's a peacekeeping mission or not. But Turkey's role will be significant. Regardless of the parties and involved parties, peace must be attained and it must be just sustainable. Because we don't wanna put ourselves in a situation that there's a temporary peace and after that the war will get larger and will spill over into Europe. That will be a night nightmare.
So I see that the foreign powers and the interlocutors that Turkey deals with that they also wanna see Turkey that is more institutionalized. And these relations go through the institutions, not by any individual person or any individual person himself. So that's why it's important that as a country we need to be systematic and at the same level or align with it. So I mean, I hope that the peace will be attainable in Ukraine because nobody want this war to prolong.
>> HR McMaster: Absolutely. And I just think at this time time it's really important to have clarity though too on obviously who the aggressor was here. >> Bilal Bilici: And also, I mean, if I could just jump in that regardless of the side, millions have died because of the Russian aggression which started in 2014 with Crimea. And this is a direct violation of international law. Once Russia annex Crimea, it continued and snowball effect further continued.
And we have witnessed and seen 2022 Russian occupation and some European countries and world powers blind an eye on these Russian malign activities. And the result unfortunately turn out to be disastrous. And they have emboldened Russia by not taking immediate action. We know that the areas in Ukraine, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea are now under Russia's control. And also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, they are also semicontrolled by the Russian military.
So I think both sides should find a solution and method that they could come to the table and make some kind of an sustainable peace. Because it's heartbreaking to see that what is happening in Syria, what has been happening in Ukraine is really a tragedy. >> HR McMaster: Absolutely, and I've got one more not easy question for you. And then I'd like us to talk a little bit more about where you think the trajectory is of US Turkish relations.
But I have to ask about obviously the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey's relationship with Greece, how that plays out over Cyprus and so forth. How do you see that relationship, the Turkish, Greek relationship at the moment? >> Bilal Bilici: Yeah, I mean, now there were times that things were more confrontational. But what I could say that the main problem when it comes to Greece and Turkey relationship is Cyprus.
I mean, unless the Cyprus situation is resolved and culturally Turkey is Turkish people and Greek people, we have similar culture, similar music, similar culinary food. So there is so much to share and so much that are similar. But coming to your question, that one of the frozen conflicts of the world is Cyprus. Unless this Cyprus issue is resolved, I think this is going to be like a hunchback for all region, including Europe, Turkey and Greece.
But what I could tell you is that if we could go back down the road in early 2000s, that there was the Annan Plan, Kofi Annan initiated this plan and there was a referendum in Cyprus. And based on the referendum, referendum took place in both sides, both the Greek area as well as the Turkish area. So based on this referendum, the Turkish side overwhelmingly were in favor of the referendum and accepted it and said yes, while the Greek side refused and rejected this proposal.
But after this unknown plan, after the outcome, European Union accepted Cyprus into the EU. When I say Cyprus, I mean the Greek side of Cyprus, not the northern Cyprus. So now maybe some of your listeners do not differentiate, but the island of Cyprus is divided into two. Northern part is recognized by Turkey as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and southern part is recognized as the Greek Cyprus.
So unless this is solved, I believe that the settlement as well as the peaceful equation in the eastern Mediterranean, will have its ups and downs. >> HR McMaster: Well, I'll tell you've been tremendous here. We've gone through from hard topic to hard topic. I guess at the end what I'd like to ask you is, gosh, seven years ago I flew to Istanbul to meet with Mr. Fadan and Mr. Colin.
And I went there because I was very concerned that Türkiye, as you stand at the Bosphorus, right, you get a sense of Türkiye could be pulled either direction, east or west, it really sits in between. I felt that Türkiye was drifting away from the west. And, and I, I shared with them, I said, I think this is maybe the biggest geostrategic shift in the post Cold War period. And it's against clearly US interests, European interests, and I thought Türkiye's interests at the time.
Well, now we've described a very dynamic situation right in the Middle East, in Syria, Türkiye's relations with all of the countries in the region. There's so much happening with an effort to try to end the Ukraine war with the really weakening of Iran. How do you see the trajectory of US Turkish relations? Are you optimistic about it? What's your vision of the future? >> Bilal Bilici: So I could.
Say, in a nutshell, if I could summarize, also because of the issues that we have discussed, whether it's S400 YPG, STF PKK issues, and also a few other smaller topics as well, that the relationship has its ups and downs, but in a bottom line, that there is a mistrust between both parties. This needs to be the root cause, I believe, is the mistrust. This should be addressed and this should be solved. But I also wanna highlight the importance of paying attention to the citizens and to the nation.
Because once again, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of our nation, said sovereignty unconditionally belongs to the nation. So the basic core idea of this word is the following, nobody's above the law, nobody is above the nation. Power derives from the people. It doesn't come from a dynasty, family, or external forces or external powers.
So we have to, when it comes to change or changes of the direction of the country or not, we have to look into the best interest of our country and nation, and prosperity. Equalities, liberties, freedoms, rule of law, these are all eroded in Türkiye. And I believe that Türkiye has much more to gain if it accommodates itself with its European Union candidacy position. Because the moment we are not there, Türkiye will be facing more problems.
When I visit a former president of Türkiye, he mentioned to me, he mentioned frankly to me that Türkiye doesn't have the natural resources, whether oil or gas. But he mentioned that There is the 85 million population and most of the, most of the population is at below the age of 30, 35. So majority is below the age of 35. So he said the only asset, main asset that we got is our young population.
So in order to motivate, in order to help and assist and develop this generation, what we could do is that allow an environment and climate that is free, prosperous, that respects rule of law, respects equalities, freedoms and free market as well, because economy is important now. The economy is really going down the drain and we are in a recession period in Türkiye.
That's why one of the top and hot topics that received great appreciation from the citizens is that Imamolu had done local restaurants, local municipality restaurants, that an individual would pay one or two dollars for a full meal. Whether you are a retiree or a college student, it wouldn't matter and you would at least fill up your stomach and appreciate the services of the city of Istanbul. But unfortunately, all his services have been under attack.
And we could see that women and young people wanna see A change in Türkiye and our party has never given up. It has never given up. And we chose correct candidates that are young. This also include women as well. And we cater towards these demands and these expectations. So if I could say and answer your question that it will be up to the Turkish people and Turkish society where Türkiye is going to go, which direction it's going to go into.
Of course, every country, every nation has its sensitivities and we have to respect and understand these sensitivities. And our party has managed to take the lead in this regards, especially our party leader, Ozgurzal, who is also a young leader. He managed, he motivated and he mobilized millions of people behind him and he made CHP as the leading party of Türkiye.
I think this momentum will carry on because people are sick and tired of status quo favoritism, nepotism, clientelism, and there is a fatigue of the current administration and also most importantly, a lack of economic prosperity. Türkiye y fully trusts and believes that there is rule of law. When these things are undermined, you could see that countries not going in the right direction. >> HR McMaster: Well, I can't thank you enough for this discussion. There's so much that we didn't talk about.
We talked about a lot, but we didn't talk about Central Asia, the Caspian region, you know, Azerbaijan, Armenia. I mean, maybe next time, right, we could talk, we could begin with those topics. But I can't thank you enough on behalf of the Hoover Institution. Great to see you again.
Thank you for helping us understand the battlegrounds that surround Türkiye and the importance of Turkey in helping us shape a better future, you know, for the people of Türkiye, the people for the United States and all of human kind. So thank you for being with us, Bilal. >> Bilal Bilici: It was a pleasure being with you, HR thank you for your time. >> Narrator: Battlegrounds is a production of the Hoover Institution where we generate and promote ideas advancing freedom.
For more information about our work, to hear more of our podcasts, or view our video content, please visit hoover.org.