Trying to Quantify Uncertainty

Contributor(s): Professor David Spiegelhalter | There has been a traditional division between 'risk', which can be quantified using probability distributions, and 'uncertainty', which is the surrounding mess of doubt, disagreement and ignorance. Spiegelhalter will use examples from swine flu to climate change to illustrate different approaches to dealing with uncertainty, from ignoring it to trying to fully quantify it, and conclude that we should all try to be aware and open about the magnitude and potential consequences of our ignorance. David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge as well as senior scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit.