Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4896008-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures....
Jan 31, 2025•11 min•Ep. 489
We discuss the outlook for US equity exceptionalism, it’s read-through for the dollar and the upcoming February 1st tariff announcements. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Prabhav Bhadani, Equity Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on Jan 31, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4898169-0, http...
Jan 31, 2025•22 min•Ep. 490
President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling perm...
Jan 31, 2025•15 min•Ep. 487
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4898059-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This materia...
Jan 31, 2025•19 min•Ep. 488
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy, and Michael Hanson, senior US economist, discuss their latest thoughts on US trade policy and Fed independence, following what has been a busy first week for the new administration, and what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting. Yield curves are likely to flatten in the near term, supported by a narrowing in longer-run breakevens. Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Michael Hanson, Senior Economist This podcast was recorded on Jan...
Jan 24, 2025•15 min•Ep. 486
US trade/ tariffs will be a multi-quarter theme and support for USD. Our bias remains long USD given its growth and yield advantage, but the trading approach needs to be more tactical. A (short) window has opened up for carry/ high beta recovery. Carry still favours the dollar but several high beta have started to screen more attractive. Funders, particularly CHF, will be vulnerable if DM yields stay elevated. DM central banks next week but most ex-Fed not meaningful for FX. Speakers: Meera Chan...
Jan 24, 2025•22 min•Ep. 485
Since the start of the year, Brent oil has been trading $4-7 above fair value, reflecting risks of reduced Russian and Iranian oil exports. Some risk premium is justified given the substantial figures involved: nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions. Russia has previously defied expectations of supply disruptions, and it is reasonable to assume that its export flows will remain resilient. However, application of sanctions on Russian energy sector as leverage in future n...
Jan 24, 2025•11 min•Ep. 483
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers European cross currency basis and their latest thoughts on the cross currency basis market. This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4889166-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase ...
Jan 24, 2025•12 min•Ep. 482
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892489-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/dis...
Jan 23, 2025•17 min•Ep. 481
The weather forecasts for early 2025 in both the US and Europe have turned colder, leading to increased natural gas demand and stress on projected end of season storage levels. While current conditions suggest a bullish outlook, we caution that there is still plenty of winter and time left in the year, creating significant uncertainty regarding price formation over the balance of 2025 in both markets. Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural...
Jan 17, 2025•15 min•Ep. 479
Arindam Sandilya , Junya Tanase, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook heading into the US Presidential inauguration next week. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on January 17, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4...
Jan 17, 2025•26 min•Ep. 480
Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro research at J.P. Morgan, discusses the outlook for government bond issuance in 2025 with strategists Jay Barry and Aditya Chordia. The team discusses how ongoing central bank QT amplifies issuance trends, and wide budget deficits suggest term premium should remain elevated in the US and UK, while these trends should be less impactful for Euro-area and Japanese yields. Speakers: Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy A...
Jan 17, 2025•22 min•Ep. 478
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authoriz...
Jan 17, 2025•19 min•Ep. 477
This week our Global FX Strategists discuss how much upside the dollar still has given US exceptionalism and tariff risks. They also touch on implications from the UK’s fiscal outlook for GBP, as well as the read-through from political developments in Canada to CAD. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutiona...
Jan 10, 2025•15 min•Ep. 474
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the surprisingly benign year-end for the repo marketsand what that might mean for the timing of QT’s end. Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy PJ Vohra, U.S. Short-Term Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879319-0 for more info...
Jan 10, 2025•10 min•Ep. 476
Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Between December 23 and January 8, oil prices rose over 6%, with Brent hitting $77/bbl and WTI nearly $75/bbl, a three-month high. The gap between realized and forecasted prices, which widened to nearly $10 last year, has now closed, aligning Brent with our $75 fair value for January. This price action is likely driven by concerns over supply disruptions from tightening sanctions, low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in the US and...
Jan 10, 2025•12 min•Ep. 472
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly ...
Jan 10, 2025•19 min•Ep. 473
In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the increase in yields seen since the start of this year. This podcast was recorded on 08 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4880271-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879160-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879138-0.pdf © 2025...
Jan 08, 2025•15 min•Ep. 471
Having marketed our 2025/2026 Oil Outlook over the last couple weeks, we address the feedback and questions we received from our clients. To recap, Brent crude oil is on track to average $80 per barrel in 2024, which is $3 below our projections from last June. We expect the price to decline to $73 in 2025, remaining largely consistent with our 2024 Outlook published last November, before slipping to $61 in 2026. Surprisingly, our demand outlook did not face significant pushback; however, there w...
Dec 20, 2024•13 min•Ep. 468
Arindam Sandilya and Octavia Popescu discuss the outlook for currencies following a busy week of central bank meetings. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 20 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4870676-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important ...
Dec 20, 2024•15 min•Ep. 470
J.P. Morgan’s Francis Diamond and Jay Barry discuss the varied outcomes of this week’s BoE and Fed meetings, and their implications for DM rates markets over the near term. Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Francis Diamond, Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 20 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4872382-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/conten...
Dec 20, 2024•23 min•Ep. 469
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 19 December 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authori...
Dec 19, 2024•19 min•Ep. 467
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, High-yield bonds and leveraged loans analyst to unpack the latest developments and 2025 outlook for credit market. Speakers: Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research Daniel Lamy, Head of E...
Dec 13, 2024•22 min•Ep. 466
The Global FX Strategy team discuss this week’s key events and market moves, while looking ahead to next week’s economic calendar. Speakers: James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4865721-0 for more information; please visit www....
Dec 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 465
The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger...
Dec 06, 2024•23 min•Ep. 463
The Global FX Strategy team discusses FX implications from upcoming DM central bank decisions, including the ECB, SNB, BoC & RBA. They also parse the USD response to this week’s Nov US payrolls report. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 06 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com...
Dec 06, 2024•16 min•Ep. 462
J.P. Morgan’s US Rates strategy team discusses their high-level themes from their recently published 2025 US Fixed Income Markets Outlook. Speakers: Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy Srini Ramaswamy, Global Rates Derivatives Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on 4 December, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpm...
Dec 04, 2024•33 min•Ep. 461
In this podcast Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and Octavia Popescu discuss the outlook for the Scandinavian economies, rates, and FX over 2025. This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4855621-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reser...
Nov 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 460
Not for the faint hearted. Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy Juan Duran-Vara, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845566-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights ...
Nov 27, 2024•16 min•Ep. 459
J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2025, focusing also on the various channels in which the new US administration can impact EM economies and fixed income markets. Speakers Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Jahangir Aziz - Head of Emerging Market Economics Research Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist
Nov 27, 2024•27 min•Ep. 458
