The topic is the trade war with China. Two very simple questions for our guest, Ian Bremer, When will it end? And who will be the winner? And as soon as the answers as will move on with our lives. Ian Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group. That would be a waste of the brilliance of Ian Bremer. Please, Ian, how are you very well? Sir? How are you guys?
When will it end? And who will win? Uh? Well, I mean we will win because we are bigger, and it will impact I mean, whether we end it or not, it's going to have a lot more impact on China than it will us. But there'll be some you know, broken ceramics uh in the interim and uh. And we're already starting to feel that. Um. There's definitely been marked impact in the US and it will definitely affect some
consumers pockets. UM. I don't expect that the remaining three billion um that Trump is threatening of tariffs, I don't think that's going to hit because those are on consumer products that will be very visible to Trump voters and will be immediately visible to the media. I don't think he wants to do that, So I do believe that both sides are incented pretty heavily to UM. Now find a way to get closer to yes before Trump and Cheese and Thing meet directly next month at the G
twenty meetings in Osaka, Japan. Uh. We have a friend of the show who has worked and lived in China for decades and studies Chinese economics. He's saying that there is a growing sense in China, at least among some fairly powerful people, that hey, look, bringing ourselves up to the rest of the world standards in trade is a good idea that would be good for China long term. How significant is that group of folks in China do
you think it's growing? Uh? You know, China used to be a technological power purely because they stole stuff from the Americans. And if that's the way you build your technology, then you don't want to get to our standards. But today China is the world leader in some areas of technology. They're better at voice recognition and facial recognition than we are. UM. They're better at ride sharing UM than we are, in
part because they just have so much more data. I mean, we have eight hundred million people on smartphones and fifty times as much digital commerce as the Americans five zero.
Then then you're just going to get better at this stuff, right And and in that regard, you've got a lot of Chinese companies that are nominally private sector but very aligned with the Chinese government, not like our private sector companies, that actually want to make sure that their own patents are protected, their own intellectual property doesn't get stolen by anybody,
by Chinese competitors, by Western competitors. So there is a growing demand for improved standards in China, and there are many that appreciate a push from the Trump administration to get there, but they don't want to be embarrassed publicly, and they also want to have their take and eat it too. They don't want to open their economy to the Americans. They want to prefer the Chinese companies. So there it's not as if they want to become a
free market economy. That is cruely not true. I was because I was going to ask, how much do you buy this idea that this isn't just the trade war around the specifics being discussed. This is a battle of two systems to see which one is better. Uh, it's a little bit I mean, Trump and Cheese and King have had their teams negotiating around trade and around issues that complicate trade. I mean, there are a lot of places that we really disagree with the Chinese, and they're
not being negotiated at all. For example, just yesterday, the Americans put some significantly harder line policies in place that are going to hurt Huawei, the telecom company aligned with the Chinese government, and five G their effort to dominate the rollout of what will be the backbone of the
entire Internet of Things. So, I mean, the fact that the Americans and Chinese have been talking on trade hasn't had in any impact on our fight with them on technology, or on Taiwan or Hong Kong or the South China see you know, or the weakers for example, a million of whom are being held in detention camps um inside China. None of that is coming up in the negotiations that
we're having with them on trade. But what that also means is that if we do get a deal on trade and on balance, I'm more optimistic than than pestimistic. I still think that the level of trust between our system and their system is near zero and the likelihood of conflict that we will have on all those other issues doesn't get reduced. Um in the aftermath of a big announced deal. Really, how interesting. Ian Bremer, President, founder of Eurasia Group on the line. Uh, you know, use
a percentage, use a letter, grade, lease whatever you want. Um, how optimistic are you that this gets resolved stay within the next two months? Two months? Uh, probably by the end of the year, north of fifty. But even if it doesn't get resolved, I would be surprised if we see, um, the tariffs hit the entirety of Chinese imports into the United States. Really, in the context of the markets, I'm more optimistic than not. You know, you look at where
the average American market participant is right now. I'm probably on the bullish side, right. Ian Bremer, President and founder of Eurasia Group. Ian, Uh, really enjoy it. We know how busy you are. Look forward to a longer chat down the road. But thanks a million talking to That was the best thing I've heard on the China trade things. And it's not Trump's trade war is hurting that, you know, I know? Oh my god, can we talk about the
bigger picture? Please remember the stock market going into the tanker on Monday Trump's crash, it's pretty much back to where it was on Friday's close exactly. Yeah, and I saw shows that I like with hosts. I like talking about that with serious tunes. Let's go to our correspondent on the floor of the of Wall Street here at the down. What does this mean to people in their four one k It doesn't mean freaking anything. Well, if you dash out completely today at noon, that's been your
plans since you were a wee lad or lass. Okay, great, then you've got a problem because you just lost three or you could wait two days, or it was an opportunity to strengthen your positions and things. The big brain positive sean of the investing class, Hi, Hi so high? Is that it? But Ian Bremer right there, who's no Trump fan follow his Twitter feed, Who's gonna win this war? We are no hesitation whatsoever. So there you go, there you go, there you I go. I tell you what.
I am so mad at America's media today. If there are a number of issues that they are just wildly out of line in the way they they're such a distorted lens of the way America really feels and is just makes me nuts. But I was kind of surprised that in two months, I'm above fifty by the end of the year. By the end of the year, you just get over this is gonna end. That surprised me. That's a lot longer term than I was expecting. Yeah,
Ian Bremer with more bombshells than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hey, there's a little geo political The Weaker sounds like a sitcom Meet the Weakers, But that's the the Muslim group. They're holding concentration camps there, and yeah, at least a million, a million. It's amazing how little coverage that gets. Some people say, it's three million, three million people in concentration.
Keep voting for socialism, it'll be great. They just just it's bad people who won't cooperate who end up in concentration camps, not good people who follow the government's orders.