Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-dogs-in-wizard-hats

I found this YouTube explainer about prediction markets on the subreddit. It’s pretty good! My small nitpicks are that it overestimates their accuracy relative to traditional forecasters (it focuses on markets beating forecasters in 2008, but I don’t think this is consistent) and underestimates their resilience against bad actors trying to skew the probabilities. Still, this will be my go-to source when someone wants a short explanation of what these are and why I’m so excited.

Last week I mentioned a new prediction market called Futuur . Today we’ll look at it in more depth.

Futuur sends non-Americans to their real money markets and Americans to their play money markets (because of the US’ unique anti-prediction-market regulations).

Their play money markets are awful: