TIL about hurricanes

The canary in the mind is the storm, right, that just washes everything away. There's a whole island nation in the Pacific. Yeah.

Welcome to today I Learned Climate, the show where you learn about climate change from real scientists. I'm your host, Laura Hesse Fisher, from the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative. You might have heard about how hurricanes are going to get worse with climate change, but why is that and how will that impact us? I'm uh Carrie Emanuel. I'm a professor of atmospheric science and I've been at MIT for thirty eight years.

Professor Emmanuel works at the MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, where he studies hurricanes. How do they work? Why do they behave the way they do? And can we make better forecasts of them? Let's dig right in. First, how do hurricanes work? So hurricanes are enormous heat engines. They convert heat that they extract from the ocean into wind energy. the faster they can extract heat from the sea, the more powerful they can become.

So what happens when a hurricane gets going is the wind starts to blow harder over the ocean and that evaporates more water. This evaporated water or water vapor starts to condense and form a tall cloud on top of the ocean. So when water vapor condenses, it releases the heat back to the atmosphere and it heats the air. So you're heating the air in the middle of the hurricane. That makes it want to rise. It draws in air from around it. The air spins.

And the wind blows harder, you get more evaporation. More clouds. Yeah. This is the origin story, the recipe for one of our clients. Just um really quickly we hear cyclones, hurricanes, tropical storms, superstorms. Yeah. Oh the vocabulary is terrible. In the science world, every everything you know is a hurricane is called a tropical cyclone, no matter where it occurs in the world.

Um, in the Atlantic in the eastern Pacific there's a regional name uh that comes from the pre Columbian inhabitants of the region. Uh Urukan was a god of evil and uh hurricane. Tropical storm is also used in this region for tropical cyclones that aren't of hurricanes. And then there's a whole superstorm is not a in our vocabulary. That's a weather channel or, you know, broadcast meteorologist type of thing. It's a very informal thing.

Okay, so the scientific term is tropical cyclone, but people use hurricane or typhoon, depending on where these cyclones are in the world. But they are all the same thing and work the same way. Strong winds suck heat from the warm tropical oceans, which warms the air and creates a snowball effect. Fast moving air sucks in more air and more heat until they turn into a storm.

But as we emit more greenhouse gases, Things start to change. There's a ton of research going into this area to better understand it. The bottom line is: cyclones are going to get worse with climate change, but not necessarily more frequent. We don't really understand what sets the frequency of hurricanes, even in the current climate, very well. There are about ninety tropical cyclones on the planet every year. And why it's ninety and not some completely different number is not something we

currently understand very well. The two things I'd say we're confident about all of the things being equal, the storms will be more intense. The storms will have stronger winds. When you put greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ocean not only warms up, but the rate of evaporation of seawater increases.

The science here is complex and I have to admit I had a hard time understanding it, but essentially the faster the wind sucks heat from the oceans, the more energy the storm has, hence stronger winds.

The other thing we're completely confident of is that a given storm will rain more. But that's very simple physics. The warmer the air, the more water vapor it can hold. We already think that a storm like Harvey or Florence would have been very improbable even twenty or thirty years ago in terms of the amount of rain produced. For those who are unfamiliar, Harvey and Florence were the names of hurricanes that hit the US in 2017 and 2018.

Professor Emmanuel will also mention Hurricane Sandy, which hit the eastern US hard in twenty twelve.

So at least scientists are confident that future cyclones will have faster winds and more rain because of climate change. That means more storm surges and more floods. Storm surges. In practice are the most lethal aspect of hurricanes globally. And what's a storm surge? It's a tsunami. It's a it's the same phenomenon exactly. The only difference is that it's created by wind rather than by shaking seafloor. But once it's going, it's the same thing. a big wave.

It's big wave and it has a d disadvantage that it arrives in the middle of a horrible wind and rainstorm. you know, your ho house can withstand the wind maybe, and you decide to stay in the in Near the coast and the storm comes, you think the water will rise gradually, and if it does, you'll go onto the roof or something. If it's a big storm surge, you don't have a chance. People should look at videos of storms. There are a few out there on YouTube.

You realize when you look at this that there's no way you can survive it. You can't outrun it. It's it's a tsunami. The other contributing factor to this is sea level rise. Storm surges will do more damage if they're more elevated to begin with. Sandy, if it had occurred in nineteen hundred, probably wouldn't have flooded lower Manhattan because sea level was about a foot higher than it was in nineteen hundred.

for perfectly natural reasons, plus man made climate warming. The other direct thing is um flash floods or very strong floods from heavy, heavy rain. That's what happened in Texas with Hurricane Harvey in two thousand and seventeen. The slow moving hurricane dumped rain on Houston day after day. causing massive floods and costing billions of dollars. Scientists gave storms like Hurricane Harvey about a 1% chance of happening in the 1990s.

Because of climate change, this 1% likelihood has already increased to more than 5%, and by 2090 could be getting close to 20%. Now two thousand and ninety seems far away, and it kinda is. You know, we probably won't be alive then. But if you have or will have children, then likely they and their children will be. Okay, so that's about the future. What about today?

When we talk about climate change and we want to translate that to risk, We wanna know how many storms are gonna be making landfall where, what their intensity will be, how much rain they'll produce, and so forth, and translate that into numbers we can understand like economic damage. Since the nineteen seventies, cyclones globally have caused, okay, get this, an average of seven hundred billion dollars in damages each year. That's seven hundred billion each year.

and because more and more people are developing oceanfront property and moving to the coast, the number of people who are at risk has tripled in this time.

I mean, look, I think people it's a free country. If people want to live on the coast, they should be able to. There are coastlines, uh the eastern side of the Philippines, for example, where There's been a more natural adaptation to a hurricane prone coastline. There are the handful of fortresses owned by wealthy people that are really built to take cat five typhoon, which is fairly frequent there, and they do. And then there are a lot of cardboard shanties.

that people build and go to for two weeks in summer, every once in a while it's blown or washed away. So what? It gets rebuilt. an intelligent adaptation to risk Creating hurricane-proof buildings and infrastructure is one option. There's also work to reinforce nature's ability to break storm surges or to absorb water, like with expanding wetlands. But some coastal areas are looking at just leaving. Other parts of the world are

particularly low lying islands, climate change is the dominant consideration for looking at twenty, thirty, forty years in the future. If you are on a mountainous island or high island, you know, the Hawaiian Islands, for example. the adaptation is to retreat gradually from the coast. If you're talking about a low lying coral atoll, sea level rise all by itself is a problem. It's already a problem in some places. And the canary in the mind is the storm, right? That just washes everything away.

I mean there are islands that they're contemplating evacuating. There's a whole island nation in the Pacific, uh Kiribosh. And they're thinking about just evacuating the entire population. And it's kind of sad. One of the purposes of science is to inform action. Scientists, planners, economists are working hard to understand.

how hurricanes are changing with global warming and what their impacts will be. This research can help policymakers see what their region's risks are and how people will be affected because the risks can be really serious. The number one thing. Don't mess around, get out. May prove to be you know for nothing. Maybe the storm will turn, maybe it won't be so bad. Don't risk your life. Okay. That's the number one message I have. Floods and storm surges are dangerous even without climate.

But with warmer oceans and air and a higher They're predicted to get even worse. If we don't lower the amount of greenhouse gases that are in our atmosphere, This is a future that we could expect. As a side note, many people have reached out to us asking us what they can do about climate change. This is a great question, and we'll be releasing a mini episode that talks about just this. It'll be out soon. Amen. For now.

If you're looking for more on the connection between hurricanes and climate change, and also examples of what people are doing around the world to prepare for more intense natural disasters, check out our show notes on tilclimate.mit.edu. Do you have questions about the causes and impacts of climate change?

Send us a message on Twitter at TIL Climate or email us at tilclimate at mit.edu. I'm your host, Lar Hessy Fisher from the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative. Thanks to Professor Emmanuel for sending us to the video. with us and to you for listening.