In Defense of Outliers
Episode description
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.” - J. Ann Selzer, President and Owner, Selzer & Company
Data and analysis are at the heart of nearly everything attempted in modern business. And while human skill is critical in the process of converting data into insight, human nature may ultimately determine whether the effort can be successful.
This episode is about ‘herding,’ a polling practice that combines analytical rigor and human nature in a fascinating way.
But this episode is not about politics. It is a story about data and how humans anticipate the others will respond to the data they present, and how that becomes a self-driven feedback loop that is put into practice before the data is ever shared.
No one wants to be an outlier. No one wants to be wrong. But if someone isn’t wrong, no one can be right.
In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barners dives into the practice of herding among pollsters and what it tells us about our relationship with data:
- The statistical truths that hold, regardless of how complex an analytical project is
- The challenges pollsters face, and how they inevitably end up affecting analytical results - for better or worse
- How all of this intersects with human nature - in polling and in business
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