The breaking news overnight was that the Iranians shot down a US military aircraft. I prefer to call it that as opposed to a drone, because I don't know, just drone sounds too soft. I'm about unmanned aircraft. One of our pilots didn't get killed. That's fine, you got to throw that in. But it's it's it's more than just you know, some tiny little drone you bought at Walmart. It's a bigger deal than that. It's the latest step in a significant step in the escalations attentions between the
US various of our Gulf allies in the Iranians. My clients military analysts joins US major Mike Lions, not only in military analysts as we were discussing last hour, but a historian. Uh, Mike, welcome, How are you guys. Great to be back with you. Thanks. Um Is it's does this worry you? Is this a big step? Well, it's a it's now this is the red line there. They are literally right at that place where we've got to
respond to do something. I think you go back to the Trump administrations Tehran a few months ago that killing an American soldier was going to be that red line. You cross it and you're going to get everything that we've got coming at you. The Uranians took that list and set down made a list of all the things that they could do that did that they could take that would um just would upset us interests and allies and and this is one of us that stops just
short of it. We didn't kill a soldier, but we took out one of your military assets. And I think there's other items on that list. They're going to continue to do this. Um, they knew full well what they were doing. UM, this is an aircraft fly the twenty feet service to air missile had to take it out, um, had to return address. And so that's probably was the first thing we could do, is we can go after the missile base that shot this aircraft down. Interesting point,
so they're claiming we were in their airspace. We're saying we were in international airspace. Do you have any doubt that we're telling the truth. You know that aircraft flies at such a high altitude that it wouldn't you know, violate anything, uh from a from a threat perspective, if it's if it's monitoring it. What countries do is they
have this lily pad approach. They if they if they claim an island out let's say in the Persian Gulf is Iranian territory, they drop a lily pad on it and say, Okay, thirteen miles now around that island is now Iranian airspace. It's been ignored by the rest of the world. But that's what the Iranians might be claiming as to why it is because I doubt that we would got fly that close. And this is not something
that has to fly close. It's it's a surveillance collecting you know, big Blue, the way all looking device that that flies collects a lot of data, stays on station for thirty hours, has tremendous capability. But but but not but not something that has to violate the airspace. Let's pull back a little bit. Speaking of being at feet, What's what's the game iran is playing right now? What are they trying to accomplish. I think they're trying to divide the United States with its allies, and I think
they're trying to get the sanctions relieved them. The only thing I can think of as to why they're going after the tankers in the Middle East is because they're just trying to drive up the price of oil to get as much as they can for what they are able to shift out of the Persian Gulf. Right now, the sanctions have really strangled them. That doesn't don't have the same capability to to move a lot of their um their oil, and countries that we've got um in
our back pocket aren't buying it anymore. UM. Still, India, Japan, China continues to um to buy the oil coming from Iran. But I think that's that's what that's all about. UM. And now we're going to see what the response will be from Germany, from England, France, we saw Russia's already weighed in they're gonna be on the side of the Iranians.
But when when Iran does something like this, if the British don't come back and support us, and the Germans don't support us, then the messages we're going to go this alone. And an interesting article over the weekend about if the United States decides to go to war with Iran, we'll lose this century to the Chinese, and I think there's a kernel of truth in that. I think if we if we decide that we've got to go after the Iranians now militarily, it's gonna have to be all in.
We're gonna have to you know, we can't have this limited war anymore. Um. I think we're gonna lose our focus in the South China see, and we'll we'll we'll suffer losses and we'll have a problem. And I think there's a little bit of truth to that. And you think Iran knows that. I think they do, and I think you know, they recognize that war still has regime change for them, and it's suicidal and they don't want
to do it. And they'll likely, as they did with the Iraqis in the eighties, they'll do what they can to to stop it. And and they'll they'll look for China and Russia to come in on their side. I mean,
it could, it could escalate very quickly. Um. But they're betting that the world will not side with the United States of the United States are gonna have to make this decision on its own, um, knowing the critical pressure here in the United States, knowing that you know, I'm watching people this morning literally bring blame Donald Trump for this is just beyond the pale that we went bringing our president for neuron targeting and shooting down a US
military asset is just beyond beyond belief. Well, the point is, of course he pulled out of the nuclear agreement and has ratcheted up the pressure and made them squoil. And this is them squealing, right, So you know that's true as far as it goes, whether it's good foreign policy or not. I suppose you could argue about, um, major Mike clients on the phone, Mike, if you're going to switch into advisor mode, Um, what would you suggest our response be to the shooting down of this rather expensive
unmanned aircraft? No, it's it's expensive, it's a cost more than the Actually I would Um, I'd likely target the missile base where it came from. I think that that would be a fair measured response to this, and actually hit it with a U S missile. I would, given it's likely along the coast someplace, maybe perhaps uh, you know, give them some that that would show that we're willing to actually swing a stick. Now, UM, kill a couple of Rainians hanging around the hanging around there or not
if they were unfortunate enough to be there. I think that you know, there's there's other things that the range are doing. They're going after the de stalization plans in Saudi Arabia, they're doing all these these things again to go right to that line, we've got to tell we've got to unblow that line and say, you know what that line now is destroying this equipment. At this point, I think um I would do that now, then see
what the escalation goes from there. You know, we can't live our lives worried about the Iranians unleashing Heasburah and and secret cells throughout the world, and terrorist groups that they are. Look what Ran didn't in two thousand eleven to Obama. They shot down a drone that that what was it, the the r Q one seventy, that drone that that stealth looking thing. And Obama politely asks it back, you know, please, can we have our drone? Back says no, no, no,
not gonna give it back. We're gonna re engineer one. We're gonna make one ourselves. I'm gonna put it on display to show the world about how much we've we've destroyed you. So you know, these people don't play, They're not they're not interested in making us look good. And at some point I think there's going to be a
conflict here. I know the President makes the ultimatecall on this, but right beneath them the Secretary Defense, Our current Secretary Defense has got the job for about twenty four more hours. Does that make it more difficult? You know? Um. Patrick Shanahan has been on a kind of a Dennis I
think for past few weeks. I think, you know, they were trying to blame the McCain incident on him, and kind of what I had was there was something coming down and obviously that that that you dropped with this UM incident to this this UM his domestic incident that happened where he looks more of a victim than anything else. UM unfortunately. But so the guy that's been running the panogony is Joe Dunferd is the four star chairman of
the GEINT Chiefs of Staff. He's been the steady hand at the wheel, not getting a credit for it, you know, kind of classic, you know, in American style. And so h and Mark Asper, who will take over in the seat UM former he's former Secretary of the Army, has done a great job for the Army the past two years. I think they're just going to go right by him. Pompey, with his military background with Bolton here, is likely telling
the President we up to strike. So one more quick question, just if I'm advising the president, um, and tell me if this is idiotic or unprecedented, I uh say, to the your aunience, Hey, look we know where you shot that missile from. We're going to reduce it to rubble. We're gonna do it in six hours. Get your guys out of there. Does that ever happen, Yeah, that happens. That that does happen. It happens back channel. Um, it
absolutely does. And um that that's a possibility. Um, they could likely move civilians there though, and they could likely Um they could. I mean that's possible. It's it's not something that that that wouldn't be beneath him to do so. And then that will have to then then the decision, you know, we'll be will you know, we can watch down to you know, we can watch literally down to the name tags or the soldiers that they have on
the ground there is to see who specifically is there. Um, but we just have to see what we're dealing with. And it just gets back to I think the key right now as allies and whether we're going to go this alone or not. And that has a lot to do with Trump's personality and all these countries that were suffering internal, you know, challenges right now, the Brits with Brexit, the French and their internal struggles with Macron and his lack of popularity. And we all know that Germany is
not interested in doing anything to do. But if they all say no, no, no, no, no, no, don't escalate, this is all dumb, don't escalate, then do we really have to hit the brakes? I think we do. I don't think if we go this alone. It gets back to that thing about we lose the century. I think there's a little bit of there's a lot of truth in that. I do believe that we're gonna spread ourselves then and figure out there will be We've got to
fight another day. They'll they'll they'll likely be They'll likely be a fight with Uranians, you know, ten days. The next thing you know, they're enriching uranium. I thought that breakout was going to take six months. Uranians at ten days, because once the very second that the Iranians have this nuclear capability, that those those those f six teams in Tel Aviv are going to get scrambled and they're they're gonna go after that target. So these Rerailis are gonna
get involved, and then then then then what happens. Then we're totally different side of war there. Yikes, Mike clients military analysts for CBS and its Mike always a pleasure, Thanks a million from me. You got an excellent point there at the end. So uh so are in you know, works towards getting the bomb. Israel doesn't wait around for that, and then they don't care if France and Germany are
on board. I mean, and they don't wait for a certainty either, because they have the unique position of it's an overused phrase now an existential threat there they could actually be obliterated from the earth, right, they're so small it is, it is quite literally he was going to kill me, so I so choice, people are mad, people are whatever. Right you didn't agree. I don't have time to worry about that. Yeah, I'd be dead by now if i'd a waited for your approval, right exactly? So
yea it involved, that's a that's a sticky one. So so lines there at the end though, saying if if if Britain and France both getting trumps here and say nah no, no, no, no no no no, let's keep everybody keep cool, or beyond everybody keep cool, just stand down, and we probably back off. That's not a good look. And you know is everybody is reporting to the point of giving me a headache. Old John Bolton is probably getting in the presidency here saying we gotta whack him
and whack him hard. Otherwise they're the rest of the world's gonna walk all over us. Far Strong and Jetty