When to Hold 'Em, When to Fold 'Em. Lanhee Chen talks to Armstrong & Getty

signed something that I couldn't signs something today. We actually had papers ready to be signs but it just wasn't appropriate. I want to do it right much around, to do it right than do it fast, just like in prison. Um you so sometimes you gotta walk away. That's what the President said about the North Korean summit. Sure absolutely to discuss the summit and other matters political. We are pleased to welcome back to the Armstrong and Getty Show.

Lon Heach and most of the podcast Crossing Lines with lanh Chen, also a Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies, Lecture and Public Policy at Stanford University of Quaint Little Community College in northern California. Loni, how are you, sir? Good morning, gentlemen, how are you? It's merely my inferiority complex that makes me make those little jokes at Stanford's expense. I hope you will forgive me and or pity me. Okay, I'm sure you already

pity me anyway. So Hey, my theory I Joe have been saying for quite some time the most likely outcome, by far is that North Korea gets a usable nuclear arsenal and we just have to live with it, and any hope to the contrary has been a long shot. Would you agree or how do you see the question? Well?

I think that a fair amount of pessimism is warranted in this entire process, and you know, from from all along leading up to the Hannois Summit, leading up to the most recent set of discussions, I was warning people that, you know, to expect a deal I think is overly optimistic because of the conditions on the ground that we know of in North Korea. And I say we know of because the reality is, we really don't know how

far along they are in many respects. They've got elements of nuclear capability that we're not aware of, which, by the way, was one of the reasons why in this negotiation the United States was demanding a full accounting from the North Koreans of what they had and and even

that they were unwilling to do so. I do think to a certain degree, the North Koreans are far enough along in their nuclear program, they have enough to sell material developed, they have warheads, they're able to put that material on warheads, that that this is a serious set of considerations. And so I'm glad that we're engaging in discussions with them, but I'm not surprised we weren't able to reach a breakthrough in this summit with North Korea.

If if, if they just are accepted as a nuclear state by the world, would they be the craziest nuclear state? Or with Pakistan still have that tidally thing. Well. This week, I mean there's been a lot of a lot of conflict between Pakistan and India in the Castian Region, which is the disputed region between the two countries. The pakistanis the problem with Pakistan is that it's never entirely clear

he's in charge. You've got the sort of triumvirate of authorities there, You've got the intelligence services, which are incredibly powerful. You've got the military, and then of course you've got the civilian leadership. And the problem with Pakistan is less that there is unpredictable or eccentric as Kim jonga, and it's more that you just never know who's in charge when. So we are out of places. Yeah, well, and and and it's it's not unusual to see in in that

part of the world. So I feel like the North Korean we shouldn't simply accept that North Korea is a nuclear power. We should we should want to do something about that the Korean peninsula to seek the nuclearization. But the reality is they're quite far along, and we have to we have to accept that they are where they are and do our best to try and push them

away from nuclear folly. One of these we like best about talking to you, Alan, he is that you're you're thoroughly acquainted with the conventional wisdom, but you're not a slave to it. Having said that, what do you think of the unconventional Trump approach to summits and getting together with world leaders and and Kim Jong un in particular. You want to go, you want to meet to share,

I'll meet where you were when, Okay, I'll be there talk. Yeah, I mean I I he is someone who obviously has managed throughout his whole career to get things done in an unconventional way. So I'm not going to sit here and say that his technique is wrong because it doesn't

follow ninety years of the way we've conducted diplomacy. That having been said, I think there's a reason why you want the subordinates to get together and hammer out something and then bring it up to the next level and let them hammer something out and really just let the

leaders come together. But you know, I was thinking and reflecting last night, guys on the discussions that Reagan had with Gordon Shop in the eighties, and recall that that took several in person meetings I think five before they were able to reach some substantial agreement. Reagan had to walk away from the table at one point. Reagan wasn't hesitant to meet directly with gorbu Chaw. So I don't have a problem with Trump trying to do this one

on one. What I hope though, and actually I don't hope. I know this is happening. There are very good people in our government who know a lot about these issues, who very much want to describe the reasonable agreement with North Korea, who are putting in an awful lot of time and effort into UH into getting things done. I'm very close to someone who's very deeply involved in the process now, and I know that with the negotiations partly in his hands, and I feel very good about the

possibility of the good outcome. I also felt very good by the way that President Trump wasn't gonna sign a bad deal. I know there's a lot of people on the left were like, oh, Trump's gonna give away the farm. Let's not forget we have a system around the president.

And at the end of the day, the President, I think did the right thing by listening to the Council of people like Pompeio, the Secretary of State, and John Bolt in the National Coecurity Produces probably told him, look, trading sanctions for the destruction of one non nuclear facility

is probably not a good idea. Well, Kim swung for the fences, And my theory is they got smart people watching cable news all the time they're here, and all the talking heads say, you know, the Cohen hearings are happening, and Trump's under the gun and he might give away the farm. They thought, why not, why not throw him our best deal and see if he bites. Yeah, I mean it's it's a negotiation, and that the North Koreans

are clearly savvy enough to have gotten to where. I mean, let's just step back and take a look at North Korea. It's a country with a miniscule g d p Uh. They've got massive areas that don't even have power. They've got people who are starving. Uh. The number of people who are doing well economically is probably fewer than the number of goolags in the country. So, you know, for them to have gotten to this place suggests that they're

actually pretty savvy, pretty savvy bunch. And so yeah, absolutely, I think they looked at the conditions that we're gonna do everything we can to try to seize on the press. Isn't when they proceed, he's weak. But obviously they said that the system in place, the system was effective, and I'm glad to see that we ended up where we did. His podcast is Crossing Lines with lon Hea Chen. You should check it out. Did you see the videos of Kim smoking cigarettes during the breaks? His sister has to

run around with the ashtray. I don't have a sister, but if I did, I don't think she'd follow me around with if I wonder, it's quite it's it's really terrific service they had over there. That's pretty awesome. Good to be a dictator, soln he as long as h Jack brought up the unholy specter of the coin hearings yesterday, um, and and your specialty is indeed in domestic policy. Overall impressions of the spectacle of that hearing the testimony, how much did you get to see? Um? I thought a

decent amount of it. Actually, that was on a plane yesterday and they had the direct TV on. So how many people seem to be watching it on the plane? A lot of people, I would say about sel around me were watching it. I was shocked, actually, maybe because there was nothing else to watch. That's it. Yeah, although although although there was a spring training which was which

was a nice distraction. But I tend to think that, Uh, there's a couple of things about the testimon I mean one, obviously, Cohen's credibility is not the greatest out of all of

the witnesses we've seen appear before. Congress. That having been said, the fact that he was with the president before he was the president for so long, and you know, I recall Michael Cohen in two thousand twelve when I was working for Mitt Romney as a as a senior aid on that campaign and we were dealing with the Trump orbit, the Trump community. Uh, it was Michael Cohen who we

dealt with primarily. And so Michael Cohen is somebody who has clearly been around the president, knows a lot, has reason to know a lot, and so I don't doubt that at least some of what he said yesterday was true. I do think it was a spectacle in the sense that both sides have already decided what they want to use. Is for the Democrats are going to use it to pursue impeachment. The Republicans are going to use it as an opportunity to defend the president and to slander Cohen.

So he bothi'es already decided what was going to happen. I don't know that we learned a whole lot of new stuff from the hearings yesterday, but what I do think is that for the Democrats who have held the hearings during the North Korea talks was not an accident, and I do wish that they I think they could have accomplished the same thing that they only waited a few days. That's a really really weak Is there a fictional voter out there that doesn't believe Trump's the kind

of guy that Cohen presented him as yesterday? I just, I just I think everybody knows when they heard he you know, he got a phony bidder to buy his own painting. I think most Trumps reporters think, yeah, I think he's Donald sounds like Donald Trump. To me, I still like him better than Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris. Yeah. And I think that someone I forgot who was put it well yesterday when they said there was a lot of embarrassment but not a whole lot of illegality. I

do think there was a lot of embarrassment. Now that the the bigger investigation than the Mueller investigation, I think, is this investigation that's going on in this othern district of New York, which is the district which covers New York City and obviously has prostratorial oversight on on violation of the federal law that happened in New York City, and so the question is, did the Trump organization or any that Trump charities violate UH campaign finance and other laws?

I think I think that may be the legal exposure the president has. But it's not like I walked away from yesterday thinking, you know that the president had colluded with Russia anymore than I saw before, which is I'm not convinced that happened, and so we didn't learn anything new legally, but it was embarrassing for the president and probably not a great thing for him to had to had to go through or to watch for that matter.

I do find myself wondering what the fate of the Trump empire is going to be, though, given the investigation you referenced and the complexity and creativity of their dealings through the decades. Um we will see, I guess. H lan is the host of the podcast Cross Thing Lines with Lana he Chen. We will have a link so you can find it and listen to it easily. He's also a David and Diane Stephy Research Fellow with too Over Institution, Director Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University. Lanhi,

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