Why Is Our Economy Doing This? Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

in a couple of minutes. But you know, shortly before he passed away, Rush Limbaugh said, there is no longer a constituency for fiscal conservatism. Nobody wants to hear about it. And certainly if you look at the last couple of them in administrations and Congress on both sides of the aisle, it looks like he's right. And I just wonder. I know, you're not a fortune teller, you're you're a domestic policy expert.

But with with the hyper inflation, the rampant inflation, the brutal prices, working people struggling just to put food on the table, at this point, is it possible we'll have some sort of national reawakening to the idea of living

within our means. I think it's entirely possible, especially when you understand that part of the reason, I mean a big part of the reason why I think we're experiencing this massive inflation in the country now is because of policy decisions we've made, and decisions that are directly related to incredible amounts of fiscal stimulus and spending. Obviously, the Federal Reserve has had something to do with that as well, and with their easy money policies for a very very

long period of time. But if you put that assign for a minute, I do think people look at the environment and they recognize that we can't continue to pursue this pathway we're on. The pathway that we're on has led to record inflation. And it's not just things that you know, people don't buy. It's it's basic commodity like

gas and milk, household necessities, even travel. I mean, in fact, the single biggest component of h of indicators looking at the rate of inflation, the single biggest increase has been in airline travel in terms of how much we pay for airline tickets. I think a horty percent increase year over year. So this is stuff where people will look and they'll say, Okay, what's happening. Why is our economy

doing this? And the answer is quite simple. It's because nobody has been there to sound the alarm about the way in the nature of our spending. If inflation continues for a while though, and I think it will, and the Republicans take over, will the presidents still get blamed or will the Republicans start to take the heat for it, because whoever's in charge tends to get blamed for a

bad economy. Yeah. And and the problem, of course is that even if the Republicans win, you know, one or two chambers of Congress, nothing's going to happen because whatever they would want to do, the president will will be against and vice versa. And and you know, we're kind of stuck in this difficult cycle for the next couple of years. Who takes the political blame? I mean, I think part of that is how the politics get played

out by both sides. But I think that the reality is both sides need to wake up to the fact. And by the way, Republicans are just as guilty over the last couple of years of not being physcally responsible of not understanding what happens when you pump all this money into the economy, of being in favor of policies that unfortunately have driven up our debt and have driven up, uh,

the amount of spending. But if you put that aside for a moment, I do think that both sides have the potential to get blamed if this gets worse, because now both of their hands are dirty. Well, just they have to understand. Yeah, well just one of the reasons I wanted to bring that up is um I heard some other pundits discussing this, So this is not my original idea, but you would think with inflation at a forty year high, crime like we haven't seen for decades,

Republicans would be running away from this thing. Is with this thing with this election all over the country is opposed to just a slight advantage. So what's going on there? Well, it's complicated. I mean, I think in different places the the economy is kind of playing in different ways. I do agree with the notion that the economy is going to be the top issue in this election. I think you see it here in California, you eat in other states.

I think in other states. There are issues, you know, whether it's crime or some of the social issues that do rise into that top three, top four. But fundamentally, I think the polling doesn't reflect where people are on the economy and how dominant it is going to be. I think people are going to be surprised by how predominant it is, and as a result, I do think Republicans and many of these House races are going to do well. I think in many of the Senate races

are going to do well. There's a few races where where there's some candidate issues, but I do think overall the economy is going to be a much more significant issue than people are giving a credit for. Because I'll tell you when I'm out there on the campaign trail, that is all I ever hear about from people is why does stuff cost so much? Why are we headed for recession? How did we get here? And how do we fix it? Hey? Speaking of polling, how do I

phrase this question? How well are polsters? How how good a job repolsters doing these days? In actually reflecting the support for Republican candidates and ideas. There's a widespread perception among folks who are on the right side of politics, and I just mean, you know, average every day folks that um that that conservatives are much more hostile to polling in general and so don't cooperate. Is there any truth to that? Yeah, I do think there's some truth

to that. I do think that there is. There are a couple of things going on. First of all, I think that polsters are getting better at actually finding people. So for a period of time, as people were shifting from landlines the cell phones and their Internet use was increasing, polsters had to accommodate the shift in how to reach people. But also they had to figure out how do we conduct internet polling or online polling in a scientifically valid way.

And I think that shift, you know, has happened in the last couple of years. I think it is essentially complete now. So I think they've gotten better at that. The problem that you're talking about sort of response bias, you know, who answers the questions, who answers them accurately?

That is a very very real problem. And I think if you talk to posters, they'll tell you that they have a they have a challenge in terms of measuring where right leaning Republican self identified Republican voters are, because that is, it can be hard to get either a real answer or any answer because there is this distrust of the polling industry, particularly amongst some conservatives. So it's

a it's a problem. I think it's getting better. I think that it will be addressed more in their scientific ways to correct for some of this, and so hopefully we'll have more accurate polling data. But you know, the toughest question to answer is, like, you know, what do the polls say? Because the reality is pulls a kind of all over the place A and B. It's not clear they're a an accurate representation of where the electorate is,

particularly to your point on the right of center. Start all right, I don't know if you've been listening to our reading what your friend Sarah Iger has been writing in the Dispatch about issue polling. She says, it's almost completely a waste of time. Do you agree here? Disagree? I mean, that's just what's so much about the way you pray is the question and who you sample exactly exactly.

So so issue pulling is it's unique sort of has unique difficulties because it is based on how you ask the question, and it's also based on whatever your your respondents understanding of the issue, and and and then it

becomes deeply kind of like a personal thing. Right, So if you asked them a question about tax cuts, they may or may have had some experience with the tax code or some experience with a small business or whatever that that affects their view of the policy, so that you're not actually getting a true representation of the feeling about the policy. You're getting you know, they're feeling about the economy, or there's something is mixed into how they

feel about that policy. So it is hard. It's always been hard to pull issues, by the way, I mean, that's not a new concept. I do think that it makes it harder for policy makers to really understand where the elector it is and to have public policy that's responsive to what the electorate wants. But but it's not a new problem, and it's one that certainly is out there. So I have a question about the office you're running for, and I will reveal to the listening audience my secret

motive in asking after you answer. But you're you're running for California State Controller. What the heck does the state controller do? The state controller is the fiscal watchdog, the person who's supposed to give accountability for every single dollar that they spend. So if you think about California as a three hundred billion dollar a year enterprise, that's how much we spend every year. Uh. This is the person that's supposed to give us accountability and transparency for how

that money is spent. But more importantly, is supposed to tell us how the spending is working. Is it achieving results? Is it not? And so it is a particularly important position at a time when California is spending more than ever and some of our challenges here, whether it's homelessness or public safety or the state of our public schools, some of those challenges I think are bigger than they've been at any point in my life. The idea of the government of California taking time to make sure it's

spending money wisely and efficiently. I'll donate my next two paychecks and a kidney if that will help you. I mean, because it's so important. So here's here's my secret motive in bringing this up. Off year elections and so called down ballot races are important, and I just want to convey to the listeners the forces that would turn wherever you live into another California, or make California even worse, they turn out their people to elect controllers or attorney city,

attorney's county attorney's, attorneys general, that sort of thing. School boards. We've all learned how important that is. Show up and vote, especially in the off year elections. I agree, I agree totally with you. That's hugely important. And and you you mentioned a lot of these these races. I mean, the school board races are critical, but also the races for these down ballot offices. We have eight statewide constitutional officers in California, and all of them play an important role.

And people need to understand and study the ballot and and make informed decisions. Should you be controlling the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers with a two million dollar payroll are attempting to buy a World Series championship. Listen, listen, it's not There's no such thing as buying a World Series Championship. They're gonna go out there, They're gonna go out there and earn it. They're gonna go out there and earn it. As every confidence they're gonna win this series.

I always always like it when people say this sort of thing because I've been a you know, following this angle in sports for a long time. The Mets, who didn't make the playoffs have the number one payroll. The Padres, who are the young up starts trying to take on the Dodgers, have the fourth highest payroll in all of baseball. So there you go. I was gonna say, what are your communist? It's a for profit business. Hey, we're up

against a break lin he. But it's always great to talk to you, long he Chan, candidate for California State Controller with the Hoover Institution Stanford University. Always a pleasure, sir, stay in touch. Great to be thank you are getting