Predictions For 2022

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest

- Read the contest description/rules here
- Give feedback on the contest here
- And once again, the form where you take the contest is here

I didn’t let myself check prediction markets when making these forecasts since that would spoil the fun. I also only permitted myself at most five minutes of research on any one question.

See the bottom of the post for a contest/survey.

US/WORLD
1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: 40%
2. At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US: 10%
3. PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee: 80%
4: …thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee: 60%
5. Beijing Olympics happen successfully on schedule: 99%
6. Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict: 50%
7. Major flare-up (worse past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: 5%
8. Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: 5%
9. Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further: 5%
10. New ZEDE approved in Honduras: 30%

ECON/TECH
11. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 30%
12. Bitcoin above 100K: 20%
13. Ethereum above 5K: 20%
14. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 90%
15. Bored Ape floor price here below current price of $203K: 40%
16. Dow above 35K: 90%
17. ...above 37.5K: 40%
18. Inflation for the year below five percent: 90%
19. Unemployment below five percent: 50%
20. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 50%
21. Starship reaches orbit: 90%